126 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, February 14, 2021”

  1. https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/endgame-2050/

    Endgame 2050 looks three decades into our future to visualize the fate that awaits us all if we do not act now. The film opens with a 15-minute narrative short that imagines that potential future. In these scenarios, we have systematically decimated the complex bio-diversities which have developed over the course of billions of years.

    1. Probably best to hedge your bet, protect the downside risk; for after all, the probability of ‘we taking correct action now’ seems rather small.
      To all concerned: what do you feel the probability is of ‘We taking correction action now’ to the degree that it is required? Anybody into back up plans?

      1. Survivalist. I think the point of Rees (and so many others) is that there is no role for ‘backup plans’.
        All such measures should be the only plan.
        If you are waiting for empty shelves, blackouts or civil unrest to come to your county, you have waited too long. And if you have voted for people who don’t even want to acknowledge the realities of overshoot and ecological homicide, you have have played the role of the greedy fool.

        1. My back up plan is to die of old age, not starvation and/or famine related violence. I think I got it figured out. Perhaps some of your ancestors had this sort of plan and contributed to your eventual existence? Others may prefer alternate sorts of arrangements I suppose.
          Rees, IMHO, is doing what’s called ‘constructing the problem definition’. It’s rather hard to come to solutions/mitigation’s without an accurate construction of the problem definition.
          What’s your plan? All eggs in the ‘we taking correct action now’ basket, and suffer the consequences if that fails? Seems like a poor example of risk analysis and mitigation. I fail to see what greed has to do with preparing for a climate induced harvest failure. Am I greedy because I’m a prepper? Very Monbiot.

          PS- I voted Green Party, as usual. How about you? Do you vote for politicians who acknowledge the realities of overshoot and ecological homicide? If so, have they articulated any policies on what’s so be done about it, and are those policies sufficient?

          PSS- What do you feel the probability is of ‘We taking correction action now’. What’s your plan if we don’t, curl up and die?

          PSSS- what’s your take on this?
          https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/climate-change-and-famine.pdf
          Valid analysis of just a bunch of misanthropists?

          1. Voting “Green Party” is a lot like masturbation. It makes you feel good, but it’s not going to affect anybody else.

            There’s a lot more to life than growing old and thousand times more risks out there than growing old dying of hunger. After over 25 years in the insurance industry I know, they will sell you risk coverage for anything and everything until your insurance poor. Half of all Americans don’t have $1000 for an emergency.

            My 94 year old mother with Alzheimer’s, almost blind, can’t walk, barely can rise her arms or use her hands. Has told me 6 times over the last 3 years, she just wants to dies. She has no quality of life. Now she lives in a board and care for $7500 a month and they change her diaper and feed her. Her life has only been extended as long as it has is because of others in a social economic system.

            A few years ago, back in the days of assisted living. I went down to pick up my mothers mail to find another 90 plus old lady struggling to put her key in the mailbox lock. Standing behind her I said “getting old is not for sissies”. She turned around to me and said “I just want to die”.

            1. Sounds to me like the techno cornucopian Fanbois are getting a little bleak on the future. Perhaps the famine induced population bottleneck will not select favorably for them. I’ll likely live as long as I can and then die when I have to. Others may prefer alternate arrangements.
              My hope is that the Green Party gets enough votes to get into the formal debates. That would be nice. That’s why I voted for them. You may not prefer it as expanded debate and dialogue from the Green Patty doesn’t align with your corporate values.

              “When faced with information that does not agree with their [preformed] internal structures, they deny, discredit, reinterpret or forget that information” – Wexler.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oVTHKzC7TM

              Typical Biden Bros.

            2. That is why there is now a push for assisted suicide these days, before dementia sets in. My mom had the tough old bird body that kept ticking away until age 99. For the last few years I didn’t know if her Alzheimers even allowed my words and visits to sink in? The only good thing was her care, a BC Govt facility. Their policy was payment of 80% of her net income, which ended up being about $1700 per month for excellent care. The remainder was subsidised. That is the policy here, and after Covid the days of private operators are most likely numbered as Govt tightens up on the differing care standards and pay scales. Private care for more wealthy individuals ranges between $6K-$13K, depending on how luxurious the facility is.

              Coincidentally, I am selling my MC this month which I purchased to go see my mom….for cheap transportation the 50 miles each way. That was the only bright spot, that and getting to know the staff and residents. One care aid purchased a property right next door to us last summer. She did a good job.

              I used to tell myself every visit that no one wanted to be there and no one thought they would ever end up in extended care. I always visited with a few other residents because of that. One guy, a retired engineer, made up a house band. He had suffered a stroke and could only play keyboards with one hand, but damned if they weren’t pretty good. Of course some of the guys were given guitars with no strings. 🙂 They had a lot of fun with it.

          2. Survivalist-
            that link -https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/climate-change-and-famine.pdf
            is a solid summary of the global food production risks in my opinion.
            At the end they say-
            “This is the future that awaits us if we fail to act.”
            I take a degree of issue with this. These things will happen regardless of how we act, but can be much worse if we pretend to be stupid, and do little to adapt.

            I plan a different course than you. I do not plan to die of old age. I’ve seen that path, and think its very overrated. I plan to go earlier.

            1. So what’s the plan Hick? What shall we do so as we can’t be accused of failing to act? Can Biden articulate a policy, or is it just gonna be more of the same, by which I mean unfurling moral exhortations as he unTrumps a few things. What do you think the probability is of humanity taking the necessary and sufficient action, whatever it’s is? My WAG is it’s very low, and as such I’ll be having some back up plans for when the harvest problems begin. What benefit is there in not preparing for that?

              On the weather depends the harvest, on the harvest depends everything ~ apocryphal

              https://phys.org/news/2020-06-latest-climate-intense-droughts.html

              “Yield volatility is gonna go through the roof”
              Climate Change and Global Food Security: Prof David Battisti
              https://youtu.be/YToMoNPwTFc?t=45m36s

        2. “ If you are waiting for empty shelves, blackouts or civil unrest to come to your county, you have waited too long.” Hick, on February 15, 2021

          Indeed. One wouldn’t want to come off sounding like a fool, eh Hick? Have you ever consider a career shift to life coach?

          ‘Just crippling’: Texans devastated by ice storm are now hunting empty shelves for food and water
          https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/18/texas-ice-storm-power-outage-food-water/4497383001/

          Texas weather: Residents told to boil tap water amid power blackouts
          https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56109720

      2. The old, “I’ll be ___________ old in 2050”. 🙂 Other than doing our best around the house and in our lives, my kids will inherit our assets and hopefully a decent example.

        I don’t think much will seriously get done as long as people out there believe buying a Tesla or other EV is much/most of the solution. Transportation contribution to GHG is 28% in US and 23% in Canada according to the stats I looked up. If we got rid of all air travel and volted up, which people think is enough, we have barely brushed upon the problem. It will take a war effort to mitigate the situation, and until Miami is washed way and mass migration occurs there are still scads out there who believe everything is a hoax or plot.

        And they’re sending rockets to Mars and back to the moon while vaccines need to be made and people line up at food banks.

        In the early oughts my wife and I moved rural, cut back, grew much of our own food, and have done our best. We are still carbon hogs by just being alive, sorry to say. Everything we use, own, or buy has either been made, resourced, or transported by FF. I don’t see that changing much for any of us. Snowing like a bugger right now and I’m irritated because the plow has not been by in the last 3 days to clear the local access road and I need to haul some tools and materials over to my rental where I am installing some new laundry gear. Some things never change for all of us. Irritation because our road has yet to be plowed, (kicks ass and slaps forehead).

        Take care.

        1. What, you’re not buying into the EV religion bringing utopia to the blue dot?

          Anyway, up here the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion is underway with thousands of workers laying pipe and all driving F-350 equivalent pickups. Yup, a spanking new pipeline system with the nominal capacity being upgraded from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, my neighbor, a major cattle rancher, keeps expanding – because he can’t meet the ever expanding market for beef.

          1. Folks, the reason EVs are important hardly relates to transportation. It’s the investment in battery technology that results from this crucial industry taking off so that we can make intermittent sources of renewable power work as we scale them up to 100% mid century. When you buy an EV, you also support investment in battery technology. Batteries allow us to not burn things to make our lives comfortable.

