164 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, December 1, 2019”

  3. islandboy, a bit of trivia for your morning read. ?

    COUNTRIES FROM SIBERIA TO AUSTRALIA ARE BURNING: THE AGE OF FIRE IS THE BLEAKEST WARNING YET

    “Now a new UN report says fossil corporates plan to ramp up carbon emissions 50% to 120% by 2030 beyond the limit for a safe human future. Despite the renewables boom, fossil infrastructure investment has rebounded in 2019 after three years of decline. On the face of it, the fossil lobby has turned the tide…

    There are only three motives to so hazard civilization: greed, malice and ignorance. Either the returns are so great that fossil executives are willing to cook their own grandchildren, or they are blind to the risks. Since these are technical people, the latter does not ring true: oil majors like Shell and ExxonMobil have revealed in court they understood exactly what they were doing to the planet for nearly 50 years. Ignoring it, they then sought to deceive humanity while ramping up carbon output.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/29/countries-from-siberia-to-australia-are-burning-the-age-of-fire-is-the-bleakest-warning-yet

    1. Meanwhile, in Sept. (2019), the Trump administration said they would like to see the entire coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge opened for gas and oil exploration. This is claimed to be the most aggressive of their suggested development options yet.

      1. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/what-it-means-be-part-resistance/602302/?fbclid=IwAR05RGr13cju__rVHs8ivNfvNP0Nt2aGy94-ucSl52QDfQKGZ2sI9dQZEF4

        Things might be so bad, politically, economically, and environmentally already that a hard crash world wide is baked in already.

        Some days I’m convinced that this is the case, and only a few lucky people are going to pull thru and that that few will have to revert to a pre Industrial Revolution economic life style.

        But at least there will be PLENTY of stuff around for them to salvage. Nobody will have to make clay pots again, for centuries at least. There would be at least a dozen stainless steel and ceramic cooking utensils to be salvaged from a typical suburban home, and Sky Daddy alone could say whatever else might turn out to be priceless in a post apocalypse environment.

        1. OFM —

          Having worked in many third world countries sometimes I’d ask people what the “strongest” memory was from their youth. Pretty much always got the same answer: the seemingly never-ending pain from dental decay/infections. When you can drive into town and visit a dentist in a few hours you tend to get your priorities wrong. I almost lost a guy in a remote bush camp owing to his impacted wisdom tooth. There was NOTHING we could do. What would (does) your survivalist medical supplies kit include?

          1. Hi Doug,
            In my doomer book collection I keep copies of “Where There is No Doctor” and “Where There is No Dentist” and a couple of other titles on medicinal herbs.

            I also hoard pain and antibiotic pills and have a basic medical/surgical kit. I have had enough dental problems in my life to focus me very well on those kinds of problems.

            But regardless without ready access to a dentist you are back to the days of self or amateur dentistry. Not a pleasant prospect. Basically that means any problems with a tooth leads to the tooth being extracted…in any way possible.

            1. “Basically that means any problems with a tooth leads to the tooth being extracted…in any way possible.”

              I agree but wisdom teeth, molars and premolars can be difficult. This is especially true when the roots curve round and become lodged in the jaw. This happened to me and dental surgery was required; let me tell you — not recommended for “backyard dentistry”.

            3. Caelan Versus The Tooth Faeries: Round One

              I have a broken tooth from a fallen-out filling that will need attention– maybe a molar or kind of like one– and the pain at one point was I suppose like a few angels tapping my tooth and that side of my jaw and head with baseball bats as they danced on the head of a pin planted into my gums.

              So what I did at first was brush it with a toothbrush, a little more thoroughly, vigorously and harder than a usual brushing, and then take roughly half a teaspoon of table salt and swish it around my mouth for about 30 seconds– not exactly pleasant, but bearable– with a short gargle in-between.
              Then, I didn’t, and don’t, consume any food/drink– or at the very least, sweets, including sugary drinks and coffee– until I was and am properly hungry/thirsty.
              Then, immediately after consumption, I do the same salt-rinse thing (about 20 seconds), minus the brushing if it is not the time to brush or is uneeded.
              Results: The pain has completely disappeared, including with eating hot or cold foods like soup or ice-cream, and only slowly returns when I might neglect this new routine that is buying me some time.

              The conjecture is that salt is a kind of preservative/antiseptic and might even shift the ph, such as away from such things as coffee (which seems to shift the ph [acid?] to what might encourage plaque/bad breath). As I write this, I’m enjoying an icy and spicy milk-brewed chai without any tooth pain or even sensitivity.

              I imagine that if or when dentists and other specialists disappear, some will wish to take on, if more casually/informally, some of those tasks, which can also be preventative, meaning for example and in this context; ‘Be careful/take precautions with what you eat and drink vis-a-vis your teeth/health.’.
              These days many are consuming more of an industrial diet anyway that may be rich in what can threaten more our health, including teeth, and so some ill effects of industrialization may disappear as industrialization disappears, if maybe not entirely, with it.
              It is also imagined that there are wild medicinals that may be used as topical and general anaesthetics/antiseptics, although I am as yet unsure how they could/would be applied.

              …Maybe a scorpion would do in being persuaded to sting a particular section of the body, like gums around a bad tooth, before some sort of home-surgery was performed.

              Doug: I meant to ask you or anyone else who might know, if lost tooth minerals can be ‘electroplated’ back onto the tooth. You may recall my mention of this a couple or so of years ago, along with a couple of websites of those who may have been working on something similar.
              My idea is if one can 3D-extrapolate and then print the rest/missing part of a tooth, a negative space of it could then be recreated, placed upon said tooth and a mineral solution added to the volume whereby the tooth’s mineral and structure could then be electroplated/grown (or whatever term that might be called) until the tooth-shaped volume was filled and so tooth remineralized/regrown. (The electricity would flow only through the tooth/solution, not the person. LOL)
              Part of this idea was inspired by stalagtites/stalagmites. What do you think?

              “in ancient folklore faeries were often portrayed as powerful beings who could wreak havoc on the lives of humans” ~ Merriam Webster

            4. Your idea for tooth reconstruction sounds very high tech especially considering your stance on tech in other areas!

              My ideas on dental health might be considered somewhat radical and only very slightly high tech, in that they rely on industrially manufactured vitamin C in some cases. Vitamin C is the primary “fuel” for the immune system, in addition to being a major component necessary for the synthesis of collagen. The need for vitamin C varies widely depending on the needs of the body at any particular time, with certain factors boosting the need for vitamin C in a big way. These factors include wounds, exposure to toxins (cigarette smoke), infections (bacterial and viral) and stress among others.

              One doctor, the late Dr. Robert F. Cathcart M.D. who’s work I have followed closely, advocated for the use of high dosage vitamin C for the treatment of many ailments and developed a protocol for determining adequate dosage known as “titrating to bowel tolerance”. Using this method he determined that under certain circumstances, some patients could consume over 200 grams (200,000 mg) of vitamin C without experiencing loose bowels. See:

              How to Determine a Therapeutic Dose of Vitamin C, by Robert F. Cathcart, MD

              There’s tons of other stuff at the doctor yourself web site that I would consider indispensable in the event of a collapse

              My anecdotal experience goes as far back as my college days when my diet was restricted by what I could afford so my intake of fruits and vegetables was restricted, except during mango season. There were mango trees in the yard where I lived and would go from being somewhat constipated most of the time to mildly loose bowels, just by eating enough mangoes.

              Over the years I have come to associate episodes of constipation with toothaches and general problems with my teeth. For some time now I have tried to maintain adequate levels of vitamin C using Cathcart’s methods. Back in 2015 there was a bad fire at the municipal landfill that blanketed the entire city in acrid smoke for more than two weeks. About the same time, I started experiencing constipation and toothaches. I had to step up my vitamin C intake to what some may consider a crazy high amount of 18 to 24 grams per day, to prevent constipation. This kept up for about two and a half years until one day, suddenly I experienced severe loose bowels. Even a doctor I know who actually prefers to treat his patients with vitamin supplements could not come up with an explanation for what was happening.

              Now I consider myself back to normal since more than two grams over the course of a day (too many mangoes) will produce the telltale symptoms of too much vitamin C, unless I have a wound or infection of some sort.

              My takeaway from all this is that, once your body has optimum (bowel tolerance) levels of vitamin C you should have no problems with gums and teeth. Now, any time I see somebody with tooth decay, I assume that their vitamin C intake is inadequate. The thing is, when your requirements for vitamin C skyrocket, as they do under certain circumstances e.g. a bad wound, or persistent exposure to cigarette smoke or smog, it is extremely challenging to get enough without the use of high dose supplements.

              I am a confirmed vitamin C junkie and one of the things that worries me about a collapse of the status quo, as far as my health is concerned, is loosing access to readily available supplies of high dose vitamin C supplements. That and a reliable supply of toilet paper! 😉

            5. Vitamin C is the primary “fuel” for the immune system

              Islandboy, it is important, but being the primary fuel is a little exaggerated. The immune system and general health is boosted by a joint effort of vitamines, minerals, trace elements and a variety of anti-oxidants (vitamin C is only one of the many existing). The role of vitamin D is generally underestimated, also being seen now as a hormone and not only a vitamin. vitamin D most abundant source is …the sun.
              Taking 1-2 gram of vitamin C daily in some circumstances seems reasonable, preferably divided in at least 4 doses a day, because of the short half-life of vitamin C in the body.

              One doctor, the late Dr. Robert F. Cathcart M.D. who’s work I have followed closely, advocated for the use of high dosage vitamin C for the treatment of many ailments….

              Better known and famous for advocating high doses of vitamin C was Linus Pauling. He took 3 gram a day, which is more than 30 (!) times the recommended daily amount. Certainly stress and smoking increases the need for vitamin C, but not by a factor 30. Cathcart using massive doses of ascorbate in some circumstances in the past is remarkable.
              By the way, very high doses can have more side effects than diarrhea and nausea, but the ones who believe it makes sense to take very high doses would take the discomforts, if not too annoying.

            6. “Your idea for tooth reconstruction sounds very high tech especially considering your stance on tech in other areas!” ~ islandboy

              Talk about being predictable: I suspected someone would say something like this… (I even thought that the tooth-reconstruction thing might be feasible with lower-tech that what I described.)

              Before I read the rest of your comment, Alan, if I have the time, I’ll just say for now that I suppose a little repetition is important in order for some people to grasp that I’m not against technology per se (which I’ve written before with details and references), but, rather, let’s call it, pseudotechnology, innapropriate technology (often one-and-the-same with pseudotechnology) and, largely, the demonstrated human incapacity to effectivey manage it and/or understand it and what they are doing with it, what its negative impacts are, such as to nature, individuals and local communities, or why they need it, etc.. Stuff like that. If anything, and ironically, I like to think I’m one of the most technologically-oriented people around.

              But technology won’t help us if we cannot help ourselves.

            7. As for the rest, any one thing like solar panels or vitamin C thrown at every other problem like silver bullets will be just that– silver bullets.

              Despite people’s apparent knowledge of the term, silver bullet, it is remarkable how they seem to forget it when trying to apply silver-bullet solutions to multifaceted problems.

              Even Dennis Coyne, as an example in the last thread, astoundingly appeared to ask me for such a solution to all problems. (But perhaps it was some sort of ‘typo’.)

              I doubt even God could pull off such an ‘impossible answer’.

            8. ” it is important, but being the primary fuel is a little exaggerated.”

              No, it is not exaggerated! How do you explain the story of a 20 lb. (9 kg) infant that, received just over 2,000 mg vitamin C per kilogram body weight per day, without experiencing diarrhea, as told by Andrew Saul, the founder of the doctoryourself.com web site? The story was part of his review of the following book (which I have read):

              Ascorbate: The Science of Vitamin C
              by Hilary Roberts, Steve Hickey

              To understand the science behind vitamin C it also helps to read:

              The Healing Factor
              Vitamin C Against Disease
              By Irwin Stone

              or at least the

              Intro and Part I

              The entire book by Stone is available for reading at The Vitamin C Foundation web site.

              I do not discount the role of other factors, like vitamin D in immune system health as vitamin D also appear to be a factor in the story of my kid sister.

