EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – July 2020 Edition with data for May

161 thoughts to “EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – July 2020 Edition with data for May”

1. Any Comments not related to Oil and Natural Gas Production in this thread please. Thanks.

2. Post Again..
   On the verge of an Energy Crisis
   “We have now completed a full investment cycle in Energy that started 40 years ago”
   https://seekingalpha.com/article/4365363-goehring-rozencwajg-natural-resource-market-commentary-q2-2020-on-verge-of-energy-crisis
   We are meeting with City planners who are also in the NG Business. The sole Mega.monolopy.fu has a proposal to drop in a PV System for free for the city so city “management” can be green hero solar warriors. In the Sunshine wasted state it’s illegal for IOU Generation assets to be located on 3rd Party property but they are selling the energy only back to the city at Full Retail. Hello.. smell’s like trojan horse poo.
   Eyes glaze over when I mention that NG prices WILL Normalize and perhaps only the wealthy will enjoy hot showers. Affordable Energy is everything. Who is investing in NG besides Warren and Charlie?

3. I don’t know how long it will take, but Florida, the ”sunshine wasted” state will eventually come around politically, and go for it. The dollars and cents case for solar electricity there is getting to be more compelling from one year to the next.

   Note that N C is not a sunshine state compared to places such as Arixona or New Mexico, but N C is second only to California in solar. Right wing politicians aren’t necessarily in the vest pocket of the fossil fuel industry, lol, although I should point out that NC is trended blue, and would BE blue, except for the Republican’s gerrymandering the shit out of NC.

   In other news, https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/08/07/thin-film-amorphous-silicon-greenhouses-begin-to-sprout/

   Depending on how much these semi transparent panels cost, there could be a huge market for them in the greenhouse industry, which is a lot bigger than most people would guess.

   1. NC is the Only Southern state with a Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard.
      It’s always a solar advocate that bends a lawmakers ear in the early days that made change.
      https://www.dsireusa.org/
      Neither Party is DG Friendly, it removes their control and ability to tax power.
      Now the Utilities like Big Pharma has things locked down. Paperwork “soft costs” costs of installation exceed panel costs. Now the new Grid tie standard gives Mega.Utility.iou.fu control of edge generation resources since the grid is just not fixable.

4. The last table in the post is for solar, I think. Islandboy can correct me if I am mistaken.

   1. That is what I was thinking too.

      Solar + wind had surpassed coal generation this year (at least during the summer) for the first time.
      I guessing they will surpass nuclear in 2-3 years, and at that point will be number two on the list.
      And at about that time solar will catch up to wind, then begin a long trend of far outpacing it.

      Its still early days for the solar industry, however as an example-Enphase stock price is up over 1000% in 2 years, whereas Chevron is down 29%. Its an example of the energy industry trend.
      Enphase makes semiconductor-based microinverters, which converts energy at the individual solar module level from DC to AC. California based. They are getting into the energy management and storage business now too.
      Its all about electrification.

   2. You are not mistaken. I was experimenting with different ways of presenting the data and ended up rushing to publish the post. The title of the table will show “solar” in future posts. Below is a view of the same data presented in order of contribution of solar to total generation in the various states.

      

   3. And a similar table for wind:

      

      1. Lovely ?

   4. Anybody here remember when one of the arguments against renewables was that, they would destabilize the grid if they got to be more than a very low percentage of the share of total generation?

      1. Indeed, but it has always been a pretty naive notion. The ‘grid’ , and energy management all the way down to the residential level, is undergoing rapid evolution.
         examples
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w63C6Nd1MzQ
         https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/14/tesla-steps-into-the-utility-space-with-new-grid-controller-patent/

5. How fast is the solar industry expected to grow, compared to wind, over the next decade or two in the USA?

   And what total percentage of the solar industry is expected to be small scale, or behind the meter, in ten or twenty years?

   I can easily see tight fisted people such as most of my family being willing to spend twenty thousand dollars or more for a home or farm pv system and buying an electric car or pickup truck ……… once they see first hand how well these new technologies hold up over the long term.

   People in my situation often own two, or even three vehicles, with the second and third one used only occasionally as needed. This sounds extravagant until you stop to consider that you can own three older vehicles for the cost of owning one new one, taking into account taxes, tags, insurance, repairs and DEPRECIATION.

   I have an old car, and an old pickup truck….. which I use only as necessary because it burns about twice as much gasoline per mile as the car. Both are depreciated, as a practical matter to nothing, meaning they have a market value of about a thousand for the car, and three thousand for the truck. So long as they are kept up in good working order, neither one will depreciate any more. I need only liability insurance. Taxes are peanuts. Repairs are trivial, compared to depreciation on a new vehicle. There’s also a bigger truck, which will haul eight tons, which is seldom used these days, but it’s cheaper to own it and use it a day or two a month than it is to hire my trucking work out.

   Bottom line, once electric cars and trucks are available used and cheap, people like me who manage their money will own two or three of them, and so the intermittent solar charging problem will pretty well be solved, because one or another of them can be plugged into the home or farm pv system all day every day.

   A hell of a lot of rural people are spending up to a hundred bucks a week on gasoline, if two family members are driving a long way to separate work places. It’s well worth it to them, making it possible to live in the country, closer to nature with privacy enough to take a leak outside without risking arrest.

   Domestic PV systems installers are going to be working eighty hours a week ten or fifteen years down the road, assuming Old Man Business As Usual continues to stagger along.

   1. 99% of Wind is central generation, it is owned by MegaUlility.fu. It does not scale down like PV unless you live on a ridge or like to climb towers.
      DG will snowball and breakout, it’s almost ready. Look at GNRC stock in last 6 months. They want in … bad.
      Mega.utility.fu price .15 , Rooftop PV .05 What about Distributed PV do you not understand?

      1. Longtimber,

         Is the price 0.05 including battery backup? Seems low, note that most people are not qualified to do a self install correctly.

         What is the real price of a non-grid tied system with an average output of 680 Watts over a 365 day year in St Louis, MO (supposedly that location has average insolation for the US)? I am thinking it will be more than 5 cents per kWh.

         1. .05 cents is strictly GT. For the loads that require nighttime operation, A trip thru a battery will add 50 cents /- 50% to the 5 cents. Unless you are net metered, then you get to use the grid as a battery, Hence the Edison Institutes (funded by mega.utility.iou.fu) war on net metering.
            Battery production is just getting off the ground so to speak, 200-gigawatt hours a year currently with is next to nothing.. yet. expect 100 fold increase in next yesterday. So you design systems to go around the Battery. Solar generators are the next big thing. Check out at professor hobo on youtube.
            In 2020, About 10% of the systems we do have storage.

            1. Longtimber,

               What is GT? Also it is not clear how DG is done without batteries.

               I would think we would look at an average system with storage and lifetime output and system cost and could figure cost per kWh. Not a simple calculation as it depends on location electricity needs, etc.

               1. GT is grid tie.
                  There is much you can do PV direct.
                  You can light a house with 2 Lithium iron phosphate batteries Overbuild PV since it is cheap. Add to batteries when viable

               2. How did you calculate the 50 cents per battery kWh-discharge?

      2. I’m all for distributed generation, and fully support anybody and everybody having a home or small business pv system, when the numbers work.

         I don’t like big powerful corporations any better than you do, but up until now, they’ve been a necessary evil in the electricity industry. But my opinion, for what it’s worth, is that we will have to have the grid more or less forever, and probably almost as much fossil fuel capacity as we do now for another twenty years or maybe even longer.

         But more and more of that fossil fuel capacity will be sitting idle more and more of the time.

         Distributed solar generation numbers will work better every year from here out, in terms of bang per buck invested.

         So I do see very fast indefinite growth in small scale pv.

         It’s as obvious as the noonday sun that home scale or small business scale wind power simply doesn’t WORK…… it costs too much, and will likely continue to cost too much pretty much as far as the eye can see, except in rare instances where the wind resource is REALLY good.

         For now I’m thinking solar farms, tied into the existing grid, are the most economical source of solar electricity, because of the economies of scale involved , from start to finish. Putting things up by the acre on the ground is dirt cheap compared to putting them in place here, there and elsewhere on rooftops, with salesmen, building inspectors, and forty or fifty homeowners, plus a couple of dozen various tradesmen involved in setting as many panels as fit on one acre in solar farm.

         So since the grid is THERE already, maybe we should consider managing it on a publicly owned utility basis.

         We get electricity in many rural areas via Rural Electric Co ops. I used to get mine from one in Caroline county Virginia. The co op owns the local grid, buying the actual electricity from a fossil fuel and or nuke plant in this case.

         We could have MORE solar electricity faster and for less money this way, if the political problems can be solved.

         I’m thinking that utility scale solar power, now that panels have gotten so cheap, will grow faster than wind power for some time to come, on global basis, because solar farms are so much simpler and easier to build than wind farms.

         The combination of home scale pv plus electric cars will be irresistible to cost conscious consumers if they can get reasonable financing for the upfront cost.

         There’s going to be a hell of a political fight when it comes to deciding how we will pay for maintaining the grid and the necessary fossil fuel back up capacity.

         The grid itself will be distributing less and less power, with more power being generated locally. The fossil fuel plants will see an even bigger loss of customers.

         My guess is that eventually a grid connection will be coupled to a mandatory monthly minimum bill for residential customers who have their own PV systems.

         This would be a surcharge above and beyond any charges billed to homeowners without pv.

   2. Mac, Re: North Carolina and SE USA check out
      https://cleanenergy.org/
      https://youtu.be/2I4bczQRSXk

      1. cleanenergry.org [The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy] looks like a great organization

   3. OFM,

      At the World level solar output in TWh has grown at an average rate of 28.6% per year from 2012 to 2019, based on data from BP. As distributed grid (DG) becomes more well known, the pace of growth in total World solar output (utility scale plus DG) may well accelerate. So a 30% annual growth rate might prove conservative. BP has current US solar output at 108 TWh per year in 2019 with total electricity output at 5426 TWh per year in 2019. If we assume a 28% growth rate for the US from 2020 to 2035, solar output rises to 5608 TWh in 2035. Also note that the growth rate for US solar output was 35% from 2012 to 2019, it is possible wide use of DG solar could lead to sustained growth in solar output at 35% per year, which would get us to 5343 TWh per year in 2032, about 98.5% of total US electrical output in 2019. Note that electricity use has grown slowly from 2008 to 2018 (0.3%/year) in the US. That might change if transport becomes electrified over the next 12 to 15 years.

      1. Thanks, Dennis

         Now another question, or the same one, rephrased.

         Do you think that the solar energy industry will be growing faster than wind energy, so that it eventually produces more juice than the wind industry, say three or four decades down the road?

         Anybody else have an opinion ?

         My personal opinion is that since the solar resource is good enough in most places to make home or small business sized pv practical, especially as the cost of it keeps falling, that solar will eventually dominate, on an American national and world wide basis.

         Small wind is never going to be very important in my opinion, except maybe in a very few places with a truly excellent wind resource. Towers and the construction there of are mature technologies, and I can’t see any way setting up small wind turbines is ever going to be cost efficient except in a very small part of the country, in terms of population. A home sized turbine might work in Iowa, but not many people live in rural Iowa, compared to say rural North Carolina.

