Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please. Thank you.
26 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum June 4, 2025”
So much for peak coal.
CHINA’S COAL POWER PLANT APPROVALS REBOUND
“After last year’s first annual decline in coal power plant approvals since 2021, the Chinese pipeline of newly-approved coal-fired electricity generation rebounded in early 2025, Greenpeace East Asia said in new research on Thursday. China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025, Greenpeace’s review of official documents showed. This pace of coal-fired electricity approvals already exceeds the 10 GW China approved in the first half of 2024.”
Meanwhile, at the end first quarter 2025, total capacity of wind and solar installations at 1.483Peta Watt, already higher than coal fired installations at 1.451Peta Watt.
Total wind and solar electricity now at 22.5% or 4.3% higher than last year; and non FF electricity at 39.8% or 4.8% higher than last year.
“Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”
Idealistic thoughts but I am reminded that the Nazis came up with some incredible weapons in that horrendous 12 years. I think their greed and arrogant ideology prevented them from achieving their objectives but it wasn’t second class scientists or generals.
Likewise Stalin accomplished a lot for the USSR if you ignore the human suffering.
I think Mao did a pretty good job of bringing China into the 20th century, that is for the people who survived his murderous ways.
Trump is different. Unlike Hitler, Stalin and Mao he isn’t smart enough to discern talent from servility.
I think the problem never seems to be competence, it’s values. The dictators just surround themselves with terrible people. Often what decent people call terrible results are the objective.
Totally agree with that view. Furthermore i’d add Hitler and Stalin were born into poverty and abuse. Both experience extreme hardships. I’d say both were above average intelligence and unique though goes without saying they caused an enormous amount of suffering.
Trump was born into a wealthy family. He didnt experience hardships anywhere near these men. I’d also make a conjecture that he is below average intelligence.
the Nazis came up with some incredible weapons in that horrendous 12 years.
Not really, they were dumb as dirt. But the highjacked what was arguably the world’s leading scientific power at the time.
That is not true. During the Nuremberg Trials, U.S. military psychologist Gustave Gilbert administered IQ tests to the Nazi leaders on trial. The results showed that all of them had above-average intelligence, with some scoring significantly high.
And also if they were dumb why were the Russians and Americans scrambling to get their scientists at the end of ww2 ?
Certainly Speer, Goebbels (PhD), and probably Goering the junky were of high intelligence. Having a high IQ des not necessariy make people nice.
Quite obviously, Werner von Braun, Rommel, and others of that ilk were well bove average intelligence.
History is littered with the names of “great” men and women whose indisputable intelligence was not matched by high personal moral and ethical codes.
Having a high IQ des not necessariy make people nice.
Of course. Intelligent evil is much more potent and dangerous than dumb evil.
Dictatorships inevitably fail because they run out of ideas. Democracy’s strength is its ability to adapt by bringing in new ideas. As a rule of thumb, any country ruled by the same person for 20 years is in trouble. No matter how good or smart he was twenty years ago, he’s stuck in a rut by now.
That is why democracy is about much more than just elections. Free press, free markets and anti-corruption/government openness are just as important. You can see it in America now, where Trump isn’t just a threat to elections, he constantly attacks the press and uses his cryptocurrency to sell pardons and other favors.
Most dictators just end up trying to steal more money when they get bored from being at the top. It’s really weird. My favorite example is Spain’s king Juan Carlos, savior of democracy back in the day, taking bribes from the Saudis. WTF does the king of Spain need more money for? Makes no sense. But the pattern repeats itself over and over.
Musk already changed his mind about Dragon. Some random dude on X told him to calm down and he obeyed. They’re like little kids.
Meanwhile he’s calling for Trump’s impeachment. Musk wants Vance, who is Peter Thiel’s creature, to replace Trump.
Peter Thiel financed Paypal and facebook and has led Silicon Valley’s charge into the extreme right. The theory is that the are so rich they must be much smarter than the rest of us. They want to shut down democracy for the good of mankind, since only they are smart enough to know the way forward.
The richest half has saved trillions in tax over the last 50 years. Some have calculated that the tax cuts are equivalent to the debt increase.
Some economists in the pay of the elite say that the debt does not matter. Really?
The trillion dollars of debt interest comes out of tax money that would have gone into schools, police, roads etc. it is the poor who pay the price of poor schools and lack of police and social care.