              In 2007 my kid sister who lived in the UK, was being treated for cancer, which had been in remission after a lump had been removed from her breast about seven years earlier. When all other options had failed, she turned to me to ask about this high dose vitamin C treatment I had been trying to get her to consider. The treatment I was looking at was a high dose IV administration of vitamin C three times per week as practiced by proponents of the high dose treatment in the US. This protocol is open ended and is continued until the patient recovers or dies.

              Unfortunately the only protocol that we could convince anyone in the UK to try was one developed by a UK practitioner that involved daily administration for three weeks. In the final days, she was receiving 75g (75,000 mg) in 2 litres of water during a two hour visit to a private clinic. On the weekends, we paid a nurse to administer the infusion at her home, near the facility where she was being looked after. The most significant side effect I observed was the diuretic effect of vitamin c resulting in the need to urinate twice in two hours!

              My sister died three weeks after the treatment was stopped and it upsets me to think that the medical profession, by and large, is so stridently opposed to a relatively inexpensive and harmless treatment for a multitude of illnesses, see:

              The Origin of the 42-Year Stonewall of Vitamin C

              The story of New Zealander Alan Smith’s encounter with swine flue and how, by his account he owes his life to vitamin C, is also interesting if anyone cares to look it up!

            9. Islandboy wrote:

              No, it is not exaggerated! How do you explain the story of a 20 lb. (9 kg) infant that, received just over 2,000 mg vitamin C per kilogram body weight per day, without experiencing diarrhea,…

              Why does that prove that vitamine C is the primary “fuel” of the immune system, even when some people get better with massive intravenous doses of vitamin C ?

              A healthy immune system is not capable of curing cancer, a ten times higher intake of vitamin C than normally necessary for a healthy immune system is not able to do it, but a 1000 times higher intake cures cancer claim the people you mention.

              and it upsets me to think that the medical profession, by and large, is so stridently opposed to a relatively inexpensive and harmless treatment for a multitude of illnesses,

              A kind of panacea for many illnesses. As a pharmacist I have seen, heard and read about a few of them in the past 40 years. If a possible panacea already exists for a multitude of illnesses, why there are no double-blind studies done with a few thousand patients to prove it is true ? Could the pharmaceutical industries prevent that (though I know they would try it) ? Would nobody be interested to donate a few million to make such study with a cheap medicine possible ? Certainly someone like Bill Gates, who donates many millions for research to try to eradicate malaria, would do that. Could it be possible he never heard about such a cheap panacea, would nobody have told him about it ?
              Wouldn’t there be millions of volunteers eager to participate ? The possible side effects of vitamin C wouldn’t chase them away.
              You mention individual cases, though I didn’t read the websites you quote yet.
              With my experience in the field of healthcare and medicines I must conclude that the statements are suspect. Not that I doubt the ones cured, but individual cases are not enough to prove effectivity.

              The book “The science of vitamin C” could be an interesting read, but I doubt it will take away my scepticism

            10. Han, if you think about it, if the understanding I have of how vitamin C works were to become widespread, it would be cataclysmic for the pharmaceutical industries. There are tons of over the counter “medicines” that would cease to sell. Antibiotics use could be reduced and any antibiotics that are prescribed would be much more effective.

              Much of the work of Cathcart was based on earlier work by one Dr. Frederick R. Klenner, M.D. Klenner is the basis for the article on the stonewalling of vitamin C, following his use of vitamin C to treat children displaying symptoms of the onset of polio during a polio outbreak in 1948. Klenner actually wrote a” Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C”.

              The key point in this is to understand that the human body can absorb huge amounts of vitamin C during events where it is needed, like wound healing or fighting a viral infection. Both Klenner and Cathcart documented this and Stones book hints as why this might be the case.

              It could be that in the many cases where I have used it personally, it’s just mind over matter (the placebo effect). In that case maybe I ought to start a crusade that the power of the mind can work miracles. That would put me right up there with “Faith Healers” and I absolutely don’t believe in that crap. The attempts to explain the scientific basis for vitamin C megadoses satisfy me in the same way that the scientific expanations of global warming do. In both cases I believe the science is sound.

              Of course there are tons of articles that attempt to discredit Klenner (e.g. High dose vitamin C can cure Ebola virus disease? Not so fast…) Among other things they point out an absence of a control group in Klenners work with polio. This brings us to ethics of double blind drug testing. When the stakes are life and death or being stricken with the effects of polio, how ethical is it to give the patient a placebo?

              Of course, no one is obliged to believe anything I have written but, my personal experience has led me to believe vitamin C works as described in the literature I have read.

            11. ” my personal experience has led me to believe”

              With medicine, and nutritional ‘cures’, people expect to have double-blind, multi-center, peer-reviewed studies with placebo to prove efficacy.
              No just a few cases and belief.
              I wish it was a ‘miracle’.

            12. Islandboy wrote:

              if you think about it, if the understanding I have of how vitamin C works were to become widespread, it would be cataclysmic for the pharmaceutical industries. There are tons of over the counter “medicines” that would cease to sell. Antibiotics use could be reduced and any antibiotics that are prescribed would be much more effective.

              Over the counter medicines are mostly for common cold, flu, cough and sore throat. Antibiotics are also used most of the times max one week.
              The pharmaceutical industries make by far the most money with medicines for hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol and chronic pain.
              Even if massive doses of vitamine C would ameliorate chronic illnesses, you would have to take it a few years or lifelong (f.e. diabetes type 2 can disappear with exercise and losing weight), because vitamin C won’t cure those illnesses. Vitamin C therapy wouldn’t be cataclysmic for the big pharmaceutical companies because
              taking chronically mega doses of vitamin C would be very impractical.

              Placebo effect can play a role indeed, though with infections that is less likely.

              To ‘overload’ the body with a vitamin isn’t natural and not very subtle. Many animals
              are able to synthesize vitamin C, as already pointed out by Linus Pauling. That’s why he went for taking 3 gram a day instead of the generally recommended amount of 60-90mg/day.
              200 gram per day is a tremendous overload, and for me it is difficult to understand why that would be beneficial in some cases. I guess I have to read the book for trying to understand that.

          2. Hi Doug,

            I don’t have a bug out bag, as such.

            I have the farm, which is a very modest one, an extremely modest one, as farms go, and by luck it’s in what I hope turns out to be an excellent location in the event of Apocalypse with a capital A.

            I don’t think running away is nearly as desirable an option as staying put if you have what I have, when there’s no major city nearby. I’m near enough to a small city to buy almost anything I might want the same day, but I’m still in the boonies, as far as roving bands of people ready to kill in order to live are concerned. I hope.

            And I’m no more worried about TEOWACKI as such, considering my age, than I am about getting cancer because I visit with somebody that smokes or than I’m worried about getting killed or crippled in an automobile accident.

            Here’s what I would do, in the event the shit hits the fan hard, if I’m still able to ACT.

            I would break into a dental office, or hire one of the many rednecks I know, to break in for me and haul off every thing possible, especially the hand tools and drugs. Compressed air is easy,grab some drills, but an x ray machine would be useless, due to a lack of film.

            Cops won’t be much of a problem in such circumstances. It’s going to be everybody for himself, to the nth degree.

            Give me a day or two’s notice, and if I’m suspicious, to the point I think the odds of TSHTF are at least one in twenty within a week, and I will be at the local farm supply and loading up a few trips with everything non perishable I might want, ditto a DOLLAR STORE type place, loading up on everything from toilet paper to tooth paste, etc.

            I can always use such stuff if I live long enough, and ya know what?

            The prices of such goods are typically going up faster than you can earn interest in a savings account at a bank these days, lol.

            I can sell some of it, and trade some of it for labor, if TS ( does not) HTF. There’s not much downside risk at all, for me.

            A big old masonry barn with a metal roof will be a priceless asset in such a situation……. so long as you’re a redneck hillbilly willing to shoot first to guard it, lol. I ‘ve got such a barn….. with a full basement, built back when we were young, to store the crops, which would serve well as a fallout shelter.

            I’m not making TEOWACKI plans as such. I’m just doing things that take TEOWACKI into account, sort of like a man who sets aside a few precious metal coins at bullion value. Things that are the equivalent of buckling the seat belts. I have use for a generator and a backup generator ANYWAY, and I can buy diesel fuel cheaper five hundred gallons at a time than I can in smaller quantities, and it KEEPS.

            If I survive, IF TSHTF within the years I have remaining, my hope is that some one or another of the people I know will have at least EMT and RN level skills.

            I probably shouldn’t mention this in such a forum as this one, but if I EVER run across some old lady who still has poppies in her garden from her great grandmother’s time , or farther back, they’re likely to be POTENT poppies, and I’ll get some seed from her even if I have to sneak back and steal a few ripe poppies, lol.

            Something is going to get us all. Bad teeth are a very painful way to go, one of the worst, because the pain can last for many years without killing you.

            I know how to make moonshine, and any kid can learn how to grow pot in an hour on the net, and whatever else can be made to grow that might relieve pain is of great interest to me.

            When I step outside myself, playing the role of outside observer, seeing my behaviors in as objective a sense as possible, I find it very amusing that I’m acting like a foolish old man trying to attract a young woman with his wealth, lol.

            I’m building a nest, on the grand scale, like some male birds do , in hopes of attracting a female that will never show up.

            BUT this same behavior worked, at least in part for me, once upon a time, way back when. My Big Apple girl never thought she would want to live on a farm until the reality hit her……. I can have a personal pleasure horse of my very own…… etc. You have to be RICH to have a horse of your own in a place like NYC….. and even then, you have to GO TO THE HORSE, which is a pain in the ass, because it’s an hour or farther away at some sort of boarding farm.

            A place the size of our old house in NYC with a view comparable to the one out the window behind me costs at least ten million bucks. That buys you AIR RIGHTS, lol. You own whatever is within the space specified on the deed, but not the actual ground under the bottom floor.

            But it’s also well known that some men and some women are willing to donate their time and energy to furthering the welfare of strangers, and doing this is generally considered to be evidence that you’re a WORTHY person.

            If you can do it on a large enough scale, you might even be mentioned in the same breath as people such as Mother Teresa, Rachel Carson, or Jonas Salk, lol.

            I would rather be doing what I am doing than anything else I CAN do, given my limited resources.

            I guess it’s foolish of me, but I can see some kid’s mother or father showing him a stone marker, saying this is where Old Mac is buried. He’s the guy that built the pond where we fish and swim and he built the berm around our rice paddy, lol. And he put in the fruit and nut trees, because he knew that a little kid like you would be fishing and swimming in the pond, and eating the rice we grow in the paddy, and the nuts from the trees, and the idea PLEASED him.

            You might as well please yourself, because you sure as hell are wasting your time trying to please other people…… unless the OTHER person happens to be willing to mate with you, and help you pass along your genes.

            It NEVER ceases to amaze me that there are people who know far more biology than I do who nevertheless don’t seem to be able to face up to the indisputable fact that the world is a Darwinian place, always has been, and for dead fucking sure always will be….. until the expanding sun wipes out the last living microbes, the ones that live hundreds and thousands of meters below the surface. Inside ROCKS.

            1. OFM. Why try to survive in a mudflat that is drying out?
              Why not just go into permanent hibernation mode, at a time of your own choosing?
              btw- I applaud the good work on your property.

            2. My husband and I have been farming here together in the Northeast for close to thirty-five years now, and there’s very little that we don’t know how to do, between the two of us.

              And what has all this taught me?

              When collapse comes, we’re all shit out of luck.

        1. “Nobody in 1963 would imagine that the USA of the 2000s would be the USA of finance, of Wall Street; of football players, of the anti-vaxxers, of the flat earthers and of the Kardashians.”

    2. The EIA released the September data for their Electric Power Monthly last Tuesday so I’ve been busy putting the report together. It’s essentially complete so I have a little more time to address your needling. 😉

      All the stuff you’ve been posting highlights the reason that much, much more of the stuff I’ve been posting needs to happen. See:

      Clean energy must be rolled out six times faster

      The Emissions Gap Report published today by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) described the roll-out of renewable energy technology as an “easy win” in the battle to mitigate global heating but warned clean energy deployment needs to happen six times faster. Otherwise, stated the report, the world will have no hope of keeping temperatures less than 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than in pre-industrial times.

      Bold mine.

