July Non-OPEC & World Oil Production

By Ovi

The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to July 2024. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico and China is used to provide a short term outlook. 

World oil production increased by 406 kb/d in July to 81,591 kb/d, green graph. The largest increase came from Saudi Arabia, 300 kb/d. August’s World oil production is projected to increase by 295 kb/d to 81,886 kb/d.

This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2025. It uses the November 2024 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. The red graph forecasts World oil (C + C) production out to December 2025 using the STEO’s November crude oil report.

For December 2025, production is expected to be 84,634 kb/d. It is preceded by a November 2025 peak of 84,813 kb/d. The November 2025 oil production projection is 90 kb/d higher than estimated in the previous post.

From July 2024 to December 2025, World oil production is estimated to increase by 3,043 kb/d. This appears to be optimistic in light of the projected lower demand from China and OPEC’s plan to increase production in the near future, which keeps being delayed.

A note of caution. The November STEO is now reporting/forecasting only Crude oil production which is also shown in the chart. As a result the red C+C graph is a projection based on the crude production graph.

Over the past 10 months, it has been noted that the ratio (C + C)/C was changing MoM, possibly due to the EIA’s new crude reporting format. As a result the six month average ratio of (C + C)/C was used to make the December 2025 projection. Over the last 10 months that ratio has now settled down to 1.067 ± 0.01 with only a small variation. As such going forward the six month ratio will continue to be used to project future production. Based on the current data it appears there is a seasonal variation in the ratio (C + C)/C.

World July oil output without US increased by 440 kb/d to 68,384 kb/d. August production is expected to rise by 101 kb/d to 68,485 kb/d.

Note that December 2025 output of 71,001 kb/d is 1,684 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 72,685 kb/d.

World oil production W/O the U.S. from July 2024 to December 2025 is forecast to increase by a total of 2,617 kb/d.

A Different Perspective on World Oil Production

Peak production in the Big 3 occurred in April 2020 at a rate of 34,739 kb/d. The peak was associated with a large production increase from Saudi Arabia. Post covid, production peaked at 34,010 kb/d in September 2022. The production drop since then is primarily due to cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and cutbacks/decline by Russia.

July’s Big 3 oil production increased by 250 kb/d to 32,164 kb/d. July’s production is 1,846 kb/d lower than the September 2022 post pandemic high of 34,010 kb/d. Of the three, the country with the largest increase was Saudi Arabia with a rise of 300 kb/d, see Table below.

Adding in the current Saudi Arabia 1,000 kb/d cut would raise production to 33,164 kb/d, just 846 kb/d lower than September 2022 production. Saudi Arabia along with other countries which were scheduled to reverse their cuts in October 2024 have now delayed them to January 2025 because of lower than expected China/World oil demand.

Production in the Remaining Countries had been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,930 kb/d. Output in December 2023 reached 50,513 kb/d, a new post covid high. However production began to fall in January 2024 but has since reversed. July’s production increased by 157 kb/d to 49,427 kb/d. Of the 157 kb/d increase, Canada contributed 131 kb/d and Iraq added 110 kb/d. The overall drop from December 2023 to July 2024 is 1,086 kb/d.

Countries Ranked by Oil Production

Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In July 2024, these 13 countries produced 79.1% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production increased by 469 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis, production rose by 416 kb/d. Note the large YoY production increase in Iran and Iraq. Will the upcoming more strict sanctions on Iran curb that increasing trend?

July Non-OPEC Country Oil Production Charts

July Non-OPEC oil production decreased by 85 kb/d to 52,513 kb/d. The largest decreases came from Brazil and Guyana while Saudi Arabia’s increase offset those losses. Note that Non-OPEC production now includes Angola.

Using data from the November 2024 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period August 2024 to December 2025. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 55,292 kb/d in December 2025, which is 1,320 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 53,972 kb/d.

From December 2023 to December 2025, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 987 kb/d.

July’s Non-OPEC W/O US oil production dropped by 61 kb/d to 39,307 kb/d. August’s production is projected to rise by 204 kb/d to 39,511 kb/d.

