150 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, March 27, 2020”

      2. Hey Mr Ghung,
        I’m sure I’m speaking for all the regulars here. You are missed.

        Please remember your old cyber friends who put a high value on your comments.

      1. Logic went out the window years ago. It will only return when the dollars stops being the investment safe haven.

      2. I think we left most logic behind a while ago when we developed the fictional reality of civilization. However, actual reality keeps messing with our games. How annoying for us! We must either break reality or find a way back into it before it breaks us.
        Sadly we have allied ourselves with life destroying materials, forces and activities. It will be a true sea change for the world of humans to realign with the reality of the living world.

      3. hyperinflation

        A lot of people old enough to remember the 60s and 70s are worried about this. But the vast armies of cheap labor brought into the wold economy by globalization combined with continued improvements in efficiency will dampen inflation for decades to come. Added to that, rich people are aging quickly, an old people tend to spend less money.

        The world’s main problems are ecological, not economic.

  3. I’ll post this here, as I suppose this is not well known outside in Europe (and even within most people don’t know about it). It’s an EU project that tracks total and excess mortality in 24 EU countries. The charts are up to week 12 (March 22). There are total charts showing weekly number of deaths by age group and then country-specific charts unfortunately showing only the standard deviation.

    The impact of previous flu seasons (especially 2016/17 and 2017/18) is really eye-opening.

    Regarding the current situation, there is very noticable drop of mortality for EU total, it’s even below the seasonal average, due to the shutdown (less traffic deaths, etc…).

    Italy shows a noticable rise (and the numbers are confirmed/adjusted each week, so it will rise even further also for previous weeks, as more accurate data flows in), however is still way below flu seasons 2016/17 and 2017/18.

    http://euromomo.eu/

    http://euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

    1. Nota bene
      “The number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. ”
      Also, there are countries that are not acknowledging and under-reporting covid-19 deaths.

      NAOM

      1. Those are total deaths, attribution of COVID-19 as death cause does not matter here. Also, I mentioned that the data has delays and is being adjusted weekly. However, the delay is usually one week, so the week 11 Italy data should be more-or-less complete.

        1. I suspect that the delay may not be thee usual 1 week. Still, we shall see. The Italian curve does show a noticeable uptick. This would be a good link to update here as time goes by.

          NAOM

    2. Thanks for the good news Strummer. Not sure the hospitals nurses doctors med techs are having a pleasant time of it though.

    3. Regarding the current situation, there is very noticeable drop of mortality for EU total, it’s even below the seasonal average, due to the shutdown (less traffic deaths, etc…).

      I predicted a couple of weeks ago that this would happen in China. It’s slightly more surprising in the EU.

    4. Hi Strummer,

      Mortality yearly rate of Flu season usually ranges from 100 to 500 deaths per million inhabitant. This is mainly spread over about 8 weeks, with about uniform distribution over countries. The medical system is usually designed to deal with strong Flu seasons.
      No specific measures are taken to avoid Flu spread.

      With COVID-19, in most countries, hospitals are completely flooded with severe COVID-19 cases, at least locally where there is an exponential growth. Moreover recovering from Flu is typically one week versus 3 for COVID-19. Now, with exceptionnal measures taken to restrict deeply movement and contacts of people, the number of deaths in Italy and Spain has already reached the range of a complete Flu season while we are still far from the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

      If you live in the US, just be aware that the daily number of deaths is typically following the number of cases with 1-2 weeks delay. Yesterday, this number was 525 and corresponds to new cases that occurred one weeks ago (~5500). There are now about 20k new cases per day and this could increase in the next days/weeks.

      In summary, by taking exceptionnal measures to restrict interperson contacts, we might be able to stay within a big Flu season. If you don’t take those measures, be ready to see 2-4% of the population dying. This is to be compared to ~0.1% for Flu. This is not taking into account all deaths from other pathologies that will not be taken in charge due to the saturation of hospitals.

      COVID-19 is to be taken very seriously, people continuing interperson contacts could indirectly kill other people because they are contributing to the saturation of hospitals.

      Take care of you, take care of others!

      1. “the number of deaths in Italy and Spain has already reached the range of a complete Flu season while we are still far from the end of the COVID-19 pandemic”

        Please check the link I provided before spreading misinformation. It shows the historical data going back 3 previous flu seasons, and absolutely does not confirm your statements.

        1. First, the site you mention does not include the latest data, as already mentioned in other comments. Check again when the week 13 will be encoded.
          Second, check on the same site the following map: http://euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html
          Just remember, the current situation as far from being finished, at the contrary of the Flu season.
          If you want up-to-date COVID-19 related deaths and make the math yourself, you can check for example this site: https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/
          You can also read the following publication for Italy to have a sense of the previous Flu seasons: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
          “We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index.”
          Current COVID-19 number of deaths in Italy is about 10,000 and will continue to increase in the next days/weeks. So, yes, this is in the range of Flu (7-25,000), at least currently!
          Misinformation is when you tell/spread false information (which is not the case for both of us). You just use data that are not updated and draw too early conclusion.

          1. The ‘COVID19 deaths’ in Italy are deaths of people who died due to any cause, while being positively tested for COVID19. Not deaths caused by COVID19. The comparisons to Flu in this regard are not relevant and the only relevant comparison can be made by comparing total excess mortality. Which, even though higher than flu season 2018/19, is still lower than the previous two flu seasons.

    2. The vast majority of people just don’t undersand what exponential rate means…

  5. Had to go to the bank today, what a mess but another story, so I took a ride downtown.

    Traffic a little quieter, not a lot. Shops about 80-90% open though this varies a lot from street to street. Apparently clothes, shoes, paint, cellphones cloth etc are all essential work! Noticeably less people about but social distancing non existent, the guide is 1m but is interpreted as center to center not spacing. A couple of gringoes with no idea how to wear their masks, why do these people have so much difficulty with something so simple?

    There were hardly any tourists down on the sea front, didn’t explore the beach though. Some were definitely new arrivals. Beach vendors sitting around playing cards.

    Generally BAU minus tourists but Easter is yet to come.

    NAOM

      1. Had our first death. An American who came down at the start of the month, felt ill and was diagnosed positive, at the regional, but sent home to isolate. They then felt worse so went to a private clinic, then was sent to Tomatlan where they died.

        Seems like it was handled badly. Contact tracing is now going on for relatives and medical staff they were in contact with (lots by the sound of it). This is how I expected it to come to town. Roll on Easter.

        NAOM

        1. If the US goes into “lockdown” and physical distancing to a large degree, I expect the peak of cases in May and deaths to peak in June. As you can see from the map in the site listed below, much of the US is not taking this seriously. That could mean much higher deaths in total and several pulses of disease as areas that were locked down open up again.

          https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3

          I estimate about 1 per 100 is now infected near my region. Most will not be serious and many will be asymptomatic, thus spreaders since testing is low here.
          If we “unlock” in mid-April, cases will skyrocket (public term for very fast growth).

