Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 21, 2020

D Coyne Uncategorized

Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread, please. This includes commentary on the pandemic. Thanks.

108 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, July 21, 2020”

  1. Copied over from the now dead thread.

    Hightrekker
    Ignored
    says:
    07/20/2020 at 8:27 pm

    Briggs & Stratton Corp., founded in Milwaukee in 1908 by an inventor and an investor, on Monday filed for bankruptcy protection.

    Things are getting interesting——
    Reply

    I don’t know anything about Briggs and Stratton, as far as company finances are concerned, but this company has been the biggest manufacturer of small engines in this country, to the best of my knowledge, just about forever.

    And up until maybe twenty years ago, these engines were the Chevrolet of the biz, reliable, durable, cheap, easy to fix, parts available instantly except for antique models, which took a day or two to come from a warehouse.

    Then the company started turning out crappy products supported more by advertising than by engineering standards, and people in the trades, who were getting to know the Japanese makes, started referring to them as Briggs and Scrap Iron.

    Kohler has gone down a long way down this same road, and all the other AMERICAN brands of small utility engines are pretty much history.

    I personally believe this has come about MOSTLY due to the habit of top level management focusing on short term results.

    It’s really easy to make a lot of money running on a solid century old reputation for a few years or even a decade or longer by cutting quality ……… until long term customers abandon the brand in disgust, never to return.

    But a huge part of the problem MIGHT that it’s damned easy for management on any given day, or any given year, to give in to employee demands for benefits to be delivered at some distant time…… by which time current management will long gone into retirement, or dead.

    Some cities in this country have fallen into this trap, having promised benefits to retirees that simply can’t be paid out of local tax revenues.

    Eternal growth in a finite environment just doesn’t happen.

    There are some REAL conservatives out there, believe it or not, who do worry about whether this country will be able to meet it’s future obligations in terms of Social Security, Medicare, and various other safety net programs and policies.

    Personally I’m NOT worried about it, because tax laws, etc, can be and will be changed, and the people who ARE worried never seem to stop and think about what today’s kids are going to inherit, presuming OLD MAN BAU is still hobbling along.

    With the population peaking and declining, we will need road maintenance but not new roads, etc.

    This observation will apply right across the board, in terms of most fixed infrastructure.

    Electrical, water and sewer grids will need maintenance, but very little in the way of new from scratch construction, ditto schools, shopping centers, housing for the most part.

    Today’s fairly new Mc Mansion can be not only be refurbished indefinitely, it can be upgraded in terms of energy efficiency to pretty close to net zero, in the future, for a SMALL fraction of the cost of new construction.

    And we will be able to work a few more years, as necessary, to post pone the necessity of switching from tax payer to tax eater. If we AREN’T healthier, it will be our own fault, as individuals.

    IF ( and this is a DAMNED big if) we manage to squeak thru the next fifty years, we won’t have to worry much about depleting natural resources in a country such as the USA. We’ll know how to recycle damned near everything economically, and how to live well without the few things we can’t recycle.

    1. Makes sense.

      One quibble: local governments have generally promised too much in pensions, mostly in the form of early retirements. But…they can afford to pay them. Mostly we’re seeing aggressive campaigns by fake conservatives to starve governments of adequate taxes. Then they blame deficits on pensions, and try to kill pensions entirely.

      There are, of course, more complex details, but that’s the gist of it.

      1. This is all based on an expanding resource base (capitalism).
        That is over.

        1. Hightrekker is right, in general terms. The physical resource base is depleting fast.

          But while the ship of industrial civilization is probably going to sink in the overshoot storm, there’s a very good possibility some of us will make it to port in the lifeboats.

          I personally believe that a great many countries will adopt a life boat survival strategy, holding onto as much as possible in the way of resources within their borders, severely or totally eliminating immigration, excepting maybe a few classes of professionals such as physicians, etc.

          I also believe that something approaching what’s referred to as a steady state economy IS possible, and that some technological, cultural, and economic progress is altogether possible within a SUSTAINABLE economy, although such change would probably be relatively slow.

          The real question in my mind, IF we once get past overshoot more or less whole in a few countries, is whether the recent dramatic fall in birth rates will continue.

          A shrinking population would be a GOOD thing only to a certain point. If the population of a country falls far enough, it might be impossible to maintain such an economy as I’m talking about…… with the result being that the country would revert to a preindustrial economy….. and if that were to happen, birth rates might shoot right back up.

          Academic abstractions, no more no less, these thoughts of course.

          Like the song says, there’ll be time enough for counting LATER.

  2. In the meantime, everybody should read this.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-could-happen-if-donald-trump-rejects-electoral-defeat?utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=tny&mbid=social_facebook&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR15cHIdFjnv0WS7n323VaplobaiwzQMz-DsJT60XQhjnNRbeT2yLjv2NN4

    I totally agree with it, except the one part about MOST of the firearms in this country being in the hands of people who would support a violent effort to keep trump in power.

    I know a hell of a lot of redneck hillbillies, and virtually ALL of us are well armed.

    I’m dead sure that not more than maybe one out of a dozen or so would even SERIOUSLY think about picking up his gun and ACTUALLY using it in support of trump and company.

    That one out of each dozen, max, would most likely get the living shit kicked out of him, as necessary, by friends and family members to keep him out of jail.

    Not many women even in this part of the world in my local culture are TRULY under the heel of their man, if they have one. Just about every single one I know would leave her guy, kids and all, if he were to actually take up arms and go to a riot.

    Standing around talking shit is one thing. Actually getting shot at is something else altogether, and even in the redneck south, the vast majority of us will NOT start a violent riot.

    MOST of the trump supporters I know are actually OLD, and two thirds of them are more or less committed Christians, when it comes to such questions as violence. ( Of course pointing this out is also pointing out, indirectly, that they’re not very big on critical thinking, lol. )

    There’s a HELL of a big difference between TALKING such bullshit, and actually engaging in it.

    Consider for instance how many mass shootings we have had. Each one is a major tragedy of course, but how many have there been? Maybe a dozen or so that were big enough to make the news over the last ten years or so are about all I can remember.

    That’s a dozen, or even if it’s two or three dozen, that’s a negligible percentage out of TENS OF MILLIONS of people who are well armed. You have to be SERIOUSLY impaired between the ears to go out and do such things as starting a riot in which YOU may well get shot.

    There’s SOME cops around who are corrupt enough to go for a trump coup, but I’m thinking even in a place such as a mob town, the very large majority of cops will NOT want to see large scale violence, given that THEY will NECESSARILY be on the front lines, either supporting it or putting it down.

    I’ve known a bunch of cops over the last fifty years plus, and while none of them were cowards, damned few of them were the sort who WANTED to get into fights, and damned near every last one of them would have gone a LONG way out of his way to avoid a gun fight. People get killed in gunfights.

    We’ll be ok imo so long as the Supreme Court remembers that kissing trump ass in a contested election means the END of the Supreme Court.

    The Justices themselves would be at risk PERSONALLY if they were to go that route, and they’re smart enough to know it. Their power would be gone , vanished, for the most part, because in banana republics, the strong man makes the rules….. and judges who don’t play by his rules don’t last very long at all.

    1. OFM, there are other scenarios that have the potential to make this winter a political shitstorm.
      If the election is rout in favor of Biden, it shouldn’t be a problem- the military will escort trump out (hopefully to Rykers haha ) if he refuses to leave voluntarily.
      But if the election is close, within 5%, or just a few states making the difference, then I would be astounded if Trump and his loyal republican governors, senators and the republican controlled supreme court do not make a full court press attempt to keep control.
      How could they do that, one should wonder?
      Governors and their state election officials could nullify tens of thousands of votes for technical reasons, like failure of ID verification. They could claim fraud. They could falsify results. Fabricate conspiracy theories. And many mechanisms that are beyond my imagination/scope of understanding. No guns needed.
      Just enough uncertainty, or the suggestion of uncertainty to give the congress and supreme court plausible reason to keep him in power.
      Remember, the bar is now so very low on ethical behavior in government that ‘plausible’ doesn’t have to be reality based or substantial whatsoever. Just spoken loudly and repeatedly.
      They now barely have to lift a foot to step over the bar of plausibility.
      When you own the supreme court and fox news, anything is possible.
      Need proof. Look at the fool who sits as leader.
      Look at the asshole who controls the senate.

