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192 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum. Feb 14, 2018”
Food for thought.
Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson:
“History is written by the victors, but it’s victims who write the memoirs.”
“Most people, when directly confronted by evidence that they are wrong, do not change their point of view or course of action but justify it even more tenaciously. Even irrefutable evidence is rarely enough to pierce the mental armor of self-justification.”
Some of the people who stumble into this forum who make foolish arguments, or poorly informed arguments, aren’t really trolls, although most are.
Some of them are the kind so aptly described in the quote.
Some of us regulars have made up our minds about certain things, and absolutely refuse to consider the possibility that they might be wrong.
I won’t mention any names, but I’m one of them, most likely.
One of my problems is that I’m like everybody else who is wrong under such circumstances.. unable to see that I AM the one in the wrong, lol.
Some of us refuse to believe new tech such as batteries can get to be cheap enough to use them on the grand scale.
Some of us refuse to believe that just because something was believed to be impossible yesterday, and even today, it will always be impossible, such as traveling to the stars.
Sam Harris:
“You can do what you decide to do — but you cannot decide what you will decide to do.”
“We do not know what we intend to do until the intention itself arises. To understand this is to realize that we are not the authors of our thoughts and actions in the way that people generally suppose.”
“You are not controlling the storm, and you are not lost in it. You are the storm.”
WB Irvine:
“Your primary desire, says Epictetus, should be your desire not to be frustrated by forming desires you won’t be able to fulfill.”
“We humans are unhappy in large part because we are insatiable; after working hard to get what we want, we routinely lose interest in the object of our desire. Rather than feeling satisfied, we feel a bit bored, and in response to this boredom, we go on to form new, even grander desires.”
“..the easiest way for us to gain happiness is to learn how to want the things we already have.”
Ori Brafman:
When things go wrong, we can either apply a short-term, Band-Aid solution or remember that in the grand scheme of things, it’s only a minor misstep.
Along a similar vein, I recently watched an intresting Youtube video of a talk by Neil deGrasse Tyson:
The “related videos” included some stuff on “flat earthers” which I watched and was dumbfounded that in 2018 there are still people who believe that the earth is flat and all evidence to the contrary is contrived. I find it incredible that these people actually try to logically argue that the earth is flat despite the difficulty in explaining many facets of their flat earth relative to observed reality. Some people it seems live in a fact free bubble.
On the other hand, most of the people who frequent this blog firmly believe that oil and ultimately all fossil fuels are a finite resource, the formation of which took millions of years. There are folks who believe in a literal interpretation of scripture and thus hold the idea that the world is six thousand years or some similar number of years old. I don’t suppose that they will ever be convinced that the ideas about the formation of oil are even close to reality. This means there is a giant chasm between those who believe that FF are finite and those who posit that FF are provided by God and therefore limitless.
I have a belief shared with a few other people that vitamin C is sort of a miracle vitamin and that it can be used to treat many maladies instead of using pharmaceuticals in many cases. This belief does not exist in a vacuum but was initiated by discovering the work of scientists and doctors on the Internet. It included reading sections of a book by a biochemist by the name of Irwin Stone, available on-line: The Healing Factor – Vitamin C Against Disease. I also looked at this Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C abbreviated, sumarized and annotated by one Lendon H. Smith, M.D., based on work done by one Frederick R. Klenner, M.D., including successful treatment of patients showing symptoms of the onset of polio during a polio outbreak in the late spring of 1949. I read The Origin of the 42-Year Stonewall of Vitamin C where I found out about this polio outbreak and Dr. Klenner’s methods for treatment. I read about the work of other proponents of Vitamin C therapy like the late Robert F. Cathcart III, M.D. and Abram Hoffer, M.D.. Cathcart is particularly controversial having been deleted from Wikipedia since 2007. He was a staunch advocate of extremely high doses of vitamin c for treatment of all manner of illnesses.
In adopting these opinions I may well be engaging in the same sort of behavior that I am ascribing to flat earthers. The thing is there are still doctors who believe as I do in the therapeutic use of vitamin C but they are rare. There is also the case where a vitamin C proponent who also has a law degree, Thomas Levy, M.D., went to New Zealand to assist a family with getting the medical facilities there to use vitamin C, a situation the family credits with saving the life of Aukland farmer Alan Smith. There are stories, web sites and videos featuring some of names I have mentioned and while the medical community claims to have debunked the vitamin C therapy idea, vitamin C proponents claim that the studies debunking the vitamin C therapies are flawed. In the final analysis, my personal experience using vitamin C has made me a believer. Does that place me in the same category as “flat earthers”? I view the scientific arguments being made by vitamin C proponents as scientifically valid. Am I just displaying the same sort of bias that I am attributing to “flat earthers”.
When you add the climate science versus the climate change deniers, it get’s even more challenging. Who is right? Who is living in a bubble, a reality of their own construction? Of course I think that I’m on the right side of all these “debates” but, so does everybody else including people I consider bat shit crazy for subscribing to their beliefs. They probably think the same about me.
When and how will the “debates” be settled in this age of manufactured realities?
Vitamin C is a difficult question. There’s no question that the mainstream medical establishment is deeply biased against it. It’s very difficult to get good information about it.
For those who wonder why the medical establishment might be deeply biased against vitamin C, the principle of “Cui bono” (for whose benefit) applies. I am not suggesting that there is any conspiracy among medical professionals and drug companies to “fight” vitamin C but, each player could independently take steps to defend their own livelihood or existence by downplaying whatever information comes out about the benefits or efficacy of vitamin C as a treatment.
One aspect could be a difficulty accepting that a simple, natural, non-patentable substance could be used to replace a drug or method that involved thousand of hours of research and development and the expenditure of ridiculous amounts of money. Considering the amounts of money involved, I have little difficulty accepting reasons why drug companies or doctors would want to downplay the efficacy of vitamin C treatments.
My point is, how can I be so sure I am not deserving of the same level of ridicule and disdain I hold for “flat earthers” or believers in abiotic oil?
All you can do is read the research and use your own best judgement. Medscape is very useful.
I personally think that Pauling went a little overboard, but that he did have some good ideas. I take 2-3 grams of C per day – it very likely helps somewhat, and it’s very low risk.
Vitamin D is similar – the evidence still isn’t quite as strong as one would like but there’s a lot of epidemiology behind it. It’s very likely to be pretty helpful, and it’s also very low risk.
The only portion of THE ESTABLISHMENT that is worthy of our full trust is that part of it which deals purely in the physical sciences such as physics, and math.
And even in the hard sciences, sometimes you have to wait a while for certain old guys to die, so as to make room for new blood. In the softer fields, you may have to wait generations for progress to happen, once a mistaken theory is set in stone.
You can’t put your full trust in anybody else. Engineers signed off on the design of Fukushima for instance, although they are well trained in physics and math.
I could relate other instances, as could most of us here, where the establishment has been not only wrong but grossly wrong for a long time, before finally acknowledging evidence that was there and obvious all along, and admitting its errors.
Right now I’m in the middle of a book that in my estimation will upend the conventional wisdom about the various health problems referred to as dementia’s.
It’s titled The End of Azheimer’s and it was written not by quacks peddling miracle cures but rather by a team of doctors and researchers with a lifetime each of experience at the top of their profession, holding positions at elite universities. The medical ESTABLISHMENT still scoffs at them.
Just about all of us here appear to be older men, and that means virtually all of us are at risk of dementia, excepting only those of us who die relatively young for other reasons. It OUGHT to be MANDATORY reading but the technical parts will be over the heads of some of us, those without any training in biology. The rest, however, are accessible to everybody, and the accessible parts explain what you can do to cut the odds of being a victim by half or better.
Now here’s a free jewel, a nice fat gold nugget, to be enjoyed the next time you have a few minutes to read for pleasure.
A number of great writers think this is the funniest story they have ever read. I’m not much of a writer, but I’m one hell of a reader, and I agree.
It’s a flat earth story.
If anybody reads it and thinks he wasted his time, and posts a comment to that effect, I will give up posting comments here for two full days by the clock.
“In a study on recent faults in the Irish grid, it found that 360MW of batteries could have provided the same amount of power, after 0.1 seconds, as the inertial response of 3000MW of synchronous generators.”
Exciting times!
The Regan star wars rail Gun prototype was powered by warehouses of car batteries feeding a giant inductor. The limiting factor is the internal resistance of the cells which you can keep lowering by more Parallel connections
EU Tells Trump: No Paris Climate Deal, No Free Trade
France’s foreign affairs minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne told the French Parliament last week that his country will insist that TTIP never be revived if Trump carries through on his promise to leave the Paris Agreement.
“One of our main demands is that any country who signs a trade agreement with EU should implement the Paris Agreement on the ground,” Lemoyne said. “No Paris Agreement, no trade agreement. The U.S. knows what to expect.”
Given that every country has veto power over new free trade deals, this threat alone would be enough to kill TTIP. Among EU member states, France has been the most skeptical about the free trade deal.
The EU recently concluded a free trade deal with Japan that includes language on the Paris Agreement, and such language is already in drafts of a free trade deal with the Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Boy, is this a volatile market on the Dow.
So far, so good—- but I have a uneasy feeling.
Dennis – and any interested parties – might want to read today’s (2/13/18) editorial from the Boston Globe concerning the LNG shipment from Yamal into Boston the other day.
The recent shunning of Northern Pass, next spring’s retirement of the ~700Mw Pilgrim nuke, and the moratorium of wind plants in Maine all point to a squeezing of affordable electricity in New England during future cold snaps.
The fact that the newspaper folks seem to be encompassing a somewhat broader view in these affairs is offset, to a degree, by the proximity of severe negative consequences if prompt actions are not taken.
“Maine’s governor imposed a moratorium on new wind energy projects in the state on Wednesday out of fear that the projects could harm the state’s tourism industry. At the same time, Gov. Paul LePage (R) is supporting efforts by the Trump administration to open the Atlantic Coast, including waters off the coast of Maine, to oil and gas drilling.”
“LePage, a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, has adopted many positions against renewable energy since taking office. During his two terms as governor, he has been one of the nation’s most outspoken climate deniers, targeting anti-pollution, clean energy and efficiency programs. He has also argued that Maine could benefit from the effects of climate change, even as its shrimping fishery collapsed in part due to higher water temperatures.” https://thinkprogress.org/maine-governor-imposes-wind-moratorium-413f7303fe49/
LePage is even more embarrassing as a governor than Trump is as President.
Only another year before sensible government returns to Maine.
The Pilgrim nuclear plant is being shut down because it is not economic due to low natural gas prices driving down wholesale electricity prices.
Increasing pipeline capacity to the Northeast is one possibility, but Massachusetts Law needs to be changed to accomplish that. That is up to the legislators in Massachusetts.
It’s pretty clear from the demand curve that NE has a decent amount of solar on the customer side. The ISO reporting doesn’t do a good job of showing that.
It has a nice discussion of Demand Side Management, but doesn’t discuss how much that could be expanded…
If you live in Florida, doctors say climate change is already affecting your health
Also, more kids with guns and I’m so sick of the “thoughts and prayers” for the dead children. This sick stuff only happens in the US. The terrorists at the NRA were right on form tweeting this pic for valentines day…
Yep, ‘Merikins should be careful with guns (we are violent adolescents).
While guns and deaths have a correlation: In 2010, 67% of all homicides in the U.S. were committed using a firearm.[7] In 2012, there were 8,855 total firearm-related homicides in the US, with 6,371 of those attributed to handguns. In 2012, 64% of all gun-related deaths in the U.S. were suicides.[9] In 2010, there were 19,392 firearm-related suicides, and 11,078 firearm-related homicides in the U.S. In 2010, 358 murders were reported involving a rifle while 6,009 were reported involving a handgun; another 1,939 were reported with an unspecified type of firearm. Firearms were used to kill 13,286 people in the U.S. in 2015, excluding suicide. Approximately 1.4 million people have been killed using firearms in the U.S. between 1968 and 2011, equivalent to a top 10th largest U.S. city in 2016, falling between the populations of San Antonio and Dallas, Texas.
In the United States, areas with higher levels of gun ownership also have higher rates of gun assault and gun robbery.
This is generally true with other countries, but not always.
Yeah, Florida just got its St Valentines Day Massacre. Same troubled shooter, same military weapon.
NAOM
18th school shooting in USA this year – WTF?
Unfortunately freedom is not free. Remember as well “shall not be infringed” is a fundamental law of the land.
Hand grenades are arms. All types of bombs are arms. Chemical weapons are arms. Is it the law of the land that we can build bombs or chemical weapons that are meant to kill masses of people?
Should we be allowed to keep weapons that are designed, not for hunting but designed only to kill masses of people in one killing event? You know, weapons like the AK47?
Answer that goddamn question Charles! And what kind of speech are you planning on giving at the next meeting of your well-armed militia? After all, that is what the Second Amendment is all about, a well-armed militia being necessary.
Fuck you!
And the moron at the top with tiny fingers a BIG nuclear button!
1) That amendment was designed to try to ensure that the general populace always had the means to raise a militia that could resist a takeover of government by another bunch of psychopathic, money-grubbing, uncaring, elitist fuckheads. In that it pretty obviously has failed.
2) It was not an original idea. It came from 17th century English common law and the Bill of Rights. England and the rest of the western world decided they should move on from those sort of ideas with the enlightenment and the age of reason. Probably you wouldn’t be very fond of that sort of thing as it was led by a bunch of forward thinking scientists and philosophers. However amongst them, and at the least heavily influenced by them, were all the authors of your constitution and first set of amendments
3) Go fuck yourself … or one of your AR15s if you wish, luckily for you, you have the freedom to choose.
That amendment was designed to try to ensure that the general populace always had the means to raise a militia that could resist a takeover of government
Are you sure? I had the impression it was designed to ensure that the states could retain their equivalent at the time of the National Guard. I think it was an alternative to a national standing army, which was seen as a threat to freedom. The US only developed a standing army after WWII, and it kind’ve looks like the Founding Fathers had a point…
This is sick, last year in the US mass killings killed more than 4 9/11’s. After just one 9/11 we lost a lot freedom at the airport and unleashed the NSA to bug all our communication. But it’s to much to ask to check someones background at a gun show before selling them an assault riffle – BS! We need to bring back the assault weapons ban, ban bump stocks, and ban armor piecing ammo as a start.
Armor piercing ammo is only for killing cops. I’ve never seen a deer wearing armor, why do you need that shit? Don’t you think Blue lives matter? Or are you with the NRA and want to make sure criminals can kill cops?
I’m sure you would love to see your children gunned down in the name of freedom.
NAOM
This European comedy sketch explains how the world sees America’s gun problem
There’s something going on in the world. A situation we cannot ignore any longer and we need to address it. Say nay to NRA (nonsensical rifle addiction).
From the creator of ‘Netherlands Second’ and ‘Westeros the Serie’s.
To be fair, if you look at that list it includes a school security guard whose firearm accidentally discharged, and a bullet that hit a school’s exterior in the middle of the night.
Those are the most extreme “oh, really?” examples, but half the list is incidents that don’t fit the image we imagine when we hear “school shooting”.
That still leaves a staggering amount of legitimate school shootings so early in a new year, but facts matter and must always be maintained whether they support my views or not.
“That still leaves a staggering amount of legitimate school shootings so early in a new year,”
Rather ironic choice of words there…
You find a firearm accidentally discharged in a school and a bullet hitting a school acceptable? How many pounds of force to pull a trigger? What if that bullet had been during the day. Both incidents are totally unacceptable.
NAOM
It’s not a matter of acceptability, but rather having a respect of the inherent dangers of any kind of power tool or personal protective device. Yes, accidents can still happen, but they can be minimized by learning proper handling techniques to ensure both you and your weapon’s safety.
Well sounds like “learning proper handling techniques” wasn’t applied.
NAOM
Just Trump’s America is in the process of being made great again, please excuse all the dust, debris and a few extra bodies here and there!
Could be true but one year of Trump has had a far greater negative effect on the mental health of all Americans.
Hey Fred, late stage capitalism was never going to be fun.
It just Florida seems to relish in the sick aspects of our capital madness!
Florida is not all that much better or worse than other parts of our ‘Great Divided States’. This is Florida too, he was watching me diving in a school of gray snapper.
.
Kool!
Nothing agains Florida.
I lived in Guam, and a abundance of friends were from Florida.
While looking for shallow water to fish in, the heron found instead the Atlantic Ocean and was totally upset about how evolution had not made it’s legs long enough for the biggest fish pond ever.
Maybe it didn’t hear the call to fly north, cuz it’s, you know, hard of heron…
You’ll egret that!
Owl talk and no action!
This thread has taken a swift tern for the worse.
At least we’re leaving no tern unstoned…
To be honest Nick, for an oil oriented board, I’m a little disappointed that nobody made a petrel pun, and that’s a little hard to swallow.
Hey, he should have evolved into a pelican… tough noogies!
At least the herons come back to the lake, there are still some fish to eat. No frogs or snakes left. Ice fishermen have depleted too, along with the fish.
The screech owls have not shown up, first time in years.
Black birds are back again, for the 60 degree weather which seems to happen every month of the year now.
Was just up in the mountains, 60F at 2000 feet above sea level and no sign of ice or snow anywhere in mid-February. 41N latitude, well inland from the ocean.
It has been feeling almost summer like down here in South Florida. Highs in the low 80s overnight lows in the low 70s. Today at least it was clear and dry. Last summer wet bulb temperatures were close to lethal on more than a few occasions.
I appreciate your nature pics, Fred, including that underwater orange thing in a previous thread.
Although similar pics could be pulled up from online, of course it’s the personal aspect that makes a difference.
I live downtown (Halifax) and recently decided to see if some sort of ‘communion’ with some local birds could be generated without the use of food- an experiment.
This morning, I had the usual couple of crows on the electrical wires outside my window upstairs and my bike was locked on a pole on the sidewalk just below them.
As I unlocked my bike, I looked up at them looking down at me, and said good morning in my own language, along with a few words about the weather or whatever, and as I was just pulling away with the bike, they crowed back, to which I answered in a poor version of their language.
They seem to be intrigued by my whistles to the starlings in the nearby tree as well.
When the crows land on the wire, I sometimes open the window upstairs and say hello.
SHELL, THE WORLD’S SECOND-BIGGEST OIL COMPANY, IS EXPANDING ITS BET ON RENEWABLE ENERGY.
Shell’s North American unit agreed to provide a credit line for trading and a revolving loan facility to Inspire Energy Holdings LLC, according to a statement Wednesday. The Santa Monica, California-based clean-power, smart-home and energy-management company will use the funds to expand its reach. Terms weren’t disclosed.
While Shell and its major rivals still have the bulk of their investments in oil and natural gas, they are taking steps to diversify. Shell agreed in January to buy a 44 percent stake in Nashville-based Silicon Ranch Corp., which owns and operates about 100 U.S. solar plants. A month earlier, the Anglo-Dutch company bought First Utility Ltd., the U.K.’s seventh-largest power provider. And that followed deals last year for electric-car charging networks in Europe.
German cities to trial free public transport to cut pollution
Plan to be tested in five cities in effort to meet EU air pollution targets and avoid big fines
“Car nation” Germany has surprised neighbours with a radical proposal to reduce road traffic by making public transport free, as Berlin scrambles to meet EU air pollution targets and avoid big fines.
The move comes just over two years after Volkswagen’s devastating “dieselgate” emissions cheating scandal unleashed a wave of anger at the auto industry, a keystone of German prosperity.
“We are considering public transport free of charge in order to reduce the number of private cars,” three ministers including the environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, wrote to EU environment commissioner Karmenu Vella in the letter seen by AFP Tuesday.
I once worked for a large UK computer company. If you worked outside London you got a company car, if you worked in central London, as I did, you got free travel passes for London Transport. That worked out very much better than driving even though this was some years ago. Several years later, I worked for a different company where I had a company car but spent most of my time out of London. One day I had a call to make, early morning, in a part of London I knew to be packed with little parking at that time. I parked at a suitable tube station, on the outskirts, and tubed in and back. Boy, did I catch it from the boss for not using my car! Nothing seemed to persuade him that it was far quicker and got me back , available much sooner than sitting in traffic jams for hours (probably took half the time). No, I should take my car as I might need it!
Attitudes to cars in cities need to change. Free transport is one way, while cutting available parking is another. However mistakes can be made as I have experienced driving many, in city, miles because of poorly thought out traffic schemes that divert you away from where you are trying to get to (eg 7 miles to travel 1/4 mile from car park to pick up equipment).
NAOM
It’s hard to impossible to predict what politicians, our leaders will do, but it’s safe enough to say that what happens economically will have as much to do with their decisions as any other factor.
And politicians will decide on what new agricultural technologies are permitted.
Genetic engineering of crops and domestic animals does present some risks, but the risks are apparently low to moderate, in relation to the possible pay off in increased food production….. and people in modern times aren’t going to starve quietly in place.
Whatever CAN be done to increase food production, so as to buy more time for the population to level off and begin declining is probably worth doing, given the potential cost of NOT doing it.
