May Non-OPEC Oil Production drops to 2013 levels

189 thoughts to “May Non-OPEC Oil Production drops to 2013 levels”

1. Thanks Ovi!

2. So not much of a rebound I guess

3. For the US frac spread count (includes both natural gas and oil focused frac spreads) we have the data below, except for the final label (89 frac spreads for week ending Sept 18, 2020), the other labels in the chart are the centered 4 week average frac spread count for the US.

   

   1. To make a very rough estimate of oil focused frac spreads we might assume that the split between oil and natural gas focused frac spreads is proportional to the split between horizontal oil rigs and horizontal natural gas rigs using Baker Hughes North American rig count.

      The chart below shows this estimate with the labels being for the centered 4 week average oil frac spread count, except for the last label (62 oil frc spreads) for week ending September 18, 2020.

      

4. Is there going to be a point where (big) oil is going to need a bailout?
   https://connectrandomdots.blogspot.com/2020/09/big-oil-and-coming-bailout.html
   Seems unlikely but it’s possible…

   1. I feel that Intra-elite competition and rivalry will increase significantly when both Too Big to Jail Wall Street and Big Oil seek the firehose of cash bailouts simultaneously.

      http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/intra-elite-competition-a-key-concept-for-understanding-the-dynamics-of-complex-societies/

      … furthermore, thanks for the great post Ovi! I’m gonna really enjoy reading all the comments here.

      1. Survivalist

         Thanks. I just wish that the data could be a few more months up to date.

   2. There is no need for a bailout.

      The companies have not adjusted to significantly lower oil prices. They apparently gutted the in house economist positions, because their price forecasting is “dart board” quality.

      The companies need to realize they aren’t growth companies and never will be again. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth something.

      Cash flow should be the priority, with enough to be able to pay a healthy dividend. CAPEX should have been heavily slashed a year or two before 2014, and definitely after 2014.

      I am not sure why any of these companies would think they are growth companies.

      It is very difficult to predict the future. But I always read about EV and oil forecasts.

      I recently read one forecast that the US light vehicle fleet will be 7% plug in EV, or 18 million of 259 million, by 2030.

      I read another that by 2040, EV’s will have displaced 17 million BOPD of oil demand worldwide. However, population growth will roughly offset this, such that demand will still be in the ballpark of 2019 demand.

      I would also note that about 23,000 of the 9.7 million registered vehicles in the State of Illinois, a Midwestern Blue State, are EV’s.

      EV’s will take over, but the best guess now is it will be a slow process.

      Public oil companies just need discipline. The greedy management need to be incentivized differently by the greedy board members. Bonuses for cash flow, and not production growth.

      1. All true, but there is a real floor to the cost of production. As the quantity of oil extractable goes down that cost is going to go up. At the point where that cost starts to exceed the revenue the government is going to have to step in. What than number is is anyone’s guess and will depend on the company. I think that a lot of oil companies have been spoiled by decades of huge positive cashflow but that seems to be coming down so adjustments will have to be made.
         Also, although in the west oil consumption is being replaced the rest of the world is growing fast and oil demand along with it.

         1. weekend- if there is demand for the product in excess of supply, the market will supply the bailout in the form of higher price for oil.

            1. Hickory,
               Well put and concise, I agree.

               1. Guys , Musk is getting on my nerves just like the Kardashians . Let sleeping dogs lie . pain in the arse and waste of time .

               2. Trump, Musk, Oprah, Tony Robbins, Kardashian…. it’s all the same USA Celebrity CEO BS. The only philosophy that America has contributed to Global Thought is Positive Thinking. In the context of contemporary humanity, and it’s pending mass global eco-suicide, it is, to put it mildly, a little embarrassing.

                  You ever meet a guy that loves Trump, Musk AND Bitcoin?

            2. The issue is that if the cost of production is above that (higher) price that consumers are able to pay the oil company is still running at a loss – and it can only do that for so long. That is where the bailout concept comes in…. Right now in the oil business producers are price takers, not price makers.

               1. Weekendpeak,

                  Hickory and I are assuming the oil producers are price takers, the point is that supply will be restricted due to lack of profits so that supply falls below demand at any given price level.

                  As you likely understand, this implies an increase in oil price as buyers bid up the price of oil. More oil supply then becomes profitable until supply becomes equal to demand at some higher price level.

                  Basically we are guessing that the equilibrium oil price where the marginal barrel is barely profitable, will gradually climb to about $75/bo in 2030 for Brent crude in 2019 US$. One such oil price scenario (odds of being correct = 0) is below.

                  

               2. I use the frack spread count and ratio of horizontal drilling rigs operating in Permian basin to the US total horizontal rigs operating and assuming the frack spreads operating in the Permian is proportional to drilling rigs (an assumption likely to be incorrect), I can estimate completion rate for tight oil wells in the Permian basin. By also using the oil price scenario above with my typical $9 million dollar well cost assumption (along with my usual other economic assumptions such as a 10% annual discount rate and discounted net cash flow over the life of the well being greater than the well cost, I get the Permian basin tight oil scenario below.

                  This scenario suggests US might not have peaked, though it will depend on the rate of decline in other tight oil basins, GOM, Alaska, and onshore US conventional output.

                  

               3. For the scenario above it is assumed that new well EUR (crude plus condensate only) is 387 kbo in Dec 2019 and falls to 263 kbo by August 2040 when the final tight oil wells are drilled in the Permian basin for this scenario. Chart below shows new well EUR assumed over time for the scenario.

                  

               4. US tight oil scenario matching oil price scenario and Permian scenario above, peak for US tight oil is 2030 at 9390 kb/d for this scenario (with 100% probability that the scenario will NOT be correct.)

                  

               5. Dennis – Thanks for your response and apologies for the tardy reply.
                  In isolation there should be a price equilibrium between suppliers and “demanders” (hey, I like that word) but there is tiny fly in the ointment.
                  If that equilibrium price is greater than what society can afford (without changing it’s ways too much) it will lead to social problems.
                  For example, let’s say that the break even price for gasoline is $100/gallon. At that level there will be demand (otherwise supply and demand would not be in balance, and “equilibrium” is exactly that) but the societal consequences would be such that the government de facto would not have a choice but to interfere is some way in order to get supply and demand to be in equilibrium at a lower price.
                  The assumption in the above scenario is of course that $100 gasoline the producers are breaking even, not making money. And that would be the consequence is production is supply limited and only more expensive sources of raw material remain to be extracted -i.e peak oil (really, a bit after that – shall we call it PostPeak Oil AKA PP-Oil? :-))
                  Thanks
                  WeekendPeak

               6. Weekendpeak,

                  I am not claiming peak oil will not occur or that it is not possible that oil prices might rise to some level that society cannot afford.

                  The claim is very simple, we are a very long way from gasoline at $100/gallon (which I agree would be unaffordable in 2019 US$ for 99% of the population).
                  To be honest, unless there is a big increase in taxes on gasoline in the US, I doubt we would ever reach even $10/gallon in 2019 US$ in the US for gasoline. Perhaps by 2030 we might reach $5/gallon in 2019 US$, again assuming no changes in gasoline taxes in most US jurisdictions.

                  In my view that price will be affordable for all above the poverty level of income in the US. For the poor, gasoline may become unaffordable, they have always faced difficult choices, unfortunately that will be difficult to change, though better social policy may help.

               7. Dennis ,you are right and you are wrong . What you do not realize is that a lot of population that was on the margin is now going to move to below poverty level and will find gas unaffordable . For them the difference between sleeping on a full stomach and starvation is the food bank ,leave alone the price of gas .

               8. hole in head,

                  I am fully aware that more people will fall below poverty line with current economic crisis, the difference between us is that you believe the crisis will never end, I think you are incorrect in your assumption.

                  Time will tell.

               9. weekendpeak,

                  Remember in the equilibrium scenario only the “marginal” producers are breaking even and that is only on their most expensive barrel of oil produced, in fact they will be very profitable on all the other wells that are lower cost/higher profit wells. The system is self correcting in the sense that there are some uses which are less important (a Sunday drive, or a visit to Grandma) and those will be reduced as prices increase, people will switch to more fuel efficient cars and leave the pickup truck or large SUV in the driveway or garage and drive the Prius, Volt, or Leaf instead. Prices for used large SUVs and pickup trucks will plummet and wise purchasers of new vehicles will chose an EV or plugin hybrid. We are quite a long way from oil not being affordable particularly in OECD nations, it is likely that by 2035 to 2040 demand for oil may fall below supply at a price of $75/bo (or any higher oil price) and oil prices will start to fall due to lack of demand, then oil prices may be driven down to $30/bo (or perhaps less) as OPEC nations and Russia drive up output to try to steal market share.

                  We might see oil prices rise to $100/bo in 2030 as peak oil becomes apparent, but I doubt we see an annual average oil price above $115/bo for any year in the future (2019 US$), that price will be affordable for most people and will keep supply in line with demand until demand falls below supply at the high price of $115/bo by 2032 as EVs and plugins start to take off and reduce demand for oil (vs a scenario where the number of EVs sold remains low).

      2. Shallow sand,

         Tesla claims it will have a $25000 EV (no specs currently) by 2023, if this estimate is correct (they typically are late on such a forecast) and other car companies try to match this by 2024, we might see sales take off by 2025. Current Tesla plan is to reduce battery cost by 56% by 2024, again this may be optimistic, Musk usually makes a best guess that is on the optimistic side.