      On the other hand, back in the tropics BAU is rolling on unimpeded. The major road improvement works in sections of Kingston, Jamaica are nearing completion, ready to be clogged up by the onslaught of new, second hand Japanese Domestic Market imports as well as the new cars from the various manufacturer’s franchised dealers.

      As with other places around the world, Jamaican merchants have been unable to resist the temptation of using “Black Friday” to extract more dollars from the buying public and the buying public came out in force to gobble up “the bargains”.

      I took about fifteen jumbo size garbage bags full of soft drink/water bottles to a recycling depot earlier this week and depending on the price that is paid, I might get back the price of the pack and a half of garbage bags that I used needless to say the effort of saving them up to make sure they are recycled and the cost of the fuel I used to take them to the depot. In the mean time the manufacturers and distributors of the contents of said bottles continue to reap handsome profits. What message is being sent?

      While you might think that I am not aware of the stuff you post, I choose to focus instead on things that might contribute to mitigation however futile they may seem now. It’s the other 7 plus billion of the folks on the plant that either don’t know and/or worse, don’t want to know that concern me. Contrary to what you think, you might just be preaching to the converted. I’d say 99.99999% of the population of this here planet don’t give a hoot about most of the stuff we discuss around here.

      1. Needling? The gall; the cheek! Is introducing a few facts into a discussion needling? ? For example, is my concern for other species a sin? Because, in the mid-17th century, yesterday so to speak, there were one-half billion humans on our planet. By the mid-1920s, world population quadrupled to 2 billion. Before century’s end, it would triple again to 6 billion. Though the rate of growth has slowed, by late 2011/early 2012, we will have passed the 7 billion mark, and continue to increase by over 80 million a year. The UN currently predicts 10 billion people by 2100. Do you really think a few EVs and roof top solar panels are going to make our blue dot fit for life in all its glory?

        1. Ah yes…. That exponential growth of the human population in a finite space problem. Sticky one that. Like I said in my comment above, not many of the 7.7 billion plus folks on the planet have the population issue on their radar. Any falling birth rates that we are seeing have very little to do with conscious thought about the stresses that the human population is putting on other species.

        2. According to the EPA, transportation accounts for about 30% of US carbon dioxide emissions.

          https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

          So if EVs could cu that by half it would mean something, yes. A lot of transportation in America is pointless commuting. Relaxing America’s bizarre zoning laws would help as much or more.

          Commercial and residential account for an extra 12%. This could be virtually eliminated with better building design. Looser zoning laws allowing cities to build up instead of out would greatly help.

          There is no magic button we can push to solve the problem. That does not mean there is no solution.

          As Jared Diamond points out in “Collapse”, some societies choose to die, and some live on by adapting to new realities. The vibe I get from this quorum is that old men have a hard time imagining a world that isn’t like a “Leave it to Beaver” rerun. We do have a choice, probably.

          I can imagine we won’t make the right choice. But the technical arguments I hear here that claim it’s impossible all seem like crap to me.

          “In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”
          ― Friedrich Nietzsche

          1. “I can imagine we won’t make the right choice. But the technical arguments I hear here that claim it’s impossible all seem like crap to me.”

            I agree Ali Q.

            Once the industry gears up, I don’t see how building EV’s is any more difficult than building hydrocarbon explosion engine vehicles, and the amount of PV needed to provide energy for the average driver is, in the broad scheme, pretty trivial, and the potential collective benefits to the grid of being able to use BEV’s for demand side load management and for V2G load levelling services seem substantial.

            If we had to replace 100% of the energy that we currently consume with renewable power, then perhaps that might be impossible, but we don’t have to do that. We only need to replace the 30% of currently used energy that actually does useful work. No need to ‘reject’ energy in the form of heat.

            As G.F. has frequently noted here, we know how to build buildings that don’t require massive energy inputs to operate. We know how to build net-zero and even energy production positive buildings. They are cost effective in T.C.O. Why do we persist with the old kind?

            I also agree with Nick that at this point in time transitioning to clean energy systems would save us money.

            But I also agree with Ron that we are in deep population overshoot, and that we will continue to eat and destroy the natural world until the ecology collapses. One can turn to cheery optimists like Steven Pinker for comforting statistics on how human life is getting better, but he conveniently ignores what is happening in the natural world with species decline and extinction. Life is choking to death on our plastic waste and we’ve only just begun to acknowledge the problem. What our the chances we will stop using plastic? I recently read a report that one of the identified factors behind the terrifying decline in insect populations is light pollution. Are humans going to willingly shut off our lights for the love of bugs?

            What a tragic species we are; art, science, literature, engineering, gastronomy, so much about human life is staggeringly amazing (speaking as a human), yet we’ve just experienced the richest century in history, and our streets are littered with homeless addicts and the mentally ill. How much money each year do we spend on arms?

            We are animals, and we act according to our nature.

            1. I will add a +1 to that.

              I am concerned that once the arctic sea ice melts out, our ecological problems will greatly accelerate as weather patterns become unpredictable and people really start to freak out. This could happen as soon as 2030 according to the current trend.

            2. As a whole, humans are resourceful and clever, so I don’t see any need to worry that much. Worst comes to worst, our children will just have to come up with some new technology to power through any problems.

            3. When accelerating species extinction brings on the cascading collapse of ecological systems, with them go the ‘eco-services’ that we currently get for free, such as pollination, seed dispersal, fertilization distribution (for example the distribution of nutrients from spawning salmon into the forests). We’re going to resolve that with new technology?

              It’s such a homo-centric perspective; generally we don’t assign any value to the beingness of any beings but ourselves. It’s worthwhile to mention though, that this hasn’t been true of all human cultures, but it seems to be true of ours.

              It is the worst kind of hubris to think that we can persist as a species after we’ve destroyed our ecological context. What poverty it would be were it even possible.

            4. Hi Hickory,

              Fifty years ago was lucky enough to have a friend who was very well versed in the sciences, and in philosophy.

              We never could come to any conclusion about WHY we are here, or WHY life exists, or IF anything has any sort of cosmic or sacred purpose.

              I still believe that the only good reason there is to believe in any sort of cosmic plan, any sort of god, etc, is that because you WANT to believe in the same.

              I understand that we are programmed to want to do the RIGHT THING, according to our programming, and I want to look after little kids, even if they AREN’T my own. They still share my genes to a very substantial extent, lol, even if they are members of a different subspecies or variety of humanity who won’t be born yet for another century.
              ( I take it we aren’t supposed to believe in or mention race any more,for being deemed insensitive at best, but to a dumbass liberal minded hillbilly like me, that’s as absurd as not believing in breeds of dogs, or different colored cows, or different varieties of apples, lol. )

              So anyway bottom line we concluded that we would live as long as we could, so long as we’re feeling ok and still having a good time.

              Watching what’s happening the world today, from the wind stripping the last of the leaves off the trees around the house to keeping up with the news in the sciences amuses me.

              And so long as you are having a good time…….. why leave the party, if you don’t have any particular place to go?

            5. “And so long as you are having a good time…….. why leave the party, if you don’t have any particular place to go?”

              I often wonder the same.
              What gives me great pause, is the destruction (or replacement of) of the natural world that my mere existence causes.
              Is there any justification for the creation of metal from rock, the extinction of any species, the despoiling of even the tiniest stream, the intentional combustion of even a single stick of wood. Or the paying of even a dollar of tax, that you know clear well may go to manufacture and deployment of a weapon which will kill a mother in some far away land as she nurses her baby?
              How is any of that wise or kind.
              And if not wise and kind, we certainly have no good purpose here.

            6. “I often wonder the same”.

              I’m with you all the way……… but

              I’m compelled to believe you and I feel the way we do about such things BECAUSE it’s part of the programming.

              There are degrees of built in programming. This particular portion is strong in people like you.

              I’ve met people who could not care less about anybody outside their own immediate circle, and they’re ready to throw insiders, even their own family members, to the wolves if it suits their purposes.

            7. “I’ve met people who could not care less about anybody outside their own immediate circle”
              Yes, this character type is deeply embedded in us all. And this character type is celebrated widely- [ex. current President of the USA].
              The trajectory of humankind has been strongly influence by this, and other character types, that have resulted in tens of millions of instances of severe cruelty, and environmental destruction.
              To hold your breathe waiting for the ‘good’ human to emerge, is to suffocate.

            8. I’ve mentioned Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed” a few times. The title says it all.

              I think we do have a choice. Instead of despairing, we should be working hard to hit the brakes before we hit the wall.

              https://youtu.be/KYegWOTFqGI?t=417

            9. “we should be working hard to hit the brakes before we hit the wall.”

              I’d like to know what you have in mind on this. It is the most important conversation the world could have.
              Are you thinking of randomized vasectomies for 50% of males globally when they reach 15 yrs old, or what?
              [I hope I’m joking about this example]

            10. Sorry but that title is pure bullshit. Societies do not choose to fail. Societies are just huge populations of people. People do not collectively choose to fail.

              But as to your suggestion that we should be working hard to hit the brakes. Just who are you talking to? The world is 7.7 billion people. Tell them they should hit the brakes. Please get back to me with their answers.

            11. Public choice is a tricky concept.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice

              The thing choosing cannot be seen as rational, or having self interest.

              Here’s an interesting voting “paradox”. When we say we want A more than B and B more than C, we mean we want A more than C. That is called transitivity, and it is basic to rational choice. I like coffee more than tea and tea more than hot water. It follows that I like coffee more than hot water.

              But voting doesn’t necessarily work that way. Let’s say there are three equally sized classes of voters, poor, middle and rich. There is a windfall to be distributed. The left wing candidate want to give 60% to the poor, and 40% to the middle class. The right wing candidate wants to give 60% to the middle and 40% to the rich. The radical candidate wants to give 60% to the rich and 40% to the poor.

              If the left candidate runs against the right candidate, the right will win the middle and rich vote, enough to win. If the right runs against the radical, the radical will win the rich and the poor vote, enough to win. If the radical candidate runs against the left candidate, the left will win the poor and middle vote, enough to win.

              So the will of the people is to prefer the left over radical, radical over right, and right over left, like rock paper scissors. That violates rational transitivity. So groups of people cannot be said to be rational.

              To answer your second question, I am talking to everyone when when I say we need to hit the brakes. The more people who listen the better. I also suspect that societies who hit the brakes will outlive those who do not.

          2. There’s a classic book titled something along the lines of “Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.

            I read it many years ago.

            EVERYBODY should read it.

            And everybody should read Eric Hoffer’s “The True Believer”.

            If you don’t clearly understand WHY all the shit that’s happening, IS happening, these two books are priceless resources.

            2. Is it really necessary to read (those) two books to understand that ?

            3. Well, most people don’t really understand why a crowd’s collective mentality is so far below, and so more dangerous, than almost any lone individual’s understanding of any situation. “Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” does that so thoroughly.

              “The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements” is a different kind of book. It often refers to crowds but is primarily about mass movements. I have a collection of what I call “Freethought Quotations”. They run about 90 pages. I have twenty-something quotes from Eric Hoffer’s “True Believer”. A couple of them are below.

              Mass movements can rise and spread without belief in a god, but never without belief in a devil.
              Eric Hoffer: The True Believer

              From Martin Luther:
              So tenaciously should we cling to the world revealed by the Gospel, that were I to see all the Angels of Heaven coming down to me to tell me something different, not only would I not be tempted to doubt a single syllable, but I would shut my eyes and stop my ears, for they would not deserve to be either seen or heard.
              Martin Luther:
              Table Talk, Number 1687.

              To which Eric Hoffer replied:

              It is the true believer’s ability to “shut his eyes and stop his ears” to the facts that do not deserve to be either seen or heard which is the source of his unequaled fortitude and constancy. He cannot be frightened by danger nor disheartened by obstacle nor baffled by contradictions because he denies their existence.

              Eric Hoffer: The True Believer.

              Of course one does not have to read either of these books to understand the madness of crowds or the nature of mass movements. It’s just that they would understand both a lot better if they did.

  4. “Come on people”

    I’ve been mostly a lurker on POB but I have to speak up now. I enjoy the insightful comments of people and the wide range of viewpoints. But, lately, differences of opinion seem to lead to angry words and sarcasm rather than calm discussion.

    Perhaps it’s from a growing awareness that it’s not just peak oil; it’s climate, extinction, pollution, economics, war, and most of all population overshoot. The feeling of helplessness in the face of the oncoming collapse breeds anger and we take out that anger on those around us. Calm down, let’s enjoy the time we have together.

