Comments not related to oil or natural gas in this thread.
Thanks.
232 thoughts to “Open Thread- Non-Petroleum, December 20, 2017”
I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization. Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?
Hi Gonefishing,
The price of fossil fuels will rise especially after a peak is reached for each type. As that occurs people will use less and demand for alternative energy sources(solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear) will increase. As that occurs economies of scale and innovation will reduce the costs of non-fossil fuel energy leading to faster demand growth for this type of energy and relatively lower demand foe fossil fuel.
How quickly this transition occurs is difficult to predict.
Fish — In the case or Norway, which gets virtually all its electricity from hydro (renewable), the two “Johans” will be coming online in the early 2020s: Johan Sverdrup (2-3 BBbl) and Johan Castberg (0.5 BBbl). This will be followed by exploitation of reserves located in the Arctic (already started). According to my Niece, these developments have been made possible by reducing production costs from an initial level of 80 USD/bbl to about 35 USD/bbl. So, every barrel of oil (and gas) will be extracted.
There is a lot of discussion about this in Norway but it seems the oil and gas industries’ momentum will prevail over arguments about leaving anything in the ground. Exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is also accelerating in spite of high production costs. Perhaps it will be different for coal but not if your Great President can help it. 🙂
Although somewhat dated in it’s cost numbers, this article about an MIT study seems to reflect just what is happening today: a price war between fossil energy and renewable energy. How far will it run is indeterminate at this time, but it currently appears as if fossil fuels will give renewable energy a run for it’s money. In recent years, proponents of clean energy have taken heart in the falling prices of solar and wind power, hoping they will drive an energy revolution. But a new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests otherwise: Technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions.
While renewable energy has made promising gains in just the last few years — the cost of solar dropped by about two-thirds from 2009 to 2014 — new drilling and extraction techniques have made fossil fuels cheaper and markedly increased the amount of oil and gas we can tap into. In the U.S. alone, oil reserves have expanded 59 percent between 2000 and 2014, and natural gas reserves have expanded 94 percent in the same time.
“You often hear, when fossil fuel prices are going up, that if we just leave the market alone we’ll wean ourselves off fossil fuels,” adds Knittel. “But the message from the data is clear: That’s not going to happen any time soon.”
YOU WON’T BELIEVE WHAT SAUDI ARABIA’S OIL PRODUCTION COST IS
“According to data from energy industry consultant Rystad Energy, on average it cost Saudi Arabia less than $9 to produce a barrel of oil last year. That’s the cheapest in the world, though fellow OPEC countries Iran and Iraq can produce for around $10 per barrel as well, which is well below rival nations.”
I can’t remember where, but I have read within the last two or three years that it costs the Saudi’s about twenty bucks a barrel to produce new oil. I presume this is in the ball park, considering inflation and so forth.
It’s a dead certainty that they paid for the infrastructure needed at their old fields a long time ago, so that nine bucks figure is likely what it costs them in actual day to day expenses per barrel.
Hi Doug,
Perhaps North Sea Oil (or Barents Sea) can be produced at a cost of $35/b, but 2.5 Gb of oil doesn’t really get the job done in a World that consumes 30 Gb per year.
If you have spent any time on the oil side of this blog lately or at Rune Likvern’s blog (Fractional Flow), the US LTO output needs about $80/b or perhaps $90/b (when debt is included) to be profitable. This resource is also quite limited (maybe 100 Gb worldwide for a very optimistic estimate) maybe about 3.3 years of current consumption levels.
Technology may tend to drive down costs, but scarcity of easy to extract resources due to geology and physics will tend to drive up costs of fossil fuels over time. Eventually this is a battle that technology will lose unless we rewrite physical laws. 🙂
Less mature technologies such as wind and solar are likely to have more potential for technological innovation in my view.
Chart below shows 11 year centered average real oil prices from 1880 to 2011, costs in the long run determine prices.
Doug,
I was having lunch with my son today and while we were eating he received a call from ‘head office’ confirming his flight back to one of the Oil sands projects he works at…..right after Christmas. Some major construction work is just winding down but layoffs seem temporary even in the construction field.
He is an industrial electrician doing a maint and construction role as foreman. It is a very good job.
To quote son, “It’s almost the new year and they will be ramping up as soon as the holidays are over”.
I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization.
Ah, yes! Such a simple question…
Well, maybe I’m off on a bit of a hyperbolic tangent here, but I had been thinking of ways to better depict how ecosystems function and was exchanging some thoughts with a computer scientist who does network modeling, and asked him if it might be possible to use slime molds to map out network node connections in 3D scafolds and maybe create a 3D virtual reality model of those connections in real time with actual data inputs.
The connection to this first node in my constellation of data points is the fact that the Circular Economic principles are purported to mimic healthy, fully functional ecosystems to some degree and Kate also embeds the entire economy deep within the earth system boundaries and the ecosystem on which we all depend.
The tie in here is that the entire ecosystem depends primarily on solar energy flows which are converted to basic organic building blocks through photosysnthesis. Lot’s of food for thought there for our energy hungry brains which require more energy than any other organ to fuel electrical impulses among all our billions of neurons. Personally I think this might be a huge waste of effort and may even end up proving to be maladaptive in an evolutionary sense.
Our Ascidian protochordate cousins seem to have solved this problem by jettisoning their spinal chords and brains and becoming sessile filtering organisms after their initial free swimming larval stage.
Now there’s a smart move if ever there was one, they seem to have not a care in the world! Their deep sea ignorance is bliss.
So back to the surface for a breath of air… your question about transitioning away from fossil fuels made me think of the Club of Rome and Donella Meadows leverage points so I went looking and found some of her lectures and was struck by the relevance of what she says about energy, sustainability and the system, with regards to our current predicament. Given that she has been gone for almost 20 years her prescience is truly remarkable and she even makes a reference to US presidents, which made me smile somewhat ironically.
What I think is truly relevant to your question is what she says about paradigm change in her paper titled “Leverage Points, places to intervene in a system’
Surely there is no power, no control, no understanding, not even a reason for being, much less acting, in the notion or experience that there is no certainty in any worldview. But, in fact, everyone who has managed to entertain that idea, for a moment or for a lifetime, has found it to be the basis for radical empowerment. If no paradigm is right, you can choose whatever one will help to achieve your purpose. If you have no idea where to get a purpose, you can listen to the universe (or put in the name of your favorite deity here) and do his, her, its will, which is probably a lot better informed than your will.
It is in this space of mastery over paradigms that people throw off addictions, live in constant joy, bring down empires, get locked up or burned at the stake or crucified or shot, and have impacts that last for millennia.
So the point of my ramble is, we could, should we collectively wish to do so, end all use of fossil fuels within less than a decade and transition to 100% renewables. We are not married to any paradigm!
Of course we should not waste our time and energy trying to convince those who still are.
Cheers! 😉
Of course you are right, we choose our paths every day and can choose new ones. As I sit here I am collecting solar energy to heat my home, lowered the thermostat and have not used my car for the last three days. Did travel a bit on Monday but it was ridesharing. The news about ANWR has spurred me to try and reach zero carbon burn earlier than planned.
I am merely observing the current reality which goes against the tide of enthusiasm for the early demise of fossil fuels. I had suspected this might happen but events lately have indicated to me that the fossil fuel industry is quite resilient and is not going to give up until forced.
I think people will start to smarten up but it’s a long process set against a rising tide of humanity and lifestyle.
But yes, thank goodness, there are new paradigms developing. How fast they will catch on is indeterminate, but I doubt if they can be stopped at this point (unless civilization implodes).
Much of the population has a flexible mindset, but a certain relatively large portion is in lockdown. That portion has control over the reigns of business in many cases and deep political ties. The advantages of true economics is running up against the wall of false economics. The old paradigm is globally installed and absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground. Prying it loose will take time and taking time means greater losses.
The old paradigm is globally installed and absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground.
I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization,
In my view it is very simple. The current system is already unsustainable therefore it will either be phased out by unanimous decision and replaced by civilization 2.0 or else it will just crash burn. Then if anyone is left they can start from scratch. Good luck with that.
Just think of that video you posted recently from NASA on aircraft efficiency gains. There are just so many things that are happening. Plus the old guard is getting to the point where they are literally dying out. That makes paradigm change a lot easier.
Case in point when I purchased my condo over a decade ago my snowbird neighbors were still driving their cars down from Canada and New England. Well every year since there are fewer and fewer of them left, may the R.I.P.. Our population has shifted to much younger local Floridians.
Fred said”I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization,”
OK Fred, what happens if all the fossil fuels stopped tomorrow. Is there a valve we turn that puts something else in it’s place and works with all our current systems? No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Come on Fred, it is necessary right now. Maybe not at some future time, but it is in place now globally.
You can talk about a possible future all day long, but I was talking about now and into the near future. We are totally dependent upon fossil fuels. That is the problem we need to fix.
OK Fred, what happens if all the fossil fuels stopped tomorrow. Is there a valve we turn that puts something else in it’s place and works with all our current systems? No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Ok, I did split my statement in two separate comments but to be fair what I said was:
1) we should be able to transition from fossil fuels in a decade if we go all out to do so.
So the point of my ramble is, we could, should we collectively wish to do so, end all use of fossil fuels within less than a decade and transition to 100% renewables. We are not married to any paradigm!
You can disagree with that time frame and say it is way too optimistic. but it is not quite the same as saying:
No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Those would be your words, not mine. Here are mine:
2)The current system is already unsustainable therefore it will either be phased out by unanimous decision and replaced by civilization 2.0 or else it will just crash burn.
The phasing out refers to what I said or at least meant to say, was that if we do not deliberately phase out the use of fossil fuels in a relatively short time frame, then whether we want it to or not, the system will crash.
So yes, if we do not seriously make and implement plans for this transition and we allow the system to crash by default then we will have no one to blame but our collective selves.
To be clear I see ample signs that a transition is already underway. The Chines have 5 year plans I don’t see why we can’t launch ourselves into a global 10 year plan with the goal of leaving fossil fuels behind.
Is 10 years enough time? I don;t know but I never said it could happen overnight.
Of course Fred, some of the systems to replace fossil fuels are starting and growing. There is much work to be done and much needs to change before we can say we are safe from fossil fuel depletion. You know I am all for the change.
It was you, not me, that said we were not dependent upon FF. We are, that will change.
My concern is that we will become so semi-dependent that the worst case scenarios of GW will play out and a lot of damage will occur since we will be only partially prepared instead of in full transistion.
Let’s hope that there is enough collective sense to force a faster, better transistion away from FF burning for energy. We have enough to deal with otherwise without falling completely into our own traps.
“Is 10 years enough time?” No. The global transistion will take 30 years minimum even with a huge effort. It will take to near the end of the century with normal effort, petty national squabbling and power moves.
The human race will be distracted in many different ways over the next few decades by multiple predicaments and problems they face. Getting billions of people in different cultures and nation states to focus on energy transistion will be one of the biggest achievements of mankind so far.
But I agree, one of the major global efforts should be to leave FF behind. Many disagree, many agree, most are not on board either program.
Would you be more agreeable is I included the implied present tense “currently” in my sentence?
“The old paradigm is globally installed and currently absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground”
Yes, I think we are pretty much on the same page…
It was you, not me, that said we were not dependent upon FF. We are, that will change.
Close but no cigar! 😉
What I said was:
I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization
By stating that it is the currently the defacto operating system, I was implying that we are indeed dependent on fossil fuels at present. So again, I fully agree with you there.
Where I believe I was not clear enough and may have led to possible misinterpretation is this part of my statement.
I do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization
By that, I was simply trying to imply, that at least in my view, it is certainly possible to envision the operation of a society and civilization which doesn’t depend on the use of energy derived from fossil fuels. I’m quite sure if you put your physicist’s hat on, you would probably agree, at least in theory, this much is possible.
One last point and then I’ll leave it be, especially since I think we are not all that far apart on what needs to be done asap! Semantic quibbles, minor misunderstandings and time frames notwithstanding.
The thing about paradigm change is that it can happen in a blink of an eye.
Doesn’t really matter anyway Fred. Unless the mindset of humanity changes dramatically toward respecting and caring for all life on this planet, things will end badly no matter what materials we have or how we generate the energy.
Humanity has set itself up on a porcelain throne.
Humanity has set itself up on a porcelain throne.
Doesn’t mean we can’t switch to a composting one 😉
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I think that the obsession with energy generation will be put behind us in the near future, and we will start focusing on storing transporting and conserving energy.
The reason is simple: Renewables are trashing the energy business, so there won’t be any lobby pretty soon. No lobby for production, no production.
A lot of problems that seem like energy problems to many people aren’t really. For example, if your house is cold, you might have an energy problem, but you probably have an insulation problem. Even in extreme climates, most houses could be energy neutral or net exporters.
As long as there are people making money selling energy, the mind set will be to generate more. When money runs out, people will stop caring about it so much.
The history of mankind can be seen as a race to build bigger and bigger fires. There were a few pauses along the way to improve harvesting, like water mills and sailing ships, but they were the exception. Today, harvesting marginal energy sources has gotten so good that building bigger fires isn’t profitable any more. Now we are faced with the challenge of dispatching the more or less free energy we harvested. That’s not enough of a hassle to generate electricity from fossil fuels, but enough of a hassle to discourage waste.
The fact that energy is basically becoming free doesn’t mean we will consume more and more, unless we find new applications, like desalination. The reason consumption won’t increase is that other restraints will come into play. For example, electricity is cheaper than a tank of gas, so the market will move there. But batteries lack the energy density of liquid fuel.
So Teslas, for example, have aluminium bodies, to save energy. This isn’t to save money, it’s there to increase range. Aluminum has been kept out of the car industry until now by the high energy density of liquid fuel. Sometimes it makes sense to save energy even if its free at the margin.
Renewables are often trashed as a poor replacement for “real” energy sources, and renewables fans always come back with a stirring “nuh uh!”
Actually renewables are a terrible replacement, but for something nobody really needs much of, since most energy is wasted anyway.
The reason renewables are taking down the energy industry is not that they are a great source of energy. It’s that they are so cheap they suck the profits out of selling fuel. The turbine builders are already dying — look at Westinghouse, Siemens, Mitsubishi, General Electric (and Alstom), EDF etc. They are the canaries in the coal mine.
The rot hasn’t hit the oil markets yet, but it’s just a matter of time, because oil companies need internal combustion engines to survive. ICEs are like cathode ray tubes — a beautiful technology that got destroyed by solid state electronics. A big part of the car industry is motors. When the car industry starts getting hammered, short the oil stocks.
Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?
Of all the questions I have ever been asked on this blog, this is the one that I can easily answer and I have the utmost confidence that my answer is correct.
The answer is: We simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract!
That is definitely not what I want to happen. It is simply what will happen.
Ron’s a little hard headed in his old age, just like me, lol, and not apt to change his mind about human nature. Neither am I , although I’m a little younger. I still buy green bananas, and have changed my mind about a couple of things in recent years.
I agree with him, we will continue to burn fossil fuels so long as it’s feasible to extract them. That’s the way naked apes behave, that’s the way we’re programmed, and nothing will stop us from it, short of a one world government on a religious mission to stop it.
ButLet’s not forget that fossil fuels can be like a beer, or glass of wine, or shot of bourbon. Alcohol is really bad stuff in large quantities, but it’s ok and even good for us in small amounts.
We don’t need to totally eliminate the burning of fossil fuel, unless we decide using ff is a SIN, and get religious about it. We DO need to cut back the amount we use to a very minor fraction of what we use today, unquestionably, for all the usual reasons so often repeated.
It’s politically feasible to do that, given time. We don’t need an all powerful one world government to do that. We have pretty good control already of anything that moves in international commerce other than diamonds, other precious stones, drugs, physically small weapons, etc , all of which fetch extraordinarily high prices and are cheap and easy to mine or manufacture, and not all that hard to conceal in transit.
So…….. the various larger and more powerful countries that have good enough leaders will continue to push the development of renewable energy, and discourage the use of ff AS fuel. As time passes, increasing population , depleting supplies, and cheaper renewable energy technologies will fan the fires of the transition until it’s a raging inferno…….. in some countries at least, such as Germany, France, and Norway.
Maybe even here in the USA, Trump and the Republicans won’t be in power forever. I’m thinking the pendulum is already swinging decisively in favor of the Democrats, who are equally as stupid and craven as the Republicans in some respects, but they’re an order of magnitude better, or at least an order of magnitude less idiotic, than the Republicans on the big picture environmental issue.
How long will it take? Hell, it may not even HAPPEN. We may fight WWIII as the result of hot fights started for any number of reasons, and bomb ourselves back to the stone age.
But in thirty years we can giterdone, mostly, close enough for government work. Depletion and rising prices on the one hand, and improving energy efficiency, changing lifestyles, and cheaper renewable energy on the other, taken together, will make it possible.
The countries that don’t have fossil fuels and want to import them can be strong armed into doing without , for the most part, and the countries that will have them available in sufficient quantity to export them in meaningful quantities will be growing fewer , and hopefully wiser and richer.
Australia for instance has an ungodly amount of coal, but the Australian people are environmentally awake, and not only that, they are economically tied to the rest of the richer western countries to the point they will HAVE to go along with leaving their coal in the ground, so as to avoid sanctions that will cost more than coal can bring in, and in their case, they have a SUPER DUPER sunny climate. They’ll figure out how to run their houses and ESSENTIAL 24 hour infrstructure on stored solar energy, and how to run their industries and ordinary businesses during the day when the sun is out…….. which it is, damned near every day, over most of the country.
Who knows what the Russians might do? I don’t pretend to know, long term, but now that they have freed themselves from the idiocy of the centrally planned commie economic model, I’m thinking they will get to be pretty prosperous and maybe even get rid of their power mad government in favor of one better suited to this century….. given time.
Venezuelan’s are going to throw out the Maduro regime sooner or later, sooner in my opinion, and hopefully they will have learned a few lessons about depending on oil to pay their bills, and organize their new society on the basis of producing most of their own food, and having stuff to export other than oil and so forth.
I believe the people of Canada likewise will mostly do the right things, environmentally and economically as the decades go by.
I strongly reccomend that each and every member of this forum pray daily to the Sky Daddy or Sky Mommy or Rock or Mountain or Tree or Snake or whatever diety or delusion best suits his own fancy for a series of Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events.
It will be cheaper to pay for the damages caused by a few super hurricanes, super droughts, super floods, a few super fires, and super outbreaks of pestiferious insects that eat up a staple crop here and there, than it will to delay changing the way we do things until the time window to make the necessary changes grows too small. AAA
We need sufficient incentives to get our collective asses in gear, and I don’t see any such incentives, other than WAKE UP events, as likely coming to pass.
It may be that they will be extracted al long as it is profitable to do so.
High prices will be oil’s undoing, it will make it profitable, but gradually people will become more efficient and start to substitute other forms of energy, this will drive down the costs of alternatives due to economies of scale and then oil prices will eventually start to fall as demand for oil falls under supply, less and less of the resource will be profitable to extract and the shrinking oil industry will become less efficient driving costs up and making even fewer resources profitable to extract.
Essentially in my opinion it is only feasible to extract oil that is profitable and so a lot of the resource will never be extracted, in my view.
This simply requires a properly functioning market economy, the process could be accelerated by good public policy on energy such as that found in Europe and China.
GoneFishing Wrote:
“I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization. Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?”
For the most part: Yes. We already extracted the easy oil. All that is left is the expensive Oil in deep water, arctic, and shale. That said we probably won’t extract all of the coal.
That said the bigger challenge is what happens to the environment of the planet after another large scale collapse when the amount of accessible resources (energy, petrochemicals, fertilizers) is no longer able to support the global population. Odds favor another global war as the large nations fight over the remaining resources or because of the pending debt crisis. A nuclear war and Nuclear power plant meltdowns will likely make the most of the earth un-inhabitable.
Gone Fishing Wrote:
“How far will it run is indeterminate at this time, but it currently appears as if fossil fuels will give renewable energy a run for it’s money.”
I don’t think Technology has been the driver, Its the cheap and easy credit that provided the funding. For instance Shale LTO & gas has been funded by cheap credit. If you look at the balance sheets of any LTO/TG company is floating on a sea of debt.
“Shale oil drillers who generally couldn’t deliver positive net income at $100/bbl oil continue drilling campaigns easily funded by debt and equity issuance. But while presentations by many of these companies show decent shale oil well rates-of-returns, or IRRs, with WTI at $50/bbl and even $40/bbl and below, these presentations typically omit such all-in costs as infrastructure build (gathering lines, water disposal, etc. etc) and, of course, the big one: interest payments on debt.”
Alot of this debt begins to mature starting in 2019 and explodes by 2023. Unless the drillers can refinance the debt before it matures, most of them will go bust.
As far as Non share drillers, most cancelled reserve replacement projects because they need about $120/bbl to be economical. Instead they opted to drill wall street with stock buybacks & purchasing smaller Oil companies as a way to replace their reserves.
There are always new methods being developed to lower costs and increase productivity.
Zipper fracturing and multi-layer fracturing are two of them.
It’s hard to predict what new innovations will occur in both the FF and the renewable regions.
Does not matter. Those companies are drowning in debt & the bill is coming due in 2019.
FWIW: New tech cannot ignore the law of physics. The amount of LTO per cubic meter is limited since it contained in mostly low permeable rock.
Silly Q: Primary Energy Source on Planet earth shall be Almighty FUSION – Safely from 1 AU “Astronomical Unit” away as we depreciate remaining stored “HHC” Holy Hydro Carbon aka. Stored Solar. However never underestimate Ape’s resourcefulness to consume the Holy HHC reserve.
What will be the Future Crude vs Light Carbon/Gas consumption? Is the current low pressure/room temperature Liquid infrastructure at risk as fuels lighten? Having experience with pipes, tanks and wires, wires appear to be the future in terrestrial energy.
* or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract? *
Will Water Limit output at some point? How much of this oily water is returned to the surface?
Will the used water make drinkable beer? https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2017/12/16/Oil-or-Water-
This one is concerns the Russian sock puppets and trolls.
La Nina is starting to fade away without having done much to drop global temperatures; El Nino looking more likely for the end of next year (on top of recent near record temperatures, and possible continuing positive phase of PDO).
I think we need some paradigm change! 😉
We do have a paradigm change. We continue to wrap the planet in a thickening layer of insulation. At the same time we are losing the cooling fins of the planet. Please don’t ask for more change Fred. I don’t want gators in my lake. 🙂
BTW, why does Florida use so much electricity?
Here’s a little paradigm change in action for you…
Los Angeles wants to field a completely electric fleet of buses by 2030, and it just took a large step toward making that a reality. The city’s Department of Transportation (which runs the largest municipal transit in the county) has acquired 25 of Proterra’s smaller 35-foot Catalyst buses, all of which should arrive in 2019. That may not sound like much, but it’s a significant chunk of the DOT’s 359-bus fleet. The deal promises real savings, too — it should eliminate 7.8 million lbs. of greenhouse gas emissions per year and save $11.2 million in energy and maintenance over 12 years.
BTW, dunno what people have against gators, they’re actually solar powered and very energy efficient. No, really.
Crocodilian skin is composed of scales made from keratin, which is the same protein as hooves and horns, making it extremely tough. These bumpy scales also act like solar panels, which absorb heat from the sun. This heat is slowly radiated back into the crocodilian’s body after the sun has gone, which allows them to maintain a higher metabolic rate and remain active far after other reptiles have fallen back into an ectothermic stupor.
And did you know they even sing love songs to their mates? You should go out into the Everglades some moonlit summer night…
BTW, why does Florida use so much electricity?
Stupid buildings that need too much AC.
Ireland appears to be behind on it’s renewable energy initiative. The farmers are getting quite grumpy about it.
From the same link posted by GF. What kind of place is it that issues a country wide warning such as this?!
A status orange fog warning has been issued for the entire country by Met Eireann and it is set to remain in place until midnight tonight.
Maybe we could be repurpose it on twitter as a social media alert about McDonald Trump’s rapidly declining mental state…
Warning! Nationwide Orange Fog Alert! 90% Twitter Storm Chance after 10:00 PM tonight…
Aye, you are full of the blarney today. Should be a Red Fog Alert for him.
“The issue of RED level severe DT warnings implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties;”
You seem to have a pretty good feel for politics, and so, living in Florida, you ought to have some ideas as to how long it will take for the state and various local governments there to get around to supporting solar power.
What’s your opinion ?
Things are changing, all over, and although the pace of change may appear to be glacial, or as old mountain folks say, like molasses in January, to younger people, it seems pretty fast to me, and appears to be getting faster every year.
My generation is the last one that really takes the old Sunday School and Leave it to Beaver social model seriously, and we’re disappearing fast. Younger people who may believe in Jesus, but who also believe in astronomy and deep time and sexual equality and all sorts of heresies ( sarc light ON ) are taking our places at an accelerating pace. The girls at most churches these days that have bodies worth flaunting show up in clothes that make it easy for the boys to appreciate them, lol.
I can’t say that I know of even one American man anymore who seriously advocates women being denied the vote, although a few joke about women’s suffrage being the turning point that marked the eventual ruin of the country.
Cigarettes are out , pot’s in. Free love came in, the birth control pill came in, and neither will go away again, at least not within the easily foreseeable future.
None of the younger people I know get more than a minor fraction of their news from what old folks s think of as the MSM….. network television, a daily paper, one of three or four news magazines, the way it was back when I was young.
They get their news and information from the net, and on the net, there are dozens, hundreds, of credible sources that are frequently extremely critical of the establishment, and of what we old farts think of as the msm.
Rhetorical question, how many people past sixty or so think of publications such as The Rolling Stone as part of the msm establishment, as opposed to the alternative establishment?
I can remember believing that I would never live to see the dayI would trust the STONE to a greater extent than the NYT, lol, but that day passed ten years ago , maybe longer. Now I feel compelled to read both , to the extent time allows.
( I just read yesterday that the STONE is being bought up by some sort of conglomerate, so maybe super reporters such as Matt Tabbi will have to find new places to work.)
You seem to have a pretty good feel for politics, and so, living in Florida, you ought to have some ideas as to how long it will take for the state and various local governments there to get around to supporting solar power.
What’s your opinion ?
Ok here’s my two cents worth.
First, I’m obviously in favor of any progress in providing clean renewable energy over fossil fuels.
The state and local governments are already on board with promoting utility scale solar. In my view this is not what I think actually benefits most Floridians. I would like to see the government help the implementation of distributed rooftop solar for homes and businesses and community smart grids. They do not seem to see this as something in their immediate best interest. So there needs to be educated self interested citizens groups acting on a more grassroots community organizational level. That is happening but slowly and the power (no pun intended) is still on the big player’s side.
This blog post is representative of what I think is a counter productive mindset that incentivizes the monopolistic power of the utilities at the detriment of a more decentralized and democratic energy distribution for the people.
Note: I would probably vote for a younger incarnation of an independent Bernie/Bernadette Sanders if one were to emerge onto the political scene. I obviously do not identify politically with most of the men my age in the Sunshine State 😉
Cheers!
Note I still think Mr. Jack Rickard of EVTV who is by his own admission a climate change denialist and Trump support has Solar right with his selfish solar concept. He has just posted his latest EVTV video and he has some really cool gadgets to show
He is into more power for the people and I have to agree!
Re: EVTV.ME – Jack has some neat stuff – especially cracking the Pak bus. but note a couple of things:
1. Batteries > 48V Nonomial not allowed in US for residential per NEC Code, NFPA, Utilities, Insurance cartel. – Wonder why – think about it.
2. Traction type Li Oxidie Battery not really suitable for stationary use. Jack had one hell of a fire in his shop. LFP/Fife/LifePo4 are superior in every way but one.
If you do it, put it in a detached doghouse. Tesla market share may not be 1% of EV in 5 years???
3. The Solution is Battery specific – It should work with multiple Li Battery and it should provide Power if you remove the Battery or EV.