         1. Which is great, if Musk is even halfway accurate on timeline (remember Tesla Semi’s release in 2018? No, me neither) and if personal driving was even a major concern when it comes to global energy.

            Keep in mind, this was all predicated on battery technology that isn’t even ready yet, if it even gets perfected to be able to work. That part got glossed over a lot by the online fanboy reactions.

            1. Remember 1 million self driving robotaxis on the road by end 2020?

               Here are Elon Musk’s wildest predictions about Tesla’s self-driving cars
               https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions

               Elon Musk promised that Tesla will have a million robotaxis on the road by 2020. Now he’s walking back on that promise.
               https://www.ccn.com/elon-musks-backtrack-tesla-robotaxi-claim-securities-fraud/

               Elon Musk’s Backtrack Of The Tesla Robotaxi Claim Is Blatant Securities Fraud
               https://www.ccn.com/elon-musks-backtrack-tesla-robotaxi-claim-securities-fraud/

               Tall about a pump-and-dump lol

               1. Survivalist,

                  See comment above, Musk is human, predictions are always incorrect due to statistics.

               2. Hi Dennis,

                  Dennis says, “….. Musk is human, predictions are always incorrect ….”

                  Then why is Musk making them? The purpose of Musk’s “predictions” is to
                  generate investment interest in his company.

               3. Certain that Musk didn’t predict all his rocket launch failures.

               4. Paul,

                  I don’t follow SpaceX very closely, I imagine Musk did not predict a 100% success rate, generally rocket launches fail from time to time.

                  According to Wikipedia, the Falcon 9 has had a 97.92% success rate, the first stage booster landings have had only an 86% success rate (60 of 70) with the latest version having 36 of 40 successful landings or 90% success rate.

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches

               5. No one should sign up for a manned space mission with Musk or ever use the autonomous driving feature unless you are watching it constantly. It’s obvious that he does not do any risk analysis. Musk has a different value system apparently

                  With exponential functions you want to err on the side of caution.

                  — Paul Graham (@paulg) March 6, 2020

               6. Paul,

                  The driver assist features on the Tesla are poorly named, it would indeed be foolish to use them without paying attention, there are many situations where they do not work perfectly, they have improved over the past 2 years, but by no means is the “autopilot” name appropriate, autocrash, perhaps. 🙂

               7. Dennis, My favorite Musk prediction on coronavirus

                  

               8. Paul,

                  Musk knows little about infectious disease and epidemiology, he should limit his comments to things he knows about, I definitely lost most respect I might have had for him based on his coronavirus comments.

               9. Scientists don’t know everything and have biases, vested interests, changes of mind, new information, assorted pressures, etc., and are human, but also, if Musk is getting his covid info from epidemiologists and the like, some of which seems to echo what I’ve been reading, then maybe ‘Houston, we have a problem.’ (and it’s not necessarily from Musk).

                  But of course we have a problem. Lot’s of them. ‘u’

               10. Financier,

                   Musk’s role is to give his best guess of what he believes will occur, I agree he would be wise to make more conservative predictions, in any case they are forward looking statements which are often incorrect, this is the case for all forward looking statements by every CEO.

               11. Trevor Milton’s forward looking statements appear to have bitten him in the ass.

            2. Kleiber,

               Hmm, I believed I mentioned that Musk is often too optimistic in his predictions. Like all other humans, he does not know the future, he can only give us his best guess of what he believes will happen. Like all other humans he will be wrong when he makes any forward looking statements. The number of possible future scenarios is infinite, chances of predicting correctly are 1 divided by infinity, in other words zero.

               Any criticism of incorrect forward looking statements suggests a lack of understanding of basic statistics.

               1. As Survivalist alluded to, this is all to pump investment capital for the stock. It works wonders, but as big a fan as I’ve been of Musk over the years for the great things he most certainly has achieved, I am getting a little weary of the constant pumping of features that are still vapourware.

               2. Kleiber,

                  I agree he is too optimistic, at this point everyone knows that and they discount his best estimates. He was fairly close on the Model Y ramp, usually the progress on software development and machine learning progresses more slowly than Musk believes it will.

                  On the robotaxi claim, it was preceded by a comment that these were forward looking statements, in other words, a best guess as to when the full self driving would be “feature complete” and when one million cars were on the road that were robotaxi capable subject to regulatory approval in some locale. If one sees that as a promise, they understand a promise differently than I do.

               3. Dennis, is there ANY way a CEO could be lying about projections? Please give us a break about good guy Musk who is only human. He lies to enrich himself. Maybe that is your point about CEO’s? They all lie to enrich themselves?

               4. Greenbub,

                  I do not know the mind of others, projections by their nature are always incorrect. Can you find the quote where I have said that Musk is a good guy. I am simply stating that best guesses are often wrong, could Musk be lying, sure, but it would be difficult to prove with a forward looking statement. Odds of correct statements are zero.

                  I imagine he might be optimistic, Tesla has succeeded against great odds. Is Musk a “good guy”? From what I have read, probably not, if the stories are accurate.

               5. I am referring to this: “he can only give us his best guess of what he believes will happen”. No, he can give us a projection he knows is wrong, but will make him billions.

               6. Greenbub,

                  You assume he knows he is incorrect, others might assume he is optimistic, forward looking statements by nature are incorrect, those who think they are “promises” are naive.

               7. Greenbub.

                  The problem is not just letting Musk get away with stuff.

                  There is a lack of uniform enforcement of regulations throughout Wall Street and investing in general.

                  There is also a serious problem with C suite compensation in relation to the average employee.

                  Just think of all the shale management that has ran companies into BK, and then gotten retention bonuses and free stock in the newco post chapter 11.

                  We said how long ago that this shale stuff didn’t work at low oil prices? But the higher ups have made tons.

                  It’s just like with income tax audits. There are many less than there used to be.

                  Have a good friend who is a CPA and he confirms there just aren’t many IRS audits compared to 10-20 years ago.

                  Musk seems to have calmed down some. There was a time where he was really off the wall. The deal with the rescue of the young men and him attacking a rescue diver wasn’t good, for example.

                  Neither was $420 secured, and lucky for him he didn’t sell Tesla to Saudi Arabia. That wasn’t all that long ago really.

                  I think if I had a big capital gain in Tesla stock right now I might take a little off the table.

                  I would also note that in April of this year a Federal Judge denied a motion to dismiss filed by Tesla regarding the funding secured tweet. It is a class action lawsuit filed by shareholders alleging harm. The Judge found the statement was false and that Musk made the statement in his capacity as CEO of Tesla. The trial in that case has been delayed due to the pandemic.

                  There is another trial pending with regard to Tesla’s acquisition of Solar City. Again, delayed due to COVID.

                  Conducting a jury trial is a challenge at this time.

               8. shallow sand,

                  I made that mistake with Apple long ago. I imagine based on your comments you own no Tesla stock, so you would have nothing to take off the table. Musk is far from perfect, not sure there are many CEOs that are nice guys, you know the saying, the shit floats to the top.

                  The cars are pretty nice, if they get their battery costs down by 33%, rather than the 56% they are aiming for, they will have a new car cost on a par with ICEVs, and TCO will be considerably lower for the Tesla when that point is reached. The ICEV will no longer be able to compete, perhaps the ICEV producers will catch up to Tesla on EVs, they have a long way to go.

                  I will continue to hold.

         2. Mr Musk . ” If wishes were horses ,beggars would ride .”

            1. We will see in 3 to 4 years if the $25,000 Tesla becomes reality.

         3. Currently, the lowest price Model 3 listed on the Tesla website is 38 thousand with a battery that has 250 miles of range, the base model is well equipped, similar to Camry XLE trim or better. MRSP for similar Camry Hybrid XLE with Driver assist package is about 39k, so fairly similar price. Note that I have a 2013 Toyota Camry Hybrid XLE (without the high end assist package, current cost about 5k), the Tesla Model 3 is a much nicer car than the Camry (which was purchased new 7 years ago) ever was.

5. Oil above $ 70 bankrupts the consumer and oil below will bankrupt the producer . Are we there now ?
   https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Debt-Crisis-Is-Mounting-For-Oil-Economies.html

   1. IMO this is false.

      The per capita consumption of gasoline in the USA has been running about 450 gallons annually.

      A less than $450 annual per capita increase in the cost of gasoline is going to BK US consumers?

      At $70 WTI, with CAPEX discipline, most US oil companies can generate significant cash flow. At least the conventional onshore ones like us can.

      I agree oil prices running up from $30s in 2003 to $130 in 2008 was a problem. But $70 WTI in 2020 and beyond I am not buying.

      Anecdotal. A lot of the older large SUV and full size pickup trucks are being driven by low income people where I live. I’m talking 2010ish and prior models. 2007-2010 Ford Expeditions are very popular. Shouldn’t these folks be driving older Prius instead?

      1. shallow sand,

         Not sure if a prius is considered cool in the midwest, I thought everyone drove a pickup truck where you live? 🙂 Where I live, in the rural areas, the ratio of pickup trucks to other light vehicles (including small and mid-size SUVs) is probably 2:1. Most of the non-pickup trucks are SUVs, not a lot of hybrids, plugin hybrids, or EVs. At current gasoline prices (about $2.30 per gallon last time I filled), even a Ford Expedition is not cost prohibitive for lower income folks, when gasoline goes back to over $3/gallon, the price for a used Ford Expedition will fall drastically.

