Eagle Ford Update, Texas Condensate and Natural Gas

113 thoughts to “Eagle Ford Update, Texas Condensate and Natural Gas”

1. “Why do these rates then fall in magnitude after that date?”

   “The explanation is found in figure 5 above. Profits reach too low a level by early 2018 for some oil companies to think it worthwhile to continue drilling and they drill fewer wells.”

   That’s underway right now. No profits b/c the use (waste) of petroleum does not offer any returns to anyone, only time-wasting, entertainment and empty status. What supports energy prices and drilling are loans. That energy prices cannot be met = customers are insolvent and cannot borrow.

   They are insolvent and cannot borrow because there are no returns on driving save for those who drive tractors or delivery vehicles. Look @ USA books and borrowing costs for useless automobiles = US$58 trillion. Look at the international picture and the total debts taken on to support our hobby = US$800 trillion (equivalent). That’s a lot of money our grandchildren owe. They better get to work.

   So-called ‘production’ gets all the attention, the losses pile up on the consumption side where already a trillion barrels of high-quality crude oil have been burned up … with absolutely nothing to show for them but some junk cars, crumbling freeways running from nowhere to nowhere … and toxic gases in the atmosphere … lurking like avenging elder gods aiming to wipe us out.

   Remember, once the expensive oil is out of reach, there is no cheaper oil available to make use of. Also, shortages resulting from inability to pay are permanent: shortages reduce wealth, further shortages do not make ‘consumers’ richer.

   1. Steve, Other than feedstock to produce certain products and perhaps the smelting of metals burning FFs really produces nothing in the end. I suppose one could look at it as an accelerator of labor much as oxygen accelerates the chemical reaction of burning. Thanks Ron. for another fine article and for monitering the pulse and bloodpressure of the terminal patient known as Industrial Civilization,

      1. Thanks Ron. for another fine article and for monitering the pulse and bloodpressure of the terminal patient known as Industrial Civilization,

         Thank Dennis Coyne, it’s his post.

         1. After 1/2 of the post I’ve said to myself “this can’t be written by Ron Patterson”

         2. My apologies to Dennis and thanks as well to the both of you and others. They say that the devil is in the details…I guess I missed the authorship detail. It’s not as though it’s in fine print or anything…my bad.

   2. I have no bones to pick with you in terms of your basic arguments.

      BUT : ”That’s a lot of money our grandchildren owe. They better get to work.”

      Hardly any of the money is ever going to be paid.

      BUT again- I hope they manage to pay enough to cover my social security check for a couple more decades. LOL. I suppose the odds are about even or maybe a little less in my favor for most of those two decades.

2. Suncor reports employee fatality at Oil Sands site
   Suncor Energy regretfully reports an employee was the victim of a bear attack this afternoon at its Oil Sands base plant approximately 25 km north of Fort McMurray. The employee was pronounced deceased on the scene. The RCMP along with Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development – Fish and Wildlife Division responded to the scene and the animal was put down.

   Peak bear.

3. Latest missive from Ed Morse:

   Welcome to the Revolution
   http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141202/edward-l-morse/welcome-to-the-revolution

   My comments:

   While the Bakken Play is still on a production upslope, the average production per well in 2013 was a little over 100 bpd, while the median production per well was less than 100 bpd.

   I just have a hard time understanding how production rates like this are supposed to work in much higher operating cost environments around the world, especially where effective royalties are much higher than the 25% or so that we tend to see on new leases in the US.

   1. I’m not sure if anyone believes this nonsense anymore.

      Anyways we are at most a few short years away from finding out.

      1. Please explain what you mean by “nonsense” Dolph9.

         1. my impression of dolph9’s post was that the “nonsense” applied to the foreign affaris article

            and i’m thinking the same thing… the stories are wearing kinda thin

            the logic is relentless… if peak oil is such a big deal, then it was probably the reason the neocons needed a new pearl harbor

            and THAT is why they’re denying peak oil by hyping the fracking

            1. it’s almost dark… the geese are coming, low… i hear them coming… glimpses as they go over

               lord knows where they’re gonna find lodging in pocatello, and ark air has no lift

               i’ve been thinking of them for a while now as a reward for …what?

               1. wadosy, you have a poet in you.

               2. yeats
                  .

                  Turning and turning in the widening gyre
                  The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
                  Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
                  Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
                  The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
                  The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
                  The best lack all conviction, while the worst
                  Are full of passionate intensity.

                  Surely some revelation is at hand;
                  Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
                  The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
                  When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
                  Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
                  A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
                  A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
                  Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
                  Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

                  The darkness drops again but now I know
                  That twenty centuries of stony sleep
                  Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
                  And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
                  Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

               3. The poem of the century.

               4. what was yeats driving at?

                  that poem was published right after the balfour declaration

                  but the problem with poets and songwriters is, sometimes they don’t know what their poems and songs are about…

                  yeats, though… well, I don’t know

               5. seems like he knew exactly what he was talking about

               6. Yeats will turn a girl’s head more than geese, but the rough beast slouches regardless.

                  Every generation or so has their rough beast. How will we deal with ours? I don’t know. I have hopes.

               7. you say every generation has its rough beast

                  every generation has not had to deal with peak oil and global warming, though

                  those are not political ego trips… those are geology and chmeistry and physics

                  rough beasts can be dealt with… but you cant defeat geology by droning it

                  all you can do is prolong the agony

                  maybe that’s good enough if all you are is a looter

               8. I got to say, I get momre comfort from the gesse than yeats

               9. from the geese, too

               10. i guess maybe in the eyes of most of the world right now, the roughest beast they’re facing is the israeli american UK empire

               11. “the nicest house in wimer,” my dad says…

                   probly not, but i got her down on the stove with my hands around her throat and decided, right then, to get divorced

                   later, she said i was the sanest man she knew

                   can yu trust her judgment?

                   she married me, didnt she?

                   .
                   it gets tiresome

               12. Karen,

                   “wadosy, you have a poet in you.”

                   I second that.

                   Doug

   2. ART BERMAN…. “You can always show a profit if you exclude enough costs.”

      ELMER FUDD…”Youse can aways incrwease production if youse ferget about dem decline wates.”

