Electric Commercial Vehicles, a ten year update – Part 2

193 thoughts to “Electric Commercial Vehicles, a ten year update – Part 2”

1. it seems even the humble milk float of Britain is being replaced by the Street scooter ……

   https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/features/behind-wheel-dhls-new-electric-milk-float

   Anyone who remembers the old style will appreciate the better looking version , something that British manufacturers seem to forget ( the ones we have left that is ) .

   Forbin

   1. Definite improvement, see my link in the last chapter.

      NAOM

2. on the issues of generation of electricity do we know the plans that China has to replace 1000GW coal fired power stations ? I believe their coal board was angling to increase generation by 300GW.

   Seems pointless that the electricity to run these things will be from coal – yes I do know they are building out nuclear , hydro and renewables . They have a thirst for energy in their plans to become a Global super power.

   Thanks

   Forbin

   1. The people running China have to keep things running on a day to day basis.Otherwise the future, so far as they are concerned, is only an academic question.

      They are compelled to rely on coal for electricity, for now and for some years to come, but they ARE pedal to the metal on wind and solar power, and electric vehicles of all sorts as well.

      Even without considering the environmental aspects of the overall problem, China is doing exactly the right thing, from the Chinese pov, in supporting both coal and electric vehicles.

      Coal is plentiful, and cheap. Oil is scarce, and increasingly expensive, and within a few more years, China may be unable to afford imported oil, EVEN IF oil is available in adequate quantities TO BE IMPORTED.

      The more ev’s they put on the road, the LESS coal and oil, in combination, they will have to use. EV’s are going to be the ANSWER to sopping up any surplus wind and solar juice in proportion to the number of ev’s in need of charging, meaning that juice will no longer BE surplus, and subject to curtailment.

      Plus you can bet your chopsticks that the Chinese will be at the forefront of vehicle to grid technology once they have enough ev’s in service to justify the investment in the necessary infrastructure. That will mean they can make even more efficient use of their wind and solar farms…

      Hence Chinese reliance on coal is justified from their pov as both an economic and national security issue.

      1. Not all the Chinese build out is for new generation, much is to replace old, highly inefficient, plant with efficient, modern plant that will also be cleaner. Not ideal but is one step.

         NAOM

   2. I believe their coal board was angling to increase generation by 300GW.

      That is correct. However what the coal board angles for, is not necessarily what the government actually allows or implements or even necessarily how they implement their long term plans.

      https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/03/28/china-new-coal-plants-2030-climate/

      China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030
      Under the proposal, the country could add a large coal power plant every 2 weeks for the next 12 years

      My hunch is that the as the realities of climate change become ever more apparent and the costs of renewable technologies continue to plummet, the Chinese government may significantly revise downward the number of future coal powered plants that it allows to be built after 2020. But read the article at the link I post above and draw your own conclusions. As I read it, even in China, coal will die a much quicker death than what most seem to think.

      Just look at what the Chinese government has done with changing out their urban bus fleets from diesel to all electric. That too happened much faster than anyone could possibly have predicted.

      Warning to coal industry: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”
      Cheers!

      1. Sure, the IPCC said we have to cut our fossil fuel emissions in half by 2030. That should be interpreted by anyone with a functioning brain as, we should be at zero already.

         However, the reality is there is still a long way to go. Even if getting there does not do much.
         Explaining the increase in coal consumption worldwide
         Worldwide, coal consumption for electricity generation is almost growing at the same rate as the electricity consumption (2.8% per year versus 3% per year between 2000 and 2017). As a result, the share of coal in the power mix has almost remained steady for the past 20 years around 40%. Even if it has only decreased by two points since 2010 (see Figure below), coal is still the most widely used energy source for electricity generation in the world.

         Closer up, we see opposing trends in the world’s largest economies: the efforts and announcements of the majority of countries that are phasing out the use of coal to produce electricity are being undermined by a number of countries that are increasing the share of coal in their power mix.

         This is the case particularly for major coal-producing countries such as Indonesia (58% of electricity produced from coal, 18 percentage points increase from 2010 to 2017), Turkey (33%, +7 points) and India (75%, +7 points, as shown in Figure 1, above). India is the second largest coal producer in the world after China with significant coal reserves. The development of renewables and the commissioning of more efficient coal-fired power plants in India are not sufficient to absorb the growth in electricity demand, which has averaged 7% per year since 2005.
         

         https://theconversation.com/explaining-the-increase-in-coal-consumption-worldwide-111045

         Peak coal was predicted to have happened in the US, but really what happened was rising natural gas and now more coal is being exported.
         For some strange reason it doesn’t seem to matter much where the coal is burned as far as global warming goes.

         As many of the comments on this site indicate, most people are not that interested in stopping fossil fuel burn. Soon they will realize it will do little to stop global warming anyway and then who knows what will happen to the Green Movement, the renewable manufacturers and the whole world. EV sales could plummet.
         But that is a few years from now and will take a few years to for renewable energy to lose traction (not that it has much now). Luckily there are a lot of other good reasons to get off of fossil fuels so the transistion might proceed (slowly) until the ecosystems collapse and the food goes dead in the fields.

         1. Yep, at the end of the day what will matter is the viability of the ecosystems the economy not so much. So, as Donella Meadows intimated in her ‘Leverage Points’, the focus absolutely should be on economic growth, but not in the direction that most are trying to push it. We need to find a path towards a steady state economy regardless of the color we wish to paint it.

            GREEN is such a boring color… and I tend to associate it with SOYLENT!
            .

            

            1. As I look out the window all the plants have sprouted their green leaves. The bright light green shades will slowly darken with time, but now they are dazzling. Sometimes it’s in the subtleties.

               The economy has little to do with it anymore. Nature has taken over and we are now second string headed for the minor leagues. I won’t bore anyone with the details. I am sure it will become well known and accepted knowledge over the next decade.

               Or for those who are a bit slow and economics minded. Nature has a hand deep in your wallet now and every time you burn FF or screw up in other ways, more of it gets taken, again and again. Until it is all gone. All gone, done, bankrupt, skint, flat broke.
               How do you pay Nature when the Bill comes due? Nature does not take money.

               1. >As I look out the window all the plants have sprouted their green leaves.

                  They only look green to us because those wavelengths in the green part of the spectrum are mostly useless to the plants and they discard them… 😉

                  Ok, just for the record, for those that don’t recognize it, this is supposed to be sarcasm, and I agree with GF’s point.
                  I actually do like GREEN plants, it’s one of the reasons I live in Florida.

               2. Yes, we are easily fooled. Spectra show that 62% of green light is absorbed by leaves on average in this study. They appear green because more red and blue light is absorbed than green.
                  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC540339/?page=6

                  As far as chlorophyll A and B is concerned, green light is a definite go (away). http://www.webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/7A.html

               3. Along with 17-foot pythons, copperheads, coral snakes, cottonmouths, rattlers…

                  (I like snakes.)

               4. I always found ways to live in harmony with snakes.
                  It always pissed me off when idiots, including members of my own extended family would kill them for no good reason. Admittedly I have eaten a few upon occasion and invasive pythons need to be culled but other than that, they tend not to bother anyone and they do their part to keep the rodent population in check.

               5. E FredM,

                  When I was a kid I’d camp in the Mojave and not worry about the rattlers, just keep my boots wrapped up for a pillow at night. In the morning, of course, I’d check them anyway.

                  My only worry out there was scorpions. They’re everywhere, and nocturnal, and I figure I’ve had whole squadrons of them walk over me while I was asleep. Never was stung.

                  Now I live west of the Cascades and there are no venomous snakes, so you can take my list as showing mild envy. East of the mountains there are rattlers but they’re small and mind their own business. At one archaeology project I worked on the ritual every morning upon arrival at the site was to remove, first, the tarp that covered the one-meter square hole at night, and, second, remove the rattler that had fallen in trying to reach the mouse that had fallen in. Rattlers sense infrared so the signal was “mouse” but the snake couldn’t get out again after its meal. They’d just toss the rattler out into the sagebrush where there were thousands of them already.

               6. Hi Fred,

                  Do you know how far the pythons might be able to live headed north? I’ve never spent much time there, but southern Georgia has very mild winters.

                  These snakes might adapt to denning up for the colder months, and even make it into the Carolinas, eventually.

                  In the meantime, it looks as if either the larger gators will eat the smaller snakes, or the larger snakes will eat the smaller gators, with one or the other predominating the environment eventually.

                  My guess is that the snakes will win out, since a snake can attack faster and more effectively from ambush, in my estimation. A little snake would probably have to come within a foot or two of a gator for the gator to have a good shot at capturing it, but the snake could strike out quite a bit farther.

                  In the meantime, I hear that the smaller mammals and some birds are in a world of hurt, just about wiped out in some areas by the pythons.

               7. These snakes might adapt to denning up for the colder months, and even make it into the Carolinas, eventually.

                  That’s already happening! While rare, we do occasionally get a hard freeze every once in a while in South Florida. Just ask the citrus farmers 😉

                  Apparently that already has acted as a natural selection pressure on the python population.

                  https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-ae-super-snakes-david-whitley-1026-story.html

                  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mec.14885

                  Abstract
                  Invasive species provide powerful in situ experimental systems for studying evolution in response to selective pressures in novel habitats. While research has shown that phenotypic evolution can occur rapidly in nature, few examples exist of genomewide adaptation on short “ecological” timescales. Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) have become a successful and impactful invasive species in Florida over the last 30 years despite major freeze events that caused high python mortality. We sampled Florida Burmese pythons before and after a major freeze event in 2010 and found evidence for directional selection in genomic regions enriched for genes associated with thermosensation, behaviour and physiology. Several of these genes are linked to regenerative organ growth, an adaptive response that modulates organ size and function with feeding and fasting in pythons. Independent histological and functional genomic data sets provide additional layers of support for a contemporary shift in invasive Burmese python physiology. In the Florida population, a shift towards maintaining an active digestive system may be driven by the fitness benefits of maintaining higher metabolic rates and body temperature during freeze events. Our results suggest that a synergistic interaction between ecological and climatic selection pressures has driven adaptation in Florida Burmese pythons, demonstrating the often‐overlooked potential of rapid adaptation to influence the success of invasive species.

                  Not to mention that as the climate warms these snakes will be quite happy to move a little further north!
                  Cheers!

               8. @OFM
                  Someone recently found a Boa in their UK garden. There are pictures online of a duel to the double death of a python and gator.

                  NAOM

               9. (I like snakes.)” ~ Synapsid

                  And port. ‘u^

                  And more port…

                  And yet more port…

               10. Caelan,

                   Yes! And with enough Port you can begin to SEE snakes!

               11. Is ‘enough’ ever enough though?

                   Anyway, red against black is a friend of Jack; red against yellow will kill a fellow. Unsure that’s necessarily true, but it’s fun to say.

               12. Caelan,

                   The saying is accurate for coral snakes in the US, probably for North America in general, and also Central and South but there I’m not sure.

                   But coral snakes, the scamps, are all over the Old World too and some of them have no colored rings at all. The thing to go by, I guess, is the color of the nose. If that’s black, you’re facing a neurotoxin dispenser and it’s best to go the other way.

                   There was an archaeologist at the University of Washington who had a withered arm from having been bitten while in the field when he was a grad student. Scary.

               13. @Synapsid
                   One of the non-venomous ones was recently found on a bus in Scotland. Fortunately someone recognised what it was so it did not end up pulped and it was returned to its owner whose bag it had escaped from.

                   NAOM

               14. notanoilman,

                   I saw that too, on BBC online. It was a corn snake, a pretty one; they have the red and the yellow but not the black our spiffy coral snakes have.

                   I was impressed by the sensible and moderate response of the people around when the snake was spotted.

               15. Interesting stuff, guys, thanks.

               16. Used to have milk snakes around here.

3. At the tail end of the first installment, I posted a link about Ford putting five hundred million into Rivian. GM apparently lost out by asking for too much control.

   Rivian seems to have made the grade from vaporware to hardware, and no mistake about it.

   Tesla is going to have some REAL competition before too much longer, and Rivian is likely to be the biggest source of it, at least in terms of companies located in Western countries.

   The management at some giant corporations no doubt has a head in the sand attitude about change, but with the exception of Chrysler, it appears that the auto industry is run by people who are at least READING the reports put on their desks by the research staffs they pay to keep them up to date, and nearly all of them seem to be paying close attention.

   Lots of us like to laugh about corporate management, but in reality, the people at the top have a very powerful incentive to STAY ahead of the technology curve……. their salary and stock option package, lol.

   Miss the boat, and you are out on your ass sometime not too far down the road.

   1. However, it still isn’t clear how Rivian (or Ford) will source their batteries. Even the wildest predictions of growth in battery production I’ve seen aren’t enough to make a serious dent in the car market and the grid storage market for some time.

      1. Yep–
         Early 1990’s lithium ion———
         It has been a while.

         1. Well, those batteries have changed somewhat since then and new generations are in the pipeline. They are a big step up on the lead acid type. If it works…
            The wheel since something BCE
            Steam pumps since around 1700
            AC electricity since 1886

            NAOM

            1. Agree, they have been made “better”.
               But it is the same- just better technology.
               As pointed out– it has been a while.
               (seems to be the major roadblock)

               1. Basically it is about electrochemical efficiency and weight. Lithium is one of the most electronegative elements making it one of the best choices for energy storage. Admittedly there are elements that are more valent but have issues with their other properties. Sodium seems to be an emerging alternative but it ain’t had the 20+years of experience behind it. Magnesium is another possible but I haven’t heard much about that lately. I do expect to see some new ones over the next decade but Lithium still seems to be the best transport option for now with a potential for a 5-10x performance increase.

