39 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 15, 2022”

  2. People who don’t want to change, for fear of change, or because they don’t like the people proposing change, or any other reason, DON’T think.

    They just react.

    So……. on Quora, where there’s a huge but still way too small audience discussing such matters as wind and solar power, the naysayers inevitably focus strictly on the negatives, which are as often as not the fault of the developers, rather than the technology itself.

    So right now they’re having a ball, or a figurative wind farm burning, because the wind isn’t blowing in Texas, and so there’s almost no wind power to help them with ANOTHER all time record busting heat wave.

    It’s a near total waste of time to explain to them that Texas SHOULD have operated the local grid with the primary goal being to make sure there’s always enough affordable electricity available. Nope, they’re hard core free marketers, when you bring THAT up, and you’re a pink commie libtard.

    So they were ok with Texas being a world leader in wind power, because they never even NOTICED THAT, prior to the big storm last year, or the heat wave today.

    Utilities in the last analysis are, if not outright and literal monopolies, industries that must be regulated somewhat like monopolies, in order to protect their customers, the PUBLIC, from their primary reason for existence……. to make money, the more the better.

    A properly executed system wide electricity plan for Texas would include building solar farms a LOT faster, and wind farms somewhat slower, which would mean that they would have plenty of solar electricity now to help them thru with air conditioning and so forth.

    But the emphasis was and remains on PROFITS, which are wonderful and necessary, but not sacrosanct.

    Try telling these naysayers that the coal fired power plants in Texas are mostly about fifty years old, and worn slam out, etc, and that proper management of the electrical utility industry would have involved building more solar, by slowing down on wind, short term………. OR building some new coal and gas fired plants, because without wind and solar, they would have been needed anyway.

    Most people, even most well educated people, would rather die than think about changing their habits and ways of thinking about their enemies, real or perceived.

    So my dyed in the wool liberal friends and acquaintances are pretty much dead set against the private ownership of firearms…… although they could probably save more lives and agony easier, by putting the same amount of energy into other causes which are less controversial, politically.

    I will hand them this, however. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, they have mostly opened their eyes to the obvious ( to me at least) fact that a robust military establishment, and organizations such as NATO, are ESSENTIAL, or barring that near miracle, they have at least pretty much quit badmouthing our military people.

    Handing a hard core right winger anything is pretty much a useless endeavor, unless it happens to be a welfare check or subsidy for his business or industry.

    The less money, the greater the poverty, the greater the likelihood that a white person will be a hard core right winger. Poor people in nearby West Virginia are among the WORST of welfare mooches …….. and I PERSONALLY am not bad mouthing them………. I’m just REPEATING one of the names their LEADERS call them, in stump speeches….. and on TV, on a regular basis. They’re also more likely to vote for Trump type politicians than just about any other people anywhere, except for equally poor and equally ill educated white communities on some southern states.

    Notice that the PC and liberal establishment have trained me to say ill educated rather than ignorant, or stupid, lol.

    And if by chance he does have some money……… well in that case a subsidy for his own business or industry is ESSENTIAL to our national security, and our national prosperity, etc, because otherwise….. foreign workers will have all those jobs…….. because they’ll export their work to overseas companies.

    Globalization, in general, seems to be a big economic and security plus, according to its hard core supporters. The thinking is that countries that export don’t want to lose their customers, so they don’t start wars,etc, and that they don’t want to be cut off from imports not readily available otherwise……. but history proves otherwise…….. as it has done over the last few months.

    And while globalization obviously means greater prosperity for the middle class, and upper class, in general, it really and truly does mean misery for people who lose their jobs as a result, with the vast majority of them being in a position such that finding a comparable job, at their age, considering their educational status, etc, is unlikely at best.

    And then in the end…….. well, the English used to use us Yankees as a primary source for raw materials, and applied as much pressure as they could to force us to buy those same materials back, in finished form.

    Then we grew up, and took their place as the primary industrial power, and we’ve been using the rest of the world as OUR source of raw materials ( plus depleting our own, obviously) for the last century or so, up until recently. Now I can’t buy a proper oak board for less than a hundred bucks, so help me Jesus, because the only way I can get one is to buy it from a cabinet maker or business sells to furniture makers that charge thousands of dollars for an armchair, etc.

    But there’s a lumber yard twelve miles away that has been loading up the last of the really nice oak logs from miles around for the last fifteen or twenty years…… to be hauled to Norfolk , and loaded for China or the Middle East. We get back furniture made out of the sawdust of course, lol.

    But this is trivial. China has shown without any shadow of a doubt, unless you just WANT to believe otherwise, that the PLAN is to OWN the critical industries of the future….. and use the rest of the world the way the Romans used other people, the way the English used us and others, and the way we Americans have used the rest of the world for the last century or so….