          Sorry, most of your vacations will have to be while sheltering in place, if you are smart. I plan on doing a lot of hiking, kayaking, some energy projects and gardening.
          This is a great time to practice low energy and low material living, for those who don’t already.
          Who knows, you may be very sick or dead in the near future, so today is a great day to be alive (always true, not just now).

          Stay safe, you don’t want to go into a hospital now for other reasons.
          Wash your hands a lot.

          1. I’m planning on taking advantage of the oil price war and running my big yellow machine every hour I can, until it either breaks or I’m exhausted myself.

            Dog can ride with me, but otherwise, I’ll be isolated, lol.

            Would rather be home on the farm, in scenic country right off the BRP National Park than in a hotel in a resort anyway. I won’t have anybody crowding ME at the little nearby lakes and streams where I fish, read, and meditate. They mostly belong to relatives, lol. Might finish up one of my own before diesel fuel goes again.

            1. Use all the diesel you want, won’t dent the shutdown. Just heard a big rail commuter line in eastern Jersey is down 90 percent in ridership. Suspect this is through the whole system in the Megopolis.

            1. Nope, not me. I am in it for the long haul, might even make it out the other side. To what, I am not sure. Might be the Greatest Depression, might be accelerated BAU. ?????

              Anybody check to see what this has done to the exponential rise of renewable energy in the world?

          3. USA is still on the exponential. Given many areas are still in denial I expect to see a LOT of case, case, case, cluster, cluster, boom. I don’t think they realise where it is going. Mexico will follow, AMLO has been in deep denial but, latest reports, show he is now starting to keep a safe distance.

            NAOM

            1. The situation in the USA is very scaring indeed, especially when you project the numbers of deaths in the coming weeks…

              Isn’t Mexico protected by a big wall (sarc!) ?

          4. Gonefishing, and all

            And avoid touching your face. Look at your hands as if they are your enemies. Although it is much more likely to get infected by a coughing or sneezing person nearby you. And a higher amount of virus particles entering your respiratory system generally will shorten the incubation time and makes a person more sick.

            How long can the virus survive on surfaces ?
            The New England Journal of Medicine just published a study that tested how long the virus can remain stable on different kinds of surfaces within a controlled laboratory setting. They found that it was still detectable on copper for up to four hours, on cardboard for up to 24 hours, and on plastic and steel for up to 72 hours.

            But it’s important to note that the amount of virus decreased rapidly over time on each of those surfaces. And so the risk of infection from touching them would probably decrease over time as well.

            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/25/how-long-coronavirus-lasts-on-surfaces-packages-groceries

            And decreases the risk of getting very ill.

    2. SF Bay area is pretty quiet. Restrictions being followed well it seems, without harsh policing.
      Tentatively, the growth in sickness here is following a slower path than would be expected if we had instituted restrictions even just a week later.
      Another two months hard I suspect, then gradual loosening.
      Hard on most, who live without much leeway.
      And on the EMT’s, police, fire, and medical workers.
      So lucky it doesn’t kill young as much. The next one might.

      A rescue medication (or three) will be coming along soon I predict. Unlikely to include chloroquine.
      If so, it may allow loosening of restrictions earlier, depending on effectiveness and supply.
      See Regeneron and Gilead for examples of the ones with strong prospects, as best I can see it.

      1. Gilead does have some interesting things in the fire.
        NorCal is where this is happening (as always, with Boston occasionally helping out)
        Regeneron is in NY.

  6. I’m beginning to see some cracks in the Trump political fortress among my hard core orangutan fan relatives and acquaintances.

    It’s taken a long time, and I didn’t think I would ever see it happen, because these people are almost entirely non political, except when they feel threatened, and they flocked to the orangutan mostly because they were scared, scared of their way of life melting away with changing times.

    It’s really hard for somebody who doesn’t actually know such people on a one to one personal basis for many years to understand the way they see the world. They don’t pay any more attention to scientists than a typical well educated person pays to flying saucer nut cases. It’s just a sort of magic to them, some kind of trick that provides them with cell phones, air travel, computers, etc.

    To them abortion is as vile a taboo as literally eating the baby would be to a typical young Democrat. The VAST majority of them won’t pay more than fleeting attention to warnings about smoking, until they get old enough to see their PERSONAL smoking peers dying off at a much faster rate.

    But hit them hard enough upside the head with a big enough sharp chunk of broken brick, and you can eventually get their attention, and now ’19 is getting their attention, better late than never. I’m seeing some of the smarter ones ( intelligence and knowledge ranges over a scale from basket case to genius ) slowly coming to the realization that their self proclaimed stable genius savior hero is a nut case, to put it mildly.

    For such a man, this is as big a shock as finding out his spiritual mentor of many years, his pastor, has been fucking his wife right along. It’s such a big shock it takes a long time to actually realize it’s true, unless he sees it with his own lying eyes, and even then, he is as apt as not to try to rationalize it away.

    A week or so back I got into a discussion with such a man, who when I pointed out that his loving God murders innocent little kids by the thousands every day, said with a totally , and I do mean TOTALLY, confident smile, that “God has his reasons” just as if his god caught those little kids making a mess in the house and took away their toys for a few minutes to punish them.

    But the survival instinct built in by evolution is more powerful, when the chips are down, than the crowd instinct, the one that makes it necessary to be an insider in a religion, culture, or society, with enemies without, because without enemies, how can you identify friends?

    You can’t, any more than a person who has never been hungry can know the reality of starvation, or a person who has always had money can know the reality of poverty, or the person who has known only hate and hostility can know the sublime joy of love. We know things, emotionally and intellectually, by way of contrast.

    But now these people, the smarter ones of them at least, are finally getting SCARED, because they are coming to realize just how big a fraud and a fool their reincarnated savior actually is…… the reincarnation of the wizard in the Wizard of Oz story, and 19 the virus is the little doggie pulling back the curtain.

    Whether enough of them will come to understand this reality before election day is an open question, but I’m dead sure that in places where the race for office is close, from dog catcher to president, the odds are fast improving for the Democrats and or independents and maybe even the odd third party candidate here and there.

    In the meantime, if Daddy gets it, he’s just about dead sure a goner, if the local hospital is short of icu capacity. Ditto at least another dozen old and chronically ill people I speak to on a regular basis…… people who are alive, more often than not due to that horrible horrible socialism they hate with a passion…… Medicare, lol. Two or three of them could have sold out and paid for their own long term health care, and still have had a home of their own. The rest would be bankrupt and on straight up welfare, if still alive, which would be very unlikely, because hospitals losing money can do only so much for that sort of patient.