            1. Have we really got beyond the lithium ion battery first commercialized in the early 1990’s? (beyond 10% market share)

              Many improvements and gains with old sources–
              Anything new?

            2. True enough, but I would feel much better if the new tech was not proprietary and was open sourced so all could benefit. I live where energy storage is behind dams and our entire source of electricity is renewable and in far excess of our needs. That is a good thing, eh? Yet when our site C dam was announced the protests were non ending and are still going on.

              I can see any/all EVs requiring all maint work to be done at dealerships, and all aspects of repair controlled and limited by software.

              About 10 years ago a local consortium was going to construct a large windmill array below Quadra Island BC. When the rendering was published in the local paper, that was the end of that. The point of this comment is that people, at least many people, are just not prepared to do much of anything towards mitigation if it affects them, or even their view. And technological change by private companies is for making money.

              It’s not like this very often: “Demonstrating his altruistic commitment to advance medicine, Banting sold the patent rights for insulin to The University of Toronto for $1, claiming that the discovery belonged to the world, not to him. This allowed insulin to be mass-produced, making it widely available to the public for the treatment of Diabetes.”

              regards

            3. reply to High Trekker,

              My son mentioned the other day that a new project/concept is underway to retrieve lithium from the waste water in the Alberta Oil Sands. Apparently it is feasible, and the hope is just to break even with the production and development costs when it is all said and done.

      1. Survivalist, I watched the entire 1:14. I found it even more interesting than his 20 minute video. This video should be seen by every 5th grader and then repeated each year thereafter. Thanks for the link.

        1. Thank you all for these hearteningly depressing videos about the truth. We plan to watch The Crash from our little farm, hoping we can get away only slightly scathed. No one is unscathed.

    2. Don’t let these people brainwash you about sustainably. That’s the code word for communism.

      1. sus·tain·a·bil·i·ty
        noun
        -the ability to be maintained at a certain rate or level.
        “the sustainability of economic growth”
        -avoidance of the depletion of natural resources in order to maintain an ecological balance.
        “the pursuit of global environmental sustainability”

        For QAnon Believers Facing Reality, What Happens Now?
        “Has the inauguration driven adherents’ cognitive dissonance to a breaking point?”
        https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/psych-unseen/202101/qanon-believers-facing-reality-what-happens-now

        1. @Survivalist,

          Without conferring or knowing his mind I believe Zook to be referring to the non specific nature of the adjective. Many on this forum believe owning a Tesla is the pinnacle of sustainability. When pressed on the fossil fuels used in the procurement and manufacture of the electric vehicle, silence ensues.

          I don’t know why you saw fit to contort what was written by Zook and assign it a literal meaning. Zook explicitly said sustainability was code for communism. By that I believe he meant sustainability is not a goal most renewable advocates want as it would entail making sacrifices. Very few acknowledge the compromises to their standard of living and even fewer are willing to practice what they preach.

          The renewable crowd want to engage in the fantasy of sustainability and when reality comes calling they want someone else to pay the price. Not unlike any argument for communism.

      2. Zooks.

        Ha! Ha! sustainability and communism.

        I don’t think those words mean what you think they mean.

        Ha! Ha!

        1. It’s funny because sustainability is something a conservative should love. The rabid Republican reaction to it (as illustrated here) shows how wacky the party has become, and what a lie their claim to be “conservative” is.

    3. Yes- very good presentation/presenter Iron Mike
      He is spot on.
      The last slide “what should we do now” is a recipe for massive change in the economy and energy systems if you think about the elements he touches on.

      1. Hickory, I think the last slide is absolutely brilliant. However, the devil is in the details and, in this case, just how one interprets each bullet point. For starters, I suspect that only a tiny number of people (like folks on this forum) even understand what Rees is implying in each point. And then there’s the very real possibility that a public explanation of any given point would label you as a pariah (or worse).

        For example, his last point “Implement a global population strategy…..” could be recast to the World Population Balance goal of 4B by the end of this century primarily by means of a global One Child Family policy. Mathematically possible and very humane. Surely to be welcomed by world religions, political parties and industrialists.

        Or, “Develop sustainable lifestyles” Today, western style countries are so obsessed with their “car culture” that the current big idea for a Green Deal is to build more cars – just power them with electricity. This car culture is not only an ecological disaster but also a sociological one that isolates people in their tin boxes and thwarts traditional human interaction. There clearly are better ways to move humans about the surface of the planet: HPV, NEV, buses, light rail, etc that prioritizes heavy machinery and energy for actual commercial necessities. So, there should be no problem incentivizing grocery shopping by bicycle, velomobile, and golf cart, or taking a bus to visit grandma, or a train to a campsite in the mountains.

          1. PHF- media bias report on mercatornet-
            “These media sources are moderately to strongly biased toward conservative causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may utilize strong loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes), publish misleading reports and omit reporting of information that may damage conservative causes. Some sources in this category may be untrustworthy”

            Just saying- consider the source.

            1. Fine by me, lol. I haven’t paid attention to mainstream media since they really cranked up the liberal bias during the O’bama years.

            3. Hi Hickory,
              I’m interested in checking bias on a couple of sites (against my biased opinion lol). Where do you get your media bias reports? I wonder if peakoilbarrel has a bias report 🙂

          2. PHF-
            regarding the peakoil barrel andbias, this is not a news site. It is a place for opinions,information sharing, and occasionally a little fact/reality checking (needs more of that, in my opinion since this country is drowning in false narratives/anti-science/conspiracy thinking etc)

            But to answer you bigger question, if you are indeed interested in a way to compare media sources for 1-political bias, and 2- factual basis, there is an excellent source of information on this.
            They are now on the 7th version update. Check it out-
            https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

            Most people eagerly accept brainwashing without even a second thought.

        2. BicycleDave,
          Thats how I saw it too- “the devil is in the details and, in this case, just how one interprets each bullet point.”
          I think that Rees does a great job describing the magnitude and scope of the problem in 20 minutes, but also that his mental energy would much better spent on details left unsaid from that last slide. I suppose perhaps he does, but I’ve not looked into his ‘work’.

          btw- Thanks for you recent comments- always refreshing to hear from someone who alert and thoughtful.

          1. Thanks Hickory, feeling is mutual. I enjoy the discussion here but I’m hard pressed for time to engage more. Demands of my own website being one issue. If you click on BicycleDave at the top of my comment, you’ll get to my bicycle website – like POB, no advertising, just a volunteer community effort to encourage cycling. Note: it’s on a low cost shared server somewhere in CA, so might be a little slow coming up the first time on your device.

            As you can guess, I’m not a fan of our car culture – my website promotes cycling as an alternative to automobile oriented recreational activities in our county. At this point, I don’t deal with utility types of cycling (shopping, commuting, etc) as that’s too hard of a sell where I live. My hope is that introducing people to cycling-for-fun just might inspire other uses. However, Ozaukee County (just north of Milwaukee, WI) is a mix of affluent and rural folks – the vast majority of whom voted for Trump and Ron Johnson. Ozaukee has the highest per capita income in WI and 25th in the country. The car culture is in full bloom here! BMWs and F350s are more popular than bikes. However, the tourism folks do promote my site as a selling point for visiting our area. Strange bed-fellows!

    4. Actually, this sounded pretty much like Arithmetic, Population and Energy – a talk by Al Bartlett. I see it as exactly the same message. It is impossible for mankind to keep doubling it’s population, use of resources and dumping of waste into the biosphere on this finite space we call Planet Earth. The late Al Bartlett focused on energy, specifically fossil fuel energy, as the foundation for all the economic growth and concurrent population growth.

      I have a major problem with the slide Rees shows at 17 min. 19 sec in, where he shows the EIA/IEA projection for future energy growth. Despite a radical change in the IEA’s projections for solar PV, as far as I can tell, they are not forecasting any declines in fossil fuel use. My question is, If their projections for the growth in renewable energy use are wrong, won’t their projections for fossil fuel use also be wrong? If renewables continue to grow at faster than expected rate, surely they will end up displacing FF use. Indications are that this is already happening in the UK and the US with coal being the fuel being displaced. My feeling is that as PV technology and storage costs continue to decline, NG will be next.