From July 2024 to December 2025, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 2,324 kb/d. December 2025 production is projected to be 461 kb/d higher than December 2019.

Note that from December 2023 to December 2025, Non-OPEC W/O US oil production is expected to increase by 634 kb/d. These Non-OPEC countries include Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the three countries often noted by the IEA as the countries with the likest ability to increase production to new records.

Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production

Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table is that all of the countries produce more than 1,000 kb/d. Note that Angola has been added to this table and that Oman has recently fallen below 1,000 kb/d.

July’s production decreased by 43 kb/d to 44,166 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a monthly production drop of 85 kb/d to 52,513 kb/d.

In July 2024, these 11 countries produced 84.1% of all Non-OPEC oil production. 

Angola has been added to the Non-OPEC producing countries since they withdrew from OPEC.

Angola’s July production decreased by 50 kb/d to 1,125 kb/d. Angola’s production since early 2022 appears to have settled into a plateau phase between 1,100 kb/d and 1,200 kb/d.

According to this Article, Angola is looking to increase its production and attract more investments. The African oil producer plans to launch additional multi-year oil and gas licensing rounds from 2026.

“Angola intends to replicate its maiden multi-year licensing round for oil and gas acreage from 2026, a senior government energy official said on Thursday, as the country looks to boost production and investment.

The first multi-year auction for 50 onshore and offshore blocks was for 2019-2025, as Angola strives to arrest a steep decline in crude oil production from mature oilfields.”

The EIA reported that Brazil’s July production dropped by 179 kb/d to 3,230 kb/d.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production increased in August and September 3,470 kb/d. The BNPA has started reporting Brazil’s pre-salt production again. The September pre-salt graph tracks the crude oil graph. For September, pre-salt production increased by 170 kb/d and reached a new high.

Overall Brazil production after September has to increase by 208 kb/d to exceed the November 2023 high.

Canada’s production increased by 131 kb/d in July to 4,793 kb/d. The increase is primarily due to the return to operations of facilities shut down for maintenance.

Canada’s oil sands have a new problem. The Canadian government is opposed to increasing oil sands production. It will require Canada’s oil and gas industry to cut emissions by 35% from 2019 levels, inflaming tensions with the country’s western provinces and oil companies.

According to this Article, “The plan will be implemented through a cap-and-trade system that sets a legal limit on the sector’s emissions and then lets companies buy and sell a limited number of emissions allowances, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced on Monday.”

Alberta, home of the oil sands will fight this legislation “Alberta’s provincial government will explore legal challenges to the emissions cap and draft a motion under the so-called Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, which orders provincial agencies to not enforce or aid in enforcing federal rules deemed unconstitutional or “causing harm to Albertans.” 

The province is the home of Canada’s oil sands and produces the majority of its crude. 

“We will not stand idly by while Justin Trudeau sacrifices our prosperity, our constitution and our quality of life for his extreme agenda,” Premier Danielle Smith said during a press conference Monday. “I’ll get my justice minister working on it immediately and we will start drafting a motion under the sovereignty act immediately as well, so we are going to act very quickly.”

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said the cap will add an “unnecessarily complex layer on top of an already overly complex web of energy and climate regulations.”

“The introduction of this draft regulation comes with the high probability of negative impacts on the Canadian economy and no guarantee of emissions reductions,” Lisa Baiton, president of CAPP, said in a statement.

TC Energy Corp. Chief Executive Officer Francois Poirier said the measure would act as a cap on Canadian natural gas production, harming “Canadian families and businesses by raising prices on energy.”

The opposition conservative party opposes this plan.

“The shelf life of the emissions cap is in doubt, however, as Canada is due for a federal election by October 2025. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is ahead by double digits in most polls and has promised to scrap many of Trudeau’s climate policies.

“Trudeau wants to suffocate Canada’s energy industry with an arbitrary emissions cap that will devastate Canada’s already broken economy,” Poilievre’s party said in a statement reacting to the plan’s details.”

