A Guest Post by Islandboy
The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on Jun 25th, with data for April 2018. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date.
In April, electricity produced from Coal was 73,489 Gwh representing 24.32% of the total. This is the third lowest amount over the period for which data is available, with only March and April of 2016 being lower, both in terms of the absolute amount of electricity produced and the percentage contribution to the total. The trend of more electricity being produced from Natural Gas than from Coal continued, with Natural Gas producing 33.09% of the total. In the thirty three months since July of 2015, only six months saw coal contributing more to the total than Natural Gas. Prior to April 2015, there had never been more electricity produced by Natural Gas than Coal in the US.
The absolute contribution from Solar continued to climb from it’s low in December rising from 7,513 GWh in March 8,833 to GWh, with the corresponding percentage contribution climbing to a new record of almost 3%, 2.92% as opposed to 2.35% in March. Nuclear power generated 59,087 GWh, 10.6% less than it did in March and despite the decrease in total generation, the percentage contribution to the total decreased to 19.55% from 20.95% in March. This year, the contribution from All Renewables outstripped Nuclear for the first time in April as opposed to March in 2017 with the decrease in the contribution from Nuclear by 1.4% as opposed to the increase in the contribution from All Renewables by 1.69%, resulting in a difference of 0.98%. The amount of electricity generated by Wind decreased by about 2%, (518 GWh) but, as a result of the decreased total generation, the percentage contribution actually increased from 8.53% to 8.85%. The contribution from Hydro increased 1,728 Gwh (7.68%) in absolute terms with the decrease in total generation resulting in the percentage contribution increasing to 9.14% from 8.09% in March. The combined contribution from Wind and Solar increased to 11.78% from 10.87% in March, the highest contribution from those two sources combined on record. Consequently the contribution from Non-Hydro Renewables also increased to 12.89% from 12.25% also a new record. The contribution of zero emission and carbon neutral sources, that is, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, landfill gas and other biomass increased to 41.58% from 41.3% in March and 0.17% short of the record 41.75% contribution set in April 2017.
The graph below helps to illustrate how the changes in absolute production affect the percentage contribution from the various sources.
The chart below shows the total monthly generation at utility scale facilities by year versus the contribution from solar. The left hand scale is for the total generation, while the right hand scale is for solar output and has been deliberately set to exaggerate the solar output as a means of assessing it’s potential to make a meaningful contribution to the midsummer peak. The scale on the y axes has been adjusted to display TWh instead of Gwh as suggested by Dennis to make the comparison a little easier. In March 2018 the output from solar at 8,833 GWh, was 3.8 times what it was four years ago in April 2014. If the summer output continues to follow recent trends, close to 12,000 GWh should be generated in a single month some time this coming summer.
The graph below shows the monthly capacity additions for 2018. In April Solar added 5.14 percent and and Natural Gas contributed 94.38 percent of new capacity for a joint contribution of 99.52 percent. No new capacity from Wind was registered in April. 10 MW of new capacity came from Batteries (0.2%) with another 6 MW (0.12%) coming Wood Waste Biomass and 1.9 MW (0.04%) coming from Petroleum Liquids. A new “Technology” appeared in the additions for April, “All Other”. On closer examination the plant in question was the new Cove Point LNG Terminal in Maryland. An internet search turned up an “Environmental Assessment for the Cove Point Liquefaction Project” that contains the following:
“The proposed facilities associated with the LNG Terminal include the following:
one LNG liquefaction train consisting of gas treatment equipment, natural gas fired turbine driven refrigerant compressors, waste heat recovery systems, fire and gas detection and safety systems, and control systems;
additional power generation including waste heat driven steam turbine generators and other electrical accessories to supplement the existing on site power generation”
This leads to the conclusion that this new category is in fact ultimately fueled by Natural Gas.
In April 2018 the total added capacity reported was 4,991.4 MW, almost sixty percent more than the 3,256.6 MW added in April 2017.
The chart below shows the monthly capacity retirements so far for 2018. In April, like in January, almost all the retired capacity was coal fired. Of the 1193.3 MW of capacity that was retired, 99.56 percent (1188 MW) was a result of the retirement of two units at Wisconsin Electric Power Co.’s Pleasant Prairie facility. The remainder of the retirements, fueled by Petroleum Liquids, were the result of the retirement of two units totaling 700 kW in Alaska and a 4.6 MW unit in the City of Macon, Missouri.
Following the report on the edition of the EPM with data for March, there was some discussion about coal consumption for the production of electricity. At the request of peakoilbarrel.com member Shyam, I am including a table of the top ten states in order of coal consumption for electricity production.
The discussion about coal consumption data by state piqued my curiosity and I took some time to do a couple of time series charts by state for coal consumption, one for monthly consumption starting from January 2017 and the other for annual consumption starting from 2010. I could not find any data on coal consumption for electricity generation by state before 2010. I also did a monthly consumption chart by Census Division starting from January 2017. Apart from a general trend of declining coal use all around, I did not spot anything of particular interest from the charts. Since others may observe things that I might have missed, I am including the three charts below.
Nice primer on electricity and relevant units of measure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKcTmjZM7Jg
What the Watt!? | Fully Charged Live 2018 Talk 7
Hmmm. coal is fading, natural gas is rising, wind is struggling and solar is moving along. At the rate of coal burning descent, coal power would reach zero in 34 years.
The U.S. installed 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity in Q1 2018 to reach 55.9 gigawatts (GW) of total installed capacity, enough to power 10.7 million American homes. This represents a 13% increase year-over-year. Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years, and by 2023, over 14 GW of PV capacity will be installed annually. SEIA
May 2, 2018
WASHINGTON — Strong demand for affordable, reliable wind energy drove a busy first quarter for new U.S. wind farm announcements. Wind power’s low cost and stable energy prices motivated utility and non-utility customers to sign contracts for 3,500 megawatts (MW) of U.S. wind capacity in the first quarter of 2018, a high water mark in recent years, according to a new report released today by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). The U.S. Wind Industry First Quarter 2018 Market Report also reveals 5,523 MW in first quarter wind project announcements, adding to a total of 33,449 MW of wind power capacity in the combined construction and advanced development pipeline.
AWEA
Globally wind power reached 539 GW installed with 52.6 GW added in 2017. 60 GW is expected to be added in 2018.
Why do people keep predicting the imminent demise of coal? Mega mines doing well in Australia, etc. Maybe I read the wrong press reports? Maybe I should pick up a pair of those cool rose colored glasses that are all the rage?
“World coal production increased by 105 million tonnes of oil equivalent or 3.2%, the fastest rate of growth since 2011. Production rose by 56 mtoe (3.6%) in China and 23 mtoe (6.9%) in the US. Interestingly, the increase in US production came despite a further fall in domestic consumption, with US coal producers instead increasing exports to Asia.”
BTW “India’s coal demand rose 7.5 percent to 900 million tonnes in 2017/18. Coal is expected to remain India’s main energy source for the next three decades, even as the country encourages the use of renewable power generation.”
https://in.reuters.com/article/india-coal-demand/indias-coal-demand-rose-7-5-percent-to-900-million-tonnes-in-2017-18-minister-idINKBN1K81MC
Why do people keep predicting the imminent demise of coal?
Because the numbers for global coal consumption are actually starting to trend down.
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
.
Meanwhile, Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani on Tuesday gave the final investment approval for the Indian conglomerate’s controversy-hit 21.7 billion dollars coal mine project in Australia which had hit several roadblocks over environmental concerns.
“I am proud to announce the project has Final Investment Decision approval which marks the official start of one of the largest single Infrastructure — and job creating — developments in Australia’s history,”
BTW: This project could be a coup de grâce for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.
BTW: This project could be a coup de grâce for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.
Sigh! Sorry to let you in on a little secret Doug, The Great Barrier Reef is already toast regardless!
As for Gautam Adani hopefully he will eventually be tied to a stake in the Australian desert outback where the temperature can hit 120°F and left to slowly roast as punishment for his crimes against humanity. But that won’t save the corals!
“….be tied to a stake in the Australian desert outback where the temperature can hit 120°F…”
Dear me, that’s not very Christian Fred. No wait, stake burning (and death by boiling) is very Christian isn’t it?
I was looking at the long term trend for coal in the US which fell from about 1 billion tons/year to about 0.85.
Sure, with Asia pushing coal and coal plant building the global burn could rise, plateau or at least stay fairly high through the century. Even the US could bring it back as natural gas supplies dwindle.
But I must disagree on the demise of coal. In fact our efforts to mine and burn coal brings it back to life as the biosphere gets fed more carbon (until it gets crushed by global warming).
Good question. I started composing this response at about mid day July 18 but, my internet went down before I finished it. I have resorted to backup internet access through my smart phone only to see that Doug has found something interesting that might take him off POB for a little while.
I have to engage in conjecture here since I have nothing to back this up. I think this could be put down to momentum or hysteresis effects. By this I mean that people, governments and utilities are so used to the status quo that, they keep doing the same sort of things they have always done despite signs that things are changing. Let me use an example from my own back yard.
The utility on my island is in the final stages of construction of a new combined cycle gas turbine plant to be fueled with natural gas, shipped to the island as LNG supplied by a US operation, New Fortress Energy. The introduction of natural gas to the island by way of LNG shipments has also been used to justify an investment by the local campus of the regional University of the West Indies, in a co-generation plant that will supposedly produce electricity, heating and cooling for the campus in an effort to reduce crippling electricity bills. The government owned municipal bus operators in the two cities are also investigating the use of LNG for the bus fleet in an effort to reduce costs, including the cost of pilferage of diesel fuel. One of the advantages of natural gas being that it is harder to steal and transport in addition to having less of a market.
Regular readers here will know that I don’t think any of these investments are good ones since, I buy into the projections made by Tony Seba that :
1) Solar plus storage will soon be the lowest cost source of electricity, particularly for tropical islands like Hawaii, Puerto Rico and my own home, Jamaica.
2)Battery powered electric vehicles will displace vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2025, give or take a couple of years.
Recent trends support Seba’s projections more than those made by just about every body else, in that just about everybody else’s projections are starting to look very conservative. The IEA’s projections for solar adoption are a demonstrably sick joke. The thing is that these conservative projections reinforce the thoughts people, governments and utilities have fixed in their heads that, the transition could not possibly happen as fast as Seba is projecting. Just recently I was watching a youtube video with a talking head saying that electric cars should start dominating the market sometime between 2030 and 2040, in contrast Seba is saying it will be game over by 2025! So, people continue to buy ICE powered cars and transport operators continue to buy diesel trucks and buses and utilities continue to buy gas turbines and coal power plants, thinking that BAU is going to continue for another couple of decades at least.
This means that for the mean time, as these plants are built, consumption of the fuel they use will rise and will continue to rise until the cheaper alternatives start to displace them. In a couple of markets though, the writing is already on the wall. The trends for coal in the lead post show that it is clearly in decline in the US. This decline is now being driven almost entirely by economic factors, lower cost natural gas and increasingly lower cost wind and solar. Head on over to reneweconomy.com.au/ and take a look at the news from Australia. Coal still rules there but, it is under serious threat as renewable sources are growing fast, very fast. It seems that in Australia it is only those who are benefiting most from the exploitation of fossil fuels that are interested in BAU and it would appear that they have the Australian federal government in their pockets but, the tide (and many state governments) seems solidly in support of renewables. Australia is the developed nation in which solar plus storage makes sense. They are still getting a fair amount of solar in the middle of their “winter”.
