118 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, March 27, 2023”

  1. Goldman Sachs on copper . They forecast inventory to exhaust by August . Any thoughts ?

    1. It would seem that copper prices would increase if the forecast is accurate. It also may be that there are stocks that exist which are difficult to account for as is the case for World oil stocks.

      1. Dennis , there is fraud going worldwide in the commodities market . How deep is anybody’s guess . I had a long time ago posted how the same stock of aluminum was rehypothecated at the LME , The LME data is no good , just as EIA . Here is the latest . Stones received instead of nickel . I am ready to bet that the stocks of copper as reported are much lower . I hope I am wrong , they don’t call it ” Doctor Copper ” because it wears a white coat and carries a stethoscope around it’s neck . 🙂
        https://www.mining.com/web/lme-finds-some-nickel-underlying-its-contracts-is-missing/
        Australia caught with it’s pants down .
        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622

        1. Hi HiH,
          There very well could be lots of fraud in metal stocks around the world, but your Australia link has nothing to do with fraud in terms of stocks. Perth mint sells its gold as 99.99% pure. It was producing gold that was 99.996% pure, so kinda giving away 0.006% gold. It (stupidly for its reputation since not many people pay attention to the whole story) decided to add some silver, making sure it was still 99.99% pure gold. Again stupidly, the mint sold a lot of this stuff to the Shanghai gold exchange, which, differently from the rest of the world, not only requires 99.99% gold, requires less than 0.005% silver. So, in Shanghai, it doesn’t met specification. Sold anywhere else, no problems! So it’s definitely a scandal and a cover-up in terms of sales to Shanghai, but its got nothing to do with the actual amount of gold.
          Cheers, Phil (in Australia, could you guess?)

    2. Same story other places too in the financial news.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/there-isnt-enough-copper-in-the-world-shortage-could-last-until-2030.html

      Copper is just a very useful resource, same as oil. If the metal turns out to be a bottle neck, we just have to organise around it accordingly. But just as the case with oil, a few disruptions turned around (especially in Chile and Peru for copper) and some of the newer mines going into super exploitation mode could change the picture in the short run. But in order for that to happen, maybe the price of copper must go a bit higher.

      1. In Sweden we have a better idea, use it to encapsulate and bury nuclear waste at a roughly 1:1 ratio, brilliant :/

        1. Correction, I misremembered, after checking the figures it´s actually more like 2:1, 7400 kg cu for 3600 kg of BWR waste in one capsule, for PWRs it´s even worse…
          So with 6000 KBS-3 capsules Sweden will be wasting 44 400 tons of copper, isn´t nuclear power great?
          For reference, that´s with 6 plants currently running, 12 at peak in the late 90s. Do the math for global needs if everyone uses the same method, but I guess most will use cheaper ways.
          https://skb.se/publication/2114696/R-10-40.pdf

    4. copper prices have remained resilient as a non-precious metal / industrial input. Most industrial metals are very aware of the global economic downturn. Copper is only down 13% YoY and is neutral on trend/trade bases , which is pretty good. I certainly wouldn’t be long copper based on goldman sachs or long term supply issues when global economy is teetering on the brink.

    2. The biggest story of our times-
      ” most loss of agricultural land is due to degradation of its biophysical status:
      increasing aridity, soil erosion, soil nutrient loss, soil salinization, soil carbon decline and
      vegetation decline. The FAO estimates that globally the ‘biophysical status’ of 38% of the Earth’s
      land surface is declining. Putting that 5.7 billion hectares into perspective, it is an area equivalent
      to the land surface of Russia, Canada, China, USA, Brazil and Australia combined. Such land
      degradation has already reduced the productivity of about a quarter of all the land surface on our
      planet. Depending on the data source, the phenomenon of ‘peak land’ for agriculture occurred as
      early as 1990 at 4.28 billion hectares….”

      Take away some of the fossil fuel inputs and we are on high bluff with undercut foundation.
      Keep in mind that land degraded for agricultural purposes is also degraded for all other purposes, such as forest, wildlife habitat, and watershed.

      Its a dead on report.

    3. the wealthy are certainly hedging for this:

      “Bill and Melinda Gates — prior to their divorce — accumulated roughly 270,000 acres of farmland in less than a decade. Amazon founder and chairman Jeff Bezos has amassed 420,000 acres in recent years”

      https://www.yahoo.com/video/billionaires-jeff-bezos-bill-gates-175500099.html

      Too bad someone will need to farm it and there will need to be a distribution system in place for that “investment” to pay off. this is a good example of how the wealthy are actively in the way of humanity’s well-being: the wealthy understand the value of farmland, but can’t bring society any closer to food security and a healthy relationship with the land.

  3. From the Guardian …’World ‘population bomb’ may never go off as feared, finds study’ – ‘… human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast…’ – ‘ ….commissioned by the Club of Rome, projects that on current trends the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then decline rapidly…’ – ‘forecasts are good news for the global environment. Once the demographic bulge is overcome, pressure on nature and the climate should start to ease, along with associated social and political tensions…’ and I thought there was a problem…./s/

      1. We need to get back to our historical population (over the last 250,000 years) of 1-5 million, with a near extinction about 65000 years ago.
        Of course, we had better ecosystems then.

  4. But the Tonga volcano increased the water vapor in the Stratosphere by 10 percent. We talk about greenhouse gases increasing by one or two one-hundredths of a percent causing global climate change, and here we had a volcano that increased the water content of the stratosphere by 10 percent

    Read More: Could This Montana Winter Weather be Due to an Undersea Volcano? | https://newstalkkgvo.com/montana-winter-weather-undersea-volcano/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

    An opposing article:

    https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming

    1. Depends on where in the stratosphere it goes — does it get sucked into a jet-stream or stay in the equatorial QBO? Water vapor is also a condensing gas, meaning it will equilibrate with it’s environment relatively quickly, in contrast to a non-condensing gas such as CO2.

    1. I haven’t yet watched this session.

      But sometimes a wasteful and inefficient process can still be highly practical and profitable taken all around.
      The presumption is that we’re going to overbuild renewable generation capacity to at least double the needed nameplate in order to account for nights, low winds, seasons of the year etc.

