EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – August 2020 Edition with data for June and H1, 2020

257 thoughts to “EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – August 2020 Edition with data for June and H1, 2020”

1. Islandboy – thanks for these updates.

   Looks like a scrambled value in the “Data for the First Half of 2020” chart,
   specifically the H1 2019 natural gas says only 0.23%, but H1 2020 is 39.62%,
   which is claimed to be a 7.2% growth.

   1. Thanks. The post has been updated with the corrected chart.

2. Most people have no idea that there’s a lot of coal in Texas, and that Texas has been burning it by the millions of tons to generate electricity. So far as I know very little or maybe none of it is exported or shipped domestically.The power plants, again so far as I know, are located more or less right next door to the mines. I understand that it’s low quality coal.

   When we see coal consumption drop so fast as it has in Texas, there’s reason for believing we really can get away from using coal for electricity, as wind and solar farms get to be cheaper every year in real money.

   I can’t afford subscriptions to specialty publications, and I’m not seeing much at all on what the cost trend is for long distance transmission lines, but since the building of the actual line is a mature technology , I don’t see much hope for any substantial cost reduction in the per mile cost of such lines.

   BUT the super specialized and essential equipment used at each end or node feeding in or out of such a line should be getting cheaper as the market for it expands.

   Thanks anybody and everybody who has a link about long distance transmission costs.

   1. meat to chew on-
      https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/hvdctransmission/pdf/transmission.pdf

      https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/worlds-longest-power-transmission-lines/

      1. Hi Hickory,
         Thanks for the links. I found out a couple of new things, but the one thing I was hoping to find, I did not. That’s whether the price of the specialized equipment needed at each end and take off node is getting any cheaper.

         It looks like there’s near zero competition in this field, with ABB and Siemens apparently having the business all sewed up, probably because these two companies have the head start and patents needed to easily win any bids.

         Plus it looks like every job has to be individually engineered, meaning there’s little or nothing in the way off off the shelf components or cost benefits from standardized equipment.

         1. Electrons flow as needed. so there is no take off node – Power either flow into or out from each transformer secondary. A big advantage of an east-west line will be the PV power flow from brighter nodes to the darker nodes as the sun tracks westerly eliminating need for much storage. The secondary winding faces the distribution or ” local” load or feed circuit.

         2. I read it the same way you do OFM. These HVDC lines are a big project, so you’ve got to deploy them sparingly and strategically. But clearly they are viable for the right setting.

3. The global wind and solar electricity production has doubled in the last 5 years, achieving about 10% in 2020.
   Thats a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
   If the rate continues output would achieve 100% of current total global electricity in 18 yrs.

   Lets consider that the growth rate could be higher since the prices for solar and wind energy production facilities have decreased so much, and the pressure to replace fossil fuels will continue to escalate (peak oil and gas, climate change).
   If the growth rate increased to 18% CAGR, then the 100% electricity replacement would come by 2034.

   There is no reality impediment to this occurring, and in fact is likely a conservative projection.
   Whether or not the USA shifts stance from a laggard to leadership position in these industries is entirely a based on policy choice.
   We have a huge untapped resource, and millions of people/coops could transition from being energy consumers to energy producers.

   1. According to the post, US solar output for June increased 2.54 x in four years. That’s 26% annual growth. If it continued to grow at that rate it would increase 25 x in 14 years, making bigger than the entire electricity industry today.

      I don’t think that will happen, but the question is how long will this blistering growth rate continue?

   2. Thats a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
      If the rate continues output would achieve 100% of current total global electricity in 18 yrs.

      Naw, it is far more likely to increase arithmetically rather than exponentially.

      If the growth rate increased to 18% CAGR, then the 100% electricity replacement would come by 2034.

      Now you are just getting silly. 😉

      The grid will never be 100% electric until they solve the storage problem. They are nowhere close to achieving that goal. All the increase you talk about is in production. There has been virtually no increase whatsoever in storage. So if storage is half the problem, then your rate of increase must be cut in half.

      1. What’s the point of focusing on the U.S. while (effective Jun 5, 2019) fossil fuels remain the world’s dominant energy source, accounting for around 82% of the global energy supply?

         FLOWS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE AND COUNTRY (1969-2018)

         “Over the last 50 years, the world has seen a colossal increase in energy consumption—and with the ongoing transition to renewable energy, it’s interesting to look at how these sources of energy have been evolving over time. While some countries continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas, others have integrated alternative energy sources into their mix. This visualization comes to us from Brian Moore and it charts the evolution of energy consumption in the 64 countries that have data available for all of the last 50 years…

         As the predominant source of energy, fossil fuels collectively accounted for a massive 86.2% of total energy consumption over 2009-2018, or roughly 1.2 million TWh. That’s enough to power the equivalent of 109 billion U.S. homes with electricity for a year. Among fossil fuel sources, oil emerges as the clear leader, responsible for 34.3% or 509,800 TWh of energy consumption over 2009-2018. Apart from being the primary fuel for transportation throughout history, oil remains relatively affordable—making it an easy choice for producers and consumers alike.”

         https://www.visualcapitalist.com/energy-consumption-by-source-and-country-1969-2018/

         1. >What’s the point of focusing on the U.S.

            I don’t know if you read Island Boy’s post, but it is about electricity generation in the US. The calculation I did was based on data he kindly provided.

            We could talk about the Chinese tea market as far as I’m concerned. If you think Island Boy should write about that, talk to him, not me.

            1. alimbiquated —

               Sorry Old Chap, my comment was meant to be directed to Islandboy.

               1. I do like the USA focus, but it would perhaps do well to be framed in the context of global trends, which are perhaps less rosy.
                  I find France and Germany quite interesting too. France with it’s rather unique position in the world vis vis legacy nuclear power, and Germany with regards to wind.

         2. Doug, Your memory must be failing. You asked a similar question a mere two months and ten days ago. My reply is at the following URL:

            http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-june-2020-edition-with-data-for-april/#comment-705613

            In that answer I linked to the data available from the Jamaican government web sites as it relates to energy. The 2019 data has been released and a graph of Petroleum consumption by activity is below.
            The next release will be around the middle of next year.

            

      2. lithium-ion battery—
         First commercialized by the Japanese in the early 1990’s.
         It’s been a while comrades.

         1. Yeah, I know they exist. Lead-acid batteries exist also. So?

            1. I was pointing out it has been quite a while for any new technology that has captured market share.

               1. Just because current li-ion batteries use the same basic chemistry doesn’t mean they’re the same technology that was in use 30 years ago. The Model T used gasoline – how similar is it in cost and capabilities to current ICE vehicles?

                  Materials, costs, form factors….all these have changed dramatically for li-ion over the last several decades.

               2. It improveded dramatically in the early days, but the rate of improvement can only decrease over time. Even more true now that we’re entering a period of economic hardship.

                  

               3. If that’s true, it’s a different topic of conversation: li-ion is, at this point, dramatically different now compared to when it was implemented around 1990 by Sony.

                  Now, is battery change slowing down? If memory serves me, that’s not the case: battery cost reductions, energy density improvements, form factor innovations: these are all continuing, even accelerating. If you have a chance, you might have an interesting time finding articles about that.

                  Finally, where did that chart come from? It doesn’t seem generally useful or accurate to me. In general, in most “goods” sectors of the economy (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, energy) cost reductions and labor productivity improvements continue indefinitely. Look at the example of agriculture labor productivity: the US economy used to be 80% farmers. The number of people on the farm has continually fallen over the last 200 years, and now it’s down to less than 1% on the farm. And…farms continue to get bigger and more efficient at using labor even now. The same is true for mining, manufacturing, energy, etc.Why are there far fewer coal miners now? It’s not primarily due to falling coal consumption, though of course that’s important. It’s mostly due to far fewer miners needed to pull out the same amount of coal from the ground.

               4. The energy required to “pull coal from the ground” doesn’t change.

                  If fewer miners are needed it is only because energy from another source is being used.

                  It seems to me that “more efficient at using labour” is really only saying that something “economics” regards as an externality and that, therefore, doesn’t count as “labour” and is irrelevant as far as “economics” is concerned is doing the work instead of human muscle.

                  Unfortunately for “economics” and more seriously for us, nature has no “externalities”. But, unlike “economics”, nature does have limits and humanity has reached them. Before those limits were reached “economics” produced ever more goods and services but its insistence on “economic growth” has now turned deadly.

                  Paul Isaacs

               5. An emphasis on the importance of energy is very valuable – energy is generally undervalued. But…let’s not go overboard. “Extrasomatic” energy is essential for industrial civilization, but it’s really not the most important factor in general, and it’s not the most important factor for overall cost of most goods.

                  There are lots of ways to reduce both labor and energy inputs. For instance, a transition from underground mining to strip mining can dramatically reduce the labor needed to mine coal. And the energy cost is much less than the labor costs – it’s pretty much a footnote to most corporate financial reports.

                  I absolutely agree that the external costs of fossil fuels are very important, but the funny thing is that if we account for the costs of pollution (by taxing fossil fuels) we’d take care of the problem very quickly: fossil fuels would naturally disappear and be replaced by better, cleaner, cheaper and more abundant renewables.

               6. Energy is freely available in huge quantities. The only limitation has been the ability to harvest and store it. There is no shortage of energy whatsoever. Imagine a hundred acre farm. Between sunrise and noon the entire air column over it heats up rapidly, maybe 10 C in just a few hours. In many cities around the world, the pavement gets so hot on a sunny day you can’t go barefoot. Imagine the amount of heat involved. The amount of energy available is stupendous, and it comes free of charge. All you need to do is harvest it.

                  The rise of fossil fuel consumption coincided with the development of technology to transform the energy of a hot expanding gas into mechanical energy available to do work. That is why steam engines steam turbines, internal combustions engines and turbines are so widespread, and also why we burn so much fossil fuel.

                  This era is now passing, as better materials allow wind turbines that don’t require harnessing the gas that powers them, and solar, which skips the mechanical step completely and converts ambient radiation into electricity using diodes.

               7. alimbiquated and whom it may concern,
                  It’s not just a question of how much energy is available in our environment and what we can harvest from it, but how it’s harvested and what we do or don’t do, and/or who does what and doesn’t do with, with it afterward:

                  Do we continue to maintain the current ‘sociopolitictechnoeconomic’ systems/living arrangements and trash the planet and communities, etc., or do we become more enlightened?

                  It’s questions/issues like these that are what are missing far too often and often why far too many technologies ultimately fail. Therefore, much talk in this regard is relatively impotent.

                  In an enlightened world, there’d likely be few ecosystemic problems with fossil fuel burning and it could also be running far more on alternative energy at this point. The fact that neither is the case tells us something that some of us don’t want to hear and hints and what’s possible or not with any scheme going forward.

               8. This chart has no indication where we are on the curve, so it isn’t worth much.

                  It’s probably wrong anyway, since the cumulative effects of technology mean progress is speeding up. A good example of this is the speed at which countries industrialize. Britain took a century to enter the industrial era. Today industrialization happens much faster.

                  A great example is the spread of telecommunications in Africa in the early 2000s.

                  https://www.zdnet.com/article/africa-has-more-mobile-phone-users-than-the-us-or-eu/

               9. ‘Just How It Is/Will Be’

                  Probably the main reason we are entering ‘economic hardship’ is because we’ve more or less always had it– civilizational declines and collapses of various sorts. And this particular one appears to now be entering its endgame phase.

                  It likely wouldn’t be if it were an enlightened civilization on the whole, but it’s not. It’s not even close to that.

                  You see, what some people call ‘governments’ (I prefer to call them ‘governpimps’ in an attempt to more accurately reflect what they are and for very good reasons relevant to social decline/collapse), via their drones and assorted operatives, and their sheeple caught in the fold, are and have been railroading particular narratives (pseudo renewable energy and electric cars now for example), invasions (currently, take Syria for example or attempts at color revolutions) and other assorted operations over the course of history. This is but one brief snapshot of their modus operandi over time.

                  In effect, it matters little, unless they push back real hard (via protest, civil unrest/disobedience/rebellions), what most of their relatively-captive populations think or don’t think about what they want to do. They’ll push them through anyway, in a myriad of ways that include indoctrination, intimidation, deceit and outright force. (They are tough nuts to crack. We wouldn’t need rebellions and protests, etcetera, if they weren’t, but then we are not talking about enlightenment here.)

                  …”This and that is expanding.”; “You can’t resist/deny it.” ; “It’s for your own good.”; “They’re bad, we’re good.”; “Do this, don’t do that or you’ll get fined/go to prison/lose your job and so on.”…

                  The best many of us feel we can/could do is/was bitch and moan about it and about the likes of, say, Trump, Biden, Pinochet, Stalin, Mussolini or whoever else because the ‘State’ (or crony-capitalist plutarchy if you will, or however you want to call this sociopoliticultural fuckup we always seem to corner ourselves into) is currently ‘Just How It Is’, as a rationalization goes.

               10. Li Battery production is nowhere near scale yet. Production is still very primitive. The next 3- 10 years will be key. Just now LFP is displacing LA Motorcycle batteries

               11. “ Cruiser, dirt bike, scooter, UTV, or even watercraft, one thing every single type of vehicle we serve is that they all need batteries. If you’re on this site, you have a ride that needs one. The hard part? Figuring out which one is the best for you and your money.
                   Not too long ago, you only had one choice, and that was a lead-acid battery – basically a heavy box filled with lead plates and sulfuric acid that reliably created enough power to start everything from a 50cc scooter to a Mack truck. But in the last several years there’s been a revolution in the technology of portable power, and now lithium – the lightest metal in the universe, and soft enough to be cut with a knife – is powering everything from cell phones to solar homes.
                   Lithium-based batteries are new and high-tech, but they aren’t exactly cheap compared to tried-and-true lead-acid batteries. So are they really good enough for you to drop all the extra coin on one?
                   The short answer: yes, they are. But there are some conditions, so read on and see if they are really right for you.”

                   https://www.bikebandit.com/blog/tough-questions-answered-are-lithium-iron-batteries-really-better-than-lead-acid

               12. Lithium ion battery density has tripled between since 2010.

                   https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost-tripled-since-2010/

                   Tesla thinks they can increase density by half in three years or so.

                   Panasonic recently announced they will expand their Nevada factory. Buried at the bottom of the story they announce they will improve density 5% this year. It isn’t even news.

                   https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/08/panasonic-to-expand-battery-capacity-at-tesla-gigafactory/

                   The idea that batteries haven’t improved or aren’t improving is simply false.

