41 thoughts to “Open Thread Non-Petroleum, August 26, 2021”

  1. This might help us have better discussions. Heck, it might help us live better lives:

    “When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a “soldier” mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe—and shoot down those we don’t.

    But if we want to get things right more often, argues Galef, we should train ourselves to have a “scout” mindset. Unlike the soldier, a scout’s goal isn’t to defend one side over the other. It’s to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what’s actually true.

    In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn’t that they’re smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It’s a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world—which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think.”

    The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don’t
    by Julia Galef

    1. An example of keeping an objective mind can save ones life.

      “Texas Anti-Mask ‘Freedom Rally’ Organizer Fighting For His Life With COVID-19

      His pregnant wife said this week that the hospital was “out of options” for her husband.

      A Texas man who helped organize protests against pandemic restrictions is fighting for his life after being hospitalized for nearly a month with COVID-19, the San Angelo Standard-Times reported.

      His wife, Jessica Wallace, wrote Wednesday on Facebook that she had a “heartbreaking update” about her husband, Caleb.

      “He’s not doing good. It’s not looking in our favor,” she said. “His lungs are stiff due to the fibrosis. They called and said they’ve run out of options for him and asked if I would consent to a do not resuscitate. And it would be up to us when to stop treatments.”

      “My heart just can’t. I can’t imagine my life without him.”

      Caleb Wallace, a 30-year-old father of three, has been unconscious, ventilated and heavily sedated in the ICU at Shannon Medical Center in San Angelo since Aug. 8, the Standard-Times reported. His wife said on a GoFundMe page for household and medical bills that he was was intubated multiple times, had high fevers, infection and bleeding in his chest.

      In July, Caleb Wallace reportedly helped organize “The Freedom Rally,” an event that billed itself as a protest against the “government being in control of our lives.” He also founded “The San Angelo Freedom Defenders,” which hosted a rally last year to “end COVID tyranny.””

      https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-anti-mask-covid-caleb-wallace_n_61285af4e4b0f562f3dc5224

    2. This is pretty damned old basic human psychology recycled as something new.
      The shrinks finally figured it out over the last forty or fifty years.
      The great playwrights figured it out thousands of years ago.
      Classic novelists laid it all out over the last four or five hundred years.

      People, even serious scientific types, tend to believe whatever it is they WANT to believe, unless their wishes directly contradict THEIR OWN professional knowledge.

      Consider the case of Fred Hoyle, an astronomer who made it to the very top of his profession. He’s lost when it comes to basic evolutionary theory.

      1. This is pretty damned old basic human psychology

        She acknowledges that. Thucydides was apparently the earliest surviving writing about it.

        recycled as something new.

        Well, have you taken a look at the book? There are a lot of people working on faulty reasoning, and she brings together useful ideas about how to deal with the problem.

        Really, we know that this isn’t an easy problem for people to deal with. We can use all the help we can get.

  2. George Kaplan,

    I agree with you about Paul. I’ve said for years and years that he (Saul) should have been boiled at birth.

    1. Hint:
      No need for Bronze and Iron Age Fiction on an oil site.
      If you must, Homer is far superior.
      Bad, violent fiction.

  5. The forecast for Hurricane Ida, and the fact that there are few-to-no ICU beds available from Texas to Florida, is giving me the frickin’ willies.

  6. Obviously, they’re not taking their vitamin supplements (and horse medicine). 😉

    COVID IN CALIFORNIA: THE STATE IS STRUGGLING TO CONTAIN THE VIRUS

    “Since November, deaths have surged by more than 1,000%. In Los Angeles alone, nearly 2,000 people died this week. Makeshift morgues have been set up across the state, ICUs are full, oxygen is being rationed and ambulance teams have been told not to transport those unlikely to survive the night because hospitals are too full.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-55578098

      1. Is this recent enough for you?

        California COVID-19 Facts for Thursday Afternoon, August 26, Confirmed Cases: 4,157,319 (Up 11,769 Over Wednesday), – 64,931 Deaths (Up 129 Over Wednesday) – 22,330,520 People Fully Vaccinated – Positivity Rate: 5.4%

        https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/32729-california-covid-19-facts-for-thursday-afternoon-august-26-confirmed-cases-4-157-319-up-11-769-over-wednesday-64-931-deaths-up-129-over-wednesday-22-330-520-people-fully-vaccinated-positivity-rate-5-4

  7. Most people drive lots of small trips, and a few longer trips.
    Since we will all be changing what we consider ‘normal’ ways of living,
    it may be worth thinking about changing the kind of vehicle you own.

    A car with a battery range of a 100 miles would serve the daily needs of many people, and would be more affordable and use less material/battery.
    And when such a person needed a different vehicle to haul some cargo or take a longer trip such a vehicle could be rented, or shared.
    This will be a different model for most (Americans anyway), who generally buy a vehicle to handle the most extreme use they plan, even if it is just twice a year. That is how I have operated for much of my adult life.
    That is why grocery store lots are filled with pickups and large suvs- its not because toilet paper is so big and heavy.

