in the previous open thread Hideaway posted this chart with no links to the underlying data or anything else to say whether this is primary energy or electricity generation. He did say it was “what’s actually happening in the world…”:
Just wanted to say thanks for your updates on EVs. Great information in your late post in the last thread. I’m glad to be able to take advantage of your tracking and sharing of key updates.
It’s about the energy source used as a percentage of world Aluminium production. It is not as you are trying to make out about total world electricity production, and if you want to re-read my prior posts, I put up the graph in terms of world Aluminium production…
Hideaway. As you have pointed out coal is is big for global aluminum production, and lets add to the list metallurgic coal for iron/steel production.
People have said that the world is not prosperous enough to forsake inexpensive energy like coal, and whichever country uses it without hesitation will have a competitive advantage for industrial output… from steel to data processing. And that is true unless there was a big economic penalty applied globally to coal associated production…which is not going to happen.
China is a great example of the status of things.
Coal consumption has dropped from 86 to 54% of total primary energy consumption since 1965, but nonetheless the total Chinese coal consumption has increased almost 20 fold over that period.
You can see this displayed very well about 1/2 way down the page with side by side graphs- https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/china?country=~CHN
Coal isn’t going to fade away anytime soon, globally.
Not until it becomes hard to find, and/or population begins to significantly decline.
People will put energy availability and the prosperity it allows over climate every day of the year.
Intense global heating is baked in the cake folks.
The US coal consumption has dropped precipitously over the last 25 years, now providing less electricity than solar and wind combined (about 17% of total generation).
Now the US net imports most of its aluminum consumption.
The imports come over 1/2 from Canada, where aluminum is created with 96% hydroelectric source of electricity.
On the other hand places with some economic strength are displacing coal with wind and solar to a considerable degree.
Good chart on this here-
“The U.S. hit a major energy-transition milestone last year: For the first time ever, it produced more electricity from wind and solar than from coal.
Over half of U.S. states (28) now get more power from breeze-blown turbines and sun-soaked photovoltaic panels than they do from polluting, planet-warming coal”
Hickory …. This is a fallacy, promoted over and over again…
“On the other hand places with some economic strength are displacing coal with wind and solar to a considerable degree.”
Which of these places with some economic strength are totally making and installing their own solar and wind from energy used in their own country??
Answer is none. They all are importing all the solar, wind and or components of them from countries with cheap fossil fueled production. The Aluminium frames and Aluminium rails the panels sit on (on rooftops) all come from the newer coal burning smelters.
Looking at any one country, or group of countries for ‘renewable’ installations misses the big picture that the world as a whole is still increasing fossil fuel additions faster (in TWh) than renewable installations on a decadal time scales.
It’s only the longer term that counts as the mines have to be built and factories constructed, all by fossil fuels before the raw materials can be gathered and concentrated to be put together as a solar panel. Growth of ‘renewables’ in the future can only happen with more mines and factories first to provide the raw materials..
I acknowledge that much of the solar and wind buildout in places like the US is coming from energy consumption in China, and that just over 50% of the energy in China does come from coal.
And that is just one of the reasons why why I pointed out that overall fossil fuel consumption won’t decline until people can’t afford it, simply can’t get it (depletion, trade wars, embargoes etc), or population declines.
I’m not sure why it matters if wind or solar systems use fossil energy in the build as these cleaner industries build capacity since they both seem to have positive energy and dollar payback in a fraction of their useful life. Did it matter if we used horses to build the first tractor factories?
Also a major component of their fossil energy “cost” is in aluminum smelting which is trivially low-energy to recycle especially in an “energy farm” system where the “worn out” material is not dispersed over a wide area.
Another issue missing in this discussion is that it really doesn’t matter if a small fraction of today’s coal production continues for centuries as long as it is below what the atmosphere can absorb. Today, with carbon essentially not regulated in world coal production, metal processing only accounts for about 10% of total fossil fuel burning.
JJHMAN … ” as these cleaner industries build capacity since they both seem to have positive energy and dollar payback in a fraction of their useful life.”
No they don’t when ‘back-up is also included. Also please don’t point to any research that has ‘boundaries’ as evidence. For heavy industrial uses, they clearly don’t stack up as I’ve often given the example of what they are NOT doing!!
Hideaway- in the real world where of hundreds of utilities and dozens of countries have decided to deploy solar and/or wind they have done so because they have found that the economic/energy equation is very favorable compared to other energy sources.
These global utilities and countries are not involved in an endeavor that doesn’t pencil out, despite your tunnel vision on this topic. Most are not trying to come with a 100% deployment, rather they will push until the point at which they find it optimal for their particular scenario/asset mix.
-“Renewable energy sources accounted for almost 90% of new electrical generating capacity in the United States added in the first nine months of 2024, with solar accounting for 78% of new capacity.”
-“Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023. “.