      This may or may not mean we will have electricity out the ying yang available to manufacture hydrogen via electrolysis.
      And having this hydrogen available MAY mean we can use it to offset declining oil and natural gas production thereby preventing potentially catastrophic economic problems.

      I don’t think anybody really knows for sure if we will be able to build enough batteries to run the world wide transportation system, or if we can, how much they will cost.

      Can we pump expensive hydrogen into old oil wells or mines or otherwise store it to generate electricity at power plants CHEAPER than we can build out EVEN MORE wind and solar generating capacity?

      Right now battery farms are a BIG THING, mostly because it’s possible to use them to meet peak demand for a few hours at times when demand is very high, and generation capacity is inadequate.

      Feeding stored hydrogen into gas turbines at power plants could mean we don’t have to build so many wind and solar farms, etc, to meet peak demand when the sun and wind aren’t getting the job done.

      It matters not at all that a solar farm captures only a minor percentage of the energy of sunlight. Efficiency is a bullshit issue in this and many other cases. What MATTERS is the COST of the electricity so produced.

      If it’s cheap enough ( it is, and it’s getting cheaper) going with wind and solar power is a no brainer decision.

      Ditto hydrogen.

      Trimming ten percent off the demand for oil will have a substantial effect in terms of lowering the price of oil. Ditto gas.

      Subsidizing hydrogen to the extent it is used to a substantial extent for running trucks and power plants, etc, MIGHT actually save all of us, collectively, a LOT of money and pain.

      1. Yes, I had much of the same thinking on this.
        However, after listening to someone who has been around the bush a dozen times on hydrogen,
        I came away thinking that using hydrogen should be a last ditch choice since
        the thermodynamics/net return
        are so very unfavorable…kind of like corn for ethanol.

        Its seems that the global industry is on a mad rush to learn this lesson the hard way,
        spending huge amount of money and time to arrive at a marginal place.
        The (lost) opportunity cost is immense.
        Effort better spent elsewhere.

        If you do have the chance to listen, I’d appreciate hearing your feedback on it.

        1. Hickory:
          You can take every word this guy says about hydrogen as the absolute truth. I have considered that it would be best to generate the electricity wherever, transport it as electricity to the industrial site that absolutely requires hydrogen and generate the hydrogen at that point to minimize the storage and transport issues( much as is done in the petrochemical and fertilizer industries now). It is also probable that storing hydrogen as ammonia or maybe methanol will be more practical than trying to store it as elemental hydrogen .
          You are right that it is a marginal place, but in a world of depleted fossil fuels it is the only chemical avenue to some of the items that are key to our present industrial/technological civilization, certainly not an option for sustaining BAU, and unfortunately existing reserves of fossil fuels will not allow for a graceful decline of population to a level consistent with what might be supportable at something resembling our present lifestyle.

  6. Gunga: Response to Mike from the previous thread so it didn’t get lost. Mike, sorry… gotta keep this rollin….
    Your comments are first in quotes (no edits made)… my comments are following paragraph by paragraph..

    Start: Mike
    “It would be helpful if you big royalty owners would pick a specific example I used above and address IT, refuture IT, rather than rail on me in a feeble attempt at making a point. Take leveraged oversupply for instance; here we are, once again, with <$2 natgas and on the express elevator down because the tight oil sector can get off the drilling hamster wheel. Google the definition of insanity."

    -Gunga: Where did you get info that I am a big royalty owner? I am a modest size, but I worked hard 25 years to consolidate a modest mineral portfolio that keeps my world afloat. Why are you so bitter to royalty owners? This is not your best writing, by the way.

    -Mike: "I am a student of oil and gas history and at no time in that long history has there been anything remotely similar to mass manufacturing shale wells on 660 acre spacing (330's!) using borrowed capital for 150% ROI's. The decline in that shit is staggering. No great oil finder I have read about or researched would have voluntarily dove off into that shale stuff."

    -Gunga: So, you…. the student of history…. forgot about the 1 acre spacing excess of the East Texas Oil Field almost 100 years ago? Yea, that was efficient use of reserves. Shale development excesses are nothing new, it’s simply part of the process.

    -Mike: "I've had many failures in my exploration career, of course, and lost personal money and investment money for my WI partners. Most of that was related to wandering around undrilled areas, taking risks, and looking for new stuff. I learned from every minute of it. So what?"

    -Gunga: Great. You just proved to me you’re the same as the shale producers…. first producing 330 when later they find out 660 is better. Why demonize them for their scientific method when yours failed too? It’s easy to condemn the shale world when you already know the history, now isn’t it?

    -Mike: "Its MY industry as well and it has always been complacent about changes, it is quite content with doing the same 'ol dumb stuff over and over again because it worked in the past and it was indeed, "normal." Life changes, oil and gas is becoming more difficult to find and much less profitable to extract. The oil industry needs to change also, quickly. And it needs to quit lying to the American public about abundance and long term sustainability. So you can imply I am "demonizing" the tight oil sector but it seems to be doing a pretty good job of that on its own."

    -Gunga: The above seems more like an advertisement or a political rant, so I am out on commentary here.

    1. Longa, I think this is on the wrong thread.

      I am not bitter toward royalty owners, I am a royalty owner but not dependent it on that to make a living and therefore not biased by it. You are it seems.

      My opinion as to how the tight oil sector is always shooting itself in the foot seems to have rubbed you the wrong way. Here’s a good example of that very thing:
      https://www.ft.com/content/c3baf69f-41fc-42ea-b13a-5ef6f546e143
      The sector has lost tens of billions of dollars over the past decade through no hedging or poor hedging; lets see how 2023 works out for them.

      I am not “demonizing” the tight oil sector, that is dumb. I don’t agree with its business model, how that amazing resource has been grossly mismanaged, how that sector lies constantly about sustainability and I particularly do NOT like how 50% of all US tight oil is exported to foreign countries at significant price discounts, simply to get rid of it. My country is going to need every barrel of those exports back someday very soon.

