84 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum August 4, 2024”

  1. Maybe solid state for EVs are coming faster than expected. This would save a lot of oil delaying doomsday.
    Also, With a 9min charge you don’t need 600m.
    Can we also forget about 100% EVs only so the grid upgrade can be approached reasonably?
    https://interestingengineering.com/energy/samsungs-ev-battery-600-mile-charge-in-9-mins

    I looked at QS it popped last month.
    https://electrek.co/2024/03/27/quantumscape-delivers-alpha-2-solid-state-prototypes-ev-automakers/

    A trend?

    Of course EVs don’t save us as Hideaway /Carnot like to pt out. The tech doing more with less seems to also increase the overshoot.

    1. “Can we also forget about 100% EVs only?”
      I’ve thought recently that this too-fast move from fossil to pure EV was a really big mistake. Why has that happened? My daughter just bought a gas powered Civic because she lives in an apartment and has no ability to charge overnight.
      I have a Volt plugin that seems to work perfectly under the circumstances that it was designed for. It’s capable of a 45 mile round trip daily commute with overnight charging on 120 volts and has a perfectly competent, but tiny, gasoline backup for both emergencies and long trips. The car will cruise all day at 70 or 80mph. I typically get close to 40 mpg on a 300 mile trip. The car is no spartan conveyance, certainly in the Camry class with ride, handling and room. My friends with full EV cars are either zealots or have access to multiple cars for short trips vs long ones.
      After driving the Volt for seven years I’m eager to own a full EV but just don’t think that the charging infrastructure is there yet for owning a single all-around EV. The future can be EV only but it will take a while. It’s good to see some continuing growth in battery tech but we will need a comparable effort on charging infrastructure.

      1. JJHman,

        I have EVs only since 2022, first EV in 2018 and that was the car most used for long and short trips. The charging infrastructure is fine at least in the Northeast US (I live in northern New England and travel fairly often to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania) beyond those areas the charging infrastructure may be inadequate in the US, but I doubt it. It will be a long tome until 100% EVs is reached, the Volt is a nice car, but Chevy no longer makes it. If self driving cars are perfected, car ownership will only make sense for the very wealthy, most people will use a robotaxi for transportation in the future.

  2. Whether or not anybody likes it, the global demand for electricity will double by 2050.

      1. Actually I mispoke/misquote- a rise of something like 50% over current levels is more likely based on what multiple sources are projecting.
        No prediction is at all certain.

        The rationale- big shift from combustion engines, growing population, growing demands for data/compute, for ac, for vehicle charging, for robotics/automation.
        It was recently reported that “On average, a ChatGPT query needs nearly 10 times as much electricity to process as a Google search.” Governments, financial institutions, surveillance/policing/military sector will become increasingly huge users of electricity for data processing. Probably squeezing out many people.

        1. Hickory,

          From 2011 to 2019 the average rate of annual growth in World electricity consumption was about 2.5% per year. If we assume the rate of growth from 2024 to 2050 is at 2.5% per year, then World electricity consumption nearly doubles by 2050 from 29925 TWh in 2023 to 58287 TWh in 2050, this is about 95% higher in 2050 tahan in 2023. Data from Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy. The projection is certain to be wrong.

          1. Its a tremendous amount of projected growth when you consider the work it took to get to this current level.

          2. Hickory,

            From 1999 to 2023 World electricity consumption doubled with an average annual rate of growth of 2.87% ( a bit faster than the average over the 2011 to 2019 period, at 2.5%). From 1985 to 2007 (22 years rather than 24 years) we also saw a doubling of World electricity consumption, so the rate of increase in electricity consumption has gradually been slowing over the past 38 years. Perhaps this trend will reverse, but note that population growth rate will continue to slow and this is likely to lead to slower GDP growth rates which might lead to slower growth in electricity consumption.

      2. JJHMAN,

        Generally prices will adjust s the supply and demand will be equal, so if demand doubles, supply doubles as well, but prices might be higher or lower than at present in real terms.

        1. Econ 101 right?
          What my question was really about was whether it is possible for supply to double in that time due to physical, political and cost restraints, regardless what projections about future growth rates in demand might be considered likely.

          1. 100% growth in 26 years is 2.7% per year. That’s not much more than the 2% that utilities used to take for granted.

            1. I’m still waiting for evidence from you Nick about the EROEI of solar that you stated was so positive months ago, but you have conveniently not posted since then.