-“Brazil added 11 GW of new [electrical generating] capacity in 2024, 91% of which were solar and wind.”
-“New Delhi, 02 May 2024: Renewable energy (RE) sources contributed to 71 per cent of the ~26GW of power generation capacity that India added in FY 2023-2024”
It all could have been coal instead.
Hickory, you do realise that all these numbers get deliberately exaggerated don’t you?
“New Delhi, 02 May 2024: Renewable energy (RE) sources contributed to 71 per cent of the ~26GW of power generation capacity that India added in FY 2023-2024”
An installed capacity of 1GW of renewables with a capacity factor of 25-40% (solar/wind) is not equal to 1 GW of coal or gas with a 90%+ capacity factor, yet it’s sold to the public like it is….
Here is what’s happening in Australia with new large scale solar projects despite all the hype, from the Clean Energy Council…
I’m pretty sure that all of the utilities who are involved in these deployments know the difference between capacity and generation. Intimately.
And yes, I do as well.
Hey Hideaway
It looks like annual electrical generation in Australia will reach a milestone right around year 2030 with nationwide electricity provided by Solar equaling that provided by Coal combustion.
And still you will have just barely scratched the surface on possibility.
Just 10 years ago coal was roughly 73% and solar 2%.
Hideaway,
If we look at total electrical generation capacity for coal and natural in the US and compare it to total net generation by coal and natural gas power plants, we find something very different from 90% capacity utilization. In the US in 2023 total coal and natural gas power plant nameplate capacity was 765.7 GW which would be 6708 TWh if operated at 100% capacity and 6037 TWh at 90% capacity. Actual power output from natural gas and coal power plants in 2023 was 2481 TWh in the US, about 37% of nameplate power capacity of coal and natural gas power plants.
Thanks, Hickory. You answered better than I could have.
The whole topic of ‘renewables’ costs is incredibly complex and skipping over the details, makes anything look possible. It’s only delving deeply into what’s happening that reality is seen.
You guys can keep pointing to areas where “renewables” are growing all over the place due to grants, subsidies, and mandates, all according to green agendas about climate change, but it doesn’t change the facts that fossil fuel use is at record highs.
There is no transition happening, as all the renewables have become cheaper because they are being built with the cheap source of fossil fuels and have reached economies of scale in production. Meanwhile fossil fuel use keeps rising.
In Australia, the electricity bills keep growing well above the rate of official inflation, despite all the “cheap” solar power now going into the grid. The system is more inefficient than it was previously, as we have all this new generation installed, yet have many times a year when the old is needed to operate at maximum capacity. Adding more batteries and/pumped hydro just adds more cost.
Reality also tells us new coal power plants are being built as captive plants for Aluminium smelters and nickel refineries, keeping these input costs to the ‘renewable’ revolution down.
No-one anywhere is building these captive power plants from just solar, wind and batteries as it’s too expensive to do, and would only provide expensive materials to build solar, wind and batteries with.
Reality is that if we were to have a magnitude more ‘renewables’ in the system, world wide, fossil fuel use to build it all will have to rise greatly. This will make everything much worse for the natural environment, with a lot more mines, more burning of carbon, more plastics manufactured from fossil fuels, all to the detriment of every other species and the climate of the planet.
Hideaway
I think this is the best and most important point you have made on energy system diversification- “much worse for the natural environment, with a lot more mines”
It is true that certain mineral are used much more extensively in nuclear, PV, wind, batteries, EV’s than in energy systems that don’t use these technologies.
Copper, Uranium, Lithium, Graphite, etc.
It goes right to heart of the conundrum- what is good for the human enterprise of growth, prosperity and ‘progress’, or even simply stability of current economic systems, is bad for the biosphere and the myriad of residual creatures we ‘share’ the earth with. No doubt about it.
However I assert that the policy of forgoing energy system upgrade and adjustment is not going to get you any votes or takers since the lack of action is a certain rapid path to energy poverty. People all around the world aren’t going to look energy poverty in face without putting up a big effort to at least slow the inevitable contraction that comes with depletion. That is certain… even if it still is an eventual losing battle.
And people sure don’t like the vulnerability of being held hostage to distant or adversarial energy suppliers.
Things look different to places (something like a hundred countries) in the world who are already net importers of energy than perhaps to someone from your country.
So, I went over to the Our World in Data web site and found this web page:
where I found the chart below. It is obviously not the same thing. The chart posted by Hideaway does not show any contribution from wind or solar. Why? The chart below shows solar on a trajectory to overtake hydro as the third largest source of electricity globally by the end of this decade.
Another thing I find curious about the chart posted by Hideaway is where on earth was hydro contributing 60% of energy (of any kind) in 1990 only to fall by 30% between 1990 and 2020?