         1. Sorry to butt in Ofm, but I think you are absolutely correct.
            PV is going to fast outgrow wind
            -the potential sites for deployment are vast for solar compared to wind.
            -the technical, financial and permitting barrier to entry is small for solar, and very difficult for wind
            -for PV you can scale your deployment to a huge array of sizes, from 5 panels to tens of thousands, depending on the capital and space available, whereas big wind (financially viable) comes only in big chunks 3-12MW units on 200 ft towers.
            -Wind requires a big grid connection. Difficult to permit and contract for. PV can been done in much smaller chunks making these issues considerably less onerous.

            For wind to be viable, developers must target the windiest locations. The big untapped resource is offshore. There will be big growth in certain offshore locations. Offshore Maine will probably end up with the equivalent of about 5 full scale nuclear reactors (1000MW) by 2040. There will revived economies centered around some of the coastal commercial/industrial ports in windy zones.
            https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ports-and-harbors-how-us-offshore-wind-developers-are-anchoring-their-claim

            

            1. OFM and Hickory,

               I tend to think solar will grow to a larger share than wind, wind has been growing lately at about 15% per year and solar at 28%. Wind might see some further growth as deep water offshore wind becomes viable, but I still think by 2035, the amount of electricity produced by solar will be more than wind.

   4. How fast is the solar industry expected to grow, compared to wind, over the next decade or two in the USA? Wind has moving parts. Crystal Si PV is a magic rock. Nuff said.

      1. Hi LT,

         I think you’ve nailed it, but you never can tell how long such things take.

6. So coal’s share of electricity generation in the U.S. has been cut in half since Trump became President. MAGA!

7. Bill Gates-
   ‘COVID-19 is awful. Climate change could be worse.’
   https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/Climate-and-COVID-19?WT.mc_id=20200804100000_COVID19-and-Climate_BG-TW_&WT.tsrc=BGTW

   1. From the article

      The economic picture is also stark. The range of likely impacts from climate change and from COVID-19 varies quite a bit, depending on which economic model you use. But the conclusion is unmistakable: In the next decade or two, the economic damage caused by climate change will likely be as bad as having a COVID-sized pandemic every ten years. And by the end of the century, it will be much worse if the world remains on its current emissions path.

      Obviously Gates is not a ‘Peakoil’, etc believer.
      By the way, I think it will be worse if the current emissions path will remain for only one or two more decades; this because of the several positive feedback loops in the climate system already active.

      1. Gates has obviously been corrupted by the folks who think because a “consensus” has developed around climate change science, all bits and pieces of the science is truth. In reality, he should know better then to pretend he has any deep understanding of what drives the complexities of global climate.

         1. Don’t underestimate his depth of understanding on these issues. He studies hard, he is smart as they come, he has world class consultants and advisors. He does not jump to conclusions.

            1. I think Gates may have hired climate scientist Ken Caldeira as he also worked with Nathan Myrhvold as part of his patent business.

               Climate scientists don’t understand much when it comes to natural climate variability. The man-made climate change is simple stuff in comparison — it’s just a straightforward change in radiative heating due to the increased level o GHGs. But the natural climate change has everything to do with calculating fluid dynamics and how the ocean responds to slight changes in the orbit of the earth and moon.

               

               I pester Caldeira quite often on twitter about this. He claims that there have been no breakthroughs in climate science for probably 50 years. But this is not the thread for this — take it over to the latest non-petroleum thread to discuss further 🙂

         2. My guess is Gates knows the difference between “then” and “than.”

         3. for Steve Haner
            https://youtu.be/5-bnP2xGj_4?t=6

8. Who would have thought? I’m impressed, because the pope has a huge audience, 1.2 billion Catholics — including about 70 million in the U.S.

   FIVE YEARS AFTER SPEAKING OUT ON CLIMATE CHANGE, POPE FRANCIS SOUNDS AN URGENT ALARM

   That’s good news, unfortunately, the National Catholic Reporter concluded that the pope’s message had not been as widely received as Francis had hoped: “Sadly, the urgency of this ecological conversion seems not to have been grasped by international politics, where the response to the problems raised by global issues such as climate change remains very weak and a source of grave concern.”

   https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06082020/climate-change-pope-francis

9. A quick incite into one segment of the energy future-
   ‘Who Will Own the Hydrogen Future: Oil Companies or Utilities?’

   https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/utilities-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-follow-oil-majors-hydrogen-lead

   1. There will not be a hydrogen future. That joke has been around for over a decade now.

      The Hydrogen Hoax

      The trouble is that making hydrogen requires more energy than the hydrogen so produced can provide. Hydrogen, therefore, is not a source of energy. It simply is a carrier of energy. And it is, as we shall see, an extremely poor one.

      The spokesmen for the hydrogen hoax claim that hydrogen will be manufactured from water via electrolysis. It is certainly possible to make hydrogen this way, but it is very expensive — so much so, that only four percent of all hydrogen currently produced in the United States is produced in this manner. The rest is made by breaking down hydrocarbons, through processes like pyrolysis of natural gas or steam reforming of coal.

      1. I disagree with the view that tries to put down an innovation, like solar energy, by saying that it will not save the world or be some kind of miracle.
         Likewise, hydrogen isn’t about to become the worlds primary carrier of energy.
         Nonetheless it will have a role.
         Let me draw out an example.
         Sometime in the next 10-20 there will be very large deployment of Maine offshore wind. They have a massive untapped resource there.
         There will be times at night when the supply of electricity will exceed demand. At those times you can capture the energy not being used somehow. Chemical batteries. fly wheels, onshore pumped hydro, for example.
         What the utilities and oil companies are now beginning to explore on prototype level scale is using the energy to to generate hydrogen as an energy storage medium, to be used in fuel cells when needed. Its pretty straightforward.

         Another example is’ stranded’ resource. That refers to electrical generation that is not connected to the grid. There are places with huge solar or wind resource that are not near the grid. With hydrogen production instead of the grid, these places could be utilized for energy production.

         So, the joke will likely be on the doubters who have not thought past step one on this.

         1. Hydrogen molecules are so tiny, it is very difficult to build a material that will hold it cost effectively, from what I can understand. When you have companies like Energy Vault and other flow battery storage systems easily breaking the $100 barrier, I personally doubt hydrogen storage will ever be a widespread thing.

            1. $100 per kWh is way too expensive for seasonal storage. Let’s say the US needed 2 weeks of storage. How much would it cost?

               The US uses an average of 450 gigawatts of power. Multiply that by 24 hours times 14 days and we get 151,200 gigawatt hours (GWh), or 151 terawatt-hours. Multiply that by ten cents per watt-hour (aka $100 per kWh) and you get $15 trillion. That’s our annual GDP.

               Hydrogen can be stored in very, very cheap salt caverns, like methane.

               So, what about the cost of the electricity? Electrolysis is inefficient – doesn’t that make it prohibitively expensive? Well, remember that we’ll only need seasonal storage after we’ve built a LOT of solar and wind power, and we’re going after 100% renewable power on the grid. At that point there will be more than enough renewables on average, and there will be a lot of surplus in the summer, during the day. That power will be essentially free. So, even if the full cycle is only 25% efficient, that’s fine.

               The remaining question is generating capacity. Fuel cells are efficient, but remember: we don’t need efficiency here, because the power is very, very cheap. So, we go with cheap generation: single cycle turbines, or even internal combustion engines.

               1. I haven’t heard that there are all that many salt caverns handy. I don’t think hydrogen will be a big piece of the solution, but some hydrogen could come in very handy indeed, especially if large stationary fuel cells keep getting cheaper and cheaper.

                  I can’t see life without the grid. It’s not all about storing energy for later use, it’s also about moving it from where it’s in excess to where it’s in short supply.

                  The REAL question as I see it is not whether manufacturing hydrogen via electrolysis is efficient, but rather this one.

                  Are there OTHER, BETTER uses for otherwise surplus wind and solar electricity?

                  Maybe flow batteries will prove to be cheaper for stationary use.

                  And maybe manufacturing alcohol or synthetic diesel or gasoline will prove to be cheaper than using hydrogen as motor fuel.

               2. haven’t heard that there are all that many salt caverns handy.

                  There quite enough salt caverns. OTOH, H2 can be stored in all the same places as NG.

                  “ Underground hydrogen storage is the practice of hydrogen storage in caverns, salt domes and depleted oil and gas fields”

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_storage#Stationary_hydrogen_storage

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_hydrogen_storage

               3. Hydrogen is the smallest element. If you pumped your tires up with hydrogen, they would go flat in a day or so. The hydrogen would simply leak through the tires.

                  Salt caverns are not rubber, they are far more porous. You can hold hydrogen within salt? Really now? I think the hydrogen would see salt as a sieve, something to simply slip through.

                  How does this salt cavern for hydrogen storage work?

                  From your link: The storage of large quantities of liquid hydrogen underground can function as grid energy storage.

                  Bullshit!
                  At normal room temperature, hydrogen is a gas. Hydrogen becomes a liquid at very low temperatures, around -425 degrees F or so.

                  Minus 425 degrees F, otherwise hydrogen becomes a gas. You are going to keep the hydrogen in these salt caverns at minus 425 degrees F? I do not think so. The hydrogen would soon become a gas and blow the lid of this frigging salt dome.

                  I am sorry Nick, but this whole story don’t pass the smell test.

               4. “ Salt caverns are alternatives to porous storages; see Figure 7.5. The caverns first have to be constructed in the salt formation by injecting water through an access well and dissolving the salt…Because of its visco-plastic properties, rock salt is extremely tight to gases like natural gas or hydrogen—even under high pressure. The enormous open cavities which these caverns represent, with volumes from a few 10,000 s to more than 1,000,000 m3 at operating pressures of up to 20 MPa and more…”

                  https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/salt-cavern

               5. Nick, your first link stated: The storage of large quantities of liquid hydrogen underground can function as grid energy storage.

                  Now we both know that this is bullshit. Are you saying that: “Yes, the first story was bullshit but the caverns may still stand up under the enormous pressure of gaseous hydrogen as described in my latest link?”

                  Is that your latest claim?

               6. “The main disadvantage, however, is the need to dispose of large volumes of saturated brine in an environmentally friendly way.” ~ ScienceDirect.com

               7. Ron,

                  You should be careful with your last minute edits. In this case, you added your comment about liquid storage after I replied. So…you shouldn’t be surprised that my reply didn’t address your last minute additional reference to liquid storage.

                  As far as that concerns: you’re taking it out of context: it’s one sentence, talking about one way of storing H2. Most projects store H2 underground as a gas, and that’s what I was talking about.

                  As for high pressures – what makes you think that salt caverns can’t handle them?

               8. Nick, I googled it. I found several pages where they were discussing salt caverns for underground storage of H2, but not one where they were actually doing it. I didn’t even find a page where they stated that large scale production of H2 was even happening.

                  I simply believe that, when they do get around to trying it, they will find the problems of large scale storage of the smallest element, under great pressures, greater than they can overcome.