      The population issue is still one hell of a conundrum. Maybe a future pandemic will take care of that! The current response to this pandemic does not bode well for the future.

  3. Seems like time for a post by Blue Blob Bob ?

    WINTRY ‘POLAR PLUNGE’ WALLOPS MUCH OF US

    “An “unprecedented” winter storm system will sweep the United States this week, the National Weather Service warned Monday, with Arctic air driving a “polar plunge” that is expected to break record-low temperatures.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-02-wintry-polar-plunge-wallops.html

    1. Damn, if only we had stuck with Global Climate Disruption instead of Climate Change we would always win when one of these happened….

    2. We have been freezing our keesters off for over a week, here in Michigan. It’s been bone chilling cold for day’s at a time. If the scientists still say there was global warming, during this month, I will be mighty suspicious, and will doubt it. If it is this cold here, I can’t even imagine how cold the artic is right now. But what do I know?

      Regards,
      Ralph
      Cass Tech ’64

      1. I think there are two considerations.
        1. Weather isn’t climate. Your cold temperatures now are transitory, just like the warm temperatures you may have next week. The long term average is what defines climate change.
        2. Global isn’t local. I’m 1000 miles east of you, the temperature is 34, and the winter has been far warmer than normal. Only two snowfalls so far this winter, and the ground outside has no snow cover in the middle of February.

        But when the icicles are dripping from your nose hairs it’s hard to look at the big picture!!

      2. I can’t even imagine how cold the artic is right now.

        Actually IIRC, that’s the problem! The Arctic has been unusually warm for some time resulting in changes in the jet stream, bringing colder air further south or something like that. It is counterintuitive that a warmer Arctic is causing colder temperatures away from the pole but, I believe that is what the data shows.

        1. I think it’s very intuitive – just think the cold fled to the south. Since there is no vacuum, warmer air has to replace the fleeing cold air.

          We hat a short influx of this cold air in Germany last week, too. More snow than in the last 15 years, and very cold, too. Now it’s over, from one day to the next +15 degree Celsius.

          Eletricity and gas was holding, thanks to big caverns for storage here. In a few years something like this will get much more interesting – when they switch off nuclear as planned and start shutting down coal. WITHOUT having long term storage for solar and wind, and without having plans to keep the coal plants for emergency use as “cold reserve”.

          I think an arctic breach like this in 5 years will lead to the same problems here as now in Texas. Wind energy kept running here – but there wasn’t much wind, only much cold. So not much wind energy (and no solar) even with the turbines working.

      3. I just ate a bit too much breakfast and am stuffed. This proves that global hunger is a myth.

      4. Usually on these outbreaks the arctic warms up as the cold air sags. The way I understand it is that the warming climate degrades the jet stream which allows these cold air waves to develop and sink south.

        Eureka NU -29C right now.
        Whitehorse YT -16 Mayo YT-16
        These places are usually waaayy colder this time of year.

        Minneapolis -13

      5. I’m going to assume they didn’t have a course in statistics at ol’ Cass Tech.

        I’m in Toronto, so about 230 miles from you. We have had a record warm December and January, and are undergoing the same cold snap you are.

        So…2 months of unusually warm weather, followed by two weeks (so far) of seasonally typical weather. On a whole, warmer than average where I am.

        The other thing to remember is that while we do have global warming (accent on “global”), it’s better to think of it as climate change or climate instability.

        Because there is no denying that we have that in spades.

  5. Islandboy, as an apparent follower of the Australian energy scene you might find the following of interest.

    AUSTRALIA BECOMES WORLD’S LARGEST GAS EXPORTER

    “The growing emissions from the gas industry — which releases immense quantities of climate pollution along the full supply chain — have more than offset any reduction of emissions elsewhere. In recent years, AUSTRALIA HAS SEEN A REMARKABLE ROLLOUT OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION, BUT THE REDUCED EMISSIONS IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE INCREASES FROM GAS…

    Indeed, the emissions resulting from unconventional gas extraction (coal seam gas or shale gas) in Australia could actually be worse than reported. This is because Australia’s reporting relies heavily on estimates based on out-of-date United States studies, rather than a systematic measurement of actual emissions from Australia’s coal seam gas industry. Currently, the emissions from unconventional gas in Australia are largely unknown due to a lack of measurement and data…

    Limiting global temperature rise requires that the use of all fossil fuels, including gas, is rapidly phased out. For a reasonable chance of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C, more than 70% of Australia’s existing conventional reserves of gas must stay in the ground. Development of new unconventional gas is entirely out of step with action on climate change.”

    NB Caps are mine

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/australia-worlds-largest-gas-exporter/

  6. Thought provoking piece by Thomas Oatley and Mark Blyth at Foreign Policy magazine.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/12/carbon-coalition-median-voter-us-politics/

    They argue that the fundamental political divide in the US can be attributed to the divided economy which they identify as the carbon economy, and the post carbon economy.

    Pardon the pun, but here’s the money quote:

    “There is only one way to fix this mess. The post-carbon coalition has to bribe what’s left of it to make the carbon transition. Non-coastal, largely Republican states must be the epicenter of the green transition and be the recipients of most of the investment. After all, they have the most assets to turn around and the most to lose if they are not compensated. If all they are offered is “you decarbonize/we keep the money,” then all they will give back is more Trumpism.”

    1. Exactly. If you’re going to do high speed rail, go from San Antone to Chicago, and have everyone looking at wind turbines and solar panels the whole way.

    2. The money quote is bang on. Although, it isn’t exactly against the law to move where the work is. I don’t know about many of you folks, but I’ve always had to go where the work was; usually where the production was most efficient or suitable.

      A new energy economy will require an educated and trained workforce. I live in logging country, and today’s logger runs machines worth millions of dollars. Gone are the days of my friend known as ‘one shift George’, always moving on from one camp to another. The bread basket will still grow grains and feed stocks, but coal country will most likely just whither away like the old mill towns.

      Shouldn’t the Govt seat really be located smack dab in the centre of the country? (And I don’t mean Telluride or Vail)
      “The geographic center of the United States taking Alaska and Hawaii into the equation is located near a town called Belle Fourche, South Dakota. … This geographic center is located about 20 miles north of Belle Fourche at latitude 44 58 02.07622 (N) and longitude 103 46 17.60283 (W).Apr. 25, 2015”

      The fix could be in a better and more equal public education system. Of course some might call that ‘socialism’.

  8. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-technology-could-transform-renewable-energy-bp-and-chevron-just-invested-11613458808

    My first thought seeing this is that once fracked wells are played out, some of them, maybe a lot of them, are already deep enough to convert them to this technology.
    The oil collection branching pipes are perforated to let the oil into them, and don’t form loops, but with the well bore already in place, and the necessary associated infrastructure already in place, it could potentially work.

    The wells aren’t all that far apart, and running hot water or steam lines to a central location in the oil field to run power plant turbines ought to be doable.

      1. “I’ve wondered for a long time why it must be so hard to use the heat (or cold) from below.”

        The short answer is that there are only a very few places where it’s hot enough for geothermal production to work efficiently at shallow depths.

        But if you can get a good bit of pipe, laid out in loops, deep enough underground, it’s hot enough EVERYWHERE.

        The trick is to put the heat exchanger tubing or pipe down to oil well depths… at least two or three thousand feet, preferably deeper.

        The oil fracking technology looks very promising in this respect. There’s no question the people doing fracking can put the pipes down there. So it’s pretty much a question if it can be done cheap enough to make it practical and profitable.

        It’s a rule of thumb that for every kilometer you go down, the temperature goes up about twenty five degrees K , or very roughly forty F. So you’ve heat enough to make steam at three or four kilometers, and really energetic steam at twice that.

        “The median depth for all fracturing wells was around 8,200 feet.Jul 31, 2015” from a Scientific American article.

        1. It seems that the ability to create a closed loop piping system successfully, at depth, will be key to making this work.