    1. Thanks for the insights (and excellent descriptions) on this slice of our culture OFM.
      We all see various versions of sub-optimal human behavior, intelligence and training in our little portion of the world. It does help to hear how others think, even if painful.

      I don’t much about Gov Cuomo policies, but damn, I sure like his character for a leader.
      I’d vote for him for pres without hesitation today.

    2. “A week or so back I got into a discussion with such a man, who when I pointed out that his loving God murders innocent little kids by the thousands every day, said with a totally , and I do mean TOTALLY, confident smile, that “God has his reasons” just as if his god caught those little kids making a mess in the house and took away their toys for a few minutes to punish them. ”

      When Job complained about his situation to God. God’s answer is: “You are not me” therefore you have no right to complain.

      Other than his promise to end infant mortality in the future(Isaiah 65:20).

      In a cruel way infant mortality is one of the ways aside from bad hygiene and nutrition to by which bad genetic mutations get purged.

      A corrupt cosmos requires a dramatic overhaul and little miracles will not truly fix the fundamentally corrupt nature of our current universe.

  7. For those who are interested in USA mapping, this map gives a great show of the current #known cases/capita by county.
    It may be surprising to see that some rural state counties are far worse than any in Calif, for example.
    Look at central Indiana for example.

    All it took was some cruise ship locals, or mardi gras tourists, or business travelers, or skiers vacationing in Jan or Feb
    The interstate airline industry really should have been shut down (almost entirely) in mid Feb for 6 weeks.
    It was already clear by then what was coming, to those who were paying attention.

    source- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

    1. US cities

      10 over 1 million
      36 over 1/2 million
      115 over 100 thousand

      Not going to end well.

      NAOM

    2. In the rural areas it will be ‘Well, that’s in the cities, we ain’t gonna get it here. BTW Bill Bob, at the store, has been coughing a a bit.’

      NAOM

    3. I wonder if we will ever get accurate coronavirus numbers out of the USA. People (or rather: institutions) in the USA are not even able to count their barrels of oil produced more or less correctly on a monthly basis (revisions upon revisions upon revisions go on for months.) How will they do a case count/casualty count on a daily basis? The keenly mapped numbers above might represent only a fraction of reality.
      To be fair: here in Europe the official numbers are bogus too: deaths by coronavirus in nursery homes are not counted in France, deaths of patients with coronavirus and an underlying condition (e.g. diabetes) are attributed to the underlying condition in Germany and so on.

      Edit: Statement about Germany appears to be wrong and has to be rectified here: they do explicitly attribute deaths to coronavirus, if tested positive, regardless of any underlying condition. For European numbers in general, I rest my case.

      1. When people are showing all the symptoms, are being sent for negative flu etc test but being refused a coronavirus test because they haven’t been in contact with a known carrier or not been to a listed country and even when they are very ill and doctors are pleading for a test, we will never know the true numbers.

        NAOM

  8. Global renewables expansion in 2020 will be ‘wiped out’ by Covid-19: Rystad

    The momentum-building global expansion of wind and solar power plant could be stymied for at least year as government restrictions on movement impact construction timeframes and foreign exchanges market contract around the world, according to new forecast by Rystad Energy.

    The Norwegian analyst group calculates growth in newly commissioned renewables projects will now be “wiped out” for 2020 and cut by a further 10% next year, reversing its pre-Covid-19 expectation of some 140GW of PV and 75GW of wind capacity being added this year.

    https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/global-renewables-expansion-in-2020-will-be-wiped-out-by-covid-19-rystad/2-1-783350

    1. It will probably hit the fossil fuel industry harder though Renewables can survive with very low cash flow.

      1. It will hit fossil fuels much, much harder.

        If I read that article correctly, they’re saying growth of the rate of wind & solar installation will be eliminated. That means installations will continue, just at the same rate as last year. Which means overall renewable generation will continue to grow, just a little slower than originally expected.

        So, renewables will continue to grow, while fossil fuels will crash.

        1. Yep, a virus is doing in a few months far more than 50 years of renewable growth has done. FF is getting clobbered. Of course, so is everyone else too. Six months of this and we won’t be building anything.

  9. US leads world in Covid19 cases around 135K.

    Trump always said we would Sick of Winning by the time his presidency came to a close….

  10. One of my very best friends these days is an old TOD hand, and taken all around, without question the smartest man I have ever had the privilege to know well.

    He lurks here occasionally but for reasons of his own he has never registered to post a comment.

    He says that he reckons the orangutan will be reelected now, because the typical voter these days is so ignorant he can be bought with some helicopter money.
    The core of his support has apparently already forgotten all about how they hate socialism and welfare when it’s headed THEIR way. They’re owning them there libtards, lol. THEIR man is taking charge, after telling them ’19 is nothing more than a joke for the previous six weeks. They’ve totally forgotten what he said as little as a couple of days ago, except for a few of the more intelligent ones, who voted for him to send a message to BOTH parties, that they were totally sick and tired of being ignored and or worse taken for granted.

    I stay home but find it necessary to visit the nearest country store occasionally for a few expendables such as milk, etc.

    The local people LOVE global warming now, since they’ve been working outside in shirt sleeves and even sunbathing almost all winter, except for the ones who raise fruit. THEY haven’t yet forgotten that after all this unseasonably warm weather, a typical frost that can be expected along about this time of year can wipe them out for the year.

    The store makes excellent hot sandwiches, and there are picnic tables outside, so I can stand clear and listen in to the gossip.

    The owner tells me he is thinking about putting up the parasol type sunshades on the tables already…… but he’s afraid the wind might still get them.
    I’ve been running the ac here in the mountains of Virginia for the last week off and on, because we have a lot of glass.Opening windows hasn’t been enough. Going to put up canopies later this week…. no sooner, same reason, wind issue.

    1. Will this be used as an excuse, by the fossil fuel industry, to push for geoengineering?

      NAOM

      1. Almost guaranteed but it won’t be just the fossil fuel industry! Face it, in a crisis you’ll (we’ll) flail about and try anything. We’re there, or almost.

        Meanwhile,

        NEW REPORT TELLS GRIM STORY OF HEAT, DROUGHT AND FIRE IN AUSTRALIA

        “Last year was just another step down on the continuing descent into an ever more dismal future — unless we finally take serious action.”

        https://phys.org/news/2020-03-grim-story-drought-australia.html

      1. Hi GF,
        I’m not quite getting it.

        “Not of much concern to climate scientists since the effect disappears in weeks after the fossil fuel stops burning”.

        I don’t get your quoted “not of much concern”, unless you mean making it easier to create more reliable warming models, which would be easier with one less variable to be dealt with. Taking out variables always simplifies modeling.

        Is that what you are saying?
        If aerosols are offsetting greenhouse gases, thereby reducing warming by inducing cooling, when and if we quit burning fossil fuels, the artificial aerosols will disappear quickly, but the greenhouse gases CO2 and methane will be sticking around for LONG time, so the rate of warming can be expected to increase substantially, by whatever amount that was formerly offset by aerosols, or maybe even more, depending on feedback loops and so forth.