                  For stationary power I don’t think banks of little 18650 or 21070 is the way to go at all. Big chunky cells that can use different materials would be one eg liquid metal. However I think some sort of flow battery would be best. Need more hours, ship in some bigger tanks. Supercaps are another option but seem to be best suited to load leveling. Hydrogen, have we got enough precious metal for all the catalyst needed and if you think Lithium has a risk for going bang?

                  NAOM

               2. Oh, there have been a number of advanced battery chemistries made lately without lithium. Some going into commercial applications now.
                  When the time comes they will flood the market. Right now most everything is set up to make and use Li-ion.

               3. Basically it is about electrochemical efficiency and weight. Lithium is one of the most electronegative elements making it one of the best choices for energy storage.

                  And it’s pretty darn light as well…

                  Symbol: Li
                  Atomic number: 3
                  Atomic mass: 6.941 u
                  Electrons per shell: 2,1
                  Electron configuration: [He] 2s1

                  Too bad for the US that they are on the weaker side should they decide to enter into a trade war with China over the Lithium, since China pretty much already controls the global supply chain.

                  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256684-lithium-miners-news-month-april-2019

                  The big news for the month was Volkswagen securing a 10-year lithium supply deal from China’s Ganfeng, and CATL forecasting a 140%-170% year-on-year growth for Q1 net profit. Meanwhile the US government plan to meet in May to “discuss” the EV metals supply chain, and China’s Ganfeng Lithium “invests” US$160 million into Lithium Americas’ Caucharí-Olaroz lithium project.

                  My recent Trend Investing article “EV Metals Demand – The Calm Before The Storm” discusses some of the implications if EV demand surprises to the upside. For example, recently CNBC reported that JPMorgan forecasts “electric cars would take 35 percent of the global market by 2025 and 48 percent by 2030.” Auto Trader UK reported recently a recent British survey where 71% of British car buyers said they are considering an electric car as their next vehicle.

                  Gee, I wonder what the chances are of EV demand surprises to the upside?!

                  Nah! much better to bet on Canadian Tar Sands and American Shale. That’s where the smart money is going!
                  EVs? Never happen. Can you imagine anything more ridiculous than self driving electric trucks?!

                  Cheers!

               4. I don’t think lithium is the issue in battery shortages. Despite the name, lithium ion batteries don’t contain much lithium anyway — I think Tesla uses about 0.7 gm/Wh.

                  Building battery factories is expensive and risky. You need a clean room to make the cells. You even need a slightly less clean room to build the clean room. You need a lot of skilled labor who are used to this kind of work environment to staff it.

                  Some are predicting 1.1 TWh annual production by 2028, up from 220MWh in 2018. That’s a nearly 20% annual growth rate, so it’s a tall order.

                  But if a modern car needs a 50KWh battery then a million need 50 GWh. So at the predicted growth rate, only about 22m cars could be built per year in 2028. Total demand for new cars could be above 100m or more by then, and that doesn’t include trucks, buses etc, or grid batteries.

                  Putting these numbers together, you need 770 billion grams (770 thousand tons) a year of lithium to produce 1.1 TWh (1.1 trillion Wh) of batteries in 2028. This is roughly one ten thousandth of annual coal consumption today — about 8 bn tons, if I read Dr. Minqi Li’s charts correctly. The claim that this is impossible or too environmentally damaging seems implausible.

                  So the real problem is just building enough factories. But I expect the market to grow exponentially, as know how spreads.

               5. There will be new battery technologies coming on line that do not use lithium or rare metals.
                  Also the technology exists now to produce cars that run in their own solar footprint, decreasing battery sixe needed for everyday transport.
                  Cars as a service will reduce the total number of cars sold, thus decreasing the number of batteries that need to be built.
                  Recycling of battery materials is improving and will probably become standard in the future, reducing the amount of mining required.

                  Improvement in battery technology and car manufacturing technology will also reduce battery material demand.

                  All in all, there are few real constraints on EVs other than initial cost, which should keep descending.
                  Most questions will be answered fully by 2025.

                  The big question is will we even need cars after 2040?

               6. When one gets 10% of market share, we can take note.

               7. Carmakers are seriously worried about car sharing, which could start shrinking the fleet by the mid 20s. Densely populated Asian cities with no car culture aren’t the growth market they were dreaming of.

                  Cars may change too. They have been getting steadily heavier since the 60s with no tangible benefits to the users. The vehicles have gotten better, but the added weight hasn’t helped.

                  EVs are already lighter, and weight will continue to fall as long overdue investments in weight-saving materials and designs ramp up. So the key advantage of oil — energy density — has been squandered on poor vehicle design, making life much easier for alternate fuel vehicle designers.

                  Elon Musk recently tweeted that Tesla will have a car with over 1000 km range. Of course it’s just a two-seater with a giant battery, but it tells a nice story about how far current car designs are from any theoretical optimum. I’m sure he chuckled as he tweeted.

               8. alim..- “Cars may change too. They have been getting steadily heavier since the 60s with no tangible benefits to the users. The vehicles have gotten better, but the added weight hasn’t helped.”

                  There is one huge exception to what you said. And that is safety. I see people who have gone through triple rollover high speed accidents who survive, not uncommonly. In the past these were almost almost always fatal. Most of the measures taken to improve safety do add weight.

               9. Hickory,
                  The car industry has used the claim that heavy cars are safer to sell SUVs, but the claim is extremely doubtful. SUVs certainly are safer for pedestrians for one thing, and should probably be banned in cities. The industry likes big vehicles because the seem more “substantial”, so they can sell them at higher margins. That’s why they fill the media with bogus safety claims.
                  The big improvements in safety have come from things like seat belt laws, airbags, crumple zones and detailed safety testing. Improved street design would be the next big step for America.
                  Aside from that, serious investment in new designs and materials could easily have improved vehicle stiffness without adding weight.

               10. In a collision, relative mass matters. The damage to each vehicle (and the injuries to the occupants) is caused by the change in speed (delta V). The heavier vehicle will change velocity proportionately less, and the lighter vehicle will be pushed around.

                   This is a zero-sum game. The car industry promotes safety as a kind of arms race, but from a societal point of view it provides no benefits, and there are large harms to pedestrians and cyclists (especially flat faced SUVS, which are far more dangerous than sedans). Not to mention a significant waste of energy.

                   So…Public Policy ought to discourage heavy vehicles!

               11. First of all pedestrians and road traffic should never have to mix. That is a failing of design and a lack of concern for life and limb. We have 1800’s road design mostly being promoted right into the 21st century.
                   Second, cars, who drives them, how they are powered and where they can go will change over the next decade.
                   Third, everything will change dramatically in the third decade and further on into the future. Everything.
                   So don’t worry about the details, just do what is best now and what one thinks might be best to keep the web of life together on this planet.
                   Dump the pollution and get on with the real work of making the planet a decent place to live.

4. Anytime the conversation turns to personal finance and or national security around people who don’t believe in electric vehicles, or that protecting the environment is a literal life and death issue, etc, NEVER forget that there are ways to win such people over, or at least plant some seeds of wisdom between their ears that might eventually sprout into rational thoughts.

   Let them know, diplomatically, that every electric car on the road means one less car burning every other tank of IMPORTED oil, meaning we have to send that alternate tank’s worth of money to people who aren’t necessarily our friends, and who are in some cases our KNOWN enemies, from THEIR pov.

   Nor does it hurt to mention that an electric trash truck or bus won’t be waking them up just when they are finally getting off to sleep!

   Also, that the less oil ev owners use, the more gasoline and diesel for them, at a LOWER price. This will be an ever more important consideration as oil depletes and ev’s proliferate.

5. Tesla loss ~ $700 million USD first quarter.

   Tesla said a loss in its second quarter would be “significantly” less than the $US702 million lost in the first quarter. Profit would return in the third quarter, Tesla said.

   https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/it-s-probably-about-the-right-time-musk-says-tesla-might-be-looking-to-raise-money-after-1b-loss-20190425-p51h3x.html

   1. OMG!!

      https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/02/auto-sales-decline-march-first-quarter-2019/

      Auto sales in March and first quarter down nearly across the board

      Nearly every major automaker reported weak U.S. sales for March and the first quarter of 2019, citing a rough start to the year, but said a robust economy and strong labor market should encourage consumers to buy more vehicles as 2019 rolls on.

      GM, which no longer releases monthly sales figures, saw first-quarter sales fall 7 percent, with declines across all brands. Sales of Silverado pickup trucks fell nearly 16 percent and the high-margin Chevy Suburban large SUV dropped 25 percent.

      Ford also no longer releases monthly sales numbers, but is due to release its first-quarter sales figures on Thursday. According to industry data, Ford’s sales fell 2 percent in the quarter and 5 percent in March. Ford representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

      FCA reported a 7 percent fall in U.S. sales in March and a 3 percent drop for the first quarter. All of FCA’s brands dropped in March, except for Ram, which saw a 15 percent increase in pickup truck sales.

      And none of major automobile manufactures even have a space program…a grid energy battery storage business plan nor have they developed a super 144 TOPS chips for driverless AI vehicles, etc…/sarc

      1. It’s not just the US market either. The industry is getting hammered in every market worldwide except Brazil, for some reason.

         https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-january-february-international-worldwide-car-sales/

         The Chinese sales figures are particularly bleak: Down 17% from last year. But EV sales are booming.

         1. After that 9 day traffic jam I can see why Chinese car sales are down.

   2. I don’t think TSLA issues are an indictment against EV’s. I think there are company specific issues with regard to high management turnover and a CEO who cannot remain focused.

      EV appear to make a lot of sense for light travel for those who live in urban/suburban areas, which is a high percentage of the world population.

      Musk is creative no doubt and has pushed EV to the forefront. But he has a lot of issues too. I do not get the hero worship of him. I am concerned that USA is falling back into the trap of worshiping ideologues. The one at 1600 Penn being the most striking example.

      1. I think SS has basically nailed the most important market for electric cars for the next few years.

         Millions of people and businesses need a car every single day, but one that will go only fifty miles or so is actually adequate for most of them………. and a lot of these millions of people and businesses already own conventional cars.

         They can probably make out like bandits in terms of total ownership and operating costs with a work and chore car with a relatively tiny battery.

         I know a guy who cuts grass for a living, on a route, with his own equipment and customers. He’s smarter than most, because he concentrates ALL his efforts at getting new customers in the same immediate neighborhood, as opposed to all over town.

         Every time he gets another one close by, he culls the one the farthest away, with notice, or else raises his price five or ten bucks.

         The result is that after three or four years, he puts only about forty miles a day on his pickup truck and trailer hauling his mower. Some other guys doing the same work drive well over a hundred miles in a day, spending half or more of their time on the road, rather than actually cutting grass.

         People and businesses who need only short range cars and pickups will start buying them, maybe not right away, but within a few years, for sure.

         I personally know at least a couple of dozen people who put at around one hundred to two hundred miles per week on their cars and pickups commuting to work, all of them owners of at least two cars or trucks. When a comfortable electric car gets to be cheap enough, then they will get one to use as their commuter….. even if it has only fifty miles of range…… so long as the price is right.

         1. That is the genius of StreeScooter. They set out to develop a vehicle that could get the job done at a price similar to an ICE powered equivalent. The result was a vehicle with the the ability to carry a reasonable amount of parcel freight (650 kg.) while keeping up with city traffic (80 km/h) with a range of 50 to 80 km (30-50 miles) between charges.

            According to this October 2017 press release they leveraged the expertise they had gained from developing the StreetScooter to develop other affordable industry specific vehicles:

            Industry-specific solutions

            For its third-party sales, StreetScooter is dedicating more of its efforts to industry-specific solutions. The best example is the so-called “Bakery Vehicle One” (BV1), an electric 3.5 ton van that the company has developed together with bakery companies for bakeries and other trades. In response to a fruitless search for a cost-effective electric van for their own businesses, some 200 small businesses had formed an “e-van self-help group” and issued a call for tenders to find a suitable e-vehicle. StreetScooter and others participated. The result: Ten versions of the BV1 each with two battery sizes are now available for ordering. Chassis variants will be built by StreetScooter in partnership with the company TBZ Fahrzeugbau. Prices start at EUR42,950 (i.e. EUR38,950 once you deduct the EUR4,000 environmental bonus). StreetScooter has already received more than 100 advance orders.

      2. ” I do not get the hero worship of him. “

         I don’t know about other people but, I am a big fan of his approach to problem solving. He looks at a problem and breaks it down to components. He then figures out what needs to be done to deal with a particular component to change the outcome and looks for solutions to eliminate the problem with the component and systematically addresses it. He never says never but rather, assigns a degree of difficulty to each solution. I have been following his progress for at least ten years now and think it is unwise to bet against him when it comes to technology.

         I remember him being questioned about SpaceX not being able to successfully land and recover the first stage rocket after the first couple of launches. His response was basically that, it was very disappointing to experience a failure but, that something very important was learned by analyzing each failure. Eventually they nailed it and now a crash on landing of a SpaceX first stage has become a rarity. He is irrepressible that way.

   3. Broken Economies, Technologies and Supply-Chains

      Indications appear that we may be just entering another ‘economic downturn’, as if we ever got out of the last one.

