The EIA just released its Drilling Productivity Report for April. In this report they have post what they expect the shale production data will look like through May 2015.
The EIA is expecting a rounded top for shale production. They are expecting a big drop of total shale production in May to the tune of 56,673 barrels per day. In April they had total shale production down 2,098 bpd.
The EIA has Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara down but still has the Permian up by 10,647 bpd.
The Texas Rail Road Commission has released its latest stats with production numbers through January. There is always a delay in these numbers and that is why you see the production graph lines seem to droop toward the recent months. Because of this I post six months data so the data can be compared in order to gain a better insight into which way production is heading.
All Texas oil and gas data is through January. The Oil data is in barrels per day and the gas data is in MCF.
Texas condensate will likely show a small gain when the data is finally in. Either way it will not be enough to make much difference in the final C+C January production.
I believe Texas crude only will be down in January. This shows a huge decline from the December incomplete data. The EIA data is through December only.
This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne
Originally posted at peak oil climate and sustainability
Some changes have been made to this post see after the Excel File link. Below figure 10.
The Oil Shock Model was first developed by Webhubbletelescope and is explained in detail in The Oil Conundrum. (Note that this free book takes a while to download as it is over 700 pages long.) The Oil Shock Model with Dispersive Discovery is covered in the first half of the book. I have made a few simplifications to the original model in an attempt to make it easier to understand.
Figure 1
In a previous post I explained convolution and its use in modelling oil output in the Bakken/Three Forks and Eagle Ford LTO (light tight oil) fields. Briefly, an average hyperbolic well profile (monthly oil output) is combined with the number of new wells completed each month by means of convolution to find a model of LTO output.
The weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count for North America and the International monthly rig count is out. In the charts below the monthly data is through February 2015 and the weekly data is as of March 6th.
World Rig Count, counting oil, gas and miscellaneous rigs are down 684 rigs over the last three months. The annual spikes you here are caused by Canada.
Removing the seasonal Canadian spikes gives you a better picture of what is happening to the world rig count.
Baker Hughes publishes a weekly oil and gas rig count by producing basin. I have created charts of all the most productive basins in order that we can see where oil and gas rigs are increasing or decreasing. Their historic rig count, by basin, goes back 4 years.
It needs to be noted that Baker Hugs does not count rigs that are not actively drilling. Rigs that are “Moving In, Rigging Up” are not counted in the Baker Hughes count though they are counted by some others including the North Dakota Industrial Commission.
All rig counts are of Friday, February 27, 2015.
But first, total US weekly rig count. The oil rig count stands at 986, down 623 from a high of 1,609 in October. The gas rig count stands at 280, down 656 rigs from the high of 935 in October of 2011. However this data base goes back only 4 years. The all time high for gas rigs was 1,606 in September of 2008. The 1,609 oil rig count in October 2014 was an all time high for oil rigs. That record is valid only back to the days when Baker Hughes began separate stats for oil and gas rigs however.
Eagle Ford oil rigs currently stand at 136, down from a high 214 in April 2014. Gas rig count is 21, down from 95 in October 2011.