    1. James, I agree. Everyone has a solution. They are talking to 7.7 billion people, or somewhere around that number. And guess what? They ain’t listening! The world is going to hell in a handbasket. And there just ain’t one goddamn thing you or anyone else can do about it. We are all just following our nature. That is to look out for our own ass and let everyone else look out for theirs.

      Of course, it will all lead to collapse. Human misery will be unbelievable. But I am among the very lucky few. I will be safely dead when the shit hits the fan. Lucky me! But I feel for my children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. But…. I just try not to think about that. I cannot change it or affect it in any way. So, I just try to live life one day at a time and enjoy what time I have left.

        1. That is not the other side of the coin. That is the same side of the coin that I am on. And no, just like the guy in the video I am not preparing for it.

        2. He is interesting. Thanks GF.

          At the end he said- ‘my job is pre-collapse’.
          That resonates with me.
          I have no interest in trying to survive a post-collapse scenario-
          Prevention of colon cancer beats a colostomy every single time.
          I’m preparing myself to say ‘no thank you’.

      2. Everyone has a solution. They are talking to 7.7 billion people, or somewhere around that number. And guess what? They ain’t listening! The world is going to hell in a handbasket. And there just ain’t one goddamn thing you or anyone else can do about it.

        Ron, that’s right. And even if a lot would listen the world runs into (other) problems. First of all, the world population would decline, rather rapidly. Result: contracting world economy. How debts are going to be paid back in that scenario ? However, some government debts will never go away anyway.
        Secondly: stopping immediately the production of all ICE cars would result in chaos and bankruptcies. Or: diminishing the production of ICE cars by about 10% a year would result in less chaos and a few other serious problems, probably also bankruptcies.
        Instead of this two impossible measures to take, the plans for producing more oil and gas continue like crazy. Because it’s there to get, it’s the best, most easy or only way to fuel economic growth and because it makes money. Human nature indeed.
        What if 50% or more of electricity production worldwide is done by renewable energy ? It wouldn’t take away many of the problems caused by population overshoot.
        What if soon one of the wild ideas, planting a thousand billion trees worldwide, is realised ?

    2. …, lately, differences of opinion seem to lead to angry words and sarcasm rather than calm discussion.

      James, exactly my observation also. That is, sometimes that happens.

  6. STUDY UNDERPINS KEY IDEA IN ANTARCTIC ICE LOSS

    “It’s long been suspected but scientists can now show conclusively that thinning in the ring of floating ice around Antarctica is driving mass loss from the interior of the continent. The new study finds that the diminishing thickness of ice shelves is matched almost exactly by an acceleration in the glaciers feeding in behind them. What’s more, the linkage is immediate. It means we can’t rely on a lag in the system to delay the rise in sea-levels as shelves melt in a warmer world. The glaciers will speed up in tandem, dumping their mass in the ocean.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50625396

    https://phys.org/news/2019-12-evidence-antarctica-thinning-ice-shelves.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      NINE CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS NOW ‘ACTIVE’

      Exiting the fossil fuel economy is unlikely before 2050, but with temperature already at 1.1°C above pre-industrial temperature, it is likely Earth will cross the 1.5°C guardrail by 2040. The authors conclude this alone defines an emergency.

      Nine active tipping points:
      1. Arctic sea ice
      2. Greenland ice sheet
      3. Boreal forests
      4. Permafrost
      5. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
      6. Amazon rainforest
      7. Warm-water corals
      8. West Antarctic Ice Sheet
      9. Parts of East Antarctica

      https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-11/uoe-nct112519.php

      1. AGW denialists are flipping out over this tipping point study, claiming they don’t believe that tipping points exist. Just thinking that an obvious tipping point is the event that starts a massive forest fire.

        Here is some insight into their outrage:

        “It’s informative to observe the ferocity and absurdity with which the trolls attack a reasonable discussion of tipping points. I think the energy that these folks bring to confront a reasonable discussion of tipping points is a great example of how the right works to frame the debate and/or limit the discussion area to a range that automatically excludes certain topics and outcomes.

        The relentless attack on the reasonable and rational discussion on the dangers of the climate emergency shows up in the way that the middle ground is constantly pulled to the right and influences reasonable and rational players to frame their concerns in the “middle ground” where folks like Rahmstorf, Oreskes, Stern et al are framed as radical in their presentation/position rather than as simply the most alarmed and alarming voices within a range of reasonable responses to our situation. I am convinced that the concerns of folks like Rahmstorf, Oreskes, Stern et al are quite reasonable, even though they are quite troubling to consider. “

      2. I’m glad we have 4K and 8K UHD HDR cameras these days because it means we can preserve gorgeous video and imagery of all the nature stuff we have now in order for us to still enjoy it all after it goes bye bye.

  7. islandboy, a tidbit just for you ?

    Daily CO2 — Dec. 1, 2019: 410.92 ppm, Dec. 1, 2018: 408.17 ppm

    NB: CO2 concentrations reach a peak in May as the Northern Hemisphere spring greenup begins, and decline to a minimum in October.

    1. Within a geological perspective, ~410 ppm CO2 is among the lowest it has ever been, and that includes going back in time to long before human beings were around.

      2. Not true. The earliest fossils of anatomically modern humans are from the Middle Paleolithic, about 200,000 years ago. The last time levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were this high came during the Pliocene Epoch, which extended from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million years ago. For hundreds of millennia, the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere underwent slow fluctuations, which largely mirrored gradual cycles in the earth’s orbit and varying levels of planetary ice coverage. However, levels of CO2 have remained below 300 ppm for more than 400,000 years. BTW: The global average temperature in the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3 mya) was 2–3 °C higher than today, carbon dioxide levels were roughly the same as today, and global sea level was 25 m higher.

        1. Estimable DougL,

          300 000, rather, at Jebel Irhoud in Morocco.

          (shambles away muttering)

          Ahem: Time for Port

          1. Synapsid —

            I stand corrected. It comes with writing off the top of my head, which, of course, is no excuse at all; 300,000 at Jebel Irhoud, got it. Thanks for your learned input.

            I remain, your humbled servant, (slinks away muttering)

  8. Lots of talk here about preparation for a time of unrest.
    Most people will fail in the attempt to predict how hard or from which direction chaos may arrive.
    And thus their preparations will be for the wrong threat.
    In most scenarios, a bunker is a ridiculous place to spend your life.
    And gold bars in a vault will still be there when you die.
    Sometimes the most important thing to develop is good personal skills, and good social web.

    1. 7.7 billion humans in a massive overshoot, ecological collapse, mass extinction——
      Survival as a species is quite questionable.
      But, how about an EV?

      1. Survival as a species is quite questionable.

        Well no, it is not. Humans are the most adaptable species on earth. Well, perhaps rats, mice, cockroaches, and several other insect species are as adaptable. But we are far and away the most adaptable of any species larger than a rabbit.

        During periods of intense global warming in the distant past, dinosaurs survived. They lived in the high arctic when palm trees grew there. There will be enough humans that adapt to global warming that the species will survive.

        Don’t get me wrong, it will get nasty, very nasty. But of the 8 billion people that will likely be alive when the shit hits the fan, if only one in a thousand survive, that would leave 8 million people alive.

        1. Ron-
          I’m not convinced.
          Of all species that have existed on Earth, 99.9 percent are now extinct.
          (Extinction rates are comparable to those of the great past extinctions.)

          1. Hightrekker, you are more than mistaken here. Of all the species that have gone extinct, why did they go extinct? All the great extinctions of the past were caused by natural disasters. A meteorite crashing into the earth… Or massive volcanism as in the Siberian volcanism. These and the other major extinctions were caused by natural disasters. If that happens again, then of course, many species will go extinct. But that, quite obviously, is not the type of extinction you are talking about.

            You believe that because 99.9 of species that have ever lived went extinct, then obviously humans will go extinct also. That is very poor logic because you did not say why humans would go extinct.

            Yes, there is constant background extinction between natural disasters but species do not just go extinct, they are driven to extinction because they are outcompeted for food and territory by other species. What species are going to outcompete the human species for food and territory?

            Neither rats or mice are in danger of being outcompeted for food or territory by another species. Ditto for human beings.

            Hightrekker, if you really believe humans will go extinct, within the next several thousand years. then you are obliged to explain what will drive them to extinction. Which species will out-compete us? Otherwise, you are just quoting stats, not odds. 99.9% is a stat and has nothing to do with the actual odds that humans are about to go extinct.

            Homo sapiens are the most adaptable large animal on earth. They are in absolutely no danger of being driven into extinction by any other species. They occupy every available large continent and island on earth except Antarctica. If you believe they will be driven to extinction on every possible niche on earth then you are obliged to explain just which species, or what else will drive every human group on every occupiable niche on earth into extinction.

            1. The future will tell——-
              We are in a mass extinction (the 6th), and this hasn’t happened for 65 million years.
              I would look closer– we are not that smart of a species (just look at our current population).
              But we shall see (maybe not you and I)

            2. Ron,

              On geological timescales species go extinct, because in nature, extinction is the rule, survival is the exception.

              Even if humans survive population overshoot, climate change, energy depletion etc, given long enough periods speciation will occur and the new species offshoot, lets call it homo futurus will out compete, hunt or just massacre homosapiens into extinction.
              Like what we did to the neanderthals or homo erectus etc.

            3. Mike, no species has ever gone extinct that occupied every continent on earth as well as every major island on earth. The Neanderthals were isolated to a small area of Europe. They were outcompeted for food and territory by Homo sapiens.

              Yes, perhaps 50 to 100 thousand years from now, on some continent, some species might shoot off from Homo sapiens and out-compete us. But that is doubtful because we are too widespread and too adaptable.

              Yes, survival is the exception, but not when that species is as widespread as rats, mice, and human beings. Such an extinction has never happened in the history of the world.

              It is my firm conviction that people who talk about human extinction really don’t understand what causes a species to go extinct.

              Also:

              On geological timescales species go extinct, because in nature, extinction is the rule, survival is the exception.

              That “because” is an error. A rule is not a reason. All species do not go extinct. There has to be a reason a species goes extinct. They must be out-competed for food and territory by a competing species. We have species alive today that have been around for hundreds of millions of years. If a species is widespread enough, or adaptable enough, they do not go extinct. That is the rule.

            4. Ron,

              Yes, definitely agree that our species is definitely wholly widespread and extremely adaptable. Though i question whether we still possess those traits after living through a few generations of relatively sheltered existences thanks mostly to the industrial revolution.
              And the current gene pool quality of homosapiens is questionable too.

              As most of us here know, it’s extremely hard to make predictions. But lets assume for a second that an event or maybe even a series of events causes industrial civilization as we know it to collapse. In my humble opinion, a mass die off is highly likely in this scenario. Without antibiotics, a lot of people will simply die from infected grazes and cuts. Let alone starvation and suicides.

              In short, we have forgotten how harsh nature and natural selection is. I don’t see many people coping with going back to being hunter and gatherers if such a thing as going back is even possible.

              Basically what i am trying to say is, so many things can change in a short period of time. I see industrial civilization on an edge of a precipice. If it was to fall. Chaos will prevail in an extremely short time. Such an event can eventuate into extinction for homosapiens. (but extremely beneficial to a whole host of other species). Again these are all hypotheticals.

              Regarding your last paragraph, those species are not the same as they were 100s of millions of years ago. They come from one evolved family but if the original species were alive, the current ones wouldn’t be able to reproduce with it. For example crocodiles they have been around for 80 million years or so, if i hypothetically were to bring an 80 million year old croc back to now, it would not be able to produce offspring with modern crocodiles. I am not 100% sure about this but quite confident.
              Hopefully someone with a biology background can give insights.

              But regardless, yes such species are part of the 0.1% and are exceptional at resonating with their respective environments.

            5. Something like 99.9% (or much more) of all species to have ever lived have gone extinct. Even in the ocean which you think may have more stable conditions than on land, it is so.
              Aside from the great cataclysmic events like massive volcanism or big meteor impact, there are slower changes that take species down. Changes in the chemistry they require, or changes in the habitat, for example.
              New fatal infectious agents arise.
              You may say, well humans can innovate to get around these limitations.
              Yes, to a remarkable degree.
              And someday those innovations will no longer be enough.
              It may be a very long time from now.
              In the meantime, we are in the midst of the early states of a global mass extinction event, of our own making.
              To think that we are immune from the negative effects of severe environmental degradation is wrong. I don’t at all think that is what Ron is saying here.
              Here is an extinction pathway for humans- a lethal viral infection carried by rats arises….