And Mother Nature is going to go right on engineering new plants and animals whether we like it or not.
Genes have ways of packing up and moving and taking up quarters in new neighborhoods, without any help from us, although the chances of a successful natural viable hybrid are of course greatly increased when we put in large fields of similar and closely related crops within the distances that pollen can carried by wind, insects, or and farmers, who inadvertently haul various pests as well as weed seed and so forth from one place to another on equipment and shoe leather.
Arctic above 80N is starting out warmer than average, similar to the two previous years.
Underwater video shows marine life growing at wind farm
February 15, 2018 by Philip Marcelo Offshore wind proponents are touting new undersea footage that suggests a vibrant marine habitat is growing around the nation’s first offshore wind farm—a five-turbine operation off Rhode Island’s waters.
American Wind Energy Association
Published on Feb 14, 2018
After a year of operation, it’s clear that the fishing community and offshore wind near Block Island are thriving together. Each offshore wind turbine supports giant shellfish communities, which creates a healthy marine ecosystem.
America’s first offshore project, the Block Island Wind Farm, was completed in late 2016. Block Island residents, including fishermen, have been pleased with the results. Electricity rates are down, tourism is up, and the island has access to high speed internet for the first time because of the project.
The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) and the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind (SIOW), based at the University of Delaware, released this video that features never-before-seen underwater footage of fish feeding at America’s first offshore wind farm, as well as testimonials from local recreational fishermen and charter captains.
Strange! Just clicked the Youtube link and it plays. Have you tried playing the embedded video link in the article? Where are you located? Maybe it is a local issue.
Yes, YouTube works but the article link does not. It comes up with “Not Found
We’re sorry, the resource you requested is no longer available or has moved to a new location.” I checked the site media and did not find it and I also tried two different web browsers.
A record-breaking month of rooftop installations and a flood of large-scale solar farms could almost double Australia’s solar power capacity in a single year, industry analysts say.
A massive solar energy boom is being predicted for 2018, after an unprecedented number of industrial solar farms were approved by the New South Wales and Queensland governments last year.
Last month also became the biggest January on record for rooftop installations, according to the renewables website RenewEconomy and industry analysts SunWiz.
South Australia announces grants worth $8.7m for pumped hydro storage
Read more
With 111MW of new panels, it saw a 69% rise compared with the same month last year and became one of the top five months ever – largely driven by low installation costs and a boost in commercial uptake.
At the same time, nearly 30 new industrial solar farms are scheduled to come on line.
NSW approved 10 solar farm projects last year – twice as many as the year before – and has approved another in 2018. Queensland currently has 18 large-scale projects under construction, which is the most in the country.
The new farms could be operational within the year, according to John Grimes, the chief executive of the Smart Energy Council.
“These solar farms can be built within a matter of weeks,” he said. “They’re really quick and simple.”
I’m hoping somebody here knows how much it costs in Australia to install a typical residential solar system there. I would also like to hear something about Aussie building codes, and what it costs there to upgrade an old house, compared to what it costs here in the states.
Since most of the country seems to be very dry nearly year around, it should be really easy to upgrade the insulation in an older house, given there shouldn’t be much if any problems with condensation.
Another thing I’m interested in finding out, if I can, is how fast the prices of super efficient refrigerators and such are coming down in Australia.
This kind of refrigerator is still outrageously expensive here in the states, although it obviously doesn’t cost all that much more to build one, especially as the number manufactured increases.
The last time I found anything comparing the cost of a turn key system here in the USA with the cost in Germany, a couple of years ago, the Germans were doing residential installations for HALF what they cost here in the states.
Yair . . .
Hi OFM. This is one outfit of many supplying gear.
As far as I know there are no engineering requirements to installing a system, they just use approved components an screw them on the roof . . . my little 12 panel 10 KWhr a day job was installed in about three hours.
We may hit 10 billion, but it may be more like smashing into the ceiling from a trampoline launch just before things go through the floor.
In any case, I’m unsure it is that 10 billion cannot be sustained per se, but that it almost certainly cannot with the current technoindustrial status-quo footprint.
In order to, let’s say, create a safety net after the trampoline and before the floor, we’d probably have to look at ‘technology’ from a strictly biological standpoint and start doing and experimenting with the sorts of things along the lines of my other post about microbes, specifically, as an example, with regard to the bold paragraph.
While I’m unsure, this sort of thing may be along the lines of a few approaches, such as rewilding, green anarchy, permaculture, and circular/doughnut/steadystate economics.
“EB: …some of our strongest and most loved flavours – coffee, chocolate, cheese, salami, olives, as well as soy, miso and tempeh, wine and beer – are still alchemised via the life-death-life process of bacteria and yeasts…
People often go ‘Eeeugh!’ when they see a bucket of compost, or smell one of my stronger ferments. Many people live in a very clean bubble where life processes can’t come in. I think it’s really important to stick our fingers in the earth, and for our kids to as well.
I bought a piss bucket recently and shocked my family: ‘You’re not going to make us piss in that are you?’ they cried. ‘Well, yeah,’ I said, ‘because piss is an amazing fertiliser, and nowadays we just think it’s something horrible and smelly. But it’s a life-giving property, right here in our system, and we just waste it.’ I want to bring back into the life-cycle all those vital things we just keep getting rid of.
I like this idea of the uncivilised. Many young people who come to my events are fed up with modern lifestyles. They’re get really excited about hands-on life processes like fermenting. When I get overwhelmed by the horrors of our fragmented world, I remember so many people have a real need for uncivilising, for seeing a different way. Things have been sterile for too long – we need to get grimy again…
MW: What about the future? Given our bodies are host to so many microbes, might we be our own microbial revolutions?
EB: Well, the current misuse of Earth and its resources is leading us to disaster. But many small groups of people are experimenting in living and doing things differently. They don’t believe in the predominant systems and want to uncivilise themselves. So from that disaster a lot of social fermentation is happening, bubbling in the corners, creating another type of atmosphere, temperature and timeframe for other things to blossom and thrive. “
Hi Caelan,
You’re dead on, number one is a superb fertilizer.
But here’s some equally excellent advice from a professional farmer, which I learned by way of hands on work when I wasn’t any taller than my Dad’s belt buckle. He learned it from his parents, who had it from theirs going back into the dim reaches of history.
Dilute it ten to one. Otherwise……… You’ll not only be wasting it, but you will likely kill some of the plants you are trying to help.
I seem to recall learning about that too, Glen, thanks, and naturally it depends on its contexts too. There’s sporadic pissing near large trees for example, wet compost, common sense and learn as you go. ‘u’
In any case, it appears that we are going to have to keep our wastes close to home if we know what’s good for us.
With 1-10 million of us on Earth (the population of the majority of our existence), you can piss just about anywhere you want.
Of course with a severely degraded planet, and 7.6 billion of us, it is also a moot point.
PAINTS, PESTICIDES, AND OTHER CONSUMER PRODUCTS NOW ADD AS MUCH TO AIR POLLUTION AS CARS
“Cars are no longer the top contributor to urban air pollution. That’s the conclusion of a new study presented here at the annual meeting of AAAS, which publishes Science, that finds pesticides, paints, adhesives, and other consumer and industrial products add about as much to air pollution as transportation does. For the new work, researchers examined volatile organic compounds (VOCs). VOCs react with air to create ozone and, separately, produce fine particulate matter, which contributes to haze. Both of these air pollutants are health hazards and contribute to respiratory diseases, particularly in urban areas where emissions tend to be highest. Emissions from cars and other automobiles have long been considered the major contributor to these kinds of air pollutants. But the new work, which examined the chemical productions statistics from industrial and government agencies, found pesticides, coatings, inks, adhesives, and personal care products such as perfumes produce more than double the emissions of cars. That means U.S. inventories underestimate VOC emissions from these products by as much as a factor of three while overestimating car VOC emissions by 40%, researchers also report today in Science. Because most people use the products that make VOCs indoors, the researchers also compared emissions from residential and commercial buildings to outdoor measurements in Los Angeles, California. They found the concentration of emission compounds indoors was seven times higher than in ambient air. That means air pollution is increasingly from consumer and industrial products rather than from the transportation sector. These products are used indoors where people spend most of their time, which means their use poses a health risk that requires updated regulations, the researchers say.”
That is why we have catalytic converters on cars, to reduce the level of pollution by converting them to water, CO2, N2, and O2 . Without them they would be the major polluters.
There is no catalytic converter in place for chemical products. Plus VOC’s are often also GHG’s themselves before reacting in the atmosphere.
It’s those little things that count, or is it the forgotten things, I can’t quite remember.
Mechanical insulation can save use amounts of energy and maintenance of mechanical insulation is also very important in saving energy and reducing CO2 emissions. This is a no brainer as far as cost and materials use, yet is not properly pursued.
These examples illustrate the huge energy efficiency opportunity in the industrial and commercial sectors: $4.8 billion in energy savings, a reduction of 43 million metric tons of CO2 emissions, and 89,000 new jobs. The CO2 reduction would be the equivalent of shutting down nine coal plants.
Mechanical insulation maintenance does not require research or an extensive engineering process. The scope can be identified, an RFQ issued, and the work initiated in weeks. It is truly “shovel ready” and pays for itself over and over again.
Using government data, NIA estimated that maintenance of insulation at industrial facilities alone can generate more than $3.6 billion in energy savings per year, reduce 83 billion pounds of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, and create more than 27,000 jobs annually.
In an appraisal of state facilities in Montana, NIA discovered how valuable repairing or replacing mechanical insulation can be. Approximately 3,500 un- or under-insulated items were identified in 25 buildings (56 mechanical rooms), with estimated energy savings of approximately 6 billion Btu per year, a resulting overall payback period of 4.1 years, and an annualized rate of return of 24 percent. Associated reductions in CO2 emissions are estimated at 300 metric tonnes per year. On a square foot of gross building area basis, the energy savings averaged 4.6 kBtu/sf/yr, while energy cost savings averaged $0.043/sf.
Mechanical insulation and insulation in general are among the few industrially manufactured products that save more energy over their life span than is required for their manufacturing. NIA has estimated that some mechanical insulation systems save more than 140 and up to 500 times more energy over their life spans (20 years) than it takes to produce them. This is based on performance comparison of surfaces with and without insulation. Mechanical insulation can also save a minimum of 150 (and up to 750) times more CO2 emissions than it takes to produce the insulation product.
I was wondering if Robert Mueller picked you up yet for your Russian intervention in the 2016 election. Would you like me to inform the FBI so that you could turn yourself in ?
13 Russians Indicted as Mueller Reveals Effort to Aid Trump Campaign
WASHINGTON — The Justice Department charged 13 Russians and three companies on Friday in a sprawling indictment that unveiled a sophisticated network designed to subvert the 2016 election and to support the Trump campaign. It stretched from an office in St. Petersburg, Russia, into the social feeds of Americans and ultimately reached the streets of election battleground states.
The Russians stole the identities of American citizens, posed as political activists and used the flash points of immigration, religion and race to manipulate a campaign in which those issues were already particularly divisive, prosecutors said.
“The indictment alleges that the Russian conspirators want to promote discord in the United States and undermine public confidence in democracy,” Rod J. Rosenstein, the deputy attorney general overseeing the inquiry, said in a brief news conference. “We must not allow them to succeed.”
My helper HB is almost sure to chime in and contribute his usual remarks about my helping the Russians and the Republicans.
But the internet didn’t exist back when HRC was running her commodity market scam, which was what first attracted my attention to her ethical record.
Go turn yourself in OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster or just admit your a fool who got used by Putin.
Hi HB.
If this wimpy reply is all you can come up with, it’s not going to be fun enough to make it worth bothering with you anymore.
And now that some time has passed, more than half the hard core D’s I know personally are admitting, off the record, that the election was the D’s to lose, and that they lost it because HRC’s long term record and her idiotic campaigning strategy lost it for them.
The D’s are rather unlikely to ever again make the mistake of running a presidential candidate with such a lousy reputation with half the voting public even before the first primary, and such an appalling lack of charisma.
Note that the R establishment fought Trump tooth and claw, to prevent his getting the nomination, and only came together after he literally hijacked the party.
It’s too bad HRC OWNED the D party apparatus, enabling her and her homies to rig the primaries in her favor, else Sanders or somebody else would have won the nomination, and the election as well.
And those of us who are old enough, who have been following politics a long time, have heard of “defining deviancy down”.
The HRC faction taught this fine art to the R voters, lol, so they were ready to overlook the shortcomings of Trump the same way D’s overlooked the short comings of Bill and Hillary.
If you actually go out in the street and ASK somebody why they voted for Roy Moore , or Trump, they are not at all unlikely to say this very thing….. that you fight fire with fire.
The idiots who ignored Bill’s abuse of women, and Hillary’s covering for him, did the same thing. They ignored Moore’s and Trump’s.
How are your oil stocks doing?
I don’t notice you posting much critical of Trump/R new tax law, lol.
Would that be because you aren’t expecting to pay much on your R type income?
“Miami will probably be doomed when the sea has risen 2 more feet. There is no nearby high ground to move buildings to; seawalls and the like won’t work [due to the porous bedrock that allows sea water to filter through]; and city and state leaders haven’t even agreed that there is a problem, much less started planning how to respond to the coming flood. Making a response all the more difficult, Miami’s demise will be slow and gradual; death from a thousand cuts.
Bold mine
While I will be the first to admit that Florida’s government officials are beholden to fossil fuel interests and there are plenty of climate science deniers here, the sentence I bolded, is not quite true! Especially with regards Miami. Not that I think the plans are adequate by a long shot… but that’s another story.
Chairman’s Letter
SEALEVEL RISE TASK FORCE REPORT
“The potentially empowering capacity to be able to ’foresee and forestall’ is what ultimately distinguishes the human species from all others…”
Buckminster Fuller, Legendary Futurist
Sea Level Rise is an inevitable consequence of the warming of the oceans and the accelerated
melting of the planet’s ice sheets -regardless of cause. It is a measurable, trackable and relentless reality. Without innovative adaptive capital planning it will threaten trillions of dollars of the region’s built environment, our future water supply, our unique natural resources, our agricultural soils, and our basic economy.
Dealing with this challenge will require a coordinated effort of unprecedented commitment. As the report chronicles, that effort has already begun. Miami-Dade County has been a leader among local governments, thinking globally and acting locally.
The prior Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory
Journal of Coastal Zone Management
ISSN: 2473-3350
Miami’s Sea Level Rise and How the King Tide is Outing America’s
Political and Economic Jokers
John O’Brien*
University of Florida, Miami, FL, United States
Abstract This manuscript examines and critically stresses the signs of a looming climate event as sea level rise threatens to drown coastal communities nationwide. Specifically, a detailed focus on risk vulnerability in Miami is investigated in this manuscript. Several causal factors are identified and discussed in depth: the recurring celestial phenomenon known as “King Tide”, the natural tidal influence of the cycles of the moon, and the oft debated topic of climate change.
A correlation between climate change and human activity is analysed. Past and present governmental responses to sea level rise at local, state, and federal levels and scrutinized. The most flagrantly reckless deniers of seal level risk vulnerability are identified as politicians, real estate developers and investors. Parallels will be drawn between previous market bubbles and our currently surging real estate market. Responsible action is called for as the following questions are posed: How will sea level rise affect coastal communities as internally displaced persons are forced to seek higher ground? How can the climate event, “King Tide”, give rise to politically supported, forwardthinking
measures? Are powerful political interests aimed at sinking policy which addresses climate concerns? This manuscript asserts that should looming environmental warnings go unchecked and should those vested parties sidestep the implementation of bold policy moves, the “King Tide’s” glimpse into the future can be written: sea level rise will worsen with the absence of human intervention and coastal communities will mimic a mythical past, relegating Miami to suffer a fate similar to the ‘Lost City of Atlantis
Miami may indeed be doomed ,but despite claims to the contrary even our conservative Republican, climate science denying politicians, are well aware of our reality. They have all seen the flooding during our king tides and hurricanes are getting stronger and more destructive every year.
And here a review titled “Besides, I’ll be dead” by Meehan Crist of Jeff Goodell’s book “The Water Will Come”:
“In the coming years, as cities around the world need to be raised, rebuilt, walled off from the ocean, or abandoned, millions of people will be displaced, impoverished and left to fend for themselves by governments unwilling or unable to help. Driving along the Jersey shore, Goodell hears a man called Anthony Caronia on the radio, pleading for a government buyout of his home so he can move to higher ground:
‘I’m being honest with you, I’m giving up! … This is not right. This is not fair. Something needs to be done today. Today. Please understand me – this is a cry out for help. From anyone and everyone in America listening, Mr Anthony Caronia is begging the State of Louisiana and the United States government to come in and buy me out and please move my family outta harm’s way. Please understand my cry. I’m ready to go. I’m begging for help.’
Goodell writes with compassion and clarity: ‘Not everyone is going to be saved. Wealthy people will take care of themselves, either by moving their homes or elevating them or building seawalls or simply writing off the house as it crumbles into the sea, but for the vast majority of people who live on coastlines, it’s going to be a tough day when they wake up and realise that their state or federal government doesn’t have the money or the political will to rescue them.”
The articles concludes:
“What will happen in the next eighty years remains far from certain. There is a tipping point after which ice sheets will fully collapse – Greenland holds enough water to raise sea levels by roughly 22 feet – but researchers don’t know where that point lies. In January, NOAA released a major report on sea level rise that factors in current ice-sheet collapse and more than doubles the median rise in global sea levels predicted at the time of the Paris Agreement, from 2.3 feet to 4.9 feet. Goodell’s conclusion is crystal clear: ‘If we want to minimise the impact of sea level rise in the next century, here’s how we do it: stop burning fossil fuels and move to higher ground.’ If humans stopped using fossil fuels entirely by 2050, we might face two to three feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. Instead of 4.9 feet. Or 11 feet. But the water will come. The future depends on how humans rise to meet it.”
Sea level rise will be the least of our problems if we keep killing off the ecosystems, especially insect life.
To be frank, I really don’t see all that much difference there. I happen to think of those two issues as inextricably linked. We can probably place the blame directly on the underlying system and paradigm on which our entire global civilization is currently based. That is the root cause of all the ongoing ecological destruction of which sea level rise and insect die off are just two glaring manifestations of a much broader ongoing systemic collapse. This includes things like CO2 pollution, ocean acidification, sea level rise, petrochemical pollution, fertilizer runoff, agricultural use of pesticides, herbicides, habitat destruction, etc… etc…
We have met the enemy and he is us.
Walt Kelly
Yes Fred, they are inextricably linked to human activity. However, stopping the spraying of pesticides and herbicides is a separate problem from stopping fossil fuel burning.
Stopping fossil fuel burning will not solve the problems of habitat destruction or massive use of pesticides and herbicides. Humans will find new tech ways to continue those practices.
The only link between those that I can see lies right between the ears of a lot of people. They think they can do just what they want and damn the consequences (as long as they don’t go to jail or lose their money). Death is apparently not even on the board. Money, desire, and ego are the players in this game, to hell with the rest.
Yes Fred, they are inextricably linked to human activity.
No, that misses my point! They are inextricably linked to the current culture and linked to our social and economic paradigms. The ones that underlie our global industrial civilization.
We need a major shift in thinking about how we are going to live our lives, without which we won’t be able to address either the stopping of spraying of pesticides and herbicides or the stopping of fossil fuel burning.We need to seriously re-assess our basic fundamental core values.
Disclaimer: I am neither superstitious or religious, but imagine for a moment two cultures based on different world views.
One in which the people hold the land, the forests and the rivers as a sacred places where their ancestors spirits go to rest. A place where those ancestors look over the trees the birds the fish and animals there because they belong to their children and their children’s children and their spirits work to protect them.
A second world view where the rivers and forests with their fauna and flora are there to be exploited for profit by a few owners of the land. Where the owners of today don’t think of protecting resources for their children and don’t recognize the fact that they are borrowing that land from future generations. A culture of instant gratification benefiting only a few in the present.
Most of us, members of western societies, live in a culture that holds the second view as the one that is good, progressive and civilized and generally view the first one as primitive and backward.
Which goes right to the heart of your final point! Money, desire, and ego are the players in this game, to hell with the rest.
Basically you are up against the MAGA people who are all supposedly good God fearing Christians and believe that God created nature for man to rule over…they don’t do science, or listen to rational arguments, don’t have a clue what socialism even means, but they are against it in principal because the rest of their tribe is too… They want their big gas guzzling pickups and their NRA membership cards, they are scared to death of foreigners taking it all away through unfair trade!
You got any ideas on how to change that culture? How are you going to fight the economic power and clout of the special interests who are openly manipulating these people? Hurry up with a suggestion because we don’t have a heck of a lot of time.
“We need a major shift in thinking about how we are going to live our lives, without which we won’t be able to address either the stopping of spraying of pesticides and herbicides or the stopping of fossil fuel burning.We need to seriously re-assess our basic fundamental core values. ”
Isn’t that what I said, that the problem in in our heads?
