June Non-OPEC & World Oil Production

By Ovi

The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to June 2024. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World Oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook. 

World oil production decreased by 299 kb/d in June to 81,105 kb/d, green graph. The largest decreases came from Saudi Arabai 350 kb/d and Russia 142 kb/d. July’s World oil production is projected to increase by 665 kb/d to 81,770 kb/d.

This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2025. It uses the October 2024 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. The red graph forecasts World oil (C + C) production out to December 2025 using the STEO’s October crude oil report.

For December 2025, production is expected to be 84,634 kb/d. It is preceded by a November 2025 peak of 84,723 kb/d. The November 2025 oil production projection is 513 kb/d lower than estimated in the previous post.

From July 2024 to December 2025, World oil production is estimated to increase by 2,864 kb/d.

A note of caution. The October STEO is now reporting/forecasting only Crude oil production which is also shown in the chart. As a result the red C+C graph is a projection based on the crude production graph.

Over the past 10 months, it was noted that the ratio (C + C)/C was changing MoM, possibly due to the EIA’s new crude reporting format. As a result the six month average ratio of (C + C)/C was used to make the December 2025 projection. Over the last 10 months that ratio has now settled down to slightly above 1.07 with only a small variation. As such the six month ratio will continue to be used going forward to continue to check for possible seasonal variations and/or increases in condensate from Iran.

World June oil output without US decreased by 340 kb/d to 67,875 kb/d. July production is expected to rise by 691 kb/d to 68,566 kb/d.

Note that December 2025 output of 70,923 kb/d is 1,759 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak of 72,682 kb/d.

World oil production W/O the U.S. from July 2024 to December 2025 is forecast to increase by a total of 2,357 kb/d.

A Different Perspective on World Oil Production

Peak production in the Big 3 occurred in April 2020 at a rate of 34,739 kb/d. The peak was associated with a large production increase from Saudi Arabia. Post covid, production peaked at 34,010 kb/d in September 2022. The production drop since then is primarily due to cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and cutbacks/decline by Russia.

June’s Big 3 oil production decreased by 467 kb/d to 31,898 kb/d. June’s production is 2,112 kb/d lower than the September 2022 post pandemic high of 34,010 kb/d. The countries with the biggest drops were Saudi Arabia and Russia, see Table below.

Adding in the current Saudi Arabia 1,000 kb/d cut would raise production to 32,898 kb/d, just 1,112 kb/d lower than September 2022 production. Saudi Arabia along with other countries which were scheduled to reverse their cuts in October 2024 have now delayed them to December 2024 because of lower Chinese/World demand.

Production in the Remaining Countries had been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,930 kb/d. Output in December 2023 reached 50,513 kb/d, a new post covid high. However production began to fall in January 2024. June’s production increased by 167 kb/d to 49,206 kb/d. Of the 167 kb/d increase, Canada contributed 194 kb/d. The overall drop from December 2023 to June 2024 is 1,307 kb/d.

Countries Ranked by Oil Production

Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In June 2024, these 13 countries produced 78.9% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production decreased by 176 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis, production dropped by 677 kb/d. Note the large MoM and YoY production drop in Saudi Arabia and the YoY increase for Iran.

June Non-OPEC Country Oil Production Charts

June Non-OPEC oil production increased by 106 kb/d to 52,549 kb/d. The largest increases came from Canada and Brazil while Russia offset those gains. Note that Non-OPEC production now includes Angola.

Using data from the October 2024 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period July 2024 to December 2025. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 55,105 kb/d in December 2025, which is 1,137 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 53,968 kb/d.

From December 2023 to December 2025, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 819 kb/d.

June Non-OPEC W/O US production rose by 65 kb/d to 39,319 kb/d. July’s production is projected to rise by 98 kb/d to 39,417 kb/d.

From July 2024 to December 2025, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 1,977 kb/d. December 2025 production is projected to be 228 kb/d higher than December 2019.

Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production

Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The criteria for inclusion in the table is that all of the countries produce more than 1,000 kb/d. Note that Angola has been added to this table.

June’s production increased by 302 kb/d to 44,169 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a monthly production increase of 106 kb/d to 52,549 kb/d.

In June 2024, these 11 countries produced 84.1% of all Non-OPEC oil production. 

Angola has been added to the Non-OPEC producing countries since they withdrew from OPEC.

Angola’s June production increased by 60 kb/d to 1,175 kb/d. Angola’s production since early 2022 appears to have settled into a plateau phase between 1,100 kb/d and 1,200 kb/d.