               9. Ron,

                  H2 can be somewhat annoying to handle and store – that’s one of the many reasons why it’s unlikely to be used for light passenger vehicles. But it’s been used at a large scale for industrial applications for a long time. Here’s just one example:

                  “ The Chevron Phillips Clemens Terminal in Texas has stored hydrogen since the 1980s in a solution-mined salt cavern. The cavern roof is about 2,800 feet (850 m) underground. The cavern is a cylinder with a diameter of 160 feet (49 m), a height of 1,000 feet (300 m), and a usable hydrogen capacity of 1,066 million cubic feet (30.2×106 m3), or 2,520 metric tons (2,480 long tons; 2,780 short tons).[10]”

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_hydrogen_storage

         2. Yes, hydrogen is the energy carrier of the future… and always will be in the future.

            1. Ron,

               That’s for cars. I agree that H2 is silly for cars. But..not for utility-scale storage, for seasonal backup. See my comment above.

               Big fleet vehicles could use H2 as well, especially container ships.

               Here’s an article:

               “Power-to-gas technologies, which soak up excess renewables that would otherwise have been curtailed to produce methane or hydrogen, are an option that can be seriously considered for California’s path to carbon neutrality, Karl Meeusen, senior advisor of infrastructure and regulatory policy at the California Independent System Operator, said during a webinar Tuesday.

               The approach is an integral component of California’s “optimal path” to a decarbonized electric sector, as outlined by technology company Wärtsilä, and would equip the state with a distributed, long-term energy storage system “with durations of weeks, not hours, providing seasonal balancing and security of supply during extreme weather events,” according to a new Wärtsilä whitepaper.

               “What’s cool about this is it’s seasonal time shifting — so it’s taking energy from when your renewable production is the largest, and distributing it out to the shoulder months when renewable energy is at its lowest,” Joseph Ferrari, Wärtsilä’s general manager of utility market development, said.”

               https://www.utilitydive.com/news/power-to-gas-could-be-key-to-californias-long-duration-storage-needs-stak/577433/

            2. Education can be a glorious thing, if the opportunity is taken advantage of.

         3. The folks who I know working in hydrogen have always been very optimistic about the potential for carbon as a storage medium. Of course hydrogen has been over hyped for decades because of the confusion about whether it is an energy source or a storage mechanism. But there are some schemes that use hydrogen generated directed by PV converters immersed in the water that are really promising. I worked for years with John Turner’s group at NREL doing this sort of thing. But yes it seems like it is always the storage medium of the future. They used to say that about GaAs. That it was the Silicon of the future and always would be. However there are an awful lot of practical applications for compound semiconductors these days. We all have cell phones after all. So, it will start with niche applications. Doubt if we will live to see ubiquitous H2 taps at the local filling station, but I’ve been wrong before.

      2. “There will not be a hydrogen future. That joke has been around for over a decade now.”

         Then you are telling bad jokes. 🙂

         Green hydrogen is something with future, the first GW projects are build, quite a lot large scale research is also done.

         Hydrogen is more than molecular hydrogen, if you understand that, you may get an idea what actually is happening in China and in Europe.

         1. Well, it may happen… sometime in the distant future. And yes, there has been a lot of research, funded by governments giving research grants. The same thing is happening with nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion is also forever in the future.

            1. With hydrogen, the big utilities and some big oil companies have become interested enough to get to work on prototype production at more than trivial scale, in a competitive stance.
               Thats what the article was getting into-
               https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/utilities-on-both-sides-of-atlantic-follow-oil-majors-hydrogen-lead

               “To date, gigawatt-scale announcements in the hydrogen sector have been dominated by the likes of Shell, BP and Equinor,”
               “In the U.S., NextEra [the nations largest electric utility] recently announced a 20-megawatt electrolyzer, essentially designed to produce green hydrogen for self-consumption at a gas-fired plant in Florida. The $65 million pilot project will be fueled by the Sunshine State’s ample solar resources with the hydrogen mixed into the feedstock for the 1.75-gigawatt Okeechobee gas plant. It could be up and running in 2023”

            2. A different kind of “solar”
               There is a new kid in town of far fetched energy. Plasma discharge from the magnetosphere. I think it was originally Tesla’s idea but was never really researched. All the power we’ll ever need right above our heads.
               Or some people really get ZAPPED.

               What about a pinpoint sized “sun” in your basement?
               SAFIRE (video @ bottom)
               https://aureon.ca/

               They think the sun is a “node” on a strand of electric current in the plasma which fills outer space, not nuclear powered as we thought.
               (Sun is evidently cooler BELOW the surface than above, suggesting an
               energy flow INTO or THROUGH stars rather than out). No fusion there.

               Their theory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AUA7XS0TvA
               I can’t get anybody to sit still long enough to watch it.

               There are 3 more episodes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7EAlTcZFwY&list=PLv6iFgeLRKVDZicz783ES2KkTRUcL7JbG
               & plenty of discussion @ Thunderbolts.info forum.

10. Sandy Munro on Tesla’s Lead.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4MVvttOEAQ
    Sandy is pushing for Bidirectional Charging port on Teslas. That way one Tesla could give another
    Tesla some miles to the next charging point as well as run a house. This is a big deal, it turns
    any car into a rolling power delivery source. I think it’s likely that Tesla will not do it till others do
    to not dent power-wall sales. EV’s needs Batteries – Other applications such as home storage are secondary until cell and pak production ramps orders of magnitude. ~5 years??, The Honda Clarity has bidirectional charging in some markets.

    1. Bidirectional charging would greatly reduce range anxiety among EV drivers. I can’t fathom why this isn’t the norm on new EVs. If you get in a pickle you could just have your buddy come get you a quick few miles, rather than having to call a tow truck and blow $200.

       1. Customers have to start demanding it. Sheeple are energy blind. The current CCS standard was developed to exclude this possibility. Much like the current Grid Tie Grid Interactive standard can never make power independent of the utility. Thank you Edison institute. Go to you car dealer and ask them do I look like I’m totally Stupid? You will only buy an EV when they get it right.

11. Thank for the report and how can I get invest letter.

12. “The staggering death toll of the coronavirus pandemic and the deep dysfunction it has exposed will forever alter domestic order in the U.S. But lost in the flood of daily domestic tragedies is a shift that may prove as consequential as the pandemic itself: the death of the international political order commonly known as “globalization.”

    Across the world, the pandemic has broken supply chains and strained old trade partnerships. The great economic alliance at the center of globalization ― the relationship between the United States ― the world’s great consumer powerhouse ― and China ― the world’s great manufacturing center ― is crumbling. It is far too early to foresee exactly how these two superpowers will reach new terms of coexistence, but whatever the ultimate result, the rest of the world is already preparing for a new order.

    The political struggle to shape what comes next has already begun on Capitol Hill. A quiet battle currently being waged among Republicans reveals much of what is broken in the current international economic system, and helps illuminate what might replace it.

    Last month, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced the Slave-Free Business Certification Act, a short bill that would require American corporations to investigate their supply chains for slave labor, publicly report their findings, detail any corrective measures being taken, and make the CEO of the company personally certify all of it. Nearly every item Americans purchase, after all, is the product of international inputs ― chemicals and raw materials from one part of the world, factories and works in another, and shipping routes that criss-cross oceans and borders before arriving on the shelves of American retailers.

    Much of this complexity results from a simple quest for cheap labor. Lower wages for workers bring higher profits for shareholders. And while it would be unconscionable for American executives to use forced labor within American borders, most workers in their supply chains are not official employees of the companies whose brands are emblazoned on the things we buy. They’re subcontractors, international joint ventures, subcontractors of international joint venture partners, and on and on. By forcing companies to examine the labor practices of their business partners, the bill would shine a light on the degree to which modern slavery is endemic to the modern global economy.

    Hawley’s legislation is what’s known around Washington as a”………

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-right-begins-a-reckoning-with-globalization_n_5f2da2a4c5b6b9cff7f19373

    1. “If taxation were voluntary we would get a government fit for purpose…”

       “…One which accepted that not everyone needs a government to run their lives and so took a live and let live approach as long as everyone understood that the only ‘rule of law’ that mattered was ‘do no harm’.

       There are many ways to skin a cat but pretending that a plutocratic authoritarian state created and supported by compulsory taxation of the individual’s income and most of the requirements for ‘contemporary life’ under pain of a financial penalty or loss of liberty, is a democracy is delusional.
       Such an authoritarian entity cannot tolerate anyone who seeks to remain in the land it claims jurisdiction over and live a life outside of the tax dragnet.
       Whether an anarchic land’s people could tolerate an authoritarian government operating in the same place is open to question as, as far as I am aware, there are currently no real world models to examine.

       It’s not a case of I’m right you are wrong or trying to convince you to change what you think and feel it’s more a case of trying to throw off the blinkers imposed by corporate consumerism and its media to get people to see that flexibility is a better way to go not rigidly sticking with, defending and tweaking the current model which based on available evidence benefits a tiny minority and keeps the vast majority in a life of perpetual struggle.” ~ Bill, comment on Permaculture Research Institute of Australia’s blog, January 24th, 2014

       “The process of enclosure has sometimes been accompanied by force, resistance, and bloodshed, and remains among the most controversial areas of agricultural and economic history in England. Marxist and neo-Marxist historians argue that rich landowners used their control of state processes to appropriate public land for their private benefit. This created a landless working class that provided the labour required in the new industries developing in the north of England…” ~ Wikipedia

       “Anarchism [anarchy] is participatory… it’s based on the assumption that any authoritarian or any structure of authority and domination has to justify itself– none of them are self-justifying– whether they’re in individual relations, or international affairs or the workplace or whatever… They have a burden of proof to bear, and if they can’t bear that burden– which they usually can’t– they’re illegitimate and should be dismantled and replaced by alternative structures which are free and participatory and are not based on authoritarian systems…
       Go back 150 years… beginnings of the industrial revolution… At that time, the mills were being formed around Boston. They were bringing in working people, what were called factory-girls– young women from farms. Irish workmen from Downtown Boston… had a very free and lively press at the time, which they, themselves, ran. This was before the period of commercial press-domination and the general press was much more diverse, and much more free and much more lively than it’s ever been since. Quite the peak period of freedom-of-the-press in the US and also in England. And the press is quite interesting. It was written by the participants- their assumptions are what are relevant here- they just took for granted that wage labour was virtually the same as slavery. They had no influence from European radicalism– never heard of Marx, nothing of this– it’s just the ordinary assumptions of people who think reasonably about the world. Wage labour is illegitimate, it’s like slavery. This is right around the time of the civil war. Northern workers in the American Civil War fought under that banner; that wage slavery is like chattel slavery. In fact it was even the position of the Republican Party. It was a fairly mainstream position. You’ve even got editorials in the NY Times about it, believe it or not. And they also took for granted that the industrial system is totally illegitimate. It’s just a form of feudalism to which people are driven by essentially violence or starvation, and has to be overcome. Those who work in the mills should own them is taken for granted. The feudalistic industrial system was destroying their culture… These are understandings about the nature of freedom and domination that have been lost. So it’s not pure progress. How far they’ve been lost is an interesting question. My suspicion is that they’re right below the surface. And when the issues arise– right now– working people in the counterpart of the mills will recognize the relevance and accuracy of these, basically anarchist, positions…” ~ Noam Chomsky

13. In case you were wondering.

    DROPPED EMISSIONS DURING COVID-19 LOCKDOWN WILL DO ‘NOTHING’ FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

    According to an international study led by the University of Leeds, unless large-scale, structural interventions — like a significant switch away from fossil fuels — are implemented, these changes will not affect Earth’s climate. In fact, the researchers found, even if lockdown measures continue in some fashion around the world until the end of 2021, more than a year and half total, global temperatures will only be roughly 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit (0.01 degrees Celsius) lower than expected by 2030.