  9. More people, more manufacturing! Why do we (humans) always seem to focus on the easy stuff?

    WHY MANUFACTURING IS THE BIGGEST HURDLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIGHT

    “Manufacturing – especially of the cheap construction staples steel and cement – accounts for about a third of global greenhouse gas emissions. That makes manufacturing more polluting than the power or transportation sectors, which receive far more attention in policies and investments. And the manufacturing sector is set to grow, as the global population climbs and countries further develop.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/2/16/why-manufacturing-is-the-biggest-hurdle-in-climate-change-fight

    1. Meanwhile,

      HOW CHINA USED MORE CEMENT IN 3 YEARS THAN THE U.S. DID IN THE ENTIRE 20TH CENTURY

      “So how did China use so much cement? First, the country is urbanizing at a historic rate, much faster than the U.S. did in the 20th Century. More than 20 million Chinese relocate to cities each year, which is more people than live in downtown New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago combined. This massive change has taken place in less than 50 years. In 1978, less than a fifth of China’s population lived in cities. By 2020, that proportion will be 60 percent.”

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-china-used-more-cement-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-did-in-the-entire-20th-century/

  10. Speaking of distractions. For Romans it was bread and circuses, for many these days it seems to be soap operas (Reality Shows) and football, for me its (mainly) astronomy and astrophysics.

    PERSEVERANCE ROVER LANDS ON MARS THIS WEEK

    After a seven-month journey, NASA’s Perseverance rover prepares to touch down on Mars on Thursday after first negotiating a risky landing procedure that will mark the start of its multi-year search for signs of ancient microbial life. Cross your fingers kids. Even more exciting, for me anyway, subject to weather and other conditions, we’ll have launch the James Webb telescope on October 31.

  11. So what’s the plan from the techno cornucopian Fanbois? Can anyone articulate a policy that is both sufficient and has a reasonable chance of being implemented? Now that the bad man is out of the white house it should be full steam ahead right, no famine to worry about?
    Please do keep me up to date on how we are all taking action now and the future crisis is being averted.

  12. Climate Change Is Here—and It Looks Like Starvation

    https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/climate-change-media-humanitarian-crises/

    The Scariest Thing About Climate Change: What Happens To Our Food Supply

    https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2019/06/05/climate-change-food-frederick-hewett

    I find it odd that people come to this fine blog and think nothing of finding here a heaping of praise upon on Elon Musk for leading the enlightened into moral victory by being so wealthy, yet would speak up to argue that a few years worth of preps is both a foolish idea and morally flawed. I guess if you’re not into backup plans then the only plan you got, which, by the way, requires everyone to be onboard with and taking immediate action, must seem like the only way out. I suspect that the famine induced population bottleneck will not select favorably for the characteristics of the techno cornucopian Fanbois and their myopic ‘eggs in one basket’ approach to risk management. I hope people aren’t taking that sort of advice seriously.

    1. I post my own personal opinion, based on my own personal professional training, and reading a hell of a lot of hard science here occasionally.

      For what it’s worth, I believe the most likely overall scenario that will play out over the next century or so is that a substantial portion of humanity will die hard, some pretty fast from war, communicable diseases, but most slower due to stress from starvation, thirst, etc.
      The die off will probably be piecemeal and regional.

      Some people in some countries are likely to pull thru more or less whole, assuming the climate doesn’t go totally haywire and we avoid WWIII.

      By whole I mean that most people will survive, that there will still be stores with food in them, a functional electricity and water grid, cops, hospitals etc. I don’t mean everybody can have a new personal automobile or that we will be having veggies and fish flown from thousands of miles away for lunch.

      Let’s not forget that LEVIATHAN, the nation state, is capable of looking after itself once it’s fully aroused and aware that it’s own existence is threatened.

      There are no guarantees, and as Yogi so famously said, predictn’s hard, ‘specially the future, lol.
      But there’s some reason to believe that with a little luck, countries such as the USA and Canada, as well as maybe a dozen or more other countries that are both rich enough, in terms of natural resources, and big enough, in terms of size and population, to defend themselves from desperate neighbors.

      We can EASILY afford the transition to mostly renewable electricity and electrified transportation, if we once decide it’s NECESSARY, collectively speaking.

      We can easily afford to double up on energy efficiency.

      We can afford to do all these things at no more cost than giving up some wasteful and even dangerous habits, such as over eating highly processed food, smoking, driving double oversized trucks to fetch beer, watching sports on tv instead of actually participating.

      The most IMPORTANT single question is whether we will come to the collective realization that we HAVE NO CHOICE in this matter in times to do enough that at least some of us will survive as civilized societies.

      Hence I recommend that we pray to the rock, mountain, snake, bear, sky daddy, sky mommy or prophet we like best that he she or it, as the case may be, will send us a steady stream of PEARL HARBOR WAKE UP BRICKS, in small sharp pieces upside our collective head.

      Small enough and frequent enough that they won’t incapacitate us, but too painful and too many to ignore them.

      1. O.F.M. — You’re funny. What jurisdictions in America do you think have adequate plans to deal with a nuclear detonation, much less a pandemic or even extreme weather events? And, do you ever wonder why the rich, and super-rich, are building their “bolt holes” in places like New Zealand? Sometimes I think many Americans think their odds of survival correspond to the number of guns they own without considering how they will manage to eat.

        1. Hi Doug,

          I don’t say so every time I make a comment such as this one, but I do often add a caveat such as our being lucky.

          “Some people in some countries are likely to pull thru more or less whole, assuming the climate doesn’t go totally haywire and we avoid WWIII.”

          I don’t think it’s very likely anybody will attack us with nukes, at least not anybody with enough of them to do us in. A North Korea might hit us with half a dozen, but even that’s unlikely. North Korea would cease to exist within an hour of firing off a couple of nukes at anybody allied with the USA, or China, or Russia, and that includes just about everybody.

          Pandemics are old news, to people in my field. There’s really not much difference between human public health science and practice and what we farmers practice. When I went to nursing school, after “retiring” the second or third time, there wasn’t anything in the textbooks of any consequence about the management of epidemic diseases and parasites that wasn’t in my cow college textbooks lol. The very worst pandemics haven’t killed much more than half the population even back in the days before we understood germ theory.

          A good friend who doesn’t want his name used publicly, but is well qualified in this field, estimates that if we were to just let Covid 19 run wild and free, it wouldn’t likely kill more than ten percent of us, and his median guesstimate for the USA is ten million dead without any concerted effort to reduce the toll.

          “Some people in some countries are likely to pull thru more or less whole, assuming the climate doesn’t go totally haywire and we avoid WWIII.” Ninety percent of us falls within the range of some people in some countries, lol.

          But you’re dead on about a lot of my less well informed fellow citizens thinking guns will save them.

          Guns will save some people sometimes, if things really go all the way to hell, because there will be a LOT of people roaming around ready to kill for food or anything valuable in a survival situation.

          I don’t expect things to get that bad, at least not in my part of the country, because the pickings are slim, and just about everybody IS armed. So if there’s an exodus of desperate people from big cities, it’s unlikely very many of them will come into my neck of the woods. If they do, the local hillbillies will mostly be waiting, hoping for an opportunity to rob THEM.

          The tentative plan is for three or four other old guys to come fort up with me here on the farm, and look after each other while we raise some beans and corn. I’m extraordinarily fortunate in this respect, as a matter of pure luck, in that I know a hell of a lot about getting along with what’s on hand, and I have a lot of stuff on hand, enough to survive quite a while, barring medical problems.

          But if a few organized and properly trained and led SOLDIERS were to ever come thru looting, I wouldn’t last a day. I know that, and so does everybody else that knows doo doo from apple butter about such things.

          Hopefully our own Leviathan, the USA federal government, will survive in an economic and or ecological collapse scenario……… but as I always say…… there are no guarantees, only probabilities.

          The facts of the matter are that we simply do not KNOW how bad things will be. A pandemic could wipe out most of the people in the worst trouble spots, which would take the pressure off of food supplies in such places.

          If the shit hits the fan hard and fast, I personally believe that most people will die in place in the worst affected places. I don’t have any problems foreseeing dead people piled up in windrows at national borders manned by people perfectly willing to shoot first in order to protect their own families and country.