      We will need a landslide to avoid a chaotic winter.
      Even so, Trump isn’t just about to disappear when he is defeated.
      He and his supporters will raise a hell of a ruckus.
      The republicans are going to have a hell of time getting their party back.
      They are on a short slippery path to very deep cesspool.

      1. Back atcha Hickory,

        I agree that if the results are close, the deranged orangutan and his homies will do just as you say. Between a potentially corrupt Supreme Court and an obviously corrupt R controlled Senate, things could get to be very dicey indeed.

        Let us pray that that courageous old woman Ruth Bader Ginsburg , who is all that’s standing in the way of another orangutan homey on the SC, lives long enough for the D’s to recapture the Senate.

        But I still don’t think more than a VERY few people even in the backwoods south will actually take up arms for trump. And for each one that might or will, if the cards fall that way, among the large sample I know personally, there will be several times as many who will refuse, except to make sure there’s NO LOCAL violence.

        People of the trump sort are mostly physically cowardly, old,physically decrepit, safe in their homes, and not much interested in having any fun, which IS a factor that makes rioting popular in urban neighborhoods, as I “read ” reality.

        I was around some people a few times who rioted back when I was young. The majority of the ones I talked to ( NOT DURING a riot, before or after. I wasn’t dumb enough to get my head busted by either a cop OR a couple of black guys looking for a whitey dumb enough to be within reach!)) saw it not necessarily JUST as a protest against whitey and his ways, but ALSO as an OPPORTUNITY to have a little fun, and maybe collect a little loot.Remember I’m a backwoods redneck born and bred after all, and have always known my way around redneck society. I’m also a child of the sixties, and at that time I had m my own wheels and a few dollars in my pocket.

        Now I wish I had went to Woodstock, lol. There wasn’t really anything STOPPING me, except classes, and I would have been able to catch up. So I was perched in a safe place a couple of times, taking it all in.

        The ones out there protesting and marching who really gave then or NOW give a shit DID NOT and WILL NOT burn down their own family and neighbors local businesses, or bust the windows and tote off the merchandise.We do have a hard core of redneck whites of course, who are in and out of jail, and they probably outnumber the hardcore redneck blacks in most places, excepting in cities that are mostly black. But they won’t be burning anything much, because the REST of THEIR community will “throw down” on them in a FLASH.

        I’m sure it sounds counter intuitive and even insane to say so, but redneck white society being armed to the teeth is basically a damned near battle ship armor type guarantee there WON’T be much in the way of riots in redneck white neighborhoods, villages, or cities, EXCEPT maybe in minority neighborhoods in such cities.

        I DON’T see whitey getting away with rioting in a black neighborhood in 2020. Blacks may not shoot their own, very often, for rioting, but I don’t see them refraining from shooting whitey, if he comes TO them, except maybe if he’s a cop in the company of MORE cops, or a soldier in uniform.

        Forty or fifty years ago, young black guys even on their own turf were at least a little bit deferential to white guys, most of the time, on average.

        Nowadays, you have to have a death wish to give a young black guy any shit on his own turf in a tough neighborhood. He’s at LEAST as likely to have his nine handy as you are, and he is damned sight more likely to use it, having LESS to lose, maybe NOTHING to lose, but a reputation to gain. You KNOW nobody is going to testify against him.

        Read the following paragraph as a story, but it has major elements of truth in it.

        There are at least two or three of the redneck sort close enough kin to me to be an embarrassment, lol. One’s in jail, and will be there another ten years no matter what, excepting his own funeral. The other two will work all night to steal a hundred dollars, net profit, where as they could make that much nightly if they were willing to hold down a regular job. They will beat a woman, write a bad check, deal a little meth, lie about a used car……. but they WILL NOT get themselves arrested for rioting.

        Nor will the rest of the family tolerate that. We have more or less shunned them already…….. and if it gets to be necessary, a few of us will go have a talk with them about how people who are rioting are at risk of seeing their own house burnt. Their wife/ live in woman moving back in with Momma and Daddy, and taking the little boy. Permanently. With the support of the juvenile judge and the cops. She’ll be taking the food stamps and rental assistance with her.

        The potential for a riot is reversed, racially, in your scenario, with virtually every real trump supporter willing to even THINK about rioting being a white redneck. Damned few of them are going to actually riot. They’re not situated properly. They live in scattered locations, where as minority rioters are concentrated in ghetto like areas of cities, etc.

        Most of them actually have a job,plus their criminal or black market sidelines, and will be fired if they don’t show up for two or three days running. Damned near all of them have something, and quite often a lot, to lose, where as the black people I talked to back in those days mostly DIDN’T have anything to lose, and a hell of a lot to gain, if they either changed the course of history, being a motivated leader, or a tv set if they were an opportunist. If you have nothing, a new tv was a lot back then.

        It’s hard to say about riots in black neighborhoods. The serious leaders won’t start them, but the redneck young male element might. If trump stays in, I expect riots in black neighborhoods.

        If the orangutan loses, no riots in black neighborhoods. Celebrations maybe.

        At any rate, I’m now pretty much convinced, barring MAJOR surprises in favor of the R’s that the D’s are going to mop the floor with them on election day, nationally.

    2. Here is what will happen if Trump refuses to leave the white house, even if the margin of victory is slim.

      Biden will be sworn in as President of the USA on January 20th. Trump will be a private citizen. Trump will be escorted out of the White House by the Secret Service.

      End of story.

        1. Trump will do anything to hold on to power. He is not interested in democracy and neither is most of the Republican party. Nothing is off the table. Even civil war. The country is flooded with guns. We are at war with Russia for our democracy and losing.

          1. That war ain’t over yet. There is a huge battle coming up November 3rd that the good guys are going to win.

            No, there will be no civil war. I know there are a lot of Trump racist out there with guns but America is slowly coming to its senses. In Arizona, gun control advocate Kelly is way ahead of gunslinger McSally.

            There is still hope. Don’t give up yet. The polls are really looking good.

            1. I understand were your coming from and agree with your statement about the polls. We don’t just need to win, but win big to stamp out Trumpism. I do have faith in most Americans but the the Republicans have a history of playing outside the lines of the law and supporting it.

              Biden 2020

        2. Hickory, I do have far more faith in our Democracy than you seem to have.

          if Trump and his loyal republican governors, senators and the republican controlled supreme court do not make a full court press attempt to keep control.

          First, the governors have no say so in anything concerning the federal government. Second, definitely not all Republican senators would support such a banana republic tactic. I would say far less than half would go along with it. And third, the Supreme Court is not necessarily Republican though five were appointed by a Republican President. I would bet any decision on Trump leaving if he is defeated would be unanimous that he go. However, Thomas and Alito just might support such a harebrained scheme.

          1. Ron,
            The governors and the state election officials do have a controlling role in their states election process, rules, counting and results certification.
            The federal laws give a huge level of control over voting to the individual states.
            Ex. Texas has declared that only those over 65, and those who are disabled, can use mail-in-balloting. Covid-19 pandemic is no excuse to request a mail-in-ballot for everyone else- they all must show up at the poll. Yes- this was a republican decision at the state level. And yes, when the legal challenge to that rule went to US Supreme Court, the ability of Texas to make the rule was upheld by the court along strict party lines 5-4.
            https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-mail-voting-all-texas-during-pandemic-n1232315

            These kind of examples are not hard to find.
            You have been around long enough to know about dozens of tactics to prevent blacks (and Hispanic citizens) from having equal voting access and counting.

            Yes, I do think our democracy is broken , very badly.
            The last two republican presidents did not win the popular vote.
            The republicans in congress did not allow Obama supreme court nominee (Merrick Garland) to be heard, even though they had 11 months before Trump was inaugurated.
            https://www.npr.org/2018/06/29/624467256/what-happened-with-merrick-garland-in-2016-and-why-it-matters-now
            And they now say that if there is a vacancy any day before before a potential Biden inauguration- they will hurry along a Trump nominee if a position becomes available.
            Yes, this democracy is broken badly, and this president and his supporters don’t give a shit about it, just their control.