    IOW Lockdown showed that we can change and change fast, but it also showed the limits of behavior change. Without underlying structural change, we won’t make it [keeping temperatures to “safe” levels].

    https://www.space.com/coronavirus-emissions-drop-wont-help-climate-change.html

    1. You worry too much. This article just came out showing we have everything to decarbonize by 2035 and eventually reach the zero emissions by 2050 which is required to cancel climate change.

       https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify

       “How to drive fossil fuels out of the US economy, quickly”
       The US has everything it needs to decarbonize by 2035.

       1. Geeta,

          Is that you at Twitter? If so…

          “It is useless and… futile for us to continue talking peace and non-violence against a government whose reply is only savage attacks on an unarmed and defenseless people…” ~ Nelson Mandela

          Don’t deny your feelings of, call it ‘hate’ if you wish, and/or ‘anger’. It’s part of what makes you human, and maybe other animals share it too. In a sense it’s love, via your feelings for seeing something you care about being destroyed and whatnot.
          You can hate a system, a dystopia, and maybe have a sense of anger toward those that mindlessly uphold it, despite what they see right under their noses. Some of them might be expressing/acting out a kind of hate toward real community, people being happy and free, and toward nature and with a desire to control and imprison in myriad ways and stuff like that.

          But don’t let hate or fury overcontrol you and take everything/one down, but express it, nevertheless. Be true to it and so true to yourself. Tap its energies for good or at worse, neutral. Be courageous. Risk messing up the makeup, hair, clothes and pose. Risk alienation if your feel the stakes are high enough.

          Bill Mollison of Permaculture fame once said (It’s in a You Tube video) that “It is fury that drives me.” When I quoted him on one permaculture site, a ‘Permie’ or more didn’t appear to like it. They may have even deleted the link. They seemed to think or want perpetual happy faces on everything and everyone and to suppress/deny most so-called negative energies/expressions. Like those so-called ‘snowflakes’ and the ideas of their ‘comfort zones’. I think Mollison was talking at the time about how some people put up enclosures that badly disrupted animals’ migration patterns and possibly killed many of them in the process. That should anger anyone who has a heart. It’s in part about control. Control control control.

          Oh and, lastly, intact nature is a ‘luxury’ we cannot afford to lose in the name/pursuit of so-called luxury.

          Nice outfits by the way. I knit and like my ‘luxury’ too, but don’t like paying too much for it, including with my self-empowerment, and to some companies, like the ones that might run sweatshops for example.

          Doug seems to be doing fine.

14. Coal is doomed, you say?

    INDIA PLANS TO FELL ANCIENT FOREST TO CREATE 40 NEW COALFIELDS

    “Under a new “self-reliant India” plan by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, to boost the economy post-Covid-19 and reduce costly imports, 40 new coalfields in some of India’s most ecologically sensitive forests are to be opened up for commercial mining. Among them are four huge blocks of Hasdeo Arand’s 420,000 acres of forest in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, which sit above an estimated 5bn tonnes of coal. This marks a significant shift. The coal industry in India is state-owned, but this auction of 40 new coal blocks will see the creation of a privatised, commercial coal sector in India. Among those bidding for it are India’s rich and powerful industrial giants, including the $14bn Adani group run by the Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, who operates India’s largest coal power plants and has close ties to Modi.”

    India’s joint secretary for coal, Maddirala Nagaraju, said that all the country’s projections showed that demand for coal would increase and insisted that increased domestic coal mining was the “cheapest way of meeting the energy needs of the people. We are the country with the fourth largest coal reserves in the world and we need to provide energy security for over a billion people: coal is the only way.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/08/india-prime-minister-narendra-modi-plans-to-fell-ancient-forest-to-create-40-new-coal-fields

    1. Production tells us very little about consumption. For example, Chinese coal capacity factors have fallen sharply due to overbuilding of coal generation. So, miners and utilities can build all the coal infrastructure they want, on the assumption that “if you build it, they will come”, but in reality, not so much. And, it’s consumption that controls emissions.

       Now, in India these coal mines are explicitly unrelated to consumption levels: they’re intended to reduce imports.

       1. And, the new coal mines will destroy a rich and bio-diverse ancient forest plus disrupt an indigenous population, which happens to be the key point of the article, but I guess that’s of no significance to you?

          1. Doug,

             Your point was about the expansion of coal mining, based on the first sentence of your comment( “Coal is doomed, you say?”).

             So, why the aggressive attitude? It has seemed that you liked to get angry at anybody who discussed solutions like renewables and EVs, but maybe you just need to vent in general?

15. Wind Offshore
    from the IEA-
    Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook special report
    https://www.iea.org/reports/offshore-wind-outlook-2019

    “In 2018, offshore wind provided a tiny fraction of global electricity supply, but it is set to expand strongly in the coming decades into a USD 1 trillion business. …The global offshore wind market grew nearly 30% per year between 2010 and 2018, Yet today’s offshore wind market doesn’t even come close to tapping the full potential – with high-quality resources available in most major markets, offshore wind has the potential to generate more than 420 000 TWh per year worldwide.
    This is more than 18 times global electricity demand today.”

    Got copper?

    1. “Got copper?” LOL

       “Material requirements of a modern wind turbine have been reviewed by the United States Geological Survey. On average 1 MW of wind capacity requires 103 tonnes of stainless steel, 402 tonnes of concrete, 6.8 tonnes of fiberglass, 3 tonnes of copper and 20 tonnes of cast iron.” BTW, manufacturing roughly 3900 lbs of concrete is responsible for emitting 400 lbs of CO2, or so they say. 😉

       1. Wonder how 1 MW of nucs’ coal, solar, stacks up?

          The quietest, cleanest and least damaging MW is the one not used.

          1. Backpacking, I’ve noticed things are lightest that are not in the pack—–
             Who would of thought?

       2. 103 tonnes of stainless steel …3 tonnes of copper

          I’m curious – what’s your source?

          An NREL report from 2015 shows declining material inputs. Copper is much lower, at about .5 tons per MW of wind capacity.

          See figure 26, page 61 of https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/66861.pdf

          1. I gave the source: U.S.G.S.

             Also: “The copper content per installed wind turbine is 2.5–6.4 tonnes per megawatt, as follows: Generator: 0.7–4.0 tonnes of copper. Cabling: 0.7–1.0 tonnes of copper. Transformers: 0.7–1.4 tonnes of copper.”

             https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5036/sir2011-5036.pdf

             rlz=1C1GCEA_enCA871CA871&biw=854&bih=366&ei=SKExX8LnDNbOtQb3mpjYDQ&q=how much copper per MW build a wind turbine&oq=how much copper per MW build a wind turbine&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoECAAQR1Dw9QJYnbIDYIq_A2gAcAF4AIABoAeIAclEkgEENi0xMJgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXrAAQE&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjCq-DZsJHrAhVWZ80KHXcNBtsQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

             1. Well, the organization is better than nothing as a reference, but really the document (and page/figure) is the important thing.

                And, it’s helpful to give more information so that your audience can make sense of what you’ve said. It’s good to give context, as the abstract for this USGS report does:

                “The results of the study suggest that achieving the market goal of 20 percent by 2030 would require…less than 3 percent of the U.S. apparent consumption for 2008…The data suggest that…there should not be a shortage of the principal materials required for electricity generation from wind energy.“

             2. Doug,

                Things have changed since 2011 quite a bit in the wind industry.

                1. Except for the concrete and steel in the towers, all the metal can easily be recycled, and I’m pretty sure the tower foundations will last one HELL of a long time. The towers themselves will probably last fifty to a hundred years, by downsizing the turbines somewhat if necessary, as they towers get older. The turbines will have to be periodically replaced or refurbished in any case.

                   I don’t really know much about the way they are constructed, but I think the engineers designing them are taking into account the possibility of refurbishing and upgrading them rather than replacing them entirely.

                   Consider an automotive example. The newer and better four speed (with overdrive) transmission that replaced the older three speed transmission bolted right into the same space, with no changes necessary to the engine or chassis or body work of the car.

                   Industrial electric motors are built with standardized exterior dimensions and attachment points. So a new more efficient model can be bolted right in the place formerly occupied by an old less efficient one…… and in some cases, the older motor can be remanufactured to good as new to be more efficient while saving the entire case or frame.

                   Bottom line , a wind farm, once built, will last more or less indefinitely with periodic maintenance. Forty or fifty years from now, a wind farm commissioned today will probably be producing a third MORE juice than it does today, due to upgrading.

                   I’m willing to entertain a bet on the proposition that more resources in the form of metals and concrete, etc, are used up mining and hauling coal to power plants by a factor of five , on a kilowatt hour basis, over the years, compared to a wind farm.

16. This infographic shows increasing Fossil consumption in 2040. Peak what you say? What % of the population is Energy Blind?
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-projected-energy-mix-2018-2040/

    1. “What % of the population is Energy Blind?”

       Energy Blind, an interesting phrase; probably needs to come with a definition. Major oil pipeline under construction here in Western Canada (500,000 bbl per day from Alberta oil-sands directed to Asian markets). BTW Virtually everyone here drives a F250, F350 or F450 equivalent, plus a SUV, and I expect anyone mentioning EVs would be classified as Energy Blind so, I guess it depends on your audience? Never seen an EV here, or heard anyone mention them.

17. For the (overflowing) worse-than-expected file.

    NEW STUDY WARNS: WE HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE PACE AT WHICH THE ARCTIC IS MELTING

    Arctic sea ice is melting more quickly than once assumed. Today’s climate models have yet to incorporate the steep rise in temperatures that have occurred over the past 40 years. This, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Copenhagen and other institutions. Over the past 40 years, temperatures have risen by one degree every decade, and even more so over the Barents Sea and around Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, where they have increased by 1.5 degrees per decade throughout the period…

    “We have looked at the climate models analyzed and assessed by the UN Climate Panel. Only those models based on the worst-case scenario, with the highest carbon dioxide emissions, come close to what our temperature measurements show over the past 40 years, from 1979 to today,” says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-08-underestimated-pace-arctic.html

    1. Meanwhile,

       WARMING WORLD WILL BE ‘DEVASTATING’ FOR FROZEN PEATLANDS

       “Right now, huge amounts of carbon are stored in boggy, often frozen regions stretching across northern parts of the world. But much of the permanently frozen land will thaw this century, say experts. This will release warming gases at a rate that could be 30-50% greater than previous estimates.”

       https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53726487

18. Almost sounds like Protestants and Catholics. Does this mean, I can’t stand DT (or whoever) but will have to vote for him/her because I’m a Republican/Democrat? I have worked with a few highly educated Yanks and this seemed to be their thought process.

    STUDY FINDS AMERICANS PRIZE PARTY LOYALTY OVER DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES

    “It is conventional wisdom that Americans cherish democracy — but a new study by Yale political scientists reports that only a small fraction of U.S. voters are willing to sacrifice their partisan and policy interests to defend democratic principles.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-08-americans-prize-party-loyalty-democratic.html

    1. Democrats and Republicans may as well be living on different planets, these days. I live in an area where we do our damndest to keep the democrat planet from coming in and ruining our living standards.