      East Texas Field is a perfect example of how left to its own accord, private enterprise often does stupid things with other people’s money, in the case of East Texas, private investment money. The TRRC fixed that mess and regulated the industry properly until the tight oil phenomena came along, then abandoned most regulations completely for the sake of money and votes. The tight oil sector now whines like little girls about having to fix methane leaks. Apparently it is above that sort of thing and the TRRC appears to agree.

      History shows that East Texas Field was overdrilled by 30,000 wells and before it was flooded, severally pressure depleted. The shale oil sector didn’t learn from THAT, did it? GOR is going up as fast as WOR is, while well productivity is going down in all US tight oil basins.

      I was, am, nothing like shale producers. I always stood on my own financial feet.

      If you want to change people’s minds about things like oil exports, or flaring, or 125% rates of return on $12MM investments, pick one of those and provide your OWN opinions. You are NOT going to change my mind or my desire to offer a different perspective on the lie of abundance or that Drill Baby Drill is actually good for America… not when 50% of the stuff is exported, no sir.

      1. Thanks Mike. I agree at current oil and natural gas prices the tight oil and shale gas production should decrease as it is not profitable to drill and complete wells at these prices. We will see if tight oil producers learn from past errors, if so we should see a drop in completion rates in the shale plays.

  7. The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it

    Nobody wants what’s coming, so nobody wants to see what’s coming.

    On the eve of the first civil war, the most intelligent, the most informed, the most dedicated people in the United States could not see it coming. Even when Confederate soldiers began their bombardment of Fort Sumter, nobody believed that conflict was inevitable. The north was so unprepared for the war they had no weapons.

    In Washington, in the winter of 1861, Henry Adams, the grandson of John Quincy Adams, declared that “not one man in America wanted the civil war or expected or intended it”. South Carolina senator James Chestnut, who did more than most to bring on the advent of the catastrophe, promised to drink all the blood spilled in the entire conflict. The common wisdom at the time was that he would have to drink “not a thimble”.

    The United States today is, once again, headed for civil war, and, once again, it cannot bear to face it. The political problems are both structural and immediate, the crisis both longstanding and accelerating. The American political system has become so overwhelmed by anger that even the most basic tasks of government are increasingly impossible.

    Two things are happening at the same time. Most of the American right have abandoned faith in government as such. Their politics is, increasingly, the politics of the gun. The American left is slower on the uptake, but they are starting to figure out that the system which they give the name of democracy is less deserving of the name every year.

    An incipient illegitimacy crisis is under way, whoever is elected in 2022, or in 2024. According to a University of Virginia analysis of census projections, by 2040, 30% of the population will control 68% of the Senate. Eight states will contain half the population. The Senate malapportionment gives advantages overwhelmingly to white, non– college educated voters. In the near future, a Democratic candidate could win the popular vote by many millions of votes and still lose. Do the math: the federal system no longer represents the will of the American people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/next-us-civil-war-already-here-we-refuse-to-see-it

    1. HUNTINGTONBEACH —

      “Nobody wants what’s coming, so nobody wants to see what’s coming.”

      Thanks for posting this. When talking to my neighbours, I feel the same about climate change. New SUVs and F-350s sprout like dandylions. Beef production only limited by available land. One woman I know bought an EV but she she useses her big pickup for most travel.

      1. Hi Doug, I had the same thought when I read that sentence. But the truth is the general population are just clueless of our current political and climate situation. They either don’t have the interest or time living in the moment. What I can assure you is that 20 year old sitting stopped at the turned green light reading their cell phone. Are not reading your comments here at POB and educating themselves. Maybe you should try Tik Tok breathing tailpipe exhaust and your visit to the ER.

        A couple of weeks ago I ask a few left wing friends if they were environmentalist. I got a yes from them. I followed up with what causes climate change. Some didn’t know and one said humans. Then I asked what do you to fight against climate change. My favorite answer, after a few seconds he said I put my coffee grounds in my flower beds. You see, we’re going to be OK.

    2. Indeed HB.
      “In the near future, a Democratic candidate could win the popular vote by many millions of votes and still lose.” And as you know this already happened (by 2.9 million votes) in 2016 when Trump lost the popular vote but became president.
      Its a weak democracy, with uninformed voters.
      Sure seems like sunset to me. KKK gathering at the edge of the woods

    3. The last time there was a school shooting in the United Kingdom was 26 years ago.

      (26 years ago, a gunman entered
      Dunblane Primary School in Scotland,
      killing 16 kids and a teacher. The UK
      govt responded by enacting tight gun
      control legislation. In the 9400 days
      since, there have been a total of O
      school shootings in the UK.)

      2. Certainly the gun culture is a central part of the problem but I have to agree with one aspect of the right wing agrument: more strict ownership laws alone will not eliminate gun deaths.
        There are, I think, several reasons for that. First, a large fraction of the gun related crimes in the country are with stolen guns. As long as there are so many legal guns in the country even a small percentage of those being stolen is a big problem. A lot of those guns are going to be pointed at innocent people. But how do you get all of these legal gun owners to realize that the very existence of their guns is a problem?
        I think the existence of all these guns and the attention they get feeds into the high level of mental health problems that American culture generates. There is a lot more alienation and disappointment here than in other industrial countries. Virtually all of the mass shootings we see are perpetrated by individuals that are described as “loners” or “failures” as individuals who do not have a comfortable place in society. Using a gun to take their anger out on the symbols of society that represent the source of their pain has a certain logic. Use the very symbol of power to punish not the individual victims but the society itself.

        2. Eliminating gun deaths is not a realistic goal anymore than eliminating crime, terrorism, home burglaries or alcohol addiction. Reducimg gun deaths is a realistic goal. That right wing argument is a diversionary tactic.

      3. It seems we are focusing more on the guns and not the person behind the gun. The Second Amendment states in part “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,…”

        My son and his wife were going to attend the Aurora, Colorado theater presentation of “The Dark Knight Rises” except she was tied up in a traffic jam. They could have well ended up dead that night. The shooter was mentally unstable and could not have been part of “A well regulated Militia..”. A number of mass shootings can be attributed to unstable people. Whether mentally ill or driven by the what they read and hear, there needs to be an examination of the causes. What can be done? Are our government representatives doing any triage type of investigations?