            1. A new (to me) theory about the Electoral College, which seems to make sense: it was a device to give more power to slave owners. Slaves were counted in the census (although they were discounted 40%), which gave more electoral votes to slave states. And of course slaves couldn’t vote, so they had no influence over the electoral vote…

            2. It wasn’t JUST to give the slave states more power. There was a really serious and well dug in belief back then that the people themselves weren’t to be trusted to too great an extent, so the existing leadership liked doing things such as appointing office holders rather than electing them, etc.

              The electoral college was apparently partially justified by the belief it would help or could help prevent the rabble from getting too uppity.

              A similar thing played out with small states getting two senators, same as large states. This went a long way in getting the smaller states to go along with the ruling powers in the larger states.

            3. Yes, I know the governor’s power in elections, but I was speaking of after the election if Trump refused to go. The governors would have no power there. Everything would be up to Congress, the Supreme Court, and whatever the rest of the Executive Department decided to do. The governors and legislatures of the individual states would have no say-so whatsoever. Of course they could scream and holler, for whatever effect that might have.

              Yes, the government is broken right now, but it is repairable. We just have to get that blooming idiot of the White House before we can begin to repair this broken government.

            4. Hickory,

              A quick investigation suggested that the Texas ballot decision was a simple refusal to hear a case on a technical basis, and was supported by Sotomayor. It seems to be very temporary, doesn’t appear to have much importance.

            5. Well, the effect is that this election in Texas will not have mail in ballot option for those under 65.years old, barring disability, as the republican governor Abbott requested.

          2. I really do recommend reading the short article that OFM lead this discussion with-
            https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/what-could-happen-if-donald-trump-rejects-electoral-defeat?utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=tny&mbid=social_facebook&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR15cHIdFjnv0WS7n323VaplobaiwzQMz-DsJT60XQhjnNRbeT2yLjv2NN4

            “Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it,” Douglas writes. Worse, the peculiar institution of the Electoral College, which separates the outcome of the election from the popular vote, practically invites abuse.”

            I think the recipe for a tumultuous winter is in place.
            How would you feel, as a black or Hispanic person or Asian person, walking past a long line of assault rifle carrying masked men just to enter the polling station?
            43 states allow open carry of weapons at polling stations.
            “Open carry at polling places is especially troubling in this election’s heated environment, and many election officials around the country are preparing for armed voters at the polls.
            -Donald Trump has encouraged his supporters to “watch”polls on Election Day, alleging that the election is “rigged” and that voter fraud is a rampant problem across the country. Responding to Trump’s call, one supporter from Ohio has publicly stated that he plans to racially profile voters, boasting that he could make Mexican-and Syrian-Americans and other“people who can’t speak American” “a little bit nervous” while staying within the law.
            -In Virginia, many elections officers are concerned that the fiery rhetoric around this election could impact the atmosphere at the polls and are cognizant that open carry at the polls will be alarming to many voters.7Ø
            -In Colorado, polls workers in Denver and Aurora will receive active shooter training in preparation for Election Day as a result of the “raised” rhetoric of this election.-
            -Pennsylvania law allows people to openly carry guns at the polls, but generally does not allow peace officers to be within one hundred feet of a polling place during an election.

  3. Ohio Coal/Nuclear Bailout at Heart of $60 M Bribery Case

    Takeaway: The worst energy bill in the country turns out to be tainted with bribery. Fossil and nuclear industry involved.

    Allegedly.

    NPR:

    FBI agents arrested Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder on Tuesday morning at his rural farm. Householder was taken into custody in connection with a $60 million bribery scheme allegedly involving state officials and associates.

    Four others were also arrested: former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges, Householder adviser Jeffrey Longstreth and lobbyists Neil Clark and Juan Cespedes.

    The charges are linked to a controversial law passed last year that bailed out two nuclear power plants in the state while gutting subsidies for renewable energy and energy efficiency….

    https://climatecrocks.com/2020/07/21/ohio-coal-nuclear-bailout-at-heart-of-60-m-bribery-case/

  4. Austin TX will be the site of the next tesla electric vehicle gigafactory-
    “The Austin factory, Musk confirmed, will assemble the Cybertruck, the Semi, and Model 3 and Y for the Eastern half of North America”

    They now have over 650,000 pre-orders for the cybertruck.
    Not my style, but very impressive

    1. Gail understands very little, and she makes her living giving her canned presentations to paying audiences who know and understand even less.

      I was at one of them once. If you know little or nothing about the real world, she’s very persuasive.

      If you know a good bit,and ask a serious but not obvious question, she can’t handle it. She’s LOST if she is forced off script.

      BUT nevertheless, transitioning away from fossil fuels is an EXTREMELY tough job, and an extremely chancy job, because we don’t have a unified, scientifically literate leadership which could at least POTENTIALLY get the job done, given time.

      But they do say God looks after little kids, drunks, and the USA, so maybe He will send us some Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events sufficient to get us motivated and working, before it’s REALLY too late, on a war time economy basis.

      We shouldn’t underestimate the power of LEVIATHAN, the nation state awake and in fear for its own continued existence.

      If we were to go to a wartime type effort, we could easily manage the job, in principle at least, in countries such as the USA. Hell, just a quarter of the world wide military budget redirected to the job would likely be enough to get the job done WELL before depletion does it for us, and maybe even before the climate goes totally nuts.

      I’m not a pro in any field other than my own two professions, education and agriculture, but I HAVE read hundreds of serious history books, and historians have something to say about such transitions.

      SOME of us or some countries, will likely manage the transition, with great deal of luck and a hell of a lot of hard work.

      MOST countries WON’T, because the necessary leadership won’t be there, and the necessary human and physical resource base essential to getting the job done doesn’t exist, in more cases than not.Such countries fail in the short to medium term. In the long term, they might eventually succeed.

      We have a fair to good shot in a country such as the USA, because we have an existing substantial industrial base, plus enough literate people, and enough money, if we spend it wisely, to transition successfully.

      But it’s just about guaranteed that it’s too late already for most of the really hard up countries of the world. People in such places as India are going to die hard by the tens of millions, barring miracles, until the population in a given area has fallen off enough that the remaining people will still be able to feed themselves.

      And depending on how bad the climate gets………. there will very likely be many places now supporting people by the tens or even hundreds of millions where nobody will be able to produce enough food to live.

      It’s theoretically possible that the scientists at the cutting edge of biological engineering might be able to develop crops that can withstand the expected conditions.. but the odds against success are high, given the scope of the job and the time available to accomplish it.

      And the odds of there being resources enough available to help poor countries make the switch to such new crops, and new methods of growing them, are slim to zero.

      1. Gail is also a Cabbage for Christ.
        It is hard to take any religious nut seriously.

      2. I looked through most of her bullet points. It’s remarkable how unrealistic most of them are. For example point 1 is that a complete “reset” of our energy economy is impractical. Well duh! She seems to completely misunderstand what people are talking about: people are arguing for a redirection of investment, not shutting down the current economy like turning off a computer.

        The rest of her points are equally unrealistic.

  7. When it comes to bullshit, big-time, major league bullshit, you have to stand in awe of the all-time champion of false promises and exaggerated claims: religion. No contest. Religion easily has the greatest bullshit story ever told. Think about it. Religion has actually convinced people that there’s an invisible man living in the sky who watches everything you do, every minute of every day. And the invisible man has a special list of 10 things he does not want you to do. And if you do any of these 10 things, he has a special place, full of fire and smoke and burning and torture and anguish, where he will send you to live and suffer and burn and choke and scream and cry forever and ever ’til the end of time!

    But He loves you. He loves you, and He needs money! He always needs money! He’s all-powerful, all-perfect, all-knowing, and all-wise, somehow just can’t handle money! Religion takes in billions of dollars, they pay no taxes, and they always need a little more. Now, you talk about a good bullshit story. Holy Shit! … There is no God. None, not one, no God, never was.