   2. We might not be there yet, but the price window that would satisfy both producers and consumers is dangerously narrowing. Have a look at the link below for some insights (around the 21:00 mark):

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_gvvj56rzw&t=1684s

   3. Hole in head,

      There is a lot of space between $40/bo and $70/bo. The Persian Gulf oil producers would be fine at $60/bo, and perhaps even at $50/bo, they might be wise to raise the price at home to international levels for gasoline and diesel and give tradeable credits to lower income citizens for gasoline, this would encourage less wasteful use of fuel at home.

      1. Dennis ,the space between $40 and $ 70 is $ 30 . The space between $ 40 and $ 25 is only $ 15 . That is where we are headed .

         1. hole in head,

            Care to predict when the price of Brent will be $25/bo? If you mean 2080, then I might agree. Note that from July 2002 to August 2020, there has been only one month with the Brent oil price less than $25/b0. Also oil prices at $40/bo will lead to lower oil output and eventually the excessive oil stocks will fall to normal levels as supply falls to less than demand. When this point is reached (my guess is June 2021) oil prices might rise fairly rapidly. In short $25/bo for Brent crude is unlikely for any more than a one month period, prior to 2070 in my opinion.

            1. Dennis ,2070 ?? I know you are a rational person . What happened ? You expect me to make a forecast 50 years down the lane .? The coming battle of the decline and collapse of industrial civilization cannot be won by feeble bodies and feeble minds . We need strong ,rational guys like you to educate those who are still in the dark . Take a break and chill out , this is getting on your nerves . Take care ,be well . Always your well-wisher.

               1. Hole in head,

                  I did not ask for a price prediction in 2070, I suggested $25/bo is not likely to be reached prior to that. I see you expect a worldwide permanent economic collapse prior to 2035, so I expect you believe oil prices will be less than $25/bo sometime before 2035, or certainly after that point, maybe before 2040.

                  I just disagree and believe the likelihood that anything close to the scenario you seem to envision has a probability that is vanishingly small, approximately 1 in 10,000 or perhaps one in a million.

               2. I really don’t see the fascination with prices anyway, and especially not on anything beyond 6 months out. I mean, I get it, I see why that’s an obvious metric to use. But it’s not particularly insightful, especially when this community was adamant back in 2008 that low supply = high prices, and nothing would change that.

                  As anyone who has followed this scene for years will tell you, prices are not reflective of the overall nature of the industry or the energy content or importance of the resource. They are yet another wildly variable parameter people use as a bellwether for economic activity. Inaccurately. It’s another GDP.

                  Does this mean price has no impact? Of course not. Naturally, high prices mean everything gets expensive and can lead to interesting second order effects, as we saw with the GFC house of cards and oil price spike. Prognosticating about the exact price and what that bodes for the man on the street is, well, like a lot of predictions about the future: pretty hard.

               3. Kleiber,

                  Clearly nobody foresaw 8.3 Mb/d of tight oil output from the US for March 2020 back in 2008. Any idea what might have lead to the explosion in US tight oil output over the 2012 to 2015 period?

                  Perhaps average oil prices of over $100/bo had something to do with it.

                  The continued expansion after prices crashed was just poor investment decisions by poorly run oil companies, that was also unexpected and might lead to the thinking that oil prices do not matter ( eventually they do as we will see when many oil companies likely go bankrupt during this low price period.)

               4. The coming battle of the decline and collapse of industrial civilization cannot be won by feeble bodies and feeble minds .

                  It cannot be won… period. But if anyone has a solution, which by where it can be won, then get on your soapbox and shout it to the world. But be warned, you must shout really loud. You are shouting at 7.8 billion people and you must convince them that they must obey your commands, else it will not work.

                  I do hope my point comes across here. But really, I seriously doubt it.

               5. Degrowth. However, last time I shouted that from any box, I got pelted with rotten veg. Turns out our way of life is non-negotiable, otherwise the terrorists win.

                  Do we want that comforting lie, or inconvenient truth?

               6. Well said . Bullseye .

               7. Agree . This battle cannot be won , the best one can hope is die with his sanity and shoes on and that what I was trying to explain .

            2. Dennis , missed this . When $ 25 ? Lower limit 2025 .Upper limit 2030 . There will be spikes in between (if -$ 37 then why not $137) , but that is where it will be .

               1. Hole in head,

                  I focus on monthly average spot price for Brent crude, lowest it has been is $18.38/bo in the past 254 months. Thanks for the answer, so 2025 to 2030 for Brent at $25/bo or less. My guess is $58 to $75 per barrel in 2019$ over the 2025 to 2030 period for the average monthly Brent spot price, the average Brent price over the 2025-2030 period at roughly $67/bo.

                  Of course, you have given such a wide range, it’s a bit like saying there will be a price of oil, so really no guess at all, think in terms of a monthly average price and perhaps the most likely $20 price range (covering maybe 67% of the monthly expected prices). Note that my range covers 100% of the expected monthly prices in my scenario, but of course that scenario will be wrong.

                  If I understand you correctly, you expect oil prices will be very volatile in the future, on that point you may well be correct, I thought you were suggesting a long term low price of oil, perhaps beyond 2030 that is your expectation. If there is a collapse that is long term (20 years or longer), I expect it will be after 2050, but I believe it might be avoided with better policy, there is no guarantee humans will be intelligent enough to institute such policy.

               2. Yes, I expect a collapse coming up . As a matter of fact we are already in a collapse . Take away the trillions printed in QE money since 2008 and imagine where we would be . However I will not go in detail on this . Coming to my time frame of 2025 -2030 . You say it is too wide . Two points I like to make ,first we are at end of 2020 so the countdown is only 4 years ,second WTI touched $ 36.51 very recently so only $ 11.00 away from $ 25 . Very doable . Prices are going to be drifting downwards pending a black swan event . They will behave so as per the mood of the public . A sign of positive news and the price will inch higher and then when the positive news does not occur and the mood is back in despair the price will fall ,but will settle at a lower level than before as public realizes that the downturn is permanent . No prices will not be volatile ,again pending a black swan . They will drift between a range but the trend will be long term lower . I have earlier said that the you and many others are underestimating the damage that COVID has done to the world’s financial and economic system . The tsunami of the educated young unemployed worldwide is going to create havoc and bring about social change and topple governments . I have a front row view in India . 400 million below 35 years loitering, gathering at tea stalls , munching tobacco , with graduation certificates not worth the paper written on and with a look of absolute despair and hopelessness on their faces .

               3. hole in head,

                  Agree there is currently a severe economic downturn, if you call that “collapse”, I think of collapse differently. I expect there will be an economic recovery in 2021-2023.

                  I was talking about your price window of -$37/bo to $137/bo (I agree that prices are likely to be between those numbers, but it is kind of just saying that there will be a price of oil, which I also think is true.) Your time frame is just fine (2025 to 2030). I doubt we will see a monthly average Brent crude spot price of less than $40/bo between 2025 and 2030, and also doubt that World real GDP will be less than the 2019 average level (in 2010 US $) during that period.

                  As always, time will tell.

               4. Dennis, the collapse we are in is an environmental collapse. For all animal species, except Homo sapiens, the collapse began about half a century ago and is now raging out of control.

                  I am not going over all the other things in the environment that are also in collapse. You have heard them all before. So it should be blatantly obvious that the environmental collapse is well underway.

               5. People are used to hearing about large exotic animals. Polar bears. Elephants. We are way past that. Its stuff like songbirds now something like 40-60% of them wiped out in the past ten years. Insects.

               6. Ron,

                  Agree there are severe environmental problems, I was focused on economic collapse as measured by real GDP. There is not a well agreed upon metric for the environment so measuring environmental collapse is difficult.

               7. Again you misunderstand me . -$ 37to$ 137 is a black swan event . This is not the norm . My forecast is $ 25 oil by lower limit 2025 and upper limit 2030 . There will be a drift as I have outlined in my post . Being an optimist is good but wasn’t it too much optimism that bought us to where we are today ? No, I am not a pessimist just a ” disappointed optimist ” they are also called realist. Just for your info even all the leading financial organisations only see a CHANCE of a recovery starting from 2023 . As to collapse ,two statements ” Collapse is a journey and not an event ” . Second ” If it has not happened to you ,don’t think it is not happening ” . Like I said ,I have a front row seat to the collapse unfurling in India and I was also a witness to the collapse in Greece when the ECB shut off the supply of Euros to the Greek banking system . Your version of collapse is cannibalism and zombies ,sorry , that is for Hollywood ,Bollywood and Tollywood . As I stated earlier we are already in a collapse ,only the world is not noticing or maybe better refuses to recognize reality . I am not the only one on this forum who is facing brickbats there are many others who are in the same boat as I am . Kudos to all you guys . Keep plugging .
                  P.S : I will also be having a front row seat to the upcoming collapse of UK . I live only 80 km away from the ferry terminal in Dover on the other side of the channel .

               8. hole in head,

                  Let’s take 2 major international financial organizations, IMF and World Bank.

                  IMF reference scenario (typically 50/50 odds output will be higher or lower than this) has World real GDP in 2021 at 100.23% of 2019 real GDP, they have a scenarios that are lower than this which you deem highly likely and they would call worst case scenarios (perhaps 5% to 10% probability that output is this low or lower).

                  https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020

                  World bank has real World output lower than 2019 in 2021 (98.78% of 2019 output), if we assume 2022 growth is the same as 2019 (2.4%), the World output is at 101.15% of 2019 output in 2022.

                  https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

                  If we take the average of the two institutions growth forecasts from 2019 to 2021 and then assume 2022 has the same growth rate as 2019 we get 2022 World real GDP at 102% of the 2019 level.

