350 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, May 16, 2020”

  1. Carried Over-
    There are some here who perpetuate a myth, as if they hope saying it enough it will make it true, like the current president does every day.
    I don’t know if they are just very misinformed, or it is intentionally misleading (and therefore a lie).
    In the name of setting things on a straight path-

    “In the July 2011 PE magazine article “Why We Need Rational Selection of Energy Projects,” the author stated that “photovoltaic electricity generation cannot be an energy source for the future” because photovoltaics require more energy than they produce (during their lifetime), thus their “Energy Return Ratio (ERR) is less than 1:1.” Statements to this effect were not uncommon in the 1980s… However, today’s PVs return far more energy than that embodied in the life cycle of a solar system (see Figure 1).Their energy payback times (EPBT)—the time it takes to produce all the energy used in their life cycles—currently are between six months to two years, depending on the location/solar irradiation and the [specific panel] technology. And with expected life times of 30 years, their ERRs are in the range of 60:1 to 15:1, depending on the location and the technology, thus returning 15 to 60 times more energy than the energy they use. Here is a basic tutorial on the subject…
    https://www.bnl.gov/pv/files/pdf/PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_12.pdf

    Or…
    “Reaping the environmental benefits of solar energy requires spending energy to make the PV system. But as this graphic shows, the investment is small.Assuming 30-year system life, PV systems will provide a net gain of 26 to 29 years of pollution-free and greenhouse-gas-free electrical generation.”
    https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf

    Or…
    A complete PV system based on polycrystalline panels, made in 2017, would need 15.8 MJ of primary energy per watt-peak. This corresponds to an EPBT [Energy Pay Back Time] of roughly 1.2 years (for global average yield)
    https://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2016/12/8/musqo7036dslptm1b8efduj6i3e7ms

    I could go on with many more sources, but the take home point is clear- Photovoltaic Energy production is net positive within a few years, taking into account all input energy required for their production and deployment (unless they are deployed in the shade of course).
    And it is never too late for anyone to learn information which can shatter their misconceptions, and dissolve their ill-conceived opinions. If….

    1. Similar story for wind energy-
      “US researchers have carried out an environmental lifecycle assessment of 2-megawatt wind turbines mooted for a large wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. Writing in the International Journal of Sustainable Manufacturing, they conclude that in terms of cumulative energy payback, or the time to produce the amount of energy required of production and installation, a wind turbine with a working life of 20 years will offer a net benefit within five to eight months of being brought online.”
      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140616093317.htm

      1. The potential for overunity energy production still does not provide the answer for Overshoot –

        Clearly – Human Beings are clever and deniers of truth.

        1. “energy production still does not provide the answer for Overshoot”
          True indeed.
          But the alternative energy (non- fossil depleting) sources are certainly useful for those individuals, regions and countries that make good of the opportunity to deploy them.

            1. Michael Moore has been exposed, here and abroad.

              “Planet of the Humans” is Garbage: A Review From Downunder

              May 16, 2020

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntB_j-91RFc
              Funny, and he talks Australian, which is always a plus.

              M. Moore’s movie doing great with the right wing online, but in the real world, it’s sunk his reputation, and is simply irrelevant to the ongoing technological disruption.

              https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/16/planet-of-the-humans-is-garbage-a-review-from-downunder/

            2. “M. Moore’s movie doing great with the right wing online, but in the real world, it’s sunk his reputation, and is simply irrelevant to the ongoing technological disruption.”
              Agree.

            3. All on a sudden Truth is right-wing or left wing? The video lays it out plainly with many Observations. What is not to understand?

              In the real World – biomass represents SOMETHING – and that SOMETHING is cut down and manufactured into Biomass via fossil fuel powered machines. The EROI is likely horrid – and more than likely – like Solar and wind, Biomass is an energy sink.

            4. Well yes, the right elected a conman. Where have you been for the last four years?

            5. Tim E

              Energy payback for solar PV multicrystalline cells (the predominant type installed today) is about 2 years for the average land insolation area on the planet (30 N to 30S) approximately 1700 kWh/m2. For average wind turbine (common size installed today is about 5 MW) energy payback time is about 1 year.

              For solar the average facility operates for about 25 years, for wind perhaps 12 years.

              I agree biofuel is likely an energy sink or at best 1 to 1, so zero net energy.

            6. Mistake above on latitudes should have been 60N to 60S land has an average plane of array solar input of 1700 kwh/ m2/ year or roughly 4.7 kwh/m2/day on average.

            7. AFAIU, Moore only co-produced the film with Ozzie Zehner and that it’s Gibbs’. So, if so, if anyone’s going to yammer on about Moore in that context, they should include others for balance or less inaccurate skew.

            9. I agree-
              excellent!
              Jenson’s podcast is often very insightful.
              Gibbs gets the chance to speak without the obstruction of MSM.

            11. Thank you.

              “Putting Humans before Nature is Suicide”.

              TRUTH.

              But don’t you worry – Bio-fuels, solar and advanced technology will save us.

              When does the madness stop?

            12. It stops when the laughing stock (ya that’s we) of the biosphere (what’s left of it) adapt or die.

            13. When does the madness stop?

              in about 500 million years . the time it takes for the Sun to warm up /solar input increase versus the lower bound of CO2 needed in the atmosphere for photosynthesis. ( est 150ppm ).

              I think I have put that correctly

              Forbin

          2. Hi Hickory,
            Let’s not forget an additional truth about wind and solar power.
            Since the energy RETURNED is nice clean and super EFFICIENT electricity, as opposed to at best about fifty percent efficient coal and gas generation.

            Electricity, once generated, when used to run motors, as opposed to gasoline or diesel fuel used to run ICE engines is at least three times as energy efficient on average, and probably closer to four times.

            And not’s not forget that wind and solar power mean local jobs, local tax collection, local control over energy supplies, as opposed to federal and or interstate control, which should please the hell out of any orangutan voter smart enough to know anything at all about what CONSERVATISM really is, politically, lol.

            And it also means less need for military adventures overseas, fewer of our young men and women coming home in body bags.

            It even means a hell of a lot less terrorism………. because the LESS oil we use, collectively, world wide, the LESS money is available to some of the biggest supporters of terrorism.

            The biggest and meanest badass in the world can’t SWIM across an ocean, lol. Terrorism takes MONEY.

            And while I have acquaintances that REVEL in the fact that TEXAS IS BACK as an oil producer……… it makes them wince to admit that Texas will inevitably run dry again, in terms of accessible and affordable oil. It blows them away when you tell them that a typical fracked well depletes to ten percent within four years, where as the wells drilled in Texas in WWII produced thousands of barrels per day for years, sometimes for decades, instead of four hundred per day, etc.

            1. Indeed OFM.
              It is bizarre to hear the positions taken here that are so opposed to solar energy.
              I’ll add to your list of benefits- an individual, or collective or community can be their own power generator!
              No need to pay the utility a bill for electricity.
              No need to purchase fuel, or pay a fuel bill.
              In fact, it enables you to travel widely without a horse, and without an internal combustion engine, and without ever going to the petrol station. Propelled by the energy you collect from the sky!

              And although it has happened slowly and thus many people might not have noticed, in the last decade the price of PV dropped like a rock.

              I don’t understand where people got the stupid ass idea that solar/wind could save the world. There is no such thing, and no such promise. Its a false expectation. A conversation down a dead end alley with half-wits.
              No thanks, I’m turned out towards the verdant rolling hill with afternoon sun streaming in. Sugar Magnolia.

              And lastly, you can tell your acquaintances that revel in the ‘Texas is Back’ dream, that Texas and adjacent states are about to become major producers/exporters of electricity to a vast region from Chicago to Cleveland to Birmingham and all points between, over the next few decades Courtesy of a bountiful wind and solar resource.
              They can get all excited about that. Listen to a little Bob Wills and Left Frizzell. I do.
              Enjoy
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvX8MijgeW8

            2. I don’t understand where people got the stupid ass idea that solar/wind could save the world. There is no such thing, and no such promise. Its a false expectation.

              I think the term you’re looking for is “straw man”.

              “A straw man (or strawman) is a form of argument and an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent. One who engages in this fallacy is said to be “attacking a straw man”.“

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

            3. OFM,

              Farmlad has commented and others as well about changes in farming practices to reduce carbon emissions from soil in agriculture. I believe in the past you have suggested farming practices are not likely to change, do I have that right? I think you meant especially large industrial farms and believe farmlad agrees with that assessment.

              Any comment would be appreciated, also what about changing practices for raising cattle, I know that is not your area, but no doubt you know more than me.

            4. Dennis,
              You may find the work of Joel Salatin of Polyface Farms in Virginia to be of interest to you.

              http://www.polyfacefarms.com/production/

              Michael Pollan wrote about him in The Omnivores Dilemma.

              He was a guest on Joe Rogan Experience:
              https://youtu.be/7ZVUoQd-P6o?t=555

              A videography:
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-zaAie8UZs

              In short, he maximizes meat yield by maximizing pasture productivity: sequentially rotating animals to avoid overgrazing, and maximize fertilization. 10x the productivity, supposedly.

            5. In Peru apparently they raise/eat guinea pigs. There are plenty of sources of protein and there’s also the idea of evolution of diet, which reminds me of a carnivorous caterpillar in Hawaii.

              Necessity is the mother of invention.

            6. Thanks Bob. Joel’s work is impressive. Hope many others copy him.

            7. Yes I read Omnivore’s dilemma, I will look into that link, thanks.

            8. Hi Dennis,

              There’s no fast or easy answer possible to such a question, but I can point out a few things I’m sure of, in more general terms that apply across the board.

              One, we will continue to farm about the same way we do now for quite some time, because the technology to do it differently on the grand scale simply isn’t THERE yet, just as the technology to switch over to electric cars wasn’t there ten or twenty years ago.

              We have an emerging but incomplete understanding of how we can do things differently, but the research and development phase needs a lot more time yet and once new options are seriously and truly available to the industry, it’s going to take years for the producers to switch over, and a ton of money, up front, to make the transition.

              There’s going to be a hell of a problem analogous to the wind and solar industry problem…… everything will have to be paid for up front, whereas the benefits will come in slow but sure over the following decades.

              I don’t see anything out there right NOW that will work for a typical farmer the same way the switch to an electric car can work for a typical driver.

              We’re locked in politically, economically, geographically, demographically, and technically to the status quo. The resistance to change is going to make the resistance to going renewable with electricity look like a Sunday School picnic.

              Having said all this, change is possible, and it might eventually be implemented on the grand scale, because it might actually turn out to be more profitable to do old things new ways. Farmers will give up old methods in a flash ( meaning over four or five years, lol) if they see their neighbors getting better results with new methods.

              Change can also come about because society can use a big stick to force it by either fining or subsidizing farmers, or both. We might simply see the production of certain foods outlawed or heavily taxed.

              A heavy tax on beef for instance would have about the same effect on beef consumption as high fuel taxes have on oil consumption in Western Europe.

              I’m sure the typical member of this forum will have no trouble imagining how well that would go over with the American public, lol.

              There are a number of existing and emerging technologies that will enable working farmers to produce more food with less pollution, less environmental degradation, and fewer non renewable inputs such as diesel fuel and mined phosphate fertilizers, etc.

              The most promising of these technologies are genetic engineering of crop plants and maybe domestic animals on the one hand, and new generation chemical and biological pest control methods on the other.

              The possibilities in both instances are mind blowing.
              We may eventually have perennial wheat for instance which could mean we wouldn’t have bare soil exposed more than one year in ten maybe, when it’s time to rotate out wheat for some other crop for a while.

              We’ve been spraying wheat or rye planted to add carbon and hold the soil and water with herbicides and directly planting the next crop without plowing for decades now.
              We can eventually have that small grain cover crop genetically engineered to kill itself on schedule, lol, and drill that next crop in without needing any herbicide.

              We can eventually have biological pest control methods good enough that we won’t ever have to use any nasty or persistent chemical to control pests such as alfalfa weevils or Japanese beetles.

              Most of what’s being promoted now as better technology, can and does work, at least under optimal conditions but these new methods simply aren’t economically feasible under current conditions for most farmers most of the time.

              I could run my small place using a sophisticated crop rotation system growing various vegetables and grain in small quantities and in small fields, etc……. but I wouldn’t have a prayer of turning a profit. The market for my production of such a variety of crops in such small quantities simply isn’t THERE.

              I can’t even sell a TON of apples, absolutely first quality in every respect, to a chain supermarket. They won’t buy anything from a local farmer, as set in stone policy, except in a few cases when corporate management allows a store manager to buy just enough of some particular item to post a sign saying it’s from a LOCAL farmer, lol.

              I could go on all day.

              The people who post stuff on You Tube claiming to get miraculous results are generally full of shit…. especially when they say they’re getting twice or better the results of other farmers in the local area.

              IF they were, and there were no hidden strings attached, all the other local guys would be switching in a flash.

              The simplest of hidden strings is such a farmer using tons of manure or grass clippings on his own place…… pretty much hogging the entire local supply, lol, without explaining where everybody else is supposed to find his own supply of manure.

              Manures are awesome, if you have them and you have land to use them on…… but manure is a labor intensive input, and a ten ton truck load of manure isn’t any better, in terms of NPK content, than a pickup truck load of ten ten ten. You can’t haul it very far without the hauling costing more than it’s worth in terms of nutrients.

              But I can foresee a time when maybe sewage treatment plants separate out a highly concentrated sludge that can be affordably hauled a considerable distance, or maybe even delivered out thru the nearby countryside in some instances via pipeline. Right now this would be prohibitively expensive, but it’s nevertheless technically feasible today.

              Yogi sez predictin’s hard, ‘specially the future.

              Insofar as beef production in particular is concerned, I’m an obsolete as a Model T in terms of having a good grasp of what might or might not be possible.

              One thing appears to be set in stone. We will likely always be able to feed out cows in close confinement on highly concentrated rations cheaper than we can raise them on grass, so long as we can afford to produce corn or any other grain plus soybeans or some other high protein supplement at low cost, because cows ( steers) grow so fast when confined and fed all they can eat of such a ration.

              Raising a cow or steer on grass is cheaper, true, but only if you HAVE lots of pasture, and we don’t have enough land to raise beef on grass by the millions, the way we raise them on corn, which turns off several times the nutrients per acre. Putting weight on a little at a time means more feed is consumed just keeping the animal alive than increasing it’s weight.

              There’s a good bit of research underway that might or might not result in lowering the methane emissions associated directly with the bovine digestive system.

              But if any real progress is being made in this area, I’m unaware of it, not that I’m in a position to access the research, or even to evaluate it, so far as that goes.

              It’s all about microbiology which is way above my pay grade. My impression is that so far it’s all smoke and damned little fire, or maybe even something along the lines of the clean coal myth, all hype and hardly any reality.

            10. A minor point: diesel fuel can be a renewable resource. In fact Rudolf Diesel designed his engine so that farmers could produce their own tractor fuel.

            11. James,

              A net energy loss for that process or at best breakeven.

            12. Dennis,
              In Rudolf Diesel’s time, the energy inputs would have been renewable. And, farmers could do that again, using PV to provide energy inputs.

            13. NickG,

              The point was that from a primary energy perspective the process may yield little net energy. Probably looking at things from a primary energy perspective does not make sense. The main factor is conversion of energy to work. From that perspective, using a tractor powered by biodiesel may be higher in net exergy than the plow driven by horses or other draft animals.

              If that’s what you mean, I agree.

            14. Yes, that’s part of what I had in mind.

              Another is that a focus on net energy is a bit misleading. Other things are more important, such as

              1) the much greater use value of liquid fuel vs other things such as natural gas (the primary energy input to ethanol other than the corn, used for drying) or electricity. And,

              2) the value of local production to allow recirculation of money in the local economy and short and resilient supply lines.

              It’s striking that the Model T was also designed to run on biofuel (ethanol).

    2. the best place for solar is above the atmosphere. 24/7 production.

      But who controls the microwave transmission to Earth will have in their hands some very powerful weapons.

      So we won’t do that .

      In the meantime I’ll keep looking out for some good storage solutions because of the well known disadvantages of solar on the ground.

      And hopefully that will be before we burn all those valuable hydro carbons for fuel instead of putting them to better use.

      For those who think I’m anti solar / wind you are wrong , FF will not last for ever and it looks like in my life time that we’ll have major shortages of them . soon.

      Of course if really are daft as brush we could always figure out how to liberate all that CO2 from calcite …….. ( Venus’s atmospheric CO2 is approx the same as the CO2 held in calcite rocks on Earth but a lot of you know that already.)

      Forbin

      1. 1367/1000 Sunny cloudless. What’s not to like? Just thermal management and transmission.

    3. So which is it Gone Fishing?
      Very misinformed opinion presented repeatedly as fact.
      Or intentionally misleading, for the purpose of a propaganda campaign?

      1. It’s a fantastic day here. Cloudy, no wind, pouring rain. Everything greening up, flowers all over. Heat wave coming , but not here yet.
        Found a nice population of pitcher plants growing nearby. Heard there is another population down the road from me.

        Are you a parasite or a symbiote?

        “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand amid other grains of sand, which the wind stirs up at will.”

        Gustave Le Bon

  2. From Popular Mechanics:

    “Ninety million years ago, Antarctica was home to a thriving rainforest— even during extended periods of darkness in winter.

    According to a paper published in Nature, the “mid-Cretaceous period was one of the warmest intervals of the past 140 million years, driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (CO2) of around 1,000 parts per million (ppm) by volume.” That’s in comparison to the contemporary global average which floated around 407.4 ppm in 2018”.

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a32084528/antarctica-rainforest/

  3. DSM and Lightyear to scale the commercialization of integrated solar roofs for EVs

    The partnership aims to integrate solar-powered roofs in a variety of electric vehicles, including cars, vans and buses, thus enabling users to charge their vehicle directly with clean energy. The companies are teaming up to assess the market, starting with pilot projects for customers from the automotive and public transport sector, where the integration of a solar roof could represent a smart investment.

    The global EV market was valued at $160-plus billion in 2019; and is projected to reach $800-plus billion by 2027 according to international market assessments from Bloomberg, IDTechEx and TIME. To accelerate this growth, the EV industry now needs to overcome the twin hurdles of limited range and grid-dependency.

    The alliance between Lightyear and DSM addresses this need by enabling various EVs to increase their range through energy harvested directly from the sun. The integration of a solar roof is expected to be a good investment in multiple EV market segments.

    https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/05/20200515-dsm.html

    1. I hope that if they do commercialize this, that they think ahead and make the equipment removable for reuse, once the vehicle is trashed.

      Modern photovoltaics have a very long life span. For example, I have 20 on my roof that are 330W Panasonics with a warranty guaranteed 90.76% residual efficiency at 25 yrs.
      Degradation/yr for yr 2-25 is warrenteed at 0.26%, or less.
      After 25 years, you may get another 25 of useful life.
      For example a 39 yr old Kyocera panel in New Hampshire was measured to have output of 57% of its brand new capacity,

      1. 50 years of life?

        How old do you think the Universe is?

        How long can Industrial Civilization last? When you can buy high tech products manufactured by high tech means?

        The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030. After more than a century of strong growth — energy production per capita peaked in 1979. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an ‘epidemic’ of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide

        http://dieoff.com/page234.pdf

        As if moving from energy source to energy source – without considering the base – will prolong Industrial Civilization, I can’t properly reply to you. Good Luck.

        1. Its hard to get through your manner of speech, but I think you are saying once again, that solar energy cannot save civilization from Overshoot, and an overreliance on industrialization.
          If so, I agree. And any such argument is irrelevant in my book.

          Once again, I take the stance that when oil runs short in the next decade or two,
          you are going to wish you lived in a region that took developing alternatives seriously.
          ” I can’t properly reply to you.” Thats entirely fine with me. In fact, its my preference.

          After reading your other statements, I have decided to Ignore you Tim. Adios.

          1. Too many only look at a 1-stop solution, be it solar, recycling, birth control etc. They then declare that it will not work because of all the other things they did not mention. This is bullshit. What is needed is to apply all of them. Solar or recycling etc is just one of the tools that are needed.

            NAOM

            1. Agree.
              And its a false hope or expectation to think that an energy technology or source is going to cure population overshoot, or poor decision making by this species.

            4. I’m beginning to think of my old buddy and little helper HB as a fine fellow indeed, lol.

              Biden is going to win.

              Hillary lost because she was the worst possible candidate.
              The orangutan is going to lose THIS time because IT’S the worst possible candidate.

              You don’t run the most hated person associated with your party as your nominee for high office.That’s just everyday common sense.

              I’ve not mentioned it in a while, but now I’m VERY happy that the orangutan is the most hated politician associated with the R’s and he’s going to head up the R ticket, lol.

            5. 1688 Tons of material to build just 1 windmill

              “Clearly wind turbines aren’t renewable when you consider the vast amounts of material and energy required.

              As you’ll see in 47 Reasons why wind power can not replace fossil fuels , a 2 MW wind turbine actually weighs 1688 tons. 1300 tons concrete, 295 tons steel, 48 tons iron, 24 tons fiberglass, 4 tons copper, .4 tons neodymium, .065 tons dysprosium and more (Guezuraga 2012; USGS 2011).

              And 2 MW is puny. Imagine what these must weigh:…”

              Hick’s MicroPsyop

              “After reading your other statements, I have decided to Ignore you Tim. Adios.” ~ Hickory

              Tim, be flattered by Hick’s (hackneyed) goofy-cheesy little personal micro-psyop.

            6. How much does a coal plant weight?

              And it needs more than 1000 tons of coal a day to work – and spits out hundreds tons of heavy metal contamined ashes.

              A good deal?

              Or a clean gas plant. How much wells must be fracked each month to feed it?