          The world is a BIG place. There’s no real reason to believe that collapse due to overshoot will be happen at the same time all over the planet.

          Of course there’s no guarantee the built in coming crisis WON’T be sudden and world wide.

          Maybe we’ll all die, or almost all of us, even in a country such as the USA or Canada….. or Norway or Sweden.

  14. Climate Crisis Will Shift Tropical Rain Belt and Create Food Insecurity for Billions, Study Finds
    “ A study published Monday found billions more could face food insecurity as Earth’s tropical rain belt shifts in response to climate change”
    https://www.ecowatch.com/tropical-rain-belt-food-insecurity-2650024434.html

    As any anthropologist will tell you; people steal before they starve. I do realize that there is now a Democrat in the WH, and many of the unworldly types are now prone believing that, once again, all is right with the world, but it seems a bit naive to bet ones future on the hope that humanity collectively gets is shit together and takes sufficient action now.

    1. Big whoop. Northern latitudes will open up to development as the tropics fade away. Russia and Canada are both looking to majorly increase their populations, thus their economies, and increased farming opportunities are a means to that end. Greenland wants full independence and is banking on getting there with the increased mining and development opportunities as otherwise useless ice moves on out.

      1. You know anybody farming the Canadian Shield? Alberta and Saskatchewan will have an uptick in food production, but it will likely be insufficient to offset losses as well as supply increasing demand.

      2. I don’t know how the Russia of Putin is hoping to increase its population, when we see the way the people are treated by justice and police. And for corporations, that’s the same. That’s explain why Russia is a country of emigration, especially those who are young and educated.

    2. Idealistic people tend to give up their idealism once it’s necessary to start tightening up their own belts.
      I can’t see the more prosperous countries such as the USA ever being willing to switch from eating meat, dairy, poultry, fruits and veggies, etc, to eating beans, bread, cabbage and onions, to save people starving in a far away third world country.

      People sure as hell will rob and steal to the extent they can in such situations, but such people in sub Sahara Africa aren’t going to get on boats by the millions, or walk to Europe by the millions. They’ll mostly die, if and when famines and pandemics hit, pretty much where they live now. Maybe a couple of percent of them will manage to get out and to Europe or the Americas, max.

      Back when I was a young guy, we had huge surpluses of grain in storage all over the place. Such surpluses don’t exist anymore.

      Take it from a farmer, born and bred, and university trained.

      When the crops fail, and the pastures dry up, cows die only where the drought hits. I’ve never had a cow die from starvation, nor has any farmer to my personal knowledge near where I live, with one exception. He went to jail for thirty days for failure to feed his cows, and the state confiscated the rest of them.

      We sell when we have to, if we can’t afford to buy feed, which is sometimes nonexistent. Many farmers to sell their cattle at a substantial loss at one time or another. But there are always plenty more cows to be had, when the rains return.

      There simply isn’t any surplus of food available sufficient to feed a hundred million people , or four or five hundred million, unless somebody gives up meat and potatoes for bread and beans, on the grand scale.

      I would like to think that I’m wrong, but I don’t see it happening.

      Biden , Pelosi and The Squad are pure hearted people, at least compared to people such as our current crop of Republicans such as cruz, trump, Moscow Mitch, etc.

      But they’re not going to go out on a charity limb far enough to put the Republicans back in power. They’re not going to even seriously think about putting us on bread and beans to save people who live far away from starvation.

  18. Anyone surprised?

    STUDIES REVEAL GLOBAL ICE MELT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE

    “Two new studies suggest that recent estimates of global ice melt are conservative. In other words, ice is melting much more rapidly than experts thought. As a result, sea levels are rising faster as well.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-02-reveal-global-ice.html

  19. Morning laugh:

    Apparently Ted Cruz is on his way back from Cancun this morning after fleeing the Texas weather Wed night.

    I find it unimaginable that some politician can be so out of touch to believe it might be acceptable to head south while millions of voters are dealing with all that we know about frozen pipes, houses flooding out with thawed split pipes, no heat, no water, and no freaking food on the store shelves. Roads are an icy snowy mess.

    And heading south during a pandemic, for God’s sake. And Abbott is blaming windmills and the Green New Deal.

    Funny how Alberta and BC produce oil and natural gas……and wind power!!!!!, during winter and recent arctic outbreaks. And we’re those commie regulated producer places. hmmm. I pay $.09 KWh.

    Morning tidbit:

    I live in earthquake country, and have all my life. My mom always made sure we had water and food stored away in a hardened cupboard that was at ground level. We also have supplies galore, and a Westfalia if we have to leave our house (full of supplies and camping gear…..plus earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible for replacement costs if the ‘big one’ hits (and is 100 years overdue per sedimentary records). And Survivalist would be pleased to know I have every shop tool and shop stores to build and fix anything; 50# boxes of galv nails, zillions of screws and fasteners, generator, welders, tanks….whatever we need. And if I don’t have something my neighours do.

    And yesterday we had an earthquake. A wee one, but it was amazing as the epicenter was just 1 km away from my house, and only 17 km deep. There was no shaking at all. It just went Boom and everything jumped. The pictures moved and we could feel the shock go up our legs. The sound was like an explosion, a road building blast. I thought it might have been a very large propane tank exploding somewhere close, and waited for the sirens. But there was no rumbling like an explosion makes, more like a giant hand clap. We have had earthquakes before, one about 10 years ago was so pronounced I was going to get out of the house until I looked outside at the trees swaying back and forth. They were really flailing around so we stood in a doorway and hung on. That experience only lasted seconds….maybe 10-15? I cannot imagine the shaking going on for minutes. I just can’t imagine it.

    1. You’re smart to be prepared. It’s now been 320 years since the Cascadia megathrust earthquake rocked our coast, sending a tsunami wave across the Pacific Ocean to Japan where it was recorded on Jan. 26, 1700 as one of the most catastrophic natural events. Today we would see major damage to bridges, roads, telecommunications systems etc. The biggest impact is going to be the buildings, especially those built before the advent of seismic protection measures.

      1. You bet. I wouldn’t want to be in Richmond it being built on clay and at or below sea level. I thought it was amazing that the records were so meticulous in Japan as to date and time when the Tsunami hit during that event. Then, it is just a simple time/distance equation. And I’m sure you have seen the specials on the tube where geologists have dug into the estuaries for layer samples and estimated the inundation and damage. The modeling of what will happen in Seaside Or put a kibash on our visits down the Oregon coast. I wouldn’t be able to sleep nights camped at sea level.

        Correction for up above. The earthquake was only 3.9 km deep. And….epicenter was less than a km from my kitchen table. No wonder we felt it. 🙂

        1. It isn’t just that Richmond is built on clay, a lot of it is built on thixotropic clay, clay with a time-dependent shear thinning property. If you don’t already know, thixotropic clays are actually gels that are thick or viscous under static conditions but that will flow (become thinner, less viscous) when shaken, agitated, shear-stressed, or otherwise stressed (we call this time dependent viscosity). I’d hate to be living in one of those 30 story apartment complexes in Richmond during a major quake.

      2. DougL, Paulo,

        My friend, colleague, and neighbor Bryan Atwater at the USGS was the one who checked in NE Japan for a record of a tsunami there. The time span to check was given by radiocarbon dating of coastal trees that had been sunk by the quake and killed by saltwater.

        The great slump and flow to the NE of Oslo a few weeks ago was the result of liquefaction of thixotropic clays that Doug mentions.

        Hmmm…Port sounding good right about now.

        1. Small world…fascinating world. Some earthquake preps around here have already been completed, (Sayward BC). Two new bridges constructed to acceptable earthquake standards over the Salmon River. Unfortunately, I have to also use a Bailey Bridge to get home (between the two new ones), but I’m hoping it’s inherent flexibility will keep it functional. Thinking about it, I may be able to drive around another way on a logging road and cross one of the hardened bridges. In Campbell River all the schools have been updated, as well as the John Hart Dam and generating station. New penstocks were made by drilling through bedrock. Plus, a new hospital was built that is up to earthquake code.