                  And yes, all predictions of the future will be wrong whether IMF, World Bank, yours, or mine. My guess is that reality will fall close to the range of the World Bank and IMF June 2020 predictions.

               9. Hole in head,

                  I pay more attention to Brent which is the defacto World price for oil. Brent has dipped to $39/bo recently, but again I focus on Monthly average price rather than daily price. The past 30 days (Aug 22 to Sept 21) the average Brent spot price was $42/bo, the low point was April at $18.40/bo, the general trend for Brent prices since April has been up, with a bit of weakness from Aug to Sept with prices dropping about $2/bo from 44 to 42 for 30 day average spot price.

               10. Dennis, the reason I refer to WTI is that in the last 8-10 years all additional output has come from non conventional resources based in North America . There pricing is governed by WTI and these will be the first sources that will have to shut off as they become grossly economically unviable . Further I have a gut feeling that once the price breaks the support line of $3o it will descend to $25 rapidly . However ,this is a gut feeling and I can’t back it up with data or history .

               11. hole in head,

                   I use Brent because the spread between Brent and WTI is fairly stable and Brent is usually referenced as the World price (the EIA has done this for many years, the IEA even longer).

                   I agree US output has been important and will become less so if oil prices remain low (under $50/bo).

                   Scenarios below show what happens for Permian basin (the bulk of future US output at roughly 2/3 of total URR) under a $75 /bo max oil price scenario (reaches this level in 2030) vs a $50/bo maximum oil price (reached in 2023). For the Permian basin the URR falls from 50 Gb for the higher oil price scenario to about 14 Gb for the lower oil price scenario.

                   

               12. The funny thing is that the Brent field is no longer in production…
                   https://www.shell.co.uk/sustainability/decommissioning/brent-field-decommissioning.html
                   Rgds
                   WeekendPeak

               13. Dennis , I have earlier commented if you are to go by IMF and WB ,Greece should be at the starting line for growth and Italy should be racing Usain Bolt . IMF, WB, EIA ,IEA, ECB all have been off mark so often that it is nothing short of the word “astonishing ” . My opinion ,all these international organisations are nothing but parking places for retired bureaucrats and rejected politicians in their home countries to draw a fat salary and big pensions . Example ; Herbert van RumPuy .President of the EU for 2 years . Did nothing but cut ribbons . Yearly salary Euro 500000 per year . Pension Euro 175000 per year . You want another one look up for yourself Christine Lagarde current boss at ECB . She knows as much about economics as six Joe Pack . If you believe these bums then I have bridge to sell you .

               14. hole in head,

                   Have you ever studied statistics? No prediction of future economic output has ever been correct, expectations that they would be shows a profound lack of understanding.

                   Number of possible future scenarios=infinity

                   Can you give me the odds that any future scenario will be correct?

               15. …..there is no guarantee humans will be intelligent enough to institute such policy.

                   “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” – Albert Einstein

               16. Dennis ,you are correct . “Number of possible future scenarios=infinity” .
                   You ,me,SS, Ron, Mike are not being paid to do statistical work or make forecasts for the world , whereas the folks at IMF and WB are well paid (I think a little bit too much)to crunch the numbers . In addition they have multiple sources of inputs compared to a layman like you or me . Yet, they are wrong most of the times .. There past record on incorrect forecasts which are based on incorrect hypothesis are for the world to fact check . We can be excused ,not these organisations . You are free to base your calculations on their output ,but I have no faith in their work .

               17. Dennis ,here is a statistical lie officially by the government .
                   It was an EU directive. It blew my mind a little at the time, I must confess. From 2014:

                   “Britain’s economy could be as much as £65bn bigger – almost 5% – when new GDP figures are published in September incorporating items such as prostitution and drug dealing under new statistical rules.”

               18. hole in head,

                   The statistics apply to everyone, even with an infinite amount of analysis of past data, the future remains unknown, this is a basic fact and regardless of how much one is paid to analyze past data to attempt to create a good scenario of the future, it will be wrong.

                   Criticizing those forecasts suggests you fail to see this.

6. Shallow you wrote “Anecdotal. A lot of the older large SUV and full size pickup trucks are being driven by low income people where I live. I’m talking 2010ish and prior models. 2007-2010 Ford Expeditions are very popular. Shouldn’t these folks be driving older Prius instead?”
   My dear friend in 2020 ” Stupid is king ” . 🙂

   1. Maybe.

      But, in many cases these vehicles are owned by younger low income families who have more than one child and many times also have other family living with them. They are being purchased for the same reason suburban “soccer moms” bought them new. I’d say the current owners are no more stupid than the original owners, probably less so, as they will get a much better $/per 1,000 miles value out of them. My better half drove a 2006 SUV for 12 years and put almost 300K miles on it. Very reliable. Hauled our kids everywhere. And she still got decent trade in for it, a little north of $6K.

      Many of these vehicles can be purchased for under $5,000. They can carry a lot of people and stuff. They are also perceived as being safer than small vehicles. They are also viewed as high quality, because they were “high end” vehicles when new. Even with 200K miles.

      As to the trucks, most men in the rural areas drive trucks. It’s a cultural thing, but also utilitarian.

      What might be forgotten is that in the recent past, trucks and SUV’s were the most popular vehicles. They might still be. So those 2010-2019 trucks and SUV’s will be driven by lower income families in 2020-2030, because that is what will be out there that is cheap, yet reliable.

      I just walked back from lunch right now past the many vehicles parked downtown, the majority of which transported someone to the afternoon criminal court call. More than half trucks, 1/3 SUV’s and mini-vans, the rest autos.

      This is what one sees in the rural areas. I know the cities are much different, and given demographics, probably more relevant.

      1. Yes, the used car market is much bigger than the new car market. Despite the weakening situation of the middle class, cars keep getting bigger and more feature laden, because most people never buy a new car.

         Poor people are stuck with the discarded gas guzzlers of the rich. The oil price doesn’t matter much if you can’t afford to buy a new fuel efficient vehicle anyway. Americans now owe about $1.2 trillion for cars, and 4% interest is common. 4% of $1.2 tr is $48 billion. No wonder US savings rates are so low.

         EVs will mostly be bought by fleet owners on current trends. They have the finances and a better overview of maintenance costs. As a result, heavily used vehicles will be EVs disproportionately often, meaning that the effect on demand for oil will be bigger than market share would suggest. Most cars stand idle 95% percent of the time, not burning fuel but still costing interest.

      2. Just took a 100 mile drive in my 2007 Yaris. Pretty rural– sometimes not another vehicle for 25 miles of road.
         Cost me in fuel under $10.00. Didn’t bring the Fly Rod, so home early.
         Big pickups are the choice among the workin class around here.
         I’m off road more than they are.
         I have a late model Subaru, but rarely drive it.

      3. Shallow sand,

         It seems to be a masculinity thing for many, prius worked fine for me with 2 kids, more than two would be difficult, but a minivan or Toyota Highlander would have worked with 3 kids, more than that a minivan would probably be more convenient than an Expedition in my opinion.

         Note that there are obviously many on farms and in construction trades that need a pickup truck, many buy them because everyone else does.

         1. Dennis.

            The reason I brought up what people are driving is to dispel the notion that $2.75 per gallon gasoline is unaffordable.

            I don’t understand that idea, but it is being said quite often.

            1. shallow sand,

               Agree 100%. Some who comment may be in India, no doubt oil prices may seem high there, for OECD nations, $2.75/gallon is not a problem, even $4/gallon probably not a problem, IMO.

               1. Dennis, gas here in W.Wales is $5.35 per gallon (£1.09 per litre). It was over $6 before Covid.

               2. UK is a good example. Demand is slightly declining despite recent low prices, and was rising at times when prices were high.

                  UK consumption hasn’t varied a lot from 1995-2019. But the price of gasoline has.

                  In the US I think EIA uses an elasticity factor of -0.02 for gasoline.

               3. John,

                  Yes prices are higher in Europe due to higher taxes on gasoline and diesel.

               4. John,

                  Recent UK petrol and diesel prices, prices are low today relative to 2014 and earlier, if adjusted for inflation (constant pounds), the real price would be even lower.

                  For real petrol prices for UK see page 22 of briefing linked below

                  https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04712/

                  

            2. Most consumers don’t mind the price of gas much, even if they bellyache. They have a hard time calculating the expense anyway, and not much data to work with.

               Fleet managers, on the other hand, know how expensive gas and maintenance are, and their budgets are dependent on it. That is why they are most likely to be early adopters of EVs. The success of the Prius as a taxi was an early sign of this trend.

7. Ron might be interested to know that in a recent Dallas Fed survey of 164 US upstream oil & gas CEO’s, 66% responded that they believe US oil production has peaked.

   I recall Ron being made fun of and this site being made fun of as recently as Q1 of this year.

   My how the tables have turned.

   1. shallow sand,

      Perhaps US production has peaked, I would put it at even odds. For World output, I think the odds of the peak being 2018 is lower, this is where Ron and I disagree, I think it likely the 2018 peak in centered average 12 month World C+C output will be surpassed in the 2027 to 2032 time frame.

      1. If output breaks the late 2018 all time peak set so far, then great. We can be safe in the knowledge that the current paradigm gets a few more years to exacerbate global carbon output effects. If not, then we finally may have an awakening into dealing with the situation at hand, although Mr. Coronavirus did get impatient with lack of awareness on these matters.

