US tight oil legacy decline can be estimated by assuming no future tight oil completions in the various US tight oil basins. The charts below illustrate such an estimate for the Permian, North Dakota Bakken/Three Forks, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and other tight oil basins (not included in the previous 4 tight oil basins).
Permian legacy decline is 3405 minus 3142 or 263 kb/d. Read More
New tight oil estimates were recently released by the EIA. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to May 2019, where the Dec 2018 estimate is that estimate with the most recent month estimated being Dec 2018 and likewise the May 2019 estimate has May 2019 as the most recent month estimated. The May 2019 estimate is fairly close to the April 2019 estimate with a slight downward revision of the April 2019 estimate from 7399 kb/d to 7368 kb/d, March 2019 was also revised lower by 10 kb/d from 7292 kb/d to 7282 kb/d. For May 2019 the most recent estimate is 7462 kb/d and if past history repeats this estimate may be revised lower next month.
The US Energy Information Administration publishes Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play each month (can be found at link above.) I noticed this month that the estimates seemed different than I remembered so I checked earlier estimates I had saved on my computer. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to April 2019 (where the last month of data in the estimate is Dec 2018, Feb 2019, March 2019, and April 2019).
Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu
September 2018
This is Part 4 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world coal production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world coal supply and considers the implications of peak coal production for global economic growth.
This report uses Hubbert linearization to evaluate a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources where a Hubbert linear trend can be meaningfully established, that is, where a clear downward trend of the annual production to cumulative production ratios can be identified and has been established for at least several years. Otherwise, this report uses alternative sources to establish a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources, such as official reserves, official projections, or estimates made by energy research institutions.
Figure 14 World Historical and Projected Coal Production, 1950-2050
Figures are placed at the end of each section. Read More
Department of Economics, University of Utah
E-mail: minqi.li@economics.utah.edu
July 2018
This is Part 2 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world oil production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world oil supply and considers the implications of peak oil production for global economic growth.
(See Figure 18 near end of paper) Read More