              I’m not talking about the reports with ‘boundaries’ placed on EROEI calculations, but those that include everything.
              What you did link to in the past, were rosy reports that were meaningless, by missing out most of the energy used in construction of solar..

              Because we wont have fossil fuels available for use at some point in the near future, the EROEI of using just electricity to make and deploy solar will be necessary, so far every cornucopian has remained silent on not using fossil fuels to make and deploy solar panel systems.

            2. Hideaway, we all get that’s it’s a finite planet. I’m still waiting for you to take your repetitive alzheimer’s personality and enact your only solution to the problem. Become a leader for your cause by reducing the population. It’s time for you to walk the talk. Otherwise your all talk and no action. You have nothing to contribute here but fear and ego. Jump coward if you have the balls.

        2. Dennis, the eco 101 doesn’t work on a finite planet…
          ” so if demand doubles, supply doubles as well”

          When we have a doubling of demand on Earth’s total resources, a second Earth will magically appear if the price is high enough?? Yes or No?

          Considering that only 15% or thereabouts of humanity gets to enjoy a modern lifestyle, there is easily double or triple the demand, so exactly where do these ‘other Earth’s’ load of resources come from??

          1. Yes, economic resources are limited in supply, which is a defining characteristic of economics. This condition is known as scarcity, and it means that there are not enough resources to meet all people’s needs and wants. Scarcity affects how people value goods and services, and how governments and businesses distribute resources.
            Scarcity forces societies to make choices about how to allocate their resources, which often involves trade-offs. For example, a business might need to decide whether to assign a skilled worker to clean windows or cut diamonds, depending on which task requires more labor costs. Efficient use of economic resources is important for maximizing output and ensuring that resources are distributed in a way that benefits society as a whole.
            Economic resources include things like time, money, labor, tools, land, and raw materials. Resources can also be characterized as renewable or nonrenewable. Renewable resources, like timber, wind, and solar, can replenish themselves at the same rate they are used, while nonrenewable resources, like coal and natural gas, have a limited supply.

            When faced with limited resources, we have to make choices. Again, economics is the study of how humans make choices under conditions of scarcity. These decisions can be made by individuals, families, businesses, or societies.

            Every society, at every level, must make choices about how to use its resources. Families must decide whether to spend their money on a new car or a fancy vacation. Towns must choose whether to put more of the budget into police and fire protection or into the school system. Nations must decide whether to devote more funds to national defense or to protecting the environment. In most cases, there just isn’t enough money in the budget to do everything.

            Economics helps us understand the decisions that individuals, families, businesses, or societies make, given the fact that there are never enough resources to address all needs and desires.

            https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-microeconomics/chapter/understanding-economics-and-scarcity/#:~:text=The%20resources%20that%20we%20value,finite%20amount%20of%20resources%20available.

          2. Economics is the social science that studies how people choose between alternatives. The three fundamental economic questions are:
            What should be produced?
            How should goods and services be produced?
            For whom should goods and services be produced?

            Some central ideas in economics related to alternative choices include:

            Scarcity
            The condition of having to choose between alternatives, which results from limited resources and unlimited wants. For example, land is scarce because it can be used for many different things, such as building a house, creating a park, or leaving it undeveloped.
            Opportunity cost
            The value of the best alternative that is forgone when making a choice. For example, if you spend $20 on a potted plant, you are giving up the opportunity to spend that money on something else, like a book or a movie.
            Trade-off
            Every choice involves a trade-off, where something must be given up in order to get something else.

            Economists also assume that people make choices that they believe will create the maximum value for them, given their constraints.

            https://open.lib.umn.edu/macroeconomics/chapter/1-1-defining-economics/#:~:text=All%20choices%20mean%20that%20one,%2C%20choice%2C%20and%20opportunity%20cost.

  3. Japanese stocks are down another 6.5% or about 2400 points. And the week has just begun.

    Where the hell is the Japanese plunge protection team at 🤣

    I’m just going to point out this isn’t necessarily an unwinding of carry trade. It’s an unwinding of Japanese stock market due to BOJ decision.

    Money leaving the Japanese stocks turns into Japanese yen before it is moved elsewhere. A lot of this money leaving the stock market won’t be staying in Japan.

    They literally sacrificed their stock market to boost their currency. The currency can strengthen more if stocks continue selling. But the majority of that money won’t be staying in Japan so it amounts to a temporary fix in their currency depreciation.