         I will watch the next six months unfold with keen eyes. The state the world comes out of this pandemic will feed into how we move on with a great many other pressing issues. If nothing else, the appreciation of working remotely, even if it has the ramification of killing the city centre, is a shift I did not foresee happening any time soon. Anyone holding WeWork shares?

      2. Scenario below uses a tight oil output scenario based on the $75/b maximum oil price scenario (Brent crude in 2019 US$/bo) presented elsewhere
         ( https://peakoilbarrel.com/may-non-opec-oil-production-drops-to-2013-levels/#comment-708821 ) .

         I also assume the average rate of decline in US C plus C minus tight oil from 2005 to 2020 of 16 kb/d per year triples in rate to 48 kb/d each year from Oct 2020 to Dec 2032, I use a slightly modified tight oil scenario as shown in chart.

         Peak average monthly US C plus C output through June 2020 is 12860 kb/d in November 2019, the scenario peak is 13245 kb/d in December 2030 .

         

         1. If we assume an oil price scenario where Brent rises to $50/bo by 2022 and remains at that level until 2053 and then declines gradually to $30/bo for a minimum, then the US C plus C output scenario is much different with a peak in Nov 2019. Assumptions about decline in US conventional (not tight) C plus C output same as previous scenario. Lower oil prices assumed to only affect tight oil output (reality might suggest this scenario is optimistic due to that assumption).

            

            1. What economic scenario do you think would lead to this pricing- severe prolonged recession/depression?

               1. Hickory,

                  So this scenario assumes the price of Brent crude never rises above $50/bo in 2019$.

                  I don’t think this is a likely scenario, but let’s say the current depression is prolonged, lasting until 2025 (also less than 20% probability imo). In the mean time, advances are made in EVs and the sales of EVs continue to increase as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales (maybe 30% change this will occur under depression conditions already assumed). Now assume OPEC+ nations start to become concerned that their oil resources will become stranded assets so OPEC+ falls apart and all nations produce and develop their resource at the maximum possible rate that will still enable them to produce at a profit. This causes a constant oversupply of oil that might conceivably drive oil prices to even less than $50/bo. I think that eventually this scenario is plausible, but expect the OPEC et al maximum production scenario does not begin until 2040 to 2050, the idea that this plays out from 2020 to 2030 has perhaps a 10% probability.

                  The chance that all three of these low probability scenarios all play out over the next 10 years is roughly 0.1 times 0.2 times 0.3 (taking my probability WAGs) or 0.006, which is a 0.6% probability.

                  So basically about a 99.5% probability that oil prices (and US output) will be higher than this scenario. The first US scenario (based on $75/bo Brent oil price maximum in 2019 US$ from 2030 to 2040) is my best guess (roughly 50% probability is my WAG).

                  The point was to show that an assumption of low oil prices leads to the conditions for output where supply is quite low and it is difficult to sustain the low oil price assumption without unreasonable assumptions. Or that is how I see it.

                  We will know who is more correct in 10 years, my guess is it is far more likely that the Brent spot price annual average in 2030 (in 2019 US$) will be more than $50/bo rather than less than $50/bo, probably 100 to one odds.

               2. Sounds rational to me,
                  The probability of a big unexpected influence in the coming decade, on the scale of fracking or pandemic, is considerable. And no one of us knows which way it will make the wind blow.

               3. Hickory,

                  Can you define considerable, I would put the odds that another unexpected development as impactful as Covid19 or the tight oil revolution at about 1 in 3.

                  Among these might be an acceleration of wind and solar adoption (or even continued adoption at a 25% average increase in output for 10 years) or the approval of autonomous driving systems in most nations. On the other hand we might reach various theorized climate tipping points.

   2. shallow sand,

      Maybe these CEOs have finally realized that talking down the price of oil (by falsely claiming they are profitable at $40/bo) is not a great strategy for maximizing profits?

      They are slow learners, but eventually maybe they will get it. 🙂

8. This may sound like some dramatic change, but in reality it is just a matter of the leadership acknowledging where the market will already be-

   ‘California Governor Orders End Of Gasoline & Diesel Car Sales By 2035’

   So, you could still buy a new ICE vehicle in Calif in 2034 under this ruling. But sales of ICE will already be rare after 2030 in Calif . Mark my word. It’s bankable.

   “What is unclear at this point is how the order applies to light duty pickup trucks, which happen to be especially popular in California. The Ford F-150 is the best selling vehicle in the state year after year. The order does not refer specifically to pickups but it seems unlikely they are not covered by the order. “

   1. Hickory.

      15 years ago was 2005.

      2035 is a long way away.

      7% of light transport nationwide USA EV in 2030 is what I have seen.

      10 years ago was 2010.

      We keep acting like this stuff is happening tomorrow.

      I don’t think it is. It’s coming, but it’s going to take massive lifting.

      And again, we are talking about new vehicles.

      The first EV in my county was purchased in 2012. In 2020 there are four EV in my county registered. I know of two of them. Not sure of the other two, but wondering if one is a 1980s era novelty that I have seen in local parades.

      This is out of over 15,000 registered vehicles in my little county.

      1. How will the rolling blackouts increase in CA. Will need more roof top PVs

      2. Shallow + Sand
         “2035 is a long way away. ”
         yes, that was the main point I was trying to convey.

      3. shallow sand,

         For the US the rate of new plugin vehicle sales was about 1.93% of all light vehicle sales in 2019 and in 2012 it was about 0.37%. So a factor of 5 increase over 7 years, if we see the same increase over the next 7 years we would be at 9.65% of new light vehicle sales in 2026 and another factor of 5 over the next 7 years would take us to 48% of new light vehicle sales in 2033. I don’t expect this rate will necessarily be realized, it will depend on incentives and battery costs, but 95% of new vehicle sales by 2040 seems possible. This means of course there will still be many legacy vehicles left on the road, over the next 15 years most ICEV in the light vehicle category will become idle with perhaps 1% of total light vehicle miles travelled being non-electric in 2055.

         1. Report on EVs

            https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/manufacturing/deloitte-uk-battery-electric-vehicles.pdf

            They predict 20% of global new light vehicle sales will be plugin vehicles (includes BEV and plugin hybrid) by 2030. I believe it will be 30% minimum (new light vehicle sales) by 2030.

            1. Some link regarding EV(ish) car sales in the EU:
               https://insideevs.com/news/441126/europe-plugin-car-sales-july-2020/
               https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electric/latest-europe-electric-and-plug-in-hybrid-car-sales-per-eu-and-efta-country/

               https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/16/dutch-electric-vehicle-sales-explosion-market-will-not-return-to-normal/#rest

               It looks like high growth in this segment is not only possible, but also actually happening. Clearly, as the number of EV(ish) cars increases the % growth will do down although the number of cars will increase.
               WeekendPeak

   2. The first law of holes, or the law of holes, is an adage which states: “if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging”.

      Kennedy announced on May 25, 1961, that the United States would commit itself to a lunar landing before 1970. At that time, only one American human spaceflight, Shepard’s 15-minute suborbital journey, had been made.

      It’s my opinion that 2035 isn’t early enough. It should be 2030, include the entire county or world and no later. Even if the auto manufactures aren’t ready to replace all production with EV’s until 2035. For those who believe they must have an ICE. Let them stock up prior to 2030. Let manufactures make record sales and profits prior to 2030 selling high mileage ICE.

      In addition, apply a $20 a barrel tariff on imports and $20 Federal discount on exports. Flood Europe with cheap natural gas.

      Stick it to the Russians for medaling in American elections

      1. By 2035 there will be few combustion engine cars on sale anyway. The big car companies are stopping investment on the next generation of internal combustion engines. What engines are produced by the mid 30s will play second fiddle electricity in cars.

         Engine life cycles are long. That is how you can see now what will happen in 10-15 years. You won’t notice much in the short term, but down the road the lack of investment will end the industry.

         Countries that have banned new combustion engine cars starting 2030: UK, Germany, Israel, Netherlands, Sweden. In Norway it’s 2025.

   3. Hickory ,by 2035 there will be no automotive industry ICE ,EV ,hydrogen or bullshit driven and you can take it to the bank .

      1. Doubtful.

      2. Is the sky still blue in your reality?

         1. doodles,

            Hole in head seems to be from the UK, so sky is grey.

            1. The sky is always grey in the UK that’s why we invented industry.

               1. ?

9. The article mentions fracking in CA. That must be a mistake. I think they are after the Kern river field that uses SAGD.

10. Hickory , you commented ”So, you could still buy a new ICE vehicle in Calif in 2034 under this ruling. But sales of ICE will already be rare after 2030 in Calif . Mark my word. It’s bankable. ”
    Bankable ? You my dear friend are smoking the wrong brand of “Hopium” . Statutory warning ” Smoking hopium is injurious to health .”