Isn’t that what I said, that the problem in in our heads?
At the risk of sounding like a sentimental old sap who traffics in clichés, I think its more about what’s in our hearts and our souls and what kind of cultural values we embrace collectively. And to be clear, I don’t mean that with any religious connotation.
I agree, but see my latest idea on how to convince or constrain the less than noble contingent.
Fred, did you read the book “Drawdown”?
Let me ask you a question. Why do you think that things are so bad when most of the nations in the world have just agreed that climate change is a major threat to be acted upon? It took 5 decades to get that huge agreement.
You want to change the economic culture? That is easy, give a strong value to any extraction or use of nature, both material and biological. Charge taxes or fees for it and use that fund to preserve as much wild land and oceans possible, make pollution free industries and commerce, assist in making zero energy buildings, etc. Also fund running down any crooks that try to cheat the system or pollute the world.
Charge for every fish, crustacean, mollusk, piece of land converted to human use, every barrel of oil, ton of coal, or any other resource. If we use it, take it, we pay for it. Make the world valuable economically and it will be treated with a lot more respect. Not just one time fees, but use fees and per item fees.
You want that tree, it will cost a fee of two hundred dollars or more. You want to farm that 200 acre plot, you pay for all the nature removed and you pay each year for the use.
You want to spray toxic chemicals. No, not one drop.
Want to extract water from an aquifer? Charges for that and big fines if the water aquifer falls in level.
No more free lunch, no more getting away with murder.
I think people would determine really quickly what was important and what was not.
To make the world important to people, make it expensive and make it global.
That all sounds like selfish big government socialism, which of course is just wonderful, until you run out of other people’s money, causing the job creating entrepreneurs of society to become the destitute. If you’ve ever read any kind of history, you would realize the next stage is world war as the givers of society lash out against their big government oppressors.
“That all sounds like selfish big government socialism”
“as the givers of society lash out against their big government oppressors.”
Yep, it would be horrible living in a sustainable world with lots more jobs and hope for the generations to come. Just horrible. Having an abundant and beautiful world with fresh clean water, clean air, and a life style one could be proud of is nothing that people want, at least some people.
Nope, we wouldn’t be filling our homes and dumps with junk. What a lost freedom that would be.
Hey, if you can’t act properly in this world, then you have two choices. The government will make you act properly or nature will get rid of you. Take your choice, the latter is much more violent and deadly.
I guess we see the world not as it is, but as we are Julian. I’d have categorized G.F.’s proposals, overall, as internalizing externalities so that they are accurately priced in order for market mechanisms to work based on true costs.
Since when is it socialism to require that people pay the true cost of their goods and services?
This is a serious question: Why do we get to pollute for free?
…until you run out of other people’s money, causing the job creating entrepreneurs of society to become the destitute.
You are either an ideological troll or an imbecil, probably both! You apparently do not grasp the basic principle that all economic systems are subsidiaries of Ecosystems Inc.
Without a functioning ecosystem all your job creating entrepreneurs are dead!
BTW since you are such a history buff could you give us a run down on how long we have had Neoliberal laissez-faire economic thinking in the world?
Fred, did you read the book “Drawdown”
No, I hadn’t heard of it. Just googled it.
Found this link to a talk about it on YouTube:
Talk by Paul Hawken editor of the new book “Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming” recorded April 21st at Town Hall Seattle
Will give it a listen later, TKS!
Yes, probably the most brilliant work done to date.
Hawkins should be approached with caution.
He has bought “simple capitalism”, and isn’t returning it.
A good thinker, with some good solutions, but in a box.
(as a ex Marin person, he was around frequently)
You need to be clearer about your assertions and also realize that it is not Hawkins, it was a very large group of people from around the world that put this together in a clearly logical and scientific fashion. Do not confuse the presenter with the work.
I’ll take a look, if the situation arises.
But the book is by Hawkins, and his role must not be diminished.
This is someone I have examined thoroughly, in person and his works.
Tell us when you come up with something better, or anything at all.
Hawkins should be approached with caution.
As should all proposals, ideas and organizations intent on mitigating the consequences of humans affecting the biosphere. If for no other reason than to make sure the cure is not worse than the disease.
He has bought “simple capitalism”, and isn’t returning it.
Capitalism happens to be the defacto system we find ourselves in at the present moment. Even China which calls itself a communist state is operating as a capitalist society. There are ideas for other economic systems being talked about but until they are fully implemented and accepted as the new normal this is what we have to work with, whether we want to or not. You can’t solve the problems of fish by positing they go live in some idealized fluid other than H2O. So let’s go with the flow for now.
Having said that, I would like to see a little more in depth access to their data and methodology. Their website has this:
Eighty of the solutions in this book already exist and are scaling to become competitive alternatives to now dominant, high-emitting technologies. They are economically viable, proven to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon dioxide, and have the potential to spread throughout the world.
Our approach was to collect as much data from a variety of vetted, widely-cited sources as possible, using our models to assess different potential pathways for global adoption. Since no individual organization, model, or researcher can claim to accurately know the future, or how every technology or practice will perform in every corner of the world, we gathered a wide range projections from multiple sources. This approach allowed us to generate reasonable, defensible guesses at how these solutions can grow and what their impacts could be.
Each solution is modeled based on a comparison between a reference case, assuming little change over the next thirty years, and three scenarios reflecting increasingly more accelerated global adoption.
I did watch the talk by Paul Hawken, the Editor of “Drawdown” and the one point that he made that leapt out at me was his comment about world peace. Which he said is not on the solutions list, not because it isn’t extremely important but because they weren’t able to accurately quantify it.
But just imagine the trillions and trillions spent on the military industrial complex at a global level, just to keep the fossil fuel industries of all the nations vying for those resources running…
Ok—
I just not into “simple capitalism”.
Obviously we have a issue here.
But, go ahead—–
Criticizing without any actual stated basis is much like farting, we cringe and hope it disperses.
Capitalism is a race to the bottom without strong regulation, which is what we see today in America. It will squeeze the wealth of the 99%, pushing it to the top 1% and destroy the environment. Which has been the Republican mantra since RayGun.
In the US, we first gave up function and now are even giving up form as far as the federal government and the economic system. Structure seems to be getting quite loose also with non-designated players taking on the role of designated ones. Although there is still some backlash against loss of structure.
Hopefully this will become a learning moment and the pendulum will swing the other way
Mueller Ain’t Going Away.
Gods are said to work in mysterious ways.
If we get lucky, the excesses of the current ruling class and ruling economic model will result in enough of us, collectively, suffering enough hard licks upside the head to wake us up, and get our attention, so that we change our ways…… before it’s WAY too late.
I call this the Pearl Harbor Wake Up event theory.
Times move very fast in these latter days. It used to take centuries for society to change as much as it has changed in many respects in just one recent generation.
I feel for the poor and less educated people who live in places like Miami.
As for the rest, the ones who have some education, and therefore presumably some brains, I’m not eager to bail them out, economically.
But then I’m pretty old fashioned about such things, and believe all the executives at banks that got bailed out should have had to surrender every dime they got in any fashion associated with their positions as executives, lol, and that the stocks should have all been confiscated and sold to make the rest of us, those of us who DID NOT OWN bank stocks, whole again, to the extent possible.
You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid.
Examples go a hell of a long way towards correcting stupid behavior on the part of others, if they’re effective enough.
We’re already at very high risk of financial collapse as it is, and the near certainty that we will be collectively saddled with TRYING to bail out waterfront property owners alone is probably enough to finish bringing down our financial house…… assuming it stands that long ANYWAY.
And with financial collapse, we can forget about any meaningful actions being taken to correct or at least minimize further environmental damage.
Ron, our gracious host, is basically right. We’re fucked, royally, as a species.
But I still believe there’s a possibility that some of us can pull thru and maintain an industrial civilization in a few places….. with some luck.
“You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid”
That’s why I have committed myself to make an example of you OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster. You make it easy nearly every time you post. It’s been nearly a year since I have nicknamed you and you continue to show examples of ignorance. You still live in denial.
“Mueller” isn’t “Going Away” and neither am I. Putin used your hate and jealousy to play you for a fool.
Just admit it and “call this the Pearl Harbor Wake Up event”.
Thank you HB,
Every reply helps me get across the real point, which is that anybody who chooses to support a candidate with the shortcomings of HRC when they have another wise viable choice has made a truly major mistake.
Trump couldn’t have won except for the fact that people like you were stupid enough to support HRC, throwing their principles, in case they had any, to the wind.
But I’m quite sure now that I have convinced at least a couple of dozen big D democrats with whom I’m personally acquainted that in the future, they will do well to support candidates who have favorable polling numbers, and less baggage.
Nearly all of the people in this forum who post regularly are mathematically literate.
I haven’t been able to get a single one of them, when directly challenged to do so, to defend HRC on her merits and record.
That failure speaks louder than my words.
She was about the worst candidate ever nominated by a major party, and she got the nomination because she had an octopus like grip on the party machinery.
I seldom have any thing favorable to say about the R party, but I will give it this much. It fought Trump tooth and claw trying to KEEP him from being the candidate, and at least a few prominent Republicans have called out Trump for what he is.
The Democrats are pretty goddamned short of prominent people who will call out Clinton for what she is.
But the future belongs to the younger people, because we old farts are departing fast.
I spent a good bit of time with people working for Sanders.
Ninety percent of them, locally , were young people, the best educated, the most liberal, the most highly principled young people it has ever been my pleasure to meet.
It’s hard to find a really and truly liberated and empowered young woman who supported Clinton. All the ones I met held her in contempt, as they did Trump.
AND EVEN if she had won, she would have been part and parcel of the Republican Party’s agenda, in way too many respects.
Her sort of overreaching, condescending, nose in the air, ENTITLED politics are as much as anything the reason the Republicans have been mopping the floor with the Democrats locally to nationally for the last couple of decades, even when the D’s controlled the WH.
I talk like a coach. You continue to talk like the blind partisan you are.
Apple Butter
On Super Bowl Sunday, only two teams play. Your the fool crying in the corner over spilled milk, when your team got knotted out in the first round of the play off. There was only two choices on November 8. Your hate and jealousy over whelmed you. Your vote for Jill Stein was a vote for Trump in the Russian play book. If you were a coach, you would know that. Your apple butter stinks.
“You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid”
There is no difference between bullshit and your apple butter
Governments are willing to pay billions to rebuild after storms and floods – in just the same places. Next time around, do it again. When will it be seen that moving is a cheaper option. I suppose they will try and rebuild even when the land lies underwater for 13 months of the year.
NAOM
The movement is occurring somewhat and the major movement will occur as further destructions happen and insurance disappears. People will just have to take losses. The era of play and no pay is ending. Everyone will pay more the further we push in the wrong directions.
All young people have been warned so they can avoid some of the disaster if they choose. The older people may be stuck or playing the waiting game of chance, hoping the disaster will not strike them before they are dead.
New survey shows first Arctic Ocean with an ice free summer season could be as early as 2031 and more certainly during the mid 2030’s.
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data
Using an inter-calibrated satellite
sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and
statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the
linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years
earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of
six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free
summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings,
and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six
statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the
earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.
Apart from the disclosure that Wall Sreet, is intent on tightening the screws on Puerto Rico, aided and abetted by the courts and the Federal Government, here’s something I find really interesting.
In addition to the work being done to rebuild the island’s transmission and distribution system (generation was largely undamaged), private companies have also been stepping in with small off-grid solutions.
As Bloomberg puts it, the SU Matrullas school, located in the remote town of Orocovis, “has given up on the island’s utility.”
Sonnen on Friday announced it has developed a solar+battery storage microgrid at the school, working with Puerto Rico’s Pura Energía, powering the school entirely with on-site generation. The company donated two smart energy storage systems, one 4kW/8kWh and the other 8kW/14kWh, paired with a 15 kW rooftop solar system provided by Puera.
The microgrid replaces the gas-fueled generator the school had been using, with clean and quiet solar power.
The rebuilding and re-envisioning of Puerto Rico’s electric grid will ultimately create a cleaner and more resilient grid, with far more modern technologies brought to bear. According to Sonnen, the school is done with PREPA —even if they restore power.
The school “currently does not plan to reconnect with [PREPA], even once power is restored to the area,” Sonnen said in a statement. The school will also soon be using an on-site water capture and filtration system.
A decade ago this would have been prohibitively expensive and some of the components of the system probably did not even exist as products one could purchase “off the shelf”.
FirstEnergy had proposed transferring the plant from one subsidiary to another, prompting federal regulators to worry about cross-subsidization issues. Regulators in West Virgnia would have allowed the deal, but FirstEnergy said they attached too many conditions for it to remain viable.
“Closing Pleasants is a very difficult choice,” FirstEnergy President and CEO Charles Jones said in a statement. “But the recent federal and West Virginia decisions leave FirstEnergy no reasonable option but to expeditiously move forward with deactivation of the plant.”
As the company prepares to shutter Pleasants, it will simultaneously look for potential buyers. Mon Power, a FirstEnergy subsidiary in West Virginia, is facing a capacity shortfall that will approach 1 GW within the next 10 years, according to its integrated resource plan accepted by West Virginia regulators in 2016. The utility expects it will need 700 MW by 2020 and 850 MW by 2027, and had proposed acquiring Pleasants to meet the shortfall.
I haven’t been able to discern from the article why exactly the owners feel it necessary to close this plant. Surely it is not on environmental grounds, given the tone of the current administration so, it must be uneconomic to continue to operate it. If that is indeed the case, in the face of the current administration’s love affair with coal, this is an ominous sign for the future of coal.
Energy wheeling and dealing in West Virginia.
I think you may find this “ORDER REJECTING DISPOSITION AND ACQUISITION OF GENERATION FACILITIES AND DISMISSING ASSUMPTION OF LIABILITIES” from FERC quite illuminating and interesting. Paragraphs 34 and 35 are quite a mouthful.
Things like setting the conditions for purchase of a power facility that surprisingly matches the Pleasants Power facility. Also the note about FirstEnergy’s plan to exit the competitive power generation market soon, as well as tossing the consumers a parasite where they would provide the money difference due to the power plant being uncompetitive. Lots more rotten dealings at the core of this one.
“In 1980, a government scientist discovered that breast milk in the US was so contaminated with DDT, PCBs and other industrial poisons that, if it were cow’s milk, it would be subject to ban by the US Food and Drug Administration. After two more decades of failed ‘chemical regulation’, a 2001 study showed that babies everywhere in the world were drinking industrial toxicants in breast milk. Worse, in 2005 a small study of the umbilical cord blood from 10 randomly chosen newborns in the US showed that babies are now coming into this world ‘pre-polluted’ with 200 industrial compounds.…
Perhaps not surprisingly, in the US, children’s health is deteriorating. The incidence of childhood cancers has risen 27 percent since 1974. In the 12 years between 1994 and 2006, childhood chronic conditions (asthma, obesity, learning and behavior problems) doubled (from 13 percent of all kids in 1994 to 27 percent in 2006)…
In 1991, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory identified the reason why industrial poisons have spread everywhere, worldwide. It’s because regulators have relied on a decision-making technique called quantitative (or numerical) risk assessment to determine which chemical releases are ‘safe’. By releasing ‘safe’ amounts of 80,000 different chemicals, corporations have contaminated the entire planet, so now no one is safe from chemical harm…”
The takers’ mentality runs through the environmental debate, too, and now we face the prospect of their bright-green vision, a dying world where humans have mastered, godlike, the technologies of dominion: massive solar arrays, geo-engineered shade, gleaming hydroponic cities and sweeping fields of mono-cultured soy — the output of a cultural algorithm that has been running thousands of years, a system of consumption and motion that will do anything to keep its wheels turning.
“…Kingsnorth built an idea he called ‘dark ecology’. In the Orion essay where he coined the term, he offered five answers to the ecological crisis, most of them suggestions for reconnecting to the wilder world: preserving nonhuman life; rooting oneself in the work of land or place; insisting that nature has intrinsic value; and ‘building refuges’ where non-human life can flourish. ‘Withdraw’, Kingsnorth advised, ‘so that you can allow yourself to sit back quietly and feel, intuit, work out what is right for you and what nature might need from you. Withdraw because refusing to help the machine advance — refusing to tighten the ratchet further — is a deeply moral position.’…
One day my ashes will be scattered in the eroding mountains, and our civilization, like that of Ozymandias, crumble, and the Earth be swallowed by our dying red star. This is no cause for despair; it is a reminder to be meaningful, to be makers instead of takers, to be of service to something — beauty, justice, loved ones, strangers, lilacs, worms. This is what Jeffers, the poet laureate of the ecocide, has to teach us. He points the way, but we must go further, and we must do so while keeping a sense of perspective. In Spain I carried with me a handwritten note from James Karman, a Jeffers scholar and author who helped me greatly in my reporting. On it are the final lines of a poem called ‘Credo’ and a favorite Jeffers’ insight: ‘The beauty of things was born before eyes and sufficient to itself; the heartbreaking beauty / Will remain when there is no heart to break for it.’ “
I think you would like Kingsnorth, Caelan—–
The Wake is quite good, but you do need to learn a new language to read it.
(after 30 pages, you are catching the vibe)
Jeffers? What more is there to say.
“I suppose I was probably halfway through it when I thought: There’s no way anybody’s going to publish this,” he said. “I’m writing a book about a period in history no one knows about, in a language no one can understand, with a central character who’s horrible. There’s absolutely no way anyone’s going to touch this with a bargepole, but I don’t care!”
If I can catch some extra time, I’ll check it out. Thanks for the recommend.
Another good example as to why nationalism, my country first, being xenophobic and anti immigrant is a really bad way to run any country trying to participate in today’s global economy!
Digital nomads are hiring and firing their governments
Benedict Anderson famously called the population of a nation state an “imagined community,” but today’s global workers have a very different community that they are imagining.
From cryptocurrency millionaires in Puerto Rico to digital nomads in hotspots like Thailand, Indonesia, and Colombia, there is increasingly a view that there is a marketplace for governance, and we hold the power as consumers. Much like choosing a cereal from the breakfast department of a supermarket, highly-skilled professionals are now comparing governments online — and making clear-headed choices based on which ones are most convenient and have the greatest amenities available.
“There is a shift happening where the country isn’t fixating, the talent is fixating,” Hindriks said. Governments — at least, some of them — are realizing that the generators of wealth today increasingly have infinite choice about where they live. A little more friction in the immigration process from an extra visa form could mean hundreds of digital nomads simply switch their plane tickets somewhere else, depriving a country of innovative thought and critical revenues.
I’m guessing that if there are any Digital Norwegians Nomads thinking of emigrating, they probably won’t be all that interested in moving to Trumpland.
TRUMP’S TOP SPY JUST CONTRADICTED THE WHITE HOUSE’S LINE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
“The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent — and possibly upheaval — through 2018,” Coats wrote. He noted that the past 115 years were the warmest in modern civilization and that the past few years were the warmest on record. And there’s a possibility of a sudden shift in the global climate once it reaches a tipping point, he said.
I thought that the military had been ordered that there was no such thing as climate change and they were not to worry about it. Might be wrong.
NAOM
You can’t change history by declaration, especially false ones.
That’s a good find, thanks. Almost every month something happens in the Arctic that hasn’t been seen before, whether it turns out to be a sign of a tipping point I guess depends on whether conditions will return as before, to me that looks pretty unlikely in most cases and they tend to cause change to accelerate. For example below is the Lincoln Sea and Nares strait. That used to be thick multiyear ice which blocked the strait. That all got smashed up last year; now, as the new ice gets pushed against the north coast of Greenland, rather than compressing and thickening it breaks up and gets exported.
The prediction above for ice free in the 2030s seems a bit optimistic to me. It is an extension of trends, but on those trends are imposed noise. One bad year and the ice could be gone, and bad years seem to pull the trend down more than good years can compensate.
Similarly the Greenland Sea used to have thick, landfast ice which disappeared at the end of last melt season. A series of recent cyclones has moved and compacted the remaining thinner ice, which was already at a record low, and the extent is declining several months earlier than normal.
And on the opposite side the Bering Sea might go completely ice free about three months ahead of schedule because of continuous thinning over the last few years and changes in weather and current patterns. The area is already well below average extent and due for anomalously high, above freezing air temperatures for the rest of this week.
Alaska’s Bering Sea Lost a Third of Its Ice in Just 8 Days
n just eight days in mid-February, nearly a third of the sea ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s west coast disappeared. That kind of ice loss and the changing climate as the planet warms is affecting the lives of the people who live along the coast.
At a time when the sea ice should be growing toward its maximum extent for the year, it’s shrinking instead—the area of the Bering Sea covered by ice is now 60 percent below its average from 1981-2010.
“[Bering sea ice] is in a league by itself at this point,” said Richard Thoman, the climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service Alaska region. “And looking at the weather over the next week, this value isn’t going to go up significantly. It’s going to go down.”