              Together with lots of pipelines / coal trains, special ships weighting 100.000 tons and more. 100.000 tons and they even don’t produce energy – they just transport the stuff.

            7. You appear to have committed at least two logical fallacies.

            8. “Too many only look at a 1-stop solution, be it solar, recycling, birth control etc. ” ~ notanoilman

              Ya, solar panels and birth control. Totally similar operations. LOL

            9. Caelan is our resident idiot.

              We need him for comic relief, if nothing else, and to remind us just how IGNORANT the average or typical man or woman on the street IS, in terms of understanding ANYTHING to do with physical reality even at the A B C level of SEE DICK RUN. SEE SPOT RUN. SEE JANE RUN.

              If there’s ever been a good argument for a literacy test for voters, Caelan is IT.

            11. I’m fine Cealan. I’m sticking to my old handle here, OFM, because this site is the home of the handful of old TOD days still posting together.

              I’m hoping you’re fine too.

              You may want to link some of my other comments on other sites to this one. Feel free.

            12. ROFL.
              Sadly though this was all set in motion before we were born. Now we get to experience the reduction of previous momentum as ever increasing frictions enter the system and ever diminishing returns become the norm.

            13. Gonefishing:

              Great comment – Great Observation.

              It is not as if the Universe – in the greater context of time – is experiencing this event – it is the Humans who exist on Planet Earth.

              The ever expanding Universe dues not care one bit about the survival of the Human species upon Planet Earth.

            14. As far as we actually know, life is unique to Earth. We should treat it and life as the most precious thing in the universe. Why go looking for alien life when we have lobsters, insects, and tardigrades (to name a few). We really don’t understand our own planet and it’s life. Exploration should be here.
              Humans have the capability to be the caretakers instead of the destroyers of life. Breaking the addictions of electro-mechanical society will be tough, but people can be tough.

          2. No doubt, squandering limited resources on advanced technology will mitigate the problem and allow the Boomers to continue in their lifestyle.

            sarc/on.

        2. Tim E,

          The important energy is the work provided by energy sources plus useful heat energy, a transition to wind, solar and hydro, reduces energy needs. Many of the predictions of that paper after 2000 did not pan out. Compare chart below with figure 4 from the Duncan paper.

          1. Great graph. The future is so bright – I gotta wear shades!

            Thanks Dennis!

            1. Tim E,

              I assume you were being sarcastic. Note also that as fossil fuel depletes and is replaced by wind and solar (biofuels are a bad idea in my view unless they can be produced without destroying the environment) as well as greater energy efficiency from well insulated buildings with tight envelopes and passive solar design with thermal storage heated with air source or ground source (in colder climates) heat pumps.

              Greater access to secondary and post secondary education for young women worldwide is likely to reduce average total fertility rate (TFR) for the women of the World to less than 2.1, possibly falling to as little as 1.5. Note that World TFR fell from 5 births per woman in 1965 to 2.5 Births per woman in 2005.

              See

              https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/WorldPopulation/Projections_2014.html

              and

              https://core.ac.uk/display/82290957?source=2

              chart below from link above (page 185 bottom right).

            2. Dennis –

              Yeah, that was a bit of sarcasm – but I do admire you for being the Eternal Optimist, your talents, sharing, and presenting the other side. At the end of the day, I hope you are right and that I am wrong – and I have been wrong many times before.

            3. Tim E,

              Thanks. I don’t keep track of how often I am wrong, but my wife tells me my track record is nearly perfect (that is I am wrong nearly 100% of the time.) 🙂 Just kidding, sometimes I agree with her, in which case I am of course correct.

              Note that despite my supposed optimism, my viewpoints are based on mainstream science from USGS, IPCC, etc. Very generally if the view points are combined the scenarios such as RCP8.5 are outliers and the only reasonable standard IPCC scenario is RCP4.5, a scenario like RCP2.6 might be feasible with tree planting, better farming practices and a transition to wind and solar power, as well as improved energy efficiency and a demographic transition.

              Perhaps too optimistic, but in my mind perhaps even odds. Difficult to know what the future will bring.

              At link below there is an old excel file from July 25, 2012, I have updated the EIA World C C data to 2019 (data downloaded 5/19/2020) that is the only change I made to update the chart posted below. Of 8 oil shock models in that spreadsheet (using Paul Pukite’s oil shock model) with two URR assumptions for World C C (2560 Gb and 2795 Gb) and 4 models for each URR assumption (different future extraction rate assumptions after 2011), only 1 of 8 models had oil output higher than actual in 2019, so 87.5% of my “predictions” were too pessimistic eight years ago.

              It is far from clear to me that I am an optimist, based on the chart below.

              https://sites.google.com/site/dc78image/files-1

              see also my post from July 25, 2012 and note in the final chart of that post where I leave out the only scenario (2795 Gb-high) that has proved a bit higher than actual output through 2019. At the time I believed that scenario was just too high to be realistic, I guess that was correct in hindsight (at least through 2019), but all 7 scenarios presented proved too low in 2019 compared to 2019 average annual output of 83 Mb/d. Link to post below

              http://oilpeakclimate.blogspot.com/2012/07/further-modeling-for-world-crude-plus.html

              Click on chart for larger view.

            4. Clearly – you are a mathematical genius – I am not. I admire you for that. I cannot do what you do – but I recognize the concepts.

              Mathematics can predict the future – Agreed – but Humans throw a wrench into the machinery.

              Can a Human Being live on computer chips?

              It takes Industrial Farming and a lot of “illegal workers” working on subsidence wages to maintain Industrial Civilization.

              I visited the Oregon Basin and the Bakken in 2015 – *WOW* something to see.

              Skilled People – lots of high tech stuff dependent upon a lot of lower hierarchy People. Willing to do the job for less $$$.

              Gotta get paid – gotta eat – today – the massive Industrial Farms required to feed Industrial Civilization require massive inputs of POL resources, cheap illegal labor, and massive amounts of debt money – which can push future demand into the present.

              But the Phoenix always arises from the ashes. And I may be wrong -the future of the Jetsons is always the promised future.

              But right now – wrong or right – your mathematical models do not allow for the Lockdowns and economic distress incurred by Covid19. And I am just pointing this out –

              It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

              ― Yogi Berra

              Thanks Dennis for your thoughts and research. Always amazing.

            5. Tim E,

              Thank you. I definitely did not foresee the pandemic in 2012. In the other thread I posted a couple of scenarios for what might happen with the current crisis, but you are right that predicting human behavior is difficult.

              Below I show the old models from 2012 (best guess or medium scenario for 2600 Gb and 2800 Gb URR) and more recent models (low, high, and medium) with URR of 2850 Gb. Of course the possible future scenarios are infinite in number, so impossible to know what happens for 2020 and later.

      2. “once the vehicle is trashed”

        Hickory, this might make you feel a little better.

        “The automobile is the most recycled consumer product in the world — 95 percent of all vehicles are reclaimed. The rate far exceeds the numbers for recycling giants such as newspaper (74 percent), aluminum cans (51 percent) and glass (22 percent). And much of the reclaimed material winds up back in new cars: Coffee-stained carpeting becomes air-cleaner assemblies, and chewed-up tires morph into brake pedals and floor mats.

        After a car gets torn into bits by one of Fritz Enterprises’ shredding facilities, conveyor belts move the scrap past huge magnets to extract the steel. What’s left is dumped into piles of “zorba” (nonferrous mix) that are taken to Huron Valley Steel’s processing plant in Belleville, Mich. A high-tech flotation process sorts out the “twitch” (aluminum) from the rest of the debris, which is exported to cheap labor markets such as India and China for hand sorting.”

        https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a1481/4213384/

        1. From the article:

          “A short distance away, employees at the Big Three automakers toil on assembly lines, spending hours to build cars that the crusher will eventually destroy in seconds”.

          Industrial Civilization powers Industrial Civilization in an endless stream of input/output which will never cease due to the Earth producing endless supplies of abiotic oil. on.

          Circular reasoning (Latin: circulus in probando, “circle in proving”; also known as circular logic) is a logical fallacy in which the reasoner begins with what they are trying to end with. The components of a circular argument are often logically valid because if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true. Sarcasm ON

        2. HB,
          I’m going to take an alternative viewpoint regarding putting a solar panel on the vehicle roof-
          These days you can get a system installed on a building roof with a price under $750/ 330W panel. This includes all installation labor, electrician, wiring, grid interconnect fee, permitting, inverter, etc. That is what I spent, so I know its real world numbers.

          It seems to me that the money is better spent putting that equipment on the roof of the house, business or carport, where it can stay and crank out power for 30-50 years in an optimal sunny location, rather than on top of a vehicle.

          I suppose if I was going to put the money into the vehicle, I’d rather spend it on a bigger battery pack, then on a PV panel on the roof.
          Just some considerations to take into account.

          btw- now that I have two years output data on my system, the actual payback time in avoided grid electric bill on my system (without even considering avoided gasoline cost), is just under 5 1/2 years. The next 3 plus decades is gravy.

          1. Hickory you make a good valid point. For myself, the vehicle sits in the garage during the daylight hours 80 to 90 percent of the time. But that’s not the norm. Most don’t have or use shelter for their vehicle or have a home for panels.

            The ability for the vehicle to recharge it’s self could also have a lot of emergency advantages or for some could eliminate the need to charge off the grid.

            I believe this technology needs to be advanced. I wouldn’t be surprised that the cost to integrate solar into vehicles during the manufacturing process ends up a lot less than your costs.

  4. I wonder if Tesla might start giving away its cars for free. There may be ways of making money doing this.

    First, Tesla is already using its million or so sold cars to collect data on roads and driving behavior, and training its self driving software with that data. That is valuable, and works a little like Google: Google gives you free search in exchange for the information they gather based on the choices you make. But of course Google just delivers a website, and Tesla has to deliver a physical car, so Tesla can’t afford to give the cars away just for the data.

    Another problem is that self driving is not cash-flow relevant, so even if it were profitable “in the long run”, it can’t be done right now. They might come up with other ways of generating cash from the data, such as traffic prediction or advertising. I doubt they will have ads on the Tesla dashboard before the cars are self driving. So for the time being at least the data isn’t valuable enough to pay for a free car.

    But Tesla is also in the battery business, and they are thinking about entering the utility business. In fact they have already applied for a license to sell electricity in the UK. Batteries are the key components of EVs, and Tesla is as much a battery company as a car company. Or at least it’s moving that direction.

    When you compare the price of the Model 3 to the Power Wall, the results are surprising. The car is $35K for 50 KWh, or about $700/KWh. The Power Wall ist roughly $500 per KWh, though that includes a inverter. But it seems like the non-battery part of the car is only worth about $10K.

    So Tesla could theoretically sell you the car for $10K but retain ownership of the battery. In exchange you would have to agree to keep the car plugged in a certain number of hours a day, so they could charge it. Then Tesla could sell you the electricity you use to power the car. The electricity would come from the grid, be stored in the battery and be supplied on demand to the car. If they think they can make more than $10K selling you electricity in the lifetime of the car, they might give you the car for $1 the way the phone company sells smart phones for $1.

    That’s fine, but somehow the batteries have to be paid for. Consider the following: Tesla sold a huge battery pack called the Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia for $90 million (AUS). The utility made all the money back within months. The profit came from grid arbitrage, buying electricity when it is cheap and selling when it is expensive, and Telsa provided the software to make it possible.

    That means that the agreement with the car customer to keep the batteries Tesla owns hooked to the grid could be extremely valuable to Tesla.

    Right now the cars and plugs are not designed to engage in arbitrage. Technically this would be easy to implement, and has already been demoed by Nissan. Tesla now has a million cars on the road, with maybe 70 KWh of battery per vehicle, or a total of 70 GWh of capacity worldwide. But it isn’t technically ready to use this vast potential for anything but operating the cars. The company also has a battery business with the ability to engage in arbitrage, but this business and tech is currently separate from the car business.

    This may sound crazy, but look at it the other way around: For decades the car industry has been the main enablers of the oil industry, but the oil industry has been much more profitable. And every dollar you spend on fuel is a dollar you could have spent on car payments. Cars have become so low margin that financing and spare parts are the profit centers, even when oil companies were selling $40 oil for $120. Giving away the car might not be such a bad deal if you can make money on energy.

    1. I have seen this idea reported on recently, and wouldn’t be surprised if some version of it becomes a common mode of vehicle ‘ownership’.
      In fact here is a company up and running with a version of it-
      https://www.steerev.com/

      1. That looks like car sharing, which is already pretty common in Europe at least. EVs are said to make it more attractive by reducing maintenance.

        What I am talking about is getting the car from the energy provider, analogous to the way you can get from the phone from the service provider.

    2. Plan B eh, or is it Z?
      It’s perhaps worth noting that absent from the most recent Tesla 10-K is the word “robotaxi,” of which last April we were promised a million or so by this year. Maybe they could get into food delivery- TeslaEats? The McDonald’s people can throw the burgers in the back seat and it’ll get delivered over to HB’s place without even needing a driver or anything (HB will still have to walk over and get it out of the backseat but I understand Tesla is working on that problem).

      https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/1/21244747/elon-musk-tesla-tweets-shares-sec-settlement-stock

      1. Cool, what next? A machine that can operate the gym equipment to keep me in shape without physical work. It’s a wonderful life. All this is solar powered, right?

      2. “we were promised”
        I’m sure you know Survivor, never give such a statement any credence.

        1. Maybe if we all keep brainstorming we can think of a way for Musk to make more money, er I mean save the planet

          1. Have fun with that.
            I think I’ll save any brainstorming for other purposes.

      3. Tesla really does have a million cars on the road with all the hardware in place for self driving. They work pretty well too, but not well enough. Tesla is using the fleet to gather data they need to train their neural networks. They own these cars but have leased them to customers.

        The data on driver behavior is loaded into Tesla’s data center to train the networks. Once the networks are trained they can be downloaded back to the cars for use there.

        I think the plan is that when the Model 3 leases run out the software will be ready, and then Tesla will own a fleet of self driving vehicles.

        Meanwhile they have a bunch of features the are releasing in steps.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8&t=80s

    1. That is the best anti-carbon news I’ve seen for along time.
      Next maybe we can shut down some airports and return the land to wild status.

      [full disclosure- I own some Zoom stock]

    1. Remember how every year meat growers have to start culling animals because seasonal flue at meat packing plants is killing workers, and is so pervasive that plants have to be shut down, causing the national meat supply to be threatened?

      Me neither, but yeah, it’s just the flu.

      https://www.drovers.com/article/covid-19-impact-packers-reduce-harvests-and-producers-face-crisis

      And here’s an article from Der Spiegel delineating what medical researchers are learning about the destructive effects of CoVid-19, it’s not just about the lungs, and the effects could be long lasting.

      Doctors now have a deeper understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 damages lung tissue. White blood cells discover the virus and attract other immune cells to the site, which attack the infected lung cells and kill them. They leave behind cell detritus, which clog up the alveoli. If the body isn’t able to gain control over the reaction to the infection, acute lung failure looms.

      But other organs can also be damaged as a result of the infection. The more SARS-CoV-2 patients are treated around the world, the clearer it has become just how comprehensive the attack staged by the virus is.

      According to data from China, around 20 percent of patients requiring hospitalization suffer damage to the heart. It remains unclear whether the virus goes after heart muscle cells directly or if damage to the coronary blood vessels is to blame. The blood clotting function is also disrupted, leading to clumps that could result in heart attacks, lung embolisms and strokes.

      The kidneys of some hospitalized patients also come under attack, as evidenced by blood or protein in urine samples. As a result, dialysis machines have had to join ventilators in ICUs devoted to treating COVID-19 patients.

      Doctors have likewise observed brain inflammation and seizures in some patients. The virus apparently advances all the way into the brain stem, where important control centers are located, such as the one responsible for breathing. The virus likely gets to the brain via the mucous membrane inside the nose and the olfactory nerve. This could also be the reason that many patients temporarily lose their sense of smell.

      SARS-CoV-2 can also attack the digestive tract, with patients complaining of bloody diarrhea, nausea and abdominal pain.

      Doctors have also reported a possible link between COVID-19 and a rare blood vessel syndrome in children called Kawasaki Disease. In Britain, the disease has even killed a few children who became infected with SARS-CoV-2. The disease involves the inflammation of blood vessels throughout the body and can damage the heart.

      Doctors now believe that SARS-CoV-2 attacks tissue and organs virtually everywhere in the body. And the disease can also apparently leave behind long-term damage. Chinese researchers have examined the blood of patients and found that even after the infection has passed, certain blood values remain abnormal for an extended period. Despite the virus no longer being present in the body, for example, their livers still don’t exhibit normal functionality.

      The lungs, too, likely suffer lasting damage in severe cases. “When inflammation does not subside with time, then it becomes essentially scarring in the lungs, creating long-term damage,” says Mortman, the doctor from George Washington University Hospital.

      It is still too early for a comprehensive understanding of the long-term consequences of COVID-19. But doctors are familiar with cytokine storms and acute lung failure from other severe infections. Some of the survivors of the first SARS epidemic, for example, experienced limited lung functionality for up to 15 years after the illness.

      https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/what-the-coronavirus-does-inside-the-body-a-03651b1c-3fd4-441b-aac8-fa49fdeacbd6

      1. COVID19: Are ventilators killing people?
        Intubation and ventilation were billed as the only way to treat Covid19 patients in the early days of the outbreak, but now some medical professionals are questioning the practice.

        “Simply put: if you take people with severe heart problems, cancer, AIDs, diabetes or other dangerous health issues, and you put them on a mechanical ventilator the moment they exhibit the symptoms of a flu-like illness, you will kill a substantial portion of them.

        Perhaps it is not surprising, then, that according to this article 66% of UK Covid19 patients put on ventilators are dying. A recent study found that, in New York, 88% of ventilated Covid patients died. In Italy it was over 81%, in Wuhan it was 86%.

        Conversely, South Korea has reported good early results treating Covid19 patients with other forms of oxygen therapy, or ‘non-invasive ventilation‘.

        The question arises: If ventilators are not recommended for respiratory infections, may do more damage than they prevent and are less effective than non-invasive ventilation, why are they being so widely used?

        Well, one possible reason is that, according to the WHO guidelines, non-invasive ventilation could contribute to the spread of the virus via ‘aerosolisation’. This is repeated in guidelines from the CDC, ECDC and other national institutions.

        The UK’s NHS goes one step further again, with their March 19th protocol actually calling mechanical ventilation the ‘preferred’ option over non-invasive ventilation or other oxygen therapies.

        This leaves wide open the possibility that hospitals are using treatments known to cause harm, simply to avoid the hypothetical spread of the virus.”

        Virus of Mass Destruction

        “Many appear to believe that this virus is some sort of Alien-Terrorist Death Flu (or weaponized Virus of Mass Destruction) that will kill you the second you breathe it in.

        This is not surprising at all, because, according to the official narrative, its destructive powers are nearly unlimited. Not only will it obliterate your lungs, and liquidate all your other major organs, and kill you with blood clots, and intestinal damage, now it causes ‘sudden strokes in young adults’, and possibly spontaneous prostate cancer, and God knows what other medical horrors!

        According to all the ‘scientists’ and ‘medical experts’ (i.e., those that conform to the official narrative, not all the other scientists and medical experts), it is unlike any other virus that has ever existed in the history of viruses.

        It certainly doesn’t follow the typical pattern of spreading extensively for a limited period, and then rapidly dying down on its own, regardless of what measures are taken to thwart it, as this Israeli study would seem to indicate.

        Also, ‘we have no immunity against it’, which is why we all have to remain ‘locked down’ like unruly inmates in a penitentiary until a vaccine can be concocted and forced onto every living person on earth [enter billionaire Bill Gates].

        Apparently, this mandatory wonder vaccine will magically render us immune to this virus against which we have no immunity (and are totally unable to develop immunity), which immunity will be certified on our mandatory ‘immunity papers’, which we will need to travel, get a job, send our kids to school, and, you know, to show the police when they stop us on the street because we look like maybe we might be ‘infected’. ”

        8 MORE Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

        “All those we have examined so far had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or severely obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease. The virus was the last straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak […] Covid-19 is a fatal disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a predominantly harmless viral infection.” ~ Dr Klaus Püschel, German forensic pathologist and former professor of forensics at Essen University and current director of the Institute of Forensic Medicine at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Der streit ums richtige Mas, Hamburger Morgenpost, 3rd April 2020
        *
        “In quite a few cases, we have also found that the current corona infection has nothing whatsoever to do with the fatal outcome because other causes of death are present, for example, a brain haemorrhage or a heart attack. [Covid19 is] not particularly dangerous viral disease […] All speculations about individual deaths that have not been expertly examined only fuel anxiety.” ~ Dr Klaus Püschel, Von den Toten lernen für die Lebenden, Hamburger AbendBlatt, 2nd April 2020

        1. https://off-guardian.org/

          OffGuardian was launched in February 2015 and takes its name from the fact its founders had all been censored on and/or banned from the Guardian’s ‘Comment is Free’ sections.

          Our editors & admins are based in the US, UK & Europe…

          1. Congrats that you figured that out for yourself and what OG obviously makes no secret about. Here’s a gold star emoji for you: ?

            Perhaps you’ve also looked a little into their cited references, or that you realize by now that you have some guy named Donald Trump looking sort of like he’s helping to make decisions along with his team that affect your and others’ lives, possibly on your dime and without your consent.

            The New Adventures of Pinocchio

            “He’s Pinocchio
            What a happy lad
            Since the day
            He lost his strings
            He can walk and talk and fly
            (Do anything I try)
            He can dance
            Since a tune
            Play a flute
            (Do anything I try)…”

            1. When I read something I consider the source, Off Guardian is mostly garbage, if one lives in the post truth sphere, one can use it as “source” of misinformation, I suppose.