      Steve

      1. Hi Steve,

         The decline rates are quite steep for the Eagle Ford, about 75% decline from month 2 to month 12 with the decline rate decreasing in later years.

         Note that some of the costs that have been ignored are covered by sales of associated gas from the oil wells. It is the shale gas that is losing money

         1. Dennis,

            I just spoke with Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. She whispered on the phone to me that they plan to print money for the shale gas players. So, no need to worry about them losing money…. it grows on trees now.

            steve

            1. Chart of Eagle Ford Average well

               

               1. Okay, that comes out to be about 258 barrels per day the first year. That is with me eyeballing the chart to get each month’s data. That is pretty close to what the Bakken produces.

                  I suppose the first month is a start up month and that is why it is half the second month. For the first full month then production comes to about 525 barrels per day, but declines by a whopping 75% the first year.

               2. This says the average well is doing 2000 barrels per month after 2 years?

                  That’s a huge number compared to Bakken rock.

                  Is the porosity that much higher in Texas or natural permeability?

               3. Nah, maybe not. It’s not too different.

                  The rate is somewhat higher, and I guess that supports what the local worker said some Ronposts ago that “he doesn’t know of much oil in Texas that doesn’t get hauled on a truck”.

         2. Dennis,

            Remember… chain’t nothing like FUNNELFAN Capitalism.

            steve

4. Excellent work as always, Dennis. Sure looks to me like the EF is on plateau at the very least, but the news articles are all about Perpetual Boom so who knows what to think. Is the EF becoming less and less of a factor in overall TX, are other regions taking up the slack? Or does everyone just expect the RRC to catch up with the EIA’s numbers in due time?

   Also – isn’t it curious that the lines in Fig 8 suggest the outline of, of all things, an eagle?

   1. Hi KLR,

      Thank you.

      The rate of increase in Eagle Ford output may be slowing, the EIA estimates may be revised downward at some point as I don’t think a linear rate of increase will continue, one possible hint is to look at how fast new wells are being added. As the wells become less profitable the rate that new wells are added will slow down. Check out the Eagle Ford page at RRC of TX. Search “eagle ford RRC of TX”.

      1. Or just go there: Eagle Ford Information

         Be sure to click all four “stats” buttons for some very interesting charts. Only drilling permits are not slowing down. Everything else is.

         1. Hi Ron,

            I was thinking of this video that shows how the “oil wells on schedule” has changed over time. See link below.

            http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/eagleford/eagleforddevthru032014.wmv

            For Jan to March 2014 an average of 244 oil wells per month were added to the schedule (which means they were completed), for the Dec 2012 to Dec 2013 period the average was 200 oil wells per month.

            Note that oil production “slowdown” shown in the chart is partly due to the bad RRC data, the Jan-Feb 2014 bar should be ignored because it is only 2 months.

            1. To see how the 2 month Jan Feb 2014 bar distorts things, I created a chart with 2 month average Eagle Ford Output using my EF estimate rather than the poor RRC data from 2013 and 2014. Not really a big slowdown in oil output so far. Output is C+C in kb/d 2 month averages ending with Jan-Feb 2014.

               

5. “Is the EF becoming less and less of a factor in overall TX, are other regions taking up the slack?”

   Seems unlike, especially since Texas has an “exception” drought. I recall there are potential fields in west Texas, but there is also no water available for fracking. TX drought may turn in a economic and social crisis.

   http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2014/05/12/could-texas-water-crisis-dry-up-the-stateseconomy.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+vertical_30+(Oil+%26+Gas+Industry+News)

   http://www.texastribune.org/2013/05/07/texas-groundwater-dropped-sharply-amid-droughtstud/

   1. From your last link:
      In South Texas’ Carrizo-Wilcox Aquifer, median water levels of the monitor wells dropped by 4.4 feet in 2010-11, with average declines of 17.1 feet.

      In discussing the Carrizo-Wilcox, the water board noted: “Irrigation pumpage during the drought has increased substantially in the Wintergarden area of [south-central] Texas, particularly Zavala, Wilson, and Atascosa counties. Pumping of groundwater has also increased to support oil and gas exploration and production activities related to the Eagle Ford Shale.”

      But will this have any effect on production in the Eagle Ford Shale?

      1. “But will this have any effect on production in the Eagle Ford Shale?”

         Probably not, I was thinking it would prevent or at least discourage drilling in Permian (West Texas) where there is no water. For the time being, This drought is going to have a major impact on food prices. In every country that has food prices rise, ended up with riots and other civil disobedience. I doubt it will happen in the USA this year, but if the drought persists for the next few years?

         That said it will probably be the financial issues that wind down fracking as creditor pull back. At best they may finance whats remaining of the current identified sweet spots.
         Interesting Article on ZeroHedge:
         http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

         If its correct, than the World is already in a global recession and stockpiling is delaying factory shutdowns and layoffs

         1. Commenters on that thread attacked the premise and exposed it.

            It goes on, but most of those photos are from 2009, or near a port waiting to roll on or roll off a car carrying ship.

            So it happens, but the photos send a message that isn’t legit. It’s another example of how 70% of the value of ZH is that it has attracted people who know stuff.

6. maybe we’re in a pickle

   maybe the global nervous system is being rewired by the internet

   maybe the usual suspects dont quite grasp the significance of that

   .
   more likely, though, judging from their preparations, the know exactly what’s happening, and are gonna deal with it morally…

   …seeing as how their basic moral belief is “might makes right”

   1. Hey ee cummings.

      How about some caps and periods? I am tired of skipping your posts.

      Thanks….Paulo

   2. As you pointed out above there are people problems and physical problems- geological and climatic problems that cannot be finessed.

      But people problems are natural problems to and while they may not be easily solved, and perhaps not solved at all, they are easily understood.

      All that is necessary to understand people problems is a sophomore level of understanding of university biology- basic Darwinian evolution plus a few of insights that may not have occurred to freshmen.These insights are generally inaccessible to laymen and to the vast majority of social sciences majors.

      The first one is that humans are nothing more and nothing less than highly evolved animals- among the ones that happen to be at the outer and upper ends of the branches of the tree of life as it is usually drawn in textbook illustrations.

      ANIMALS we are, nothing more, nothing less.

      Evolution is a blind process that works by chance- if something chances to come into existence and it works it is retained if not it is discarded.

