By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data, oil, for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to August 2024.
U.S. August oil production increased by 195 kb/d to 13,401 kb/d to another record high. The previous record was 13,308 kb/d in December 2023. The largest increases came from Texas, 99 kb/d and New Mexico, 57 kb/d.
US oil production has been essentially flat since September 2023 when it was 13,177 kb/d. August is at a new high and very close to 13,500 kb/d, where it is expected to remain for most of next year.
The dark blue graph, taken from the October 2024 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from September 2024 to December 2025. Output for December 2025 is expected to reach 13,712 kb/d. From August 2024 to December 2025 production is expected to grow by 311 kb/d or at an average rate of 19.4 kb/d/mth.
The red OLS line from June 2020 to December 2023 indicates a monthly production growth rate of 65 kb/d/mth or 780 kb/d/yr. Production going forward is projected to increase at about 30% of that rate.
The light blue graph is the STEO’s projection for output to December 2025 for the Onshore L48. August Onshore L48 production is up by 53 kb/d to 11,145 kb/d. From August 2024 to December 2025, production is expected to increase by 277 kb/d to 11,442 kb/d, revised down from 11,605 kb/d in the previous post.
US Oil Production Ranked by State
Listed above are the 11 US states with the largest oil production along with the Gulf of Mexico. Ohio has been added to this table since its production approached 100 kb/d in January and exceeded Louisiana’s production. These 11 states accounted for 84.1% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,401 kb/d in August 2024.
On a MoM basis, August US oil production rose by 195 kb/d. Note that the top 3 states accounted for 167 kb/d of the 195 kb/d increase. On a YoY basis, US production increased by 354 kb/d. GOM production increased by 3 kb/d MoM while dropping by 67 kb/d YoY.
State Oil Production Charts
Texas production increased by 99 kb/d in August to 5,818 kb/d. a new record high. YoY production is up by 215 kb/d.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month, shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs had no impact on production until July 2024.
As of August, production rose even though the rig count continues to fall. This is a clear indication that some significant improvements have been made with drilling technology and possibly fracturing.
According to the EIA, New Mexico’s August production rose by 57 kb/d to 2,092 kb/d, a new record high.
August’s output increased by 11 kb/d to 1,169 kb/d. YoY production was down by 38 kb/d. Production is down by 118 kb/d from the post pandemic peak of 1,287 kb/d.
According to this article, North Dakota’s oil production rose in August due to a new high in active wells and increasing completions.
Department of Mineral Resources Assistant Director Mark Bohrer said oil production was up to about 1.18 million barrels a day, which is less than a 1% increase. Gas production, meanwhile, went up about 2% compared to July. It marks the end of a three-month slide for the industry.
“We’ve been expecting this production uptick for quite some time now, based on the completions we saw in August, and it seems to have come true,” said Bohrer.
The state recorded a new high for active wells with 19,117.
Another article provides a lot of interesting information.
“Rig count has been steady. There’s 40 rigs running today (Thursday),” he said.“Even with all the mergers and acquisition going on, our rig count has remained fairly steady.”
He said about 376 wells were waiting on completions and 1,903 wells were inactive. This was an uptick compared to July when there were 1,771 inactive wells.
He said the wide fluctuations in inactive wells from month to month are not unusual.
“Wells get shut in for different reasons. One of the big reasons they get shut in is for fracking of offset wells,”he said.
Completions in September were at 58.
“That was a disappointing number,” Bohrer said. He said they were hoping it wouldn’t be that low. “It could be a delay in reporting – a lag when reports come in. We’re hoping that’s what it is,” he said. He said there also could be more 3-mile wells being completed now. Those take longer to complete so the number of wells a crew can complete per month is not as large as if they are all 2-mile wells. We’re going to start crunching the numbers on that, analyzing that data, to see what the relationship there is,” he said.
Alaskaʼs August output dropped by 11 kb/d to 396 kb/d while YoY production was unchanged at 396 kb/d. The small drop in production is an indication that summer maintenance is winding down and production should begin to recover in September. Weekly Alaska September production reports are close to 410 kb/d.
Coloradoʼs August oil production increased by 9 kb/d to 455 kb/d. Colorado has moved ahead of Alaska to become the 4th largest US oil producing state. Colorado began the year with 12 rigs but has now dropped to 10 during June, July and August and had 8 in operation October.