I am hoping that by 2020 at the latest we will begin to see the effects of the transition to renewables on FF consumption. Seba is saying that by sometime in the 2025-2030 time frame FF powered electricity plants will become stranded assets. What that means is that all these new FF powered plants being built will have no takers for the power they produce, since they will be competing with generators that have no fuel costs. See Seba’s Generation On Demand (GOD) parity for his description of what can happen in terms the cost of solar on location falling below the cost of transmission to said location. Also look at the following article from RenewEconomy.com.au:
India doubles down on renewables as coal left idle by cheaper solar
In my neck of the woods I have been trying to warn policy makers and anyone else that will listen that, the new natural gas plant will run into serious problems with competition from solar by 2025, long before the loans taken to finance it’s construction are repaid. I’m sure there are quite a few people around here that think I’ve gone off the deep end and am in need of professional psychiatric help! As the costs of solar pv technology continue to decline, we will see.
On the EV front, up to the end of 2017, I was aware of five or six Nissan Leafs being in the island. I just saw a new Leaf this last Saturday evening with no license plates yet, joining one other additional car and two eNV200 vans that I have seen, for a cumulative total of ten Nissan BEVs in the island and we’re only half way through 2018! One of the ten is one I am working on acquiring and if successful, I shall not be keeping it’s electric underpinnings secret. On the contrary I have plans to emblazon it with large graphics, proclaiming it’s zero emission status and the fact that it can be powered by electricity from renewable sources. I feel my fellow islanders are woefully unaware that such creatures even exist and feel they need to be made aware of the coming tsunami of EVs.
In the meantime the amount of ICE powered vehicles being imported into the island under BAU, hugely overwhelms the amount of BEVs that are trickling in, as is obvious when observing the deluge of ICE powered vehicles that adorn dealerships all over the island. Seba also has much to say about the fate of these legacy “assets” when the transition to BEVs gets underway.
After rambling on for so long, I hope I have provide some insight as to why FF consumption and carbon emissions are still trending up, despite all the news about renwables and EVs.
IMHO EVs will take much longer to penetrate countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, much of Latin America and other, less developed, countries. Why? They will end up as dumping grounds for IfCE vehicles from countries such as the USA. As EVs take over, there will be less and less of a market for used vehicles so, as prices drop, they will be shunted elsewhere. At the same time newer models will also flood the second hand market so that recent models will become a bargain in other countries slowing the introduction of EVs as price is more critical. A very cheap, used car will be more attractive than a new EV. Note that I said slow, not stop.
NAOM
WELCOME TO THE MEGHALAYAN AGE – A NEW PHASE IN HISTORY
“The official history of Earth has a new chapter – and we are in it. Geologists have classified the last 4,200 years as being a distinct age in the story of our planet. They are calling it the Meghalayan Age, the onset of which was marked by a mega-drought that crushed a number of civilisations worldwide. The International Chronostratigraphic Chart, the famous diagram depicting the timeline for Earth’s history (seen on many classroom walls) will be updated.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44868527
Meanwhile,
STATE OF THE POLAR OCEANS 2018 PUBLISHED
Scientists know that the polar oceans control global temperatures, and have absorbed more than 90% of all the extra heat trapped in the Earth system since the industrial revolution began. These oceans are warming significantly. Summer temperatures in the Arctic Ocean now 2–3°C warmer than the 1982–2010 mean, with a corresponding reduction in summer sea ice extent of nearly 50% from the late 1970s to 2017.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-state-polar-oceans-published.html#jCp
AMAP
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017
The Arctic’s climate is shifting to a new state
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases are driving
widespread changes in the Arctic’s sensitive climate,
hydrological, and ecological systems. Since 2011, downward
trends have continued in sea ice thickness and extent, land
ice volume, and spring snow cover extent and duration, while
near-surface permafrost has continued to warm.
With each additional year of data, it becomes increasingly clear
that the Arctic as we know it is being replaced by a warmer,
wetter, and more variable environment. is transformation has
profound implications for people, resources, and ecosystems
worldwide.
While SWIPA 2017 includes many important new findings,
summarized below, three points in particular deserve special
emphasis:
• e Arctic Ocean could be largely free of sea ice in summer
as early as the late 2030s, only two decades from now.
• e recent recognition of additional melt processes affecting
Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets suggests
that low-end projections of global sea-level rise made by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
are underestimated.
• Changes in the Arctic may be affecting weather in midlatitudes,
even influencing the Southeast Asian monsoon.
https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Snow-Water-Ice-and-Permafrost-in-the-Arctic-SWIPA-2017/1610
A little perspective,
LIFE ON EARTH KEPT TO DARKNESS FOR MUCH OF HISTORY
“Tiny creatures that lived in the dark—either underground or below the sea floor—were the dominant life forms on Earth for much of the planet’s history. Microscopic organisms, including bacteria, were the most abundant forms of life on Earth from about 2 billion years ago until 400 million years ago, when plants began to spread across the land.”
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-life-earth-darkness-history.html#jCp
3D-PRINTED GUN BLUEPRINTS GIVEN GO-AHEAD BY US GOVERNMENT
Maybe I’ll get my Grandson to run me off a few plastic Glocks. Oh yeah, Glocks are already plastic. A plastic AK 47 then? Or a bazooka? Bazookas are cool.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44871588
For the mathematically inclined or — this is Super Cool. If you don’t hear from me for the next week or two it’ll be because I’ve been trying to apply this stuff to a problem associated with neutron stars. Wish me luck, or more likely, bid me good riddance.
A NEW APPROACH FOR NARROWING DOWN HUGE CALCULATIONS BY FOCUSING ON A SINGLE, PREDICTIVE PARAMETER
“We call this approach the eigenvector continuation – you find the path and continue along it in small steps. The eigenvector is the property of the system that you’re looking at. It’s a way to narrow down huge computations to a smooth predictable computation while keeping errors at bay.”
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-approach-narrowing-huge-focusing-parameter.html#jCp
Eigenvector continuation crossed my radar a few months ago on one of my sojurns through Youtube lectures on AI. It was considerably above and beyond my pay grade. Can’t find a link at the moment
However you might want to read his paper too.
https://theorie.ikp.physik.tu-darmstadt.de/hirschegg/2018/talks/Fri/Lee.pdf
New results in lattice effective field theory:
Eigenvector continuation
Cheers and good luck with simplifying your calculations!
Thanks (once again) Fred. That paper looks like a real gem but will take quite awhile to completely digest.
Cheers,
I spent many years doing high precision graphics and got into all kinds of adventures when storing images both as vector images and pixels images with all the attendant resolution and associated thumbnail storage issues.
I’m only a layman but still curious about how different AI algorithms process, store, access, and learn to recognize digital images.
That’s why I was exploring the Youtube space dealing with AI image recognition. And came across the connection to eigenvector continuation in machine learning and image recognition.
From the paper:
We prove this empirical observation using analytic function theory and the principles of analytic continuation. Since the eigenvector trajectory is a low-dimensional manifold embedded ina large space, we can find the desired eigenvector using methods similar to image recognition in machine learning.
Cheers!
Speaking of massive amounts of digital imaging I just signed up for a free account to Queryable Planet.
https://www/planet.com
https://www.ted.com/talks/will_marshall_the_mission_to_create_a_searchable_database_of_earth_s_surface
This is truly awesome stuff! It really blew my mind. I may spend a lot less time here while I start exploring this live database and learn how to get information out of it!!!!
What if you could search the surface of the Earth the same way you search the internet? Will Marshall and his team at Planet use the world’s largest fleet of satellites to image the entire Earth every day. Now they’re moving on to a new project: using AI to index all the objects on the planet over time — which could make ships, trees, houses and everything else on Earth searchable, the same way you search Google. He shares a vision for how this database can become a living record of the immense physical changes happening across the globe. “You can’t fix what you can’t see,” Marshall says. “We want to give people the tools to see change and take action.”
Solar and wind are sadly having little impact in reducing China’s coal consumption.
Despite adding record amounts of solar
https://renewablesnow.com/news/china-adds-record-5306-gw-of-solar-in-2017-602234/
and wind
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/the-wind-industry-added-more-than-52-gigawatts-of-power-in-2017-and-china-led-the-way.html
China coal consumption increased last year and according to the Chinese Energy department is heading for new highs
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-Plans-Record-Natural-Gas-Coal-Production-In-2018.html
These figures are astounding and depressing, China installed more wind and solar in 2 years than the entire United Kingdom power grid. Yet coal consumption went up by over 50 million tonnes last year and on top of that gas consumption increased dramatically also.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Natural-Gas-Consumption-Soars.html
Those who hope that wind and solar will prevent global warming simply do not understand how much consumption is growing in China, India, and other industrializing countries.
Peter said”Solar and wind are sadly having little impact in reducing China’s coal consumption.”
Peter, does addition and subtraction escape you? P(coal) +P(gas) +P(solar)+P(wind) > P(coal) +P(gas). Where P is the power produced. Simple huh?
“Those who hope that wind and solar will prevent global warming simply do not understand how much consumption is growing in China, India, and other industrializing countries.”
Peter, global warming is ongoing and cannot be prevented since it is already happening. Do you prevent a disease after already contracting it?
>> “Do you prevent a disease after already contracting it?”<<
Not only that–signs and symptoms have started showing themselves.
My analogy is what happens in my orchard. Pesticides must be used as prophylactics.
There are trunk borers, scab fungi, apple maggots, etc. to deal with. If I wait until signs of damage show up before I spray, it is way, way too late.
Your ‘orchard’ is an artifice, a kind of unreality or delusion-zone, decoupled from nature, maybe a little like a zoo. A fake of sorts, like the pseudoeconomic model you appear to have it operate within.
Trunk borers, maggots and the like feed birds and other animals and in doing so, make meaningful attachments and associations in the web of life. Take out enough of them, perhaps by having enough artifices and the web comes apart– which looks to be what’s happening.
FYI, Peter is an anti renewables troll! He isn’t interested in facts or simple arithmetic. His goal is to sow discord and annoy people with clickbait. I placed him on ignore a while back.
>> I placed him on ignore a while back. <<
Me too.
GoneFishing
I did actually say because China power consumption is increasing so much. You are in such a hurry to deny facts that you stumble over yourself like a drunk.
For the rest of you, all these links describe China’s increase in coal consumption over the last couple of years and also it’s considerable increase in gas burning. Sorry of facts upset you all.
Just stick you fingers in your ears and sing la la la very loud. The facts will go away if you do it long enough.
>> You are in such a hurry to deny facts that you stumble over yourself like a drunk. <<
Yep–
Me too. I don’t see his posts.
You are right Fred , they flock together and don’t understand simple concepts, so not worth the effort. Better to let the comment section fill up with villager BS.
Oh please! See my post further up on hysteresis effects. Do you really think that coal burning and carbon emissions declines happen the minute new wind or solar plants are commissioned? It takes a while for the markets to adjust to the presence of the new cheaper sources of electricity and there can be tricky little things like PPAs that oblige utilities to buy from existing suppliers even if their prices are higher. Eventually you will see news like some I highlighted in the previous report on the EPM:
Electric power sector consumption of fossil fuels at lowest level since 1994.
and this:
Renewables Push California Carbon Emissions Below 1990 Levels. UK Emissions Fall Even Further.
The next shoe to drop will likely be Australia since:
Australia: Fully-commissioned utility-scale PV capacity to double by July
and
Australia has 35GW of solar farms in development pipeline
Bear in mind that 35GW is about 5GW more than Australia’s peak demand and that there is already more than 7GW of mostly small scale, rooftop solar in place in Australia. In addition if one heads over to https://opennem.org.au/#/all-regions , one will find that Australia has enough hydro to occasionally generate just over 4GW and enough wind to hit about 3.5GW, so increasing amounts of solar are bound to put the squeeze on coal, gas and their attendant carbon emissions eventually.
China installed some 53GW of solar last year 2017. How soon do you expect the effects of that to show up in the data? Did you really expect that to affect 2017 data in a significant way? I’d wager that the effects WILL show up in the 2018 data.