    1. HHH, you might want to rethink this..
      “They literally sacrificed their stock market to boost their currency.”

      If overseas interests sell stocks in Japan, they get Yen for the sale. They then need to exchange yen for Dollars or whatever to move their funds to ‘other’ places. This is more yen being exchange for dollars, so increases demand for dollars in yen, forcing the yen down relatively.

      1. There is nothing to rethink. Due to direction their central has chosen. Which is to not support the economy or asset prices. Japan has become sale Japan.

        The yen can strengthen massively right before it implodes. It’s just part of the process of actually getting your money out of Japan.

        Of course we all know their central bank will cave and reverse course at some point. I don’t think it will actually take all that long either. As their banks stocks are getting slaughtered.

        Ultimately they will have to accept a much lower valued Yen.

        From a Eurodollar point of view. If your a bank would you really want to expose yourself to the mess that is taking place in Japan? Perhaps Japanese government debt gets rejected as collateral in the Eurodollar system. If that happens the Japanese ability to access dollar liquidity becomes extremely impaired and costly. Don’t be fooled by the strengthening Yen. It’s a short term phenomenon due to the selling of assets.

        The real carry trade unwind is when Japanese banks lose their ability to leverage Japanese debt as collateral to make dollar denominated loans across the globe.

        CLO derivatives in the US blowup then as Japanese banks looking for yield have to exit due to insufficient collateral.

        That’s the real carry trade unwind.

        1. Not just Japan to look at now anyway. Seems like the contagion of last Friday is moving around the world given the job numbers Stateside and the likes of Buffett and GS calling the top on tech bubble shit.

          1. Japanese stocks are currently down over 9% on the day. Over 3400 points.

            Crypto is getting smashed across the board.

            VIX is over 60.

            1. Everything’s back to normal now. We’re fine.

              Gonna go buy some more Intel stock. Got a good feeling.

  4. Monday morning trivia

    OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM AND ECOPETROL TO DRILL WORLD’S DEEPEST OFFSHORE OIL WELL

    • Occidental Petroleum and Ecopetrol plan to drill Komodo-1, the world’s deepest offshore oil well, off Colombia’s waters, reaching a depth of 3,900 meters.
    • Improvements in marine-seismic technology have enabled exploration at greater depths and distances, revolutionizing offshore oil drilling.
    • The global energy sector is experiencing a deepwater drilling boom, with deepwater oil and gas production projected to increase by 60% by 2030.

    “The global energy sector is currently experiencing a deepwater drilling boom. According to Wood Mackenzie, deepwater oil and gas production is set to increase by 60% by 2030, to contribute 8% of overall upstream production. Deepwater production remains the fastest-growing upstream oil and gas segment, with production expected to hit 10.4 million boe/d in 2022 from just 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in 1990. Wood Mackenzie has predicted that by the end of the decade, that figure will pass 17 million boe/d. Meanwhile, ultra-deepwater production is set to continue growing at breakneck speed to account for half of all deepwater production by 2030.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Occidental-Petroleum-and-Ecopetrol-to-Drill-Worlds-Deepest-Offshore-Oil-Well.html

  6. Carry trade was a fantasy there is no free ride. Iceland provided that nearly 20 years ago. Time to pay the piper.

    1. The dip got bought. Time will tell if this is a bottom or not.

      The dip in the USD/JPY got bought. You can see it in all the Yen crosses. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and CHF/JPY. The Yen bounced or gave back a significant amount of it’s gains to form a bottoming tail candlestick.

      I’d expect a bounce in Japanese stocks at the very least and a possible bottom. AUD/JPY closed the day almost 400 points up off its lows. If stocks were going lower I’d expect AUD/JPY to close much closer to its lows than it did.

  7. Israel is officially in economic depression……..

    someone stated

    but who knows

    1. Taking on Hezbollah and Iran at the same time will juice the economy. Think about how well the glaziers will do once all of Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem need them.

  9. Yes, coal is still alive and well.

    GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION HITS RECORD HIGHS

    • Global coal production reached a record high in 2023, driven by Asia Pacific countries, particularly China and India.
    • Coal consumption also hit a new high, with China remaining the largest consumer, responsible for over half of the world’s coal use.
    • Coal consumption continues to decline in Western countries, reflecting ongoing transitions to cleaner energy sources.