    1. I am data driven, not hope.
       Check back in 15 years h in h
       And I do think it bankable- as in you can bet on it and do really well.
       Stocks in electric transport and electrification of transport have been on a huge tear in the past five years, and its is still early days for this industry (2nd inning has just begun). As far as hope goes, sure I hope you have joined me on the excellent investment path.
       1 yr Ford -20%, GM -22%, Exxon -52% [not where I have been]
       1 yr Solaredge 135%, BYD 174% ,Enphase 214%, Tesla 709%, Nio 925%

       The biggest car maker in the world is VW. Watch them over 5 years. They are in now in the electric car ball game, and its early first inning for them.
       On the road within 6 months- VW ID4
       https://www.vw.com/models/id4/section/colors/?ssem=ssem_lid=43700057335252450&ds_s_kwgid=58700006354852745_467104054066_c&gclsrc=aw.ds&gclid=CjwKCAjwh7H7BRBBEiwAPXjadsk1Pov1YahwZ8vmTHCEgMQr4pKdy9pQD3ECltCOK73pQDYCgTLpAxoCnpAQAvD_BwE

       1. The smart money is investing in humanure. The Fumainerie installed its first 40 dry toilets in a pilot project in Bordeaux https://jadopteunprojet.com/decouvrez-les-projets/detail/la-fumainerie. The cost of a public toilet for the homeless in Los Angeles is $300,000 per year https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2019/06/10/300k-anually-one-bathroom-l-s-homeless/. Huge business opportunity there.

          1. I just love it; investing in shit.
             I agree of course, but it’s amusing just the same.
             Hey if the shit’s going to hit the fan, we might as well invest in it.

             Here’s one from 2014:

             “Like, Nick G’s mention of ‘indoor plumbing’ might have to be kind of modified with the keepsake turd in mind.” ~ Caelan MacIntyre

       2. Hickory , if you are data driven then I am a data fanatic . However I do not smoke “Hopium” and keep my feet firmly planted on the ground and my eyes on the road . As to 15 years (2035) I have already commented on an earlier post that there will be no automotive industry . Regarding the stock prices , I must submit I am from the old school where wealth (not money ) was earned with blood ,sweat and tears and not by paper shuffling . No , I bear no grudge or envy you ( or Mr Musk) for your monetary gains in the stock market . You and Mr Musk along with many others know how to game the system and I am sure I would do the same ,but where I stand today it is not worth the effort . Better for me to engage in other activities for the few years I have left on the planet , since I have survived two bouts with cholera , a bout with colon cancer and recently a bout with prostate cancer . I am unfortunately ,not a cat . Best of wishes and luck in all your endeavors .

          1. I’m a fulltime worker. Long career.
             And so yes, I have savings that I use for productive purposes.

             I do not subscribe to your worldview h h

             1. No problem . We agree to disagree . Also if everyone holds the same worldview it would be a pretty boring world . 🙂

          2. Hole in head,

             See

             https://www.amazon.com/China-Study-Comprehensive-Nutrition-Implications-ebook/dp/B01LYGP469/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

             or for something shorter

             https://www.amazon.com/Prevent-Reverse-Heart-Disease-Nutrition-Based/dp/1583333002/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1601056881&sr=1-3

             Whole Foods Plant based diet won’t help with cholera, but might help prevent many other diseases, the first book is more general, but long (496 pages), the second focuses on Heart disease, but the dietary recommendations are nearly the same.

             If you like videos the following is pretty good

             https://www.google.com/search?q=how+not+to+die+video&oq=how+not+to+die+video&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l3j0l3.6531j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#kpvalbx=_1TFuX-ipE42-ggfrqIioAg35

             1. Thanks Dennis . Will go thru these asap .Take care .

                1. Hole in head,

                   Shorter video (20 minutes) summarizing the longer “How not to die” video by Michael Gregor, MD at link below

                   https://www.ideacity.ca/video/dr-michael-greger-not-die/

                2. Tks . Appreciated .

11. Iran Opens Navy Base At World’s Most Crucial Oil Chokepoint
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Opens-Navy-Base-At-Worlds-Most-Crucial-Oil-Chokepoint.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+oilpricecom+(Oil+Price.com+Daily+News+Update)

    1. That’s ok, cuz PV’s, EV’s and COVID-2020.

       Do you like the rainbow? I like the rainbow.

       

       1. The rainbow is kool—–

12. Lots of comments about Elon Musk up above.
    Its a nice discussion for Entertainment or People magazine,
    but the meat of the story of Tesla story is something entirely different.

    Its about a wildly successful attempt to modernize and innovate in the transportation sector.
    And the particular Tesla vehicles are not the important part.
    Its the batteries and energy management software that will have the deepest impact and success.

    Being a US citizen, I am biased, glad that it is a domestic company out in front on this.
    Once oil depletion is further underway, all will look back and be glad that Tesla got the ball rolling on adaptation in a significant way.

    1. You mean continuing on the same path as BAU, but now with the salve of delusions that getting to two billion BEVs is somehow good for the planet because at least no one’s pumping gas.

       Musk, I might remind you, is also the guy who thinks we should be looking to Mars as Plan B for Earth. I love science fiction, just as an actual scientist, I kinda know when there’s a fiction part to quash teenage boy dreams. I guess if someone’s going to keep up the idea that motoring is a thing that we can keep doing (despite the overwhelming evidence that EVs aren’t going to change the big picture of oil depletion), and that we can just switch to renewables and be “sustainable”, we don’t need to worry about the planet.

       It’s really too bad it’s all bunkum, because I could almost buy into that idea that we’re not facing collapse square in the eye.

       So, yeah. We solve gas lines by getting sub-twenty grand EVs that can pretty much do what any ICE can do now. Changes nothing in the grand scheme of things regarding our energy predicament and general overshoot. In fact, it’s probably harmful to allow people to go along with the erroneous ideas that all is well because PowerWall, PV cells on the roof, heat pumps, and a brand new Tesla is all one needs to tick all the green credentials now.

       Then we just need to uplift the other 7 billion humans into this lifestyle. Easy and totally trouble free for the environment.

       1. Hi Kleiber,

          Well said.

       2. The Ignorati

          Yup, but of course some people don’t bother with those kinds of inconvenient details and related, because onward and upward, and just hit the ignore button on any person/any facet of reality that doesn’t conform, doesn’t get with the program, doesn’t play the game, doesn’t game the system, doesn’t chase the almighty buck, doesn’t follow the money.
          Oh, wait, if you follow the money, you might discover something of how Musk got his (Daddy, some dumb luck and corporate ‘welfare’ by fleeced taxpayer?) or how money has little to do with reality, with Terra Firma, except where destroying it by ignoring it (via the symbolism that is money) is concerned.
          What do I mean? I mean, in part, that if I got lucky and/or gamed the system, I could make more money than others who may not like the idea of being ‘players’ and playing against their fellow human beings (and fellow terrestrial residents for that matter) in that kind of system/game. And what would I do with my money? Well, I could– by decrees of ‘elite rule’, AKA, ‘the law’ (pretty pretentious, ay?, as if it’s a fundamental aspect of physics)– buy up lots of land and resources out from others’ feet (and just sit/squat on/charge rent for it), thereby risking conditions for homelessness, landlessness, wealth disparity and poverty and what comes out of those, like so-called crime and social unrest.

          “Social unrest?! Quick, the ignore-button!”

          Wealth? What’s that? Is that what you take from others or somehow prevent them, such as via State thugs, AKA cops, from rightfully acquiring, from the commons, from Earth, from what is everyone’s because they were born of/from it, with your money via your musical-chairs economy where no one actually wins when the music finally stops?

          See also my song-pictorial comment on the non-petroleum side

       3. Kleiber,

          I agree all is not well. The idea is that potentially a higher proportion of miles travelled with electric vehicles charged with electricity produced by non-fossil fuel energy sources might reduce carbon dioxide emissions which are a major cause of climate change. In addition fewer total vehicle miles should be travelled using fewer vehicles (transportation as a service might allow this to occur and might also increase riders per vehicle in more densely populated areas.)

          There are many other approaches to reducing impact such as improved energy efficiency, cradle to grave manufacturing, better quality products built to last 100 years or more, improved agricultural practices, less consumption of animal products (which is likely to improve health as well as the environment).

          There is no single solution to the complex set of problems the World faces, there is an interconnected web of problems and the solutions (if they exist) will likely be a very complex interconnected set of flexible policies. When I look back at the past half century, there has never really been a BAU, I see constant change looking back and imagine that will continue in the future.

          1. I would add to that good comment, a system focused on ethics and equity.

             1. Caelan,

                Agree a system that is ethical and equitable would be nice, I would note that no such system has ever existed in the real world. It is a nice goal to strive for, it’s easy if you try.

                imagine no possessions, i wonder if you can, no need for greed or hunger, a brotherhood of man, imagine all the people sharing all the world… john lennon

                It is a world many would love to see, we have a long way to go.

                1. Dennis,

                   Maybe such a ‘system’, if we can call it that, or reasonable approximation, has indeed existed in small locales/villages/tribes, if not in all of them, in the past.

                   And maybe there are as well, couched implications within that statement above.

                2. caelan,

                   One can fantasize that in a small tribal setting this existed and further that all conflicts between tribes were settles in ethical, equitable, non-violent ways,
                   history and archaeology suggests otherwise.

                3. Dennis,

                   Kindly review the thread and note how you ‘converted’ my ‘system focused on ethics and equity‘ to ‘a system that is ethical and equitable‘ and then spun it thusly; ‘I would note that no such system has ever existed in the real world…‘.

                   I could add more, as tempting as it is, but we’ll leave it simple for now. If you want to take this over to the other side, I can look for it there.

                4. Inspiration From Nature: Matters of Ecosociocultural Disequilibrium & Regaining Equilibrium

                   Hypothetical (C. pre-1970’s):

                   Dennis:“I would note that we have never been to the moon or had an international space station (or whatever) before. History and archeology suggests this.”

                   NASA member:“Ah, what? Oh, you again. Ever heard of ‘the future’ or ‘potential’ or are the grape vine rumors true that you like to sometimes have the option of saying, perhaps in the interest of appearing humble, that you have a hard time with it, are not very good at ‘projections’?”