Oklahoma’s output in August rose by 6 kb/d to 384 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 68 kb/d since May 2023. Output entered a slow declining phase in June 2023.
Oklahoma’s rig count dropped from 40 in May to 30 in July. By the end of September 2024 there was an uptick to 41 operational rigs. Will the increase in the rig count reverse the current dropping production trend?
California’s declining production trend continues. However Californiaʼs August production reversed the trend by increasing by 1 kb/d to 283 kb/d, which was the same as reported last month.
Wyoming’s oil production has been rebounding since March 2023. However the rebound was impacted by the January 2024 storm. August’s production rose 7 kb/d to 298 kb/d. Note that production has almost recovered to the pre-Covid level of 302 kb/d.
August’s production decreased by 4 kb/d to 187 kb/d. Utah had 9 oil rigs in operation from January to September 2024 but dropped to 8 in October.
Ohio has been added to the Louisiana chart because Ohio’s production has been slowly increasing since October 2021 and passed Louisiana in November.
Louisiana’s output entered a slow decline phase in October 2022. August’s production dropped by 4 kb/d to 84 kb/d.
Ohio’s August oil production added 8 kb/d to 107 kb/d, a new high. The most recent Baker Hughes rig report shows two horizontal oil rigs operating in Ohio in August, September and October.
This is a bonus state for November. Production in Montana has been on an almost steady rise since the low of May 2020. Montana had one operational rig from June to October, down from 2 from May.
GOM production rose by 3 kb/d in August to 1,809 kb/d but is expected drop by 176 kb/d in September to 1,633 kb/d due to hurricanes.
The October 2024 STEO projection for the GOM output has been added to this chart. It projects production from August 2024 to December 2025 will rise by 73 kb/d to 1,882 kb/d, 25 kb/d lower than the 1,907 kb/d reported last month.
A Different Perspective on US Oil Production
The Big Two states combined oil output for Texas and New Mexico.
August’s production in the Big Two states increased by a combined 156 kb/d to 7,910 kb/d, a new high, with Texas adding 99 kb/d while New Mexico added 57 kb/d.
Oil production by The Rest
August’s oil production in The Rest rose by 48 kb/d to 3,286 kb/d and is 184 kb/d lower than November 2023.
The main takeaway from The Rest chart is that current production is below the high of October 2019 and is a significant loss that occurred during the Covid shut down and will not be readily recovered. Note that production is now getting closer to the Sept 2020 post covid rebound to 3,292 kb/d.
The OnShore L48 W/O the big three, Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota, shows production is on a plateau in the range of 2,125 ±75 kb/d from January 2023.
August’s production increased by 37 kb/d to 2,117 kb/d.
Permian Basin Report by Main Counties and Districts
This special monthly Permian section was recently added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus recently by the Goehring and Rozencwajg Report which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak. Also comments by posters on this site have similar beliefs from hands on experience.
This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.
Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.
New Mexico Permian
The total rig count in Lea and Eddy counties in the week ending November 1 is down 8 from the early July count of 100.
Lea county has been bouncing around 50 rigs since July. Eddy county rig count has been in a slow decline since March and appears to be hinting at stabilizing around 44 rigs.
Comparison chart from last month to compare with the current August chart below.
This chart shown in previous posts was indicating that oil production in Lea County was following the drilling chart delayed by 8 months up to July. However while August oil production rose by 61 kb/d, it is incorrect.
The reason for the sharp turnaround from declining production to increasing production is the same as happened in the June update.
In the June update, the following was noted: “The June update made a total upward revision of 48 kb/d to production between the months March 2023 to June 2023. This revision shifted both the original June OCD data and the projection upward and created a big gap between the June data and the projection.” Typically there would be a minimal 1 kb/d or none that far back. (See comparison chart above)
For August, a total upward production revision of 35 kb/d was added between October 2022 and February 2023. In addition a much larger than normal revision was made between October 2023 and March 2024. These two revisions separated the green and red graphs. One can see where the graphs begin to separate in January 2023. Earlier posts showed almost no changes between the original data and the projection after one year, see comparison chart above.”
So again I must say that while this is what the model forecasts, I don’t think the production figures are correct. It should be sorted out next month, provided the production revisions are more typical.
While August is showing a production increase of 61 kb/d, 70 kb/d are due to the revisions noted above. This implies that Lea County August production should have been flat or slightly down.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to April 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count and oil production.
Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because very few extra DUCs are being completed at this time.
While the production revisions have affected the production charts, the GOR has not been affected.
After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just above 1,000 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production rose more slowly while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.
Since July 2023 the Lea county GOR has continued to increase as production increased within a second semi-bounded GOR. This may indicate that the current production increase is coming from a new bench/field since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.
However from April to August, the GOR moved out of the Second semi bounded GOR region and production reached a new high 1,182 kb/d in May along with an another increase in the GOR. The GOR increase since May along with dropping production is another indicator that Lea county has entered the bubble point phase for a second time and that production in the near term indicates that Lea County may be past its peak.
This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See an additional two cases below.
Comparison chart from last month to compare with the current August chart below.
Eddy county oil production updates have had the same effects to the production projection as the Lea county updates. In this case the updates start to show up in July 2023. Again last month’s Eddy County chart is shown above for comparison. Note the minimal changes between the initial July data before January 2024.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in October 2023.
If production were to follow the rig count trend going forward, production should continue to rise for the next few months, but not as much as shown.
The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the semi bounded range earlier and for a longer time and then added a second semi bounded GOR phase. For August it continues to stay within the second semi-bounded region.
Texas Permian
The Midland county rig count has been rising since July and is up 8 to 26. The opposite is true for Martin county. On November 1, 27 rigs were operational, down from 45 in July 2023.
Texas County Oil Production
Texas made significant revisions to its earlier production data and the projections presented in this section in earlier posts will not be posted for August since I believe they are incorrect for the same reasons as given for Lea and Martin counties.
Above is an example. For many months in previous posts, Midland county production has been declining. The revisions turn that around and show rising production.
The GORs for a number of counties and District 8 are not affected by the revisions and are shown below.
The GOR is increasing every month in the four Texas counties and District 8, which includes the four counties plus many others. The smallest production drop is in Martin county and it may be on a production plateau before starting to drop.
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to September 2024. The report also projects output to December 2025. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to September 2024.
The Sepember 2024 oil production for the 5 DPR regions tracked by the EIA is shown above. Also a projection by the STEO to December 2025 has been added, red markers. Note DPR production includes both LTO oil and oil from conventional wells. Production for the Anadarko and Niobrara regions is no longer available.
The DPR is reporting September oil output in the five regions increase by 62 kb/d to 9,045 kb/d. Production is expected to grow by 48 kb/d in October to 9,093 kb/d. By December 2025 production is expected to reach 9,478 kb/d. This is 155 kb/d lower than forecast in the previous update. Also the previous update expected September production to be 9,063 kb/d, 18 kb/d higher than actual of 9,045 kb/d.
The EIA’s October DPR report shows Permian output increased by 42 kb/d to 6,344 kb/d. By December 2025 output is expected to be 6,626 kb/d, 102 kb/d lower than estimated in the previous report.
Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline.
According to the new wells and legacy decline graphs September production should have increased by 34 kb/d which is close to the actual 42 kb/d reported.
Output in the Eagle Ford basin has been increasing since January 2024 and may have peaked in August 2024. September production is down by 5 kb/d to 1,197 kb/d. Production is projected to decline going forward with output in December 2025 projected to be 1,085 kb/d which is down by 77 kb/d from the previous STEO projection of 1,162 kb/d.
The DPR/STEO forecasts Bakken output in September rose 23 kb/d to 1,305 kb/d. The STEO projection out to December 2025 shows output varying between 1,325 kb/d and 1,370 kb/d over the next 15 months.
This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. For September output rose by 61 kb/d to 8,847 kb/d. Production in December 2025 is expected to reach 9,061 kb/d. This is 207 kb/d lower than forecast in the previous report.
DUCs and Drilled Wells
The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions has fallen every month since July 2020. September DUCs decreased by 1 to 1,510. In the Permian, the DUC count increased by 11 to 881.
In the three primary LTO regions, 615 wells were completed and 614 were drilled, i.e. only 1 extra DUC was completed.
In the Permian, the monthly completion and drilling rates have been both stabilizing in the 440 to 450 range over the last five months.
In September 2024, 440 wells were completed while 451 new wells were drilled. This is the fifth month in which the number of wells drilled exceeded the number of completed wells. Does this indicate that some new oil area has been discovered?