            6. I’ve put a lot of time into study of the extinction question, and in the end I must come down with Ron.

              The very fact that we are so widely distributed now makes it unlikely in the extreme that any one disease, predator, climate change, etc will ever put an end to us.

              We ARE almost infinitely adaptable, and I don’t see any reason to believe anything short of a major asteroid collision or the atmosphere turning anoxic will wipe ALL of us out.

              Something WILL get us, absolutely, sometime.

              But we’re the future, as of now, in terms of larger life forms, because we crossed over into new territory when we mastered fire, speech, and tools.

              We’ve made more progress in arming ourselves in the past few thousand years than Mother Nature made in the past hundred million in arming lions and venomous snakes.

              We’ve evolved to be able to eat a more varied diet than any other large animal on the planet, since we mastered fire.

              We can live under more varied circumstances than any other large animal on the planet.

              And we have learned how to protect ourselves from invisible little demons that make us sick and kill us. We don’t HAVE to be able to kill the little demons. All we HAVE to do is to separate ourselves from them, via quarantine, and if we make it thru the first hundred years after collapse, there will be isolated populations of people in many places.

              And infectious diseases thought to be invariably fatal generally prove not to be so……. eventually somebody displays heritable resistance, in just about every case. Furthermore a microbe that kills its host every time eventually runs short of hosts, and starts evolving towards being less lethal………

              But then I remember that if something CAN happen, given trials enough and time enough, it will happen.

              It doesn’t even matter,except as an academic question.

              Arguing about it is like arguing about dying in a battle on land later on while you’re on a troop ship at sea, and the enemy is firing torpedo’s at you and dropping bombs on you.

              Sufficient unto the day are the problems thereof, lol.

      2. Food for thought on species-
        Each person can successfully mate with the preceding generation, thus we are the same species. However if you keep going backwards in that chain, eventually you would arrive at a incompatible mating pair, that is- a current human could not mate successfully with an ancestor. They are different species. This happens very gradually. For humans, it would be probably somewhere in the range of 10,000 generations.

        If you go back roughly 250,000 generations, you arrive at an individual who was the common ancestor of all Homo (human), and all Pan (chimpa..). In the intervening time there have likely been atleast 10 (minimum), and perhaps twice that many species, all of which are extinct.

        The ‘in progress’ divergence between Chimpanzee and Bonobo (both the only surviving members of the Pan line) is very interesting to read about. They are separated geographically by the Congo River.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonobo

        1. Thanks for the link Hickory. My point was if homosapiens were to survive for extended long periods, speciation will eventually drive them to extinction. I’ll make a lame example:
          Windows 95 is essentially extinct compared to windows 10. But they both originated from the common corporation of microsoft. Very loose example but people should get the drift lol

          1. I agree. Homo sapien may become Homo subsapien (breeds underground) for example.
            I don’t have a strong vision on where this is all heading, other than that a big downsizing is highly likely as an painful early step of the post fossil era.
            Lets keep in mind that for many individuals and tribes, these past millennia have been extremely painful, already.

  9. Seriously, this is a (pretty) cool National Academy of Sciences paper!

    DRONE IMAGES SHOW GREENLAND ICE SHEET BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS IT FRACTURES

    “The findings show that fast-flowing glaciers in Greenland are subject to significant forcing by surface meltwater. They also show that changes in ice flow occur on much shorter timescales than considered possible so far…

    The difference between snow accumulation and loss of ice in Greenland ice sheet currently amounts to one billion tonnes of ice being lost every day. This net loss of ice is growing, making the Greenland Ice Sheet the single largest contributor to global sea-level rise.”

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/uoc-dis112719.php

    1. It’s so cool that we can watch the collapse from the safety of our homes.

  10. islandboy, some grist for your mill. ?

    CHINA PLANS NEW COAL PLANTS, TRIMS SUPPORT FOR CLEAN ENERGY

    “As China’s economy slows to the lowest level in a quarter century—around 6% growth, according to government statistics—policymakers are doubling down on support for coal and other heavy industries, the traditional backbones of China’s energy system and economy. At the same time, the country is reducing subsidies for renewable energy.

    Recent media reports and satellite images suggest that China is building or planning to complete new coal power plants with total capacity of 148 gigawatts—nearly equal to the entire coal-power capacity of the European Union within the next few years, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based non-profit. Separately, investment in China’s renewable energy dropped almost 40 percent in the first half of 2019 compared with the same period last year.”

    https://phys.org/news/2019-12-china-coal-trims-energy.html

    1. Meanwhile, in the country that will be the source of the coal in these plants, if they ever get up to speed, retail consumers continue to adopt solar PV at a record pace:

      NSW installs record 60MW of rooftop solar in November

      A record total of 60MW of new rooftop solar capacity was installed in New South Wales in November – a new monthly high for any state in Australia, according to the latest market update from industry statistician SunWiz.

      SunWiz says the NSW record, combined with a new high for Queensland – a state record of 56MW installed for the month – helped to counter a dip in installations for South Australia, to keep the national market steady.

      All up, Australian homes and businesses added a total of 206MW of new rooftop PV capacity in November – just shy of October’s record level of 207MW.

      It is not only retail consumers in Australia that are increasingly turning to solar PV:

      Huge influx of solar will reduce risk of power outages this summer, says AEMO

      Australian consumers face the risk of power outages this summer because of the threat of bushfires, heatwaves and increasingly unreliable coal generators, but the Australian Energy Market Operator says the surge in solar installations in the past 12 months will lessen the risks.

      “The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is forecasting both warmer than average and extreme temperatures this summer, and an ongoing and significant risk of bushfires with drier than usual conditions,” AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman says in a statement accompanying its Summer 2019/20 Readiness Plan.

      “These risks add to the deteriorating reliability of some of the older coal generation plants.”

      But Zibelman says that since last summer, AEMO “is pleased to see” 3,700 megawatts (MW) of increased generation in the National Electricity Market, with rooftop and grid-scale solar generation representing approximately 90 per cent of this increase.

      “The introduction of these resources delivers a welcomed improvement to reliability and reduces the need to procure further out of market reserves,” Zibelman said.

      And the key message from AEMO is that rooftop solar is lowering overall grid demand and pushing it into the evening – lessening the risk of supply shortfalls. And large-scale solar is also providing added capacity at peak times.

      I continue to be intrigued by the ongoing saga in Australia where the traditional mainstay of electricity generation is facing increasing competitive pressure from renewables. Sort of backs up Tony Seba’s claims that PV will be the lowest cost source of electricity by a wide margin by the end of the next decade.

      1. Meanwhile, Australia’s oil and gas industry has hit new production records with liquefied natural gas (LNG) output expected to continue rising significantly… And, “The runaway train that is climate change is about to blow past another milestone: global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions will reach yet another record high [this year]. Driven by rising natural gas and oil consumption, levels of CO2 are expected to hit 37 billion tons this year, according to new estimates from the Global Carbon Project.”

        https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/su-gce112019.php

          1. I’m looking for a short story I once wrote ( Full disclosure, the plot has been used countless times since antiquity. I’ve only updated it..)

            I’ll post it later here in this thread.

            The plot’s simple. Well educated modern woman marries powerful politician who opposes sound environmental policies for partinsan reasons. Love triumphs over philosophy.

            Her baby has cancer.

            Her college BFF ( BEST FRIEND FOREVER ) has gone into medical research.

            Previous conversation includes tid bit that friend is super excited about a possible new anti cancer drug, all tests so far positive results.

            Momma’s desperate, and has the connections via husband to get it tried as experimental treatment for baby that is SURE to die anyway.

            BFF friend, heart broken, tells her that the plant that yields the drug has been wiped out, plant extinct, due to large scale burning and conversion of rain forest to farm land.

            I haven’t yet decided if Momma will switch parties, etc, and become an activist, etc.

            xxxx

            The thing about this sort of story is that it’s SURE to reflect real life.

            There are or were, almost for sure, a dozen, two dozen, maybe a hundred or more useful pharmaceutical compounds to be discovered in plants already extinct in Indonesia, etc, that were never tested……. never even NAMED.

            Ditto the Amazon…..

            And Sky Daddy alone knows how many other useful things would have been discovered….. had these places survived more or less intact.

            Maybe genes from web spinners that could be incorporated into yeast or bacteria to manufacture spider web by the kilo.

  12. FASTER RISING SEAS FORECAST IN SOUTH FLORIDA

    “The previous overall estimate for sea level rise affecting the region called for about 2 feet (60 centimeters) higher in 2060 than water levels generally were in 2000. Now, the forecast calls for almost 2.5 feet (73 centimeters) of encroaching water over that time span.”

    https://phys.org/news/2019-12-faster-seas-south-florida.html

    1. Meanwhile,

      Maybe these guys would benefit from some Dutch input?

      HISTORIC US TOWNS ENDURED WARS, STORMS. WHAT ABOUT SEA RISE?

      Historic cities and towns along the Southeastern U.S. coast have survived wars, hurricanes, disease outbreaks and other calamities, but now that sea levels are creeping up with no sign of stopping, they face a more existential crisis.

      https://phys.org/news/2019-12-historic-towns-wars-storms-sea.html

    2. From what I understand, sea-walls don’t work in places such as Miami because the water level rises through the underlying porous limestone, which is already soggy from the Everglades

      1. Paul,

        “From what I understand, sea-walls don’t work in places such as Miami because the water level rises through the underlying porous limestone…”

        Yes, that’s my understanding as well.

        1. Miami, after all the toxins wash away, could possibly be a great dive spot for wreck diving.
          I’m keeping things positive!

    3. EDougL,

      There’s an article today at Oil-Price.org, the ASPO site, about the Florida Keys. The person in charge of sustainability in the Keys said that she’d never imagined they’d say No to the possibility of raising roads high enough to keep them usable, but the results of the study to determine what that would cost are coming in and, well…

      A parallel point is that the bedrock of Florida, the water-soluble state in a hurricane track, is carbonate, highly porous (sinkholes swallow car lots), and mostly not very far above sea level. Sea-water encroachment into aquifers is a problem that will not go away.

      The crucial point, though, is whether the increasing brackishness will serve to inhibit the range expansion of Burmese pythons in the Everglades.

      Time for Port? Why yes, I do believe it is.

          1. Paul Pukite,

            Yep.

            They grow big enough to eat deer and alligators along with smaller creatures.

            1. The myth of invasive species being harmful is just another justification to kill other species. The human view of life on this planet is ignorant and about as relevant as a Disney animated film. We like to make lots of noise and think we are doing “good”.
              Pretenders to the throne. Really not even fit to be court jesters.

              As we kill off more species and deplete populations across the globe, we deem ourselves the culler of other species. Even though we are the most invasive and destructive species ourselves. We grab the false crown of nature’s protectors by more killing. The emperors have no clothes and not much brains.
              Just look in the mirror and cull thyself first. Leave the other creatures alone.

            2. The myth of invasive species being harmful is just another justification to kill other species.

              GF, I seldom get really pissed at things people post on this blog. But that is the goddamn stupidest thing I have read in years. The myth of invasive species being dangerous??? Are zebra mussels an invasive species? Are rabbits in Australia an invasive species? Are fire ants in the southern USA an invasive species? There were no snakes on Guam. Now green snakes from Southeast Asia are eating all the birds’ eggs on Guam and the birds have no defense against them. Most of the birds native to Guam will soon be extinct. Rats on most Pacific islands are wiping out many species of sea birds. And don’t get me started on what’s happening in Hawaii.

              Pythons and Boa Constrictors in the Everglades are definitely an invasive species. And they are definitely dangerous.

              Almost every invasive species are wiping out other native species. And it is largely because they have no natural enemies in their new habitat. Asian carp are wiping out other fish species in American rivers. Zebra mussels are clogging water lines in the Great Lakes area because in American waters nothing feeds on them there. Pythons and constrictors have no natural enemies in the everglades so they just continue to wipe out other species. Gray squirrels, from America, are wiping out brown squirrels in England. They are taking over their habitat and crowding them out. And I could go on and on with such stories.