4. While secondary battery use is cool, Better and safer just to use an EV with DCFC plug. Let’s hope Jack open’s his eyes on the Potential. does not get that yet. Tesla paks are 10K+ that’s still > $100kWh. , you can buy used EV’s for less. Granted only Tesla’s are high capacity. ~90kWh.
1. Batteries > 48V Nonomial not allowed in US for residential per NEC Code, NFPA, Utilities, Insurance cartel. – Wonder why – think about it.
I just looked up the Tesla Power Wall nominal voltage and it is 50 volts DC… They are designed to be daisy chained.
Think of a full Tesla 75 KWh battery pack as a bunch of power walls connected in series then the resulting modules connected in parallel 😉
But putting a battery pack out back in the tool shed would work for me. A large solar array can easily put out 600V DC and a fully charged Tesla car battery puts out just under 400V DC. While improperly handled Li ion batteries might be a fire hazard the high DC voltage should not be an issue.
Just check for current with a volt meter before doing any work on the system…
“Just check for current with a volt meter before doing any work on the system…”
Check for current with a volt meter? Then check voltage with an ammeter. 🙂
Check for current with a volt meter? Then check voltage with an ammeter. ?
Well, either way, but resistance would be futile, if not downright shocking…??
Weld now, I’m quite positive there’s some potential there, but I’m currently neutral, trending toward negative on the issue.
The DC Powerwall is discontinued. It was a 400 V Battery crippled with a 400>50V DC-DC converter. We installed several – they were available only to Tesla owners in most regions. Forget Tesla as a Residential Storage supplier. Goldman sacks hype. Power wall sales mean not selling EV’s ! Tesla must focus on mass production of Model 3’s or else. The only UL9540 approved Battery solutions so far are LFP type which excludes TSLA. Powerwall II AC is not available to Solar Installers. Possible only to Solar City which is in freefall and likely be rebranded as Tesla. SolarEdge StorEdge uses LG RESU now. Tesla 129 MWh Aussie Pak deploys Samsung SDI cells. Tesla at this point not in the game and the Powerwall nightmare continues to fool the energy illiterate. Model 3, Model Y production means Yugh storage for RE but we must have millions.
One our Customer systems – 6kW of PV, 2 DC Powerwalls with a Model S – 70 miles/day . Needs 6 kW more to zero out.
Note 35% of Self consumption trips thru the Battery. This could be much less if they deployed demand management on EV Charging.
Yeah, somebody didn’t do the math on that one.
All the roof they had – 6kW. Need Carport. Would have come close to annual Net zero if not for the EV. Model 3 on order. System Net Metered ie. behind a single utility meter. Other wise you would not have the term “self consumption”. Make no sense to most people why you would do this, they botched Energy De-reg in the US. Normally NO PV production meter in Net Metering, but a StoreEdge system does all this internally. Before US Utility PV, Most PV Production was behind the meter – Invisible to the TPTB.
Something is off there. Does the customer have a mig welding shop set up in his garage?
Unless this video is hype or maybe paid false advertising? 5kW array, 1 Tesla Power Wall II and a 75kW Tesla he charges off the system.
IIRC Internal Charger in the Model S is ~11Kw, but most (40A Breaker Size) EV chargers in the US is limited to 32A=7Kw. EV’s can limit charge rate, it’s part of the Handshaking for the AC Charge Port. The Lowest you can limit a Model S (P90D)is 5A. Input voltage is 1 PH 85-277V in NA. You can dial charging down under 500W. So there are Ice Chest size chargers for EV’s. LIMIT Charging from eChem from eChem. Gets expensive. Example: PV Power cost .10, PV Power thru Li Battery ~.40 cents, PV Power thru 2 Li Battery trips ~.70 cents. Just add .30 cents/kWh for each Battery trip.
Powerwall II’s on Order for a Client (He’s 1st in Line – Roadster founder) . So mid 2018 Delivery ?? No UL Listing so we will put them on a Firewall underground post Inspection. Li Metal Oxide Batteries make me nervous south of 38 degrees latitude. They are Tesla Fanatics and can’t talk him into a Sonnen System.
It’s great that there are some outspoken anti climate science people out there , such as Jack Rickard, who are preaching and living the renewable energy sermon.
They are the only people who can easily and readily establish communication with the people who believe forced climate change is all about hot air , pun intended, and getting grant money, and controlling their lives…….. and yet get and hold their attention when it comes to renewable energy and electric cars, etc.
I have been able to gradually bring maybe three or four climate skeptic acquaintances around myself to the point they now believe in renewable electricity and maybe even putting up a decent sized pv system of their own, and buying an electric car, sometime within the next few years. These are old guys, and they really like the idea of spending ten or twenty grand and getting it all back, and then some, by saving on the purchase of electricity and gasoline.
They BELIEVE in inflation, since they all fondly remember when SUPER was thirty five cents, and their electric bill was ten bucks instead of a hundred. The fact that they don’t believe in forced warming DOES NOT MEAN they don’t believe in locking in their expenses.
We often make the mistake of thinking, and OH SO MUCH WORSE, saying people who are climate skeptics are stupid, ignorant, deluded, pick your own insults.
People of all persausions and camps are like computers, which generate results according to the quality of the data you feed into them.
It’s NOT THEIR FAULT, as a rule, that they’re more or less technically ( scientifically ) illiterate.
They do precisely the same thing all the young women I know do, which is accept the word of the people they look up to as being true. The vast majority of young women I have met believe in forced climate change, but not because they know shit from apple butter about physics, chemistry, biology, or math. Hardly any of them, excepting the very small minority studying for STEM careers in STEM take even ONE real course in the physical sciences, and the ones who aren’t getting four year degrees don’t often take even a SURVEY course in the sciences.
It’s just a happy accident that since the D’s are right on issues important to them personally, such as the socalled right to choose, control of their own bodies, civil rights, personal freedoms, etc, that they are D’s ……. and the D’s are by accident again the party that’s right about climate science.
Bottom line, these young women believe in forced climate change, to the extent the issue crosses their mind…….. because they believe what prominent D’s tell them to believe.
It’s interesting to note that a significant percentage of R’s defy the position of their cultural in group, the R party, on climate.
It’s not unusual at all to run into a hard core conservative who has near zero use for the overall D social agenda who nevertheless believes in forced climate change….. such hard core R types are almost invariably technically well educated.
Quite a few of them tell pollsters they believe in forced global warming, and a lot more believe in it, but seldom or never say anything about this belief publicly.
I know some of this sort, just as I know some hard core D’s who own guns and are perfectly ready to shoot anybody who rapes their wife or daughter or breaks into their house……….. but these D’s seldom say much, if anything at all, in public, contrary to the overall D gun control agenda.
Now when it comes to FAULT, and BLAME, it may be a little over the heads of people who are so stupid they think they are smart ……. BUT
Anytime you label people who are your potential friends and allies as stupid and ignorant, you predispose them to voting for your political enemies.
ONE of the dumbest thing liberals do is make fun of social conservatives and working class people, take a second breath, and then wonder why social conservatives don’t vote WITH them, instead of AGAINST them, even when doing so means they are voting against their own best interests.
Sometimes the truth is so simple over educated idiots cannot comprehend it.
Bill Clinton, one of the sharpest politicians ever, got it, when he said it’s the economy stupid. He purely and simply had the touch, he understood people, and what was on their mind at any given time and why.
Well, most people who voted R are going to be sure that it’s to the credit of the R party if the economy does well between now and the next election, whether this is true or not.
And the equally valid flip side of that coin is that they vote their COMMUNITY and CULTURE.
It’s the culture war, stupid.
This remark is aimed at those who need to hear it, assuming they actually DO want the D’s to win elections so as to protect the environment, etc.
Now in case you don’t really care, and just want to have some cheap fun, well, it’s still a more or less free country.
The Trumps and the Koch brothers are celebrating your stupidity but don’t expect them to thank you.
How long will it take to replace stupid buildings in Florida with smart buildings?
If I recall going from R2 to R2 is about a 1000 year cycle…
The good news is most of the glass towers in the greater Miami area are at about R1.5 so maybe a just few more decades. Of course a good hit from a Cat 5 could speed the process up a bit.
ROFL
Current US policy is to replace like for like or worse.
NAOM
Happy New Year everyone, or rather to all fellow pagans present. NB winter solstice (in Northern Hemisphere) was at 8:28 a.m. today (Pacific Time). 🙂
Thanks Doug, things will be looking brighter soon.
So we are over the hump and will be seeing more daylight again from here on. Yay!
Happy New Year to you and yours as well!
Yaaaay! Yule! Next for Saturnalia.
NAOM
Brilliant darkness on the Solstice – U R an Energy Slave – You will Pay up- The question now will be which states citizens pay for this Godzilla, likely will be the most expensive object on Planet Earth. Hello FERC – free the Georgians. The primary reason this expansion is to make room for decades more of spent fuel rods in unhardened pools that are not “suitable for such use”. Fukushima indeed a mess, but a Level 7 event ONLY because of Power Failure. Never happens in a power plant or an Airport. Right? Can one even get their head around unzipping the DNA of all lifeforms via Radionuclide release in the Biosphere. Possibly the worst way for slow death. http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/commission-voting-on-georgia-powers-plant-vogtles-future/667115708
How fast can we transition to a low-carbon energy system?
Historians of infrastructure like myself observe a typical pattern. A slower innovation phase is followed by a “take-off” phase, during which new technical systems are rapidly built and adopted across an entire region, until the infrastructure stabilizes at “build-out.”
This temporal pattern is surprisingly similar across all kinds of infrastructure. In the United States, the take-off phase of canals, railroads, telegraph, oil pipelines and paved roadways lasted 30-100 years. The take-off phases of radio, telephone, television and the internet each lasted 30-50 years.
The history of infrastructure suggests that “take-off” in renewable electricity production has already begun and will move very quickly now, especially when and where governments support that goal.
How much renewables could be produced for that and for that matter some of it could be producing already? How much energy could be saved per house for that much money – a lot more than that white elephant might produce, if it ever gets working?
NAOM
Nuclear energy is obsolete outdated technology and is a throwback to the early days of steam engines.
It has to be one of the least cost effective and most dangerous means to produce steam that has ever been devised. Other than very specific niche applications like submarines, it has got to be one of the most uneconomic means of energy production still used in the 21st century! You can put a solar plant online and producing clean energy in less time than it takes to make preliminary drawings and start the permitting process for a nuclear power plant. The emperors who promote this monumental stupidity are butt naked and should be shipped to the Siberian outback in mid winter wearing nothing but their hubris.
The Case of the 80 MPG car.
Hyundai is producing a hybrid that gets 58 mpg combined mileage. Cost of the car is about $22,000.
Cost of gasoline even at four dollars a gallon would generally be below $1000 per year for most drivers.
Their plug-in hybrid will go 27 miles on a charge and has a lifetime battery guarantee, so it will be easy to get that 80 mpg with no battery concerns and no range limitations. Both under $30K.
Will the hybrid take over the transport system, giving the EV time to evolve and get the charging systems/renewable energy systems developed. At 80 mpg, the EV has little advantage as far as fossil fuel burn is concerned, until the grid gets massively taken over by renewable energy.
Yeah, that kind of transitional technology makes a lot of sense. I think Hydrogen fuel cell technology is starting to look like it might be a viable storage medium for EVs as well. Let’s face it the horses are barely out of the gate and some of them may stumble and throw their jockeys.
Here’s another article:
Accelerating The Global Transition To 100% Renewable Energy
The time is ripe. We need a strong political and social movement to accelerate a global transition to 100% renewable energy. Otherwise, more and more regions around the world will fall victim to wars fought for the last fossil fuel reserves.
20 million climate change and war refugees are reason enough to overcome the remaining obstacles and to complete the global transition to 100% renewable energy by 2030 at the latest.
Given that we are only 2 years from 2020 that’s only 12 years to 2030 so not a huge way off from my own optimistic estimate of a decade.
Published on Mar 31, 2015
Neo-Carbon Energy creates a solution for a zero emission energy system that provides renewable energy for everyone.
Showcasing how we might be able to piggy back the transition on much of our already existing global infrastructure. No need to throw all that out with the oil if we don’t have to…
The video makes no bones about openly stating that the fossil fuel Industry as we have known it must die and reinvent itself. The sooner the better!
There’s no reason at all, as far as I can see, that we can’t have cars suitable for commuting and fetching groceries that get a hundred mpg with off the self tech, and have them at a very cheap price, if they aren’t loaded up with luxury features.
VW built a bunch of experimental / demo cars called the XL1 that got well over two hundred mpg. The biggestc single key to this phenonemal fuel economy was reducing the frontal area and overall areo drag load, which was easily accomplished by going to a fore and aft seating lay out rather than the conventional side by side layout.
Getting a hundred mpg in a similarly designed car but without the exotic materials and technology ought to be easily doable.
It looks as if all the established car companies are afraid to actually build such a car, for now, for fear it won’t sell…… but the next time gasoline prices spike……. maybe somebody will.
Let’s hope the safety ninnie nannies don’t make it impossible. Killing a few people in less than optimally safe enclosed cars is a better deal than forcing lots of people to ride two wheelers. Not many people walk away from motorcylce and scooter accidents at highway speeds, especially if cars and trucks are involved.
Forcing people who can sacrifice a larger portion of their income to buy bigger and less fuel efficient cars means they have less to spend on other things…. such as health care, or more efficient appliances…… and also means burning more coal, drilling for more oil, more pollution…..
There’s always a bigger envelope, a bigger picture to be considered.
<I?There’s always a bigger envelope, a bigger picture to be considered.
Yep! And ‘CARS’ as we have known them, are probably going to be a smaller and smaller part of that big picture…
But one thing that most people have not yet grasped is that human transport is going to be electric and ICEs are definitely not going to be around for very long outside of museums and private collections
Published on Dec 2, 2017
Robert Llewellyn popped along to ‘Autonomy & The Urban Mobility Summit’ in Paris, October 2017, to see how the electrification of transport could really change the world for the better.
From AI robot on a lost space freighter to supervising creative reuse projects (Junkyard Wars), now doing his green tech programs, Llewellyn has certainly been around. He has some great stuff on renewable energy, backup batteries and EV’s on YouTube.
The EU just gave Uber a punch in the head with their decision that Uber is a taxi service and not a software service. This means making all the drivers employees and all the rest that goes with a taxi/black limo service. Let’s see how they handle this change in business model.
Wonder how the laws about autonomous vehicles will be framed.
Wonder how the laws about autonomous vehicles will be framed.
My hunch is that Uber’s long term business strategy has always been a driverless future. So much for all the rules and regulations around having employees in the taxi/black limo service industry… They don’t plan on having any employees driving and I think they have made the right bet. I think they will be also be expanding into the autonomous drone transportation business as well.
The government bureaucrats currently employed in the taxi limousine regulatory division need to get with the program and start focusing on how they will tax the Ubers of the world to acquire funds for a universal basic income and how they will distribute those funds to all the displaced taxi drivers.
Food for thought, the Uber drivers already have the home addresses of all those government bureaucrats…
A model of the EHang 184 autonomous aerial vehicle is displayed at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai on Feb. 13, 2017.
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Yep, the robots of the world will be running the show if we last that long. Uber of the future will not even have a person in the whole corporate structure (maybe as legal window dressing).
Autonomous flight. Sounds good, though I have imagined much more efficient aircraft in our future. In the future, get on my smartphone, order up a flight. Walk to the nearest designated opening in the forest canopy and get picked up then dropped off where I want to go.
No need for cars or even paved roads.
If we last that long.
As far as the EHang 184 design, I would put the blades up top above the cockpit/people/terrain.
Walk to the nearest designated opening in the forest canopy and get picked up then dropped off where I want to go.
Yep, just give them your three word address and they will pick you up at your tree house in the Amazon rain forest! Free downloadable App available.
What3words (w3w) has a surprisingly simple and efficient way to find an address and get you there. The London startup has divided the world into a grid pattern of 57 trillion 3m x 3m squares and given each one a unique 3-word address.
Maybe they can use the EHang 184 to prune the forest canopy… 😉
If anyone wishes they can meet me at mongoose.inaccurate.jingles which is an artificial reef just north of the Dania Beach fishing pier.
Looks like King Coal is really a knave in the US despite the trumpeting tweets. U.S. electricity generation economics have completely reversed. Building new coal is more expensive than building new renewable energy across the U.S. and in many parts of the country, keeping existing coal plants open is more expensive than building new wind turbines (and solar, in some places). From 2007 to 2016, 531 coal units representing 55.6 GW of capacity were retired across the U.S., at an increasingly rapid pace.
The Tesla big battery is having a big impact on Australia’s electricity market, far beyond the South Australia grid where it was expected to time shift a small amount of wind energy and provide network services and emergency back-up in case of a major problem.
Last Thursday, one of the biggest coal units in Australia, Loy Yang A 3, tripped without warning at 1.59am, with the sudden loss of 560MW and causing a slump in frequency on the network.
What happened next has stunned electricity industry insiders and given food for thought over the near to medium term future of the grid, such was the rapid response of the Tesla big battery to an event that happened nearly 1,000km away.
Even before the Loy Yang A unit had finished tripping, the 100MW/129MWh had responded, injecting 7.3MW into the network to help arrest a slump in frequency that had fallen below 49.80Hertz.
Data from AEMO (and gathered above by Dylan McConnell from the Climate and Energy College) shows that the Tesla big battery responded four seconds ahead of the generator contracted at that time to provide FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services), the Gladstone coal generator in Queensland.
Tesla Battery, the First Responder to the power grid!
“On August 17th, scientists around the world witnessed something never seen before: One hundred and thirty million light-years away, two neutron stars spiraled into each other in a spectacular explosion that was studied by observatories ranging from gamma ray detectors to radio telescopes. The blast confirmed several key astrophysical models, revealed a birthplace of many heavy elements, and tested the general theory of relativity as never before. That first observation of a neutron-star merger, and the scientific bounty it revealed, is Science’s 2017 Breakthrough of the Year. Especially remarkable was the way the event was spotted: by detecting the infinitesimal ripples in space itself, called gravitational waves, that the spiraling neutron stars radiated before they merged.”
“As President Donald Trump nears the end of his first year in office, the relationship between the maverick Republican and the U.S. research community is deeply dysfunctional. It’s a breakdown of epic proportions, with no obvious fix. One reason for the estrangement is Trump’s action on science-related issues: He has renounced the 2015 Paris climate accord, rolled back many environmental rules, and called for deep budget cuts at key research agencies. In addition, many scientists are alarmed by research-related appointments he has—and has not—made. At press time, there was still no White House science adviser, and Trump has chosen several people to oversee federal research programs who lack serious scientific credentials.”
The disruption of the EPA mission should be horrifying to the public. Anyone see strong reactions to this?
No, not really, except for maybe in a few isolated pockets of scientifically literate communities. Unfortunately the US population as a whole does not rank very high in scientific literacy so the people do not have much of an understanding as to how horrific the current EPA’s actions under Scott Pruitt and the Trump administration actually are!
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While they try to find new reasons to mine more coal, while the populous places many millions of dollars in the hands of the fictional depiction business that fuel our delusions (Star Wars), we are entering into a methane emergency situation in the Arctic. Without the continuous ice cover, the Arctic Ocean is warming enough to affect methane hydrates down to over 100 meters in depth. Cracks in the undersea permafrost are allowing passageways for trapped methane and some large regions are also tectonically active. Not just increased warming from sunlight on open ocean, but larger flows from warmer Arctic rivers are entering the Arctic Ocean.
The land based permafrost is also showing breaks that allow deeper GHG’s to escape.
So we have both a fast and slower rate of excursion of the strong GW gas methane as well as additional CO2.
There is no sense in pushing Congress or the Whitehouse on these matters at this time, the scientists do not even agree on broader details. So we have fairly poor communicators who are not forming a united front, mostly due to a reliance on inadequate models rather than actual field data and observations. This in the face of a political and popular anti-science movement.
We can only hope for after the fact responses at this point in the US and much of the world. That loses most of any leverage we might have, but we are a very creative and innovative species and fear gives us motivation.
What we really need is more funding directed into other carbon sequestration techniques. For instance, at this very moment there’s a rig in North Dakota finding a spot for the state’s lignite coal burning mines and plants to pump CO2 straight in to the ground. Besides setting up the coal infrastructure for a cleaner future, later the CO2 could be used for enhanced oil recovery nearby in the Bakken and Bowman County. The latter would likely be first because the state has been planning for a CO2 pipeline and CO2 treatment plant in that region already.
Funding!? Slow down there comrade Marx!!
Clean coal please meet clean bitumen er I mean a high quality, light, low sulphur synthetic crude oil.
Coal? No thanks, I’m not in one of those historical reenactment societies.
Low quality Brown coal, looks like Coyote Creek Mine is planning to produce 60 million tons of coal, or less, over it’s lifetime until 2040. Thirteen square miles of land to feed one power plant, since the feeder mine is asking a higher price. Wonder how they are going to get the coal to mine. At almost 7000 tons of coal a day that is a lot of coal trucks. Big AC powered dragline to get the coal but don’t see anything about coal delivery to the plant.
Dakota Westmoreland mine is laying off 95 workers since the contract to the power company is gone over to Coyote Creek. No real gain in employment.
Meanwhile, ND is the state with the highest wind capacity and is going gangbusters with wind energy. Set to double the 2016 production by 2018.
Like the shirt says, I lived through Obama now you can live through Trump. Certainly this would apply to scientists as well, right?
Some people lived through the Dark Ages and the Bubonic plague too. Given the choice they might have preferred the Renaissance or the Enlightenment.
Feel sorry for the brainwashed kid wearing that shirt. At his age my kid was taking AP math and science classes. His T-shirts had Feynman diagrams.
Now why don’t you go back under your bridge, like a good little troll.
Hey Bob, it imploded once under the last Republican president. Be prepared for an even bigger one this time.
You guys really keep screwing things up. Very bad track record.
Don’t worry about the scientists, they are just a very small percentage of the population and are not being listened to anyway.
It’s the engineers you have to watch out for. They want to give you lots of clean, non-polluting energy and actually design the stuff that does it. Also it’s the businessmen, they take all that engineering and set up EV production, wind turbine companies, high tech batteries and PV systems. They are tough and smart, so watch out for them, especially when they work with good engineers.
Looks like those kids are waiting for the short bus to pick them up for school.
From Doug’s link:
“I am having a hard time figuring out how to interact with the Trump administration,” admits Shirley Tilghman, a molecular biologist and president emerita of Princeton University. “I had no difficulties with prior Republican administrations because, despite our policy differences, I had faith in their fundamental integrity and commitment to scientific inquiry,” says Tilghman, a Democrat. “I do not have the same confidence in the Trump administration.”
That is a truly extraordinary and chilling statement from a scientist and president of a top tier American University.
It’s hard to feel much sympathy for them since they were warned (repeatedly) that this would happen once a conservative got elected to the White House, unless they stopped acting contrary to the American way of life. Well, what they probably thought wouldn’t happen did happen in November of last year. Anyway, Merry Christmas, everyone.
Bro. Tom,
Yeah, they should have known better than to act “contrary to the American way of life.” I mean, fuck all that science shit! If we want to go to Mars, then by dog we’ll go! And the climate had goddam well better just do right, or we might just kick all the water out of the fukin bathtub!
Merry xmas to you too, and maybe Santa will bring you a pony.
LOL!! The current occupant of the White House is a conservative, in the same vein that a 1 ton wrecking ball, is a building component repurposing tool!
And if you truly believe that someone who has a Doctorate in Microbiology and is also the president emerita of Princeton University, is anti the American way of life, then maybe you should spend a few years in Siberia just to get a better sense of perspective. You sound like a low level Russian troll trying to get a promotion and a raise! I think you are trying too hard!
Not even the long totally dark period of winter was enough to stop forests from growing above the Arctic Circle.
The Arctic Forest of the Middle Eocene Lush forests, dominated by deciduous conifers, existed well north of
the Arctic Circle during the middle Eocene (∼45 Ma). The Fossil
Forest site, located on Axel Heiberg Island, Canada, has yielded a
particularly rich assemblage of plant macro- and microfossils, as well
as paleosols—all exquisitely preserved. Methods ranging from classical
paleobotany, to stable-isotope geochemistry, have been applied
to materials excavated from the Fossil Forest and have revealed layers
of diverse conifer forests with a rich angiosperm understory that successfully
endured three months of continuous light and three months
of continuous darkness. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions suggest
a warm, ice-free environment, with high growing-season-relative
humidity, and high rates of soil methanogenesis. Methods to evaluate
intraseasonal variability highlight the switchover from stored to
actively fixed carbon during the short annual growing season.
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.
Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.
We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one.
This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.
In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008.
It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.
It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.
Maybe it will finally pull the rug out from under some of the entrenched oligarchy. No, I’m not holding my breath.
Last year it was 8 men, then down to 6, and now almost 5.
While Americans fixate on Trump, the super-rich are absconding with our wealth, and the plague of inequality continues to grow. An analysis of 2016 data found that the poorest five deciles of the world population own about $410 billion in total wealth. As of 06/08/17, the world’s richest five men owned over $400 billion in wealth. Thus, on average, each man owns nearly as much as 750 million people.
That is seriously fucked up!
Yeah, that is discriminatory. The world’s richest billionaire women are definitely poorer than the world’s richest men. 🙂
If those men gave all their money to the bottom half, it would be just a little over $100 per person, a one time distribution.
If we evenly split the WGP between everyone it would be about $13,000 per person. If you make more than $13,000 a year, somebody is coming up short elsewhere.
Now if we divided up all the property (including forest and agriculture assets) in the world it would give each person an additional one time value of about $33,400.
Even in an evenly distributed world, we would not be rich. Some would be better off and some would be worse off. Most people in developed countries would run out of money before the year’s end.
There just isn’t enough money in the system to function properly. Or to put it more succinctly, money does not value the world properly.
I could have a fistful of diamonds but if the rains don’t come and there is no food or water anywhere, what good are they? Yet in the human world of commerce and economics I would be rich or at least well off. Dead, but well off.
Obviously the current economic thinking has got something fundamentally wrong. Being rich with diamonds is meaningless if you don’t have friends, and a healthy environment. However leaving 5 super wealthy individuals with all that economic clout in control of the economy doesn’t quite seem to be working either.
So back to the concept of circularity and a new paradigm where we don’t waste natural resources or people. The following video has some surprising numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_lDCP_JYV8 When circular economy models are implemented in a conventional, linear fashion, important environmental, social, and economic opportunities are easy to miss. Conversely, when circular models are implemented and scaled through a system-wide lens, the landscape becomes full of opportunities that, when harvested, become a foundation for high-performing economies, vibrant cities, and high quality of life. http://www.thinkdif.co
Thanks Fred. Excellent video. She echoes the thinking of the 2002 book Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (by architect William McDonough and chemist Michael Braungart) but with an economics and “thriving” layer as well.
Edit: Just found this quote:
Cradle-to-cradle design (also referred to as Cradle to Cradle, C2C, cradle 2 cradle, or regenerative design) is a biomimetic approach to the design of products and systems that models human industry on nature’s processes viewing materials as nutrients circulating in healthy, safe metabolisms.
Demand for land for food is going to double – at least – by 2050, and triple – at least – by the end of this century. This means that pressure to clear many of the world’s remaining tropical rainforests for human use is going to intensify every decade, because this is predominantly the only available land that is left for expanding agriculture at scale. Unless Siberia thaws out before we finish deforestation. By 2050, 1bn hectares of land is likely to be cleared to meet rising food demands from a growing population. This is an area greater than the US. And accompanying this will be three gigatons per year extra CO2 emissions.
More “fortunate” countries, such as the UK, the US and most of Europe, may well look like something approaching militarised countries, with heavily defended border controls designed to prevent millions of people from entering, people who are on the move because their own country is no longer habitable, or has insufficient water or food, or is experiencing conflict over increasingly scarce resources. These people will be “climate migrants”. The term “climate migrants” is one we will increasingly have to get used to. Indeed, anyone who thinks that the emerging global state of affairs does not have great potential for civil and international conflict is deluding themselves. It is no coincidence that almost every scientific conference that I go to about climate change now has a new type of attendee: the military.