                   Dennis:“Well we have a long way to go, bla bla bla…”

                   NASA member:“Uh ya ok, let’s maybe get back to work or we’ll bring in the Director and have a word about your influence on the morale of the staff.”

                   😀

                   “…not sure there are many CEOs that are nice guys, you know the saying, the shit floats to the top.” ~ Dennis Coyne

                   If the ‘top-floating shit’ contributes to throwing things in nature and the human condition increasingly toward disequilibrium, what does nature do about that, if anything, about things that are out of equilibrium?

                   Might expressed concerns and efforts surrounding ecologics and ethics be part of nature’s way to counteract disequilibrium?

                   As a related aside, I’ve heard about, if recalled correctly, this previously-vegetarian caterpillar in Hawaii that evolved a propensity toward the meat of some sort of fly that was apparently in unusual abundance.
                   It is possible that the flies initially represented a slight disequilibrium in the Hawaiian ecosystem that it then used the caterpillars to counteract.

                   Even if that’s untrue, the point being made still stands. The point, however, is not to literally eat the rich or ‘not nice guys’. For one, there are simply not enough of them. But that might be the good news.

                   The point would be in part to reject their impositions– their toxic aspects in particular– on our ‘ecosystem’.

                   But how to do it? Well, first, you have to actually notice it, accept it and then work on the kinds of responses needed, oh, like maybe alternative social structures that have more of a focus on decentralization, ecologics and ethics, rather than centralization, power and capital accumulation.

13. September 25

    US oil rigs are up by 4
    EF +2 to 11
    Permian +2 to 123

    

14. Many moons ago I attempted to determine what percentage of oil consumption was devoted to food production. And I think I threw in food transport. My recall is the number was somewhere between 10 and 20%.

    YouTube has a number of channels devoted to big farms. The YouTube income is roughly the equivalent of the traditional farmer’s wife who gets a job in town the plug the financial holes that open up when grain prices decrease.

    The particular item most glaringly obvious in all of the videos is that the estimates on fuel consumption for food production grossly underestimated. Okay, they drive a a tractor out in Spring to plant seeds and then run the tractor again to spray for insects and then spray for mold and then spray for weeds.

    Then come harvest time the tractor is pulling a grain cart alongside the combine and collecting grain from the combine’s bin that is then hauled over to the semi truck parked on the road, because it really cannot leave the road without getting stuck. Harvest is a three-vehicle task.

    But then there is December through March, and there is June through September. Those months are devoted to fixing things and getting them ready for the next event. The things in question are enormous parts of these enormous tractors. They require a gasoline-powered skid steer to lift them into position for attaching. Throughout all the months of the year there’s diesel powered stuff running around that farm doing all sorts of different things. Preparation is a big deal because there are only so many weeks available for planting and only so many weeks to harvest before the food rots in the field.

    These guys are preparing every single day and burning big numbers of diesel gallons every single day.

    1. Here is some data on this-
       “The U.S. food system accounted for 15.7 percent of total U.S. energy consumption in 2007, up from 14.4 percent in 2002 (10). On-farm production amounts to approximately 20% of the total system energy, while 40% of agricultural energy use goes into the manufacture of chemical fertilizers and pesticides (9)….The share of total US energy consumption by agricultural operations [on farm] was approximately 2.73% in 2008 (3), making energy use by agriculture fairly insignificant in terms of reducing total consumption of energy by the nation.”

       https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/nrcs141p2_023113.pdf

       Any other good data on this important topic would appreciated.

       

15. US Frac spread count rose for Week ending 9/25 to 101 from 89 last week.

    See
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1ATPMPoovA

    Four week centered average now at 91 up 10 from 4 weeks earlier when it was 81.

    The low 4 week centered average frack spread count was mid May at 48, in mid June it was about 73.

    

16. US tight oil output from spreadsheet file at EIA (link to spreadsheet below)

    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/data/US-tight-oil-production.xlsx

    This is the most recent official EIA tight oil estimate through August 2020.

    August output was 6957 kb/d, July was 6768 kb/d, June was 6516 kb/d, and the May low was 6262 kb/d, peak in March at 8319 kb/d.

    Since the May 2020 minimum, output has increased by about 700 kb/d, with 315 kb/d of the increase from the Bakken, about a 190 kb/d increase from the Permian, with the rest of the increase (about 200 kb/d) from other US tight oil basins (and some condensate from shale gas basins). Potentially hedges have enabled some producers to continue to produce at these low market prices

    

17. One thing I see coming soon is the USA not having an “election night” as usual; instead, due to covid and more mail in votes it’ll be an election week, as counting takes longer. Trumps team forecasts that too, as well as they forecast that more Dims will use mail than repugs. Trump’s plan is to delegitimize mail in with his stupid shit posting then call a mid count court challenge to stop the count. In the past mid count was usually like 1 am. This year it’ll be a Thursdsy.

    1. My apologies, wrong category. I’ll take it across the street.

18. This post is related to oil.

    What do Trump and US shale have in common?

    Massive net operating loss carrybacks and carryforwards and pay no income taxes.

    At least US shale’s NOL’s weren’t fraudulently taken.

    1. shallow sand,

       How are things in the conventional patch faring at these oil prices? Has most of shut in production from April and May come back on line in the basins in your state? I would think many would be waiting for higher oil prices, but maybe $37/bo for WTI is enough to break even for the average low volume conventional well?

       1. Real imported crude price 2004 to present in 2020 US$/bo, data from EIA.

          This has been one of the worst periods since 2004.

          

          1. Dennis. Keep in mind LOE in 2004 was probably a little less than half what it is today, more or less.

             I know you have adjusted for inflation, but a well in 2004 is producing much less in 2020 and therefore LOE per BOPD is much more , even after adjusting for inflation.

             Also, there weren’t a lot of shale wells in 2004. I suspect LOE for 2006-14ish shale wells is fairly high as a group, compared to 1990-1998ish conventional wells in 2004.

             1. shallow sand,

                I wonder if we looked at the average output of conventional wells in the US today vs 2004, if average output per well would be much different, perhaps LOE has increased, if you adjust for inflation what would be the difference from 2004 to 2020 for LOE in your basin? You could give me the nominal LOE change and I could easily convert to the real cost change. Basically the change in the price level (based on CPI) is about 36.5% from 2004 to 2020, so if your average LOE was $10/bo in 2004 it would be $13.65 in 2020, if cost increases merely matched the rate of inflation (based on CPI).

                Also according to EIA data for output per well for US average well producing less than 15 boe/d in 2004 it was 2.49 bo/d and in 2018 it was 2.39 bo/d, so there was a drop in output for the average stripper well, but only a 4% drop in output.

       2. Not good. Just paying bills, some leases not even that, some making out ok.

          Largest operator still has 70% SI.

          This year seems somewhat worse than 2016, probably worse than 1998-early 1999.

          Probably won’t be a lot of percentage depletion deduction taken.

          1. Sorry it is going badly, best wishes for rising oil prices, EIA is predicting $45/bo for imported crude price by Dec 2021. I realize they are almost as bad as me in their scenarios of the future. My guess is that without an increase in oil price tight oil output will not recover which should help to increase the price of oil.

             If we eventually develop a vaccine for covid and it gets distributed widely worldwide, along with treatments for covid19 being developed we might see an economic recovery in 2021 to 2022 which will help raise demand for oil and also bring oil prices up.

             1. Compare the good and bad things of more/less world crude oil production with the good and bad things of yes/no lockdown during this pandemic, though the time scale is completely different.

                More crude oilproduction:
                – good for the economy (for growth still, if not ‘ever’, depending on increasing oilproduction)
                – bad for climate change (reinforcing positive feedback loops), though the amount of coal and natural gas burned also counts of course. Some climate tipping points probably reached already or not many years in the future.

                Declining (terminal decline) oilproduction:
                – bad for the economy, though many disagree
                – good for mitigating climate change

                No or very limited lockdown during pandemic
                – good for the economy
                – bad for the amount of deaths and permanently disabled.

                Lockdown, more or less completely:
                – good for public health, in the beginning
                – bad for the economy. Time scale: if this lasts for a long time also turning bad for public health (violence and suicides rising, chronic illnesses rising)

          2. shallow sand,

             I suppose those leases that don’t pay bills are still operating because risk of problems with a shut in outweigh small operating losses and prices are likely to increase somewhat to get back in black for those leases. If EIA’s STEO estimate for August with WTI spot price reaching $47/bo by Oct 2021 is correct, hopefully you will be in black for all leases, they have WTI at $41/bo in Dec 2020, of course they are wrong 100% of the time (as am I).

       3. I tought most of the production in US shale is hedged to higher oil prices and that is why they still are able to produce at oil prices below break even cost. Guess sone day thoose contracts shall be renewed with respect to current WTI.price.

          1. Freddy,

             It is not clear that most output is hedged, only some of it, and many of those hedges will expire by the end of 2020. If oil prices do not recover we could see a big down turn in tight oil output in 2021.

19. Another 9000 jobs lost at Shell . Low prices are killing the industry .
    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/shell-plans-to-cut-up-to-9000-jobs-in-transition-plan/78400855

    1. hole in head,

       low prices lead to lower supply so not unexpected, if oil prices continue to fall as you expect, oil supply will continue to fall. What is your expectation is for World real GDP in 2025 relative to the 2019 level (or pick 2023 or any other year you would like to guess at)?

