EIA – Page 20 – Peak Oil Barrel

Petroleum Supply Monthly & Other News

11/03/201411/03/2014 Ron Patterson 281 Comments

The EIA just released their Petroleum Supply Monthly where they give their estimates of US crude production as well as the crude production for all states and territories through August 2014.

There was not much movement from anyone in August. Here are the biggest movers:

Change
Total USA 61 kbd
Texas 46 kbd
GOM 21 kbd
North Dakota 18 kbd
Oklahoma -6 kbd
Colorado -9 kbd
Alaska -24 kbd

The data is in kbd with the last data point August 2014.

I have started the data in January 2009 in order to get a better picture of what is really happening.

The above chart is the combined production of both GOM and Pacific offshore.

The EIA is predicting Offshore production to reach 2 million barrels per day by 2016, I really don’t think it is going to make it. They are counting on a lot of new offshore fields that are coming on line to bring it up to that level. While that is happening, what they have underestimated is the very high decline rate of these deep water fields.
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AEO 2015 Preliminary Report

10/30/201410/30/2014 Ron Patterson 311 Comments

The EIA published, last month, AEO2015 Preliminary Oil & Natural Gas
Production & Price Results. And just below the title they wrote:
DRAFT – DO NOT CITE
But I am not citing anything, just informing you of what they said. 😉 What they mean however is that they reserve the right to change their mind before the report comes out early net year. And I can certainly understand that. All Oil data is in million barrels per day.

They have lower 48 production hitting a slowly increasing plateau in 2016 and peaking at just under 8.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

They have US Tight Oil production following pretty much the same profile, hitting a plateau in 2016 at about 5.5 million barrels per day and holding flat until starting a very slow decline in 2030.

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Post Carbon Institute’s LTO Reality Check

10/27/201410/28/2014 Ron Patterson 272 Comments

The Post Carbon Institute has just released a critique of the EIA’s Light Tight Oil projections. It is titled DRILLING DEEPER. The report is highly critical of the EIA’s projections and should be read by everyone interested in Peak Oil.

All data on all charts is in million barrels per day unless otherwise specified.

First a look at the EIA oil projections for US production from all sources. They expect offshore to increase to 2 million barrels per day by 2016, an increase of almost 600,000 bpd from current production. Also note that the EIA has US almost peaking in 2016 and increasing only slightly until the peak in 2019.

The EIA has several projections, covering all bases. However the reference, or most likely, will be the only one covered in this post.
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The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook

10/07/201410/07/2014 Ron Patterson 175 Comments

The EIA just came out with their SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK. The non-OPEC data is liquids. The EIA counts everything, all biofuels, NGLs and refinery process gain in their “Total Liquids” category.

The data below, unless otherwise specified, is in million barrels per day. The last recorded data point is September 2014 and the projection is through December 2015.

The EIA is expecting non-OPEC total liquids to be up 1.17 million barrels per day over the next 15 months, October 2014 through December 2015.

The EIA is projecting US Total Liquids to be up 1.44 million barrels per day over the next 15 months. That means they are expecting the rest of non-OPEC to be down 270 thousand barrels per day December 2015.
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The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report

09/08/201409/08/2014 Ron Patterson 168 Comments

The Eia’s latest Drilling Productivity Report is out. However they have only updated the PDF file. The spreadsheets have not been updated and still have last month’s data. But I will give you what the PDF file shows and perhaps add some charts tomorrow if they get around to updating the Excel spreadsheets.

The EIA says Bakken new wells will produce 100,000 bpd in October but all the old wells will decline by 73,000 bpd and leave a net increase of 27,000 bpd. If these numbers are correct and September production was 1,152,000 bpd then that means the monthly decline rate is 6.33%.

The EIA says Eagle Ford new wells will produce 154,000 bpd in October but all the old wells will decline by 123,000 bpd and leave a net increase of 31,000 bpd. If these numbers are correct and September production was 1,551,000 bpd then that means the monthly decline rate is 7.93%.
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