Millionaires are not affected, in fact they now have far more money for private schools and hospitals.
Scum economists told us in the 1980s and today that if you tax the rich less they pay more tax. Exactly what the Rich and powerful wanted us to believe. Now everyone is saddled with massive government debt that falls upon the majority who rely on state schools and police. Etc. more taxes less and less services.
Who owns the debt? The rich!!
One day riots will come that will not stop until those that have created this unjust system are removed.
Another important factor in our financial dilemma is that the reduced taxes incentivize the wealthy to support the politicians that are so generous to them. It creates a vicious cycle that today has the top 1% owning and earning a greater share of the nation’s wealth than the bottom half while taking away any good that the government has done both at home and abroad. And the Trump regime is almost a caricature of that distortion. He longs for the “good ole days” of the robber barons.
This is what ChatGPT has to say about the total energy efficiency:
To assess the energy efficiency of the sodium-air fuel cell described in the paper — including the energy cost of producing the consumable sodium metal — we need to compare:
* **Energy input**: The energy required to produce 1 kg of sodium metal.
* **Energy output**: The energy delivered per 1 kg of sodium when consumed in the fuel cell.
—
⚙️ Step 1: **Energy Output (Useful Work)**
From the paper:
* Theoretical energy density of sodium: **3.63 kWh/kg**
* Practical energy delivered (including system inefficiencies): **2.1 kWh/kg**
* Operating efficiency: **\~58%**
So, from 1 kg of sodium, we can extract approximately **2.1 kWh of usable electricity**.
—
⚡ Step 2: **Energy Input (Production of Sodium Metal)**
Sodium is typically produced via electrolysis in a Downs cell:
* **Thermodynamic minimum energy**: \~4.0 V per mole (per Faraday’s law)
* **Practical operating voltage**: \~5.5–7.0 V
* **Faradaic efficiency**: \~90%
Energy required to produce 1 mole (23 g) of Na =
E = \frac{(Voltage \times Charge)}{\text{Efficiency}} = \frac{(6 \, V \times 96485 \, C)}{0.90} = 643,233 \, J
This means for every unit of energy used to produce sodium, you recover about 27% as electricity via the fuel cell. This aligns with typical thermochemical-to-electrical conversion systems.
🧮 Summary Table
| Component | Value |
| ——————————– | ———— |
| Theoretical Na energy (OCV) | 3.63 kWh/kg |
| Practical delivered energy | 2.1 kWh/kg |
| Energy to produce Na | \~7.8 kWh/kg |
| Round-trip energy efficiency | \~27% |
| Faradaic efficiency (production) | \~90% |
| Fuel cell electrical efficiency | \~58% |
🧩 Notes
* **Economic viability** improves with co-product utilization (e.g., chlorine, NaOH).
* **Environmental impact** is offset by CO₂ capture via NaOH discharge products.
* **Efficiency can improve** with better voltage matching and heat integration.
Trump is pushing for Tip income to be tax-free.
If it gets signed into law then expect many wealthy system players like law firms to shift toward tip billings/income.
Trump knows a lot about this subject-
How does a bride differ from a tip?
A tip is paid after a service,
A Bride is paid before a service is rendered.
So much for peak coal.
CHINA’S COAL POWER PLANT APPROVALS REBOUND
“After last year’s first annual decline in coal power plant approvals since 2021, the Chinese pipeline of newly-approved coal-fired electricity generation rebounded in early 2025, Greenpeace East Asia said in new research on Thursday. China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025, Greenpeace’s review of official documents showed. This pace of coal-fired electricity approvals already exceeds the 10 GW China approved in the first half of 2024.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Coal-Power-Plant-Approvals-Rebound.html
Meanwhile, at the end first quarter 2025, total capacity of wind and solar installations at 1.483Peta Watt, already higher than coal fired installations at 1.451Peta Watt.
Total wind and solar electricity now at 22.5% or 4.3% higher than last year; and non FF electricity at 39.8% or 4.8% higher than last year.
“Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”
Idealistic thoughts but I am reminded that the Nazis came up with some incredible weapons in that horrendous 12 years. I think their greed and arrogant ideology prevented them from achieving their objectives but it wasn’t second class scientists or generals.
Likewise Stalin accomplished a lot for the USSR if you ignore the human suffering.
I think Mao did a pretty good job of bringing China into the 20th century, that is for the people who survived his murderous ways.