            2. I’m not going to bother niggling with you over some site are you kidding?
              If you want to blow your life and time with that kind of thing, have at it. There are plenty of ways to do it both on and offline.
              (Besides, I have my doubts you’re as interested in truth as you may think.)

              Incidentally, sometimes all we have to go on is intuition (and science of course often begins with and depends on it), such as if we don’t have some luxuries like, say, time, peer review, or an ethical government (or sane and stable society) that, along with its (corporate/group/individual) ‘assets’, can suppress that kind of thing and spirit. That’s why I mention it just above.

              Science can be garbagey and inappropriate in some contexts, and of course Pinocchio above is about lies and cutting one’s strings.

        2. Caelan, normally I view you as an irritant I can ignore, but this stuff you’re posting is pissing me off.
          First: there is no synthesis here. What’s your point?
          Second, all the viewpoints seem to be from contrarians and morons. Oh…that’s right…they were banned. There might have been a reason for that.
          Third: Putting 3 different, unrelated points is also bad form. If you want to discuss a point, post it separately.

          To the content:
          COVID19: Are ventilators killing people?
          No. They are generally used as a last resort: the Doctors believe you will die if you don’t go on. If you put the worst cases on ventilators as a last resort- the sickest of the sick- a lot of them will die.

          Virus of Mass Destruction
          This is just fact-free ranting. Why did you post it?

          8 MORE Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

          From Poynter.org: (https://www.poynter.org/?ifcn_misinformation=a-viral-post-on-facebook-shows-a-quote-of-a-forensic-doctor-who-allegedly-said-that-not-a-single-healthy-person-died-of-covid-19)

          2020/04/06 | Germany
          Mostly false: A viral post on Facebook shows a quote of a forensic doctor who allegedly said that not a single healthy person died of COVID-19.

          Explanation: In interviews the forensic doctor Klaus Püschel claimed that most of the patients who died – in the city of Hamburg – had previous diseases. But he didn’t say that not a single healthy person died. Statistics show that also healthy people can get very sick. Further, the autopsies in Hamburg revealed that COVID-19 was the death cause in almost all cases.

          (I will admit that I am unable to check the quote against the original German.)

          So….sometimes there’s a reason that these guys were banned.

          1. Hi Lloyd,
            You start off with a personal attack (which I’ve never done with you and always treated you with respect hereon) because you disagree with what I’ve posted, and then garnish it with some sort of apparent cherrypick of something that nevertheless appears to support the doctor (and corrects the apparent viral post on Facebook that misrepresents the doctor), and some sort of website that you admit you nevertheless again cannot check the quote against?

            Have we got that right?

            “So….sometimes there’s a reason that these guys were banned.” ~ Lloyd

            And you know what those reasons are, right? Or is that just rhetorical flourish for effect here and you don’t really care?

            I have pasted your reference directly from site below with my bold highlights and suggest you read it again:

            Mostly false: A viral post on Facebook shows a quote of a forensic doctor who allegedly said that not a single healthy person died of COVID-19.

            Explanation: In interviews the forensic doctor Klaus Püschel claimed that most of the patients who died – in the city of Hamburg – had previous diseases. But he didn’t say that not a single healthy person died. Statistics show that also healthy people can get very sick. Further, the autopsies in Hamburg revealed that COVID-19 was the death cause in almost all cases.

            Important too to note their fine print:

            “This false claim originated from: Facebook

            The #CoronavirusFacts database records fact-checks published since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic and its consequences are constantly evolving and data that was accurate weeks or even days ago might have changed. Remember to check the date when the fact-check you are reading was published before sharing it.”

            1. You may be right in my lack of civility. Sorry.
              However, I stand by my comments on the lack of synthesis and problems with unrelated articles under the same post. I don’t come here to try and figure out what people are thinking from what they’ve been reading. Make your point.

              On to content:
              From the Dr. Klaus Püschel quote in your original post:
              “All those we have examined so far had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or severely obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease. The virus was the last straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak (emphasis mine).

              From the Poynter.org rebuttal:
              Further, the autopsies in Hamburg revealed that COVID-19 was the death cause in almost all cases.
              (emphasis mine).
              You can twist it any way you want, but both things can’t be true. I stand by my post.

            2. Apology appreciated, Lloyd, and thanks.

              First, the articles are all related to COVID19 which was not in response to you anyway, but to Bob.

              Second, the issue with Dr. Klaus Püschel that you referenced via one of my OffGuardian links is not a ‘rebuttal’ against the doctor, but in fact quite the opposite: It’s in regard to someone who apparently misquoted him on a Facebook page (wherein it went viral). It’s an attempt at clarification by a Bianca Hoffmann on Dr. Klaus Püschel’s behalf.

              I retrieved the full translation of it if you want to see for yourself: here.

              Incidentally, where are you in Canada if you don’t mind my asking. I’m in Nova Scotia.

            3. Lloyd,

              Sometimes it is not worth the trouble to get into it with Caelan because he is very creative at twisting things around with partial quotes and bold faced print. It is a waste of time to go down that rabbit hole, in my opinion.

            4. Truth Antibodies

              The irony is that Lloyd appears to have misinterpreted/misunderstood the issue above with Dr. Klaus Püsche and aid, in his minuscule way, to help infect society.

              Certainly some of us are aware of how falsehoods, some disguised as truths, can quickly cascade out of control through their repetition and infect society, rather like how a virus might trick a cell’s receptors to gain entrance and reproduce, rendering many, ill.

              That Dr. Klaus Püsche, through a colleague, appears in essence to have been forced to issue a statement of clarification seems curiously trivial to either of you. It’s curious in part because Lloyd brought it up and with ‘great muster’, you called my site-source-in-question, ‘garbage’, and we have this CoVID-19 issue.

              So maybe we have a bigger problem with truth than we realize…

          2. Lloyd,

            That is called a gishgollup, just a bunch of unrelated stuff that is difficult to respond to. If you pick one point to respond to, they will claim that you did not address the other 99 things in their comment.

            1. Lloyd,

              Actually, I think it’s Dennis’ drunken attempt at doing the Twist by throwing a funky term like gish gallop that’s both misspelled and doesn’t actually fit the beat.

              It’s amusing, though.

              Layers of Obscurity

    3. Yep, and we are still on a long march to herd immunity.

      66% population exposure to Covid-19 equals herd immunity (roughly)

      330 million USA population x 66% = 198 million people

      I predict the eventual mortality rate (barring any breakthrough medical treatment)
      will end up at 0.7% when all is said and done.

      0.7% mortality rate times 198M = 1.4 million deaths USA

      note-
      1. As of today the USA mortality rate is 5.9% of official known cases, so I may be underestimating the final mortality rate.
      2. This scenario could be interrupted by the development of an effective vaccine before the herd immunity pathway has run its course.

        1. Currently the USA death count is doubling at 29 days.
          We are on track to hit 100,000 deaths before June 1st.
          If the same rate of growth continues- then we could be at 250K by mid summer.
          I’ll go on record with 250K by Labor day, barring any breakthrough treatment.
          Submit your bets to- #payhickorylotsofmoney.com

            1. Europe and North America is already in the second wave considering how we now know there were people infected back in December and January, before the media started paying attention to the virus.

            2. Studebaker,

              BS.

              A few cases is not a wave. No doubt for the 1918 pandemic there were a few cases before the first wave in the Spring of 1918.

            3. Gone fishing,

              Those projections change over time, currently about 147k, a few weeks ago the projection was about 60k. No idea if it will increase or decrease in the future, much depends on human behavior which is difficult to predict. In 1918, the second wave in the fall was far worse than than the initial wave, human behavior may not have changed much in the intervening 102 years. We will see.

          2. FUDding The Sheeple

            Depending on how the sheeple respond, once this ‘virus lockdown/coralling/branding/indoctrinating’ is finally deemed unnecessary by certain governpimps, they can then move toward locking down/coralling/branding/indoctrinating their sheeple in other ways, under the pretext of ‘safety’ and ‘security’ of course, and via FUD, against other ‘dangers’.

            “Baa-aa… Baa-aa…“

    4. 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

      “Dr Sucharit Bhakdi is a specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.

      What he says:

      We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days. But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every day.

      [The government’s anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous […] The life expectancy of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.

      All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.”

      Coronavirus: Hysteria reaches ‘tipping point’
      Global panic sets in as China moves the diagnostic goal-posts.

      “In Hubei Province, China, where the ‘new’ virus was first diagnosed, and where the vast majority of the cases have occurred, it’s no longer considered necessary to test for the presence of CV antibodies before diagnosing the disease.

      Let’s say that again.

      The epicentre of the so-called new virus outbreak is currently diagnosing new cases of the disease without testing for the virus.

      Instead they are relying on ‘clinical diagnosis’, which is defined as [our emphasis]:

      ‘The estimated identification of the disease underlying a patient’s complaints based merely on signs, symptoms and medical history of the patient rather than on laboratory examination or medical imaging.’

      Which means physicians look at presenting symptoms and make a guess on what is causing them.”

      1. OffGuardian was launched in February 2015 and takes its name from the fact its founders had all been censored on and/or banned from the Guardian’s ‘Comment is Free’ sections.

        https://off-guardian.org/

        1. Yes, imagine people and places that made no secret of that.
          And what might we know, or find out, about The Guardian along that line?
          Well, maybe at the very least, it is less transparent and/or tolerant, such as if it is still deleting and banning with questionable cause.
          But we don’t yet want to jump the gun, certainly not in these apparent times of ‘post-truth’.

          See also here

          1. Any publication is free not to publish material that they believe is total BS.

            If Off-Guardian want to publish that, that’s fine. Just wanted people to be aware the Off_Guardian is in some sense “post truth”, which is kind of similar to “non-fact”.

            1. Peer Review

              While in another recent comment, poetically-speaking, you’re half-amusingly dancing with the funky term, gish gallop, here, you appear to be beating a dead horse named shooting the messenger, with the messenger being Off Guardian.

              Tell you what:

              Take your dick out of your hand and follow through with more than just one of the professionals of the CoVID19-related articles there, then, if you want, make a case here (that’s not as ostensibly inept as Lloyd’s) and so that OG’s folks can read it, should they somehow end up doing so.

              That’s ‘peer review’.

              Maybe then your own site here can, if we agree, be or look less garbagey as you suggest OG is or looks.

      2. It shouldn’t be a full-time job answering Caelan’s bullshit, but it’s a holiday in Canada, so I can.

        Which means physicians look at presenting symptoms and make a guess on what is causing them.”

        This is such crap.
        They are not guessing as to your condition.

        Covid-19 has several unique characteristics that make identification obvious: some of them include the Cytokine storms to the heart, extreme fatigue and long recovery times, early stomach involvement, and atypical headaches, among others.

        If you have enough of these symptoms, they don’t need to test you, because it won’t affect your treatment. Keep in mind that the tests can have false positives and negatives, and varying sensitivity: if you have enough of the symptoms, the doctor’s judgement is roughly equivalent to the test.

        It is also faster. If you are going to do contact tracing, this is a benefit.

        1. This isn’t just about clinically diagnosing for COVID19, but also getting it correct and not missing other diseases in lieu of it.

          Beware of ‘COVID-19 Fog’
          — There’s no better setup for diagnostic error

          “An emergency physician colleague shared this recent experience:

          A 45-year-old healthy male presented to the emergency department with a complaint of palpitations and feeling like he was going to pass out, which began while walking to his car after work. He had had 10 days of worsening shortness of breath, congestion, and generalized malaise, with a negative flu swab at urgent care 4 days ago. His wife had had upper respiratory infection symptoms that began at the same time, but she had been feeling better for several days now. The above presentation in the setting of COVID-19 just beginning to spread through New York state led me to prematurely narrow my differential diagnosis. If it weren’t for the good working relationship I have with my colleagues, the final diagnosis of multiple pulmonary emboli would have been missed entirely. I’m grateful that I was at least aware of the possibility of my own cognitive errors, and that I was open to input from others, which helped me avoid a disastrous outcome in this case.

          When a single diagnosis is top of mind every waking hour and permeates our brains during sleep, there is no better setup for diagnostic error. Self-awareness of our clinical decision-making process and the possibility of diagnostic error is highly relevant in these times. Availability and premature closure are biases every clinician should be aware of during this crisis.“

          1. Caelan,

            A good physician always does a differential diagnosis. This is just good practice of medicine. Pretty basic stuff for anyone who knows health care professionals well.

            1. Dennis,

              What is in part relevant here is the ‘COVID-19 Fog’ issue that the article addresses.

              What is also relevant here and in general are the effects of added pressure on medical, epidemiological and other related professionals (cause of death, etc., statistics and their massaging and media-messaging, etc.) by a toxic and panicked global-industrial society entering increasingly-serious energy, material, social and ecosystem declines.

    1. Good thing to ponder, and the article points out a false premise from the start-
      “Some proponents of the Green New Deal seem to believe that it will pave the way to a utopia of “green growth.” Once we trade dirty fossil fuels for clean energy, there’s no reason we can’t keep expanding the economy forever.”

      Here is the money statement-
      “We need a rapid transition to renewables, yes—but scientists warn that we can’t keep growing energy use at existing rates. No energy is innocent. The only truly clean energy is less energy.”

      Once again, lesser of two evils.

      1. So Humans cannot make a good choice?

        If so – then we deserve to go extinct.

        1. Yes, humans can make good choices but not by excluding them from the list of choices as is mostly being done now.

          1. Gone Fishing,

            Are you talking about using what you have termed in previous comments as “natural methods” for sequestering carbon?

            I would agree those methods should not be excluded, Old Farmer Mac often opines that it is difficult to change industrial farming practices, I would agree eating less industrial meat, or meat in general (though some claim grass fed animals are less harmful to the environment) is likely a good idea. Though controlled hunting of Moose and Deer may not be a problem, as their natural predators no longer can control the herd due to humans killing the predators.

            More trees by planting, reduction of deforestation, and changes in land use and farming to reduce carbon release from soil are all excellent ideas in my opinion. Also a reduction in energy use through greater energy efficiency should be another primary approach. No doubt there is more that can be done, such as permaculture, though scaling those practices up may be difficult in practice. Old Farmer Mac has claimed as much in the past, though farm lad might have other ideas. I have no opinion as I have not delved into the literature.

            1. Hi Dennis,
              I’m still waiting for somebody to show me a permaculture operation that’s not subject to the little doggie pulling back the curtain exposing the wizard for what he is….. smoke and mirrors.

              It works….. but not at industrial scale, and seldom at commercial scale. Lots of land, lots of investment, long payback times, low yields in relation to time and labor involved, etc.

              Nobody is ever going to convert a mid western grain farm into a patchwork of small fields producing a dozen kinds of veggies, nut trees,fruit trees, pasture, etc……. at least not until housing is built on that farm for a couple of dozen people, and somebody convinces them to give up their much more comfortable and prosperous suburban or urban life, etc, and until somehow somebody convinces people that they should be eating all those varied veggies instead of burgers and rib eye.

              Let’s not forget schools, roads, stores, hospitals, cops, etc….. all of which are necessary when you move large numbers of people out into the boonies where the farm land is, lol.

              It’s not just technology. We could eat, permaculture fashion, if we were to put enough work into it, but groceries would again be one of the BIGGEST living expenses, rather than a minor expense.

              The very thought of attempting such a transition brings two people to mind…… Stalin and Chairman Mao. Collectivization and The Great Leap Forward.

              Industrial agriculture is here to stay for as far as the eye can see, in countries such as the USA.

              This is not to say, however, that there isn’t plenty of room for improvements in the way we go about it.

    2. Yet another article promoting renewables myths. The metals listed are not essentials and there are alternatives, not to mention that some of them are being phased out.

      NAOM

      1. The quantity of metals is not the major problem. It is where most people refuse to look, yet so simple.

        2. Gonefishing,

          Enlighten us please. Energy payback time for solar is about 2 years for 1700 kWh per meter squared insolation and a multicrystalline-si PV system. Assuming a 25 year PV system life and 2 year energy payback time and 28% growth gradually decreasing to 10% growth (growth rate falls by 1% each year) and 10% growth continues until wind and solar replace all fossil fuel for electricity production (by 2044) and then the rate of growth equals electricity growth (assumed to be 2.44% per year). Chart below has net energy from solar in this scenario where the 2 year payback energy is deducted from total solar output to give net energy also after 25 years it is assumed that energy is needed to replace the panels. I have assumed no improvement in payback time in the future. The payback energy starts at about 44% in 2019 and falls to 20% in 2044, then it drops in 2045 as rate of growth slows, in any case the net energy grows significantly and this energy will displace coal and natural gas.

          Of course the best approach is to reduce energy use as much as possible, if this is done then electricity consumption will grow more slowly than I have modelled. I agree the best approach is to use less energy, I also agree using nature to reduce carbon in the atmosphere is an excellent approach. All avenues should be utilized to reduce carbon in the atmosphere.

          For reference, 2018 electricity consumption was about 100,000 PJ, net solar output reaches that level in 2046.

          Also note that energy payback for wind is currently less than one year.

          1. Dennis, not the subject I was thinking about, but if you want to discuss PV rates and cumulatives, that’s fine. However, I used 3 year payback since I am in a more average solar insolation region, the 1700 w/m2/annum you declare would be for clear more southerly areas, or high very dry mid latitude regions.

            As far as your projection for PV, doesn’t mean much in isolation. Once you get to covering about half or less of the electric power, storage becomes a necessity (or FF/nuclear backup). Hydro doesn’t have much to grow in most places so it’s not a big storage solution.

            Would like to see the total PV output, the energy needed to build and install storage (batteries might last 10 years) and the energy needed for transmission lines, smart grid, smart appliances, etc. to make this workable. PV does not work in isolation. Right now it uses grid tie or on a small scale battery to make it work.
            Then we can work out if there is any net energy to PV or if it’s just another energy sink since it needs so much high energy infrastructure to make it work even reasonably well as a continuous source of power.
            I have run the numbers, let’s see what you come up with. Might be better to use a logistical expression rather than an aborted exponential. Makes more sense from a production and demand perspective.

            BTW, what will cause the PV to actually go exponential, it’s already low price and it’s not?

            Beside the energy demand of building storage, the cost may be too high. Storage has to get cheap to be competitive, down to $20 per kWh compared to $200 per kWh.
            https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity

            1. BTW, what will cause the PV to actually go exponential, it’s already low price and it’s not?

              Exponential growth is the result of growth being dependent on the current population. For example, diseases can cause an epidemic when infected people infect a fixed number of new victims. As the number of victims grow, the number of new victims grows with it.

              Rooftop solar is well documented to spread by example. That is, the more solar rooftops there are in your neighborhood, the more likely you are to get one yourself.

              Solar also seems to be spreading at the utility level, with utilities and states copying each other.

              Another thing that drive exponential growth is local resources and expertise in installation. The more projects there have been in a given area, the more expertise exists locally, which makes successful new projects more likely.

              None of this is peculiar to solar energy.

            2. Yes, but then you increasingly run into problems with scale and numbers and the piling up of problems with costs and ‘externalities’. Meanwhile, the fossil fuels continue to burn.

              People keep talking about how the planet can only support one hundred million to one billion humans (somewhat arbitrary it seems) and yet, conversations continue about solar panels and wind farms with a planet of 8 billion.

              But maybe these sort of things have already been adequately and effectively addressed and I just missed them. If so, any good links in plain English?

            4. Thanks Dennis. I am in between errands and will look into them later.

            5. Gone fishing,

              Great article, thank you. At the end they suggest $150/ kWh for batteries, would be enough to give about 95% reliability. I think Tesla is already at about $100/kWh for Li-ion and other stationary battery technologies are undoubtedly cheaper than lithium. We can get wind and solar up to 85 or 90% of total load with some overbuilding of capacity, widely dispersed and interconnecyed with HV grid. The grid is already in place in most places, just locate facilities near the existing grid and interconnect points as far as possible. Demand management could be handled by posting electricity prices hourly on a website and consumers could adjust usage manually to save money when supply is short and prices rise.

              The article below has one potential solution for storage

              https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/3/28/21195056/renewable-energy-100-percent-clean-electricity-power-to-gas-methane

              In addition there is potentially geothermal, pumped hydro, and nuclear as well as limited natural gas backup.

              Note that I use 10 % exponential increase as a possible rampup speed in light of the fact that oil output increased at an average rate of 7% per year from 1930 to 1973, in that case the limit was growth in demand for oil. For solar and wind the demand exists and as wind and solar become cheaper than coal and natural gas, I expect a 10% growth rate in solar and wind output is feasible, when most coal and natural gas electrical generation have been replaced (perhaps 85% of electricity generation being from wind and solar) the growth rate slows to whatever the electricity growth rate is until the backup problem is solved by some combination of Power to gas, power to hydrogen, pumped hydro, ev-vehicle to grid, and batteries. We have 15 to 20 years to work the problem and find the lowest cost and most environmentally benign solution.

              On exponential growth of solar output. The rate of growth in solar output from 2011 to 2018 was roughly 30% per year, my model starts with 28% per year, and the rate decreases gradually to 10% per year over an 18 year period.

              One potential change is that natural gas output growth may slow as resources deplete and natural gas prices might rise, in addition the costs for solar power may continue to fall making investments in solar power more attractive.

            6. Gone fishing,

              Revised model that assumes growth in electricity consumption slows dramatically around 2050 (this occurred for Europe and North America around 2005, I assume the rest of the world reaches this point 45 years later, growth stops at around 50,000 TWh per year (or about 118000 PJ per year). This might be too low, but might work with efficiency improvements, ramp of EVs, heat pumps, passive solar for buildings and passivhaus construction standards for all buildings and retrofits of existing buildings.