               13. If we don’t get something for nothing, just off the cuff, I’d ask what did we have to do to get higher energy density batteries? More stuff in them? Are they heavier? What? Whatever it is or they are, that’s likely going to cost.

               14. Less stuff you don’t need. For example, Tesla say its new “tabless” battery cells will have a larger format. This is only possible if the battery produces less heat when charging and discharging, because the core of the battery would heat up otherwise. Less heat means less weight in the battery pack for cooling. Larger battery format means less packaging per unit battery capacity.

                   Your thinking seems muddled on two basic points: You seem to think need “more stuff” to do things better. That is simply confused. You also seem to imagine there is no way to improve modern technology. That is ridiculous. In ten years current tech will look old fashioned.

               15. Not necessarily more stuff, just maybe different stuff. But also, ‘technology’ that’s supposed to be improving our lives (never mind itself) (that’s part of the concept of technology from where I sit) is trashing the planet. So you have to factor that into your equations too. Likewise with improvements in technology that render other tech obsolete so that it gets thrown away, and so on.

                   But I was onto something else with regard to my question, but can’t remember it at the moment. Maybe it also had something to do with the myth of progress or Jevon’s Paradox. Anyway, if it comes back to me, I’ll try to let you know.

               16. Caelan —
                   In other words, I’m obviously right and you are obviously wrong, so you attempt to entangle me with another bullshit argument.

                   I won’t bother to read any replies.

               17. ?
                   LOL
                   If you say so. I’m semi-retired from this site anyway and have less motivational skin in the game. Sorry, babe.

            2. Lead-acid is great power storage but poor energy storage. Lead can not be recycled into an energy lead-acid battery but can into a starter battery. A starter battery is a poor energy storage device.

         2. Lots of battery news these days. If people are interested in keeping up with the innovations, rather than other people opinions, here are some sites that often post stories on the industry-
            https://www.greentechmedia.com/
            https://cleantechnica.com/
            https://www.evdriven.com/

            1. This also good:
               https://www.greencarcongress.com/batteries/

      3. I don’t expect that 14% CAGR global rate for W/S to continue unchanged.
         I expect it to increase significantly for much of this decade.
         And then at some point to settle down.
         Regardless of specific specific numbers, the point being that it is no longer a trivial player in the field of energy generation, and will be among the biggest sources (up there with nat gas) in the next decade.

         And no, this will not ‘save the world’. I get the message that this needs to reiterated and rehashed every thread.

      4. Ron —
         >The grid will never be 100% electric until they solve the storage problem.

         Solar is squeezing the price of electricity at peak times down to zero. All the current players are going to go broke, and when that happens they will stop producing electricity. This is already happening to the coal industry.

         I think what you might mean is, “Solar will never be able to provide the level of service currently provided by the grid until they solve the storage problem.” This may be correct, but it doesn’t mean the grid will survive in its current form.

         You live in a very rich country where tens of millions of people don’t have access to health care or adequate public safety, or transportation, or higher education. Do you really think utilities provide electricity out of the kindness of their hearts? No. They provide it because they make money providing it. And the profits will soon end, long before solar increases 20x, and long before there are enough batteries or other storage systems to go around.

         In fact it’s already happening. Coal is dying, gas is booming, but thanks to fracking, which has proved to be a financial black hole. Nuclear is a dead man walking. Meanwhile, blackouts have been common for decades, nobody cares. You can’t compete on price with solar because it has zero marginal costs, so even if you are losing money, there is no incentive to stop producing solar energy — as long as electricity prices are non-negative.

         There are two reasons why growth of solar is likely to be exponential. First, the more the manufacture, the cheaper it gets to manufacture. This kind of positive feedback loop is what drives exponential growth. The other feedback loop is that the more of your neighbors already have solar, the more likely you are to get it yourself. It is spreading like a virus.

         For example, people used to laugh at solar in Texas. Not any more. Suddenly it’s triple digit growth. This is partly because prices have fallen 40% in the last five years, and partly because people see other people making money on it.

         https://www.texasobserver.org/solar-texas/

         1. Hi alimbiquated,

            I agree that solar is rapidly becoming the universally cheapest energy source, but, one thought about zero marginal costs: those are crucial in some power markets, but not all. In a large part of the US power producers are paid not just for kWhs but also for reliably available capacity. The key idea here: markets are a social creation, and can be designed to incentivize pretty much whatever you want. So, the triumph of solar is not inevitable. I agree it’s likely, but we can’t be complacent.

            As we learned in 2016, complacency is the road to doom.

      5. I’ve not run across it, but there must be some sort of rule of thumb or algorithm that manufacturers should be using to decide when to cut back as the market for their product approaches saturation.

         Consider wind turbines. Once all the best spots are taken, and there’s a big surplus of wind energy on windy days, it’s going to be tough to impossible to justify investing more money in a wind turbine factory as the market for them changes from fast expansion to routine replacement of old turbines.

         I believe Ron is right. Compound growth is not likely to continue as the wind turbine market gets even close to the point that existing manufacturing capacity will be sitting idle for lack of customers.

         But I can’t guess what the time frame might be in the case of wind and solar manufacturing.

         1. there must be some sort of rule of thumb or algorithm that manufacturers should be using to decide when to cut back as the market for their product approaches saturation.

            I suppose this is a holy grail of farmers, miners and manufacturers – there’s nothing more characteristic of decentralized market economies than boom and bust. Conservatives attack this as “industrial planning” and liberals attack it as monopoly tactics.

            In other words…no, there is no reliable rule or procedure for this. There isn’t even agreement on the need for it.

         2. For wind, there will be a huge (massively huge) offshore global deployment I suspect.
            Also there will continued deployment on land where the grid has not been extended but the resource is robust, and the energy produced used for H2 or ammonia production.
            The world will be highly motivated to use these untapped areas as it gets hot and oil/coal/NG decline.

4. Carried over:

   “Today (September 21) was the autumnal equinox in the northern hemisphere, the last day of summer for the northern hemisphere and the last day of “winter” for the southern hemisphere. For those who are not as informed as Doug Leighton, today and tonight will be the same length all over the world. As of tomorrow the nights start getting longer than the days in the northern hemisphere with the converse being true for the southern hemisphere.”

   I’m happy to discover that you are so well informed Islandboy. I guess you know that Paleolithic people were familial with solstices and equinoxes, which, most people realize, define seasons. Of course, it’s unlikely ancients knew seasons are a result of the 23 degree tilt in the Earth’s axis, but this is about the first thing you learn in school science (about grade six), isn’t it? After all, doesn’t EVERY Elementary school classroom come with its own mechanical model where you are instructed to shine a flashlight at the “earth and moon” to see how seasons come about? You are sure to know that in the UK, people gather at Stonehenge and at Castlerigg to watch the sunrise on the day of the equinox, but others may not. ?

5. From today’s New York Times.

   CLIMATE DISRUPTION IS NOW LOCKED IN. THE NEXT MOVES WILL BE CRUCIAL.

   “America is now under siege by climate change in ways that scientists have warned about for years. But there is a second part to their admonition: Decades of growing crisis are already locked into the global ecosystem and cannot be reversed. This means the kinds of cascading disasters occurring today — drought in the West fueling historic wildfires that send smoke all the way to the East Coast, or parades of tropical storms lining up across the Atlantic to march destructively toward North America — are no longer features of some dystopian future. They are the here and now, worsening for the next generation and perhaps longer, depending on humanity’s willingness to take action…

   Their most sobering message was that the world still hasn’t seen the worst of it. Gone is the climate of yesteryear, and there’s no going back. The effects of climate change evident today are the results of choices that countries made decades ago to keep pumping heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at ever-increasing rates despite warnings from scientists about the price to be paid.

   “What we’re seeing today, this year, is just a small harbinger of what we are likely to get,” said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. Things are on track to get “twice as bad” as they are now, he said, “if not worse.” Earth has already warmed roughly one degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, since the 19th century. The most optimistic proposals made by world governments to zero out emissions envision holding warming to below two degrees Celsius. NATIONS REMAIN FAR FROM ACHIEVING THOSE GOALS.

   Again and again, climate scientists have shown that our choices now range from merely awful to incomprehensibly horrible. Will the recent spate of disasters be enough to shock voters and politicians into action? “We have a lot of evidence that that doesn’t happen,” said Dr. Garrard of the University of British Columbia.”

   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/climate/climate-change-future.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

   1. I gotta dispute almost everything I read in that article with some actually verifiable scientific information. Take this, MIT (2019) states human induced CO2 has negligible effects on continued climate change, making climate change a spontaneous process by this point. The Ohio State University states that a full 25% of the past 11,000 years globally have been warmer than the present. The University of Colorado states sea levels have consistently went up for the past 10,000 years. Finally, NASA (2019) states that the O-Zone hole is the smallest in recorded history. Add it all together, and the totality of scientific reality supports less to be concerned about than what the writers of the New York Times want you to freak out about.

      1. Perry,

         You state: “MIT (2019) states human induced CO2 has negligible effects on continued climate change, making climate change a spontaneous process by this point.” As far as I know MIT doesn’t state anything but if you provide references I’d be happy to read them. The same goes for your other nonsence. Meanwhile, here is a comment from a MIT paper with the applicable reference.

         BREACHING A “CARBON THRESHOLD” COULD LEAD TO MASS EXTINCTION

         “Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics and co-director of the Lorenz Center in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, has found that when the rate at which carbon dioxide enters the oceans pushes past a certain threshold — whether as the result of a sudden burst or a slow, steady influx — the Earth may respond with a runaway cascade of chemical feedbacks, leading to extreme ocean acidification that dramatically amplifies the effects of the original trigger.”

         https://news.mit.edu/2019/carbon-threshold-mass-extinction-0708

         1. Five of California’s 10 largest fires in modern history are all burning at once
            https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/17/1008473/wildfires-california-prescribed-burns-climate-change-forests/

            1. There’s just one question every lawful, taxpaying Californian should be asking themselves these days…Arizona, Nevada, Texas, or Idaho?

               1. Republicans hate America so much. I guess that comes with the Russian money.

6. There is no legal path to secede from the union.
   Legally, the state legislature of N.Carolina and Wisconsin can authorize an electoral college slate for trump, even if he loses the popular vote in those states, for example. I mention those states because they have very activist right wing dominated legislatures (courtesy of gerrymandering), despite roughly equal party affiliation in the state.
   I’m guessing it will take greater than 5 million popular vote win for Biden to ‘win’ the election. Maybe 6.

   1. In 2000 and 2016 the “winner” did not receive a majority of popular votes.
      This open for Trump to steal–
      I agree, a significant majority is needed.
      But, will he leave office?

      1. But, will he leave office?

         I kinda hope he doesn’t. At noon on January 20th Biden will be sworn in as president. Trump will be a private citizen with no power whatsoever. I would just love seeing the Secret Service drag his sorry ass out of the White House.

         1. WWE style lol
            He’s burnt. If he loses he’ll probably get a PodCast going or something lame.

   2. Legally, the state legislature of N.Carolina and Wisconsin can authorize an electoral college slate for trump, even if he loses the popular vote in those states, for example.

      No! They cannot do that.

      SCOTUS rules presidential electors must back their states’ popular vote winner

      WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court ruled unanimously Monday that states can require presidential electors to back their states’ popular vote winner in the Electoral College.

      The ruling, just under four months before the 2020 election, leaves in place laws in 32 states and the District of Columbia that bind electors to vote for the popular-vote winner, and electors almost always do so anyway.

      So-called faithless electors have not been critical to the outcome of a presidential election, but that could change in a race decided by just a few electoral votes. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

      1. Ron, that recent SCOTUS addresses a different issue.

         “The Constitution gives each state legislature the power to decide how its state’s electors are chosen[119] and it can be easier and cheaper for a state legislature to simply appoint a slate of electors than to create a legislative framework for holding elections to determine the electors.”

         “In the earliest presidential elections, state legislative choice was the most common method of choosing electors”- [that still remains a state option, and is likely a path only in a contested election where the deadline for submitting the electoral slate might be missed. That could come into play this time]

         “Legislative appointment was brandished as a possibility in the 2000 election. Had the recount continued, the Florida legislature was prepared to appoint the Republican slate of electors to avoid missing the federal safe-harbor deadline for choosing electors.”

         Here is an article that discusses this issue-https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/trump-cancel-election-day-constitution-state-electors-coronavirus.html

         1. Hickory, for starters your link is dated “MARCH 13, 2020”. My post shows SCOTUS ruled on “JULY 6, 2020”, almost four months later, that the people must do the deciding. I could not find your quote in either article. However, your linked article states that Trump could ask states to cancel the election and just assign their electors to him. Well, I am not sure he could do that but if he tried no state would likely go along with him. And if any dared, it would be only the very extreme red states, like Alabama, Utah, or Montana, states that he already has anyway.

            Hickory, it just ain’t possible. There will definitely be an election. And failing some black swan Biden will win by a landslide.

            1. Ron, once again, that SCOTUS ruling addresses a different issue (faithless electors).
               It does not affect the Constitution, where the state legislatures are given ultimate authority over the the electoral college assignment for that state.
               I hope you are correct that the outcome of this election will be straight forward (a landslide). Short of a landslide, the setup is present for extreme chaos, making the 2000 Florida scenario look tame.

               from wikipedia-“Legislative appointment was brandished as a possibility in the 2000 election. Had the recount continued, the Florida legislature was prepared to appoint the Republican slate of electors to avoid missing the federal safe-harbor deadline for choosing electors.”

               https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx
               “Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the combined total of its congressional delegation, and each state legislature is free to determine the method it will use to select its own electors.”

               1. “Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the combined total of its congressional delegation, and each state legislature is free to determine the method it will use to select its own electors.”

                  And every state has already chosen to use the popular vote to pick those electors. And those electors must vote according to who got the most votes in that state.

                  Case closed. I have no idea why you now think that may now not be the case.

               2. Simple Ron. The constitution is the bottom line on this.
                  I didn’t make this up- it was brought to the attention of listeners of NPR by experts in the field of electoral law that were being interviewed.

                  “Paul Smith of the Campaign Legal Center wrote a brief agreeing with the states. He points to the language in the Constitution that says the states may appoint Electoral College delegates in “the manner” the state legislature directs.”