      As that happens, many bets may be off or on lengthy hold, including not just Tesla, electric cars and cars in general, but non-renewable renewables.

      If or when the so-called economy breaks permanently, many people with a certain presence-of-mind may be thanking their lucky stars and patting themselves on their backs that they focused on their live’s basic necessities, rather than relatively dead-end sort of BAU junk like solar panels and electric vehicles, which, for example, they can’t eat, or even repair if an industrial manufactured part is needed and the breaking economy’s non-antifragile just-in-time supply-chains break. (Then, see what happens when you try ordering your parts.)

6. Islandboy, thanks for part 2 of your report, excellent job as usual.

   And to all the fools who want to build walls and engage in trade wars with China, etc…

   Unless Americans wake up they will be relegated to irrelevance while the rest of the world just shrugs and moves on. Someone needs to put this excerpt on millions of billboards all over the country!

   A September 19, 2018 article from Trucks.com titled, With Proterra Investment, Daimler Pushes Electric Bus Development stated,

   ”Proterra opened a factory in the City of Industry, just east of Los Angeles, last year. It said the plant would be capable of building 400 electric buses annually in its 100,000-square-foot space.”

   Again these numbers should be seen in the context of 1,900 electric buses a week being manufactured in China.

   Let me put that in bold:

   400 electric buses annually, vs. 1,900 electric buses a week!

   Who do you think is in a better position to win a trade war?! Good luck with that!

   1. Let’s keep in mind that most electric production is not from solar in China. With about 170 GW capacity it will be producing about 50 to 60 GW. Compared to the 670 GW production average, it’s only about 8 percent. So those buses run on coal.

      The business environment has changed for solar manufacturers in China.

      China announced last year that it would suspend new projects after a record 53 GW capacity increase in 2017 left it struggling to find spare grid capacity and pay a renewable subsidy backlog amounting to more than 140 billion yuan ($20.69 billion) last year.

      China is also aiming to gradually phase out direct financial support to the solar industry after a decline in costs, announcing last week that it would launch a series of new subsidy-free projects.
      
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solarpower/china-installed-18-percent-less-solar-power-capacity-in-2018-idUSKCN1PB09G

   2. Thanks for the complement! I’m hoping that somehow more people, including some western policymakers will get wind of some of what I have dredged up in this piece!

      Did you catch the comparison of the next two vehicles following the section you quoted? In case you didn’t, let me repeat for emphasis.

      The quoted article from the web site of Vado e Torno magazine (I’ll be right back) dated February 27, 2018 contained this:

      Daily Electric conquering Italy and Europe

      This delivery to Noval included, there are more than 150 pure electric vehicles sold since 2009, divided between MY09, 12, 14 and the new MY16 and exerted by the most important players in the sector of distribution and transportation of people. One example is Deutsche Post (Parcel Delivery – Germany) with 71 units and FCC (Garbage Collection – Spain) with 27 units. Other major customers are: Lyreco, Swedish Post, Austrian Post, Oslo Taxi Bus etc.

      The next excerpt presented is from truckinginfo.com, the web site of Heavy Duty Trucking Magazine, dated November 26, 2018 :

      FedEx Corp. is expanding its fleet to add 1,000 Chanje V8100 electric delivery vehicles, buying 100 from Chanje Energy and leasing 900 from Ryder System.

      The purpose-built electric vehicles will be operated by FedEx Express for commercial and residential pick-up and delivery services in California.

      The vehicles are manufactured by FDG in Hangzhou, China, and purchased through Chanje Energy Inc., the company’s subsidiary for global business. Ryder System, which will provide support services for all of the vehicles, called it the largest commercial electric vehicle purchase in the United States.

      On one hand, delivery on 150 vans over a period of nine years is described as “conquering Italy and Europe”, while on the other hand we have a single order for 1,000 being called “the largest commercial electric vehicle purchase in the United States”. Which one of these things is bigger?

      Maybe the “conquering Italy and Europe” thing just got screwed up in the translation from Italian to English. If anybody here understands the nuances of the Italian language, they can have a read of the original Italian language article and tell us if there is a more nuanced translation that paints a different picture. The URL is:

      https://vadoetornoweb.com/iveco-due-daily-electric-consegnati-a-sv-noleggio-veicoli-refrigerati/

      1. I read the article in Italian and it still sounded pretty lame to me.

         Anyways, I know it isn’t possible to keep up with everything that is happening all over the world, which is one of the reasons I come to this site where some of the important stuff is concentrated and filtered.

         I’m very intrigued by IKEA’s vision and how they plan to implement it.

         https://www.greenbiz.com/article/how-ikea-plans-deliver-its-goods-electric-trucks-and-vans

         How IKEA plans to deliver its goods via electric trucks and vans

         Last year, when then-California Gov. Jerry Brown brought the world’s climate leaders together in San Francisco for his Global Climate Action Summit, IKEA CEO Jesper Brodin took the opportunity to announce a bold transportation pledge. The Swedish retailer — well known for both its ready-to-assemble furniture and its aggressive environmental actions — committed to having electric vehicles deliver the last-mile portion of all of its product shipments to customers by 2025.

         To start working on that audacious goal, Inkga Group, the parent company of IKEA, said it plans to electrify its last-mile delivery in Shanghai, Paris, Los Angeles, New York and Amsterdam by 2020 — yes, next year.

         Think it sounds impossible? At the beginning of 2019, IKEA said it already had accomplished that goal early in Shanghai. Every IKEA delivery in Shanghai is being made in an electric vehicle.

         In a market where many large truck fleet owners are just starting to pilot electric vehicles, how was IKEA able to accomplish such a task and how will the company reach the rest of its last-mile EV goals?

         “Collaboration,” said IKEA’s head of sustainable mobility at Inkga Group, Angela Hultberg, in an interview. “I think collaboration is one of the biggest lessons learned. We can’t do this by ourselves, and this can’t happen in isolation.”

         IKEA doesn’t own its own fleet, and its products are delivered via roughly about 10,000 vehicles globally that are owned or operated by delivery partners such as DHL, UPS and PostNord (Swedish and Danish postal service). So basically, IKEA has to convince its fleet partners that electric last-mile delivery is the way to go.

         Let that last paragraph sink in for a minute!
         Cheers!

7. So how much will global warming reduce the heating bill.
   Let’s say 6000 HDD and a 6C rise in average winter temperature. That reduces it to about 4000 HDD.
   For the average house (about R8) that will save about 15 million BTU per heating season.
   Of course the cooling degree days will rise putting more pressure on the grid in the summer.

   Insulation works for both. 🙂

8. So how does insulation taste? 😉

   1. Better than Tesla chips.

      1. Fish with chips.

         1. .

            

9. The Oxymoron of Green/Clean Technology & Silver Bullets That Kill

   “Here’s a bit of advice. Before you propagate information that supposedly casts doubt on the green credentials of EVs, do an internet search on the title in quotation marks and look at the results.” ~ islandboy

   I have done and tend to do that kind of thing, and rather rigorously, but here’s the rub:

   As you advise me to do that, you offer up your narrow subject-matter EVs relatively-falsely as ‘green credentialed’, complete with your typical and misleading Koch brothers ‘rhetorical device’ (or whatever that might be called in propaganda parlance), and in the apparent relative absence of, say, natural, systemic and/or ethical contextual evaluations/considerations/etc..

   Tell you what: If or depending on how often I’m around, I’d consider ‘chasing article headers’ after you can show me evidence, ideally in your articles perhaps, that you’re functioning as devil’s advocate, or at least far more of one, and minus your Koch bothers ‘rhetorical device’, for what you’re huckstering. (Though, to be fair, I’m unsure I mind the public transit stuff as much, depending.)

   BTW, if recalled, you had previously mentioned hereon of being son of someone who escaped slavery…
   But industry relies heavily on slavery (wage slavery for example) and neofeudalism (commons land theft/despoilment) and I doubt that non-renewable renewable energy technology industries and the industries of what they might power are any exceptions. You might not think much of those two concepts, but that kind of ‘butterfly effect’ underpinning them can, and perhaps usually, provides the hurricanes that destroy communities, species and areas of the planet in general. That’s maybe in part why many more websites along POB’s lines are beginning to talk more about ethics. That’s also the sort of thing I’m talking about WRT you incorporating in your ‘glossy POB brochures’. But then, they wouldn’t be so ‘glossy’ anymore, would they.

   “I think that we should downsize and return to a non-technological society as quickly as possible.” ~ Niko McManus

   Yes I think we should bail, and fast, and take cues from how our ancestors used to live, with some mods.
   Learn how to do more of the basics for ourselves, rather than outsourcing this sort of empowerment to corporations and those working within them who can have very limited, blinkered and corrupt views and attitudes of natural and human systems and how what they do impacts them.

   Why a transition to clean energy alone is not enough for a sustainable future

   “A transition from fossil fuels to clean energy could be a major step in reducing our carbon dioxide emissions, but focusing on carbon emissions is only half the battle. The gains from such a transition can be seen as a temporary fix or even worse, a distraction from the real roots of the problem.

   Firstly, almost all clean energy technologies need rare earth minerals for production and storage. These rare earths are finite, and the shift towards clean energy is expected to drive tremendous growth in demand for those minerals, which in turn would trigger higher mining activity and depletion of those resources. [and increases in costs and prices]

   In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling — which despite the vast research effort on recycling accounted to less than 1% in 2011 — or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of rare earths, following a path consistent with stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 2600% for certain rare earth minerals over the next 25 years, if the present needs are representative of future needs, according to a study led by a team of researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.”

   Dirty Rare Metals: Digging Deeper into the Energy Transition

   “The extraction and refinement of rare metals causes immense environmental damage. To employ these metals in green and digital technologies, enormous quantities of rock must be extracted using huge amounts of acids. Purifying one tonne of rare-earth elements requires 200 cubic metres of water. In the process, this water is contaminated with heavy metals and ends up untreated in rivers, soils, and aquifers.

   The extraction of rare metals has become one of China’s most polluting industries. A world leader in their production, China’s approximately 10 000 mines scattered all over the country have helped ruin its environment. Contamination incidents have been numerous and serious. In 2006, 60 companies producing indium, a metal used in the manufacturing of solar panels, poured tonnes of chemicals into the river Xiang, polluting the supply of drinking water for local people. In the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, where most of the rare-earth elements needed for new technologies are extracted, mining areas have become hellish places. Close to the city of Baotou lies the Weikuang Dam, an 85-million cubic metre artificial lake filled with toxic waste from surrounding refineries…”

   ^^ And that’s just ‘today‘ (and in limited locales). What of tomorrow (and in more locales, with more people involved)?

   “Niko- and your alternative is? Your Plan B for the 7.7 Billion?” ~ Hickory

   But what’s (your, not some crony-capitalist plutarch’s) plan A? (An ass-backward plan is no plan.)

   Resilience, sustainability, simplicity, great basic skills you write?

   Then maybe you’ve just answered, or helped answer, your own question.

   1. First, let me address some history. Slavery was abolished in Jamaica on August 1, 1834 so for me to be a son of a slave, both my father and I would have to be well over a hundred years old! My father was from an area of the island that was inhabited by people who are called Maroons. According to this web page from the National Library of Jamaica web site, the leader of the Windward Maroon signed a treaty with the British on 23rd December 1739. It is more likely that my ancestors come from a group that occupied a region high in the mountains of the eastern end of the island that, signed the treaty a year later. So I am a descendant of escaped, rebel slaves, who were granted freedom and autonomy almost a hundred years before the abolition of slavery in Jamaica.

      You might find it interesting that a group of 600 Maroons from the Leeward Maroons (western) were deported from Jamaica following the second Maroon War in 1796 to Halifax, Nova Scotia, no less! More reading can be found by searching for “Maroons of Jamaica”.

      Having brought up my ancestry, I would like to point out that I do not share the ability to engage in conflict that my paternal ancestors needed to have in order to maintain their freedom. I am more inclined to be a pacifist and what scares me about your thoughts that, “we should bail, and fast, and take cues from how our ancestors used to live, with some mods”, is that pacifists in my corner of the world are most likely to starve to death. If we retreat to the hills and grow our own food, the hungry mobs will find us and reap what they did not sow. That is already a big problem on this island and things haven’t even got really bad yet! See:

      Farmers want an end to praedial larceny – Judges sensitised to ‘slap-on-the-wrist fines’ for agricultural thieves
      

      I was at a function where the lawyers at a local law firm in observance of Administrative Professionals Day held a treat for their administrative assistants, legal clerks and secretaries. I observed the liberal sprinkling of European SUVs in the firm’s car park and actually wondered how they would cope with Peak Oil and whether any of them had any inkling of such matters. These are relatively well off people I’m talking about, not the hordes of urban poor who rely on a steady stream of shipments of cheap carbohydrates and protein, produced by industrial scale farming and fishery operations, for sustenance.

      While I fully support powering down and a simplification of our civilisation, we have to get from here to there and with the current size of the global population one of the most urgent matters IMO is to stop increasing human numbers. I’m doing my bit by not procreating. Doubt I ever will. Does that make you any happier?

      1. Alan, I’m at a cafe and heading out, but for now…
         Good that your relatives escaped ‘classic’ slavery, even though slavery never really went away of course. Some of it just got whitewashed as ’employed’.
         Interesting about some escapees ending up here in NS. I know there are also some here from maybe the underground railway.
         We need to all escape slavery of course, even the mental kinds, such as of ideological indoctrination, and so forth.