    George Carlin

    1. ” ….where he will send you to live and suffer and burn and choke and scream and cry forever and ever ’til the end of time!…”

      you forgot the ” but he loves you” bit

      🙂

    2. You shouldn’t underestimate the power of prayer. There’s been survey’s done about how it’s a good thing for everybody’s mind and body. God will provide if you give Him the chance.

      1. Yeah, and if you don’t give him that chance he will send you to live and suffer and burn and choke and scream and cry forever and ever ’til the end of time!… But he loves you. 😉

      2. JoeJoe,
        perhaps you can get spiritual and physical benefit from prayer,
        but you certainly can do that without invoking a make-believe ideology and giving power/money to the Big Company (the Church and its men).

        Take a quiet walk, listen to music or birds or the water in a stream.
        Pray to the sun, or to wheat. Or buckwheat (my preference).
        Cherish the living planet.
        Do any of us need more motivation that that?

  8. This Covid-19 thing is getting really scary. The number of cases just keeps increasing and increasing. There have now been over 15 million cases, 9.3 million of them still active. Yesterday the number of cases increased by over 280,000, a new all-time high for new cases. Over 7,000 died yesterday as deaths are on the rise also.

    There is no doubt that things are getting a lot worse. The only question now is just how bad will it eventually get? Worldwide that is?

    1. Even more scary as we know it is under-reported… The evolution in India is out of control, still following perfect exponential trend…
      In Europe, the second wave is growing with different actions to take to try limiting the number of new cases…
      Wearing a mask almost everywere you can, keep social distancing at > 1.5 m or > 5-6 feet, wash your hands regularly and limit the number of contacts you have!

      1. On masks, I read about a study that tested effectiveness.
        The main point was that effectiveness dropped as much 50% if there was a 1% gap at the edges.
        Tight fit is key, material composition of the layers not so important.

        1. Hi Hicktory, what you say is true for FFP2 masks that aim mainly at protecting yourself: you want to protect you from infectious particles (SARS-Cov-2, Flu, or others) by filtration of the air you breathe.
          Surgical-like masks aim at protecting others from you and are almost equally efficient than FFP2 masks for that purpose. If everyone wear such surgical-like masks, everyone will be protected at a very low cost.
          That’s also a tricky part related to social consciousness: by wearing those masks, you only protect others from you, you are not protected yourself. This is only when every one wear a mask that you are also protected from all others…

          1. As I understand it, surgical grade masks are still in short supply.
            And the key with surgical masks, as with others, is still tight fit.
            In the hospitals they do a fit test for each person.
            I’m sure Survivalist could enlighten us on this.

  9. So, the climate won’t warm as much as we feared – but it will warm more than we hoped.

    AFTER 40 YEARS, RESEARCHERS FINALLY SEE EARTH’S CLIMATE DESTINY MORE CLEARLY

    An assessment, conducted under the World Climate Research Programme and publishing this week in Reviews of Geophysics, relies on three strands of evidence: trends indicated by contemporary warming, the latest understanding of the feedback effects that can slow or accelerate climate change, and lessons from ancient climates. This study supports a likely warming range of between 2.6°C and 3.9°C.

    “The new study is the payoff of decades of advances in climate science,” says James Hansen, the famed retired NASA climate scientist who helped craft the first sensitivity range in 1979. “It is an impressive, comprehensive study, and I am not just saying that because I agree with the result. Whoever shepherded this deserves our gratitude…

    In recent years, another uncertainty in the climate future has also narrowed: Global emissions seem unlikely to reach the worst-case scenarios IPCC helped craft 15 years ago, ruling out some forecasts of extreme warming. WE’RE LIGHT-YEARS AHEAD OF WHERE WE WERE IN 1979. UNFORTUNATELY, THE YEARS OF WORK NEEDED TO ATTAIN THAT CERTAINTY CAME WITH A COST: 4 DECADES OF ADDITIONAL EMISSIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING, UNABATED.”

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/after-40-years-researchers-finally-see-earths-climate-destiny-more-clearly

    1. Thanks Doug,

      If the mean estimate (3.25 C for climate sensitivity) proves roughly correct and long term atmospheric CO2 (over next 400 years) stabilizes at about 440 ppm (1000 Pg C emissions from all anthropogenic sources), that would imply about 2.1 C of warming above pre-industrial mean temperature. We will need to do better than 1000 Pg of carbon emissions or find a way to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Planting trees where they will grow can remove some carbon, better farming practices might help, perhaps carbon capture and storage, but burning less fossil fuel may be the cheapest solution.

      1. Dennis- at current trend the world atmosphere will reach 440ppm in about 9 years (+/- 3).

        1. Hickory,

          The level only remains that high if emissions continue, eventually emissions will slow down and possibly stop (those from fossil fuel and land use change).

          The model I use assumes peak emissions in 2024 and a gradual decline to zero in 2098 and no emissions thereafter (or any special measures taken to remove CO2 from atmosphere). Atmospheric CO2 peaks in 2066 at 484, note that climate sensitivity reflects the average temperature of planet after the ocean has warmed to equilibrium, a process that takes roughly 400 years. By 2400 CO2 has fallen to 440 ppm and falls very slowly thereafter reaching 434 ppm by 3500 CE.

          1. Does that emissions peak include coal, nat gas and wood burning, as well as oil?
            And what are some of the key assumptions for that outcome?
            2024 peak must invoke some sort of restriction on nat gas and coal burning, beyond geologic.
            Thanks

            1. Hickory,

              Peak lines up with my medium fossil fuel scenarios, it is also assumed that solar, wind, evs, etc gradually become cheaper than fossil fuels and replace them.

              Scenario for CO2 emissions below, it was done in 2015 (data available through 2014) and underestimates CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2018.

  10. Just about everybody in a forum such as this one likes to make fun of religions, but at least a few of us know enough to understand WHY the exist, and WHY they persist.

    Religion is an evolved artifact of sorts of the way social psychology works.

    Social animals, including humans, range from alpha to omega, in terms of dominance and social status.

    We look up to our leaders, and it’s interesting and TOTALLY relevant to note that we don’t necessarily need to ever actually SEE our leaders. Most trump fans for instance have never seen trump in person, and never will.

    Most of the people who look up to leaders such as MLK and Gandhi will never actually lay eyes on them. Ditto Hitlers, etc.

    A leader can be imaginary. I strongly suspect that most of our leaders, good, bad, or indifferent, and are not actually very much like we IMAGINE them to be. I like Biden, but I don’t know shit from apple butter about him, other than what he’s stood for, politically, over the years. He may pull the wings off of flies for fun and pick his nose for all I actually KNOW about him, to paint an extreme picture.

    Religions are glues that hold families, cultures, societies, and even nations together. They confer survival benefits, which is why they persist. The practitioners or followers of a particular religion tend to be more successful than otherwise, compared to other people under similar circumstances……. or at least this has been the case in the past.

    Now that modern societies have evolved to the point, and gotten rich enough, they are slowly but surely displacing religion by taking over some or all of the essential functions of the various churches, such as maintaining order, providing charity for the sick, providing at least rudimentary education for some followers, administering society, etc.

    You don’t have to go to church these days, or even kiss a preachers ass ( or penis, so far as that goes) to get some food if you’re out of work. The local social services department will provide you with food stamps. The hospital will take you into the ER without any money. Etc etc.

    And PLEASE, let’s not forget that “nobody ever went broke or wrong overestimating the ignorance and or stupidity of the public”…….. paraphrased.

    Many many people known to me personally are much much better behaved because they were taught in church to honor their parents, not covet what isn’t theirs, don’t screw the neighbor’s wife, pay their taxes, put something aside for a rainy day, live modestly, and BE AFRAID…… of burning in hell of course.

    In The Brothers Karamazov, there’s a super famous quote spoken by one of the principal characters.

    If there’s no God, anything goes.

    THINK about that. THINK hard.

    We don’t HAVE any real honest OBJECTIVE standards by which to judge our behavior, in a very real sense of the meaning of these words.