Been saying all these same things in less refined language for years. Fences. Guns. Dead bodies piled like cordwood at national borders. National and state parks put to the plow. Victory gardens. People DRAFTED, military fashion, into any position where they can help produce food. People going back to the land, grubbing in the dirt, to secure their own personal supply of potatoes and beans. Chamber pots instead of toilets, the unspeakable becoming the precious treasure.
In China a century back,people built toilets on the edge of the road, hoping any body traveling on the road would use them, their “deposit “being promptly removed and lovingly sprinkled in nearby fields.
Millions of people leaving places such as New York, traveling to the Southeast, or any place where there is land that can be farmed, small scale, where the weather is at least semi suitable.
Whether we CAN produce enough food to support ten billion or more people, long term, is an open question, but speaking as a professional in the field, I believe it’s technically possible……. if the cards fall ok. There’s no assurance of that, no assurance that there won’t be uncontrollable outbreaks of various pests, super droughts that wipe out entire bread basket regions some years, economic problems that result in catastrophic shortfalls of fertilizer production, hot war, political stupidity on the level currently demonstrated in Venezuela and North Korea, total breakdown of civil government, followed, in LUCKY communities and countries by relatively benevolent martial law…..
There’s PLENTY of reason to believe that the world is headed to hell in a hand basket, and that we will arrive there within this century, and probably within the lifetime of some people who will read this comment within the next day or two.
But ….. given good luck………. There’s also reason to hope that some of us in some places will pull thru ok. There are no guarantees, but it’s altogether possible that ENOUGH of us will perish as the result of overshoot that we quit producing pollutants on the grand scale, quit destroying what’s left of the biosphere on the industrial scale, that there won’t be a wide spread nuclear WWIII, etc.
Mother Nature is full of bullet holes already, and bleeding profusely, but She’s an extraordinarily tough old bitch, and if we die back SOON ENOUGH, she will recover. for the most part. ….. She’ll never be the beauty she was a few centuries back of course. But lots of naked apes are still functional and happy even though they have lost some of their mental and physical abilities……..
Unless the climate goes totally to hell, we Yankees have everything ESSENTIAL to pulling thru, including enough land, water, mineral resources, industry, and military power adequate to repel any enemy eyeballing our fruited plains, timber, coal, and hot young blossoms, lol.
We sure as hell won’t be living the way we do NOW, during and after the crisis, but we do have a fair to good shot at living reasonably dignified lives with electricity, water and sewer, food on the table, etc.
Lots of unexpected but welcome events could come to pass over the next few decades. It’s altogether possible that the birth rate in a number of countries will fall a LOT faster than expected. There may be game changing breakthroughs in agricultural technology that enable us to produce enough food in some countries that are currently food importers.
I actually expect renewable energy to get to be cheap enough that we can use it lavishly on jobs such as desalinization of sea water, or the diversion of rivers hundreds of miles to places where the water can be used for irrigation. Building new houses, and retrofitting older ones to be super energy efficient is a task well within our means, and can be accomplished by diverting resources from such uses as buying a whole new fleet of cars every fifteen years or so, and putting half those resources into better homes and buildings, with half the other half going to build cars and trucks that are REALLY and truly needed, and that will last indefinitely, because they will be BUILT to last, the way my old farm machinery is built to last. The last quarter can be used to build more wind and solar infrastructure, or water treatment plants capable of capturing the nutrients we are currently flushing away, or more mass transit.
It’s hard to see any likely humane solution to the problems facing people in places such as the poorer parts of Africa, where birth rates are still high, and economic development way behind, and the resource cupboard already bare in some cases , and soon to be bare in others.
Maybe more fortunate people will be willing to sacrifice a significant part of their own standard of living to keeping the people in such unfortunate countries alive.Maybe. For a while. Maybe such people will come to understand that their only hope, as individuals, and as societies, is to quit having children.
Maybe some super rich person will donate a hundred bucks, and a computer and solar panel and a light to any young couple or any young woman in such a country that is willing to undergo sterilization.
Priests have been known to reinterpret their holy books. Maybe the priests that dominate some societies will figure out that their own living standard and their own personal safety and security depend on their reinterpreting their particular philosophies in such a way that having more than one kid is a sin, maybe even a sin requiring a good horsewhipping or worse.
Maybe a disease such as the Spanish Flu but even more virulent will break out in such countries and pretty much solve their population problem FOR them. Once the shit is well and truly into the fan, stopping such a plague disease in a country falling apart will probably be impossible.
Just stopping it from getting a good toehold in rich countries may prove to be impossible.
It will take a herculean effort to get the equivalent of 2 Billion people living off fossil fuels by 2030, and that leaves 6 Billion others still in full burn. You can’t stop this train on a dime.
I think we will burn all that can be extracted for the equivalent of less than about $100 (in todays dollars), and maybe much more.
Ron is right on the magnitude of overshoot, and most everyone else here is just trying to be hopeful. Thats how I see it.
Sure, even if some regions go full out renewable they will sell their FF resources to others that still use it. Not many will keep it in the ground if it turns a profit.
Hi Gonefishing,
Substitute forms of energy in the future will be cheaper than fossil fuel. Demand for fossil fuels will decrease, price will decrease and less of it will be profitable to extract.
There may be a little technological progress in extraction (though I would argue that 99% of that has already occurred), but there is little incentive to invest in research and development in an industry that is declining. There has not been a lot of progress on buggy whips in the past 100 years because nobody cares about them.
The same will be true of fossil fuels in about 30 to 40 years.
Land and coal.
About 10 million acres of land is coal land in the US, larger than Rhode Island. This does not include the pollution plume areas around these mines or the roads and railroads to service them, or all the ancillary facilities related to coal. These mines mostly feed the 600 coal power plants across the US, with unknown land area on each one. The ones I know about have been over 200 acres each. Figure another 200 square miles with extra land for ash disposal.
This is generally land that has no access or other use, unlike wind power or some solar. Also the mines are eventually closed and new mines have to be opened up elsewhere, unlike renewable PV and wind that can exist there essentially forever and do not pollute the surrounding countryside or the air and water.
Estimate: Solar thermal energy requires about 16.4% less land than coal, and wind power requires about 96.3% less land than coal, to produce a given amount of electricity over a 60-year period. Solar PV uses about 33% less land (or even less because it can be on buildings).
THE biggest SINGLE problem , in my estimation, with wind and solar power, is that you have to pay YEARS AND YEARS UPFRONT for the relatively small amount of electricity produced per day per dollar invested.
It’s hard to pay for stuff NOW that we won’t be using for another twenty years.
It seems certain that in places with plenty of cheap land and an excellent solar resource, not to mention cheap labor, lol, solar power is now competitive on a straight up dollar and cent basis with little or nothing in the way of subsidy, compared to burning coal, without having to argue the case for solar in terms of environmental consequences.
What I’m wondering about now is this.
About how much longer will it be until new solar capacity is cheap enough to compete, without subsidies, with coal , on a strictly dollars and cents basis, in places with a more TYPICAL solar resource?
Let’s say for instance North Carolina versus southern California.
I don’t know the answer to your question OFM, but I am surprised a system hasn’t developed to allow the average person to pay the solar cost over 30 yrs- in the form of a Solar Bond. Should be able to pay 3-5% I expect. Would be inheritable, and allow purchase of a solar share anyway in the country.
Season’s Greetings, from The Baffler.
He’s a mean one, Mr. Trump. He really is a heel. Scrooge, Grinch, Simon Legree: they’re elements of his brand, what keeps fans coming back. His kind of merry villainy is usually found only in opera, where nefarious baritones like Scarpia from Tosca deliver rousing arias about the joy in screwing others over. We should have seen this coming the moment the GOP picked the Heat Miser as presidential candidate. Only we’d need a capacity for suspending disbelief that we’ve since grimly honed just to make it through another day under the surreally nasty dispensations of the Trump presidency. It’s taken a continual effort of the collective national will simply to imagine this living incarnation of a flaming-haired, stop-animated villain from a 1970s Christmas special actually becoming president. Then to imagine him stepping into a role he’s likely coveted since he bullied whoever had it in his grade school Christmas pageant: the jolly old elf who, with a visible sneer, calls the impending $1.5 trillion tax cut a “Christmas present for America.”
A brown-paper neutron bomb tied up with strings, this gift joins so many others the administration already laid beneath our tree. I bet that box with the big red bow is the shiny new concealed carry law that greeted Sandy Hook family members visiting the Capitol on the day it went before Congress (and a delight to New Yorkers like me who feel the city’s main problem is not enough handguns on the street). This sits right next to December’s presidential recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel, a firm push to swing terrorists that should radicalize the Middle East by Feast of the Epiphany. That big box back there is the cataclysm that Santa fast-tracked by pulling out of the Paris Accords, to please a small number of misinformed workers and really just because, Fuck you. Which brings us to GOP’s trillion-and-a-half-dollar stocking stuffer for themselves and several friends, which should fill us all with holiday cheer until we try to sell our homes, educate our children, fall ill, or 2027, whichever comes first.
LOL. Thanks!
A top 10 coldest Christmas on record is on the way for Northern Minnesota.
Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events
BTW, it is summer in the southern hemisphere right now but just last year…. A heatwave in southern and eastern Australia sends people flocking to the beach to beat the heat. Adelaide is having its hottest Christmas Day in decades and has become the hottest capital city in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology says the temperature in the South Australian city reached 41.3C (106.3F) at 3.50pm.Dec 26, 2016
This year’s Christmas forecast is much cooler than last year so Santa will need less sunscreen on his beer belly!
However if last summer wasn’t bad enough This past winter Australia had it hottest winter ever recorded!
The 2017 winter was the hottest since 1910 when national records began, according to Bureau of Meteorology figures released today.
The average maximum daily temperature recorded across all Australian recording locations for June, July and August 2017 was 23.7C.
That is a whopping 1.9C degrees above the baseline 1961 to 1990 average of 21.8C and smashes the previous record of 23.4C set in 2009.
I do understand how jet streams work. Anyone who knows the teleconnections and checks up on them could see this North American deep freeze coming due to the very negative EPO and weak positive NAO. MJO mainly in Phase 7 then helped things along. The result is a jet stream delivering a record cold air mass. Weather weenies usually are interested in any strange weather, including record temperatures, therefore I shared the weather story graphic National Weather Service put on social media. If you have a problem with the image, talk to them. They created it.
Did your mother have any children that lived?
Just makin’ sure the silent watchers have the other side of the story. 😉
I think you might be on to something. I just looked in my freezer and there’s ice in there!
(You have fun doing that shit, don’t you?) You remind me of a retarded boy I used to see many years ago. He’d go into a phonebooth, drop a dime in, ring a number, say a few words, then hang up and laugh his ass off. And that’s a true story, so help me dog.
It got real dark tonight Bob. Will the sun ever come back?
Stanley Wells said it well “You remind me of a retarded boy “
These were the actual Christmas morning lows and wind chills in North Dakota.
Now that Christmas Day is over, we can see how close to reality the National Weather Service temperature forecasts in the graphic above were. The forecasts were quite good.
Observed high temperatures for December 25, 2017:
Duluth, Minnesota: -8 °F , 4th coldest Christmas on record
International Falls, Minnesota: -13 °F, 2nd coldest Christmas on record
Brainerd, Minnesota: -6 °F, 4th coldest Christmas on record
Hibbing, Minnesota: -11 °F, coldest Christmas on record
Hayward, Wisconsin: 3 °F, 3rd coldest Christmas on record
Shutdown Starts For Coal-Fired Plant Serving US Southwest
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — The first of two units to be shut down at a coal-fired power plant that has been serving customers throughout the American Southwest for decades is no longer in operation, officials with New Mexico’s largest utility said Tuesday.
Unit 3 at the San Juan Generating Station was turned off just after midnight and another unit at the four-unit plant will be turned off this weekend as Public Service Co. of New Mexico works to meet a federally mandated deadline for the closure.
The partial shutdown is part of an agreement with state and federal regulators and other stakeholders to reduce haze-causing pollution in the Four Corners region, where New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Utah meet.
Years of negotiation went into crafting the agreement because
There is always a back story to these shutdowns. Usually they are old facilities being fed by equally old mines. In addition to the environmental groups pressure and lawsuits, the writing is on the wall for the mines running out in the near future. There have been other coal plant closures in recent times in the Four Corners region and at the Nevada border for similar reasons. NOx limits enforced by the EPA have been a key instrument in the shutdowns and in some cases, dismantling.
Why invest in expensive needed upgrades and maintenance when the plants might only be able to run another decade or so on their own mine sources? I wonder how much subsidies or tax breaks went into those deals.
We like to think we are safe, at home and at work in our daily routines. In reality we are ignoring all the dangerous situations that exist all around us because we don’t see it happening very often (unless you talk to firemen and emergency service people).
We run electrical wires through combustible wood in our homes, they are wrapped in electrical wiring and devices. We have tanks of fuel oil in the basement, or propane tanks next to the house outside feeding the gas inside. We have fireplaces, electric heaters and gas stoves. At work it can even be more potentially hazardous.
Sure we install protective systems, but systems fail, leaks happen and once in while all hell breaks loose.
Horrifying as it is when a home or business burns or explodes, it was nowhere near as horrifying and potentially dangerous as this one example back in 1980 when a maintenance team dropped a socket from a wrench and the unthinkable happened.
Yep, there was both a PBS documentary and a movie made about that accident. I watched the documentary a couple years ago. The take home message is that so far we have been extremely lucky and that chances are high that our luck will run out sooner or later. Humans are fallible!
A high school buddy of mine ended up in a Titan Missile Base after graduating. He got injured by a leaking fuel accident.
Fred — Highlights of my year were:
The study of acoustic signals and the supposed spoken language of the dolphins (T. I. Vyazemsky) and, predictably, the neutron star merger on the edge of the galaxy NGC4993 — easily the most-studied event in the history of astronomy. Credit for discovering the dolphin research paper goes entirely to you. Thanks ever so much,
Doug
Doug,
You are being too kind, sir!
Re: The NGC4993 neutron star merger, we should probably take our hats off to the giants upon whose shoulders the science and technology that led to that collision being detected via gravitational-wave emission by LIGO. My mind is duly blown by that accomplishment!
As for accepting all the credit for discovering the dolphin research paper, I must confess to being forced to acknowledge the fact that what led me to it started with discussion in the thread discussing fourier analysis. Not to mention that a large part of the credit must be shared with my personal scientific research assistant, IRIS.ai 😉
Cheers!
Fred
So where is the methane? NASA images showing methane around the globe.
Is Washington tacitly operating under a new monetary theory? What the United States and Japan share in this regard is that each issues its own sovereign currency. That means both could theoretically retire their entire government debt in one day by issuing sufficient currency to buy up all the outstanding bonds. (A smarter way would be to do this very gradually without announcing it. In the alternative, the legislature could pass a law requiring government bondholders to sell their bonds back to government at a pre-determined price—something bondholders would certainly dislike since the price is likely to favor the government.)
What this tells us is that any government that issues its own currency will never run out of money to pay back bondholders.
Merry Christmas to Friends at Peak Oil Barrel! Today and tomorrow are days to rejoice in your beliefs, whatever they may be, then think about the blessings of the day. Merry Christmas and thank you also to the writers of Peak oil Barrel! Ya’ll allow us all to be better informed citizens about American energy.
Merry Christmas to you and yours. I pray for the day to be glorious, for God’s richest blessing’s to give comfort in good time and bad. In our household every Christmas is celebrated as another year of being blessed with good health, prosperity, and the freedoms of living in the United States of America, the greatest country the world has ever known.
You have got to be Russian. No one else believes that crap.
No sir I am born and bred American. Although I am into my 70’s so old enough to remember when saying Merry Christmas offended nobody, and people put Christ in Christmas.
Really? Just so you know, it was emperor Constantine of Rome, the first Christian Emperor, who put Christ in the winter solstice/saturnalia/yuletide celebrations by decreeing that the birth of Christ would be celebrated on December 25th with the Mass of Christ a.k.a. Christ’s Mass. The observance of the various celebrations surrounding the winter solstice (the return of the light) predates Christianity by thousands of years, going back to a time when early civilizations worshiped the sun or sun gods.
Have you ever wondered what lots of drinking, feasts, parties, fancy lights, decorated tress, mistletoe, Santa Claus and other stuff has to do with Jesus being born? Twelve days of celebration, starting on the winter solstice and ending on New Years Day. Is a much better explanation of the mood and festivities to me but, believe what you want!
The Christian leaders did that to push out the pagan celebrations, the competition. Of course if one is to have a religion, one based on nature is probably more sustainable and realistic. Reverence for the natural world and understanding our relationships within it is probably far more important than anything else we have done.
I have long believed that the casting out of Eden story was about humans losing their relationship and reverence to the natural world and posing as little gods, ruling over nature in their own minds. Thus the need for big gods.
How Russia Weaponized Social Media With ‘Social Bots’
“They can create accounts that look like you and talk like you, which makes you more likely to believe it. The other thing is it can replicate a message so many times, the more times you see it the more likely you are to believe it. So it can actually create false worlds in the social media space.”
Statement on Visit to the USA, by Professor Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights
Washington, December 15, 2017
I. Introduction
1. I have spent the past two weeks visiting the United States, at the invitation of the federal government, to look at whether the persistence of extreme poverty in America undermines the enjoyment of human rights by its citizens. In my travels through California, Alabama, Georgia, Puerto Rico, West Virginia, and Washington DC I have spoken with dozens of experts and civil society groups, met with senior state and federal government officials and talked with many people who are homeless or living in deep poverty. I am grateful to the Trump Administration for facilitating my visit and for its continuing cooperation with the UN Human Rights Council’s accountability mechanisms that apply to all states.
2. My visit coincides with a dramatic change of direction in US policies relating to inequality and extreme poverty. The proposed tax reform package stakes out America’s bid to become the most unequal society in the world, and will greatly increase the already high levels of wealth and income inequality between the richest 1% and the poorest 50% of Americans. The dramatic cuts in welfare, foreshadowed by the President and Speaker Ryan, and already beginning to be implemented by the administration, will essentially shred crucial dimensions of a safety net that is already full of holes. It is against this background that my report is presented.
.
Bill — You claim the United States of America is the greatest country the world has ever known. Sorry Bill:
The US has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 45 million living in poverty and your president is an idiot (determined to withdraw from the Paris climate accord). Norway’s incarceration rate is just 75 per 100,000 people, compared to 707 people for every 100,000 people in the US. Racism in the US has been widespread since the colonial era. Legally or socially sanctioned privileges and rights were given to white Americans but denied to Native Americans, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanic and Latino Americans. An overwhelming 87% of black Americans say black people face a lot of discrimination in the United States.
But Greece is regarded as the cradle of western civilization and being the birthplace of modern democracy, Western philosophy, the Olympic Games, Western Literature, Political Science and drama, including both tragedy and comedy. Greece has a long and rich history during which its culture has proven to be influential in Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East.
Meanwhile ancient Rome created what we now call “Western society” including our laws, our culture and religion. And there’s the UK, the dominant industrial and maritime power of the 19th century, the United Kingdom is often credited with being the nation that “created the modern world”, by playing a leading role in developing Western ideas of property, capitalism, and parliamentary democracy as well as making significant contributions to literature, the arts, and science and technology. At its zenith, the British Empire stretched over one-quarter of the Earth’s surface and encompassed a third of its population.
And China, the once and future superpower. China was one of the earliest centers of human civilization. It has one of the world’s longest periods of mostly uninterrupted civilization and one of the world’s longest continuously used written language systems. It is the likely successor to the US as the most powerful country in the world.
USA is a shit hole dude.
Merry Christmas to you too. Today is a good day to dress your child in an I [heart] Jesus T shirt.
Yeh, start brainwashing them early.
Hell, I’m just glad they’re not from Bama! Go Texas!
Merry Christmas to you , Peggy
It’s unfortunate that most of the members of this forum who mention religion do so without ever stopping to think about the positive aspects thereof, and the damage they are doing to what’s left of civil discourse in our society.
There’s a lot to be said for the golden rule, and for brotherly love for all of mankind, and all that sort of thing, even though such teachings are all too often honored only in the breach.
There’s a lot to be said for the golden rule, and for brotherly love for all of mankind, and all that sort of thing, even though such teachings are all too often honored only in the breach.
And there is even more to be said for all the brotherly hate spread in the name of religion. All that violence in the Middle East and the terrorism around the world is because of religion. We have elected the worst president in the history of the USA because very stupid religious nuts believed he would bring religion back into the government.
9/11 happened because religious nuts hated everyone other than members of their own religious schism.
Goodness can come from the heart but true evil requires religion.
Hi Ron,
Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.
Humans are imperfect, as are their beliefs.
Dennis, “Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.”
Perhaps you’d be kind enough to explain the good that comes from child and female abuse, that done under the guise of religion, and toss in the good that comes from animal and spousal abuse (that would be belief in human and male superiority). I could go on but this would be a good place to start my education.
Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.
Humans are imperfect, as are their beliefs.
Really Dennis, is that the best you could do? You could say that about virtually everything. Democracy, capitalism, war, peace, New York City, etc. etc.
If you wish to make an argument you need to be more specific.
Hi Ron,
Yes, a different opinion than yours.
Lots of bad things have resulted from nation states, capitalism, etc.
In fact one could claim that both good and bad things have resulted from scientific knowledge.
I don’t see many people here railing against science or philosophy. I was trying to keep it short.
There is no way I will convince those who hold anti-religious beliefs to change their view.
I am agnostic on the matter.
Dennis, people don’t rail against science or philosophy because these are two disciplines that are in search of the truth. Religion is not a discipline it is a dogma and it is not in any search of the truth, religion claims to have already found the truth.
Also, people don’t fly planes into buildings because of their opinions on science or philosophy. People don’t start wars because of science or philosophy. Historically most wars were “Holy Wars”. Some still are.
The inquisition was not to support science or philosophy, the Inquisition was started and supported by the church to suppress science and philosophy.
You are correct, everyone has an opinion, and perhaps a different opinion on religion. The question is, how did they acquire those opinions, those beliefs?
Religious instruction manipulates the vulnerable psyches of young children before they are able to think for themselves, endeavoring to prevent them from ever acquiring this ability. They never attain an intellectual resistance sufficient to counter the influence of dogmatic precepts, to grow up as free individuals.
Bertrand Russell:
Human Society in Ethics and Politics.
But you are correct, we disbelievers will never convince the dogmatic poisoned little minds, but I just love telling it like it is. It is one of the little joys I get out of life. I am convincing no one but I damn well love the ride.
Most atheists do waste their lives battling against the unconquerable monster of religion–a monster impervious to the spears of reason, impenetrable by the bullets of logic, and insensible to even the thrust of common sense.
C. W. Dalton:
The Right Brain and Religion.
Hi Ron,
World War 2.
Philosophy not religion.
I said: Historically most wars were “Holy Wars”. Some still are.
That being said, World War 2 was definitely not because of philosophy. It was a despot, Hitler, who stirred the people into a frenzy because of the Treaty of Versailles. It left them bankrupt and in shame. It was mostly about revenge.
But there was a religious aspect to it also. The Jews were persecuted because of religion That led to the holocaust.
Make no mistake, the holocaust had its genisus in religion.
“I just love telling it like it is. It is one of the little joys I get out of life”
God bless their faithful little souls. When they knot on my front door to convert me and I’m on my game.
It’s unfortunate that most of the members of this forum who mention religion do so without ever stopping to think about the positive aspects thereof, and the damage they are doing to what’s left of civil discourse in our society.
Surely you jest! That statement is both an insult to our intelligence and our characters. One does not engage in civil discourse with trolls! I’ve never figured out Peggy’s true stance but I’m 110% convinced that Bill is a troll of the worst ilk possible.
This has absolutely nothing to do with sincere religious beliefs or respecting those beliefs! He’s just here to be an asshole and/or to do his handlers’ bidding.
Hi Fred, hi Ron
I hate to say it in so many words, but both you guys would benefit ENORMOUSLY if you were to read a few non scientifically oriented books, starting with HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE, and a little history as well.
Peggy may be a troll, probably is. But there are fifty million people in this country who take their Christianity seriously, and who are eligible to vote, and some millions more who take other religions seriously, and THEIR numbers are growing.
Your remarks are a bigger slap in the face to them than mine are to yours, since they are the millions, and you are the few.
Sure religion is used to advance evil. So’s every other sort of social glue I ever heard of.
A butcher knife, or a hammer, is just a tool.. until you decide to use it as a weapon. Naked apes are a violent species, and a supremely flexible species, behaviorally. We use whatever tools are at hand to accomplish whatever we wish to accomplish at the moment.
You’re not half as smart as you think you are, in some respects.
If you want to save what’s left of the environment, you REALLY need to be thinking about building some bridges and alliances with people who are your natural allies, if you ever come to your senses sufficiently to understand that people vote their culture, and when you insult that culture, unnecessarily, you make enemies of potential allies.
I have tried hard to get across some of the simplest possible ideas involving successful political campaigning here. I ‘m about ready to give it up, because……..
I find that people hooked intellectually on the science of religion are incapable of demonstrating respect and cooperation with people who aren’t.
I’m NOT talking about the reality and truth of the physical sciences. I’m talking about getting along with other men and women, who live in the same physical and economic spaces, but different intellectual worlds.
You’re doing the real Trumpster’s work for them. I can’t believe you two are so stupid that you can’t grasp this obvious truth.
Sure preachers all thru the south defended slavery here in the USA. But preachers all thru the north despised and condemned it.
If you’re so boneheaded and proud of being part of an intellectual elite that you are incapable of recognizing that there is both good and bad involved in religion, well…….. You’re not as smart as you think you are.
Maybe your problem is that people like you are too fond of preening your intellectual feathers for the benefit of the praise and envy and sense of membership that comes with your being insiders in the cult of science.
In the meantime, if you happen to be traveling out in the boonies, and your car breaks down, don’t forget that the odds of somebody stopping to help you will be substantially enhanced if you are in a community where religion is widely practiced, lol, as opposed to one where in people vote to help their fellow men by way of hiring social workers.
Lay preachers stop and help out people with flat tires. I know some social workers. They don’t stop and talk to strangers as a rule. They’ve been taught to be afraid of their fellow man, lol, except if he first comes in for an appointment to get a handout.
REMEMBER……. everything that ‘s printed here is freely available to anybody with an internet connection. You’re driving away potential political converts to the enviromental camp.
I have personally persuaded a number of people who still believe in the Seven Days story, etc, that unless we change our ways, ourselves, the END is truly near, environmentally, and that it won’t take Jesus coming down from the sky for it to happen.
BUT I FOUND IT NECESSARY TO AVOID REFERRING THEM TO THIS SITE, which is a real shame, because there is such a wealth of useful information to be had here, free of charge.
Yes, Bill is probably a troll, but this does not negate the fact that there are REAL PEOPLE, a LOT of real people out there, who believe much the same things as he posted.
Get this thru your head, fellas.
The VAST majority of the people of this country are either scientifically illiterate, or close to being so. Talking science at them, while insulting them in the same breath, is about as useful as speaking in a foreign language and giving displaying the straight finger , when it comes to securing their political cooperation.
EO Wilson, who is one of the foremost scientists of our time, would never say anything like you guys have just said. Think about it.
I hate to say it in so many words, but both you guys would benefit ENORMOUSLY if you were to read a few non scientifically oriented books, starting with HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE, and a little history as well.
What makes you think we haven’t?!
As for the occasional sincere open minded Christian, Muslim or Jew who might be coaxed by you or anyone else to venture to this blog and therefore change their world views about the economy and the environment based on rational science based arguments, I’m afraid I’m far from convinced that is a significant enough impact for any of us to to be all that concerned about.
To be clear, I doubt you will find any of us handing out pamphlets expressing our views outside of any churches, mosques or synagogues.
I am quite content to live and let live and most certainly do not go out of my way looking for ways to antagonize those people or create conflict with them. I have better things to do! When they occasionally show up at my doorstep I treat them with respect and simply decline to engage with them.