    If we fail to see that, and it looks as if we HAVE failed to see it, or at least that we are in great danger of failing to see it before it’s TOO LATE…….. well, we’ll be the second class citizens in another generation or so, assuming OLD MAN BUSINESS AS USUAL continues to hobble along.

    The Russians believe they can get away with Ukraine, and after that……. one or another neighboring country……… because they RIGHTLY estimated that neither we nor anybody else is at all likely to put troops on the ground and planes in the air to stop them….. because they’re a nuclear power…….. and because they believe that the rest of the world will continue to buy Russian oil and gas….. which is likely also true, in general terms, since Europeans can buy the oil formerly exported by the Saudis and their neighbors to China and India. The Russians are suffering domestically right now, no question……. but the leadership there doesn’t give a damn about the people, so long as their own positions are secure….. and in the end, they’re betting on having very strong and profitable relationships with both India and China, in my estimation, plus of course any other country willing to trade with them.

    Nothing is simple anymore, but every body has a BURNING , OVERWHELMING desire for simplicity. There aren’t any easy answers.

    We’re doomed to live in interesting times.

    If I don’t stop NOW, I WILL have been going on all day before long, lol.

    2. “All those moments will be lost in time . . . like tears in rain.”

      1. “every body has a BURNING , OVERWHELMING desire for simplicity. There aren’t any easy answers.” Not everyone.

        “STICK A FORK IN IT” (F-)- Used to indicate that something or someone is finished, or, in a broader sense, defeated or ruined”

        “quit·ter- a person who gives up easily or does not have the courage or determination to finish a task”

        *

        “lead·er·ship- the action of leading a group of people or an organization”

        (CNN)Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Thursday that Ukraine is unwilling to cede any of its land to Russia, standing firm that a concession of Ukrainian territory won’t be part of any diplomatic negotiations to end the war.

        “Ukrainians are not ready to give away their land, to accept that these territories belong to Russia. This is our land,” Zelensky said in an exclusive interview aired Thursday on CNN’s “The Situation Room.”
        “We always talk about that, and we are intending to prove it,” he added.

        https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.html

        “15 Call To Action Examples (and How to Write the Perfect CTA). A call to action or a CTA is a written directive used in marketing campaigns. It helps encourage website visitors to take the desired action. A call to action can take up different forms:”

        https://adespresso.com/blog/call-to-action-examples/

        “What Is a Call to Action (CTA)?
        A call to action is an invitation for a user to take some desired action. You often see call to action examples in persuasive writing. Once a brand has made its case in a blog post or video, for instance, they’ll often include a call to action at the end.

        A political action group may write a piece on the importance of voting in the next election, for example. Their piece would probably end with a call for readers to register to vote with a link to a voter registration form.”

        https://www.crazyegg.com/blog/call-to-action-examples/

        First they came for the Communists
        And I did not speak out
        Because I was not a Communist
        Then they came for the Socialists
        And I did not speak out
        Because I was not a Socialist
        Then they came for the trade unionists
        And I did not speak out
        Because I was not a trade unionist
        Then they came for the Jews
        And I did not speak out
        Because I was not a Jew
        Then they came for me
        And there was no one left
        To speak out for me

        What does the phrase “pay me now or pay later” mean?

        Was OFM post a CTA or a surrender ? I guess it depends on your character.

        1. Then they came for me
          … and it was the worst day of their life, cuz I speak out for myself. lolz

          I also speak out for others. I teach self defense, pro bono (tips appreciated), to the handicapped LGBTQ crowd. I dig it the most daddy-o.

          PS- who’s coming, Proud Boys? Pro tip- they lack muzzle etiquette and frequently shoot each other when they bunch up in tight groups; it’s an embarrassing thing to do, so they blame ANTIFA for it. Pure comedy gold.

        2. Hi Madeline,
          I haven’t said so until now, although I should have.

          Welcome to this forum!

          My post is partly just a rant. It should be interpreted as a call to arms. I’m assuming the reader can recognize sarcasm, as well as comprehend the broad outlines of history. The people in this forum generally have at least two or three working brain cells, lol.

          Assuming the reader has a working brain and a backbone, morally speaking, then the only possible conclusion is that action is essential………. because otherwise……. his or her children will be part of a new world order…… the UNDERCLASS of that new order.

