Natural Gas Production – Peak Oil Barrel

Gulf of Mexico update

05/25/202205/25/2022 Bob Meltz 122 Comments

Through 2021 the federal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico (OCS) have cumulative production of 23.4 Bbo and 193 Tcf. The deepwater (water depths > 1000’ as defined by BOEM) has produced 10.2 Bbo and 23.5 Tcf while the shelf has produced 13.2 Bbo and 169.5 Tcf. From a BOE standpoint, the GOM has primarily been a gas province, and the bulk of that production has come from shelf fields. While the shelf has produced more cumulative oil than deepwater, over 90% of current oil production comes from deepwater fields.

First production from the OCS occurred in 1947. First deepwater production was in 1979 from Shell’s Cognac field in 1022’ of water. GOM oil production in December 2021 was 1.69 mmbopd as per BSEE. As Ovi says in his monthly updates, if GOM were a state, it would be the 2^nd leading oil producing state in the US, only behind Texas.

Brief history of GOM gas production

GOM gas production peaked in 1997 at 14.4 bcf/day and has been declining ever since. Current gas production is about 2 bcf/day.

Figure 1 – GOM gas production, with shelf and deepwater broken out. Data from BOEM.

Annual Reserve Changes Part I: EIA and Super-Majors

04/09/202104/09/2021 George Kaplan 147 Comments

A guest post by George Kaplan

EIA US Reserve Estimates

The EIA publishes reserve data for the USA, usually in December of the following year – so that the figures presented here are for 2019. Only proved category reserves are shown and the numbers are based on companies’ annual reports and 10-k or 20-f filings (so that last year’s numbers are now being addressed as most companies have filed). Not every company is included, otherwise the net acquisitions and dispersals (the yellow bars) would surely have to sum to zero, but most are and all the big players. Net adjustments include revisions (which may be technical or economic) and other adjustments, which are fiddle factors to make the numbers add up but are usually zero or small; improved recovery is here included as discoveries and extensions. The yellow dashed line shows the net change.

UK North Sea Summary Part I: Licensing, Drilling, Discoveries and Development

12/25/202012/25/2020 George Kaplan 65 Comments

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

Discoveries and Development

The global peak in oil and gas production for UK occurred in 1999 and 2000, probably delayed by four or five years by the Piper Alpha tragedy, and will not be approached, far less exceeded, again. There have been two other local peaks, each one preceded by about ten to twelve years by a local peak in the number of discoveries. The UK Oil and Gas Authority does not publish individual field resources, but it’s a fair bet that the large fields were discovered early on and most of the recent discoveries are small, near field tie-ins.

US GoM 2019 Summary: Part III – Production

07/27/202007/27/2020 George Kaplan 40 Comments

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

Overall Annual Production

US Gulf of Mexico C&C production has had a series of peaks; firstly two from shallow oil, the middle acceleration probably caused by the mid seventies oil shock; followed by deep oil development and finally by ultra deep oil, with a dip in the middle from the Deep Horizon drilling hiatus. Most production has come from eastern and central (i.e. mainly Louisiana) with some, and falling, from the western section (Texas).

US GoM 2019 Summary: Part II – Reserves

05/10/202005/10/2020 George Kaplan 30 Comments

A Guest Post by George Kaplan

Introduction

BOEM produces an estimate of GoM reserves every year. This year’s covers estimates for then end of 2017. Nominally The figures given are 2P estimates but previous analysis has shown them to be extremely conservative, and they strictly follows SEC rules concerning reserves being bookable only if clear development plans are in place.

Backdated Reserves

These charts show reserve additions from discoveries by depth (all backdated to the original discovery year so that all adjustments due to improved extraction methods and better understanding of the reservoir etc. are included in the shoen reserve estimate), production and remaining reserves also by water depth.

The black dashes against each discovery show the original estimates of reserves. The shallow water estimates were very low and had significant upgrades, deep water not so much, and ultra-deep hardly at all. The reason for this is mainly the date of the discoveries: nominally it should be easier to apply seismic and drilling analysis from shallow water but the ultra-deep finds were made later and therefore have had better technology and seismic available when the original estimates were made; more on this later.

That said I do not know what method BOEM uses to make the estimates, it cannot be the ultra high fidelity models that the E&P companies use as they do not have the computer power, human resources or time to cover every field in the GoM.