US January Production Drops Again

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?

The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night.

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USA December Oil Production Drops

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly.   At the end, an analysis of a three different EIA reports is provided.

The charts below are updated to December 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (Production > 100 kb/d).

The data from the February EIA report shows that US production dropped from November by 84 kb/d (0.61 kb/d) to 12,779 kb/d in December. Since June, the US has increased output by an average of 164 kb/d/mth. Is this drop the beginnings of slowing LTO growth going into 2020? Today’s low oil prices are not providing any incentive to increase drilling activity. Maintaining current production and lowering expenses may be the new mantra.

For the lower 48 states, production decreased by 81 kb/d.

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Non-OPEC Output Reaches New High

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to October 2019.  Information from other sources such as the IEA and OPEC is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Non-OPEC production increased by 382 kb/d to 50,930 kb/d in October from 50,512 kb/d in September. This is second highest monthly increase for 2019 after the August increase of 699 kb/d.

October’s production exceeded the previous high of 50,919 kb/d reached in December 2018 by 11 kb/d. Gains from Norway, U.S, and Canada overcame declines from other countries to post the new October record.

Contrast what has happened with output in 2019 with 2018.  From December 2017 to December 2018, production increased from 47,768 kb/d to 50,919 kb/d, an increase of 3,151 kb/d. Of this, the three largest contributors were U.S., Russia, and Canada.  From December 2018 to October 2019, production so far has increased by 11 kb/d. How much will the next two months add?

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Permian Basin, Bakken/Three Forks and Eagle Ford Net Volume

In the discussion here I use the term net volume to refer to the volume of prospective rock that might be developed to produce tight oil.  For each bench of a prospective tight oil play (Wolfcamp A would be one example of a bench) there is an area estimate (5733 thousand acres for Wolfcamp A of Delaware) and a success ratio (%) = 94.7, in the case of Wolfcamp A.  Net acres are the total acres times the success ratio, for Wolfcamp A, 5429 thousand net acres.  On average the Wolfcamp A of the Delaware basin is about 400 feet thick, so the net volume would be net acres times thickness or 2172 million acre-feet.  An acre-foot is a volume that is one acre (44,000 square feet) by one foot thick or 44,000 cubic feet (or a box that is 1000 ft long by 44 feet wide by 1 foot high.)

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