         “I am more inclined to be a pacifist and what scares me about your thoughts that, ‘we should bail, and fast, and take cues from how our ancestors used to live, with some mods’, is that pacifists in my corner of the world are most likely to starve to death. If we retreat to the hills and grow our own food, the hungry mobs will find us and reap what they did not sow.” ~ islandboy

         ?
         Although I understand what you seem to be saying, but are you taking what I briefly wrote about that as a personal conviction of pacifism?
         I wouldn’t, and it’s much more complex an issue naturally.
         As for just that, though, see also what I wrote/quoted here.

         Bonne nuit.

         1. I had not read your rather lengthy post from April 10 and I think you have missed my point. It is just by chance that I happen to be descended from a group of people who had to defend their freedom by repelling armed incursions by military forces, which must have involved some amount of violence.

            The point I would like to make is that if “we should bail, and fast”, anarchy might be one outcome, with no widely accepted, fair means of maintaining some sort of order. I fear that taking “cues from how our ancestors used to live, with some mods”, might lead to a situation where those in society most willing to exert their wishes on others through the use of force, will only be restrained by equal opposing use of force. I am talking about potentially violent conflict over the allocation of scarce resources. The potential for violent conflict over inadequate resources is far higher now than at the time my ancestors signed the treaty with their adversaries, the world population now being roughly ten times larger.

            This concern is very real to me because of the situation that exists in my island nation. The neglect of poor communities and a lack of opportunities to earn a legal income has led to a situation where, there are enclaves where order is not maintained by the state (law enforcement) but, by self appointed enforcers often referred to as “dons”. These enforcers are gangsters who run protection rackets encompassing business operations within reach of their organization among other questionable means of “earning” a living. I see this as a rudimentary form of feudalism, with the enforcers offering safety to the community in exchange for their money in the case of the business operators or loyalty in the case of the residents.

            In many cases the local enforcer is considered more effective than the police. There are countless tales of people being robbed or vehicles being broken into and the victim having their property returned to them after consultations with the “don” in charge of the area where the offense occurred. Whether or not justice is served depends on whether the enforcer’s idea of justice sides with the victim or the perpetrator. This is straightforward in some cases but, in more complicated cases the enforcement may not satisfy those who feel a need for justice. It is a messy state of affairs and reprisal killings represent a high proportion of murders on the island. In the absence of a formal system of courts and penal institutions the penalty for transgression can easily be death.

            Being so close to what most would consider primitive forms of maintaining order, I lean to the side of a less cavalier attitude towards a wholesale breakdown of the status quo. It could be replaced by something that is much worse from my perspective. I would hope that a widespread adoption of renewable energy systems on a global scale might lead to a greater awareness among the general public of the need to conserve resources and the folly of elevating economic growth to a place of primacy. That’s my take on a very simplistic level.

            1. Alan, ‘bailing’ was meant to mean getting off the runaway train as soon and as effectively as possible. In my imagination, this doesn’t mean dons and guns and reprisal deaths. Maybe over there. To me, it means ecovillages, remaking/nurturing real local communities, learning about what grows around you and how to grow your own at the same time, and how to do the basics for yourself, like clothesmaking and homebuilding, and sharing that kind of work and knowledge in the formation of the kind of tight-knit communities that may help hedge our bets, such as where your expressed concerns are concerned. If people get desperate, sure, they can do desperate things, which is why forming sharing, resilient and nurturing communities may be important in that regard, in helping to diminish the effects of desperation and whatnot. That said, I would strongly suggest you look more at/to your land and/vis-a-vis surrounding communities and/or people at least as much if not more than things like EV’s PV’s, and see how you can leverage things.

               Incidentally, now that I think about it, Zero Hedge is AFAIUnderstand, an ‘aggregator’ site or whatever you want to call it. It pulls news and info from a variety of sources.

               1. Caelan, I fear you are seriously out of touch with the reality as it exists in much of the world. I looked up the population of Halifax, Nova Scotia (431,479 in 2017) to compare it to Kingston, Jamaica (666,041 in 2012) to see if I can understand how you could possibly embrace such romantic notions.

                  There are at least 50% more people living in the city where I live compared to where you live and the per capita income here is roughly one fifth of the per capita income of Canada. Gasoline prices are comparable while electricity is more expensive in Jamaica than it is in Canada. Is it any wonder that, by some estimates 25% of the electricity produced by the local utility in Jamaica is stolen?

                  I wager that if you were to visit Jamaica for one week and let me take you around to the sorts places the tourists never get to see, you would lose your idealistic notions forever. I can take you to places and show you people in circumstances that would probably leave you depressed for the rest of your life!

                  For a glimpse into what I am talking about, take a look at the following popular music video on YouTube. Some of the scenes, shot in Kampala, Uganda, remind me of parts of the desperately poor urban areas not that far from my pampered existence. If the music isn’t to your liking, you can just mute the audio and watch.

                  French Montana – Unforgettable ft. Swae Lee (Official Music Video)

               2. For a glimpse into what I am talking about, take a look at the following popular music video on YouTube. Some of the scenes, shot in Kampala, Uganda, remind me of parts of the desperately poor urban areas not that far from my pampered existence.

                  Great music! BTW, I could take you to visit places that look much like that in São Paulo and Rio too, not to mention North Eastern Brazil. Or parts of South East Asia, It is very much an example of the inequities of wealth and resource distribution around the world. It is also compounded by the continuing slow motion detonation of the population bomb.

               3. “I could take you to visit places that look much like that in São Paulo and Rio too, not to mention North Eastern Brazil.”

                  So, I take it that, in the context of such places, you would concur that some of Caelan’s ideas are idealistic and highly unrealistic?

               4. My post was just intended as a direct response to the video itself. While I assume that the individual you are referencing has not suddenly had the scales fall from his eyes, I have him on ignore and no longer read what he has to say. To say he is out of touch with current reality is probably a gross understatement.

                  For one thing he seems to be completely unwilling to even examine the possibility that disruptive distributed technologies such as PV and EVs could be profoundly undermining the very so called ‘crony-capitalist plutarchy’ that he so cultishly rails against. I think there are signs that it already is.

                  As Yuval Noah Harari has said, technology is neutral. Radio waves can be used to stream music or educate the public or it can be used to disseminate hate speech and propaganda. It is up to the people to decide how they want to structure their societies.
                  Saying renewables are bad because our current system is bad is at the very least a display of ignorance and at worst a cowardly cop out. I have no patience with such.

                  Given that we as a global civilization are faced with unprecedented existential threats on multiple levels, it is sheer arrogance to claim to know that there is one single solution to all of them. That is the mark of religious fanaticism.

                  Cheers!

               5. I’m reminded of a Brazilian movie I watched some years ago, City of God (Cidade de Deus). This movie portrayed life in Brazil in a way that I found unusual. It did not appear to be sanitized, portraying the life of poor folk in Brazil that appeared to me to have some realism. City of God reminded me of a classic Jamaican movie from the early seventies, “The Harder They Come” that had a similar sense of realism to me, having grown up in the island during the period in which the story was set.

                  It is quite rare to see scenes showing the plight of the poor as entertainment. In the music video, the kids were having a ball but, the backdrop of extreme poverty was hard not to notice. Yet people in these circumstances might tell you they don’t realize how poor they are because that is their reality. To them the life that most westerners take for granted may as well be a fairy tale or science fiction. Despite that, people in these circumstances, in many cases are still very dependent on the continued ample supply of FF for their survival.

               6. Despite that, people in these circumstances, in many cases are still very dependent on the continued ample supply of FF for their survival.

                  Yes, however it must be said, that the evil capitalist system (which I am not exactly a huge fan of) does allow outside the box thinking entrepeneurs, NGOs and others to provide alternatives to that FF use.

                  Case in point:
                  http://theconversation.com/how-solar-kits-and-battery-lamps-are-replacing-kerosene-across-africa-100345

                  How solar kits and battery lamps are replacing kerosene across Africa

                  https://cdm.unfccc.int/ProgrammeOfActivities/Validation/DB/A3YXATPTE2VKV38UIR1LWA3D55C8GQ/view.html

                  ENERCAP SunLighting™ Africa – Programme to replace kerosene lamps with micro PV LED systems in the Sub-Sahara region

                  To mindlessly attack programs such as these and equate them with the work of some exploitative strawman crony-capitalist plutarchy requires a very special brand of idiocy!

                  /Rant off!

                  Of course none of this means we should accept the status quo, we should all be doing everything in our power to disrupt it and sow the seeds of change!

               7. I was thinking more in terms of the food supply. Industrial scale farming produces huge amounts grain which provides food for humans and their livestock. I’m thinking milk, eggs, meat (beef, pork chicken) which depend on corn and soy bean based feeds. Then there’s wheat, rice, sugar and potatoes. Low cost tinned fish like sardines, mackerel and tuna are all caught on an industrial scale.

                  What happens to the global food supply in the face of shortages of fuel to run all these industrial scale processes? I suspect supplies will contract and prices will go up. No cheap powdered milk, no surplus grain to provide food aid. How will those who are barely eking out a living on the margins of society now be affected?

                  According to some people, we should form “ecovillages, remaking/nurturing real local communities, learning about what grows around you and how to grow your own at the same time, and how to do the basics for yourself, like clothesmaking and homebuilding, and sharing that kind of work and knowledge in the formation of the kind of tight-knit communities that may help hedge our bets”. I haven’t even mentioned the likely adverse effects of climate change yet! We are looking at population migrations on an unprecedented scale.

                  Sorry, I’d rather see the current FF based energy and transport systems disrupted, with the hope that the necessary reductions in population can be more orderly and massive conflicts can be avoided. I can only hope.

               8. Yeah. I agree!

                  I’m all for ecovillages, local production of goods and healthy progressive communities! But if we have any chance at all of supporting even the current 8 billion humans already here, then we need to employ the best science and technology available. We can’t all expect to live like Hobbits, as nice as that might be.

                  I think it our ecovillages will probably look a lot more like this:

                  https://www.fastcompany.com/90207375/the-worlds-first-high-tech-eco-village-will-reinvent-suburbs

                  The world’s first “high-tech eco village” will reinvent suburbs

                  ReGen village, in the Netherlands, will collect and store its own water and energy, grow its own food, and process much of its own waste. Also: no cars.

               9. “But if we have any chance at all of supporting even the current 8 billion humans already here, then we need to employ the best science and technology available.” ~ Fred Magyar

                  ^ Nonsense, and that is a claim that is uttered without any support.
                  In fact, WRT industrial agro for example, there are increasing voices, some of which I’ve mentioned hereon, that are saying we need to get ourselves off of it.
                  There is also the question put forth by others as to whether technology even improves our lives in the final analysis. Taking a look around us, it would seem that it doesn’t, such as if we are committing ecocide through its manifestation and usage.

                  “We can’t all expect to live like Hobbits, as nice as that might be.” ~ Fred Magyar

                  We can try to live how we choose as long as it doesn’t somehow threaten our existence.

                  Attached is an image of the interior of a ‘Hobbitesque’ house, (which I may have previously mentioned and illustrated hereon) made by one 32-year-old Simon Dale.

                  

               10. That picture looks like something the bugs(termites) in my neck of the woods would make a meal of in no time. That is unless it was made of the very few termite resistant hardwoods available (frightfully expensive!) or treated with (toxic) chemicals every few years to keep the bugs at bay.

               11. Agreed, Alan, though anyone worth their homebuilding salt builds in the context of locality, which includes local materials available and climate.

               12. Places like that around here too. BTW did anyone notice what that kid was dancing on? A huge stack of bags of charcoal. Sustainably produced? Not a chance.

                   NAOM

               13. Yep!

               14. I look forward to checking out the video just after sending this, thanks, Alan.
                   FWIW, I’m ‘stranded’ here in Halifax at the moment. I dislike cities, and was not initially here or planned to be here, but rather in a small town where we still have the land. You’ve already heard of Transition Towns, permaculture, rewilding, tiny houses, guerrilla gardening, ecovillages, ecoagriculture and the like, yes? Well those are in part behind, and also related to, the ideas that have been evolving.

                   People of course like to limit their thinking and doing for themselves and others (which is why we have technological and sociopolitical disasters for example) and using such labels as ‘idealistic’ or ‘utopian’ or whatever, while, apparently, many surprising and resounding successes have often been made by those who were less susceptible to those kinds of limits. I think it’s important to be realistic, but being so can have different outcomes, depending on one’s imagination, capabilities, locales, opportunities, experiences and so forth. We are not each other and you live there and I live here.

                   Ok, let me get my headphones out…

               15. The Ideological Monocultures, Mindfucks and Inverted Priorities of Electric Vehicles and Non-Renewable Renewables

                   “I fear you are seriously out of touch with the reality as it exists in much of the world. I looked up the population of Halifax, Nova Scotia (431,479 in 2017) to compare it to Kingston, Jamaica (666,041 in 2012) to see if I can understand how you could possibly embrace such romantic notions… For a glimpse into what I am talking about, take a look at the following popular music video on YouTube. Some of the scenes, shot in Kampala, Uganda, remind me of parts of the desperately poor urban areas not that far from my pampered existence.” ~ islandboy

                   And you think that narrowly focusing on (and huckstering) industrial crony-capitalist plutarchy-[often elite-]derived electric vehicles and photovoltaic panels in those kinds of places are realistic compared to what I’m suggesting?

                   Do you realize that you’re supporting my case?

                   What does poverty mean to you? What do you think creates it?