LOL! He was already talking about the melting of the polar ice caps and global dimming way back then 😉
Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it’s been clear
How appropriate
“Here Comes the Sun” was written at the time when Apple was getting like school, where we had to go and be businessmen: ‘Sign this’ and ‘sign that.’ Anyway, it seems as if winter in England goes on forever, by the time spring comes you really deserve it. So one day I decided I was going to sag off Apple and I went over to Eric Clapton’s house. The relief of not having to go see all those dopey accountants was wonderful, and I walked around the garden with one of Eric’s acoustic guitars and wrote “Here Comes the Sun”.
Oh, 1969, Apple *Records*. The computer company was started in 1976…
Most here have little relation to the 1970’s, let alone the 1960’s.
I’m surprised they know of ‘Apple”.
Such diminished worlds– but it is what we have.
In the last 4 months, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska has had temperature deviations relative to the 1971-2000 averages of:
Nov. 2017 – +15.50 F
Dec. 2017 – +19.06 F
Jan. 2018 – +8.61 F
Feb. 2018 (Through Feb. 18) – +19.78 F
It’s a bit unusual to have such a large deviation for so long. The 4 month average deviation could be over 15 F above the 1971-2000 average.
You got it George, after 2020 the ice level gets dominated by weather more than climate until about 203o when it’s just baked Alaska. 🙂
New spies for old, new spies for old. Job vacancy coming up?
NAOM
We have all heard about the many problems declining fertility rates will cause due to the high burden of elderly and the low level of workers to support both the elderly and their particular country. Some governments have been raising the level of immigrants to fill the gap. But is all that even true or necessary. Maybe increasing automation (which will replace workers quickly) and increasing health with age will make all those assumptions about having less young people not a problem at all.
Possibly the depressed forecast of future problems from fertility decline is all wrong and twisting the knob of immigration now will cause a lot more problems in the future. Plus if things change economically in the future, the indigenous population tends to produce more children. So forecasting might be our biggest problem, not population changes.
Here is one of the depressed forecasts (appears to assume economic model will be the same in the future and that we need large numbers to progress technologically?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZeyYIsGdAA
Maybe increasing automation (which will replace workers quickly) and increasing health with age will make all those assumptions about having less young people not a problem at all.
I’m aware that Japanese already have them and I recently saw a study of how the Netherlands was doing the same with excellent results. I’m sure other advanced societies won’t be far behind. Seems the robots are friendlier and more patient than the human caretakers and the elderly quickly become attached to their robots…
Meet the robots caring for Japan’s aging population
I was thinking more along the lines of the much of general work force being replaced by automation within 15 years or so.
Fifteen (15) years is a long time in the robotics business:
CHINA’S TECH COMPANIES LEADING THE WAY WITH ROBOTICS
A report in Nikkei Asian Review said about 90 per cent of the personal robots on display at the IFA consumer electronics trade show, held in Berlin in September, were developed and made by Chinese companies. Siasun Robot & Automation Co of Shenyang, Liaoning province, is the largest of them, in terms of its market value of 33.5 billion yuan (£3.86 billion). Its products are now exported to more than 30 countries and regions, half of which are involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. Sensing the surging demand for such products and systems in industries such as healthcare, education and entertainment, China aims to have sales of service robots worth more than 30 billion yuan by 2020.
The competition for McDonald’s and Dairy Queen jobs is getting stiffer all the time. Next the doctors and car salesmen.
We are making people at the rate of 80 million per year, what will they do? I guess they need to chose from the list of 100 ways to reduce or sequester carbon in the Drawdown book to find their jobs.
The competition for McDonald’s and Dairy Queen jobs is getting stiffer all the time. Next the doctors and car salesmen.
We are making people at the rate of 80 million per year, what will they do?
Yes, that is true, however you also need to take into account the fact that McDonald’s is a global trans national corporation and issues such as climate change are global problems that can not be addressed on a national level. Yet we find ourselves living in a world where almost without exception that vast majority of people are looking backwards rather than trying to deal with the realities of the present. Automation and AI, are making almost all current human ‘JOBS’ obsolete, at the very time that we are adding 80 million humans to the planet every year. It doesn’t matter if you are a burger flipper, candle stick maker, accountant, economist, engineer or a medical doctor.
Here is a TED conversation from a year ago that might give pause for some thought about our collective dilemma.
Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide | Yuval Noah Harari
How do we make sense of today’s political divisions? In a wide-ranging conversation full of insight, historian Yuval Harari places our current turmoil in a broader context, against the ongoing disruption of our technology, climate, media — even our notion of what humanity is for. This is the first of a series of TED Dialogues, seeking a thoughtful response to escalating political divisiveness. Make time (just over an hour) for this fascinating discussion between Harari and TED curator Chris Anderson.
Yes, the competition is with machines, not people anymore. So changing the global climate together is a great place for all those “excess” human workers. Meaningful activities and work are much better for people, let the robots do the service work and heavy labor.
The national versus global political thing is mostly irrelevant now. We act globally, we spread knowledge and tech globally, we share food, energy and materials globally. We shatter pollution globally. Threats are global.
The nation centric political system is a throwback to previous times and needs to be updated in many cases.
There’s no shortage of work. It’s just a question of figuring out the social organization needed to suppport the doing of that work.
The developing world still needs more stuff: housing, transportation, water infrastructure, etc.
The whole world needs more healthcare, medical research, childcare, elder care, education at all ages.
Building of renewable energy, electric transportation, electric heating. A new service oriented, recycling oriented economy. Environmental cleanup.
People have been worrying about the end of work for centuries. The growth of labor productivity began to accelerate very roughly about 500 years ago, and people have been worrying about running out of jobs ever since.
There’s vast amounts of work still to be done.
There’s no shortage of work.
Which is not the same as well paying jobs for billions of people…
Somehow civilized societies will have to decouple the concept of useful, fulfilling and meaningful activities that benefit both the individual and the collective from the 19th century notion of jobs…
Like universal free healthcare coverage that already exists in most civilized progressive countries, humanity will need to come up with a global plan for providing universal basic needs.
To be clear there is no model for this kind of transition. We are in completely uncharted waters.
If we are still around it will all get worked out. 🙂
jobs is money.. money is prosperity.. prosperity is happyness.. its all connected, so that is why we celebrate the dignity of a job not sitting around on welfare..
I’ve been reading “1177bc, When Civilization Collapsed.” It really was the end of the (late bronze age) world then, and happened in a few decades. Many parallels with today: large states, global trading, shifting alliances, some staggeringly wealthy individuals, copper as a key good like oil now; then climate change, natural disasters, droughts, wars, famine, waves of migrants and no more civilization. Course it all happened in a relatively small area of the East Mediterranean, but that was the known world then. Some of the clay tablets found show people worrying, and they were right to.
Education equals job skills and social prosperity. Money is a means of exchange. Prosperity is security. Dignity is earned. Welfare is compassion. kokoe3 is a devious Russian bot.
Kokoe3, you really don’t have the slightest clue what I was talking about, do you?! Either that or you are a troll and being deliberately obtuse.
kokoe3 : “prosperity is happiness”
Prosperity will give you comfort but not happiness. If you are happy, ambition disappears. There is no even need for ambition of prosperity if you are happy.
Ambition simply means you are not happy the way you are. What dreams do you want to fulfill? That means the reality that you are living in is not giving you contentment, it is not enough; you want something more. Only a miserable mind wants something more.
In Australia:
EMISSIONS INCREASES APPROVED BY REGULATOR MAY WIPE OUT $260M OF DIRECT ACTION CUTS
“If all sites emitted to their newly approved level, it could add up to 22m tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year – 4% of Australia’s annual emissions…The biggest increases allowed under the safeguard mechanism have been for coalmining operations, including Whitehaven’s Maules Creek open cut mine in New South Wales, BM Alliance’s Broadmeadow mine in Queensland and Citic Pacific’s Sino Iron project in the Pilbara. Liquefied natural gas plants such as the projects of Chevron at Gorgon and Santos at Curtis Island have opened with approved emissions limits that are not offset elsewhere.”
Meanwhile another gem falls to bulldozer and chainsaw in name of progress:
PERU ENDS ERA OF ‘ROADLESS WILDERNESS’ IN ITS AMAZON RAINFORESTS
“Roads spread destruction and deforestation in the Amazon, now Peru, driven by neoliberal imperatives, plans a highway for one of the regions most sensitive forests.”
Apparently the Peruvians are no smarter than the Brazilians, Venezuelans, Colombians and most of the other South American countries that have political borders in the Amazonian rain forest.
Deforestation rates continue to rise unabated in this region.
It seems South Americans aren’t smarter than yeast or cyanobacteria either.
.
Less than 800 years to no forest cover worldwide at this rate of loss. To put this in perspective, China is increasing forest at a rapid rate (32 percent in 25 years), while the US and Russia are slightly positive over 25 years and Canada very slightly negative. However, at this rate Brazil could lose 40% of it’s forest cover over the next century. It has lost about 500,000 square kilometers of forest cover in the last 25 years. That is two Great Britain’s plus a little in 25 years (1990 -2015).
Russia, Brazil, Canada, USA and China are the largest forested nations in the world. Of those only Brazil is significantly negative, very negative.
Latin America is the big loser in the world. Mimicking the early actions of the US is not a good thing, we know better now. Or do we?
Of course we don’t know the future, forest loss could slow down or speed up. The large loss of primary forest is a major problem, since it really hurts biodiversity and rapidly increases species loss. Primary forest should be the first order of protection.
How nuclear weapons research revealed new climate threats
(Lawrence Livermore Lab’s increasingly powerful climate models have sounded a stark warning for California.)
Nice find, thanks. I see the climate models are still chasing reality. If there is any reality to the findings it is at least consistent with a continued drying of the western US. I wonder what other effects the loss of sea ice is causing and will cause.
Worst Drought in 1,000 Years Predicted for American West The chances of a 35-year or longer “megadrought” striking the Southwest and central Great Plains by 2100 are above 80 percent if the world stays on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists from NASA, Columbia University, and Cornell University report in a study published Thursday in the new open-access journal Science Advances.
BIODIVERSITY LOSS RAISES RISK OF ‘EXTINCTION CASCADES’
“New research shows that the loss of biodiversity can increase the risk of “extinction cascades,” where an initial species loss leads to a domino effect of further extinctions….
With extinction rates at their highest levels ever and numerous species under threat due to human activity, the findings are a further warning about the consequences of eroding biodiversity.”
Sadly, by the time humans realize they are just animals and only a part of a giant web of life it will only be after the losses occur and the impacts threaten human existence. Sometimes the most obvious facts are completely outside the ability of most humans to grasp.
Yup,
‘100,000 ORANGUTANS’ KILLED IN 16 YEARS
“Deforestation, driven by logging, oil palm, mining and paper mills, continues to be the main culprit. But the research, published in the journal Current Biology, also revealed that animals were “disappearing” from areas that remained forested. This implied large numbers of orangutans were simply being slaughtered, said lead researcher Maria Voigt of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany.”
Sick, very sick.
Maybe the products made from that area should have the photos of dead orangutans imprinted on each one so the buyers know what they paid for.
Caption underneath “By buying this product you helped kill these amazing creatures.”
.
Model ensembles are in good agreement about the AO crashing down to very negative levels over the next week. This will usher in another round of global cooling for the Northern Hemisphere.
Driving this is a massive SSW event, now also being noticed by the European climatologists.
Get ready everyone. The #BeastFromTheEast is on its way. Cross model agreement for a severe cold spell with loads of #heavysnow too. Some uppers approaches-17c 850hpa! Please share and follow for updates here and @StormchaserUKEU our partners.#uksnow #ExtremeCold
I came across that phenomenon a few weeks ago when examining state temperature anomalies. I wonder if it is due to those regions being controlled by the Gulf of Mexico. It may not be that it is being cooled more, maybe the region started out warmer and is stabilized by a north flow of air off the Gulf region, which is what is happening right now. There is a 24C drop in temp west of the Mississippi.
Tennessee temperature anomaly in degree F.
Every body here knows about methane and global warming.
But how many of us know methane is also the basis of a tourism business?
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster, Putin played you by employing Republican hate politics for losers.
“Indictment: Russians also tried to help Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein presidential campaigns
It turns out Donald Trump wasn’t the only candidate the Russians allegedly tried to help during the 2016 presidential campaign.
A 37-page indictment resulting from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation shows that Russian nationals and businesses also worked to boost the campaigns of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Green party nominee Jill Stein in an effort to damage Democrat Hillary Clinton.”
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster is full of AppleButter. Here comes a hateful applebutter Republican HRC rant.
HRC is the loser, and everybody lacking principles enough to support her, rather than Sanders, helped her lose.
Children blame their losses on the other team, on the opposition, never on their own shortcomings.
Adults look at their own shortcomings when they lose, and resolve to do better.
IF you were better informed, rather than too stupid to distinguish shit from apple butter, you would know that the historical goal of the Russian propaganda machine, all the way back to the birth of the old USSR, has been to do whatever it could to weaken the West.
That’s still the goal, you little nincompoop.
The idea is to weaken the West. Period.
This is such old and commonplace knowledge that the only people who don’t possess it are nincompoop liberals who used to go around pooh pooing about conservatives with more sense being concerned about the commies.
Now the fact remains that HRC was such a lousy candidate she lost to the lousiest candidate the R’s have ever run , period.
I have never and never will defend Trump. I just tell it like it is, no matter the subject matter, as best I know how.
You’re only a little partisan worm unwilling to ever consider even the possibility you put your money on the wrong horse.
And I’m still waiting for anybody who wants to engage me in a defense of her ethical record, lol.
We can start with Cattle Gate, since the members of this forum are generally mathematically literate.
Now the truth is gradually emerging about why the Russians are so eager to help Trump, since it’s a payback time, in addition to the fact that they undoubtedly realized that if he won, he would be a disaster as president.
He’s been in bed with them since back when, one way or another, but like HRC, he’s good at covering his tracks, at least to the extent that his partisans can pretend he’s clean.
I will continue to do what I can, like any good coach brought in to help a losing team get back to winning again.
The first thing the D’s need to do, in terms of winning back the WH, next time, is run a candidate with half way decent polling numbers, one without a baggage train reaching back to the earliest days, and one that doesn’t take the people who are the heart of the party for granted….. one who doesn’t hold the core people of the D party in contempt. One who doesn’t hang out with banksters, instead of campaigning at least once or twice in the states that USED to be the HEART of the party, lol,.
And one who isn’t too busy raking in countless millions of slush money from scum bag foreigners doing business with the federal government in general and the state department in particular, while sec of state. Sure, it was all free of expectations of favorable treatment. Donations to her family slush fund crashed like a rock after she lost.
Face up to it, you backed a loser.
Just about every big D Democrat I know well now,personally, excepting a few gray hair women who worship HRC, is now willing to admit privately that they made a big mistake in backing her.
That mistake won’t be repeated, lol. I’m doing my part to make sure of it.
Thanks for your help.
The more you rant like a child, the quicker anybody paying attention will give my comments due consideration.
Mac,
You and HB don’t seem to be getting anywhere. You seem to be talking about the primary vote, and he seems to be talking about the general election vote.
Would it make sense to make that distinction, and separate the two issues?
“that the historical goal of the Russian propaganda machine, all the way back to the birth of the old USSR, has been to do whatever it could to weaken the West”
Hey Applebutter breathe, it’s the tough sanctions Obama and HRC imposed on Russia for invading the Ukraine behind the election propaganda you fell for. Jill Stein, who you voted for was to busy having dinner with Putin to put on her pantsuit and grow a backbone. Jill was weak on Russia, Trump is compromised and Bernie was to busy with his fairy tale give away free healthcare and college. Your Republican HRC hate overwhelmed you to see the big picture.
AppleButter Breathe (R)
Clinton had the most experience to move the country forward after Obama. She had seen how the executive office works first hand. Four years at Sec. of State, 8 years in the senate and 8 years as first lady. She would have done more good in her first month for your jobless drug addicted friends than Trump will ever do in his life time. She kicked Bernie’s ass by 3 million American(not Russian) Voters in the primary.
Where is your outrage on 130 White House employees without a security clearance ? Show me one comment you have made on the subject. Because you uses to get a boner over HRC’s emails. How times have changed. Now you can’t even get it up.
“She kicked Bernie’s ass by 3 million American(not Russian) Voters in the primary.”
A little less than her count of victory in California.
Subtract California, and the other 49 states had a Trump victory.
But Sanders would of won easily, if not for Dim interference.
I could care less, as I didn’t vote (being a California resident -I was actually living in Mexico, it was meaningless anyway).
(Kamala Harris was a much superior candidate– but she had a easy victory)
Anyway, as from someone on the Left, in matters little.
Anyone committed to reformist politics at this point is not paying attention.
Not a registered Dim, the primary was off limits.
“I didn’t vote”
A lot of squeak coming from that training wheel. Let me know when your voice counts.
OldMac isn’t looking for any help with his big boy overalls.
HRC’s emails are, so far as any body with a working brain is concerned, obvious evidence of a powerful desire to work in the shadows, hiding things that ought to be part of the public record from the public.
I simply can’t imagine the decibel level of the howls of D outrage had a REPUBLICAN candidate who was holding such high office routinely used a secret home brew email system for government business. Yet most Democrats were more than willing to sacrifice their principles in order to defend her.
Anybody who BELIEVES otherwise is a goddamned idiot, and any body who pretends otherwise is simply a partisan liar.
Now as far as reporting on the many shortcomings of the Trump administration, I probably post about as many links and comments about them as anybody here.
But you see I don’t find it necessary to take care of that chore all alone. Some other forum members also contribute links about the Trump crowd’s crooked dealings.
At one time or another I have posted comments to the effect that Trump makes HRC look like a girl scout, lol.
HB – “Show me one comment”
AppleButter – “I don’t find it necessary”, “At one time or another I have posted comments”, “other forum members also contribute”
That’s what I call AppleButter soft and fake outrage
Environmentalists Say They’re Averting Climate Disaster. Conservatives Say It’s Terrorism.
The post-9/11 rhetoric vilifying environmentalists is making a comeback.
Foster hadn’t killed anyone. He didn’t even injure anyone when, on Oct. 11, 2016, he put on a white hard hat and neon-yellow safety vest, grabbed some bolt cutters, and clipped the chain locking a fenced section of the Keystone Pipeline in Walhalla, North Dakota. Once inside the fence, Foster cranked a giant wheel-like valve until it closed, temporarily stopping the flow of tar sands oil.
“In order to preserve life as we know it, and civilization, and give us a fair chance and our kids a fair chance, I’m taking action as a citizen,” Foster told another activist, Sam Jessup, who live-streamed the action. “I am duty-bound.”
In October, a judge convicted Foster and Jessup of felonies ― including criminal mischief and conspiracy to commit criminal mischief ― carrying maximum sentences of 11 to 26 years in prison. Earlier this month, the judge sentenced Foster to three years in prison; Jessup received two years of probation. (Other valve turners have faced up to 10 years in prison and $20,000 in fines.)
WARMING COULD BREACH 1.5C WITHIN FIVE YEARS: UK MET OFFICE
Background warming and natural cycles could push warming beyond 1.5C, within a decade of nations agreeing to try and keep it below that limit. “We should remember that the Paris Agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion,” said Dr Doug Smith from the Met Office Hadley Centre. Prof Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at the Met Office, commented: “The global pattern of heat would be different to a more sustained exceeding of the Paris 1.5C threshold. Early, temporary excursions above this level of warming are likely to coincide with a large El Niño event in the Pacific.”
Oh, those guys that seem to have ignored the Arctic and Antarctic in estimates of global temperature. We will see, the Arctic is already above 1.5C. I think the Met is in for a big surprise, if they ever actually measure global temperature.
Hedging their bets I see.
NASA shows that global average temps have already crossed 1 degree C and seasonal anomalies are as high as 2C globally. Land based global anomaly is at 1.8C. Northern extratropics (23.6N – 90N) has already hit 2C average anomaly.
Food for thought.
Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson:
“History is written by the victors, but it’s victims who write the memoirs.”
“Most people, when directly confronted by evidence that they are wrong, do not change their point of view or course of action but justify it even more tenaciously. Even irrefutable evidence is rarely enough to pierce the mental armor of self-justification.”
Some of the people who stumble into this forum who make foolish arguments, or poorly informed arguments, aren’t really trolls, although most are.
Some of them are the kind so aptly described in the quote.
Some of us regulars have made up our minds about certain things, and absolutely refuse to consider the possibility that they might be wrong.
I won’t mention any names, but I’m one of them, most likely.
One of my problems is that I’m like everybody else who is wrong under such circumstances.. unable to see that I AM the one in the wrong, lol.
Some of us refuse to believe new tech such as batteries can get to be cheap enough to use them on the grand scale.
Some of us refuse to believe that just because something was believed to be impossible yesterday, and even today, it will always be impossible, such as traveling to the stars.
Sam Harris:
“You can do what you decide to do — but you cannot decide what you will decide to do.”
“We do not know what we intend to do until the intention itself arises. To understand this is to realize that we are not the authors of our thoughts and actions in the way that people generally suppose.”