      Behavior is determined by genetics and a little bit ( comparatively speaking) by learning or training. Any body who does not understand this can be taught to get down on all fours and track rabbits like a beagle or dig tunnels like a mole. LOL You must be programmed to do these things as well as physically equipped to do them.

      Mother Nature -working thru her handy man evolution- does not deal in right and wrong. Mother is not even capable of recognizing such concepts -she has no mind at all.

      Mother deals in survival. Power means survival. Weakness means extinction at the human level.

      Behavior is as simple as that.

      It is fine and dandy to talk about right and wrong and I do so myself and think in those terms.

      But I am not confused by them. They have nothing to do with survival at the primary level.

      Now at a secondary level we humans can and do cooperate with each other in working to survive when faced with problems of the non human sort.We can and do cooperate with each other in terms of our in groups or identity groups (conservative, liberal, trade union, gun nut, nazi, commie, libertarian,vegetarian, religious, kinship, nationality) in opposition to other groups.

      We have two hands. Think of one as a fist and the other as mothers and understand that we will use either according to the way we perceive the situation.

      As often as not we use the fist.

      The fist has prevailed most of the time which is for instance why the are people like me living in my neighborhood as opposed to the Indians who used to camp on ”my” bottom land – where I find arrowheads every time I plow.

      In a thousand years some other sort of people will most likely ” own ” ”my” bottom land.And most likely it will be the fist that facilitates the change in ” ownership” between sorts of people.

      Mother Nature doesn’t care. Mother Nature doesn’t give a damn.

      She isn’t even keeping score.

      Score keeping is a game we humans have invented.

      We are conceited enough to think it matters.

      Some day the sun is going to vaporize this planet. Suns to the ten to the umpteenth power of ten have been expanding and vaporizing planets since the beginning- if there was one. Suns will be doing the same until the universe either contracts into another ball or expands to the point it freezes up.

      And Mother Nature will not have noticed at all in all that time.

      Nevertheless I still love little girls all giddy with excitement in their Easter finery and the birds that are on the feeders outside the picture window at this minute.

      I ” love ” half grown tender young cottontail rabbits fried nicely too.

      I hope that by that age their mothers don’t miss them.

      It’s very sad to hear cows calling all day and night for their babies that were hauled to market.Hardly anybody except soft hearted old fools like me ever thinks about such things.

      We warehouse our parents in nursing homes but at least we don’t leave them out to starve and freeze so maybe we aren’t as bad as we could be.

      1. Humans are animals. We think we are special because of the stuff we build and because we pass on knowledge through written work. Pretty sure there are no other animals that do the latter. It may make little difference.

7. Ron, the other day there was a mini thread on ghost cities in China you were part of. Well, here’s the next best thing – giant parking lots filled with autos. Got to see these pics!

   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die
   ‘Where the World’s Unsold Cars Go To Die’

   That’s an article now running on Zero Hedge. If you go to the link and scroll down you’ll be amazed at the thousands of cars being stockpiled. The article seems to suggest they have no where to go? Pics in England, Spain and Russia. Maybe they should match them up with the ghost cities in China. LOL! Then all they would need are mannequins in cars and apt’s. to complete the look. It would be like a twilight zone episode – drop someone off in the middle of the city and they would spend hours running around, yelling, “Where is everybody?!”

   1. See comment above. That ZH article is not entirely legit.

8. To,Dennis,Ron,Doug and all other posters :
   Your work and effort is highly appreciated . Just a suggestion that at the end of your post could you make a summary or may be a conclusion of your post so that the layman can get the gist of it . For a guy like me who was at TOD since 2006 and knows what is happening it is possible to comprehend ,but a newcomer would just be scrolling up and down the page to understand what the heck it all means.

   1. hole in head,

      Where in hell did you get the idea we “understand what the heck it all means?

      Doug

      1. Agreed.

   2. I will try to do better in the future. I was trying to keep it short. You are correct, a brief conclusion would be a big improvement.

9. The Wrong Men Were Charged in Lac-Mégantic

   PETER WHEELAND on May 14, 2014 in Quebec, Ink

   Three men were charged on Tuesday with 47 counts each of criminal negligence causing death in last summer’s explosion of an oil-tanker train in Lac-Mégantic.

   In many ways, that’s a little like arresting a mail carrier for delivering a letter bomb.

   Holding a show trial for Montreal Maine and Atlantic Railway (MM&A) train engineer Thomas Harding, railway traffic controller Richard Labrie and train operations director Jean Demaître may give the impression of justice, but the employees of the grand defunct railroad are minor players in the tragedy of Lac-Mégantic.

   The fuse that lit up the night skies of the small Eastern Townships town wasn’t set 11 kilometres up the hill, where Harding had parked the train overnight. It was set in Ottawa and Washington, D.C. It was set in the boardrooms of oil and gas exploration companies around the world and, ultimately, as consumers, it was set by you and me.

   

10. Looking at the North Dakota stats, I just noticed something. There were 251 additional wells added in March and but only 200 new wells were added. All that means is that 51 previously shut in wells were reopened, likely closed due to weather, or perhaps workover. Anyway North Dakota production was up by 24,006 barrels per day. That means that production was up by 96 barrels per day per additional well and up by 120 barrels per day per new well.

    That ain’t really much to write home about.

    1. Yep, its the Red queen in action.

11. It is a Catch 22 with the peak oil dilemma. A predicament that has no way out except to drill for more oil. There is oil and it does flow, if the money runs dry, no investors, then it might stop, but it won’t until the leases expire and another will be required to be permitted to drill. It might stop then, but other formations like the Madison, the Red River, the Winnipegosis have a history of production, so the seismic data might generate new leases where those formations are located and have some oil.

    The faster it goes, the faster it goes. The worse it gets, the worse it gets. That’s what I read somewhere, seems to hold true for Peak Oil.

    12,600 barrels per day per well would solve some problems, out of the woods, but that isn’t going to happen anytime soon. A thousand wells would all be that is needed. 10,000 wells would be the cat’s meow at 12,600 bpd. There would be dancing in the streets, balloons, picnics, parades, the whole enchilada.