                   People need the priorities of clean air, potable water, good shelter, clean land, living/fertile soil, etc.– everywhere– and the basic knowledge and skills– that many have lost– in their support and empowerment. They most certainly do not need industrial detritus– that many often cannot even afford.

                   You’ve mentioned your land you have there. What are you doing with it?

               16. There are different kinds of PV solutions for different markets and for tropical fuel poor areas like many parts of Africa a small PV panel with facilities for charging a few battery powered LED lamps, a cell phone and maybe even a small portable TV or radio can make a huge difference. It can free vast numbers of people from the expense of having to buy kerosene ad infinitum, not to mention the improvement in air quality inside the dwellings. Do you have a problem with that? If so, do you not realize that you are (inadvertently?) supporting the “industrial crony-capitalist plutarchy-[often elite-]derived” sale of kerosene with it’s associated carbon emissions?

                   As for the land I have, I have given the farm hand I used to employ permission to cultivate it as he sees fit. I haven’t visited it for almost a year and the electricity supply to the main section of the house has been disconnected. I have been told that if I want to prevent the continued pilferage of produce and grazing of goats I should re-establish a fence around the perimeter (approx 2060 ft./630m). A six foot high, chain link fence with barbed wire on top would cost roughly JMD $3 million (@133 JMD to 1 USD =US$22,550). It might be useful to note that the operators of the first toll road built in Jamaica have had problems with the theft of fencing they put up to stop animals from straying on to the roadway.

                   If you would like to have a go I will offer you the use of the property, rent free, to test your ideas but, you will have to contend with fairly steep slopes on about half of the area and a very unreliable water supply, that my late father opted not to use, despite the presence of pipes connected to the supply. Instead we had a rainwater catchment system with about 5,000 gallons of tanks connected and an additional 1,000 gallon tank, yet to fed with additional guttering and connected.

                   I would have to identify a very high value crop to justify spending anywhere close to $22,000 on fencing that faced the prospect of being stolen. My neighbors weren’t happy with the fact that one of my dogs was being very hostile when they were passing through to pasture their goats on my property. Their solution was to wound the dog with a machete. I wasn’t told about this till after the wound had been left untreated and the dog had died. Maybe you could remake/nurture a real local tight knit community with these great folks so that you wouldn’t even need a fence!

               17. Below is a picture of a really high end solar PV kit of the sort being targeted at Africa. See:

                   A new business model built with cheap batteries may finally electrify Africa

                   d.light’s solar home system sells 120,000 units within six months

                   

               18. I have been told that if I want to prevent the continued pilferage of produce and grazing of goats I should re-establish a fence around the perimeter (approx 2060 ft./630m). A six foot high, chain link fence with barbed wire on top would cost roughly JMD $3 million (@133 JMD to 1 USD =US$22,550).

                   Have you considered planting a bamboo hedge around the property. We do that a lot in Brazil. Much cheaper and more durable than a chain link fence. You might even consider adding a solar powered electric fence at the right height to discourage the goats 😉

               19. Fred, what specie of bamboo do you grow for fencing? The stuff that is common around here can grow stalks as big as 3.5 inches in diameter and easily 20 to 30 feet tall. In some areas, like the steep hills through which the main road heading due north from the capital city runs, it has spread like an invasive species and during the dry season it burns very easily. It’s easy to tell when it’s bamboo that is burning from all the racket, as the air inside the sections gets hot and eventually causes the sections to burst, explosively.

                   At any rate with about a third of the perimeter running under electricity supply wires, anything that grows too tall, too fast is a no go. Did you know:

                   The world record for the fastest growing plant belongs to certain species of the 45 genera of bamboo, which have been found to grow at up to 91 cm (35 in) per day or at a rate of 0.00003 km/h (0.00002 mph). According to the RHS Dictionary of Gardening, there are approximately 1,000 species of bamboos.

                   There is one clump of the common stuff on the property and I have had to go out on occasion to have a word with folks who come to harvest bamboo for the erection of temporary structures, without any regard for the fact that the bamboo they are harvesting is on private property. I do wish they would just ask. I once asked a set of guys if they would be okay with me just strolling into their yard and cutting down a plant or two?

               20. Fred, what specie of bamboo do you grow for fencing.

                   Any bamboo that is a runner rather than a clumper. Perhaps some thing like Phyllostachys aurea. We had it growing along the edge of a property we owned out in the country. Once it grows in it is almost impenetrable and makes a good dividing line between your property and your neighbor’s. Because of your over head lines the Phyllostachys aurea maybe a little too tall for you but the point is you need a species that is a runner.

                   http://www.bamboogarden.com/Phyllostachys%20aurea.htm

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2bXm28QBbo

                   Bamboo Growing 101 : How to Grow a Bamboo Fence

               21. So, I’m guessing a 2-3 foot trench would need to be dug an then plastic barrier material spread on each side of the trench before filling it back in?

                   I’ll have to find out if that type of bamboo is available here.

               22. Running bamboo is a nightmare, IMHO.
                   In Hawaii, it is a never ending job.

               23. “It can free vast numbers of people from the expense of having to buy kerosene ad infinitum, not to mention the improvement in air quality inside the dwellings. Do you have a problem with that?” ~ islandboy

                   Like much, ‘it depends’.
                   Just because one might be against something doesn’t mean they are against it outright in all contexts, nor automatically for something else…
                   But I can see if some might be peddling things that some kinds of oversimplistic and misleading dichotomies might be leveraged.

                   It does no good for anyone if the IMF loans or trinkets crony-capitalists throw at poor people (as if there’re no other alternatives, such as by their own hands and localities) under some dubious ‘We are here to help you.’ token-phrase-generator don’t get supported over time, don’t really help and/or cause additional problems.

                   Then we can have more suicides, debt-slaves (peonage), bigger waste dumps, more dependencies and trinkets that don’t work, etc..

                   FWIW, as I’ve read more often than not, especially recently, we ‘Westerners’ would appear to have to ‘impoverish ourselves’ to get in line with our consumption patterns. So perhaps some corporate outfits might wish to be careful (as if) what they peddle the poor, lest their consumption patterns rise beyond some critical thresholds which may defeat some purposes.

                   Intriguing about your land and thanks for the offer. If you might be interested, feel free to keep in touch and over time, we might be able to do some kinds of micro land/people-networking/trade and/or things along those lines, such that was mentioned before. Maybe minus the machete guy.

               24. Hightrekker,
                   Just make sure you take the necessary preparations so you don’t have it run wild! If you don’t, it will run wild and you will certainly end up with a nightmare on your hands! Your choice.

               25. Study hard before planting bamboo. I saw a bamboo nursery that had a nightmare when one of them crossed under a strong paved road and invaded other species plots.

               26. Temporary Guests On Earth

                   “For a glimpse into what I am talking about, take a look at the following popular music video on YouTube. Some of the scenes, shot in Kampala, Uganda, remind me of parts of the desperately poor urban areas not that far from my pampered existence. If the music isn’t to your liking, you can just mute the audio and watch.

                   French Montana – Unforgettable ft. Swae Lee (Official Music Video)”

                   That’s not bad. I’ve seen worse. But compare that to a classic/historical African environment. What are the differences?

                   “Relatively-early/Self-induced extinction is possible of course, but maybe only in conditions severe enough that threaten the arthropods, as in the Permian-Triassic event apparently. This seems to assume, though, that arthropods are ‘tough’ across the board, which I doubt. For example, last week in Shelburne, NS, for the first time ever, I saw a water spider emerge from a marsh, and it made me wonder how ‘niche arthropods’ could be affected… In any case, from my perch, indications suggest that humans are seriously flirting with that kind of eventuality. I still see one car per person, and it appears as the majority.” ~ Caelan MacIntyre, C. 2014

                   When the arthropods are beginning to get knocked off, BAU Green Inc. non-renewable renewables and electric cars should be among the least of our preoccupations.

                   I’m guessing that the background vocals are African, but I’m unsure. If anyone might know, or even have some idea, if they’d kindly let me know, it would be appreciated…

                   Guests

      2. Not Jamaica, but the US South:

         https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/the-myth-of-the-kindly-general-lee/529038/

         Lee separated families. Is that where Trump got his idea from?

10. Timelapse of The Future: A Journey to the End of Time
    (Video, 29:20 minutes length)

    “How’s it all gonna end? This experience takes us on a journey to the end of time, trillions of years into the future…”

    1. Very cool video.
       I have to say i disagree with certain aspects of the current cosmological model. Extrapolating with the current model will certainly lead into science fiction more than science fact.
       Think about it this way, we have difficulty, real difficulty predicting peak oil. Predicting the fate of the universe! We almost certainly be wrong.
       I think quintessence is more likely than the cosmological constant. Hence my worthless opinion, a big crunch is more likely than the heat death.

       Regardless of my rant, a very nice video.

       1. You call that a rant? Hahaha… ‘u^

          Seriously, glad you liked it.
          They should make one for each major theory of the future of the universe (though maybe they have or will).
          I seem to have heard of quintessence and might try to find some time to look it up.

11. If you didn’t digest this article when it was posted a few months back, I’d suggest considering it.
    This could be spot on, a big factor in the drop in auto sales- just starting.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/

    And thanks for the great article Island Boy.

    1. Interesting, I have been thinking that Tesla released the model-Y too early as well as teasing the pickup. Needed to get a good speed up on the model-3 first, add to that starting new markets at the same time…

       NAOM

12. Google Maps app now has EV charging stations integrated in to the mapping.
    Very cool.
    Just type in ‘EV charging stations’ into the search bar. Works great!
    The closest public one to my home is 3.2 miles.
    Although there are literally hundreds of private ones (homes) much closer than that.

    https://www.utilitydive.com/news/google-maps-adds-live-ev-charger-information/553361/

    1. Woah, got 3 Tesla in hotels and car rental, down here. 8A does not appear to be where it is marked on the map. I go past there, so will keep my eyes out. There is also a charger outside the Nissan service depot.

       NAOM

       1. No, 8A is not there, it is a college. Googling seems to give me a LTH battery supplier about 2 blocks east of the. Might look into that.

          NAOM

          1. Took a quick look in passing, lots of lead acid batteries but no sign of a charger.

             NAOM

    2. Thanks for the link!!!

       Have you tried to compare this to the Plugshare (https://www.plugshare.com/) offering?

       1. I’ve got Plug-Share. I hardly ever charge out and about, but the app sure seemed outstanding the few times I’ve used it.
          If was an electric car driver who had to charge elsewhere beside home, I would take a moment to become very familiar with both sources of info.
          These kind of innovations show the very start of the big change that is coming.

13. These 75 Minnesota Democrat lawmakers and 4 Republicans say humans are a ‘key cause of climate change’
    By Dave Orrick

    https://www.twincities.com/2019/04/24/these-50-minnesota-republican-lawmakers-say-humans-arent-causing-climate-change/

    Minnesota House members revealed Wednesday whether they believe humans are causing climate change.

    It broke largely along party lines: 79 lawmakers, including all 75 Democrats, voted yes, and 50 Republicans voted no. Five Republicans did not vote.

    They voted on this sentence:

    “The legislature finds and declares that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities are a key cause of climate change.”

    That was all it was. No money, no regulations.

    Several Republicans spoke against the vote — and the notion of human-caused climate change.

    “Human activities are not the cause of climate change,” said state Rep. Eric Lucero, R-Dayton, in a speech on the House floor.

    He repeated the sentence at least twice and continued, implying, apparently, that because the Earth has been both colder and hotter in the past, climate science is flawed.

    “We were at one point in an ice age,” he said, adding later, “This is fake.”

    Every Democrat voted in favor of the declaration.

    1. That is a serious disagreement among management. One that will not be resolved by a few words. Best to scrap the whole team.

14. https://phys.org/news/2019-04-take-off-electric-aircraft-disruption.html

    Get set for take-off in electric aircraft, the next transport disruption

    Move aside electric cars, another disruption set to occur in the next decade is being ignored in current Australian transport infrastructure debates: electric aviation. Electric aircraft technology is rapidly developing locally and overseas, with the aim of potentially reducing emissions and operating costs by over 75%. Other countries are already planning for 100% electric short-haul plane fleets within a couple of decades…

    …Two major components of current airline costs are fuel (27%) and maintenance (11%). Electric aircraft could deliver significant price reductions through reduced energy and maintenance costs.

    Short-haul electric aircraft are particularly compelling given the inherent energy efficiency, simplicity and longevity of the battery-powered motor and drivetrain. No alternative fuel sources can deliver the same level of savings.

    1. Obvious step, but who will keep all the contrails going to protect us from the sun?
       Australia will be getting a few extra watts/m2 as that coal, aircraft and road pollution fades away.

       Hmmm, 10 percent is about 27 w/m2. Is that a big enough change to get anyone’s attention?
       Well, think up to 22 percent dimming in some regions.
       What happens to your cities and fields when suddenly they get a lot more sunlight plus a lot more heating from infrared?

       the community at large may be quite surprised to find that there are significant components of the climate system about which scientists are still wondering and one of them is the role of aerosols. But there are others and these are not to say that we don’t know anything about the climate system, but simply that we don’t know everything and that when we base our projections of the future and therefore make policy, we have to understand that we’re doing this in the kind of risk framework that says yes, the directions of the science suggests these things are going to happen but there are possibilities of changes, some of them maybe even abrupt, that will need to mean that our policy will have to change into the future.

       https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/global-dimming/3451222#transcript

       1. Obvious step, but who will keep all the contrails going to protect us from the sun?
          Australia will be getting a few extra watts/m2 as that coal, aircraft and road pollution fades away

          We will have thousands of giant solar powered blimps releasing graphene dust at high altitude…/sarc

15. 1986 — Ukraine, USSR: Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurs.