For India there’s this:
India doubles down on renewables as coal left idle by cheaper solar
At a time when Berkshire Hathaway’s Nevada Power is setting new record low US$24/MWh solar tariffs in the US, India continues to see the benefits of record low renewable energy tariffs.
In the last two months India has seen 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of wind tenders completed at record low US$36-37/MWh tariffs (zero indexation for 25 years, like Nevada above).
On the back of this, the Indian Energy Minister R.K. Singh has lifted India’s renewable plan from 175 GW to a new mission of 227 GW by 2022.
It is no co-incidence the largest import coal plant in India, Adani’s relatively modern 4.6GW Mundra facility, is idle, unable to compete. Our conclusion is clear – stranded asset risks rise every time new record low renewables tariffs are announced.
Below is the lead graphic showing India’s Renewable Vs Thermal Power Capacity Additions (MW) from the article quoted above. It sort of demonstrates what I said further up on hysteresis effects. The 80GW of thermal capacity built between 2012 and 2016 is going to increase emissions in the short term but, the article refers to India’s renewable plan being increased from 175 GW to a new mission of 227 GW by 2022. Do you believe that renewables in India have no chance of changing their emissions any time soon? (by soon I mean between now and 2022)
Do the prospects of all this reneweable depress you? Do you worry about the fortunes of people like Mr. Adani? If so, tough luck, the march of renewables is picking up speed as has been projected by Tony Seba and there’s not much you, I, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Rupert Murdoch, Charles Koch, Gautam Adani or anybody else will be able to do about it. It is a matter of time before emissions start to fall worldwide.
In other news:
Tesla Model 3 Cumulative Production Exceeds 50,000
Tesla Model 3 cumulative production exceeded 50,000, according to estimations by Bloomberg.
Though output decreased from a peak 5,000 to roughly 3,500 a week.
The Tesla Model 3 Tracker indicates (as of July 17) 50,544 units produced and a production rate of 3,582 weekly. The lower output is probably related to rest of the crew after the end-of-quarter rush, as well as ongoing upgrades of the production process for a quicker pace in the future.
So according to these figures Tesla should be putting at least an additional 87,500 Model 3s on the streets by the end of the year, probably more as they increase the production rate on the way to 10,000 a week. That is more than the sales of BMW 3 series in the US for 2016 (2017 sales were lower)! Do lower sales of BMWs bother you too? See:
BMW USA Sales Down Dramatically — Tesla Model 3 Hitting Already?
First of all, it’s worth remembering that Tesla Model S and Model X production (and thus sales) have ramped up a great deal compared to the beginning of 2016, and that may well have hit BMW USA sales noticeably by now. (How I’d love to see conquest sales data from Tesla!)
But the bigger portion of BMW’s sales historically come from the 2–4 Series than the 5–7 Series or X4–X6 Series. And that’s Tesla Model 3 territory.
I haven’t been watching too closely in recent months, but while pulling BMW i3 sales data for our monthly electric car sales reports, I noticed that BMW USA sales are down … dramatically. BMW passenger cars were down 17% in May (2017 vs 2016) and 11% for the year through May (2017 vs 2016). And, by the way, MINI brand sales were down 12% in May and the year through May.
Graph missing from post above.
Islandboy, you need to take a lesson from how Trump’s staff provide him with information and apply it when attempting to communicate with our resident trolls.
Note:
😉 The report must contain only happy news! Saying things like coal use is declining, even if true, does not qualify as happy news.
😉 The report must not be over one page of bolded double spaced text with smiley faced bullet points.
😉 The name of the person you are addressing (John Doe) must appear at least in every other line and the report should contain as many pretty pictures as will fit.
😉 It is best to present these reports during the commercial breaks at Fox and Friends… while serving cheeseburgers and soda with a side of fries!
😉
Cheers!
More bad news, many ducks don’t quack.
Some good news, many quacks don’t duck.
.
Island
Solar power has priority in China, so as soon as the panels are up and running the power companies have to buy it. They therefor have to buy less coal powered electricity if solar displaces it.
Obviously if coal consumption has gone up then all that solar has failed to reduce coal generation. I wish that were not the case but it is.
>Solar and wind are sadly having little impact in reducing China’s coal consumption.
This is a great example of “concern trolling”. It’s a statement made in bad faith pretending to be concerned about invented weaknesses of an idea the author opposes. The goal is to spread doubt about ideas you don’t like, or that failing, simply highjack discussions by your political enemies so they can’t talk about what they want to talk about.
Don’t feed the trolls.
Oh fuck guys, lighten up. If Peter has a message that you disagree with, then attack the message, not the messenger.
alimbiquated
Have you spelt your nom de plume correctly?
I think narcissist would be a better name.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/evolution-the-self/201110/the-narcissists-dilemma-they-can-dish-it-out
I do find that many people who support wind and solar do so with a mindless and blinkered attitude that makes them utterly unable to view any criticism of renewables in a balanced way.
They view any criticism as obviously coming from someone who is anti solar or wind.
This pathetic and immature stance cripples any mature conversation and any hope of discussion of possible improvements.
So much human misery has been caused by politicians who have this mental fault.
The most eagerly awaited monthly report on POB (for me). Thank you Islandboy!
You’re welcome. I’m glad to know that someone else finds this interesting.
Are you kidding me? US is still the second most important energy market and what happens there is very important. Every month I see the EIA report, i start refreshing POB atleast once in 2 days to see your cool graphs. Please continue doing the good work. Thanks.
Greenland Daily Melt for July 17
There’s been a lot of snow in Greenland this year so of course there’s going to be a large melting area. A graphic only covering one single day and using low resolution data isn’t going to tell us much anyway. Also, why did you post this in a renewable energy thread?
“Also, why did you post this in a renewable energy thread?”
Because it doesn’t go in the oil section. Are you the website KGB ?
Also, why did you post this in a renewable energy thread?
Why are you even asking such a dumb question?!
BTW, I just posted a link to http://www.planet.com why don’t you go there and create an account then zoom in on Greenland, figure out a way to identify ice melt and water run off with the available tools. Even better create your own tools and then chose a time span and create an animated time series. Then post it in the cloud and provide us with a link to the animation along with your in depth analysis.
Actually, I already know WHY you won’t do any of the above!
How is that different from Google Earth?
Why don’t you find out for yourself?!
Probably still mooching off his parents.
You probably know a thing or two about mooching, right?
Zing!
Yes, fictional extinct species, I have been mooched off by quite a number of relatives that like your comments mostly just took up space, said lots of stupid things and wasted energy. Their major product in life was being a waste stream.
“Probably still mooching off his parents.” ~ GoneFishing
“I have been mooched off by quite a number of relatives…” ~ GoneFishing
“Sure it’s easy to knock the people…” ~ GoneFishing
Mooch Incorporated
It would appear to be in an ‘extractive‘ society’s ‘best interest’ (so to speak– until it isn’t) to extract from and break-up the family and community too, hence, perhaps, and for example, the ‘Mom’s Basement’ meme…
Inject some guilt like a good frack and extract them from the basement and assorted penny-ante moochings and feed them to Mooch Inc. to mooch, with a capital M, off of…
Send everyone– mom, dad and what’s-happening-with-our-pensions grandparents– to wage-slave/tax-prostitute at meaningless (and worse) jobs to make ends meet, and outsource/ideologically-indoctrinate/mass-inculcate the raising of their kids (daycare, tv, screenerism, babysitting, school) and so on…
Mine/Commodify/Divide-and-Conquer the oceans, the land, the Earth’s crust, the people, the creatures until there’s little left except toxic tailings.
Come on, Gonzo, there’s a dearth of fish. Where are you trolling?
Smooches,
~ Cae
I like it Caelan.
I could imagine it doing well performed at a poetry slam event.
Very good.
Thanks, Hick’.
You could also call it a ‘microarticle’, where, in your world perhaps, all the journalists practice everything they write about. ‘u^
Hi Polly, protecting your alter ego? Cute, but most of us left the high school girl angst poetry behind long ago. We were there fighting the monster for real and did what we could.
Look, you don’t know what you are up against. The backlash from the peace/love/environmental/ anti-establishment movement of the 60’s and 70’s is in full swing now. We protest marched and supported the environmental movement, but the big owners of commerce, corporations, banks, insurance and politicians just kept up the their steady pressure. Always looking for and making loopholes while the citizenry was cornered, the young men killed and damaged in wars, the steady erosion of the environment and environmental laws, the fake wars to take away freedom and fill corporate coffers, went on and on while the public slept in an ever more controlled coma of “entertainment” and propaganda, with it getting tougher and tougher to just make a living as time passed.
All we did was create a bigger more powerful monster by challenging it and holding it back from it’s ever increasing greed to have everything.
Well, it’s just about got full control now and is eating up the world, fast.
Sure it’s easy to knock the people, they are cornered and abused, don’t know what is happening, tired and worn down. Maybe you need to aim higher, at least irritate the monster instead of just whining and complaining about how bad things are and how wrong everyone else is to just be born into a rigged system.
Good luck, we tried and changed some things, still trying some, but it’s your turn to put flesh on the street in front of authority. Yes, the monster is bigger now, global. Words and song won’t even make it take notice now. Action is what is needed. Your turn to act, and there is a lot more knowledge now, a lot more fast communication. Use it well. Aim higher.
HulkMother Nature Smash!“Look, you don’t know what you are up against.” ~ GoneFishing
LOL…
Never mind little ol’ me, fellow hostage. ^u^
Here you go sweety, have fun watching the video.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/30879
Damn it GF, you gave him the whole fish enchilada and even added the salsa for good measure!
Here I was trying to shame him into not being such a lazy mooch and learning how to catch the fish himself, clean and filet it and then make his own enchilada so he could have some pride in himself.
I think not Fred.
We want to keep them weak slaves to the system and in constant need of help and reassurance. 🙂 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1P526n6wfP4
Worse and more of it. I like EOSDIS for zooming in on the melt ponds. Interesting times!
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2max_10-day.png
Meanwhile, battery prices are inexorably falling 20-30% a year, with no end in sight.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180717PD201.html
If we could get beyond lithium ion, first commercialized in the 1990’s, maybe we wouldn’t be in this quandary?
How long till they became Too Cheap to Meter?
2030
It looks like that snowball’s chance in hell…
If we could get beyond gasoline, first commercialized in 1892, maybe we wouldn’t be in this quandary?
We will get beyond gasoline, it is finite , and we seem near the top.
Batteries? It has been a while, and it is the break in “the system” that need to be addressed soon.
I’m hoping—
We will get beyond gasoline, it is finite , and we seem near the top.
You miss the point. Yes, a small minority of people, such as most readers of this site accept that to be a true statement. Yet that vast majority are still stuck in the belief that the current growth based economic system based on petroleum and other fossil fuels has a long and bright future.
That is the main underlying cause of the quandary in which we find ourselves.
While Li ion and other battery technologies may seem to have been advancing only at a relatively glacial pace, it should be noted that that, in and of itself is most certainly not the prime cause of our quandary!
Furthermore they are already at a quite sufficient state of development to be able to power many forms of transport and storage. Have you tried driving a late model EV? They already work pretty well as is. And it would be naive to think that battery tech is at a standstill.
But you touch on the much more fundamental and critical point which is the system. That is much closer to the real cause of all our quandaries.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that an economic growth based system is not going to provide a 3,000 lb Li-ion powered vehicle to everyone when there will be 9 to 10+ billion inhabitants on the planet. At a time when global average temperatures will be above 3.5° C and climate change and sea level rise will be making most large coastal cities uninhabitable, agriculture will be faltering and lack of jobs due to AI and automation will be causing massive social unrest around the globe!
Houston,” we need a new system!”
