A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel
To all of our participants, I wish you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year.
All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future US production is provided. The charts below are updated to October 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.
A post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel
All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future production is provided. The charts below are updated to September 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.
This analysis concerns C&C only. Natural gas production is low and steadily declining with few deep gas-condensate discoveries and the shallow dry gas fields at end of life. I don’t know if lack of gas may affect oil production – e.g. insufficient: flow to allow stable pipeline operation; income to be economic to warrant continuing maintenance; or fuel gas or lift gas supply to surface facilities. Any such issues could influence shutdown timing and hence the possible stranding of assets.
The chart above shows a Verhulst fit to GoM C&C production using seven curves, three describing shallow production and two each for deep and ultra-deep. A symmetric logistic curve is convenient for manual curve fitting as it allows a linear extrapolation to give the ultimate recovery, but most production curves are not symmetrical – usually the decline is less concave with a thicker tail, especially as the production volume and number of independent producing entities are reduced. With Excel, using least-squares optimisation fitting to any curve(s) is simple and has the benefit of allowing additional constraints to be imposed for sensitivity checks (e.g. total area, equivalent to the ultimate recovery, and position or height of peak), so more general Verhulst curves allow closer fitting.
Read MoreA post by Ovi at peakoilbarrel.
All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports projecting future production is provided. The charts below are updated to August 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.
A Guest Post by George Kaplan
Production is dominated by major international companies particularly, and maybe surprisingly, European ones. Principally Shell and BP, but with Equinor, Eni, Total and Repsol also active and many are (or were) seemingly wanting to expand in the area. Maybe this is an example of reciprocal technology transfer: the North Sea was initially developed with a lot of American offshore know how and there it may now be the reverse is happening as deeper water fields using floating and subsea systems are developed.
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