        From the link

        However, if this is true then how come the earth is getting warmer, not cooler? For all of the global attention on climate warming, aerosol pollution rates from vehicles, agriculture and power plants is still very high. For Rosenfeld, this discrepancy might point to an ever deeper and more troubling reality. “If the aerosols indeed cause a greater cooling effect than previously estimated, then the warming effect of the greenhouse gases has also been larger than we thought, enabling greenhouse gas emissions to overcome the cooling effect of aerosols and points to a greater amount of global warming than we previously thought,” he shared.

        The fact that our planet is getting warmer even though aerosols are cooling it down at higher rates than previously thought brings us to a Catch-22 situation: Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols’ cooling ability to offset global warming.”

        There’s more.

        “According to Rosenfeld, another hypothesis to explain why Earth is getting warmer even though aerosols have been cooling it down at an even a greater rate is a possible warming effect of aerosols when they lodge in deep clouds, meaning those 10 kilometers or more above the Earth. Israel’s Space Agency and France’s National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) have teamed up to develop new satellites that will be able to investigate this deep cloud phenomenon, with Professor Rosenfeld as its principal investigator.

        Either way, the conclusion is the same. Our current global climate predictions do not correctly take into account the significant effects of aerosols on clouds on Earth’s overall energy balance. Further, Rosenfeld’s recalculations mean fellow scientists will have to rethink their global warming predictions — which currently predict a 1.5 to 4.5-degree Celsius temperature increase by the end of the 21st century — to provide us a more accurate diagnosis — and prognosis — of the Earth’s climate.”

        I can understand these arguments easily enough in general terms, but working scientists are having a tough time putting them in the language of pro level science.. the language of NUMBERS, of actual measurement of causes and effects.

        1. “I don’t get your quoted “not of much concern”, unless you mean making it easier to create more reliable warming models, which would be easier with one less variable to be dealt with. Taking out variables always simplifies modeling.

          Is that what you are saying?”

          Dimming should be measured at the surface.
          There is no comprehensive long term global surface set of measurements of a variable that can be an order of magnitude greater than CO2 forcing. We have ships crisscrossing the ocean constantly, why do they not have robotic measuring devices on them?

          How can we miss a doubling ( or more)of a large effect for decades if there has been sufficient surveillance and interest?
          If it does not directly involve CO2, then interest is muted and false figures are used or are absent for other forcings.

  13. Islandboy, where’s your next cornucopian green energy post? I’m waiting with bated breath. ?

    Meanwhile,

    WORLD NOT ON TRACK TO MEET GOAL AMID CONTINUOUS EMISSIONS

    “As long as global CO2 emissions are not embarking on a clear downward trajectory it is clear that we are not only continuing to make climate change worse, we’re doing it at a pace faster than ever before.”

    Daily CO2 Mar. 29, 2020: 415.68 ppm; Mar. 29, 2019: 412.03 ppm

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/paris-climate-deal-world-not-on-track-to-meet-goal-amid-continuous-emissions

    1. Nice tactic of “concern trolling” — pretending to care, but really just trying to discredit your political opponent by “proving” his cause is hopeless. The corollary, of course, is that we should carry on with business as usual.

      The whole idea of taunting or insulting your enemies instead of trying to engage in a serious effort to address the problem at hand shows that you don’t really care about the problem, just about “winning”. Trump does this a lot, attacking and insulting his perceived enemies instead of making serious attempts to improve things.

      1. I’ve repeatedly asked Doug why he attacks people who discuss solutions to GHG emissions. He hasn’t answered.

        It reminds me of people who aggressively defend their smoking addiction. They’ll say things like “when it’s your time, it’s your time”. I’ve seen people attack innovative health research on the same basis – they seem to feel so hopeless that any suggestion of improvement makes them vent anger at the messenger.

        1. Doug and GoneFishing obviously have several deep psychological issues. Just push the little ignore x on them and this place cleans up pretty nicely.

            1. If that’s what you call ignoring rants by the mentally ill, then I guess so.

            2. They both sound like reasonably intelligent guys to me.
              So i must be mentally ill also I guess.

            3. Congratulations! You don’t live in a mental closed box of echos and mirrors.

              We live in a fantastic world, unique, with a thin skin of fantastic self-replicating organisms. We just need to toss off the propaganda and be brave enough to face the world within which we live, instead of just feeding it to the machines and the manufactured needs.

      2. I will take a stab a ‘interpreting’ the many posts by Doug on this topic.
        Please forgive me Doug, in advance, if I’ve got it all wrong, and if so I would be open to education on it.
        He is making a valid and important point-

        The world is not making significant progress towards getting off coal and reducing CO2 emissions. And deforestation is progressing us towards a hell.

        Agree.

        Although I do part ways with Doug to some degree, in that there are some other very important parts of the story to tell. And I thank IslandBoy very much telling other parts of the story, and for having a thick skin and patience for Doug (emojis and all).

        I would add (and often do) a few points-
        Some places are getting off coal, like the USA, and anybody who doesn’t like coal should be fighting hard to make it happen quicker. Bitching and moaning generally aren’t too effective, and maybe it just means that you are lazy or insincere about it?
        If you want to be realistic and constructive regarding getting off fossils, then you better be an advocate for radical degree of energy conservation and alternative energy generation forms, in your personal life and state (not just writing on a blog). If you are at all serious about the issue, that is.
        Third, if you are serious about these things, having political leaders and parties in your area or country that are obstacles to brisk change, is not something you would meekly tolerate.

        Break…

        1. I agree – the world isn’t making nearly enough progress on reducing GHG emissions or protecting the environment (forests, oceans, wildlife, etc). I think almost everyone on this blog would agree.

          I disagree that we’re not making significant progress. EVs, wind, and solar are growing reasonably quickly, while fossil fuels are declining in some places (and are now crashing, while renewables are still growing). It’s not nearly as much as we need, but it’s far from nothing.

          But that’s not the point. No one is unhappy about someone pointing out that we need to do far more than we are. It’s the attacks on reports of positive development, and even the more: the personal attacks on the messengers.

          I think we should all agree that personal attacks are…ahem…unproductive. It’s very unpleasant for all of us to read, and we don’t want to discourage people like Islandboy with personal attacks. He seems to take it in stride, but he shouldn’t have to.

          1. It is amazing how degrowth due to a virus does in months what 50 years of renewable and climate change warnings could not. I have been harping on efficiency, degrowth and the lack of results from renewable energy for months now. Yet I doubt if any lesson will be learned. A year from now the same repeating pattern will occur, except while the virus news occupies most everyone, the fossil fuel companies have gotten several pieces of legislation passed to fortify their positions and stop protest against them.
            The renewable cheerleaders don’t know what they are up against.