        1. My take is ‘well regulated militia’ gets us the various National Guard and Military Reserve units. Not operator chic cosplay dweebs with the fantasy of being Tier 1 CT but with none of the risk or responsibility of doing it as a job. Fuckin’ clowns.

          Pro tip- the PNW militia dweebs running plate carriers but no plates usually have felony convictions. Otherwise they’d have plates.

          Hats off to Nashville responders. See the body cam footage if interested. Probably a couple of gratuitous pistol shots at the end, but not out of bounds. They never took a step back; needing a shove isn’t a sin.

          1. Understood. But many of those dweebs have had military service and have seen what and read about what people without arms can go through. Ask the Jews in Hilter’s Germany, the Ukrainians under attack by Russia, Various people under Stalin, or what would have happened if Trump had succeeded on January 6th. I’d hate to think about what would have happened if he did succeed.

            When I arrived at Clark Air Base in the Philipines, Marcos had declared martial law. We got off the plane and saw militia in civvies everywhere carrying WWII weapons of all types, My crew and I were unarmed. We walked throughout the base and never heard a shot. I mentioned this to a sergeant who had been stationed there for some time and lived off base. My observation was correct he never heard any shots. But he said they used machetes instead… Still, the discipline was there (or else).

            He then went on to say he lived off base with a gal. One night, he was awakened to see an arm coming over a window sill trying to unlock the window. He took his machette and liberated the lower part of the potential felon’s arm from his body. He called the “local police” to which he paid a monthly stipend for police services. They came and said it was a arm and that was it. They walked out with the arm presumably to follow the blood trail.

            He also mentioned that if he didn’t pay the stipend, he was not sure if the person coming through the window would have been a member of the local police.

            It’s not an easy world to live in. Some of those dweebs realize that.

          2. “It seems we are focusing more on the guns and not the person behind the gun.”
            Clearly if American society wanted to take firearm deaths and injuries seriously Congress would fund a bipartisan study of the causes and develop a program to reduce the violence. I don’t understand the stance of Democrats to focus on gun control when there are obvious other remedies that are needed in concert with reducing the number and design of weapons that are too prevalent here.
            But elected Republicans are the biggest impediment to reducing the violence.
            Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said on Wednesday that he believes lawmakers have gone “about as far as we’re going to” on gun control legislation following a shooting at a Nashville elementary school this week.

            “We pass laws, and then they really have no effect. You got to deal with what’s at the heart of this, it’s evil. Some people would say demon possession,” said Tennessee Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN).

            Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) called discussions of proposed legislation “premature.” When a reporter pointed out that there have been more than a hundred mass shootings in the first three months of the year, Thune reiterated that “it’s just premature to talk about it.”

            Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said earlier on Tuesday that it would be too “emotional” to discuss banning weapons like the AR-15.”If you’re going to talk about the AR-15, we’re talking politics now,” Byrons said. “Let’s not get into emotion because emotion feels good. But emotion doesn’t solve problems.”

            Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), whose district houses the elementary school where the shooting took place, deflected questions about his potential support for legislation banning AR-15’s telling reporters that lawmakers should instead focus on “the real issue” in regards to the shooting–mental health.

            What am I missing here? What do these people value if not children?

            1. “What do these people value if not children?”

              Guns, money, cult religion, cell phones, fentanyl, American flag, sex, Trump, Starbucks, Fox, football, Texas and of course daycare.

            2. if American society wanted to take firearm deaths and injuries seriously

              it isn’t just firearms, unfortunately. Life is cheap in Repubican America. Traffic deaths are also insanely high, and nobody cares. Tens of millions have inadequate health coverage, leading to tens of thousands of premature deaths a year. State legislatures routinely ban basic healthcare, especially for women. Drug overdoses are through the roof, but nobody cares enough to do anything.

              As a result, life expectancy is falling, even though it continues to rise in almost all the rest of the world.

            3. As Ali says life is cheap in red america… and cheaper in the rest of the world but that is another story..
              some rounded numbers

              traffic related 32,000 (CDC) 2022
              cigarettes 480,000 (CDC) estimated early deaths per year
              all health related who knows…
              guns 24,000 suicides (Pew) 2022
              23,000 non-suicides
              20,000 murders
              700 mass shootings
              1,000 accidental and non-determined
              1,000 law enforcement (probably an undercount – reporting problem)
              (2020 is the last year finalized reports are available – these are relatively good estimates for 2022)
              in a more enlightened society gun suicide would be much less prominent ….discussion for another day..

            4. >>Clearly if American society wanted to take firearm deaths and injuries seriously Congress would fund a bipartisan study of the causes and develop a program to reduce the violence. <<

              Amen

              But our press is more about generating profits through "conflicts". All you have to do is look at Fox News and how they treated Trump and the Dominion machine maker to realize Fox was more interested in creating "controversy" to enhance shareholder and corporate incomes.

            1. Pardon my intrustion… what he is talking about is
              Bullet-proof vests are ranked by the type of bullet they MAY protect against.
              Levels are 1 through 4. Level 1 is obsolete. In theory 2 will protect against most? pistols and the AK, 3 will protect against the AR, and 4 against the 30-06. (I have seen the AR penetrate 1/4 inch (soft?) steel). Level 2 is usually soft and conforms to the body – like the police normally wear. 3 can be found in both soft and rigid forms. 4 is presently rigid. Rigid is solid plates in the vest, either 1/4 steel or ceramic. In the case of rigid plates, you buy the vest (plate carrier) – it has pockets for plates front and rear and pretty similar in appearance to the level 2 stuff you see on tv – and then you specify the type of plates you want. It is possible to buy the vest without plates, and I believe some states restrict the sale of bullet-proof vests… so he is saying some of the individuals parading around in bullet-proof vests are wearing plate vests without plates in them. Such a vest would not stop a rock…. TMI i know….

      4. No only was the Dunblane school shooting the last, but it was also the first.

    4. Of course nobody wants to think of a second civil war. Those things tend to be untidy messes. Plus, the way things are going, in the aftermath of a second civil war, corporations will write the next constitution (and not for our benefit.)

      Fighting a second civil war will create the need to fight a third.