16. For @Fred and others on !plastic

    https://www.theguardian.com/green-shoots/2019/mar/29/the-startups-paving-the-way-for-a-world-without-plastics

    NAOM

    1. Yes! Thanks, there are a lot of good people attacking this problem from many different angles.

       Not the least of which is to distribute manufacturing of so called disposables to sites where the end products are needed. With biopolymers and 3D printing it is possible to almost completely eliminate the need to transport disposables to say, a land fill and instead reuse them as a resource stream at the end users location.

       There are also some rather radical social change components that are already becoming obvious as a consequence of a more local socially networked circular economic paradigm.
       Most people who are still part of the status quo don’t have a clue as to the magnitude of the changes and disruptions that are coming down the pipe! They will be swept away by the tsunamis!

       Cheers!

17. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257170-university-chicago-reports-renewables-luxury-man-can-afford

    In the meantime, we have a world full of people who publish such bullshit as this.

    1. What else would you expect from an article written by an attorney about a report put out by the Chicago School of Economics… 😉

       The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics serves as a hub for cutting-edge analysis and research across the entire University of Chicago economics …

       …Chicago School is a neoclassical economic school of thought that originated at the University of Chicago in the 1940s. … The Chicago School includes monetarist beliefs about the economy, contending that the money supply should be kept in equilibrium with the demand for money.

       Case in point: Wilhelm Nordhaus…
       ,

       

       1. SOME of the things wrong with the University of Chicago paper claiming renewables are uneconomic:

          https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/27/nrdc-blog-what-that-flashy-renewable-energy-paper-got-wrong/

          It takes a low life fossil fuel mouth piece to write the crap in the U of C paper, knowing it’s all out of date by years in terms of costs, etc.

          1. See my comment further down linking to some research out of Australia that contradicts the rubbish coming out of U of C.

    2. Note the disclaimer about being a shorter.

       NAOM

18. Hi Gang. My Last Adventure

    Beginning early Monday morning, I will begin pulling my 17 foot RV trailer from Florida to New Mexico. I pull it with my pickup truck. It will take me four days, three nights to get there because I am only going to travel about 300 miles per day. So after tomorrow, I will not be posting until the end of the week.

    I am going to spend at least the next six months and possibly up to two years traveling from camp to camp. But I have Verizon Hotspot with unlimited data. That means I get my internet via my cell phone and tablet. Either device works just like like a modem and router. They transmit directly to my computer. I can actually stream Youtube videos and get full 4G internet as long as I am within shot of a cell phone tower. And I purchased a $500 amplifier with an outside antenna so I can get cell reception even in the boonies.

    Most of my time for the first six months I will be staying in New Mexico state parks. There are about 25 of them with water and electric hookups. They are very cheap, $225 for a full one year pass. Plus you must pay $4 a night if you get electricity and water hookups. No extra charge if you don’t get the hookups. But I have a 2000 watt generator that I can run for a few hours a day in case I am deep in the boonies. And I also have a 100-watt solar panel that I mount on the ground so I can always turn it toward the sun. That will keep my battery charged and my cell phone and computer charged.

    I hope to keep posting even from the boonies. I want to keep my OPEC posts going as long as Dennis wishes. And possibly an extra post now and then. I will also be working on my Youtube video or videos which I hope to post, perhaps around September or October. I expect it to take a full six months, or possibly more, to complete this project.

    I turn 81 in June so this will be my last adventure. I have to do this now or never.

    1. Bon Voyage!

    2. Awesome! have fun!

    3. Good travels and adventures—

    4. I’m envious of you!!!
       Safe travels!!!

    5. Be safe Ron.
       I sure value hearing your perspective on things.
       You are more clear headed than the vast horde.
       Enjoy that low humidity, and florescent lichen.

    6. Ron,

       Enjoy your trip! Stay safe.

    7. Stay healthy and safe my friend.

    8. Have fun! Send us some photos.

       1. Have a great time!

    9. I wish you good luck Ron, and God bless with good health.

    10. All that at 81 seems impressive, Ron. You must have been eating your Wheaties.
        I think Kirk Douglas is 102, so maybe after that trip, you could do one from Alaska to the tip of Chile.
        Looking forward to hearing from you on the road or, as you might write, out of pocket.
        BTW, FWIW, Walmart may still have their free overnight parking/camping.

        1. Ron, will you be in or near Amarillo and Palo Duro State Park? You might see some Boone Pickens windmills. https://tpwd.texas.gov/state-parks/palo-duro-canyon

    11. Best wishes Ron. What is your YouTube where we’ll be able to find your videos?

        1. Thanks, Keith. I don’t have one yet. I will post it when I do.

    12. Ron, I’m glad to hear it. You deserve this and I wish you the best.

        New Mexico is a beautiful state, all right. I’ve begun thinking along similar lines to you though not with such ambition and the Southwest is where I always went, the whole Colorado Plateau especially south-central Utah and northern Arizona. September was my favorite time of year. I’m hoping for another visit before I settle into the varnish here.

        (In western New Mexico campgrounds you’ll sometimes see signs saying don’t camp near the canyon walls; best to be careful when hiking, too. Field mice carry bubonic plague there, but doctors in the region probably know more about spotting it than in any other part of the country. Silver lining, of sorts.)

        I envy you the wonderful food you’re going to find.

    13. That sounds like quite an adventure, Ron. I hope you enjoy it!

    14. Have fun!

19. For those interested in keeping up with the electric power system and it’s changing structure, this online magazine might help.

    https://www.electricity-today.com/

20. On why Tesla’s new chip is such a big deal…

    https://stevecheney.com/on-teslas-incredible-platform-advantage/

21. It is an awesome feat of design and engineering on so many levels.
    Whether anyone likes it or not this vehicle already has fully autonomous capability.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyyeY8jO5UM&t=6s
    Tesla Model 3 Performance Review: A Tesla Nordic Roadtrip | Fully Charged

22. Is this a case of single-variable-itis and coincidence or is it real?
    Slowing Gulf Stream current to boost warming for 20 years
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44875508

    1. Is this a case of single-variable-itis and coincidence or is it real?

       Or put another way, is the AMOC running amok? 😉

       https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0320-y

       Our results, based on several independent indices, show that AMOC changes since the 1940s are best explained by multidecadal variability, rather than an anthropogenically forced trend. Leading indicators in the subpolar North Atlantic today suggest that the current AMOC decline is ending. We expect a prolonged AMOC minimum, probably lasting about two decades.

       And now, back to our regularly scheduled climate change!

       1. Not concerned with their short term variability analysis. Their evidence supporting the inverse heating and cooling normally expected coincides with other major heating and cooling factors. In other words, their evidence for slowing increasing global temperature coincided with a decrease in global dimming. The cited period of slower temperature increase coincided with a fast rise in coal burning and other pollution.

          In fact I am skeptical of the multidecadal trend conclusion.
          The temperature change related to overturning current should take much longer.

          “But these insights—often derived from model runs under preindustrial conditions—may not apply to the modern era with our rapid emissions of greenhouse gases. If they do, then a weakened AMOC, as in 1975–1998, should have led to Northern Hemisphere cooling. Here we show that, instead, the AMOC minimum was a period of rapid surface warming. ” Probably caused by global warming with quickly increasing GHG concentrations.
          Single-minded-single-variable-itiis
          Data is nice, poor conclusions undermine the system and the science.

          1. I guess at the very least we can chalk it up as another small part of the elephant being examined by all the blind men. Of course the blind men will never be able to tell us if it is a pink elephant or a white one… And once the elephant starts its rampage in earnest, it really won’t matter all that much!

             Cheers!

             1. Really? ” by all the blind men”
                Two guys do not make all the scientists.

                No Matter what Dilbert Tells You – Climate Science not Based on Models
                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nrWQ4tMBrs

                1. Really? ” by all the blind men”
                   Two guys do not make all the scientists.

                   I meant the public at large!

                2. Yeah, they read Dilbert.
                   I explained infrared radiation to one of my neighbors the other day. Sixty years on the planet and does not know much geography let alone the fact that we are surrounded by and emanate invisible electromagnetic radiation.

                   Most of the world hardly exists for most of the people. They are not interested in the elephant at all.
                   Even Americans highly concerned about climate change dramatically underestimate the scientific consensus

                   But while 97% of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused global warming is happening, most Americans are unaware of this scientific consensus. Recent surveys of more than 8,000 U.S. adults find that even those who have great concern about climate change tend to underestimate the scientific consensus by a large margin.

                   Our prior research has found that Americans can be categorized into six groups – dubbed Global Warming’s Six Americas. People categorized as “Dismissive” and “Doubtful” tend to disbelieve climate science, so it is unsurprising that they believe the scientific consensus to be lower (44% and 52%) than it actually is (97%).
                   

                   https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/

                   And we know the scientific consensus underestimates the reality, so the people are way below comprehension of the situation.

                3. And we know the scientific consensus underestimates the reality, so the people are way below comprehension of the situation.

                   My experience with family and friends many of whom hold science degrees, is that even those who understand the science and accept the consensus, still can’t quite seem to wrap their heads around the implications of the underestimation of the risks. I think it will take finding themselves in a situation where their water and food is rationed before they start to get it at a gut level.

                   A couple of years ago my cousins who farm in Sao Paulo state were exposed to drought conditions connected to climate change, but they still haven’t quite connected the dots. And that is despite being Agronomists.

                   So what chance does the average scientifically uneducated citizen have of understanding what is happening.

                4. Get a beer, and watch the game.

                5. Having just completed a survey concerning the die-back of certain evergreens and death of certain vines in my area, I think we may be witnessing one of the many faces of evolution.
                   People notice these changes somewhat but rarely can put the pieces together. Even if they do, there is little to be done about it.

                6. GoneFishing,

                   What evergreens and vines are dying back in the region?

                7. In dire situations if you decide to play deaf and dumb and stupid to threats, you usually wind up the first to be a victim.

                8. Synapsid, evergree4ns like arborvitae, cedar and some of the yew shrub variants are showing lots of damage. Definitely not a drought problem, have had steady wet here.

                   Have Virginia creeper vines in two different places that just completely died. Not a bud or leaf showing.

                9. Roger Hallam has a few things to say on this here

                   https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2019/apr/26/owen-jones-meets-extinction-rebellion-were-the-planets-fire-alarm-video

                   NAOM

23. I’m wondering if it will be possible to extract lithium from sea water economically anytime within the near future.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/538036/quest-to-mine-seawater-for-lithium-advances/

    My guess is that if lithium and the other essential elements needed to produce lithium batteries are available in sufficient quantities, we will collectively be able to get along just fine with lithium based batteries.

    The cost of manufacturing them, apart from the raw materials, will probably fall by half within another decade, with durability and performance increasing substantially.

    Most people of the people who rant on and on about the renewable energy storage issue seem to have a mental block when it comes to considering ways to USE wind and solar energy, as it is generated, in ways that render short term storage unnecessary. We don’t need electrical energy storage to provide heat and cooling on a twenty four hour cycle. That problem can easily be dealt with by incorporating thermal mass into new construction. ETC.

    Furthermore a lot of the people who DO get it, in ecological or natural terms, seem to be obsessively focused on the long term future, forgetting that the long term is only an academic question, unless we survive the short term.

    “‘I wish it need not have happened in my time,’ said Frodo.
    ‘So do I,’ said Gandalf, ‘and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.’”

    There are countless ways we can use the time that is given us to make things better, or at least delay the time of the darkness that might engulf us. Whether we ever achieve a fully functional and sustainable industrial civilization based on renewable energy and recycling, etc, is an academic question. Whether such a civilization is even possible is an academic question.

    We know damned well that fossil fuels deplete, and will thus eventually be extremely scarce and expensive, unobtianium in practical terms, without even considering the climate and the biosphere.

    Preaching that renewable energy can never get the job done is simply either ignoramus defeatist bullshit or fossil fuel industry propaganda intended to keep the cash flowing into the ff owners’ pockets as long as possible.

    We have to do what we can, from one day to the next, and one year to the next, to survive over the next few decades, which means continuing to use quite a lot of fast depleting oil and gas, coal too.

    Even if you believe that an industrial economy based on renewable energy is an impossibility, you must understand that whatever we do by way of producing more renewable energy and finding ways to use any all all energy more efficiently, while still living well, DELAYS the time when we must revert to a pre industrial age life style. The renewable energy industries have at the very least already proven that they are capable of extending nature’s one time gift of fossil fuels by many years…. generations at least.

    That is reason enough, for anyone capable of thinking JUST A LITTLE BIT, to understand that we need to keep the pedal to the metal in terms of renewable energy, efficiency, and conservation.

24. Tesla doesn’t stand still.

    “Tesla has improved the efficiency of its Model S and X vehicles, via new motors, wheel bearings, tires and more, giving the Model S Long Range variant 370 miles of range (EPA rating)”

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/24/new-tesla-model-s-370-miles-of-range-epa-goes-from-bay-area-to-la-on-one-charge-tesla-killer-comparisons/

25. Greenland ice sheet melting six times faster than in the 1980s – “It is a bit scary to see how fast it is changing”

    https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/04/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-the-1980s-it-is-a-bit-scary-to-see-how-fast-it-is-changing.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V0Vu_utUZY

    1. They think they reinvented the wheel because of new fancy sensors but truth is Greenland ice is extremely resilient and can withstand surface temperatures 8 ±4°C higher than previous millennium’s average, according to Nature itself:
       http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7433/full/nature11789.html

       1. CLAP!…………….CLAP!…………….CLAP!

          …Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.