            8. Guesses Dennis? Plenty of data out there.

              Does not matter a hill of beans Dennis. Yes, PV produces a net energy gain over it’s life. However, once the energy needed to produce, install, maintain and replace all the infrastructure of storage, transmission, distribution, EV production, etc. meant to make the system work is added up the net energy goes negative by several times.
              It’s fun and games to build isolated models, but renewable energy (wind and solar) do not produce enough energy to run and replace their own power system. I mean system, not just panels.
              No matter how cheap the panels get, or the batteries, you cannot get around the thermodynamic demands of smelting and chemical reactions that are the most energetic part of the system. Nor can you get around all the mining and transport or distribution systems. Plus all the computer systems, sensorsmswitches and actuators.

              Just as much of the oil industry is running on charity, the renewable energy system runs on big donations from the fossil fuel system and other energy (nuclear, tree and plant burning).
              This will become very evident as wind, solar, storage and EV’s become a significant part of the energy/transport system.
              It will be solved by changing direction and extreme lifestyle changes.

              To make this clear, the renewable energy system as proposed is incapable of even supporting itself, let alone providing energy for an industrial civilization.

              Well, back to helping my neighbors now. Got to use that energy while it’s still there.

            9. Gone fishing,

              Of the fossil fuel, biofuel and nuclear primary energy utilized in the US in 2019 there was 72% rejected energy (mostly thermal losses not utilized). Of 93.6 Quads of primary energy consumed only 26.2 Quads provided energy services.

              Yes there is much data out there, the actual energy for a particular PV panel will depend on its orientation, location, whether it has tracking, etc. The maps do not give an average so I am estimating by looking at the mapped data. Also many researchers use the 1700 kWh/m2/day as a benchmark, which is why I chose that.

              The transmission infrastructure is in place, batteries are not the only storage solution.

              Much less energy will actually be needed when less is wasted.

              See

              https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2019_United-States.png

              Much of the infrastucture for transmission and distribution is in place.

              Some studies assume the entire system needs to be built from scratch, that is not the World that exists so such studies are not very relevant, in my opinion.

            10. Gone fishing,

              Thanks for the input.

              Couple of articles

              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/

              In this first they get about 30 for EROI for oil when embodied energy of equipment is not considered, including that reduces EROI to roughly 20 (for a relatively high estimate for embodied energy), it is an area that needs further work.

              http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/148748/1/2019_05_22_EROI-2_Author_accepted_manuscript.pdf

              In this second paper they argue that we should only consider end use energy (which for fossil fuels is typically about one third of the primary energy), so an EROI of 25 would become about 8 when switching to the end use energy perspective. For the US fossil fuel end use energy is about 28% of primary energy, in that case and EROI of 25 for fossil fuels falls to about 7. For some fossil fuel such as oil sands the primary energy EROI is about 6, from an end use perspective this would fall to 1.7, so the marginal forms of fossil fuel don’t give us a lot of net energy.

              Another good paper at link below

              https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41247-019-0065-8#additional-information

              This paper points to the problem that during the growth phase, the “industry scale” surplus energy is low, but eventually the industry will reach a steady state and at that point surplus energy rises.

              You are correct that during this growth phase energy will be provided by fossil fuels to allow the growth to occur. To me it seems a logical way forward on the path to reduce fossil fuel use, other avenues such as education to reduce total fertility rate and thus reduce population growth rates to less than zero, and energy efficiency measures must also be utilized, natural methods to sequester carbon also make sense.

              I realized you also included EVs as one of the things needed to make wind and solar work, not really. Do you believe the EVs will utilize more energy than the energy now used to produce ICEV as well as all the oil and related infrastructure that enables oil to be produced, refined, transported and ditributed?

              I am fairly certain that EVs will use substantially less energy over their life cycle than an equivalent fleet of ICEV. Also rail could be converted to electric and rail could be expanded to carry more of long haul freight, more people may use TaaS and with cell phone apps most could be multiple ride (2 or 3 passengers) so trips are reduced, that would increase transportation efficiency and reduce traffic. It also might reduce vehicle ownership and require fewer vehicles, along with reducing energy use. Telecommuting might also reduce transportation energy needs for some types of work.

              Bottom line, energy needs are likely to be reduced significantly, in a wind, water, solar, electric transport (rail and EV ) world.

            11. Don’t know why you changed the subject. Thought you were talking about produced electricity from PV. I was, no burn or water heating involved on the production end. I will try to make it simple. When PC and wind are mostly on their own, they need lots of infrastructure to provide continuous electricity. THE AMOUNT OF SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IS TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF POWER USED. THE ENERGY JUST TO PRODUCE, MAINTAIN AND REPLACE THIS INFRASTRUCTURE IS GREATER BY SEVERAL TIMES THAN THE ENERGY PRODUCED BY THE WIND AND SOLAR.
              There may be ways to use the wind and solar power without much infrastructure but it will be very different than the 24/7 electric we have now. Civilization will be very different also. I am not talking about a small shortfall, I am talking about a major one so no amount of techno hand waving will change this.
              BTW What makes you think I don’t know about the extraneous heat from fossil fuel or that we will need less total energy if we convert to “renewable” power, or that I don’t know a grid already exists? Talking down does not change what you don’t want to hear.

            12. Gonefishing,

              In a previous comment you said:

              However, once the energy needed to produce, install, maintain and replace all the infrastructure of storage, transmission, distribution, EV production, etc. meant to make the system work is added up the net energy goes negative by several times.

              So you mention transmission, but I do not understand what needs to be built there, maybe some connectors, these do not have to be replaced often and are typically included in project costs, part of balance of system cost. Batteries don’t have to be built all at once and are not the only potential storage solution.

              What infrastucture are you talking about? The PV and wind and all components are included in the energy payback time and EROI, see for solar

              http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~relling2/PDF/pubs/life_cycle_assesment_ellingson_apul_(2015)_ren_and_sustain._energy_revs.pdf

              where for multi-crystalline PV systems in 2011-2013, estimates were about 18 for EROI, storage was not included, but that will not be needed as soon as you believe, nuclear, hydro, and natural gas can back up wind and solar until they get to about 90% of average load hours, after that growth slows for wind and solar and the surplus energy produced can be used for power to gas or power to hydrogen, or batteries can be used or vehicle to grid or pumped hydro or what ever combination f all of those that is cheapest.

              Paper below suggests when looking at final energy output fossil fuels have and EROI of about 6.

              http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/148748/1/2019_05_22_EROI-2_Author_accepted_manuscript.pdf

              From that perspective solar and wind are an improvement in EROI.

              In short I disagree with your assessment.

              Cumulative net solar output for my revised solar model from 1990 to 2050 is 1389 EJ or 1.389 million PJ or 378,000 TWh.

              A final point is that when PV and Wind provide most power, say 90% of all power output, there will likely be hydro and nuclear that can provide backup. By that point in time, say in 2050, gross power output from wind and solar will be about 50000 TWh with about 5% of this needed to replace aging infrastructure (growth in power output will have stopped.) Maintainance, repair, and upgrades of existing systems in an ongoing process. With greater efficiency over time, growth in energy output may be slower than I have assumed, for Europe and North America primary energy consumption has been flat since 2005, but that may simply mean that we are importing energy intensive goods. For the World, growth in primary energy use has been about 1.5% per year on average from 2008 to 2018. From 2010 to 2018 the primary energy consumption growth has been fairly linear with an increase of 200 Mtoe annually on average.

            13. Dennis said “storage was not included, but that will not be needed as soon as you believe”
              I agree, as I have said in the past, the most likely scenario will be to use fossil fuels to the bitter end.
              However, I was discussing the proposed build up of “renewable” energy which includes a lot of storage. From my research, a minimum of 8 days of storage is needed to get through weather events (but still not cover the extreme ones). Building and replacing storage is highly energy intensive.
              I will leave it at that since this has just gotten down to hand waving and the nasties are spewing vial all over the site if one even questions their techno- religion.

              Have fun going down the path of no return.

            14. Gonefishing,

              There are some claiming very cheap future costs for Li-ion see

              https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/flow-batteries-struggle-in-2019-as-lithium-ion-marches-on

              excerpt:
              Near end of piece:

              The state of play was perhaps best summed up by Rebecca Kujawa, chief financial officer and executive vice president of finance at NextEra Energy, during an earnings call in October.

              Asked by Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates, whether NextEra had found any storage technologies other than lithium-ion that are worth commercializing, she said: “We always remain technology-agnostic.”

              But she added: “What we continue to see, and what we are currently signing contracts for with our customers, is predominantly lithium-ion. Those producing lithium-ion batteries are investing in manufacturing scale, which is producing significant cost improvements.”

              Kujawa concluded: “In the middle part of the next decade, you’re talking about a $5 to $7 per megawatt-hour adder to get to a nearly firm wind or solar resource, and that’s a pretty attractive price.

              An earlier Vox article you pointed me to suggested $20/kWh for storage, $7/MWh does not seem feasible. NREL is predicting perhaps $150/kWh in 2050. So if that is the best solution, it is expensive.

      2. NAOM,

        Another problem with that analysis is that it fails to mention the reduction of materials and extraction which will result from a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. Not sure what the numbers are.

        1. Yeah, they never tally up how many tons of steel etc going into mining, rail, power plants etc etc and that much of the machinery involved will need replacing over 25 years.

          NAOM

  10. Bottom line – as Jay Hanson said:

    “It’s impossible to know the details of how our rush to extinction will play itself out, but we do know that it is going to be hell for those who are unlucky to be alive at the time”.

    http://jayhanson.org/index.html

    1. Truth Enters A Haunted Funhouse Horror Show

      When we start seeing increasingly weird/baffling/etc. sociogeopolitical/etc. fractures (between/within governments, businesses, professionals etc.) all over the place, and where truth starts looking increasingly like an increasingly-serious casualty in the process (to say nothing of the lives of people), it appears a safe bet to regard it as part of the process of the end-game of global industrial civilization.

      Even if the below is not true, it still speaks to what I’m trying to suggest:

      Study Points To COVID-19 Lab Creation; Lead Author Suggests ‘Forced Selection’ Vs. Genetic Engineering

      Hey look, if we can selectively breed sheep(le), why not viruses?

      All bets might not necessarily be off just yet, but they sure seem to be hitting a randomly-fluctuating dimmer-switch, yes?

      And Halloween is not for a few months yet, but then, over here, some people still have on their Christmas lights.

      1. “The pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 threatens public health worldwide. The viral spike protein mediates SARS-CoV-2 entry into host cells and harbors a S1/S2 cleavage site containing multiple arginine residues (multibasic) not found in closely related animal coronaviruses. However, the role of this multibasic cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. Here, we report that the cellular protease furin cleaves the spike protein at the S1/S2 site and that cleavage is essential for S-protein-mediated cell-cell fusion and entry into human lung cells. Moreover, optimizing the S1/S2 site increased cell-cell, but not virus-cell, fusion, suggesting that the corresponding viral variants might exhibit increased cell-cell spread and potentially altered virulence. Our results suggest that acquisition of a S1/S2 multibasic cleavage site was essential for SARS-CoV-2 infection of humans and identify furin as a potential target for therapeutic intervention.”
        https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1097276520302641?via%3Dihub

        1. Cultured To Evolve

          “…and harbors a S1/S2 cleavage site… not found in closely related animal coronaviruses.” ~ Hightrekker’s link

          Why would that be?

          “…we cloned mutated versions with alterations at the S1/S2 cleavage site… [etc.]” ?

          “…he [Fauci] is lying through his teeth.

          He knows damn well that he and dozens of other scientists–American, European and Asian–have been repeatedly splicing bat-virus genes into human-senstive viruses for decades… ” ~ whynotnow

          “In a separate statement about the research, Petrovsky suggested that SARS-CoV-2 may not have been ‘spliced’ – which would leave fingerprints of genetic manipulation – but was instead ‘cultured’ to evolve.” ~ ZH

          PNAS 2008:

          “Defining prospective pathways by which zoonoses evolve and emerge as human pathogens is critical for anticipating and controlling both natural and deliberate pandemics… The ability to design and recover pathogens reconstituted from synthesized cDNAs has the potential to overcome these obstacles by allowing studies of replication and pathogenesis without identification of reservoir species or cultivation of primary isolates. Here, we report the design, synthesis, and recovery of the largest synthetic replicating life form, a 29.7-kb bat severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus (Bat-SCoV), a likely progenitor to the SARS-CoV epidemic. “

            2. Someone claimed a paper from March 16, 2020 was out of date as I recall.

            3. Someone may need to realize that there are two different, if related, issues; one being about waiting for added up-to-date info on the virus; and the other about related past research.

            4. It is some nasty stuff – bottom line.

              I think that the genetic manipulations produced a Sars virus similar to Herpes simplex – once you get it – and you will – you can’t get rid of it – and eventually it will – at the right moment, re-emerge and kill you.

              The Universe is still eternal and expanding and the fate of Human Beings is inconsequential.

              As Jay Hanson said – for the second time:

              “It’s impossible to know the details of how our rush to extinction will play itself out, but we do know that it is going to be hell for those who are unlucky to be alive at the time”.

      2. Yes – you have shone the light on the culprit.

        But Humans deny it is possible.

        Advanced technology will save the day – but ironically – it is the advanced technology which destroyed the day.

        1. TimE,

          At this point merely speculation. Essentially we don’t know where the virus came from, much of the conspiricy theories are based on an incomplete understanding of the research or publications that are nor peer reviewed. There are millions of these scientists and at present an incomplete understanding of SARS-COV2.

          For peer reviewd analysis see

          https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

          An excerpt:

          Basic research involving passage of bat SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses in cell culture and/or animal models has been ongoing for many years in biosafety level 2 laboratories across the world27, and there are documented instances of laboratory escapes of SARS-CoV28. We must therefore examine the possibility of an inadvertent laboratory release of SARS-CoV-2.

          In theory, it is possible that SARS-CoV-2 acquired RBD mutations (Fig. 1a) during adaptation to passage in cell culture, as has been observed in studies of SARS-CoV11. The finding of SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses from pangolins with nearly identical RBDs, however, provides a much stronger and more parsimonious explanation of how SARS-CoV-2 acquired these via recombination or mutation.

          The acquisition of both the polybasic cleavage site and predicted O-linked glycans also argues against culture-based scenarios. New polybasic cleavage sites have been observed only after prolonged passage of low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus in vitro or in vivo17. Furthermore, a hypothetical generation of SARS-CoV-2 by cell culture or animal passage would have required prior isolation of a progenitor virus with very high genetic similarity, which has not been described. Subsequent generation of a polybasic cleavage site would have then required repeated passage in cell culture or animals with ACE2 receptors similar to those of humans, but such work has also not previously been described. Finally, the generation of the predicted O-linked glycans is also unlikely to have occurred due to cell-culture passage, as such features suggest the involvement of an immune system.

          …

          The genomic features described here may explain in part the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here. However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.

          1. Charity Theory

            That paper is dated, March 17.
            Note that I also mention Luc Montagnier who suspects the same thing.

            Other curious details surrounding the issue aside, there is also some charitable suggestion that the virus’ release may have been ‘accidental’.

            Occam’s Razor

            2. I don’t believe Luc Montagnier is considered a credible source.

              While his research career in the 1980s and 1990s had some great successes, for the past decade or more his work has been considered ‘controversial’ or even ‘fringe’, with support for homeopathy etc.

      3. Petrovsky says that the results, which are not peer-reviewed…

        1. Yes we know that too. Another emoji gold star for you: ?

          So then let the peers review it.

          But let them.

          And then let the truth come out. You know, the true truth.

          Tall order in these times, Dennis, yes?

          1. Caelan,

            Not many peers here, so like so much else that can be found on the internet, perhaps not the “true” truth. Just pointing out the “fact” that the research is not peer reviewed.

            1. Sure… I have a concern that it’s not going to be peer reviewed properly since, and as I’ve been reminding you and others over the years, we are already living lies of sorts. Those are facts too and it’s hard to get some kinds of truths out of that. I guess we’ll see, or maybe we won’t.

            2. Caelan,

              Without any specificity of the “lies” you claim as fact, is simply innuendo.

  12. Why why why? After all this time are so many of my questions not even being addressed. Why did countries not shut down incoming flights except for legal residents that would have been subjected to a strict quarantine upon arrival way back in early February? Why is Trump Pence Fauci and Birx along with the national intelligence agencies, not having to answer for such an oversight? Talk about some almost unimaginable incompetence.

    Why all the focus on ICUs deaths transmission but almost no research into why so many people can work in hospitals surrounded by covid patients and co workers with totally inadequate PPE and have either none or some minor symptoms but test Negative including the antibodies tests? You would think that there would be a lot of interest in finding out what the common denominators are for so many that appear to be totally immune to sars cov 2.

    Why; all the fear porn about asymptomatic spreaders? When in fact this is proof that it is not just sars cov 2 that is causing the problems. Something else is also affecting the outcome.

    In my area Outdoor open air farmers markets are closed but grocery stores are full with many including staff not even wearing a mask ? But the local hospitals are running far below normal patient count but not to far away in Detroit some hospitals are somewhat overwhelmed with to many deaths but not willing to raise pay for travel nurses?

    And what is the plan? Seems like many are expecting to wait for a vaccine when in fact we have so far never developed a safe and effective vaccine for any corona virus including sars cov 1. This is like Robinson Crusoe starving to death as he waits for a rescue ship.

    An why why why no encouragement and not even a mention whatsoever for beefing up our immune system with nutrition, fresh air, exercise and minimizing harmful chemicals ?

    Shouldn’t it raise a lot of questions why this Corona virus is so much worse in some areas vs others? Cities worse than rural areas. First world nations worse than 3rd world and developing nations. Advanced and industrialized Northern Italy worse than Southern poor Italy. Belgium where the EU headquarters are located. How much closer is Sweden to achieving herd immunity vs Denmark?

    Why bail out airlines? Why subsidize such big energy hogs and polluters? If people want to fly or ship items they should have to pay all the costs plus a substantial pollution tax.

    And how much longer until our cities explode with riots looting and total anarchy?

    1. I’ve encountered this notion more than a few times lately and that is that we appear to be in a post-truth world.

      “Post-truth is a philosophical and political concept for ‘the disappearance of shared objective standards for truth’ and the ‘circuitous slippage between facts or alt-facts, knowledge, opinion, belief, and truth’. Post-truth discourse is often contrasted with the forms taken by scientific methods and inquiry… It was named Word of the Year in 2016 by the Oxford Dictionary where it is defined as ‘Relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief’.

      While the term post-truth is relatively recent, the concept can be traced back to earlier moral, epistemic, and political debates about relativism, postmodernity, and mendacity in politics, including nontruthfulness, lies, deception, and deliberate falsehood.” ~ Wikippedia

      By the way, and speaking of which, while I get what you mean by your mention of anarchy, my idea of it is not chaos at all but lateral hierarchy. The sooner vertical hierarchies can collapse or at least leave those who want to be left alone, alone, maybe the sooner things like truth and transparency (and control over our own lives, etc.) can prevail.

    2. Farmlad,

      Worse in cities because of dense population, some cities worse than others because certain cities have more gateway travelers and perhaps business travelers so community spread started earlier in those places before social distancing occurred. Not as much of an apparent problem in some less developed nations because of lack of testing so excess deaths are not attributed to COVID19 due to the lack of available tests and poor reporting of data. Herd immunity may be achieved sooner in Sweden due to less aggressive social distancing measures. Sweden has 371 deaths per million, Denmark 95 deaths per million, and Norway 43 deaths per million, and Finland 54 deaths per million. Which Scandanavian nation is not like the others? This is a choice that nations make, note also that Denmark and Norway have tested far more people per capita than Sweden.

    1. Just skimmed its beginning for now but this guy’s name is familiar:

      “In fact, Professor Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the AIDS virus and winner of a Nobel Prize in Medicine, claims that the new coronavirus is the result of an attempt to manufacture a vaccine against the AIDS virus. He believes that the accidental release of this virus is what is causing today’s pandemic.” ~ Gail T

      1. The virus – which I allege is “manufactured” came by at the right time in history – seems that Peak Oil is here, close to past or present, Industrial Civilization is failing, limits to growth have been reached – and it is time for the 7 plus billion Human Beings to end their Reign upon Earth.

        Peace be with you – Caelan MacIntyre

        Being a Seer of Truth has consequences.

  14. This forum is infested with voices pretending to care about humanity, opposing and ridiculing any effort to do anything constructive, offering no alternative ideas, and justifying their position by claiming the end is near. Also they repeat the same lies over and over again.

    1. LOL And I thought this forum was infested by not very smart people wearing rose colored glasses who insist our grossly overpopulated and desecrated planet can be repaired by silly technological fixes, repeating the same nonsense over and over again.

        1. Wow, it’s BlueTwilight from The Oil Drum… As if things weren’t trippy enough these daze. 😉

    2. By “constructive” do you mean brainstorming more ways for Tesla to make money, like giving away free cars and then selling the user the electricity? Is that how you care about humanity?

      1. Definitely, that is what he said in some alternate universe. 🙂

        1. I wish one or more of my slightly future-shifted alternate-universe selves had the capacity to warn me about some things in this universe.

          1. Nowhere in my post is there any claim that it is about “caring for humanity”. You are spreading stupid, easily checked lies.

            I have never made any claim to be virtuous. That’s just you putting words in my mouth. I rarely if ever even say what I want to happen. I sometimes make predictions, but not very often.

            You confuse what you want with what you think will happen.

            You rarely offer any new ideas or serious rebuttals to my remarks. For example, why shouldn’t car companies give away car like phone companies give away phones? It may be a crap idea, I’ve heard no serious counterargument on this supposedly smart, model-driven site. Remember Hubbert?

            The best you seem to be able to come up with are sophomoric taunts like this one. I suspect it is down to a lack of imagination, or some BDSM-like desire for bad things.