       1. “The oppressed are allowed once every few years to decide which particular representatives of the oppressing class are to represent and repress them.” ~ Karl Marx

       2. So, everyone’s nuts?

          1. No, just everyone in Danny’s neighborhood.

             1. Hey guys, bring your nails, some soap and warm water and help Ron and me peel this Trump label off this box and stick a Biden one on it, will ya?

       3. Danny. Thats a pretty sad way to live, in fear.
          I live in an area were it feels like the culture is vibrant, diverse, and has aspirations for innovation and improvement.

19. Nikola Motors just today got a huge contract –
    “Nikola may not have built a single customer [electric] Badger pickup yet, but that hasn’t stopped the Tesla rival from inking a deal to provide electric garbage trucks. The deal will see Nikola build at least 2,500 electrified trucks that Republic Services plans to use for a quieter, greener trash collection…Road testing of the new refuse trucks is expected to begin in early 2022. If all goes to plan, full production deliveries to Republic should start in 2023. The contract also covers a potential expansion of orders to as many as 5,000 trucks.”

    They’ve got big hydrogen plans as well.
    https://nikolamotor.com/hydrogen
    https://nikolamotor.com/press_releases/nikola-orders-enough-electrolysis-equipment-from-nel-to-produce-40000-kgs-of-hydrogen-per-day-79

20. On wind, and transmission.
    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/10/vestas-first-to-service-100-gw-of-wind-turbines-is-concerned-over-transmission-line-permitting/

21. BYD Electric Buses: 13 Million Zero-Emissions Miles In USA

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/10/byd-electric-buses-13-million-zero-emissions-miles-in-usa/

22. Intensely warm (compared to normal) northern seas- Labrador, Hudson Bay, Kara, Barents, East Siberian

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

    

    1. What I am interesting in is the cold blob southeast of Greenland, which helps in provoking heat waves in Europe. And, by the way, the hot anomaly east of USA is due to the weakaning of AMOC circulation which is also responsible for the apparition of a cold anomaly southeast of Greenland. A lot of energy, especially renowable elctricity are going to be necessary to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to remove these specialties : to remove 450 millions tons of carbon dioxide (the emissions of France), 93 terawatt hours would be necessary (total production for France, 550 terawatt hours) with climework technologies.

       1. Make Nature Great Again

          “A lot of energy, especially renowable elctricity are going to be necessary to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to remove these specialties…” ~ Jean-François Fleury

          Jean-François, rather, we need to be talking far more about planting, nurturing and encouraging lots of added native flora as the actual renewables that are going to suck up the carbon dioxide. Addressing problems of technology with more technology seems very counterproductive in many, if not most regards.

          More plants also help soils, local climates, water retention and other fellow creatures, all of which can lead to better biodiversity and food, soil and water security. Win win win. This kind of thing will also go a long way toward helping deal with potential disruptions in our technoindustrial food supplies, as well as offer us added skills and self-empowerment such as if more of us started caring more for nature and less for corporate technology.

          1. Yes, I agree with you but it is not going to be enough. There are something like 1,4 billions hectares of arable lands. By supposing that these arable lands are converted in conservation agriculture and that we increase by 2 points the content (the stock) of organic matter in the first 30 cm of soil (3000 t/ha) in 10 years, we get an increase of 3,6 t of carbon content in the soil (carbon represents roughly 60% of the weight of organic matter) per year. This represents an uptake of 13 t/ha or so of carbon dioxide per year or applied on the 1,4 billions hectares of arable lands, 18,2 billions t of carbon dioxide per year. The global emissions are estimated at 40 billions t of carbon dioxide/year : the carbon dioxide uptake of conservation agriculture is not going to be enough. My rough estimation is optimistic as most of arable lands are in tropical and equatorial areas where organic matter content increase is prevented by a continuous and stronger biological activity than in temperate areas. Of course, it would help and is necessary to perpetuate agricultural productions.

23. Oh Dear, not good. However, as an engineer (undergraduate studies), if I were in charge, I would certainly assume the worst-case scenario to prepare for climate change, rather than the rose-tinted-glasses approach of calling RCP8.5 “alarmist”. Risk Management might be a better way to think of it.

    ‘WORST-CASE’ GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO STILL BEST GUIDE UNTIL 2050

    UN panel’s RCP8.5 scenario of sharply rising emissions matches trends since 2005, PNAS study says, rejecting criticisms it’s “alarmist”.

    “RCP8.5 is very, very relevant,” lead author Christopher Schwalm of the Woods Hole Research Center, Massachusetts, told Climate Home News. “If it didn’t exist, we’d have to create it.” He said the study could be a wake-up call for greater action to curb climate change.

    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/08/03/worst-case-global-warming-scenario-still-best-guide-2050-study-says/

    1. i heard once that people who look at the world through rose-colored glasses find that all those red flags just look like regular flags.

24. This is one way to look at wind and solar power. You own a company that needs a 10 ton dump truck but you have to buy a 20 ton truck. Several times a year you need to move more than 10 tons, but, and a big but there are times that The first truck isn’t available so you get the other 20 ton truck you have to have to get the job done.
    All of this expense due to the mortal fear of the life giving carbon molecules.

    At 10:00 am on the PJM system the load is 117,515 MW. The contribution from wind , 242 MW or 2% of the installed capacity and for the peak summer loading months this is the norm. Not to worry, the system is being supplied by 51,137 MW from gas and 28,486 from coal. http://www.pjm.com
    At 11:00 am. The load increased by 6000 MW and wind supplied 25 MW less. How great is that?
    At 1:00pm Load 136,105 MW wind is down to 151 MW

    1. Ervin. Another way to look at wind and solar is- ‘what you going do when oil and coal are depleting?’
       The more cheap wind and solar you deploy now, the longer you can sustain the depleting oil supply and keep the economy from crashing. We’ve got a huge task in front of us. Better get up of our lazy ass and get to it.

       1. Hickory,
          You missed my point, wind and solar AREN’T cheep. Billions are spent for MW,s that are never used. Today 98% of the installed capacity not being used but the borrowed money has to be paid. The rarely used coal and gas plants have to be staffed with qualified people and the equipment has to be in good working order. Both cost money that the rate payers foot the bill. Explain why Germany has the highest cost of electricity in Europe and the most wind and solar.

          1. Wind and solar aren’t cheap in Germany because it’s somewhat in the North of Europe and doesn’t have the best wind and sun resources, but they are affordable.

             So, why does Germany like wind and sun?? Because it’s a domestic, clean resource. They could import cheap wind and sun from Spain, say, but they’d like to have energy independence.

             They’re tired of being dependent on Russia. Can you blame them??

             1. So Domestic, So Clean

                “So, why does Germany like wind and sun?? Because it’s a domestic, clean resource.” ~ Nick g

                As if ‘Germany’ is a person and ‘wind’ and ‘sun’ are so homey, clean and natural, like what some children might think of when we say home, wind and sun…

                “Hi my name is Germany, here at the beach after a nice swim. Ahh, life is good. Go fetch me a coconut-lime daiquiri, please, get one for yourself and come sit with me in the sun and gentle breezes. That’s all we need…”

          2. Copy Edit

             Ervin, to many it doesn’t matter. Like often depicted in their movies and television shows, they are going to sit you in a chair in a darkened room with their thugs, tie you up, snap your head back and waterboard force-feed you if they– not you– want to. This is the kind of world many are forced to live in; a musical chairs economy with a gun.

             Ever played the game? What happens at the end of it?

             “Play the game, you little fuckers! [enter gentle/polite equivalence of choice here]” ~ Dystopia- [enter flattering term here, like ‘Dream-‘ or ‘Divine-‘] Denizen

          3. Ervin.
             Its relative. New utility scale solar and wind are, relative to the other other options, a very good price.
             Here is the data if you choose to learn about it-
             https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2019
             Take a look at the first chart.

             1. Well, that link was interesting!!

                Thanks

                1. I agree Gerry.
                   They update the research annually.
                   Utilities rely on this kind of data to make the big decisions.

          4. ” Explain why Germany has the highest cost of electricity in Europe and the most wind and solar.”

             Look Evin, you obviously do not understand that Germany and Denmark had the highest prices before there were wind power and PV, it is a feature, not a bug.

             Hint: It lowers import of fossil energy and led to energy efficient processes. The higher prices now are a legacy of the 2009-2011 PV boom, they will be gone in a few years.

             PV and Wind is cheaper than new coal power plants or nuclaer power plants, therefore, capacity is added.

       2. The crony-capitalist corporate-industrial dystopia that has laid waste to our planet are what some people, despite that, despite everything, keep chanting about on an implicit, even subconscious or religious level (of fervor) such as when referring to solar panel and windmill buildout.

          What are we going to do when oil and coal are depleting? Who’s we?
          Speak for yourself and use your own money and resources, resources which are actually everyone’s and that are generally stolen, stolen even from the rest of the life on this planet, even from the future for generations to come, as if greed and corruption knows no bounds of time and space.

          But, well, yeast would probably go for the next level of energy, so in (morally bankrupt) human terms or equivalence, I guess that would be their crony-capitalist corporate-industrial dystopia’s equivalent of the so benign-sounding solar and wind– brought to you by the fossil fuel industry no less. You can almost feel it caressing your face when you think about it, rather than in the industrial dystopic sense that, like factory farms, ‘smashes it forever under the heel of a dystopia-thug’s jackboot’– or knee, as the case may be.

          We can’t breathe.

          There’s your ostensible implicit religiosity ethics right there, Hickory.

          But are humans smarter than yeast? Maybe some of them, but the other ones have the guns and self-appointed authority, upheld by the sheeple– worse than the authorities themselves because it makes their job easier, practically what it is…

          All of history’s despots probably wouldn’t have gotten anywhere without their sheeples’ complicity and compliance.

          Sheeple; snitches; rats.

          Ya, BLM, but anarchists already knew that BLM. So who are they trying to educate?

          Just a shot across your bow: You live like that and advocate it, it will bring you and your ignorance down too in the forms of protests, resistances, riots, rebellions, rapes and wars, etc.. Because they are the seeds you sow.

          We see it every day and it will get worse unless or until it gets better.

       3. Ervin,

          The actual day in and day out production of a modern wind farm, one built within the last few years, is typically above thirty percent of theoretical capacity and sometimes above forty percent.

          At thirty three percent, that’s like having your twenty ton truck on the road, working at it’s limit, eight hours a day, seven days a week, year in, year out.

          Given that fossil fuels DEPLETE, there’s a substantial likelihood in my estimation that a wind farm will pay for itself, given time, on the basis of purchased fuel costs alone.

          You don’t only pay directly for gas, oil and coal. You pay in air pollution, water pollution, bad public health outcomes, larger military budgets and on all too many occasions, in blood. Lots of wars have been fought as much over coal, oil, and gas as for any other reason, and there’s no doubt more such wars will be fought in the future.

25. My favorite, Kamala Harris was selected as Biden’s running mate. I am a happy man tonight. We will bury the Trumpites in November.

    1. Very good choice, I agree. So worried he was going to pick Susan Rice, echoing H Clinton’s lame VP choice. Good scenario for Biden, keep him at home and sticking to the script, let the bully self-destruct.

