Light Tight Oil – Page 22 – Peak Oil Barrel

Bakken by County

06/29/201506/29/2015 Ron Patterson 277 Comments

North Dakota publishes monthly ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County. This data however does not include confidential wells. But they do estimate, by county, their confidential well production here: Oil and Gas Production Report

All charts are in barrels per day and are only for the last 16 months in order to get a better and expanded view of what each county is doing.

First a sixteen month view of all North Dakota production. North Dakota production, in April, stood at 1,168,636 bpd. That is 17,631 bpd below their production last September, seven months previous. North Dakota production is down 59,385 bpd since the high reached in December.

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Bakken April Production Data

06/12/201506/13/2015 Ron Patterson 658 Comments

The North Dakota Industrial Commission is out with the April production Data for the Bakken and all North Dakota.

Eight month of flat to down production from the Bakken.

I have shortened the data to 16 months here to give a better picture of what is really happening. North Dakota reached an 8 month low. North Dakota, in April, was 17,631 barrels per day below their September 2014 production. The Bakken was only 11,024 below September 2014 so conventional wells seem to be dropping off pretty fast.

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The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report

06/08/201506/08/2015 Ron Patterson 237 Comments

The EIA has released its latest Drilling Productivity Report. There were some interesting data presented in the report.

They say the Bakken peaked at 1,311,703 barrels per day in March and will have declined by 74,763 bpd in July.

The EIA says the Bakken will get 51,000 barrels per day in July from new wells but legacy wells will decline by 80,000 barrels per day leaving a decline of 29,000 bpd.

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World Oil Output Last 3 Years

06/03/201506/04/2015 Ron Patterson 492 Comments

The EIA publishes every possible energy stat for the USA and hardly anything for the rest of the world. Well, anything current for the rest of the world anyway. Their International Energy Statistics is already five full months behind and working on six. December 2014 is the last international oil production data we have.

Anyway during this lull in other data I decided to look at the last three years of international data, from December 2011 to December 2014. All data is in thousand barrels per day.

World C+C production was flat for most of 2012 and 2013 but in late 2013 production took off and has increased by about 3 million barrels per day above the average for 2012 and 2013. December C+C production was 79,300,000 BPD.

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World Exports versus Consumption, The ELM

05/22/201505/22/2015 Ron Patterson 336 Comments

The EIA has updated their International Energy Statistics with annual production numbers through 2014 and export data through 2012. Sometimes these stats can be confusing as they include several types of production and exports. But for production I use only “Crude plus Condensate” and for exports I used “Crude Oil Exports” which I assume includes condensate as well.

Also the export data is not exact, just close, because some importers are also exporters. For instance in 2001 the US exported 59,000 barrels per day. In 2012 the US exported 629,000 barrels per day. The exporting of condensate is allowed in the US and since the Shale boom condensate exports have increased quite dramatically because Light Tight Oil is rather top heavy with condensate.

To get exports versus consumption for exporting nations I simply subtracted their exports from their production. The difference was what they consumed. Similar data can be found on the Energy Export Databrowser.

I think the data clearly endorses Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model.

In 2012 76,160,000 barrels of C+C were produced per day. Of that 76 million barrels 42,845,000 barrels were exported while the other 33,315,000 barrels was consumed by the producing nations. That is this is oil that was never exported.

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