        2. Hint:
          We have 7.7 billion homo sapiens in a collapsing ecosystem.
          First mass extinction in 65 million years.

          1. Yes, the human projection upon the planet is definitely not working. We need a new story to live by, or an old one.

            1. “We need a new story to live by, or an old one.”
              Well said. I think about that issue a lot. Humans were around for a long time without doing much damage to the ecosystem that supports us. I suspect that a typical medieval peasant probably never saw 50 pounds of iron in his entire life. Are we really happier than he was, more fulfilled, in a more just society? I really don’t know anymore. All of the assumptions about progress that I grew up with are out the window. Where are the philosopher-statesmen (and women) who are going to lead us to a sustainable world?

    2. Well, don’t hold your breath. I only pass on the news as I get it and there isn’t exactly a flood of “good news” at the moment. In addition, I have been doing some work on the next installment of the Electric Power Monthly since the data came out last week.

      I’ve also been playing around with a new hobbyist OS Haiku, an attempt to recreate the BeOS as an open source project. i first became aware of BeOS back in the nineties and eventually tried it out on as many PCs as I could. It was exceptionally responsive and amazingly good at multimedia stuff but, lacked applications since a lot of the now popular open source projects were in their infancy or did not even exist. Microsoft’s licensing terms did not allow vendors to dual boot an OS that was not a Microsoft product so, they couldn’t even give it away on new computers. BeOS faded away into the ether but, I have very fond memories of it and hope that maybe Haiku can eventually become BeOS resurrected.

      I hadn’t checked on it for about six months so I just decided to see if it would install in the space I have designated for it on my laptop. I made some mistakes that made the process take way longer than it should have but, it is now installed and I can choose to boot into it whenever I boot up my laptop. The drivers for the graphics chip in my laptop still don’t work properly forcing me to use “safe mode” graphics but my WiFi modem and audio work and I can browse the web. Still very rough around the edges so, I wouldn’t recommend it anyone except the most hardcore of OS tinkerers.

      I’ve been getting my vitamin C from ripe fruit, mostly mangoes and they don’t come with nutrition labels so, determining how much to eat before reaching bowel tolerance is proving a bit of a challenge. Mangoes also don’t come in timed release formulas like my preferred vitamin C supplements so they have to be paced throughout the day to keep my levels of vitamin C where I want them. It also means I have to borrow a long pole with a hook on it from a guy up the street wheniever I want to pick some, since very few are low enough to be picked by hand and quite a few are beyond the reach of the pole in question.

      Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica up to 36 now with the last known case not having any history of contact with other known cases. Community spreading has now begun and the government has announced that there will likely be further restrictions on the size of gatherings. As far as I known, call centers have still been allowed to operate. Can’t imagine that will be continued much longer if the situation continues to deteriorate.

    3. I don’t know Doug, everybody is doing their best to cut back now. Mother Nature is playing boogeyman right now and people ran home to hide for a while. I bet though, they will get back on the FF horse ASAP.

      1. Yes Doug, the cornucopian bleating does get tiresome. They couldn’t see reality if it was pasted on their bathroom mirror. No such things as limits to growth, definitely willing to wait 50 more years or more to fulfill their electric dreams while life gets flushed down the toilet by the civilization they so ardently cling onto. Clearly do not want to be inconvenienced. The old have their cake at the expense of everything else. The same old planet killer mindset , run by silicon implants and whirly beanies. They will find out there was a big reason batteries were not included.

  15. In one corner, we have Islandboy, the good guy,the technocopian babyface and in the other , Doug, the bad guy, the heel, the male equivalent of Debbie Downer.

    It’s almost like watching pro wrestling on tv back when I was a kid.

    Reality is almost dead sure to fall between the extremes.Personally I’m optimistic about a fair to even substantial slice of industrial civilized life surviving the coming bottleneck.

    Island boy wins some rounds, or falls, but Doug wins overall, imo, because most of our kind will die hard sometime in the not so distant future…. not that it matters a hell of a lot to me, personally, because I’m probably going to be dead before the shit storm hits like a hurricane. So far, we’re only having local storms, lol.

    1. And then you have innovation haters/adaptation nay-sayers, who actually hate just about everything it seems.

    1. Well. It’s up to the markets now. They and most people will be in disarray for years now. Most won’t be able to afford EVs now, but maybe they will choose more efficient cars due to lack of funds.
      Anyone thought about what this shutdown would be like in a fully renewable energy system? All those free roaming taxis would just stop and the ones that didn’t could be disease vectors.

    2. When I saw that headline in the paper this morning I was almost nauseous. I couldn’t read the story. It seems that the entire basis of the Trump presidency is to get back at Obama for making fun of him at the correspondent’s dinner.

      1. Now raiding Social Security, environmental laws will not be enforced. The list goes on and on.

  17. OFM — He did it! Your (self proclaimed) brilliant leader hard a work. What next? Dolphins and whales on the menu?

    “The Trump administration rolled back ambitious Obama-era vehicle mileage standards Tuesday, raising the ceiling on damaging fossil fuel emissions for years to come and gutting one of the United States’ biggest efforts against climate change.

    The Trump administration says the looser mileage standards will allow consumers to keep buying the less fuel-efficient SUVs that U.S. drivers have favored for years. Opponents say it will kill several hundred more Americans a year through dirtier air, compared to the Obama standards.

    Last year, 72% of the new vehicles purchased by U.S. consumers were trucks or SUVS. It was 51% when the current standards went into effect in 2012.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-rollback-mileage-standards-guts-climate-change-push-n1173026

    1. Meanwhile, south of the equator, the war continues (looks like humans are winning):

      “Deforestation of the Amazon has continued at record levels this year, leading observers to warn that the rainforest is disappearing faster than ever before. Under Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who has encouraged deforesting parts of the Amazon for development, the area of rainforest cleared last year jumped by 29.5 per cent to its highest level in a decade. With official data from Brazil’s space agency INPE now in for the whole of January and February 2020, it is clear there has been no let-up for the Amazon.”

      https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237048-amazon-deforestation-looks-set-to-hit-a-record-high-in-2020/#ixzz6IHaXL4xX

  18. As our war with the environment continues. Can’t wait to see Spring unfold and how many bugs we get. There were depressingly few last year, the swallows suffered!

    CORONAVIRUS IS A WAKE-UP CALL: OUR WAR WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IS LEADING TO PANDEMICS

    “The COVID-19 pandemic sweeping across the world is a crisis of our own making. That’s the message from infectious disease and environmental health experts, and from those in planetary health – an emerging field connecting human health, civilisation and the natural systems on which they depend.

