EIA Says Shale Continues to Decline

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has US shale oil on a steep decline. The below shale oil production charts are the EIA’s estimate of what shale production will look like through January 2016. Keep in mind this is the EIA’s estimate and not hard production numbers.

DPR Totals

The big drops here are Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara. They have the Permian still increasing in production. An expected drop of 116,000 barrels per day drop in January is very significant.

DPR Bakken

They have the Bakken in a continual decline after July. It is important to note that the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has the Bakken decline, July thrugh September, very close to what the North Dakota Industrial Commission has. So it appears that the DPR is getting better with its production estimates.

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US Oil Production by State

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is just out with production numbers, through August, for each state and offshore territories. The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is also out. This publication has US production data through September but not for individual states.

US Total C+C

The Petroleum Supply Monthly June 15 production numbers were revised down considerably this month. And you can see they had a drop of 169,000 bpd in September. I think there will likely be an even larger drop in October. At any rate US production is finally starting to drop significantly.

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Open Thread, Any Energy Related Subject

Data for the below chart is from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Daily Price Chart

Here we have a three year WTI price comparison chart. You can see that the 2014 price collapse began at almost the exact same time of the year as the 2008 price collapse. The 2008 collapse was a lot more dramatic and fell faster and slightly lower than the 2014 collapse. The 2008 collapse bottomed out around Christmas of that year and the 2014 did not pause until late January 2015. However by late October 2009 the WTI price was already in the $80 range. This time however we are still stuck below $50.

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