    SOME of the people who were sold into slavery in this country were very likely the OWNERS of slaves back in their original homes.

    Some cultures consider it not only manly but mandatory to fight to the death over a trivial insult.

    There are people known to me who consider practicing charity a JOKE, unless maybe the recipient is a relative, or a desirable female.

    Just who was it, originally, who told us we should love our brother man?

    Now of course I MYSELF have read the basic evolutionary psychology textbooks, so I know that I’ve overdrawn this picture, and that there is such a thing as OBJECTIVE morality, because other animals practice it, and humans practice it. But it’s DAMNED flexible in what it allows, or does not allow, depending on circumstances.

    It’s always best to look at things as best we can from an entirely objective pov, if we want to UNDERSTAND things.

    1. “If there’s no God, anything goes. ”
      Sorry OFM, but I wholeheartedly reject that assumption. It a pre-Bronze age assumption.
      No need to invoke a “God” to teach children to be good citizens. They (we) need good role modeling and, apparently, constant reminders of what being good is.
      It (a role model) need not be some mystical or unachievable deity.
      Just a average person learning to make choices that prioritizes kindness , cooperation, and stewardship of community and earth. The message should be- You can achieve this. Yes You.
      Praying to a god hasn’t stopped hurricanes, genocide (the Germans have been said to have been the most religious nation in Europe prior to WWII), or cancer.
      Ethical behavior can be taught without any make-believe machinations, or choosing of teams.
      In fact, I submit those machinations and team conflict are a massive diversion and distraction from the goal of teaching people to be simply on good behavior.
      two cents.

      1. “If there’s no God, anything goes. ”

        Bullshit. Get your kids a dog or a pony to look after and they’ll have a much better chance of growing up with good values than wasting their time sitting in a church listening to silly fairy tales. At its best religion is benign, at its worst, a form of terrorism.

        1. “It is the highly secularized countries that tend to fare the best in terms of crime rates, prosperity, equality, freedom, democracy, women’s rights, human rights, educational attainment and life expectancy. —–And those nations with the highest rates of religiosity tend to be the most problem-ridden in terms of high violent crime rates, high infant mortality rates, high poverty rates and high rates of corruption.”

          “Take homicide. According to the United Nations’ 2011 Global Study on Homicide, of the 10 nations with the highest homicide rates, all are very religious, and many — such as Colombia, Mexico, El Salvador and Brazil — are among the most theistic nations in the world. Of the nations with the lowest homicide rates, nearly all are very secular, with seven ranking among the least theistic nations, such as Sweden, Japan, Norway and the Netherlands.”

          So Religion=Violence and Crime

        2. A pet is lovely and all, but won’t give a child a moral foundation.

    2. If there’s no God, anything goes.

      THINK about that. THINK hard.

      I am thinking about it Mac. And I know if I am bad he has a special place, full of fire and smoke and burning and torture and anguish, where he will send me to live and suffer and burn and choke and scream and cry forever and ever ’til the end of time! But he loves me Mac. And he even loves those whom he sends to his torture chamber to scream and cry and beg for mercy forever and ever. But he will have no mercy.

      THINK about that Mac, THINK hard!

    3. “Just who was it, originally, who told us we should love our brother man”

      That goes back to 8700 BC
      She lived in a small village in what is now Senegal.
      Ironically, the vast majority of her decedents were killed in the Slave industry,
      by Christians.

      1. Hi Hickory,
        I was willing to bet you it would be either you or Ron who pointed out that Christianity is a relative newcomer as religions go.

        But Christianity is the only religion most religious people in the USA know about,lol. To THEM, Christianity is the original and ONLY true religion. It REALLY pisses off observant Christians when libtards make fun of their mores, coopting what they please without acknowledging Christian values, some of which are of course abhorrent to most modern people.

        BUT it’s perfectly true that I very seldom ever hear a modern progressive liberal acknowledge that THOU SHALT NOT STEAL, etc, is taught in Sunday school, lol, that thou shalt not kill, ditto, etc.

        Up until very recently, it has obviously conferred substantial additional fitness or survival value to it’s followers, on average.

        It even confers such value on nonbelievers such as myself. I get along much better in my community by playing along. I’m less likely to be murdered or robbed because some of the potentially most violent members of local society refrain from robbery and murder due to fear of that everlasting fire, lol. Some of the pious old women come by to visit with my bedridden old Daddy. The church where most of my deceased relatives reside, waiting for Jesus six feet down, where it’s always cool, never hot, never cold, always gets up a care package for anybody in the neighborhood who has a fire or accident.

        Along with the myths, the Sunday school classes teach little kids to be nice to each other, to honor their parents, to refrain from stealing, to pay their taxes, to live modestly and save for rainy days, refrain from drinking, stay away from drugs, work hard at school, EXCEPT biology and science classes are seldom mentioned, lol.

        Of course none of these behaviors are unique to Christians. But they certainly do seem to be more common among observant Christians than among the citizenry as a whole.

        Having said all this, the Christian church as we know it today is fading out fast as a political power in the USA, because the older folks who take the myths seriously are dying off at ever increasing rates, and the younger folks who do attend church are having only one or two kids per couple, as a rule. Those kids have internet in their back pocket, and watch Star Wars movies, etc. They aren’t growing up taking the myths seriously.

        And the welfare state is fast displacing the church as the last resort of people in trouble, whether it be violence, drugs, lack of food or shelter, etc.

        The Republican Party, with Trump at it’s head and holding a gun to that head, is doing more to DESTROY Christianity in this country than OLD SCRATCH himself, lol.

        But at least a FEW observant and serious Christians I know have come to realize that trump IS Old Scratch, lol, and that the R’s are making fools of them in the worst possible way, because by following trump, they are denying the true fundamental values of their religion.

        Not only that, trump and company are causing younger people to turn away from rather than toward the church in ever increasing numbers.

        BELIEVERS believe that God works in mysterious ways. They will interpret recent history, a few years down the road, something along this line.

        God got thoroughly pissed at us Americans, and set things up so we could REALLY worship money and power, since they were doing that already, by sending them trump, to punish the people of America, because of our collective sins.

        The real Christians will be left few in numbers, but PURIFIED and safe in the hands of the Lord until the Second Coming, and will remind their youngsters not to fall for the Anti Christ in disguise.

        Rinse and repeat.

        A new generation of preachers will make fools out of them again, presently. The two oldest professions, preaching and whoring, have a hell of a lot in common.

        THE POINT of this rant, it case anybody reads it, is that there’s PLENTY of opportunity for progressives to ally with Christians, politically, to get SOME parts of the progressive agenda moving.

        Believe it or not, there is such a thing as a thinking Christian, and such people often believe in PRESERVING the natural world, rather than exploiting it, lol. Such people believe in poor people being able to go to the doctor.

        Such people believe in free school lunches for poor kids.

        Making fun of Christians as a GROUP doesn’t win over any trump voters.

        1. “Along with the myths, the Sunday school classes teach little kids to be nice to each other, to honor their parents, to refrain from stealing, to pay their taxes, to live modestly and save for rainy days, refrain from drinking, stay away from drugs, work hard at school, EXCEPT biology and science classes are seldom mentioned.”

          It’s amazing (a Miracle?) that five generations of non believing Leightons, without the benefit of Sunday school classes, managed to teach their kids to be nice to each other, to honor their parents, etc. I was once told that I’d never be allowed in Heaven because I was never baptized. None of us were. Guess we’re leaving space behind the Pearly Gates for more deserving souls?

          1. BTW given the frequency of molestation of minors by members of the clergy how quick would you be to entrust ANY church with the care of your kids? I highly recommend you read Betrayal of Trust: Clergy Abuse of Children by Annie Laurie Gaylor, published by the Freedom From Religion Foundation in 1988. Her book documents the patterns of denial, inaction, cover-up, collusion, “forgiveness of sins,” and blame of victims endemic in many church congregations and denominations. Sadly, it seems all too little has changed since the first public exposure of pedophilia by priests and pastors.

          2. Well said, Doug!

            I’m not out to DEFEND any religious dogma, regardless of it’s content or origin.