       1. I’m happy with Senator Harris, but I’m wondering if Biden shouldn’t have gone with a candidate from a swing state, which would have damned near guaranteed carrying that state.

          I forget her name, right off the bat, but there’s a woman in Florida who seems to be fully xualifed in all respects. We didn’t hear much about her.

          Trump HAS to have Florida. No way in hell he wins without Florida.

    2. Yes Ron, she is strong, and its a great story- daughter of immigrants (very smart immigrants) achieving high leadership position.
       ofm- you were referring to Val Demmings. Yes, she is very impressive also.

26. Has anybody here heard much about what’s going on in the hydrogen storage tank area?

    The biggest single problem with using natural gas as a motor fuel isn’t distribution, because there IS a natural gas grid already in place that’s big enough to allow for truck and car fueling stations along main highways in many parts of the USA and the rest of the modern world as well.

    The killer issue is getting enough natural gas or hydrogen into a small enough and affordable tank to make it practical to use these fuels to run internal combustion engines in trucks and cars.

    1. https://www.intechopen.com/books/carbon-nanotubes-recent-progress/reversible-and-reproducible-hydrogen-storage-in-single-walled-carbon-nanotubes-functionalized-with-b

       Someday. Perhaps. About ten years ago a Scientist at NREL, Ann Dillion did some groundbreaking work on this. She has since passed and problems have cropped up, I guess the hydrogen reacts with the carbon over time leading to a search for ways to prevent that and increase the efficiency. It is an elegant solution though because a block of carbon would be safe in a vehicle. This stuff is cheap. Despite the exotic name it is basically soot. So, I guess the work goes on but I haven’t really been keeping up with it. Just not that excited about hydrogen but you never know.

    2. There was a flurry of news a few years ago about a US Navy project to convert CO2 and seawater into a liquid fuel. If it could be all done through solar/wind, i wonder what it would take to make it cost effective?

       It seems to me that liquid fuels have a significant advantage in usability??

       Fuel from Seawater? What’s the Catch? (from 2014)
       https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/fuel-seawater-whats-catch-180953623/

       Low-cost catalyst helps turn seawater into fuel at scale (from last month)
       https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200715123120.htm

       …. and then there’s this..
       Stanford researchers create hydrogen fuel from seawater
       https://news.stanford.edu/2019/03/18/new-way-generate-hydrogen-fuel-seawater/

    3. I can’t address the storage issue directly, but Nikola Motors doesn’t seem daunted by the issue.
       They are on the verge (?2 years) of rolling out their hybrid hydrogen-electric cargo trucks. These have a fuel cell to utilize the hydrogen.

       https://www.freightwaves.com/news/hydrogen-fuel-the-other-side-of-nikolas-electric-truck-business
       ““Hydrogen is a key to everything with Nikola,” says Executive Chairman Trevor Milton. “It’s our ability to separate ourselves from our competitors. “Nikola is not just a truck company. We’re really an energy technology company.
       “We’ve spent more time on reducing the cost of hydrogen than we’ve spent on anything else, including building the trucks.”

       1. Except for building the drive train, trucks are a mature technology. I can’t see anybody doing very much that’s new in any real sense of the word, other than the power plant.

          The thing about a BIG truck is that there’s ample space to mount fairly large fuel tanks and still have plenty of cargo room left, especially if the truck is going to be used to haul fairly dense or heavy materials. You can hit the weight limits with six inches of structural steel covering the cargo box floor, but be only one third of the way there loaded with potato chips stacked to the legal limit on height.

          Such tanks could also be made to be interchangeable on a fairly fast basis, so that spares could be on hand, ready to swap, at truck stops.

          Swapping batteries won’t work for cars, it’s too slow, and the owner wants his OWN battery, not one that might be be worn about out. The batteries COULD be standardized, but they aren’t and aren’t likely to be anytime soon, maybe never. Tanks could be easily standardized so they could work on different makes and models and be fast and easy to swap out. We do that already with forklifts and other industrial machinery that run on propane.

          Tank durability would be a different matter, compared to batteries. Tanks can be expected to last indefinitely, or ownership could be retained either by the truck manufacturer or by the truck stop or hydrogen company.

          1. “Swapping batteries won’t work for cars, it’s too slow”
             There is a trend for LFP Blade Batteries. It’s called cell to Pak. Once Batteries are not so precious they could be leased. No loan slavery. Swap out in less than 30 secs. Could be done without pulling over. Think Transport as a service. it’s happening. Limited future in Combustion…. is messy.

             1. “Limited future in Combustion…. is messy.” ~ Longtimber

                It can be, but I have it pretty clean…

                Just this summer for the first time ever, I surprisingly successfully managed to distill my own vodka (from a ‘sugar wash’ as this type is called). Apparently, ICE engines can run on the stuff, though unsure how well or where the oil for the innards would come from. Deer fat? We have a lot of deer here. But then we’re talking much more messy.

                For the fermentation process, at least for my approach, it takes about a month and a few days, maybe a bit longer if I want to patiently wait for just about all the yeast to do their thing. I suppose, however, that some of the yeast left go into a dormant state (they survive the fridge fine for subsequent batches).

                Because of lockdown, the copper pipe store I had in mind was closed, so I have been distilling the batches using a simple pot distillation method, which works, again, surprisingly well. From a little under 4 liters or so of ‘wash’, I get close to 750 milliliters of 40% alcohol (which is standard in the stores here). Because it is a wash, rather than a mash or fruit mash, apparently I get much less methanol and mostly ethanol, which is what you want for ‘smoothness’.

                So there you go: A guy on a peak oil/energy/collapse site who now produces his own (drinkable) energy. 😀

                Lip-smackin’ good I tells ya. Lip-smackin’ good. 😀

                (Enjoying a home-made hard grape cider as we speak. I like to call it a sparkling ‘proto-wine’.)

                1. Caelan MacIntyre,

                   Congratulations. Now, if you’re looking to go into Port…

                   —

                   What part of the production process produces methanol? That one damages the optic nerve; that’s why avoiding moonshine is a good idea. It isn’t a joke that you can go blind if there’s too much methanol in it.

                2. Hi and thanks Synapsid and for the note of concern. You make me want to do a quadruple take on it to be extra sure, so that’s what I’ll do.

                   AFAIK, and I like to think I’ve done my homework, it’s methanol that’s the problem, so as a lower boiling point than ethanol, the ‘foreshots’ get tossed or I guess you can keep them for certain external apps like maybe old lamp fuels, surface cleaner/sterilizer or as a general solvent. What do you think?

                   But I’ve heard that ethanol is a ‘slow poison’ anyway and I suppose people who have drank (drunk?) much in their lives can end up with liver, etc., problems later in life. Moderation seems to more often than not go without saying. And fortunately for me, I don’t seem to have an alcoholic personality if there’s such a thing. If I did, fermenting/distilling might be more problematic.

                   Unsure entirely about this one, but, unless the commercial operations apply a process to it to remove the methanol, apparently there’s more methanol in basic fruit wines, which may include your port. I think the concern with moonshine is that the methanol is much more concentrated, so that’s where the cautionary focus needs to be.

                   Although I will still maintain a cautiousness about the issue, here’s something from Wikipedia (not to necessarily be confused with the last or even first word on anything):

                   “Ethanol, the active ingredient in alcoholic beverages, acts as a competitive inhibitor by more effectively binding and saturating the alcohol dehydrogenase enzyme in the liver, thus blocking the binding of methanol.”

                   And from ‘some site’ (although I wouldn’t necessarily take his word for it alone, and there’s some humorous contradiction in it, he does seem to be on the gist of what I have read on the subject)…

                   Thebrains:

                   “OMG methanol is no problem listen to no one who talks about it. You can’t produce deadly amounts of methanol EVER you need to make around 27,000 gallons of wash at once to make enough methanol to harm you THAT’S A FACT!!! Wine has the most methanol because the skins, next is beer, next is booze. Sugar wash makes zero to NO methanol. No matter what you ferment then distill you can not harm your self from methanol it is a lie I am the most knowledge ex shiner here. Dump first shot or so yeah it will have a SMALL amount of methanol but not deadly, you can distill all day and no matter what your product will still have small amount of methanol in it. So unless your distilling 27000 gallons at one time you have nothing to worry about.”

                3. Hi Caelan,

                   Makes sense that methanol would come off first as it’s the smaller molecule. You can’t separate the two alcohols completely by distillation, no, and I guess that’s behind the ad for I think a vodka that says “Triple distilled” and not “Quadruple distilled.”

                   “have drunk” yes, not “have drank”. Anyone who supports the latter is of the spawn of the Devil and will get their come-uppance on The Day.

                   I’ve long suspected that the moonshine stories come from poor production method, maybe not discarding the first yields. The discard rule of thumb is:

                   for a 1 gallon batch discard the first 2/3 of a shot glass;
                   for a 5 gallon batch discard the first 1/3 of a pint jar;
                   for a 10 gallon batch discard the first 3/4 of a pint jar.

                   I’d guess that’s what you’re doing.

                   Which brings to mind Port…

                4. Back in a day or two…

                5. Thanks for that rule of thumb, I’ll make a note of it. Maybe I should convert it to percentages.
                   A little under 4 litres (3.785) is a gallon which is what is being worked with.

                   Since the distilling pot is smallish, small batches– about a 1/3 of that gallon– are distilled at any one time, so I have been throwing out too much, which is fine for now.
                   You may be able to go by taste as well if you’re experienced.
                   You’ll also notice that the quote in my first previous comment appears to suggest ethanol as a kind of antidote to methanol poisoning, which is kind of funny, but there you go.

                   “Here, take this quick!”
                   “What’s this!?”
                   “It’s more booze!”
                   “What!?”

                   By the way, I have about a cup of overfermented grap cider (so basically wine) in the freezer for use soon as an addition to a stew. Beef bourguignon?

                   But add the moonshine to the wine and is that a bit like a port? Maybe not what you would like to try. 😀

27. More energy slavery by gov and megautility.iou.fu Got second job? If you want your meter you can keep it. It’s going to get real interesting once Natural Gas normalizes. 345 kV is pretty lame for Intercontinental transmission. Russia should do this to time shift solar since they have 11 times zones. Can you say Corona Mass Discharge? https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-staff-to-congress-hv-transmission-essential-to-reducing-carbon-deplo/583177/
    Boom. NG takes out another hood. And you can’t have Rooftop PV systems over 70 volts.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-explosion-rips-apart-baltimore-neighborhood

    1. Asymmetric/Guerrilla/Proxy Resource & Energy Warfare

       There seems to be a recent critical buzz about smart meters. I’m on the road, so don’t have the article to reference anymore, but apparently they make electricity cost more for the customer, among other nefariousnesses.

       But isn’t that going to be the case with your symbiotic gov-energy/oil/gas/alt.nrg-corporations’ rollouts of so called renewable energy? Higher costs? V or U-shaped energy cost curves like what I’ve mentioned years ago hereon? Like when the materials deplete and more want to get onboard? Resource wars and/or weird instances/asymmetries related to or in place of them?

       Mysterious explosions? Dubious/Weird mandates and measures?