    “Notably, China’s production and consumption have reached unprecedented levels, further solidifying its role as the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. India’s rising consumption, surpassing the combined totals of Europe and North America, underscores the shifting dynamics in global energy use. Meanwhile, coal consumption continues to decline in Western countries, reflecting ongoing transitions to cleaner energy sources.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Global-Coal-Production-Hits-Record-Highs.html

    1. Environmental regulations as well as any other regulation that affect product costs without import restrictions are useless or worse. But China is now producing much more for local consumption so export restrictions on them are much less effective then they would have been 20 years ago.
      We’ll all burn together.

    2. Not that the numbers are actually for electricity consumption in Exajoules by production method, not fuel consumption. They don’t reflect any changes in efficiency (like exajoules per ton).

  10. Quietly doing our bit on the drive to increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

    CANADIAN WILDFIRE EMISSIONS DOUBLE PREVIOUS RECORD AS FLAMES RAGE ON

    “Forest fires in Canada this year have released 290 million tonnes of carbon, doubling a previous annual record, and emissions are set to rise as hundreds of flames remain active across the country, according to the EU’s Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service. The estimated Canadian fires emissions account for over 25% of the global total for 2023 to date, and are well above the previous Canadian record of 138 million tonnes registered in 2014, Copernicus said on Thursday. Satellite monitoring of emissions began in 2003. Nearly all of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories have been impacted by wildfires. On Thursday, there were more than 1,040 fires burning in Canada, with about 660 considered out of control.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-wildfire-emissions-double-previous-record-flames-rage-2023-08-03/

  11. BOJ reversed course and now won’t be hiking interest rates. Japanese banks were at the center of why they reversed course.

    Because of low interest rates. Japanese banks leverage up by borrowing dollar using Japanese collateral and investing abroad because they have to have yield that they just can’t get at home.

    They can’t raise interest rates without blowing up their banks. So the Yen will likely accelerate lower much lower from here. Carry trade unwind is over.

      1. If the FED is indeed heading into a rate cutting cycle. That is viewed as supporting asset prices in the US.

        If asset prices are going to be supported it will suck in capital from the rest of the world. Particularly Japanese banks looking for yield.

        Bad news will continue to be good news for asset prices.

        Asset prices have to be supported otherwise the banks develop huge holes in their balance sheets and go bust.

  12. Right and Wrong.
    Hideaway has been so very wrong for a long time on solar net lifecycle energy return.

    But he has a strong point on another topic, pointing out that solar and wind energy projects have a relatively short life span at 20-40 years. It is an important feature to acknowledge, just as we acknowledge the depletion and abandonment of an oil well, or 18 months uranium fuel rod lifespan (with many thousand years of storage required thereafter), or the failure of the concrete, metals and gaskets of all of our energy mechanisms due to mechanical-chemical-radiation mediated fatigue, erosion, and oxidation.
    We are on a short term ride, pretending as if the party goes on indefinitely.
    None of this experiment is sustainable.
    Our expectations need to be much lower. We have deluded ourselves about the prospects of the global economic project and the level of population that can be supported, beyond just a relatively few generations.

    But we are short timers, all of us. Our far horizon is just a one day horse ride and our forward thinking time frame is just a decade or so, at most. Thats our nature, and we don’t exert much effort to buck it.

    One of the longest timeframe economic activities we engage in is the planting of nut orchards. They can produce for 50-100 years, with a huge EROEI when planted in optimal locales. Takes patience, with a stable family and a stable culture.
    Most everything else is a shorter term, lower yield exercise.

    1. I remember reading that the ancient relationship between olive branches and peace was that it too so long for olive trees to bear fruit that no one would plant them unless they thought the long term future was secure.
      Has the long term future ever been secure?

      1. It is Israeli state policy to uproot and kill the fruit bearing trees of Palestinians. Then the spray the land with salt. Just saying.

        1. It’s a lovely example of how mankind is marching firmly in the wrong direction. The biggest problem in the Mideast is that after thousands of years of agriculture, the place is have been turned into a desert.

          All efforts in the region should be focused on rain catching and soil restauration. Instead they kill each other and wreck the landscape arguing about which version of their imaginary space friend (originally a god of storms and of course rain) is real.