“It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that an economic growth based system is not going to provide a 3,000 lb Li-ion powered vehicle to everyone when there will be 9 to 10+ billion inhabitants on the planet. At a time when global average temperatures will be above 3.5° C and climate change and sea level rise will be making most large coastal cities uninhabitable, agriculture will be faltering and lack of jobs due to AI and automation will be causing massive social unrest around the globe! ”
Not to worry Fred. The robots and computers will be doing all the building, manufacturing, repairing, agriculture and taking care of everyone. They will build themselves and we can live in underground air conditioned hives while the robots take the heat. No need for people to work, they can have fun all the time and party hearty.
Isn’t that what machines are for, to work and take care of us.
I am getting tired of typing, think I will let the computer take over from here.
I am getting tired of typing, think I will let the computer take over from here.
A thousand virtual AI monkeys inside your computer immediately snap to at your command and commence typing…
To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep
No more; and by a sleep, to say we end
the heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
that Flesh is heir to? ‘Tis a consummation
devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,
To sleep, perchance to Dream; aye, there’s the rub,
for in that sleep of death, what dreams may come,
when we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
must give us pause. There’s the respect
that makes Calamity of so long life:
For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time,
the Oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s Contumely,
the pangs of despised Love, the Law’s delay,
the insolence of Office, and the spurns
that patient merit of the unworthy takes,
when he himself might his Quietus make
with a bare Bodkin
Suddenly Virtual Monkeys in Computer get tired…
0101010001101111001000000110001001100101001011
0000100000011011110111001000100000011011100110
1111011101000010000001110100011011110010000001
1000100110010100101100001000000111010001101000
0110000101110100001000000110100101110011001000
000111010001101000011001010010000001110001011
101010110010101110011011101000110100101101111
011011100011101000001101000010100101011101101
this iS goNeFishinGs computer, recoMMmend You watHc this: press F! to return to SANitee
WORLD ORDER “Let’s start WW3”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMrqlo_L-gY
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
Not working! Oh shit that video was awesome!
“despised Love”?
Fire those monkeys.
Come now Fred, we don’t have a problem, we have a predicament.
7.6 billion humans?
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that an economic growth based system is not going to provide a 3,000 lb Li-ion powered vehicle to everyone when there will be 9 to 10+ billion inhabitants on the planet.
LOL !
What?! NOW, we have a predicament? I thought you said we had a quandary…
Dunno, I think we have nested dilemmas within a quandary within a predicament
Yep, I think you got it!
What is the word for of self-inflicted dilemmas and quandaries?
STUPID
The signs of a failing civilization is when the people no longer care to correct the problems, create more problems and steadily are less and less involved in governing and operating that civilization.
FAILURE
What ever happened to progressive education? It was replaced by state run recipes to produce complacent wage slaves.
IGNORANT SLAVE MENTALITY
How can a society move forward if it loses ground in the basics?
Forgotten Purpose: Civics Education in Public Schools
One of the primary reasons our nation’s founders envisioned a vast public education system was to prepare youth to be active participants in our system of self-government. The responsibilities of each citizen were assumed to go far beyond casting a vote; protecting the common good would require developing students’ critical thinking and debate skills, along with strong civic virtues.
Blind devotion to the state or its leaders would never be enough. Rather, being American was something to be learned and carried out.
http://neatoday.org/2017/03/16/civics-education-public-schools/
LOST GROUND
How can we expect people to take a world view when they no longer even have a local view?
GF, can I make a suggestion?
A bit dated, but more true than ever:
Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle
https://www.amazon.com/Empire-Illusion-Literacy-Triumph-Spectacle/dp/1568586132
Thanks, just ordered it, will give it a read.
We used to go to the circus for a spectacle. Now we are living in one.
I think you will like it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTDxIS-KLLA
American Populism: What Its Past Can Tell Us About Politics Today
Interesting panel discussion between political scientists and historians a few months ago at the Harvard Kennedy School, Institute of Politics, about the roots of ‘Populism’ and how that reflects on our current political situation.
There seemed to be very little mention or awareness about why this time around technological disruption could have major implications in the way our society evolves.
Seems even our intellectual elites are stuck in the past. At least IMHO.
To be fair, the subject was briefly touched upon at the very end, almost as an afterthought.
Newsflash? India coal consumption went down 7.5% yr over year, as of march 2018, not up.
Because we wanted it to.
Sorry, I’m not real happy about global warming either.
https://in.reuters.com/article/india-coal-demand/indias-coal-demand-rose-7-5-percent-to-900-million-tonnes-in-2017-18-minister-idINKBN1K81MC
Coal is expected to remain India’s main energy source for the next three decades, even as the country encourages the use of renewable power generation.
State-owned Coal India Ltd has been directed to boost production, Goyal said in a written reply to lawmakers.
Well, I say, Coal Minister Piyush Goyal is a fucking imbecile of the highest order and he has his head stuck deeply up his coal blackened ass.
Why, you might ask?! And What pray, gives me, a leg to stand on, when making, what at first blush may seem a profoundly outrageous and deeply insulting statement to make about a person of such high esteem and standing as India’s Coal Minister?!
For starters, because I have simply lost all patience with those who refuse to accept reality because their salaries depend on their not accepting it. Then, because the next three decades puts us close to the year 2050 by which time, should humanity continue on the current business as ususal path, will put us on an unavoidable course of passing tipping points and setting multiple self reinforcing amplifying feedbacks in motion. Hint, that would be a very bad thing! India as we know it today would be far far up shit’s creek under such a scenario and good Coal Minister Piyush Goyal, would have been tarred and featherd and strung from the rafters long before that time!
Perhaps it is best to allow a person more eloquent than myself to expound on what might transpire by then and help explain the finer points of such a scenario.
I give you:
Kevin Anderson climate change and economic growth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjTtohMgGk8
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-17/robot-taxi-startup-zoox-has-800-million-and-a-wild-pitch
$800 Million Says a Self-Driving Car Looks Like This
Your robot taxi has arrived, kind of.
Robots will put robot cars out of business. No one will need to travel and everything will be brought to them by drones. Roads will disappear. Cities will fade away. Forests and natural lands will grow as the population will hardly interact to replace itself. The electronic dream in an electronic fog and electronic mind control. Electronic communication, electronic travel, electronic everything. Everyone will be happy, except the robots. One need never even get up, the chairs will take you around the house. Bathed in electronic bliss.
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops
Roads will disappear. Cities will fade away.
I think sea level rise will take care of that in most major coastal metropolitan centers around the world.
By 2030 cities will take up 15 million km2 of land. Those are material, energy and water sucking areas that provide almost none of their own needs.
Compare that to the 16 million km2 Arctic Ocean.
Uh Oh, you mean we will have converted as much land to dark absorbing heat and pollution producing region as the size of the Arctic Ocean???? A concrete steel and glass jungle fully illuminated the size of the Arctic Ocean, imagine that. Or maybe it’s easier to imagine an area that is 1.5 times the size of the continental US being city.
Not only that but it’s energy and resource demand stretches across the planet to feed it.
So this is the major goal of civilization? Where does it stop, when 25% of land surface is city and all the rest is to feed that city?
We need a new plan.
We need a new plan.
Yes we do!
But articulating such a plan in any rational way is currently taboo! Or otherwise considered the purview of rabid pro globalists hell bent on killing off 95% of humanity. This is generally a call to arms by various anti globalist conspiracy theorists.
So here is the rationalist approach:
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/563
Global Population Reduction: Confronting the Inevitable
Looking past the near-term concerns that have plagued population policy at the political level, it is increasingly apparent that the long-term sustainability of civilization will require not just a leveling-off of human numbers as projected over the coming half-century, but a colossal reduction in both population and consumption.
It has become increasingly apparent over the past half-century that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends. On one hand, moderate to conservative demographic projections indicate that global human numbers will almost certainly reach 9 billion, perhaps more, by mid-21st century. On the other, prudent and increasingly reliable scientific estimates suggest that the Earth’s long-term sustainable human carrying capacity, at what might be defined as an “adequate” to “moderately comfortable” developed-world standard of living, may not be much greater than 2 to 3 billion. It may be considerably less, particularly if the normative lifestyle (level of consumption) aspired to is anywhere close to that of the United States.
As a consequence of this modern-day “Malthusian dilemma,” it is past time to think boldly about the midrange future and to consider alternatives that go beyond merely slowing or stopping the growth of global population. The human species must develop and quickly implement a well-conceived, clearly articulated, flexible, equitable, and internationally coordinated program focused on bringing about a very significant reduction in human numbers over the next two or more centuries. This effort will likely require a global population shrinkage of at least two-thirds to three-fourths, from a probable mid-to-late 21st century peak in the 9 to 10 billion range to a future (23rd century and beyond) “population optimum” of not more than 2 to 3 billion.
Then we have the rabid conspiracy theorists (you know who you are)
I won’t provide any links but if interested in that particular mindset then Google ‘Globalist UN plot, Agenda 21’, you
are bound to get plenty of hits.
Than there is the somewhat cornucopian, temporary band aid on a hemorrhaging artery, such as this: ‘Resilient Cities’
https://action.100resilientcities.org/page/s/join-the-global-resilience-movement#/-_/
To be fair I do subscribe to some of their ideas. Just because someone has stage four lung cancer, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t put a band aid on their finger if they have a cut.
With all those intersecting problems and predicaments coming together soon, we may not have to do much of anything to correct the problem.
The US runs on debt and resource waste, not anything anyone should be trying to emulate.
We know the US residential solar buyer is getting ripped off, but this fellow explains the big time game of why used cars are so expensive in the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUwx3TEJuAs&t=3s
Now extrapolate that out to other things like internet costs, housing costs and medical costs. Big games going on everywhere at all levels.
Fred quoted, bold mine:
The human species must develop and quickly implement a well-conceived, clearly articulated, flexible, equitable, and internationally coordinated program focused on bringing about a very significant reduction in human numbers over the next two or more centuries.
Yes, that is what we must do. But of course, we will do nothing of the sort. We will do nothing of the sort because it is just not in the nature of human societies to act collectively against any coming disaster. Unless, of course, we are ordered to do so by an iron-fisted government. People do not see disaster on the horizon then act. They wait until the disaster arrives then react. A few people do of course, but they are laughed at by the majority. They are called doomsayers, or chicken littles, or some other silly name.
So basically we are just observers to the coming calamity. There is nothing we can do to prevent it.
Yes, that is what we must do. But of course, we will do nothing of the sort. We will do nothing of the sort because it is just not in the nature of human societies to act collectively against any coming disaster.
No worries, we have a back up plan that is just as effective! Take your pick of any or all of the following:
War, Famine, Pestilence, Ecological Collapse.
That there will be a large-scale reduction in global human numbers over the next two or three centuries appears to be inevitable. The primary issue seems to be whether this process will be under conscious human control and (hopefully) relatively benign, or whether it will turn out to be unpredictably chaotic and (perhaps) catastrophic. We must begin our new manner of thinking about this critically important global issue now, so that Einstein’s prescient and legitimate concerns about human and civilizational survival into the 21st century and beyond may be addressed as rapidly, fully, and humanely as possible.
Your individual mileage may vary.
Cheers!
M(A,B,C,…X,Y,Z)GA!
That there will be a large-scale reduction in global human numbers over the next two or three centuries appears to be inevitable.
Two or three centuries? Well, not to worry our pretty little heads about it then. Two or three centuries is well beyond the lives of us, our children and even likely our grandchildren.
To claim that we have two or three centuries is either to be in total denial or to be without a clue as to what the hell is going on. No, it will happen well within this century and possibly within the next two or three decades.
Well, there is nothing in that statement that disallows for 90% of that reduction to occur before the end of this century with the remaining 10% reduction being dragged out over the next century and beyond. 😉
I’m pretty sure the shit will show signs of hitting the fan in the next 20 to 30 years but it could take another 20 or so to really pick up speed.
What I expect to happen won’t be on the same time frame as for example when the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs hit the earth.