    The Middle Bakken Shale creates the oil, where the kerogen is add some hydrogen, the heat and pressure do their jobs and bust out some oil, that oil leaks/leaked through cracks in the upper and lower Bakken shales and deposits in the Three Forks/Sanish and the Lodgepole above the upper Bakken shale. They are Bakken oil reservoirs. That’s why there is emphasis on the Three Forks, it’s underneath the lower Bakken shale, the non-fossiliferous shale that cracks and fissures from heat and pressure in the Middle Bakken. That oil has to go somewhere, there is not enough room after the gases expand, it just has to go somewhere. It is a good thing that it becomes oil.

    1. Madison, the Red River, the Winnipegosis have a history of production…

       To those who have never heard of these formations, which should be just about everyone except those who googled them as I did, these are all Williston Basin formations.

       12,600 barrels per day per well would solve some problems,

       Indeed that would solve a lot of problems. Except there is not a single well in the Williston Basin produces anywhere close to 12,600 barrels per day.

       Bakken: Who’s Got The Most Productive Wells?
       According to WPX’s slide presentation, average cumulative 1-year oil production for the entire well sample was approximately 90 thousand barrels of oil (please note that the “Peer 1-Yr Avg” line on the graph below appears inadvertently misplaced)

       The study appears to “normalize” production data by excluding periods during which wells were unproductive.

       Okay, so excluding days when the wells produced nothing then that averages out to be 247 barrels per day for the very first year (on days that they did produce oil). For all wells in North Dakota’s share of the Williston Basin currently in production, production averages 97 barrels per day according to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

       I don’t know where you come up with these crazy numbers Ronald, but you should come down to reality and use the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources for your source of information. Oh, one more thing:

       That oil has to go somewhere, there is not enough room after the gases expand, it just has to go somewhere. It is a good thing that it becomes oil.

       Oil, if cooked hot enough and long enough will be cracked into gas. But gas never becomes oil.

       

    2. You missed some explicit process comments of the past months.

       Specifically, 3D fracking extends the artificial permeability up and down as well as side to side. This can penetrate vertical layer labels with the horiz bore in a different layer. You can drain one layer from another.

       As for Lodgepole, here’s what the USGS says:
       http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/WEcont/regions/reg5/P5/tps/AU/au524441.pdf

       Mostly in Canada, regardless.

       1. Arlcetis like this just make me want to visit your website even more.

12. Meanwhile the clock keeps ticking and world oil production appears to be near the brink. IEA says we need nearly another million barrels per day in the second half of the year from OPEC and an increase in non-OPEC production of 1.5 million bpd.
    That is almost equivalent to all of US tight oil production and it is needed in the very near future. I do not see where the increase in production will come from, let alone the new wells that need to compensate for the failing fields.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d738b160-dc17-11e3-8511-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31zC47IeW

13. As an oil and gas operator in S. Texas (smart enough not to drill shale wells) and a rancher as well, I can say to folks categorically that groundwater used for frac’ing WILL become a factor in Eagle Ford development. A big factor. We are in the worse drought imaginable down here, have been for many years, the massive Carrizo Wilcox is the 2nd largest groundwater aquifer in Texas and there are now not so subtle changes occurring in water levels and quality (increasing TDS content) in very key monitor wells and municipal source wells throughout the trend. The shale industry of course in quick to deny that and will not begin to seriously address recycling produced and flowback water until it absolutely is told to. Remember, those shale dudes are in this tight oil play to make a fast buck, then sell out, merge or get acquired before banks put the skids to all this marginally profitable crap they are doing. Then they’ll likely bail on the banks too. They look at groundwater depletion as something they have earned (usually by paying enormous lease bonuses) and think they will be long gone before it gets to be too big a problem. Interestingly, it often appears to me that surface owners who own the groundwater that is being depleted, to their royalty benefit, of course, don’t care either. Just keep those big checks comin’ boys; we’ll worry about the water later. Similar to the “evolution and energy independence” BS the shale industry spews forth all the time, it has done a good job at down playing water usage and future availability. Its on a mission, afterall.

    Those of us that are tied to the land and that recognize this shale stuff is little more than a fart in the wind are very worried about water. Texas needs to move quickly to begin to regulate usage and insist on recycling. It will; it has little choice.

    1. Hi Mike,

       I don’t live in Texas, but I did a little investigation into state of Texas’s Aquifiers and came across this site:
       http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/groundwater/

       If you look at the historic water levels it appears that the worse levels were back in 2001 (or as far back as the data goes on the website). For the time being it appears the the aquifers are still significantly above their lows. Please feel free to add input.

       My understanding is that Texas population is growing as more people leave CA and other states since TX has job growth (probably almost all attributed to the shale boom (natGas and LTO). I presume this is going to be a huge problem in the years to come. Not only because of the water problem, but when the shale drilling ends or tapers off.

       I am sure the release of 36K convicted illegals isn’t going to help. I suspect most of these releases were in the SouthWest:
       http://cis.org/ICE-Document-Details-36000-Criminal-Aliens-Release-in-2013

       1. TechGuy, I am not sure how you came up with the conclusion that the aquifer levels have risen over the period of record. I sampled the data from about 25 of wells listed and most of them showed significant drops in the aquifer level over the period of record. The Ogallala appears very hard hit.

          1. I Looked at some of wells that had data going back to 2001 and noticed the water level had risen:

             http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/groundwater/well/6819208

14. Folks…this is a bit off-topic, but a NEAT item to look at:

    Where the World’s Unsold Cars Go To Die

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

    You got to check out that article. This picture was included in the article. It shows thousands and thousands of unsold cars in a huge parking lot in Swindon, UK. “The car manufacturers have to buy more and more land to park these cars as they perpetually roll off the production line.”

    According to the article, “The images on this webpage showing all of these unsold cars are just a very small portion of those around the world. There are literally thousands of these “car parks” rammed full of unsold cars in practically every country on the planet.”

    FOLKS… YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ARTICLE. The pictures are worth a trillion words…LOL

    steve

    

15. Sorry… I just had to throw in one more picture. We got cars and trucks up to our eyeballs… with no where to go. Talk about a PHANTOM ECONOMY….LOL.

    steve

    

    1. Steve,

       Maybe they plan to hold a Garage Sale some day.

