Comments not related to oil or natural gas production in this thread please, thanks.
10 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, January 3, 2025”
The FAO [Global] Food Price Index* (FFPI) stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5 percent) from its November level, as decreases in the price indices for sugar, dairy products, vegetable oils and cereals more than offset increases in meat…
For 2024 as a whole, the index recorded 122.0 points, 2.6 points (2.1 percent) lower than the average value in 2023.
Did I read EV’s were 51% of sales in China for 2024? 31 millions cars vs 18 for North America?
China is 5 years ahead of EV sales goals.
Does IEA have numbers?
I do not think the whole space when it comes to computer technology (chips) is fully understood, and its impact on technology to all aspects of energy extrapolation, refining and utility really.
It is a little bit an admiration post of how it is possible to expand the expectations even beyond the expectations generated by Murphy’s law when it comes to computer chips. How technology can evolve (silicon purity, laser, chemicals) and of course fossil fuels are involved in the process. It involves everything getting smaller at laser point, with lesser volt getting through at a most likely copper or silver linkage. A win, win uptil a certian point. So you get improved performance at less material throughput.
It is almost too good to be true. But yet what I read was that major companies circumvented material obstacles, and made beoynd expected progress the last 10 years.
Now, the semicondutor industry must also aknowledge the sustainabily battle. (IBM has stated this for a start). Better technology should be balanced against carbon footprint as it stands. “We should explore all elements” one Japanese executive said, to explore all options for progress”. In my mind, if we can reduce the carbon footprint while retaining much of the technology advantages; the performance is good enough or even less is ok probably, at least for the private market. It is not a very big problem in the immediate future. But how to produce the same enormous amount of chips should be on the sustainbilty radar.
It is very relevant, probably someone like Alimbiquated could probably add something. I am am guilty of being 50+, but not by much; it is important to get input into this topic for older people as well. No sources? Chat gpt or gemini. I prefer well formulated opinions, and I hope others do as well.
The main footprint is the power consumption of server farms, not so much chip production. The industry’s solution seems to be doubling down on energy production.
Energy consumption per calculation keeps falling, but the volume is increasing faster.
A lot of this has to do with the modern approach to AI. After decades of trying and failing to build a smart machine, they’ve just started throwing hardware at the problem. Some of these new models have trillions of parameters. They all need to be calculated before the thing works. The training algorithms are relatively well understood, but nobody really knows what the machine learns. If anyone did, they would program it.
And generally, software is getting less and less efficient. Good programmers are expensive, chips and the energy to run crappy software are cheap. Back in the nineties we used to say “Intel giveth, and Microsoft taketh away”.
“Mike Johnson is now celebrating his election as Speaker of the House with a speech, vowing to outlaw all restrictions on oil, gas, coal; eliminate all tax incentives for EV vehicles; promote LNG; cut regulations across the govt.; shut down climate research.”
While Rep. Thomas Massie, the lone GOP holdout voting against Mike Johnson, has essentially become a self-reliant energy advocate trying to live off-the-grid as much as possible. That’s the scary part. He knows too much about the reality of the situation.
As Leaders of a Nation with vast natural resources that God has blessed us with it is our duty to restore America’s energy dominance and that’s what we’ll do. We have to apply Common Sense. We have to stop the attacks (tax?) on liquified Natural Gas. Pass legislation to eliminate the green New Deal – that funding. We’re going to expedite new drilling permits. We’re going to save the jobs of our auto manufacturers and we’re going to do that by ending the ridiculous EV mandates. And as heirs to the American Revolution and the descendants of patriots who defy tyranny in the coming months, we are going to pass legislation to roll back the totalitarian fourth branch of government known as the administrative state.
Couldn’t find where he said he will shut down climate research, but it goes without saying they will try.
The FAO [Global] Food Price Index* (FFPI) stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5 percent) from its November level, as decreases in the price indices for sugar, dairy products, vegetable oils and cereals more than offset increases in meat…
For 2024 as a whole, the index recorded 122.0 points, 2.6 points (2.1 percent) lower than the average value in 2023.
What’s driving decreasing gasoline consumption in China?
EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63764
Did I read EV’s were 51% of sales in China for 2024? 31 millions cars vs 18 for North America?
China is 5 years ahead of EV sales goals.
Does IEA have numbers?
“Although they’re happy to use guns as a wedge issue to bring in male voters who are insecure about their own masculinity.”
Seems to be working
I do not think the whole space when it comes to computer technology (chips) is fully understood, and its impact on technology to all aspects of energy extrapolation, refining and utility really.
It is a little bit an admiration post of how it is possible to expand the expectations even beyond the expectations generated by Murphy’s law when it comes to computer chips. How technology can evolve (silicon purity, laser, chemicals) and of course fossil fuels are involved in the process. It involves everything getting smaller at laser point, with lesser volt getting through at a most likely copper or silver linkage. A win, win uptil a certian point. So you get improved performance at less material throughput.
It is almost too good to be true. But yet what I read was that major companies circumvented material obstacles, and made beoynd expected progress the last 10 years.
Now, the semicondutor industry must also aknowledge the sustainabily battle. (IBM has stated this for a start). Better technology should be balanced against carbon footprint as it stands. “We should explore all elements” one Japanese executive said, to explore all options for progress”. In my mind, if we can reduce the carbon footprint while retaining much of the technology advantages; the performance is good enough or even less is ok probably, at least for the private market. It is not a very big problem in the immediate future. But how to produce the same enormous amount of chips should be on the sustainbilty radar.
It is very relevant, probably someone like Alimbiquated could probably add something. I am am guilty of being 50+, but not by much; it is important to get input into this topic for older people as well. No sources? Chat gpt or gemini. I prefer well formulated opinions, and I hope others do as well.
The main footprint is the power consumption of server farms, not so much chip production. The industry’s solution seems to be doubling down on energy production.
Energy consumption per calculation keeps falling, but the volume is increasing faster.
A lot of this has to do with the modern approach to AI. After decades of trying and failing to build a smart machine, they’ve just started throwing hardware at the problem. Some of these new models have trillions of parameters. They all need to be calculated before the thing works. The training algorithms are relatively well understood, but nobody really knows what the machine learns. If anyone did, they would program it.
And generally, software is getting less and less efficient. Good programmers are expensive, chips and the energy to run crappy software are cheap. Back in the nineties we used to say “Intel giveth, and Microsoft taketh away”.
Sounds like American muscle cars from the 60’s. Just add bigger engines. Better suspension and brakes will come later.
from https://www.lauriegarrett.com/
While Rep. Thomas Massie, the lone GOP holdout voting against Mike Johnson, has essentially become a self-reliant energy advocate trying to live off-the-grid as much as possible. That’s the scary part. He knows too much about the reality of the situation.
https://www.roku.com/whats-on/tv-shows/off-the-grid-with-thomas-massie?id=c27fddb472bb519eafaf1557b47380f7
Transcript of Mike Johnson speech to congress, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEGqwbWXs9E
Couldn’t find where he said he will shut down climate research, but it goes without saying they will try.
Jesus. Roll back the bureacracy that runs gov’t. Sure you will Mikey.
“Restore ….. dominance”.
Hey Mike, what did God do about The Cedars of Lebanon?
Bread, circus and clowns. A herd of clowns.