                  The state legislatures could step in if the results are contested and the deadline for the electoral college slate approaches- Dec. 8, 2020: Deadline for Resolving Election Disputes. All state recounts and court contests over presidential election results must be completed by this date.

                  note- a bill has been introduced by Marco Rubio to extend the deadline to Jan 1st, in an attempt to avoid chaos- ‘The safe harbor date is presently six days prior to the meeting of the Electoral College. This year, it is scheduled for December 8 in 2020. Rubio’s bill would push the safe harbor date to January 1, 2021 and the Electoral College meeting to January 2, 2021, providing nearly an additional month for states to finish their initial counts so that any recounts or other disputes can be resolved.’
                  It will be interesting to see how it fairs.

               3. Hickory, you are correct. The sonofabitch is going to try to do exactly that.

            2. Well—
               Trump Says ‘We’re Gonna Have To See’ About Peaceful Transfer Of Power Post-Election

               https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-election-results-transfer-power_n_5f6bd70fc5b653a2bcaf9455

               Hint:
               “What was Jackson’s response to the court ruling?
               Pres. Andrew Jackson declined to enforce the Supreme Court’s decision, thus allowing states to enact further legislation damaging to the tribes. The U.S. government began forcing the Cherokee off their land in 1838.”

               Like Jackson, Trump has eliminated most of the heads of the power structure.

               We shall see—-

7. So, does this mean he has NOT done a very good job?

   COVID: US DEATH TOLL PASSES 200,000

   “In March, President Donald Trump said if deaths were between 100,000 and 200,000, the country would have done a “very good job”. Mr. Trump also said he and his administration had done “a phenomenal job” and gave himself an “A+” for his handling of the pandemic.”

   BTW More than 6.8 million people are known to have been infected in the US, more than in any other country.

   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54244515

   1. COVID-19: All the wrong moves in all the wrong places
      https://stke.sciencemag.org/content/13/649/eabe4242

      1. Republican social Darwinists on paradoxical quest for herd immunity.

         ‘Tis I.

8. Thanks for the great post IB! I really appreciate what you and all the writers here do. Looking forward to the comments too.

9. Tesla is probably way over-hyped, and their stock price is insane at this point, but you can’t deny they are pushing the EV industry forward in a big way, and lots was revealed yesterday during Battery Day. If it’s true that because of their new battery tech in three years there will be a $25K Tesla sedan, then this may very well be the last decade of significant sales of ICE cars. They are claiming a pathway to a 50% reduction in battery cost and significant reductions in size:

   https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/tesla-battery-puzzle-innovation/

   This is a car that will easily last 500K miles with very little maintenance. For many people they will purchase one car and then have it their entire adult lives. For reference this car will probably have a 250 mile range and full self-driving, if that’s something you care about (I don’t). I’ve been driving a 2013 Leaf that was $37,500 new and had an 82 mile range, with a battery that will likely only last about 120K miles. That is one decade’s worth of improvement.

   What will be available by 2032?

10. For those interested in proactive energy policy-
    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/22/2035-clean-grid-90-electrify-50/

    For those who hate the idea of a proactive stance, and would rather watch the more severe failure scenario unfold, avoid this one.

11. Exponential growth?

    GROWTH IN THE ELECTRIC-VEHICLE MARKET HAS SLOWED

    “EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018 [in US]. But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased—or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs.”

    https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales#

    1. So for McKinsey, 9% YoY growth is a “plunge”. Sounds like the genius that wrote that headline doesn’t know the difference between a function and its derivative.

       Reminds me of the time Nixon bragged that the rate at which inflation was increasing was falling. Inflation itself is a change in price, this was the first use of the third derivative in public discourse, to my knowledge.

       Whether EV sales are increasing exponentially or not will not be determined by looking at one or two data points.

       1. Yes, in the U.S. EV sales are still in their infancy; too wide a range is possible when projecting growth rates from a tiny base.

          1. GM and Tesla began losing their incentives during that time period (2019-early 2020). That left only the Nissan Leaf fully incentivized. The structure of the incentives discourages manufacturers and was very poorly done. Hopefully we will get something better in place after the election…

          2. 2.3m vehicle isn’t tiny.

             So far this year, EV and plug-in hybrids hit 18% of the EU market.

             https://thedriven.io/2020/08/31/electric-vehicle-and-hybrid-sales-hit-record-share-of-18-per-cent-in-europe/

             The question is not the size of the market (where we are on the vertical axis of the chart) but how many different data points along the horizontal axis we select to do our analysis. choosing two or three points and concluding the shape of a curve from them is nonsense.

12. As they say, the future is hard to predict!

    THE DEBT CRISIS IS MOUNTING FOR OIL ECONOMIES

    “In what is perhaps a cruel twist, this unprecedented situation is stifling the Gulf economies’ attempts to diversify their economies away from oil. This is incredibly obvious in Saudi Arabia, which had the ambitious goal of becoming a diversified economy by 2030. The goal, however, was to be financed with money from oil sales, and these collapsed this year as the pandemic spread globally. Vision 2030 may well be on its deathbed as the Kingdom, which is the Middle East’s largest producer of oil, grapples with the drop in oil revenues that has promoted a tripling of VAT, a hefty cut in public spending, and the removal of state subsidies for public servants.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Debt-Crisis-Is-Mounting-For-Oil-Economies.html

13. Ron, “Do you think civilization will EVER collapse?”

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-september-14-2020/#comment-708652

    Let’s start with the work “collapse”. My understand it’s something that happens very quickly and ends in nearly total destruction. This would not include a bell shaped curve, a long or step decline. I think collapse regarding civilization is used to freely and vaguely. I’m not even sure what it means to you.

    I don’t see resource constraint stopping GDP growth for at least a couple of decades. A good example, the Permian has shown us there is plenty of available growth in the liquid fuel arena. We have proof a $100 oil can grow production faster than GDP and grow GDP at the same time. In addition there are now alternatives to liquid fossil fuel transportation, from EV’s to Zoom. There is also an incredible amount of waste and inefficiency in the system which high energy prices would help clean up.

    Regarding the environment, it’s a big planet and I suspect their is probably another half century before humanities abuse ends the days of blue skies. I also suspect we may have well passed the point of saving the planet for humanity and if we haven’t, we will. The fact we actually understand we are witnessing the next extinction and it doesn’t even seem to matter. Says it all about the future. It was 49 years ago I started becoming aware of the troubled environment. It’s done nothing but get worse. A thousand years from now there maybe a few million humans living at the poles or underground. Not much of a better quality of life than my 94 year old mother with Alzheimer’s. I expect to get out of here by natural means and don’t have any children. I try to minimize my impact on the environment because it’s the right thing to do. I don’t need a god to threaten me with fire and stones for eternity.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9BA6fFGMjI

    A lot(most likely more than ever) of us are living in unbelievable good times. On the backside of that, most likely there are more of us living at the bare minimum than ever. For those who think we can go back to bow and arrows, bikes, horses, vegetable gardens, slide rules and abacuses need to experience today’s good life.

    Thanks for your part of my education

    1. HB, after reading your post, twice, I came to the conclusion that you do expect collapse, or perhaps a slow collapse, but not for at least half a century from now. That is 2070 or later. I dearly hope you are right but I am afraid you are off by 30 to 40 years.

       The problem HB, is that I don’t expect to live another 10 years, so I will never know if I am right or not. As I have said before, I hope to be safely dead before the collapse happens. And I fully expect my hopes will be achieved. However, I don’t think you really realize the gravity of the situation. Very little depends on peak oil. Peak oil will be only a minor player in the crash. Hunger and anarchy and political insurrection will be the major players. It won’t be pretty.

       Thanks for your input. I enjoy reading everyone’s opinion on this subject.

       1. Ron, you might find this interesting.

          FOUR REASONS CIVILIZATION WON’T DECLINE: IT WILL COLLAPSE

          “How people respond to the collapse of industrial civilization will determine how bad things get and what will replace it. The challenges are monumental. They will force us to question our identities, our values, and our loyalties like no other experience in our history. Who are we? Are we, first and foremost, human beings struggling to raise our families, strengthen our communities, and coexist with the other inhabitants of Earth? Or do our primary loyalties belong to our nation, our culture, our race, our ideology, or our religion? Can we put the survival of our species and our planet first, or will we allow ourselves to become hopelessly divided along national, cultural, racial, religious, or party lines?

          The eventual outcome of this great implosion is up for grabs. Will we overcome denial and despair; kick our addiction to petroleum; and pull together to break the grip of corporate power over our lives? Can we foster genuine democracy, harness renewable energy, reweave our communities, re-learn forgotten skills, and heal the wounds we’ve inflicted on the Earth? Or will fear and prejudice drive us into hostile camps, fighting over the dwindling resources of a degraded planet? The stakes could not be higher.”

          https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-08-10/four-reasons-civilization-wont-decline-it-will-collapse/

          1. Thanks, Doug, I loved the article. The author writes of Steven Pinker:

             Popular Pollyannas, like cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker, provide this anxious crowd with soothing assurances that the titanic ship of progress is unsinkable. Pinker’s publications have made him the high priest of progress.[1] While civilization circles the drain, his ardent audiences find comfort in lectures and books brimming with cherry-picked evidence to prove that life is better than ever, and will surely keep improving. Yet, when questioned, Pinker himself admits, “It’s incorrect to extrapolate that the fact that we’ve made progress is a prediction that we’re guaranteed to make progress.”[2]

             Pinker’s rosy statistics cleverly disguise the fatal flaw in his argument. The progress of the past was built by sacrificing the future—and the future is upon us. All the happy facts he cites about living standards, life expectancy, and economic growth are the product of an industrial civilization that has pillaged and polluted the planet to produce temporary progress for a growing middle class—and enormous profits and power for a tiny elite.

             Pinker was once one of my favorite authors. I devoured “The Blank Slate”, it was one of the best books I have ever read. But Pinker’s latest books are total bullshit. Yes, things have gotten better, a lot better, for folks like us living in the developed world. But all our gain has come at the expense of the natural world and is succeeding in destroying the environment. Why Pinker cannot see what is obviously happening to this planet is beyond me.

             1. I too enjoyed “The Blank Slate”, but Pinker has faded into the rear view mirror.

       2. “anarchy and political insurrection will be the major players. It won’t be pretty.”

          Lets hope we don’t get a big taste of that here in the USA this winter…

          1. Can you picture raised up big tire pick-up trucks with American, Don’t Step On Me and Make America White Again flags loaded with 4 white guys and AR15’s at the ready for Trumps call to arms ?

             Climate change and peak oil isn’t America’s biggest problem. Trump is trying to take down the American empire. To the victors goes the spoils. Putin is already counting his new found territories.

             1. Putin plays a weak hand well. But it’s still a weak hand.
                Trump plays a strong hand poorly. He’s an idiot. Long story.
                Germany has been the leader of the free world since January 1, 1990. USA isn’t very essential to the world these days, but it’s still normal for American’s to think that it is. Again, long story.
                France (66 million) Germany (83 million) UK (66 million) et al. (WAG approx. 50 million/EU total is 446 million) will handle Russia (144 million) quite ok without America; America just won’t like it very much as things usually involve a bit of accommodation, but not much territory I suspect. EU militaries personnel vs Russian military personnel is 1.4 million vs 900,000. Not a good ratio for going on a territorial offensive.

                As for the tooled up yokels; yeah they’re gonna need some attention from law enforcement. It’ll be interesting to see if they get it. Come to think of it, it’ll be interesting to see if they don’t get it and if some other group perhaps takes it upon themselves. Anyway, it looks bad for America, but I think the world, minus the Russian people of course, will be safe from Putin.

                1. Your FaceBook analysis would make China and India the superpowers of the world. Trump is not an ” idiot”. His administration is as dangerous as the 1930’s Nazis.

                   Just admit you got it wrong in 2016

                2. Who in the fucking hell thinks India is going to be a superpower ? The country is facing starvation . I am witnessing a collapse in ” real time ” . I am going to post everyday on the situation there . You will know what is coming your way . Like John Wayne said ” You ain’t seen nothing yet .”

                3. 8.7 million results in 0.72 seconds
                   https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/is-india-still-a-rising-superpower/

                4. HB- your talents are wasted here; you should be CIA, Director of Complicated Analysis.
                   Considering complex global economic interdependencies, it would do you no harm to know, that in reality, the world is multipolar. Starting with the collapse of the Soviet Union the term Hyperpower was used to describe USA, that is to say, it is a state that dominates all other states (military, culture, economy) and is considered to be a step higher than a superpower. Recent developments show that USA still remains preeminent, but not dominant, as policy failure in Syria secondary to opposition from Syria, Iran, Russia et al has clearly demonstrated. Maybe Biden will turn that around for ya lol. My recollection is that in 1991 we’d just fly 1/2 way around the world and kick your ass, for four days, for $61 billion. That doesn’t happen anymore. Nor will it again. So USA is perhaps back to being a Superpower Light™; or a Great Power. Terminology varies with paradigm.
                   Due to their large markets, growing military strength, economic potential, and influence in international affairs, China, the European Union, India and Russia are most cited as perhaps soon having the potential of achieving superpower status. I would argue that Russia is a well armed rogue state, not a peer or even a near peer competitor of USA or EU; China Is a Peer, even though it is not a SP. You should read more about that which you like to speak.
                   Within the context of the Eurasian theater vis vis pending Russian territorial expansion and your hysterical prattling on about PuTiN, my analysis stands.
                   Green Party 2020

                5. oh, and HB, I’m not exactly certain what influence the terminology used to describe the power that China and India possess will have upon a military conflict between EU and Russia. Could you please explain the influence you think it will have, since you thought it worth mentioning.

          2. Do you think he won’t do it?
             https://digbysblog.net/2020/09/do-you-think-he-wont-do-it/

             1. Thats a good writeup of the election risks/scenarios

14. New Zealand’s military evaluates UBCO 2X2 electric motorcycle

    https://advrider.com/new-zealands-military-evaluates-ubco-2×2-electric-motorcycle/

15. Tesla Says It Wants to Be a Lithium Miner. That Could Be a Problem for Extractor Stocks

    Tesla is now officially getting into the mining business with a lithium claim on 10,000 acres in Nevada.

    At the Battery Day event yesterday, as part of its entire new battery supply strategy, Tesla announced that it is developing its own lithium processing method.

    Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering at Tesla, said:

    “We are going to use a new process that we will pioneer. It’s a sulfate-free process again, we skip the intermediate. It will result in a 33% reduction in lithium cost.”

    They didn’t go into too many details about that process.