      1. Yes the only way a new constitution could be agreed upon is if one side capitulates entirely. But it’s not clear to me how such a proposed civil war would be fought, much less won. Apparently by trying to take down the grid with gunfire and explosives and allowing the cities to rot. Meanwhile after yet another school shooting the legislature here in North Carolina took some time to LOOSEN gun requirements in response. Apparently the goal is to kill us all and let God sort us out.

        1. Let’s not forget that between 1861 and 1865 more American military personnel died than in all of the rest of our over 250 years of war COMBINED.
          Civil war isn’t something to be discussed lightly.

          1. More people in the US have died of Covid than all wars combined, in under 3 years.

            1. The numbers are pretty close.
              There were about 675,000 that died in the post WW1 Spanish flu epidemic, a much larger fraction of the population. Neither fact detracts from the point. A civil war is nothing to bandy about because your guy lost an election.
              Equally one shouldn’t be proposing superstitious nonsense about pandemics, such as suggesting UV light or Clorex injections or pretending that the nation’s medical experts are enemies.

            2. A civil war is nothing to bandy about because your guy lost an election.
              Guy?
              Jill Stein was the last Pres candidate I voted for.
              The narrow and ignorant view is quite amazing——-

      2. Of course nobody wants to think of a second civil war.

        Putin wants to think of an American civil war, and wants you to think about it too.

        1. And so does Fox news and the cult of fundamentalists and authoritarians acolytes [republican voters] who think that they can profit from great disruption
          of this democratic experiment.

    5. I think a better analogy is the 30 years war 1600’s. Loss of faith in institutions – Catholicism – check. Climate change – “Little Ice Age” – check. Conspiracy theories abounding – Rosicrucians – check. A weakening empire – Holy Roman Empire / Habsburgs – check. Popularization of new social media that radically changed the way people interact – printing press – check. I don’t know as there is a clear enough dividing line (Protestants vs Catholics) to actually drive a conflict, but as the above conditions exacerbate maybe something will emerge? In the 30 years war it was the opposite – Martin Luther broke the world in 1517, but it took 100 years for that to lead to the Defenstration of Prague. Anyone who claims to know where this will go and how it will “end” is probably delusional. I heard someone say recently that the world is “always ending” in the sense that one way of society being organized is always ending and a new way is always incipient. when those phase shifts ACTUALLY happen and what the results are/will be are pretty hard to predict (even by D. Coyne standards). but I think we are A LOT closer to the END of this societal organization than the “beginning”.

      1. “Loss of faith in institutions – Catholicism – check.”

        Well, thank goodness for that!
        Enough slaughter and ethnic cleansing of non-conforming cultures (tens of millions human beings).
        Its about a 1000 years late for people to grow up and completely abandon the fundamentalist authoritarian male fabricated-history pre-science ideology.

    1. Hightrekker
      Or is the USA just leading the world in trends again? When the wheels fall off the world economic wagon, life expectancy will suffer and the comparative will be which country is going down the slowest. What happens when the complex cocktail of drugs used to control HIV is no longer available? Superbugs resistant to all antibiotics become common and there are no new antibiotics in the development stage?
      When I was young, if someone died in their late sixties people would say “Well, he lived a full life”. Three score and ten was the gold standard.

      1. It’s more than leadership in a global decline.
        Americans do live in a less healthy environment and the numbers have been available for a long time. What you don’t hear as much about, but is the essence of the story, is that it is the poor in America that are terribly worse off that in other industrial societies. Rich and upper middle class Americans are doing just fine, thank you.
        If you compare Americans living in the lowes quartile of the economic strata their actual health statitstics are more like El Salvador than IEurope. I live in the only industrial society where people file for bankruptcy and lose everything because of medical bills. No one in Europe worrys about the cost of insulin. One study found that men and women in the top 1 percent of income were expected to live 14.6 and 10.1 years longer respectively than men and women in the bottom 1 percent.

        1. JJHMAN
          I cannot dispute any of your statements, but those factors were already present before the decline started and probably only have a minor impact on the decline or where it goes from here. I personally expect a small recovery in life expectancy in all countries in the near term, and then probably a bumpy plateau analogous to the crude oil plateau until something breaks.
          I certainly appreciate living in a country with partially socialized medical care, but with an economy averaging two percent annual average growth and medical costs rising at five or six percent a year it does not take a genius to figure out where it is all headed.

          1. Old Chemist:
            There are several interacting causes and effects in the health statistics. I can’t pretend to keep up with them all. However if the overall decline in civiization that seems to be a common theme here manifests itself then clearly life expectancy around the world will decline with it.
            Starting behind the game, as the US clearly is, will not help in our ability to manage what is coming and the cost issue you describe is indeed going to play a part even before world-wide catastrophe becomes a new normal

      3. The health care system in the US is well and truly broken mostly as a result of the principle of “for profit” health care. The rest of the developed world is much better but, the corrupting influence of for profit corporations is affecting their systems as well.

        The pharmaceutical and health product industries spent a record $372 million plus lobbying Congress and federal agencies in 2022, outspending every other industry and employing 1,834 registered lobbyists, more than three lobbyists for each member of the Congress. More than half of these lobbyists previously worked in government positions before joining the private sector, a phenomenon known as “revolving door” hiring. Why does that matter? The public health response to the covid pandemic has exposed a lot.

        In 2020, the year before the vaccines were rolled out, Pfizer generated annual gross profits of US$33.167B (billion) on revenues of US$$41.651B, increases of 0.96% and 1.82% respectively from 2019. In 2021 Pfizer’s annual revenue shot up 95.16% over 2020 levels to $81.288B with gross profits increasing by 52.16% to $50.467B. For 2022 Pfizer’s annual revenue rose a further 23.43% to a record $100.33B while gross profits rose by 30.75% to $65.986B. Over the two years of the global mass vaccination project Pfizer realised more than four times the revenue that it made in 2020 and more than three times the gross profit for 2020. The total amount spent by the entire pharmaceutical and health product industries on lobbying in 2022 represents a mere 0.37% of the revenue of a Pfizer alone or 0.74% of Pfizer’s 2022 profits.

