Tag: Eagle Ford

Texas RRC March Production Data

Ron Patterson 569 Comments

The Texas RRC is out with their latest Oil and Gas Production Data. Looks like oil production has leveled out with March production pretty much level with February. All RRC data is trough March 015.

Texas Crude Only

I always show the last 6 months or the RRC data in order to get a pretty good indication of which way data production is moving. From the data you can see that December was a very good month but January was just awful. February was a lot better and March was about the same as February.

Dean 1

The chart above was created by Dean Fantazzini, PhD, of the Moscow School of Economics. He has developed an algorithm which predicts what the data will reflect after the final data has come in. His data suggests that Texas crude has plateaued.

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Peak Russia + Peak USA means Peak World

Ron Patterson 368 Comments

Since around 2005 many countries have increased their oil production but more have decreased. But the combined production of the United States and Russia have kept the world on a slight uptrend since that time.

World since 2000

World oil production jumped in 2011, hardly moved at all in 2013 but it was up by more than  1.5 million barrels per day in 2014. And after such a huge gain everyone and their brother were singing “peak oil is dead’. But if you scroll down through the 37 major world oil producers it becomes obvious that a majority of nations have peaked and most of them are in steep decline.

The above chart is EIA data however the next four charts below are JODI data with the last data point February 2015. The data on all charts is thousand barrels per day.

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Bakken, What Is The Data Telling Us?

Ron Patterson 367 Comments

North Dakota publishes, every month, a Monthly Statistical Update from which we can gather a wealth of data if we dig deep enough. They publish the number of spuds, that in new wells started, each month, along with the average number of rigs that month. From this we can glean the average number of days each rigs spends on each well.

Spuds per Rig

The last data point is March, 2015. Through 2011 a rig could drill about .75 wells per month, or about 40 days spud to spud. Today that figure is about 1.14 wells per month or about 26.3 days spud to spud.

Permits & Spuds

Again, the data is through March. We can see the falloff of spuds, rigs and permits in February and March. April and May should show a further decline in all three.

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Eagle Ford, Permian Basin, and Bakken and Eagle Ford Scenarios

D Coyne 335 Comments

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne

Increased oil output in the US has kept World oil output from declining over the past few years and a major question is how long this can continue. Poor estimates by both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) for Texas state wide crude plus condensate (C+C) output make it difficult to predict when a sustained decline in US output will begin.

 About 80 to 85% of Texas (TX) C+C output is from the Permian basin and the Eagle Ford play, so estimating output from these two formations is crucial. I have used data from the production data query (PDQ) at the RRC to find the percentage of TX C+C output from the Permian (about 44% in Feb 2015) and Eagle Ford plays (40% in Feb 2015).

Dean’s estimates of Texas C+C output are excellent in my opinion and are close to EIA estimates through August 2014. I used EIA data for TX C+C output through August 2014 and Dean’s best estimate from Sept 2014 to Feb 2015. By multiplying the % of C+C output from the RRC data with the combined EIA and Dean estimate, I was able to estimate Eagle Ford and Permian output. The chart below shows this output in kb/d.

  
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