    CEO Elon Musk added:

    “What is the best way to take the ore and extract the lithium and do so in an environmentally-friendly way? We have been looking at from a first principle physic standpoint instead of just the way it has always been done. We found that we can actually use table salt, sodium chloride, to basically extract the lithium from the ore. Nobody has done this before to the best of my knowledge.

    He didn’t into more details about the process, and the comment is already raising some eyebrows in the lithium industry.

    But the big news is that Tesla plans to secure the lithium itself.

    The CEO confirmed that it acquired a lithium claim in Nevada:

    “We got rights to a lithium claim deposit in Nevada – over 10,000 acres.”

    Nevada is known to have a large reserve of libitum that is still not being exploited in volume.

    Lithium Americas is one of the companies most far along in the development of mining operations in the region.

    Musk said that Tesla is planning to have a low impact on the environment that it is mining:

    “We take a chunk of dirt in the ground, extract the lithium, and put the chunk of dirt back where it was. It will look pretty much the same as before.”

    Tesla didn’t offer a clear timeline on getting its mining operations up and running.

    https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/tesla-mining-business-buys-lithium-claim-acres-nevada/

    1. The news didn’t seem to do the stonks price any favors.

       1. “Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.”

       2. Albemarle(ALB) a lithium mining company lost almost 18% of it’s value yesterday

          1. Perhaps because as recently as July ALB was being hyped as a stonk “That Could SKYROCKET With Tesla”. Now it appears to be sinking with Tesla. I think it’s called a ‘pump-and-dump’.

             1. Tesla up 709% one year stock price.
                It will be higher next year.
                So will ALB.
                Regardless of the Musk persona.

16. New Scientist has an article on nuclear batteries.

    They describe it as a long shot, but people are working on it.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24733010-700-safe-extra-long-life-nuclear-batteries-could-soon-be-a-reality/

17. MELTING ANTARCTIC ICE WILL RAISE SEA LEVEL BY 2.5 METRES – EVEN IF PARIS CLIMATE GOALS ARE MET

    Even if temperatures were to fall again after rising by 2C (3.6F), the temperature limit set out in the Paris agreement, the ice would not regrow to its initial state, because of self-reinforcing mechanisms that destabilise the ice. “The more we learn about Antarctica, the direr the predictions become,” said Anders Levermann, co-author of the paper from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

    Jonathan Bamber, a professor of glaciology at the University of Bristol, who was not involved with the research, said: “This study provides compelling evidence that even moderate climate warming has incredibly serious consequences for humanity, and those consequences grow exponentially as the temperature rises. The committed sea level rise from Antarctica even at 2C represents an existential threat to entire nation states. We’re looking at removing nations from a map of the world because they no longer exist.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/23/melting-antarctic-ice-will-raise-sea-level-by-25-metres-even-if-paris-climate-goals-are-met-study-finds

    1. Meanwhile,

       UNPRECEDENTED GREENLAND MELT

       “In recent years, the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has undergone substantial melt, contributing to sea level rise. Melt events are largely dominated by distinct episodes wherein vast swathes of Greenland’s surface are rapidly lost, as observed in 2010, 2012 and most recently 2019.”

       https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0055-9

18. Trump isn’t the problem.
    Its all the voters who went for him in 2016.

    They knew full well (or had no excuse not to know)-
    that he is overtly racist, and supportive of white supremacy
    that he cares more about himself than anything
    that he has a personality disorder (extreme narcissism at minimum)
    that is he is willing to break any legal or financial or business ethical standards if he think he will benefit
    that he doesn’t give a shit about poor people
    that he has no true respect for military , fire, police, hospital workers or other ‘little people’
    that he has no allegiance to the values of free press, voting rights, one person-one vote
    that his wealth was based on a huge inheritance ($400 million in todays dollars), and not business acumen
    that he has a very poor attention span and has very poor reading comprehension
    that his judgement, his ‘gut’ instincts are extremely poor and juvenile
    that he is a terrible ally and values loyalty over everything, including minimum competence
    that you can not trust him with your womenfolk…

    I could go on. It was all clearly written before the last election.
    Why are people so eager to support a Mussolini want to be.
    We fought so hard against fascism, to now give into it so easily.
    History will not kind.
    What a fucking disgrace and embarrassment.

    1. Hickory, I always read your comments. This one is A+. Hoping for a peaceful transfer of power to Biden in January…

19. The future has arrived folks,

    ECOTOURISM GEM REDUCED TO ASHES AS BRAZIL WETLANDS BURN

    “It’s sad to think about how it was before and how it is now. We were in constant contact with nature, we saw the animals up close. Now all we see are ashes.” Similar stories have been unfolding across the Pantanal, where the annual record for the number of wildfires has already been broken, less than nine months into the year.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-ecotourism-gem-ashes-brazil-wetlands.html

    1. Doug , I can only symphatise with you . I am in the same boat . Shout and shout but nobody cares . Not until the commons are hit by a hammer will they wake up . But then for guys like you ,me ,Ron etc ” Someone has to play the piano in the brothel ” . 🙂

       1. hole in head —

          Yeah, I’m often portrayed as an alarmist. However, at my age all I can do is speak up for my kids and Grandchildren and the creatures (animals, fish, birds, etc.) that will have to try to make a home for themselves on our increasingly devastated planet. It seems that people of all ages are more inclined to play FreeCell on their smart phone then educate themselves which is strange to me because never has it been easier to get the latest scientific news in an easily digestible form.

          1. I remember when the internet got commercially popular and I thought ‘oh great, say good-bye to stupid ideas’, in reality stupid ideas have only grown in popularity. It’s measurable; look at the prevalence of flat earthers and antivaxxers prior to internet and now. The internet is a powerful democratizing force, the problem is most people are idiots.

             1. Netscape 1 was a huge advance—
                But few were out there, and any commerce was looked down upon.
                I was in Maui, with a good pipe, but it was interesting, and a bit lonely.
                Mosaic worked earlier, but 1 made things easier.

          2. Educating people about serious environmental risks is the responsible thing to do.

             But…it’s only the first step. If you want to make a difference for your children and grandchildren you need to include information about solutions (even if they are only very partial solutions). Otherwise the information is just depressing and counterproductive.

             I realize you’re feeling discouraged and despairing. But I don’t believe you’ve given up entirely, otherwise you wouldn’t be putting effort into providing these warnings.

             Don’t think that solutions need to be global, or perfect. Change most often comes from a lot of small influences and incremental steps.

20. All Points Bulletin
    JHK just posted an interview with Charlie Hall.
    Cozy up around the chair little ones.

    1. Oho… Let me get my pillow and tea… Where are you sitting? Ok, I’ll sit over here, then… (Cae balances another pillow on top of Survivalist’s head…) Here’s one for you.

       Timely too, as the kind of mystical EROEI, at least as depicted by that ‘minumum required EROEI for certain levels of civilization’ pyramid graphic, seems to finally be grazing near the top of the pyramid. Finally! Gawd I hate waiting for these kinds of things! ~15:1-12:1?

       If less mystical, that’s gonna clash with alternative energy buildouts, yes?, unless we can continue on with what some suspect or consider is the excuse that’s covid for continuing to brake/break the economy…

       And then some more helicopter money to buy the stuff, right?, since more are out of work and so can less afford to purchase/pay for much beyond essentials. Something like that? Do tell! ^u^

       Or will the great unwashed economic slave masses simply be cut loose to yet again fend for themselves, oceans away from their former owners’ boltholes?

       BTW, D. Orlov might be back in Russia.

21. There is a great mapping tool to see the expected annual coastal flooding in 2050, under the current trend we are on.
    Keep in mind that any storm surge from bigger storms is on top of this.
    There is a very large amount of coastal infrastructure at risk- port facilities, naval bases, railways, highways, nat gas pipelines, sewage facilities for example.
    Doug, look how much land in the Vancouver metro area is going to flood.

    https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/
    click on the link for Interactive Map in the top box.

    1. Hickory —

       Yes, Vancouver is especially vulnerable. First, they took the best farmland and turned in into apartment block country; the main area in question, Richmond, is mostly just barely above sea level. [just looked it up — Averages one metre above sea level. Area: 50.067 square miles.]

       Another problem, thousands of (tall) apartments were built over thixotropic clays (clays that are vulnerable to earthquake shear-stress, (or, as we geophysicists say, time dependent viscosity.). One good shake and the base of the whole massive apartment area could easily be turned into gel. Maybe the Key word here is liquefaction, a phenomenon in which the strength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by earthquake shaking (or other rapid loading). BTW Liquefaction and related phenomena have been responsible for tremendous amounts of damage in historical earthquakes around the world. At best you wind up with leaning towers.

       Note: 1) like California, Vancouver is quake country (they’re just waiting for the next (overdue) big one; and, 2) This is NOT me being alarmist. Every geoscientist that has passed through UBC in the past fifty years knows about it. So much for urban planning! Maybe they’ll send a delegation over to Holland some day and, at least get some classes on how to build decent dikes. ?

       1. Yes. I am familiar with the Cascadia scenario, due anytime.
          Although I have lived on the west coast for decades, it only took me about year to realize that a big earthquake will do so much more damage if it comes when the soil is saturated.
          Infrastructure in the NW may be set back 100 years.

          I love the story of how the date of the last big earthquake was determined [Jan 26, 1700]

          btw- thanks for posting all the interesting reports. Appreciated.

22. More Friday morning joy.

    MARINE HEATWAVES ARE HUMAN MADE

    “Heatwaves in the world’s oceans have become over 20 times more frequent due to human influence. This is what researchers from the Oeschger Center for Climate Research at the University of Bern are now able to prove. Marine heatwaves destroy ecosystems and damage fisheries.

    A marine heatwave (ocean heatwave) is an extended period of time in which the water temperature in a particular ocean region is abnormally high. In recent years, heatwaves of this kind have caused considerable changes to the ecosystems in the open seas and at the coast. Their list of negative effects is long: Marine heatwaves can lead to increased mortality among birds, fish and marine mammals, they can trigger harmful algal blooms, and greatly reduce the supply of nutrients in the ocean. Heatwaves also lead to coral bleaching, trigger movements of fish communities to colder waters, and may contribute to the sharp decline of the polar icecaps.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-marine-heatwaves-human-made.html

    1. If that’s true, now I’ll have to waste time cleaning up dead polar bears washing up in my backyard.

       1. Your problems will be more about food, energy, and humans.

23. This is roughly one year old (maybe more gas since then):

    AUSTRALIA HAS DODGED GLOBAL ATTENTION ON FOSSIL FUELS BECAUSE OF ASSIDUOUS DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

    “When it comes to global fossil fuel dealers, Australia is a kingpin. It is the world’s largest coal exporter, having captured a larger share of the global seaborne coal market than Saudi Arabia has of the global oil market. Australia is the largest liquefied natural gas exporter, too. From 2000 to 2015, Australian coal exports more than doubled and LNG exports tripled, and since then LNG exports have nearly tripled again. When you tally the greenhouse gases from the fossil fuels exported by each country, Australia’s coal and gas exports total over 1.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide – more than double its domestic emissions – making it the world’s third largest exporter of fossil carbon, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2019/sep/24/australia-has-dodged-global-attention-on-fossil-fuels-because-of-assiduous-diplomatic-efforts

24. Finally, with this I’ll shut up for today (sighs of relief).

    MAJOR WIND-DRIVEN OCEAN CURRENTS ARE SHIFTING TOWARD THE POLES

    “The severe droughts in the USA and Australia are the first sign that the tropics, and their warm temperatures, are apparently expanding in the wake of climate change. But until now, scientists have been unable to conclusively explain the reasons for this, because they were mostly focusing on atmospheric processes. Now, experts at the AWI have solved the puzzle: the alarming expansion of the tropics is not caused by processes in the atmosphere, but quite simply by warming subtropical ocean.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-major-wind-driven-ocean-currents-shifting.html

25. BBC Future does a better job than any American media I’m aware of (excepting resilience.org possibly) of grappling with the possibility of collapse and where we are reading this century. Definitely worth a read:

    Are we living at the ‘hinge of history’? http://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200923-the-hinge-of-history-long-termism-and-existential-risk

26. Consumer Reports does good work.
    They report that EV and PHEV owners are saving an average of 50%…

    ‘Consumer Reports used data from its 2019 and 2020 reliability surveys, which includes information about thousands of electric and gas vehicles. The analysis concluded that electric car (BEV and PHEV) drivers are saving an average of 50% over gas cars when it comes to maintenance and repair over the life of the vehicles, which is defined as 200,000 miles.’

    I have not seen the original report, just a commentary on it,

    1. EVs are easily looking to be 4x as efficient and last 4-8x as ICE cars. Each EV sale will replace the sale of 4 traditional cars over time.

       The first half of this decade converting fleets to EVs will be a no brainer: known daily mileage and easy night charging. The second half will see a larger take up by the general public worldwide . At some point folks start worrying about the availability of gas pumps and range anxiety gets flipped on its head. Then the whole infrastructure will go bankrupt quickly. My wag is this will happen by the end of this decade and ICE manufacturing will be basically kaput by 2030 for almost all uses. It will be a real change and it will wipe out 20M barrels a day of oil consumption. If you’ve driven an EV this is as obvious as not owing a Betamax after Blockbuster started carrying VHS.

27. One for the cornucopians and the energy illiterate
    https://un-denial.com/2020/09/22/maximizing-power-with-fewer-children/

    The MORT Awareness thing sounds stupid to me- every third thought is about my own death.

    1. Also a good reminder for malthusians Survivalist, very appropriate to bring this here. We’re about to get a taste of the principle in a downsizing world…
       May you live interesting times 🙂

       1. I’m very glad you liked it. Good comments on that blog too I feel

28. Construction To A T

    Dot In The Sky

    “You went to climb aboard
    Construction to a T
    Shattering responsibilities

    Eternal life
    From earthly vacation
    A burning knife won’t cut you out
    Of ice cold persuasion

    You accepted the ride
    With the exception of life
    You might find yourself in love
    With deception and lies

    An unconventional mind
    Was your ticket to die
    You might find yourself in love
    With the dot in the sky…”

    

    1. TechDaddy is up to 5 or 6 kids now, that we know of. I bet he donates sperm and views it as an act of benevolence lol

       1. The 2 Daddies

          The two appear to be wearing the same uniform, right down to the blue-striped tie. That doesn’t appear to be Musk’s style from what I’ve seen and I wouldn’t put it past an ‘image consultant’ (even one inside his head) telling him, even at the last minute, that he’s more likely to get funding from the tax-fleeced, or more of it, if he wears something ‘similar’. I hear Trump likes flattery, and what is said about imitation? Then again, maybe it’s just a coincidence or the prelude to a fun, get-acquainted, matching-suit party. Never been to one of those; a fun, get-acquainted, matching-suit party.