          1. Alim:
            I think each would acknowledge that they all worship the same god but that he likes them best. The others have been deceived by some evil entity. They all say that.
            I realized recently that the Jews and Palestinians are the same people, each claiming to be the original residents of the land. The fact is that the Jews now in power are descendants of those that left in the various diasporas and now claim that they have kept the deeds in their sock drawer these past 2,000 or so years. The Palestinians are the Jews, Canaanites and such that stayed in the region and happened to be hanging around when Mohammad and his pals came around.
            It’s not about religion, race, culture or any such nonsense. It’s about land, power and wealth and who can corral enough followers to prevail. Same story everywhere.

            1. It is complex, though. Why did the displaced refugees from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan find places to live and move on with life after the partition of India, and the Germans from what is now Kaliningrad did the same, but Palestinian refugees didn’t?

              One wonders: did KSA, Iran, Iraq, etc have a vested interest in keeping conflict with Israel alive as a distraction from the illegitimacy of fragile, autocratic, kleptocracies?

              The very large inequality of income and wealth in these countries is offensive to Islam, for which charity is a core value…

            2. Nick G,

              Most religions if not all have charity as a core value. Unfortunately charity doesn’t fit well within the framework of human nature in general i.e. selfishness, greed, aggression etc.
              Especially within the echelon of people who have or crave political or religious power and influence.

            3. Is it the same god? It’s like asking if the Big Bad Wolf in the Three Little Piggies story is the same wolf as the Big Bad Wolf in the Little Red Riding Hood story.

              That said, the Christian god is a Trinity, so it can’t be the same being as the Jewish or Muslim god. No true Christian can deny that.

            4. There’s also the issue of Israeli settlers taking land away from Palestinians, without any legal basis for pushing the Palestinians off their land.

            5. Longview,

              Have you seen any quantitative analysis of this problem of settlers appropriating Palestinian land?

            6. All of the players are struggling to find a place for their families and communities to live in simple security.
              Its the long story of human history.

              Remember each of you live on other peoples land, and are extremely fortunate to currently have no enemy close at hand. How would you handle the situation that the others you judge are stuck in?

  13. From the Population Media Center. No link, it was in my email inbox.

    “A little over 7 months. That’s how long it took humans to burn through Earth’s annual resources for the entire year.

    On August 1, we reached Earth Overshoot Day, the official point each year when humanity’s demand for ecological resources exceeds what the planet can regenerate in that year. Excessive consumption, overpopulation, and wasteful practices are driving the planet beyond its limits.”

  14. “GREAT NEWS! Trump Says that ‘Everyone One of Us are Gonna Be Leaving’ If Kamala Harris Wins”

    Comrades, what is your view?

    1. I’m sure Putin has a nice little dacha prepared for him. But the Black Sea coast looks a little dodgy these days. I don’t think Putin spends much time in Sochi any more.

      Maybe you think I’m being conspiratorial. I think it’s safe to say that Putin has more or less bet the house on winning in Ukraine, and a lot depends on Trump winning the election.

      1. That Putin and Netan-yahoo are both banking on a Trump victory tells you all you need to know. Whose side are you on?

    1. I wonder how the drone will do in the typical rough weather out there, but they probably thought of that.

      It’s interesting how North Sea oil led to offshore wind. It’s one big reason Europe is a leader in the field.

      It’s a repeat. The need to navigate bad weather is what pushed the countries on the West coast of Europe to develop the intercontinental ships that allowed them to conquer the world.

      Meanwhile the Turks and Venetians were still slugging it out in the Med on slave galleys that were a slight improvement on the ships used in 500 BC, and the Arabs were on Zanzibar waiting for the right wind to blow them to India, like Agamemnon sacrificed his daughter to the gods to get for the right wind to take him to Troy thousands of years before.

  17. Why the use of so much electrical power to solve climate models?

    https://eos.org/research-spotlights/modeling-earth-systems-at-a-quintillion-calculations-per-second

    Everyone is grabbing a piece of the ever expanding pie:

    “Folks, we aren’t talking about this enough. There are *5 gigawatts* of data centers in engineering phase on the ComEd grid right now, and ***13GW*** more in waiting.

    This would DOUBLE the peak load on our grid in Northern Illinois.

    How will we power these 24/7/365?”

    This is a huge power addition due to the application of information technology.