Trump is different. Unlike Hitler, Stalin and Mao he isn’t smart enough to discern talent from servility.
I think the problem never seems to be competence, it’s values. The dictators just surround themselves with terrible people. Often what decent people call terrible results are the objective.
JJHMAN,
Totally agree with that view. Furthermore i’d add Hitler and Stalin were born into poverty and abuse. Both experience extreme hardships. I’d say both were above average intelligence and unique though goes without saying they caused an enormous amount of suffering.
Trump was born into a wealthy family. He didnt experience hardships anywhere near these men. I’d also make a conjecture that he is below average intelligence.
the Nazis came up with some incredible weapons in that horrendous 12 years.
Not really, they were dumb as dirt. But the highjacked what was arguably the world’s leading scientific power at the time.
Alim,
That is not true. During the Nuremberg Trials, U.S. military psychologist Gustave Gilbert administered IQ tests to the Nazi leaders on trial. The results showed that all of them had above-average intelligence, with some scoring significantly high.
And also if they were dumb why were the Russians and Americans scrambling to get their scientists at the end of ww2 ?
Certainly Speer, Goebbels (PhD), and probably Goering the junky were of high intelligence. Having a high IQ des not necessariy make people nice.
Quite obviously, Werner von Braun, Rommel, and others of that ilk were well bove average intelligence.
History is littered with the names of “great” men and women whose indisputable intelligence was not matched by high personal moral and ethical codes.
Having a high IQ des not necessariy make people nice.
Of course. Intelligent evil is much more potent and dangerous than dumb evil.
Dictatorships inevitably fail because they run out of ideas. Democracy’s strength is its ability to adapt by bringing in new ideas. As a rule of thumb, any country ruled by the same person for 20 years is in trouble. No matter how good or smart he was twenty years ago, he’s stuck in a rut by now.
That is why democracy is about much more than just elections. Free press, free markets and anti-corruption/government openness are just as important. You can see it in America now, where Trump isn’t just a threat to elections, he constantly attacks the press and uses his cryptocurrency to sell pardons and other favors.
Most dictators just end up trying to steal more money when they get bored from being at the top. It’s really weird. My favorite example is Spain’s king Juan Carlos, savior of democracy back in the day, taking bribes from the Saudis. WTF does the king of Spain need more money for? Makes no sense. But the pattern repeats itself over and over.
Republicans say
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14784545/elon-musk-donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein.html
Trump and Elon in the Epstein files.
Elon attacks Trump as a P**do.
If Elon knew this about Trump, why did he support him??
Tesla shares down 18 %
Trump says he ‘ll cancel all government contracts with Musk companies, Musk decommissions the Dragon, apparently immediately.
As if we needed any more proof that these two are completely transactional. Neither moves a muscle unless personal gain is afoot.
Musk already changed his mind about Dragon. Some random dude on X told him to calm down and he obeyed. They’re like little kids.
Meanwhile he’s calling for Trump’s impeachment. Musk wants Vance, who is Peter Thiel’s creature, to replace Trump.
Peter Thiel financed Paypal and facebook and has led Silicon Valley’s charge into the extreme right. The theory is that the are so rich they must be much smarter than the rest of us. They want to shut down democracy for the good of mankind, since only they are smart enough to know the way forward.
Rumor says the real cause of breakup is after Trump called Xi — they agreed to cancel EV subsidies in both countries.
Now that musk has shot his bolt, who are the cornucopians attaching themselves to? Who’s the new Messiah?
I am sure they will find some other tool to worship.
I thought everyone knows there never has been and never will be a “Messiah”
Keep dreaming if harboring the delusion makes you feel good, I suppose.
Haven’t been around here in a long while.
Are Ron Patterson and Old Farmer Mac (OFM I think was the nym he went by) still around?
Did one or both of them pass away?
I felt I learned a great deal from them both over the years.
Could anyone say?
Thanks!
OFM hasn’t chimed in for a few months, and less and less for about the last 9 months.
Ron occasionally chimes in.
I tried to get in touch with Old Farmer Mac in January, but there was no response to my email.
Ron just commented today, but he now has other interests so he does not comment often.
OFM’s most recent post was April 9, 2025 at link below
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-april-3-2025/#comment-787703
U.S. Debt and tax
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
If U.S. debt in 1979 was the equivalent to $3 trillion today. Why has it increased so much.