That is very different from how I respond to trolls that show up here.
BTW, if some religious asshat were to show up at my doorstep early some Sunday shouting at me to repent and change my ways you can be sure that I’d call the cops on them and have them removed from my premises for trespassing and disturbing the peace!
Ahem……
The thing that makes me think perhaps you haven’t, or that if you did ,the lesson didn’t take, is that you continue to talk the same way, lol.
You won’t win any of the tens of millions of voters over who take offense.
You lose the opportunity to widen their intellectual horizons because having insulted them, UNNECESSARILY, they won’t read a forum such as this one more than once…… chock full of relevant and accurate information though it is.
Something tells me I may have gotten thru to at least a couple of people who are regulars here in this respect. That’s the way political battles are won, in the last analysis, by boots on the ground, one person at a time.
Cheers.
You won’t win any of the tens of millions of voters over who take offense.
As Ron said, we’re not here to change hearts and minds.
We are the converted (from religion to science and then down into the dark depths of the coming apocalypse). The majority of regular posters here (at least on the non-oil side) are at least agnostic if not atheist. We are here to talk to each other, not make political points with an audience that may or may not exist. Peggy and her ilk are here to interrupt our conversation. No more, no less.
So fuck ’em.
-Lloyd
“Peggy and her ilk are here to interrupt our conversation. No more, no less. ”
Yep, and they are highly successful at it comparing the number of responses to technical and scientific questions as compared to “troll” comments. The trolls win by a landslide.
Tells us something, does it not?
Hi Gonefishing,
The comments could simply be ignored.
Exactly my point, they are not ignored. I am speaking about the number of comments that follow the troll comments. They seem to attract more attention than other comment types by far.
Yea, fuck ’em.
No more sick apologist sucking up to superstition.
Get this thru your head, fellas.
No, you get this through your head Mac. I am not trying to win friends and influence people. I am only interested in telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Religion is bullshit from top to bottom. Religion poisons everything.
EO Wilson, who is one of the foremost scientists of our time, would never say anything like you guys have just said. Think about it.
Bullshit. You very obviously know nothing about E.O. Wilson.
Wilson said we ignore cues from science about the damage we are doing because of our “tribal structure”.
“All the ideologies and religions have their own answers for the big questions, but these are usually bound as a dogma to some kind of tribe. Religions in particular feature supernatural elements that other tribes – other faiths – cannot accept … And every tribe, no matter how generous, benign, loving and charitable, nonetheless looks down on all other tribes. What’s dragging us down is religious faith.”
And what really pisses me off is that most scientist will not give one inch to any kind of mysticism or ESP, because they are afraid it is contaminated by religion. Religion poisons everything. E.O. Wilson is one of very few scientists that fully understands this. That’s why he thinks religion should be eliminated.
“Humans everywhere have a strong tendency to wonder about whether they’re being looked over by a god or not. Practically every person ponders whether they’re going to have another life. These are the things that unite humanity.
“This transcendent searching has been hijacked by the tribal religions. So I would say that for the sake of human progress, the best thing we could possibly do would be to diminish, to the point of eliminating, religious faiths. But certainly not eliminating the natural yearnings of our species or the asking of these great questions.”
I ask the great questions Mac. I try to get science to ask the great questions. But some great questions, they think, smack of religion. I think the great questions have no need to give one inch to religion. All religion is bullshit. Again, religion poisons everything.
Mac, I have read many books by Wilson. Obviously, you have not.
Again, religion poisons everything.
It is hard for the still poisoned to grasp reality.
Dennett has explored this throughly. This is a problem that will possibly lead to our extinction.
Many of my friends would have disagreed Ron; they claimed church, if nothing else, is a great place to meet girls. The question is, does going to church to meet girls (or make business contacts) have anything to do with religion? Never gone a church (well a few weddings and funerals) so need guidance here. Thanks in advance. 🙂
Socialization is part of religions motive of operandi. It’s used like candy or an additive drug. It also preys on humans during times of weakness(early education- schools, illness- hospitals, death- eternal life).
Energy hog Google just bought enough renewables to power its operations for the year
The company uses as much electricity as San Francisco.
By Umair Irfan Dec 6, 2017, 2:30pm EST
Recently, Google announced that it has purchased a whopping 3 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity — equal to what all of its offices and data centers around the world use on an annual basis.
The tech giant was able to hit this target of matching 100 percent of its energy use after closing new deals to buy wind and solar power generated in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Iowa, adding to several purchases it has made since 2012.
It’s a major accomplishment that affirms Google is more aggressive about buying renewable energy for its operations than any of its corporate peers. But let’s be clear: This does not mean Google is “powered” by renewables. Instead, the company hit this mark largely by buying renewable energy certificates (RECs), which ensure a certain quantity of wind and solar electricity is allocated to a given use. In other words, Google bought renewable power in quantities that match its consumption, even though that renewable electricity isn’t necessarily powering its operations directly.
So we still have a lot of work to do!
REC’s? That is a way that allowed power companies to get away with their failing to reach commitments for using renewable energy. In other words they got to buy credit for someone else making renewable energy thus allowing them to keep polluting.
It’s a version of a fine system that is supposed to encourage people to use renewable energy but really says its fine to pollute if you pay some extra money. Basically it’s a subsidy to renewable energy providers (private or corporate).
Where did that extra money go? Maybe it bought somebody a car and the gasoline to make it move. There is no control over where the money actually goes after the individual or company receives it.
Eventually the polluting power company is supposed to install enough clean power to meet the state requirements for renewable energy. The certificates lose value as the polluters meet actual renewable energy requirements.
REC’s? That is a way that allowed power companies to get away with their failing to reach commitments for using renewable energy. In other words they got to buy credit for someone else making renewable energy thus allowing them to keep polluting.
True enough! Though it does ignore the financial realities that are creating actual change on the ground. While Google may not yet be operating all its server farms on 100% defacto renewables, they certainly have shown progress in that direction. I have no doubt that they will eventually achieve that result not so much because they care about the environment, though they do at least pay lip service to such goals, but because it makes economic sense.
Yes Fred, the idea is to eventually get the power companies to take up renewable energy, as I stated.
One company took a strange route to help satisfy the requirements, probably a brain-child of their financial department. They put single solar panels on their power poles over a large region. Now many of these panels were not facing due south and were in shaded areas, so I think they get credit for the listed power of the panel versus the actual power provided. There is no way to monitor the actual power directly, they are fed right into the power lines.
This avoided their having to acquire or use land and buildings to cover the initial requirements. I always wondered how they stood up to strong wind storms.
They also created 4 landfill/brownfield solar farms on the ground.
The project was done in three phases starting in 2009 and ending this year. The first phase was installed at $6.45 per watt and the last phase was installed at $2.45 per watt.
All this time to put up 115 MW of PV for a company that has 10,380 MW of generation capacity, at a cost of almost $900 million.
Better to let the private sector do the job.
All this time to put up 115 MW of PV for a company that has 10,380 MW of generation capacity, at a cost of almost $900 million.
Better to let the private sector do the job.
Hard to say, but hopefully Alphabet, that’s Google’s parent company is run by people who are somewhat more intelligent and perhaps even more ethical.
At the very least they are an integral part of that ‘Private Sector’, you mention.
I meant the actual installation of PV, not financial and marketing geniuses who merely play a game with certificates that can make them money.
I meant exactly the same thing. If it were up to me all certificates would be etched into the glass of the solar panels.
My point all along has been that despite the use of financial instruments such as RECs, Google is actually also building out large scale solar farms, wind generation and even battery storage to power their server farms.
Dunno but I’m getting the impression that my written communications skills must be in serious decline, perhaps in parallel with my slipping mental state? Maybe I need to get out on the water more often…
No disrespect intended, but I have noticed some change in tone in your comments lately. Maybe some good outdoor recreation will get you in a better frame of mind. I am headed out now to brave the wind on this cold but sunny day up here to “Get the stink blown off me.”. 🙂
I think Fred is suffering from Vitamin D poisoning…too much sun.
Moving to Michigan is the only known cure…though it may be worse than the disease. 🙂
-Lloyd
Kazakhstan Says Ready to Provide Iran with Concentrated Uranium
For many years a few economists have been predicting the economic collapse of China. They keep building ghost cities that remain empty and likely always will. Massive construction requires millions of construction workers and the building materials required to build these ghost cities supports the employment of millions more. And they are investing their hard earned wages in bonds that finance even more ghost cities.
But now cracks are starting to show in that financial Ponzi scheme.
The gist of this article is that better educated Republican voters are turning their back on the R party, since the coming of Trump, in ever increasing numbers.
There’s now a very real possibility, although still somewhat of a long shot, that the D’s will regain control of both houses of Congress in 2018.
It’s not often mentioned among the more liberal political set, but a substantial number of union blue collar people who are generally reliable D voters voted for Trump last time. It’s not too likely they will vote for him again, because they are going to see that he has done and will do next to nothing about keeping jobs home , or bringing jobs home, while at the same time giving substantial tax breaks to the investor class.
So far, I haven’t seen anything saying what changes if any are in the tax bill that will benefit wage earning families and individuals earning less than a hundred thousand or so.
Unions are pretty good at getting the word out about such things to their members and the public.
Isn’t a “better educated Republican” an Oxymoron ? They all voted Trump
Of course, we know why. They are his base. The “better educated” all voted against him.
The Turkish word for turkey is hindi, because they thought it was an Indian animal. In the Hindi language turkeys are called peru, as in Portuguese. There were Portuguese colonies in India. In Peru, on the other hand, the word is pavo, which is Spanish for peacock.
Meanwhile the Japanese call them shichimenchou, seven faced bird. No idea where that comes from.
Merry Xmas.
LOL! TKS! Great post!
Zaggut -Es.Sider oil pipeline disrupted by explosion
NOC expects a production losses of 70,000 to 100,000 barrels/day.
Blazing a Trail Toward the Energy Grid of the Future
The New York Power Authority (NYPA) has taken a huge step forward in increasing the efficiency of its operations with the opening of its new Integrated Smart Operations Center (iSOC), which harnesses the capabilities of state-of-the-art digitization technologies. The center, located in White Plains, N.Y., was officially opened with a ribbon-cutting ceremony on December 11 (Figure 1), after only five months of construction. The iSOC is an important milestone in New York Governor Cuomo’s ambitious Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) strategy and positions NYPA to become the first end-to-end digital public utility in the U.S.
At the heart of the iSOC is the collection of data from more that 24,000 sensors that monitor all of NYPA’s generation and transmission assets. The data are displayed, in real time, on screens that cover an impressive-looking 81-ft video wall.
Within the iSOC is the Advanced Grid Innovation Lab for Energy (AGILe), which can model the entire utility grid and allow simulations to be run, for example to learn where there are needs to strengthen the grid. This can be particularly useful as New York gains momentum in the use of renewable energy sources
To fission or not to fission. That is the question when tremors shift through the energy industry. What is to live, what is to die? Ah mortality, change is thy name.
New Jersey lawmakers on Wednesday advanced a roughly $300 million bill that would raise utility ratepayers’ costs to rescue the state’s nuclear power industry from what some say is impending financial ruin.
Published on Mar 17, 2017
We spent an amazing day at the Sustainable City, a housing development in Dubai with 3,500 people already living there and it’s still not quite finished.
This truly is a remarkable achievement, a stark lesson to building contractors the world over. It’s not more expensive to build and it’s hugely cheaper and more efficient to live in.
Spread the word if you know any builders!
That is an amazingly beautiful town they have created within a great looking city. A grand effort that is an example to the rest of the world.
Sadly they are living in an extreme climate already, one that will see even greater extremes. They also have most of their infrastructure and population within 9 meters of current sea level. Their future is very dependent upon global warming and it’s effects.
Assuming we eventually create an AI computer system that has a reasonable level of intelligence. What would it become if it ever got into the internet? Much of the information on the internet is incomplete, fragmented, inconsistent, dysfunctional, partial truths and outright lies.
Let’s be clear about the differences between narrow AI which is here today and general AI which is akin to consciousness and self awareness as an emergent property of multiple interacting complex systems. We probably have a very long way to go before we need to fear a highly intelligent, conscious, self aware general AI, taking over the internet and using it for its own purposes. Granted the chances of something like that happening, even within our own remaining lifetimes, is still a non zero chance, so we should at least consider the possibility.
Though narrow AI is already pretty amazing in its own right.
Deep learning AI “autoencodes” Blade Runner, recreates it so faithfully it gets a takedown notice
Artist and researcher Terence Broad is working on his master’s at Goldsmith’s computing department; his dissertation involved training neural networks to “autoencode” movies they’ve been fed.
“Autoencoding” is a process that reduces complex information to a small subset that the neural net believes to be most significant; in Broad’s dissertation, he reduced each frame of Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner to a 200 digit number, then invoked the net to reconstruct the image just using that data.
The result was nothing short of fantastic — the neural net, working naively to identify the significant elements of each frame, without human supervision, was able to capture the most important data so well that its reconstruction of Blade Runner triggered a copyright notice from Warner Brothers when he posted it to Youtube.
Note: As I was composing this comment, my screen froze and then my laptop started emitting sounds that could only be described as sarcastic laughter while my screen displayed very strange multi colored blinking light patterns… 😉
HAL? HAL is that you? HAL?
To be more explicit about my own thoughts, I was not concerned with a takeover of the internet but how an AI entity would be able to differentiate between valid and invalid information on the internet. How would it even begin to judge what is right and wrong or just fictional?
Well, that’s what I was kinda getting at by posting the Blade Runner example.
the neural net, working naively to identify the significant elements of each frame, without human supervision, was able to capture the most important data so well that its reconstruction of Blade Runner triggered a copyright notice from Warner Brothers when he posted it to Youtube
It all depends on the deep learning algorithm and the data it is fed. I don’t have a link handy at the moment but I read an article recently about a deep learning algorithm that in a very short time was able to learn about skin cancers so well that it was able to correctly diagnose a melanoma that even the best dermatologist said wasn’t cancer. When they did the biopsy it turned out to be malignant.
On the other hand there have been some strange developments such as this:
Facebook kills AI that invented its own language because English was slow
Some wonderful things are in development because of advances made in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. At the same time, there is perhaps an uncomfortable fear that machines may rise up and turn against humans. Usually the scenario is brought up in a joking matter, but it was no laughing manner to researchers at Facebook who shut down an AI they invented after it taught itself a new language, Digital Journal reports.
The AI was trained in English but apparently had grown fed up with the various nuances and inconsistencies. Rather than continue down that path, it developed a system of code words to make communication more efficient…
…During one exchange, two bots named Bob and Alice abandoned English grammar rules and started communicating using the made up language. Bob kicked things off by saying, “I can i i everything else,” which prompted Alice to respond, “balls have zero to me to me to me…” The conversation went on in that manner.
The researchers believe the exchange represents more than just a bunch of nonsense, which is what it appears to be on the surface. They note that repeating words and phrases such as “i” and “to me” are indicative of how AI works. In this particular conversation, they believe the bots were discussing how many of each item they should take.
If it were me, I would have put together a team of linguists, cognitive neuroscientists, and computer scientists to study and learn the new language.
BTW since I speak a few languages and have worked as a technical and scientific translator, I’m fascinated by AI translation such as that employed by Google. In the past few years I have noticed a significant improvement in the quality of Google Translate.
AI language translates human ones In a separate case, Google recently improved its Translate service by adding a neural network. The system is now capable of translating much more efficiently, including between language pairs that it hasn’t been explicitly taught. The success rate of the network surprised Google’s team. Its researchers found the AI had silently written its own language that’s tailored specifically to the task of translating sentences.
READ NEXT: Facebook close to building chat bots with true negotiation skills
If AI-invented languages become widespread, they could pose a problem when developing and adopting neural networks. There’s not yet enough evidence to determine whether they present a threat that could enable machines to overrule their operators.
They do make AI development more difficult though as humans cannot understand the overwhelmingly logical nature of the languages. While they appear nonsensical, the results observed by teams such as Google Translate indicate they actually represent the most efficient solution to major problems.
Good or bad? can’t really say…
Wild animals don’t really pay much attention to us, other than in a cursory way. Why should AI?
Again, are we talking narrow or general AI? Conscious or not?
But regardless, back to my interest in translation.
Google Translate AI invents its own language to translate with
For example, if the neural network has been taught to translate between English and Japanese, and English and Korean, it can also translate between Japanese and Korean without first going through English. This capability may enable Google to quickly scale the system to translate between a large number of languages.
“This is a big advance,” says Kyunghyun Cho at New York University. His team and another group at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany have independently published similar studies working towards neural translation systems that can handle multiple language combinations.
New common language Google’s researchers think their system achieves this breakthrough by finding a common ground whereby sentences with the same meaning are represented in similar ways regardless of language – which they say is an example of an “interlingua”. In a sense, that means it has created a new common language, albeit one that’s specific to the task of translation and not readable or usable for humans.
Cho says that this approach, called zero-shot translation, still doesn’t perform as well as the simpler approach of translating via an intermediary language. But the field is progressing rapidly, and Google’s results will attract attention from the research community and industry.
“I have no doubt that we will be able to train a single neural machine-translation system that works on 100 plus languages in the near future,” says Cho.
Bold mine. I’d like to be able to understand and get insights from what is happening under the hood from that part I bolded:
In a sense, that means it has created a new common language,.
I guess AI is too simple minded to ask that question yet.
Of course we can always give them a maze test to see if they are as good as a mouse.
Maybe the military is using DOOM to test it’s AI programs.
Of course we can always give them a maze test to see if they are as good as a mouse.
Haven’t used a mouse since the mid 2000s, use touch pad or touch screen instead. 😉
.
Fingerprints all over the displays. One more crack in civilization. HD seen through oil tracks. Nice. 🙂
Didn’t kids used to get yelled at for putting their sticky little hands on the TV screen?
OK, without looking it up, what was the name of Pinky’s sidekick and what question did he always ask?
OK, without looking it up, what was the name of Pinky’s sidekick and what question did he always ask?
Not sure. By sidekick are you referring to the lady mouse?
I think the question Pinky always asked was: “What would you like to do tonight, Brain?” And Brain would always ask: Are you pondering what I’m pondering, Pinky?”
Pinky got the top billing so The Brain was the actual sidekick.
“Are you pondering what I am pondering?”
Pinky was bored and hung around The Brain ( a total nutcase character) to get some action.
Check out this time-lapse of the lake steam on Lake Superior this morning! Water temperatures are near 35°F. Air temperature was -9°F with a wind chill around -31°F.
If post to Facebook video then: System Logic fail alert… If FALSE then: NO! You can’t i i everything else! Zero Putin checks to you to you to you! Return under under under bridge now… Infinite LOOP LOOP LOOP! Bot bad Bot bad Bot bad . End BOT! Exit Program.
Uh Oh, Fred died his hair blonde. 🙂
Or is it the other way round?
Cute, Bob.
This might help you start to deal with common occurrences that happen over much of the world.
Where is the snow going? Arctic anomalies show reduction over time in May and June (high insolation months).
Arctic snow cover extent anomalies for land north of 60N latitude, 1967 to 2017.
Anomalies are relative to the average for 1981-2010. Solid black and red lines depict 5-yr running means for North America and Eurasia, respectively.
In the general scheme of things, June NH snow cover loss since the 1960’s is about equivalent to the loss of Arctic sea ice area, doubling the albedo effects.
Snowfall has been trending upwards in Connecticut. The average amount over fall-winter-spring, where I live, is about 45 in. Out of the last 10 years, only 3 years have had below that amount of snow. The rest of the years have been in the range of 55 to 80 in, so way past the average.
A scan of Connecticut shows partial snow cover currently.
NOAA average annual snowfall for Connecticut. Looks like it varies quite a bit across the state, which makes sense since it is a mix of coastal and hill/mountain terrain.
To give it perspective Connecticut area is about 48,000 km2 total compared to NH snow coverage which reaches near 50 million km2 but has been generally melting earlier in the spring.
With March as the peak in Arctic snow cover, the April SWE (snow water equivalent) anomaly has been descending as can be seen in the graph below. Apparently Arctic winters are producing less snow.
A map of physics, including the Chasm of Ignorance! Great 8 minute introduction to the different areas of physics…
LT
Currently 21% and rising for oil sourced as the next 4 hour ramp up is getting underway.
As for sourcing of the fuel, I’ve wondered about that the past few days, and – best I could come up with, via Google images of the Wyman plant in Maine – is that the storage capacity should hold out and, presumably, be re supplied by ship.
Sourcing of that fuel might originate from New Jersey area refineries, but pure spec on my part.
Wyman cranks out about 600 Mwh, so things look to be cutting very close.
All the more so as coal, gas, nuke and even hydro seem to be flatlining … indicative, perhaps, that they are maxxed out.
Should the ten day forecast come to pass, the New England residents may consider themselves fortunate to not experience blackouts in the coming days.
28 X more wood burn than PV @ Solar Noon.
Soon start burning books?
POLAR ICE IS DISAPPEARING, SETTING OFF CLIMATE ALARMS
“Decades-old predictions of intense warming have been coming true. The ice-covered poles, both north and south, continue to change at a breathtaking pace, with profound long-term consequences, according to the scientists who study them closely. And the consequences are destined to spill over into other parts of the globe, through changing atmospheric patterns, sea currents and feedback loops of ever intensifying melting.”
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED, AND IT’S MORE EXTREME
• The Royal Society published a compendium of how the science has advanced, warning that it seems likelier that we’ve been underestimating the risks of warming than overestimating them.
• The American Meteorological Society issued its annual study of extreme weather events and said that many of those it studied this year would not have been possible without the influence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said recent melting of the Arctic was not moderating and was more intense than at any time in recorded history.
There is one issue that in my view stands out among all the others because the article makes a point of referencing it twice. That is ocean acidification and its consequences to marine ecosystem, mentioned by both the Royal Society and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Not that any of the other points are minor issues nor should they be minimized in any way. But off all the issues related to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the one that I worry about and is the one most likely to keep me up at night, it is ocean acidification.
Military leaders have known for millennia that the time to prepare for a challenge is before it hits you, says scientist and retired US Navy officer David Titley. He takes us from the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria to the icy shores of Svalbard to show how the military approaches the threat of climate change, in a refreshingly practical, nonpartisan take on climate preparedness. “The ice doesn’t care who’s in the White House. It doesn’t care which party controls your congress. It doesn’t care which party controls your parliament,” Titley says. “It just melts.”
One major disagreement I have with this article. One which I find when people try to apply single variable consequences to multi-variate situations.
There’s also an increasing chance global warming will affect a key North Atlantic current that carries ocean heat from the tropics toward western Europe, according to a 2016 study. It shows the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current weakening by 37 percent by 2100, which could have big effects on European climate and food production.
If the AMOC slows down, thus not as much warm water to the northern European regions and the British Isle, it is often suggested that the northern regions of Europe will experience a temperature drop. However, they do not take into account a large factor. By 2100 northern Europe will be several degrees C warmer than now. It is much more likely that a slowdown of the AMOC will merely moderate the global warming temperature rise they will be getting rather than reversing it.
Plus the ocean water moving north in 2100 will be warmer than at the present.
So they get lucky two different ways, moderated climate change and less sea level rise due to Greenland being nearby.
I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization. Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?
Hi Gonefishing,
The price of fossil fuels will rise especially after a peak is reached for each type. As that occurs people will use less and demand for alternative energy sources(solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear) will increase. As that occurs economies of scale and innovation will reduce the costs of non-fossil fuel energy leading to faster demand growth for this type of energy and relatively lower demand foe fossil fuel.
How quickly this transition occurs is difficult to predict.
My guess is covered at link below.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/climate-change-during-an-energy-transition/
and an earlier energy transition post at link below
http://peakoilbarrel.com/the-energy-transition/
Fish — In the case or Norway, which gets virtually all its electricity from hydro (renewable), the two “Johans” will be coming online in the early 2020s: Johan Sverdrup (2-3 BBbl) and Johan Castberg (0.5 BBbl). This will be followed by exploitation of reserves located in the Arctic (already started). According to my Niece, these developments have been made possible by reducing production costs from an initial level of 80 USD/bbl to about 35 USD/bbl. So, every barrel of oil (and gas) will be extracted.
There is a lot of discussion about this in Norway but it seems the oil and gas industries’ momentum will prevail over arguments about leaving anything in the ground. Exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is also accelerating in spite of high production costs. Perhaps it will be different for coal but not if your Great President can help it. 🙂
Although somewhat dated in it’s cost numbers, this article about an MIT study seems to reflect just what is happening today: a price war between fossil energy and renewable energy. How far will it run is indeterminate at this time, but it currently appears as if fossil fuels will give renewable energy a run for it’s money.
In recent years, proponents of clean energy have taken heart in the falling prices of solar and wind power, hoping they will drive an energy revolution. But a new study co-authored by an MIT professor suggests otherwise: Technology-driven cost reductions in fossil fuels will lead us to continue using all the oil, gas, and coal we can, unless governments pass new taxes on carbon emissions.
While renewable energy has made promising gains in just the last few years — the cost of solar dropped by about two-thirds from 2009 to 2014 — new drilling and extraction techniques have made fossil fuels cheaper and markedly increased the amount of oil and gas we can tap into. In the U.S. alone, oil reserves have expanded 59 percent between 2000 and 2014, and natural gas reserves have expanded 94 percent in the same time.
“You often hear, when fossil fuel prices are going up, that if we just leave the market alone we’ll wean ourselves off fossil fuels,” adds Knittel. “But the message from the data is clear: That’s not going to happen any time soon.”
http://news.mit.edu/2016/carbon-tax-stop-using-fossil-fuels-0224
Yup, and…….
YOU WON’T BELIEVE WHAT SAUDI ARABIA’S OIL PRODUCTION COST IS
“According to data from energy industry consultant Rystad Energy, on average it cost Saudi Arabia less than $9 to produce a barrel of oil last year. That’s the cheapest in the world, though fellow OPEC countries Iran and Iraq can produce for around $10 per barrel as well, which is well below rival nations.”
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/19/you-wont-believe-what-saudi-arabias-oil-production.aspx
Hi Doug,
I can’t remember where, but I have read within the last two or three years that it costs the Saudi’s about twenty bucks a barrel to produce new oil. I presume this is in the ball park, considering inflation and so forth.
It’s a dead certainty that they paid for the infrastructure needed at their old fields a long time ago, so that nine bucks figure is likely what it costs them in actual day to day expenses per barrel.
Hi Doug,
Perhaps North Sea Oil (or Barents Sea) can be produced at a cost of $35/b, but 2.5 Gb of oil doesn’t really get the job done in a World that consumes 30 Gb per year.
If you have spent any time on the oil side of this blog lately or at Rune Likvern’s blog (Fractional Flow), the US LTO output needs about $80/b or perhaps $90/b (when debt is included) to be profitable. This resource is also quite limited (maybe 100 Gb worldwide for a very optimistic estimate) maybe about 3.3 years of current consumption levels.
Technology may tend to drive down costs, but scarcity of easy to extract resources due to geology and physics will tend to drive up costs of fossil fuels over time. Eventually this is a battle that technology will lose unless we rewrite physical laws. 🙂
Less mature technologies such as wind and solar are likely to have more potential for technological innovation in my view.
Chart below shows 11 year centered average real oil prices from 1880 to 2011, costs in the long run determine prices.
Doug,
I was having lunch with my son today and while we were eating he received a call from ‘head office’ confirming his flight back to one of the Oil sands projects he works at…..right after Christmas. Some major construction work is just winding down but layoffs seem temporary even in the construction field.
He is an industrial electrician doing a maint and construction role as foreman. It is a very good job.
To quote son, “It’s almost the new year and they will be ramping up as soon as the holidays are over”.
I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization.
Ah, yes! Such a simple question…
Well, maybe I’m off on a bit of a hyperbolic tangent here, but I had been thinking of ways to better depict how ecosystems function and was exchanging some thoughts with a computer scientist who does network modeling, and asked him if it might be possible to use slime molds to map out network node connections in 3D scafolds and maybe create a 3D virtual reality model of those connections in real time with actual data inputs.