The EIA reported that Brazil’s June production rose by 91 kb/d to 3,409 kb/d.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production decreased in July by 179 kb/d but rebounded in August to 3,340 kb/d. The BNPA has started reporting Brazil’s pre-salt production again. The August pre-salt graph tracks the crude oil graph. For August, pre-salt production increased by 136 kb/d.

The drop in production from November 2023 up to April 2024 was primarily due to extensive maintenance and production is expected to recover to previous levels going forward. According to OPEC: “The Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras FPSO unit, Maria Quiteria, is expected to start production in 4Q24 – earlier than previously expected – following its deployment at the Parque das Baleias integrated project.

Production after August has to increase by 338 kb/d to exceed the November 2023 high.

Canada’s production increased by 194 kb/d in June to 4,666 kb/d. The increase is primarily due to the return to operations of facilities shut down for maintenance.

The EIA reported China’s June oil output decreased by 24 kb/d to 4,250 kb/d.

The China National Bureau of Statistics reported production for July and August. July dropped 35 kb/d to 4,215 kb/d and August dropped by 16 to 4,199 kb/d.

According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s oil output increased by 48 kb/d in June to 1,787 kb/d. Kazakhstan’s recent crude oil production, as reported by Argus, has been added to the chart. In September crude production rose by 40 kb/d to 1,480 kb/d.

Since January, Kazakhstan crude production has dropped by 130 kb/d to 1,480 kb/d. Their OPEC production target is 1,470 kb/d. At 1,480 kb/d, Kazakhstan is essentially on target.

According to the EIA, Mexico’s June output increased by 20 kb/d to 1,852 kb/d.

For June, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.

In earlier reports, the EIA would add close to 55 kb/d to the Pemex report. The gap between the EIA report and Pemex on average has been close to 55 kb/d over the last 6 months. Condensate of 55 kb/d has been added to the Pemex report to estimate Mexico’s August production of C + C 1,825 kb/d, red markers.

The EIA reported Norway’s June production increased by 20 kb/d to 1,738 kb/d.

Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that July’s production increased by 112 kb/d to 1,850 kb/d and August dropped by 66 kb/d to 1,784 kb/d, red markers.

The Norway Petroleum Directorship stated that August’s production is 7.5% more than forecast and 3.3% more than the forecast so far this year.

Oman’s production had risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, June’s output dropped by 1 kb/d to 991 kb/d.

Oman produces a lot of condensate. The OPEC MOMR reports that crude production in June was 766 kb/d, 225 kb/d lower than the EIA’s C + C.

The EIA has been reporting flat output of 1,322 kb/d for Qatar since early 2022. However the current June update has revised down all of that production data. Qatar’s June output was reported again to be 1,322 kb/d.

The EIA reported Russia’s June’s C + C production dropped by 142 kb/d to 9,764 kb/d.

Using data from Argus Media reports, Russian crude production is shown from May 2023 to September 2024. For September 2024, Argus reported Russian crude production was 8,970 kb/d, a decrease of 10 kb/d from August, blue markers. Adding 8% to Argus’ September crude production provides a C + C production estimate of 9,688 kb/d for Russia, which is a proxy for the Pre-War Russian Ministry estimate, red markers.

According to Argus, Russian crude production of 8,970 kb/d is in compliance with their OPEC target of 8,980 kb/d.

In pre-war times, the Russia Energy Ministry production estimate used to be 400 kb/d higher than the EIA estimate. For June, the Argus proxy estimate is just 46 kb/d higher.

Can we believe the Russian production numbers? What are their sources of information?

According to this Article Russian September production was “8.97 million barrels a day last month, the people said on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public. That’s down about 13,000 barrels a day down from the August level.”

The last two paragraphs, shown below, provide some insight on why it may be necessary to take the Russian information with a grain of salt. Since the data is classified, are these official sources providing information with the approval of higher ups that is designed to put Russian oil production in a more favourable light

“Russia has classified official output data amid Western sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving oil market watchers with just a few gauges, such as seaborne oil exports and domestic refinery runs, to follow trends in the industry.

Earlier this year, Moscow also changed the way it reports data used to compile OPEC+ production estimates, making an independent assessment of its compliance with output cuts more difficult. The Energy Ministry now reports the data in barrels per day and appears to be using a ton-to-barrel ratio at the lower end of the traditional conversion factors used by analysts for Russia’s crudes.“

Comparison chart from the latest US post to compare with the latest EIA/STEO projection

The October EIA/STEO has made a significant change from its previous forecast to US oil production going forward. Compare the two production charts above. The EIA is now predicting flat US oil production from November 2024 to October 2025. This is a significant reduction from earlier forecasts of around 300 kb/d.

From August 2024 to December 2024 oil production is estimated to increase by 277 kb/d. Production growth slows after November 2024.