    Along these lines-
    https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/26/smaller-cheaper-electric-suvs-coming-from-hyundai-kia-volkswagen-and/

    1. Since we will all be changing what we consider ‘normal’ ways of living,
      it may be worth thinking about changing the kind of vehicle you own.

      I’d be pleased to see smaller vehicles: cheaper, safer for everyone, cleaner, etc. But I don’t see Peak Oil or climate change prevention forcing that change. US car makers will just hybridize or electrify big vehicles.

      It would very likely work better to repeal the Chicken Tax. This Tax incentivizes American car makers to produce SUVs and pickups:

      “What Is the Chicken Tax?
      The Chicken Tax is a 25% tariff on light trucks imported to the U.S., imposed in retaliation for European tariffs on American chicken imports. The tariff was imposed in 1964 in an executive order issued by President Lyndon Johnson.1 In the years since then, trade barriers have fallen and the average U.S. tariff rate on industrial imports stands at 2% as of late 2019, according to U.S. government figures.2 But the Chicken Tax still stands.”

      https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chicken-tax.asp

    2. It is kind of controversial the whole key question. How do you degrow the economy?

      At least in my country the left side is winning in how to govern this (unavoidable?) phase going forward. As is the case in Germany, France, Spain and Italy as far as I am concerned. Currency is one thing, but what about standard of living and industrial capacity? Very much energy dependent. I am very much for the longevity aspect of renewable energy (metal based) replacing fossil fuels. And you could say the mass raw material resources like coal, iron, concrete can be concentrated to most desired need for some time. And I guess the capitalist dream can be turned down a notch for the common good. Taxation, lack of liberty, less living standard and such is such a hard sale. And yet it is more a matter of how we do it, who does it, and how we define our “bragging rights”. It can be much less – not owning a Tesla, two homes . It’s a psychological thing.

    3. Looks like Mazda is ahead of your thinking Hickory

      “The 2022 Mazda MX-30 EV—the first step toward the brand’s commitment to electrification—will initially launch in California dealerships this fall with a starting price of $33,470.

      The front-wheel drive 80.9 kW electric motor will deliver an output of 107 kW (143 horsepower) and a maximum torque of 271 nm (200 lb-ft). The MX-30 EV is equipped with a 35.5 kWh lithium-ion battery that supports an EPA-estimated range of 100 miles on a full charge.”

      https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/08/20210824-mazda.html

      1. Yeh, and not my idea at all. I was just pointing out what is in the process of becoming more common in the world- and here in the USA for those who will still want some affordable transport once easy oil is in the rear-view mirror.

        And speaking of smaller motors- I love my electric bike. I can roll over hills like I was still 22 yrs old with a thicker braid going my back than I now sport.

        1. HB – the Mazda MX-30 is a compliance car. 100 miles of range at $33K is a joke in 2021. It would have been a good competitor to the Leaf in say 2014-15. This is symptomatic of the entire Japanese auto industry’s massive missteps in not adopting EVs earlier. Toyota, Honda and Mazda are about to get their asses handed to them by the Chinese, probably never to recover. Available in Asia today: 200 miles range at $15K…

          https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/26/smaller-cheaper-electric-suvs-coming-from-hyundai-kia-volkswagen-and/

          1. Hold on for a second. A 200 mile EV is available in Asia today for $15k? And only a couple of days ago I was ridiculed for suggesting that a 200 mile EV will be available for $10k in 2030. Looks like I was too conservative. LOL.

          2. Stephen, I agree with you. 100 mile range isn’t going to be acceptable for most. The VW id4 is about the same price with about 2 1/2 times better distance. Personally I would want and pay for 300 miles plus being a single vehicle household. Also, I would want it to be able to bring home a sheet of plywood without putting it on the roof.

            Hickory, I’m still old school riding a fully human powered road bike. Not as transportation, but for recreation and exercise. The best way I know of to appreciate and understand the energy needed to offset wind resistance.

            1. HB- I’m older than you and have big hills around. My ebike setup still gives me lots of exercise (as much as I choose), and gets me to market or deep forest depending on my goal for the trip.
              If it was relatively flat around here I would forgo the electric assist.
              I can ride up a gravel path about a mile from here and see 117 miles from snow covered peak to peak on a clear day.
              It is certainly a form of mobility empowerment.

  8. From one of my favorite magazines – The Atlantic (JULY 23, 2021)

    VACCINATED AMERICA HAS HAD ENOUGH

    In the US, this pandemic could’ve been over by now, and certainly would’ve been by Labor Day. If the pace of vaccination through the summer had been anything like the pace in April and May, the country would be nearing herd immunity. With most adults immunized, new and more infectious coronavirus variants would have nowhere to spread. Life could return nearly to normal. Experts list many reasons for the vaccine slump, but one big reason stands out: vaccine resistance among conservative, evangelical, and rural Americans. Pro-Trump America has decided that vaccine refusal is a statement of identity and a test of loyalty. Reading about the fates of people who refused the vaccine is sorrowful. But as summer camp and travel plans are disrupted — as local authorities reimpose mask mandates that could have been laid aside forever — many in the vaccinated majority must be thinking: Yes, I’m sorry that so many of the unvaccinated are suffering the consequences of their bad decisions. I’m also very sorry that the responsible rest of us are suffering the consequences of their bad decisions.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/vaccinated-america-breaking-point-anti-vaxxers/619539/

    1. We’re at the frustration point in our house, carrying the unvaccinated on our shoulders. With the interior still on fire the 20 somethings have now hit the coast for summer festivities. And where I live the place is small enough where we actually know some anti vaxxers. We will never ever deal with them again. Recently, my wife has resigned from our local garden club as treasurer because another board member has refused the vaccine. It has created a rift in the sense that many are now refusing to pander to these ridiculous people and their screwy ideas.