That led me to revisit Kate Raworth’s Donut Economic lectures. This one in particular which she gave recently in Sweden. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRw7yeFmqGY
The connection to this first node in my constellation of data points is the fact that the Circular Economic principles are purported to mimic healthy, fully functional ecosystems to some degree and Kate also embeds the entire economy deep within the earth system boundaries and the ecosystem on which we all depend.
The tie in here is that the entire ecosystem depends primarily on solar energy flows which are converted to basic organic building blocks through photosysnthesis. Lot’s of food for thought there for our energy hungry brains which require more energy than any other organ to fuel electrical impulses among all our billions of neurons. Personally I think this might be a huge waste of effort and may even end up proving to be maladaptive in an evolutionary sense.
Our Ascidian protochordate cousins seem to have solved this problem by jettisoning their spinal chords and brains and becoming sessile filtering organisms after their initial free swimming larval stage.
Now there’s a smart move if ever there was one, they seem to have not a care in the world! Their deep sea ignorance is bliss.
So back to the surface for a breath of air… your question about transitioning away from fossil fuels made me think of the Club of Rome and Donella Meadows leverage points so I went looking and found some of her lectures and was struck by the relevance of what she says about energy, sustainability and the system, with regards to our current predicament. Given that she has been gone for almost 20 years her prescience is truly remarkable and she even makes a reference to US presidents, which made me smile somewhat ironically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMmChiLZZHg
Dana (Donella) Meadows Lecture: Sustainable Systems (Part 1 of 4)
What I think is truly relevant to your question is what she says about paradigm change in her paper titled “Leverage Points, places to intervene in a system’
http://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/
Surely there is no power, no control, no understanding, not even a reason for being, much less acting, in the notion or experience that there is no certainty in any worldview. But, in fact, everyone who has managed to entertain that idea, for a moment or for a lifetime, has found it to be the basis for radical empowerment. If no paradigm is right, you can choose whatever one will help to achieve your purpose. If you have no idea where to get a purpose, you can listen to the universe (or put in the name of your favorite deity here) and do his, her, its will, which is probably a lot better informed than your will.
It is in this space of mastery over paradigms that people throw off addictions, live in constant joy, bring down empires, get locked up or burned at the stake or crucified or shot, and have impacts that last for millennia.
So the point of my ramble is, we could, should we collectively wish to do so, end all use of fossil fuels within less than a decade and transition to 100% renewables. We are not married to any paradigm!
Of course we should not waste our time and energy trying to convince those who still are.
Cheers! 😉
Of course you are right, we choose our paths every day and can choose new ones. As I sit here I am collecting solar energy to heat my home, lowered the thermostat and have not used my car for the last three days. Did travel a bit on Monday but it was ridesharing. The news about ANWR has spurred me to try and reach zero carbon burn earlier than planned.
I am merely observing the current reality which goes against the tide of enthusiasm for the early demise of fossil fuels. I had suspected this might happen but events lately have indicated to me that the fossil fuel industry is quite resilient and is not going to give up until forced.
I think people will start to smarten up but it’s a long process set against a rising tide of humanity and lifestyle.
But yes, thank goodness, there are new paradigms developing. How fast they will catch on is indeterminate, but I doubt if they can be stopped at this point (unless civilization implodes).
Much of the population has a flexible mindset, but a certain relatively large portion is in lockdown. That portion has control over the reigns of business in many cases and deep political ties. The advantages of true economics is running up against the wall of false economics. The old paradigm is globally installed and absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground. Prying it loose will take time and taking time means greater losses.
The old paradigm is globally installed and absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground.
I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization,
In my view it is very simple. The current system is already unsustainable therefore it will either be phased out by unanimous decision and replaced by civilization 2.0 or else it will just crash burn. Then if anyone is left they can start from scratch. Good luck with that.
Just think of that video you posted recently from NASA on aircraft efficiency gains. There are just so many things that are happening. Plus the old guard is getting to the point where they are literally dying out. That makes paradigm change a lot easier.
Case in point when I purchased my condo over a decade ago my snowbird neighbors were still driving their cars down from Canada and New England. Well every year since there are fewer and fewer of them left, may the R.I.P.. Our population has shifted to much younger local Floridians.
Fred said”I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization,”
OK Fred, what happens if all the fossil fuels stopped tomorrow. Is there a valve we turn that puts something else in it’s place and works with all our current systems? No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Come on Fred, it is necessary right now. Maybe not at some future time, but it is in place now globally.
You can talk about a possible future all day long, but I was talking about now and into the near future. We are totally dependent upon fossil fuels. That is the problem we need to fix.
OK Fred, what happens if all the fossil fuels stopped tomorrow. Is there a valve we turn that puts something else in it’s place and works with all our current systems? No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Ok, I did split my statement in two separate comments but to be fair what I said was:
1) we should be able to transition from fossil fuels in a decade if we go all out to do so.
So the point of my ramble is, we could, should we collectively wish to do so, end all use of fossil fuels within less than a decade and transition to 100% renewables. We are not married to any paradigm!
You can disagree with that time frame and say it is way too optimistic. but it is not quite the same as saying:
No you say! Everything pretty much stops and goes belly up because most of our energy and equipment run on it and there would be no way to ever make the transistion.
Those would be your words, not mine. Here are mine:
2)The current system is already unsustainable therefore it will either be phased out by unanimous decision and replaced by civilization 2.0 or else it will just crash burn.
The phasing out refers to what I said or at least meant to say, was that if we do not deliberately phase out the use of fossil fuels in a relatively short time frame, then whether we want it to or not, the system will crash.
So yes, if we do not seriously make and implement plans for this transition and we allow the system to crash by default then we will have no one to blame but our collective selves.
To be clear I see ample signs that a transition is already underway. The Chines have 5 year plans I don’t see why we can’t launch ourselves into a global 10 year plan with the goal of leaving fossil fuels behind.
Is 10 years enough time? I don;t know but I never said it could happen overnight.
Of course Fred, some of the systems to replace fossil fuels are starting and growing. There is much work to be done and much needs to change before we can say we are safe from fossil fuel depletion. You know I am all for the change.
It was you, not me, that said we were not dependent upon FF. We are, that will change.
My concern is that we will become so semi-dependent that the worst case scenarios of GW will play out and a lot of damage will occur since we will be only partially prepared instead of in full transistion.
Let’s hope that there is enough collective sense to force a faster, better transistion away from FF burning for energy. We have enough to deal with otherwise without falling completely into our own traps.
“Is 10 years enough time?” No. The global transistion will take 30 years minimum even with a huge effort. It will take to near the end of the century with normal effort, petty national squabbling and power moves.
The human race will be distracted in many different ways over the next few decades by multiple predicaments and problems they face. Getting billions of people in different cultures and nation states to focus on energy transistion will be one of the biggest achievements of mankind so far.
But I agree, one of the major global efforts should be to leave FF behind. Many disagree, many agree, most are not on board either program.
Would you be more agreeable is I included the implied present tense “currently” in my sentence?
“The old paradigm is globally installed and currently absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization, so it has the high ground”
Yes, I think we are pretty much on the same page…
It was you, not me, that said we were not dependent upon FF. We are, that will change.
Close but no cigar! 😉
What I said was:
I will agree with you that it is globally installed and is currently the defacto operating system. However I most definitely do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization
By stating that it is the currently the defacto operating system, I was implying that we are indeed dependent on fossil fuels at present. So again, I fully agree with you there.
Where I believe I was not clear enough and may have led to possible misinterpretation is this part of my statement.
I do not subscribe to the notion that it is absolutely necessary for the operation of society and civilization
By that, I was simply trying to imply, that at least in my view, it is certainly possible to envision the operation of a society and civilization which doesn’t depend on the use of energy derived from fossil fuels. I’m quite sure if you put your physicist’s hat on, you would probably agree, at least in theory, this much is possible.
One last point and then I’ll leave it be, especially since I think we are not all that far apart on what needs to be done asap! Semantic quibbles, minor misunderstandings and time frames notwithstanding.
The thing about paradigm change is that it can happen in a blink of an eye.
Doesn’t really matter anyway Fred. Unless the mindset of humanity changes dramatically toward respecting and caring for all life on this planet, things will end badly no matter what materials we have or how we generate the energy.
Humanity has set itself up on a porcelain throne.
Humanity has set itself up on a porcelain throne.
Doesn’t mean we can’t switch to a composting one 😉
.
I think that the obsession with energy generation will be put behind us in the near future, and we will start focusing on storing transporting and conserving energy.
The reason is simple: Renewables are trashing the energy business, so there won’t be any lobby pretty soon. No lobby for production, no production.
A lot of problems that seem like energy problems to many people aren’t really. For example, if your house is cold, you might have an energy problem, but you probably have an insulation problem. Even in extreme climates, most houses could be energy neutral or net exporters.
As long as there are people making money selling energy, the mind set will be to generate more. When money runs out, people will stop caring about it so much.
The history of mankind can be seen as a race to build bigger and bigger fires. There were a few pauses along the way to improve harvesting, like water mills and sailing ships, but they were the exception. Today, harvesting marginal energy sources has gotten so good that building bigger fires isn’t profitable any more. Now we are faced with the challenge of dispatching the more or less free energy we harvested. That’s not enough of a hassle to generate electricity from fossil fuels, but enough of a hassle to discourage waste.
The fact that energy is basically becoming free doesn’t mean we will consume more and more, unless we find new applications, like desalination. The reason consumption won’t increase is that other restraints will come into play. For example, electricity is cheaper than a tank of gas, so the market will move there. But batteries lack the energy density of liquid fuel.
So Teslas, for example, have aluminium bodies, to save energy. This isn’t to save money, it’s there to increase range. Aluminum has been kept out of the car industry until now by the high energy density of liquid fuel. Sometimes it makes sense to save energy even if its free at the margin.
Renewables are often trashed as a poor replacement for “real” energy sources, and renewables fans always come back with a stirring “nuh uh!”
Actually renewables are a terrible replacement, but for something nobody really needs much of, since most energy is wasted anyway.
The reason renewables are taking down the energy industry is not that they are a great source of energy. It’s that they are so cheap they suck the profits out of selling fuel. The turbine builders are already dying — look at Westinghouse, Siemens, Mitsubishi, General Electric (and Alstom), EDF etc. They are the canaries in the coal mine.
The rot hasn’t hit the oil markets yet, but it’s just a matter of time, because oil companies need internal combustion engines to survive. ICEs are like cathode ray tubes — a beautiful technology that got destroyed by solid state electronics. A big part of the car industry is motors. When the car industry starts getting hammered, short the oil stocks.
Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?
Of all the questions I have ever been asked on this blog, this is the one that I can easily answer and I have the utmost confidence that my answer is correct.
The answer is: We simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract!
That is definitely not what I want to happen. It is simply what will happen.
Ron’s a little hard headed in his old age, just like me, lol, and not apt to change his mind about human nature. Neither am I , although I’m a little younger. I still buy green bananas, and have changed my mind about a couple of things in recent years.
I agree with him, we will continue to burn fossil fuels so long as it’s feasible to extract them. That’s the way naked apes behave, that’s the way we’re programmed, and nothing will stop us from it, short of a one world government on a religious mission to stop it.
ButLet’s not forget that fossil fuels can be like a beer, or glass of wine, or shot of bourbon. Alcohol is really bad stuff in large quantities, but it’s ok and even good for us in small amounts.
We don’t need to totally eliminate the burning of fossil fuel, unless we decide using ff is a SIN, and get religious about it. We DO need to cut back the amount we use to a very minor fraction of what we use today, unquestionably, for all the usual reasons so often repeated.
It’s politically feasible to do that, given time. We don’t need an all powerful one world government to do that. We have pretty good control already of anything that moves in international commerce other than diamonds, other precious stones, drugs, physically small weapons, etc , all of which fetch extraordinarily high prices and are cheap and easy to mine or manufacture, and not all that hard to conceal in transit.
So…….. the various larger and more powerful countries that have good enough leaders will continue to push the development of renewable energy, and discourage the use of ff AS fuel. As time passes, increasing population , depleting supplies, and cheaper renewable energy technologies will fan the fires of the transition until it’s a raging inferno…….. in some countries at least, such as Germany, France, and Norway.
Maybe even here in the USA, Trump and the Republicans won’t be in power forever. I’m thinking the pendulum is already swinging decisively in favor of the Democrats, who are equally as stupid and craven as the Republicans in some respects, but they’re an order of magnitude better, or at least an order of magnitude less idiotic, than the Republicans on the big picture environmental issue.
How long will it take? Hell, it may not even HAPPEN. We may fight WWIII as the result of hot fights started for any number of reasons, and bomb ourselves back to the stone age.
But in thirty years we can giterdone, mostly, close enough for government work. Depletion and rising prices on the one hand, and improving energy efficiency, changing lifestyles, and cheaper renewable energy on the other, taken together, will make it possible.
The countries that don’t have fossil fuels and want to import them can be strong armed into doing without , for the most part, and the countries that will have them available in sufficient quantity to export them in meaningful quantities will be growing fewer , and hopefully wiser and richer.
Australia for instance has an ungodly amount of coal, but the Australian people are environmentally awake, and not only that, they are economically tied to the rest of the richer western countries to the point they will HAVE to go along with leaving their coal in the ground, so as to avoid sanctions that will cost more than coal can bring in, and in their case, they have a SUPER DUPER sunny climate. They’ll figure out how to run their houses and ESSENTIAL 24 hour infrstructure on stored solar energy, and how to run their industries and ordinary businesses during the day when the sun is out…….. which it is, damned near every day, over most of the country.
Who knows what the Russians might do? I don’t pretend to know, long term, but now that they have freed themselves from the idiocy of the centrally planned commie economic model, I’m thinking they will get to be pretty prosperous and maybe even get rid of their power mad government in favor of one better suited to this century….. given time.
Venezuelan’s are going to throw out the Maduro regime sooner or later, sooner in my opinion, and hopefully they will have learned a few lessons about depending on oil to pay their bills, and organize their new society on the basis of producing most of their own food, and having stuff to export other than oil and so forth.
I believe the people of Canada likewise will mostly do the right things, environmentally and economically as the decades go by.
I strongly reccomend that each and every member of this forum pray daily to the Sky Daddy or Sky Mommy or Rock or Mountain or Tree or Snake or whatever diety or delusion best suits his own fancy for a series of Pearl Harbor Wake Up Events.
It will be cheaper to pay for the damages caused by a few super hurricanes, super droughts, super floods, a few super fires, and super outbreaks of pestiferious insects that eat up a staple crop here and there, than it will to delay changing the way we do things until the time window to make the necessary changes grows too small. AAA
We need sufficient incentives to get our collective asses in gear, and I don’t see any such incentives, other than WAKE UP events, as likely coming to pass.
It may be that they will be extracted al long as it is profitable to do so.
High prices will be oil’s undoing, it will make it profitable, but gradually people will become more efficient and start to substitute other forms of energy, this will drive down the costs of alternatives due to economies of scale and then oil prices will eventually start to fall as demand for oil falls under supply, less and less of the resource will be profitable to extract and the shrinking oil industry will become less efficient driving costs up and making even fewer resources profitable to extract.
Essentially in my opinion it is only feasible to extract oil that is profitable and so a lot of the resource will never be extracted, in my view.
This simply requires a properly functioning market economy, the process could be accelerated by good public policy on energy such as that found in Europe and China.
GoneFishing Wrote:
“I will start this thread with a simple question about the energy sources for future civilization. Do you think we will soon leave fossil fuels in the ground or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract?”
For the most part: Yes. We already extracted the easy oil. All that is left is the expensive Oil in deep water, arctic, and shale. That said we probably won’t extract all of the coal.
That said the bigger challenge is what happens to the environment of the planet after another large scale collapse when the amount of accessible resources (energy, petrochemicals, fertilizers) is no longer able to support the global population. Odds favor another global war as the large nations fight over the remaining resources or because of the pending debt crisis. A nuclear war and Nuclear power plant meltdowns will likely make the most of the earth un-inhabitable.
Gone Fishing Wrote:
“How far will it run is indeterminate at this time, but it currently appears as if fossil fuels will give renewable energy a run for it’s money.”
I don’t think Technology has been the driver, Its the cheap and easy credit that provided the funding. For instance Shale LTO & gas has been funded by cheap credit. If you look at the balance sheets of any LTO/TG company is floating on a sea of debt.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4081588-shale-oil-drillers-cannibalize-debt-bombs-loom-horizon
“Shale oil drillers who generally couldn’t deliver positive net income at $100/bbl oil continue drilling campaigns easily funded by debt and equity issuance. But while presentations by many of these companies show decent shale oil well rates-of-returns, or IRRs, with WTI at $50/bbl and even $40/bbl and below, these presentations typically omit such all-in costs as infrastructure build (gathering lines, water disposal, etc. etc) and, of course, the big one: interest payments on debt.”
Alot of this debt begins to mature starting in 2019 and explodes by 2023. Unless the drillers can refinance the debt before it matures, most of them will go bust.
As far as Non share drillers, most cancelled reserve replacement projects because they need about $120/bbl to be economical. Instead they opted to drill wall street with stock buybacks & purchasing smaller Oil companies as a way to replace their reserves.
There are always new methods being developed to lower costs and increase productivity.
Zipper fracturing and multi-layer fracturing are two of them.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352854015000364
It’s hard to predict what new innovations will occur in both the FF and the renewable regions.
Does not matter. Those companies are drowning in debt & the bill is coming due in 2019.
FWIW: New tech cannot ignore the law of physics. The amount of LTO per cubic meter is limited since it contained in mostly low permeable rock.
Silly Q: Primary Energy Source on Planet earth shall be Almighty FUSION – Safely from 1 AU “Astronomical Unit” away as we depreciate remaining stored “HHC” Holy Hydro Carbon aka. Stored Solar. However never underestimate Ape’s resourcefulness to consume the Holy HHC reserve.
Latest PV News:
https://us13.campaign-archive.com/?e=d489a4ff7a&u=2790e780a1533f4bc05c8679a&id=c50ee0e043
What will be the Future Crude vs Light Carbon/Gas consumption? Is the current low pressure/room temperature Liquid infrastructure at risk as fuels lighten? Having experience with pipes, tanks and wires, wires appear to be the future in terrestrial energy.
* or will we simply keep using them as much as possible until they become unfeasible to extract? *
Will Water Limit output at some point? How much of this oily water is returned to the surface?
Will the used water make drinkable beer?
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2017/12/16/Oil-or-Water-
This one is concerns the Russian sock puppets and trolls.
Timothy Snyder Speaks, Ep. 1: Russia Defeats America
https://youtu.be/Ej_D0YkDjy8
Timothy Snyder Speaks, ep. 2: America Defeats America
https://youtu.be/nOQoXwIIbW8
Timothy Snyder Speaks, ep. 3: What is Oligarchy?
https://youtu.be/biZVrh821RA
Timothy Snyder Speaks, ep. 4: Sadopopulism
https://youtu.be/oOjJtEkKMX4
Wow that bloke’s good.
I agree. He’s brilliant. Lately I’ve been diving into his books and his lectures that made it to YouTube. He’s also interviewed quite well in the December 9, 2015 episode of War College:
https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-college/id1023774600?mt=2&i=1000358645838
La Nina is starting to fade away without having done much to drop global temperatures; El Nino looking more likely for the end of next year (on top of recent near record temperatures, and possible continuing positive phase of PDO).
I think we need some paradigm change! 😉
We do have a paradigm change. We continue to wrap the planet in a thickening layer of insulation. At the same time we are losing the cooling fins of the planet. Please don’t ask for more change Fred. I don’t want gators in my lake. 🙂
BTW, why does Florida use so much electricity?
Here’s a little paradigm change in action for you…
https://www.engadget.com/2017/12/21/los-angeles-orders-proterra-electric-buses/
Los Angeles wants to field a completely electric fleet of buses by 2030, and it just took a large step toward making that a reality. The city’s Department of Transportation (which runs the largest municipal transit in the county) has acquired 25 of Proterra’s smaller 35-foot Catalyst buses, all of which should arrive in 2019. That may not sound like much, but it’s a significant chunk of the DOT’s 359-bus fleet. The deal promises real savings, too — it should eliminate 7.8 million lbs. of greenhouse gas emissions per year and save $11.2 million in energy and maintenance over 12 years.
BTW, dunno what people have against gators, they’re actually solar powered and very energy efficient. No, really.
http://curiosity101.com/the-worlds-most-perfectly-adapted-creatures-crocodiles-alligators-and-caiman/
Crocodilian skin is composed of scales made from keratin, which is the same protein as hooves and horns, making it extremely tough. These bumpy scales also act like solar panels, which absorb heat from the sun. This heat is slowly radiated back into the crocodilian’s body after the sun has gone, which allows them to maintain a higher metabolic rate and remain active far after other reptiles have fallen back into an ectothermic stupor.
And did you know they even sing love songs to their mates? You should go out into the Everglades some moonlit summer night…
BTW, why does Florida use so much electricity?
Stupid buildings that need too much AC.
Ireland appears to be behind on it’s renewable energy initiative. The farmers are getting quite grumpy about it.
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/e600-millionyear-fine-if-ireland-misses-2020-renewable-energy-targets/
From the same link posted by GF. What kind of place is it that issues a country wide warning such as this?!
A status orange fog warning has been issued for the entire country by Met Eireann and it is set to remain in place until midnight tonight.
Maybe we could be repurpose it on twitter as a social media alert about McDonald Trump’s rapidly declining mental state…
Warning! Nationwide Orange Fog Alert! 90% Twitter Storm Chance after 10:00 PM tonight…
Aye, you are full of the blarney today. Should be a Red Fog Alert for him.
“The issue of RED level severe DT warnings implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties;”
http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp
Well at least Northern Ireland and Scotland were smart enough not to go along with Nigel Farage and Brexit…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVy7faNKEtM
Hi Fred,
You seem to have a pretty good feel for politics, and so, living in Florida, you ought to have some ideas as to how long it will take for the state and various local governments there to get around to supporting solar power.
What’s your opinion ?
Things are changing, all over, and although the pace of change may appear to be glacial, or as old mountain folks say, like molasses in January, to younger people, it seems pretty fast to me, and appears to be getting faster every year.
My generation is the last one that really takes the old Sunday School and Leave it to Beaver social model seriously, and we’re disappearing fast. Younger people who may believe in Jesus, but who also believe in astronomy and deep time and sexual equality and all sorts of heresies ( sarc light ON ) are taking our places at an accelerating pace. The girls at most churches these days that have bodies worth flaunting show up in clothes that make it easy for the boys to appreciate them, lol.
I can’t say that I know of even one American man anymore who seriously advocates women being denied the vote, although a few joke about women’s suffrage being the turning point that marked the eventual ruin of the country.
Cigarettes are out , pot’s in. Free love came in, the birth control pill came in, and neither will go away again, at least not within the easily foreseeable future.
None of the younger people I know get more than a minor fraction of their news from what old folks s think of as the MSM….. network television, a daily paper, one of three or four news magazines, the way it was back when I was young.
They get their news and information from the net, and on the net, there are dozens, hundreds, of credible sources that are frequently extremely critical of the establishment, and of what we old farts think of as the msm.
Rhetorical question, how many people past sixty or so think of publications such as The Rolling Stone as part of the msm establishment, as opposed to the alternative establishment?
I can remember believing that I would never live to see the dayI would trust the STONE to a greater extent than the NYT, lol, but that day passed ten years ago , maybe longer. Now I feel compelled to read both , to the extent time allows.
( I just read yesterday that the STONE is being bought up by some sort of conglomerate, so maybe super reporters such as Matt Tabbi will have to find new places to work.)
You seem to have a pretty good feel for politics, and so, living in Florida, you ought to have some ideas as to how long it will take for the state and various local governments there to get around to supporting solar power.
What’s your opinion ?
Ok here’s my two cents worth.
First, I’m obviously in favor of any progress in providing clean renewable energy over fossil fuels.
The state and local governments are already on board with promoting utility scale solar. In my view this is not what I think actually benefits most Floridians. I would like to see the government help the implementation of distributed rooftop solar for homes and businesses and community smart grids. They do not seem to see this as something in their immediate best interest. So there needs to be educated self interested citizens groups acting on a more grassroots community organizational level. That is happening but slowly and the power (no pun intended) is still on the big player’s side.
This blog post is representative of what I think is a counter productive mindset that incentivizes the monopolistic power of the utilities at the detriment of a more decentralized and democratic energy distribution for the people.
http://saintpetersblog.com/eric-draper-florida-making-smart-progress-solar/
Note: I would probably vote for a younger incarnation of an independent Bernie/Bernadette Sanders if one were to emerge onto the political scene. I obviously do not identify politically with most of the men my age in the Sunshine State 😉
Cheers!
Note I still think Mr. Jack Rickard of EVTV who is by his own admission a climate change denialist and Trump support has Solar right with his selfish solar concept. He has just posted his latest EVTV video and he has some really cool gadgets to show
He is into more power for the people and I have to agree!
Re: EVTV.ME – Jack has some neat stuff – especially cracking the Pak bus. but note a couple of things:
1. Batteries > 48V Nonomial not allowed in US for residential per NEC Code, NFPA, Utilities, Insurance cartel. – Wonder why – think about it.
2. Traction type Li Oxidie Battery not really suitable for stationary use. Jack had one hell of a fire in his shop. LFP/Fife/LifePo4 are superior in every way but one.
If you do it, put it in a detached doghouse. Tesla market share may not be 1% of EV in 5 years???
3. The Solution is Battery specific – It should work with multiple Li Battery and it should provide Power if you remove the Battery or EV.
4. While secondary battery use is cool, Better and safer just to use an EV with DCFC plug. Let’s hope Jack open’s his eyes on the Potential. does not get that yet. Tesla paks are 10K+ that’s still > $100kWh. , you can buy used EV’s for less. Granted only Tesla’s are high capacity. ~90kWh.
1. Batteries > 48V Nonomial not allowed in US for residential per NEC Code, NFPA, Utilities, Insurance cartel. – Wonder why – think about it.
I just looked up the Tesla Power Wall nominal voltage and it is 50 volts DC… They are designed to be daisy chained.
Think of a full Tesla 75 KWh battery pack as a bunch of power walls connected in series then the resulting modules connected in parallel 😉
But putting a battery pack out back in the tool shed would work for me. A large solar array can easily put out 600V DC and a fully charged Tesla car battery puts out just under 400V DC. While improperly handled Li ion batteries might be a fire hazard the high DC voltage should not be an issue.
Just check for current with a volt meter before doing any work on the system…
“Just check for current with a volt meter before doing any work on the system…”
Check for current with a volt meter? Then check voltage with an ammeter. 🙂
Check for current with a volt meter? Then check voltage with an ammeter. ?
Well, either way, but resistance would be futile, if not downright shocking…??
Weld now, I’m quite positive there’s some potential there, but I’m currently neutral, trending toward negative on the issue.
The DC Powerwall is discontinued. It was a 400 V Battery crippled with a 400>50V DC-DC converter. We installed several – they were available only to Tesla owners in most regions. Forget Tesla as a Residential Storage supplier. Goldman sacks hype. Power wall sales mean not selling EV’s ! Tesla must focus on mass production of Model 3’s or else. The only UL9540 approved Battery solutions so far are LFP type which excludes TSLA. Powerwall II AC is not available to Solar Installers. Possible only to Solar City which is in freefall and likely be rebranded as Tesla. SolarEdge StorEdge uses LG RESU now. Tesla 129 MWh Aussie Pak deploys Samsung SDI cells. Tesla at this point not in the game and the Powerwall nightmare continues to fool the energy illiterate. Model 3, Model Y production means Yugh storage for RE but we must have millions.
One our Customer systems – 6kW of PV, 2 DC Powerwalls with a Model S – 70 miles/day . Needs 6 kW more to zero out.
Note 35% of Self consumption trips thru the Battery. This could be much less if they deployed demand management on EV Charging.