“You are not controlling the storm, and you are not lost in it. You are the storm.”
WB Irvine:
“Your primary desire, says Epictetus, should be your desire not to be frustrated by forming desires you won’t be able to fulfill.”
“We humans are unhappy in large part because we are insatiable; after working hard to get what we want, we routinely lose interest in the object of our desire. Rather than feeling satisfied, we feel a bit bored, and in response to this boredom, we go on to form new, even grander desires.”
“..the easiest way for us to gain happiness is to learn how to want the things we already have.”
Ori Brafman:
When things go wrong, we can either apply a short-term, Band-Aid solution or remember that in the grand scheme of things, it’s only a minor misstep.
Along a similar vein, I recently watched an intresting Youtube video of a talk by Neil deGrasse Tyson:
Neil deGrasse Tyson: Why a Colony on Mars is Unlikely to Happen
The “related videos” included some stuff on “flat earthers” which I watched and was dumbfounded that in 2018 there are still people who believe that the earth is flat and all evidence to the contrary is contrived. I find it incredible that these people actually try to logically argue that the earth is flat despite the difficulty in explaining many facets of their flat earth relative to observed reality. Some people it seems live in a fact free bubble.
On the other hand, most of the people who frequent this blog firmly believe that oil and ultimately all fossil fuels are a finite resource, the formation of which took millions of years. There are folks who believe in a literal interpretation of scripture and thus hold the idea that the world is six thousand years or some similar number of years old. I don’t suppose that they will ever be convinced that the ideas about the formation of oil are even close to reality. This means there is a giant chasm between those who believe that FF are finite and those who posit that FF are provided by God and therefore limitless.
I have a belief shared with a few other people that vitamin C is sort of a miracle vitamin and that it can be used to treat many maladies instead of using pharmaceuticals in many cases. This belief does not exist in a vacuum but was initiated by discovering the work of scientists and doctors on the Internet. It included reading sections of a book by a biochemist by the name of Irwin Stone, available on-line: The Healing Factor – Vitamin C Against Disease. I also looked at this Clinical Guide to the Use of Vitamin C abbreviated, sumarized and annotated by one Lendon H. Smith, M.D., based on work done by one Frederick R. Klenner, M.D., including successful treatment of patients showing symptoms of the onset of polio during a polio outbreak in the late spring of 1949. I read The Origin of the 42-Year Stonewall of Vitamin C where I found out about this polio outbreak and Dr. Klenner’s methods for treatment. I read about the work of other proponents of Vitamin C therapy like the late Robert F. Cathcart III, M.D. and Abram Hoffer, M.D.. Cathcart is particularly controversial having been deleted from Wikipedia since 2007. He was a staunch advocate of extremely high doses of vitamin c for treatment of all manner of illnesses.
In adopting these opinions I may well be engaging in the same sort of behavior that I am ascribing to flat earthers. The thing is there are still doctors who believe as I do in the therapeutic use of vitamin C but they are rare. There is also the case where a vitamin C proponent who also has a law degree, Thomas Levy, M.D., went to New Zealand to assist a family with getting the medical facilities there to use vitamin C, a situation the family credits with saving the life of Aukland farmer Alan Smith. There are stories, web sites and videos featuring some of names I have mentioned and while the medical community claims to have debunked the vitamin C therapy idea, vitamin C proponents claim that the studies debunking the vitamin C therapies are flawed. In the final analysis, my personal experience using vitamin C has made me a believer. Does that place me in the same category as “flat earthers”? I view the scientific arguments being made by vitamin C proponents as scientifically valid. Am I just displaying the same sort of bias that I am attributing to “flat earthers”.
When you add the climate science versus the climate change deniers, it get’s even more challenging. Who is right? Who is living in a bubble, a reality of their own construction? Of course I think that I’m on the right side of all these “debates” but, so does everybody else including people I consider bat shit crazy for subscribing to their beliefs. They probably think the same about me.
When and how will the “debates” be settled in this age of manufactured realities?
Vitamin C is a difficult question. There’s no question that the mainstream medical establishment is deeply biased against it. It’s very difficult to get good information about it.
A recent good quality study found that vitamin C was an important component of treatment for sepsis, which kills 400,000 per year in the US. It was published in the journal “Chest”.
http://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)62564-3/fulltext
For those who wonder why the medical establishment might be deeply biased against vitamin C, the principle of “Cui bono” (for whose benefit) applies. I am not suggesting that there is any conspiracy among medical professionals and drug companies to “fight” vitamin C but, each player could independently take steps to defend their own livelihood or existence by downplaying whatever information comes out about the benefits or efficacy of vitamin C as a treatment.
One aspect could be a difficulty accepting that a simple, natural, non-patentable substance could be used to replace a drug or method that involved thousand of hours of research and development and the expenditure of ridiculous amounts of money. Considering the amounts of money involved, I have little difficulty accepting reasons why drug companies or doctors would want to downplay the efficacy of vitamin C treatments.
My point is, how can I be so sure I am not deserving of the same level of ridicule and disdain I hold for “flat earthers” or believers in abiotic oil?
All you can do is read the research and use your own best judgement. Medscape is very useful.
I personally think that Pauling went a little overboard, but that he did have some good ideas. I take 2-3 grams of C per day – it very likely helps somewhat, and it’s very low risk.
Vitamin D is similar – the evidence still isn’t quite as strong as one would like but there’s a lot of epidemiology behind it. It’s very likely to be pretty helpful, and it’s also very low risk.
The only portion of THE ESTABLISHMENT that is worthy of our full trust is that part of it which deals purely in the physical sciences such as physics, and math.
And even in the hard sciences, sometimes you have to wait a while for certain old guys to die, so as to make room for new blood. In the softer fields, you may have to wait generations for progress to happen, once a mistaken theory is set in stone.
You can’t put your full trust in anybody else. Engineers signed off on the design of Fukushima for instance, although they are well trained in physics and math.
I could relate other instances, as could most of us here, where the establishment has been not only wrong but grossly wrong for a long time, before finally acknowledging evidence that was there and obvious all along, and admitting its errors.
Right now I’m in the middle of a book that in my estimation will upend the conventional wisdom about the various health problems referred to as dementia’s.
It’s titled The End of Azheimer’s and it was written not by quacks peddling miracle cures but rather by a team of doctors and researchers with a lifetime each of experience at the top of their profession, holding positions at elite universities. The medical ESTABLISHMENT still scoffs at them.
Just about all of us here appear to be older men, and that means virtually all of us are at risk of dementia, excepting only those of us who die relatively young for other reasons. It OUGHT to be MANDATORY reading but the technical parts will be over the heads of some of us, those without any training in biology. The rest, however, are accessible to everybody, and the accessible parts explain what you can do to cut the odds of being a victim by half or better.
Now here’s a free jewel, a nice fat gold nugget, to be enjoyed the next time you have a few minutes to read for pleasure.
A number of great writers think this is the funniest story they have ever read. I’m not much of a writer, but I’m one hell of a reader, and I agree.
It’s a flat earth story.
If anybody reads it and thinks he wasted his time, and posts a comment to that effect, I will give up posting comments here for two full days by the clock.
http://www.telelib.com/authors/K/KiplingRudyard/prose/DiversityOfCreatures/villagevoted.html
Love all these quotes OFM.
Especially that first Sam Harris quote.
It’s an apt summation of everything in Daniel Kahnemann’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow”
“Battery storage leaves fossil fuels and regulators in state of inertia”
Latest article from Australia’s Renew Economy site:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/battery-storage-leaves-fossil-fuels-and-regulators-in-state-of-inertia-57198/
“In a study on recent faults in the Irish grid, it found that 360MW of batteries could have provided the same amount of power, after 0.1 seconds, as the inertial response of 3000MW of synchronous generators.”
Exciting times!
The Regan star wars rail Gun prototype was powered by warehouses of car batteries feeding a giant inductor. The limiting factor is the internal resistance of the cells which you can keep lowering by more Parallel connections
EU Tells Trump: No Paris Climate Deal, No Free Trade
France’s foreign affairs minister Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne told the French Parliament last week that his country will insist that TTIP never be revived if Trump carries through on his promise to leave the Paris Agreement.
“One of our main demands is that any country who signs a trade agreement with EU should implement the Paris Agreement on the ground,” Lemoyne said. “No Paris Agreement, no trade agreement. The U.S. knows what to expect.”
Given that every country has veto power over new free trade deals, this threat alone would be enough to kill TTIP. Among EU member states, France has been the most skeptical about the free trade deal.
The EU recently concluded a free trade deal with Japan that includes language on the Paris Agreement, and such language is already in drafts of a free trade deal with the Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2018/02/08/eu-tells-trump-no-paris-climate-deal-no-free-trade/#231f227f37c7
Boy, is this a volatile market on the Dow.
So far, so good—- but I have a uneasy feeling.
Dennis – and any interested parties – might want to read today’s (2/13/18) editorial from the Boston Globe concerning the LNG shipment from Yamal into Boston the other day.
The recent shunning of Northern Pass, next spring’s retirement of the ~700Mw Pilgrim nuke, and the moratorium of wind plants in Maine all point to a squeezing of affordable electricity in New England during future cold snaps.
The fact that the newspaper folks seem to be encompassing a somewhat broader view in these affairs is offset, to a degree, by the proximity of severe negative consequences if prompt actions are not taken.
“Maine’s governor imposed a moratorium on new wind energy projects in the state on Wednesday out of fear that the projects could harm the state’s tourism industry. At the same time, Gov. Paul LePage (R) is supporting efforts by the Trump administration to open the Atlantic Coast, including waters off the coast of Maine, to oil and gas drilling.”
“LePage, a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, has adopted many positions against renewable energy since taking office. During his two terms as governor, he has been one of the nation’s most outspoken climate deniers, targeting anti-pollution, clean energy and efficiency programs. He has also argued that Maine could benefit from the effects of climate change, even as its shrimping fishery collapsed in part due to higher water temperatures.”
https://thinkprogress.org/maine-governor-imposes-wind-moratorium-413f7303fe49/
LePage is even more embarrassing as a governor than Trump is as President.
Only another year before sensible government returns to Maine.
The Pilgrim nuclear plant is being shut down because it is not economic due to low natural gas prices driving down wholesale electricity prices.
Increasing pipeline capacity to the Northeast is one possibility, but Massachusetts Law needs to be changed to accomplish that. That is up to the legislators in Massachusetts.
Good summary of New England Grid at link below
https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix
It’s pretty clear from the demand curve that NE has a decent amount of solar on the customer side. The ISO reporting doesn’t do a good job of showing that.
It has a nice discussion of Demand Side Management, but doesn’t discuss how much that could be expanded…
If you live in Florida, doctors say climate change is already affecting your health
(to our Florida comrades)
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article199310404.html
Also, more kids with guns and I’m so sick of the “thoughts and prayers” for the dead children. This sick stuff only happens in the US. The terrorists at the NRA were right on form tweeting this pic for valentines day…
Yep, ‘Merikins should be careful with guns (we are violent adolescents).
While guns and deaths have a correlation:
In 2010, 67% of all homicides in the U.S. were committed using a firearm.[7] In 2012, there were 8,855 total firearm-related homicides in the US, with 6,371 of those attributed to handguns. In 2012, 64% of all gun-related deaths in the U.S. were suicides.[9] In 2010, there were 19,392 firearm-related suicides, and 11,078 firearm-related homicides in the U.S. In 2010, 358 murders were reported involving a rifle while 6,009 were reported involving a handgun; another 1,939 were reported with an unspecified type of firearm. Firearms were used to kill 13,286 people in the U.S. in 2015, excluding suicide. Approximately 1.4 million people have been killed using firearms in the U.S. between 1968 and 2011, equivalent to a top 10th largest U.S. city in 2016, falling between the populations of San Antonio and Dallas, Texas.
In the United States, areas with higher levels of gun ownership also have higher rates of gun assault and gun robbery.
This is generally true with other countries, but not always.
Yeah, Florida just got its St Valentines Day Massacre. Same troubled shooter, same military weapon.
NAOM
18th school shooting in USA this year – WTF?
Unfortunately freedom is not free. Remember as well “shall not be infringed” is a fundamental law of the land.
Hand grenades are arms. All types of bombs are arms. Chemical weapons are arms. Is it the law of the land that we can build bombs or chemical weapons that are meant to kill masses of people?
Should we be allowed to keep weapons that are designed, not for hunting but designed only to kill masses of people in one killing event? You know, weapons like the AK47?
Answer that goddamn question Charles! And what kind of speech are you planning on giving at the next meeting of your well-armed militia? After all, that is what the Second Amendment is all about, a well-armed militia being necessary.
Fuck you!
And the moron at the top with tiny fingers a BIG nuclear button!
1) That amendment was designed to try to ensure that the general populace always had the means to raise a militia that could resist a takeover of government by another bunch of psychopathic, money-grubbing, uncaring, elitist fuckheads. In that it pretty obviously has failed.
2) It was not an original idea. It came from 17th century English common law and the Bill of Rights. England and the rest of the western world decided they should move on from those sort of ideas with the enlightenment and the age of reason. Probably you wouldn’t be very fond of that sort of thing as it was led by a bunch of forward thinking scientists and philosophers. However amongst them, and at the least heavily influenced by them, were all the authors of your constitution and first set of amendments
3) Go fuck yourself … or one of your AR15s if you wish, luckily for you, you have the freedom to choose.
That amendment was designed to try to ensure that the general populace always had the means to raise a militia that could resist a takeover of government
Are you sure? I had the impression it was designed to ensure that the states could retain their equivalent at the time of the National Guard. I think it was an alternative to a national standing army, which was seen as a threat to freedom. The US only developed a standing army after WWII, and it kind’ve looks like the Founding Fathers had a point…
This is sick, last year in the US mass killings killed more than 4 9/11’s. After just one 9/11 we lost a lot freedom at the airport and unleashed the NSA to bug all our communication. But it’s to much to ask to check someones background at a gun show before selling them an assault riffle – BS! We need to bring back the assault weapons ban, ban bump stocks, and ban armor piecing ammo as a start.
Armor piercing ammo is only for killing cops. I’ve never seen a deer wearing armor, why do you need that shit? Don’t you think Blue lives matter? Or are you with the NRA and want to make sure criminals can kill cops?
I’m sure you would love to see your children gunned down in the name of freedom.
NAOM
This European comedy sketch explains how the world sees America’s gun problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=a-o9pwWUzz0
vpro zondag met lubach
There’s something going on in the world. A situation we cannot ignore any longer and we need to address it. Say nay to NRA (nonsensical rifle addiction).
From the creator of ‘Netherlands Second’ and ‘Westeros the Serie’s.
To be fair, if you look at that list it includes a school security guard whose firearm accidentally discharged, and a bullet that hit a school’s exterior in the middle of the night.
Those are the most extreme “oh, really?” examples, but half the list is incidents that don’t fit the image we imagine when we hear “school shooting”.
That still leaves a staggering amount of legitimate school shootings so early in a new year, but facts matter and must always be maintained whether they support my views or not.
“That still leaves a staggering amount of legitimate school shootings so early in a new year,”
Rather ironic choice of words there…
You find a firearm accidentally discharged in a school and a bullet hitting a school acceptable? How many pounds of force to pull a trigger? What if that bullet had been during the day. Both incidents are totally unacceptable.
NAOM
It’s not a matter of acceptability, but rather having a respect of the inherent dangers of any kind of power tool or personal protective device. Yes, accidents can still happen, but they can be minimized by learning proper handling techniques to ensure both you and your weapon’s safety.
Well sounds like “learning proper handling techniques” wasn’t applied.
NAOM
Just Trump’s America is in the process of being made great again, please excuse all the dust, debris and a few extra bodies here and there!
Could be true but one year of Trump has had a far greater negative effect on the mental health of all Americans.
Hey Fred, late stage capitalism was never going to be fun.
It just Florida seems to relish in the sick aspects of our capital madness!
Florida is not all that much better or worse than other parts of our ‘Great Divided States’. This is Florida too, he was watching me diving in a school of gray snapper.
.
Kool!
Nothing agains Florida.
I lived in Guam, and a abundance of friends were from Florida.
You might enjoy this
http://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-43044592
NAOM
While looking for shallow water to fish in, the heron found instead the Atlantic Ocean and was totally upset about how evolution had not made it’s legs long enough for the biggest fish pond ever.
Maybe it didn’t hear the call to fly north, cuz it’s, you know, hard of heron…
You’ll egret that!
Owl talk and no action!
This thread has taken a swift tern for the worse.
At least we’re leaving no tern unstoned…
To be honest Nick, for an oil oriented board, I’m a little disappointed that nobody made a petrel pun, and that’s a little hard to swallow.
Hey, he should have evolved into a pelican… tough noogies!
At least the herons come back to the lake, there are still some fish to eat. No frogs or snakes left. Ice fishermen have depleted too, along with the fish.
The screech owls have not shown up, first time in years.
Black birds are back again, for the 60 degree weather which seems to happen every month of the year now.
Was just up in the mountains, 60F at 2000 feet above sea level and no sign of ice or snow anywhere in mid-February. 41N latitude, well inland from the ocean.
It has been feeling almost summer like down here in South Florida. Highs in the low 80s overnight lows in the low 70s. Today at least it was clear and dry. Last summer wet bulb temperatures were close to lethal on more than a few occasions.
I appreciate your nature pics, Fred, including that underwater orange thing in a previous thread.
Although similar pics could be pulled up from online, of course it’s the personal aspect that makes a difference.
I live downtown (Halifax) and recently decided to see if some sort of ‘communion’ with some local birds could be generated without the use of food- an experiment.
This morning, I had the usual couple of crows on the electrical wires outside my window upstairs and my bike was locked on a pole on the sidewalk just below them.
As I unlocked my bike, I looked up at them looking down at me, and said good morning in my own language, along with a few words about the weather or whatever, and as I was just pulling away with the bike, they crowed back, to which I answered in a poor version of their language.
They seem to be intrigued by my whistles to the starlings in the nearby tree as well.
When the crows land on the wire, I sometimes open the window upstairs and say hello.
SHELL, THE WORLD’S SECOND-BIGGEST OIL COMPANY, IS EXPANDING ITS BET ON RENEWABLE ENERGY.
https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/163734/shells-pivot-renewables-sharpens-california-deal/
No more than 42 years to 2C. Well, not counting the increasing feedbacks.
If you start from 1850, it’s only 32 years to 2C…
Good point.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/14/german-cities-to-trial-free-public-transport-to-cut-pollution
German cities to trial free public transport to cut pollution
Plan to be tested in five cities in effort to meet EU air pollution targets and avoid big fines
“Car nation” Germany has surprised neighbours with a radical proposal to reduce road traffic by making public transport free, as Berlin scrambles to meet EU air pollution targets and avoid big fines.
The move comes just over two years after Volkswagen’s devastating “dieselgate” emissions cheating scandal unleashed a wave of anger at the auto industry, a keystone of German prosperity.
“We are considering public transport free of charge in order to reduce the number of private cars,” three ministers including the environment minister, Barbara Hendricks, wrote to EU environment commissioner Karmenu Vella in the letter seen by AFP Tuesday.
I once worked for a large UK computer company. If you worked outside London you got a company car, if you worked in central London, as I did, you got free travel passes for London Transport. That worked out very much better than driving even though this was some years ago. Several years later, I worked for a different company where I had a company car but spent most of my time out of London. One day I had a call to make, early morning, in a part of London I knew to be packed with little parking at that time. I parked at a suitable tube station, on the outskirts, and tubed in and back. Boy, did I catch it from the boss for not using my car! Nothing seemed to persuade him that it was far quicker and got me back , available much sooner than sitting in traffic jams for hours (probably took half the time). No, I should take my car as I might need it!
Attitudes to cars in cities need to change. Free transport is one way, while cutting available parking is another. However mistakes can be made as I have experienced driving many, in city, miles because of poorly thought out traffic schemes that divert you away from where you are trying to get to (eg 7 miles to travel 1/4 mile from car park to pick up equipment).
NAOM
It’s hard to impossible to predict what politicians, our leaders will do, but it’s safe enough to say that what happens economically will have as much to do with their decisions as any other factor.
And politicians will decide on what new agricultural technologies are permitted.
Genetic engineering of crops and domestic animals does present some risks, but the risks are apparently low to moderate, in relation to the possible pay off in increased food production….. and people in modern times aren’t going to starve quietly in place.
Whatever CAN be done to increase food production, so as to buy more time for the population to level off and begin declining is probably worth doing, given the potential cost of NOT doing it.
And Mother Nature is going to go right on engineering new plants and animals whether we like it or not.
http://www.theeagle.com/landandlivestockpost/agrilifetoday/outcrossing-between-johnsongrass-sorghum-studied/article_e0b2732b-68bb-56d1-9e96-b507a2bd4b52.html
Genes have ways of packing up and moving and taking up quarters in new neighborhoods, without any help from us, although the chances of a successful natural viable hybrid are of course greatly increased when we put in large fields of similar and closely related crops within the distances that pollen can carried by wind, insects, or and farmers, who inadvertently haul various pests as well as weed seed and so forth from one place to another on equipment and shoe leather.