            What you want seems to be some kind of Eschatological event that will end the world and punish evil doers for their sins. As Nietzsche pointed out, this is a slave ideology, hoping for higher powers to deal with human problems because you have accepted slavery and lost all faith in yourself. Or as my grandmother said to me once as we drove by a church, “The poor dears. They don’t believe in themselves, so they have to believe in god”. People have weird ways of coping with pain and disappointment.

            My view is that we are in a race between technical innovation and environmental destruction. My father was a founding member of the Hawk Migration Association of North America, and participated in the Federal government’s Breeding Bird Census for decades. So I spent much of my childhood counting bird populations.

            In his declining years father said, “What I have observed is a secular decline in the number of species observed and the number of observed individual of each species”. He also remarked somewhat bitterly that “Conservation is a rearguard action”. But I don’t think he ever gave up hope.I share Ron’s worries, but that is independent of the idea that technology will not improve.

            On the other hand, technology is changing at an insane pace. Will it solve our problems? That depends on whether the new tech provides short term incentives to deal with long term problems. But the idea that change isn’t happening is just stupid.

            Also personifying change by connecting it to individual “good guys” and “bad guys” is cave man thinking. So spare your opinions of Tesla and Elon Musk. Who knows, he may meet the same fate as those great innovators the Dodge Brothers, who were killed by the 1918 pandemic. That didn’t stop the car industry, did it.

            1. “The best you seem to be able to come up with are sophomoric taunts like this one. I suspect it is down to a lack of imagination, or some BDSM-like desire for bad things…. What you want seems to be some kind of Eschatological event that will end the world and punish evil doers for their sins.’ – Alim.

              Such omnipotence! Not your style, eh Alim.?

              So, because I forecast some suboptimal outcomes for humanity (from the combined impacts of peak oil and climate change) then you assume I desire them to be so? Does this logic also apply to meteorologists who forecast a hurricane? Do they want a hurricane? Are they into BDSM?

              Maybe you should rewrite the story ‘The Ant and The Grasshopper’, but in your’s have the ant not only foreseeing and preparing for winter, but as well actively wishing for it to be a tough one just to fuck over the grasshopper for the lols.

              To put it mildly, you’re not exacly captain of the Harvard debate club.

              And I’ve been through the slave thing with one of you cornucopians before. Last time we did Hagel and his master-slave dialectic. We can do Nietzche’s master slave morality now if you like, or perhaps you’re confusing the two.

              In conclusion, show data, not platitudes.

              PS- what do you think of Non-Musk EV developments? Are you aware of any?

              https://insideevs.com/news/406839/byd-blade-battery/

              It seems the EV analysts/enthusiasts here missed out on happily sharing with us some of the best news in battery tech in quite some time, likely because it wasn’t from Tesla. If it was, as I’m sure everybody here suspects, we would have heard all about it. But it wasn’t, so we didn’t.

            2. Survivalist,

              Great news on BYD, most here are happy that there is competition for Tesla, more EVs will likely to reduce oil use, the more companies are involved, the better the result is likely to be (more innovation, lower cost, etc).

              Many of us are in North America and as far as I know BYD vehicles are not available here, so many are less familiar.

              In addition any mention of EVs is typically met with the standard rose colored glasses comments.

              There are great EVs from Hyundai/Kia and Chevrolet and a number of nice plugin hybrids like the Prius Prime and some models from Ford, Chrysler and Honda as well.

            3. That Car, the Han in which the Blade battery will first appear looks very nice, the battery looks like it is a nice step forward, especially for safety. Price is reasonable, between 33k to 39k depending on version (the one that goes 250 miles is about 34k.) The Tesla Model 3 is about 42k in China for the standard range which has a range of about 250 miles. Not clear the M3 will compete well with the Han.

              Will be fun to watch.

    3. Alimbiquated,

      I think a variety of opinions is nice. Out of the box thinking is needed. The observation that solar and wind have not reduced fossil fuel use by much is correct. Also the idea that other less technological solutions should be used is also correct in my opinion.

      A combination of simply planting 1.2 trillion trees (say 60 billion per year over the next 20 years) and a fast transition to wind and solar power could reduce cumulative net anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1800 to 2100 to under 400 Gt C (about 500 Gt C will be removed from the atmosphere by the growth of the 1.2 trillion trees planted.) Note there is also the potential for further reductions by “green cement” that removes carbon from the atmosphere, and raising less industrial meat (if more people choose a vegetarian diet or simply consume less industrial meat), and better farming practices that release less carbon from the soil.

      Doug will of course say that such rosy scenarios are not possible, and he is correct to be skeptical in my view.

      1. I quite like the tree planting idea. Much of the northern taiga and tundra will soon be fit for better tree growth.

          1. So they are proposing a huge swath of melting permafrost, emitting GHG, followed by some GHG capture as forests progress forward. Makes sense.
            Warm world coming.
            Explains the reptilian fossils found in the far North.

            Tests of mud layers at the bottom of Siberian Lakes have shown much higher temperature in the past, more than 12C rise compared to now.

      2. Dennis,
        I don’t mind differing opinions, but I prefer rational argumentation, and interesting contributions to the conversation.

        I think tree planting is a bit of a red herring. Trees need soil to grow, and soil only forms when erosion is stopped.

        The conversation about saving the desert and saving trees from solar is stupid too, because tree planting will reduce deserts a well. In fact, most modern deserts are the result of human activity. Nearly all deserts are eroding landscapes, so any carbon captured by life gets re-released.

        1. “The conversation about saving the desert and saving trees from solar is stupid too”
          Yep, you are the only smart one here. Maybe you can be moderator here.

        2. Alimbiquated,

          Over the long term, yes carbon gets released, there are lots of areas where trees can be planted, a peer reviewed study that looked at satellite imagery, evaluated climate and soil and assumed farm and grazing land was not reduced, estimated that 1.2 trillion trees could potentially be planted on the planet, that would equate to roughly 500 Gt C removed from the atmosphere from 2020 to 2100 if 60 billion trees were planted each year for the next 20 years, the cost is about $0.3/tree so about $18 billion per year for 20 years a total cost of $360 billion, not a lot of money and perhaps there might be some offset from other effects such as decreased albedo from trees, but on balance most climate scientists believe it would help, the birds would like it no doubt. Helps soil erosion, produces oxygen, there is a lot to like in my opinion.

          Seems this and better farming practices, less industrial meat production, improved energy efficiency as well as increased wind, solar, and electric powered transportation should all be part of the solution to environmental damage. In addition, better access to secondary and post secondary education for women and equal rights for women will reduce total fertility rates and in turn lead to a peak and decline in World population, this is a key to reducing environmental damage, once this transition occurs, world population can be reduced by 25% every 50 years. It is possible that population decline will proceed more quickly than this, but a scenario where population declines by 25% every 50 years starting in 2080 would bring world population to under 1 billion by 2450. In the SSP1 Model of W. Lutz et al, 2014, population is 7.23 billion in 2100 and falls at a rate of 25% every 50 years (5.56% every decade).

          1. I guess my post was a little garbled. I would also expect tree planting to reduce erosion. I would also expect erosion reduction to increase tree growth.

            1. Alimbiquated,

              Not sure why you consider planting trees a red herring. There are areas where trees do not grow very well, perhaps some solar arrays would make sense in those areas, it would make more sense than growing corn and then producing ethanol for example. In areas where trees grow well, they can potentially sequester some carbon, though the best approach is to protect existing and especially old growth forests.

    4. Alim- I agree very much with your statement.
      There are few here who are mentally fit for a discussion.
      I waver on whether to stay around.
      I’m not here for conspiracy theories, unfounded opinions presented as truth (ex- solar and wind require more energy to manufacture than they produce), religious talk, right-wing half-wits, or perpetual regurgitation of stupid ass positions.
      If it isn’t a place to share news and learn something about energy, population, environment and related issues, its just a barber shop half filled with loudmouth village outcasts.

      1. Agreed 200%. We need better modding before this blog degrades into a cesspit.

        NAOM

        1. NAOM, I’ve blocked Doug, GF, Caelan and Tim E. That helps. Arguably not ideal, should be open to rational discussion etc, but my mental health comes first!

          3. John, You may be the smartest person here.
            I’m going to consider that expanded ignore approach.
            Some of you guys are worth a discussion.
            Others, well life is just too short.

          4. I blocked OFM once and it took 65 yards of the comments thread haha just kidding. I never block anybody. I’m an alien anthropologist studying the ‘mostly stupid tribe’ that inhabits this blue marble, and blocking sources is bad for my field notes.

        1. It’s not hard to tell who here is perhaps balls deep in Tesla stock. Fred Magyar once called me a Russian fossil fuel troll simply because I dared to question and cast doubt upon the utterances of one Elon Musk. I guess that’s all it takes.

          1. Forget Musk. He is irrelevant. His company will probably get bought by the Chinese in the next ten years anyway.

            Your fascination with stock prices are a good indication of how broken America has become. Stock prices don’t matter. Every article in every American outlet about how a company is doing talks about the stock price. But then, half the letters to the editor in my home town newspaper in Tennessee mention Jesus. There is no Jesus. Stock prices don’t matter. Unless you want it that way. Free your mind.

            1. “I wonder if Tesla might start giving away its cars for free. There may be ways of making money doing this.” – Alim. on May 16.

              “Forget Musk. He is irrelevant.” – Alim. on May 18.

              To put it mildly, your arguments here come across as a bit disjointed and unprepared; very knee jerk. Perhaps you need to better understand your own thesis before attempting to communicate it to others with expectations of a buy-in.

          2. Not even a penny of that stock for me, if that is what you’re thinking Survivor.
            btw- how did you let such a big thorn get up your arse? You need to zip up and protect yourself better.
            Whats bad for your arse is bad for your mind.

      4. Hickory, no one ever said “(ex- solar and wind require more energy to manufacture than they produce), ” except for you.
        Please stop feigning ignorance concerning the difference between rate and cumulative energy. Everyone that ever got a paycheck or invested in something knows the difference.
        If you want a higher level discussion, you need to raise your own awareness and stop the personal and general attacks on people.
        Somehow, I doubt if that is your objective.

        1. I feel that perhaps some here are put-off by the skepticism/extreme skepticism that is expressed towards the Green cornucopia space program, the future, and all that. I do quite like extreme skepticism. Perhaps others who frequent a peak oil entitled collapse blog do too. I feel that the info exchange and convos here are all very fine as long as the skepticism/extreme skepticism doesn’t venture into becoming epistemological nihilism. And I don’t think that it has. I suppose some might feel that expressing feelings of hopelessness and posting data to back it up are a bit depressing and not good for morale and favored equities, but I don’t see why there should be a stop put to it on that basis.
          For those who find it too spicey on the comments now, just wait til the famine starts.

          1. If the data and analysis seems depressing, imagine what the reality is like!

            I think Hickory should take over as moderator of this part of the site. Or Nick G. That way there can be a consistent message and uninterrupted comment flow.

            1. Fearmongering – making use of fear so as to scare people into submission OR shutting down differing opinions by claiming they are automatically bad and need suppression.

            3. Hi SB, from what I can gather the one calling for the suppression of opinions here is Alim.

              IMHO GF, and his ilk, are participating in something that I like to call “construction of the problem definition”. If those who prefer denial (Javier). and those who prefer delusion (cornucopians) can’t handle it, then that’s on them.

          2. Had to look that one up –

            “Epistemological nihilism is a form of skepticism in which all knowledge is accepted as being possibly untrue or as being impossible to confirm as true”.

            I live in a Rustbelt City – which was once a manufacturing giant. That is Racine, WI – home to S.C. Johnson, In-Sink-Erator, Modine, Young Radiator, Continental Can, Massey Ferguson, Case, Dumore, Dremel, Racine Steel, Rainfair, and so many others – I can’t remember. In the early 1990’s the Father of my friend took home $100,000 G w/overtime, not including benefits – working at the Case Foundry works – which are now torn down and the land has been for sale for over a decade.

            The City has shrunk in population, the tax burden is huge, I work for Peanuts as a Machinist and have no benefits. 20% of the City’s budget – $20,000,000 goes just to pay health care benefits for City Employees, most who contribute little to nothing, and upon retirement receive *FREE* healthcare for life, depending upon some variables.

            The housing in large areas is run down – the board ups are increasing, the taxes are increasing, and abandoned and torn down manufacturing facilities litter the landscape.

            But who knows – add some Solar and Wind – TOO CHEAP TO METER! And Racine could be reborn. Just like nuclear.

            Hopefully the link will work – overhead view of former CASE Foundry.

            https://www.google.com/maps/place/Racine,+WI/@42.6964592,-87.7969724,822m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x88054254f4ab541b:0xf4f6da64e15e1aa!8m2!3d42.7261309!4d-87.7828523

            1. Overhead view of former American Motors Manufacturing Plant – once a major Automotive Producer – it went out of business and Chrysler took over. There – Chrysler manufactured engines, mostly straight 6’s. Back in the ‘good old days” – around 2000, I was a Union Carpenter making decent money & benefits. A new engine plant was built on the site – and then in 2010 – “POOF” – and it all was gone. Now they are proposing to use the contaminated land as a “Community Garden”.

              Hopefully the link to the overhead view works, note how it is titled “Auto Production in Kenosha”:

              https://www.google.com/maps/place/Auto+Production+in+Kenosha,+24th+Ave,+Kenosha,+WI+53140/@42.5846747,-87.8417238,1648m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x88054254f4ab541b:0xf4f6da64e15e1aa!2sRacine,+WI!3b1!8m2!3d42.7261309!4d-87.7828523!3m4!1s0x88055e39226cbc01:0xff34fc0e917609a0!8m2!3d42.5858698!4d-87.8439251

            3. Tim, thanks for those links, and for sharing your story. I really like online maps and streetviews these days as it allows me to view the shabby end of Cyprus at will; and perhaps more interestingly, Baltimore, Camden, and other such places that are increasingly coming closer and closer to home. I hope you’re able to resist demoralization. It ain’t easy, I know.

              “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.” ~ William Gibson in The Economist, December 4, 2003”

            4. Thank you – Survivalist for your kind response – and open mind.

              Sharing always promotes growth.

        2. Gone fishing,

          Tim E said solar and wind were energy sinks, not sure how else that would be interpreted.

            1. Gone fishing,

              Sorry, thread is hard to follow.

              You said:

              “Hickory, no one ever said “(ex- solar and wind require more energy to manufacture than they produce), ” except for you.”
              …

              my comment was in response to that, though I realize now that perhaps Tim E was thinking of all components of a wind and solar system where rapid growth of both sectors is occuring, for any rapidly growing small industry, there is likely to be more energy that goes into that sector during the buildup than later on as the industry approaches steady state or slower growth.

              So in one sense, perhaps the energy sink comment is correct when the wind and solar industries are growing at 15 to 30% per year and we look at energy spent to produce facilities relative to the energy output of those facilities for any given year.

              The battery backup is not currently needed and the transmission and distribition network already exists, in 10 to 20 years we may need upgrades, but those would likely have been needed in any case.

            2. Sorry to bother you Dennis. You have all the answers. Good luck with them.

            3. Gone fishing,

              Thanks for the response. The 1700 kWh/m2/year plane of array estimate is a common estimate for the Global average for PV systems. It is not clear why you believe wind and solar would be net energy negative, especially when one considers that fossil fuel to end use energy EROI is likely less than wind and solar. Also demand management is indeed possible with real time electricity pricing, with electricity prices posted on the web for customers who choose flexible pricing to reduce electricity cost. This does not require smart appliances, it can be done manually with existing “dumb” appliances. There is no requirement for 24/7 power as much as one wants, there can be flexibility for many uses. Thermostats can be set lower in winter and higher in summer when electricity rates are high, less hot water, cooking, refrigeration, etc can be used during high electricity price periods.

              There are a variety of potential storage options, thermal, compressed air, power to gas, power to hydrogen, pumped hydro, ev vehicle to grid, and battery. The cheapest option will likely be chosen and some minimal backup from hydro, nuclear, biofuel, or natural gas can be utilized until a viable solution to the storage problem is devised. It is possible that the cheapest solution is to simply overbuild wind and solar widely distributed and interconnected worldwide (search supergrid) which would require minimal backup, perhaps 1% of average load hours.

            4. It is possible that the cheapest solution is to simply overbuild wind and solar

              An important point: the US grid is already overbuilt by a factor of about 2.5x (total capacity 1,150GW, average demand 450GW). That’s just basic SOP (standard operating procedure), and it’s perfectly clear that we can afford that as part of the normal overhead cost of operating a grid.

            5. “Sorry to bother you Dennis. You have all the answers. Good luck with them.”

              Well, you see Dennis, for a man like Gone Fishing, it is a lot easier to denigrate you, than to admit that he has been wrong all along on this. He seems to hate renewable energy, or perhaps just being wrong on a position he staked out along time ago. Poor fellow has so much identity based on being ‘right’.

              Your patience is heroic Dennis. I am not well-endowed with it, I admit.

            6. Hickory,

              I do not know if Gone fishing is “wrong”, we may have read different papers and come to different conclusions. He suggested a 3 year payback time, in 2014 that was one estimate based on a meta analysis of papers from 2000 to 2013. In that paper it looked to me like EROI was consideably higher for the later papers (2010-2013), suggesting a lower payback time of perhaps 2 years today for multi-crystalline Si PV systems.

              On further reading,

              I found the paper below interesting, it suggests that the 1700 kwh/m2/year (or 4.67 kwh/m2/day) estimate used in some papers may underestimate the potential for an optimally tilted and horizontally tracked PV system average (horizontal tracking swivels about a vertical axis , I often get vertical and horizontal tracking confused) which would be roughly 6.5 kwh/m2/day or 2370 kwh/m2/year about 39% higher.

              https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/TiltAngles.pdf

              Gonefishing may simply not be interested in talking about it anymore, I am interested in alternative perspectives which is why I attempted to engage and he is a smart guy, I am sure I can learn something.

              His observation that during a rapid ramp up in wind and solar the amount of energy consumed in a given year producing new wind and solar power facilities and the supporting balance of system components is possibly less than the output from all existing wind and solar facilities in that given year, but one has to cast a very wide net to come to this conclusion for 2019. Using an energy payback time of 3 years there were several years of very high growth rates for solar output from 2008 to 2012 where net output for the year was negative (where I assume the 3 year energy payback is paid up front in the year the systems were installed).

              By 2018 when the rate of growth had slowed, about 67% of solar output would have been “spent” on producing the systems (full costs including balance of system) installed in 2018. Going forward with my model and still assuming 3 year payback time (I believe this assumption is too conservative) and declining growth rates (28%, 27%, … , 11%, 10%) in annual solar output this upfront payment falls to 28% in 2037 when the growth rate has fallen to 10% per year. Note also that I assume systems that are older than 25 years are replaced and that is included starting in 2014 (data set starts in 1990). By 2049 I assume solar and wind are at about 88% of total end use energy output and growth slows to 1% per year, in that year only 7.7% of solar output is needed to pay upfront new solar systems and replacement of 25 year old systems. Over the 1990 to 2050 period about 24% of gross solar output is needed to pay for solar systems (full costs, but excludes storage).

              For the early part of the period from 1990 to 2020 about 70% of output was needed to pay the energy costs of the new systems, but later over the 2021 to 2060 period the cost falls to 18%(3 year payback assumption). For my original 2 year payback assumption it would be about 12%, in my opinion the 2 year payback going forward is more reasonable (and possibly too conservative as I believe costs will continue to fall).

              To me the skepticism is very helpful as it makes me investigate the research that is out there, but often we find what we are looking for as we are all biased (or at least I am, perhaps others are convinced that they are objective, I do not think that is possible).

            7. Oh Hick, you actually believe Dennis’s fantasy projections that he changes up all the time to fit his argument? Or are you just kissing butt? Despite the evidence of increasing fixed battery storage around the world and the sociopathic corporate projections of 20 percent CAGR through the decade?

              Not to worry, your fellow sociopaths will push PV-EV-Battery storage well past the point of no return to make lots of money. When it fails and becomes obvious that it is a worse energy sink than ethanol as a fuel, it will, like ethanol, be continued.
              Follow the money.

              BTW, I really like renewable energy. Just not stupidly mindless about it.

            8. Gone fishing,

              Changes in models were due to exchange with you. First change was less electricity demand after 2049 based on assumption that as more of the world becomes developed that primary energy demand might fall as it has in Europe and N America. In addition a better model might be to use population projections and per capita end use energy use to estimate future end use energy demand.

              In addition some of the papers I read lead to ideas for better models. I note that there are a number of peer reviewed papers that suggest potential renewable energy paths.

              My fantasy scenarios are informed by some of those papers.

              My most recent comment changed energy payback time from 2 years to 3 years. In an earlier comment you said you use 3 year payback. That is consistent with an older 2013 estimate based on papers from 2007 to 2013.

            9. Thank goodness, Dennis, the solar march has gone flat. Descending rates each year are a linear growth pattern (like I haven’t said that often enough).
              My region, and yours, gets about 4 kWh/m2/day insolation. You know. where much of the population lives. Europe gets less on average. The deserts get about 6 or so on average. If you can keep the sand off and cool the panels and protect them from thieves.
              Much of the PV is installed in China and India where monsoons occur. There is an excellent detailed study out there for insolation in Vietnam relating to solar energy.

              But so what? The things don’t work without a large outside system to store and buffer the variable output. That is where the weakness and energy sink lies. From studies that take into account the mining, smelting and processing energy (manufacture is only about 12 percent of the energy to make a battery), it takes about the cumulative energy from 30 PV panels over 30 years to make one 100 kWh Li-ion battery pack. So those with an EV or two in the garage and battery backup in their houses are seriously negative on energy, even if they have solar on the roof.