            I AM however trying to get anybody who reads my rants to LOOK AT THE ISSUE OBJECTIVELY, in a RATIONAL manner.

            You are a well educated man. You would never make fun of a physicist who knows his professional shit.

            So WHY do you refuse to consider the view point of a professional biologist, anthropologist, political scientist, historian, evolutionary psychologist, etc, whose work contributes to UNDERSTANDING WHY people believe in religions?

            THE answer, objectively speaking, as to WHY religions exist and persist, is that they CONFER SURVIVAL VALUE to or on their adherents, under typical historical conditions.

            It never ceases to amaze me that people like you are too fucking dense to understand such an obvious fact, and thus discuss the issue in a rational rather than emotional way.

            I suppose you would rather continue to make fun of people such as my parents, lol, and therefore feel intellectually and morally superior to them, and lose the fucking election coming up.

            NOW do you get it?

            Even the dumbest back woods Bible thumping hillbilly is smart enough to know when you’re making fun of him, and will forever hate your guts and your politics and your environmental agenda simply BECAUSE you are making fun of him.

            Is that so hard to understand?

            Now as it happens, I try hard to understand the role religion has played, is playing, and will play in American politics in the future, and I have made my opinion clear that I believe the power of the church in this country is waning fast, although this is not yet obvious to most people. It WILL be obvious however within another two election cycles to anybody paying attention.

            If you will get off your high horse, and read a book or two such as HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE, etc, you just might have CLUE as to how to go about winning over some new voters, lol.

            I presume you understand that pretty soon, both you and I will be known as DWEM’s dead white European males, lol, although neither of us are apt to ever be mentioned in a history book.

            People evolve over time, in their mores, values, way of life, etc. Now as it happens, I still have some respect for the ancient Greeks and Romans, the ancient Egyptians and so called founding fathers of my own country, etc, even though they were very very wrong, by contemporary standards in terms of their owning slaves, etc. ALMOST everybody I have any real respect for, historically speaking is a DWEM. This is because they are the people that WON the day, during their day, and for better or worse shaped the world I live in today.

            ( My own ignorance is also important in this matter, since there are countless historical figures worthy of respect I’ve never even HEARD of, in other cultures of course)

            Religions change too. I can’t even remember the last time I heard a preacher mention a witch or warlock, etc, or even criticize a young attractive woman for wearing a short skirt.

            I can’t remember any preacher ever preaching a sermon about what to grow in each field, or not eating pork, or any other dietary taboo….. etc.

            The last time I heard about a local snake handler was forty or fifty years ago.

            You have a choice. You can either work to bring people together again, or you can paradoxically continue as currently, and help trump and his homies do their dirty work……. driving us apart.

            It’s time the progressive scientifically literate people of the world faced up to reality.

            RELIGIONS EXIST. RELIGIOUS PEOPLE EXIST. You might as well bitch about the existence of deserts or ice caps or mosquitoes.

            Do you want more friends, or more enemies?

            Of COURSE it’s quite common for people to be taught mores and values in a secular environment, as in your case. That doesn’t mean that learning values and mores in a religious environment is any less legitimate.

            Lets not forget that lots of elections are decided by as few as half a dozen votes, in local races, and by as little as one quarter of one percent or so in state level races.

            1. My mother was religious, my father was not, but my father helped build the church, took part in church events every week, etc.

              That slowly led me to believe that the value of religion was in developing community. Someone who attended a megachurch in the southern US described how it could be an all-day event, with the service followed by food and gatherings in the parking lot, and how for some of the attendees, it was the only social event of the week.

              Morals and values develop as a response to people living together in groups, and I’ve never been sure that religion added anything beyond the tribalism involved.

              But it seems a difficult thing when religion and politics combine, and no easy way out that doesn’t lead to simmering resentment. The same when culture and politics combine in an aggressive in-your-face way. Things just get tribal.

              Apparently a system of laws is a way out, but that starts to be problematic when the political system becomes tribal, and each and every tribe starts to question the fairness and legitimacy of the courts.

              (I think there’s broad agreement that a system of laws can be successful (?) if it unfairly treats only a minority of the tribes, but runs into problems when all tribes feel they’re treated unfairly.)

              I think there’s applicable history here of the colonial powers attempting to implement a system of justice in tribal cultures, often without much success.

        2. OFM-
          I believe in freedom of religion….,
          and freedom from religion.

          What I do not believe in one person or group trying to push their religion on another, whether it is Islam, Christianity or whatever. That crosses the line of acceptability.
          It is an intrusion at least, and it is genocide at worst (and that is not theoretical).
          And I do not believe in in using religion as an excuse for things we would not tolerate elsewhere in society- pedophilia, extortion of money from the poor, tax avoidance schemes, the wholesale teaching of children blatant lies, and severe expressions of racism, for example.
          So feel free pray, but please give me warning so I can excuse myself first.

          1. Well said. Might also be a good idea to NOT expose children to religious indoctrination. Why not let the little tykes grow up and make up their own minds without a “Fear of God” programmed into their impressionable minds?

          2. Modern religions are meme sets.
            Ones “choice” is often not an option.
            Humans are a medium of replication.

        3. I think many Christians make it easy for their beliefs to be viewed skeptically.

          They profess certain beliefs but don’t live by them. There’s the obvious ones like feed the hungry, clothe the naked, etc.

          The Christian support for Donald Trump and others isn’t based on his Christian beliefs (which he doesn’t seem to have), but seems to rely more on a hoped-for political advantage.

          I know a number of Christians that I like, and who live by what they preach.

          I lost my religious sentiments as a teenager, but greatly admire Jimmy Carter, for example, who still lives by his.

  11. What would Jesus do? Stop flaring Methane? Texas says stop it.
    “Yet these billions of cubic meters of unwanted gas costs money, even if the global gas market is currently oversaturated.” NG never liquid at room temperature. Only 2 options for many. Liquify on-site and (truck?) to market or convert to electricity and grid export. There was some noise about LNG railcars a few months back. Pay to remove off-site or reinject ??
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Beginning-Of-The-End-For-Gas-Flaring.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+oilpricecom+%28Oil+Price.com+Daily+News+Update%29

  12. While we speak, total arctic sea ice surface and volume are at record low level for this period of the year… It seems the record low level of 2012 will be challenged this year…

    1. Earlier in the year during winter, arctic sea ice was at the second highest extent since 2011. Just goes to show you that nobody -even those in the public sector with generous salaries- has any clue of what will happen next up there.

      1. Raymond Sloop:
        Is there a source for that winter ice extent at the second highest since 2011?

        When i look at the data, it looks like the ice extent has been near record low in both winter and summer – at the lower decile or below.

        1. I saw it somewhere when it happened in late Feb, maybe NewsMax?

        2. From 5 to 13th February, arctic sea ice extent was even at the highest since 2011, about 1 million km2 more than in 2018, but 1.5 million km2 less than in 1987.
          As shown by Hickory below, the trend is very clear when we look the last 40 years.
          Currently, arctic sea ice extent is 0.5 million km2 below the record of … last year, and 3.75 million below record high of 1983.

          1. Okay, good to know.

            Some sources report sea ice VOLUME and others report sea ice EXTENT.

            I remember a couple of years ago, a researcher explaining why Antarctica had a much greater EXTENT due to wind spreading the ice around, even though the VOLUME was less.

            It seems to be the way that a media source sets out a headline, that when you look at the details, you find it isn’t such a headline after all – just things moving along in the same direction.

            2. Best source for Arctic ice is Dr Paul Beckwith . He is to Arctic ice what Campbell is to Peak oil . See his videos on you tube . Advance warning very disturbing . Posts very regularly .

  13. Regarding the arctic sea ice, the trend is a very rapid down sizing.
    Here is a graph showing the sea ice volume from 1979-2017, by month.
    In every month of the year the trend is sharply lower (and this year even lower yet).

