April Non-OPEC and World Oil Production Drops

By Ovi

Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to April 2023. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac spread charts.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months was used to project the May and June production numbers in a few cases.

World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.

April Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 407 kb/d to 51,049 kb/d. The largest decreases came from Canada, US and Russia.

Using data from the August 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period May 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 53,195 kb/d in December 2024, which is 787 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.

Read More

STEO and Tight Oil Update, July 2023

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early July. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

This month we have actual EIA data for 2023Q1 which increases the annual rate of increase for the forecast period compared to last month by 600 kb/d, part of the reason is an 800 kb/d forecasted drop in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2023. If we use the 2023Q1 to 2024Q4 trend the annual rate of increase is 911 kb/d, about a 100 kb/d increase from last month’s estimate. The trend from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4 is similar at about 916 kb/d. If this forecast through 2024Q4 is roughly correct, I expect increases in output after 2024 will be considerably lower, I also think this STEO forecast is optimistic. Annual average output in 2022 was 80.74 Mb/d and increases to 81.4 Mb/d in 2023 and to 82.6 Mb/d in 2024. These annual averages are 0.25 Mb/d less in 2023 and similar for 2024 as last month’s estimates.

Read More