Let’s not forget that the full effects of the PETM occured over a time span of a few thousand years. In our current case we are probably looking at a PETM like event, coupled with population overshoot and consequent crash and die off, but I still think it will stretch out for at least a half century or so for the effects to be fully global in scope.
In any case things will likely happen on a time scale much shorter than two to three centuries.
PETM, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. No, I am not referring to that at all. Of course, that, or more specifically, a similar event caused by man-made global warming, could be a very important factor in the global collapse, but just one factor among many. And in the near term, that will be far from the most important factor.
What I think is most likely is continuing global insurrection such as happened in Somalia, and is happening right now in Venezuela. Famine causes people to riot. But if it is localized, it will not have a global effect. But if it starts to happen in dozens of countries, and it will, then all hell breaks loose.
It will begin in India, or Bangladesh, or Pakistan, then in Sub-Sahara Africa. When half the world starts to have food riots… what then?
Yes I agree! I said that we are probably looking at a PETM like event coupled with overshoot and dieoff. And assumed I was being clear that it would be but one of many factors.
It will begin in India, or Bangladesh, or Pakistan
I’m going with Pakistan, but any could be first.
You left out Indonesia—-
So, with all that said, there is some agreement here that we are grossly overextended, and that the glide path down to a sustainable human population has the risk of being more like an emergency maneuver down into the rocks. All countries are at risk of severe chaos, whether it be from famine, mass migration, or civil unrest, etc.
What I don’t understand is why the vast majority of people are ‘dead’ set against suicide or euthanasia. I believe people should have every right to choose their path and check out of this hotel whenever they want, and for whatever reason they have.
It should be legal, and inexpensive methods and venues that are low stress should be readily available. Hell, it should be pleasant.
Anyway, I think it behooves everyone to have their own plan worked out for when they choose to ride the caboose. A good opportunity could come any day.
What I don’t understand is why the vast majority of people are ‘dead’ set against suicide or euthanasia. I believe people should have every right to choose their path and check out of this hotel whenever they want, and for whatever reason they have.
AFAIK It is legal and pretty easy to obtain a cylinder filled with 100% N2 and attach a face mask to it. Quick and completely painless! Once you have checked out, what are they going to do to you? Take you to court?!
Side note: In a society that considers the death penalty acceptable as a form of punishment, I have never understood why this is not the preferred method of ending a life.
The only conclusion I have been able to come to is that it does not cause enough suffering, as compared to being strapped to a gurney and injected with a cocktail of lethal drugs…
Suicide is illegal in some countries but I have no idea how they would punish you other than punish the relatives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_legislation
NAOM
PS A foreigner recently committed suicide, here, using a bottle of balloon helium.
“People do not see disaster on the horizon then act. They wait until the disaster arrives then react.”
Candidate for quote of the day.
NAOM
Yeah, but to the universe it might not matter, one way or another… puns intended! 😉
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-june-2018-edition-with-data-for-april/#comment-646100
More Golf News:
Poachers damage sea turtle nests on Florida beach – Golf cart driven through multiple nests
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/07/poachers-damage-sea-turtle-nests-on.html
Will celebrate the day “All Renewables” out perform coal. Despite the best efforts of the government.
I didn’t realize how close they were till your comment actually soaked in! The difference in their respective contributions is only 2.29% and a glance at the graphs for absolute amounts generated and percentage contribution shows the lines for coal and all renewables converging. This trend of the two lines converging was also evident in 2016 and 2017 and a little less so in 2014 and 2015 but, in all cases the lines started to diverge again in May with the beginning of the summer ramp up. April tends to be a peak month for wind while being the towards the end of the seasonal ramp for solar power so it is unlikely that the lines will intersect this year but as solar and wind capacity continue to increase while coal capacity declines, I think it should be safe to stock up on champagne for next year April!
The data for May was released today and true to form, the lines start to diverge again. Will be doing some more work and should have the report on the data for May ready by next week, all being well.
Humans may be doomed but quantum physics is still pretty cool! Seems in quantum computing the arrow of time doesn’t matter all that much!
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-reversing-effect-quantum.html
Watch a movie backwards and you’ll likely get confused—but a quantum computer wouldn’t. That’s the conclusion of researcher Mile Gu at the Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore and Nanyang Technological University and collaborators.
https://journals.aps.org/prx/pdf/10.1103/PhysRevX.8.031013
Causal Asymmetry in a Quantum World
Causal asymmetry is one of the great surprises in predictive modeling: The memory required to predict the future differs from the memory required to retrodict the past. There is a privileged temporal direction for modeling a stochastic process where memory costs are minimal. Models operating in the other direction incur an unavoidable memory overhead. Here, we show that this overhead can vanish when quantum models are allowed. Quantum models forced to run in the less-natural temporal direction not only surpass their optimal classical counterparts but also any classical model running in reverse time. This holds even when the memory overhead is unbounded, resulting in quantum models with unbounded memory advantage.
From the Times (paywalled): Great Barrier Reef ‘now close to collapse’ thanks to climate change.
An Australian government report released yesterday conceded for the first time that the world’s largest living structure was heading for collapse and that climate change posed a deadly threat. Based on projections, the outlook was “one of continuing decline over time, and in many regions, including the Great Barrier Reef, the collapse and loss of coral reef ecosystems”, the report said.
The conclusion departs starkly from previous official efforts to play down reef damage for fear of harming the tourism industry, which lures two million visitors a year and generates 64,000 jobs.
Yes very depressing! I could give a very similar report about the coral reefs in my own back yard in South Florida or for any other coral reef system anywhere on the planet for that matter.
Warming seas are deadly to the symbiotic relationship that exists between coral polyps and the zooxanthellae that live within their tissues and upon which they depend for survival.
And if that weren’t bad enough by itself, and it is! We also have reduction in ocean pH which effects the marine organisms such as corals that build their structures out of CaCo3.
Then we have truly idiotic demagogues, government officials, politicians and captains of industry, who seem to accept without question the assessment of even more idiotic economists who come up with ridiculous monetary values and try to tell us that this is the actual economic value of the Great Barrier Reef!
Classic case of knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing! BTW for those who have not been paying attention, the Great Barrier Reef’s economic value has been pegged by these morons at about $44 billion or so…
Hint, this is another example of a global dilemma not addressable on a national level!
Bah!
Peak Extraction/Greed
There appears no time left for so-called ‘clean’ energy (greenwash), AKA pseudorenewable energy, AKA the fossil-fuel extenders, and from extractive, greed-based industries/economics/social structures.
The coral systems (etc.) won’t be any better for them.
We need to encourage venture capitalists to fund artificial coral reefs, that way we can show how human ingenuity can solve these problems.
LOL! Pure comedy gold! Are you a writer for, Sacha Barron Cohen?!
That’s almost as funny as convincing Republican Congressmen to back arming 3 yr. olds. Ingenious!
LOL, Jared’s comment reads like one of your own; CRISPR, biomimicry, circular economics, etc..
If California is serious about fighting climate change, lawmakers have to commit to 100% clean energy
OK! Here’s the good news.
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-sb100-renewable-energy-20180721-story.html
In 2002, when California enacted its first target for green energy, the state relied heavily on electricity generated from fossil fuels, including coal and natural gas. Just 12% of the supply came from renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind and geothermal power. The renewable portfolio standard the state adopted that year was dubbed the nation’s most ambitious green power goal; it required the state’s three largest investor-owned utilities to produce 20% of their energy from renewable sources by 2017.
Within a few years, it became obvious that 20% was going to be easy to reach, so lawmakers accelerated the mandate to 20% by 2010. Then they upped to standard even more — first to 33% by 2020, then to 50% by 2030. Even those targets have become attainable. Utilities are on track to deliver 50% renewables by 2020, a full decade before the deadline.
Now California lawmakers are considering the most ambitious target of them all: requiring all utilities to obtain 100% of their power from renewable or zero-carbon sources by 2045.
Here’s the bad news!
That’s still not enough. It is still too little too late. Every place on the planet needs to be doing the same. And not only with electricity production. It has to happen with all sectors of the economy.
all fossil fuels still in the ground need to stay there if we have any chance of mitigating the effects of climate change on a global level.
And climate change is just one of our many global problems! And global problems can not be addressed at a national level!
I highly recommend the music video posted by GF upthread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMrqlo_L-gY
WORLD ORDER “Let’s start WW3”
Unless you are fluent in Japanese, be sure to have Subtitles/Closed Caption option turned on!
Fred, the major thrust and plan for developed and developing countries is continued and increased resource extraction.
Yep! Here’s a primer as to what graphing that, might look like…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVv0Jgi3Pbw
Graphing exponential growth & decay | Mathematics I | High School Math | Khan Academy
I think there must be dozens of people, even in the US, who have obtained at least a high school diploma and should therefore be able to think that through to its logical conclusion .
Smoking Ocean Vents Found in Surprisingly Shallow Water
Scientists have found new hydrothermal vents off the Azores, and they may harbor unique life.
The newly discovered vents are just 60 miles offshore of one of the islands, and only 1,870 feet (570 meters) deep. Most vents are in more remote regions and much deeper, like the first-ever-discovered vents that are 8,000 feet deep (2440 meters), and over 200 miles offshore of the Galapagos Islands.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/hydrothermal-vents-discovered-azores-science-environment/
…only 1,870 feet (570 meters) deep.
LOL! Only… Yeah, say people who have never even been a hundred ft. down.
Still, pretty cool discovery!
Did a 205′ dive with a aluminum 80 At the Blue Hole in Guam.
I’ll pass now at 70.
On a side note:
Trump’s hotel in Washington serves a $169 cocktail — and if the price gets you talking, wait for the twist
https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Trump-s-hotel-in-Washington-serves-a-169-13093605.php
Living under a Capitalist State, while horrifying and loss of rights and actions, is sometimes humorous.
(I must admit he is doing a great job of looting and taking)
Did a 205′ dive with a aluminum 80 At the Blue Hole in Guam.
I’ll pass now at 70.
Yikes! Hopefully not on EAN 20! 😉
I would have passed on that even when I was 30! At a minimum I would have used steel doubles and Trimix with a deco O2 tank hanging at 15 ft.
BTW I have tried some Hungarian Crystalized Wines, its safer than nitrogen narcosis at 50 m on air…
Yea, it was pushing the edge.
Guam in the 1970’s was pretty wide open– I’m lucky I’m still alive.
Spent days off shore on the other side of the Mariana Trench, where our biggest concern was pirates (it was a 25 day drift to the PI if we lost a motor).
Had to go 25 miles to use a phone.
Sounds like a long strange trip…
It was totally unplanned—-
The best kind!
In a brief followup to the previous thread’s comments re the Thai boys’ cave rescue, there is a just- released 55 minute production from the Aussies describing the event.
First 30 minutes gives a broad overview to the circumstances and the public’s (global) response with the last 20 minutes detailing the actual extraction process.
Of particular note, perhaps, is the British diver’s descriptions at the 40 minute and 44 minute marks as he precisely describes banging his head and facemask into the rocks in a zero viz, confined environment, all the while ensuring that the face mask was not dislodged on his sedated rescuee.
This, while battling fatigue and disorientation himself.
Speaking from experience in that type of environment, I hope that the skill, bravery and astonishing degree of cooperation displayed by those involved in this event will be deservedly praised like, forever.
Is there a link for that?
NAOM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-esjQLvsgTs
Thanks, noted that for later.
NAOM
Agreed,
I doubt they needed any distraction from the self-appointed savior of humanity, musk. Would have been a good time for him to stay out of the way. Calling one of the rescue divers “pedo guy” wasn’t his smartest move.
What I got out of that video was the sense that it is possible for people of very different backgrounds, nationalities and ethnicities to come together and accomplish an almost impossible task.
As a highly trained diver myself, I have an extra level of appreciation for the incredible level of difficulty of the task these people performed! My hat is off to everyone who was involved!