          Since you didn’t even bother to read to the end of the abstract, I’m going to bet you haven’t read the entire paper. Not to mention that we know quite a bit more about Greenland ice melt now than what was known even back in 2013 when that paper was published and the news has not been good!

          Here’s an update from a more recent paper.

          https://www.pnas.org/content/116/6/1934

          Abstract
          From early 2003 to mid-2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at a progressively increasing rate. In mid-2013, an abrupt reversal occurred, and very little net ice loss occurred in the next 12–18 months. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations reveal that the spatial patterns of the sustained acceleration and the abrupt deceleration in mass loss are similar. The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO enhances summertime warming and insolation while reducing snowfall, especially in west Greenland, driving surface mass balance (SMB) more negative, as illustrated using the regional climate model MAR. The spatial pattern of accelerating mass changes reflects the geography of NAO-driven shifts in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to that forcing. We infer that southwest Greenland will become a major future contributor to sea level rise.

          I’m sure you will be excited to know that you can read the paper in its entirety at the link provided. Though I highly doubt that you will!

       2. Seems strange when a paper using the NEEM data and other borehole data shows Eemian Ice at least 2750 meters down from the surface. Also Greenland melt in the Eemian contributed about 5 meters to sea level rise. Since Greenland could only contribute 7 meters if it all melted, most of the ice was gone from Greenland in the Eemian period.

          https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/08/10/1524766113

          That was with about 650 to 750 ppb methane, and 250 to 280 ppm.
          Now we have 1850 ppb methane and over 400 ppm CO2 and rising fast. With those values the Arctic will eventually hit 18c- 24C above preindustrial.

          How sensitive is the climate to increases in CO2, according to this “absolutely new knowledge” of paleoclimate temperatures?

          Another significant finding to emerge from this first continuous, high-resolution record of the Middle Pliocene is documentation of sustained warmth with summer temperatures of about 59 to 61 degrees F [15 to 16 degrees C], about 8 degrees C [14 F] warmer than today.

          This period of Arctic warmth “coincides, in part with a long interval of 1.2 million years when the West Antarctic Ice sheet did not exist.” Indeed, sea levels during the mid-Pliocine were about 25 m [82 feet] higher than today!

          It is worth noting that a 2009 analysis in Science found that when CO2 levels were this high 15 to 20 million years ago, it was 5° to 10°F warmer globally and seas were also 75 to 120 feet higher.

          Science (1/11) study — On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter: Paleoclimate data suggests CO2 “may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models”

          
          https://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/13/last-time-co2-levels-hit-400-parts-per-million-humans-were-alive-never/

          And it’s not just CO2, methane is also a follower of temperature, sometimes a big one.

          1. Article and animation showing results of data from ice-penetrating radar on the Greenland Ice sheet.

             This new map allows scientists to determine the age of large swaths of Greenland’s ice, extending ice core data for a better picture of the ice sheet’s history. “This new, huge data volume records how the ice sheet evolved and how it’s flowing today,” said Joe MacGregor, a glaciologist at The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics and the study’s lead author.

             https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nasa-data-peers-into-greenlands-ice-sheet

26. Australia can be powered 100% by renewables by early 2030s, says Garnaut

    Leading economist and climate change policy expert Professor Ross Garnaut says that Australia could be powered 100 per cent by “intermittent” renewables by the early 2030s, and have a grid that is both reliable and secure and cheaper than it is now.

    In the third of a series of six public lectures being delivered by Garnaut in the lead up to the next election, Garnaut says a grid powered by wind and solar, and backed by storage and demand management, could be achieve quite quickly, but it would require the “train wreck” of regulatory failures to be fixed.

    “I now have no doubt that intermittent renewables could meet 100 per cent of Australia’s electricity requirements by the 2030s, with high degrees of security and reliability, and at wholesale prices much lower than any experienced in Australia over the past decade,” Garnaut says in his talk last week at the University of Melbourne (a video of which can be seen here).[snip]

    Garnaut lamented the policy and political debate over renewable energy in the past decade, and the “train wreck of regulatory failure” that would need to be cleared to make room for the underlying economic forces.

    This is particularly significant, because it is now widely recognised that it is not economics, or even engineering that is holding back the clean energy transition, but regulatory hurdles that are looming large as the major impediment.

    This goes to the wholesale regulatory capture of regulator by the industry, although Garnaut did note the positive influence of AEMO CEO Audrey Zibelman and AER chief Paul Conboy.

    1. “This is particularly significant, because it is now widely recognised that it is not economics, or even engineering that is holding back the clean energy transition, but regulatory hurdles that are looming large as the major impediment.”

       Interpreted as legacy power industry keeping the population and the world captive as long as possible.
       A warning for the future, be very wary what new technologies we allow on the planet, we tend to get stuck with them even as they prove harmful or change to harmful.

27. Australia is a special case, in respect to solar power, ditto the American southwest.

    Places where the weather is reliably sunny, almost every day, have a big advantage in terms of energy production per dollar invested in solar farms.

    So they reach the magic tipping point at which solar juice is the cheapest option sooner than places such as Virginia…….. It will probably be five or ten more years before a solar farm here will produce juice on an annual basis at the low cost achieved TODAY in Australia or say New Mexico.

    But I like it better when it’s not quite so hot and sunny, with more greenery, and ample water!

    There’s a day coming, assuming we turn the corner on ecological and economic collapse, when Australia will have so much cheap solar power that they can use it to process materials such as metal ores or to manufacture synthetic lubricants and liquid fuel from scratch…… starting with water and CO2.

    Something tells me that given enough cheap energy, modern day engineers have only just scratched the surface of what’s possible in terms of manufacturing such things as synthetic building materials, super strong plastics, exotic metal alloys, maybe even the mythical flying car.

    Insulation could be made out of some sort of foam that hardens with all the millions of bubbles in it filled with a gas that reacts with the foam…….. so that once it hardens, the gas reacts with the other materials……. creating a vacuum in the pore! An inch or two of insulation made this way would probably be as good as a foot of conventional fiberglass insulation, maybe even better! And it could potentially be strong enough to use it in load bearing applications! Somebody is probably hard at work on this very idea this very minute. Maybe it will be a commercial reality within the next few years.

    Now here’s a thought…… I’m wondering if anybody has ever built a giant catapult like contraption to help commercial air craft get off the ground?

    At first glance, the idea seems ridiculous , but some sort of magnetic or even mechanical ram or towing mechanism built into the runway could apply a hell of a lot of power down the length of the runway, which could maybe be made extra long to allow it more time to operate. This could potentially save a shit load of fuel money , plus it would allow the plane to get airborne with a somewhat larger payload at an equivalent safety margin.

    The last time I was up in DC, some years ago, the planes were taking off as fast as they could line them up at the on ramp to the runway, one right after another, only a minute or less apart.

    1. There’s a day coming, assuming we turn the corner on ecological and economic collapse, when Australia will have so much cheap solar power that they can use it to process materials such as metal ores or to manufacture synthetic lubricants and liquid fuel from scratch…… starting with water and CO2.

       If you watch the 1 hr. 20 min. video linked to in the article, the Professor does delve into that sort of concept, including export of electricity to Indonesia via undersea cable, in addition to the export of hydrogen and/or ammonia to markets like Korea and Japan.

       Now here’s a thought…… I’m wondering if anybody has ever built a giant catapult like contraption to help commercial air craft get off the ground?

       They’re way ahead of you Mac! Check out GABRIEL. I have some criticisms of that concept in that it focuses on a magnetically levitated sled rather than a rail based system. I suppose the advantage of the maglev approach is that all the power can be based on stationary, ground based infrastructure that would levitate and propel a sled carrying the aircraft but I question how practical this will be for a full sized 200-300 passenger aircraft?

       My thoughts on this are that they could use proven, existing rail technology to create a sled that runs on rails built into existing runways. Ideally the sled would accommodate a wide variety of existing aircraft by making connections with the existing landing gear but, I doubt that the aircraft can be accelerated by exerting the thrust on the landing gear so some other arrangement to connect to a suitable point or points on the air frame would have to be devised. My idea is for something that can be implemented now, with feasible modifications to existing aircraft, while sharing existing infrastructure with aircraft that are not equipped to use the system to allow for a phase in period without major disruptions to existing airport infrastructure.

       It appears that GABRIEL will require extensive changes in infrastructure to be implemented across a wide swath of airports as a result of things like the removal of wheels from the landing gear. This means that aircraft set up for this system would only be able to make emergency landings at airports with the right equipment. With the scale of air travel as it is, getting this technology installed at every airport would be a massive undertaking. My idea is for a system that leaves the wheels on the landing gear and makes assisted take off optional. Maybe I’m not thinking big enough!

    2. I think the catapult idea is solid. It’s pretty clear that there can’t be a 1-1 replacement for liquid fuel in airplanes, and takeoff is a huge energy consumer, if really big electric planes are coming, there will have to be some kind of assist.

       EDIT: It’s worth mentioning that airliners are wildly overpowered for cruising. They need the power for takeoff. Maybe another solution would be some kind of carrier pane that assists in the take off and then returns to the airport.

       1. Perhaps bigger electric planes will become more viable if we develop higher energy density batteries. Here is one possible path forward that is currently being explored. I don’t know for sure but I have a hunch there are many others and we can expect breakthroughs on this front in the not too distant future.

          https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190429095058.htm

          To meet the demands of an electric future, new battery technologies will be essential. One option is lithium sulfur batteries, which offer a theoretical energy density more than five times that of lithium ion batteries. Researchers recently unveiled a promising breakthrough for this type of battery, using a catholyte with the help of a graphene sponge.

          … The problem with lithium sulphur batteries so far has been their instability, and consequent low cycle life. Current versions degenerate fast and have a limited life span with an impractically low number of cycles. But in testing of their new prototype, the Chalmers researchers demonstrated an 85% capacity retention after 350 cycles.

       2. Just need my patent pending ‘Catch-n-Release’, aircraft landing and launch system.

          /s

          

       3. No matter what, the energy to lift the plane to the stratosphere has to be expended. Most of the energy is that altitude gain, done quite quickly, not the takeoff run. That is partly why the wing is variable.

          numbers for the CRJ2 regional jet
          Approximate total burn pounds / hour

          Taxi: 700 (Both engines and APU)
          Takeoff: 6000-7000 (depending on temperature, elevation, reduced/full thrust, etc)
          Climb: 6000-3500 (reducing as as altitude increases)
          Cruise: 2500-3000 (depending on altitude/weight/etc… subtract 500 for long range, add 500 for high speed)
          Holding: 1800-2400 (depending on altitude/speed)
          Normal descent: 1500
          Idle descent: 600
          Approach: 2000 (fully configured)

          Since the takeoff takes about 1 minute and cruising altitude is usually reached within 10 minutes, we are not talking about any significant fuel burn compared to long distance or medium distance flight. About 100 pounds or so of fuel down the runway and 600 to 800 pounds to reach altitude. Compared to 2800 per hour of flight.
          Saving 100 pounds to 200 pounds of fuel but having to add structure and weight to the plane to stand the stress of tow, plus higher g forces is not a great idea. Also one more system that can fail and one more system that can ice/freeze over.

          Passenger jets are headed to be much more efficient anyway.

          1. Ouch! What do you make of the figures for savings in the table of the project GABRIEL home page? ( http://www.gabriel-project.eu/ )

             1. You mean GABRIEL the guardian angel?! 😉

             2. At first I thought this was spoof article. Planes with no landing gear, landing on a traveling Barney cart.
                Could get quite interesting trying to land on one in a buffeting crosswind.
                Planes do need to land, it’s mandatory. They need to do it well and have at least a bit of leeway as to exactly where they land.
                Why bother when flying body, low weight new materials and hybrid aircraft will cut CO2 emissions by about 3/4?

                I wonder what the cost of converting over 17,000 airports to maglev barney carts, much of the fleet to no landing gear high tech launch landing systems will be? To gain a few percent efficiency.

                Dumbass idea as far as I am concerned. Won’t be implemented. Pilots and stewards will bail fast, passengers too.

                1. Could get quite interesting trying to land on one in a buffeting crosswind.

                   On this we agree 100%!

                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDUfr-EQqEM
                   How do STOL Pilots Train for Back Country Flying? Carbon Cub FX-3 – Part 1

                2. or this
                   Crosswind with 20 aborted landings
                   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4EQuM_t8Fo

    3. “Insulation could be made out of some sort of foam that hardens with all the millions of bubbles in it filled with a gas that reacts with the foam…….. so that once it hardens, the gas reacts with the other materials……. creating a vacuum in the pore! An inch or two of insulation made this way would probably be as good as a foot of conventional fiberglass insulation, maybe even better! And it could potentially be strong enough to use it in load bearing applications! Somebody is probably hard at work on this very idea this very minute. Maybe it will be a commercial reality within the next few years.”

       Somebody is doing this:

       https://www.cement.org/cement-concrete-applications/paving/buildings-structures/concrete-homes/building-systems-for-every-need/autoclaved-aerated-concrete

       1. Hi Eric, and thanks for the link.

          This is obviously a big advance in terms of conventional air entrained concrete, which is most often simply poured, rather than cast into finished structural components, and this is the first detailed info I have seen on it.

