The EIA STEO was published recently, most estimates for Petroleum liquids and crude oil output have been revised lower compared to the estimates in September’s report.
The EIA expects World petroleum liquids output to increase significantly more in 2025 than it did in 2024 despite its forecast for falling oil prices in 2025. In 2024 World liquids output is forecast to increase by 500 kb/d, but in 2025 the increase is expected to be 4 times larger at 2000 kb/d. Seems doubtful that the increase will be that large if the oil price forecast of $78/bo (nominal dollars) for Brent is correct.
This forecast for OPEC+ output seems optimistic for the low crude oil prices that the EIA expects in 2025.
The forecast for US L48 onshore output has been revised lower than last month’s forecast, but the higher output growth in 2H2025 seems optimistic based on the oil price forecast.
The non-Permian forecast for L48 onshore output looks optimistic especially for the second half of 2024.
The EIA forecast for World production and consumption suggests a stock draw from 2024Q1 to 2025Q1, it is not clear that the estimates and forecasts are accurate given the relatively low oil price level for most of 2024 and expected lower prices in 2025. I think the consumption estimates in 2024 are too high and the production forecast for 2025 is also likely too high.
The zero scaled charts above show the relative output shares for OPEC and non-OPEC and the consumption shares for OECD and non-OECD nations. Much of the forecast increase in output comes from non-OPEC producers and again it is unclear why output would increase more strongly in late 2024 and 2025 compared to the previous 2 years when oil prices are expected to be lower. Liquids consumption is expected to continue its slow but steady growth, but this misses the increasing share of plugin vehicles which may lead to slower consumption growth in the future.
OECD commercial inventories are expected to remain near the bottom of the 2019-2023 average.
Most US L48 onshore C+C output growth since 2022 has come from the Permian basin and this is expected to continue through 2025, but at lower rates of growth in 2024 and 2025 compared to the previous 2 years.
From Jan 2022 to Dec 2023 there was a small increase in non-Permian L48 onshore C+C output in the US, after 2023 output for non-Permian is relatively flat. The slowdown in overall US L48 onshore output is apparent in the chart above.
The chart above gives a more precise indication of the slower output growth in 2024-2025 compared to 2022-2023, roughly 2.43 times slower growth in the later period. Much of the increase in 2024 and 2025 occurs from Jan 2024 to July 2025, for the August 2024 to December 2025 period US L48 onshore C+C output only grows at about 183 kb/d per year as shown in chart below.
Another great piece by Mr Shellman, linked below.
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/breaking-even-is-breaking-bad
Texas and New Mexico output using EIA data from July 2022 to Juy 2024 (25 months).
If we consider Permian and Eagle Ford region output (which covers most of Texas and New Mexico’s C plus C output) and the forecast by the EIA from August 2024 to December 2025, along with EIA estimates from December 2023 to July 2024, we find output increases annually by 227 kb/d over the December 2023 to December 2025 period for these two regions (Permian and Eagle Ford).