    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/exelon-pjm-capacity-auction-bge-talen-data-center/723163/

    Quintillion calcs/sec burns lots of CPU cycles to predict climate, a slight +feedback to the climate change problem. Yet, if a modern CPU is 10-20 GigaFLOPS/watt, a Quintillion FLOPS computer would use 100 MEGA watts of power. So if a hairdryer is 1000 watts, this is 100,000 hair dryers using power in parallel. Substitute that many microwave ovens, vacuum cleaners operating for days at a time. That’s the context missing from the AGU article linked above.

    Let’s see if we can compute smart and not hard, as with https://GeoEnergyMath.com.
    Likely, breakthroughs will be in understanding the nonlinear fluid dynamics, not in wasting CPU cycles going down a path that leads to the wrong answer.

    1. The good news is that every 2-3 years chip power consumption per calculation falls by about a third, and we are nowhere near the theoretical limit. The bad news is demand is growing much faster.

      One problem is the heavy use of general purpose chips for neural network calculations. Most of the energy consumption is moving the data back and forth between the calculation circuitry itself and the memory, which is physically separated, often on another chip. The distances may seem tiny — in fact you may need a microscope to even see them. However, if you move data trillions [sic] of times a second across even a short distance, it adds up.

      So there are a lot of speculative chip designs floating around that could lead to a massive improvement in energy consumption. They mostly involve somehow merging calculation circuitry and memory at the cost of flexibility. But right now it’s all just Zukunftsmusik.

  18. “In Republican Primary, Bigot Loses to Election Denier”

    I guess that sums up our Repug friends?

    1. No, no, no

      My opinion, they are mostly one of the same people. 90% of them are low truthfully informed voters. In general, they are good people but find themselves attracted to right wing misinformation fear media. Which plays alot on their poorly educated critical thinking skills, victim economic belief and sheepish personality. Not really much different than 1930’s Germany.

      1. Farming has shrunk over the last 200 years, from 95% of the economy to 1%. That’s been slow torture, and no one has explained to farmers that this is inevitable, and that they should get out of farming (and rural areas). On the contrary, farming has been romanticized.

        And, the .1% have vacuumed up most of economic growth in the last 40 years, which is victimization. Sadly, republicans and right wing media have blamed scapegoats, and uninformed rural voters have been conned into supporting this victimization.

        Very sad.

        1. Nick G … “and no one has explained to farmers that this is inevitable, and that they should get out of farming (and rural areas).”

          Of course all people should get out of farming and into cities, while we allow robots and A.I. to make and distribute all food to the cities, using automated trucks, tractors, fertilizers and pesticides in the whole process..

          Then the A.I. will one day work out that a shortage in input ‘Z’ did not occur so no food can be sent to the city until next year, when the problem has been corrected (by another A.I.) Of course no diesel for the tractors and trucks might present some problems but given enough time the A.I. will think of a solution.

          Feeding less, or no people, so the resources could be saved, would be high on the list of efficiency gains.

          Nick, how much food are you able to grow for yourself, family and local community when the trucks stop running?? Or do you propose an economic substitute for food?

          1. “how much food are you able to grow for yourself, family and local community when the trucks stop running??”

            This is an irrelevant question. Fossil fuels are going to out last this current generation. Today’s generation has expanded the food supply, housing, knowledge and standard of living for billions of humans. It’s on the next generation to continue the trend or return to the 1800’s. Get over it !

      2. Scapegoats include gays, liberals, women, blacks, immigrants, government, “coastal elites”, etc.

        Scapegoating performs several functions: 1st, it distracts attention away from the .1%, who benefit from excessive inequality.

        2nd, it divides people, and sets them to fighting each other, instead of their true problem.

        3rd, it helps reduce the credibility of the professionals that create problems for the .1%: journalists, scientists, economists, climatologists, etc.

        4th, it hurts the institutions that oppose unchecked private power: government, science, education, etc.

      3. There have been several periods of excessive inequality in US history. They tend to relate to bursts of the innovation that causes growth: cotton gin, rail, AC power, ICE, internet, etc. These in turn require innovations in siphoning new income and wealth back from investors to the real economy. The big 20th century innovation was the income tax.

        The current period more or less started with Reagan, who cut income taxes sharply, and attacked unions and government checks on private power (aka “regulation”). Trump is only the latest in a succession of increasingly aggressive minions of the .1%.