              Invasive species are not a myth and they are very, very dangerous to native species.

              Check this one out:
              11 invasive species wrecking havoc around the world

              11 Invasive Species Wreaking Havoc Around the World
              Invasive species are bad news. They compete with native critters for food, destroy local ecology and, in some cases, are even dangerous to humans. And thanks to the increasingly global nature of our world, there are more and more animals discovered where they don’t belong every year. Here are just a few pests that have hitched rides to distant shores, where they’re currently wreaking havoc.

              And the list of 11 species follows that article. But that is just a tiny sample. There are literally hundreds of them. And at least 90% of them are dangerous to native species or to the environment. Kudzu from Japan is strangling trees and other plants in the Southeast USA and the invasive Melaleuca tree from Australia is destroying the everglades by lowering the water table.

              Goddammit, when I get started on the damage invasive species are doing I just don’t know when to stop.

            3. Ron, you will never learn anything with a closed mind. But I do not expect you to learn anything or to expand your perspective.
              “Pythons and constrictors have no natural enemies ” I agree, there are no natural enemies, there are however many predators of pythons in the wild. Enemies is just one more human word being erroneously applied to nature. You can find out all the predators just with a short internet search. But that would reduce your Claghorn effect.

              But for the few others willing to at least spend some time thinking beyond their own little skulls:

              https://www.thenatureofcities.com/2015/09/14/the-myths-of-alien-species-an-alternate-perspective-on-wild/

              A thorough reading and understanding of this might bring a little enlightenment to those who don’t cherry pick facts and jump to conclusions that fit their pre-ordained view of the world.

              https://www.fws.gov/GOMCP/pdfs/lampreyreport.pdf

              Many “invasive” species such as man make changes to the ecosystems. They bring both benefits and harm, but eventually become part of the system or die out. Man is trying hard to not be part of the system, so will either change or die out. Pythons are not very technical so will be part of the system as they are in other parts of the world.
              Fractured and highly disturbed “wild” areas are highly susceptible to other species since so many niches are open and predators are removed.
              I think alligators find young pythons a tasty snack.
              Ask the Canada Goose how it feels to be persecuted by man, just for pooping on a lawn. Such weirdness should not be allowed. Nor should man be trusted in determining what should live or die. Humans are not trustworthy, they need to work on that before being the executioners of other species.

              All species bring benefits to the environment or die out. It’s a system thing.

            4. Ron, you will never learn anything with a closed mind.

              GF, you wouldn’t know a closed mind if it bit you in the ass. But if you really want to see one, just look in the mirror. Do you really have any idea what the term “closed mind” means? I have an open mind but it is not so open my brains fall out.

              I read both your links. One of them even agreed with me on the cane toad.

              In Australia, the introduction of the poisonous cane toad as biocontrol for native beetles instead turned out to be lethal for local lizards, snakes, and even crocodiles.

              It really gets pathetic when you try arguing in favor of invasive species but cannot help but point out just how disastrous they really are. Did the idiot who wrote that article not realize that the cane toad was an invasive species? Oh, it doesn’t matter that the species was deliberately introduced to Australia, like the rabbit, it is still an invasive species. Perhaps half of all invasive species were intentionally introduced by humans.

              Read this article:
              Guam’s Plague of Snakes Is Devastating The Whole Island Ecosystem, Even The Trees

              In case you’re unfamiliar with Guam’s infamous ‘snake problem’, the island is known for hosting an invasion of venomous brown snakes that have wreaked havoc on its native animal population.

              Now researchers have shown it’s not just the birds and rodents that have suffered – the growth of new trees could be falling by as much as 92 percent thanks to the snakes’ appetites.

              But read the whole article. Then tell me that invasive species are not dangerous.
              Before WW2 there were no snakes on Guam.

            5. Thanks Ron, I can see I am not welcome here.
              Your example of the cane toad backfired. It is just another example of the ignorance people show in trying to control nature. That was my major point. People do not know enough or think deeply enough to make judgments about what should or should not be in the natural world.

              I guess I cannot expect a card carrying member of the most destructive invasive species to comprehend or even attempt to comprehend.

            6. Thanks Ron, I can see I am not welcome here.

              Oh, don’t be so thinned skinned. This has nothing to do with your welcome. And besides, this is not my blog anymore, it belongs to Dennis Coyne.

              Your example of the cane toad backfired. It is just another example of the ignorance people show in trying to control nature.

              No, it did not backfire. It, and you above, make my point exactly. It doesn’t matter how the invasive species got there, the end result is almost always very bad.

              I guess I cannot expect a card carrying member of the most destructive invasive species to comprehend or even attempt to comprehend.

              Comprehend what? Did you read the Guam brown snake episode? Did you comprehend that? If so, what did you think of it. But I don’t expect a reply. There is just no way you can make that story have a happy ending.

            7. Ron, of course you take an extreme case from a remote tiny island not even half the size of Los Angeles and then try to extrapolate it to the world in general.
              You also missed the major pointa, or at least avoided discussing it. Sorry, you generally never discuss anything so that does not apply.
              Extermination is the main activity of civilization, so try and stay civil.

            8. Guam is not an extreme case at all. I posted overwhelming evidence that almost all invasive species are extremely destructive. See my post at the bottom. I posted it down there because it would be too long and narrow up here.

              Hey, I call them as I see them. Sometimes the case is so serious and destructive that it requires a strong reply… I call them as I see them.

  13. islandboy —

    Virtually all oil and gas produced on the Norwegian shelf is exported; combined, oil and gas equals roughly half of the total value of Norway’s exports of goods. Furthermore, only a third of the Norway’s estimated gas resources have been produced with the production level expected to remain high for the next 15-20 years; if optimistic resource estimates prove correct, production figures will be even higher than the current forecasts.

    By your twisted logic this is all OK because Norway is a big producer of renewable energy. In fact, 99% of electricity production in mainland Norway is from hydropower plants. And, the icing on this cake is: according to the chief of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Assn., the country is on track to hit 50 percent of the EV market share in 2019. Further, Norway wants nothing but zero-emission vehicles on offer by 2025. Conclusion, we can dance in the streets while fossil fuels are exported so long as electricity comes from renewable sources and lots of EVs are running around at home. Right?

    1. BTW Peter Erickson, a senior scientist with the Stockholm Environment Institute, found that emissions from Norway’s oil exports this year will be 10 times as much as Norway’s domestic carbon emissions. He argues: “Countries are measured by how much they reduce their own emissions, within their own borders, not by the impact they have on the planet as a whole.” So, we have a climate leader and oil giant — A Norwegian Paradox!

      1. Norway has no control over the rest of the world. However, it is doing a fine job of showing how to control oneself, in a technological way. They need that money to buy those EVs and keep those hydro plants running.
        Meanwhile, as with coal, the world needs that oil to produce all those EVs, PV, wind turbines and associated techno-fixes. Without the abundance of fossil fuels, people would be forced to live within the natural constraints of the planet and not be so destructive and wasteful.
        To put it simply, without FF, the renewable energy growth would crash to a halt. Could you imagine burning wood to power the renewable revolution?
        There is the current paradox.
        To produce life, it was necessary to mine the earth for minerals, collect vast amounts of solar energy and produce toxic oxygen waste products. Vast amounts of water were used and still are by life. Life is smart though, through very complex chemistry and structures it can do all this at low temperatures and it “learned” to use the waste products. It also does a great job at recycling.
        Hmm, maybe we should join the rest of life on this planet instead of living a nightmare we think of as a dream. Just a thought. A war on nature is as unwinnable and stupid as nuclear war, just slower.

  14. Global Cooling News:

    2019 concludes a decade of exceptional global heat, retreating ice and record sea levels. Average temps for 10-year (2010-2019) period set to be highest on record. 2019 is on course to be 2nd or 3rd warmest year on record.

    1. Arrgh! People don’t know how to do math. Calendars start at year 1, thus the first decade is years 1 through 10, the second decade is years 11 through 20, and so forth. Decades and centuries don’t end with years that end in 9’s, they end in years that end with 0’s.

      1. Dr: Computer languages have arrays (lists) either base [0] or base [1]. Could go either way. Get over it 🙂

      2. Dr Benzene, are you also adamant that the week starts on Monday, and that the week is seven days? I was hoping that a 9 day week starting on Thursday would be adopted, but still with a 5 day work period. I could use more time off.

        1. What day the week starts on isn’t a matter of math, but cultural. Some cultures/countries say Monday, others say Sunday. There’s no correct answer.

        2. “Blatant stupidity is just like oil; there is no substitute for it.”

  15. Bit of trivia or, out of sight, out of mind?

    About 157,000 shipping containers (429 per day) of U.S. plastic waste were exported in 2018 to countries that are now known to be overwhelmed with plastic waste and major sources of plastic pollution to the ocean. The actual amount of U.S. plastic waste that ends in countries with poor waste management may be higher than 78% since countries like Canada and South Korea may reexport U.S. plastic waste.

    https://www.plasticpollutioncoalition.org/blog/2019/3/6/157000-shipping-containers-of-us-plastic-waste-exported-to-countries-with-poor-waste-management-in-2018

  16. Haven’t commented in awhile. I had a read of what folks had to say today.

    It continues to sound like we’re still well and truly f*cked.

    Good to know. I’m going to go back to trying to raise my daughter in the catastrophe we’re leaving behind for her.

    Yee haw!

    :-/

    At least my daughter is cute and wonderful. I hope I die before she does. Her death due to collapse would wound me something fierce since I knew about it and did too little (not that there was really anything to do as Ron points out).

    Such is life I suppose, but I still don’t have to like it.

    1. DI- things are a little worse since you last checked in. About 4 weeks worse. I think that is 4700 species equivalent.

    2. DI,

      The ship of civilization as we know it , the ship we are all ON, is leaking like a sieve, and we’re short of everything, and we’re already in the early stages of a huge storm.

      The hard core doomers here don’t think the ship is going to make port, period. I used to be one of them.

      But in recent years, I’ve come to believe that while the ship itself is almost sure to sink, it’s not necessarily going to sink with all hands.

      Some lifeboats, after a manner of speaking, are almost for sure going to make port.

      Your daughter may yet conceivably live a long, dignified, and fulfilling life.

      There are things you can do to make it more likely that she WILL live such a life.

      You can at least try to put her in a lifeboat, in a manner of speaking.

      Some people in some places, especially the ones that have the right skills and who are integrated into the local community and economy, are probably going to be ok.

      No guarantees, but no need to give up either!

  17. On the energy news front-
    Offshore east coast wind beginning to roll-
    “Vineyard’s win adds another huge project to the pipeline underway in Eastern U.S. waters, where state offshore wind targets have rapidly grown to exceed 20 gigawatts.”

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/breaking-connecticut-selects-vineyards-804mw-offshore-wind-project

    And
    Big battery plant announced at the Lordstown manufacturing campus where GM recently sold a big factory to Lordstown Motors for their upcoming pickup truck. GM/LG Chem collaboration.

    https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/05/gm-lg-chem-to-invest-2-3-billion-to-in-ev-battery-joint-venture/

    https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/electric-pickup-lordstown-motors-gm/

    1. The electrical energy storage market is growing at a phenomenal rate. Search electrical battery and energy storage and you will get a string of hits talking about growth compounding at ten to twenty percent rates.

      Now here’s something we should think about. The bigger an industrial base, THE FASTER it will be possible to ramp it up, in case it NEEDS ramping up.

      We maintain a standing army not because we NEED the troops for some immediate purpose, but because having lots of men in uniform means that when the shit hits the fan, we have the resources AT HAND which are necessary to turn an army of raw recruits into competent troops many times faster than we could otherwise .

      It’s not totally out of the question that every dime we spend on ramping up the renewable energy industries and the energy storage industries will be the dime that makes it possible for us to actually go proactive successfully, later on, in terms of giving up fossil fuels.

      Luck is an impartial bitch.

      She brought us trump, but she may yet deliver the WAKE UP bricks upside our collective head that are our only real hope of getting our act together.

      1. True, and this offshore wind industry is going to be a big boost for the port towns that service them, like Bridgeport,CT indicated in one of those articles, for example.