        Before I am accused of being an anti-vaxxer, why was the Chinese (Sinovac) vaccine more widely used? Reports suggest that it is at least as effective and possibly safer than the mrna vaccines offered in the west. The bigger question though is why did the WHO persist in telling people that there were no effective treatments and measures that could improve outcomes with the disease? Did they really believe that? The WHO published an article on their web site, titled “UTTAR PRADESH Going the last mile to stop COVID-19” dated 7 May 2021 that, outlined a highly successful project that resulted in a 99% reduction in new covid cases from the peak of the delta wave in late April 2021 to late June 2021. This happened in just two months, at a time when the vaccination campaign in India had barely started. The article did not disclose the low cost supplements (vitamin C, vitamin D and zinc) and repurposed drugs that were distributed in “medicine kits” as part of the effort. Instead of spreading the success of the Uttar Pradesh project across the globe, the WHO buried it on their web site. Why was it not reported in the mainstream western media?

        Then there is the question of vitamin D. Multiple studies were done on vitamin D (see c19early.org/dmeta.html ) with the overwhelming majority showing that people with sufficient levels of vitamin D had a massively lower risk of severe outcomes. These results started showing up early in the pandemic with the result that in the UK, Compelling Evidence on Vitamin D status and severity of Covid-19 symptoms prompts MP David Davis to speak out (October 13, 2020). To date there has been no mass media campaign to inform the public about the benefits of having sufficient levels of vitamin D. Could it be that there are no mega profits to be reaped from manufacturing vitamin D? After all, depending on where you live, you can get more than enough vitamin D from sensible sun exposure (see Dr. Holick Addresses the UK Consensus on Vitamin D and Sunlight. Dr. Michael F Holick has researched vitamin D for his entire career, starting in the early seventies)

        There is also this story reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on Dec 2, 2020, COVID patient with sepsis makes ‘remarkable’ recovery following megadose of vitamin C. I found it because I had a scripted Google search looking for news including “covid-19” and “vitamin C”. Had I not been actively searching for it, I might never have seen it. This story was not picked up by any major news organization in the world with the only other outlets that mentioned it being Sky News Australia and the UNTV network in the Philippines. Why has this story largely been ignored? No mega profits?

        It appears to me that the practice of health care is being driven by the interests of drug companies rather than an altruistic interest the health of the public at large. For those that are uncomfortable with the ideas and stories I present, I can only offer you sympathy for the western media bubble in which you exist. You should probably check out Noam Chomsky’s work on the Propaganda Model and Manufacturing Consent. NOT brought to you by Pfizer.

        1. Islandboy —

          You said: “It appears to me that the practice of health care is being driven by the interests of drug companies rather than an altruistic interest the health of the public at large.”

          I agree (and so does my doctor). Amazing eh?

          1. My 2 cents

            Doug, based on your posts you come across as a person who is very pessimistic about government and corporate action on GHG emissions and very skeptical about getting renewables replacing FF and getting us to net zero. But so trusting of the government and corporations being ethical and honest regarding healthcare. Which is odd to me.

            islandboy, you are pretty much exactly the opposite of Doug. Based on your posts you are optimistic on renewables curbing GHG emissions and replacing FF. But very skeptical and untrusting of government and corporations regarding healthcare.

            I fall into the 3rd category. I am untrusting and skeptical of government and corporations on both “net zero” and healthcare. Historically big pharmas record on ethical practices is horrifying to say the least, it is extremely hard to trust anything they say. And looking at GHG emission charts, the trend is 1 directional and thats up, regardless of the rhetoric by big corp and government. That’s how i see it.

            1. Iron Mike —

              Hold on there man. I’am more-or-less trusting of government and corporations being ethical and honest regarding healthcare. That is for places like Canada and Norway. I have zero trust in “Big Pharma” as dominated by the U.S. “system”.

            2. I’m a lot less optimistic about renewables than you might think because of my skepticism and mistrust of government and corporations regarding energy. If you pay attention to the work of Rhode Island senator Sheldon Whitehouse over many years you get the picture. Whitehouse gave what he hoped would be his last “Time to Wake Up” presentation on January 28, 2021 but, on February 2, 2022 he reluctantly resurrected his old trusty “Time to Wake Up” poster and has resumed his campaign of “Time to Wake Up” presentations on the Senate floor. A month ago, on March 2nd, Whitehouse made his 287th “Time to Wake Up” presentation.

              Whitehouse’s presentations explain why I remain skeptical about the chances for renewable energy and electrification having any effect on carbon emissions. For example he traces the dark money that goes into the funding of “think tanks” and Super PACs that support the efforts to support the fossil fuel industries and stymie emission reduction efforts. From his 286th “Time to Wake Up” presentation on Nov 16, 2022:

              One note of warning. Our success in the united states as well as in countries around the world will in significant ways be determined by the behavior of big corporations. Corporate America has built the biggest political influence operation the world has ever seen. It surrounds this building, surrounds us here in congress. Lobbyists, dark money, trade associations, political contributions, phony think tanks, it is an awesome apparatus and it is one that corporate America has yet to switch on for climate legislation.

        2. I just reread my post and realized that my omission of two letters and an apostrophe (n’t) completely messed up a question I raised. I had meant to ask “why wasn’t the Chinese vaccine more widely used” (especially in the wealthier countries). That sort of thing happens when you post just before rushing out

    2. Much of the population in industrialized societies is older and getting older still all the time. And further degradation of the health care system and increase in superbugs will affect these populations much more severely.

  10. “We’ll go down in history as the first society that wouldn’t save itself because it wasn’t cost-effective.” ~ Kurt Vonnegut,

    1. Survivalist:
      Not necessarily so. Translation from an ancient Egyptian tomb

      ” A man eats one third of his food, his health care providers eat the balance”

  11. Alim above said:
    it isn’t just firearms, unfortunately. Life is cheap in Repubican America. Traffic deaths are also insanely high, and nobody cares. Tens of millions have inadequate health coverage, leading to tens of thousands of premature deaths a year. State legislatures routinely ban basic healthcare, especially for women. Drug overdoses are through the roof…

    See attached…

    1. I get it, the site splits the threads into oil related and not oil related, but when, in the oil thread D Coyne (who is great) is arguing that high oil prices have had no harmful impact on society, and in the non oil thread, people are pointing out that the most oil dependent nation on earth is falling apart with life expectancy plunging, and nobody is pointing the finger for life expectancy collapse at the decline in net energy being produced to support society, I wonder if maybe every now and then the site needs a combination thread to talk about how the energy problems are impacting things that aren’t obviously related to energy.