Arctic above 80N is starting out warmer than average, similar to the two previous years.
Seems offshore wind farms are good for fishing.
https://phys.org/news/2018-02-underwater-video-marine-life-farm.html
Underwater video shows marine life growing at wind farm
February 15, 2018 by Philip Marcelo
Offshore wind proponents are touting new undersea footage that suggests a vibrant marine habitat is growing around the nation’s first offshore wind farm—a five-turbine operation off Rhode Island’s waters.
Offshore wind energy and fishing thrive together
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=9BFa84LION0
American Wind Energy Association
Published on Feb 14, 2018
After a year of operation, it’s clear that the fishing community and offshore wind near Block Island are thriving together. Each offshore wind turbine supports giant shellfish communities, which creates a healthy marine ecosystem.
America’s first offshore project, the Block Island Wind Farm, was completed in late 2016. Block Island residents, including fishermen, have been pleased with the results. Electricity rates are down, tourism is up, and the island has access to high speed internet for the first time because of the project.
The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) and the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind (SIOW), based at the University of Delaware, released this video that features never-before-seen underwater footage of fish feeding at America’s first offshore wind farm, as well as testimonials from local recreational fishermen and charter captains.
Learn more: https://www.awea.org/BlockIslandOffsh…
Says video not available.
Strange! Just clicked the Youtube link and it plays. Have you tried playing the embedded video link in the article? Where are you located? Maybe it is a local issue.
Yes, YouTube works but the article link does not. It comes up with “Not Found
We’re sorry, the resource you requested is no longer available or has moved to a new location.” I checked the site media and did not find it and I also tried two different web browsers.
Never mind, I found it under
https://www.awea.org/BlockIslandOffshoreWindFishingVideo
article turns out to reference the same YouTube video. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/11/australias-solar-power-boom-could-almost-double-capacity-in-a-year-analysts-say
The first few paragraphs.:
A record-breaking month of rooftop installations and a flood of large-scale solar farms could almost double Australia’s solar power capacity in a single year, industry analysts say.
A massive solar energy boom is being predicted for 2018, after an unprecedented number of industrial solar farms were approved by the New South Wales and Queensland governments last year.
Last month also became the biggest January on record for rooftop installations, according to the renewables website RenewEconomy and industry analysts SunWiz.
South Australia announces grants worth $8.7m for pumped hydro storage
Read more
With 111MW of new panels, it saw a 69% rise compared with the same month last year and became one of the top five months ever – largely driven by low installation costs and a boost in commercial uptake.
At the same time, nearly 30 new industrial solar farms are scheduled to come on line.
NSW approved 10 solar farm projects last year – twice as many as the year before – and has approved another in 2018. Queensland currently has 18 large-scale projects under construction, which is the most in the country.
The new farms could be operational within the year, according to John Grimes, the chief executive of the Smart Energy Council.
“These solar farms can be built within a matter of weeks,” he said. “They’re really quick and simple.”
I’m hoping somebody here knows how much it costs in Australia to install a typical residential solar system there. I would also like to hear something about Aussie building codes, and what it costs there to upgrade an old house, compared to what it costs here in the states.
Since most of the country seems to be very dry nearly year around, it should be really easy to upgrade the insulation in an older house, given there shouldn’t be much if any problems with condensation.
Another thing I’m interested in finding out, if I can, is how fast the prices of super efficient refrigerators and such are coming down in Australia.
This kind of refrigerator is still outrageously expensive here in the states, although it obviously doesn’t cost all that much more to build one, especially as the number manufactured increases.
The last time I found anything comparing the cost of a turn key system here in the USA with the cost in Germany, a couple of years ago, the Germans were doing residential installations for HALF what they cost here in the states.
Yair . . .
Hi OFM. This is one outfit of many supplying gear.
As far as I know there are no engineering requirements to installing a system, they just use approved components an screw them on the roof . . . my little 12 panel 10 KWhr a day job was installed in about three hours.
http://hellosolar.com.au/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIquuz-fSp2QIVS42PCh0cUAYFEAAYASAAEgKM0vD_BwE
Early morning thoughts…
.
We may hit 10 billion, but it may be more like smashing into the ceiling from a trampoline launch just before things go through the floor.
In any case, I’m unsure it is that 10 billion cannot be sustained per se, but that it almost certainly cannot with the current technoindustrial status-quo footprint.
In order to, let’s say, create a safety net after the trampoline and before the floor, we’d probably have to look at ‘technology’ from a strictly biological standpoint and start doing and experimenting with the sorts of things along the lines of my other post about microbes, specifically, as an example, with regard to the bold paragraph.
While I’m unsure, this sort of thing may be along the lines of a few approaches, such as rewilding, green anarchy, permaculture, and circular/doughnut/steadystate economics.
Dark Kitchen: Making Friends with Microbes
Hi Caelan,
You’re dead on, number one is a superb fertilizer.
But here’s some equally excellent advice from a professional farmer, which I learned by way of hands on work when I wasn’t any taller than my Dad’s belt buckle. He learned it from his parents, who had it from theirs going back into the dim reaches of history.
Dilute it ten to one. Otherwise……… You’ll not only be wasting it, but you will likely kill some of the plants you are trying to help.
I seem to recall learning about that too, Glen, thanks, and naturally it depends on its contexts too. There’s sporadic pissing near large trees for example, wet compost, common sense and learn as you go. ‘u’
In any case, it appears that we are going to have to keep our wastes close to home if we know what’s good for us.
With 1-10 million of us on Earth (the population of the majority of our existence), you can piss just about anywhere you want.
Of course with a severely degraded planet, and 7.6 billion of us, it is also a moot point.
PAINTS, PESTICIDES, AND OTHER CONSUMER PRODUCTS NOW ADD AS MUCH TO AIR POLLUTION AS CARS
“Cars are no longer the top contributor to urban air pollution. That’s the conclusion of a new study presented here at the annual meeting of AAAS, which publishes Science, that finds pesticides, paints, adhesives, and other consumer and industrial products add about as much to air pollution as transportation does. For the new work, researchers examined volatile organic compounds (VOCs). VOCs react with air to create ozone and, separately, produce fine particulate matter, which contributes to haze. Both of these air pollutants are health hazards and contribute to respiratory diseases, particularly in urban areas where emissions tend to be highest. Emissions from cars and other automobiles have long been considered the major contributor to these kinds of air pollutants. But the new work, which examined the chemical productions statistics from industrial and government agencies, found pesticides, coatings, inks, adhesives, and personal care products such as perfumes produce more than double the emissions of cars. That means U.S. inventories underestimate VOC emissions from these products by as much as a factor of three while overestimating car VOC emissions by 40%, researchers also report today in Science. Because most people use the products that make VOCs indoors, the researchers also compared emissions from residential and commercial buildings to outdoor measurements in Los Angeles, California. They found the concentration of emission compounds indoors was seven times higher than in ambient air. That means air pollution is increasingly from consumer and industrial products rather than from the transportation sector. These products are used indoors where people spend most of their time, which means their use poses a health risk that requires updated regulations, the researchers say.”
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/paints-pesticides-and-other-consumer-products-now-add-much-air-pollution-cars
That is why we have catalytic converters on cars, to reduce the level of pollution by converting them to water, CO2, N2, and O2 . Without them they would be the major polluters.
There is no catalytic converter in place for chemical products. Plus VOC’s are often also GHG’s themselves before reacting in the atmosphere.
A greenhouse gas source of surprising significance: anthropogenic CO2 emissions from use of methanol in sewage treatment.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28498113
“Make America Great Again”
https://s.hdnux.com/photos/71/43/20/15086611/8/920×920.jpg
Guess who?
It’s those little things that count, or is it the forgotten things, I can’t quite remember.
Mechanical insulation can save use amounts of energy and maintenance of mechanical insulation is also very important in saving energy and reducing CO2 emissions. This is a no brainer as far as cost and materials use, yet is not properly pursued.
These examples illustrate the huge energy efficiency opportunity in the industrial and commercial sectors: $4.8 billion in energy savings, a reduction of 43 million metric tons of CO2 emissions, and 89,000 new jobs. The CO2 reduction would be the equivalent of shutting down nine coal plants.
Mechanical insulation maintenance does not require research or an extensive engineering process. The scope can be identified, an RFQ issued, and the work initiated in weeks. It is truly “shovel ready” and pays for itself over and over again.
Using government data, NIA estimated that maintenance of insulation at industrial facilities alone can generate more than $3.6 billion in energy savings per year, reduce 83 billion pounds of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, and create more than 27,000 jobs annually.
In an appraisal of state facilities in Montana, NIA discovered how valuable repairing or replacing mechanical insulation can be. Approximately 3,500 un- or under-insulated items were identified in 25 buildings (56 mechanical rooms), with estimated energy savings of approximately 6 billion Btu per year, a resulting overall payback period of 4.1 years, and an annualized rate of return of 24 percent. Associated reductions in CO2 emissions are estimated at 300 metric tonnes per year. On a square foot of gross building area basis, the energy savings averaged 4.6 kBtu/sf/yr, while energy cost savings averaged $0.043/sf.
Mechanical insulation and insulation in general are among the few industrially manufactured products that save more energy over their life span than is required for their manufacturing. NIA has estimated that some mechanical insulation systems save more than 140 and up to 500 times more energy over their life spans (20 years) than it takes to produce them. This is based on performance comparison of surfaces with and without insulation. Mechanical insulation can also save a minimum of 150 (and up to 750) times more CO2 emissions than it takes to produce the insulation product.
https://insulation.org/io/articles/mechanical-insulation-can-save-4-8-billion-in-energy-costs-and-43-million-metric-tons-of-co2-emissions-and-create-89000-green-jobs-per-year/
https://insulation.org/io/articles/what-is-mechanical-insulation/
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/three-years-of-sls-development-could-buy-86-falcon-heavy-launches/
Hello OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster,
I was wondering if Robert Mueller picked you up yet for your Russian intervention in the 2016 election. Would you like me to inform the FBI so that you could turn yourself in ?
13 Russians Indicted as Mueller Reveals Effort to Aid Trump Campaign
WASHINGTON — The Justice Department charged 13 Russians and three companies on Friday in a sprawling indictment that unveiled a sophisticated network designed to subvert the 2016 election and to support the Trump campaign. It stretched from an office in St. Petersburg, Russia, into the social feeds of Americans and ultimately reached the streets of election battleground states.
The Russians stole the identities of American citizens, posed as political activists and used the flash points of immigration, religion and race to manipulate a campaign in which those issues were already particularly divisive, prosecutors said.
“The indictment alleges that the Russian conspirators want to promote discord in the United States and undermine public confidence in democracy,” Rod J. Rosenstein, the deputy attorney general overseeing the inquiry, said in a brief news conference. “We must not allow them to succeed.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/us/politics/russians-indicted-mueller-election-interference.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/russian-troll-farm-13-suspects-indicted-for-interference-in-us-election/ar-BBJdZRt?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp
My helper HB is almost sure to chime in and contribute his usual remarks about my helping the Russians and the Republicans.
But the internet didn’t exist back when HRC was running her commodity market scam, which was what first attracted my attention to her ethical record.
Go turn yourself in OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster or just admit your a fool who got used by Putin.
Hi HB.
If this wimpy reply is all you can come up with, it’s not going to be fun enough to make it worth bothering with you anymore.
And now that some time has passed, more than half the hard core D’s I know personally are admitting, off the record, that the election was the D’s to lose, and that they lost it because HRC’s long term record and her idiotic campaigning strategy lost it for them.
The D’s are rather unlikely to ever again make the mistake of running a presidential candidate with such a lousy reputation with half the voting public even before the first primary, and such an appalling lack of charisma.
Note that the R establishment fought Trump tooth and claw, to prevent his getting the nomination, and only came together after he literally hijacked the party.
It’s too bad HRC OWNED the D party apparatus, enabling her and her homies to rig the primaries in her favor, else Sanders or somebody else would have won the nomination, and the election as well.
And those of us who are old enough, who have been following politics a long time, have heard of “defining deviancy down”.
The HRC faction taught this fine art to the R voters, lol, so they were ready to overlook the shortcomings of Trump the same way D’s overlooked the short comings of Bill and Hillary.
If you actually go out in the street and ASK somebody why they voted for Roy Moore , or Trump, they are not at all unlikely to say this very thing….. that you fight fire with fire.
The idiots who ignored Bill’s abuse of women, and Hillary’s covering for him, did the same thing. They ignored Moore’s and Trump’s.
How are your oil stocks doing?
I don’t notice you posting much critical of Trump/R new tax law, lol.
Would that be because you aren’t expecting to pay much on your R type income?
Or do you really live in your mom’s basement?
Here is a review of a book on rising sea levels- “Retreat from a Rising Sea”
Looks like a good one, atleast for the US-centric.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/retreat-rising-sea-book-review
From the link:
“Miami will probably be doomed when the sea has risen 2 more feet. There is no nearby high ground to move buildings to; seawalls and the like won’t work [due to the porous bedrock that allows sea water to filter through]; and city and state leaders haven’t even agreed that there is a problem, much less started planning how to respond to the coming flood. Making a response all the more difficult, Miami’s demise will be slow and gradual; death from a thousand cuts.
Bold mine
While I will be the first to admit that Florida’s government officials are beholden to fossil fuel interests and there are plenty of climate science deniers here, the sentence I bolded, is not quite true! Especially with regards Miami. Not that I think the plans are adequate by a long shot… but that’s another story.
https://www.miamidade.gov/planning/library/reports/sea-level-rise-report-recommendations.pdf
Chairman’s Letter
SEALEVEL RISE TASK FORCE REPORT
“The potentially empowering capacity to be able to ’foresee and forestall’ is what ultimately distinguishes the human species from all others…”
Buckminster Fuller, Legendary Futurist
Sea Level Rise is an inevitable consequence of the warming of the oceans and the accelerated
melting of the planet’s ice sheets -regardless of cause. It is a measurable, trackable and relentless reality. Without innovative adaptive capital planning it will threaten trillions of dollars of the region’s built environment, our future water supply, our unique natural resources, our agricultural soils, and our basic economy.
Dealing with this challenge will require a coordinated effort of unprecedented commitment. As the report chronicles, that effort has already begun. Miami-Dade County has been a leader among local governments, thinking globally and acting locally.
The prior Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/miamis-sea-level-rise-and-how-the-king-tide-is-outing-americas-political-and-economic-jokers.pdf
Journal of Coastal Zone Management
ISSN: 2473-3350
Miami’s Sea Level Rise and How the King Tide is Outing America’s
Political and Economic Jokers
John O’Brien*
University of Florida, Miami, FL, United States
Abstract
This manuscript examines and critically stresses the signs of a looming climate event as sea level rise threatens to drown coastal communities nationwide. Specifically, a detailed focus on risk vulnerability in Miami is investigated in this manuscript. Several causal factors are identified and discussed in depth: the recurring celestial phenomenon known as “King Tide”, the natural tidal influence of the cycles of the moon, and the oft debated topic of climate change.
A correlation between climate change and human activity is analysed. Past and present governmental responses to sea level rise at local, state, and federal levels and scrutinized. The most flagrantly reckless deniers of seal level risk vulnerability are identified as politicians, real estate developers and investors. Parallels will be drawn between previous market bubbles and our currently surging real estate market. Responsible action is called for as the following questions are posed: How will sea level rise affect coastal communities as internally displaced persons are forced to seek higher ground? How can the climate event, “King Tide”, give rise to politically supported, forwardthinking
measures? Are powerful political interests aimed at sinking policy which addresses climate concerns? This manuscript asserts that should looming environmental warnings go unchecked and should those vested parties sidestep the implementation of bold policy moves, the “King Tide’s” glimpse into the future can be written: sea level rise will worsen with the absence of human intervention and coastal communities will mimic a mythical past, relegating Miami to suffer a fate similar to the ‘Lost City of Atlantis
Miami may indeed be doomed ,but despite claims to the contrary even our conservative Republican, climate science denying politicians, are well aware of our reality. They have all seen the flooding during our king tides and hurricanes are getting stronger and more destructive every year.
And here a review titled “Besides, I’ll be dead” by Meehan Crist of Jeff Goodell’s book “The Water Will Come”:
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n04/meehan-crist/besides-ill-be-dead?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4004&utm_content=ukrw_nonsubs
“In the coming years, as cities around the world need to be raised, rebuilt, walled off from the ocean, or abandoned, millions of people will be displaced, impoverished and left to fend for themselves by governments unwilling or unable to help. Driving along the Jersey shore, Goodell hears a man called Anthony Caronia on the radio, pleading for a government buyout of his home so he can move to higher ground:
Goodell writes with compassion and clarity: ‘Not everyone is going to be saved. Wealthy people will take care of themselves, either by moving their homes or elevating them or building seawalls or simply writing off the house as it crumbles into the sea, but for the vast majority of people who live on coastlines, it’s going to be a tough day when they wake up and realise that their state or federal government doesn’t have the money or the political will to rescue them.”
The articles concludes:
“What will happen in the next eighty years remains far from certain. There is a tipping point after which ice sheets will fully collapse – Greenland holds enough water to raise sea levels by roughly 22 feet – but researchers don’t know where that point lies. In January, NOAA released a major report on sea level rise that factors in current ice-sheet collapse and more than doubles the median rise in global sea levels predicted at the time of the Paris Agreement, from 2.3 feet to 4.9 feet. Goodell’s conclusion is crystal clear: ‘If we want to minimise the impact of sea level rise in the next century, here’s how we do it: stop burning fossil fuels and move to higher ground.’ If humans stopped using fossil fuels entirely by 2050, we might face two to three feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. Instead of 4.9 feet. Or 11 feet. But the water will come. The future depends on how humans rise to meet it.”
Sea level rise will be the least of our problems if we keep killing off the ecosystems, especially insect life.
To be frank, I really don’t see all that much difference there. I happen to think of those two issues as inextricably linked. We can probably place the blame directly on the underlying system and paradigm on which our entire global civilization is currently based. That is the root cause of all the ongoing ecological destruction of which sea level rise and insect die off are just two glaring manifestations of a much broader ongoing systemic collapse. This includes things like CO2 pollution, ocean acidification, sea level rise, petrochemical pollution, fertilizer runoff, agricultural use of pesticides, herbicides, habitat destruction, etc… etc…
We have met the enemy and he is us.
Walt Kelly
Yes Fred, they are inextricably linked to human activity. However, stopping the spraying of pesticides and herbicides is a separate problem from stopping fossil fuel burning.
Stopping fossil fuel burning will not solve the problems of habitat destruction or massive use of pesticides and herbicides. Humans will find new tech ways to continue those practices.
The only link between those that I can see lies right between the ears of a lot of people. They think they can do just what they want and damn the consequences (as long as they don’t go to jail or lose their money). Death is apparently not even on the board. Money, desire, and ego are the players in this game, to hell with the rest.
Yes Fred, they are inextricably linked to human activity.
No, that misses my point! They are inextricably linked to the current culture and linked to our social and economic paradigms. The ones that underlie our global industrial civilization.
We need a major shift in thinking about how we are going to live our lives, without which we won’t be able to address either the stopping of spraying of pesticides and herbicides or the stopping of fossil fuel burning.We need to seriously re-assess our basic fundamental core values.
Disclaimer: I am neither superstitious or religious, but imagine for a moment two cultures based on different world views.
One in which the people hold the land, the forests and the rivers as a sacred places where their ancestors spirits go to rest. A place where those ancestors look over the trees the birds the fish and animals there because they belong to their children and their children’s children and their spirits work to protect them.
A second world view where the rivers and forests with their fauna and flora are there to be exploited for profit by a few owners of the land. Where the owners of today don’t think of protecting resources for their children and don’t recognize the fact that they are borrowing that land from future generations. A culture of instant gratification benefiting only a few in the present.
Most of us, members of western societies, live in a culture that holds the second view as the one that is good, progressive and civilized and generally view the first one as primitive and backward.
Which goes right to the heart of your final point!
Money, desire, and ego are the players in this game, to hell with the rest.
Basically you are up against the MAGA people who are all supposedly good God fearing Christians and believe that God created nature for man to rule over…they don’t do science, or listen to rational arguments, don’t have a clue what socialism even means, but they are against it in principal because the rest of their tribe is too… They want their big gas guzzling pickups and their NRA membership cards, they are scared to death of foreigners taking it all away through unfair trade!
You got any ideas on how to change that culture? How are you going to fight the economic power and clout of the special interests who are openly manipulating these people? Hurry up with a suggestion because we don’t have a heck of a lot of time.
“We need a major shift in thinking about how we are going to live our lives, without which we won’t be able to address either the stopping of spraying of pesticides and herbicides or the stopping of fossil fuel burning.We need to seriously re-assess our basic fundamental core values. ”
Isn’t that what I said, that the problem in in our heads?
Isn’t that what I said, that the problem in in our heads?