      Our concern is for the kids under 12, and those with compromised immune systems who cannot get vaccinated. This includes all kind of folks required to take steroids, etc.

      The good thing is starting Sept 13th, those who are not vaccinated will not be allowed to dine out or go to many public activities in BC.

    2. “but one big reason stands out: vaccine resistance among conservative, evangelical, and rural Americans. Pro-Trump America has decided that vaccine refusal is a statement of identity and a test of loyalty”

      Yes. That tribe is the big issue.
      And a second one is the scientifically illiterate, professional conspiracy theorists, and self-deluded population who have trouble seeing the world clearly.
      There is considerably overlap among these ‘tribes’, but not entirely.

      I am ok with people refusing vaccination, if they are then prevented from appearing in any public places (including hospitals). But in the absence of a strong mechanism to exclude them from public, then vaccination should be mandatory and enforced.

      1. Also the far left crowd, many folks I know refuse the vaccine, not just Trumpers, to be fair.

        1. Yes Stephen- that is part of what I mentioned among the- ” the scientifically illiterate, professional conspiracy theorists, and self-deluded population”. Includes left and right, and anarchists and Q among them.

        2. What’s ‘far left crowd’ in your mind- voted for Biden? Lol
          or are you talking about members of the PNW Youth Liberation Front and the John Brown Gun Club types refusing the vax?
          The Far Left GTFO LOL

      2. if they are then prevented from appearing in any public places (including hospitals)

        My thoughts exactly.

  9. There’s a very real possibility that it simply won’t be possible to build electric cars and light trucks by the tens of millions every year, due to limited supplies of the materials needed for the batteries. I can’t say a whole lot about that either way. I’m not a geologist, lol, nor a mining engineer, lol.

    BUT I can say, as a long term observer of the human scene, that we will do whatever we can to solve the problem, so long as the solution is less painful than the disease………. and a lack of personal transportation in a country such as the USA is a DAMNED painful disease.

    To make a long story short, I’m personally convinced that if we can’t have a hundred million long range electric cars, we will settle for a hundred million micro mini electric cars with ranges as short as forty or fifty miles.

    That’s enough to get a salary man from his mcmansion to work ‘and home again in the vast majority of cases, and it’s probably possible right now today to build five or six such cars using the materials needed the battery in only ONE electric pickup truck or full size suv.

    Will people buy and drive them? They sure as hell will, if that’s all that’s available.

    I don’t know a soul who lives out in the ‘burbs or country side who would give up his mcmansion or tumble down shack, as the case may be, to move to NON EXISTENT housing in the city near his job.

    1. Its refreshing when someone speaks with common sense.
      “Will people buy and drive them? They sure as hell will, if that’s all that’s available.”
      In addition to “all that’s available’, I’ll ad ‘all that can being afforded’, and the realization that it may be ‘all they need’.

      For a person who is interested in innovation in the electric small vehicle field- from bikes on up to small cargo vehicles, it is an incredible time to witness. Things that people could only dream of since the 1880’s on up to about 2010 are now wholly possible, and are being created, built and funded.
      Its a global engineering party, and the barrier to entry is not insurmountable, especially for those who are not attempting vehicles with highway speed and long range capability.
      The energy required/mile for these vehicles is much lower than has been previously possible.
      And you can generate that energy yourself.

      Here is an example of an Italian company’s offerings- It is interesting to see the various configurations of the vehicles they offer-
      https://www.alke.com/alke-company-profile

    2. CATL is helping here – no more raw material restrictions for batteries, at least for low – mid scale electric cars / local busses.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/catls-new-sodium-ion-battery-help-ease-lithium-shortages-2021-08-03/

      Sodium, carbon and aluminium – they even phased out the copper interconnections. They are ramping up a supply chain now.

      The other thing ready for now are the LiFePOs – only rare element here is Lithium. But nickel / cobalt is no problem here. They are produced in big numbers already. They are good(and cheap) for cars up to 50 Kwh.

  11. On wind (not the hurricane or firestorm type)-

    “WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released three reports showing record growth in land-based wind energy, significant expansion of the pipeline for offshore wind projects, and continued decline in the cost of wind energy generation — laying the groundwork for significant future gains…
    More wind energy was installed in 2020 than any other energy source, accounting for 42% of new U.S. capacity. The U.S. wind industry supports 116,800 jobs.”

    Three DOE reports linked here (at the bottom)
    https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/30/doe-releases-new-reports-highlighting-record-growth-declining-costs-of-wind-power/

  12. Eulen or any one based in Germany . What is the mood for the forthcoming elections .?

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