13 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, June 13, 2021”

    1. Three of the most popular robots in 2050 will be those that can care for disabled people, those that can guard privileged places, and those than can harvest materials for recycling.

      1. Hickory as usual is close if not in the bullseye, lol.

        My personal guess is that between now and then, we will see the minimum age for collecting various old age welfare benefits raised by as much as ten years to help maintain some semblance of financial stability.

        Tens of millions of younger people, and some older ones too, will be working as personal servants, although the word servant won’t likely be used much in describing such jobs.

  2. Not good if true. Of course other tipping points may be in the pipeline as well and some argue we are on the cusp of a cascade of tipping points.

    IRREVERSIBLE WARMING TIPPING POINT POSSIBLY TRIGGERED

    “The disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic is one of the first landmines in this minefield, one of the tipping points that we set off first when we push warming too far. And one can essentially ask if we haven’t already stepped on this mine and already set off the beginning of the explosion.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-06-irreversible-possibly-triggered-arctic-mission.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      G7 OFFERS ‘PEANUTS’ TO DEVELOPING WORLD, PUTTING CLIMATE AMBITION IN DOUBT

      “As G7 leaders left the sunny beaches of Cornwall, UK, following a three-day meeting of gourmet food and aerobatic displays, there was little to celebrate for the world’s most climate vulnerable nations. The group of major economies failed to match their commitment to holding global heating below 1.5C – the tougher goal of the Paris Agreement – with the climate finance developing countries need to keep that goal within reach.”

      https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/06/14/g7-offers-peanuts-developing-world-putting-climate-ambition-doubt/

  3. Texas, like most red states, takes in more federal dollars then they send to Washington DC; instead of merely calling Governor Abbott “corrupt” it’s probably also time to call him a “welfare queen,” a phrase much beloved of Republicans, at least when they apply it to Black women.

    Delusional me– I thought Texas, with the second largest GNP of a State, would be helping its Red State friends.
    Nope, taking cash from its Blue Friends.
    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised?

  4. The hundred poorest counties are about ninety to ninety five percent located in the red states, lol.

  5. I’m not having much luck finding out just how big a population must be to support a highly industrialized, reasonably self sufficient economy…… meaning by self sufficient that while some resources and materials are imported, and some exported, in both raw and finished goods, the country can be pretty much self sufficient in terms of processing and manufacturing any and more or less all ESSENTIAL goods.

    Consider the WWII era USA for instance. We were dependent on some imported materials, but we had to import next to nothing in terms of essential goods ranging from machine tools to food to medicines etc.

    I’m not arguing, or about to argue, that a highly diversified economy with lots of international trade is a bad thing, far from it, not at all.

    What I am trying to do is understand just how tough it would be for a country such as the USA, or the USA plus Canada, or plus Western Europe, to maintain a high standard of industrial capacity in all essential industries.

    Let’s suppose that in the case of raw materials obtainable only from outside these countries, it’s possible to trade for them……. in raw form….. or substitute something else for them…… or in the last analysis, just go to war and take them, as was commonly done pretty much all thru known history.

    1. the country can be pretty much self sufficient in terms of processing and manufacturing any and more or less all ESSENTIAL goods.

      Russia imports very little, and exports both oil and agriculture.
      Immense country, with a moderate, and well educated population.

      Import of Goods (million USD) 254,598
      Exports of Goods (million USD) 419,850
      (2019)

    2. Not so sure the size of a country population is a key ingredient to self-sufficiency. It is more about being well-endowed with raw materials (including good soil and water), and having good intellectual/cultural capital.
      Our modern society has such complex needs that self-sufficiency is unlikely to be achieved by anyone, without going through an abrupt and profound process of simplification.
      A more realistic tactic is to have plenty of trusted trading partners, and to remain as competitive and agile as possible.
      I suppose.

      The whole semiconductor supply issue this year, and the geo-politics of China-Taiwan, is an interesting example of this whole concern.
      https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/16/semiconductors-us-china-taiwan-technology-innovation-competition/
      https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/supply-chains-and-semiconductors-the-need-for-u-s-diplomacy/

      1. Hicks , globalisation was the last hurrah . As it winds down , so will industrial civilisation . Your viewpoint is correct . Complexity and connectivity are not ” anti fragile ” as Naseem Taleb has postulated .

      2. Hi Hickory,

        I mostly agree with you, but ….

        It seems fairly obvious to me that in order to be basically or mostly self reliant, a country must have an adequate resource base…… agreed.

        But unless it’s a pretty big country, it seems very unlikely that it could possess so many natural resources, and it also seems fairly obvious that it must have a large enough and well educated enough population to enable the many industries essential to a modern civilization to run at scale.

        I don’t really have any idea how big the population would have to be, but as Hightrekker points out, Russia has about a hundred fifty million people and is obviously capable of being more or less self sufficient in terms of heavy industry, health care, food supply, etc.

        This is not to say the Russians make the best computer chips…. but they make chips that can get the job done to an adequate extent.

        They may not have the best vaccines, or xray machines, or cars, but the ones they have do work well enough for the country to function.

        I agree fully that “A more realistic tactic is to have plenty of trusted trading partners, and to remain as competitive and agile as possible.” is a highly desirable state of affairs, no argument at all.

        But when ( there may not be any IF about it) the shit is once well and truly in the fan, and industrial civilization as we know it today starts caving in on itself, some countries are going to survive, or at least hang on, a LOT longer than others. Some may survive more or less indefinitely while still being able to provide modern goods and services such as clean water, food in stores, good basic public health delivery, decent housing, etc.

        I believe but do not know for sure that the USA, especially in partnership with Canada, and maybe Western Europe, could hang on and make it just fine without worrying at all about Asia… other than maybe in terms of global pollution and outright wars.

        We didn’t have any problems providing ourselves with toys, appliances, cars, or much of anything else prior to globalization.

        My goal is to understand the possibilities and options available to us, in terms of our own personal and national security, once overshoot starts taking really big bites out of globalization’s ass.

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