This is NOT a non-petroleum open thread, see post below for those comments.
Comments on oil and natural gas output should be in this thread, thank you.
Tag: North Dakota
US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update
From Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 US Tight oil output has increased by 975 kb/d based on US tight oil output data from the EIA.
For the entire US we only have EIA monthly output estimates through Oct 2017. Over the Dec 2016 to Oct 2017 period US output has increased by 866 kb/d and the OLS trend has a slope of 821 kb/d.
Note that the 866 kb/d increase in US output over 10 months would be a 1040 kb/d increase over a 12 month period.
Most of the increase in US output has been from increased LTO output. The forecasts by several agencies (EIA, IEA, and OPEC) of more than a 1000 kb/d increase in US output in 2018 may assume that the recently increased oil price level will lead to increased investment in the oil sector.
Much of the increase in LTO output has been in the Permian basin and several factors may slow down the recent rapid growth. Among these are limited fracking crews, inadequate pipeline capacity for natural gas, which will limit output as flaring limits are reached, and potential water shortages.
Longer term the various LTO plays will run out of space to drill more wells in the tier one areas (the so-called sweet-spots) and this will limit the rate of increase within 2 or 3 years. It is likely that the Eagle Ford is close to this point, the Bakken might reach that point by 2019, and the Permian basin perhaps by 2021.
For US C+C output, I expect about a 600+/-100 kb/d increase in 2018.
Bakken January Production Data
North Dakota has published January production data for the Bakken and for all North Dakota.
Bakken production was up 37,617 bpd to 932,817 bpd while all North Dakota’s production was up 37,972 to 980,294 bpd.
Bakken Oil Production Up Over 70,000 BPD
North Dakota just released their production numbers for the Bakken as well as for all North Dakota
The numbers are shocking. The Bakken is up 70,798 bpd to 991,722 bpd and all North Dakota was up 71,447 bpd to 1,043,207 bpd. The EIA’s drilling productivity report really missed the ball on this one.
Bakken Production Down 10 K bpd
Bakken oil production was down 10,119 barrels per day in September and all North Dakota production was down 10,353 bpd in September.
Bakken production continues to decline though I expect it to level off soon.