          …So 5 or 6 that we know of? Where’d the ‘or’ come from? Is one of them on life-support or something?

          1. CM- I’m not sure of your taste in music, but I thought you might like this fellow Canuck of yours. It’s kinda spooky!
             Language warming

             Dear Liberals
             https://youtu.be/enHbTkDEdO4

             1. Warming language, yes. ‘u^
                I’m an anarchist of course, so reject the notion of ‘Canuck’ applied to myself, but alas, I’m indeed framed within that geopolitical construct.
                Thanks for sharing. I listened to the whole thing: Sharp and apt lyrics, set to a nice spooky brass, bass loop and stylistic drum track. I’d be tempted to add a piano track. Not a bad album cover either.

                …Back from a bike ride and noticed that this is still editable… So to add that I listened to the Kunstlercast with Charlie Hall and while it was ok, I was a little disappointed that they didn’t really get into EROEI. I was hoping that they’d speak something of where we might be now and how things might be affected and at further EROEI reductions too (and when they might kick in). Oh well, maybe another time.

                1. I’m glad you liked it.
                   I like my hip hop spooky.
                   I had at first found Lou, speaking of anarchists, by way of this video. I bet you like them both. I too was hoping for more from a Charlie Hall interview; but alas, he’s not upon this earth for me. He sounds retired. Good for him.
                   https://youtu.be/DBemo3nPW9s

                2. Otra Era (Another Era)

                   It’s Lee Reed. ‘u’ Lou Reed is the one that did the cute, ‘Walk On The Wild Side‘.

                   The concept in the video of putting his windows everywhere is great, like for example the suicide victim that flies past. Full of dark humor.

                   Incidentally, I appreciate most stuff that feels somehow authentic and sincere and like to be exposed to variety, whether I go looking for it or someone offers it.
                   Some forms have certain places, such as for background, maybe with some company, while others to simply listen to alone while doing little else.

                   Very recently, I’ve been inspired by looking into what the younger adults are doing these days, musically.
                   This is perhaps in part because it is felt that many are increasingly being especially abandoned by their world around them, yet with less understanding about and capabilities to deal with it.
                   I realize that some Millennials, for example, among the youngest of the young adults, can present challenges, but maybe less those who use their time more constructively, like musically, and who receive the kinds of support that they would seem to need now more than ever.

                   Some results for example can be rather amusing, while others seem beyond their apparent years in some regards as in the case of part of the content of my previous comment.

                3. The Velvet Underground was my first exposure to Reed.
                   Their first album is one of the all time classics.

                4. How did you like them?

                5. A classic, without the West Coast optimism.
                   Brilliant

                6. Faves/songs from them to recommend?

                7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN-EZW0Plsg

                8. From cities to sailboats and with a two-chord guitar grounding.
                   But just one?

                   I just heard part of another track of theirs that has a woman vocalist with a comment under the video suggesting that it could easily pass for a contemporary tune from the 2010’s, which I’m inclined to agree.

                9. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jog8gh40Fho

                10. Thanks. I will set aside some quality time and review the entire bananalbum.
                    ‘Hightrekker’ might have multiple meanings… especially if one is on the ocean as opposed to some mountain range…

29. For Ron, and anyone else who thinks Trump will be escorted form the White House…

    >> A lot of people, including Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee, have mis­conceived the nature of the threat. They frame it as a concern, unthinkable for presidents past, that Trump might refuse to vacate the Oval Office if he loses. They generally conclude, as Biden has, that in that event the proper authorities “will escort him from the White House with great dispatch.”

    The worst case, however, is not that Trump rejects the election outcome. The worst case is that he uses his power to prevent a decisive outcome against him. If Trump sheds all restraint, and if his Republican allies play the parts he assigns them, he could obstruct the emergence of a legally unambiguous victory for Biden in the Electoral College and then in Congress. He could prevent the formation of consensus about whether there is any outcome at all. He could seize on that un­certainty to hold on to power. <<

    I don't like the sound of this worst case…

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

    1. Yes, and this article paints a picture of another path towards a chaotic situation-
       https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/26/us/black-white-militias-violence-blake/index.html

       On a slightly different tack-
       Imagine having to walk down the sidewalk to your polling place flanked on both sides by a line of skinhead nazi kkk ‘patriots’ carrying weapon from machete to AK-47’s. Entirely legal in most states.
       And you are Muslim or Jewish, Latino or Asian, Sioux or Sikh, Black or any of a hundred shades of Brown, mixed race or sexually ambiguous, a Beatnik or an ‘Intellectual’, or any of the other many shades of America. Yes, you are among the majority, and you come to vote without arms or a militia to back you up.
       And your state attorney general and legislature (Republicans) has banned or limited mail in balloting (like the state with the second largest number of electoral college vote-Texas), and therefore to vote you must pass through this gantlet.

       Is this a part of a functional democracy, or a country running fast toward a fascist authoritarian future?

       1. The situation is worsening everywhere, but USA doesn’t look good at all for the moment… Elections are bringing a lot of troubles

    2. From the article:

       The Twentieth Amendment is crystal clear that the president’s term in office “shall end” at noon on January 20, but two men could show up to be sworn in. One of them would arrive with all the tools and power of the presidency already in hand.

       Here’s Section 3 of Amendment XX:

       If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

       If the election is still contested by January 20th at noon, Congress appoints an interim president. Trump’s opinion on the matter has no bearing at that point, other than to attempt to influence congress as a private, albeit influential, citizen.

       1. Before we get to that point, we have this probable delay in vote result announcement-
          Mail in ballots results won’t be available right away
          https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina-likely-wont-be-called-on-election-night/

          -btw this is agood website for election related news
          538
          https://fivethirtyeight.com/

          1. I forecast a mid count court challenge to stop the count. The earlier it’s stopped the better Trumps lead, as its likely that more Trump supporters will vote in person on Election Day, and Biden supporters will use mail.

             1. That is what Trump is hoping, but has had to backtrack and ask his supporters in FL to use mail.

                but the Republicans are definitely planning to pack to supreme court and then use it to overturn the election, a repeat of 2000.

                https://www.salon.com/2020/09/25/lindsey-graham-we-need-a-ninth-supreme-court-justice-because-thecourts-will-decide-the-election/

                1. I feel very strongly that Trump will lose the popular vote, again, if it’s ever counted in it’s entirety. But his strategy is most certainly to delegitimize mail in ballots with his stupid shit posting, and then to call on the courts for a mid count stop while he’s still ahead. Trump will likely be ahead after election night 1, but after a day of two of reversals, as the mail in votes are counted, he’ll fire up the yokels on Facey and get the lawyers to petition the courts.
                   Florida is a good example of an exception to this strategies success. I wonder if it’ll matter, or become an issue elsewhere.

             2. ” The earlier it’s stopped the better ”
                Say what? You don’t believe in voting and democracy
                Theocracy, or what?

                1. Green anarchist here, so, no voting in that context for me.

                   “You don’t believe in voting and democracy…” ~ Hickory

                   “The measure of the state’s success is that the word anarchy frightens people, while the word state does not.” ~ Joseph Sobran

                   “Democracy consists of choosing your dictators, after they’ve told you what you think it is you want to hear.” ~ Alan Coren

                   “The oppressed are allowed once every few years to decide which particular representatives of the oppressing class are to represent and repress them.” ~ Karl Marx

                   “The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself… Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable…” ~ H.L. Mencken
                   

                   Many indeed seem astoundingly unable to think things out for themselves.

                2. “If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal.”
                   – Emma Goldman

                   We get to chose what capitalist we want.
                   Minor differences, but all the main stuff is the same.
                   (That Sobran quote is a classic, and new to me)

                3. Hightrekker. I’m a fan of Emma, but couldn’t disagree with that sentiment more strongly when it comes to many important issues. sure maybe they both talk down communism, but the similarities get slim after that.
                   Just think of the difference it will make when Elizabeth Warren replaces Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader in January.
                   If you are a minority, a women, a person who gives a shit about environmental issues, freedom from religion, right to vote- you know there is a huge difference. The list of major differences is huge.

                4. Go down a level, there are differences.
                   But both support a simple economic system that needs to expand to exist, and only because it is in end times for that system, you could have Trump as “leader”.
                   The Dims are simply a slower death (maybe slower).
                   We have 7.8 billion people in a collapsing ecosystem that has an economic model that needs to expand to exist.
                   Anyone see a problem?
                   Maybe we should look at user value and exchange value a bit closer?

                5. Philosophically interesting, but in the here and now a choice has to be made.

                   Neither party has a plan for rapid ‘degrowth’ or a system that does not rely on economic growth to keep up with population growth, or address the peak in population coming in the second half of this century. And any political party who championed that message would get maybe 1,221 votes nationwide.

                6. We have a global social-governmental-economic system that is consuming itself into extinction.

                   Putting any solution to this on hold assures our “collapse”.
                   but in the here and now a choice has to be made

                   Probably getting back to our historical population of 1-10 million might work–
                   (However, we had intact ecosystems then, but a near extinction happened 65 million years ago)

                7. “…in the here and now a choice has to be made.” ~ Hickory

                   Pretty vague. What ‘choice’? If one views the world and their possible choices and actions through a State lens and via the State, respectively, I suppose they will be necessarily limited.

                   As for choices, another to echo my own intellectual and practical response (‘Permaea’) keeps popping up in my forays, namely those advocating decentralization and peer-to-peer networks/networking based on nature, ethics and equity.

                   There are so many groups and individuals out there interested in that and I see increasing evidence that they are beginning to buttonhole themselves, which seems key. Ethics/Ecology-based solidarity and association, including trade.

                   ‘Failed state’ for the most part and as currently understood is practically a tautology.

                8. You quoted Emma Goldman.
                   You can bet your last dollar she would see a world of difference between the choices we have today. A huge world.

                9. Not so sure.
                   I was with UC studying Goldman’s views–
                   which doesn’t mean I’m correct, but probably better informed.

                10. The Sobran quote, like many, has a certain ‘efficiency’ that I find attractive.

                11. agree—

                12. Hick, you finished too soon.
                    (that’s what she said)
                    Try the whole sentence; premise, conclusion and rationale.

                    “The earlier it’s stopped the better Trumps lead, as its likely that more Trump supporters will vote in person on Election Day, and Biden supporters will use mail.”

                13. Gotcha survivalist. Glad i misinterpreted.
                    [And I was just teasing the girls- they always want more , and more. Or so i remember from more youthful times].

30. WARNING: those who have a problem with reality should ignore this. 😉

    TWO-HEADED BEAST: CHINA’S COAL ADDICTION ERODES CLIMATE GOALS

    “Fossil fuels have powered China’s economic surge over the last thirty years, and the nation burns about half the coal used globally each year. Between 2000 and 2018, its annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for nearly a third of the world’s total greenhouse gases linked to global warming. In the first half of 2020 China approved 23 gigawatts-worth of new coal power projects, more than the previous two years combined, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a San Francisco-based environmental NGO….

    The world’s second largest economy is also positioning itself as the global leader in renewables. It is already the top global producer and consumer of wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles, and Chinese factories make two-thirds of all solar cells installed used worldwide. China’s energy policy is like a two-headed beast, with each head trying to run in the opposite direction. But the new coal surge is running renewables out of the market because China’s energy distribution system uses Soviet-style quotas, where power suppliers are allocated a monthly supply limit…

    Meanwhile, overseas Belt and Road investments will festoon developing nations from Pakistan to Zimbabwe with new coal power stations. Our energy policy needs a serious overhaul—a surgery—because the growth in renewables has hit a glass ceiling. But reforms have stalled for nearly a decade, because the coal lobby is too powerful.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-two-headed-beast-china-coal-addiction.html

    1. Australia should be pleased.

       CHINA’S DEMAND FOR COAL AND IRON ORE SURGES DESPITE RISING ANIMOSITY WITH AUSTRALIA

       “China’s surging demand for iron ore and coal worldwide has boosted Australian exports despite the rising animosity between the two countries. The surge illustrates a two-track trade relationship developing between the economies: imports critical to China’s infrastructure stimulus are climbing while trade bans are imposed on beef, barley and education, which can be sourced from elsewhere. Iron ore imports into China grew by 10 per cent over the first half of the year, coal by 13 per cent and LNG by 3 per cent. Tuesday’s data from China’s customs department does not breakdown commodity imports by country but Australia accounts for more than 30 per cent of its coal imports.”

       https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-s-demand-for-australian-coal-and-iron-ore-surges-despite-rising-animosity-20200714-p55bxh.html

    2. China is also shutting down coal plants. A lot of the new plants are replacements for existing plants.

       https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-coal-power-idUSKBN1WF05O

       Capacity will probably keep growing for a while though. The price of renewables keeps falling, so these plants, old and new, are becoming less and less viable.

       1. Perhaps but,

          Many of these [coal] plants will naturally retire before 2060. But in the short term, China is still moving full steam ahead on coal—its post-Covid stimulus spending on fossil fuels is three times larger than its spending on clean energy, including nearly $25 billion on coal power plants and even more on mining and processing. Plants rolling out today, plus the hundreds planned for the years before 2030, may be forced to close ahead of schedule—the new target was short on details but more could be forthcoming in the next country’s next five-year plan.

          https://qz.com/1908502/why-chinas-coal-power-plants-are-such-a-big-climate-obstacle/

    3. Doug , don’t panic . The OBOR project is stalled . The primary concern for the CCP are
       1. Retain power .
       2. Feed the Chinese people .
       3. Strengthen the health care system for any future viruses .
       Of the OBOR project only the CPEC ( China Pakistan Economic Corridor) will be completed . Why ? Most of it is complete ,but most important it will connect to the Iranian oil and gas pipeline system . So from Chabar in Iran in parallel to the Karakorum highway pipelines to Xinjiang . Secure energy supplies. Pakistan is a vassal of china . China and Iran have already signed a 25 year agreement in several fields including defense and energy . All other extensions of the OBOR are stalled at least for the moment . Yes , the Chinese will loose their investments ,but they already were aware that they would never get this money back . What it was used was to buy votes and influence in the international bodies like UN , WTO,WHO ,APEC etc and we can see the success .
       They are now having to face asymmetrical warfare with the Huawei and Tik tok arrows fired by DT plus a push back from the world . However , this is nothing but a speed breaker . The Achilles heel of China is that it is plugged into the dollar trading system . It is working ( along with Russia ) to have a solution to this monopoly , but until then they have to tread with light toes . No ,there will be no coal powered power plants as you envisage , at least for the immediate future .