       Doug

    2. If they don’t make any money, they will stop producing cars. This tends to happen during recessions, inventories build up, production slows down until the inventory is sold down.

16. So – does anybody here know how many months of production of cars are stockpiled?
    I am not disputing that a lot of cars are sitting unsold but I doubt it amounts to very many months of production.

    1. I started to think about that question later, ofm. What is the turnover rate for car sales? To the naked eye it seems like there are too many to possibly move all the merchandise, but maybe that’s par for the course? In any event, if there really are that many cars being manuf. and sold, it shows just how committed we are to this level of consumption.

       1. In 2012 there were 84 million motor vehicles (cars and trucks) produced and 54 million in 1997, an average annual rate of increase of about 3% over the 1997 to 2012 period.
          If we assume all cars produced eventually are sold (sometimes at substantial discounts to MSRP). then there were likely about 7 million cars and trucks in parking lots waiting to be sold during any given month in 2012. If the growth of 3% per year has continued through 2013, the number in 2013 would be 3% higher.

    2. Here are some global sales numbers, which does not address the inventory question though. However, it appears that normal inventory in the US is around 60 days of sales, although it can hit over 100.

       In any case, at 60 days of sales, auto inventories globally would be at about 14 million, while at 120 days of sales, auto inventories globally would be at about 28 million.

       Global auto sales hit record high of 82.8 million
       http://www.cnbc.com/id/101321938

       Annual Global Auto Sales
       2013: 82.8 million
       2012: 79.5 million
       2011: 76.7 million
       2010: 73.2 million
       Source: IHS Automotive

       1. Here’s an interesting coincidence. The gross annual increase in global auto sales per year is almost the same number as the estimated annual net increase in global population. The net increase in annual auto sales would be gross sales less scrappage.

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

          Global human population growth is around 81 million annually, or 1.2% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing to reach 11 billion by the end of the century.

          1. “It (global population) is expected to keep growing to reach 11 billion by the end of the century.”

             If we are extrapolating to 2100, just for fun, here’s an interesting number. At the 2010 to 2013 rate of increase in global auto sales, in the year 2100 global auto sales would total 3.5 billion per year.

             1. Jeff,

                According to a voluminous 2012 UN report, which I just scanned, the world’s population will increase by 57 million per year (2000 to 2050). They also say, you’ll agree, projections beyond 2050 are meaningless. So, we may add the equivalent of the populations of China and India to our blue planet by mid Century: Not that far away. Personally, I think there are far too many of us here already.

                Doug

17. Mr. Tech; there are three USGS monitor wells in the Carrizo Wilcox in the middle of the EF trend on your site and they no looky to good to me; the rest of aquifers you refer to are irrelevant to EF development. In S. Texas its very dry, groundwater sources are under a great deal of stress and if each of those stinkin’ shale wells uses 200,000 BW, not 100,000 like the shale industry would have folks believe, and 2000 plus wells a year are being drilled, its a problem and it needs fixing. To fully appreciate that you would have to be lowering ESP pumps all the time, or pulling windmills, overlooking total dissolved salt tastes in water wells, things that the internet can’t tell you.

    Yes sir, we should have shut all the gates 15 years ago.

    1. Don’t know what a BW is, but several sources quote 1 million pounds of water per well in NoDak to frack. Much of it flows back up, contaminated and is inserted down into a disposal well which has regulations defined for Class II wells. It’s a good read.

       Basically the water needs to be pretty pure to mix with proppant, you push it and the proppant down and then the oil flows up with water, now brine. You separate it and push it back down into the ground at a slightly different depth than the oil structure, but way way way below the water table or aquifer.

       If someone breaks the rules, then that’s illegal, but if they comply then that’s how it works. But for your interest that 1 million pounds of water per well (8 pounds per gallon) has to be clean and probably does come from agro or drinking water sources. If the stage count of the frack increases beyond what generated the 1 million average number, than it’s going to be more than 1 million.

       125,000 gallons, btw, or more if more stages.

    2. “things that the internet can’t tell you.”

       Thanks, thats why I asked. I thought it was odd that the water level appeared to be significantly above the 2001 lows.

18. Volume of water used in the oilfield is not expressed in pounds, it is expressed in barrels; the amount of proppant required in a frac procedure is often expressed in pounds. A typical shale well in S. Texas, from toilet water in the crew trailers, to constant rig washing, to building the drilling mud system, mixing cement, circulating fluids during completion preparation and total frac water use during a multi stage frac is close to 200,000 barrels of water (BW). Multiply that times 2400 wells per year and consider that a typical family of 4 will use 120 gallons of water per day in their home… and it is a problem, for Texas anyway. They have water I guess in N. Dakota.

    Once that frac water is flowed back there are ways to clean it up and re-use it for other frac’s, etc. Its costly but it is done; Apache, for instance, in the PB is recycling frac and produced water and the make up is only about 5 % of the water that other operators use, not recycling.

    In the EF play they don’t recycle because they don’t care. The primary water source, the Carrizo, is vast and contains millions upon millions of acre feet of water in it. They say they can’t put a dent in it. But lots of Carrizo water wells are drying up in areas of the EF, water levels are going down, water quality is worsening.

    In Texas it is part of the legacy of expensive tight oil resources that our children will remember us by. In N. Dakota it will be that every square foot of crop land will be covered by limestone drilling pads eventually. Whoo-who!

    1. I wonder just how the water situation is going to play out in the end. I don’t really have any clear ideas but I will hazard a guess that it won’t be at all like most of us think in the mid term.

       Consider the case of houses in far out suburbs. Most pessimists think they will depreciate to near zero but I don’t. A person who is willing to make some changes in the remainder of his lifestyle can and will be willing to pay a considerable sum for such a house – if he can find employment even fifty miles or more away. And if he has already owned it for a while with a fixed rate low interest mortgage the payment is often very very modest in comparison to anything that can be bought or rented near that all important job.

       SO – what can he do? He could carpool in a Volt and need only a couple of gallons of gas a day split three or four ways. He could get the laws changed involving public transit and get a bus permitted to run once a day from his neighborhood to the big office complex where he works. He could ride as scooter or bicycle to a community location where people pick up others and share rides- with everybody carrying a phone that takes pictures of the car they are getting in and sending them to the family not many will get kidnapped.