    1. Meanwhile,

      WILDFIRES RAGE IN ARCTIC — SEA ICE MELTS

      “The U.N. weather agency warned Friday that average temperatures in Siberia were 10 degrees Celsius (18 Fahrenheit) above average last month, a spate of exceptional heat that has fanned devastating fires in the Arctic Circle and contributed to a rapid depletion in ice sea off Russia’s Arctic coast.”

      https://phys.org/news/2020-07-siberian-heatwave-wildfires-rage-arctic.html

      1. Not to be outdone,

        FIRES TRIPLE IN BRAZIL’S PANTANAL WETLANDS IN 2020

        “The number of forest fires in the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetlands, has nearly tripled in 2020 compared to the same period last year, according to satellite data released Thursday. The trend is even more troubling given that 2019 already saw a six-fold increase in fires in the region across the full year.”

        https://phys.org/news/2020-07-triple-brazil-pantanal-wetlands.html

        1. That Pantanal tropical wetland region is a very interesting landform.
          located far inland near the center of S. America. “The Pantanal is a gently-sloped basin that receives runoff from the upland areas and slowly releases the water through the Paraguay River and tributaries. The formation is a result of the large, concave pre-Andean depression of the earth’s crust, related to the Andean formation… It constitutes an enormous internal river delta, in which several rivers flowing from the surrounding plateau merge.”
          It is surrounded on 3 sides by tropical dry forest, also extremely susceptible to fires and desertification.
          Less than 60% of Brazil is still forest. Considerable portion of that is dry (and desertified) forest that increasingly being burned and cleared for cattle.

  14. IF RELAXED TOO SOON, PHYSICAL DISTANCING MEASURES MIGHT HAVE BEEN ALL FOR NAUGHT

    “If physical distancing measures in the United States are relaxed while there is still no COVID-19 vaccine or treatment and while personal protective equipment remains in short supply, the number of resulting infections could be about the same as if distancing had never been implemented to begin with, according to a UCLA-led team of mathematicians and scientists…

    During the 1918 influenza pandemic, social distancing was first enforced and then relaxed in some areas. Bertozzi points to a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2007 that looked at several American cities during that pandemic where a second wave of infections occurred after public health measures were removed too early.”

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-physical-distancing-naught.html

  15. O.F.M. – Thank you for doing so much to educate us regarding religion (and God’s Laws).

    I have learned a great deal from you and try to share that knowledge with as many people as I can. When someone tries to defend the homosexual lifestyle, for example, I simply remind them that Leviticus 18:22 clearly states it to be an abomination. End of debate. I do need some advice from you, however, regarding some other elements of God’s Laws and how to follow them.

    1. Leviticus 25:44 states that I may possess slaves, both male and female, provided they are from neighboring nations. A friend of mine claims that this applies to Mexicans, but not Canadians. Can you clarify? Why can’t you own Canadians?

    2. I would like to sell my daughters into slavery, as sanctioned in Exodus 21:7. In this day and age, what do you think would be a fair price for them?

    3. I know that I am allowed no contact with a woman while she is in her period of menstrual uncleanliness – Lev.15: 19-24. The problem is how do I tell? I have tried asking, but most women take offence.

    4. When I burn a bull on the altar as a sacrifice, I know it creates a pleasing odour for the Lord – Lev.1:9. The problem is my neighbors. They claim the odour is not pleasing to them. Should I smite them?

    5. I have a neighbor who insists on working on the Sabbath. Exodus 35:2 clearly states he should be put to death. Am I morally obligated to kill him myself, or should I ask the police to do it?

    6. A friend of mine feels that even though eating shellfish is an abomination, Lev. 11:10, it is a lesser abomination than homosexuality. I don’t agree. Can you settle this? Are there ‘degrees’ of abomination?

    7. Lev. 21:20 states that I may not approach the altar of God if I have a defect in my sight. I have to admit that I wear reading glasses. Does my vision have to be 20/20, or is there some wiggle-room here?

    8. Most of my male friends get their hair trimmed, including the hair around their temples, even though this is expressly forbidden by Lev. 19:27. How should they die?

    9. I know from Lev. 11:6-8 that touching the skin of a dead pig makes me unclean, but may I still play football if I wear gloves?

    10. My uncle has a farm. He violates Lev.19:19 by planting two different crops in the same field, as does his wife by wearing garments made of two different kinds of thread (cotton/polyester blend). He also tends to curse and blaspheme a lot. Is it really necessary that we go to all the trouble of getting the whole town together to stone them? Lev.24:10-16. Couldn’t we just burn them to death at a private family affair, like we do with people who sleep with their in-laws? (Lev. 20:14)

    I know you have studied these things and thus enjoy considerable expertise in such matters, so I’m confident you can help. In today’s chaotic world it’s great to know that God’s Word is eternal and unchanging.

    PS (It would be a damn shame if you couldn’t own a Canadian) ?

      1. Hightrekker possesses a refreshing in depth understanding of religion.

        Religions persist or fade away depending on whether they are helping the followers reproduce successfully, or hindering reproduction.

        Mostly, religions help, in historical terms. Right now, not true in the USA in terms of the political landscape.

        1. OFM —

          “Religions persist or fade away depending on whether they are helping the followers reproduce successfully, or hindering reproduction.”

          Call me dense if you like but how does religion help or hinder reproduction? All else being equal, I’d think reproduction success, or failure, is a function of fertility. The Catholic church traditionally forbids contraceptive use, because it is a sin against nature, but that is hardly “helping followers reproduce” (other than by encouraging, or coercing, them do so) and it certainly helps produce more Catholics. I suppose if religion encourages good nutrition and better hygiene it would be helping with reproduction success?

          1. ““Religions persist or fade away depending on whether they are helping the followers reproduce successfully, or hindering reproduction.”

            Whoever said this forgot to mention a huge component-
            “and what they can take from others”
            That is a huge history of humanity. And it has been done with the taking of blood, with starvation, with torture…
            And extreme cruelty.

            1. It’s interesting how today’s Christians gerrymander around the conclusions of Old Testament texts. They say these Bible passages don’t apply under the New Covenant. If so, why wasn’t God clear about this (such that Aquinas and two centuries of theologians got it wrong), causing so much torment and misery? Can God effectively communicate to us, or not? Perhaps He doesn’t know us well enough to do so? It seems to me that omniscient God needs some basic lessons in communication, or more likely — He isn’t a good God.

            2. You mentioned gerrymandering. That made me think of a quote by Walter Kaufmann:

              Gerrymandering
              Theologians do not just do this incidentally: (gerrymander) this is theology. Doing theology is like doing a jigsaw puzzle in which the verses of Scripture are the pieces: the finished picture is prescribed by each denomination, with a certain latitude allowed. What makes the game so pointless is that you do not have to use all the pieces, and that pieces which do not fit may be reshaped after pronouncing the words “this means.”
              Walter Kaufmann:
              Critique of Religion and Philosophy

            5. Actually, I know Jesus.
              He lives in East LA, and makes the best tacos.

            6. Jesus also hangs out in front of Home Depot to do the work that’s below your ego or above your ability

      1. I’ve been lurking on this site and eagerly reading for years. Likewise, I’ve been a Canadian for years. And it’s finally time to weigh in. You can’t own Canadians as slaves because we’re building a great big beautiful wall on our southern border to keep you out – and we’re going to get you to pay for it!!

    3. Back atcha Doug,
      You’re pretty good at this sort of thing, quite capable, actually, when it comes to down and dirty debates. I enjoy them, and I’m glad you are posting replies, because such disputes are just about guaranteed to attract more readers.

      There are such things as dead letter laws on just about every set of law books, lol, and most of the ones you mention ARE long dead letter. Some aren’t of course.

      But we need to remember that religious people don’t all hold to the same precise or even approximate set of moral rules or values. There are plenty of observant Christians who are hard core about abortion and homosexuality, etc. There are plenty who aren’t. Just as women are assuming their rightful place on the political scene, there are women assuming leadership positions in churches.

      Now so far as priests and little boys go, you have one hell of a good point.

      “In today’s chaotic world it’s great to know that God’s Word is eternal and unchanging.”