       1. “The Achilles heel of China is that it is plugged into the dollar trading system. It is working (along with Russia) to have a solution to this monopoly, but until then they have to tread with light toes.”

          I agree.

          “No, there will be no coal powered power plants as you envisage, at least for the immediate future.”

          I don’t agree.

          See my comment below.

          1. Doug ,
             1. What I meant was new power plants along the OBOR , I did not say there will be no new power plants in China .
             2 . As to China , the virus has repositioned the issue of environment in China . The locals are no longer going to tolerate poisoning of their air ,water and land . I presume that even Beijing has learnt its lesson , but then some people never learn or do they ?

             1. Perhaps you know better than I, however, I remain in touch with a number engineers living in different parts of China and based on their comments doubt I’m far off the mark with my comments. Most people’s lives there have seen dramatic improvements over the last two decades. Education is free and excellent so there is not too much negative feeling about the direction the country is going, from my narrow perspective.

                BTW a then young girl who was my primary interpreter while I was working in China has gone on to establish a language school and has students from all over the world.

                1. Doug , you are correct that the Chinese economic growth is a miracle and has pulled the largest number of human beings out of abject poverty . My exposure to China goes back to 1990 when Deng started the opening and have contacts there basically in the automotive parts manufacturing industries . I am in touch with them and I relay what they inform me . At the same time understand that the virus has changed mentality . At a certain stage of the industrial revolution London was unlivable and people were leaving the city ,luckily oil replaced coal and saved the day . Read Charles Dickens and you will know how terrible and dreary London was . The Chinese had already suffered from SARs ,H1N1, bird flu and swine flu . Covid was the nail in the coffin .

31. Climate Policy and the American Voter-
    72% support change in policy-
    “In a poll conducted this month by VICE News, The Guardian, George Mason University, and Yale Climate Connection, an overwhelming majority of American voters said they want the federal government to support efforts to address global heating in a meaningful way. That includes a carbon tax on big polluters and joining with other nations to implement the Paris climate accords. They told the pollsters they want whoever is America’s next president to make addressing climate change a top priority”
    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/27/overwhelming-number-of-us-voters-support-climate-action/

    Each vote counts… or should be counted in a democracy.

    1. Effective political advertising can squash that number down into something more containable. The Green New Deal got neutered real good once the ads connecting it to AOC & a high tax socialist agenda started rolling. ?

       1. “Effective political advertising can squash”… democracy.
          What you call political advertising I call brainwashing a weak minded electorate.
          And what you get is an idiot for president.

32. Alimbiquated —

    I spent almost seven years as a scout for a Texas based oil company seeking resource investment opportunities (mainly mineral and oil) in China; never had any experience with coal nor was I ever allowed near uranium mines or uranium prospects.

    China is a complex country and I certainly do not claim to be an expert but one thing I learned is that the Provinces pretty much go their own way — ignoring Beijing. Perhaps there is an analogy to be made with California in the U.S., a state that has pioneered environmentally sound laws, notwithstanding dictates from outside the state. My point is: if the Chinese Provinces decide to charge ahead with coal plants that is exactly what they will do. A lot of announcements and projections coming out of Beijing are political and will be ignored.

    1. Doug , you are correct and incorrect . For minor projects that might be an environment negative or even might not make financial logic as far it provides jobs Beijing will turn a blind eye , but for a power plant ,no sir , the local communist party leader can only do that if he is ready to face the firing squad from Beijing . Minor issues Beijing will overlook ,major issues the local leader must kowtow to Beijing or loose his head .

       1. Based on my experience in China I strongly disagree. Every project I was involved with in China had a representative from the Central Government. A small bribe (paid by my bosses) made this person turn silent. Beijing has no real power over the provinces — in my experience.

          BTW A couple of the projects I was involved with were “world class” oil joint ventures. Same deal, larger bribe. Beijing never once interfered in any way once the required bribes were paid.

          1. Doug,

             My reading about China supports your argument: provincial governments are building coal plants against the wishes of the central government.

             But…most of those coal plants aren’t needed, and are being built to generate employment. As coal capacity rises but generation doesn’t, capacity factors fall and more and more capacity is simply a white elephant. Eventually it will be clear that they are stranded assets.

             1. Let’s hope so!

33. Small electric cargo delivery continues to gain traction-
    https://electrek.co/2020/09/27/these-electric-cargo-bikes-are-already-replacing-trucks-in-cities/

    Report from a Tesla 3 owner at 100K miles-
    Total cost operating $4,732 (electricity $2,985/ maintenance-service $1,741)
    Roughly 5% battery degradation over 2 years and 100,000 miles.
    https://electrek.co/2020/09/26/tesla-model-3-high-mileage-extreme-low-cost-minimal-battery-degradation/

    note- Consider a comparable gasoline car getting 33 mpg. Thats 3,030 gallons, @ 2.50/gallon = $7,575 for fuel vs $2,985 for the Tesla 3. Put that in your pocket.

    Daimler unveils electric bus with 441 kWh solid-state battery pack
    https://electrek.co/2020/09/25/daimler-electric-bus-citaro-solid-state-battery-pack/

34. On Plandemics and Denial

    “So where’s the freedom? You’re free from being tagged & watched as long as you stay between the lines power has laid down as acceptable – go to our schools & follow our rules & we will allow you to drive a car, consume approved goods (alcohol & cigarettes OK, weed & Cocaine NO WAY). If you are born in the right class & posses enough intelligence & discipline you can choose among a variety of better paying employment & status options. You can vote, but not/never commie or socialist/never against the interests of BAU & Power…

    I’m with [George] Carlin in that what people call freedoms & rights are just temporary privileges. I lmao at the American denier conspiracy crew because they were not just silent on what is probably the biggest plebs freedom losing piece of legislation in their country’s history, ‘Citizens United’, but many of them even supported it, which is kinda like a black slave 300 years ago cheering on the forging of his chains. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) & The Patriot Act are two other freedom stealing pieces of legislation they were also all but silent on or supported. These were all enacted in the 21st century, but were on the drawing board in the 20th.”

35. Breaking news, and it’s a BOMB this time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/sep/27/donald-trump-amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-debate-joe-biden-latest-updates

    I don’t have a subscription to the NYT, but the highlights are in this link.

    Not that it will matter much if at all to trump’s core voters, lol.

    1. He paid no taxes in 10 of the last 15 years. He owes 415 million dollars. He has had chronic losses and years of tax avoidance. He calls it fake news but that dog won’t hunt this time. All he has to do to prove fake news is to show his tax returns. Of course, if he did that it would just show what a liar he is.

       No, this news will not sway any of his base but it may sway a lot of people who had not yet made up their mind.

       Trump wants to keep his ego inflated by equating his net personal worth with his personal worth as a super-rich financial genus. But he has a negative net worth to the tune of $425 billion. And that about sums up his personal status. That is way below zero.

       1. The Trump financial malfeasance is monumental,
          but lets keep in mind it is a pinhead compared to thousand loads of elephant manure that symbolizes how poorly he did as ‘war-time’ president managing this Covid pandemic.
          Epic failure of leadership, and the resultant damage to the economy is much worse than it could have been with half competent leadership at the top.
          If he cared even a tiny amount for medical and other essential service workers, he would have jumped on a the mask mandate in march. Still doesn’t get it even now. I know 7 year olds who do.

          btw- kudos to Ron for being much earlier than other visitors here, and most of the country, at calling out the danger of this pandemic when it was still a problem in China only.

       2. So what.

          Trump staying or going isn’t going to make much of a difference, except I guess to make it appear as such for some, like some kind of corporate-mediated sociopolitical acid trip.

          It’s apparently quite common for corporations and rich groups and individuals to dodge taxes– legal loopholes, tax havens and all that– which only underscores one of too many questionables with your dystopia.

          In any event, a small-scale, close-knit tribal species doesn’t belong in a State that’s out of scale such as with Dunbar’s number or how much energy it uses (even from pseudorenewables), say, relative to other species.
          It’s collective cognitive dissonance and uncontrol writ large.

          “btw- kudos to Ron for being much earlier than other visitors here, and most of the country, at calling out the danger of this pandemic when it was still a problem in China only.” ~ Hickory

          Here’s some virtual confetti to shower Ron with too…
          It seemed fairly clear early on that there was a skew toward the older segment of the population, despite the projections apparently being significantly overestimated. This, along with the legacy mainstream media’s viral agitprop/FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), may have been what played into what some sarcastically called the Panic in place of Pandemic. It’s also possible that Ron or others in a similar boat got swept up in some of that and, to boot, being ~82 years old, he was/is well within the pandemic’s skew.

       3. Hi Ron,
          I said “not much if any ” up thread about trump’s taxes and his voters but there are quite a few people in the places that matter who didn’t vote for trump so much as they voted AGAINST HRC, believing that she was just another politician who didn’t really care about them.

          They voted for trump because they wanted CHANGE, and he was able to successfully sell them on that piece of propaganda. They got change all right, and some of them love it, but it’s pretty close to a dead sure thing that ENOUGH 2016 trump voters in the Rust Belt swing states are going to vote D or stay home to put the Rust Belt states in the D column, and Biden in the WH.

          Check out this video about the middle. It makes my point about the working classes feeling abandoned by HRC, and voting for trump out of frustration and an overwhelming desire for change.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0D-712bKgI

          A winning coach never blames his losses on the opposition, so long as he’s in the right league, lol. High school teams don’t beat college teams, and college teams don’t beat pro teams.

          HRC was in the right league , but she managed against the odds to snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory by making secret speeches to wall streeters when she should have been campaigning in the working class communities, the industrial blue collar traditional CORE of the D coalition.

          I placed a few friendly bets on her winning and giving three to one odds.

          But she felt safe ignoring the peasants, expecting them to bend the knee and tug the forelock without even pretending to notice their existence when the chips were down.

          Even a dog knows when you’re not it’s friend, given a little practical experience with you.
          Trump won in large part because the voters didn’t know him.

          I agree that he’s toast this time around.

          1. OFM ,there is a difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance . Trump did not evade taxes as he declared all his sources of income . Yes ,he did tax avoidance but then that is legal . That is what the CPA and the lawyers are paid for . Biden on the other hand has misused his position in Ukrainegate and Chinagate for the benefit of Hunter Biden . In a legal case like this, Biden would be behind bars . Anyway for me it is immaterial as I do not live nor vote in the US elections . Looking forward to today’s debate (not possible to see it real time because of time zone ) but my bet is that Biden is going to have a breakdown, watching how Trump unsettled HRC with his behavior and comments .Both of us know that HRC has a skin thicker than an alligator so Biden will be short change .

             1. While there is a difference between tax avoidance and evasion, how is it that you have access to definitive information that he’s exclusively practiced one and not the other?

                1. It is 48 hrs since the revelation and not even his worst attackers like Pelosi or Schumer have made any noise or fury about it. It was published in NYT but not even WaPo has done anything and not even WSJ . They know it is a nothing burger on the financial front because if it went to court it would get thrown out . All they can do is to squeeze it for some political mileage, but seems it is not gaining any traction . If it was tax evasion it would have been ” hell hath no fury” .

                2. Foreign (hole in head) interference in an election.

                3. Hickory, next what ? I gave RBG cancer .:-) or manipulated Wall Street . Don’t take me seriously .

                4. You shouldn’t respond to hole in head. Though very likely a real Belgian, he is, for whatever reason, certainly attempting to feed this forum with a specific narrative about the US that is remarkably similar to what you can read in Russia Today or Sputnik. His “I don’t care” is just guff. If you want to hear more of it, go to the source. Responding to him just gives him an excuse to hijack the conversation with more of his material.

                   She (or they, but I don’t think so) is one of several sources in this forum who are consistently negative about America’s prospects and offer no ideas to improve the situation. It’s not like there is a conversation going on, or anyone is learning anything.

                   Another thing they have in common is that they back Trump (even while pretending not to), who is clearly a threat to American democracy and America’s leadership position in world affairs.

                5. Agree.

                6. The Russians are propagating the idea that it’s OK that Trump didn’t pay taxes. One of their sites got busted recently.

                   https://news.yahoo.com/wing-trumpist-news-busted-putin-132724682.html

                   The Website’s name? “Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens”

                   you really gotta start wondering why a Belgian with no particualr interest in American politics suddenly becomes an expert on tax law and types long texts about the legality or Trump’s tax schemes. I mean, how does he even know what Trump was up to in detail?

                7. Well, the story isn’t over. NYTimes possession of the documents is exclusive at this point, and they’ve promised further more detailed reporting as they evaluate the specifics of the filings.

                   That the story has dropped quickly from outlets like Fox, Breitbart, Washington Examiner, Washington Times, The American Conservative, The American Spectator et cetera, tells us something, but I don’t think it’s that this story has no basis of fact or absence of relevance.

                   The silo nature of the feeds that we now have available to inform or misinform us, in my opinion, is a big part of the polarization of opinion problem. We are all experiencing different ‘realities’.

                   I’m non-partisan, leaning heavily to green, and I try to sample a broad spectrum of opinion, sampling those outlets listed above and others for views from the right, and reading NYTimes, Wapo, LA Times, Guardian, BBC, The Atlantic, New Yorker et cetera for left-ish views and LeMonde, ElPais, and AlJazeera for more international news. I don’t watch news, only read it. I don’t feel particularly well informed. It’s easy for me to identify which sources resonate with my biases and which ones are dissonant to the point of intolerable, but difficult for me to feel confident that any of them present an unbiased view of the facts.

                   So questions for the readers here: what are your preferred sources of information? Who do you trust, and why? Can anyone recommend sources that focus on policy and not politics?

                8. It is 48 hrs since the revelation and not even his worst attackers like Pelosi or Schumer have made any noise or fury about it.

                   Good gravy! It is obvious you do not live in the USA. Everyone, including Pelosi and Schumer, has been talking about nothing else. On the all-news stations like CNN and MSNBC, they have been talking about almost nothing else.

                   HH, you post a lot of bullshit but that post is the furthest from the truth you have ever posted. I have been watching all news TV since Sunday night. The Trump Tax Scandle has been on every hour for at 30 to 45 minutes of every hour. The coming debate and Trump’s bungling of the Corona Virus pandemic occupied the rest.

