AEO 2015 Preliminary Report

The EIA published, last month, AEO2015 Preliminary Oil & Natural Gas
Production & Price Results
. And just below the title they wrote:

                                    DRAFT – DO NOT CITE
But I am not citing anything, just informing you of what they said. 😉 What they mean however is that they reserve the right to change their mind before the report comes out early net year. And I can certainly understand that. All Oil data is in million barrels per day.

AEO 2015 1

They have lower 48 production hitting a slowly increasing plateau in 2016 and peaking at just under 8.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

AEO 2015 2

They have US Tight Oil production following pretty much the same profile, hitting a plateau in 2016 at about 5.5 million barrels per day and holding flat until starting a very slow decline in 2030.

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Post Carbon Institute’s LTO Reality Check

The Post Carbon Institute has just released a critique of the EIA’s Light Tight Oil projections. It is titled DRILLING DEEPER. The report is highly critical of the EIA’s projections and should be read by everyone interested in Peak Oil.

All data on all charts is in million barrels per day unless otherwise specified.

EIA Oil Projection

 First a look at the EIA oil projections for US production from all sources. They expect offshore to increase to 2 million barrels per day by 2016, an increase of almost 600,000 bpd from current production. Also note that the EIA has US almost peaking in 2016 and increasing only slightly until the peak in 2019.

EIA LTO Hi Lo Projection

The EIA has several projections, covering all bases. However the reference, or most likely, will be the only one covered in this post.
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The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook

The EIA just came out with their SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK. The non-OPEC data is  liquids. The EIA counts everything, all biofuels, NGLs and refinery process gain in their “Total Liquids” category.

The data below, unless otherwise specified, is in million barrels per day. The last recorded data point is September 2014 and the projection is through December 2015.

Non-OPEC Liquids Projected

The EIA is expecting non-OPEC total liquids to be up 1.17 million barrels per day over the next 15 months, October 2014 through December 2015.

USA STOE

The EIA is projecting US Total Liquids to be up 1.44 million barrels per day over the next 15 months. That means they are expecting the rest of non-OPEC to be down 270 thousand barrels per day December 2015.
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The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report

The Eia’s latest Drilling Productivity Report is out. However they have only updated the PDF file. The spreadsheets have not been updated and still have last month’s data. But I will give you what the PDF file shows and perhaps add some charts tomorrow if they get around to updating the Excel spreadsheets.

DPR 1

The EIA says Bakken new wells will produce 100,000 bpd in October but all the old wells will decline by 73,000 bpd and leave a net increase of 27,000 bpd. If these numbers are correct and September production was 1,152,000 bpd then that means the monthly decline rate is 6.33%.

DPR 2

The EIA says Eagle Ford new wells will produce 154,000 bpd in October but all the old wells will decline by 123,000 bpd and leave a net increase of 31,000 bpd. If these numbers are correct and September production was 1,551,000 bpd then that means the monthly decline rate is 7.93%.
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Bakken Production Data for June + EIA Data

The Bakken and North Dakota production numbers are in for June. There was a big jump in oil production in June. The Bakken was up 53,162 barrels per day to 1,028,352 bpd. All North Dakota was up 52,148 bpd to 1,092,617 meaning the area outside the Bakken was down about 1,000 bpd.

Bakken Barrels Per Day

From the Director’s Cut:

May Sweet Crude Price = $88.31/barrel
June Sweet Crude Price = $90.03/barrel
July Sweet Crude Price = $86.20/barrel
Today’s Sweet Crude Price = $79.50/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

The drilling rig count was up one from May to June, and up two more from June to July.
The number of well completions increased as weather impacts eased in June with
significant rainfall on 2 days near Minot and 1 day near Dickinson. However, there were
still 6 to 8 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work).

At the end of June there were about 585 wells waiting on completion services, a decrease
of 25.

For the first time in a couple of years he did not give us the exact number of new well completions, only that they increased. Last month there were 227 well completions and production was up 37,000 bpd so we can assume there were aroun 235 to 240 new well completions in June.

Well completions should not be confused with “additional wells producing. That is and entirely different figure.

ND New Wells

Additional wells producing is new wells completed, plus previously shut down wells brought back on, line minus wells shut down. Sometimes this number goes negative as it did in December of 2013. That month “Wells Producing” dropped by 52 even though there were 119 new wells completed. All data is barrels per day.

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