      If you’ve read Joseph Tainter’s work (and I’m assuming most people here have – if not, you really should) you will understand the point I am making here.

      1. Some guy,
        i think taxing oil at the pump in America at European levels would cure many of the country’s ills. America should be exporting as much oil as it can to run down its debt, and car dependency is one of the primary causes of poverty in the country.

      2. dennis is not in any way convinced that peak oil is actually that big of a problem or that big of a deal (chill dennis – i’m exaggerating, but you are pretty stoic, which, you know, good for you). he’s got three million arguments on every aspect of peak oil and will even say he’s been under optimistic with his predictions. the world could literally end tomorrow and dennis would post some Fed or UN chart saying “thumbs up – we’re all good”. and since his posts represent 50% of all posts it gives a bit of a distorted view of the general overall opinion of the PoB site – we are royally and very presently SCREWED

        1. Twocats,

          I am not as optimistic as you seem to believe, but like to present an alternative view point to the gloom and doom set that predominates at POB. Yes there are plenty of problems and there are multiple solutions to each one, many that have not even been invented and each solution will likely cause other problems known and unknown.

          The future is not written, considering the infinite number of possible future scenarios it is not possible to predict what will occur. The charts I post are historical data from the best data sets I can find, you are welcome to post charts that contradict them and include your sources, if you would like to be credible.

          Facts are stubborn things.

        1. Yes, thanks Alimbiquated. But this is what I am saying – US life expectancy is falling because of guns, cars and drugs, sure, this is 100% true, as a proximate cause. But it is not like guns, cars or drugs are a new phenomenon, they’ve been around for decades or centuries, so how come it is just in the last few years that life expectancy started to fall?

          What has changed?

          Without enough net energy, everything gets squeezed, and everyone gets squeezed. What it does take to keep the GDP line going up when energy production is growing rapidly every year? Nothing really, it just happens. What does it take to keep the GDP line going up when energy is shrinking? Outsourcing the work to poor countries, crushing unions, increasing the retirement age, working unpaid overtime, increased inequality (since the rich won’t actually spend their income, you can create it on paper and claim growth, without seeing inflation, outside of asset prices), cutting money for education, etc. etc. And this is what leads to broken cultures and broken lives and to corrupt politics and from there to increasing suicide rates, increasing gun violence rates, increasing road rage deaths, increasing deaths of ‘despair’ as they have rightfully been called.

      4. Some guy,

        The short answer is COVID.

        The problems in the US are mainly political, poor tax policy has led to wide income disparity which has become much worse since 1980 and also poor health care policy has lead to poor health outcomes.

        At some point the US will move from the 19th to the twentieth century in its social policy. Maybe by the 22nd century we might even reach early 21st Century Canadian and European standards, one can hope, but to be honest I am not that optimistic.

    4. And not to defend the gun culture………. but around half of our gun fire deaths are suicides.

      1. FWIW, one of the most moving passages in the canon of Darwin’s writings:

        [As I got older,] I gave up my gun more and more […] I discovered, though unconsciously and insensibly, that the pleasure of observing and reasoning was a much higher one than that of skill and sport. The primeval instincts of the barbarian slowly yielded to the acquired tastes of the civilized man.

        His studies gradually matured him into a being who rued “the sufferings of millions of the lower animals throughout almost endless time.”

  12. trump has been indicted.

    My personal guess is that this is likely to result in improved odds for the Democrats in twenty four, from dog catcher to president, on average, nation wide.

    If the D’s do well, the black clouds may not be quite so black, in economic and environmental terms.

      1. I think the very word “socialism” has been vilified so stridently in this country (US) that no matter what level at which a person or organization would wish to temper the viciousness of capitalism with some aspects of socialized policy you simply cannot use that word without bringing the demons down such that you are DOA on day one. Just look at the vilification of Social Security, and that is probably the best law ever enacted by the US government.

    2. Michael Cohen (Trump’s personal attorney) went to prison for what Trump did. He has a personal vendetta against Trump.

      Alan Weisselberg (Trump’s personal accountant) is working with the FBI and went to prison for what Trump did.

      Weisselberg ran 2 books for Trump. 1 for the Government. 1 for Reality. He gave the books to the FBI.

      If Trump doesn’t go to prison there is no justice in the USA.

      God help us all (and I am an agnostic)

    3. Yep, things are trending:

      “Cocaine production is at its highest level on record, UN says – Coca cultivation soared 35 per cent from 2020 to 2021, a record high and the sharpest year-to-year increase since 2016”

  13. Oh dear, it wasn’t supposed to be like this.

    AS SUMMER LOOMS, INDIA ORDERS COAL POWER PLANTS TO MAX OUT

    “For the second year in a row, India’s government has ordered the nation’s coal-fired power plants to run at full power. But this year’s order is even more sweeping than last year’s — all coal and oil-fired generators will be maxed out for the entire summer, from April through June. Analysts say it will dramatically increase India’s already sky-high greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Note: India is the world’s second-largest country by population, and the third-largest emitter. It relies on its abundant coal — plus some imports — for some 70% of electricity. India has hundreds of coal-fired plants and mines dotted around the country. The government expects power demand to reach a high of 229 gigawatts in April.

    https://ca.yahoo.com/news/summer-looms-india-orders-coal-025438525.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      CHINA’S Q1 COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO NEW HIGHS AS FACTORIES THROTTLE UP

      “China’s imports of thermal coal in the opening quarter of 2023 have soared to new highs as utilities and businesses restocked in anticipation of greater energy use following the easing of strict zero-COVID policies that curbed coal demand in 2022. Total thermal coal imports through March soared 81% from the same period a year ago to 65.7 million tonnes, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. With China having been largely sidelined from coal markets in 2022 by repeated battles with COVID-19, the country’s aggressive return to coal import markets so far in 2023 raises the prospect of a surge in coal-fired emissions from the world’s largest goods manufacturer and exporter.”

      https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-q1-coal-imports-jump-new-highs-factories-throttle-up-2023-03-28/

    2. Blood comes out of people’s eyes when we mention that we burn about four tons of anthracite in our antique kitchen range every year.