              Latest craziness I read, to use nuclear plants to back up solar. They would store their extra power in the summer as say hydrogen or a synfuel then burn that in the winter to make up for the lack of sun.
              So you need PV, batteries, nuclear, natural gas, etc. to make PV fully functional? Or it will just end up as one more ring in the energy circus of infinite aircons, toasters, microwaves and fridges. Oh yeah, heat pumps and EV’s now too.

              I think the rich will put in PV, batteries and fueled back up since the grid will get more and more unstable with time. They will be having their parties, driving their EV’s while the rest sit in the dark, maybe with headlamps or candles, waiting for the power to come back so they can cook food and wash the clothes. If they don’t freeze in the winter or get heat stroke in the summer.
              The 30’s and 40’s are going to make corona virus look like nothing at all.

              Pardon my view, but it changes as I research and think further. Plus all along I have realized, for a long time, we are on a living planet and the current industrial system is killing it.
              So unless techno solutions provide an extreme advantage without bad side effects, they are just harmful temporary creations that turn to junk in short order.

              Well, out to the plants now. Catch more vitamin D rays.

      5. Hickory —
        It’s that good old fashioned American “can’t do” attitude. It’s one of the things that has changed the most in my lifetime.

        1. Hi Hickory and Alimbiquated,

          I am assuming you are not looking for a place where everyone agrees with your point of view. This blog would be pretty uninteresting if that were the case, in my opinion. I could do without the conspiracy theories, but I try to simply ignore those types of comments.

          1. Your assumption is correct Dennis.
            In fact, I value input that may go against my own preconceptions or understanding of a particular issue, if it is coherently presented and substantiated with legit sources of background analysis.
            That, along with news (both good and bad) that I might not have come across elsewhere, is the reason I have come around here.
            And I do spend time trying to provide a reality check to this place so it remains relevant. It is in desperate need of reality check, so often.
            I am very appreciative of your strong efforts to keep this place a little bit sane.
            But the quality of the dialogue is severely tainted by a few, and all it takes is a few to ruin a good gathering of people. Seems like some see it as their job to throw hand grenades at any dialogue that goes against their ‘religion’, despite lack of a reality basis. Mental health is not a strong suit of many who post here, clearly.

            People would be wise to ask themselves, when grabbing the microphone in any group- Is what I have to say important for others to hear? Is my goal to to be constructive to a conversation? Would my silence better a better use of time space and energy, on this particular matter? Am I willing to hear what others have to say? Do I want to be treated with dignity in return for how I conduct myself?
            I get the sense that you are well aware these considerations, and I respect your conduct thoroughly. Others would do well to learn a little.

            1. Hickory,

              All of us stray form the path on occasion, myself included.

              Just keep in mind that everyone believes their own personal viewpoint is the most reasonable and realistic point of view. Other points of view are seen as unrealistically optimistic or pessimistic when viewed from one’s personal lens.

              People (including me, or perhaps me most of all) are very attached to their personal viewpoint and resist changing those sometimes becoming quite annoyed when their point of view is challenged or dismissed.

              All of us would be wise to keep that in mind, especially me.

              Thank you for the kind words, I try my best, yet often fail.

        2. The ‘Can do’ attitude bit reminds me of Oprah and her well-worn platitudes about having a positive attitude to improve your life and to make your problems go away. I guess she’s never been to Camden. Positive thinking is the only philosophy that America has contributed to human thought. Sad really.

          “A self-sealing system is one that is closed in on itself, allowing no consideration of disconfirming evidence or alternative points of view.”
          http://cultresearch.org/cults-today-new-social-psychological-perspective/

          https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/oprah-winfrey-the-cult-of-oprah-421919.html

          1. The “can do” attitude certainly predates Oprah Winfrey. It sounds like you aren’t very familiar with American culture.

            I don’t claim that the attitude is a good thing. Obviously you are trying to attack me with you nonsensical riff, but as so often, you miss the point: I was simply noting that America has changed, and changed a lot in the last 40 years.

            You seem completely incapable of coming up with anything original or interesting. You just pick up on a phrase, get triggered, google around till you find something vaguely related and post it.

            1. Yes, America has changed. Thank you for pointing out the painfully obvious. Perhaps, if it would change back to how you say it was before (which from your comment a few up it seems reasonable to assume you mean the opposite of America’s new “can’t do” attitude, the thing which you claim is a more recent and perhaps disappointing development), then things would all begin to get better again; sounds kinda like MAGA for Musk fans; “Make America Can-Do Again”, it has a nice ring to it. Trumpsters and Muskers (and Oprah fans) perhaps have more in common than many realize (see link to cults from my yesterday comment).

              Otherwise; show data, not platitudes.
              Weak tea, as usual, from the cornucopians

            2. Survivalist,

              The doomer perspective is equally weak. None of us know what the future will bring. The “cornucopians” here as a rule are decidedly pessimistic. Believing for example that fossil fuels are limited (so much so that the doomers both say I am too optimistic and too pessimistic.) For example when I make my “absurdly optimistic” fossil fuel projections, I am considered optimistic. Then when I conclude that the “optimistic” fossil fuel projections suggest that any carbon emissions scenario of more than 1500 Gt C is not realistic (that is roughly RCP4.5), I become a pessimist on fossil fuel, but now an optimist on climate change. Clearly 1500 Gt C is too much carbon emission, so I suggest perhaps the demographers like Wolfgang Lutz may be correct that we should focus on education for young women so that population might peak in 2050-2070. Again decidedly not very cornucopian.

              I focus as well as on improving energy efficiency, reducing environmental damage, recycling, building products that last for decades or centuries, cradle to grave manufacturing.

              You can call it cornucopian if you like, I would just call it a sensible path forward.

              I have noticed you rarely opine on any path forward, but I may have missed it.

  15. COVID19 Observations, Flagstaff, Arizona, April 7, 2020

    I received a post card dated March 16, 2020, with the following information (capitalization is the same as on the card):

    “SLOW THE SPREAD
    PRESIDENT TRUMP’S CORONAVIRUS GUIDELINES FOR AMERICA

    Listen and follow the directions of your STATE AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

    IF YOU FEEL SICK, stay home. Do not go to work.

    IF YOUR CHILDREN ARE SICK, keep them at home. Contact your medical provider.

    IF YOU ARE AN OLDER PERSON, or have a serious underlying health condition, stay home and away from other people.

    If someone in your household has TESTED POSITIVE, keep the entire household at home.

    Work or study FROM HOME whenever possible.

    AVOID SOCIAL GATHERINGS in groups of more than 10 people.

    Avoid eating or drinking at bars and restaurants – USE PICKUP OR DELIVERY OPTIONS.

    AVOID DISCRETIONARY TRAVEL, shopping trips, and social visits.

    DO NOT VISIT nursing homes or retirement or long-term care facilities unless to provide critical assistance.

    ALWAYS PRACTICE GOOD HYGIENE:
    . Wash your hands, especially after touching any frequently used item or surface.
    . Avoid touching your face.
    . Sneeze or cough into a tissue, or the inside of your elbow.
    . Disinfect frequently used items and surfaces as much as possible.

    EVEN IF YOU ARE YOUNG, OR OTHERWISE HEALTHY, YOU ARE AT RISK AND YOUR ACTIVITIES CAN INCREASE THE RISK FOR OTHERS. IT IS CRITICAL THAT YOU DO YOUR PART TO SLOW THE SPREAD OF THE CORONAVIRUS.

    CORONAVIRUS.GOV”
    ———————————

    The Grand Canyon is closed. Note, Flagstaff is a tourist destination for the Grand Canyon and snow skiing. There is a lot of snow on the San Francisco Peaks, and the ski resorts are probably losing revenue.

    About 10% of the people on the streets or in stores are wearing dust masks or a cloth over their mouths. A cop is wearing an N95 dust mask and latex gloves.

    A recycler that buys type 1 plastic is closed. A second recycler that places self-serve bins outside is open.

    Bank of America allows customers into the lobby and conducts business normally. Three others restrict access to the lobby, allow limited banking operations and require customers to use the drive up window. I can not deal with a maturing certificate properly. Interest rates for certificates are about 60% or less than they were a month ago (for example, 2.23% reduced to 1.24%).

    Motel and hotel rates are lower than normal this time of year. Some require customers to have a critical reason to rent a room and restrict services (such as no free breakfast). However, they all appear to be open for business.

    At the gasoline station a sign is posted on the door encouraging customers to go into the bathroom and wash their hands. An unwashed and unmasked beggar approaches within a foot of everyone fueling their vehicles asking for money to buy batteries.

    Supermarket 1: There are abnormally few cars in the parking lot and few customers in the store. There are sanitary hand wipes near the entrance as usual, but the nearby trashcan is overflowing with used ones. This store has high prices and normally full shelves but not today. To name a few missing items: peanut butter, lowest priced canned olives (expensive olives present), flour, ramen, and pork section with a sparse selection. The fresh produce section is stocked. The self-checkout registers are busy, and one cashier is present. Due to the shortages I purchase only 5 items, all from the produce section, and spend 25% of my normal amount of money. I got 6 pounds of Gala apples for $5, an abnormally low price.

    Store 2 (Walmart): There are abnormally few cars in the parking lot and customers inside the store. An employee is standing by the exit ensuring customers enter through the entrance and exit through the exits (people frequently enter through the exits). I estimate 25% of the grocery shelves are empty, the barest I have ever seen them. Some missing items: flour, canned chicken breast, peanut butter, raisins, grape jam, canned pears, canned peaches, cooking oil, ramen, canned cherry pie filling, nonfat milk (milk with other percentages of fat are present) and cheese. Some things present: canned tuna, canned Alaskan salmon, salad dressing, strawberry preserves, unsalted crackers, light apple juice, bread, ground turkey, and unsalted peanuts. I spend about 35% of the normal amount of money.

    Store 3 (another Walmart): There are abnormally few cars in the parking lot and customers inside the store. The side entrance is locked. The main entrance and exit are cordoned, and an employee, who is not wearing a mask, is present to ensure customers enter and exit through the proper paths. Sanitary hand wipes are not present near the door, but there is a container of liquid hand soap that no one is using. A janitor’s cart blocks the entrance to the men’s restroom preventing people from entering and washing their hands. People are standing around waiting to enter. About 25% of the grocery shelves are empty too. Some shelves have signs reading something like, “Please limit your purchases, so there is enough for everybody.” Some things missing: flour, rice, canned chicken breast, raisins, grape jam, canned pears, cooking oil, ramen, macaroni and cheese, canned cherry pie filling, bologna, and lettuce. I get the last 2 cans of peaches and 64 ounce jars of peanut butter. I get the last 3 boxes of unsalted crackers (needed 9, got 6). I buy high priced ham lunch meat because the bologna is missing. I get cheese and nonfat milk at this store. In the checkout line the person behind me maintains a distance of 2 meters whereas I maintain a distance of about 1 meter (the length of the shopping cart) from the person in front of me. I purchase about 70% of normal at this store.

    At the end of the day I feel like the trip to town is a waste because I could not complete all my tasks and my vehicle was not full of groceries and merchandise. When I run out of cooking oil, I will not be able to prepare several recipes and will have to forgo puchasing other ingredients. A shortage of one item has a cascading effect on other purchases. I am writing this 2 weeks after going to town and do not have any symptoms of corona virus.

    President Trump, you could have prevented this early on by requiring travelers to undergo quarantine for two weeks and testing before entering the country. But you would rather nonsensically blame your political opposition and pretend there is no danger, than lead a country.

    1. Down here, supermarkets are well stocked except for beans in Wallymart.

      NAOM

      1. Speaking of beans. I was told, by the nurses after my operation, that I could not eat beans anymore. All that gas might cause my colostomy bag to explode.

        1. If you have a hankering for beans, you might want to consider well cooked black eyed peas. They are the least gas producing and easily digested “beans” for most people. Most no gas at all. And they are the quickest cooking.

        2. Hi Ron, check out vented colostomy bags. Might be worth a try if you’re feeling gassy.

        3. How you prepare and cook beans has a big effect on gas production. Sorry I haven’t any links, just something I remember from my cooking. Avoid pozole too or at least the maize in it, I found out the hard way after eating some the day before diving – gas is under pressure when down but, boy, does it expand when you come up!

          NAOM

  17. From this:

    “Machinery Row is an exciting, $65 million mixed use redevelopment of a formerly industrial portion of Racine’s urban riverfront–a 20-acre site that once housed the original manufacturing operations of J. I. Case Main Works, and Golden Books in more recent decades. Machinery Row will re-energize Racine’s historic riverfront, with adaptive building reuse that celebrates the area’s industrial heritage. Mayor John Dickert called this 20-acre project the largest redevelopment project in Racine’s history. Working with the City, Vandewalle & Associates authored the award-winning plan that will involve environmental remediation, renovate and adaptively reuse former industrial buildings, manage stormwater while improving water quality, provide new urban housing options, and add a dynamic riverfront promenade”.

    http://www.vandewalle.com/work-1/racine/machinery-row/

    To this:

    “RACINE — The long saga of Machinery Row, the would-be redevelopment of two early J.I. Case Co. buildings in Downtown, ground to a halt in late 2017 with a different outcome planned for 2018: demolition.

    Machinery Row is the name of a plan announced in mid-2014 by Davenport, Iowa-based Rodney Blackwell of Financial District Properties to redevelop the two massive former Case buildings that date back to the early 1900s, at 820 and 900 Water St. Blackwell had planned to convert them into housing and commercial uses and work with the city to turn the waterfront there into a public thoroughfare”.

    https://journaltimes.com/business/local/top-stories-of-2017-no-4-machinery-row-to-be-demolished/article_5cdde7aa-3b4b-53d8-8186-284b4627e122.html

    Unfortunately Google has not updated it’s satellite imagery – but from on the ground – I can confirm it is a bombed out pile of rubble.

    Oh wait……..

    “RACINE — The transformation of a former industrial zone full of mostly vacant buildings near Downtown started slowly in 2018, then roared into high gear.

    Deconstruction of a 27-acre swath of buildings, called the Water Street Redevelopment Area or Machinery Row, is ranked as the No. 10 story in The Journal Times news staff’s list of the Top 10 news stories for 2018.

    The remake had really begun by 2017, with the complete collapse of an Iowa developer’s plan to redevelop two massive Case Co. buildings between Water Street and the river. Then, that November, the city pivoted and decided to wipe the area clean and offer the site up to developers. That involves the removal of 15 buildings, several of them large, former factories”.

    https://journaltimes.com/business/local/top-stories-of-2018-no-10-remaking-machinery-row-by-massive-deconstruction/article_bf3f3a04-4238-5e89-b0f5-26a01bf63cd8.html

    And who will inhabit those residential units? Where will they work – HEY – the World of The Jetsons is upon us. (sarc) Good luck with this magical thinking for the human species. After all – who needs Farmers – I buy my food at the Supermarket.

    Might be possible: “Inedia (Latin for ‘fasting’) or breatharianism /brɛθˈɛəriənɪzəm/ is the belief that it is possible for a person to live without consuming food, and in some cases water”.

    Everything is possible. The Universe is Limitless and Endless. – I agree.

    1. ALBEMARLE CORPORATION

      FORM 10-Q QUARTERLY REPORT

      Outlook- The current global business environment presents a diverse set of opportunities and challenges in the markets we serve. In particular, the market for lithium battery and energy storage continues to accelerate, providing the opportunity to continue to develop high quality and innovative products while managing the high cost of expanding capacity. The other markets we serve continue to present various opportunities for value and growth as we have positioned ourselves to manage the impact on our business of changing global conditions, such as slow and uneven global growth, currency exchange volatility, crude oil price fluctuation, a dynamic pricing environment, an ever-changing landscape in electronics, the continuous need for cutting edge catalysts and technology by our refinery customers and increasingly stringent environmental standards.

      Lithium: We expect results to decline year-over-year during 2020 in Lithium, due mainly to pricing pressure in certain markets, partially offset by productivity enhancements across our business. There is no new capacity coming online during 2020 to drive significant additional volume. We have not experienced a material impact from COVID-19 to date, however, our position in the automotive OEM supply chain may delay the overall impact to Lithium. While our plants in China temporarily operated at reduced rates during the first quarter due to operating restrictions, both plants are now back at normal capacity. We are continuing to monitor the Lithium impact for the remainder of the year as global electric vehicle production has slowed. In addition, following the acquisition of 60% interest in the Wodgina spodumene mine, we have made the decision to idle production of spodumene until demand supports bringing the mine back into production.

      On a longer-term basis, we believe that demand for lithium will continue to grow as new lithium applications advance and the use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and full battery electric vehicles increases. This demand for lithium is supported by a favorable backdrop of steadily declining lithium ion battery costs, increasing battery performance and favorable global public policy toward e-mobility/renewable energy usage. Our outlook is also bolstered by long-term supply agreements with key strategic customers, reflecting our standing as a preferred global lithium partner, highlighted by our scale, access to geographically diverse, low-cost resources and long-term track record of reliability of supply and operating execution.

      You snooze you lose

      1. Hope that Lithium provides some nutrition when the Ocean is dead.

        Watch: ‘City Of 400 Foreign Ships’ Illegally Fishing Off Argentina Comes To Life Each Night

        New footage shows what the publication dubs “a city of foreign ships” after reporters boarded a recent Argentine military flight to do surveillance on the illegal fishing below.

        The video shows ships with bright lights piercing the pitch dark ocean surface for as far as the eye can see, as if one is looking down on mysterious planet from space.

        https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-city-400-foreign-ships-argentinas-coast-conduct-illegal-fishing-night

        Bottom Trawling – google it – because this is good for the Ocean:

        “Bottom trawling destroys far more ocean habitat than any other fishing practice on the West Coast. In this fishing method, large weighted nets are dragged across the ocean floor, clear-cutting a swath of habitat in their wake. Some of these scars will take centuries to heal, if ever. For example, hard corals in Alaska have been dated to be hundreds to thousands of years old, and radio carbon dating on the oldest known deep sea corals indicates they are 4,200 years in age. Yet, these pillars of the ecosystem can be destroyed by one swipe of a bottom trawl.

        A bottom trawl consists of a large tapered net with a wide mouth and a small enclosed end. The mouth of a trawl net has two weighted doors that serve not only to keep the net open, but also to keep the net on the ocean floor. These doors can weigh several tons. In addition to the heavy doors, the bottom of the net is a thick metal cable (footrope) studded with heavy steel balls or rubber bobbins that effectively crush everything in their path. As the net drags along the seafloor, living habitat in its path is crushed, ripped up, or smothered as the seabed is turned over”.

        Enjoy that Soylent Green.

        1. Do you mean a dead ocean like Wisconsin rust belt manufacturing your complaining about ? You can’t have it both ways. Farmers won’t need machinists with a horse and plow.

          1. And Horses….

            By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were “drowning in horse manure”. In order for these cities to function, they were dependent on thousands of horses for the transport of both people and goods.

            In 1900, there were over 11,000 hansom cabs on the streets of London alone. There were also several thousand horse-drawn buses, each needing 12 horses per day, making a staggering total of over 50,000 horses transporting people around the city each day.

            To add to this, there were yet more horse-drawn carts and drays delivering goods around what was then the largest city in the world.

            This huge number of horses created major problems. The main concern was the large amount of manure left behind on the streets. On average a horse will produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day, so you can imagine the sheer scale of the problem. The manure on London’s streets also attracted huge numbers of flies which then spread typhoid fever and other diseases.

            https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/

            Simple People – Simple Answers…. Because Aboundanza always wins.

            Boomers – Please – GO AWAY!

            Facts don’t matter – so WTH.

            1. Plagues & Epidemics

              Thank the God you believe in that these problems – without a protecting God – protected them from……..

              “The first epidemic of a waterborne disease probably was caused by an infected caveman relieving himself in waters upstream of his neighbors.

              Perhaps the entire clan was decimated, or maybe the panicky survivors packed up their gourds and fled from the “evil spirits” inhabiting their camp to some other place.

              As long as people lived in small groups, isolated from each other, such incidents were sporadic. But as civilization progressed, people began clustering into cities. They shared communal water, handled unwashed food, stepped in excrement from casual discharge or spread as manure, used urine for dyes, bleaches, and even as an antiseptic.

              As cities became crowded, they also became the nesting places of waterborne, insect borne, and skin -to-skin infectious diseases that spurted out unchecked and seemingly at will. Typhus was most common, reported Thomas Sydenham, England’s first great physician, who lived in the 17th century and studied early history. Next came typhoid and relapsing fever, plague and other pestilential fever, smallpox and dysentery’s-the latter a generic class of disease that includes what’s known as dysentery, as well as cholera.

              The ancients had no inkling as to the true cause of their misery. People believed divine retribution caused plagues and epidemics, or else bad air, or conjunction of the planets and stars, any and all of these things.

              Ignorance Ain’t Bliss! How else to explain healthy people suddenly falling dead within hours and soldiers struck down with no signs of wounds? What else would cause such excruciating deaths, accompanied by delirium or hallucination, the body wracked by yellow or green or black vomit or excreta; or covered with obscene black boils, terrible red rushes or ghastly blue pallor? Why else would such sickness remain for months, then leave suddenly and not reappear till years later? Or perhaps it was replaced by a plague more deadly”.

              https://theplumber.com/plagues-epidemics/

              Covid 19 is an engineered virus – fools messing with bat virus – and inserting genetic coding to enable easier human transmission.

              Do you know what Hepes Simples is? A constant cold sore – the virus lives inside you – you can never ride yourself of it – once you have been infected – it is always waiting to re-erupt ala a ‘cold sore”.

              This is an engineered virus – using high tech techniques – from ?

              Maybe an accident – right – to protect us – but it ain’t going away and seems to be persistent.