Yeah, somebody didn’t do the math on that one.
All the roof they had – 6kW. Need Carport. Would have come close to annual Net zero if not for the EV. Model 3 on order. System Net Metered ie. behind a single utility meter. Other wise you would not have the term “self consumption”. Make no sense to most people why you would do this, they botched Energy De-reg in the US. Normally NO PV production meter in Net Metering, but a StoreEdge system does all this internally. Before US Utility PV, Most PV Production was behind the meter – Invisible to the TPTB.
Something is off there. Does the customer have a mig welding shop set up in his garage?
Unless this video is hype or maybe paid false advertising? 5kW array, 1 Tesla Power Wall II and a 75kW Tesla he charges off the system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWLzlrGGuxQ
Tesla Powerwall 2 | Fully Charged
IIRC Internal Charger in the Model S is ~11Kw, but most (40A Breaker Size) EV chargers in the US is limited to 32A=7Kw. EV’s can limit charge rate, it’s part of the Handshaking for the AC Charge Port. The Lowest you can limit a Model S (P90D)is 5A. Input voltage is 1 PH 85-277V in NA. You can dial charging down under 500W. So there are Ice Chest size chargers for EV’s. LIMIT Charging from eChem from eChem. Gets expensive. Example: PV Power cost .10, PV Power thru Li Battery ~.40 cents, PV Power thru 2 Li Battery trips ~.70 cents. Just add .30 cents/kWh for each Battery trip.
Powerwall II’s on Order for a Client (He’s 1st in Line – Roadster founder) . So mid 2018 Delivery ?? No UL Listing so we will put them on a Firewall underground post Inspection. Li Metal Oxide Batteries make me nervous south of 38 degrees latitude. They are Tesla Fanatics and can’t talk him into a Sonnen System.
It’s great that there are some outspoken anti climate science people out there , such as Jack Rickard, who are preaching and living the renewable energy sermon.
They are the only people who can easily and readily establish communication with the people who believe forced climate change is all about hot air , pun intended, and getting grant money, and controlling their lives…….. and yet get and hold their attention when it comes to renewable energy and electric cars, etc.
I have been able to gradually bring maybe three or four climate skeptic acquaintances around myself to the point they now believe in renewable electricity and maybe even putting up a decent sized pv system of their own, and buying an electric car, sometime within the next few years. These are old guys, and they really like the idea of spending ten or twenty grand and getting it all back, and then some, by saving on the purchase of electricity and gasoline.
They BELIEVE in inflation, since they all fondly remember when SUPER was thirty five cents, and their electric bill was ten bucks instead of a hundred. The fact that they don’t believe in forced warming DOES NOT MEAN they don’t believe in locking in their expenses.
We often make the mistake of thinking, and OH SO MUCH WORSE, saying people who are climate skeptics are stupid, ignorant, deluded, pick your own insults.
People of all persausions and camps are like computers, which generate results according to the quality of the data you feed into them.
It’s NOT THEIR FAULT, as a rule, that they’re more or less technically ( scientifically ) illiterate.
They do precisely the same thing all the young women I know do, which is accept the word of the people they look up to as being true. The vast majority of young women I have met believe in forced climate change, but not because they know shit from apple butter about physics, chemistry, biology, or math. Hardly any of them, excepting the very small minority studying for STEM careers in STEM take even ONE real course in the physical sciences, and the ones who aren’t getting four year degrees don’t often take even a SURVEY course in the sciences.
It’s just a happy accident that since the D’s are right on issues important to them personally, such as the socalled right to choose, control of their own bodies, civil rights, personal freedoms, etc, that they are D’s ……. and the D’s are by accident again the party that’s right about climate science.
Bottom line, these young women believe in forced climate change, to the extent the issue crosses their mind…….. because they believe what prominent D’s tell them to believe.
It’s interesting to note that a significant percentage of R’s defy the position of their cultural in group, the R party, on climate.
It’s not unusual at all to run into a hard core conservative who has near zero use for the overall D social agenda who nevertheless believes in forced climate change….. such hard core R types are almost invariably technically well educated.
Quite a few of them tell pollsters they believe in forced global warming, and a lot more believe in it, but seldom or never say anything about this belief publicly.
I know some of this sort, just as I know some hard core D’s who own guns and are perfectly ready to shoot anybody who rapes their wife or daughter or breaks into their house……….. but these D’s seldom say much, if anything at all, in public, contrary to the overall D gun control agenda.
Now when it comes to FAULT, and BLAME, it may be a little over the heads of people who are so stupid they think they are smart ……. BUT
Anytime you label people who are your potential friends and allies as stupid and ignorant, you predispose them to voting for your political enemies.
ONE of the dumbest thing liberals do is make fun of social conservatives and working class people, take a second breath, and then wonder why social conservatives don’t vote WITH them, instead of AGAINST them, even when doing so means they are voting against their own best interests.
Sometimes the truth is so simple over educated idiots cannot comprehend it.
Bill Clinton, one of the sharpest politicians ever, got it, when he said it’s the economy stupid. He purely and simply had the touch, he understood people, and what was on their mind at any given time and why.
Well, most people who voted R are going to be sure that it’s to the credit of the R party if the economy does well between now and the next election, whether this is true or not.
And the equally valid flip side of that coin is that they vote their COMMUNITY and CULTURE.
It’s the culture war, stupid.
This remark is aimed at those who need to hear it, assuming they actually DO want the D’s to win elections so as to protect the environment, etc.
Now in case you don’t really care, and just want to have some cheap fun, well, it’s still a more or less free country.
The Trumps and the Koch brothers are celebrating your stupidity but don’t expect them to thank you.
How long will it take to replace stupid buildings in Florida with smart buildings?
If I recall going from R2 to R2 is about a 1000 year cycle…
The good news is most of the glass towers in the greater Miami area are at about R1.5 so maybe a just few more decades. Of course a good hit from a Cat 5 could speed the process up a bit.
ROFL
Current US policy is to replace like for like or worse.
NAOM
Happy New Year everyone, or rather to all fellow pagans present. NB winter solstice (in Northern Hemisphere) was at 8:28 a.m. today (Pacific Time). 🙂
Thanks Doug, things will be looking brighter soon.
So we are over the hump and will be seeing more daylight again from here on. Yay!
Happy New Year to you and yours as well!
Yaaaay! Yule! Next for Saturnalia.
NAOM
Brilliant darkness on the Solstice – U R an Energy Slave – You will Pay up- The question now will be which states citizens pay for this Godzilla, likely will be the most expensive object on Planet Earth. Hello FERC – free the Georgians. The primary reason this expansion is to make room for decades more of spent fuel rods in unhardened pools that are not “suitable for such use”. Fukushima indeed a mess, but a Level 7 event ONLY because of Power Failure. Never happens in a power plant or an Airport. Right? Can one even get their head around unzipping the DNA of all lifeforms via Radionuclide release in the Biosphere. Possibly the worst way for slow death.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/commission-voting-on-georgia-powers-plant-vogtles-future/667115708
Decision conditional on more handouts from the Swamp.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3319698-georgia-regulator-oks-southern-finish-vogtle-nuclear-plant
Note: Illegal to buy and sell power and no Net Metering in much of Southern’s service area.
How fast can we transition to a low-carbon energy system?
Historians of infrastructure like myself observe a typical pattern. A slower innovation phase is followed by a “take-off” phase, during which new technical systems are rapidly built and adopted across an entire region, until the infrastructure stabilizes at “build-out.”
This temporal pattern is surprisingly similar across all kinds of infrastructure. In the United States, the take-off phase of canals, railroads, telegraph, oil pipelines and paved roadways lasted 30-100 years. The take-off phases of radio, telephone, television and the internet each lasted 30-50 years.
The history of infrastructure suggests that “take-off” in renewable electricity production has already begun and will move very quickly now, especially when and where governments support that goal.
https://theconversation.com/how-fast-can-we-transition-to-a-low-carbon-energy-system-51018
Ca’chang! 1000 quid per household please.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/21/hinkley-point-c-dreadful-deal-behind-worlds-most-expensive-power-plant
How much renewables could be produced for that and for that matter some of it could be producing already? How much energy could be saved per house for that much money – a lot more than that white elephant might produce, if it ever gets working?
NAOM
Nuclear energy is obsolete outdated technology and is a throwback to the early days of steam engines.
It has to be one of the least cost effective and most dangerous means to produce steam that has ever been devised. Other than very specific niche applications like submarines, it has got to be one of the most uneconomic means of energy production still used in the 21st century! You can put a solar plant online and producing clean energy in less time than it takes to make preliminary drawings and start the permitting process for a nuclear power plant. The emperors who promote this monumental stupidity are butt naked and should be shipped to the Siberian outback in mid winter wearing nothing but their hubris.
The Case of the 80 MPG car.
Hyundai is producing a hybrid that gets 58 mpg combined mileage. Cost of the car is about $22,000.
Cost of gasoline even at four dollars a gallon would generally be below $1000 per year for most drivers.
Their plug-in hybrid will go 27 miles on a charge and has a lifetime battery guarantee, so it will be easy to get that 80 mpg with no battery concerns and no range limitations. Both under $30K.
Will the hybrid take over the transport system, giving the EV time to evolve and get the charging systems/renewable energy systems developed. At 80 mpg, the EV has little advantage as far as fossil fuel burn is concerned, until the grid gets massively taken over by renewable energy.
Yeah, that kind of transitional technology makes a lot of sense. I think Hydrogen fuel cell technology is starting to look like it might be a viable storage medium for EVs as well. Let’s face it the horses are barely out of the gate and some of them may stumble and throw their jockeys.
Here’s another article:
Accelerating The Global Transition To 100% Renewable Energy
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/28/accelerating-global-transition-100-renewable-energy/
The time is ripe. We need a strong political and social movement to accelerate a global transition to 100% renewable energy. Otherwise, more and more regions around the world will fall victim to wars fought for the last fossil fuel reserves.
20 million climate change and war refugees are reason enough to overcome the remaining obstacles and to complete the global transition to 100% renewable energy by 2030 at the latest.
Given that we are only 2 years from 2020 that’s only 12 years to 2030 so not a huge way off from my own optimistic estimate of a decade.
We need more people the world over to start thinking like this:
Link from article:
https://www.researchgate.net/project/Neocarbon-Energy-2
Short 2 minute video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ww76jNrVHhw&feature=youtu.be
Published on Mar 31, 2015
Neo-Carbon Energy creates a solution for a zero emission energy system that provides renewable energy for everyone.
Showcasing how we might be able to piggy back the transition on much of our already existing global infrastructure. No need to throw all that out with the oil if we don’t have to…
The video makes no bones about openly stating that the fossil fuel Industry as we have known it must die and reinvent itself. The sooner the better!
There’s no reason at all, as far as I can see, that we can’t have cars suitable for commuting and fetching groceries that get a hundred mpg with off the self tech, and have them at a very cheap price, if they aren’t loaded up with luxury features.
VW built a bunch of experimental / demo cars called the XL1 that got well over two hundred mpg. The biggestc single key to this phenonemal fuel economy was reducing the frontal area and overall areo drag load, which was easily accomplished by going to a fore and aft seating lay out rather than the conventional side by side layout.
Getting a hundred mpg in a similarly designed car but without the exotic materials and technology ought to be easily doable.
It looks as if all the established car companies are afraid to actually build such a car, for now, for fear it won’t sell…… but the next time gasoline prices spike……. maybe somebody will.
Let’s hope the safety ninnie nannies don’t make it impossible. Killing a few people in less than optimally safe enclosed cars is a better deal than forcing lots of people to ride two wheelers. Not many people walk away from motorcylce and scooter accidents at highway speeds, especially if cars and trucks are involved.
Forcing people who can sacrifice a larger portion of their income to buy bigger and less fuel efficient cars means they have less to spend on other things…. such as health care, or more efficient appliances…… and also means burning more coal, drilling for more oil, more pollution…..
There’s always a bigger envelope, a bigger picture to be considered.
<I?There’s always a bigger envelope, a bigger picture to be considered.
Yep! And ‘CARS’ as we have known them, are probably going to be a smaller and smaller part of that big picture…
But one thing that most people have not yet grasped is that human transport is going to be electric and ICEs are definitely not going to be around for very long outside of museums and private collections
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z61wL27eDRw
Published on Dec 2, 2017
Robert Llewellyn popped along to ‘Autonomy & The Urban Mobility Summit’ in Paris, October 2017, to see how the electrification of transport could really change the world for the better.
From AI robot on a lost space freighter to supervising creative reuse projects (Junkyard Wars), now doing his green tech programs, Llewellyn has certainly been around. He has some great stuff on renewable energy, backup batteries and EV’s on YouTube.
The EU just gave Uber a punch in the head with their decision that Uber is a taxi service and not a software service. This means making all the drivers employees and all the rest that goes with a taxi/black limo service. Let’s see how they handle this change in business model.
Wonder how the laws about autonomous vehicles will be framed.
Wonder how the laws about autonomous vehicles will be framed.
My hunch is that Uber’s long term business strategy has always been a driverless future. So much for all the rules and regulations around having employees in the taxi/black limo service industry… They don’t plan on having any employees driving and I think they have made the right bet. I think they will be also be expanding into the autonomous drone transportation business as well.
The government bureaucrats currently employed in the taxi limousine regulatory division need to get with the program and start focusing on how they will tax the Ubers of the world to acquire funds for a universal basic income and how they will distribute those funds to all the displaced taxi drivers.
Food for thought, the Uber drivers already have the home addresses of all those government bureaucrats…
A model of the EHang 184 autonomous aerial vehicle is displayed at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai on Feb. 13, 2017.
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Yep, the robots of the world will be running the show if we last that long. Uber of the future will not even have a person in the whole corporate structure (maybe as legal window dressing).
Autonomous flight. Sounds good, though I have imagined much more efficient aircraft in our future. In the future, get on my smartphone, order up a flight. Walk to the nearest designated opening in the forest canopy and get picked up then dropped off where I want to go.
No need for cars or even paved roads.
If we last that long.
As far as the EHang 184 design, I would put the blades up top above the cockpit/people/terrain.
Walk to the nearest designated opening in the forest canopy and get picked up then dropped off where I want to go.
Yep, just give them your three word address and they will pick you up at your tree house in the Amazon rain forest! Free downloadable App available.
https://what3words.com/
What3words (w3w) has a surprisingly simple and efficient way to find an address and get you there. The London startup has divided the world into a grid pattern of 57 trillion 3m x 3m squares and given each one a unique 3-word address.
Maybe they can use the EHang 184 to prune the forest canopy… 😉
If anyone wishes they can meet me at mongoose.inaccurate.jingles which is an artificial reef just north of the Dania Beach fishing pier.
Looks like King Coal is really a knave in the US despite the trumpeting tweets.
U.S. electricity generation economics have completely reversed. Building new coal is more expensive than building new renewable energy across the U.S. and in many parts of the country, keeping existing coal plants open is more expensive than building new wind turbines (and solar, in some places). From 2007 to 2016, 531 coal units representing 55.6 GW of capacity were retired across the U.S., at an increasingly rapid pace.
http://www.theenergycollective.com/energy-innovation-llc/2418633/utilities-closed-nearly-30-coal-plants-2017-economics-6-important
The two coal plants near me are no longer operating. One has been razed. The other is in cold limbo.
Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang trips
LOL!! Ironically the Tesla battery wasn’t even contracted to do that, it wasn’t their job but they did it anyway…
http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-outsmarts-lumbering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/
The Tesla big battery is having a big impact on Australia’s electricity market, far beyond the South Australia grid where it was expected to time shift a small amount of wind energy and provide network services and emergency back-up in case of a major problem.
Last Thursday, one of the biggest coal units in Australia, Loy Yang A 3, tripped without warning at 1.59am, with the sudden loss of 560MW and causing a slump in frequency on the network.
What happened next has stunned electricity industry insiders and given food for thought over the near to medium term future of the grid, such was the rapid response of the Tesla big battery to an event that happened nearly 1,000km away.
Even before the Loy Yang A unit had finished tripping, the 100MW/129MWh had responded, injecting 7.3MW into the network to help arrest a slump in frequency that had fallen below 49.80Hertz.
Data from AEMO (and gathered above by Dylan McConnell from the Climate and Energy College) shows that the Tesla big battery responded four seconds ahead of the generator contracted at that time to provide FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services), the Gladstone coal generator in Queensland.
Tesla Battery, the First Responder to the power grid!
It is currently colder in Minneapolis than in Barrow, Alaska:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/7l85g8/it_is_currently_colder_in_minneapolis_than_in/
Do we have the wrong model of human nature?
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.ca/2017/12/do-we-have-wrong-model-of-human-nature.html?m=1
BREAKTHROUGH OF THE YEAR
“On August 17th, scientists around the world witnessed something never seen before: One hundred and thirty million light-years away, two neutron stars spiraled into each other in a spectacular explosion that was studied by observatories ranging from gamma ray detectors to radio telescopes. The blast confirmed several key astrophysical models, revealed a birthplace of many heavy elements, and tested the general theory of relativity as never before. That first observation of a neutron-star merger, and the scientific bounty it revealed, is Science’s 2017 Breakthrough of the Year. Especially remarkable was the way the event was spotted: by detecting the infinitesimal ripples in space itself, called gravitational waves, that the spiraling neutron stars radiated before they merged.”
http://vis.sciencemag.org/breakthrough2017/finalists/#cosmic-convergence
Meanwhile,
TRUMP AND SCIENTISTS: AN EPIC ESTRANGEMENT
“As President Donald Trump nears the end of his first year in office, the relationship between the maverick Republican and the U.S. research community is deeply dysfunctional. It’s a breakdown of epic proportions, with no obvious fix. One reason for the estrangement is Trump’s action on science-related issues: He has renounced the 2015 Paris climate accord, rolled back many environmental rules, and called for deep budget cuts at key research agencies. In addition, many scientists are alarmed by research-related appointments he has—and has not—made. At press time, there was still no White House science adviser, and Trump has chosen several people to oversee federal research programs who lack serious scientific credentials.”
http://vis.sciencemag.org/breakthrough2017/finalists/#science-policy
The disruption of the EPA mission should be horrifying to the public. Anyone see strong reactions to this?
No, not really, except for maybe in a few isolated pockets of scientifically literate communities. Unfortunately the US population as a whole does not rank very high in scientific literacy so the people do not have much of an understanding as to how horrific the current EPA’s actions under Scott Pruitt and the Trump administration actually are!
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While they try to find new reasons to mine more coal, while the populous places many millions of dollars in the hands of the fictional depiction business that fuel our delusions (Star Wars), we are entering into a methane emergency situation in the Arctic. Without the continuous ice cover, the Arctic Ocean is warming enough to affect methane hydrates down to over 100 meters in depth. Cracks in the undersea permafrost are allowing passageways for trapped methane and some large regions are also tectonically active. Not just increased warming from sunlight on open ocean, but larger flows from warmer Arctic rivers are entering the Arctic Ocean.
The land based permafrost is also showing breaks that allow deeper GHG’s to escape.
So we have both a fast and slower rate of excursion of the strong GW gas methane as well as additional CO2.
There is no sense in pushing Congress or the Whitehouse on these matters at this time, the scientists do not even agree on broader details. So we have fairly poor communicators who are not forming a united front, mostly due to a reliance on inadequate models rather than actual field data and observations. This in the face of a political and popular anti-science movement.
We can only hope for after the fact responses at this point in the US and much of the world. That loses most of any leverage we might have, but we are a very creative and innovative species and fear gives us motivation.
Learning to Die in the Anthropocene-Reflections on the End of Civilization
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0yUX12ZoTA
What we really need is more funding directed into other carbon sequestration techniques. For instance, at this very moment there’s a rig in North Dakota finding a spot for the state’s lignite coal burning mines and plants to pump CO2 straight in to the ground. Besides setting up the coal infrastructure for a cleaner future, later the CO2 could be used for enhanced oil recovery nearby in the Bakken and Bowman County. The latter would likely be first because the state has been planning for a CO2 pipeline and CO2 treatment plant in that region already.
Funding!? Slow down there comrade Marx!!
Clean coal please meet clean bitumen er I mean a high quality, light, low sulphur synthetic crude oil.
https://www.shell.ca/en_ca/about-us/projects-and-sites/quest-carbon-capture-and-storage-project.html
http://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/product-streams
Coal? No thanks, I’m not in one of those historical reenactment societies.
Low quality Brown coal, looks like Coyote Creek Mine is planning to produce 60 million tons of coal, or less, over it’s lifetime until 2040. Thirteen square miles of land to feed one power plant, since the feeder mine is asking a higher price. Wonder how they are going to get the coal to mine. At almost 7000 tons of coal a day that is a lot of coal trucks. Big AC powered dragline to get the coal but don’t see anything about coal delivery to the plant.
Dakota Westmoreland mine is laying off 95 workers since the contract to the power company is gone over to Coyote Creek. No real gain in employment.
Meanwhile, ND is the state with the highest wind capacity and is going gangbusters with wind energy. Set to double the 2016 production by 2018.
Wind power and production map.
http://gis.awea.org/arcgisportal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=eed1ec3b624742f8b18280e6aa73e8ec
Like the shirt says, I lived through Obama now you can live through Trump. Certainly this would apply to scientists as well, right?
Some people lived through the Dark Ages and the Bubonic plague too. Given the choice they might have preferred the Renaissance or the Enlightenment.
Feel sorry for the brainwashed kid wearing that shirt. At his age my kid was taking AP math and science classes. His T-shirts had Feynman diagrams.
Now why don’t you go back under your bridge, like a good little troll.
Hey Bob, it imploded once under the last Republican president. Be prepared for an even bigger one this time.
You guys really keep screwing things up. Very bad track record.
Don’t worry about the scientists, they are just a very small percentage of the population and are not being listened to anyway.
It’s the engineers you have to watch out for. They want to give you lots of clean, non-polluting energy and actually design the stuff that does it. Also it’s the businessmen, they take all that engineering and set up EV production, wind turbine companies, high tech batteries and PV systems. They are tough and smart, so watch out for them, especially when they work with good engineers.
Looks like those kids are waiting for the short bus to pick them up for school.
From Doug’s link:
“I am having a hard time figuring out how to interact with the Trump administration,” admits Shirley Tilghman, a molecular biologist and president emerita of Princeton University. “I had no difficulties with prior Republican administrations because, despite our policy differences, I had faith in their fundamental integrity and commitment to scientific inquiry,” says Tilghman, a Democrat. “I do not have the same confidence in the Trump administration.”
That is a truly extraordinary and chilling statement from a scientist and president of a top tier American University.
It’s hard to feel much sympathy for them since they were warned (repeatedly) that this would happen once a conservative got elected to the White House, unless they stopped acting contrary to the American way of life. Well, what they probably thought wouldn’t happen did happen in November of last year. Anyway, Merry Christmas, everyone.
Bro. Tom,
Yeah, they should have known better than to act “contrary to the American way of life.” I mean, fuck all that science shit! If we want to go to Mars, then by dog we’ll go! And the climate had goddam well better just do right, or we might just kick all the water out of the fukin bathtub!
Merry xmas to you too, and maybe Santa will bring you a pony.
LOL!! The current occupant of the White House is a conservative, in the same vein that a 1 ton wrecking ball, is a building component repurposing tool!
And if you truly believe that someone who has a Doctorate in Microbiology and is also the president emerita of Princeton University, is anti the American way of life, then maybe you should spend a few years in Siberia just to get a better sense of perspective. You sound like a low level Russian troll trying to get a promotion and a raise! I think you are trying too hard!
Not even the long totally dark period of winter was enough to stop forests from growing above the Arctic Circle.
The Arctic Forest of the Middle Eocene
Lush forests, dominated by deciduous conifers, existed well north of
the Arctic Circle during the middle Eocene (∼45 Ma). The Fossil
Forest site, located on Axel Heiberg Island, Canada, has yielded a
particularly rich assemblage of plant macro- and microfossils, as well
as paleosols—all exquisitely preserved. Methods ranging from classical
paleobotany, to stable-isotope geochemistry, have been applied
to materials excavated from the Fossil Forest and have revealed layers
of diverse conifer forests with a rich angiosperm understory that successfully
endured three months of continuous light and three months
of continuous darkness. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions suggest
a warm, ice-free environment, with high growing-season-relative
humidity, and high rates of soil methanogenesis. Methods to evaluate
intraseasonal variability highlight the switchover from stored to
actively fixed carbon during the short annual growing season.
https://people.ucsc.edu/~acr/migrated/BeringResources/Articles%20of%20interest/Canadian%20Basin/Jahren%202007.pdf
Fred often talks about CRISPR gene editing technology. Here’s the best introduction I’ve come across…
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/12/30/13164064/crispr-cas9-gene-editing
Not too shabby 😉
JIM ROGERS: The worst crash in our lifetime is coming – Business Insider
Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
Blodget: I’ve had some pretty big ones in my lifetime.
Rogers: It’s going to be the biggest in my lifetime, and I’m older than you. No, it’s going to be serious stuff.
We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one.
This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.
In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008.
It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.
It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried.
Maybe it will finally pull the rug out from under some of the entrenched oligarchy. No, I’m not holding my breath.
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/06/12/now-just-five-men-own-almost-much-wealth-half-worlds-population
Last year it was 8 men, then down to 6, and now almost 5.
While Americans fixate on Trump, the super-rich are absconding with our wealth, and the plague of inequality continues to grow. An analysis of 2016 data found that the poorest five deciles of the world population own about $410 billion in total wealth. As of 06/08/17, the world’s richest five men owned over $400 billion in wealth. Thus, on average, each man owns nearly as much as 750 million people.
That is seriously fucked up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqE_dS00LdI
Reaching For a Paradigm Shift in Economics
Yeah, that is discriminatory. The world’s richest billionaire women are definitely poorer than the world’s richest men. 🙂
If those men gave all their money to the bottom half, it would be just a little over $100 per person, a one time distribution.
If we evenly split the WGP between everyone it would be about $13,000 per person. If you make more than $13,000 a year, somebody is coming up short elsewhere.
Now if we divided up all the property (including forest and agriculture assets) in the world it would give each person an additional one time value of about $33,400.
Even in an evenly distributed world, we would not be rich. Some would be better off and some would be worse off. Most people in developed countries would run out of money before the year’s end.
There just isn’t enough money in the system to function properly. Or to put it more succinctly, money does not value the world properly.
I could have a fistful of diamonds but if the rains don’t come and there is no food or water anywhere, what good are they? Yet in the human world of commerce and economics I would be rich or at least well off. Dead, but well off.
Obviously the current economic thinking has got something fundamentally wrong. Being rich with diamonds is meaningless if you don’t have friends, and a healthy environment. However leaving 5 super wealthy individuals with all that economic clout in control of the economy doesn’t quite seem to be working either.
So back to the concept of circularity and a new paradigm where we don’t waste natural resources or people. The following video has some surprising numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_lDCP_JYV8
When circular economy models are implemented in a conventional, linear fashion, important environmental, social, and economic opportunities are easy to miss. Conversely, when circular models are implemented and scaled through a system-wide lens, the landscape becomes full of opportunities that, when harvested, become a foundation for high-performing economies, vibrant cities, and high quality of life.
http://www.thinkdif.co
Thanks Fred. Excellent video. She echoes the thinking of the 2002 book Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (by architect William McDonough and chemist Michael Braungart) but with an economics and “thriving” layer as well.
Edit: Just found this quote:
Cradle-to-cradle design (also referred to as Cradle to Cradle, C2C, cradle 2 cradle, or regenerative design) is a biomimetic approach to the design of products and systems that models human industry on nature’s processes viewing materials as nutrients circulating in healthy, safe metabolisms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cradle-to-cradle_design
Humans: the real threat to life on Earth
Demand for land for food is going to double – at least – by 2050, and triple – at least – by the end of this century. This means that pressure to clear many of the world’s remaining tropical rainforests for human use is going to intensify every decade, because this is predominantly the only available land that is left for expanding agriculture at scale. Unless Siberia thaws out before we finish deforestation. By 2050, 1bn hectares of land is likely to be cleared to meet rising food demands from a growing population. This is an area greater than the US. And accompanying this will be three gigatons per year extra CO2 emissions.
