Permian – Page 7 – Peak Oil Barrel

The EIA’s Questionable Numbers

07/02/201507/02/2015 Ron Patterson 509 Comments

The EIA’s, on June 30th, published its Petroleum Supply Monthly. I Think their numbers are just way too high. I compared them with the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The chart below shows the Results.

I averaged the weekly numbers and converted them to monthly data. They were pretty close for the first three months of 2014 but then they begin to diverge. Of course they were much closer earlier but in the Petroleum Supply Monthly has, over several months, been revised upward. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report is never revised.

In April, the Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US C+C production 322,000 barrels per day above the weekly average of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

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The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report

06/08/201506/08/2015 Ron Patterson 237 Comments

The EIA has released its latest Drilling Productivity Report. There were some interesting data presented in the report.

They say the Bakken peaked at 1,311,703 barrels per day in March and will have declined by 74,763 bpd in July.

The EIA says the Bakken will get 51,000 barrels per day in July from new wells but legacy wells will decline by 80,000 barrels per day leaving a decline of 29,000 bpd.

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Texas RRC March Production Data

05/18/201505/18/2015 Ron Patterson 569 Comments

The Texas RRC is out with their latest Oil and Gas Production Data. Looks like oil production has leveled out with March production pretty much level with February. All RRC data is trough March 015.

I always show the last 6 months or the RRC data in order to get a pretty good indication of which way data production is moving. From the data you can see that December was a very good month but January was just awful. February was a lot better and March was about the same as February.

The chart above was created by Dean Fantazzini, PhD, of the Moscow School of Economics. He has developed an algorithm which predicts what the data will reflect after the final data has come in. His data suggests that Texas crude has plateaued.

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OPEC April Data + The EIA’s DPR

05/12/201505/12/2015 Ron Patterson 147 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with crude only production numbers for all OPEC countries for April 2015.

According to their secondary sources OPEC 12 production was up 18,000 bpd but that was after March production had been revised up 39,000 bpd.

Saudi was up 27,000 bpd. They are still 15,000 bpd below their peak in August 2013.

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Bakken, What Is The Data Telling Us?

04/30/201505/01/2015 Ron Patterson 367 Comments

North Dakota publishes, every month, a Monthly Statistical Update from which we can gather a wealth of data if we dig deep enough. They publish the number of spuds, that in new wells started, each month, along with the average number of rigs that month. From this we can glean the average number of days each rigs spends on each well.

The last data point is March, 2015. Through 2011 a rig could drill about .75 wells per month, or about 40 days spud to spud. Today that figure is about 1.14 wells per month or about 26.3 days spud to spud.

Again, the data is through March. We can see the falloff of spuds, rigs and permits in February and March. April and May should show a further decline in all three.

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