      4. The .1% includes the wealthy from both the “old” economy (ag, extraction, manufacturing) and the new (services, IT, etc). Old economy investors tend to be more aggressive, but some of those in the new economy are also a problem: e.g., Thiel, who is financing both Trump and Vance, and who is really crazy (e.g., thinks women shouldn’t be able to vote).

    1. It seems like a sensible policy that occurred to me when the Ukrainians were biting their teeth out on the Russian mine fields trying to get to Tokmak.

      The Wagner coup showed that Russia’s internal defense is weak. Prigozhin ran up from Rostov on Don to the gates of Moscow without any serious opposition. It’s best to attack where your opponent is weak.

      I even imagined that if they got as far East as Voronezh they would flank the whole occupying army in Eastern Ukraine, but that’s 300 kilometers.

      If they get to Kursk, Belgorod looks distinctly wobbly, as does Russia incursion towards Kharkiv, and taking Kursk preempts any new attacks on Sumy. Taking these Kursk and Belgorod would not lengthen the front at all, a key consideration given Ukraine’s manpower shortage.

  20. ShallowSand complains about the methane regs. Maybe he should divert the heat by fighting the livestock industry?

    [The] first proposal entailed getting the Sierra Club to endorse and advocate for what Shuman calls a federal methane cap and fee policy, which would set a cap on methane emissions for polluters — including those in the livestock industry — and require them to pay for each ton of methane emitted. It’s a classic “polluters pay” policy, and the Biden administration has proposed similar regulations for the oil and gas sector, but not the livestock sector, even though it emits more methane.

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/362224/environment-groups-meat-industry-lies-global-warming-climate-change-wwf

  21. “PV panel production costs have fallen from $5 per watt in 2000 to less than $0.25 in 2023”

    This cost includes all of the embedded energy costs for materials and manufacturing, reflecting a dramatic improvement in EROEI.
    A glimpse into the details-

    How can energy input costs/panel drop so much over time?
    “Fortunately, significant improvements in material intensity have been achieved in
    the past two decades for key materials. For instance, the polysilicon intensity of c-Si
    cells (in g/W) dropped by more than six times [!!] between 2004 and 2020 thanks to
    cell efficiency improvements, thinner diamond wire sawing and wafers, and larger
    ingots (Fraunhofer, 2022). Similarly, the silver intensity of c-Si cells (in g/cell) was cut
    by about three [!!] during 2009-2018, owing partly to improvements in screen
    printing processes (CRU, 2018).”
    And-
    “Multicrystalline silicon back surface field (BSF) technology has been gradually
    replaced by more efficient Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) cells since
    2015. Improvements in the manufacturing process and the shift to monocrystalline
    wafer production enabled rapid cost reductions, making the more efficient PERC
    cell the dominant technology. More efficient cells allow for a higher capacity while
    keeping module area the same, reducing overall solar PV generation costs.”

    On polysilicon production, which is the most energy intensive aspect of PV production-
    “Despite being energy-intensive, the energy and material efficiency of the Siemens
    process has improved significantly over the last decade and achieved almost 50%
    energy savings over the last ten years. These savings result from the electricity
    intensity of the process declining from over 70 kWh/kg in 2011 to roughly 50 kWh/kg
    in 2021 thanks to larger furnaces, upgraded furnace wall materials, a greater
    number of silicon rods and adjustment of the gas mix used during silicon
    purification.”

    “At current production levels this [global PV production] consumption is
    low compared with other large industries and makes up less than 0.2% of global
    industry energy use.”
    note- global industrial use of electricity is about 1/3rd of total electricity consumption, and electricity comprises about 20% of total global energy consumption.

    https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d2ee601d-6b1a-4cd2-a0e8-db02dc64332c/SpecialReportonSolarPVGlobalSupplyChains.pdf

    1. Thanks Hickory. Will Hideaway dispute these numbers, even with the dramatic fall in energy required, and continue to say that PV is net negative EROEI? My guess is yes.

      1. Where are the actual numbers on the EROEI?? Just because something has become ‘better’ over the last 20 years or whatever, states nothing about the actual EROEI.

        Has the EROEI increased, yes it appears to have, but the government subsidies for the cost of electricity to the Chinese factories, does muddy the waters further..

        Can a modern world of mining and industrial production run of electricity provided by solar panels alone, or do you think there might be some other energy inputs??

        Now please tell me, which individual or company has become fabulously wealthy based off selling solar electricity like Rockefeller did with standard oil? Oil through off huge profits because of the high EROEI.

