Author: Ron Patterson

Bakken, What Is The Data Telling Us?

Ron Patterson 367 Comments

North Dakota publishes, every month, a Monthly Statistical Update from which we can gather a wealth of data if we dig deep enough. They publish the number of spuds, that in new wells started, each month, along with the average number of rigs that month. From this we can glean the average number of days each rigs spends on each well.

Spuds per Rig

The last data point is March, 2015. Through 2011 a rig could drill about .75 wells per month, or about 40 days spud to spud. Today that figure is about 1.14 wells per month or about 26.3 days spud to spud.

Permits & Spuds

Again, the data is through March. We can see the falloff of spuds, rigs and permits in February and March. April and May should show a further decline in all three.

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Texas RRC February Production

Ron Patterson 340 Comments

The Texas Railroad Commission has released its  incomplete production data for February.  The RRC also estimates final production but that data has not been posted yet.

All Texas RRC data is through February. The EIA data is through January.

Texas C+C

It looks like, after the final Texas data comes in, that February crude oil will be above January production but still below December production. It is my best guess that Texas production will be down about 80,000 barrels per day in January and up about 50,000 bpd in February or about 30,000 bpd below December production.

Texas Crude Only

I always post the last six months data just so we can get some idea of the general trend. You can see the general trend is up until January when it took a huge hit and only partially recovered in February.

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AEO 2015, The EIA’s Crude Production Expectations

Ron Patterson 235 Comments

The EIA came out with its final update of Annual Energy Outlook 2015. It seems that the EIA is extremely optimistic concerning future US crude oil production.

AEO 2015

Here is a comparison with AEO 2014. The EIA still expects US crude production to peak in 2019 but at 10,472,000 bpd or 824,000 barrels per day higher than the expected last year. But the biggest difference is in the EIA’s change in decline expectations. They now expect the US to be producing 9,329,000 bpd in 2040 or 1,812 higher than they had 2040 production last year. This is the EIA’s reference, or most likely case.

AEO 2015 1

Production from tight formations leads the growth in U.S. crude oil production across all AEO2015 cases. The path of projected crude oil production varies significantly across the cases, with total U.S. crude oil production reaching high points of 10.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in the Reference case (in 2020), 13.0 million bbl/d in the High Oil Price case (in 2026), 16.6 million bbl/d in the High Oil and Gas Resource case (in 2039), and 10.0 million bbl/d in the Low Oil Price case (in 2020).

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North Dakota Bakken February Production

Ron Patterson 396 Comments

The NDIC Bakken Production Data and the NDIC North Dakota Production Data is in. Production in the Bakken was down 11,941 barrels per day and production in all North Dakota was down 14,104 bpd. The numbers for January were revised slightly. January Bakken was down 35,064 from December and all North Dakota was down 36,331 bpd from December.

Bakken BPD

As I have pointed out before, the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, for some unknown reason, estimates the last six or seven months, when the actual data is available. In the above chart they estimate from October on. This throws their current numbers way off.  The DPR data includes the Montana Bakken therefore their numbers will naturally be higher than the North Dakota data.

Bakken Eventual

Of course the EIA DPR will eventually bring their numbers into what North Dakota is reporting. The above is what the eventual Drilling Productivity Report will look like. (In Orange). Here is the amount the historical DPR is off.

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