       A man who stands to lose a hundred grand or more on his Mcmansion in the far out burbs can even buy a Tesla if he has the money and gasoline is rationed or ten bucks a gallon.

       My point is that once the water situation gets to be truly critical and people are looking at losing homes and closing businesses on the grand scale options that appear to be prohibitively expensive right now may look pretty damned cheap in comparison to losing it all and pulling up roots with ruined credit and moving.

       A few giant wind farms could provide enough power to move an awesome amount of water a good many hundreds of miles and so long as it arrives the intermittency of wind power would not matter at all- it will go into reservoirs for distribution any way. All that will matter will be the average rate of delivery over a couple of weeks or months -wind can handle that and pumps can be turned on and off without harm as the power waxes and wanes.

       It is unlikely such water can be had cheap enough for irrigation and maybe not for Fracking but it might save a lot of communities with economic underpinnings other than oil and agriculture.

       1. OFM,

          I think your missing the big picture: No Jobs. All those things you discussed can’t happen if there are no jobs. No Energy or Expensive Energy = No Jobs. When people are forced to take drastic measure because of high prices or rationing, the economy will collapse. People will stop buying and only purchase the bare essentials. No more eating out, No more new cars, no more new homes or home improvements, no more big screen TVs, no more malls, etc. All of these will mean fewer jobs to point the economy completely collapses.

          Electric cars will disappear as the cost of electricity soars and it will soar as Coal plants are forced to close (EPA regulations) and NatGas prices soar back into the double digits again. Only a very small portion of the population can afford Volts, Priuses and of course Teslas. What is likely to happen is people buy cheap gasoline cars with tiny engines, or just stick with their existing vehicle with duct tape as they will be unable to afford to buy a replacement.

          What I think will happen that the economy is going to fall back into recession soon. This will be another step down for energy demand causing prices for Oil and perhaps NatGas to sink again. This will force drillers to furlough work until prices rise again. Eventually depletion will force prices back up. I think drillers will go back to work, but not on the same scale as they drilling today. There will probably be a series of energy price swings: As prices rise it leads to further demand destruction causing a price correction. Each cycle the global economy shrinks and never makes a full recovery. The economy will loosely track the decline of Oil.

          At some point nations will start to take resources by force. China has already begun this with Vietnam and its disputes with Japan and the Philippines. The US has started earlier in the Middle East. Eventually, China and the USA are going to run out of small weak nations to plunder resources and their will be a new hot war which will go nuclear. The next step is the beginning of Proxy wars that happened in the 1950’s,60’s & 70’s as nations go to war by supplying weapons and money to let foreigners do the killing and dying first (Syria and now Ukraine). Eventually some is going to be forced to send in their own troops as a one side begins to lose a strategic proxy war. This will eventually lead to direct conflict as the other side also sends in its own troops.

          The only way I see the world avoiding WW3 is if the US and China collapse as riots and mass civil disobedience occur in both China and the USA at nearly the same time. I think if the US falls first China will initiate a nuclear strike on the US. I recall an article about a interview last year with a Chinese Military official claiming that China is developing a plan to take out the USA.

       2. Hi OFM.

          A person who is willing to make some changes in the remainder of his lifestyle can and will be willing to pay a considerable sum for such a house – if he can find employment even fifty miles or more away. -snip- He could carpool in a Volt and need only a couple of gallons of gas a day split three or four ways.

          The problem with this concept is that owning that house requires two middle-class incomes. Our jobs change continually; you may have to work for a different employer or a different branch of the same employer, and you may not have much choice over geographic location. Your house may have been purchased at a time when it was convenient for both of your commutes; 20 years on, it may be an hour and a half car commute from both jobs. And everyone in your community may be in the same boat: you are all heading to and from offices that are nowhere near each other at disparate times of the day. Even with social media organizational schemes, car pooling is hugely problematic.

          But that’s not the half of it. IIRC, only about 25% of suburban car usage goes to commuting. The other 75% goes to shopping, delivering the kids to wherever they’re going, social activities, health care visits, etc. This is where the rubber meets the road- not in the commute.

          As a child, I lived in an isolated suburb. It was a big deal when my mom got her own car. In the past 50 years, the area (where my dad still lives) has been malled and big-boxed to the extreme. It is still a car culture: 90% of the things you need to do require a car – or take four times longer to deal with the bus schedule.

          The suburban fantasy requires one income and one car per adult, and no strictures on how the cars are used. You have to be able to drive to where you want to be. The suburbs without unlimited mobility is a twisted version of rural poverty.

          The value of those homes will drop because no one wants to live that life, and if they are forced to, they sure won’t pay extra for the privilege. They were sold “Beverly Hills 90210”, not “Little House on the Prairie.” (Whether one is better than the other is a different discussion.)

          -Lloyd

    2. That’s good data, Mike, and consistent with other items we hear.

       1 million pounds at 8 pounds per gallon is 125,000 gallons, and the other uses you quoted of constant washing, etc, could very well go to 200K gallons per well.

       Read an article about the possibility of recycling produced water. It was eye opening, because the recycler will concentrate radioactive material. Shale has radioactive isotopes in it. Spread apart and diffuse, but if you bring it up with water and separate it, you are concentrating it. Getting rid of that has to be part of the recycling cost.

       1. Watcher, its 200,000 barrels x 42 gallons per barrel so each shale well can use up to
          8,400,000 gallons of water. To put that in perspective, to drill and complete one shale well requires the same amount of water than an entire community of 2,000 people would consume in 32 days. I realize that is not as earth shattering as where they park unwanted cars, but you have to admit that is a lot of water and why it should be of great concern to S. Texans.

          Respectfully, I believe trace amounts of radon have been found in up-dip regions of the Marcellus shale in New York. I can’t speak for the Bakken but there are no natural radioactive elements in the Eagle Ford. Recycling flowback and produced water to be used again to frac another well 350 feet away is a pretty straightforward process of removing dissolved salts, produced clay fines and residual oil in water concentrations. Its not that big of a deal.

          But nobody is going to do that on their own initiative as it costs money.

          1. Hey Mike,

             Could they make disposal more expensive with fees or taxes so that companies would choose to recycle the water?