       Your Baltimore explosion link looks like low income/social/rent-to-income housing, incidentally. The same sort of shit that they can’t do any better with despite themselves. ‘Hey, architects! Volunteer work! Right here!’ It reveals a sad blemished facet of a society’s values…
       You have JHK bitching about that sort of thing and yet, on his bi-weekly blog, no real deep critique of government fundamentally. Just a whole lot of typical superficial treatment about it like what you see on here.

       I should encase some words about that in acrylic and bury it for some future species wondering what the hell went wrong and why humans did things this way and that way.

       Some years ago when I first arrived here, I was looking at renting an apartment block with a giant natural gas tank that looked like a lubeless suppository for giants almost right outside one of the apartment’s windows.

       Nothing like suddenly being blown out of bed or off the toilet.

       We should change our species name from human to clusterfuck.

       How the World Works, with Jack Alpert
       Fundamentals of civilization viability.

28. Back to politics for a minute.
    I copied this from Quora . It’s a little long, but speaking as a former educator, I can say with confidence that it should be REQUIRED reading for any body and everybody with a university degree who sees himself as a liberal or progressive.

    The biggest single problem in explaining to my liberal acquaintances why run of the mill working class people support trump and his sort , in my estimation, is that they grossly over estimate how much such run of the mill working class people actually KNOW about government, economics, law, industry, international relations, environmental problems, etc.

    I’m going to post the whole thing, and then I’m going to copy out the most relevant part and post it below the entire piece.

    xxxx

    Christopher Carlin
    ·
    23h ago
    What was the last thing a Trump supporter said to you?

    I have a friend…let’s call him “Robbie”.

    For purposes of anonymity, that’s not his real name. Although it probably wouldn’t matter anyway…he’s never been on Quora in his life and most assuredly never will be, lol. Because he’s just not the literary type. But nothing wrong with that, certainly. To each their own.

    I like Robbie. He’s a pretty typical guy; loves sports and women, cold beer, fast cars, etc. Robbie’s a sanitation engineer…or in other words, a garbage man. Nothing wrong with that either, of course. It’s perfectly honest and respectable labor; and really hard work, in fact.

    Robbie’s in the union, makes a great hourly wage that totals about $62,000 a year. And he earns every fucking penny of it; no question.

    One of the things I’ve always liked and admired about Robbie is his love of animals. He cares about animals and their welfare greatly…any kind of animal. Fish, fowl, snake, cat, skunk, horse or dog…he loves ’em all. Once, in a car with him, we happened to pass a frozen pond where some mallard ducks were swimming in and congregating around a hole in the ice. And there were a bunch of neighborhood kids at the shore of this frozen lake…and they were throwing stones and snowballs at these ducks, and two of the kids were crawling out onto the ice, in an effort to try to get to the hole and grab or hurt those ducks, I guess. The ducks were clearly frightened; squawking and flapping their wings.

    Robbie put a stop to that shit with the quickness, lemme tell you.

    “Pull over!”, he hissed between clenched teeth. “Pull over NOW!” So I did. He leapt from the car and ran to those kids. At the top of his lungs, he bellowed at them; “Hey!! What’re you guys…some kinda fucking LOSERS??!!! Why would you want to HURT innocent ANIMALS??!! They’re not hurting YOU…so LEAVE THEM THE FUCK ALONE!!”

    And he stood there and waited and watched as the kids rather sheepishly gathered themselves together and left the area. Robbie made sure they were gone before he got back in the car.

    He was really angry. Steaming. As we drove off, he kept muttering under his breath, “Damn kids…punks, every one. Why would anyone want to hurt innocent animals?? Assholes.“

    I thought it was pretty cool, what he did. And I was pretty surprised, because, being a typical American male, Robbie’s never really been much for… sensitivity, lol.

    My point is, however, that he’s a fairly decent guy, all things considered.

    Robbie is also a Trump supporter, btw. He voted for Trump the first time around, and Trump is assured of his vote again come November.

    I remember when Trump was first campaigning. Robbie was pretty excited, telling me I just had to vote for Trump, that he was a swell guy who was going to “make America great again.” And as I said he voted for Trump and plans to do so again.

    But there’s a problem with Robbie in all this.

    And the problem is…although my friend Robbie is not a stupid man, certainly…he’s not the sharpest tool in the shed, either, and never much cared for school or book-learning. I mean…he hasn’t much of an intellectual bent, if you know what I mean. He can text, but it’s real labor for him. He can read enough to survive and get along in the world…but it’s a pretty safe bet that the last and only book Robbie ever read was probably “Treasure Island” in grade school, and only because he had to…if in fact he’s ever read a book completely at all in his life. And he never reads for pleasure, certainly…and most importantly, never reads for information or news about the world. And he only occasionally watches the evening news.

    And to Robbie, Donald Trump and the Republicans are like… his team!

    To the extent that people like Robbie even follow current events at all, politics is like a sporting event to them…literally! They just pick a side and root for it, solely because they liked the little they’ve heard from their quarterback, Donald Trump…all that great stuff about MAGA and how he was gonna go to Washington and “drain the swamp”, lol.

    And that’s all they know, all they care or can be bothered to know…and all they think they need to know, thank you very much.

    So they don’t actually follow politics in the literal sense of the phrase; that takes too much goddamn intellectual effort, for pete’s sake!

    And this explains an awful lot to me. Because I daily read of the things Trump is doing…read the moronic, childish tweets and twits he puts out that now pass for diplomacy, the idiotic misinformation and spin he propagates, his fifth-grade content of speech, etc…and think to myself; ‘How in the name of God can any half-educated or even slightly politically aware person fail to see that this man is a personal disaster and a disaster for the United States as well??!!! How can people not see that our beloved Republic is in the hands of a man who is essentially a crooked used car salesman and flim-flam man with no morals or respect or even understanding for the law or the Constitution??!!! Aside from being the most uneducated, oafish lout ever to occupy the Oval office??!!’

    ‘How can they possibly not understand this??!’

    Well…I think I’ve figured out how.

    And my friend Robbie’s a perfect illustration of just how they manage to do so.

    Because people like Robbie…and probably a fair majority of Trump’s constituency…just don’t know. Because they don’t read the news or, again, don’t actually follow politics.

    They don’t read, see or understand what Trump is doing, and who he really is. Because it’s too hard to follow all that stuff.

    They don’t read the articles detailing and decrying Trump’s abuse of office for personal gain…don’t read about his willingness to sell the American electorate to Russian hacking, so long as he is re-elected.

    They don’t know that Trump has grossly insulted half the heads of state in the world; don’t understand his utter contempt for the law and his trampling of the Constitution. They’re unaware of his wreckless breaking of treaties, alliances and agreements former administrations had worked for decades to bring about. And they don’t understand English well enough to know that what comes out of Trump’s mouth is very often utter garbage and nonsense.

    They haven’t read the testimonials from six or seven top-echelon people, very educated men and women in public office who’ve worked for Donald Trump and have variously and publicly described him as “a moron”…”a man with the intellect of a third grader”…”unfit to be President”…”the man’s a genuine idiot”, etc.

    And unfortunately, they simply seem to lack the wherewithal to determine rationality and intelligence from stupidity and incompetence on their own. They just don’t… get it.

    Nope! All they know is that Trump is “getting things done” and “making America great again.” Yessir. Robbie said that to me just last week, in fact.

    I didn’t even bother to argue.

    So my friend Robbie…and millions of others like him…will vote for Trump again, with little self-knowledge, political intuitiveness or even awareness that in so doing they are actually attempting to re-elect the very stupidest and most grossly incompetent man ever to be President.

    Yes…my friend Robbie and people like him are living proof of the old adage that a little knowledge is a very dangerous thing indeed, folks.
    3.8K viewsView Upvoters

    xxxx

    This is the key part.

    My point is, however, that he’s a fairly decent guy, all things considered.

    Robbie is also a Trump supporter, btw. He voted for Trump the first time around, and Trump is assured of his vote again come November.

    I remember when Trump was first campaigning. Robbie was pretty excited, telling me I just had to vote for Trump, that he was a swell guy who was going to “make America great again.” And as I said he voted for Trump and plans to do so again.

    But there’s a problem with Robbie in all this.

    And the problem is…although my friend Robbie is not a stupid man, certainly…he’s not the sharpest tool in the shed, either, and never much cared for school or book-learning. I mean…he hasn’t much of an intellectual bent, if you know what I mean. He can text, but it’s real labor for him. He can read enough to survive and get along in the world…but it’s a pretty safe bet that the last and only book Robbie ever read was probably “Treasure Island” in grade school, and only because he had to…if in fact he’s ever read a book completely at all in his life. And he never reads for pleasure, certainly…and most importantly, never reads for information or news about the world. And he only occasionally watches the evening news.

    And to Robbie, Donald Trump and the Republicans are like… his team!

    To the extent that people like Robbie even follow current events at all, politics is like a sporting event to them…literally! They just pick a side and root for it, solely because they liked the little they’ve heard from their quarterback, Donald Trump…all that great stuff about MAGA and how he was gonna go to Washington and “drain the swamp”, lol.

    And that’s all they know, all they care or can be bothered to know…and all they think they need to know, thank you very much.

    So they don’t actually follow politics in the literal sense of the phrase; that takes too much goddamn intellectual effort, for pete’s sake!

    And this explains an awful lot to me. Because I daily read of the things Trump is doing…read the moronic, childish tweets and twits he puts out that now pass for diplomacy, the idiotic misinformation and spin he propagates, his fifth-grade content of speech, etc…and think to myself; ‘How in the name of God can any half-educated or even slightly politically aware person fail to see that this man is a personal disaster and a disaster for the United States as well??!!! How can people not see that our beloved Republic is in the hands of a man who is essentially a crooked used car salesman and flim-flam man with no morals or respect or even understanding for the law or the Constitution??!!! Aside from being the most uneducated, oafish lout ever to occupy the Oval office??!!’

    ‘How can they possibly not understand this??!’

    Well…I think I’ve figured out how.

    And my friend Robbie’s a perfect illustration of just how they manage to do so.

    Because people like Robbie…and probably a fair majority of Trump’s constituency…just don’t know. Because they don’t read the news or, again, don’t actually follow politics.

    They don’t read, see or understand what Trump is doing, and who he really is. Because it’s too hard to follow all that stuff.

    They don’t read the articles detailing and decrying Trump’s abuse of office for personal gain…don’t read about his willingness to sell the American electorate to Russian hacking, so long as he is re-elected.

    They don’t know that Trump has grossly insulted half the heads of state in the world; don’t understand his utter contempt for the law and his trampling of the Constitution. They’re unaware of his wreckless breaking of treaties, alliances and agreements former administrations had worked for decades to bring about. And they don’t understand English well enough to know that what comes out of Trump’s mouth is very often utter garbage and nonsense.

    They haven’t read the testimonials from six or seven top-echelon people, very educated men and women in public office who’ve worked for Donald Trump and have variously and publicly described him as “a moron”…”a man with the intellect of a third grader”…”unfit to be President”…”the man’s a genuine idiot”, etc.

    And unfortunately, they simply seem to lack the wherewithal to determine rationality and intelligence from stupidity and incompetence on their own. They just don’t… get it.

    Nope! All they know is that Trump is “getting things done” and “making America great again.” Yessir. Robbie said that to me just last week, in fact.

