Is Non-OPEC Oil Production Recovering?

A post by Ovi @ peakoilbarrel.

Below are a number of oil production charts for Non-OPEC countries, created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to August 2019.  Information from other sources such as the IEA and OPEC is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.

Non-OPEC production increased by 752 kb/d to 50,482 kb/d in August from 49,730 kb/d in July. This is the first significant monthly increase in 2019. Output declined from January to May. The main contributor to the increase was the US by adding 599 kb/d. This leaves August production just 295 kb/d short of the previous high of 50,777 kb/d reached in December 2018. New output from Norway and Brazil, along with increasing US output coming in the next few months could raise Non-OPEC output beyond the previous December 2018 high. The question “How much higher beyond the December high” is of great interest to OPEC+.

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Is US Oil Production Growth Slowing???

This is a guest post by Ovi here.  

All of the oil production data for the states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly.

The charts below are updated to September 2019 for the largest US oil producing states (>100 kb/d).

There continues to be much speculation and information pointing to a potential slowing of US oil production.  However the latest production data from the EIA continues to point higher, albeit at a slower rate.

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Permian Basin, Bakken/Three Forks and Eagle Ford Net Volume

In the discussion here I use the term net volume to refer to the volume of prospective rock that might be developed to produce tight oil.  For each bench of a prospective tight oil play (Wolfcamp A would be one example of a bench) there is an area estimate (5733 thousand acres for Wolfcamp A of Delaware) and a success ratio (%) = 94.7, in the case of Wolfcamp A.  Net acres are the total acres times the success ratio, for Wolfcamp A, 5429 thousand net acres.  On average the Wolfcamp A of the Delaware basin is about 400 feet thick, so the net volume would be net acres times thickness or 2172 million acre-feet.  An acre-foot is a volume that is one acre (44,000 square feet) by one foot thick or 44,000 cubic feet (or a box that is 1000 ft long by 44 feet wide by 1 foot high.)

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EIA Non-OPEC Oil Production Updated to July 2019

Below are a number of Non-OPEC charts created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics.

The charts and table below are primarily for the world’s largest Non-OPEC producers and are updated to July 2019, except for the U.S., which is updated to August 2019. The first set of charts is for Non-OPEC countries with production over 500 kb/d and the last few provide a world overview.

Under some charts are added country comments from the IEA since I have updated data from them up to September 2019. While the IEA production numbers reflect “all liquids”, their July to September increments provide an indication of how the trend in the EIA charts will change by September.

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