By Ovi
The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to September 2024. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico and China is used to provide a short term outlook.
World oil production decreased by 1,014 kb/d in September to 80,795 kb/d, green graph. The largest decreases came from Libya, 350 kb/d, and Canada, 244 kb/d. October’s World oil production is projected to increase by 1,170 kb/d to 81,965 kb/d. Of that increase, Libya is expected to contribute close to 550 kb/d as its internal politics/oil dispute is settled.
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2025. It uses the December 2024 STEO report, which is the same as used last month, along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. The January 2025 STEO is not available until January 14 and an updated chart will be published in the comments section.
For December 2025, production is projected to be 84,537 kb/d. The December 2025 oil production is essential flat relative to the November 2018 peak, a mere difference of 55 kb/d and well within the margin of error.
From October 2024 to December 2025, World oil production is estimated to increase by 2,572 kb/d. The majority of the increase starts in June 2025.
World September oil output without the US decreased by 857 kb/d to 67,591 kb/d. October’s production is expected to rebound by 921 kb/d to 68,512 kb/d.
The projection is forecasting that December 2025 crude output will be 70,837 kb/d. Note that the December 2025 output is 1,848 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 72,685 kb/d.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from October 2024 to December 2025 is forecast to increase by a total of 2,325 kb/d.
A Different Perspective on World Oil Production
Peak production in the Big 3 occurred in April 2020 at a rate of 34,739 kb/d. The peak was associated with a large production increase from Saudi Arabia. Post covid, production peaked at 34,010 kb/d in September 2022. The production decline since then is primarily due to cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
September’s Big 3 oil production decreased by 370 kb/d to 32,021 kb/d. Production in September was 1,989 kb/d lower than the September 2022 post pandemic high of 34,010 kb/d. Of the Big 3, the country with the largest September decrease was Saudi Arabia with a drop of 210 kb/d, see Table below.
Saudi Arabia along with other countries that were scheduled to reverse their cuts in October 2024 have now delayed them to April 2025 because of lower than expected China/World oil demand.
Production in the Remaining Countries had been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,930 kb/d. Output in December 2023 reached 50,526 kb/d, a new post covid high. However production began to fall in January 2024. September’s production decreased by 644 kb/d to 48,744 kb/d and is now down by 1,752 kb/d below December 2023.
This chart was first posted last month and shows the combined oil production from five Non-OPEC countries, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S. whose oil production is expected to grow. These five countries are often cited by OPEC and the IEA for being capable of meeting the increasing World oil demand for next year while OPEC withholds its oil from the market. For these five countries, production from April 2020 to August 2024 rose at an average rate of 1,199 kb/d/year as shown by the OLS orange line.
September has been added to the chart, down 316 kb/d to 22,649 kb/d.
The OLS lines have not been updated and will not be updated going forward unless there is a strong indication that production is rising.
The production up to December 2023 may be a situation where the past is not a good indicator of the future. In this case it may be more important to focus on what has happened to production after December 2023 rather than before. In both cases oil production has fallen since then.
Countries Ranked by Oil Production
Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In September 2024, these 13 countries produced 79.4% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 612 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis, production dropped by 653 kb/d. Note the large YoY production increase in Iran and the large drops in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Will the upcoming more stricter U.S. sanctions on Iran curb/slow that increasing trend?
September Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
September Non-OPEC oil production decreased by 303 kb/d to 52,421 kb/d. The largest decreases came from the U.S., Norway and Canada. Note that Non-OPEC production now includes Angola.
Using data from the December 2024 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period October 2024 to December 2025. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 55,036 kb/d in December 2025, which is 1,064 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 53,972 kb/d.
From December 2023 to December 2025, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 731 kb/d.
September’s Non-OPEC W/O US oil production dropped by 146 kb/d to 39,217 kb/d. October’s production is projected to rise by 432 kb/d to 39,649 kb/d.
From October 2024 to December 2025, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 1,756 kb/d. Canada, Guyana, Norway and Kazakhstan are expected to be major contributors to this increase. December 2025 production is projected to be 235 kb/d higher than December 2019.
Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production
Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. Note that Angola has been added to this table and that Oman has recently fallen below 1,000 kb/d.
September’s production decreased by 433 kb/d to 43,886 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a monthly production drop of 303 kb/d to 52,421 kb/d.
In September 2024, these 11 countries produced 83.7% of all Non-OPEC oil.
Angola’s September production decreased by 80 kb/d to 1,105 kb/d. Since early 2022 Angola’s production appears to have settled into a plateau phase between 1,100 kb/d and 1,200 kb/d.
Angola’s declining production appears to have stopped in 2021. According to this Article, Angola is looking to increase its production and attract more investments. The African oil producer plans to launch additional multi-year oil and gas licensing rounds from 2026.
The EIA reported that Brazil’s September production rose by 130 kb/d to 3,470 kb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production decreased in October to 3,269 kb/d and then rose by 41 kb/d in November to 3,310 kb/d. The pre-salt graph tracks Brazil’s crude oil graph. For November, pre-salt production increased by 32 kb/d to 2,631 kb/d.