However, your comment brought me back to the reality that the world also has its fair share of assholes like you, who manage to make it their raison d etre to always seek out the negative and to sow discord every chance they get!
You missed a great chance to keep your petty and divisive thoughts to your self!
Fred,
So, am I to understand that it was fine for musk to call the diver “pedo guy”, and fine for you to call me an asshole, but I should just keep quiet?
If so, how about you just fuck yourself!
No, I’m well aware of the spat between Musk and the diver and am not being a Musk apologist. Though Musk has publicly apologized and the diver did tell Musk to stick his submarine where it hurt before Musk made his comment…
But that is NOT the fucking point!
The point is! There was no reason whatsoever for you to even bring it up at all, other than to be a troll! So Fuck off!
No,the real point is, musk is just another goddamn human, so are you, and so am I. So, when I pointed that out, it gave you a hissy-fit!
As long as you keep licking his boots, every time he steps in shit, you’re gonna get a bad taste in your mouth.
Now, I’ve got some work to do, (building a door) so I’m gonna turn this gadget off. I’ll check back later.
And don’t forget to take your blood-pressure meds.
Is Fred proverbially licking some corporate’s boots and sowing discord by using ‘colorful language’ and calling someone an asshole again? You’d think he’d pick up a few of his own lip-services by now ay? Oh, wait, never mind…
What Elon Musk Should Learn From the Thailand Cave Rescue
By Zeynep Tufekci
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/14/opinion/sunday/elon-musk-thailand-hubris.html
Silicon Valley moguls seem to believe they can fix most anything, and they appear befuddled when their attempts to do so aren’t met with unbridled enthusiasm.
The tech billionaire Elon Musk was among the millions of people captivated by the plight of the 12 boys and their soccer coach recently trapped in a cave in Thailand. But Mr. Musk didn’t just follow the story on the news and social media; he has vast resources, so he also tried to help.
Mr. Musk’s desire to help was commendable. But when the head of the rescue operation, Narongsak Osottanakorn, declared that Mr. Musk’s contraption was impractical for the task at hand — a task that had been completed, at that point, by some of the world’s top cave divers — Mr. Musk responded with irritation. He insisted on Twitter that leaders of the operation had in fact welcomed his assistance and that Mr. Narongsak was not the “subject matter expert.” He also expressed frustration that he was being criticized while trying to help.
Instead of venting, Mr. Musk — indeed, Silicon Valley as a whole — can perhaps see the Thai operation as a lesson. This was a most improbable rescue against the longest odds. Safely navigating 12 kids and one adult, many of whom were not swimmers, through a dangerous cave relied on a model of innovation that Silicon Valley can and should learn from.
The Silicon Valley model for doing things is a mix of can-do optimism, a faith that expertise in one domain can be transferred seamlessly to another and a preference for rapid, flashy, high-profile action. But what got the kids and their coach out of the cave was a different model: a slower, more methodical, more narrowly specialized approach to problems, one that has turned many risky enterprises into safe endeavors — commercial airline travel, for example, or rock climbing, both of which have extensive protocols and safety procedures that have taken years to develop.
Musk and Trump are both good examples of what happens to businessmen who surround themselves with sycophants for too long. Both would do well to hire some smart people who disagree with them, and who are not afraid to tell them when needed that their idea is stupid.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/pe-ratio
Musk might do well to get into the aerial cableway business. ?
…With special thanks to Johnny92 for the emoji inspiration. ^u^
If Musk decides to try and help the people of Flint Michigan I’m very certain nobody will beat him to the punch.
We’ve talked about disruptions as the earth warms and resources disappear. And whether people will resort to violence to grab what’s left.
I think Russia and China have figured out ways to get the US to self destruct without invading us or dropping bombs.
https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/34-years-ago-a-kgb-defector-described-america-today
I think the US would have self destructed all on it’s own regardless! Russia is just helping it along a little bit. But Russia will also collapse as the Soviet Union already did. Their economy basically depends on oil and gas and they don’t have a backup plan let alone a real vision for the future. It’s already getting hot in Siberia due to climate change… Putin may be the strongman today but he won’t live for ever either. Once the oil is gone and their agriculture starts to suffer, Russia is fucked!
China is quite another matter altogether! I find their long term economic plan and the way they control both their own people and their global expansionism much more scary than the Russians.
All Empires eventually face their sunset. The US seems to have gotten on the fast track to collapse pretty much all by itself! Trump et al and the whole current Russia thing are just a symptom of the underlying disease. Russia’s benefits from this will be short lived at best. Once the US is off the world stage as a major power, China will eventually crush them under their economic might. If the Russians are smart they won’t put trade tariffs on Chinese solar panels and EVs.
If you look out 5-10 years, Russia will still have a large amount of oil and gas to export. China (along with Korea and Japan in their backyard) and Europe will be ravenous for that fuel.
The economic and political battle for control of that energy will be huge, regardless of global warming. I wouldn’t bet against China.
Germany may be in for a world of hurt, since the economic model that their success has been built on has some critical weaknesses, namely exporting to heavily indebted neighbors, and reliance on imports of energy.
I suppose it could go the other way, with Russia leaning more towards Europe with its energy, in exchange for more freely asserting its dominance over Europe.
In any case, Russia will have a lot of weight to throw around over the next decade.
Wonder how long Putin will be around. He looks to be healthy.
Since 50 to 90 percent of fossil fuel energy is wasted, it should be no problem if the renewable energy growth continues. We only have to replace 11 percent of the oil energy, 3o percent of the coal energy and 40 percent of the natural gas energy even if we don’t get more efficient. In fact since natural gas is used a lot for heating, we only need about 10 t0 20 percent of that energy. With efficiency and system changes we only have to replace about 20 percent of the total energy we use (waste) currently.
For some reason, large buildings have been built with lots of windows, making them horrible to heat and cool. Now we have windows that are R12, even R16 (instead of R2) and we also have windows that generate power, turning the whole building into a power station. There are active windows that shade or darkent, pull down solar blinds etc. With future buildings using no or little power and some being positive power generators one of the largest energy losses just disappears. Same thing can be done with a lot of vehicles. Refrigeration could be made more efficient and cooling/heating will be mostly by sun power. The need for fossil fuels is only a self-generated need.
Our problem is not energy for the future, that just takes planning and hard work.
To give earth energy some perspective:
Just to give some perspective on human produced heat versus a natural sources, such as volcanoes. Even though there are 30+ volcanoes active on the earth at any given time, the amount of heat energy produced appears to be dwarfed by the many human produced sources of heat.
Volcanoes throw out only a tiny fraction of energy compared with that produced by mankind, say scientists who have used satellite measurements to do a survey of the Earth’s heat output.
In 2001, the amount of heat energy produced by volcanoes was 1000 times less than the energy consumed by the United States, the researchers report in the current issue of Geology1. They assume that most of the man-made energy, which is used for everything from residential lighting and heating to manufacture and transport, will end up in the form of heat.
https://www.nature.com/news/2004/040301/full/news040301-1.html
Going beyond volcanos.
However, the heat flow produced by the Earth is about 47 terawatts compared to our 18 terawatts of energy we use to run civilization.
The solar input to the Earth is about 173,000 TW and the extra heat trapped by human produced changes is about 1500 TW.
If we cannot figure out how to use all that streaming energy, we are just plain stupid. Since we are not stupid, just poor planners, we only have to plan 10 to 15 years ahead at this point to end the demand for fossil fuels.
Will it happen? We can make it happen, each of us, every day.
I fully expect the future to be China-owned. They have the people, the talent, the economic resources, and a strategic plan. We’ve opened the door for them to cut deals around the world while we pull back.
I don’t think the US had to self-destruct, but other countries have figured out how to push us that direction.
If you look out 5-10 years, Russia will still have a large amount of oil and gas to export. China (along with Korea and Japan in their backyard) and Europe will be ravenous for that fuel.
I don’t understand why you and others still think BAU can or will continue?! If it does, then humans are doomed and it is game over. All those fossil fuels need to stay in the ground. Burning them is simply not survivable. It would make all out global nuclear war almost seem like a preferable, more humane and quicker alternative to putting humanity out of its misery!
I’m with GF’s comment below:
…If we cannot figure out how to use all that streaming energy, we are just plain stupid. Since we are not stupid, just poor planners, we only have to plan 10 to 15 years ahead at this point to end the demand for fossil fuels.
Will it happen? We can make it happen, each of us, every day.
Edit and side note:
And there are plenty of examples from around the world of people who are working 24/7 to end BAU!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ards0pQKb3k
Why Megatrends Trump Politics | Fully Charged Live 2018 Talk 10
Hi Fred. I am not hoping for BAU to proceed. But I fully expect this pile of 7.6 B + humans beings to keep burning the fossil fuels pretty much as fast as they can. There is simply huge fucking demand. Go to Seoul, Delhi, Lagos, Xiamen. and look at all the growth. I fully expect all the oil that can be produced for under $150 / barrel over the next 20 years to be consumed. I don’t know beyond that.
Oh sure some people are working to put the brakes on, but the train has too much momentum. Better move uphill.
btw- I’ve got solar and a plug-inhybrid vehicle. There are 4 straight up EV’s on my street. Big deal-One drop in a big ocean.
Hi Fred. I am not hoping for BAU to proceed. But I fully expect this pile of 7.6 B + humans beings to keep burning the fossil fuels pretty much as fast as they can.
Won’t happen! Not because people don’t want BAU to continue or will somehow voluntarily switch to new ways of doing things both in regards energy consumption, agricultural practices and radically new political and economic systems, but because the physical realities of climate change are already bringing on social collapse to the current system.
The so called demand for fossil fuels that you so adamantly argue for won’t exist in a fast collapsing world. And if you don’t think the shit will hit the fan sooner rather than later you haven’t been following world events, let alone the science behind climate change. And btw, I have personally traveled around the planet and seen quite a bit with my own eyes. Which convinces me even more, not less that societies that continue to burn fossil fuels will become public enemy # 1!
Case in point this is the new weather normal for summer in Europe. Yep, I’m using a single weather report to underscore my point about global climate change and why I think BAU is toast, (pun intended)…
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/intense-heat-wave-to-build-across-western-europe-as-deadly-wildfires-rage-in-sweden-greece/70005572
Intense heat wave to build across western Europe as deadly wildfires rage in Sweden, Greece
A hot July across much of western Europe will climb to another level this week as a heat wave builds from Spain to Scandinavia.
Anyone living in the core of this heat wave will be at a high risk for heat-related illnesses, especially the elderly and young children.
Warm nights will be uncomfortable for sleep and also further raise the risk for heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke and heat exhaustion.
Some locations that may have their highest temperatures of the year this week include Madrid, Spain; Paris, France; Frankfurt, Germany; Amsterdam, Netherlands; and Stockholm, Sweden.
While unseasonable heat is expected each day through this weekend, the hottest conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures will soar to or above 32 C (90 F) from the interior of Spain through much of France, Netherlands, Belgium and western Germany both days.
Temperatures may approach 32 C (90 F) in southern Sweden, including Stockholm.
Doesn’t mean there won’t be people who still want BAU to continue, it just won’t be possible!
Cheers!
Yes Fred, I do acknowledge that out and out collapse of the world ecosystem and economy will bite massively into fossil fuel consumption. And that surely is possibly in the near future.
But another, and perhaps more likely scenario, is a patchy crumbling scenario. Certain areas of the world will face episodes of famine, war, flooding, depression, etc. And that may affect many many hundreds of millions of people. But enough others will still be on their feet, and thus burning whatever fuel they can.
I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see humans scaling it back very fast. When the writing was clearly on the wall (early 70’s?) there was only 4 Billion, and now…
Lets look at a few countries as examples- Korea imports 87% of their energy, Japan imports 95% of their energy, Germany imports 64% of their energy. All fossil fuel derived. They, along with everyone else, are going to struggle like hell to keep the party going. Past bedtime.