  18. I do wonder what the chief climate no-accountants will do with this information.

    Climate emissions from tropical forest damage ‘underestimated by a factor of six’
    Greenhouse gas emissions caused by damage to tropical rainforests around the world are being underestimated by a factor of six, according to a new study.

    Research led by the University of Queensland finds the climate impact of selective logging, outright clearing and fire in tropical rainforests between 2000 and 2013 was underestimated by 6.53bn tonnes of CO2.

    The numbers are likely conservative, and also did not include emissions from other woodlands or the massive boreal forests in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/31/climate-emissions-from-tropical-forest-damage-underestimated-by-a-factor-of-six

    1. The real question is how many climate researchers younger than let’s say 45 are putting away money for retirement? If this stuff is really as dire as they and a Swede with pigtails want us to believe (plus, its a given that the Indians and Chinese are not going to stop being the world’s biggest polluters) then what point is there in planning for a comfortable retirement? Bottom lime, if the biggest climate experts are still contributing money to a 401k then I think we can take it easy.

      1. Timothy —

        “(plus, its a given that the Indians and Chinese are not going to stop being the world’s biggest polluters)…”

        For the record, the top 5 most polluting countries are: China (30%), United States (15%), India (7%), Russia (5%), Japan (4%).

      2. By the way, Timothy Hay, you have happened by chance to hit on a huge factor in forced climate change, MONEY! It’s not that people don’t care, it’s not that they don’t know, as many of the surveys show, they know that climate change is a severe danger.
        But the culture, yes the society, has all their food, clothing, shelter, medicine and even their families behind a PAYWALL. Yep, and if they try to go around the PAYWALL, it’s men with guns locking up or even killing one. No fun!
        In order to PAY, one must join the fossil fuel fray, which is heavily inserted into the system and all money paid goes out into the world to make it go further astray.

        So one can be a monk, a minimalist, a hermit or one can be part of society. Society, equals the burn and destruction of the ecosystem, a death cult all the way.
        Caught in such a dilemma the typical human eliminates cognitive dissonance and joins the forced destruction of the planet. Maybe making a small effort to protect something or reduce their use of fuels and chemicals. But still in the fray, because it is the WAY, Mister Hay.

      3. Cumulative CO2 levels are what matters. Here’s a fun little animation showing who has contributed what so far:

        https://t.co/cKRNKO4O0b

        The U.S. has already used up more than it’s fair share of the so called ‘carbon budget’, and we share a larger responsibility toward action. We also will have no moral leverage to pressure other nations so long as we refuse to put our own house in order.

          1. I love that particular kind of visualization.

            Somewhat off topic, but here’s one depicting processor advancement in comparison to the prediction of Moore’s Law:

            https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/cynql1/moores_law_graphed_vs_real_cpus_gpus_1965_2019_oc/

            And here is one showing U.S. Electric Car Sales 2010-2019:
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpsd0yRYk8c

            I hope the EV one gets updated over time. It will be fun to watch one a decade from now and see what surprises occur.

            1. Thank you for that link, such beautiful representation of prediction vs actual.

            2. Very well done.
              Good to see that some people still believe in the value of fact and data.

            3. that was fun!

              it might be updated on an annual basis, but it seems like most car companies have stopped releasing monthly sales figures now that YOY sales are down, and 2019 might not even beat 2018 in US or globally. but since we won’t have the numbers it’s anybody’s guess. Tony Seba didn’t see that coming!

  19. islandboy, how do you reconcile the following with your glowing Australian renewable energy reports? 😉

    ONE OF THE WORLD’S BIGGEST EMITTERS IS TRYING TO FLY UNDER THE RADAR AT COP25

    “Australia is the third biggest fossil fuel exporter, has high emissions and plans to use a loophole to meet its pledges. At Cop25, Australia will try and keep a low profile, focus on blue carbon and avoid discussing its accounting tricks to meet its Paris promises. When it comes to climate change, Australia really struggles. With high emissions, even higher fossil fuel exports, harsh climate impacts (like the current unprecedented bush fires) and weak climate action. Australia’s response is to just keep on digging (literally – which is why it remains the world’s largest coal exporter).

    According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report, coal is responsible for 40% of fossil fuel and industry emissions. But wait there is more, according to the Production Gap Report Australia is on track to double emissions from fossil fuels production by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels).

    And, according to the Australia Institute’s Climate of the Nation Report 2019, 76% of Australians agree that climate change is causing more bushfires. Yet David Littleproud (real name), the minister appointed to head up the disaster response, claimed it was ‘irrelevant’ whether climate change contributed. To admit climate change supercharges bushfires, as many fire chiefs stated, would require responding accordingly. Instead other potential causes were brought in like not enough land clearing. Easier to blame others than to come to terms with your own poor efforts to solve a global problem.”

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/12/06/one-worlds-biggest-emitters-trying-fly-radar-cop25/

    1. Doug, we need the coal shipped to Asia so they can build and install all those renewable energy devices.
      BTW, my car emits no CO2 when it is parked, not running. Yet I still do, 24/7.
      Humans alone emit 9 million tons of CO2 every day, that is 3.6 billion tons a year. Maybe some methane too. 🙂
      If one does an honest accounting of GHG emissions, agriculture is the largest emission sector globally and the largest biosphere destructor. So why worry about coal, PV and wind will eventually cut that down in a few decades? It’s big ag that needs a whipping into shape.

      1. “It’s big ag that needs a whipping into shape.”

        I agree. That’ll also help feed the 80 million-ish souls we are adding to planet Earth every year. Meanwhile, one wonders if projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability will effect a reduction in agricultural productivity while it’s being “fixed”.

        Or, perhaps the (inherent) conservatism of farmers is the bigger threat. One of my neighbours is a major beef rancher who buys up more and more and more land every year so he can keep expanding his heard(s). When I mention global warming to him he just smiles as one does when dealing with an idiot — i.e., me!

        1. Yes, agriculture by definition is the destruction of the natural inhabitants of an area to provide a specific demand of a human society. In small areas with low population it can be tolerated. In the large industrial form with large populations it is devastating.

          We do not choose to wreck most of the earth all at once, we choose to do so one by one and group by group, spreading that choice as we spread ourselves.
          At some point bad choices backfire. When the backfire is on a planetary scale it gets in the news and causes a stir. Up till lately, most people thought we were doing quite well. Over the last century or so, the man behind the curtain has been revealed.
          We are living in turbulent times and the entrenched ideas in most people’s heads have to go.

    2. Doug, it appears you may have unwittingly come up with an explanation on your own as evidenced by your posts lower down under the headline:

      “LEADING SCIENTISTS CONDEMN POLITICAL INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AS AUSTRALIA ‘LITERALLY BURNS’”

      I am particularly impressed that two of the countries leading the charge with renewables, solar PV in particular, are free market economies with huge interests in coal mining that have attempted to buy their respective governments and have been eminently successful in Australia. Another point worthy of note is that despite the fact that the Australian federal government is owned lock, stock and barrel by FF interests, the citizenry and the state governments are pushing ahead despite the fervent opposition by the federal government. The situation is somewhat similar in the US with the GOP and Trump administration being owned by FF interests while some states, California being the prime example are decidedly pro renewable and determined to take measures to curb CO2 emissions.

      It is also interesting that of the top ten countries with the largest cumulative CO2 emissions since 1750, seven are on the top ten countries in order of cumulative PV installation. The top two CO2 emitters, the USA and China are also the top two in terms of installed PV. If the free market is in favour of PV in two of the largest coal mining countries in the world, I don’t see how coal is going to remain dominant in the future over the long term.

  20. Continuing with my cornucopia themed posts.

    GULF COAST CORALS FACE CATASTROPHE

    “If coral reefs are the canary to the ocean’s coal mine, it’s getting awfully bleak in the Gulf of Mexico. A study by Rice University Earth scientists asserts: Without a rapid and dramatic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, fragile coral reefs in the Gulf of Mexico, like those around the world, face catastrophe. And, there’s limited evidence to suggest adaptation could occur fast enough compared to how quickly we’re warming the oceans. Because, millions of years ago, rates of sea surface temperature change and ocean acidification, such as those we’re experiencing now, would have happened over much longer time scales.”

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/ru-gcc120519.php

    1. Currently:
      N. hemisphere: +0.9C over average
      Arctic +1.6C Antarctic +3C

  21. In case anyone was wondering Why Are Invasive Species Harmful?

    Ecological impact

    Invasive species have singlehandedly caused 20% of species extinctions across the planet since the year 1600
    Invasive species have contributed significantly to half of all species extinctions since the year 1600
    An estimated 42% of the species currently on the federal Endangered Species Act list are imperiled at least in part because of some harm caused by invasive species
    Nearly 40 species that are currently candidates for listing under the federal Endangered Species Act are at risk because of harm caused by invasive species
    Invasive species can dramatically re-shape ecosystems and fundamentally alter predator-prey relationships
    Dutch elm disease and chestnut blight have already re-shaped North American forest ecosystems
    The Asian longhorned beetle, emerald ash borer, hemlock wood adelgid, and sudden oak death are among the invasive species that threaten the next wave of forest ecosystem trauma in North America
    Invasive species can literally take over an ecosystem, becoming the vast bulk of the biomass in the ecosystem.
    More than 90% of the biomass in San Francisco Bay is of alien origin.
    Zebra and quagga mussels literally smother native mussel communities
    Kudzu forms a green mat over the landscape, choking everything in its path

    Economic impact

    According to Molly Michelson of the California Academy of Sciences, invasive species annually cause $1.4 trillion in damage to the global economy.
    According to Professor David Pimentel of Cornell University, invasive species cause damage of $127 billion annually to the American economy, including:
    Agricultural crop weeds — $21 billion
    Crop plant pathogens — $18 billion
    Livestock diseases — $9 billion
    Pasture weeds — $6 billion
    Forest pests — $4 billion
    Landscaping pests — $3 billion
    Other annual estimates for individual invasive species include
    Zebra mussels — $2 billion, especially in the Great Lakes states
    Pigeons — $1 billion
    Asian clams — $1 billion
    Formosan termites — $1 billion, especially in Louisiana
    Fire ants — $1 billion, especially in Texas
    Feral pigs — $1 billion
    There are dozens of other invasive species that each annually cost the American economy $10 million to $100 million.
    Invasive plants such as salt cedar, Russian olive, and giant reed drain precious groundwater and surface water supplies in drought-prone Western states, consuming thousands of acre-feet of water worth millions of dollars and threatening the economy of the West

    Human health impact

    West Nile virus is predominantly a disease of birds transmitted by infected mosquitos, but it has killed 1,500 Americans and sickened 37,000 through 2012
    Giant African land snails are a known carrier of meningitis
    Fire ants have been known to hospitalize bitten human victims
    Feral swine carry 37 parasites and 30 disease organisms that affect humans
    People have drowned after becoming entangled in dense mats of invasive aquatic weeds
    Invasive plants re-shape range ecosystems, making them more susceptible to wildland fires that each year takes lives, destroy property, and cost hundreds of millions of dollars to control

    Recreation impact

    Invasive terrestrial weeds degrade elk, moose, and deer habitat, and reduce opportunities for hunters
    Invasive aquatic weeds, birds, and mammals damage waterfowl habitat and degrade the boating, swimming, and fishing experience in our lakes, rivers, and coastal areas
    Asian carp threaten the multi-billion dollar Great Lakes recreational and commercial fishing industry, and the boating industry that depends on them.

    1. Here are some facts:
      • Compared to other threats to the native ecosystem, invasive introduced species rank 2nd only to habitat destruction, such as forest clearing.
      • Of all 1,880 species at risk in the United States, 49% are endangered because of introduced species alone or because of their impact combined with other forces.
      • Introduced species are a greater threat to native biodiversity than pollution, harvest, and disease combined.
      • Damage to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and other human operations, invasive species inflict an economic cost, estimated at $137 billion per year to the U.S. economy alone.
      • Some introduced species (such as most of our food crops and pets) are beneficial. However, many others are very damaging.

