Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to May 2020. Information from other sources such as the OPEC and country specific sites is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.
Non-OPEC production dropped slowly from a high of 52,638 kb/d in December 2019 to 52,396 kb/d in March 2020. In April that changed when we saw the first big drop in output from the Non-OPEC countries associated with Covid and with the drop in world oil prices. May output collapsed to 45,340 kb/d, which is close to the production level in September 2013.
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to April 2020. Information from other sources such as the OPEC and country specific sites is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to March 2020. Information from other sources such as the OPEC and country specific sites is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction.
Near the end, there is a section comparing World oil production with World oil production W/O the US. Interestingly, World oil W/O the US peaked two years before World oil production. The last section provides a short summary of The Shift Report, where it shows the increasing difficulty oil producing countries will have in offsetting decline in old oil fields and the difficulty in getting back to pre-pandemic supply levels.
It would be appreciated if we could have some further comments on these two sections before the Covid comments start. Does the fact that world oil production W/O the US peaked two years before World oil production make it more likely that November 2018 will continue to be the date for Peak Oil? Are there any weaknesses or missing or newer information that could shift the Shift Report time frame for meeting world demand post 2025?
This post updates Non-OPEC production to February 2020. However we are now in late June 2020 and the effects of the plunge in the price of WTI which began on January 6 and ended in the negative low of $-37.63/bbl on April 20 is showing up in plunging production numbers in US and other oil producing countries that post more recent output numbers. However WTI has now recovered to close to $40/b and weekly US production numbers are indicating that output may have bottomed.
Drilling and development activity off shore Norway has been fairly steady through the life of the basin. This has been partly from government policy, through tax relief or direct action, but also through opening up of new areas as technology becomes available. It has moved from mainly producing oil to now being dominated by gas, although there is little direct gas exploration now (note that converting gas to o.e. is simple in S.I. units and is just a factor of 1000).
Drilling activity has been high in the 2000’s for development wells (including a lot of in fill drilling and some major redevelopments) and exploration (I think there is very favourable tax arrangements that encourage drilling in even fairly low prospective areas). Appraisal drilling has been more flat and there has been some reports that some discoveries have proved disappointing after start up, possibly because of insufficient drilling before development was approved.
There are twelve projects “approved for production” (i.e. in development) with average reserves of 26.5 MSm3 and average discovery year 2001; nineteen projects “production in clarification phase” (i.e. in FEED or pre-FEED) with average resources of 25 MSm3 and average discovery year also 2001; twenty nine projects “production likely but unclarified” (i.e. in conceptual design) with average resources of 10 MSm3 and average discovery year also 2003; and twenty eight projects “production not evaluated” with resources of 8.5 MSm3 and average discovery year also 2010.
The number of “hydrocarbon shows” has been large recently but they have mostly been small with “production unlikely” or “not yet evaluated” (and present prices mean most of these are likely to be deferred at best).
The number of development projects per year has, if anything, been increasing slightly, although the size has been generally decreasing. The number of shut down fields is increasing slowly but the have been a number that have had their life times extended beyond their original shut-down date (through improved reservoir performance and/or major redevelopments).
The oil price may have influenced activity but I can’t really see it much, maybe the effect of the current crash will be more obvious.