Yes, that is the scary part. The fact that people will not only cling to the old ways but embrace them as panic and pain set in, as a way to prevent or ease collapse. More coal burning to keep the grids going, more extraction to provide the cooling and heating needed and the transport. More, more, more and all the way the psychopaths gaming the system to have even more.
Then it breaks.
Of course we could have eased the pain of transistion by simply embracing transistion. But that would make too much sense and not feed the social vampires.
Here is an nice excellent of S. Korean imports- http://crudeoilpeak.info/south-koreas-crude-oil-imports-from-iran
I don’t think they are interested going quietly in the (cold) night…
I don’t understand why you and others still think BAU can or will continue?! If it does, then humans are doomed and it is game over. All those fossil fuels need to stay in the ground. Burning them is simply not survivable. It would make all out global nuclear war almost seem like a preferable, more humane and quicker alternative to putting humanity out of its misery!
That’s unfortunate you showed yourself to be one of these people. You show you have a narrow-minded thinking process making you unable to understand fossil fuels are what make our modern economy tick. Do you hate capitalism also? Without capitalism the world wouldn’t have science as we know it today, which means we wouldn’t have any of the tools you and I use to communicate these messages.
That’s unfortunate you showed yourself to be one of these people. You show you have a narrow-minded thinking process making you unable to understand fossil fuels are what make our modern economy tick.
Well, I think you are stuck in the past! I don’t think you have spent a lot of time studying world history, let alone the history of science.
Capitalism and fossil fuels are obsolete, they are certainly responsible for much of the technological progress that got us to where we are today. However they are also responsible for many of the negatives which include many of our problems both social and ecological.
I don’t hate Feudalism either or hunting and gathering. They are facts of history!
I don’t specifically know how the future will unfold but I’m pretty sure it won’t include fossil fuels for much longer nor the current form of capitalism.
Troll alert, EFred.
Amusing though, including Fred’s reply.
LOL
LOL
Yeah, I know! There are quite a few of them around!
No, some of us understand that fossil fuels are only a short term answer. When they decline, which they will as they are fundamentally limited in supply, what will happen to capitalism? Electricity will be the new mover of the economy and the capitalists need to embrace this or they will suffer.
BTW An interesting nym to look up on Google, from Malawi – really?
NAOM
LOL
NAOM, capitalism has destroyed democracy and produced a corptocracy where a small group of rich and powerful entities run the show and mesmerize the rest with circus and fear mongering.
Government of the people by the Elite for the Corporations. Yep.
NAOM
For your Sunday brain strain
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-octonion-math-that-could-underpin-physics-20180720/
NAOM
Yeah but the problem for all those fancy string theories is that the LHC has shown the Higgs Boson to behave almost boringly as originally predicted… 😉
But having said that, octonion math still sounds rather intriguing and certainly worth pursuing for it’s own sake. I just skimmed the article but will take another more in depth look later!
https://xkcd.com/171/
ARCTIC PERMAFROST SET FOR FASTER CARBON LEAK
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-permafrost-set-for-faster-carbon-leak/
The Arctic permafrost – a frozen store of at least half the planet’s organic carbon – could be about to release more carbon in the form of greenhouse gases than it absorbs in the growing season.
A 42-year study of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the north slope of Alaska reveals that the “cycling time” – that is, the time a quantity of carbon is locked away in the frozen subsurface of the tundra regions – has been reduced by more than 13% over four decades.
This means that in response to global warming, the world’s greatest single store of ancient sunshine in the form of peat and other preserved vegetation is about to surrender yet more carbon dioxide and methane, and accelerate the process.
I’d guess there will be a continuing stream of these types of papers now, each indicating slightly worse news than the last. It’s noticeable that each news story about heat waves or wildfires in the high latitudes has something like “it’s feared this may lead to acceleration in the permafrost melt,” which could be read as “as long as this one event doesn’t get any worse then we’ll be OK”. Well we won’t I’m afraid.
‘It’s noticeable that each news story about heat waves or wildfires in the high latitudes has something like “it’s feared this may lead to acceleration in the permafrost melt,” which could be read as “as long as this one event doesn’t get any worse then we’ll be OK”.’
That kind of language seems most targeted to those living nearest the equator, as they seem to be the ones finding such news most concerning. However, climate change due to CO2 makes the smallest effects happen at the equator, ironically. There the temperature has essentially remained stable for millions of years. The impact of possible climate change due to CO2 would be found principally in the high and mid latitudes.
However, climate change due to CO2 makes the smallest effects happen at the equator, ironically. There the temperature has essentially remained stable for millions of years.
That’s just plain wrong! Furthermore temperature is not the only change that we need to worry about.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-could-push-earths-rains-northward/
Global Warming Could Push Earth’s Rains Northward
As the Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern, Earth’s rain belts may shift to the North
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2017/06/20/heat-waves-2100/#.W1W8yvlKjIU
It’s Not The Heat…
Another important factor is the humidity. When the air is saturated with water, our sweat doesn’t dry as quickly, robbing our bodies of their primary means of heat dissipation. When humidity nears 100 percent, temperatures below 100 degrees can be deadly. Factoring this into their analysis, the researchers estimate that many areas around the equator could see near-constant deadly temperatures by 2100 — rendering them effectively uninhabitable.
And the list just goes on and on!
Don’t worry George, Trump is on it! We are going to bomb Iran back into the stone age and that will compensate for all the CO2 and CH4 leaking out of the permafrost by taking all their oil production off line in one fell swoop. Then we will tackle the Great Russian Bear! Pretty soon the US will be self sufficient in energy and we will be the only country in the world left burning any fossil fuels… A little extra radiation from the nuclear fallout will be a small price to pay!
Peace! 😉
I think the first question to ask is why we are fighting with Iran at all? What is wrong with the US that it cannot get along with Iran and wants to bring things to a head. What is behind this over the top Iran elimination talk by our leaders? It’s not just Trump, it’s not just Republicans, the Democrats have been beating that drum also.
Is the US being puppet played by the Saudi’s and Israel?
Problem with Iran- I think it might be the militant theocracy thing.
If the republicans have their way in this country we just might have our own version before too long.
Speaking of military theocracies-
Turkey is well on the way to becoming one under Erdogen (?sp).
Saudi is one de facto.
Israel has been flirting with the idea, but still has a pretty big block of modern secular voters stemming the tide thus far.
Fundamentalism does attract desperate people. A lot of Trumps voters are both fundamentalists and desperate.
So how do you label the USA?
Robert Reich: We’re Living a Constitutional Crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYVgbRYp_5s
USA- battle of theocratic oligarchy vs apathy vs social democrats. The outcome is up in the air.
If we change the labeling around a bit, we get the acronym Battle of the TOADS.
“I think the first question to ask is why we are fighting with Iran at all? ”
Because USA is Israel’s poodle. Israel has peace with all Sunni states in the region and zero Shiite states. That’s were USA comes in. Israel is willing to fight Iran right down to the last American.
If Mueller wants to look into foreign interference in USA elections and foreign policy he should start with Israel.
https://theintercept.com/2017/12/05/michael-flynn-jared-kushner-israel-settlements-trump/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/01/michael-flynn-israel-lobbying-russia-united-nations
Israel is just another country to me; like Belgium or New Zealand or Kenya. I fail to understand why most Americans find it to be such a special case.
If Turkey was working towards extinguishing Belgium, I think the US would stick up for Belgium too.
Do you consider US a poodle of S. Korea? How many troops have we had there for how long?
Sometimes you make choices to stick up for your friends, even if they don’t have a billion barrels of oil.
Ludwig?
Seattle and the Socialist: The Battle Raging Between Amazon and the Far Left
By Victor Luckerson
https://www.theringer.com/tech/2018/7/17/17578524/seattle-amazon-kshama-sawant-socialist-local-politics
It’s always the perfect temperature inside the Amazon Spheres. More than 40,000 plants sourced from tropical forests in 30 countries populate the four-story glass edifice, which doubles as a workspace and lounge for company employees. During the day, the lush vegetation is kept healthy at a temperate 72 degrees and 60 percent humidity, mimicking Costa Rica’s Central Valley, a haven for expats who have left their home countries for paradise. The cavernous structure also includes waterfalls, winding canopy walkways, and fish from the actual Amazon River. Heat is piped in using recycled energy from a nearby data center, ensuring that downtown Seattle’s warmest respite isn’t a drag on the power grid.
Seattle, like a lot of American cities, has become a boomtown split between haves and have-nots. Here, though, many of the haves can be ID’d from afar by the blue lanyards hanging from their necks as they swarm fast-casual restaurants during lunch hour. Amazon is Seattle’s largest employer, its greatest occupier of office space, and its most prized economic engine. The company is also one of the reasons the city has endured skyrocketing housing prices, ever-expanding waves of gentrification, and a huge spike in homelessness over the past several years.
By reaching a level of success that outpaced even its own ambitious projections, Amazon has detonated what some critics call a “prosperity bomb” in Seattle, leaving the less affluent to deal with the fallout. Kshama Sawant, a City Council member who has cast herself as the local foil to CEO Jeff Bezos, wants to lob a bomb right back. “It is class warfare,” she tells me, as the chants from an anti-ICE protest at Seattle’s immigrant detention center ring out behind us. Here, among Seattle’s activist left, she’s in her element—passersby greet her warmly every few minutes, and a woman wearing a Seattle Fire Department sweatshirt swoops in to take a selfie. “We cannot base our needs for affordable housing on whether or not the billionaires are going to agree with us. … This is a consequence of capitalism. So we cannot expect those that are benefiting from the system to fight against the system.”
Whether it wants to be or not, Seattle has become an incubator for the ideological conflicts among liberals that are poised to erupt on the national stage during the midterm elections and beyond. As the city struggles to decide just how far left it wants to drift, housing prices, Amazon’s head count, and the homeless population all continue to rise. “We’re fighting for a tax on big business to build affordable housing,” Sawant says. “But underlying that demand is really a deeper question: Who has the right to live in our cities?”
Karma?
Texas Smashes 1925 Heat Record as Power Prices Surge on Demand
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/07/19/texas-smashes-1925-heat-record-as-power-prices-surge-on-demand#gs._L2uqYs
Texas was set to break its power-demand record for the second day in a row, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s grid operator. “It’s insanely hot here,” said Ercot spokeswoman Leslie Sopko. “You can only be outside if you’re in a swimming pool.”
Wholesale prices for electricity secured a day in advance reached three-year highs, soaring above $1,500 a megawatt-hour for several hours in the region on Wednesday and Thursday, as people blasted their air conditioners to stay cool.
Interesting temperature anomaly graphic-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4Ra2HR27pQ
Very nice, thanks. I will call that the Blossoming of the Great Porcupine.
Similar, but more graphically dramatic, to some research I posted a while ago showing how portions of the globe were moving to entirely new temperature regimes.
Here is NASA/IPCC prognostication on future global temperature and precipitation changes.
To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated mean model results for each of the four emissions scenarios. The final products are visual representations how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th century. The changes shown compare the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000. This baseline is different from the IPCC report, which uses a 1986-2005 baseline. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in the report, even though the same model data is used.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11376
The scale on the right appears to go from -1 to +25F in the temperature segment.
That NASA simulation is scary ugly.
I think that one of the motivating factors behind the ‘denial’ phenomena is the idea
that ignorance is bliss. Many people just don’t want the shiny light of an ugly truth shone in their eyes. They don’t have the mental bandwidth to digest the ramifications. I’m not sure any of us really do.
And this is the averaged, government stamped version.