              Kinda like Humans with their 23 chromosomes – where 2 & 3 magically fused – and where we continued – although you can have sex with a Planet Earth based 24 Chromosome Primate – no progeny will emerge.

              Miracle – upon miracle. Who could ever believe the Truth?

            2. “Covid 19 is an engineered virus – fools messing with bat virus – and inserting genetic coding to enable easier human transmission.”

              Got a legitimate source to back up this remarkable and portentous claim?

              Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19

              WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Office of the Director of National Intelligence today issued the following Intelligence Community (IC) statement:
              “The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.

              https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2112-intelligence-community-statement-on-origins-of-covid-19

              The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
              https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

              The coronavirus was not engineered in a lab. Here’s how we know.
              https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

              No credible evidence supporting claims of the laboratory engineering of SARS-CoV-2
              https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1733440

              Scientists Are Tired of Explaining Why The COVID-19 Virus Was Not Made in a Lab
              https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-think-of-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab-rumour

              COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
              https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

              The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak – an update on the status
              https://mmrjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40779-020-00240-0

            3. Covid 19 is an engineered virus – fools messing with bat virus – and inserting genetic coding to enable easier human transmission

              What goes on in the minds of conspiracy theorists that make them so goddamn stupid?

            4. Yes, and then there are those from around the world who ‘conspire’ to do microbiological research, attempting, in their super-duper-secure, ridiculously leak-proof labs and ‘spacesuits’, to learn, for example, about such teeny-tiny easy-peasy-to-control-and-manage things as viruses (viri?).

              All of Bob’s links above appear either dated and/or unaware of the recent findings I’ve referred to previously. Also, there are of course other ‘peculiarities’ to this whole CoVID19 story than just the research.

              Researcher 1:“Hey guys, I’m starved! Who’s up for lunch?”
              Researcher 2:“I’m in! Let’s check out the local market again! Love their soups!”
              Researcher 3: “Bat?”
              Researcher 2: “Never!”
              All Researchers in unison: “Ahahahaaa!” ^u^

            5. Experience?

              Why would the Saudi’s lie about the amount of oil which remains at Ghawar?

              But at this time – being goddamn stupid might be a blessing. Hope I am wrong – and that you are right.

  18. ” Edenville, Smallwood and just now Sanford Dam have all failed.”

      1. Dams kill ecosystems, and most living things.
        Just read Cadillac Desert again.
        And the waste of money and resources for the construction of these eco killers is astounding.

  19. It is a lie – a complete lie –

    This video segment from NOVA: “Judgment Day: Intelligent Design on Trial” reveals how genetic evidence helped to confirm an important component of Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection: the common ancestry of humans and apes. In particular, it explains that humans have one fewer chromosome pair in their cells than apes, due to a mutation found in chromosome number 2 that caused two chromosomes to fuse into one.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/07/3/l_073_47.html

    Miracle upon miracle – life is just an accident/

  20. It’s possible – just possible –

    That I am just hallucinating – and that CA isn’t asking for a trillion dollar bailout. https:

    Gov Newsom Calls For $1 Trillion In Federal Aid For California As LA Drags Feet On Reopening: Live Updates

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinese-ambassador-says-independent-who-investigation-joke-virus-updates

    Since the future is so bright – I gotta wear shades -…. well NO! Or Who is in charge?

    Can’t be possible.

    1. Tim E.

      And Trump and the GOP will pay it over.

      The GOP is going to borrow and print like no tomorrow, hoping to get the economy out of recession before the 2020 general election.

      Read an article where Presidents up for re-election are 11 for 11 if the economy is not in recession and only 1 for 7 (Calvin Coolidge 1924) when the economy is in recession.

      If Trump thinks bailing out the states (state workers and pensioners vote – and there are more swing voters in this demographic than you think) will get him votes, it will happen.

      Why he so badly wanted his name on the stimulus checks. Why he agreed to $600 a week bonus payment for unemployment. Why he will fork over more if the polls say it will help.

      I have relatives in college who were laid off from their part time jobs. For example, one is drawing $54 per week in unemployment plus $600 per week bonus. He was working like 10 hours a week at a part time job.

      The above stats I cite are also why the Far R Trump supporters think this entire thing is a conspiracy.

      It’s no conspiracy in that there is a virus that is killing many people. But you can now always count on the politicians making ANYTHING political, even if the health of US citizens is the issue.

      Gotta love the State of the USA in 2021. The extremes on both parties rule.

  21. I have been doing a lot of science reading lately. I just finished “Cosmology on Trial” and am now reading “Farwell to Reality”. Both books are about how many, but not all, cosmologists have gone off the deep end. I said, not all, because many have refused to go down that path. I just watched Youtube Video where Roger Penrose refers to the “Many Worlds Theory” as “Reductio ad absurdum”. That’s Latin for “total absolute bullshit”. Well, that’s not an exact translation but close enough. 😉

    But now scientific bullshit is in the news, bold mine:

    Nasa scientist detect evidence of parallel universe where time runs backward

    Low-energy, subatomic neutrinos with a mass close to zero can pass completely through Earth, but higher-energy objects are stopped by the solid matter of our planet, according to the report.

    That means the high-energy particles can only be detected coming “down” from space, but the team’s ANITA detected heavier particles, so-called tau neutrinos, which come “up” out of the Earth.

    The finding implies that these particles are actually traveling backward in time, suggesting evidence of a parallel universe, according to the Daily Star.

    WOW! That is some strong evidence for a parallel universe.

    “Not everyone was comfortable with the hypothesis,” he told New Scientist.

    Well, I would think not.

    This story also appears in New Scientist but is behind a pay wall.

    1. Parallel universe, engineered virus, idiot president, existence of ‘god’, you heard it on fox, he tweeted his self-proclaimed brilliance from the toilet seat and the masses cheered, the books were all thrown on the bonfire in the middle of the streets across the nation, the well educated were taken away in long train cattle cars, the forests became silent and then were burned for the liberation of the carbon in a final act of desperation.
      The Vulture watched patiently, seeing the world look more and more promising with each passing day.

      Failure to evolve. What a waste of genetic material.

    2. In the New Scientist article, it’s abundantly clear that this is purely speculative trying to explain one instance of an unexpected experimental observation.

      “This is a radical departure from the existing view of cosmology, and Turok is the first to admit that there are one or two loose ends. ….”

      A decidedly different slant than the Daily Star…

    3. Our perception of time and its centrality to all our physical concepts is at the heart of all the “weird” aspects of advanced physics. It is a nut we have never really cracked. 100 years ago Einstein taught us that it wasn’t as simple as our senses tell us. He was correct of course, we wouldn’t have GPS and a host of other technologies if he wasn’t. Yet we haven’t really internalized his insight. Not surprising I guess. For most folks it is still hard to internalize the fact that we live on a sphere. For most folks it is even harder to imagine that time is not a constant and that there is no such thing as “now”.

      1. Patient Zero, your post, two comments, and link have no connection whatsoever to my post which you replied to. So what the hell is your point? Did you really think you added some intelligence to the conversation?

        1. Gifts and generosity from self – isolation. Alcohol sales are up 75% down under.

          You are correct, completely irrelevant.

          As far as parallel universes go, Check out Hugh Everett and Richard Feynman ( path integral formulation).

          I think the idea origination of a literal interpretation of what the math was saying.

          no idea who is right or wrong.

          1. Patient Zero, are you shitting me? I happen to be well familiar with the works of both Everett and Feynman. Feynman never wrote about the many world’s theory.

            I am well familiar with the parallel universe theory. I have been reading about it for years. If you have some evidence, other than that the fact that it was first dreamed up by Everett, then please post it. But just dropping names like you know what the hell you are talking about just informed me that you haven’t a fucking clue as to what you are talking about.

            Everett wrote about parallel universes in his doctoral thesis and never wrote another word on the subject. In fact he never broached the subject again in his entire life. So what’s your point about Everett?

            However most cosmologist agree with Roger Penrose that the whole idea of parallel universes is total bullshit.

            Note: After Everett’s doctoral thesis introducing the many worlds theory, he was roundly criticized by everyone. This criticism had such a profound effect on him that he went to work for the defense department and never wrote another scientific paper as long as he lived.

            And no one else wrote a word about it either until long after both Everett and Feynman were dead.

    1. The new daily registered cases is on an undulating plateau, from the beginning of April. Somewhere between 70 and 100 thousand (covid19info.live). Before April the number of people that got infected was even higher, but less people got tested.
      Most infections stay (almost) asymptomatic and the question is how much immunity that builds.
      Asymptomatic cases can have viral shedding and there is the problem of false negative tests. So with only testing, tracing, isolating and physical distancing the new daily registered cases won’t go down a lot in countries with tens of millions of inhabitants.
      To be added has to be the obligation to wear masks in public transport, stores and indoor workplaces where a lot of people are.
      Not a coincidence that countries where that obligation is in place it is going much better, and with the economy reopened considerably

  23. Alimbiquated,

    Your explanation of exponential growth (somewhere above) was sort of on the right track but not strictly correct. The original exponential formula was y = ab^x where a equals the initial value (the amount before measuring growth or decay) and where b is a positive real number. Later in these growth and decay functions the b value (growth factor) was replaced either by (1 plus r) or by (1 – r) where r equals the growth or decay rate (most often represented as a percentage and expressed as a decimal) and x equals the number of time intervals that have passed. Now we normally use y=Ce^kt where C is the initial value of y, k is the proportionality constant; with k>0, we have exponential growth, with k<0, we have exponential decay. The constant e = 2.71828… is the unique base for which the constant of proportionality is 1. In fact, you must solve a differential equation to obtain this equation.

    All this is very different from how the human mind normally perceives growth: in linear (or arithemetic) fashion. It helps to think about the following two sequences of numbers, one of which shows linear growth and one of which shows exponential growth.
    • 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, etc.
    • 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, etc.
    In both cases, the numbers start out small and remain small (but growing) for a time. But very quickly, the differences between the top sequence (which is the linear growth we typically think of) and the bottom sequence (which is the exponential growth we're encountering now) become apparent. Exponential growth is so powerful not because it's necessarily fast, but because it's relentless. Without introducing a factor to suppress it, exponential growth is an infectious disease doctor's nightmare, particularly as more time goes on.

  24. He is surely an enemy of democracy [if it is not in his personal favor]
    CNBC-
    ‘President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to withhold funding from Michigan and Nevada for expanding their mail-in voting services … amid the coronavirus pandemic.’

    Yes, the divide among those who approve and disapprove of his behavior and conduct is similar in severity to the divide between those who approved and disapproved of slavery. It is epic.
    I do believe that if there was a convenient cleavage plane between red and blue zones, that a vast majority would vote for separate nations in a heartbeat.
    Which will it be, guns or brains, to settle the day?
    The wise among you will be the first to be forsaken.

    1. Hickory the country needs Americans like yourself to be and stay strong. The next six months until the election are going to be heart wrenching. Trump is just pure evil and mentally ill. Like taking care of your oldest ageing parent. You need to keep it together for the other. Someday this nightmare will be over.

      Election day is the last opportunity to get the car back on the pavement. Keep your eyes on the road.

      1. Thanks for good words HB, and it applies to you as well.
        I must admit that I am not at all optimistic on the outcome of the coming election.
        For example when I see the level of dialogue here it looks to me like the human ability to sort things out, individually and collectively, is on average just downright poor.
        You can sense the deep despair of all the confused minds that post here, as a symbol of the general public voter. They are so easier distracted and so filled with mis-conception. Its a sorry state filled with poorly educated voters, and its a broken democracy.
        Best luck wading through it.
        My efforts will be shifting towards more fruitful endeavors.

  25. Bad news, especially for parents and grandparents.

    CHILDREN FACE RISK FOR SEVERE COMPLICATIONS AND DEATH FROM COVID-19

    Children, teens and young adults are at greater risk for severe complications from COVID-19 than previously thought and those with underlying health conditions are at even greater risk, according to a new study.

    “The idea that COVID-19 is sparing of young people is just false,” said study coauthor Lawrence C. Kleinman, professor and vice chair for academic development and chief of the Department of Pediatrics’ Division of Population Health, Quality and Implementation Science at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. “While children are more likely to get very sick if they have other chronic conditions, including obesity, it is important to note that children without chronic illness are also at risk. Parents need to continue to take the virus seriously.”

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200511142153.htm

    1. All percentages and no actual numbers in that article. What are the actual rates for children, numerically? Let’s get things in perspective.

      Right now we have 326,500 deaths worldwide attributed to covid-19
      against a time period where normally about 30 million people die. That is about 1 percent of the normal death rate. Most likely quite a number of those 326,500 million would have died of other things anyway. But it is hardly a blip on the typical death rate.

      Children here are defined as those age five and under.

      “15,000 children die every day – Child mortality is an everyday tragedy of enormous scale that rarely makes the headlines”
      5.5 million children dying each year does not make headlines, but Corona panic media prompts major news when hardly any children die. Bur I guess the 5.5 million is not new so it is not news.

      At the peak death rate in the US, 10 people 24 and younger died of Covid -19 during week ending April 18th compared to about a total of 14,000 people of all ages that week. The week ending May 9th, 2 people 24 and younger died of Covid-19.

      Yes, a few get ill, almost no one dies below age 24. The fact is that just about all children and young adults will be or have been infected, this is a pandemic with no cure and no vaccine. Luckily most cases are asymptomatic to minor and almost all cases are survivable.
      Most certainly there will be mutations, but as of yet, the mutations are slow and similar enough that a second wave has not appeared, … yet.

      The connection between the inflammatory illness and Covid-19 seen in a few children is tenuous so far, but is of concern.

      1. I just read reports from (hopefully) reliable sources. Not remotely qualified to assess content. Sometimes it seems like information overload!

        1. “Time moves in one direction, memory in another.”
          –Gibson

      2. Exactly, if a certain medical condition is expected to show up in 1 in a million people of a certain age, there are bound to be hundreds of cases just simply due to the number of people on the planet. That doesn’t make the condition particularly notable, though. The problem is fear and doom sells well and attracts the sugar daddies who fund scientific research, which incentivizes the media to exaggerate the seriousness of the condition out of proportion.

  26. Last Known Footage Of A Tasmanian Tiger Shows What The World Has Lost

    The “precious” video hasn’t been seen publicly for 85 years and is believed to be the last footage of the extinct marsupial.

    The narrator of the black-and-white video says the thylacine is “very rare, being forced out of its natural habitat by the march of civilization. This is the only one in captivity in the world,” as keepers outside the bare enclosure rattle the cage.

    The thylacine was often described as resembling a cross between a large cat, a fox and a wolf, and, as a marsupial, it had a pouch like a kangaroo for its young.

    According to the Australian Museum, they were once widespread in continental Australia but became extinct on the mainland 2,000 years ago, likely as a result of competition with dingoes and human hunters.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-tasmanian-tiger-footage-released_n_5ec47694c5b65e2c45ebc275

  27. Any ideas on why Covid deaths follow a weekly pattern?
    Folks don’t seem to like to die on weekends. Is it just a reporting artifact? Hospital shifts? Coroner’s days off? Sabbath observance on the part of the virus, both Judaic and Christian?

    Also, children are known as ‘super spreaders’ when it comes to pathogens. Israel is preparing to send kids back to classrooms. This seems prime for accelerating spread amongst the young, who can then go home and kill grandpa.

    How much of the seasonal part of the seasonal flu is due to school not being in session?

    1. You’re looking at a reporting artifact.

      In the US, deaths are reported via death certificate, which are prepared by doctors and typically processed and transmitted by hospitals to state Departments of Public Health, which check for errors and make statistics available. All of that process slows down on weekends, and creates a blip on Mondays.

      Many deaths are outside hospitals, especially outside the US, and the accuracy of Covid reporting is very low in those cases. Overall, all-source mortality is currently much higher than normal in many places, including in the US. When you remember that other sources of death are temporarily being suppressed (traffic crashes, elective surgery, etc., ) you see that Covid mortality is badly under-reported.

      1. Thanks for the reply Nick. Makes sense.
        Glad to see you haven’t fled the premises. I enjoy your posts.

        1. Your welcome. And thanks!

          I’ve just been a bit busy lately – life is what happens while you’re making other plans…

  29. “One of the consequences of this explosive growth in human numbers is that human demands have outrun the carrying capacity of the economy’s natural support systems—its forests, fisheries, grasslands, aquifers, and soils. Once demand exceeds the sustainable yield of these natural systems, additional demand can only be satisfied by consuming the resource base itself. We call this overcutting, overfishing, overgrazing, overpumping, and overplowing. It is these overages that are undermining our global civilization” Lester R. Brown, in Full Planet, Empty Plates (2012).

    I bought one, but it’s worth a free read too. See free PDF downlaod.
    http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep

  30. Cotton was to the 19th century what oil was to the 20th: among the world’s most widely traded commodities. Cotton is everywhere, in our clothes, hospitals, soap. Before the industrialization of cotton, people wore expensive clothes made of wool or linen and dressed their beds in furs or straw. Whoever mastered cotton could make a killing.

    “This is a capitalist society.” It’s a fatalistic mantra that seems to get repeated to anyone who questions why America can’t be more fair or equal. But around the world, there are many types of capitalist societies, ranging from liberating to exploitative, protective to abusive, democratic to unregulated. Consider worker rights in different capitalist nations. In Iceland, 90 percent of wage and salaried workers belong to trade unions authorized to fight for living wages and fair working conditions. Thirty-four percent of Italian workers are unionized, as are 26 percent of Canadian workers. Only 10 percent of American wage and salaried workers carry union cards.

    Slavery was undeniably a font of phenomenal wealth. By the eve of the Civil War, the Mississippi Valley was home to more millionaires per capita than anywhere else in the United States. Cotton grown and picked by enslaved workers was the nation’s most valuable export. The combined value of enslaved people exceeded that of all the railroads and factories in the nation. New Orleans boasted a denser concentration of banking capital than New York City. What made the cotton economy boom in the United States, and not in all the other far-flung parts of the world with climates and soil suitable to the crop, was our nation’s unflinching willingness to use violence on nonwhite people and to exert its will on seemingly endless supplies of land and labor.

    As slave labor camps spread throughout the South, production surged. By 1831, the country was delivering nearly half the world’s raw cotton crop, with 350 million pounds picked that year. Just four years later, it harvested 500 million pounds. Southern white elites grew rich, as did their counterparts in the North, who erected textile mills. The American South rashly overproduced cotton thanks to an abundance of cheap land, labor and credit, consumer demand couldn’t keep up with supply, and prices fell. The value of cotton started to drop as early as 1834 before plunging like a bird winged in midflight, setting off the Panic of 1837. Investors and creditors called in their debts, but plantation owners were underwater. Mississippi planters owed the banks in New Orleans $33 million in a year their crops yielded only $10 million in revenue.

    Americans built a culture of speculation unique in its abandon. That culture would drive cotton production up to the Civil War, and it has been a defining characteristic of American capitalism ever since. It is the culture of acquiring wealth without work, growing at all costs and abusing the powerless. It is the culture that brought us the Panic of 1837, the stock-market crash of 1929 and the recession of 2008.

    There is some comfort, I think, in attributing the sheer brutality of slavery to dumb racism. We imagine pain being inflicted somewhat at random, doled out by the stereotypical white overseer, free but poor. But a good many overseers weren’t allowed to whip at will. Punishments were authorized by the higher-ups. It was not so much the rage of the poor white Southerner but the greed of the rich white planter that drove the lash. The violence was neither arbitrary nor gratuitous. It was rational, capitalistic, all part of the plantation’s design.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/slavery-capitalism.html

    Unrestrained capitalism holds no monopoly on violence, but in making possible the pursuit of near limitless personal fortunes, often at someone else’s expense, it does put a cash value on our moral commitments.

    1. HB asked: “Who are todays economic slaves” ?

      Nearly everyone – since sound money has been abolished and legal tender has taken it’s place. And while sound money didn’t work all that good either – issuing debt money which could increase exponentially and pushed future demand to the present – ensured a future collapse which would be massive and much more catastrophic.

      The Federal Reserve is neither – it is a privately owned Central Bank which issues fiat currency. At one time I was against the Fed – but now – in this situation – with this Planet deep into Overshoot – keep it flowing – more *FREE* stimulus for everyone to spend until it utterly collapses.

      I would prefer a Cooperative Society – but most Humans cannot make that transition. And face it – when a Government imposes taxes with the treat of confiscation for non-payment – well….

      “Feudalism was a combination of legal, economic, military and cultural customs that flourished in Medieval Europe between the 9th and 15th centuries. Broadly defined, it was a way of structuring society around relationships that were derived from the holding of land in exchange for service or labour”.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feudalism

      Yeah sure – buy some property – and you receive a “Title” – don’t pay your taxes – and WHOOPS – you just lost your Title – whether it be to land or modern fiat money. Your bank account has just been levied and confiscated – and your property has been confiscated for want of tax payments.

      Control is EVERYTHING – Ownership is NOTHING.

  31. Risk of Dying

    A new study has shown that the increased risk of dying in a year without Covid and with Covid is practically zero.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692

    Why?

    The reason is simple, people die every year. 50 million people world wide die every single year.
    9 million die each year due to water, soil and air pollution and the economic destruction of the global lock downs means there will be no money to fix these problems. For just a tenth of the cost of Covid lockdown every single human on the planer could have clean water. Saving 3 million lives each year.

    1. wayne, we had almost 100,000 die in 3 months, and that was with considerable efforts at slowing the spread. If no containment attempt- full herd immunity- in this country looks like a 1,400,000 million death toll, or so [assumes a 0.7% final mortality, with no vaccine in time and 60% infection rate to achieve herd immunity].
      Regardless of the actual number, its very big and very fast.
      So, it is not some trivial event as you like to portray it.
      Tragic outcome and choices either way.
      btw- I think your argument for just letting the virus run is compelling. But then again, I also think that there should be a 1 family 1 child policy enforced vigorously throughout the whole world, and that euthanasia and suicide should be both legal and encouraged by society. So you might not want to take my statement of support as a good thing.