                   Gad, man, where on earth do you get your information?

                9. “…where on earth do you get your information?” ~ Ron Patterson

                   I’ve asked Ron that before.

                10. Ron, I expected this to be your response so not surprised . First I have always given the disclaimer that I am not a resident of USA so my viewpoint is unbiased as I have no skin in the game . Regarding TV news CNN , MSNBC ,Racheal Meadows , Wolf Blitzer (no Glenn Beck , Sean Hannity are no better) are crap . Look at their track record “Russiagate ” “Mueller”Impeachment ” “peaceful protests of BLM ” and I recall the favorite punchline “the walls are closing on Trump “. All shills . So if the channels are playing this is not surprising . You are US centric , I my dear friend am seeing this happening in my land of birth India and in Belgium where I am currently located . The MSM has gone not nuts, but insane . So my counter question to you is “where do you get my information “? I get it from sources independent of MSM . I am have no facebook , twitter or any social media account because I abhor them but thanks heaven their is the internet where independent commentators can still post their views like Chris Hedges , Dr Richard Wolff , Dr Mike Hudson , Guy McPherson ,Paul Beckwith etc which are without bias .

                11. “where do you get my information “? I get it from sources independent of MSM .

                    Well hell, that explains it doesn’t it. You said no one was making any noise about it, that it was a nothing burger. Yet mainstream media has been screaming about almost nothing else. Geeze, your logic is a little strange, or I should say your lack of logic is strange.

                12. Ron, I have also explained how useless the MSM . Do not cherry pick .

                13. Ron, I have also explained how useless the MSM . Do not cherry pick .

                    Are you shitting me? The New York Times broke the story. They are part of MSM. All newspapers, all magazines, all radio, all television are mainstream media. Facebook, Twitter, blogs like this one are not mainstream media. People, like you and other Trumpites, post bullshit on Facebook, Twitter and blogs. That’s where you get your info? Then you are cherry-picking.

                    Using all mainstream media is not cherry-picking. That is the only place to get news. More stupid logic from you HH.

                14. “Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media.” ~ Noam Chomsky

                    “The indoctrination that’s done by tv and so on, is not trying to pile up evidence and give arguments and so on, it’s to inculcate attitudes… There are a lot of measures of how effective this is…” ~ Noam Chomsky

                    “Conventional news reporters tend to downplay police crimes because the police are important sources for news stories.” ~ Jan Lundberg

                    “Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.” ~ Noam Chomsky

                    “Everytime I look at the news, I listen to it, I see its absurdity…” ~ Russell Brand

                    “That [‘the mainstream media’] is the only place to get news.” ~ Ron Patterson

                    No it’s not.
                    But it’s a good place to get absurdity.

                15. Hole in head,

                    Nobody is without bias.

             2. h in head- you speak bullshit , uncomposted bullshit.
                I call it foreign meddling in an election- [Ron and Dennis- you guys mind that?]
                Your ‘analysis’ would make Goebbels grin.
                Intentional or brainwashed?

                Tax Fraud-‘Tax fraud is a deliberate attempt to evade taxes or to defraud the IRS. Tax fraud takes place when a person or company willfully does one of the following: Intentionally fails to pay taxes owed. Willfully fails to file a federal income tax return. Fails to report all income.’

                Payments to prostitutes for abortions (was it 7 or 11) for your unwanted offspring are not qualified as tax writeoffs. It is fraudulent.

                And your claims about Biden are baseless. Even the republicans in congress could not a shred of evidence to substantiate any of the Giuliani conspiracy claims.
                You are smart enough to know that.

                1. Hickory ,”Tax Fraud-‘Tax fraud is a deliberate attempt to evade taxes or to defraud the IRS. Tax fraud takes place when a person or company willfully does one of the following: Intentionally fails to pay taxes owed. Willfully fails to file a federal income tax return. Fails to report all income.’. This is your definition . So tell me where did DT fail on the three points .
                   1. He filed all his tax returns in all countries where it was applicable .
                   2. He disclosed all his income in all countries where applicable .
                   3 . He paid taxes if they were due .If no taxes are due then you don’t pay them . He has paid income tax in countries other than the US where he had taxable income . In India he paid $750. Yes, it is measly but the tax department there has no problem .They accepted his tax return . Taking advantage of tax loopholes is not tax evasion. Corporations do it all the time .As Shallow sand has pointed out there is no difference between Trump and the shale patch . Both show NOL (Non operating losses) .
                   As to prostitutes and abortions ,I do not know about them but if he took a write off all the IRS can do is disallow the expense and tax him for that . All disallowed expenses or write offs can only be written back and taxed, maybe in some cases with penalty . I have filed tax returns in 4 countries in my working lifetime and this is universal practice .
                   As to Biden, the just out DOJ report out has pointed out to impropriety and misuse of power(authority)to benefit Hunter Biden . Biden himself in a press conference has said how he got the AG in Ukraine who was investigating Burisma (Hunter) fired . If you want I can post the video or you can see it for yourself on You tube .
                   I am in no way justifying either Trump or Biden . Reminds me off what George Galloway British MP said about the Reps and the Dems when he was called to Washington regarding the Iraq war ” Cheeks of the same bottom”.:-). By the way he says the same for the Tory party and Labour party in UK .

                2. h in h the more you speak the you discredit yourself.
                   Of course Trumps fraud is deliberate.
                   Get real or get lost.

                3. I call it foreign meddling in an election- [Ron and Dennis- you guys mind that?]

                   Nah, I love it. But his meddling is so obviously bullshit that it will have little effect. I wish Russian meddling was as stupid and inept.

                4. Ron, I am enjoying it .:-) Mcdonalds ad here in Belgium

             3. Biden on the other hand has misused his position in Ukrainegate and Chinagate for the benefit of Hunter Biden. In a legal case like this, Biden would be behind bars.

                Bullshit! You just rattle off shit without any evidence as to what you are talking about.

                Hunter and Joe Biden did nothing illegal or unethical with Ukraine, says Dem Sen. Chris Murphy By Nick Givas | Fox News

                2020 presidential hopeful Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, did nothing unethical or illegal with regard to their ties to Ukraine, and are being used as a distraction by President Trump and the GOP, said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., during a Sunday television interview.

                Murphy appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union,” where host Jake Tapper asked if it was appropriate for Hunter Biden to have served as a board member for the Ukranian energy company, Burisma Holdings, which paid him $50,000 a month while his father was vice president.

                “Well, I think in an interview Hunter Biden, himself, admitted that he had possibly made a mistake,” Murphy replied. “But let’s be clear, Hunter Biden didn’t do anything illegal and his father, the vice president, didn’t do anything illegal or unethical.

                “And all of these attacks on the Bidens and the effort to bring the whistleblower in to testify are just an attempt to try to put more chum in the water and distract from the corrupt scheme that is at heart of this inquiry.”

                We have a criminal mob boss in the White House and you Trumpites just make up shit on Biden that have no basis in fact. But I can’t blame you, I might do the same if I worshipped such a low life bag of shit like Donald Trump. I know you do not live in the USA but you are still a Trumpite, else you wouldn’t post such bullshit attacking Biden.

                1. Ron, what else is Mr Murphy to say ? Read it here ,this is going in for investigation . I do not make the news ,only report it .
                   https://news.yahoo.com/rand-paul-says-senate-panel-122100632.html

36. Dan Carlin claims to have voted for Bill Clinton in 92, and has been voting 3rd party ever since. This year he’s voting for Biden. He makes an entertaining case that Trumpsters and Qtards should perhaps consider.

    Common Sense 320 – Steering Into the Iceberg
    https://www.dancarlin.com/product/common-sense-320-steering-into-the-iceberg/

37. EV cars and utility scale energy storage batteries are not likely to materialize

    “Clearly there’s not enough minerals and metals to shift from fossil fuels to electric vehicles and utility scale battery storage, due to peak critical elements, peak platinum group elements, peak precious elements, peak rare earth elements, and peak everything else.

    The whole mineral game is over once oil declines, except perhaps for some recycling, since all minerals and metals use oil to mine, crush, smelt, fabricate, and deliver the products made from them.

    Even now, only the top 5% can afford electric vehicles. The third and last article explains why battery prices fell one-time only and are likely to rise again, putting EV out of reach for perhaps all but the 1% some day.”

    1. Nonsence, if Earth can support 10 billion people surely we can scrap enough rare metal off her surface to put batteries in a couple of billion cars and “battrify” all the houses. We can also mine Mars. There’s no limit, just role out the rockets man. 😉

       1. Ahh where’s my imagination? Thanks Doug! ‘u^

38. Now we know why Trump abandoned the Kurds is Syria. It was a favor to Erdogan, president of Turkey. Or it was a threat from Erdogan. He made the call to pull out right after he got off the phone from Erdogan.

    Will the New York Times taxes report sink Donald Trump?

    In his first two years as president, Trump received $73m from foreign operations, including $3m from the Philippines, $2.3m from India and $1m from Turkey. In 2017 he paid $145,400 in taxes in India and $156,824 in the Philippines – but just $750 in the US.

    The president has been notoriously outspoken in his praise for the leaders of the Philippines, India and Turkey.

    Does Trump’s substantial income from abroad conflict with his responsibilities as president? Did he put his personal interest ahead of the American people? Did he break the law?

    The Times has promised more stories to come. They won’t shake the Trump faithful, but they might chip away at enough voters to make an important difference.

39. Wingnuts freaking out?
    Former Trump campaign manager taken to hospital after reported suicide attempt, police say

    https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Former-Trump-campaign-manager-taken-to-hospital-15601810.php

40. There’s a historic insurrection against Donald Trump happening within the GOP-
    “former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge penned an op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer making clear his intent to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump in November.-
    “He lacks the empathy, integrity, intellect and maturity to lead,” Ridge, who also served as the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in the Bush administration, wrote of Trump.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/tom-ridge-colin-powell-biden-christine-todd-whitman/index.html

    1. Too bad his base won’t hear anything about this in their walled gardens of information. Only the ‘fake news’ will cover it.

41. You can not commit massive tax fraud and be considered patriotic.
    Taxes are what pays for the nations defense, law and order, childhood education and the well being the elderly, for example.
    Paying your fair share is patriotic, and more importantly just being a good citizen.
    Trump- bad citizen-in-chief

    As an aside, don’t forget that he has paid a lineup of whores to abort his unwanted responsibility.
    Wonder if he wrote off that bill as well- which means you paid for it in your taxes.

    1. “Patriotism is, as we know, the last refuge of a scoundrel. Now we’re talking about real scoundrels, like Nixon.” ~ Gore Vidal

       “I’m a fan of Emma… Taxes are what pays for…” ~ Hickory

       “The most absurd apology for authority and law is that they serve to diminish crime. Aside from the fact that the State is itself the greatest criminal, breaking every written and natural law, stealing in the form of taxes, killing in the form of war and capital punishment, it has come to an absolute standstill in coping with crime. It has failed utterly to destroy or even minimize the horrible scourge of its own creation.” ~ Emma Goldman

       You don’t have to steal from people to pay for things that you might propagandize that they supposedly need and make it ‘mandatory’ (in other words, by force or threats thereof).

       Of course, you also don’t have to have the same core values of someone who you might pretend you’re a fan of.

       If you’re arguing for taxes in some current setups, you’re arguing for theft, and it doesn’t matter the loftiness of the regimes you think the theft pays for. It’s still theft.

       I suspect Emma would agree.

       I also suspect that societies that have those sorts of things– tax theft and related unethical practices– already have decay, decline and/or collapse baked in and that it’s only a matter of time.

       One could even suggest that, whether they realize it or not, those arguing for the State with its unethical operations like tax-theft and related, like overseas military-industrial adventurism/interventionism/murder-aiding-and-abetting, is arguing for inevitable social decline/collapse— and not just at/for home.

       This sort of stuff should be taught early, like in State-run schools ;P so that it’s more common knowledge.

42. Oh well, so much for that theory.

    DESPITE HIGH HOPES, CARBON ABSORBED BY AMAZON FOREST RECOVERY IS DWARFED BY DEFORESTATION EMISSIONS

    “After calculating how much carbon had been lost through deforestation, the scientists discovered that, in more than 30 years, the regrowth of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon has offset less than 10 percent of emissions from the loss of old-growth forests…

    Deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon surpassed 10,000 km2 last year, and will almost certainly surpass that in 2020.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-high-carbon-absorbed-amazon-forest.html

    1. Meanwhile,

       THE ARCTIC IS BURNING IN A WHOLE NEW WAY

       The commentary identifies two new features of recent Arctic fires. The first is the prevalence of holdover fires, also called zombie fires. Fire from a previous growing season can smolder in carbon-rich peat underground over the winter, then re-ignite on the surface as soon as the weather warms in spring.

       The second feature is the new occurrence of fire in fire-resistant landscapes. As tundra in the far north becomes hotter and drier under the influence of a warmer climate, vegetation types not typically thought of as fuels are starting to catch fire: dwarf shrubs, sedges, grass, moss, even surface peats. Wet landscapes like bogs, fens, and marshes are also becoming vulnerable to burning.

       https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic.html

43. “Worse than predicted” file getting thicker.

    NEW STUDY SHOWS A VICIOUS CIRCLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE BUILDING ON THICKENING LAYERS OF WARM OCEAN WATER

    “Global warming is deepening blankets of warmer water that alter ocean currents, hinder absorption of carbon, intensify storms and disrupt biological cycles. The take-home point, here, is that once again we are learning that the uncertainties are not breaking in our favor. If anything, the impacts of climate change are proving to be worse than we predicted…

    That’s a double whammy. In the first case, that means that the oceans are less able to take up CO2 from the atmosphere, and so atmospheric CO2 builds up even faster. The ocean becomes less effective as a “carbon sink. In the second case, it means that the oceans hold less oxygen. That’s problematic for sea life that, like us, needs oxygen. It’s a threat to the food web, including fish.”

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092020/ocean-stratification-climate-change

44. I haven’t yet run across a good no bullshit summary of what the new Tesla batteries are all about.
    I take it that they represent a substantial incremental improvement in terms of cost and capacity per kilogram, maybe better than ten percent.

    A short reply from anybody who is paying close attention will be appreciated and thanks in advance.