      The ones most visible to me (western Canada) are the European starling and Asian Carp. Now starlings occupy most of North America, stealing nesting sites from other birds and robbing the agriculture industry of $800 million dollars annually by damaging fields. Starlings also spread diseases that are infectious to both humans and livestock, costing an additional $800 million a year in healthcare. Carp – These fish were brought to the U.S. in the 1970s as live vacuum cleaners meant to remove algae and other matter from ponds. They can grow to weight 100 lbs and will eat just about anything, adapting very well to new environments. They now represent 90% of the biomass in the Illinois River! Researchers worry that they will reach the Great Lakes and be problematic to the fragile ecosystem there.

      http://knowbefore.weatherbug.com/2014/03/27/top-5-invasive-species-u-s/

      1. There is so much wrong with that comment that I just shake my head and run away from this “discussion”.

        1. Well I don’t know about where live but here no bird has been more destructive to native wildlife than the European Starling. They push out native cavity nesters like bluebirds, owls, and woodpeckers. Large flocks can, and do, destroy crops, and their waste spreads invasive seeds and transmits disease. They’re everywhere. Here farmers hate them so much that they’ve developed all manner of strategies to keep them away from farms, from special nets to cover fruit trees, to gas-operated “exploders” to scare them away. Even the Audubon Society says, “it’s okay to hate starlings.” BTW, what exactly is wrong with this comment?

          1. Ok, let’s talk starlings. Starling populations in the US and Britain have been in steep decline for decades. In the US the drop has been by more than half since the 1960’s.
            In Britain
            “In Britain, the starling still is far from extinction. But as one wildlife expert told a Plymouth newspaper, “We used to get some very big starling roosts in the autumn and winter with millions of birds. Nowadays you can count them, when at one time they were literally countless.” Scientists think the causes of the decline involve farming practices that have poisoned insect prey with pesticides and chopped down grassland habitat. Other farmland bird populations too are reeling from the impacts.”

            I remember the myth that starlings (introduced to the US in the 1890’s) would displace and eradicate the bluebird population. Sorry, the Bluebird population has been increasing since the 1940’s and the eastern bluebird population rose rather steeply after WWII to the early 2000’s. Other bluebird populations rose slowly. Myth busted.

            Since people here seem to love anecdotal evidence. I have watched native birds literally throw starlings out of nests. Starlings don’t last long around here. They move on and have become rare.

            As far as birds go, declines point right back at humans. Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the most devastating species of all?

            As far as ecological niches go, there were 3 to 5 billion passenger pigeons easily supported by the environment. Now people squawk about less than 300 million starlings or 3 to 4 million Canada Geese (which came close to getting wiped out a century ago).

            1. Well I don’t know about other places but the starling population is down here, for one simple reason – starling control programs. In one small area alone (the Okanagan Valley) over 50,000 starlings are caught and “euthanized” every year . And, moving forward our “Starling Program” plans to target North Okanagan birds to reduce numbers even farther. Quoting a wildlife expert: “We’re going to focus on barns in the North Okanagan and try and get entire flocks at a time rather than birds flying by in their migration patterns. We’re going to try and get them where they’re roosting.” But, this is hardly a natural population decline.

            2. First, let me say that I absolutely agree with you on one point. Humans are the most destructive species on earth. And for every continent except Africa, humans are an invasive species. And they destroy the environment on every continent or island they invade. And, their massive overpopulation will eventually destroy Africa as well.

              But the subject of this thread is starlings. Why are their populations declining? The answer is obvious, for the same reason the population of every other insect-eating species on earth is declining. Their food supply is disappearing.

              Plummeting insect numbers ‘threaten collapse of nature’

              The world’s insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, according to the first global scientific review.

              More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century.

              I think that answers the question on why the starling population is in decline. The question that remains is: “Why are insects disappearing?” There may be several reasons but one reason is clearly pesticides.

              Edit: Of course as Doug points out, starling control programs are another reason starlings are disappearing. Those damn starlings just can’t catch a break can they? 😉

            3. Yeah, starlings eat almost anything they can get their grubby beaks on including seeds, insects, small vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fruits. Apparently the most common animals eaten by the starling are centipedes, spiders, moths, and earthworms. And, as you say, pesticides have wiped out insects in many areas leaving fruit and berry crops as convenient backup targets. Here (see my comment above) we have starling control programs in effect owing to the huge destructive pressure they have on fruit crops. These programs work, allegedly!

            4. Oh Doug, you know that people exaggerate any “threat”. Around here they kill off the geese because they poop.

              It looks to me as if the overall North American plan is to decimate or eradicate populations of birds then after removing their natural foods to concentrate their replacements on croplands for further decimation and eradication. It will get to the point where no further replacements follow.
              Job done. Humans should be so proud of themselves.

              Doesn’t matter how they are labeled or what they are called. It’s still an invasive species, humans, killing off it’s competition.
              BTW, here in the low 48, massive poisoning programs have been ongoing for decades. Despite the advertisement, the poisons are not species specific.

              Why are humans exempt from labeling? Oh, because they are special and godlike.
              Not for long.

            5. Hey Ron, the starlings are starving to death, being poisoned and killed. Maybe that is a model for the human race as they too run up against limits.

              Just something to think about. What goes around comes around.

            6. Ron,

              “…for every continent except Africa humans are an invasive species.”

              Beautifully put! I will use that if I may.

    2. Thanks for the information brought to us by Syngenta, makers of pesticides and herbicides, big business and big government. Syngenta is one of the two members of the group you got the info from.
      A lot of short term, economic BS. It’s bad if they say it’s bad, right? Of course who and what is it bad for? One must ask that question.
      If people actually gave a crap about nature, would they keep doing what they are doing?
      Be honest, stop cuddling up to the economic big boys of destruction and start thinking about how nature works, or used to work.
      As I said, extermination is paramount, knowledge and comprehension are pushed aside by agenda.

      Already damaged and depopulated environments (which is most of them) and low diversity environments (islands) are more open to new species. Have you heard about the piranha population in the Lehigh River?The local fish love to eat them and the local fishermen are excited by them.

      So the recipe for successful invasion is to first deplete the biodiversity of a system and population at all levels of an area (human invasion) then bring in some non-native species to fill the open niches.

      Indeed, one of the big surprises to invasion biologists is the large number of alien species that any given ecosystem can harbor. South Florida, perhaps the most conspicuously invaded region on the U.S. mainland, is home to at least 300 introduced plant species—about 18 percent of the plant total. In San Francisco Bay, marine ecologists Jim Carlton of the Maritime Studies Program of Williams College and Mystic Seaport and Andrew Cohen of the San Francisco Estuary Institute have discovered more than 250 nonindigenous species. In the classic view of ecosystems, outlined by Elton and later Robert MacArthur and E. O. Wilson in their theory of island biogeography, ecosystems run on a knife’s edge: They are tightly structured, without much room for new competitors.

      “What invasions have shown is that there are plenty of unused resources,” says Ted Grosholz, a marine biologist at the University of California at Davis who for years has monitored the incursion of the European green crab into the bay. “Ecosystems can absorb a lot of new species. I mean, holy cow, look at San Francisco Bay! Who would have thought an ecosystem had that much unused niche space?”

      https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/the-truth-about-invasive-species

      Isn’t it curious how alien species are so successful? One would think they would not work very well, being out of their territory.

      I brought up these points to stir thought about them, that the systems are more complex than “kill it if it thrives”. Maybe some realization that unbalanced systems need to be aided toward balance not just death of inconvenient species. But I guess old and incomplete knowledge becomes like a religion with hard believers and questioning is not allowed.
      Hail the old ways, may they soon pass into oblivion. Not soon enough for me.


      1. The True Story of Kudzu, the Vine That Never Truly Ate the South

        A naturalist cuts through the myths surrounding the invasive plant

        The more I investigate, the more I recognize that kudzu’s place in the popular imagination reveals as much about the power of American mythmaking, and the distorted way we see the natural world, as it does about the vine’s threat to the countryside.
        https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/true-story-kudzu-vine-ate-south-180956325/

        /

        1. Concerning Kudzu. Hey, I was born in the land of Kudzu and lived the vast majority of my life looking at Kudzu. It was everywhere. It climbs utility poles, it covers old abandoned cars so that you cannot see them. It covers the countrysides.

          Yes, it is sometimes beneficial as it will grow almost anywhere, including eroded washed out basins. And cows just love the stuff. But it strangles trees.

          I am not really pissed off at Kudzu, I actually love the stuff. But you cannot drive through Mississippi, Alabama or Georgia without looking at miles and miles of the stuff lining the highway covering everything including utility poles, trees and anything else that might have have been abandoned on the side of the road. I have seen junkyards where the junk was barely visible through the kudzu.

          So please don’t try to bullshit me about kudzu.

      2. If people actually gave a crap about nature, would they keep doing what they are doing?

        Who said people actually give a crap about nature? No, the vast majority do not. But why did you make that statement? What does that have to do with invasive species?

    3. Thanks for pointing out all of those aspects Ron.
      Although it may be painful for me to admit,
      I must agree with one point made by GF, if
      I heard it correctly.

      Humans are the greatest [destructive] invasive species, of course.
      No other example is necessary.

      1. Hickory, why on earth would you think I would disagree with that statement? Everything I have posted on this blog for the past five years, on subjects other than energy, confirms that I agree with that statement.

        Yes, yes, fucking yes. We Homo sapiens are destroying the earth. I have made statements along those lines over and over again. Geeze… were you not paying attention?

        2. Hi Ron, I was not intending to suggest that you would disagree with such a basic point.
          I was just trying to emphasis the importance of the concept about invasive species being a horror show, with ourselves as the best example.

  22. Not a pretty picture!

    AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRES NORTH OF SYDNEY ‘TOO BIG TO PUT OUT’

    A “mega blaze” raging across a 60km (37 mile) front north of the Australian city of Sydney cannot currently be put out, fire officials have warned. New South Wales Rural Fire Service (RFS) deputy commissioner, Rob Rogers told ABC: “We cannot stop these fires, they will just keep burning until conditions ease, and then we’ll try to do what we can to contain them.” He said the 60km stretch from Hawkesbury to Singleton was “just fire that whole way”.

    “There is an absolute lack of moisture in the soil, a lack of moisture in the vegetation… you are seeing fires started very easily and they are spreading extremely quickly, and they are burning ridiculously intensely.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50690633

  24. islandboy, this is especially for you. ?

    LEADING SCIENTISTS CONDEMN POLITICAL INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AS AUSTRALIA ‘LITERALLY BURNS’

    Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist with the University of NSW’s Climate Change Research Centre, said she was “surprised, bewildered, concerned” that the emergency had prompted little discussion from political leaders this week. “Here we are in the worst bushfire season we’ve ever seen, the biggest drought we’ve ever had, Sydney surrounded by smoke, and we’ve not heard boo out of a politician addressing climate change.”

    Euan Ritchie, a wildlife ecologist at Deakin University, said he was “deeply concerned” that the extent and severity of the current fires meant that ecosystems that shouldn’t be burning – such as rainforests in NSW – were on fire. “It’s another example of failure to act on climate change, which is hurting people’s lives as well as nature.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/07/leading-scientists-condemn-political-inaction-on-climate-change-as-australia-literally-burns

  25. Will adding 10 billion tons of glass spheres to the Arctic ice each spring actually reduce the rate of ice loss? Or is it just another way to further industrialize the globe for little effect other than more CO2 from the production and mining and distribution? Big money is involved again.
    Would it be to use that glass to produce more PV and more thermal heat collectors to reduce carbon?
    Or is it just more magical thinking?

    ICE911
    https://www.ice911.org/beads

    “We waited too long to address climate change and now we must by time”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMQ0xQrgBms

    Can these people be trusted?

    1. “The most common form of terrorism in the U.S.A. is that carried on by bulldozers and chainsaws.”
      -Abbey

    2. Nations have often gone to war, and prevailed, when the odds against seemed to be totally overwhelming.

      If we get really lucky, there’s a slim but real chance we just might turn the corner on collapse with a fair number of people being able to maintain something recognizable as a modern industrial civilization.

      https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/06/danish-renewables-auction-too-successful-at-driving-down-public-cost-of-clean-energy/

      Now I’m NOT proposing that we embargo Australian coal exports….. but just suppose that the USA and the rest of the Western alliance, whatever is left of it after trump is gone, decides to offer the people of Australia a deal that pleases them so much they vote OUT the politicians who support the coal exports on the grand scale.

      Big enough mutual problems can make friends out of the worst enemies sometimes.

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