More “fortunate” countries, such as the UK, the US and most of Europe, may well look like something approaching militarised countries, with heavily defended border controls designed to prevent millions of people from entering, people who are on the move because their own country is no longer habitable, or has insufficient water or food, or is experiencing conflict over increasingly scarce resources. These people will be “climate migrants”. The term “climate migrants” is one we will increasingly have to get used to. Indeed, anyone who thinks that the emerging global state of affairs does not have great potential for civil and international conflict is deluding themselves. It is no coincidence that almost every scientific conference that I go to about climate change now has a new type of attendee: the military.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jun/30/stephen-emmott-ten-billion
Been saying all these same things in less refined language for years. Fences. Guns. Dead bodies piled like cordwood at national borders. National and state parks put to the plow. Victory gardens. People DRAFTED, military fashion, into any position where they can help produce food. People going back to the land, grubbing in the dirt, to secure their own personal supply of potatoes and beans. Chamber pots instead of toilets, the unspeakable becoming the precious treasure.
In China a century back,people built toilets on the edge of the road, hoping any body traveling on the road would use them, their “deposit “being promptly removed and lovingly sprinkled in nearby fields.
Millions of people leaving places such as New York, traveling to the Southeast, or any place where there is land that can be farmed, small scale, where the weather is at least semi suitable.
Whether we CAN produce enough food to support ten billion or more people, long term, is an open question, but speaking as a professional in the field, I believe it’s technically possible……. if the cards fall ok. There’s no assurance of that, no assurance that there won’t be uncontrollable outbreaks of various pests, super droughts that wipe out entire bread basket regions some years, economic problems that result in catastrophic shortfalls of fertilizer production, hot war, political stupidity on the level currently demonstrated in Venezuela and North Korea, total breakdown of civil government, followed, in LUCKY communities and countries by relatively benevolent martial law…..
There’s PLENTY of reason to believe that the world is headed to hell in a hand basket, and that we will arrive there within this century, and probably within the lifetime of some people who will read this comment within the next day or two.
But ….. given good luck………. There’s also reason to hope that some of us in some places will pull thru ok. There are no guarantees, but it’s altogether possible that ENOUGH of us will perish as the result of overshoot that we quit producing pollutants on the grand scale, quit destroying what’s left of the biosphere on the industrial scale, that there won’t be a wide spread nuclear WWIII, etc.
Mother Nature is full of bullet holes already, and bleeding profusely, but She’s an extraordinarily tough old bitch, and if we die back SOON ENOUGH, she will recover. for the most part. ….. She’ll never be the beauty she was a few centuries back of course. But lots of naked apes are still functional and happy even though they have lost some of their mental and physical abilities……..
Unless the climate goes totally to hell, we Yankees have everything ESSENTIAL to pulling thru, including enough land, water, mineral resources, industry, and military power adequate to repel any enemy eyeballing our fruited plains, timber, coal, and hot young blossoms, lol.
We sure as hell won’t be living the way we do NOW, during and after the crisis, but we do have a fair to good shot at living reasonably dignified lives with electricity, water and sewer, food on the table, etc.
Lots of unexpected but welcome events could come to pass over the next few decades. It’s altogether possible that the birth rate in a number of countries will fall a LOT faster than expected. There may be game changing breakthroughs in agricultural technology that enable us to produce enough food in some countries that are currently food importers.
I actually expect renewable energy to get to be cheap enough that we can use it lavishly on jobs such as desalinization of sea water, or the diversion of rivers hundreds of miles to places where the water can be used for irrigation. Building new houses, and retrofitting older ones to be super energy efficient is a task well within our means, and can be accomplished by diverting resources from such uses as buying a whole new fleet of cars every fifteen years or so, and putting half those resources into better homes and buildings, with half the other half going to build cars and trucks that are REALLY and truly needed, and that will last indefinitely, because they will be BUILT to last, the way my old farm machinery is built to last. The last quarter can be used to build more wind and solar infrastructure, or water treatment plants capable of capturing the nutrients we are currently flushing away, or more mass transit.
It’s hard to see any likely humane solution to the problems facing people in places such as the poorer parts of Africa, where birth rates are still high, and economic development way behind, and the resource cupboard already bare in some cases , and soon to be bare in others.
Maybe more fortunate people will be willing to sacrifice a significant part of their own standard of living to keeping the people in such unfortunate countries alive.Maybe. For a while. Maybe such people will come to understand that their only hope, as individuals, and as societies, is to quit having children.
Maybe some super rich person will donate a hundred bucks, and a computer and solar panel and a light to any young couple or any young woman in such a country that is willing to undergo sterilization.
Priests have been known to reinterpret their holy books. Maybe the priests that dominate some societies will figure out that their own living standard and their own personal safety and security depend on their reinterpreting their particular philosophies in such a way that having more than one kid is a sin, maybe even a sin requiring a good horsewhipping or worse.
Maybe a disease such as the Spanish Flu but even more virulent will break out in such countries and pretty much solve their population problem FOR them. Once the shit is well and truly into the fan, stopping such a plague disease in a country falling apart will probably be impossible.
Just stopping it from getting a good toehold in rich countries may prove to be impossible.
It will take a herculean effort to get the equivalent of 2 Billion people living off fossil fuels by 2030, and that leaves 6 Billion others still in full burn. You can’t stop this train on a dime.
I think we will burn all that can be extracted for the equivalent of less than about $100 (in todays dollars), and maybe much more.
Ron is right on the magnitude of overshoot, and most everyone else here is just trying to be hopeful. Thats how I see it.
Sure, even if some regions go full out renewable they will sell their FF resources to others that still use it. Not many will keep it in the ground if it turns a profit.
Hi Gonefishing,
Substitute forms of energy in the future will be cheaper than fossil fuel. Demand for fossil fuels will decrease, price will decrease and less of it will be profitable to extract.
There may be a little technological progress in extraction (though I would argue that 99% of that has already occurred), but there is little incentive to invest in research and development in an industry that is declining. There has not been a lot of progress on buggy whips in the past 100 years because nobody cares about them.
The same will be true of fossil fuels in about 30 to 40 years.
Land and coal.
About 10 million acres of land is coal land in the US, larger than Rhode Island. This does not include the pollution plume areas around these mines or the roads and railroads to service them, or all the ancillary facilities related to coal. These mines mostly feed the 600 coal power plants across the US, with unknown land area on each one. The ones I know about have been over 200 acres each. Figure another 200 square miles with extra land for ash disposal.
This is generally land that has no access or other use, unlike wind power or some solar. Also the mines are eventually closed and new mines have to be opened up elsewhere, unlike renewable PV and wind that can exist there essentially forever and do not pollute the surrounding countryside or the air and water.
Estimate: Solar thermal energy requires about 16.4% less land than coal, and wind power requires about 96.3% less land than coal, to produce a given amount of electricity over a 60-year period. Solar PV uses about 33% less land (or even less because it can be on buildings).
THE biggest SINGLE problem , in my estimation, with wind and solar power, is that you have to pay YEARS AND YEARS UPFRONT for the relatively small amount of electricity produced per day per dollar invested.
It’s hard to pay for stuff NOW that we won’t be using for another twenty years.
It seems certain that in places with plenty of cheap land and an excellent solar resource, not to mention cheap labor, lol, solar power is now competitive on a straight up dollar and cent basis with little or nothing in the way of subsidy, compared to burning coal, without having to argue the case for solar in terms of environmental consequences.
What I’m wondering about now is this.
About how much longer will it be until new solar capacity is cheap enough to compete, without subsidies, with coal , on a strictly dollars and cents basis, in places with a more TYPICAL solar resource?
Let’s say for instance North Carolina versus southern California.
I don’t know the answer to your question OFM, but I am surprised a system hasn’t developed to allow the average person to pay the solar cost over 30 yrs- in the form of a Solar Bond. Should be able to pay 3-5% I expect. Would be inheritable, and allow purchase of a solar share anyway in the country.
Season’s Greetings, from The Baffler.
He’s a mean one, Mr. Trump. He really is a heel. Scrooge, Grinch, Simon Legree: they’re elements of his brand, what keeps fans coming back. His kind of merry villainy is usually found only in opera, where nefarious baritones like Scarpia from Tosca deliver rousing arias about the joy in screwing others over. We should have seen this coming the moment the GOP picked the Heat Miser as presidential candidate. Only we’d need a capacity for suspending disbelief that we’ve since grimly honed just to make it through another day under the surreally nasty dispensations of the Trump presidency. It’s taken a continual effort of the collective national will simply to imagine this living incarnation of a flaming-haired, stop-animated villain from a 1970s Christmas special actually becoming president. Then to imagine him stepping into a role he’s likely coveted since he bullied whoever had it in his grade school Christmas pageant: the jolly old elf who, with a visible sneer, calls the impending $1.5 trillion tax cut a “Christmas present for America.”
A brown-paper neutron bomb tied up with strings, this gift joins so many others the administration already laid beneath our tree. I bet that box with the big red bow is the shiny new concealed carry law that greeted Sandy Hook family members visiting the Capitol on the day it went before Congress (and a delight to New Yorkers like me who feel the city’s main problem is not enough handguns on the street). This sits right next to December’s presidential recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel, a firm push to swing terrorists that should radicalize the Middle East by Feast of the Epiphany. That big box back there is the cataclysm that Santa fast-tracked by pulling out of the Paris Accords, to please a small number of misinformed workers and really just because, Fuck you. Which brings us to GOP’s trillion-and-a-half-dollar stocking stuffer for themselves and several friends, which should fill us all with holiday cheer until we try to sell our homes, educate our children, fall ill, or 2027, whichever comes first.
LOL. Thanks!
A top 10 coldest Christmas on record is on the way for Northern Minnesota.
Bob The Weatherman needs to read here:-
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us-drought-risk-rising-second-la-nia-winter-kicks
especially Figure 2.
NAOM
NAOM, just ignore Mr. Frisky, He’s a troll and doesn’t grok Jet Stream dynamics.
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242
Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events
BTW, it is summer in the southern hemisphere right now but just last year…. A heatwave in southern and eastern Australia sends people flocking to the beach to beat the heat. Adelaide is having its hottest Christmas Day in decades and has become the hottest capital city in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology says the temperature in the South Australian city reached 41.3C (106.3F) at 3.50pm.Dec 26, 2016
This year’s Christmas forecast is much cooler than last year so Santa will need less sunscreen on his beer belly!
However if last summer wasn’t bad enough This past winter Australia had it hottest winter ever recorded!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-01/australia-winter-2017-was-hot-dry-and-a-record/8862856
The 2017 winter was the hottest since 1910 when national records began, according to Bureau of Meteorology figures released today.
The average maximum daily temperature recorded across all Australian recording locations for June, July and August 2017 was 23.7C.
That is a whopping 1.9C degrees above the baseline 1961 to 1990 average of 21.8C and smashes the previous record of 23.4C set in 2009.
I do understand how jet streams work. Anyone who knows the teleconnections and checks up on them could see this North American deep freeze coming due to the very negative EPO and weak positive NAO. MJO mainly in Phase 7 then helped things along. The result is a jet stream delivering a record cold air mass. Weather weenies usually are interested in any strange weather, including record temperatures, therefore I shared the weather story graphic National Weather Service put on social media. If you have a problem with the image, talk to them. They created it.
Did your mother have any children that lived?
Just makin’ sure the silent watchers have the other side of the story. 😉
My money is on Bob to not survive the famine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourette_syndrome
Bob,
I think you might be on to something. I just looked in my freezer and there’s ice in there!
(You have fun doing that shit, don’t you?) You remind me of a retarded boy I used to see many years ago. He’d go into a phonebooth, drop a dime in, ring a number, say a few words, then hang up and laugh his ass off. And that’s a true story, so help me dog.
It got real dark tonight Bob. Will the sun ever come back?
Stanley Wells said it well “You remind me of a retarded boy “
These were the actual Christmas morning lows and wind chills in North Dakota.
Now that Christmas Day is over, we can see how close to reality the National Weather Service temperature forecasts in the graphic above were. The forecasts were quite good.
Observed high temperatures for December 25, 2017:
Shutdown Starts For Coal-Fired Plant Serving US Southwest
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — The first of two units to be shut down at a coal-fired power plant that has been serving customers throughout the American Southwest for decades is no longer in operation, officials with New Mexico’s largest utility said Tuesday.
Unit 3 at the San Juan Generating Station was turned off just after midnight and another unit at the four-unit plant will be turned off this weekend as Public Service Co. of New Mexico works to meet a federally mandated deadline for the closure.
The partial shutdown is part of an agreement with state and federal regulators and other stakeholders to reduce haze-causing pollution in the Four Corners region, where New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Utah meet.
Years of negotiation went into crafting the agreement because
https://www.chem.info/news/2017/12/shutdown-starts-coal-fired-plant-serving-us-southwest
There is always a back story to these shutdowns. Usually they are old facilities being fed by equally old mines. In addition to the environmental groups pressure and lawsuits, the writing is on the wall for the mines running out in the near future. There have been other coal plant closures in recent times in the Four Corners region and at the Nevada border for similar reasons. NOx limits enforced by the EPA have been a key instrument in the shutdowns and in some cases, dismantling.
Why invest in expensive needed upgrades and maintenance when the plants might only be able to run another decade or so on their own mine sources? I wonder how much subsidies or tax breaks went into those deals.
We like to think we are safe, at home and at work in our daily routines. In reality we are ignoring all the dangerous situations that exist all around us because we don’t see it happening very often (unless you talk to firemen and emergency service people).
We run electrical wires through combustible wood in our homes, they are wrapped in electrical wiring and devices. We have tanks of fuel oil in the basement, or propane tanks next to the house outside feeding the gas inside. We have fireplaces, electric heaters and gas stoves. At work it can even be more potentially hazardous.
Sure we install protective systems, but systems fail, leaks happen and once in while all hell breaks loose.
Horrifying as it is when a home or business burns or explodes, it was nowhere near as horrifying and potentially dangerous as this one example back in 1980 when a maintenance team dropped a socket from a wrench and the unthinkable happened.
https://play.radiopublic.com/radio-diaries-0G2ozW/ep/s1!55a3e9b6e7e6fc5031dac185815a0535b8c1f792
Yep, there was both a PBS documentary and a movie made about that accident. I watched the documentary a couple years ago. The take home message is that so far we have been extremely lucky and that chances are high that our luck will run out sooner or later. Humans are fallible!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiecixAsm8w
Command and Control – Nuclear Missiles in America | Complete PBS Documentary
A high school buddy of mine ended up in a Titan Missile Base after graduating. He got injured by a leaking fuel accident.
Fred — Highlights of my year were:
The study of acoustic signals and the supposed spoken language of the dolphins (T. I. Vyazemsky) and, predictably, the neutron star merger on the edge of the galaxy NGC4993 — easily the most-studied event in the history of astronomy. Credit for discovering the dolphin research paper goes entirely to you. Thanks ever so much,
Doug
Doug,
You are being too kind, sir!
Re: The NGC4993 neutron star merger, we should probably take our hats off to the giants upon whose shoulders the science and technology that led to that collision being detected via gravitational-wave emission by LIGO. My mind is duly blown by that accomplishment!
As for accepting all the credit for discovering the dolphin research paper, I must confess to being forced to acknowledge the fact that what led me to it started with discussion in the thread discussing fourier analysis. Not to mention that a large part of the credit must be shared with my personal scientific research assistant, IRIS.ai 😉
Cheers!
Fred
So where is the methane? NASA images showing methane around the globe.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5270
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87681
Is Washington tacitly operating under a new monetary theory?
What the United States and Japan share in this regard is that each issues its own sovereign currency. That means both could theoretically retire their entire government debt in one day by issuing sufficient currency to buy up all the outstanding bonds. (A smarter way would be to do this very gradually without announcing it. In the alternative, the legislature could pass a law requiring government bondholders to sell their bonds back to government at a pre-determined price—something bondholders would certainly dislike since the price is likely to favor the government.)
What this tells us is that any government that issues its own currency will never run out of money to pay back bondholders.
Modern Monetary Theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory
Merry Christmas to Friends at Peak Oil Barrel! Today and tomorrow are days to rejoice in your beliefs, whatever they may be, then think about the blessings of the day. Merry Christmas and thank you also to the writers of Peak oil Barrel! Ya’ll allow us all to be better informed citizens about American energy.
Merry Christmas to you and yours. I pray for the day to be glorious, for God’s richest blessing’s to give comfort in good time and bad. In our household every Christmas is celebrated as another year of being blessed with good health, prosperity, and the freedoms of living in the United States of America, the greatest country the world has ever known.
You have got to be Russian. No one else believes that crap.
No sir I am born and bred American. Although I am into my 70’s so old enough to remember when saying Merry Christmas offended nobody, and people put Christ in Christmas.
Really? Just so you know, it was emperor Constantine of Rome, the first Christian Emperor, who put Christ in the winter solstice/saturnalia/yuletide celebrations by decreeing that the birth of Christ would be celebrated on December 25th with the Mass of Christ a.k.a. Christ’s Mass. The observance of the various celebrations surrounding the winter solstice (the return of the light) predates Christianity by thousands of years, going back to a time when early civilizations worshiped the sun or sun gods.
Have you ever wondered what lots of drinking, feasts, parties, fancy lights, decorated tress, mistletoe, Santa Claus and other stuff has to do with Jesus being born? Twelve days of celebration, starting on the winter solstice and ending on New Years Day. Is a much better explanation of the mood and festivities to me but, believe what you want!
The Christian leaders did that to push out the pagan celebrations, the competition. Of course if one is to have a religion, one based on nature is probably more sustainable and realistic. Reverence for the natural world and understanding our relationships within it is probably far more important than anything else we have done.
I have long believed that the casting out of Eden story was about humans losing their relationship and reverence to the natural world and posing as little gods, ruling over nature in their own minds. Thus the need for big gods.
How Russia Weaponized Social Media With ‘Social Bots’
“They can create accounts that look like you and talk like you, which makes you more likely to believe it. The other thing is it can replicate a message so many times, the more times you see it the more likely you are to believe it. So it can actually create false worlds in the social media space.”
https://www.npr.org/2017/11/05/562058208/how-russia-weaponized-social-media-with-social-bots
United States of America, the greatest country the world has ever known.
What an complete asshat you are, Bill!
http://ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=22533&LangID=E
Statement on Visit to the USA, by Professor Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights
Washington, December 15, 2017
I. Introduction
1. I have spent the past two weeks visiting the United States, at the invitation of the federal government, to look at whether the persistence of extreme poverty in America undermines the enjoyment of human rights by its citizens. In my travels through California, Alabama, Georgia, Puerto Rico, West Virginia, and Washington DC I have spoken with dozens of experts and civil society groups, met with senior state and federal government officials and talked with many people who are homeless or living in deep poverty. I am grateful to the Trump Administration for facilitating my visit and for its continuing cooperation with the UN Human Rights Council’s accountability mechanisms that apply to all states.
2. My visit coincides with a dramatic change of direction in US policies relating to inequality and extreme poverty. The proposed tax reform package stakes out America’s bid to become the most unequal society in the world, and will greatly increase the already high levels of wealth and income inequality between the richest 1% and the poorest 50% of Americans. The dramatic cuts in welfare, foreshadowed by the President and Speaker Ryan, and already beginning to be implemented by the administration, will essentially shred crucial dimensions of a safety net that is already full of holes. It is against this background that my report is presented.
.
Bill — You claim the United States of America is the greatest country the world has ever known. Sorry Bill:
The US has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 45 million living in poverty and your president is an idiot (determined to withdraw from the Paris climate accord). Norway’s incarceration rate is just 75 per 100,000 people, compared to 707 people for every 100,000 people in the US. Racism in the US has been widespread since the colonial era. Legally or socially sanctioned privileges and rights were given to white Americans but denied to Native Americans, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Hispanic and Latino Americans. An overwhelming 87% of black Americans say black people face a lot of discrimination in the United States.
But Greece is regarded as the cradle of western civilization and being the birthplace of modern democracy, Western philosophy, the Olympic Games, Western Literature, Political Science and drama, including both tragedy and comedy. Greece has a long and rich history during which its culture has proven to be influential in Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East.
Meanwhile ancient Rome created what we now call “Western society” including our laws, our culture and religion. And there’s the UK, the dominant industrial and maritime power of the 19th century, the United Kingdom is often credited with being the nation that “created the modern world”, by playing a leading role in developing Western ideas of property, capitalism, and parliamentary democracy as well as making significant contributions to literature, the arts, and science and technology. At its zenith, the British Empire stretched over one-quarter of the Earth’s surface and encompassed a third of its population.
And China, the once and future superpower. China was one of the earliest centers of human civilization. It has one of the world’s longest periods of mostly uninterrupted civilization and one of the world’s longest continuously used written language systems. It is the likely successor to the US as the most powerful country in the world.
USA is a shit hole dude.
Merry Christmas to you too. Today is a good day to dress your child in an I [heart] Jesus T shirt.
Yeh, start brainwashing them early.
Hell, I’m just glad they’re not from Bama! Go Texas!
Merry Christmas to you , Peggy
It’s unfortunate that most of the members of this forum who mention religion do so without ever stopping to think about the positive aspects thereof, and the damage they are doing to what’s left of civil discourse in our society.
There’s a lot to be said for the golden rule, and for brotherly love for all of mankind, and all that sort of thing, even though such teachings are all too often honored only in the breach.
There’s a lot to be said for the golden rule, and for brotherly love for all of mankind, and all that sort of thing, even though such teachings are all too often honored only in the breach.
And there is even more to be said for all the brotherly hate spread in the name of religion. All that violence in the Middle East and the terrorism around the world is because of religion. We have elected the worst president in the history of the USA because very stupid religious nuts believed he would bring religion back into the government.
9/11 happened because religious nuts hated everyone other than members of their own religious schism.
Goodness can come from the heart but true evil requires religion.
Hi Ron,
Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.
Humans are imperfect, as are their beliefs.
Dennis, “Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.”
Perhaps you’d be kind enough to explain the good that comes from child and female abuse, that done under the guise of religion, and toss in the good that comes from animal and spousal abuse (that would be belief in human and male superiority). I could go on but this would be a good place to start my education.
Both good and bad can come from religious beliefs, just like everything else.
Humans are imperfect, as are their beliefs.
Really Dennis, is that the best you could do? You could say that about virtually everything. Democracy, capitalism, war, peace, New York City, etc. etc.
If you wish to make an argument you need to be more specific.
Hi Ron,
Yes, a different opinion than yours.
Lots of bad things have resulted from nation states, capitalism, etc.
In fact one could claim that both good and bad things have resulted from scientific knowledge.
I don’t see many people here railing against science or philosophy. I was trying to keep it short.
There is no way I will convince those who hold anti-religious beliefs to change their view.
I am agnostic on the matter.
Dennis, people don’t rail against science or philosophy because these are two disciplines that are in search of the truth. Religion is not a discipline it is a dogma and it is not in any search of the truth, religion claims to have already found the truth.
Also, people don’t fly planes into buildings because of their opinions on science or philosophy. People don’t start wars because of science or philosophy. Historically most wars were “Holy Wars”. Some still are.
The inquisition was not to support science or philosophy, the Inquisition was started and supported by the church to suppress science and philosophy.
You are correct, everyone has an opinion, and perhaps a different opinion on religion. The question is, how did they acquire those opinions, those beliefs?
Religious instruction manipulates the vulnerable psyches of young children before they are able to think for themselves, endeavoring to prevent them from ever acquiring this ability. They never attain an intellectual resistance sufficient to counter the influence of dogmatic precepts, to grow up as free individuals.
Bertrand Russell:
Human Society in Ethics and Politics.
But you are correct, we disbelievers will never convince the dogmatic poisoned little minds, but I just love telling it like it is. It is one of the little joys I get out of life. I am convincing no one but I damn well love the ride.
Most atheists do waste their lives battling against the unconquerable monster of religion–a monster impervious to the spears of reason, impenetrable by the bullets of logic, and insensible to even the thrust of common sense.
C. W. Dalton:
The Right Brain and Religion.
Hi Ron,
World War 2.
Philosophy not religion.
I said: Historically most wars were “Holy Wars”. Some still are.
That being said, World War 2 was definitely not because of philosophy. It was a despot, Hitler, who stirred the people into a frenzy because of the Treaty of Versailles. It left them bankrupt and in shame. It was mostly about revenge.
But there was a religious aspect to it also. The Jews were persecuted because of religion That led to the holocaust.
Make no mistake, the holocaust had its genisus in religion.
“I just love telling it like it is. It is one of the little joys I get out of life”
God bless their faithful little souls. When they knot on my front door to convert me and I’m on my game.
It’s unfortunate that most of the members of this forum who mention religion do so without ever stopping to think about the positive aspects thereof, and the damage they are doing to what’s left of civil discourse in our society.
Surely you jest! That statement is both an insult to our intelligence and our characters. One does not engage in civil discourse with trolls! I’ve never figured out Peggy’s true stance but I’m 110% convinced that Bill is a troll of the worst ilk possible.
This has absolutely nothing to do with sincere religious beliefs or respecting those beliefs! He’s just here to be an asshole and/or to do his handlers’ bidding.
Hi Fred, hi Ron
I hate to say it in so many words, but both you guys would benefit ENORMOUSLY if you were to read a few non scientifically oriented books, starting with HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE, and a little history as well.
Peggy may be a troll, probably is. But there are fifty million people in this country who take their Christianity seriously, and who are eligible to vote, and some millions more who take other religions seriously, and THEIR numbers are growing.
Your remarks are a bigger slap in the face to them than mine are to yours, since they are the millions, and you are the few.
Sure religion is used to advance evil. So’s every other sort of social glue I ever heard of.
A butcher knife, or a hammer, is just a tool.. until you decide to use it as a weapon. Naked apes are a violent species, and a supremely flexible species, behaviorally. We use whatever tools are at hand to accomplish whatever we wish to accomplish at the moment.
You’re not half as smart as you think you are, in some respects.
If you want to save what’s left of the environment, you REALLY need to be thinking about building some bridges and alliances with people who are your natural allies, if you ever come to your senses sufficiently to understand that people vote their culture, and when you insult that culture, unnecessarily, you make enemies of potential allies.
I have tried hard to get across some of the simplest possible ideas involving successful political campaigning here. I ‘m about ready to give it up, because……..
I find that people hooked intellectually on the science of religion are incapable of demonstrating respect and cooperation with people who aren’t.
I’m NOT talking about the reality and truth of the physical sciences. I’m talking about getting along with other men and women, who live in the same physical and economic spaces, but different intellectual worlds.
You’re doing the real Trumpster’s work for them. I can’t believe you two are so stupid that you can’t grasp this obvious truth.
Sure preachers all thru the south defended slavery here in the USA. But preachers all thru the north despised and condemned it.
If you’re so boneheaded and proud of being part of an intellectual elite that you are incapable of recognizing that there is both good and bad involved in religion, well…….. You’re not as smart as you think you are.
Maybe your problem is that people like you are too fond of preening your intellectual feathers for the benefit of the praise and envy and sense of membership that comes with your being insiders in the cult of science.
In the meantime, if you happen to be traveling out in the boonies, and your car breaks down, don’t forget that the odds of somebody stopping to help you will be substantially enhanced if you are in a community where religion is widely practiced, lol, as opposed to one where in people vote to help their fellow men by way of hiring social workers.
Lay preachers stop and help out people with flat tires. I know some social workers. They don’t stop and talk to strangers as a rule. They’ve been taught to be afraid of their fellow man, lol, except if he first comes in for an appointment to get a handout.
REMEMBER……. everything that ‘s printed here is freely available to anybody with an internet connection. You’re driving away potential political converts to the enviromental camp.
I have personally persuaded a number of people who still believe in the Seven Days story, etc, that unless we change our ways, ourselves, the END is truly near, environmentally, and that it won’t take Jesus coming down from the sky for it to happen.