    1. Article does a very good job of giving a glimpse into the complexity of the whole evolution process/history
      Thank you (a favorite topic of mine)

      “When they told their tree-building software to focus only on regions of the genome that Prum’s team used, it produced a tree that looked like Prum’s. When they shifted focus to other regions, a very different tree emerged. When they divided their bird genomes into thousands of different parts and ran each through their software, they got thousands of different trees, and not one completely matched the “species tree” they had constructed from large portions of genomes. “Different parts of the genome have different stories,” Gilbert realized. Genes do not stay in the lanes of common ancestry but can move much more unpredictably, like zigzagging pieces on a Plinko board. Scientists call this kind of genetic scrambling “incomplete lineage sorting,” and it is especially common during rapid bursts of evolution, such as the one that gave rise to modern birds…
      In 2016 “…superimposed all the different gene trees they had generated. The resulting image of the early evolution of modern birds, around the time the dinosaurs went extinct, was not a tidy series of diverging branches but a kind of web or fishnet, whose contours constantly crossed paths. In a paper, Suh urged his colleagues to consider other patterns of evolution—to argue “less about which species tree is ‘correct,’ and more about if there is such a thing” as a traditional tree of life for modern birds.”

      2. This is why I’m more of a lumper than a splitter.

        Which species comes from which species is an academic question I cannot really get into the weeds of.

        That all species are ultimately related is fantastically interesting. Birds are dinosaurs. Good enough.

        1. I have been periodically digging through a book that looks at the process of genetic and biochemistry evolution rather than the evolution of the particular species, and if you have some chemistry/biochemistry background enough to keep up the discussion somewhat- it is a fascinating mental journey.
          How did the early components of basic metabolism like photosynthesis come to be and which variations became dominant in which organism types. You can get a glimpse of just how much endless experimentation has occurred, and how much transfer of genetic packets has happened across the thousands of branches.
          It is mind-blowing.

          the best ‘tree of life’ I have seen is linked here. It is in a continual process of fine tuning as more genetic evidence comes to light. It is worth a heavy browse for anyone, at minimum.
          Start at the base and try to find us, or some other organism. At the branch points the time of common ancestry for the organisms beyond is indicated as best evidence indicates-
          http://www.onezoom.org/life/@cellular_organisms=93302#x264,y760,w1.0993

  5. I thought a proper soundtrack was needed for our current situation, so here´s my suggestion:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sgycukafqQ

    Btw. It´s not only a good music video, it´s also covering quite a few of our discussions, albeit in short cuts…
    Edit, by a quite famous american band non the less, so there is some hope.

  7. Is this for real?

    https://www.goesfoundation.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4ffwzLCw-o

    “We are too late to stop climate change with carbon mitigation. Even if we became carbon neutral tomorrow, atmospheric carbon dioxide will pass 500ppm and oceanic pH will drop below pH 7.95 and most life in the oceans will simply dissolve over the next 25 years, along with the food supply for 2 billion people. We will have uncontrollable climate change because we will have lost the life support system for the planet that actually regulates the climate.
    “GOES have identified the root cause is not carbon dioxide, but toxic forever chemicals that have oil like lipophilic properties that get adsorbed onto plastic particles and partially combusted carbon from the burning of fossil fuels.”

    If true this would seem to be a bigger issue than the ozone hole as a threat for near term human extinction. Not just because of the threat to climate change as the biggest carbon sink was lost but because all the food webs around the world would collapse. Discussion of any other global risk would seem a bit irrelevant. On the other hand surely there would be more in the news about it and a few papers in scientific journals, but I’ve seen none.

    1. That’s gotta be another one of those grifts to hoodwink the ignorant, no mainstream outlets are picking it up.

  8. Does anybody have a list of former net oil exporting countries that are now net importers and the dates at which they switched columns?
    Thanks in advance !

    1. OFM – Looks like the mid 1990’s for the most part (China – 1995, Peru – 1994, Trinidad & Tobago – 1994), didn’t look too close, but you can download the BP data if you want to check closer. UK was an exporter until 2005.

      1. I guess you think of the Energy Export Databrowser at Mazamascience, used to check it monthly or so a couple of years ago. Maybe a suggestion to Dr Callahan, who apparently created it, to update it would be successful?
        It was really good!

        1. That’s the one.
          If it’s still up it will have some data OFM seems.
          OFMs query perhaps concerns Export Land Model as it pertains to historical data.

  9. “We have a choice. Collective action or collective suicide.”
    —United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres

  10. Human Extinction by 2025?
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html?m=1

    As I’ve said before, this hypothesis is negated by my prediction that I’ll still be around in 2026. I see some Mennonite looking folks around (Little House on the Prairie meets New Balance shoes); I bet they’ll have more food canned up than I do, and will last a decade after the last harvest. Perhaps just a good portion will be gone by 2025. I assume famine is the primary mechanism, as well as low income seniors who lack A/C.

    1. Local Peoples Court got me thinking of “She turned me into a newt, but I got better”, so I would not put too much trust in it. Besides, my stockpile will hopefully last longer. If it would have been 2035 or so, then maybe…

    2. Big dying? Perhaps. Extinction, though? Notta chance.

      (I have to say–at the link, that Global ocean heat content change graph is a m-therf-cker.)

  11. “As large and increasing numbers press more heavily upon available resources, the economic position of the society undergoing this ordeal becomes ever more precarious.”