          But I’m retired, and no longer keep up with building trades or lots of other things that used to be important to me.

          It’s not quite what I had in mind, since even this new type air entrained concrete is only a so so insulating material at best.

          A foam made out of some sort of polymer with vacuum bubbles in it would REALLY get the job done, as insulation, if such a material can be manufactured economically, and I’m willing to bet that somebody will be selling something along this line within the next few years at the latest.

28. Beto O’Rourke Releases $5 Trillion Climate Change Proposal

    Parts of the proposal are vague. It says, for instance, that Mr. O’Rourke would “work with Congress to enact a legally enforceable standard” requiring net-zero emissions by 2050 and that this standard would “send a clear price signal to the market.” In theory, that could mean a carbon tax, a cap-and-trade system or something else entirely, but Mr. O’Rourke’s campaign would not commit to any specific policy.

    • New regulations, such as building efficiency standards and hazardous waste limits;

    • Ending government fossil-fuel leases and requiring that all federal permitting decisions “fully account for climate costs and community impacts

    • Reducing methane emissions from oil and natural gas facilities and eliminating hydrofluorocarbons, which are more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide

    • $5 trillion over 10 years for, among other things, clean-energy research, infrastructure and extreme weather preparations.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/29/us/politics/beto-orourke-climate-change.html

    1. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/04/29/renewable-energy-will-surpass-coal-in-april-may/

       For the first time ever, the combination of wind, solar, and hydro juice will out perform coal.

       But this is for now only a temporary blip, due to hydro being at its best in the spring, and some coal plants routinely down for maintenance at this time of year, when they are least needed.

       It won’t be too many more years before renewables routinely provide more electricity than coal.

29. Tesla Model 3 Owner Is Free From Clutches Of Portugal’s Oil Crisis

    This Model 3 owner doesn’t have to worry about being stranded or waiting in long lines like others.

    Portugal is experiencing a serious oil crisis as fuel truck drivers are on strike, hundreds of gas stations have been closed and the situation is worsening. Even flight operations are being affected during this time of crisis.

    This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX (which also makes aftermarket Tesla accessories). Authored by Iqtidar Ali. The opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily our own at InsideEVs.

    A Tesla Model 3 owner recorded the footage of Portugal’s dire situation where hundreds of ICE vehicles are seen stationary on the roads of Lisbon, waiting for ‘gas’ to arrive — massive gas anxiety has struck the country while Tesla and other electric vehicles shine like a star.

    Things like this are free marketing for EVs. People will be curious about these cars that are whizzing past the lines waiting for gas and when they become aware that such creatures are available in their area, they will want one too!

    1. Time for Portugal to take a FF holiday. Then up it’s renewable-EV plan to take the wind out of the fossil fuel industry. Portugal has a long way to go to build up it’s EV fleet. This union dispute where 700 truck drivers can disable a country may be key to bringing EV’s up to the 1 percent mark.

    2. massive gas anxiety has struck the country while Tesla and other electric vehicles shine like a star.

       Hahaha! A bit of well deserved schadenfreude over the old EV range anxiety fallacy, which is still part of the FF misinformation campaign to this very day! So now how about that range anxiety over an empty gas tank with NO possibility of filling it?! Imagine what things will look like when peak oil really starts to hit.

       BTW this makes it even better!

       According to the Model 3 owner:

       Actually, in Portugal, my electricity bill is around 68% renewables. But you can actually subscribe to a Green Plan where all the energy is 100% renewable. We’ve had a few days a year completely run on renewables.

       Hahaha!

       Edit: I don’t normally link to Watts Up With That but for a little added comic relief you can read this:

       https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/30/ipcc-demands-peak-oil-now/

       IPCC Demands Peak Oil Now!!!

       …So long as the demand for oil & gas remains stable and/or grows, oil & gas companies will continue to invest capital into oil & gas fields because… drum roll, please… THEY ARE OIL & GAS COMPANIES!!!… It’s a fossil fueled world and will remain so for many decades to come.

       The comments are pure comedy gold!

    3. I know it would inconvenience the hell out of a couple of hundred million of my fellow Yankees, not to mention any remaining friends we may still have in other countries, but a nice hot little war that keeps the supertankers in port for six months would is precisely the sort of PEARL HARBOR WAKE UP EVENT that’s needed to get the attention of Joe and Suzy Sixpack.

       A few hundred to a few tens of thousands of people, maybe more, would die hard violent deaths as the result of such a short hot war….. but my hard nosed old farmers perspective is that you don’t lose anything, in the long term, as the result of such events, on the farm or in the world, because they force you to face up to reality, and take such precautionary measures as are possible, thereby potentially saving many times as much trouble later on.

       A hot oil war five or ten years from now might well escalate into something that could be credibly referred to as WWIII, and it might go chemical, nuclear, biological.

       The biggest lasting consequence of such a war NOW might well be to convince the public at large that electric cars and renewable electricity infrastructure are literally priceless assets, worth as much a million men in uniform and the trillions of dollars worth of hardware they need to defend our country, or take it to our enemies, real or perceived, in order to maintain our access to imported oil.

       Nothing less than such a figurative or metaphorical muggers brick will ever get the attention of Joe and Suzy…….. and Joe and Suzy outnumber people such as the ones who hang out here by about a thousand to one.

30. Wind, solar push South Australia prices below zero for almost six hours

    A combination of strong output from the state’s wind farms and its growing solar resources, coupled with low demand, pushed wholesale electricity prices in South Australia into negative territory for nearly six hours on Tuesday.

    The major negative pricing event came as the combination of large scale wind and utility-scale solar, along with the output from the 1GW of rooftop solar, contributed more than 85 per cent of the state’s generation for the whole period.

    For most of the time the output from wind and solar covered more than 100 per cent of demand, which – being a mild, Autumn day – was relatively low.

    Another example of a phenomenon that is the exception rather than the rule theses days but should eventually become the norm. This makes four such examples in the last couple of weeks with Germany , California and the UK experiencing somewhat similar events over the Easter weekend.

31. It can be interesting to contemplate how currently available off the shelf technologies, could be put together in previously unimaginable ways, to provide outside of the box solutions to some of our most pressing problems.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/could-air-conditioning-fix-climate-change/

    Could Air-Conditioning Fix Climate Change?
    Researchers propose a carbon-neutral “synthetic oil well” on every rooftop

    Cool! 😉

    1. Maybe that can be added to the 2020 presidential campaign: A carbon refinery in every home.

32. ROFL!

    Well, assuming that such technology actually worked, and let’s just say I’m more than a little skeptical… In a world where everything runs on electricity powered by renewables and petrochemicals have been substituted by biochemicals, who would still buy the synthetic oil? The Saudis and the Russians? 😉

    1. Hi Fred,

       For what it’s worth, my personal opinion is that any and almost all talk about CO2 capture from the atmosphere is nothing more than techno dreaming, amply fertilized by fossil fuel industry propagandists, the sort of idiocy that’s so readily swallowed by such people as are functionally technologically illiterate.

       Sure you can cram a nuclear reactor and electrical generation plant into a submarine…… if you spend enough money.

       But there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell, not within the foreseeable future at least, that capturing CO2 from the atmosphere will cost less than ten, twenty , fifty, a hundred or a THOUSAND times as much as simply reorganizing our daily affairs so as to quit burning so much fossil fuel.

       Every thing we can do to increase fuel efficiency of transportation, reduce the NEED for transportation, better insulate our buildings, etc, will pay big dividends in not only reducing CO2 levels but also SAVING money on fuels, instead of spending it on such idiotic techno porn undertakings.

       Having said this much…… people in the computer biz fifty years ago mostly laughed at the people who were big enough idiots that they dreamed of affordable personal computers, lol.

       And again having said this much, the article in THIS case does present both sides of the question, pointing out the difficulties ( overwhelming by comparison to the potential benefits) .

33. IslandBoy. Cargo on a small scale is very important. Here is one of my favorites, in case you havn’t seen it-
    The Deliverator
    https://www.arcimoto.com/deliverator/

    I want one.

    1. Thank SKY DADDY for the loophole in vehicle regulations that makes it possible to build cars and trucks with only three wheels……… meaning they can be built to motorcycle standards rather than car and truck standards.

       This makes it possible to build such vehicles as the Deliverator. Otherwise they would cost so much as to be economically impossible undertakings.

       The GOVERNMENT MOMMY CULTURE is a hell of a pitfall that is in some instances causing a lot more problems than it fixes.

       Sure very light vehicles such as the Deliverator are more dangerous by far than a conventional vehicle…….. to the driver or any passenger in it. But the flip side is that people who cannot afford conventional cars and trucks do without…….. and sometimes that means they die too…….. for lack of the extra productivity made possible by such light vehicles or dangerous tools that the safety mommies would outlaw, if they could.

       My chainsaw is a very dangerous tool indeed…….. but not so dangerous as an axe, or so dangerous as pneumonia brought on by a lack of firewood needed to keep warm……. or enough food…….. there’s a balance that must be struck between staying warm and eating…….. more time getting firewood means less time for growing food, etc.

    2. Noted. I had not seen it. I plan to conclude this series with a bit on “coming attractions”. I will need to include this. Thanks.

34. Even a stopped clock is right at least once a day, lol.

    And while it’s so rare a thing that it’s newsworthy when the Trump administration comes down on the right side of any question, it DOES happen occasionally.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877

35. Your future is being built right now by the biggest emitter of GHG and pollution on the planet. Pollution without borders and without limits.

    Why Is China Placing A Global Bet On Coal?
    Edward Cunningham, a specialist on China and its energy markets at Harvard University, tells NPR that China is building or planning more than 300 coal plants in places as widely spread as Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt and the Philippines.
    https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal

    How China’s Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress
    China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a colossal infrastructure plan that could transform the economies of nations around the world. But with its focus on coal-fired power plants, the effort could obliterate any chance of reducing emissions and tip the world into catastrophic climate change.
    https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress

    Getting the rest of the world involved in the industrial development system is a fine plan to make money and a horrible plan for the world.

    Enjoy the warmth.

    1. Yeah, if they implement their plan as stated in the two links you provide, then the world and most life as we know it is fucked.

       From the Yale link:

       Over the last decade, in an effort to reverse coal’s impacts, the government instituted a program of closure of smaller, older plants and investment in new, advanced power stations. The share of coal in the mix began to drop, giving rise to the hope that consumption in a country that has swallowed half the world’s coal each year since 2011 was on a downward path. Today, China’s leadership has embedded “eco-civilization” in the Communist Party’s constitution, as the clean, green principle on which it is planning the next phase of China’s economic development.

       Now, as far as I can tell, the Chinese are neither particularly stupid nor suicidal. So how is it possible to reconcile this level of cognitive dissonance and denial with the fact that if China does indeed implement such a plan world wide, then China and its people are just as fucked as everyone else.

       To me, the mythological supremacy of the Nation State as being the ultimate provider for needs of the people, has to be one of the most virulent and dangerous viral memes still infecting humanity in the 21st century. It is the root cause of self inflicted economic damage such as Brexit, all manner of trade wars, idiotic ideas such as building walls, MAGA, living in the Czarist past a la Putin, etc… etc… I could create a very long list. The ecosystems of the world upon which all of humanity depend on for survival do not suddenly stop at any national borders, global problems such as climate change can never be dealt with at any national level.

       So at the end of the day, people all over the world can wear their own, make my nation, (insert name of any nation here) great again, wave their stupid little national flags, rail against other nations as their mortal enemies. Meanwhile the forces of nature will just readjust the system as a whole and make most national borders completely irrelevant!

       1. “Now, as far as I can tell, the Chinese are neither particularly stupid nor suicidal. So how is it possible to reconcile this level of cognitive dissonance and denial with the fact that if China does indeed implement such a plan world wide, then China and its people are just as fucked as everyone else.”

          Have you considered the ramifications of China attempting to deindustrialize quickly?
          Have you also considered that maybe the government leaders have much of the best information available and realize that any real attempt at decarbonization and deindustrialization is probably too late anyway so not really worth pursuing?
          Have you considered that there are several billion people trying to improve their lifestyles and wealth. China being the implementer of that, or at least appearing to do so, puts them in the leadership position and a strong one.
          They will make money and increase power on the way up as well as on the way down.

          The fake altruism of the west is also so flawed, for many reasons I will not discuss now, that possibly the Asians see through a lot of it.
          Having the western world weakened is not a bad thing for them, the western countries will probably weaken first, where it counts and are not capable of fast changes to meet new problems. The western world is convenient in that it provides a lot of technical advances but that is tempered by it’s being very dangerous.

          I think a lot of this would be clear to people if they viewed the west through the eyes and minds of the ROW. The perspective changes a lot.

    2. Gone Fishing, see my commentary in the new EPM thread I just posted. In the US regulators are already turning down proposals for new NG plants, on the basis of concerns that they will become stranded assets. Tony Seba recently (April 9) made a presentation at the Future of Power conference in Toronto, Canada. I am hoping that it will soon be available on YouTube as he seems to be getting more strident in his assertions that, with respect to FF powered electricity generation, “any new investment is already obsolete”. See this Tweet.

       In my neck of the woods, the Chinese have proposed coal plants to go along with developments and have been solidly rebuffed to date.

       1. I vote for Tony Seba and Amory Lovins to be emperors of global energy. Once they are in control, it will all change quickly.

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