The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for January 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is December 2022 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In most of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line is monthly output and the red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.
The US EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published on January 10, 2023. This report generally provides forecasts for Total Liquids production for non-OPEC nations, crude only output for OPEC nations, and both C+C and Total Liquids forecasts for the US. At Peak Oil Barrel we focus on crude plus condensate (C+C) output as this is the critical input that provides most of the World’s liquid fuels used for land, air and water transportation. The STEO also provides forecasts for natural gas and electricity output as well as price forecasts for oil, natural gas, and electricity. This post will focus on oil (both total liquids and C+C).
We find the OLS trend in the ratio of C+C divided by total liquids for non-OPEC minus the US over the period from October 2014 to September 2022 (it has been decreasing at an annual rate of 0.267% over that period) and we assume the trend continues from October 2022 to December 2024 (the end of the STEO forecast). This allows us to estimate non-OPEC minus US C+C. Likewise we find the ratio of OPEC crude to C+C which was relatively flat at about 93.7% from Jan 2010 to December 2019 and seems to be returning to this level since the depths of the pandemic. By assuming the ratio is 93.7% crude to C+C for OPEC we can estimate OPEC C+C from October 2022 to December 2022 using the STEO crude only estimate. The non-OPEC minus US C+C estimate is added to the STEO US C+C estimate and this is combined with the OPEC C+C estimate to find the World C+C STEO forecast.
Comments not related to Oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thanks.
A Guest Post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to September 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.
September Non-OPEC oil production increased by 229 kb/d to 49,962 kb/d. All of the increase came from the US, 289 kb/d. The largest offsetting decrease came from Norway 144 kb/d. Note that August output was revised down from 49,879 to 49,733 kb/d. This means that the September increase relative to the original August estimate is 83 kb/d.
October is expected to add 527 kb/d. This appears to be optimistic based on a few country charts below which project October production. Brazil +97 kb/d, Canada -600 kb/d, Kazakhstan +235 kb/d, Norway +100 kb/d and Russia +124 kb/d for a net of -44 kb/d. Maybe the EIA is not aware of the Canadian drop in October. The positive increments add 556 kb/d.
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