The EIA reported China’s July oil output decreased by 35 kb/d to 4,215 kb/d.

The China National Bureau of Statistics reported production for August and September. September production dropped to 4,154 kb/d.

According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s oil output increased by 26 kb/d in July to 1,834 kb/d. Kazakhstan’s recent crude oil production, as reported by Argus, has been added to the chart. In October crude production dropped by 200 kb/d to 1,260 kb/d.

Since January, Kazakhstan crude production has dropped by 550 kb/d to 1,260 kb/d. Their OPEC production target is 1,470 kb/d. At 1,260 kb/d, Kazakhstan is below target and compensating for its earlier over production.

According to the EIA, Mexico’s July’s output increased by 10 kb/d to 1,852 kb/d.

In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.

In earlier reports, the EIA would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex report. The gap between the EIA report and Pemex on average has been close to 55 kb/d over the last 6 months. However for June and July, the condensate contribution increased to 70 kb/d and 90 kb/d respectively.

For August and September 90 kb/d has been added to the Pemex report to estimate Mexico’s August and September’s production of C + C, red markers. Note that Mexico’s production has continued to fall every month. The increase in the EIA report for June and July may just be a revision/correction.

The EIA reported Norway’s July production increased by 103 kb/d to 1,849 kb/d.

Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that August dropped by 66 kb/d to 1,784 kb/d and September dropped to 1,610 kb/d, red markers.

The Norway Petroleum Directorship stated that September’s oil production was 1.5% more than forecast. This is an indicator that the drop was due to maintenance.

Oman’s production had risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, July’s output rose by 1 kb/d to 992 kb/d.

Oman produces a lot of condensate. The OPEC MOMR reports that crude production in June was 766 kb/d, 225 kb/d lower than the EIA’s C + C.

The EIA has been reporting flat output of 1,322 kb/d for Qatar since early 2022. However the current July update has revised down all of that production data. Qatar’s July output was reported again to be 1,322 kb/d.

The EIA reported Russia’s July’s C + C production dropped by 25 kb/d to 9,739 kb/d.

Using data from Argus Media reports, Russian crude production is shown from May 2023 to October 2024. For October 2024, Argus reported Russian crude production was 8,970 kb/d, unchanged from September, blue markers. Adding 8% to Argus’ October crude production provides a C + C production estimate of 9,688 kb/d for Russia, which is a proxy for the Pre-War Russian Ministry estimate, red markers.

According to Argus, Russian crude production of 8,970 kb/d is in compliance with their OPEC target of 8,980 kb/d. However Platts is reporting Russian production of 9,030 kb/d which is 52kb/d higher than the quota of 8,978 kb/d.

In pre-war times, the Russia Energy Ministry production estimate used to be 400 kb/d higher than the EIA estimate. For July, the Argus proxy estimate is just 35 kb/d higher.

Can we believe the Russian production numbers? What are their sources of information?

According to this Article Russian September production was “8.97 million barrels a day last month, the people said on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public. That’s down about 13,000 barrels a day down from the August level.”

The last two paragraphs, shown below, provide some insight on why it may be necessary to take the Russian information with a grain of salt. Since the data is classified, are these official sources providing information with the approval of higher ups that is designed to put Russian oil production in a more favourable light

“Russia has classified official output data amid Western sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving oil market watchers with just a few gauges, such as seaborne oil exports and domestic refinery runs, to follow trends in the industry.

Earlier this year, Moscow also changed the way it reports data used to compile OPEC+ production estimates, making an independent assessment of its compliance with output cuts more difficult. The Energy Ministry now reports the data in barrels per day and appears to be using a ton-to-barrel ratio at the lower end of the traditional conversion factors used by analysts for Russia’s crudes.“

The November EIA/STEO has made a small change to US oil production from its previous forecast posted a week ago. The EIA continues to forecast flat US oil production from November 2024 to October 2025 but has lowered December 2025 production by 51 kb/d to 13,661.

From August 2024 to December 2024 oil production is estimated to increase by 260 kb/d. Production growth slows after November 2024.