    They might sound unrelated, but the COVID-19 crisis and the climate and biodiversity crises are deeply connected. Each arises from our seeming unwillingness to respect the interdependence between ourselves, other animal species and the natural world more generally.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-03-coronavirus-wake-up-war-environment-pandemics.html

    1. “It looks like humanity might have reached the point at which the Earth will finally reign us in.”

      1. Interesting thought. Wouldn’t it be a strange twist if a cascade of pandemics forced mankind to reign in his endless growth path and learn to live with (much) reduced expectations? Maybe that’s simplistic, I think middle class was already dealing with reduced expectations.

        1. H T, Doug L, and all the others (Their number is legion):

          “rein in” as in when riding a horse.

          You’re welcome.

          (Ambles away stuttering)

  19. Does this mean our “window of opportunity” has slipped from 11 to 10 years? Do we even have a window of opportunity now? Let the experts speak!

    COVID-19 COULD STOP NEW AUSTRALIA WIND AND SOLAR PROJECTS, WIPE OUT GLOBAL GROWTH

    The global Covid-19 pandemic is expected to hit planned wind and solar projects in Australia and other countries particularly hard, and wipe out any anticipated growth in renewables deployment in 2020.

    The Norway-based Rystad Energy says it had expected global solar additions to grow 15% to 140 gigawatts in 2020, and wind additions to grow 6% to around 75GW. But it now expects this growth to be eliminated, and its forecasts for 2021 have also been cut by around 10 per cent.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/covid-19-could-stop-new-australia-wind-and-solar-projects-wipe-out-global-growth-49742/

    1. It would be extremely surprising to not see a big/historic slowdown in solar and wind projects this year. Along with everything else capital requiring (except ventilators).
      Vehicle sales will crash worldwide. Peak vehicle? We can hope.

      1. Definitely Hickory, even prior to this event car sales worldwide were very weak.

  20. Here is an article on a report concerning the next pandemic, The report is from almost two years ago.
    Here are the proposed characteristics. Sound familiar?

    The report found that, in addition to being airborne, a pathogen with the potential to cause a global pandemic disaster would likely have the following traits:

    It would be contagious during the “incubation period,” before people show any symptoms, or when people have only mild symptoms.
    It would be a microbe that most people are not immune to, so there would be a large population of susceptible human hosts.
    It wouldn’t have an existing treatment or prevention method.
    It would have a “low but significant” fatality rate.
    Although the final trait may sound surprising, Adalja noted that a pathogen doesn’t have to have a high fatality rate, or kill the majority of people infected, to cause majority societal disruptions. “It just has to make a lot of people sick,” he told Live Science. (A pathogen with a high fatality rate could kill too many people too quickly, and therefore run out of “hosts” to spread further, the report noted.)

    https://www.livescience.com/62549-pandemic-pathogens.html

    1. That is a very small increase given the increase in population (330mm now vs 281mm in 2000, a 17% increase)
      rgds
      WP

  22. Every once in a while it is nice think about something besides the downfall of the world.
    Here is a nice summary of long term energy storage options-
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/most-promising-long-duration-storage-technologies-left-standing

    The second one presented is Energy Vault.
    They claim a 80-90% roundtrip energy conservation, which is impressive if achieved.
    No water needed. No chemicals for function. And , hey, no radioactivity.
    Maybe they can work carbon sequestering concrete into the package.
    https://energyvault.com/

      1. Yes, now that I have installed the tesla powerpack storage system, to accompany the PV array. It operates as a standalone system beginning within a fraction of second of grid interruption. Electronics unaffected.
        When I just had the PV array, the answer was no.

        I currently have 2-3 days of full electrical consumption storage capacity.
        And except in the darkest month, the solar can likely extend that indefinitely (since my average production is more than I need).
        I will be the first to acknowledge that this system purchase was initiated by the fire blackouts, that threatened my ability to do my work.

        Having it is a great sense of empowerment (pun intended) and security.

        1. Does your EV back up the powerpack storage off grid ?

          This lock down would suck with no electricity. No refrigerator, TV, Internet, laundry and lights.

          1. My plugin hybrid just gets charged up (from the grid, or the PV or the battery pack- depending on which is the best deal. It always happens at late night, so its from the battery in my scenario).
            The vehicle is not setup to give the electricity back to the system, but-
            This option is available, or on the verge of becoming available, with various manufacturers. I haven’t studied this thoroughly, yet, but I suspect all the major players will be offering this soon.
            Here is from Mitsubishi, for example.
            ‘Beginning this year in Japan and Europe, Mitsubishi is going to start selling what it calls the Dendo Drive House. It’s a solar platform, installed by professionals, that includes solar panels, a home battery, and a charger. And this home solar rig is also compatible with Mitsubishi’s electric and hybrid cars, like the newly announced Engleberg Tourer SUV–which is a four-wheel drive plug-in hybrid that can run 43 miles on its battery alone. The promise is that when solar power is plentiful (or even when grid energy is cheaper, like it is in some areas at night), you can charge up both your home and car battery. And when it’s not? If you’d prefer not to buy energy from the electric company–or if you’re just living through a power outage–you can manually drain your car battery as extra backup.’

            2. It always happens at late night, so its from the battery in my scenario

              Can you charge the car during the day, to avoid the losses through the battery?

            3. Sure, you can charge anytime.
              I intentionally charge at grid off-peak time.
              That way, during the day all PV generated electricity gets used for 1-current house consumption, 2- top off the battery, 3-supply the grid
              Perhaps there are scenarios where it would make sense to reorder the priorities.
              The cool thing is that the control systems are very customizable and adjustable.
              For example, the tesla system keeps track of the local weather forecast, and if a big storm is pending it will prioritize topping off the batteries. And it knows your grid time of use rates.

            4. I’m glad to hear that.

              I suppose this question depends on local conditions. If the daily consumption peak is still during mid-day, then charging at night is likely to help the grid.

              California solar power is starting to exceed daytime consumption, meaning that the daily minimum consumption mostly happens at mid-day. curtailment, which leads to curtailment of solar generation. I imagine they’re encouraging everyone to charge EVs during the day.

            5. That scenario is still rare here, maybe in the summer. The rates still are incentivized very heavily to charge at night from the grid.

            6. Thanks Hickory, I don’t have ac in the house here and average a little less than 10 kWh per day with April and May being lowest months. My monthly bill runs about $60. We also have here what we call June gloom which the sun doesn’t come out until about noon. I’m still a few years away from an EV. I’m thinking being able to be off grid independent has a lot of “empowerment” in an emergency. Can I ask ballpark the cost of the powerpack and installation?

              Thanks again

            7. In your scenario waiting until you have an EV may make economic sense. We too get summer coastal fog barreling in through the Gate.
              When all was said and done, the tesla power pack are about 5K per pack installed, with each about 14kwhr capacity or so, as I recall.

