Category: Uncategorized

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Guest post by orgfarm

Part 3 of 3

The “Nineties”

Three generations after the collapse, most folks are illiterate and animistic.  They gaze in wonder at the vast ruins of dead and decaying cities:  “Who built these places?  How did they do it?  Where did they go?  We hear stories, but truly, they must be gods.”

Food and energy remain scarce in 2090, but with reduced threat of armed conflict, communities are finally able to settle peacefully in agricultural lands around the world.  With scavenged materials they build self-sufficient towns, villages, and hamlets near waterways and important crossroads.

Settlements are resource limited, and socially cautious, averaging 150 people – “Dunbar’s number”.  For survival requires reliable families, dependable friends, and trustworthy neighbors.  These bonds minimize conflict and allow consensus to guide group action.

With careful and intensive community management, healthy soils slowly return.  Cover crop, rotation, fallow, and herd grazing practices are strictly followed.  Old cultivars when found are highly prized, while new ones are developed and exchanged with other regional growers.

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Guest post by orgfarm

Part 2 of 3

The “Sixties”

Severe food and energy shortages intensify in 2060, and ignite national fear and anger. State survival now depends on seizing the last reserves of vital resources – primarily fossil-fuel – making war inevitable.  Alliances form, nations act with righteous determination, conflict erupts around the world.

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Guest post by orgfarm

Part 1 of 3

Frequently the discussion here focuses on the concept of “collapse”.  Generally, this is a reference to the “collapse of modern industrial civilization”.  But what do we mean when we use those words?  At a minimum, it’s “a rapid decrease in global human population and global economic activity”.  Ok, easy to say, but what would that look like? 

Now there’s the rub.  Things too easily said are often too easily un-imagined, and are rarely followed to a logical endpoint.  Why?  Because analysis of the evidence often leads to uncomfortable, even frightening, conclusions we wish to avoid.  Conclusions that tell us we might be wrong in thinking about a hopeful future. 

We are far too glib when we say “collapse of civilization”.  If one understood the profound implications of that phrase (and the recent science that supports it) it might give us pause and, in a sober and deliberate way, force us to describe what we mean.  How would “collapse” unfold and what impact would it have on the nearly 10 billion humans living in 2040?

What follows is a scenario that appears increasingly likely as evidence for it accumulates from many academic disciplines.  It’s a thought experiment to be sure, but one reasonably based on data, trends, and models from the last 60 years, and an awareness of the rise and fall of civilizations over the last 6000 years.  It’s also a small attempt to open wider the “Overton Window” on this coming event that may mark the end of human history.

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