BUT I FOUND IT NECESSARY TO AVOID REFERRING THEM TO THIS SITE, which is a real shame, because there is such a wealth of useful information to be had here, free of charge.
Yes, Bill is probably a troll, but this does not negate the fact that there are REAL PEOPLE, a LOT of real people out there, who believe much the same things as he posted.
Get this thru your head, fellas.
The VAST majority of the people of this country are either scientifically illiterate, or close to being so. Talking science at them, while insulting them in the same breath, is about as useful as speaking in a foreign language and giving displaying the straight finger , when it comes to securing their political cooperation.
EO Wilson, who is one of the foremost scientists of our time, would never say anything like you guys have just said. Think about it.
I hate to say it in so many words, but both you guys would benefit ENORMOUSLY if you were to read a few non scientifically oriented books, starting with HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE, and a little history as well.
What makes you think we haven’t?!
As for the occasional sincere open minded Christian, Muslim or Jew who might be coaxed by you or anyone else to venture to this blog and therefore change their world views about the economy and the environment based on rational science based arguments, I’m afraid I’m far from convinced that is a significant enough impact for any of us to to be all that concerned about.
To be clear, I doubt you will find any of us handing out pamphlets expressing our views outside of any churches, mosques or synagogues.
I am quite content to live and let live and most certainly do not go out of my way looking for ways to antagonize those people or create conflict with them. I have better things to do! When they occasionally show up at my doorstep I treat them with respect and simply decline to engage with them.
That is very different from how I respond to trolls that show up here.
BTW, if some religious asshat were to show up at my doorstep early some Sunday shouting at me to repent and change my ways you can be sure that I’d call the cops on them and have them removed from my premises for trespassing and disturbing the peace!
Ahem……
The thing that makes me think perhaps you haven’t, or that if you did ,the lesson didn’t take, is that you continue to talk the same way, lol.
You won’t win any of the tens of millions of voters over who take offense.
You lose the opportunity to widen their intellectual horizons because having insulted them, UNNECESSARILY, they won’t read a forum such as this one more than once…… chock full of relevant and accurate information though it is.
Something tells me I may have gotten thru to at least a couple of people who are regulars here in this respect. That’s the way political battles are won, in the last analysis, by boots on the ground, one person at a time.
Cheers.
You won’t win any of the tens of millions of voters over who take offense.
As Ron said, we’re not here to change hearts and minds.
We are the converted (from religion to science and then down into the dark depths of the coming apocalypse). The majority of regular posters here (at least on the non-oil side) are at least agnostic if not atheist. We are here to talk to each other, not make political points with an audience that may or may not exist. Peggy and her ilk are here to interrupt our conversation. No more, no less.
So fuck ’em.
-Lloyd
“Peggy and her ilk are here to interrupt our conversation. No more, no less. ”
Yep, and they are highly successful at it comparing the number of responses to technical and scientific questions as compared to “troll” comments. The trolls win by a landslide.
Tells us something, does it not?
Hi Gonefishing,
The comments could simply be ignored.
Exactly my point, they are not ignored. I am speaking about the number of comments that follow the troll comments. They seem to attract more attention than other comment types by far.
Yea, fuck ’em.
No more sick apologist sucking up to superstition.
Get this thru your head, fellas.
No, you get this through your head Mac. I am not trying to win friends and influence people. I am only interested in telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Religion is bullshit from top to bottom. Religion poisons everything.
EO Wilson, who is one of the foremost scientists of our time, would never say anything like you guys have just said. Think about it.
Bullshit. You very obviously know nothing about E.O. Wilson.
E. O. Wilson: I’m not an atheist but religion should be eliminated
Wilson said we ignore cues from science about the damage we are doing because of our “tribal structure”.
“All the ideologies and religions have their own answers for the big questions, but these are usually bound as a dogma to some kind of tribe. Religions in particular feature supernatural elements that other tribes – other faiths – cannot accept … And every tribe, no matter how generous, benign, loving and charitable, nonetheless looks down on all other tribes. What’s dragging us down is religious faith.”
And what really pisses me off is that most scientist will not give one inch to any kind of mysticism or ESP, because they are afraid it is contaminated by religion. Religion poisons everything. E.O. Wilson is one of very few scientists that fully understands this. That’s why he thinks religion should be eliminated.
“Humans everywhere have a strong tendency to wonder about whether they’re being looked over by a god or not. Practically every person ponders whether they’re going to have another life. These are the things that unite humanity.
“This transcendent searching has been hijacked by the tribal religions. So I would say that for the sake of human progress, the best thing we could possibly do would be to diminish, to the point of eliminating, religious faiths. But certainly not eliminating the natural yearnings of our species or the asking of these great questions.”
I ask the great questions Mac. I try to get science to ask the great questions. But some great questions, they think, smack of religion. I think the great questions have no need to give one inch to religion. All religion is bullshit. Again, religion poisons everything.
Mac, I have read many books by Wilson. Obviously, you have not.
Again, religion poisons everything.
It is hard for the still poisoned to grasp reality.
Dennett has explored this throughly. This is a problem that will possibly lead to our extinction.
Many of my friends would have disagreed Ron; they claimed church, if nothing else, is a great place to meet girls. The question is, does going to church to meet girls (or make business contacts) have anything to do with religion? Never gone a church (well a few weddings and funerals) so need guidance here. Thanks in advance. 🙂
Socialization is part of religions motive of operandi. It’s used like candy or an additive drug. It also preys on humans during times of weakness(early education- schools, illness- hospitals, death- eternal life).
Children’s holiday letters to Satan
https://www.kcrw.com/news-culture/shows/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/childrens-letters-to-satan-and-other-christmas-stories
Merry Christmas to all. 😀
I don’t read the non-petroleum posts ofte, so maybe someone has already posted this.
It’s insane how much electricity bitcoin mining uses.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40503695/what-can-we-do-about-bitcoins-enormous-energy-consumption
But this article says the estimates are too high. They are still high, however.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2016/06/27/heres-how-much-energy-all-us-data-centers-consume
Here’s How Much Energy All US Data Centers Consume
Second study of its kind in history shows overall growth in data center energy use has flattened
On the upside:
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/6/16734228/google-renewable-energy-wind-solar-2017
Energy hog Google just bought enough renewables to power its operations for the year
The company uses as much electricity as San Francisco.
By Umair Irfan Dec 6, 2017, 2:30pm EST
Recently, Google announced that it has purchased a whopping 3 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity — equal to what all of its offices and data centers around the world use on an annual basis.
The tech giant was able to hit this target of matching 100 percent of its energy use after closing new deals to buy wind and solar power generated in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Iowa, adding to several purchases it has made since 2012.
It’s a major accomplishment that affirms Google is more aggressive about buying renewable energy for its operations than any of its corporate peers. But let’s be clear: This does not mean Google is “powered” by renewables. Instead, the company hit this mark largely by buying renewable energy certificates (RECs), which ensure a certain quantity of wind and solar electricity is allocated to a given use. In other words, Google bought renewable power in quantities that match its consumption, even though that renewable electricity isn’t necessarily powering its operations directly.
So we still have a lot of work to do!
REC’s? That is a way that allowed power companies to get away with their failing to reach commitments for using renewable energy. In other words they got to buy credit for someone else making renewable energy thus allowing them to keep polluting.
It’s a version of a fine system that is supposed to encourage people to use renewable energy but really says its fine to pollute if you pay some extra money. Basically it’s a subsidy to renewable energy providers (private or corporate).
Where did that extra money go? Maybe it bought somebody a car and the gasoline to make it move. There is no control over where the money actually goes after the individual or company receives it.
Eventually the polluting power company is supposed to install enough clean power to meet the state requirements for renewable energy. The certificates lose value as the polluters meet actual renewable energy requirements.
REC’s? That is a way that allowed power companies to get away with their failing to reach commitments for using renewable energy. In other words they got to buy credit for someone else making renewable energy thus allowing them to keep polluting.
True enough! Though it does ignore the financial realities that are creating actual change on the ground. While Google may not yet be operating all its server farms on 100% defacto renewables, they certainly have shown progress in that direction. I have no doubt that they will eventually achieve that result not so much because they care about the environment, though they do at least pay lip service to such goals, but because it makes economic sense.
Yes Fred, the idea is to eventually get the power companies to take up renewable energy, as I stated.
One company took a strange route to help satisfy the requirements, probably a brain-child of their financial department. They put single solar panels on their power poles over a large region. Now many of these panels were not facing due south and were in shaded areas, so I think they get credit for the listed power of the panel versus the actual power provided. There is no way to monitor the actual power directly, they are fed right into the power lines.
This avoided their having to acquire or use land and buildings to cover the initial requirements. I always wondered how they stood up to strong wind storms.
They also created 4 landfill/brownfield solar farms on the ground.
The project was done in three phases starting in 2009 and ending this year. The first phase was installed at $6.45 per watt and the last phase was installed at $2.45 per watt.
All this time to put up 115 MW of PV for a company that has 10,380 MW of generation capacity, at a cost of almost $900 million.
Better to let the private sector do the job.
All this time to put up 115 MW of PV for a company that has 10,380 MW of generation capacity, at a cost of almost $900 million.
Better to let the private sector do the job.
Hard to say, but hopefully Alphabet, that’s Google’s parent company is run by people who are somewhat more intelligent and perhaps even more ethical.
At the very least they are an integral part of that ‘Private Sector’, you mention.
I meant the actual installation of PV, not financial and marketing geniuses who merely play a game with certificates that can make them money.
I meant exactly the same thing. If it were up to me all certificates would be etched into the glass of the solar panels.
My point all along has been that despite the use of financial instruments such as RECs, Google is actually also building out large scale solar farms, wind generation and even battery storage to power their server farms.
Dunno but I’m getting the impression that my written communications skills must be in serious decline, perhaps in parallel with my slipping mental state? Maybe I need to get out on the water more often…
No disrespect intended, but I have noticed some change in tone in your comments lately. Maybe some good outdoor recreation will get you in a better frame of mind. I am headed out now to brave the wind on this cold but sunny day up here to “Get the stink blown off me.”. 🙂
I think Fred is suffering from Vitamin D poisoning…too much sun.
Moving to Michigan is the only known cure…though it may be worse than the disease. 🙂
-Lloyd
Kazakhstan Says Ready to Provide Iran with Concentrated Uranium
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2017/12/24/1609540/kazakhstan-says-ready-to-provide-iran-with-concentrated-uranium
Happy Christmas! May peace be with you today and in the new year.
Merry Christmas,thank`s,…Jesus child,he is born,today
Again? Wow! How many times is that now?
Had I only populated my Bitcoin Wallet or sold 50 Tesla’s
Tesla Roadster 2.0 Envy
Happy Holidays
https://youtu.be/7lMVfGOuGh8
Latest Podcast – got 40 Billion to waste on Centralized Generation?
https://www.greentechmedia.com/podcast/the-energy-gang
For many years a few economists have been predicting the economic collapse of China. They keep building ghost cities that remain empty and likely always will. Massive construction requires millions of construction workers and the building materials required to build these ghost cities supports the employment of millions more. And they are investing their hard earned wages in bonds that finance even more ghost cities.
But now cracks are starting to show in that financial Ponzi scheme.
China Central Bank Official Says Bankruptcy May Benefit the Country
China needs Detroit-like bankruptcy to solve excessive debt problems – central bank
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-95490894/
The gist of this article is that better educated Republican voters are turning their back on the R party, since the coming of Trump, in ever increasing numbers.
There’s now a very real possibility, although still somewhat of a long shot, that the D’s will regain control of both houses of Congress in 2018.
It’s not often mentioned among the more liberal political set, but a substantial number of union blue collar people who are generally reliable D voters voted for Trump last time. It’s not too likely they will vote for him again, because they are going to see that he has done and will do next to nothing about keeping jobs home , or bringing jobs home, while at the same time giving substantial tax breaks to the investor class.
So far, I haven’t seen anything saying what changes if any are in the tax bill that will benefit wage earning families and individuals earning less than a hundred thousand or so.
Unions are pretty good at getting the word out about such things to their members and the public.
Isn’t a “better educated Republican” an Oxymoron ? They all voted Trump
Donald Trump: ‘I love the poorly educated’
Of course, we know why. They are his base. The “better educated” all voted against him.
The Turkish word for turkey is hindi, because they thought it was an Indian animal. In the Hindi language turkeys are called peru, as in Portuguese. There were Portuguese colonies in India. In Peru, on the other hand, the word is pavo, which is Spanish for peacock.
Meanwhile the Japanese call them shichimenchou, seven faced bird. No idea where that comes from.
Merry Xmas.
LOL! TKS! Great post!
Zaggut -Es.Sider oil pipeline disrupted by explosion
NOC expects a production losses of 70,000 to 100,000 barrels/day.
https://noc.ly/index.php/en/new-4/3079-zaggut-es-sider-oil-pipeline-disrupted-by-explosion
Blazing a Trail Toward the Energy Grid of the Future
The New York Power Authority (NYPA) has taken a huge step forward in increasing the efficiency of its operations with the opening of its new Integrated Smart Operations Center (iSOC), which harnesses the capabilities of state-of-the-art digitization technologies. The center, located in White Plains, N.Y., was officially opened with a ribbon-cutting ceremony on December 11 (Figure 1), after only five months of construction. The iSOC is an important milestone in New York Governor Cuomo’s ambitious Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) strategy and positions NYPA to become the first end-to-end digital public utility in the U.S.
At the heart of the iSOC is the collection of data from more that 24,000 sensors that monitor all of NYPA’s generation and transmission assets. The data are displayed, in real time, on screens that cover an impressive-looking 81-ft video wall.
Within the iSOC is the Advanced Grid Innovation Lab for Energy (AGILe), which can model the entire utility grid and allow simulations to be run, for example to learn where there are needs to strengthen the grid. This can be particularly useful as New York gains momentum in the use of renewable energy sources
http://www.powermag.com/blazing-a-trail-toward-the-energy-grid-of-the-future/
To fission or not to fission. That is the question when tremors shift through the energy industry. What is to live, what is to die? Ah mortality, change is thy name.
New Jersey lawmakers on Wednesday advanced a roughly $300 million bill that would raise utility ratepayers’ costs to rescue the state’s nuclear power industry from what some say is impending financial ruin.
http://www.elp.com/articles/2017/12/bill-to-help-new-jersey-s-nuclear-power-plants-advances.html
And from Dubai we have this cool concept, no pun intended, The Sustainable City…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCKz8ykyI2E
Published on Mar 17, 2017
We spent an amazing day at the Sustainable City, a housing development in Dubai with 3,500 people already living there and it’s still not quite finished.
This truly is a remarkable achievement, a stark lesson to building contractors the world over. It’s not more expensive to build and it’s hugely cheaper and more efficient to live in.
Spread the word if you know any builders!
More Info: http://www.thesustainablecity.ae/
That is an amazingly beautiful town they have created within a great looking city. A grand effort that is an example to the rest of the world.
Sadly they are living in an extreme climate already, one that will see even greater extremes. They also have most of their infrastructure and population within 9 meters of current sea level. Their future is very dependent upon global warming and it’s effects.
http://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay.aspx?newsID=70898
Assuming we eventually create an AI computer system that has a reasonable level of intelligence. What would it become if it ever got into the internet? Much of the information on the internet is incomplete, fragmented, inconsistent, dysfunctional, partial truths and outright lies.
Let’s be clear about the differences between narrow AI which is here today and general AI which is akin to consciousness and self awareness as an emergent property of multiple interacting complex systems. We probably have a very long way to go before we need to fear a highly intelligent, conscious, self aware general AI, taking over the internet and using it for its own purposes. Granted the chances of something like that happening, even within our own remaining lifetimes, is still a non zero chance, so we should at least consider the possibility.
Though narrow AI is already pretty amazing in its own right.
https://boingboing.net/2016/06/02/deep-learning-ai-autoencodes.html
Deep learning AI “autoencodes” Blade Runner, recreates it so faithfully it gets a takedown notice
Artist and researcher Terence Broad is working on his master’s at Goldsmith’s computing department; his dissertation involved training neural networks to “autoencode” movies they’ve been fed.
“Autoencoding” is a process that reduces complex information to a small subset that the neural net believes to be most significant; in Broad’s dissertation, he reduced each frame of Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner to a 200 digit number, then invoked the net to reconstruct the image just using that data.
The result was nothing short of fantastic — the neural net, working naively to identify the significant elements of each frame, without human supervision, was able to capture the most important data so well that its reconstruction of Blade Runner triggered a copyright notice from Warner Brothers when he posted it to Youtube.
Note: As I was composing this comment, my screen froze and then my laptop started emitting sounds that could only be described as sarcastic laughter while my screen displayed very strange multi colored blinking light patterns… 😉
HAL? HAL is that you? HAL?
To be more explicit about my own thoughts, I was not concerned with a takeover of the internet but how an AI entity would be able to differentiate between valid and invalid information on the internet. How would it even begin to judge what is right and wrong or just fictional?
Well, that’s what I was kinda getting at by posting the Blade Runner example.
the neural net, working naively to identify the significant elements of each frame, without human supervision, was able to capture the most important data so well that its reconstruction of Blade Runner triggered a copyright notice from Warner Brothers when he posted it to Youtube
It all depends on the deep learning algorithm and the data it is fed. I don’t have a link handy at the moment but I read an article recently about a deep learning algorithm that in a very short time was able to learn about skin cancers so well that it was able to correctly diagnose a melanoma that even the best dermatologist said wasn’t cancer. When they did the biopsy it turned out to be malignant.
On the other hand there have been some strange developments such as this:
http://www.pcgamer.com/facebook-kills-ai-that-invented-its-own-language-because-english-was-slow/
Facebook kills AI that invented its own language because English was slow
Some wonderful things are in development because of advances made in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. At the same time, there is perhaps an uncomfortable fear that machines may rise up and turn against humans. Usually the scenario is brought up in a joking matter, but it was no laughing manner to researchers at Facebook who shut down an AI they invented after it taught itself a new language, Digital Journal reports.
The AI was trained in English but apparently had grown fed up with the various nuances and inconsistencies. Rather than continue down that path, it developed a system of code words to make communication more efficient…
…During one exchange, two bots named Bob and Alice abandoned English grammar rules and started communicating using the made up language. Bob kicked things off by saying, “I can i i everything else,” which prompted Alice to respond, “balls have zero to me to me to me…” The conversation went on in that manner.
The researchers believe the exchange represents more than just a bunch of nonsense, which is what it appears to be on the surface. They note that repeating words and phrases such as “i” and “to me” are indicative of how AI works. In this particular conversation, they believe the bots were discussing how many of each item they should take.
If it were me, I would have put together a team of linguists, cognitive neuroscientists, and computer scientists to study and learn the new language.
BTW since I speak a few languages and have worked as a technical and scientific translator, I’m fascinated by AI translation such as that employed by Google. In the past few years I have noticed a significant improvement in the quality of Google Translate.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/tech-and-science/technology/a-step-closer-to-skynet-ai-invents-a-language-humans-can-t-read/article/498142
AI language translates human ones
In a separate case, Google recently improved its Translate service by adding a neural network. The system is now capable of translating much more efficiently, including between language pairs that it hasn’t been explicitly taught. The success rate of the network surprised Google’s team. Its researchers found the AI had silently written its own language that’s tailored specifically to the task of translating sentences.
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If AI-invented languages become widespread, they could pose a problem when developing and adopting neural networks. There’s not yet enough evidence to determine whether they present a threat that could enable machines to overrule their operators.
They do make AI development more difficult though as humans cannot understand the overwhelmingly logical nature of the languages. While they appear nonsensical, the results observed by teams such as Google Translate indicate they actually represent the most efficient solution to major problems.
Good or bad? can’t really say…
Wild animals don’t really pay much attention to us, other than in a cursory way. Why should AI?
Again, are we talking narrow or general AI? Conscious or not?
But regardless, back to my interest in translation.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2114748-google-translate-ai-invents-its-own-language-to-translate-with/
Google Translate AI invents its own language to translate with
For example, if the neural network has been taught to translate between English and Japanese, and English and Korean, it can also translate between Japanese and Korean without first going through English. This capability may enable Google to quickly scale the system to translate between a large number of languages.
“This is a big advance,” says Kyunghyun Cho at New York University. His team and another group at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany have independently published similar studies working towards neural translation systems that can handle multiple language combinations.
New common language
Google’s researchers think their system achieves this breakthrough by finding a common ground whereby sentences with the same meaning are represented in similar ways regardless of language – which they say is an example of an “interlingua”. In a sense, that means it has created a new common language, albeit one that’s specific to the task of translation and not readable or usable for humans.
Cho says that this approach, called zero-shot translation, still doesn’t perform as well as the simpler approach of translating via an intermediary language. But the field is progressing rapidly, and Google’s results will attract attention from the research community and industry.
“I have no doubt that we will be able to train a single neural machine-translation system that works on 100 plus languages in the near future,” says Cho.
Bold mine. I’d like to be able to understand and get insights from what is happening under the hood from that part I bolded:
In a sense, that means it has created a new common language,.
I guess AI is too simple minded to ask that question yet.
Of course we can always give them a maze test to see if they are as good as a mouse.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601646/the-ai-machines-undergoing-behavioral-psychology-tests/
Maybe the military is using DOOM to test it’s AI programs.
Of course we can always give them a maze test to see if they are as good as a mouse.
Haven’t used a mouse since the mid 2000s, use touch pad or touch screen instead. 😉
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Fingerprints all over the displays. One more crack in civilization. HD seen through oil tracks. Nice. 🙂
Didn’t kids used to get yelled at for putting their sticky little hands on the TV screen?
OK, without looking it up, what was the name of Pinky’s sidekick and what question did he always ask?
OK, without looking it up, what was the name of Pinky’s sidekick and what question did he always ask?
Not sure. By sidekick are you referring to the lady mouse?
I think the question Pinky always asked was: “What would you like to do tonight, Brain?” And Brain would always ask: Are you pondering what I’m pondering, Pinky?”
Pinky got the top billing so The Brain was the actual sidekick.
“Are you pondering what I am pondering?”
Pinky was bored and hung around The Brain ( a total nutcase character) to get some action.
Check out this time-lapse of the lake steam on Lake Superior this morning! Water temperatures are near 35°F. Air temperature was -9°F with a wind chill around -31°F.
https://www.facebook.com/KBJR6/videos/10158314919596337/
If post to Facebook video then: System Logic fail alert… If FALSE then: NO! You can’t i i everything else! Zero Putin checks to you to you to you! Return under under under bridge now… Infinite LOOP LOOP LOOP! Bot bad Bot bad Bot bad . End BOT! Exit Program.
Uh Oh, Fred died his hair blonde. 🙂
Or is it the other way round?
Cute, Bob.
This might help you start to deal with common occurrences that happen over much of the world.
http://www.metlink.org/other-weather/science-in-the-sky/fog/
Where is the snow going? Arctic anomalies show reduction over time in May and June (high insolation months).
Arctic snow cover extent anomalies for land north of 60N latitude, 1967 to 2017.
Anomalies are relative to the average for 1981-2010. Solid black and red lines depict 5-yr running means for North America and Eurasia, respectively.
In the general scheme of things, June NH snow cover loss since the 1960’s is about equivalent to the loss of Arctic sea ice area, doubling the albedo effects.
Snowfall has been trending upwards in Connecticut. The average amount over fall-winter-spring, where I live, is about 45 in. Out of the last 10 years, only 3 years have had below that amount of snow. The rest of the years have been in the range of 55 to 80 in, so way past the average.
A scan of Connecticut shows partial snow cover currently.
NOAA average annual snowfall for Connecticut. Looks like it varies quite a bit across the state, which makes sense since it is a mix of coastal and hill/mountain terrain.
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Connecticut/annual-snowfall.php
To give it perspective Connecticut area is about 48,000 km2 total compared to NH snow coverage which reaches near 50 million km2 but has been generally melting earlier in the spring.
With March as the peak in Arctic snow cover, the April SWE (snow water equivalent) anomaly has been descending as can be seen in the graph below. Apparently Arctic winters are producing less snow.
A map of physics, including the Chasm of Ignorance! Great 8 minute introduction to the different areas of physics…
https://youtu.be/ZihywtixUYo
Currently Solar Noon and 18% Oil Burn. Anyone knows where it’s sourced from?
https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/
LT
Currently 21% and rising for oil sourced as the next 4 hour ramp up is getting underway.
As for sourcing of the fuel, I’ve wondered about that the past few days, and – best I could come up with, via Google images of the Wyman plant in Maine – is that the storage capacity should hold out and, presumably, be re supplied by ship.
Sourcing of that fuel might originate from New Jersey area refineries, but pure spec on my part.
Wyman cranks out about 600 Mwh, so things look to be cutting very close.
All the more so as coal, gas, nuke and even hydro seem to be flatlining … indicative, perhaps, that they are maxxed out.
Should the ten day forecast come to pass, the New England residents may consider themselves fortunate to not experience blackouts in the coming days.
28 X more wood burn than PV @ Solar Noon.
Soon start burning books?
POLAR ICE IS DISAPPEARING, SETTING OFF CLIMATE ALARMS
“Decades-old predictions of intense warming have been coming true. The ice-covered poles, both north and south, continue to change at a breathtaking pace, with profound long-term consequences, according to the scientists who study them closely. And the consequences are destined to spill over into other parts of the globe, through changing atmospheric patterns, sea currents and feedback loops of ever intensifying melting.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27122017/arctic-antarctic-sea-ice-sheets-2017-year-review-glaciers-disappearing-polar-records
Yep—
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NpmK0J3pQ3k/WkPk0PY2WVI/AAAAAAAAm8M/jQH18MzGwAQBgVund-7Xce5hPWL6nYfJQCHMYCw/fig4%255B6%255D?imgmax=800
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED, AND IT’S MORE EXTREME
• The Royal Society published a compendium of how the science has advanced, warning that it seems likelier that we’ve been underestimating the risks of warming than overestimating them.
• The American Meteorological Society issued its annual study of extreme weather events and said that many of those it studied this year would not have been possible without the influence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said recent melting of the Arctic was not moderating and was more intense than at any time in recorded history.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26122017/climate-change-science-2017-year-review-evidence-impact-faster-more-extreme
There is one issue that in my view stands out among all the others because the article makes a point of referencing it twice. That is ocean acidification and its consequences to marine ecosystem, mentioned by both the Royal Society and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Not that any of the other points are minor issues nor should they be minimized in any way. But off all the issues related to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the one that I worry about and is the one most likely to keep me up at night, it is ocean acidification.
Adendum:
Short TED talk, How the Millitary Fights Climate Change
https://www.ted.com/talks/david_titley_how_the_military_fights_climate_change#t-448123
Military leaders have known for millennia that the time to prepare for a challenge is before it hits you, says scientist and retired US Navy officer David Titley. He takes us from the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria to the icy shores of Svalbard to show how the military approaches the threat of climate change, in a refreshingly practical, nonpartisan take on climate preparedness. “The ice doesn’t care who’s in the White House. It doesn’t care which party controls your congress. It doesn’t care which party controls your parliament,” Titley says. “It just melts.”
One major disagreement I have with this article. One which I find when people try to apply single variable consequences to multi-variate situations.
There’s also an increasing chance global warming will affect a key North Atlantic current that carries ocean heat from the tropics toward western Europe, according to a 2016 study. It shows the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current weakening by 37 percent by 2100, which could have big effects on European climate and food production.
If the AMOC slows down, thus not as much warm water to the northern European regions and the British Isle, it is often suggested that the northern regions of Europe will experience a temperature drop. However, they do not take into account a large factor. By 2100 northern Europe will be several degrees C warmer than now. It is much more likely that a slowdown of the AMOC will merely moderate the global warming temperature rise they will be getting rather than reversing it.
Plus the ocean water moving north in 2100 will be warmer than at the present.
So they get lucky two different ways, moderated climate change and less sea level rise due to Greenland being nearby.
A new post on Texas output is up
http://peakoilbarrel.com/texas-update-october-2017/
and a new Open Thread Non-Petroleum
http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-december-27-2017/