      But that’s not at all true as a practical matter. One thing about religion that’s well worth study is the way the dogma can be either emphasized or ignored, as suits the time, occasion, and place.
      The Catholic church for instance recognizes that astronomers know all about orbits, and that biologists know all about evolution, etc.

      I can’t remember the last time I heard a preacher talk about a woman obeying her man, although some still do. I can’t remember anything being said about dietary taboos…….. which incidentally at the time they were established were EXTREMELY useful in terms of controlling parasitic diseases, etc.

      The nature of Nature is such that anything that WORKS expands, grows, reproduces more successfully than the competition. It doesn’t mean the successful meme is good in every respect.

      We humans have extremely useful upright posture, at the cost of having a miserable spinal column prone to lots of problems. Intelligence enabled us to master fire and other tools, but it also enabled us to build nuclear weapons.

      As Shakespeare, IIRC, put it, nothing is good or bad, but that thinking makes it so.

      I’m advocating using our HEADS, using our ability to THINK, rather than reacting emotionally to problems. Cool, dispassionate thinking beats hot tempers and raging hormones almost every time, regardless of WHICH side of a dispute you may be on.

      Peel away just five percent of the Evangelical Christian vote, and the D’s own a bunch of competitive congressional districts, mayor’s office’s, maybe even a couple or three more congressional districts.

      I don’t get mad or upset about this sort of thing. I look at it dispassionately, in terms of accomplishing my own personal agenda, which is for the Democrats to control DC, and more states, which in turn will result in everybody being better off in the long term. The richest man in the world, if he’s able to THINK a little, doesn’t want his kids and grandkids to live in a post apocalypse world …. if they live at all.

      In another generation, in even less time, the church will have half or less the political power it has today in this country. Demographics and the computers in kids pockets guarantee it. Tales of whales eating and spitting people up alive can’t compete with Star Wars, lol.

      In the meantime, we don’t actually WANT to provide a red hot incentive for every redneck and Bible thumper in the country to vote for the orangutan and his homies……. do we?

      1. OFM —

        L.O.L. You are welcome to ignore my (anti) religious blather and I’ll take no offence. Truth is, my mind is normally focused on a number of astrophysical questions, especially the inner workings of neutron stars. I post a lot of climate change news here; I feel I have a responsibility to do so. If we don’t look after Earth nothing else matters much. Since DT is one of the biggest obstacles to looking after our home planet your rants usually wind up as stuff I mostly agree with (believe it of not). 😉

        1. “I post a lot of climate change news here; I feel I have a responsibility to do so.”

          Why here, where you’re not exactly converting any non-believers? Responsibility to who?

          1. “Responsibility to who ?”

            Himself, he doesn’t need a God fear factor

            It’s called character, try it

  17. betty bowers states rights you tube.

    Sharp as Leroy Brown’s razor, and mean as junk yard dog, and right on the money. DEAD on the money, lol.

    But we STILL need to remember that we can have friends, or enemies, it’s our choice.

    1. Great article OFM- thank you. Definitely worth a slow read, all the information worth fully digesting.

      A few exerts-
      “And the region [Sahel]— with more than 150 million people and growing — is threatened by rapid desertification, even more severe water shortages and deforestation. Today researchers at the United Nations estimate that some 65% of farmable lands have already been degraded. “My deep fear,” said Solomon Hsiang, a climate researcher and economist at the University of California, Berkeley, is that Africa’s transition into a post-climate-change civilization “leads to a constant outpouring of people.”
      [Nigeria for example is projected to reach a population of 402 million by 2050, making them the 3rd biggest country today]

      “In the six months after López Obrador [Mexico] took office in December 2018, some 420,000 people entered Mexico [from central America] without documentation…suggests that even as 1 million or so climate migrants make it to the U.S. border, many more Central Americans will become trapped in protracted transit, unable to move forward or backward in their journey, remaining in southern Mexico and making its current stresses far worse.”

      -Ron you may find the Section III on El Paso of particular interest.

    2. Hickory said: “Great article OFM- thank you. Definitely worth a slow read, all the information worth fully digesting.”

      I agree. Scary, sobering. And well written.

  19. Another voice; let’s hope it’s not another “voice in the wilderness”.

    SIBERIAN HEAT WAVE AND MELTING ARCTIC SEA ICE INDICATE CLIMATE CHANGE

    “Scientists warn record Siberian temperatures and the rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice along the Russian coast indicate that climate change is occurring and may be irreversible. This week alone, the World Meteorological Organization reports some parts of Siberia have been warmer than the U.S. states of Florida and California, with temperatures going above 30 degrees Celsius. It says the exceptional and prolonged heat is fueling devastating Arctic fires and causing a rapid decrease in the Arctic sea ice coverage.”

    https://www.voanews.com/science-health/siberian-heat-wave-and-melting-arctic-sea-ice-indicate-climate-change-scientists-say

  20. Speaking of God, my understanding is that when He’s really pissed off, two of His primary (preferred) weapons are floods and petulance. Well, that being the case, what better example?

    ‘CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED’ – HANNA HAMMERS VIRUS-INFECTED SOUTH TEXAS

    “Hanna was the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and came ashore on Saturday afternoon around Port Mansfield, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 90mph. The National Hurricane Center downgraded the hurricane to a tropical storm early Sunday. Chris Birchfield, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Brownsville, told AP News the storm’s real threat continues to be heavy rainfall. “We’re still expecting catastrophic flooding,” he said.”

    BTW The Four Horsemen are figures in Christian faith, appearing in the New Testament (final book, Revelation). So, we’re not talking Old Testament here! In case you don’t know, and depending on your church (or preacher/priest) , the first Horseman is called Pestilence, and is associated with infectious disease and plague. I suppose if God created the Universe in six days it wouldn’t take him more than a second to brew up a corona virus. A Christian would know better than I.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/catastrophic-flooding-expected-hanna-hammers-virus-infected-south-texas

    1. Hang in there Doug,

      But try not to forget that my POINT is that making fun of religious people publicly is about as sure a way to motivate them to show up at the polls and vote for the orangutan as can be imagined, lol.

      I’m a hard core Darwinist, in terms of using what I know about Life, the Universe, and EVERYTHING, lol, to help me understand reality. I’ve occasionally said here in this forum that my own personal handle would be Darwinian, except that Ron P beat me to it back in the old TOD days, lol.

      So I presume you understand that I don’t BELIEVE any of the dogma in the KJB, or any other religious text or tradition. I just try to UNDERSTAND how religions work, why people follow them, why they persist, what if any ways might work in terms of getting religious people on board with an environmental agenda, and winning elections.

      There are many astonishing parallels between the ways religious people such as Evangelical or fundamentalist Christians believe in their God and the way some people believe in charismatic leaders such as trump, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, on the bad end and good leaders such as Gandhi on the good end. It’s sort of like the way little boys believe in their Daddy…. omnipotent, loving, scary, all seeing, the thing to be most loved and the thing to be most feared in their little universe.

      Nobody ever went broke overestimating the ignorance and stupidity of the general public.

      That’s a given.

      It’s also a given that even the dumbest man or woman alive knows when you’re making fun of him, and will hate your guts for it, and do everything he or she can to hurt YOU back……. including voting for the orangutan and his homies.

      The ONE thing that absolutely will NOT work any better than pouring gasoline on a raging fire is making fun of them publicly.

      The best thing to do when we find ourselves in a hole is to STOP DIGGING in order to get out.

  21. Coming to a shoreline near you…
    From National Geographic-
    “Biggest ice sheet on Earth more vulnerable to melting than thought”
    [Shocking evidence suggests that the last time the East Antarctic ice sheet collapsed, it added over 10 feet to sea level rise, and that it’s likely to happen again.]

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-more-vulnerable-to-melting-than-thought/

    “shorelines show multiple times when sea levels were higher in the past, including 400,000 years ago, when she estimates that they peaked somewhere between 33 and 42 feet higher than today’s levels.”
    That time CO2 rose only to 300ppm, now 417 ppm

    1. Hickory —

      Please file that in the (bulging) Worse Than Expected file.

    1. Another way to look at it
      Solar does not enable opium production.
      The customers do.

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