At the risk of sounding like a sentimental old sap who traffics in clichés, I think its more about what’s in our hearts and our souls and what kind of cultural values we embrace collectively. And to be clear, I don’t mean that with any religious connotation.
I agree, but see my latest idea on how to convince or constrain the less than noble contingent.
Fred, did you read the book “Drawdown”?
Let me ask you a question. Why do you think that things are so bad when most of the nations in the world have just agreed that climate change is a major threat to be acted upon? It took 5 decades to get that huge agreement.
You want to change the economic culture? That is easy, give a strong value to any extraction or use of nature, both material and biological. Charge taxes or fees for it and use that fund to preserve as much wild land and oceans possible, make pollution free industries and commerce, assist in making zero energy buildings, etc. Also fund running down any crooks that try to cheat the system or pollute the world.
Charge for every fish, crustacean, mollusk, piece of land converted to human use, every barrel of oil, ton of coal, or any other resource. If we use it, take it, we pay for it. Make the world valuable economically and it will be treated with a lot more respect. Not just one time fees, but use fees and per item fees.
You want that tree, it will cost a fee of two hundred dollars or more. You want to farm that 200 acre plot, you pay for all the nature removed and you pay each year for the use.
You want to spray toxic chemicals. No, not one drop.
Want to extract water from an aquifer? Charges for that and big fines if the water aquifer falls in level.
No more free lunch, no more getting away with murder.
I think people would determine really quickly what was important and what was not.
To make the world important to people, make it expensive and make it global.
That all sounds like selfish big government socialism, which of course is just wonderful, until you run out of other people’s money, causing the job creating entrepreneurs of society to become the destitute. If you’ve ever read any kind of history, you would realize the next stage is world war as the givers of society lash out against their big government oppressors.
“That all sounds like selfish big government socialism”
“as the givers of society lash out against their big government oppressors.”
Yep, it would be horrible living in a sustainable world with lots more jobs and hope for the generations to come. Just horrible. Having an abundant and beautiful world with fresh clean water, clean air, and a life style one could be proud of is nothing that people want, at least some people.
Nope, we wouldn’t be filling our homes and dumps with junk. What a lost freedom that would be.
Hey, if you can’t act properly in this world, then you have two choices. The government will make you act properly or nature will get rid of you. Take your choice, the latter is much more violent and deadly.
I guess we see the world not as it is, but as we are Julian. I’d have categorized G.F.’s proposals, overall, as internalizing externalities so that they are accurately priced in order for market mechanisms to work based on true costs.
Since when is it socialism to require that people pay the true cost of their goods and services?
This is a serious question: Why do we get to pollute for free?
…until you run out of other people’s money, causing the job creating entrepreneurs of society to become the destitute.
You are either an ideological troll or an imbecil, probably both! You apparently do not grasp the basic principle that all economic systems are subsidiaries of Ecosystems Inc.
Without a functioning ecosystem all your job creating entrepreneurs are dead!
BTW since you are such a history buff could you give us a run down on how long we have had Neoliberal laissez-faire economic thinking in the world?
Fred, did you read the book “Drawdown”
No, I hadn’t heard of it. Just googled it.
Found this link to a talk about it on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYvKv0lM-_A
Talk by Paul Hawken editor of the new book “Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming” recorded April 21st at Town Hall Seattle
Will give it a listen later, TKS!
Yes, probably the most brilliant work done to date.
Hawkins should be approached with caution.
He has bought “simple capitalism”, and isn’t returning it.
A good thinker, with some good solutions, but in a box.
(as a ex Marin person, he was around frequently)
You need to be clearer about your assertions and also realize that it is not Hawkins, it was a very large group of people from around the world that put this together in a clearly logical and scientific fashion. Do not confuse the presenter with the work.
I’ll take a look, if the situation arises.
But the book is by Hawkins, and his role must not be diminished.
This is someone I have examined thoroughly, in person and his works.
Tell us when you come up with something better, or anything at all.
Hawkins should be approached with caution.
As should all proposals, ideas and organizations intent on mitigating the consequences of humans affecting the biosphere. If for no other reason than to make sure the cure is not worse than the disease.
He has bought “simple capitalism”, and isn’t returning it.
Capitalism happens to be the defacto system we find ourselves in at the present moment. Even China which calls itself a communist state is operating as a capitalist society. There are ideas for other economic systems being talked about but until they are fully implemented and accepted as the new normal this is what we have to work with, whether we want to or not. You can’t solve the problems of fish by positing they go live in some idealized fluid other than H2O. So let’s go with the flow for now.
Having said that, I would like to see a little more in depth access to their data and methodology. Their website has this:
http://www.drawdown.org/scenarios
Eighty of the solutions in this book already exist and are scaling to become competitive alternatives to now dominant, high-emitting technologies. They are economically viable, proven to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon dioxide, and have the potential to spread throughout the world.
Our approach was to collect as much data from a variety of vetted, widely-cited sources as possible, using our models to assess different potential pathways for global adoption. Since no individual organization, model, or researcher can claim to accurately know the future, or how every technology or practice will perform in every corner of the world, we gathered a wide range projections from multiple sources. This approach allowed us to generate reasonable, defensible guesses at how these solutions can grow and what their impacts could be.
Each solution is modeled based on a comparison between a reference case, assuming little change over the next thirty years, and three scenarios reflecting increasingly more accelerated global adoption.
I did watch the talk by Paul Hawken, the Editor of “Drawdown” and the one point that he made that leapt out at me was his comment about world peace. Which he said is not on the solutions list, not because it isn’t extremely important but because they weren’t able to accurately quantify it.
But just imagine the trillions and trillions spent on the military industrial complex at a global level, just to keep the fossil fuel industries of all the nations vying for those resources running…
Ok—
I just not into “simple capitalism”.
Obviously we have a issue here.
But, go ahead—–
Criticizing without any actual stated basis is much like farting, we cringe and hope it disperses.
Capitalism is a race to the bottom without strong regulation, which is what we see today in America. It will squeeze the wealth of the 99%, pushing it to the top 1% and destroy the environment. Which has been the Republican mantra since RayGun.
In the US, we first gave up function and now are even giving up form as far as the federal government and the economic system. Structure seems to be getting quite loose also with non-designated players taking on the role of designated ones. Although there is still some backlash against loss of structure.
Hopefully this will become a learning moment and the pendulum will swing the other way
Mueller Ain’t Going Away.
Gods are said to work in mysterious ways.
If we get lucky, the excesses of the current ruling class and ruling economic model will result in enough of us, collectively, suffering enough hard licks upside the head to wake us up, and get our attention, so that we change our ways…… before it’s WAY too late.
I call this the Pearl Harbor Wake Up event theory.
Times move very fast in these latter days. It used to take centuries for society to change as much as it has changed in many respects in just one recent generation.
I feel for the poor and less educated people who live in places like Miami.
As for the rest, the ones who have some education, and therefore presumably some brains, I’m not eager to bail them out, economically.
But then I’m pretty old fashioned about such things, and believe all the executives at banks that got bailed out should have had to surrender every dime they got in any fashion associated with their positions as executives, lol, and that the stocks should have all been confiscated and sold to make the rest of us, those of us who DID NOT OWN bank stocks, whole again, to the extent possible.
You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid.
Examples go a hell of a long way towards correcting stupid behavior on the part of others, if they’re effective enough.
We’re already at very high risk of financial collapse as it is, and the near certainty that we will be collectively saddled with TRYING to bail out waterfront property owners alone is probably enough to finish bringing down our financial house…… assuming it stands that long ANYWAY.
And with financial collapse, we can forget about any meaningful actions being taken to correct or at least minimize further environmental damage.
Ron, our gracious host, is basically right. We’re fucked, royally, as a species.
But I still believe there’s a possibility that some of us can pull thru and maintain an industrial civilization in a few places….. with some luck.
“You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid”
That’s why I have committed myself to make an example of you OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster. You make it easy nearly every time you post. It’s been nearly a year since I have nicknamed you and you continue to show examples of ignorance. You still live in denial.
“Mueller” isn’t “Going Away” and neither am I. Putin used your hate and jealousy to play you for a fool.
Just admit it and “call this the Pearl Harbor Wake Up event”.
Thank you HB,
Every reply helps me get across the real point, which is that anybody who chooses to support a candidate with the shortcomings of HRC when they have another wise viable choice has made a truly major mistake.
Trump couldn’t have won except for the fact that people like you were stupid enough to support HRC, throwing their principles, in case they had any, to the wind.
But I’m quite sure now that I have convinced at least a couple of dozen big D democrats with whom I’m personally acquainted that in the future, they will do well to support candidates who have favorable polling numbers, and less baggage.
Nearly all of the people in this forum who post regularly are mathematically literate.
I haven’t been able to get a single one of them, when directly challenged to do so, to defend HRC on her merits and record.
That failure speaks louder than my words.
She was about the worst candidate ever nominated by a major party, and she got the nomination because she had an octopus like grip on the party machinery.
I seldom have any thing favorable to say about the R party, but I will give it this much. It fought Trump tooth and claw trying to KEEP him from being the candidate, and at least a few prominent Republicans have called out Trump for what he is.
The Democrats are pretty goddamned short of prominent people who will call out Clinton for what she is.
But the future belongs to the younger people, because we old farts are departing fast.
I spent a good bit of time with people working for Sanders.
Ninety percent of them, locally , were young people, the best educated, the most liberal, the most highly principled young people it has ever been my pleasure to meet.
It’s hard to find a really and truly liberated and empowered young woman who supported Clinton. All the ones I met held her in contempt, as they did Trump.
AND EVEN if she had won, she would have been part and parcel of the Republican Party’s agenda, in way too many respects.
Her sort of overreaching, condescending, nose in the air, ENTITLED politics are as much as anything the reason the Republicans have been mopping the floor with the Democrats locally to nationally for the last couple of decades, even when the D’s controlled the WH.
I talk like a coach. You continue to talk like the blind partisan you are.
Apple Butter
On Super Bowl Sunday, only two teams play. Your the fool crying in the corner over spilled milk, when your team got knotted out in the first round of the play off. There was only two choices on November 8. Your hate and jealousy over whelmed you. Your vote for Jill Stein was a vote for Trump in the Russian play book. If you were a coach, you would know that. Your apple butter stinks.
“You can’t fix stupid, but you can make an example of stupid”
There is no difference between bullshit and your apple butter
Governments are willing to pay billions to rebuild after storms and floods – in just the same places. Next time around, do it again. When will it be seen that moving is a cheaper option. I suppose they will try and rebuild even when the land lies underwater for 13 months of the year.
NAOM
The movement is occurring somewhat and the major movement will occur as further destructions happen and insurance disappears. People will just have to take losses. The era of play and no pay is ending. Everyone will pay more the further we push in the wrong directions.
All young people have been warned so they can avoid some of the disaster if they choose. The older people may be stuck or playing the waiting game of chance, hoping the disaster will not strike them before they are dead.
New survey shows first Arctic Ocean with an ice free summer season could be as early as 2031 and more certainly during the mid 2030’s.
Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data
Using an inter-calibrated satellite
sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and
statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the
linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years
earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of
six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free
summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings,
and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six
statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the
earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiHg5PwoK3ZAhXkYt8KHVjPDbIQFgg0MAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdpi.com%2F2072-4292%2F10%2F2%2F230%2Fpdf&usg=AOvVaw30B1_frOZz-2sznDxVPo3G
PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volumes with extended trend lines.
Federal judge blocks loan to Puerto Rico’s utility, threatening blackouts
Apart from the disclosure that Wall Sreet, is intent on tightening the screws on Puerto Rico, aided and abetted by the courts and the Federal Government, here’s something I find really interesting.
In addition to the work being done to rebuild the island’s transmission and distribution system (generation was largely undamaged), private companies have also been stepping in with small off-grid solutions.
As Bloomberg puts it, the SU Matrullas school, located in the remote town of Orocovis, “has given up on the island’s utility.”
Sonnen on Friday announced it has developed a solar+battery storage microgrid at the school, working with Puerto Rico’s Pura Energía, powering the school entirely with on-site generation. The company donated two smart energy storage systems, one 4kW/8kWh and the other 8kW/14kWh, paired with a 15 kW rooftop solar system provided by Puera.
The microgrid replaces the gas-fueled generator the school had been using, with clean and quiet solar power.
The rebuilding and re-envisioning of Puerto Rico’s electric grid will ultimately create a cleaner and more resilient grid, with far more modern technologies brought to bear. According to Sonnen, the school is done with PREPA —even if they restore power.
The school “currently does not plan to reconnect with [PREPA], even once power is restored to the area,” Sonnen said in a statement. The school will also soon be using an on-site water capture and filtration system.
A decade ago this would have been prohibitively expensive and some of the components of the system probably did not even exist as products one could purchase “off the shelf”.
FirstEnergy to reluctantly ‘deactivate’ West Virginia coal plant
Dive Insight:
FirstEnergy had proposed transferring the plant from one subsidiary to another, prompting federal regulators to worry about cross-subsidization issues. Regulators in West Virgnia would have allowed the deal, but FirstEnergy said they attached too many conditions for it to remain viable.
“Closing Pleasants is a very difficult choice,” FirstEnergy President and CEO Charles Jones said in a statement. “But the recent federal and West Virginia decisions leave FirstEnergy no reasonable option but to expeditiously move forward with deactivation of the plant.”
As the company prepares to shutter Pleasants, it will simultaneously look for potential buyers. Mon Power, a FirstEnergy subsidiary in West Virginia, is facing a capacity shortfall that will approach 1 GW within the next 10 years, according to its integrated resource plan accepted by West Virginia regulators in 2016. The utility expects it will need 700 MW by 2020 and 850 MW by 2027, and had proposed acquiring Pleasants to meet the shortfall.
I haven’t been able to discern from the article why exactly the owners feel it necessary to close this plant. Surely it is not on environmental grounds, given the tone of the current administration so, it must be uneconomic to continue to operate it. If that is indeed the case, in the face of the current administration’s love affair with coal, this is an ominous sign for the future of coal.
Energy wheeling and dealing in West Virginia.
I think you may find this “ORDER REJECTING DISPOSITION AND ACQUISITION OF GENERATION FACILITIES AND DISMISSING ASSUMPTION OF LIABILITIES” from FERC quite illuminating and interesting. Paragraphs 34 and 35 are quite a mouthful.
Things like setting the conditions for purchase of a power facility that surprisingly matches the Pleasants Power facility. Also the note about FirstEnergy’s plan to exit the competitive power generation market soon, as well as tossing the consumers a parasite where they would provide the money difference due to the power plant being uncompetitive. Lots more rotten dealings at the core of this one.
https://www.ferc.gov/CalendarFiles/20180112162634-EC17-88-000.pdf
The Precautionary Principle Asks “How Much Harm Is Avoidable?” Rather Than “How Much Harm Is Acceptable?”
Lullabye Grave
Hi Caelan,
Every once in a while, you nail it.
The takers’ mentality runs through the environmental debate, too, and now we face the prospect of their bright-green vision, a dying world where humans have mastered, godlike, the technologies of dominion: massive solar arrays, geo-engineered shade, gleaming hydroponic cities and sweeping fields of mono-cultured soy — the output of a cultural algorithm that has been running thousands of years, a system of consumption and motion that will do anything to keep its wheels turning.
So what if we’re doomed?
(source of Hightrekker’s quote)
I think you would like Kingsnorth, Caelan—–
The Wake is quite good, but you do need to learn a new language to read it.
(after 30 pages, you are catching the vibe)
Jeffers? What more is there to say.
“I suppose I was probably halfway through it when I thought: There’s no way anybody’s going to publish this,” he said. “I’m writing a book about a period in history no one knows about, in a language no one can understand, with a central character who’s horrible. There’s absolutely no way anyone’s going to touch this with a bargepole, but I don’t care!”
Kingsnorth on The Wake
https://www.npr.org/2015/08/27/434970724/the-wake-is-an-unlikely-hit-in-an-imaginary-language
If I can catch some extra time, I’ll check it out. Thanks for the recommend.
Another good example as to why nationalism, my country first, being xenophobic and anti immigrant is a really bad way to run any country trying to participate in today’s global economy!
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/17/digital-nomads-are-hiring-and-firing-their-governments/
Digital nomads are hiring and firing their governments
Benedict Anderson famously called the population of a nation state an “imagined community,” but today’s global workers have a very different community that they are imagining.
From cryptocurrency millionaires in Puerto Rico to digital nomads in hotspots like Thailand, Indonesia, and Colombia, there is increasingly a view that there is a marketplace for governance, and we hold the power as consumers. Much like choosing a cereal from the breakfast department of a supermarket, highly-skilled professionals are now comparing governments online — and making clear-headed choices based on which ones are most convenient and have the greatest amenities available.
“There is a shift happening where the country isn’t fixating, the talent is fixating,” Hindriks said. Governments — at least, some of them — are realizing that the generators of wealth today increasingly have infinite choice about where they live. A little more friction in the immigration process from an extra visa form could mean hundreds of digital nomads simply switch their plane tickets somewhere else, depriving a country of innovative thought and critical revenues.
I’m guessing that if there are any Digital Norwegians Nomads thinking of emigrating, they probably won’t be all that interested in moving to Trumpland.
TRUMP’S TOP SPY JUST CONTRADICTED THE WHITE HOUSE’S LINE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
“The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent — and possibly upheaval — through 2018,” Coats wrote. He noted that the past 115 years were the warmest in modern civilization and that the past few years were the warmest on record. And there’s a possibility of a sudden shift in the global climate once it reaches a tipping point, he said.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/2/15/17016952/climate-change-security-threat-cia
That’s been the military’s position on climate change for quite a while now.
Is Trump and the Repugs another tipping point?
Speaking of tipping points, this site has a lot of info on the Arctic and tipping points.
http://ingienous.com/the-challenge/green-technology/tipping-points/cryosphere-tipping-points/
I thought that the military had been ordered that there was no such thing as climate change and they were not to worry about it. Might be wrong.
NAOM
You can’t change history by declaration, especially false ones.
That’s a good find, thanks. Almost every month something happens in the Arctic that hasn’t been seen before, whether it turns out to be a sign of a tipping point I guess depends on whether conditions will return as before, to me that looks pretty unlikely in most cases and they tend to cause change to accelerate. For example below is the Lincoln Sea and Nares strait. That used to be thick multiyear ice which blocked the strait. That all got smashed up last year; now, as the new ice gets pushed against the north coast of Greenland, rather than compressing and thickening it breaks up and gets exported.
The prediction above for ice free in the 2030s seems a bit optimistic to me. It is an extension of trends, but on those trends are imposed noise. One bad year and the ice could be gone, and bad years seem to pull the trend down more than good years can compensate.
Similarly the Greenland Sea used to have thick, landfast ice which disappeared at the end of last melt season. A series of recent cyclones has moved and compacted the remaining thinner ice, which was already at a record low, and the extent is declining several months earlier than normal.
And on the opposite side the Bering Sea might go completely ice free about three months ahead of schedule because of continuous thinning over the last few years and changes in weather and current patterns. The area is already well below average extent and due for anomalously high, above freezing air temperatures for the rest of this week.
Alaska’s Bering Sea Lost a Third of Its Ice in Just 8 Days
n just eight days in mid-February, nearly a third of the sea ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s west coast disappeared. That kind of ice loss and the changing climate as the planet warms is affecting the lives of the people who live along the coast.
At a time when the sea ice should be growing toward its maximum extent for the year, it’s shrinking instead—the area of the Bering Sea covered by ice is now 60 percent below its average from 1981-2010.
“[Bering sea ice] is in a league by itself at this point,” said Richard Thoman, the climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service Alaska region. “And looking at the weather over the next week, this value isn’t going to go up significantly. It’s going to go down.”
MORE ON:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17022018/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-extent-alaska-bering-hunting-whales
Here comes the sun, and I say bring it on foolish mortals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGKPHFrHVVY
LOL! He was already talking about the melting of the polar ice caps and global dimming way back then 😉
Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting
Little darling, it seems like years since it’s been clear
How appropriate
“Here Comes the Sun” was written at the time when Apple was getting like school, where we had to go and be businessmen: ‘Sign this’ and ‘sign that.’ Anyway, it seems as if winter in England goes on forever, by the time spring comes you really deserve it. So one day I decided I was going to sag off Apple and I went over to Eric Clapton’s house. The relief of not having to go see all those dopey accountants was wonderful, and I walked around the garden with one of Eric’s acoustic guitars and wrote “Here Comes the Sun”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_the_Sun
Oh, 1969, Apple *Records*. The computer company was started in 1976…
Most here have little relation to the 1970’s, let alone the 1960’s.
I’m surprised they know of ‘Apple”.
Such diminished worlds– but it is what we have.
In the last 4 months, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska has had temperature deviations relative to the 1971-2000 averages of:
Nov. 2017 – +15.50 F
Dec. 2017 – +19.06 F
Jan. 2018 – +8.61 F
Feb. 2018 (Through Feb. 18) – +19.78 F
It’s a bit unusual to have such a large deviation for so long. The 4 month average deviation could be over 15 F above the 1971-2000 average.