Here is a clue.
https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/whole-ball-of-tax-historical-income-tax-rates
The richest half has saved trillions in tax over the last 50 years. Some have calculated that the tax cuts are equivalent to the debt increase.
Some economists in the pay of the elite say that the debt does not matter. Really?
The trillion dollars of debt interest comes out of tax money that would have gone into schools, police, roads etc. it is the poor who pay the price of poor schools and lack of police and social care.
Millionaires are not affected, in fact they now have far more money for private schools and hospitals.
https://wir2022.wid.world/chapter-4/#:~:text=By%201970%2C%20the%20top%201,both%20sides%20of%20the%20Atlantic.
Scum economists told us in the 1980s and today that if you tax the rich less they pay more tax. Exactly what the Rich and powerful wanted us to believe. Now everyone is saddled with massive government debt that falls upon the majority who rely on state schools and police. Etc. more taxes less and less services.
Who owns the debt? The rich!!
One day riots will come that will not stop until those that have created this unjust system are removed.
Another important factor in our financial dilemma is that the reduced taxes incentivize the wealthy to support the politicians that are so generous to them. It creates a vicious cycle that today has the top 1% owning and earning a greater share of the nation’s wealth than the bottom half while taking away any good that the government has done both at home and abroad. And the Trump regime is almost a caricature of that distortion. He longs for the “good ole days” of the robber barons.
Global Food Price Index falls in May on lower cereal, vegetable oil and sugar prices…
A new(?) energy dense ( 1kwh/kg) energy storage:
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(25)00143-6?_returnURL=https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2542435125001436?showall=true
This is what ChatGPT has to say about the total energy efficiency:
To assess the energy efficiency of the sodium-air fuel cell described in the paper — including the energy cost of producing the consumable sodium metal — we need to compare:
* **Energy input**: The energy required to produce 1 kg of sodium metal.
* **Energy output**: The energy delivered per 1 kg of sodium when consumed in the fuel cell.
—
⚙️ Step 1: **Energy Output (Useful Work)**
From the paper:
* Theoretical energy density of sodium: **3.63 kWh/kg**
* Practical energy delivered (including system inefficiencies): **2.1 kWh/kg**
* Operating efficiency: **\~58%**
So, from 1 kg of sodium, we can extract approximately **2.1 kWh of usable electricity**.
—
⚡ Step 2: **Energy Input (Production of Sodium Metal)**
Sodium is typically produced via electrolysis in a Downs cell:
* **Thermodynamic minimum energy**: \~4.0 V per mole (per Faraday’s law)
* **Practical operating voltage**: \~5.5–7.0 V
* **Faradaic efficiency**: \~90%
Energy required to produce 1 mole (23 g) of Na =
E = \frac{(Voltage \times Charge)}{\text{Efficiency}} = \frac{(6 \, V \times 96485 \, C)}{0.90} = 643,233 \, J
Convert to per kg:
{Energy per kg-Na} = \frac{643,233 \, J}{0.023 \, {kg}} \approx 27.97 \, {MJ/kg} = 7.77 \, {kWh/kg}
🔁 **Overall Energy Efficiency (Energy Out / Energy In)**
{Efficiency} = \frac{2.1 \, \{kWh}}{7.77 \, \{kWh}} \approx 27\%
This means for every unit of energy used to produce sodium, you recover about 27% as electricity via the fuel cell. This aligns with typical thermochemical-to-electrical conversion systems.
🧮 Summary Table
| Component | Value |
| ——————————– | ———— |
| Theoretical Na energy (OCV) | 3.63 kWh/kg |
| Practical delivered energy | 2.1 kWh/kg |
| Energy to produce Na | \~7.8 kWh/kg |
| Round-trip energy efficiency | \~27% |
| Faradaic efficiency (production) | \~90% |
| Fuel cell electrical efficiency | \~58% |
🧩 Notes
* **Economic viability** improves with co-product utilization (e.g., chlorine, NaOH).
* **Environmental impact** is offset by CO₂ capture via NaOH discharge products.
* **Efficiency can improve** with better voltage matching and heat integration.
Rgds
WP
edit – cleanup formatting
Trump is pushing for Tip income to be tax-free.
If it gets signed into law then expect many wealthy system players like law firms to shift toward tip billings/income.
Trump knows a lot about this subject-
How does a bride differ from a tip?
A tip is paid after a service,
A Bride is paid before a service is rendered.