             1. Dennis, yes. Commercial injection/disposal facilities work on a competitive, free enterprise basis so the State would have to impose a tax on disposal on a per barrel basis. I believe the big shale boys in consolidated areas of operations have their own disposal systems so there would have to be some means of taxing, or surcharging those private systems as well.

                The more likely solution would come in the form of permitting source water wells and monitoring withdrawal rates, for instance restricting usage. Where I live we are in a Stage 3 restriction phase and it will be October, maybe, before I can, for instance, water my lawn again. Those restrictions are imposed by my local groundwater authority (not Carrizo Wilcox, however). Another year or so of drought over the Carrizo and 5000 more stinkin’ shale wells, and there will be oil industry related restrictions, IMO.

                My point is in all this is that water for extraction of hydrocarbons is a serious problem in Texas. It will get worse. If frac’ing tight oil resources is all we have left to do to arrest the fall, somebody needs to wake up to how much human consumable water that is going to require. Ultimately, in my opinion, that will be a factor in what we can, or can’t depend on from the Eagle Ford.

                Mike

19. I copied this from the Dallas Morning News which may only exist on the web for all I know.

    But it seems almost insane that the business section of any paper could run such stuff as this. A ten year old should know better than this.

    ”There has been a lot of talk about U.S. exports of natural gas in the future. But export abroad will not keep U.S. natural gas prices up either.

    There is already more than enough production of natural gas in the U.S. to satisfy demand from abroad. In addition, natural gas is only useful in wealthy nations, as it requires three sets of pipelines to take it from the ground to the end user.

    The most affluent area in the U.S. does not even have enough pipelines, as last winter demonstrated. And economic growth in emerging markets will not drive up the price of natural gas — since emerging markets can’t make use of much natural gas now.

    Without demand at home or abroad, natural gas prices will drop even more.”

    I am hoping some body else can post something even funnier- except that it isn’t funny because so many people will believe it.

20. DC is doing a good job modeling the hyperbolic decline fracking wells.
    I would like to contribute more on the topic, but the math on this is no longer challenging — as long as the game theory of profit and loss are not considered — and so I decided to explore something more complicated.

    Perhaps I made a mistake in trying to predict when El Ninos will occur
    http://contextearth.com/2014/05/02/the-soim-substantiating-the-chandler-wobble-and-tidal-connection-to-enso/

    But listen to what DC is saying. He is thorough in his analysis.

    1. What’s the connection to oil production?

       1. Combustion of fossil fuels releases CO2 which affects climate. El Nino exacerbates warming through transfer of stored heat from the ocean to atmosphere?

          1. The connection to oil relates to the common cornucopian and denier mindset.

             But seriously, one aspect I have been concentrating on is Systems. The system we are dealing with is twofold — depletion of resources and harnessing the energy of the natural environment. We have to understand climate to take advantage of the latter.

    2. Thanks Paul. Please visit from time to time. I plan to attempt to explain your oil shock model with dispersive discovery in the future using a minimum of mathematics beyond algebra. Hopefully you can correct any oversimplifications and out right errors.

21. Oops, different device. Hadn’t logged in.

    What’s the connection to oil production?

    1. Weather has always affected production… The bakken this winter, hurricanes in the Gulf, etc.

       More importantly, the flip side of the coin… The connection to oil consumption is quite well founded. So well worth exploring.

    2. Re weather
       How drought may impact water availability for fracking in the Eagle Ford.

22. Ron,

    Unprecedented melt of B.C. glaciers seeps into U.S. climate change concerns
    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/unprecedented-melt-b-c-glaciers-seeps-u-climate-080013840.html

    “VANCOUVER – the Mountains of British Columbia cradle glaciers that have scored the landscape over millenia, shaping the rugged West Coast since long before it was the West Coast.

    But they’re in rapid retreat, and an American state-of-the-union report on climate change has singled out the rapid melt in British Columbia and Alaska as a major climate change issue.

    According to the report, glaciers in the region are losing 20 to 30 per cent of what is melting annually from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has received far more worldwide attention.

    That amounts to about 40 to 70 gigatons per year, or about 10 per cent of the annual discharge of the Mississippi River.

    It is some of the fastest glacial loss on Earth. The cause: rising temperatures due to climate change.
    Early results suggest these glaciers are shedding 22 cubic kilometres of ice annually, or about 22 billion cubic metres of water. For comparison, an Olympic swimming pool contains about 2,500 cubic metres of water.

    “When we start to look at some of these individual mountain ranges, we’re seeing some rates that are truly exceptional,” Menounos said.

    Similar loss is happening worldwide, and it is accelerating. “Collectively start putting all of those numbers together, then there is the potential to raise sea level by something on the order of 30 to 40 centimetres from that ice,” he said.

    Glacial water is a thermal regulator in mountain headwater streams, Menounos said. Their loss will affect water temperatures, fish and the annual snow pack. That will affect the water supply and agriculture. “Even 40 centimetres of sea level rise will cause annual flooding for 100 million people on the planet,” he said.

    Glacial loss can be slowed, Menounos said. The biggest issue is human consumption of fossil fuels.
    “We know what we need to do,” he said. “It’s not an easy decision, but we have to start, I would argue, thinking about changing our reliance on fossil fuels.”

    Doug

    1. Maybe we should examine this in a bit more detail?
       https://www.google.com/search?q=early+climate+denier+image&client=safari&rls=en&biw=1440&bih=803&tbm=isch&imgil=uGZPKWsAJ0W6CM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcTTI2W3Yecnr71AdBXrYpUuzfJJJqm5-ZesvCZlpzjObaw_L8x5lA%253B590%253B430%253BAhZ8WzwoB75E2M%253Bhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.truthdig.com%25252Fcartoon%25252Fitem%25252Fearly_climate_change_deniers_20140507&source=iu&usg=__JnQhuq_9fjBpqezOywgegVLn-6A%3D&sa=X&ei=mv14U5qhApOBoQSUnIHYCg&ved=0CC8Q9QEwAQ#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=uGZPKWsAJ0W6CM%253A%3BAhZ8WzwoB75E2M%3Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.truthdig.com%252Fimages%252Fmade%252Fimages%252Fcartoonuploads%252Fearlyclimatechangedeniers_590_430.jpg%3Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.truthdig.com%252Fcartoon%252Fitem%252Fearly_climate_change_deniers_20140507%3B590%3B430

       1. A bit more detail?

23. Now NASA is looking into the possibility of civilization collapse:

    Could civilization collapse? NASA-funded study looks at framework for how, when

    1. Frugal,

       “Putting a positive spin on the study’s results, the authors says that human societies are able to reach a sustainable state when they avoid economic inequality and limit resource use.”