      1. @EthicalSkeptic is presenting a lot of good data showing how COVID19 is fading away right now in a similar pattern as SARS did but in a compressed time scale where 1 day of COVID19 cases is equivalent to 40 days of SARS cases. Bottom line is continuing the lockdowns & sports cancellations is ruining the Dems chances of winning elections this fall. Even Newsom relented when he realized the people were turning on him with continuing the lockdowns meaning no chance of MLB or NHL & maybe NFL playing in California for the rest of the year.

        https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

        1. To his credit, Gov. Newsom at least woke up and figured out sabotaging the MLB season not allowing teams to play in their home stadiums, with or without fans, was going to be a disaster for him politically. We’re still waiting for Michigan’s governor to wise up and let the Tigers/Pistons/Red Wings/Lions back into their home stadiums before the damage is far too severe for the state to ever recover.

      2. Hickory

        My main feeling is that we are spending $300,000 to save each human life from Covid. Most of these are people, due to morbid obesity or very old age would die in the next few years anyway.

        Yet year after year 1 million children die from the most horrific diseases due to drinking infested water. The total amount of money stent globally preventing these deaths is a few tens of billions.

        The world refuses to spend $150 billion a year to provide clean water and proper sewage treatment for all humans, but it it will spend $30 trillion to protect 10 million mainly obese or rich old people.

        Anyway this virus is spreading and will infect everyone.

        https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

        As you can see poor countries cannot protect the poor, it is impossible.

        So we are destroying the jobs of millions and financial hopes of many young people and they will be very angry once they know they have been thrown to the wolves

  32. Real Utility. Turn vehicles from a liability into an asset.
    Potential EV buyers need to demand Bidirectional functionally… NOW. A battery odometer tracks the depletion warranty issue. https://chargedevs.com/newswire/are-teslas-models-3-and-y-already-capable-of-bidirectional-charging
    Honda also onboard. https://insideevs.com/news/371233/honda-charging-solutions-home-public-v2g/
    Also standardized design for field replaceable/modular/upgradable batteries. Current designs are unacceptable.

    1. I didn’t save the link, but I just read on a site devoted to ev’s that Tesla has already built in bidirectional charging or in other words , vehicle to grid capabilities in the Model Y without having announced doing so.
      This from a tear down of a new Tesla done by an electrical engineer who reverse engineered the computer to see what hidden capabilities it might have.

      If true, this will probably be a feature that can be enabled by an over the air update, presuming of course the owner is willing cough up some more cash to have it turned on, lol.

      If true, and I believe it IS true, then it will likely be announced at the so called Tesla battery day event which has been postponed with no date set yet, as far as I know.

      1. Hint.know your serial #. In 2 years you will see model Ys everywhere

  33. I believe the electric vehicle manufacturers will resist having standardized aka interchangeable batteries as long as they possibly can, which might be almost forever, lol.

    But if the general public comes to understand that this interchangeability is in ITS best interest, well then, interchangeable batteries will eventually be mandated by law, at least for some models.

    I’m personally very hesitant about buying an electric bicycle, although I would really enjoy owning one, and could save enough money by using it to pay for a cheap one in a couple of years, but I’m not buying….. because I don’t want to be stuck with outrageous repair and parts costs since nothing seems to be sufficiently standardized.

    1. Don’t wait. Electric bikes are great. Get one with pedal assist only, not throttle, it will get you fit(ter), and you’ll enjoy the hell out of it. I ride so much more now. All the time. And I’d expect there are great roads and trails around you, just like there are where I’m at. Mountain bike recommended.

      The cells are standardized, 18650’s. same cell as inside your DeWalt and other tools. The components are all standard. Bafang, Bosch, Brose, Shimano, and Specialized are the market leaders for motors, and they will all be solid on product support. My bike has a Brose motor, and it’s very quiet. Most of the time you can’t hear it; only under heavy load while climbing the steeps.

      1. Yes, the CELLS are standardized, but the batteries are NOT. I can buy a battery to fit any common vehicle, with a good warranty, for not much over a hundred bucks. I have a friend with a Thunderbird that calls for a battery that costs over twice as much……. because nothing else will fit the battery box, you have to pay double.

        Then there’s the lack of standardized wiring practices, etc.
        So if I pay a thousand bucks for a cheap electric bike, I’ll likely have to pay five hundred for a battery that costs a good bit less than two hundred to assemble. That Thunderbird battery is assembled from perfectly ordinary cells……. in an odd shape and size container.

        The manufacturer won’t provide me with a trouble shooting guide. Neither will Ford or GM, unless you pay thru the nose for bootleg manuals, but I can buy this data from All Data or Mitchell, for just about any auto, for thirty bucks for two years access online, and that’s for EVERY little wire and black box on the car, at least to the point I know what it’s attached too, and what the color codes are to follow the wires, etc.

        But eventually I expect to see good electric bicycles for sale at the same place I get lawnmower and chainsaw parts. This place stocks well known brand names, and keeps parts on hand, and has mechanics who can fix things.

        So far electric bikes just aren’t there yet, except maybe in major cities and then only for makes where three bicycles can cost as much as a new car. That’s a midday sun bright indication the industry is still in the boutique stage of development at least in the USA.

        All three bicycles, disassembled would fit in the truck of a compact car, lol. You don’t actually get much for your money when you buy an electric bike. Three hundred pounds or less for three of them versus over three thousand pounds of automobile, lol.

      2. I prefer Throttle in Cities where you have to break to survive. When you are tired you often try to conserve momentum sometimes taking risks. Also having torque for startup saves gear grinding and pleasant experience. Also, high cycle – toxic-free chemistry like LFP are typically larger diameter than 18mm. I pray for higher capacity cells like the 2070 and larger. The 18650 was initially for toothbrushes and laptops. Related: flashlight market. http://www.candlepowerforums.com/

    1. But modern social interaction is dilute anyway due to constant phone and text interruptions. The society was already self isolated before this happened. Most interactions are of low value anyway (hi how are you, fine, weather, etc.). People generally do not know how to interact, so what is there to miss? Most don’t appreciate the wonder, beauty and mystery that surrounds them.
      My two to four hours of social interaction every day did not change. One needs to make adult decisions about edicts rather than just mindlessly obeying.
      https://youtu.be/dC_lZLzCrOI

  35. Top Russian Microbiologist claims Wuhan lab ‘did absolutely crazy things’ in coronavirus research enabling it to infect humans

    “The lab has been at the centre of speculation in recent weeks after a theory emerged that the virus had originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This provided an alternative possibility to the initial belief that Covid-19 came from the nearby wet market…

    Chumakov, who works at the Engelhardt Institute of Molecular Biology in Moscow, has reportedly claimed altering coronavirus could have enabled it to infect humans, he clarified he did not believe it was the researchers’ intention to do this.

    The world-leading expert claimed scientists would have been aiming to create ‘variants of the virus… without malicious intent’, he also speculated they could have been aiming for a vaccine for something else entirely.

    Chumakov said the Wuhan team wanted to study the pathogenicity and not deliberately make a killer virus.”

  36. Planet of The Humans Backlash

    “McKibben and associates’ ability to frame the film as divisive rests on the stark power imbalance between the ‘green’ capitalist and degrowth outlooks. While there are few profits in the consume-less worldview, McKibben is situated at the progressive end of a network of organizations, commentators and media outlets empowered by hundreds of billions of dollars of ‘green’ capitalism. This milieu has counterposed solar, wind and biomass to the hyper fossil fuel emitting coal, natural gas and oil industries. But, they aren’t keen on discussing the limitations of their preferred energies and the fundamentally unsustainable nature of limitless energy (or other) consumption. And they certainly don’t want any spotlight placed on environmental groups ties to the mega-rich and an unsustainable model.

    But, in reality it’s not the criticism that bothers. Wrong Kind of Green, Death by Car, Counterpunch and various other small leftist websites and initiatives have long documented McKibben and associates’ concessions to the dominant order. Often more harshly than in the film. What is unique about Planet of the Humans is that these criticisms have been put forward by leftists with some power (Michael Moore’s name and the funds for a full-length documentary, most obviously.) In other words, the backlash is not a response to the facts or argument, per se, but the ‘mainstreaming’ of the critique.

    The environmental establishment’s ability to generate hundreds of hit pieces against Planet of the Humans suggests the movement/outlook has amassed substantial power. But, it’s not always clear to what ends. Most indicators of sustainability are trending in the wrong direction at the same time as top environmental figures have risen to the summits of power. Québec’s most prominent environmentalist, Steven Guilbeault, recently became a cabinet minister in the Liberal government while the former head of World Wildlife Fund Canada, Gerald Butts, was Justin Trudeau’s chief of staff. These individuals happily participate in a government that oversaw a 15 million tonne increase in Canada’s GHG emissions in 2018 and then decided to purchase a massive tar sands pipeline.

    The incredible popularity of Planet of the Humans– seven million views on YouTube– suggests many are worried about the ecological calamity humanity is facing. Many also sense that the solutions environmental groups are putting forward don’t add up.

    The lesson to be learned from the film and the frenzied attacks against it is that questioning the system– be that capitalism or the mainstream environmental movement– won’t make you friends in high places.”

    1. “The lesson to be learned from the film and the frenzied attacks against it is that questioning the system– be that capitalism or the mainstream environmental movement– won’t make you friends in high places.”

      Don’t question the “SYSTEM” because that is TABOO!

  37. Tesla has full-rate two-way charge/discharge system on board, so direct support for domestic and grid can be enabled. Add Tesla Energy’s domestic and utility generation and storage services and moves into domestic air con systems and lease access to full self drive functions all point to a massive integration of energy generation/distribution and transport capability.

  38. Believing that the Sars Coronavirus might have originated in a high tech Lab in Wuhan China – financed by Dr. Fauci and the US Taxpayers = Conspiracy Theory.

    Disbelieving that the Saudis claim to that Ghawar Oil Field has hundreds of years left for production at 10 plus MOB daily = Conspiracy Theory.

    It is – or it isn’t.

    1. Sars Coronavirus might have originated in a high tech Lab in Wuhan China – financed by Dr. Fauci and the US Taxpayers…

      I have no doubt that you believe that. But all that means is that you are a fucking idiot.

      Disbelieving that the Saudis claim to that Ghawar Oil Field has hundreds of years left for production at 10 plus MOB daily = Conspiracy Theory.

      I think you meant to write: Disbelieving what the Saudis claim…. I disbelieve that the Saudi’s make such a claim because obviously they do not. Saudi stated in 2006, 14 years ago, that Ghawar was almost 50% depleted.

      Saudi Oil Field Depletion Rates

      The oldest field, Abqaiq, is 74% depleted, and the world’s largest field, Ghawar, has produced just under 50% of its reserves.

      And they stated, last year, in their IPO that Ghawar was producing 3.8 million barrels per day.

      So you have no idea what the Saudis claim. You thought Saudi Arabia claimed that Ghawar produced 10 million barrels per day and could continue to do so for hundreds of years. Damn man, you are a dumb as Donald Trump.

      1. No doubt – I am confused – I should have checked your latest post for what the Saudis’ produce – and from where.

        I just know that Industrial Civilization has a certain “timeframe” to make the jump from exploiting a finite Planet with finite resources to that of a type 2 or 3 Civilization. If we fail to make that transition – we collapse.

        ” A Type I civilization, also called a planetary civilization—can use and store all of the energy available on its planet.
        A Type II civilization, also called a stellar civilization—can use and control energy at the scale of its planetary system.
        A Type III civilization, also called a galactic civilization—can control energy at the scale of its entire host galaxy”.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

        At some level – I understand your anger – because the difference between what we have become, and what we are – is the dichotomy of being a Human Being with 23 pairs of chromosomes – versus primates who have 24 pairs.

        In the end – we shall see what path is taken. Peace be with you – and thank you for the forum.

  39. Caelan —

    You might find this interesting (it’s from the folks over at ZeroHedge). I don’t pretend to understand economics but sometimes browse through the stuff, mostly because my Dad was dead against debt and we seem to be growing it “exponentially” these days. Some food for thought anyway?

    THE GLOBAL FOREST FIRE IS HERE

    “It drives you absolutely mad to see a whole world living a lie. How can anyone believe that the fake world the Fed and their fellow central bankers have created has anything to do with reality… There is a perception in the world that things will continue as they are and that the Deep State is going to control us all in a totalitarian world. What few realize is that the Deep State or Powers That Be are going to lose control totally. They are totally dependent on the world in which they can control everything through debt and the fake monetary system they have created. But let me make it clear that this fake system is about to implode.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-global-forest-fire-here

    1. One example, and yes I know Dennis will argue that it doesn’t matter but I’m not convinced.

      UK BORROWING AT RECORD HIGH AS VIRUS COST SOARS IN APRIL

      “Government borrowing surged to £62bn in April, the highest monthly figure on record, after heavy spending to ease the coronavirus crisis. It means the deficit — the difference between spending and tax income — was larger last month than forecast for the whole year at the time of the Budget.”

      https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52766487

      1. Doug,

        It may matter at some point, but in the US the reason the Great Depression was so deep was a failure of the Hoover administration to take on any debt. Debt might be bad, but a Depression is worse. Or that is my opinion, what did your Dad think about the Great Depression? My parents were fairly young, graduated high school in 1944 and 1945 so they were not responsible for a family at the time, would have been a scary time to be a young adult in 1933.

        2. Dennis

          The great depression was caused by people borrowing vast amounts of money that they could not repay.

          Now the US government and people are borrowing vast amounts of money they cannot repay.
          You continue to pat people on the head and say it is fine. You do not think there is anything to worry about because you do not understand it.

          You are like the economists in the 1920s who said this boom will go on for ever.

          and anyone who disagreed with them they dismissed.

  40. OFM –

    Some grist for your mill. ?

    FOOD SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY REQUIRES LOWER ENERGY USE

    Modern sustainability practices often encourage resource and energy efficiencies across separate sectors, such as food production or biofuels, but this siloed approach could actually lead to ongoing environmental decay, according to a recent commentary by researchers in the University of Georgia College of Engineering.

    Using the premise that energy is the “ability to cause change,” the authors note that energy consumption has increased significantly in the past 70 years, and it continues to grow. Essentially, an exponentially rising energy discharge creates exponentially rising environmental change. “One reason we fail to comprehend the gravity of these circumstances is that few really understand the fundamental concept of energy,”

    “Even as early as the mid-1800s, English economist William Stanley Jevons showed that an improvement of efficiency in engineering design often leads to increased energy and resource consumption rather than a decrease. Innovations allow technology to be more profitable, and lower prices lead to increased demand, as well as a more rapid depletion of resources.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-05-food-sustainability-requires-energy.html

  41. And finally, for the astronomy buffs among us.

    ALMA SPOTS TWINKLING HEART OF MILKY WAY

    “Astronomers using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) found quasi-periodic flickers in millimeter-waves from the center of the Milky Way, Sagittarius (Sgr) A*. The team interpreted these blinks to be due to the rotation of radio spots circling the supermassive black hole with an orbit radius smaller than that of Mercury. This is an interesting clue to investigate space-time with extreme gravity.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-05-alma-twinkling-heart-milky.html

    1. If you want to get into the realm of the strange – well then…….

      “Alexandria, VA – Since 1967, astronomers have been receiving and cataloging very precisely timed radio pulses coming from sources they call pulsars. They have long assumed these to be natural sources, exotic spinning stars that emit laser-like radio beams that sweep through space much like lighthouse beams. However, astrophysicist Dr. Paul LaViolette has found strong evidence indicating that these beacons may instead be of intelligent origin. He presented some of his findings at the January 2000 Meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Atlanta, Georgia.*

      LaViolette has discovered that a large number of pulsars are positioned so as to call attention to specific locations in the Galaxy that have symbolic significance from the standpoint of an extraterrestrial communication being targeted to our solar system. For example, one arrow-like grouping of pulsars is seen to extend along the galactic equator with its distal tip terminating at a point that lies one-radian of arc from the Galactic center.** This benchmark is particularly significant from the standpoint of Galactic ETI communication since the one-radian concept has a unique meaning within the context of plane geometry, a universal language that should be known to advanced civilizations throughout the Galaxy, and since it marks out an arc length equal to the distance from the center of the Galaxy to our solar system. It would be reasonable for an ETI communication to convey a knowledge of the Sun’s distance from the Galactic center if the message was meant for us. As if to provide further emphasis, the fastest pulsing pulsar in the sky, the Millisecond Pulsar, is found to closely mark this one-radian location. The probability of this happening by random occurrence is only one chance in 10 raised to the 4400th power. Lending even further weight to the ETI interpretation, LaViolette has discovered that this pulsar and a nearby pulsar which happens to be the second fastest pulsing pulsar in the sky, both make highly improbable geometrical alignments with this key location”.

      https://starburstfound.org/pulsars-may-intelligent-design/

      It will make for some interesting weekend reading – and as I responded to Ron above – can Human Beings make the jump from a Type 1 Civilization to that of a Type 2 or 3? Certainly some believe it is possible – as the FTI at UWM exisys – but this is way beyond my comprehension.

      “‘Founded in 1971, the Fusion Technology Institute investigates and assesses technological problems posed by controlled thermonuclear fusion reactors”.

      http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/

      Weekend reading and food for thought.\\

      1. Tim,

        Total bullshit. As a geophysicist I have followed neutron star research since the first pulsar was discovered by Jocelyn Bell in 1967. Even now, on average I spend two hours per day working on various equations-of-state for these objects and have several thousand scientific papers devoted to them starting with the 1934 report predicting their existence by Walter Baade and Fritz Zwicky. BTW There are there are about 2,000 known neutron stars in the Milky Way (and the Magellanic Clouds). Perhaps the most famous pulsar is located at the heart of the Crab Nebula, a supernova remnant noted in the year 1054 a.d. by Chinese and others. The intelligent life origin of pulsar signals was ruled out within days of Bell’s discovery (in 1967).

        1. When I was a child – I lived in an area situated between Urban and Rural. I played and chased insects in the former Hay Fields of Progressive Dairy – fodder for the Horses which pulled the wagons which delivered the Dairy Products.

          I used to go out into the Fields – fly kites – and wonder why there is Something when there should be Nothing.

          From here to there – since the natural Bat virus Covid-19 was exposed to Human Beings via a Wuhan wet market – Industrial civilization must be totally shut down to allow the virus to pass/. That the rate of acceptable losses must be controlled. Once the rate of losses is manageable – then BAU can continue.

          Either the Universe is slowly contracting into a slow heat death via entropy – or it is expanding via the OM – as the Hindu God Shiva demonstrates.

          The Michael Morely experiment which modern Physicists claim ends ‘Ether Physics” has been – in alternative research – shown to have been flawed.

          Can you answer me this – from my childhood question –

          Why is there SOME – thing, when there should be NO – thing.

          1. Tim E.

            I thought I’d point out that it’s not “Michael Morely”

            It was the Michelson-Morley experiment that failed to detect the luminiferous ether, and led to theoretical advances which showed the ether was an unnecessary construct, and eventually aided the development of relativity theory. Since it was first performed in the 1880s, it’s been repeated many times with different technologies. and increasing precision. It’s about as well grounded an experiment as you could hope for.

            I have heard of ‘alternative’ theories and philosophies trying to resurrect the luminiferous ether, but those theories are not based on science and have no technical underpinnings as far as i know.

            1. Odd, tho, that the ‘wave’ concept of propagation of light and electromagnetic energy rides on the fundamental requirement that a wave must have a medium to propagate through in order for the energy to get from one place to another. Just sayin’, in passing.

            2. Yes, it was obvious that the ether was a necessary medium for wave propagation, and that’s why the null result from Michelson-Morley was such a seminal event.

              Michelson and Morley were attempting to measure the characteristics of the ether, not arguing against it.

              Back then, the reaction to the experiment was ‘But .. but ..” It took a time to make sense of it all, but the physics that came out of it was consistent and explained many other quirky observations.

              Good science.

            3. Just FYI:

              Einstein failed in his quest for a Unified Theory.

              After having become famous for several brilliant breakthroughs in physics, including Brownian motion, the photoelectric effect, and the special and general theories of relativity, Albert Einstein spent the last thirty years of his life on a fruitless quest for a way to combine gravity and electromagnetism into a single elegant theory.

              https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200512/history.cfm

              There is no reason for SOME – thing, when there should be NO – thing.

              I don’t have any answers – but a lot of questions.

            4. Yup, and maybe there isn’t one.

              There are a couple of Unified Field Theories out there, but none are widely accepted.

              But the beauty of science is that it’s perfectly fine to say “We don’t know”, “We’ll have to wait for some better data”, or “Our state of knowledge currently doesn’t answer that.”

              So, just stand by, maybe some day we’ll have better answers leading to better questions.

            5. Thank you for the correction.

              There are those who still disagree with the conclusions of the experiment – and the manner in which it was conducted.

              The Universe is either expanding – via (to Humans) unknown means – or experiencing heat death via entropy. I have looked at both sides of the argument – and must admit – it is beyond me.

              There is no doubt that Nikola Tesla was a mad genius – but he made claims beyond what might be possible. Former Lt. Col Tom Bearden believed Tesla’s claims were true and that over-unity energy production was possible.

              Earlier – Ron addressed the strange findings of Science which found that there is (might be) a parallel universe moving backwards.

              The times are changing – as always. The more I search for answers – the more questions I have – the more I learn – I learn I know nothing. I’m going for a bicycle ride.

            6. Please use a consistent name. Now I have to block “tim e” as well as “Tim E”!

Comments are closed.