          You look around, walk on the bedrock, and everything seems solid and permanent. But when you fly up the coast there are huge fractures and slides where mountainsides slabbed off….huge rock slides like the recent one up the Southgate River, Butte Inlet. Years ago I flew up Knights Inlet to a camp called Glacier Bay. The entire side of the mountain slid off into the sea during the night. Millions of cubic meters.

          I’m an old carpenter. I always put lots and lots of rebar in my concrete. I don’t trust the anchor bolts, though. In a big shaker many houses will come right off their foundations. I built a rental cottage a few years ago and put it on 2’X2′ pads, the posts all crisscrossed with 2X4 sway bracing. Oh well, I just hope it doesn’t happen. Although, I do catch myself thinking that it has been such a shitty year, it wouldn’t surprise me that….. Hope not.

          I’m having a Crown Royal as soon as I hit send. Out of wine. Cheers.

    2. Regarding- “I find it unimaginable that some politician can be so out of touch to believe it might be acceptable to head south while millions of voters are dealing with all that we know about frozen pipes, houses flooding out with thawed split pipes, no heat, no water, and no freaking food on the store shelves. ”
      Well, don’t forget that his voting base (the republicans of Texas) are the same people who didn’t realize that their president lied to them over 30,600 times, publicly, while in office. And they didn’t mind. So, don’t be surprised when they don’t seem to register what seems obvious to me and you.

      The discovery of the dates for the 1700 Cascadia earthquake is a indeed great story. The infrastructure of Cascadia is very vulnerable- pipelines, water and sewer systems, rail, port, airports, bridges, etc. Bend, Spokane, Boise and Kamloops are going to very popular destinations for those who can make it inland.

      1. Cruz is a republican from Texas–
        I don’t see why the uproar from his actions.
        By definition, he has no moral center or ethics.

    1. Penny wise and just stupid ass cheap

      Failed Republican government leadership and greed over regulations

      The great state of self inflicted disaster

      Cruz flies over Trump wall to vacation in Mexico

      Green Party nowhere to be found

      1. Indeed, do you happen to know, HB, as such a well informed man with much wisdom to share, why the Green Party is nowhere to be found in Texas? Do you know any of the reasons? Furthermore, I believe that blaming The Green Party is a fossil fuel talking point. Honestly, do you just come here to embarrass yourself, or what?

        Gov. Greg Abbott and other Republicans blamed green energy for Texas’ power woes. But the state runs on fossil fuels.
        https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/17/abbott-republicans-green-energy/

        Democrats wage legal offensive to kick Green Party candidates off ballot in high-profile Texas races

        https://www.salon.com/2020/08/20/democrats-wage-legal-offensive-to-kick-green-party-candidates-off-ballot-in-high-profile-texas-races_partner/

        Texas Democrats are successfully suing to kick Green Party candidates off the November ballot (aka voter suppression)
        https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/19/texas-democrats-green-party-november/

        Perhaps HB has a plan for us all that he’d like to share; perhaps he can articulate a policy; and then we shall really make some progress.

        1. I’m a registered Green Party member also-
          But, I am basically an anarchist, and living in a State with a Dem Governor, 2 Dem Senators, and 4 out of 5 reps Dem’s, it really is a moot point.
          Really, if you think voting changes anything (very doubtful on a meaningful level), you need to get rid of the Electoral College.

          “If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal.”
          –Emma Goldman

          (Our repug friends seem to be taking Emma’s advice)

    2. preppers in Texas thread…

      so my eldest brother, who is a moron, has been playing soldier with his moron friends in the deserts of texas for the last year preparing for the collapse of civilization if biden won (lol). they were burying food and ammo stashes out in the desert, running drills, crazy stuff…

      …their plan for cooking and heating during an extended power outage was natural gas, but like a lot of homes their gas service is out. the food in their freezer and fridge is already toast due to the power outrages, so they’re down to canned stuff, but there’s a catch.

      they can get into the pull top cans just fine, but the ones that require an opener? their only can opener is electric. so a good 3/4 of his canned food store is inaccessible to him unless he goes after it with a knife, which i sincerely hope he does.

      so captain survival was eating unheated ravioli out of a can yesterday because i guess he doesn’t know how to start a fire? they have a fire pit but it too is gas fired.

      he told my mom they’re probably going to break into the survival buckets soon. i’m sure that’s great food.

      https://twitter.com/torriangray/status/1361778280521605122

      1. I notice that American survivalists go in for gas guzzling vehicles as well. I wonder where they think they are going to get the gas from when they go wrong.

        To be fair, America greens that build Tiny Houses in the desert and brag about them being carbon neutral drive gas guzzlers too, and burn enough fuel to heat a large house for weeks just driving to the beer store.

        So it isn’t just crazy right wingers. Americans of all stripes are oil junkies, and have a hard time imagining life without modern amenities.

        1. As Dr Rees points out, ones ecological footprint is correlated with income, not how much one cares, or doesn’t care, about the environment. I see all kinda of Dimocrats driving gas guzzlers. I suppose HB failed to notice, for obvious reasons, or perhaps he’s vision impaired?

      2. Wharf , you just made my night (8Pm here in Europe ) . Prepare and then F*** up . An old saying “There is many a slip between the cup and the lip ” . I remember another one ” A small hole can sink a big ship ” . Best of luck to your brother .

      3. Survival-By-Smartphone

        Survival, to me, is not at all about how best to hoard The Handout System’s wares. It’s about doing so along the lines of how our wild or near-wild ancestors, or even semi-domesticated villagers, used to do it. For now it’s fortunately just a past-time and every year, I try to add a notch or two in my belt in this regard. Suffice to say, it’s highly recommended. Even if much of it will never be used, it’s fun and empowering and gets me out and about.

        Last year, I was on a hiking/biking trail and met someone who showed me how to use his smartphone/AI app to scan a wild plant that could then tell him what it was. ‘Wow, cool.’, I somewhat charitably exclaimed. I already had the knowledge of the plant in my head, but he appeared to prefer his smartphone.

      4. Hi Wharf Rat, it sounds not long until your eldest brothers body and soul are united no more. Preppers and Survivalists catching Darwin Awards is one of my fav laughs, no offense to your kin.
        In terms of my fav stories of survivalists winning Darwin’s, I’d have to say the ‘80s was quite rich!
        Survivalists and the Harrowing Norco Bank Robbery
        https://www.policemag.com/373843/survivalists-and-the-harrowing-norco-bank-robbery

        What a bunch of lunatics eh? I wonder if it’s something that folks should consider preparing for more of in the future or nah?

        1. He’s somebody else’s brother, not mine. He does have a chance to get a mechanical can open before it happens again.

  21. This Texan grid failure could have a silver lining.
    The spotlight on ERCOT (the Texas grid) may prompt interconnection with the other regional grids, and eventually pave the way for the great Texas solar and wind machine to achieve its eventual role as a major supplier of electricity to the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi and Ohio river regions.

    1. Well-
      “No one owes you [or] your family anything…I’m sick and tired of people looking for a damn handout!..The City and County, along with power providers or any other service owes you NOTHING!”

      Texas republican

        1. ALIM , simple answer . The brainwashed sheeple elected you . Now you are not a ^ public servant ^ , you are ^king ^ . Tragedy .

      2. Adult Baby Food

        “ No one owes you [or] your family anything…’ ~ Texas Republican ” ~ Hightrekker

        It’s essentially true, though, which is in part why I keep advocating for personal and real/local community empowerment and resilience. Duh.
        The Darwin Award can come to those with stars in their eyes for electric cars and assorted techno and other kinds of handouts.
        When/If the electricity and food (and stuff like those) disappear, even if temporarily, from ‘The Handout System’ (empty grocery store shelves, grid blackouts, etc.), you might thank your lucky stars for your personal empowerment and resilience that, practically by definition, transcends The Handout System’s busted daisy/delivery-chains.

