Tag: North Dakota

Jean Laherrere’s Bakken Update

Ron Patterson 936 Comments

Jean Laherrere sent me the below charts the other day. I had planned on posting them with more Bakken data. But my schedule has been busy so I am posting them alone.

Jean’s interpretation for ND is as follows
Bakken ultimate = 3 Gb
Non Bakken ultimate = 2.2 Gb
ND ultimate 5.2 Gb
Detail
Quite symmetrical like the EIA drilling productivity data, but in contrary to EIA/AEO2015 with a peak in 2020
  
It will be interesting to see the evolution in the next few months

Jean 1

The Hubbert Linearization puts the Bakken about half way to the end.

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Bakken Production Data and STEO Predictions

Ron Patterson 554 Comments

The Bakken Production Statistics and the ND Production Statistics with June production numbers has been published.

Bakken & ND BPD

Bakken production was up by 10,887 barrels per day to 1,152,455 BPD while all North Dakota production was up by 8,565 barrels per day to 1,211,180 BPD. Bakken production is still 11,068 bpd below their December high while all North Dakota production is still 17,240 bpd below their December high.

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Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Ron Patterson 608 Comments

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads  Freight Rail Traffic Data.

Rail Oil Carloads 3

Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. The EIA says in the first seven months of 2014 8 percent of all us crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

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Bakken by County

Ron Patterson 277 Comments

North Dakota publishes monthly ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County. This data however does not include confidential wells. But they do estimate, by county, their confidential well production here: Oil and Gas Production Report

All charts are in barrels per day and are only for the last 16 months in order to get a better and expanded view of what each county is doing.

North Dakota Expanded

First a sixteen month view of all North Dakota production. North Dakota production, in April, stood at  1,168,636 bpd. That is 17,631 bpd below their production last September, seven months previous. North Dakota production is down 59,385 bpd since the high reached in December.

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Bakken April Production Data

Ron Patterson 658 Comments

The North Dakota Industrial Commission is out with the April production Data for the Bakken and all North Dakota.

Bakken Production

Eight month of flat to down production from the Bakken.

Bakken Amplified

I have shortened the data to 16 months here to give a better picture of what is really happening. North Dakota reached an 8 month low. North Dakota, in April, was 17,631 barrels per day below their September 2014 production. The Bakken was only 11,024 below September 2014 so conventional wells seem to be dropping off pretty fast.

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