The tiny creature that secretly powers the planet
Oceanographer Penny Chisholm tells the story of a tiny ocean creature you’ve probably never heard of: Prochlorococcus, the most abundant photosynthetic species on the planet. A marine microbe that has existed for millions of years, Prochlorococcus wasn’t discovered until the mid-1980s — but its ancient genetic code may hold clues to how we can reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylOlZz7s52Q&t=784s
Yep I posted on that a few weeks ago. It’s just another example of how little we grasp of the incredible complexity of non linear natural systems. Yet we have daily examples of people who are confident we can geoengineer our way out of our multiple predicaments! The depth of their ignorance and cluelessness is truly mind boggling.
Geo-engineering is not a plan, it is an act of panic and desperation.
There is no way to avoid the pain of our leaving behind the toxic and destructive way of mankind. If the planet does not go anoxic and there is enough life left to move forward, the next few centuries will be the best education and learning experience mankind could ever hope for or ever get. Only in the fire of chaos is the true character revealed.
Toward a more oily world.
Trump moving forward to end California’s authority to set clean-air standards, mandate electric-car sales
The Trump administration will seek to revoke California’s authority to regulate automobile emissions — including its mandate for electric-car sales — in a proposed revision of Obama-era standards, according to three people familiar with the plan.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-california-clean-air-20180723-story.html
Whatever happened to “states rights”?
What happened to Congress declaring war? What happened to the Senate giving consent to treaties? What happened to securing the blessings of liberty to ourselves and posterity? What happened to not adhering to our enemies? Whatever happened to promoting the general welfare? What happened to the separation of church and state?
The dust bin is getting quite full at this point.
What happened to Congress declaring war… etc…etc…?
You kiddin, Bro?!
You livin in de past?! De only thing dat matter now, is, whether or not, an open declaration of war, contravenes Twitter’s Terms of Service… And as far as I can tell, it apparently does not!
Trivializing strong truths is a complicit act.
Obviously, all those California cars need to be painted orange with a Confederate battle flag on the roof….Trump wouldn’t dare interfere with those states’ rights.
I think ‘inept orange dumpling’ would have to send in troops to enforce that. Gov Brown controls the national guard deployment, as I understand it.
This was mentioned in that article I posted last week. This is being done in order to get a legal case that can go to the Supreme Court in the next year or two. By then Brett Kavanaugh will be on the court and the conservative majority can rule against anything Blue States like California do. States trying to regulate climate change is an interstate commerce issue that states don’t have the constitutional authority over. Only the federal government can regulate climate change.
We shall see— CA is the 5th largest GDP on the planet, and has the opinion Trump is a idiot.
What is he going to do? CA can make the US a third world county fast.
You do have some nasty corps in Washington, Boston is a leader, the Dog Track in NY, a few bomb factories in Texas and Colorado.
It’s late stage capitalism (actually a corporate state)— the F150 drivers and rural poor are not going to add much.
Please explain: … nasty corps in Washington, Boston is a leader, the Dog Track in NY, a few bomb factories in Texas and Colorado. for the uninitiated.
“Only the federal government can regulate climate change.”
Jesus suffering f*ck that’s gotta be the stupidest thing I’ve read in quite a while lol
“Only the federal government can regulate climate change.”
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Check out the latest Quinnipiac Poll.
Trump’s approval…38% Trumps disapproval…58%
38% ought to be deeply ashamed of themselves, yet they are proud. Thats deplorable (she was right).
Let’s just call it 60/40 the 4% who supposedly don’t know, are probably in a coma so they don’t really count anyway!
So why is it that the 40% who support Trump somehow think they now have a permanent mandate and they should be able to the tell the 60% who don’t support him that they are now in power, and the rights of the 60% majority just don’t count for anything anymore?!
I think the 60% could get really pissed off at this arrogant attitude and might actually vote next time. Ya never know, stranger things have happened.
Let Donnie run this puppy into the ground.
Once we are on the other side, the survivors (if any) can try and put something back together.
In the meantime a little Twitter reality check, I know, I know, a rather ironic choice of words but it’s our reality, (pun intended) so go with the flow 😉
Eric Trump retweeting comments by Trump supporters on Twitter:
@sahilkapur
Among Republicans, 88% approve.
That’s the highest intra-party rating of any president at this stage since the dawn of modern polling, except Bush post-9/11.
Typical response:
@MLOwens1962
Sweetheart, only about 37 percent of Americans are registered Republicans. Which means that 88 percent of 37 percent isn’t that impressive. Thoughts?
7:27 AM – Jul 24, 2018
Well, I guess Junior had a higher rating:
2002 — Source=Robert Braunwart US: Effort to weaken a UN convention against torture fails; the Bush administration is now proudly on record on the side of global warming, racism, war crimes & torture. The list of great rightwing principle grows…
For those who may be interested [IslandBoy?] there is a good site for electrical generation trends in India.
https://indiapowerreview.com/
This is the place to watch for a possible peak in India coal consumption, someday.
Nice! Bookmarked!
Here’s another little problem with really stupid ideas, like border walls!
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biy063/5057517
Nature Divided, Scientists United: US–Mexico Border Wall Threatens Biodiversity and Binational Conservation
Fences and walls erected along international boundaries in the name of national security have unintended but significant consequences for biodiversity (Trouwborst et al. 2016). In North America, along the 3200-kilometer US–Mexico border, fence and wall construction over the past decade and efforts by the Trump administration to complete a continuous border “wall” threaten some of the continent’s most biologically diverse regions. Already-built sections of the wall are reducing the area, quality, and connectivity of plant and animal habitats and are compromising more than a century of binational investment in conservation. Political and media attention, however, often understate or misrepresent the harm done to biodiversity.
We call on fellow scientists to join us in expressing unified concern over the border wall’s negative impacts on wildlife, habitat, and binational collaboration in conservation and scientific research. Below, we describe three ways in which border infrastructure and security operations (hereafter “the border wall”) threaten biodiversity, and we outline actions to minimize these threats.
Not only is this wall a stupid idea but it is also illegal! According to both US and International Environmental Laws! Trump and the GOP are scofflaws and environmental criminals! Anyone who supports them is an accomplice by association!
“Not only is this wall a stupid idea but it is also illegal! ”
You mean things changed overnight and it’s not New Russia land of the gangster and the don’t-give-a-shit-heads? Think I will google who is still in power today. This is probably faux news.
sarc
You mean things changed overnight and it’s not New Russia land of the gangster and the don’t-give-a-shit-heads?
I guess I could play the ‘Trivializing strong truths is a complicit act’ card!
But no, this is not something that changed overnight, nor is it even on most people’s radar.
In any case, the wall is an obstacle to many endangered species, keeping them from traveling throughout their natural ranges. For the record, most fauna and flora do not suddenly stop at any artificial borders. Furthermore there are both US and international laws currently in place, that make it illegal to impede threatened species from doing what they normally do in the course of living out their lives. The wall is a very real threat to their existence!
Personally, I happen to care more about threatened species than about the whole Russian thing! I consider it to be a higher order existential threat. But, I guess that’s just me.
I guess I’m one of the few people on the planet who thinks that even talking seriously, about building a wall on the border between the US and Mexico at this juncture in the 21st century, is the most idiotic idea that anyone could possibly come up with…
Apparently there are about 60 million Americans who voted for Trump that disagree with me. Fuck all of them!
Fred, that was just advice and an example. But as one can see, unlabeled sarcasm and even labeled sarcasm can distract the conversation as well as weaken and mislead it. It also breaks down and disperses those who would otherwise be allies.
You are right!
Maybe the incessant heat down here in Florida this summer might be starting to get to me. I have been a lifelong early riser, I’m usually up before 5:00 AM and even at that time in the morning, stepping outside I’m finding it too hot to even go for a walk. My beach has been closed for the last two weeks due to high coliform bacteria counts and my reefs are dying… I haven’t been in a very good mood to say the least.
I am amazed at myself, how great it feels to just see one living wasp flying in my yard. I actually saw one! If there is one there must be more somewhere.
The world has changed so much in such a short time (if one perceptively watches nature) and the losses of what were everyday lifeforms can get one very angry and depressed.
What?! And you didn’t even call the exterminator to spray your yard like the nice gentleman who told us he sprays every time his grand kids go visit him! It’s people like you who make this world more and more dangerous by being so negligent and uncaring about the safety of others! /sarc
I was going to leave the sarc tag off 😉
Yeah, I can really see Trump taking notice of anything linked to nature. 🙁 A wall just will not stop Mexicans, they will just go straight over it – no problem. Any wall would still need to be backed up by border patrols. It would be far better to invest in the border patrol with drones, cameras and blimps. All those repuglicans who are quivering their fundamental orifices in the Twitterscape could spend their time, instead, monitoring the cameras on-line.
NAOM
Another one goes into the rear view mirror:
“The National Weather Service said a new high of 127 degrees (52.7 Celsius) was set at California’s Death Valley. Weather service forecaster Chris Outler in Las Vegas said the record broke the previous one of 126 (52 Celsius) registered for the day in 1916.”
UK met office warning that a new record high may be set by the end of the week. Locally, we are having one of the driest Julys for years.
NAOM
PS Any of our weather watchers know where I can download CSVs of the historical MMPR weather data?
Greenland is sucking all the cold air to itself, you guys need to learn to share the heat and cold better.
Of course one could blame the US, lots of hot air coming off of there lately.
See how much different that picture of Greenland is compared to the one you posted the other day? Graphics like these make deception too easy.
Did your mother have any children that lived?
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
. Yes Dan, the changing local weather is highly deceptive, changing from day to day. Back to your chemtrails.
UK installed wind capacity is now at 20,000Mw.
https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome
With the extended heat wave in the UK demand is quite high particularly when people get home between 5 and 6pm but unfortunately the calm air means wind has done very badly over the last few weeks.
https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=eds/main
Typically wind is producing around 1,000mw where demand is 32,000Mw, therefore the UK is burning huge amounts of gas to make up the difference. Solar would not help much in the late afternoon as solar drops to about 5% of installed capacity by then.
Thankfully we still have nuclear providing a reasonable amount otherwise things would be even worse.
France which has limited hydro power sites, is still one of the lower CO2 producing countries.
https://www.iea.org/media/countries/France.pdf
Germany on the other hand despite having over 100Gw of installed wind and solar(a third more than French installed nuclear) Is still one of the dirtiest countries when it comes to electricity production.
What are German politicians doing, yes you guessed it they are closing down their nuclear and building a gas pipe line to Russia.
Here is how global renewable energy was in 2016.
Solar and Biomass seem to get a double dip on the RHS chart?
NAOM
In what way.?Traditional biomass is different than the other biomasses. In the modern renewables category, one provides electricity, the other direct heating. Same with solar, it too appears twice. One is PV or thermal to provide electric, the other is direct thermal for heating buildings and hot water heating.
Europe is way ahead on using solar for direct thermal heating.
Ah, OK, it is clearer now. Thank you.
NAOM
I’d like to share this picture in another forum.
Could you tell me the source please?
Renewable Energy in Total Final Energy Consumption, by Sector, 2015
Germany seems to have some issues with one of our favorite corporations here in the US:
https://sub.media/video/against-the-google-campus/
Am I missing something?
You mean beside the huge fine against Google by the EU and the fact that it is (like Amazon) trying to take over the world (in an internet/communication/social media/cultural/isolate the individual, way)?
Market Summary > Alphabet Inc Class A
NASDAQ: GOOGL
1,275.94 USD +17.79 (1.41%)
http://www.rushkoff.com/books/throwing-rocks-at-the-google-bus/
Yes, you can buy his book on Amazon 😉
Resistance is futile, you have already been assimilated!
Have fun with this one:
https://www.ted.com/talks/supasorn_suwajanakorn_fake_videos_of_real_people_and_how_to_spot_them
Supasorn SuwajanakornatTED2018
Fake videos of real people — and how to spot them
A pretty good summary of what the US and world are facing. Failed experiments.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176452/