        “Control the oil and you control entire nations; control the food and you control the people.” ~ Henry Kissinger

        Control your own food if near-total reliance on The Handout System doesn’t appeal to you.
        Don’t leave it to the Henry Kissingers of the world. LOL

  22. Breaking Study Sheds More Light on Whether an RNA Vaccine Can Permanently Alter DNA

    “This was thought near impossible. Based on this ground-breaking study, I would hope that the highly presumptuous claim that such a scenario is impossible will find its way to the trash bin labeled: ‘Things We Were Absolutely and Unequivocally Certain Couldn’t Happen Which Actually Happened’; although, I have a suspicious feeling that the importance of this study will be minimized in quick order with reports from experts who attempt to poke holes in their work. It’s important to add that this paper is a pre-print that is not peer-reviewed yet; but I went through all of the data, methods, and results, and I see very little wrong with the paper, and some gaps that need closing- but, at least from the standpoint of being able to answer the question: can RNA from the coronavirus use existing cellular pathways to integrate permanently into our DNA? From that perspective, their paper is rock-solid. Also, please take note that these are respected scientists from MIT and Harvard…

    Instead of going through all of their results in detail (you can do that if you like by reading their paper linked below), I will answer the big question on everyone’s mind – If the virus is able to accomplish this, then why should I care if the vaccine does the same thing?

    Well, first let’s just address the big elephant in the room first. First, you should care because, ‘THEY TOLD YOU THAT THIS WAS IMPOSSIBLE AND TO JUST SHUT UP AND TAKE THE VACCINE.’ These pathways that I hypothesized (and these researchers verified with their experiments) are not unknown to people who understand molecular biology at a deeper level. This is not hidden knowledge which is only available to the initiated. I can assure you that the people who are developing the vaccines are people who understand molecular biology at a very sophisticated level. So, why didn’t they discover this, or even ask this question, or even do some experiments to rule it out? Instead, they just used superficially simplistic biology 101 as a smoke screen to tell you that RNA doesn’t convert into DNA. This is utterly disingenuous, and this lack of candor is what motivated me to write my original article.”

    Sampled comment:

    “I came here from TWIV looking forward to getting a good laugh at the paper they just trashed, but I found it to be well thought out and valid. We should not bias ourselves because Anti vaxx and COVID-is-nothing-but-false-positive groups are trying to use this to their advantage.”

    PEOPLE! Don’t. Take. The. Covid. Vaccine.
    THAT MEANS NONE OF THE VARIATIONS OF THE INCREASING NUMBER OF COVID-19 VACCINES

    “Massive MSM Campaign of Vaccine Disinfo, Misinfo & False Info

    In light of this state of affairs, it can be declared that the Mainstream Media has been publishing numerous Covid news reports that were designed to mislead the public.

    Many of those reports give the distinct impression that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are FDA approves. THEY ARE NOT.

    Both of these highly experimental mRNA vaccines have only been authorized for emergency use, which means that every recipient is nothing but a human guinea pig.”

    A Tale Told by an Idiot: The Second Impeachment of Donald Trump

    “What we have just seen is another example of the compulsion of America’s liberal ruling elite to make a sick, discredited joke of what is left of their own collapsing and totally bankrupt political system.

    What was the Second Impeachment of Donald Trump? Shakespeare gave us the answer in his Scottish Play more than 400 years ago.

    ‘It was a walking shadow, a poor player

    That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

    And then is heard no more. It is a tale

    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

    Signifying nothing.’ “

  23. Did you hear the one about the prepper who walked into a collapse blog and got brigaded by the techno cornucopian Fanboi Biden Bros?

    Climate change is fueling recruitment into armed groups
    https://thehill.com/opinion/international/539160-climate-change-is-fueling-recruitment-into-armed-groups

    ….. but not to worry folks! The Dimocrats are gonna save you 🙂 if you don’t believe me then just ask around…. whatever you do, don’t have any preps or deviate from the plan you are given. Any planning of your own is not warranted. If the Dimocrat plan is insufficient then please be prepared to happily die. People who don’t live in America are prob ok to prep though, I dunno, depends where.

  24. A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society?

    In 1995 Wired’s executive editor Kevin Kelly made a $1,000 bet with author Kirkpatrick Sale.

    Sale believed society was on the verge of collapse. That wasn’t entirely bad, he argued. He hoped the few surviving humans would band together in small, tribal-style clusters. They wouldn’t be just off the grid. There would be no grid. Which was dandy, as far as Sale was concerned.
    […]
    Kelly then asked how, in a quarter century, one might determine whether Sale was right.

    Sale extemporaneously cited three factors: an economic disaster that would render the dollar worthless, causing a depression worse than the one in 1930; a rebellion of the poor against the monied; and a significant number of environmental catastrophes.

    The wager has now been settled, you can read the verdict rendered by the judge by following this link:
    https://www.wired.com/story/a-25-year-old-bet-comes-due-has-tech-destroyed-society/

    Collapse is a common theme here, with ongoing debate between ‘techno-cornucopians’ and ‘collapsitarians’, or whatever derisive label you want to throw at the Other, but the meaning of collapse is often ambiguous.

    If you were to engage in a wager similar to that made by Kelly and Sale, what three things would you wager, and what end date would you place on the bet?

    I’m going to limit my three to civilizational collapse, not environmental collapse, although they are inexorably interdependent. Feel free to do so however.

    Here’s mine:

    1. Collapse of state monetary systems:Barter, scripts, local notes, or crypto currencies become the majority form of transaction over the national currency in 3/5 of the top economies of US, China, EU, Japan, and India. State adoption of a crypto or electronic currency is excluded.

    2. Collapse of communication systems: Voice and data networks are non-operative more than 30% of the time in more than 50% of the 2021 service areas, in 3/5 of the top economies..

    3. Collapse of life expectancy: Average life expectancy drops by 15 years or more in 3/5 of the top economies due to non-pandemic causes.

    Dissolution of existing political relationships are excluded. If it occurs, the former aligned territories will be considered in aggregate.

    I believe that none of these three things will happen within the next 25 years, which is the extent of my life expectancy.

    What three things would you use to define collapse, and how likely do you think they are to happen?

    1. Hmm.. Don’t cryptocurrencies requires very sophisticated infrastructure? I would guess that crypto currencies wouldn’t work in a collapsed society…

      1. I agree. That would be my thinking too. Crypto certainly doesn’t seem like it will survive a mass coronal ejection/solar flare induced blackout type event. Although if collapse proceeds across time and space from most vulnerable place to least vulnerable place, then it will likely linger for a while.

      2. Yeah, I don’t understand how cryptocurrencies work in any society. Can you buy a pizza with bitcoin? What does a bitcoin look like? I think bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Bitcoin will collapse long before society collapses.

        1. https://www.lathropgpm.com/newsroom-alerts-Bitcoin-Lessons-from-Venezuela-Where-Hyperinflation-Reigns.html

          https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334908366_Financial_shielding_that_Bitcoin_grants_to_capitals_in_the_world

          Maybe the collapse of state monetary systems isn’t useful to include at all, as it could possibly occur for weird unforeseen political or social reasons – people stop believing in their government, but still believe in trade and technology.

          1. people stop believing in their government, but still believe in trade and technology.

            No, that is not possible. A stable government is necessary for trade and technology. Yes, bitcoin trading may be surging, among the wealthy, in Venezuela. Of course, this trading is done on exchanges outside of Venezuela. But it doesn’t do shit for the starving population. They don’t have a single bitcoin in their pocket, or in the cloud, as that is where bitcoins are stored. 🙂

        2. Survival Pizza

          I don’t care what you have; if you can’t get a pizza with it, it’s no good. ‘u^

          In pizza we trust.

    2. Good one Bob. I like the way you shook that out. I myself forecast a rather rough time ahead, secondary to the combined impacts of peak oil and climate change; to wit, famine, state failure and unregulated mass migration. It has already begun in the more vulnerable parts of the world, and it will slowly become the norm in more and more parts of the world.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index

      I’m not big on the term “failed state”. I would argue for distinguishing among capacity gaps, security gaps, and legitimacy gaps that states experience. Predicting what path a particular state will take as it contracts is quite an exercise. Each will be unique, like a snowflake 🙂

    3. Assuming a global collapse:

      1. Jared Diamond and others who’ve written about collapse usually cite a significant decline in human population, at a fairly rapid rate, that wasn’t rationally planned by the people involved – i.e. war, famine, disease. So, I’d say a decline to half the current population – about 4B – not due to a rational global plan like a one child family – sometime before 2099

      2. 4B people happily living with a decent sense of well-being ( Maslow’s hierarchy) would not be a collapse, so I would add that half the human population – 2B – is living in the lowest levels of poverty as defined by the UN.