    —-Aldous Huxley

  12. NATURAL SYSTEMS IN AUSTRALIA ARE UNRAVELING. IF THEY COLLAPSE, HUMAN SOCIETY COULD TOO

    In the long-delayed State of the Environment report released this week, there is one terrifying sentence: “Environmental degradation is now considered a threat to humanity, which could bring about societal collapses.” Hyperbole? Sadly not.

    The long-delayed report shows the sobering consequences of willful disregard for environmental protection and focusing on natural resource exploitation. Burning fossil fuels causes climate change and ocean acidification. Land clearing destroys existing ecosystems. Intensive agriculture reduces biodiversity.

    Our land temperatures have increased by 1.44°C since 1910. Very high monthly maximum temperatures have increased sixfold over the 60-year period since 1960. These effects have come from a 1.1℃ rise globally. We’re still on track for 3℃. This is highly problematic as humans have limited capacity to withstand heat exposure, and ecosystems suffer in the heat.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-07-natural-australia-unraveling-collapse-human.html

    1. It is interesting just how blind to, or tolerant of, environmental degradation humans are.
      We look around as we grow up and see what everyone around us does and those before us have done,
      and we quickly come to see extremely destructive (and cruel) behavior
      as normal.
      Whether it is cutting down forests or the slaughter of animals, the building of an airport and flying on plane,
      the smelter by the waters edge, or cropland filling the whole valley…a thousand examples.
      Its just normal business of the ugly tribe.

      1. Meanwhile, according to the OilPRICE.COM folk,

        THE WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES ARE RAMPING UP COAL CONSUMPTION

        “In the US, coal production has risen significantly from last year. Europe is up as well, of course. And, China and India are both boosting coal imports. Earlier this year, Beijing capped coal prices and pushed for more coal production. Already, the country’s 60% power requirement comes from coal. Of course, coal miners were reportedly quick to take advantage of the price cap to up production. Now, China has decided to increase its reliance on low-cost coal to help boost its economy and push past temporary power shortages.

        India, the world’s second-biggest coal importer, saw record thermal coal deliveries. In fact, the country’s thermal coal imports were up 35% to 19.22 million tons in June this year. That’s 56% above levels seen in June 2021. Many will note that thermal coal is mainly used to generate electricity. It is not classified as a metallurgical or “coking” coal.”

        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/The-Worlds-Largest-Economies-Are-Ramping-Up-Coal-Consumption.html

        1. Let us not forget this piece of wisdom from Charles Darwin:

          [W]e may confidently assert, that all plants and animals [and that means us] are tending to increase at a geometrical ratio, that all [including us] would most rapidly stock every station in which they could any how exist, and that the geometrical tendency to increase must be checked by destruction at some period of life.

          It is our genetic imperative to grow and grow until we can’t anymore. We have effectively removed all those “checks” that govern the growth of the rest of life, but we can’t control everything–especially our own collective behavior.

          That we have no control over. “Destruction,” however it arrives, is certain.

          1. Mike-
            Can humans use their brain to buck the genetic tendency?

            I think so, but it takes a concerted effort.
            And therefore only a small number of people give it a decent attempt.

            Religions and Political entities have seen it contrary to their interests, to promote self-control to the extent that growth of their franchise would be hindered.

  13. All – great posts over here.

    But could the “Open” thread be renamed to ‘EVs, renewables, and fantasyland’…I think it would help balance out the participation (right now >300 comments in the petroleum thread, and 30 comments here)….I’m mostly joking of course…

    1. Doug L. is perhaps slightly responsible for this category still maintaining it’s “Open” designation. I hope he’s not too old to still be here for a long time.

  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozqSdnkYxJM
    This is worth watching, for sure.
    I thought I knew all about this car, but I found out I knew a couple of things that weren’t so, as Twain put it so well.

    It’s my personal opinion, keeping in mind that I am NOT an engineer, that such a car could be built today, if car companies were mandated to build a certain number of them, supposing they DON’T sell well, for well under fifty thousand dollars.
    Batteries are good enough and cheap enough now to just do away with the diesel, except maybe as an option, and carbon fiber is way cheaper than back then. Ditto any and all electronics.

    The really important thing about this design is the ultra low drag, achieved by the contours of the car, and by reducing the weight to under a ton.
    Adding some weight to the battery, but doing away with the diesel, transmission, and some or most of the carbon fiber in favor of aluminum would for a rough SWAG ( scientific wild ass guess) get you a car that would run on a third of the kilowatt hours needed by a new Tesla Three.

    Keeping the diesel but doing away with all the electric drive parts would probably result in well over a hundred mpg, and that’s getting into the territory where, if NECESSARY, we could afford some synthetic liquid fuel, in case the battery industry hits an upper limit due to raw material problems.

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