You got it George, after 2020 the ice level gets dominated by weather more than climate until about 203o when it’s just baked Alaska. 🙂
New spies for old, new spies for old. Job vacancy coming up?
NAOM
We have all heard about the many problems declining fertility rates will cause due to the high burden of elderly and the low level of workers to support both the elderly and their particular country. Some governments have been raising the level of immigrants to fill the gap. But is all that even true or necessary. Maybe increasing automation (which will replace workers quickly) and increasing health with age will make all those assumptions about having less young people not a problem at all.
Possibly the depressed forecast of future problems from fertility decline is all wrong and twisting the knob of immigration now will cause a lot more problems in the future. Plus if things change economically in the future, the indigenous population tends to produce more children. So forecasting might be our biggest problem, not population changes.
One economists view:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5boSf8E1Ic
Here is one of the depressed forecasts (appears to assume economic model will be the same in the future and that we need large numbers to progress technologically?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZeyYIsGdAA
Maybe increasing automation (which will replace workers quickly) and increasing health with age will make all those assumptions about having less young people not a problem at all.
I’m aware that Japanese already have them and I recently saw a study of how the Netherlands was doing the same with excellent results. I’m sure other advanced societies won’t be far behind. Seems the robots are friendlier and more patient than the human caretakers and the elderly quickly become attached to their robots…
https://venturebeat.com/2017/11/14/meet-the-robots-caring-for-japans-aging-population/
Meet the robots caring for Japan’s aging population
I was thinking more along the lines of the much of general work force being replaced by automation within 15 years or so.
Fifteen (15) years is a long time in the robotics business:
CHINA’S TECH COMPANIES LEADING THE WAY WITH ROBOTICS
A report in Nikkei Asian Review said about 90 per cent of the personal robots on display at the IFA consumer electronics trade show, held in Berlin in September, were developed and made by Chinese companies. Siasun Robot & Automation Co of Shenyang, Liaoning province, is the largest of them, in terms of its market value of 33.5 billion yuan (£3.86 billion). Its products are now exported to more than 30 countries and regions, half of which are involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. Sensing the surging demand for such products and systems in industries such as healthcare, education and entertainment, China aims to have sales of service robots worth more than 30 billion yuan by 2020.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/world/china-watch/technology/china-tech-companies-aiming-smarten-world-robots/
The competition for McDonald’s and Dairy Queen jobs is getting stiffer all the time. Next the doctors and car salesmen.
We are making people at the rate of 80 million per year, what will they do? I guess they need to chose from the list of 100 ways to reduce or sequester carbon in the Drawdown book to find their jobs.
The competition for McDonald’s and Dairy Queen jobs is getting stiffer all the time. Next the doctors and car salesmen.
We are making people at the rate of 80 million per year, what will they do?
Yes, that is true, however you also need to take into account the fact that McDonald’s is a global trans national corporation and issues such as climate change are global problems that can not be addressed on a national level. Yet we find ourselves living in a world where almost without exception that vast majority of people are looking backwards rather than trying to deal with the realities of the present. Automation and AI, are making almost all current human ‘JOBS’ obsolete, at the very time that we are adding 80 million humans to the planet every year. It doesn’t matter if you are a burger flipper, candle stick maker, accountant, economist, engineer or a medical doctor.
Here is a TED conversation from a year ago that might give pause for some thought about our collective dilemma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szt7f5NmE9E
Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide | Yuval Noah Harari
How do we make sense of today’s political divisions? In a wide-ranging conversation full of insight, historian Yuval Harari places our current turmoil in a broader context, against the ongoing disruption of our technology, climate, media — even our notion of what humanity is for. This is the first of a series of TED Dialogues, seeking a thoughtful response to escalating political divisiveness. Make time (just over an hour) for this fascinating discussion between Harari and TED curator Chris Anderson.
Yes, the competition is with machines, not people anymore. So changing the global climate together is a great place for all those “excess” human workers. Meaningful activities and work are much better for people, let the robots do the service work and heavy labor.
The national versus global political thing is mostly irrelevant now. We act globally, we spread knowledge and tech globally, we share food, energy and materials globally. We shatter pollution globally. Threats are global.
The nation centric political system is a throwback to previous times and needs to be updated in many cases.
There’s no shortage of work. It’s just a question of figuring out the social organization needed to suppport the doing of that work.
The developing world still needs more stuff: housing, transportation, water infrastructure, etc.
The whole world needs more healthcare, medical research, childcare, elder care, education at all ages.
Building of renewable energy, electric transportation, electric heating. A new service oriented, recycling oriented economy. Environmental cleanup.
People have been worrying about the end of work for centuries. The growth of labor productivity began to accelerate very roughly about 500 years ago, and people have been worrying about running out of jobs ever since.
There’s vast amounts of work still to be done.
There’s no shortage of work.
Which is not the same as well paying jobs for billions of people…
Somehow civilized societies will have to decouple the concept of useful, fulfilling and meaningful activities that benefit both the individual and the collective from the 19th century notion of jobs…
Like universal free healthcare coverage that already exists in most civilized progressive countries, humanity will need to come up with a global plan for providing universal basic needs.
To be clear there is no model for this kind of transition. We are in completely uncharted waters.
If we are still around it will all get worked out. 🙂
jobs is money.. money is prosperity.. prosperity is happyness.. its all connected, so that is why we celebrate the dignity of a job not sitting around on welfare..
I’ve been reading “1177bc, When Civilization Collapsed.” It really was the end of the (late bronze age) world then, and happened in a few decades. Many parallels with today: large states, global trading, shifting alliances, some staggeringly wealthy individuals, copper as a key good like oil now; then climate change, natural disasters, droughts, wars, famine, waves of migrants and no more civilization. Course it all happened in a relatively small area of the East Mediterranean, but that was the known world then. Some of the clay tablets found show people worrying, and they were right to.
Education equals job skills and social prosperity. Money is a means of exchange. Prosperity is security. Dignity is earned. Welfare is compassion. kokoe3 is a devious Russian bot.
Kokoe3, you really don’t have the slightest clue what I was talking about, do you?! Either that or you are a troll and being deliberately obtuse.
kokoe3 : “prosperity is happiness”
Prosperity will give you comfort but not happiness. If you are happy, ambition disappears. There is no even need for ambition of prosperity if you are happy.
Ambition simply means you are not happy the way you are. What dreams do you want to fulfill? That means the reality that you are living in is not giving you contentment, it is not enough; you want something more. Only a miserable mind wants something more.
In Australia:
EMISSIONS INCREASES APPROVED BY REGULATOR MAY WIPE OUT $260M OF DIRECT ACTION CUTS
“If all sites emitted to their newly approved level, it could add up to 22m tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year – 4% of Australia’s annual emissions…The biggest increases allowed under the safeguard mechanism have been for coalmining operations, including Whitehaven’s Maules Creek open cut mine in New South Wales, BM Alliance’s Broadmeadow mine in Queensland and Citic Pacific’s Sino Iron project in the Pilbara. Liquefied natural gas plants such as the projects of Chevron at Gorgon and Santos at Curtis Island have opened with approved emissions limits that are not offset elsewhere.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/19/emissions-increases-approved-by-regulator-may-wipe-out-260m-of-direct-action-cuts
Meanwhile another gem falls to bulldozer and chainsaw in name of progress:
PERU ENDS ERA OF ‘ROADLESS WILDERNESS’ IN ITS AMAZON RAINFORESTS
“Roads spread destruction and deforestation in the Amazon, now Peru, driven by neoliberal imperatives, plans a highway for one of the regions most sensitive forests.”
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/30/peru-ends-era-roadless-wilderness-amazon-rainforests/
Apparently the Peruvians are no smarter than the Brazilians, Venezuelans, Colombians and most of the other South American countries that have political borders in the Amazonian rain forest.
https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/amazon_countries.html
Deforestation rates continue to rise unabated in this region.
It seems South Americans aren’t smarter than yeast or cyanobacteria either.
.
Less than 800 years to no forest cover worldwide at this rate of loss. To put this in perspective, China is increasing forest at a rapid rate (32 percent in 25 years), while the US and Russia are slightly positive over 25 years and Canada very slightly negative. However, at this rate Brazil could lose 40% of it’s forest cover over the next century. It has lost about 500,000 square kilometers of forest cover in the last 25 years. That is two Great Britain’s plus a little in 25 years (1990 -2015).
Russia, Brazil, Canada, USA and China are the largest forested nations in the world. Of those only Brazil is significantly negative, very negative.
Latin America is the big loser in the world. Mimicking the early actions of the US is not a good thing, we know better now. Or do we?
Of course we don’t know the future, forest loss could slow down or speed up. The large loss of primary forest is a major problem, since it really hurts biodiversity and rapidly increases species loss. Primary forest should be the first order of protection.
How nuclear weapons research revealed new climate threats
(Lawrence Livermore Lab’s increasingly powerful climate models have sounded a stark warning for California.)
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609974/how-nuclear-weapons-research-revealed-new-climate-threats/
Nice find, thanks. I see the climate models are still chasing reality. If there is any reality to the findings it is at least consistent with a continued drying of the western US. I wonder what other effects the loss of sea ice is causing and will cause.
Worst Drought in 1,000 Years Predicted for American West
The chances of a 35-year or longer “megadrought” striking the Southwest and central Great Plains by 2100 are above 80 percent if the world stays on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists from NASA, Columbia University, and Cornell University report in a study published Thursday in the new open-access journal Science Advances.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/02/150212-megadrought-southwest-water-climate-environment/
BIODIVERSITY LOSS RAISES RISK OF ‘EXTINCTION CASCADES’
“New research shows that the loss of biodiversity can increase the risk of “extinction cascades,” where an initial species loss leads to a domino effect of further extinctions….
With extinction rates at their highest levels ever and numerous species under threat due to human activity, the findings are a further warning about the consequences of eroding biodiversity.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180219155019.htm
Sadly, by the time humans realize they are just animals and only a part of a giant web of life it will only be after the losses occur and the impacts threaten human existence. Sometimes the most obvious facts are completely outside the ability of most humans to grasp.
Yup,
‘100,000 ORANGUTANS’ KILLED IN 16 YEARS
“Deforestation, driven by logging, oil palm, mining and paper mills, continues to be the main culprit. But the research, published in the journal Current Biology, also revealed that animals were “disappearing” from areas that remained forested. This implied large numbers of orangutans were simply being slaughtered, said lead researcher Maria Voigt of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-42994630
Sick, very sick.
Maybe the products made from that area should have the photos of dead orangutans imprinted on each one so the buyers know what they paid for.
Caption underneath “By buying this product you helped kill these amazing creatures.”
.
Model ensembles are in good agreement about the AO crashing down to very negative levels over the next week. This will usher in another round of global cooling for the Northern Hemisphere.
Driving this is a massive SSW event, now also being noticed by the European climatologists.
Get ready everyone. The #BeastFromTheEast is on its way. Cross model agreement for a severe cold spell with loads of #heavysnow too. Some uppers approaches-17c 850hpa! Please share and follow for updates here and @StormchaserUKEU our partners.#uksnow #ExtremeCold
https://twitter.com/UKsnow_updates/status/965693347938566144
Yawn! Frisky Bobby the weatherman, is still hung up about localized cold weather events in the northern hemisphere during winter.
He’s paid by that Snow Miser guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPrbccEdI5o
Snowbegone here again, five inches lasted just two days. Hitting 70F here tomorrow. Having spring more than a month early again,
Newborn survival rates in US only slightly better than in Sri Lanka
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/feb/20/newborn-babies-survival-rates-us-united-states-slightly-better-sri-lanka
So, that proves we need more warmth?
Errr, Bob, you cannot have ‘Global’ cooling in just the Northern Hemisphere. Please revise spherical geometry.
NAOM
This one is for Bob Frisky.
US Warmhole
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/
I came across that phenomenon a few weeks ago when examining state temperature anomalies. I wonder if it is due to those regions being controlled by the Gulf of Mexico. It may not be that it is being cooled more, maybe the region started out warmer and is stabilized by a north flow of air off the Gulf region, which is what is happening right now. There is a 24C drop in temp west of the Mississippi.
Tennessee temperature anomaly in degree F.
Every body here knows about methane and global warming.
But how many of us know methane is also the basis of a tourism business?
http://www.bbc.com/travel/gallery/20180218-lake-abraham-an-ethereal-landscape-of-frozen-bubbles
A worthwhile read about the gradual recognition and adoption of the precautionary principle in the public decision making process:
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43517-the-precautionary-principle-asks-how-much-harm-is-avoidable-rather-than-how-much-harm-is-acceptable
MUELLER AIN’T GOING AWAY.
M A G A
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/20/politics/robert-mueller-rick-gates/index.html
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster, Putin played you by employing Republican hate politics for losers.
“Indictment: Russians also tried to help Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein presidential campaigns
It turns out Donald Trump wasn’t the only candidate the Russians allegedly tried to help during the 2016 presidential campaign.
A 37-page indictment resulting from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation shows that Russian nationals and businesses also worked to boost the campaigns of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Green party nominee Jill Stein in an effort to damage Democrat Hillary Clinton.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/17/indictment-russians-also-tried-help-bernie-sanders-jill-stein-presidential-campaigns/348051002/
OldMacDonald aka KGB Trumpster is full of AppleButter. Here comes a hateful applebutter Republican HRC rant.
HRC is the loser, and everybody lacking principles enough to support her, rather than Sanders, helped her lose.
Children blame their losses on the other team, on the opposition, never on their own shortcomings.
Adults look at their own shortcomings when they lose, and resolve to do better.
IF you were better informed, rather than too stupid to distinguish shit from apple butter, you would know that the historical goal of the Russian propaganda machine, all the way back to the birth of the old USSR, has been to do whatever it could to weaken the West.
That’s still the goal, you little nincompoop.
The idea is to weaken the West. Period.
This is such old and commonplace knowledge that the only people who don’t possess it are nincompoop liberals who used to go around pooh pooing about conservatives with more sense being concerned about the commies.
Now the fact remains that HRC was such a lousy candidate she lost to the lousiest candidate the R’s have ever run , period.
I have never and never will defend Trump. I just tell it like it is, no matter the subject matter, as best I know how.
You’re only a little partisan worm unwilling to ever consider even the possibility you put your money on the wrong horse.
And I’m still waiting for anybody who wants to engage me in a defense of her ethical record, lol.
We can start with Cattle Gate, since the members of this forum are generally mathematically literate.
Now the truth is gradually emerging about why the Russians are so eager to help Trump, since it’s a payback time, in addition to the fact that they undoubtedly realized that if he won, he would be a disaster as president.
He’s been in bed with them since back when, one way or another, but like HRC, he’s good at covering his tracks, at least to the extent that his partisans can pretend he’s clean.
I will continue to do what I can, like any good coach brought in to help a losing team get back to winning again.
The first thing the D’s need to do, in terms of winning back the WH, next time, is run a candidate with half way decent polling numbers, one without a baggage train reaching back to the earliest days, and one that doesn’t take the people who are the heart of the party for granted….. one who doesn’t hold the core people of the D party in contempt. One who doesn’t hang out with banksters, instead of campaigning at least once or twice in the states that USED to be the HEART of the party, lol,.
And one who isn’t too busy raking in countless millions of slush money from scum bag foreigners doing business with the federal government in general and the state department in particular, while sec of state. Sure, it was all free of expectations of favorable treatment. Donations to her family slush fund crashed like a rock after she lost.
Face up to it, you backed a loser.
Just about every big D Democrat I know well now,personally, excepting a few gray hair women who worship HRC, is now willing to admit privately that they made a big mistake in backing her.
That mistake won’t be repeated, lol. I’m doing my part to make sure of it.
Thanks for your help.
The more you rant like a child, the quicker anybody paying attention will give my comments due consideration.
Mac,
You and HB don’t seem to be getting anywhere. You seem to be talking about the primary vote, and he seems to be talking about the general election vote.
Would it make sense to make that distinction, and separate the two issues?
“that the historical goal of the Russian propaganda machine, all the way back to the birth of the old USSR, has been to do whatever it could to weaken the West”
Hey Applebutter breathe, it’s the tough sanctions Obama and HRC imposed on Russia for invading the Ukraine behind the election propaganda you fell for. Jill Stein, who you voted for was to busy having dinner with Putin to put on her pantsuit and grow a backbone. Jill was weak on Russia, Trump is compromised and Bernie was to busy with his fairy tale give away free healthcare and college. Your Republican HRC hate overwhelmed you to see the big picture.
AppleButter Breathe (R)
Clinton had the most experience to move the country forward after Obama. She had seen how the executive office works first hand. Four years at Sec. of State, 8 years in the senate and 8 years as first lady. She would have done more good in her first month for your jobless drug addicted friends than Trump will ever do in his life time. She kicked Bernie’s ass by 3 million American(not Russian) Voters in the primary.
Where is your outrage on 130 White House employees without a security clearance ? Show me one comment you have made on the subject. Because you uses to get a boner over HRC’s emails. How times have changed. Now you can’t even get it up.
“She kicked Bernie’s ass by 3 million American(not Russian) Voters in the primary.”
A little less than her count of victory in California.
Subtract California, and the other 49 states had a Trump victory.
But Sanders would of won easily, if not for Dim interference.
I could care less, as I didn’t vote (being a California resident -I was actually living in Mexico, it was meaningless anyway).
(Kamala Harris was a much superior candidate– but she had a easy victory)
Anyway, as from someone on the Left, in matters little.
Anyone committed to reformist politics at this point is not paying attention.
Not a registered Dim, the primary was off limits.
“I didn’t vote”
A lot of squeak coming from that training wheel. Let me know when your voice counts.
OldMac isn’t looking for any help with his big boy overalls.
HRC’s emails are, so far as any body with a working brain is concerned, obvious evidence of a powerful desire to work in the shadows, hiding things that ought to be part of the public record from the public.
I simply can’t imagine the decibel level of the howls of D outrage had a REPUBLICAN candidate who was holding such high office routinely used a secret home brew email system for government business. Yet most Democrats were more than willing to sacrifice their principles in order to defend her.
Anybody who BELIEVES otherwise is a goddamned idiot, and any body who pretends otherwise is simply a partisan liar.
Now as far as reporting on the many shortcomings of the Trump administration, I probably post about as many links and comments about them as anybody here.
But you see I don’t find it necessary to take care of that chore all alone. Some other forum members also contribute links about the Trump crowd’s crooked dealings.
At one time or another I have posted comments to the effect that Trump makes HRC look like a girl scout, lol.
HB – “Show me one comment”
AppleButter – “I don’t find it necessary”, “At one time or another I have posted comments”, “other forum members also contribute”
That’s what I call AppleButter soft and fake outrage
Environmentalists Say They’re Averting Climate Disaster. Conservatives Say It’s Terrorism.
The post-9/11 rhetoric vilifying environmentalists is making a comeback.
Foster hadn’t killed anyone. He didn’t even injure anyone when, on Oct. 11, 2016, he put on a white hard hat and neon-yellow safety vest, grabbed some bolt cutters, and clipped the chain locking a fenced section of the Keystone Pipeline in Walhalla, North Dakota. Once inside the fence, Foster cranked a giant wheel-like valve until it closed, temporarily stopping the flow of tar sands oil.
“In order to preserve life as we know it, and civilization, and give us a fair chance and our kids a fair chance, I’m taking action as a citizen,” Foster told another activist, Sam Jessup, who live-streamed the action. “I am duty-bound.”
In October, a judge convicted Foster and Jessup of felonies ― including criminal mischief and conspiracy to commit criminal mischief ― carrying maximum sentences of 11 to 26 years in prison. Earlier this month, the judge sentenced Foster to three years in prison; Jessup received two years of probation. (Other valve turners have faced up to 10 years in prison and $20,000 in fines.)
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pipeline-environmentalist-terrorism_us_5a85c2ede4b0058d55672250
WARMING COULD BREACH 1.5C WITHIN FIVE YEARS: UK MET OFFICE
Background warming and natural cycles could push warming beyond 1.5C, within a decade of nations agreeing to try and keep it below that limit. “We should remember that the Paris Agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion,” said Dr Doug Smith from the Met Office Hadley Centre. Prof Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at the Met Office, commented: “The global pattern of heat would be different to a more sustained exceeding of the Paris 1.5C threshold. Early, temporary excursions above this level of warming are likely to coincide with a large El Niño event in the Pacific.”
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/31/warming-breach-1-5c-paris-limit-within-five-years-says-uk-met-office/
Oh, those guys that seem to have ignored the Arctic and Antarctic in estimates of global temperature. We will see, the Arctic is already above 1.5C. I think the Met is in for a big surprise, if they ever actually measure global temperature.
Hedging their bets I see.
NASA shows that global average temps have already crossed 1 degree C and seasonal anomalies are as high as 2C globally. Land based global anomaly is at 1.8C. Northern extratropics (23.6N – 90N) has already hit 2C average anomaly.