  26. World’s largest solar PV module factory planned for China

    Chinese sustainable energy company GCL System Integration is planning to build what would be the world’s largest solar PV module factory, capable of producing 60GW of solar panels each year.

    Bloomberg News reported on March 29, citing “a filing to the Shenzhen stock exchange on March 27,” that GCL System Integration was planning to invest 18 billion yuan ($A4.1 billion) of its own funds and loans to construct a new solar panel manufacturing plant in the eastern Chinese Hefei province that will be able to produce 60GW of solar panels per year.

    If plans proceed as announced, the new solar manufacturing plant means big plans ahead for China’s solar industry.

    While it suffered dramatically from Government policy failures and uncertainty in 2019, China installed a still respectable 30GW of new solar capacity – following 52.83GW installed in 2017 and 44.3GW installed in 2018. As such, the planned solar plant would be able to supply to almost 51% of global solar installations, according to Bloomberg, and boost GCL System’s ability to produce solar panels from 7.2GW more than nine-fold.

    In comparison, the world’s currently biggest solar panel manufacturer, JinkoSolar, has 16GW of manufacturing capacity.

    1. A couple guys in the german pv forum collected announcements on short term production expansion.

      tl;dr:
      400 GW of yearly pv panel production capacity worldwide is not unrealistic.

      That would be about four times the capacity installed in 2019.

  27. Here’s something WELL worth remembering. I think Twain may be credited for it, as a quote, by most authorities, but it’s been obvious to better writers since the earliest days, and to the brighter students of human nature old enough to have been watching their fellow naked apes a few decades or so.

    It’s WAY harder to convince somebody they have been fooled than it is to fool them in the first place.

    I can’t think of any particular remark about human nature that’s more accurate right off the top of my head.

    1. Hain’t we got all the fools in town on our side? And ain’t that a big enough majority in any town?
      – The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn

  28. I don’t have any real idea how long it will be before it’s actually cheaper to own a stand alone or grid tied personal pv plus battery system than it is to simply buy the power you want from your utility, but I’m willing to hazard a guess that if cheap long term financing can be had, it will be within five years in places with plenty of sun, and in less desirable places, with more cloudy weather and shorter winter days within ten years or so.

    And I mean without tax credits or tax subsidies, the only lucky break being a low interest long term loan.

    https://electrek.co/2020/04/01/tesla-biggest-solar-roof-installation/

    Any opinions as to this wild ass guess as to time frames will be more than welcome.

    And of course such a system should pay out a hell of a lot quicker if conventional panels are ground mounted for lower cost, where that’s possible.

    1. There are a number of places where off-grid systems are cheaper *most of the year*. This includes Australia and California.

      But covering seasonal shortages with renewables is much harder to cost justify for a household. Small wind turbines aren’t cost effective. Batteries are far too expensive for periods measured in weeks. If you’re willing to use a FF generator for that last 5% of consumption, then it will work just fine. Or, if you’re willing to hunker down with 25-50% of normal power consumption for a few weeks you could make it work (that requires a bit of overbuilding of the PV, which you’re likely to do anyway, combined with batteries).

      Utilities can justify seasonal backup far more easily. They can use multiple synergistic strategies, including diversity of supply (wind, nuclear, geothermal, etc); long distance transmission; etc. Underground storage of hydrogen is very cheap for a utility, but for a household??

    2. There are variables to that equation, such as
      -what are the current electric charges that you are going to offset
      -what is the cost of capital to purchase the equip
      -what is the annual solar output at the site in question
      -how long will you own the system
      -any incentives

      because this equipment can easily last 30 yrs, and financing can be long, like 30 yrs, and many utilities use the 30 yr timeframe, the 30-yr levelized cost is generally used to cost compare one source to another.
      I known that the PV system I bought (grid tied), when taking all these variables into account, the breakeven point is about 7 yrs. If I spread the analysis over 30 yrs, hell, I’d be ahead from the first month, by far. And by the end it would the best money I ever spent on a thing.
      The hard thing for most people to handle or digest, is the upfront cost. Like you said, if not cash paid, the low interest rate for financing is critical.
      Thats my take on it (brief version).

      The 30 yr cost analysis of various forms of electricity is here-
      https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019

      1. Hi Hickory, is an electric water heater fesable? Could the powerpack manage it’s energy use?

        1. I have heard of a new system that can manage all of the various loads individually. I can’t recall who the manufacturer was.
          It looked pretty slick, but I think it was best for a new home so that the circuits could be properly organized.
          So, I am not sure.

  29. Hmmm, twelve dollars per watt for nuclear. A PV panel costs $300 to produce 50 watts or $6/watt (at $1 per peak watt installed).
    Plus the cost of storage which is now about $200 per kWh. If half is stored for night use then cost is $8.40 per watt for 24 hour coverage. Multiply that by between 2 to 4 to take care of seasonal and weather variations (dependent upon latitude and cloudiness) and we get $16.80 per watt to $33.60 per watt for solar plus storage.

    But you can ignore my crude calculations and read about it elsewhere with optimum wind-solar mix and a study to cover 20 years of weather variations. It gets quite stark then wanders into some highly creative ways to get around a lot of that cost. But there are computers and sensors to run large systems. Much more complex than a symphony orchestra, that should be a sunny breeze if you don’t want power all of the time, or have your own backup systems.

    Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap?
    A cost-optimal wind-solar mix with storage reaches cost-competitiveness with a nuclear fission plant providing baseload electricity at a cost of $0.075/kWh at an energy storage capacity cost of $10-20/kWh. To reach cost- competitiveness with a peaker natural gas plant at $0.077/kWh, energy storage capacity costs must instead fall below $5/kWh (at a storage power capacity cost of $1,000/kW). To provide baseload, intermediate, bipeaker, and peaker electricity at $0.10/kWh with an optimal wind-solar mix, energy storage capacity costs must reach approximately $30–70/kWh, $30v90/kWh, $10–30/kWh, and $10–30/kWh respectively.

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity

    1. I was under the impression that these plants used the water then returned it to the river, albeit hotter than it went in. Would somebody please explain.

      NAOM

      1. Yes, that is correct. The water used is condenser water. The water in the boiler is used over and over again as it is highly treated to avoid corrosion. Only a tiny amount must be added each day as some steam always leaks out.

        But the condenser sits right under the turbine blades. There is a grid of at least a thousand long copper pipes which the river water passes through. The steam that exits from the turbine passes over these cool water pipes and is condensed back into water. The boiler water is cooled while the condenser water is heated. Sometimes cooling towers are used to cool the water before returning it to the river. So some water is lost to evaporation inside the cooling towers. However this is the only place where water is lost.

        The plant I worked at in Saudi Arabia did not use cooling towers. They just dumped the hot water right back into the Persian gulf, some distance away from the intake of course.