      3. Collapse in previous civilizations usually meant running out of resources in a given area – food, water, fuel, metals, etc. In this case, there would be no other “area” to move to. So, I would add ecosphere degradation in terms of species extinction, fresh water, fertile soil, usable minerals, rain forests, aquifers, etc, that could no longer carry more than 3B humans at a comfortable and sustainable level of creature comfort.

      As for how likely:

      “It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91”

      It seems the real question is if one believes in increased growth and prosperity or thinks decline is inevitable – I would guess that a decline is most likely – even if preventable.

      1. Thanks for your definitions B.D.
        Your number 1. is what I was trying to cover with my number 3.

        Your number 2 introduces quality of life dimension which is important. Does it do the same thing to separate it from any population decline? Here’s an image of the poverty trend: https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/11/Extreme-Poverty-projection-by-the-World-Bank-to-2030-786×550.png, could the metric simply be prosperity regresses until half the population is in poverty, regardless of population size?

        One thing that’s missing from both our lists is technology regression. One possible metric of collapse could be that no transistors are manufactured anywhere on Earth.

        In regards to your number 3, climate impacts could also swamp the system. One could reasonable argue that Texas is currently in a state of collapse, but we expect it to be temporary, and know that resources outside of the affected area can be used to restore functionality, just as functionally was restored to California after last years fires, but these signals may become frequent enough, and large enough, that the system can’t recover: The frequency and intensity of storms, fires and flooding become too much to recover from and we become incapable of restoring our systems between bouts of destruction.

        1. Bob, I was thinking mostly about the final result of global collapse, i.e. population cut in half with half of that in extreme poverty and no hope of recovery due to a degraded environment. Regardless of the causes.

          Your point about the future potential inability to fully recover from things like the CA wildfires, is a good illustration of collapse.

          Your poverty chart is interesting – and again a reversal of this in the improved areas would be a clear warning sign. There is also the issue of just what was it that brought so many people out of the extreme poverty category? Energy-based production of mono-crops for an increase in calories isn’t a great recipe for quality of life or sustainability.

          However, your point about transistors is the most interesting. OOH, I guess it could just be considered another component of resource scarcity. OTOH, it brings to mind what kind of priorities we might have in an orderly, managed, rational wind-down of consumption and population. I’d suggest that preserving some form of the internet (Nick will be pleased) should be high on the list as information sharing has high utility value. This would necessitate some form of global commerce (rare earth stuff, etc) and retaining a degree of high-tech, precision manufacturing capability for servers, communications, and personal devices – is that possible?

          My bike friends have mused about what kind of bike or trike could be manufactured with just local, sustainable resources. Today’s $2K to $10K serious cycle is built from worldwide components – “Made in USA Trek” is really just “Assembled…..”. It’s an interesting exercise.

          The next interesting thought about transistors is not so much about the end state of collapse, but rather the warning signs of impending collapse. It seems to me that it would be a clear signal if we began to see serious shortages of transistor-like items without a simple increased demand being the cause.

          1. Dave wrote: ” just what was it that brought so many people out of the extreme poverty category?”

            That chart is for extreme poverty, defined as below $1.90 per day income. My guess is that a rural to urban migration is at play. If so, the migrations may not all be voluntary; rural peasant farmers or hunter-gatherers living meaningful independent lives being forced into wage slavery would show up in this chart as people exiting poverty. Yay, progress.

            If you were here for the Fred Magyar period, he was a bamboo bicycle enthusiast. I’m sure you’re familiar. Very beautiful. Wood bike too. I have much respect for human ingenuity and if collapse does happen (more extreme than an extended global contraction), it would be incredibly interesting to see what people put together from the detritus our civilization leaves behind; enormous amounts of resources lying around everywhere.

            A bike tech friend of mine and I went hiking a month or so ago. He told me that bicycle component supply constraints had become a very serious problem due to the pandemic. They were having difficulty sourcing both bikes and components. The persistence of lack of availability of quality N95 masks, or weird things like the continuing unavailability of iron dumb bells are interesting in light of your last paragraph. These shortages are due to simple increased demand, but are they also indicative of the underlying fragility of the global system? It seemingly hasn’t been able to effectively adapt to the current crises and changed circumstance as quickly as one might have expected.

            I’m hoping that others will also contribute their perspectives on what would define collapse, and I appreciate your responses. But maybe I could tighten it up a bit. The thing that was interesting to me from the Wired article was the established wager over a given time frame aspect. Their wager was for 25 years, and if I look at the date 2045 that seems like a long way away, but if I look back to 1995 in the context of who, where, what was happening in my life, that was nothing ago, and frankly, not much has changed in that period in my locale (except growth), nothing that would cause me to infer that by that same distance into the future I will have been roasted over a fire fueled with my house timbers and eaten by my starving neighbors. Malthus has yet to be proven right. Paul Ehrlich lost his doomer bet with Julian Simon. Kirkpatrick Sale lost his doomer bet with Kevin Kelly. Was the time frame of the bets too short? How much time must we give Malthus?

            25 years is a nice time period though, because it is long enough for something interesting to happen, but short enough to live to see it. I think we collapsniks tend to think in terms of big dramatic collapse: the famine that Survivalist envisions, the burning cities, the vacant highways and rusting cars, or the sudden disintegration of a lynchpin eco-system with the whole of the show following shortly after. But what if it is a slow ratcheting down? The indicators of the contractions that are summing to collapse being inexorable, but subtle? What if the indicators actually move the other way, also subtly, but towards sustainability?

            So again the question to anyone, rephrased: what three quantifiable indicators of collapse will you wager will be obvious in 25 years? Or conversely, if you wager that we will have turned the corner on a path to sustainability by then, what would you bet that the apparent indicators of that would be?

            Much thanks to anyone willing to contribute.

            1. I suppose I have a statistical chance of being a centenarian, but family history suggests I’ll fall a few years short of that – under the best of circumstances and with a bit of luck. So, given that I’d have to cut your 25 year time frame nearly in half – I’ll leave the betting to you youngsters 🙂

              I do very much recall Fred Magya on the Oil Drum – one of my favorites – one of the first persons I remember touting the value of LED lighting and bamboo bike frames! What is his status?

              I read Greer’s Long Descent when it first came out – (long before his deep dive into Druidry) and I still suspect that this is the default course for humanity baring Black Swans or, as you mentioned, the “sudden disintegration of a lynchpin eco-system with the whole of the show following shortly after”. I suspect that by 2099 it will either be a dystopian scenario or a 3 to 4B population sustainable one. I just don’t see how it can be a muddle-along version of today’s BAU or a cornucopian utopia.

  25. Yes, but I was thinking of the possibility of a peer to peer token kind of thing. Probably under-thinking it.

    Got some definitions?

  26. Nice to see some moral leadership, for a change.

    Europeans come down like a hammer on Saudi-UAE arms sales
    “EU member states to halt all arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, without distinction between the “offensive” and “defensive” arms, and for the body to refer the human rights violations in Yemen to the International Criminal Court.”

    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/02/19/europeans-come-down-like-a-hammer-on-saudi-uae-arms-sales/

    1. This is what happens when you trash the education system for a few decades and amp up the hot takes & moral exhortations.

  29. WHARF RAT —

    “so my eldest brother, who is a moron, has been playing soldier with his moron friends in the deserts of Texas for the last year preparing for the collapse of civilization if Biden won. They were burying food and ammo stashes out in the desert, running drills, crazy stuff…”

    Just wondering, did your brother’s survival group include a mobile surgical hospital equipped with suitably trained staff and supplies of blood plasma and all the drugs that go with an emergency hospital? Surely this would be a basic requirement of any realistic war games exercise?

    1. “Come and see how a marshal of France meets his death!” ~ Marshal Ney

  31. I think anyone thinking there will be more than a billion people on the planet after 2099 is an optimist.

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