Overall Brazilian production after November 2024 has to increase by 368 kb/d to exceed the November 2023 high. However production has been very erratic since the November 2023 high. The December OPEC report states that two new floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) platforms came online in November. It also mentions operational issues and slow ramp-ups in several offshore platforms continue to be an issue. November does show a small increase in production.
Canada’s production decreased by 244 kb/d in September to 4,612 kb/d. The decrease is primarily due to wild fires in the oil sands area around Fort McMurray.
According to this Report, “There are currently 17 active wildfires in the Fort McMurray Forest Area. Currently, nine are being held and eight are under control. “
The EIA reported China’s September oil output decreased by 45 kb/d to 4,154 kb/d.
The China National Bureau of Statistics reported production for October and November. October production rose to 4,184 kb/d and November added 13 kb/d to 4,197 kb/d, red markers.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s oil output increased by 137 kb/d in September to 1,855 kb/d.
Kazakhstan’s recent pre-salt crude oil production, as reported by Argus, has been added to the chart. In October pre-salt crude production dropped by 120 kb/d to 1,340 kb/d and then rebounded by 110 kb/d in November to 1,450 kb/d. December production dropped to 1,440 kb/d.
Kazakhstan’s OPEC production target is 1,470 kb/d. At 1,440 kb/d, Kazakhstan is 30 kb/d under their target. According to this Article it is not clear how Kazakhstan will meet its quota target when Chevron starts increasing production at its Tengiz field.
This Article claims that Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy has lowered its 2025 oil production target by one million tons as part of the country’s commitment to meeting its obligations under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) agreements.
According to the EIA, Mexico’s September output rose by 11 kb/d to at 1,873 kb/d.
In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.
In earlier reports, the EIA would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex report. However for July and August, the condensate contribution increased to 90 kb/d and for September it has increased again to 124 kb/d. Not clear if this is the result of better communications with Pemex officials.
For September and October, 124 kb/d has been added to the Pemex production to estimate Mexico’s October and November C + C production, red markers. Note that Mexico’s production, according to Pemex, has continued to fall every month since May 2023, except for one month.
Since May 2023, Mexico’s total liquids production has been falling at an average rate of close 12.8 kb/d/mth or 154 kb/d/yr. Just considering the Pemex production for the last four months, production has dropped at the rate of 25.3 kb/d/mth or 304 kb/d/yr.
The EIA reported Norway’s September production decreased by 181 kb/d to 1,622 kb/d. The decrease was due to maintenance and a major power failure.
Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that October rebounded by 181 kb/d to 1,803 kb/d and November dropped to 1,754 kb/d, red markers.
The Norway Petroleum Directorship stated that November’s oil production was 3.2% more than forecast.
Oman’s production had risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, September’s output dropped by 1 kb/d to 991 kb/d.
Oman produces a lot of condensate. The OPEC MOMR reports that crude production in September was 765 kb/d, 226 kb/d lower than the EIA’s C + C.
The EIA had been reporting flat output of 1,322 kb/d for Qatar since early 2022. However the current September update has revised down all of the previous production data. Qatar’s Saptember output was reported again to be 1,322 kb/d.
The EIA reported Russia’s September C + C production dropped by 2 kb/d to 9,677 kb/d and was down by 501 kb/d from last year.
Using data from Argus Media reports, Russian crude production is shown from May 2023 to December 2024. For December 2024, Argus reported Russian crude production was 8,970 kb/d, unchanged from October and November, blue markers. Adding 8% to Argus’ December crude production provides a C + C production estimate of 9,688 kb/d for Russia, which is a proxy for the Pre-War Russian Ministry estimate, red markers.
According to Argus, Russian crude production of 8,970 kb/d is in compliance with their OPEC target of 8,980 kb/d.
In pre-war times, the Russia Energy Ministry production estimate used to be 400 kb/d higher than the EIA estimate. For September, the Argus proxy estimate is essentially the same as the EIA’s estimate.
This US production chart is the same as the one published last week in the US update post. The STEO portion of the graphs could not be updated since the January STEO will not be available till next week.
U.S. October oil production increased by 259 kb/d to 13,457 kb/d. The largest increases came from the GOM, 191 kb/d and Texas, 55 kb/d.
Changing Net Decline Rates
Above is the oil production from those countries not included in the Big 13 table. For these 217 countries, the net decline rate from January 2010 to January 2020 was 558 kb/d/yr. However starting in 2021 it appears the production decline in these countries has essentially stopped.
Since drilling is constantly offsetting/masking the “real natural decline rate”, I am saying that the red OLS line represents the difference between the yearly production increase minus the natural decline, i.e. the net decline rate.
What has changed? Looking more closely at production from all 230 countries three stand out. See next chart.
This chart shows the oil production from Argentina, Guyana and Venezuela. After a steady decline from 2016 to 2020, production in these three countries began to rise in mid 2020. From August 2020 to September 2024, production in Argentina grew by 260 kb/d, in Guyana by 561 kb/d and in Venezuela 520 kb/d.
An OLS line for production from August 2020 to September 2024 estimates that production rose at the rate of 311 kb/d/yr. Making the rough assumption that there is no decline from mid 2020 for those 217 countries not in the Big 13 implies that the net decline for those countries not part of the Big 13 plus Argentina, Guyana and Venezuela is close to 311 kb/d/yr.