Production Projections – Page 18

U.S. Oil Production Is Competing Against Decline

01/02/202001/02/2020 Ovi 254 Comments

A Post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel . com

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition, information from other EIA offices is provided to project future US output. At the end, an estimate is made for the decline rate in the L48 conventional oil fields and an analysis of a few different EIA reports is undertaken.

The charts below are updated to October 2019 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).

U.S. oil output continued to increase in October 2019. Production reached a new high of 12,655 kb/d, an increase 171 kb/d over September and 55 kb/d higher than estimated by the December Monthly Energy Review (MER). However it is 93 kb/d lower than the 12,748 kb/d estimated in the December STEO report. This could be an indication that the January STEO report will again lower US production estimates for 2020.

USA Oil Production by State Updated to August 2019

11/01/201911/02/2019 Ovi 167 Comments

All data for this post is from the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly

The charts below are primarily for the largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d) and are updated to August 2019. If you are interested in additional states, let it be known.

Ron has asked if I would take over the monthly posts for USA oil production. I have tentatively agreed to do that. Let us all thank Ron for his work at tracking US production and for his insights. Ron will continue to monitor what’s happening with US production and provide his comments. He is not going away.

This is my first post on US production by state. If you spot any errors, please let me know and I will try to fix them.

EIA International Energy Outlook 2019 and Oil Shock Model Scenarios

09/27/201909/27/2019 D Coyne 111 Comments

The EIA recently released its International Energy Outlook and it is quite optimistic. In the chart below I compare their estimate for World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output with an oil shock model with a URR of about 3100 Gb.

Arguments over RCP8.5

08/14/201908/14/2019 Paul Pukite 490 Comments

The climate change scientific consensus is summarized via the annual IPCC documents. In one of the IPCC sections, projections of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel usage are made in the context of several scenarios, which are referred to as Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP). Historically, the “business-as-usual” pathway was declared to be RCP8.5.

That has worked out as describing an extreme emission scenario IF society did not take corrective action in reducing emissions. In other words, RCP8.5 tracks a growth path in fossil fuels that is extrapolated from the current economic growth rate and largely dead-reckoned FF production increases.

Recently an energy analyst named Michael Liebreich challenged this assumption in the context of the possibility of greater fossil fuel depletion than is currently mapped out in the IPCC, calling the RCP8.5 estimate “bollox” in a tweet. When challenged on this assertion, he rationalized his claim as follows:

“Here’s why I reject scare stories based on RCP 8.5 and SSP5. They assume a vast increase in coal use in the absence of more international cooperation on climate. But the reality is that it coal power is peaking already. Climate change is scary enough, we don’t need ghost stories.”

— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 4, 2019

US Tight Oil Scenario based on BNP Paribas Study

08/09/201908/09/2019 D Coyne 327 Comments

An interesting analysis was recently published by BNP Paribas (one of the top 10 banks in the World by assets) entitled Wells, Wires, and Wheels… . In that analysis they argue that long term oil prices will fall to $20/b or less in order for oil used for personal land transport to compete with EVs powered by wind and solar at current cost levels.
I reworked my oil price assumptions, first with a simple scenario that follows the EIA’s AEO 2018 reference oil price scenario up to $70/b in 2017$ and then remains at that level long term. Second I noticed that a scenario with such an oil price assumption sees tight oil output fall in 2022 so the scenario was revised with oil prices rising from 70 to 80 per barrel from 2022 to 2024 and then remaining at that level until 2028. The BNP Paribus analysis suggests that EVs will have cut significantly into oil demand by 2022 to 2025 so I assume oil prices fall to $20/b over the next 10 years.
Scenarios below.

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