    1. Spiegel International has a really good overall general information piece about it, although they don’t get too deep into the technical details of the new cell.

       https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/the-future-of-electric-tesla-joins-the-race-for-the-next-gen-battery-a-59a8af07-6a69-41d6-9760-39b0bf06efa9

       CleanTechnica has a more technical breakdown:

       https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/22/everything-you-need-to-know-about-teslas-new-4680-battery-cell/

       Munroe and Associates have a nice discussion about them, and other Tesla innovations.

       https://youtu.be/GkQga-mzO4Y

45. What is next ? Pee break ,coffee break . Biden is a nice guy but he is physically and mentally not fit to be POTUS . Not that Trump is better ,but just on physical and mental situation .
    https://summit.news/2020/09/29/report-biden-campaign-requested-debate-break-every-30-minutes/

    1. I’ve said this hereon recently, but to paraphrase; no one in their right mind seems fit to be President in that context (unless that prez wants to make some extreme changes, and possibly at great risk to their life).

    2. h in head- you got no credibility

    3. There’s obviously a very large extra hole someplace in Hole in Head’s head, which has allowed the trump camp’s propaganda to pour in like flood waters, and wash away whatever working brain cells he may have once possessed.

       I can’t remember Biden ever talking about airports a century or two previous to the invention of the air plane, or forced climate change being a hoax, or his family being prohibited from having anything to do with running a charity, or Biden being sued thousands of times for non payment of his debts, or a couple of dozen high level Obama / Biden administration officials being in jail or on their way to jail.
       I could go on a long time, but given that ALMOST every regular here is well aware of the relevant facts, there’s no need.

46. Debt: The First 5000 Years

    “Why did they make subjects pay taxes at all? This is not a question we’re used to asking. The answer seems self-evident. Governments demand taxes because they wish to get their hands on people’s money. But if Smith was right, and gold and silver became money through the natural workings of the market completely independently of governments, then wouldn’t the obvious thing be to just grab control of the gold and silver mines? Then the king would have all the money he could possibly need. In fact, this is what ancient kings would normally do. If there were gold and silver mines in their territory, they would usually take control of them. So what exactly was the point of extracting the gold, stamping one’s picture on it, causing it to circulate among one’s subjects—and then demanding that those same subjects give it back again?

    This does seem a bit of a puzzle. But if money and markets do not emerge spontaneously, it actually makes perfect sense. Because this is the simplest and most efficient way to bring markets into being. Let us take a hypothetical example. Say a king wishes to support a standing army of fifty thousand men. Under ancient or medieval conditions, feeding such a force was an enormous problem—unless they were on the march, one would need to employ almost as many men and animals just to locate, acquire, and transport the necessary provisions. On the other hand, if one simply hands out coins to the soldiers and then demands that every family in the kingdom was obliged to pay one of those coins back to you, one would, in one blow, turn one’s entire national economy into a vast machine for the provisioning of soldiers, since now every family, in order to get their hands on the coins, must find some way to contribute to the general effort to provide soldiers with things they want. Markets are brought into existence as a side effect.

    This is a bit of a cartoon version, but it is very clear that markets did spring up around ancient armies; one need only take a glance at Kautilya’s Arthasasatra, the Sassanian ‘circle of sovereignty’, or the Chinese ‘Discourses on Salt and Iron’ to discover that most ancient rulers spent a great deal of their time thinking about the relation between mines, soldiers, taxes, and food…

    …despite the dogged liberal assumption—again, coming from Smith’s legacy—that the existence of states and markets are somehow opposed, the historical record implies that exactly the opposite is the case. Stateless societies tend also to be without markets…

    …in the ancient world, free citizens didn’t usually pay taxes. Generally speaking, tribute was levied only on conquered populations. This was already true in ancient Mesopotamia, where the inhabitants of independent cities did not usually have to pay direct taxes at all. Similarly, as Moses Finley put it, 'Classical Greeks looked upon direct taxes as tyrannical and avoided them whenever possible. Athenian citizens did not pay direct taxes of any sort; though the city did sometimes distribute money to its citizens, a kind of reverse taxation—sometimes directly, as with the proceeds of the Laurium silver mines, and sometimes indirectly, as through generous fees for jury duty or attending the assembly. Subject cities, however, did have to pay tribute. Even within the Persian Empire, Persians did not have to pay tribute to the Great King, but the inhabitants of conquered provinces did. The same was true in Rome, where for a very long time, Roman citizens not only paid no taxes but had a right to a share of the tribute levied on others, in the form of the dole—the 'bread' part of the famous 'bread and circuses.' ” ~ David Graeber, ‘Debt: The First 5000 Years’

    1. Graeber is gone, a major loss.

       1. Yes.

47. ‘Everybody dies’: Musk says neither he nor his family will take Covid-19 vaccine, blasts Bill Gates as ‘knucklehead’

    “Elon Musk has said that neither he nor his family will likely take future coronavirus vaccines even when they are readily available, saying the pandemic has ‘diminished [his] faith in humanity’.

    Speaking during a podcast interview with Kara Swisher, 49-year-old Musk stated that neither he nor his children are at risk for Covid-19 and therefore would be unlikely to need the vaccine.

    ‘This is a no-win situation. It has diminished my faith in humanity, this whole thing… The irrationality of people in general’, Musk said.

    He also decried lockdowns across the globe and in the US in particular, having previously referred to them as ‘unethical’ and ‘de facto house arrest’.

    Musk said widespread lockdowns were a mistake and only at-risk people should quarantine ‘until the storm passes.’ “

48. Support for 2 way economic transactions will be required. Most Tesla Powerwalls are shipping to the 3 markets that allow Tesla Autobidder trials. Would you subscribe to internet service that you can only receive emails?
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/

49. Did you watch the debate? Did you watch the yelling and screaming? What was Trump’s stand on white supremacy? Well here it is in his own words.

    Chris Wallace: “Are you willing, tonight, to condemn white supremacists and militia groups and to say that they need to stand down…”

    Trump: “Proud Boys, stand back and stand by! But I’ll tell you what, somebody’s got to do something about antifa and the left.”

    Well, now you know. Stand by and be prepared to take up arms to keep Trump in power.

    Nuff said.

    1. Well said, Ron.

       The trump camp made a serious mistake in terms of winning the vote of anybody who hasn’t yet made up his or her mind by painting Biden as sick and senile.

       He’s obviously in as good or better health than trump.

       The large majority of trump voters are old and abysmally ignorant of almost everything involving junior high school level science or civics. The rest of them are mostly people with financial skin in the game who aren’t smart enough to understand that having a few million or lots of millions isn’t going to mean that their heirs have a decent country to live in.

    2. I’m an hour and 12 minutes into it and so far Trump has ‘stole the show’ and of course is in his medium to boot. No real contest. Biden seems to have a hard time even looking at who he’s debating with, if you want to call it a debate.

    3. Anarchists, Rejoice

       Trump-Biden debate put US democracy on display – we’re now little more than the world’s laughing stock armed with nukes

       “It wasn’t a debate as much as it was a petty airing of grievances by two men old enough to know better, but so vested in their own narcissistic belief that they alone hold the key to American peace and prosperity that they were blinded to the pathetic display in which they both equally partook.”

       1. False equivalency coming from Russia Times. Trump was a total joke.

          Trump had one job during the debate -he needed to show the American people that he was fully in charge and that everything going wrong in the country was about to turn around. Instead he came off as a white supremist that couldn’t shut the hell up.

          Biden also had one job during the debate. Trump and Fox News have been trying to convince Americans that Biden had dementia for months. They had viewers believing that Biden was going to walk out on stage, pee his pants, and then get escorted out in a wheel chair. -So all Biden had to do was to look like he had it together. He succeeded.

          1. Fuser ‘Splains A Page From The State Religion Bible To An Anarchist

             “So all Biden had to do was to look like he had it together.” ~ Fuser

             Hence the asinine pseudodebate. Thanks for the humor.

             What The Fuck
             “They know what is what
             But they don’t know what is what
             They just strut
             What the fuck…”

50. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/29/opinions/young-evangelicals-fight-climate-change-and-trump-meyaard-schaap/index.html

    Millions of Evangelicals’ fondest day to day real life dream is to see their kids graduate from college and join the middle class.

    Most of them are hard workers willing to live cheap and work long hours so as to help their kids do it.

    The youngest two generations of my own family fit this description to a t, with the old folks living out their lives in factories and on farms and construction jobs, but with most of the kids getting at least a technical education enabling them to make a decent living, such as can be had as a medical technician with an associate’s degree.

    And the farther they go in school, the farther their kids stray from the politics that prevailed in their childhood homes.

    Couple this with the fact that the women under about fifty or so ( of all the women of the extended family) seldom ever have three or more kids, and typically have only two, with one or none being FAR more likely than three. I can’t think of a single one with more than four, and only a couple with that many.

    THEIR DAUGHTERS aren’t making grand children at a replacement rates, or even approaching replacement rates. I can’t think of a mother in the extended family still of prime child bearing age with more than two kids.

    The Republican Party as we know it today is a dead man walking. The voting core that keeps it in power is rotting out, dying, just like the heart wood of an old tree.

    1. “The Republican Party as we know it today is a dead man walking. ” ~ OFM

       The whole system is fucked (and crawling, aimlessly dragging itself across the floor, drunk on its own self-deceptive conceit).

51. Islandboy, exciting news from Australia today. ?

    AUSTRALIA APPROVES MAJOR NEW FOSSIL FUEL PROJECTS

    “Australia has approved two major new fossil fuel projects that proponents in the climate change-vulnerable nation say will create badly needed jobs despite growing concerns over emissions. Authorities in New South Wales state on Wednesday announced conditional approval for a Aus$3.6 billion (US$2.6 billion) coal seam gas development that has generated widespread local opposition. Approval of the gas project came a day after Queensland’s government gave a final go ahead for the state’s third-largest coal mine, which officials say is expected to have an 80-year lifespan and employ 1,000 workers once operational.

    “With this approval, we risk becoming a fossil fuel pariah as the world transitions to renewable energies and countries strengthen their commitment to climate action.” — Greens parliamentarian Cate Faehrmann.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-australia-major-fossil-fuel.html

52. GREENLAND IS ON TRACK TO LOSE ICE FASTER THAN IN ANY CENTURY OVER 12,000 YEARS

    “Basically, we’ve altered our planet so much that the rates of ice sheet melt this century are on pace to be greater than anything we’ve seen under natural variability of the ice sheet over the past 12,000 years. We’ll blow that out of the water if we don’t make severe reductions to greenhouse gas emissions,” says Jason Briner, Ph.D., professor of geology in the University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences. Briner led the collaborative study, coordinating the work of scientists from multiple disciplines and institutions.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-09-greenland-track-ice-faster-century.html

    1. And, refusing to be left behind, down south we have…..

       WORSENING RIFTS AND FRACTURES SPOTTED AT TWO OF ANTARCTICA’S MOST IMPORTANT GLACIERS

       “Satellite imagery has revealed that two of the fastest-changing glaciers in Antarctica are fracturing and weakening faster than ever—the first step towards the glaciers disintegrating and causing sea levels to rise dramatically.”

       https://phys.org/news/2020-09-worsening-rifts-fractures-antarctica-important.html

       1. Doug, thanks for all your posts on the Arctic and Antarctic ice and also the fires in that region . Just a question , do you also follow Dr Paul Beckwith on these subjects ? I find his work real good . you can check out his videos on you tube . An excellent source . kudos .

          1. hole in head —

             No, I’ve not been following Dr Beckwith. Truthfully, my primary interest is astrophysics so anything I post here is an excursion, helping the kids express their climate change concerns, as it were.

             1. Beckwith is worth a listen if it arises.

          2. Doug’s news is all one sided, unfortunately.

             1. hey SBB,
                if you’ve got news of all the benefits of global warming, please share.
                I under Germany has benefited from Turkish cuisine, coming along with the migrants.
                Maybe good Moroccan goat stew coming to Estonia.

                1. There’s value in hearing all the bad news. But…any doctor will tell you that diagnosis of an illness is only a part of what they do: the more important part is developing and implementing a plan of treatment.

                2. When a person is hit by a train, pulled underneath, has parts of their limbs sliced as their body ping-pongs back and forth between the wheels, gets caught under the trucks and the lifeless corpse ground against the ties, there is no plan of treatment.

                   There is only an autopsy.

                3. Well, that was aggressively creepy.

                   So, if you’re feeling completely hopeless, why are you putting any effort into writing about this stuff?

                4. Because I’m not dead yet.
                   I write because it helps me deal with the facts. You don’t suspect there is no solution until you examine the alternatives, and you have to keep up with the data when the experiment is ongoing and the results are important to you.

                   Doug correctly points out that we are facing multiple uncontrollable and unalterable calamities. Unpleasant facts, but facts that are useful to me.

                   If you want to feel good, there are lots of “kitten playing with German Shepherd” videos on YouTube.

                5. So, how are the results useful to you? What will you do with them?

                   I suspect that you really have not given up and decided that all is hopeless, and that nothing can or should be done to deal with these calamities.

                   For instance, do you feel like we should do nothing about moving away from coal and other fossil fuels?

             2. “Doug’s news is all one sided, unfortunately.” ~ SBBishop

                On nature’s side, fortunately.

                The other side’s a far tougher sell, especially these days.

53. Buick Makes Bold Statement with Its Vision for Future EV Design
    Electra electric crossover concept makes global premiere
    2020-09-28

    Advanced electrification technology and smart mobility

    Leveraging GM’s global EV expertise, the Electra is supported by its new-generation high-performance modular electric propulsion system. Utilizing the advanced Ultium battery, the Electra has a range of more than 660 kilometers on a single charge, making it ideal for daily commutes as well as family trips.

    Thanks to the industry-leading wireless battery management system, the Ultium battery reduces wires within the battery by 90%. It also helps balance chemistry within the individual battery cell groups and conduct real-time battery pack checks to safeguard battery health.

    The Electra’s Ultium drive unit has high-performance motors in both the front and the rear to ensure optimized power output. It has maximum power of 435 kW, enabling 0-100 kilometer per hour acceleration of just 4.3 seconds.

    Additional vehicle highlights for future mobility include GM’s next-generation intelligent driving technology with door to-door smart mobility solutions, as well as V2X technologies, to offer a safe and intelligent ride with peace of mind.

    https://media.gm.com/media/cn/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/cn/en/2020/Sept/0928_Buick.html

54. A new July US oil production thread has been posted.

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/us-july-oil-production-continues-to-rise/

    A new Non-Petroleum open thread has been posted

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-october-1-2020/

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