Category: Texas

US Oil Output Continues its Steady Decline

Ovi 147 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US states comes from the EIAŹ¼s Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM). At the end, an analysis of three different EIA monthly reports is provided. The charts below are updated to March 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states, (Production > or close to 100 kb/d).

Today’s June 1 update shows the continuous slow decline in oil output from US oil fields from November 2019 to March 2020. March output was 12,716 kb/d, down by 28 kb/d from February’s 12,744 kb/d. Also it should be noted that February’s output estimate from the EIA’s earlier May report, 12,833 kb/d, has been revised to 12,744 kb/d, a downward revision of 89 kb/d. The Red dot is the projected April output from the May Monthly Energy Review.

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Are Non-OPEC’s Best Days in the Rear-view Mirror

Ovi 108 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

While this post updates Non-OPEC production to January 2020, we are now in late May and the direction for future production for the next few years is clear, LOWER than where it was in March 2020. OPEC, in response to the reduced worldwide demand, arranged for a production reduction through a Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) with OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. Also Canada and Norway have indicated they will be cutting production in response to world wide reduced demand. The OPEC + DoC reduction schedule and chart are shown and discussed at the end of this post.

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Is November 2019 the New US Peak Oil Date?

Ovi 260 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.

Here I am again reporting on out of date US February oil production from the EIA April report after the world oil environment has been turned on its head. Fortunately the EIA also has some forward looking reports that make use of more current data to provide projections for a few months out. Also the EIA has a guesstimate for weekly oil output which certainly provides an indication of the direction of production over the next month. Also there are reports on rig counts that indicate activity in oil basins and provide clues on where oil output is going. Down, Down, Down.

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Non-OPEC Oil Production Punches New High

Ovi 172 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

As I wrote in my previous post, preparing these last two has been a surrealistic exercise. The oil market environment for this post has been even more surrealistic than the previous one and the associated futures contract prices have been extremely volatile this week. The May WTI front month contract went negative on April 20 for the first time ever and closed at negative $37.63/bbl while the June contract closed at $20.43. Today’s settled price, April 24, for the June contract is $16.94.

On April 7th, OPEC + finalized a record oil production cut of 9.7 Mb/d after days of discussion. The 9.7 million bpd cut will begin on May 1 and will extend through the end of June.  The cuts will then taper to 7.7 million bpd from July through the end of 2020, and 5.8 million bpd from January 2021 through April 2022. The 23-nation group will meet again on June 10 to determine if further action is needed.

The lone hold out to the deal was Mexico which was expected to cut 400 kb/d but would only agree to 100 kb/d. This was a real Mexican standoff and Mexico won because they had hedged their oil output and the more the price dropped, the more they made on their hedges. According to this report, they hedged their oil at $49/bbl in January. It was unclear how many barrels were hedged or how much was spent.

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US January Production Drops Again

Ovi 377 Comments

A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel

Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?

The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night.

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