    I didn’t even bother to argue.

    xxxx

    Robbie and his kind aren’t necessarily racist, or Jesus freaks, or wife beaters.

    They just don’t pay much attention to politics, period, and all they know is whatever sinks in from the endless stream of sound bites.

    BUT they DO know, and DO resent it, when you make fun of them.

    Making fun of them publicly is doing trump’s work for him.

    1. A picture is worth a thousand words. Go help him Mac and explain to him it’s time to change teams.

       Ignorance is Bliss

       

       1. I know a LOT of Robbies.

          They’re mostly pretty good guys except that they’re ignorant. I go to Mayberry a couple of times every week. I haven’t seen a soul there wearing a MAGA hat in the last six months, although some of the flea market vendors have them.

          I can think of only three stars and bars flags flying on a regular basis within twenty miles, to my personal knowledge.

          Sure they like to hunt and fish. Sure they don’t want their daughters dating black guys.

          But the vast majority of them aren’t MEAN. They will never riot. They are generally good at whatever they do, driving a truck or running a machine in a factory or whatever.

          They just don’t KNOW anything about politics. They pay about as much attention to politics as I do to pro sports. I can generally tell you the name of the teams that play in the Super Bowl, the day before or after the game, and which one won, but no more than that.

          They just don’t KNOW any better than to listen to a few sound bites and pick sides.

          Their eyes glaze over when you try to explain things to them.

          BUT there are ways to get thru to them, sometimes.

          The ones that fish will come out in favor of clean water laws, if you approach the subject carefully, without condemning Republicans by name, but rather as nasty businessmen who would rather dump sewage in a stream than pay for processing it.

          The ones that are about ready to die, or have seen relatives die from smoking are ready, if approached properly, to talk about good health care policies rather than the freedom of speech of giant corporations such as Phillip Morris and the company’s right to advertise tobacco to children.

          I talk to one of them, a great friend, about how his six hundred dollar insulin sells for thirty bucks in Canada, but he will never come around because he’s too old to ever change his mind about Jesus and going to Heaven, and literally believes that abortion is murder.

          But I’ve had pretty good results talking to some younger people working minimum wage jobs who are either chronically ill or have chronically ill family members about “socialized” medicine, and getting good care rather than the minimum delivered at the emergency room or county public health clinic, etc.

          You win voters over one at a time, face to face, if they’re Robbie’s, by meeting them halfway without putting them or their family or culture down. You don’t even put the Republicans down. You just talk about how to fix things better, without naming the people creating the problems. They will figure that out for themselves.

          NOBODY EVER wants to be TOLD they’re wrong, or stupid, or whatever. You have to deal with people in a way that allows them to save face.

          We need only win over one out of every ten or fifteen of them to flip a hell of a lot of elections to the Democrats.

          1. “they don’t want their daughters dating black guys”
             “They will never riot”

             Perhaps, then, they are only not rioting because enough of their daughters aren’t dating, openly (not that internet checking off the boxes getting laid stuff), black guys.

             I bet they’d riot. Most folks will, for something.

    2. Like father, like son

       Clearly there should be no worry Robbie will ever read any comments posted @ PeakOilBarrel

       

       1. Agreed in this respect. This is why I feel free to talk about Sky Daddy and evolution, etc, in THIS forum. There aren’t any trump voters here, other than a few trolls once in a while.

          I used to try to get some right wingers to read this site, because some of them do take things like resource depletion very seriously, etc. But I gave up on that because none of them would visit more than once because of the leftish leaning political vibe.

          Now I just try to get anybody who reads my comments to temper their rhetoric because badmouthing the opposition STRENGTHENS rather than weakening the enemy. The enemy is trump and his homies.

          Robbie is not the enemy.

          Keep the hot rhetoric out of it, and talk to him personally about little kids going hungry, and he’s in favor of free school lunches…… so long as you don’t rub his fur the wrong way by talking about those little kids parents being deadbeats who ought to GET A JOB.

          Robbie’s not mean. He’s just EASILY manipulated.

          Remember what Twain said. A lie goes around the world while the truth is still putting on it’s shoes.

          It’s unfortunately true that attacking the truth takes only a sound bite, but explaining the truth takes a while.

    3. Its the cruelty. That’s what gets me. Trump’s pitch is based on cruelty. Cruelty to the other. Kids at the boarder. Wildlife harmed by his jihad against the rules protecting the environment. Intentional cruelty. There is a fraction of the mostly male population that gets off on that. This guy “Robbie” maybe not. Maybe he is willfully blind to it. But it is right there in flashing neon attracting those without empathy. It isn’t a bug, its a feature. It is one of the primary sources of his appeal. It is what makes Don Jr. and his butchery attractive to the same crowd. Senseless cruelty and an utter lack of empathy. He has gathered them together under his fold. Are there some among them who are decent. Perhaps. But they are by their embrace of him enabling evil. Doing evil. And I for one will never forgive them.

       1. Yep.
          Racism is cruelty.
          And the vast majority of us have become complacent, as if it was acceptable.

          When Trump ran his public campaign to falsely discredit Obama as having not been born in the USA, this 5 year ‘birther’ campaign prior to the trump election was overtly racist. And who stood up and called him on it. Very few. Racism was acceptable, barely even noticed. Acceptable by the majority of all major sects of christians, I will add.
          We all enabled him and racism, by not calling it out loud and clear every time.
          Silence in the face of racism is complicity to cruelty.
          No matter who the target group is.

29. LAST DECADE WAS EARTH’S HOTTEST ON RECORD AS CLIMATE CRISIS ACCELERATES

    “Every decade since 1980 has been warmer than the preceding decade, with the period between 2010 and 2019 the hottest yet since worldwide temperature records began in the 19th century. The increase in average global temperature is rapidly gathering pace, with the last decade up to 0.39C warmer than the long-term average, compared with a 0.07C average increase per decade stretching back to 1880.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/12/hottest-decade-climate-crisis-2019

    1. Meanwhile,

       WIND, SOLAR GENERATE 10% OF WORLD ELECTRICITY, DOUBLING SHARE SINCE 2015

       Coal falls to 33% of electricity generation in the first half of 2020, hit by declines in US and EU as Covid-19 cuts world power demand. Overall coal generation fell by its largest half-year decline in decades. For the first time, the world’s coal fleet ran at less than half capacity. Earlier this month, the Global Energy Monitor found the global coal fleet shrank for the first time on record with 2.9 gigawatt retired in the first half of 2020. But China’s share of global coal generation continued to increase to 54% so far this year – up from 44% in 2015. “The fact that, during a global pandemic, coal generation has still only fallen by 8% shows just how far off-track we still are. We have the solution, it’s working, it’s just not happening fast enough.”

       https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/08/13/wind-solar-generate-10-world-electricity-doubling-share-since-2015/

30. Something different; ain’t Nature wonderful?

    DOLPHIN STAMPEDE WOWS WHALE WATCHERS

    “Around 300 dolphins were caught on camera as they traveled at rapid speeds near Dana Point in southern California. Also known as porpoising, the dolphins leap so fast they spend more time in the air than in the water.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-53760503/dolphin-stampede-wows-whale-watchers

    1. My old neighborhood—-

31. Why hydrogen fuel cell [and hybrid hydrogen/EV] vehicles will become common in many regions of the world in the decade of 2030’s-
    Because of the big advantages, simply.
    The advantages are depicted well in this entry level posting from the calif fuel cell partnership
    https://cafcp.org/sites/default/files/W2W-2016.pdf

    Here is one american company in this sector that is on a rapid growth pace. Plug Power
    https://www.plugpower.com/

    The biggest threat to the growth in this industry is a substantial breakthrough in chemical battery technology.

    1. Lots of hydrogen power research going on in Japan

       SOLAR-POWERED HYDROGEN PRODUCTION IN JAPAN

       “Toshiba has finalized construction of a 10 MW hydrogen plant in Fukushima prefecture which draws power from 20 MW of solar generation capacity as well as the grid.”

       https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/03/09/solar-powered-hydrogen-production-in-japan/

       1. Ballard Power is a well established fuel cell company from your area Doug
          https://www.ballard.com/

          1. Yes, Ballard Power has been around since about 1980. I think they changed their name from something else at some point.

    2. Some thoughts:

       Japanese companies like FCVs because there are fewer single family homes in Japan. That’s an understandable POV for Asia and Europe, not so much for the US, Canada and Australia.

       Fuel cell vehicles work best when they are large, and part of fleets. Light passenger vehicles are the hardest to adapt to fuel cells – light FCVs probably will never make sense.

       Fuel cell vehicles are very similar to ICE hybrid-electrics: they both have batteries and electric motors. Fuel cell vehicles are even more electric: the fuel cell is a 100% electric generator.
       In both the power currently comes primarily from fossil fuels, given that 96% of H2 now comes from NG.

       EV charging is faster than filling either fuel cell vehicle or an ICE, as they are mostly charged overnight, and plugging them in takes seconds. Passenger vehicles spend 95% of their time parked.

       FCVs are less “water-intensive” because H2 now comes from NG. That’s a bug, not a feature.

       FC light Vehicles will always be more expensive than EVs: they’re 3x less efficient, and fuel cells are well behind batteries in their declining cost curve.

       One big question: what’s the current cost to buy a Light FCV?

32. WARMING GREENLAND ICE SHEET PASSES POINT OF NO RETURN

    Nearly 40 years of satellite data from Greenland shows that glaciers on the island have shrunk so much that even if global warming were to stop today, the ice sheet would continue shrinking.

    But, there are silver linings: “It’s always a positive thing to learn more about glacier environments, because we can only improve our predictions for how rapidly things will change in the future. And, that can only help us with adaptation and mitigation strategies. The more we know, the better we can prepare.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-08-greenland-ice-sheet.html

33. Re your Robbie: I once transitioned from a good job in quite technical civil engineering to a role as an assistant boilerman’s tea maker’s mate (to give it its true description). Prior I was engaged in several direct political activities, on various community committees etc. But after a couple of months of this honest toil and the pleasure of dealing with my workmates’ intellects I found I had become almost incapable of critical thought. It was enough to do the eight hour rotational shifts with an hour’s drive either end and get the meagre pay. After a year I became a vegetable like the Robbies I worked with: capable only of sitting for eight hours staring at the pressure and level gauges and leaping to action when they hit the red lines. Brain dead. Utterly. An ‘ordinary man’ at last.

    I agree that all children should be educated in Civics and Logic – how to participate usefully in a civil society. But at the end of the day the idea of a democracy being composed of a well educated populace capable of making informed decisions based on facts is a dream of the idealist, a myth.

    Churchill may or may not have said:
    “The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with an average voter” but he was right either way.

    Perhaps Trump is actually the ‘Inspired Dictator’ we all deserve and need after all!

    1. “Perhaps Trump is actually the ‘Inspired Dictator’ we all deserve and need after all!”

       Shit the beer went up my nose when i read that.
       No thanks man.
       If we have to have a dictator, I’d prefer that she was benevolent and had half a brain.

    2. Well, you can have a pure autocracy (aka dictatorship), or you can, at worst, have a democracy which forces the would-be autocrats to go through the effort of propagandizing gullible voters.

       At best a democracy involves a substantial informed professional class, and a working class which at least gets to vote on whether to be cannon fodder.

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