      Had I never even been born, it would not have made a difference.

      1. “it would not have made a difference”

        Yes, that’s what a fat person says to themselves every night in front of the TV as they unwrap an ice cream sandwich

        1. “it would not have made a difference”

          I was going to say that that is what a shoplifter says as they steal something from Walmart. They won’t miss it, they have tons of stuff, what difference does one little (whatever) make.

        2. HB,

          Oh, it’s much worse than even you think.

          In addition to the coal stove in the kitchen, we have a wood-burning box stove in the parlor (5 cords/ year); a JD tractor that burns diesel; a Nissan truck, a riding mower, weed wackers, and chainsaws that burn gasoline; a big propane tank attached to the house for the gas stove in the pantry; and two kerosene heaters in my partner’s wood shop.

          But it’s also better than you think.

          Our barn has 48 solar panels on it (grid-tie). We pump water for the animals out of an old-fashioned Meyer’s handpump. We grow a large portion of our own food (100% of our pork and eggs, and a LOT of vegetables and apples); we don’t go anywhere except into town for groceries and doctors’ appointments; and best of all:

          We haven’t reproduced.

          (Because neither of us has a uterus LOL.)

          1. MB,

            I haven’t reproduced.

            (I’m into uteri’s) lol

            I don’t really give a “F” what you burn. For the last 40 years I’ve lived in the same home. Have never run the furnace from the beginning of November until April 2 like I needed to this year. This winter’s average temps were 10 degree’s below the norm. I do remember one winter running it for only 3 weeks in January. January and February I burned 43 therms each, including cooking, hot water and heating for 1500 sq., about 8 KW’s per day and 12 gallons of gasoline per month. After years of drought, recorded breaking needed rain. 80v wacker & mower, an avocado and orange tree in the back yard. I’ll bet you don’t have either of those. Congrats on the panels.

            Don’t expect others to care if it doesn’t make a difference. When you have an enormous project. You break it down and take it one step at a time. But before anything can happen, you have to be motivated.

      2. I’m with Mike B.
        It’s as easy as shit criticizing other people when you have the economic resources to play by different rules.

        I used to fish almost every day I could, on the James River. Every day I watched coal trains hauling our best coal to Newport News to ship it overseas. Those trains were at least a mile long.
        Now deduct the pollution associated with running the grid, or delivering propane to Mike’s house, and he’s polluting half as much as at first glance.

        1. OFM, not to mention that our coal-fired cookstove also provides 100% of our hot water and cooking/baking from October thru April.

  14. The Greenland Ice sheet….If it melts entirely, global sea level would rise about 7 meters (23 feet),(but they’re not sure when)
    Having emitted about 500 gigatons of carbon, we’re about halfway to the first tipping point.
    https://news.agu.org/press-release/the-greenland-ice-sheet-is-close-to-a-melting-point-of-no-return/

    23? Along with Antartica? 500, 1000?
    I need to lookup conditions when Vikings were there.
    Most of the melt rose seas 300’ 13k years ago.

    It’s interesting that diminishing FFs won’t resolve this.
    Especially since mining the remaining gets harder and harder since the easy stuff is gone.

  15. Interesting look behind the curtain at Elon Musk thinking on a few issues.
    I hope he sticks to idea of a smaller battery less expensive vehicle that is mentioned.
    “Elon Musk: Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead, $20,000 City Car Is Coming”
    https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/01/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-is-dead-20000-city-car-is-coming/

    He mentions a 40kWh battery for such a vehicle. That is a reasonable size for the vast majority of people needs, unless they are hauling cargo or big crews.

  16. Speaking of coal, looks like Australia and China have kissed and made up.

    CHINA RAMPS UP AUSTRALIAN COAL IMPORTS AS ECONOMY REBOUNDS

    According to reporting from S&P Global, “unlike prior slowdowns, when China provided an economic stimulus felt around the globe, the new economic push offers little support to economies ailing from weak growth and supply chain stress.” But that’s not true across the board. China’s reopening has been concurrent with a major thaw in diplomatic relations between Beijing and Australia, and, relatedly, a massive uptick in imports of Australian coal to China.
    Just last month, China imported US$23.7 million worth of coking coal (72,982 tonnes) and US$18.2 million worth of thermal coal (134,254 tonnes) from Australia, according to official data from the General Administration of Customs. This is a significant turnaround from the past few years. Since 2020, China has upheld an unofficial ban on Australian coal due to a lengthy saga of rising political tensions and failed diplomatic relations between China and Australia.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/China-Ramps-Up-Australian-Coal-Impots-As-Economy-Rebounds.html

  17. Sunday Morning Trivia:

    According to Mark Campanale, whose London-based NGO Carbon Tracker provided those numbers a decade ago. The fossil-fuel industry has continued to explore and prospect, and now controls reserves of coal, gas, and oil that, if burned, would produce 3,700 gigatons of carbon dioxide. That’s 10 times the amount that scientists say would take us past the temperature targets set in the Paris Climate Agreement. Another way of saying this: If we are to meet the climate targets set by scientists, we have to leave 90 percent of the fossil fuels we have discovered underground.

    1. If the end-user demand is there,
      companies will work hard to capture the revenue stream,
      and politicians will keep trying anything to stay in power (and therefore keep the power on).

    1. OFM,

      Note that the piece was also published on April 1, I don’t know if April Fool’s Jokes are a thing in Germany.

      The initial piece was published in August 2022, so maybe legit, but at present no project has scaled to commercial viability, so unclear if hurdles will be overcome.

      1. It could be another four one thing, lol.
        But it is a fact that a number of companies are working on the concept, and if it can be commercialized……. just look a the amount of materials needed for one of these kites on steroids……. considering that it can easily fly at a thousand feet or higher, where the wind is really strong.

        1. OFM,

          It might work, but I am not a good enough engineer to know for sure, I hope you are correct, but remain a skeptic until a working commercial system proves me wrong.

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