       Where, one might ask, are these two things happening? Certainly not here; Europe maybe. Anyway, thanks for bringing this interesting analysis to our attention.

       Doug

    2. Best comment in the comment thread:

       It will happen when plastic packaging becomes so tough nobody can open it.

       1. Yes I’ve noticed packaging is becoming more difficult to open. Or maybe I’m just getting old.

    3. From your link:
       “We can, as humans, make critical choices that can change the long-term path that our social system will take, and we can optimize such choices using scientific models,” said study co-author Jorge Rivas, of the Institute of Global Environment and Society.

       No we cannot! Individuals can do all that. They can make critical choices that change the long-term path they and others who follow them will take. We cannot make such choices for whole societies, or whole nations, and certainly not for the whole world.
       That is exactly what I have been arguing for the ten to fifteen years. We can all play “Think Tank” and come up with many ways which we believe would save the world. But the world moves to the will of 7 billion individual minds and pays no attention to our little think tank.

       Most people in the developed world are optimistic. They believe that everything will work out for the best and if some big problem does arise then the government will “do something” to fix it. And people in the undeveloped world live day to day and have no input into anything that happens outside their village or ghetto.

       People do not hear arguments of impending disaster and act. They wait until the disaster is upon them and then react.

       1. Yes I agree. There’s a huge difference between what can be done, and what’s actually going to be done, or more more importantly, not going to be done. I really don’t think we’ve evolved enough to prevent societal collapse. And even after the first collapse, we’ll continue along a similar path toward the next collapse.

          1. Want to know what scares the living hell out of me? I am sure there will be survivors. But those survivors will possess certain characteristics that allowed them to be survivors in a time of anarchy, chaos and starvation. They may or may not be the smartest of our species. But they will certainly be most brutal, the most selfish and perhaps have very little empathy for his fellow human beings. In other words, there will be a lot of psychopaths among the survivors.

             It will all be about “survival of the fittest”. Who, or what type of human being, will be the fittest in such a world?

             I have been thinking about this a lot lately. It sometimes keeps me awake at night, especially when I contemplate the fate of my children and grandchildren. I wish I could just be an ignorant cornucopian, convinced that everything will work out for the best. “God won’t let anything really bad to happen to his creation”, they believe. I don’t.

             1. In other words, unless you’re a brutal psychopath, you won’t likely survive the first collapse. An even if you do, you’re in for a brutal competition against psychopathic survivors. Instead of survival of the most intelligent, it’ll be the dumbest who survive, and as this progresses it’ll lead to de-evolution. Maybe will turn into great apes again.

                1. Well no, I don’t think that’s quite right. I know of no study of human population that says psychopaths are dumber than the average population, or that big brutes are also dumber.

                   What you will likely have is the smartest brutes and the smartest psychopaths surviving. I think brainpower will always play a part. Just how large a part is hard to say.

                2. I think (hope) the folks who can work together stand the biggest chance of surviving calamity..

                3. Wowza, problem solved like it never hanepped.

             2. RP Wrote:
                “But those survivors will possess certain characteristics that allowed them to be survivors in a time of anarchy, chaos and starvation.”
                Its hard to suggest it will work out that way. Brutes survive but taking over resources some has. They can only survive as long as they can find new resources to plunder, eventually their luck will run out.

                Those that survive will be the homesteader/pioneer that can produce the resources they need, from next to nothing. Those that can grow there own food, mend and repair equipment, and improvise. This is the opposite of a brute. If you have the discovery channel, see the show “Alaska the Final frontier”

                http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/alaska-the-last-frontier

                That said, 99% of the global population lacks the pioneer mentality. The Prepper loaded up with bullets and beans will only last as long as their stockpile lasts.

          2. Frugal, Ron,

             Maybe the extra 4 billion people (currently) being added to our blue planet can contribute a dozen or so new members to our Think Tank.

             1. It is impossible to say what the odds are of it happening but there is a slim possibility that we could react as a species to our environmental problems.

                Empires have arisen and lasted a long time in the past and controlled vast stretches of territory.Empires are likely to arise again before we devolve back to horses and steam powered railroads and bolt action rifles.

                It is possible that a country such as the US or China or even the old USSR- conceivably even modern Russia could develop a new military technology and wind up ruling the world. The possibility exists now to maintain control given modern communications and spying and data collection.

                It would not be possible to totally give up fossil fuels but a world wide totalitarian government could cut back far enough to change the calculus of collapse -by using a combination of strategies including forcible birth control measures.

                A world wide totalitarian government may come to pass but of course it almost certainly won’t be one concerned with climate change.

                A very hard crash is baked in but a few of our grandchildren will pull thru.

                1. Empires have arisen and lasted a long time in the past and controlled vast stretches of territory.Empires are likely to arise again before we devolve back to horses and steam powered railroads and bolt action rifles. ~ Old farmer mac

                   Unsure about that and suspect that we are seeing this empire thing’s last hurrahs…
                   I say this in part because empires seem to need, in part, energy (for slaves, military, bureaucracy, etc.) and/or a nourishing/(nourished)/stable environment/ecosystem/(human population).

                   From a kind of natural systems brain or body perspective maybe, I see something like the body having one of those dysfunctions where it attacks itself, and/or Alzheimer’s sets in, where what inevitably remains are a few scattered living cells/neurons– back to the tribes, perhaps the empires’ antitheses.

                   With regard to Ron’s comment; anarchy is exactly what we seem to need; chaos, starvation and governpimps, not so much. Peak oil appears as peak governpimp, and with that, yet more cop cars set ablaze and more molotovs launched with the remaining petrol resources are expected.

                   Bye bye, plutocracy, and good riddance. I won’t cry for you.

24. How can you get your river to be right up next to each other? When I tried to do this, it makes me put a big space between each row of river Yours are pcerfet though

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