        A little energy and therefore cost in, with a huge surplus of energy and therefore profit out.
        So who are the wealthy billionaires from selling solar power?

        1. Nobody gets rich selling solar. Not only that, people trying to sell fuel when people are selling solar in the same market can only sell at a loss.

          The whole idea that renewables will bring about a repeat of the fossil fuel era is misguided. You’re barking up the wrong tree.

          As Henry Ford put it, “If I had asked customers what they wanted, they would have said faster horses”.

        2. “Now please tell me, which individual or company has become fabulously wealthy based off selling solar electricity like Rockefeller did with standard oil?”

          Sunshine is a commodity that’s rather tricky to establish monopoly control over, which is something Rockefeller was able to do with oil. Some consider this a feature of renewable energy rather than a bug.

    2. One oddity of solar panels is that making them thinner actually improves performance. Making the panel “almost” two dimensional prevents the photons from bouncing around too much. So the improved cutting (and peeling off instead of cutting, not mentioned here) methods not only reduce material costs, they improve performance.

    3. I’m just reading this report and decided to quote a few bits from it, to show how not so rosy the picture really is, so thanks for providing it….

      “Material provision will need to expand as well: in fact, critical mineral demand would rise to 4 000 kt per year by 2030, up from 1 000 kt in 2021.8″
      ” By the end of 2013, local solar demand in China had recovered with sustained financial support from the Chinese government”

      You don’t get it, all the EROEI type calculations, count just the energy used in the factory as the energy input, plus the energy used at the mines, the energy used by the diesel trucks going from A to B..
      They don’t count the energy used to construct the factory, to construct and maintain the roads and bridges, ports and ships. They don’t count the energy used by workers to be educated and live and get to work, nor the energy used by the managers, accountants, lawyers, or doctors looking after the sick… All these aspects are needed to operate normally and to find out the realistic EROEI we need to include them.

      We know it was possible for a modern civilization based on fossil fuels, because it exists. We wish to replace it by using ‘something else’, but refuse to count all the energy used in providing the full system of civilization in the EROEI calculations, because it doesn’t work…

      All it is, is a growth of industrial production, using more fossil fuels, creating more CO2, more growth in economies of developing countries, more rainforest and natural world destruction to gain access to the minerals and metals..
      That’s just for the solar panels…
      Then there is the wires connecting them all up (copper), then the multitude of metals that make the inverters and substations to connect to the grid. New roads making all the solar farms accessible, paved with bitumen to reduce the dust, on the solar farm..
      Then the battery or some other backup for when it’s night or cloudy, or winter….

      We have a whole system of civilization that is going headlong over the cliff into collapse because people believe in the religion of perpetual growth on a finite planet.

      Once the oil flow starts to massively reduce, the minerals and metals will stop flowing to the factories and the solar panel production will fall to zero. All the existing panels will suffer from the usual entropy over time, a couple of decades at best, but the rest of the solar system is not as robust, and if industries have to rely upon intermittent energy it wont matter, as they will not be getting the raw materials in the first place, as everything in the supply chain will have collapsed…

      The only solutions were unacceptable, people prefer to believe in the fairy tale of renewables, so modern industrial civilization will go head first into a massive collapse as we will keep it going until it’s no longer possible.

    1. Of course. He wants to be a dictator on day one.

      As a side note, I’m thrilled with the energy (joy, compassion) around the Harris-Walz ticket and have renewed hope that Trump will never be president again.

      1. Trump’s better instincts than the Fed = How can I benefit from this.

        Trump does not understand a single thing about monetary policy
        other than he heard the Fed can print money.

  24. Nick G, for some reason I’m not able to post a reply to this question you asked:

    “Have you seen any quantitative analysis of this problem of settlers appropriating Palestinian land?”

    Just have a look at the many maps online of the West Bank, showing Iraeli settlements and Israeli-controlled areas which restrict Palestinians ability to lead a normal life. The Israelis have built settlements to expropriate and fragment Palestinian-controlled to the extent that it will undermine the ability to create a two-state solution. The UN has stated that Israel has contravened Resolution 2334.

    1. “built settlements to expropriate”
      How dare they act like the rest of humanity.
      The entire US, and Europe, among the other continents are all expropriated land.
      Generally few if any per-existing witnesses have been left to tell the story, or the story has simply been swamped by ‘history’ told by the slaughtering culture.

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