      2. The article states that the water consumption under discussion is the real, net loss:

        “… the amount consumed and never returned to rivers through runoff and treatment plants is crucial, Tellinghuisen explained. Power plant water in Colorado is largely consumed, lost to the air through cooling towers and evaporation.”

  31. Shopping yesterday, general observations.

    Traffic a little lighter than normal though not a lot. Less people in the street but still plenty around, little to no social distancing, had to tell one woman to keep her distance while I was in a queue. Still about 80-90% of shops open despite the local authorities claiming a much higher rate, they also seem to see less traffic than I do.

    Local farmacia’s toilet roll stock which had been holding up well is now almost gone. One woman queued up to ask for masks (no chance) while her blob of a son (imagine a potato sack filled with blancmange in size and structure) waddled around pawing at all stuff in reach on all the shelves.

    Wallymart, no sign of the masks and gloves they said they were distributing to associates. Lots of people with big family outings, had to get somewhat assertive to get around especially with stocking trolleys left in stupid positions. Rice gone, beans almost gone, flour practically gone, pasta okay, oil and toilet paper depleted, bleach so so, managed to get a sanitiser spray. All the packets of instant dessert blancmanges etc gone.

    La Comer now has perspex screens between the cashiers and the clients, not big but cover the basics. More people wearing masks, some with gloves even in their Marigolds. Mexicans wear their masks much better than gringos, some of those have absolutely no clue. One gringo had a terrible cough, really bad, no mask, not covering his mouth, just standing there blasting it straight out. I left the area rapidly and kept a good eye out for him to keep clear. Most stocks seemed ok but bleach seemed to be going down, hard to tell as they have put up big displays of the common stuff.

    NAOM

    1. Have a friend in Bucerias–
      He has closed down his Bar, but opening some rental units.
      Maybe I’ll go down and hang for a while.

      1. Don’t, a couple more weeks it will be spreading like wildfire here. Easter is in just over a week, a perfect stirring pot for the disease. I am already seeing out of state plates and am certain that silent spreading is going on.

        NAOM

    2. Thanks for the update.
      “Don’t, a couple more weeks it will be spreading like wildfire here.”
      I fear you have it right.
      Be invisible, as best you can.

      1. We are at the case stage, by Easter or the week after I think we may be getting into the cluster stage especially as many will come from Guadalajara where there are many more cases. Don’t need to tell you that the boom stage comes next.

        Latest news is that tourist resources are to be closed; bars, hotels beach attractions etc also religious peregrinations. Need to check out some mods on my other bike so I may take an exercise run downtown, Saturday, and see how things look. Had a couple of maroons go off earlier, churches use these as a countdown to their fiesta so somewhere around here they plan on having a virus distribution party 🙁

        NAOM

  32. A mechanical technique for PV module recycling

    An Italian consortium has developed a panel recycling process it claims can recover up to 99% of raw materials. The developers claim their technique takes only 40 seconds to fully recycle a standard panel, depending on size and recycling site conditions.

    Italian PV module recycling consortium La Mia Energia says the Photo Voltaic Panel Mobile Recycling Device (PV-MoReDe) it has developed can almost completely recover raw materials including furnace-ready glass, silicon, copper and aluminum.

    The process differs from conventional thermo-chemical panel recycling approaches by using a series of patented mechanical steps. Mia Energia said its technique can recycle any kind of PV panels in any state, including broken and soiled items.

    “The most important part is glass separation,” said Mauro Zilio, owner of Italian PV recycling company Yousolar, which is part of the Mia Energia consortium. “White glass is in great demand because it is difficult to find it without impurities.”

  33. Re: Virus Transmission
    “Although other factors probably contribute as well, the main reason we have a flu season may simply be that the influenza virus is happier in cold, dry weather and thus better able to invade our bodies. So, as the temperature and humidity keep dropping, your best bet for warding off this nasty bug is to get your flu shot ASAP, stay warm, and invest in a humidifier.”

    I’m no expert but I think the SIMPLE explanation is sinuses fail to protect the respiratory system when dry. What can you do?
    A. Use Ductless Heat pumps.
    B. Avoid spaces with High Temp Resistive or Nat Gas Heating
    C. Protect your Lungs – Get closer to Trees and away from Traffic, Stop Lights, Drive Thru’s. etc.
    D. Learn to Breath and exercise the Lungs. ie Yoga.
    E. Kiss a Dog
    http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

    1. “ I’m no expert but I think the SIMPLE explanation is sinuses fail to protect the respiratory system when dry.”

      Longtimber,

      It’s about the virus, not the sinuses

      Yang and coauthors [40] propose that the effect of RH on virus viability is mediated by salt concentration within droplets: at high RH (80% or higher), physiological concentrations are maintained and viruses are relatively stable; at intermediate RH, evaporation leads to increased salt concentration, resulting in virus inactivation; and at low RH (<50%), salts crystallize out of solution, yielding low salt concentrations and high virion stability.

      The best is warm/hot weather with intermediate relative humidity (RH)
      If high viral load drops/líquid enter the respiratoy system it’s too late.

  34. Apparently one of the most important issues in America is tissue, specifically toilet tissue. Who would have known? But reality has a way of ASSerting itself. One can go into a food supermarket in one of the states near the top of the list for corona virus cases to see every aisle and shelf stocked full, except (you guessed it) the paper products aisle. Rolls of toilet paper, packs of napkins, facial tissues and rolls of paper towels are totally missing. MT.
    Why?
    Now one of those toilet paper rolls contains 1000 sheets. If one uses 60 sheets a day (to be generous) that means a pack of four rolls would last more than two months per person. Three packs would get one thought until the fall. Let me be the first to tell you, if the economy is shut down until then, TP will be the least of your worries. No amount of TP will handle TSHTF.

    Do Americans have very seriously dirty bums or maybe they have found other uses for it? Will it become the new currency as it’s value rises and the dollar becomes just paper? Mysterious hoarding. Will the paper mills just close and leave us
    Hint, don’t use it to clean the windshield of that car you don’t drive anymore. That’s where your old underwear comes in useful.

    But not to worry, there is good news for Mehoopany, Pa.
    https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2020/03/19/p-g-s-charmin-plant-exempt-from-coronavirus.html

    The scary question is, if Americans are so rotten as to hoard things like toilet paper so their neighbors don’t have access to any while things are still quite good, what will they be capable of when things actually get bad?

  37. Sometimes you can get a person to see just how mistaken they have been in political terms by showing them a single fact or pointing out a single false argument.
    Here’s one that has shut up two or three orangutan voters for me…… leaving them red faced and embarrassed. I’m not saying they will change their ways, but they sure as hell aren’t shooting off their mouths about how great he is the way they did a month ago.

    Forward this news excerpt to any orangutan fans you know who will watch it if you put a click bait comment up top indicating it’s about how great t rump is.
    By the time they can figure it out, they will have watched it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KabJu8MwwxI

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