       1. Dennis , it would be stupid of me to make a forecast because the financial world is now in the land of the absurd . Just two examples for clarification :
          1. Powell says he will stop with inflation targeting(which was 2%) and let inflation go higher . Simultaneously he says he does not foresee a rise in interest rates till 2023 . Absurd ,if inflation is 3% then who will buy the US debt at 0.75% ? How will the deficit which is going to be running at $ 2 trillion per year going to be financed ? Will the FED buy all debt ?
          2. So much crap (forbearance , stimulus payments ,Junk bonds and many other junk securities like CMBS ) has been swept under the carpet and nobody has an inkling how much is hidden, what is hidden and where is it hidden . The FED floated so many SPV’s to buy almost all assets that were not pegged . Kick the can down the road ,no transparency . Well ,this crap is going to comeback and hit the system . When ? Nobody knows . Debt has been issued even by Junk rated or just above junk rated countries as if they are the reserve currency (example India, Indonesia, Thailand ). This is going to blowback and destabilize their economies .
          So no figurative forecasts . I stand by my earlier statement made several times “there is no going back to pre covid 2020 “. Too many negative feedback loops are in play .

          1. Plenty of people buy US treasuries because it is seen as a safe investment. Not likely we will see 3% inflation during a depression, it will be closer to 0%. Total US Federal debt is 26.5 trillion with about 4.6 trillion held by Fed as of 2020Q2. Most of the debt will be purchased by private entities.

             As I have stated repeatedly things constantly change, just because World real GDP returns to the 2019 level or higher does not imply things will be the same as before, just not the way the world works, every moment is new, history never repeats.

             1. Dennis ,having trouble posting comments . Any reason .

                1. Seems to be working now .

             2. Dennis , I have earlier commented ” there will be inflation in all things essential (except oil) and deflation in all things non essential ” . I stand by this statement . I have already posted earlier why the inflation figures posted by the governments are understated . However just for your reading that will clarify things . Central Bankers have lost control ,they are flying by the wire and jaw boning .
                https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/if-the-velocity-of-money-picks-up-will-inflation-soar
                Mish Shedlock has been voted as one of the top 25 financial bloggers by Time Magazine .

                1. Hole in head,

                   Mish says this in conclusion:

                   Velocity is a useless, inconsistent measure of something that has morphed over time yet never had an independent existence of its own.

                   Attempting to predict prices from velocity or velocity from prices is a fool’s mission.

                   Mish

                   There are no perfect measures in economics.

                   It seems to me Mish thinks velocity of money is irrelevant.

20. Comparison of my US scenario for C C (maximum oil price for Brent of $75/bo in 2019$ by 2030, $49/bo in Dec 2021) with the STEO forecast from Sept 2020. My guess is that my scenario will be on the low side and the STEO on the high side (my scenario failed to account for hedging which might lead to higher output for tight oil in 2020 than my model). Reality may fall somewhere between these two scenarios, the average of the two is also shown, but clearly this is just for illustration, any of the infinite number of possible paths that fall between my scenario and the STEO are possible and my guess is there is roughly a 65% probability the path of output will fall between the two scenarios shown here (this assumes that oil prices fall between the range predicted by the EIA and my oil price scenario. These price scenarios see Brent crude prices rising to between $49/bo (DC scenario) and $51/bo (STEO) in Dec 2021.

    

21. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2020-09-29/top-us-oil-refiner-marathon-petroleum-begins-widespread-job-cuts-sources
    Bad news .

    1. This has a lot to do with Paul Singer and Elliott Management.

       Read about what happened to Sidney, NE after Singer forced Cabela’s to be sold to Bass Pro Shops.

       Lots of bloodletting going on in the big cities and small towns in MPC’s refinery chain this week. All high paying jobs.

       1. SS , I understand what you are saying . Private Equity(PE) has destroyed US manufacturing in the name of “value investing ” . Value investing for them is ” profits for the PE” and poverty for the workers of the company they invested in . They have destroyed great brands ,great companies and put a great many people into poverty . They are termites . Period . But, but who permitted this ? Definitely it is not Putin . Well ,now is too little and too late . As ye shall sow ,so shall ye reap .As I posted for you and Mike S ” Take care, winter is coming ” . Be well

22. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Covid-19-Oil-Stockpiles-to-Weigh-on-Market-15571538.php

    SS and Mike S , this does not bode well for you guys . This is going to squeeze you independents for a long time to come . Take care ,winter is coming .

23. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/policy-makers-should-have-freedom-to-lift-rates-kaplan-says
    No recovery till 2023 . The FED which is always optimistic(recovery just around the corner) said it .

24. https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-lyondellbasell-cut-houston-refinery-223152702.html
    Another causality in the oil industry . A question ? Why do US and European based refineries loose money but Asia based specially the ones based in India have bumper profits ?

    1. Just guessing, they probably operate closer to full capacity – you do not make any money running a refinery at idle, the industry is capital intensive. It could also be that they are more modern and/or supply markets with better margins. European refineries are a sunset industry characterised by overcapacity, closures and poor profit margins. They were built a long time ago to maximise petroleum output but the “diselisation” of the European transport sector and peak petrol demand required them to focus more on suppling diesel. It is a bit of limbo right now with the diesel/jet glut and uncertainty of when and to what extent demand will comeback.

       1. Our local refinery has been operating at capacity since late-April. It only reduced capacity for one month. But it is laying off a lot of people, which will greatly damage our small community.

          As technology runs at warp speed, many good paying jobs will be lost. I assume refineries in other parts of the world pay employees less and have worse safety records.

          I am worried about safety locally given the massive cost cutting going on. A major turnaround has been delayed (it was already past due). Several experienced employees being let go. All the contractors sent out of the gates.

          One has to look no further than BP to see what happens when cost cutting goes overboard in refining. Texas City was tragic.

25. Shell plans to cut 9,000 jobs in transition plan

    Royal Dutch Shell announced on Wednesday plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs, or over 10% of its workforce, as part of a major overhaul to shift the oil and gas giant to low-carbon energy.

    Shell, which had 83,000 employees at the end of 2019, said that the reorganization will lead to annual savings of $2 billion to $2.5 billion by 2022.

    Last month it launched a broad review of its business aimed at cutting costs as it prepares to restructure its operations as part of the shift to low-carbon energy.

26. Big Oil to sell off assets.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-majors-disposals/big-oils-110-billion-asset-sale-target-could-prove-big-ask-idUKKBN26M6C9?il=0

    1. Dellboy , thanks for the link . The oil industry just like
       1. Aircraft manufacturing (commercial )
       2 . Ship building
       3 Mining and extraction
       is now uneconomical .
       Add to this the oil and gas industry and the automotive industry .
       US Treasury gave $ 25 billion last quarter to the airline industry and another $ 25 billion last Tuesday .
       What will it do ? Keep zombies alive .
       We have now entered the collapse of industrial civilization ( no not human civilization ) . It is not going to be pleasant . This is just the beginning . I am witnessing a collapse in real time in India . Crime , starvation , poverty increasing at an astonishing rate . I have posted earlier ” Just because it is not happening to you , don’t think it is not happening “. Be well and most important be aware and awake ( I presume you are ) .
       P.S : Why the automotive industry ? VW just fired 9500 persons even after taking the state aid on the promise by VW to the German govt that they will be retained . Heck , VW is going to be a leader in the EV vehicle market in a few years and they fire trained workers. Give me a break . I have said EV is the next scam like shale oil . Nicola has fallen , Rivan is next and will be followed by many others mainly that are purely EV manufacturers . Those companies that have a mix of ICE and EV MIGHT survive ,but not very sure about this .The issue is not technology ,the issue is affordability .

       1. Beam

          So you are in India?

          I’m overjoyed, so to speak, by the decline and/or collapse of industrial civilization and that it at least appears to be happening in my lifetime.

          I’ve said it before that if I was an anthropologist of the future with a time machine and could pick a time to visit and study, it would likely be now.

          Of course I don’t have to because I’m alive now. Seriously, I’m not from the future. Well, maybe one day, they will beam me back, tell me I was part of a baby-swap, and ask me to fill them in on what it was like. They might beam with pride when I tell them that I turned into an anarchist, despite the indoctrination over my lifetime. Then again, they might inform me that I wasn’t the only baby that was swapped and that most anarchists are actually from the future, from an enlightened, time-traveling society that transcended pecking-orders and learned to truly work with each other and with nature.

          If we survive, our decendants are going to wonder about the cities and ribbons of asphalt all over the place and the number of dead species, chemicals and radioactivity in the sedimentary layers and so on, as well as all these ‘computers’ and what kind of irretrievable information might have been stored on the long-decayed storage media. Lolcats?

          1. Yes, Caelen for those who understand what is happening and why it is happening this is an interesting time . For others it is fluff and doomerism . I always say I am a not a pessimist ,but a ” disappointed optimist ” they are also called realists . On the second part of your post I agree 100 % . What were we thinking ? 20 years from now when people visit Dubai , Riyadh , Doha, Abu Dhabi that is what they will say . What were these guys thinking ?
             P.S : 20 years from now how will we go to Dubai,Riyadh,Doha and AbuDhabi is another question .:-)

             1. Camel

27. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/oil-industry-sinks-as-exxon-brings-on-more-bad-news-2313037
    Sorry guys , I don’t make the news ,just report it .

28. A new July US oil production thread has been posted.

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-continues-to-rise/

    A new Non-Petroleum open thread has been posted

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-october-1-2020/

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