THERE COULD BE BILLIONS MORE PEOPLE ON EARTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
“There could be billions more people living on Earth than currently thought, according to a new study which claims rural figures worldwide could be vastly underestimated. Currently, the UN estimates the world population to be about 8.2 billion, which is projected to peak at over 10 billion by the mid-2080. However, research, published in the journal Nature Communications, found that rural populations in these estimates could be undercounted anywhere between 53 per cent to 84 per cent over the study period between 1975 and 2010.”
The good news is that rural humans in underdeveloped societies don’t cause an iota of damage to the biosphere compared to urban dwellers in industrial societies have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
I think it’s a more complex situation than either of our above comments suggest.
I did look at the articles you referenced above and it seemed that the problems identified were not related to indigenous peoples living traditional lifestyles but rather the result of industrial and commercial intruding into their worlds.
Humans are just to clever and short sighted to care for the world we live in. Giving “simple” societies the tools of industrialization is just as bad as us having them.
“My husband doesn’t even have tattoos,” she told USA TODAY. “It’s a kidnapping … What happened to them is a great injustice.”
We were once a nation of laws, we are looking more like Russia than the US lately. Not a good look.
Another excerpt from article linked:
Immigration-rights activist Kate Wheatcroft of the New York-based nonprofit Together & Free said her staff has identified about 50 deportees sent to El Salvador. Of those, 44 have no criminal record either in the U.S. or Venezuela, she said.
So of the 50 identified deportees, 44 have no criminal record that is 88% of the sample. The Trump administration should be sued by the ACLU on behalf of these people and their families.
It seems the Trump administration is deporting Venezuelans with tattoos with no further investigation. Seems their crime was having a tattoo.
“We were once a nation of laws, we are looking more like Russia than the US lately. Not a good look.”
I guess we should expect that, given that our dear leader’s role model is the dictator of Russia.
Is he lying? Or maybe he isn’t signing the documents signed in his name? Or is his mind just gone?
The strange things he said about Biden pardons being null and void come to mind.
If his raving about Canada being the 51st state aren’t enough to invoke the 25th Amendment, this should be.
This is the document in question with his signature. It is dated March 20, 2025. He said this one day later.
I’m 65 and never dreamed I’d watch my country die before my eyes, and not just because of Trump but because of the millions of servile toadies that support him.
This is way off topic Mike, but after reading your 3QD Cultural Apostate piece, I could relate to your sentiment that you didn’t leave film, rather film left you, but I was also left wondering if your movie repertoire, prior to your molt, included much international film? There are so many excellent ones, starting with the German film The Lives of Others by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, and Burnt By The Sun, from Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov. The U.S. is heading into new territory, but it is unfortunately following a well trodden path.
Thanks, Bob. Not much experience with foreign films here, though I suspect your assessments are correct. Watching movies is just not a thing I do anymore. Lots of documentaries on YouTube, though!
I agree to actually live through it is something different than what I expected.
I knew this was coming for a long time now, but one cannot predict exactly the ways in which it plays out.
For instance, the fact that Trump has so many supporters has to do with sheer demographics. Rural and conservative folk get the business of having kids done, while city dwellers delay, because of their crowded conditions and different lifestyle. So over long periods of time, the culture and demographics of city dwellers declines, while rural folk always come rearing back.
Even back in the 2000s during the Bush years, I knew there were lots of them, but I didn’t imagine they would last all the way until 2025. I now know better. They are going to last until 2050, 2075, 2100. And not living forever, but reproducing their own kind and culture.
I will never again underestimate just how much rednecks actually control America through their numbers.
Maybe EVs will save us. Just joking, I know we have gone beyond that point.
EARTH’S DRYLANDS EXPAND, AFFECTING BILLIONS AS CLIMATE WARMS
Drylands would likely expand in the U.S. Midwest, central Mexico, parts of Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina, the entire Mediterranean area, the Black Sea Coast, and southern Africa and southern Australia. There are no regions of the world that are expected to go from drylands to a more humid climate in the future.
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS CARBON FOOTPRINT IS WORSE THAN COAL
“Liquified natural gas leaves a greenhouse gas footprint that is 33% worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account, according to a new Cornell study. “Natural gas and shale gas are all bad for the climate. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is worse,” said Robert Howarth, author of the study and the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. “LNG is made from shale gas, and to make it you must supercool it to liquid form and then transport it to market in large tankers. That takes energy.” The research, “The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States,” appears in Energy Science & Engineering.”
You had some commentary in the last thread about duration of car ownership that I wasn’t following and am wondering if you could clarify.
What is the source for the note that new car owners keep a car for 4 years?
DC noted that he runs a car for at least 10 years, and you seemed to suggest that similar behavior would put auto manufactures out of business. However, the average age of light duty vehicles in the US in 2023 was 12.5 years. What am I missing?
As an aside, I’m with DC. The last two vehicles that we’ve gotten rid of have both gone straight to the junkyard. A 14 year old Honda and a 22 year old Subaru. Both just rusted away from the salt used on the winter roads here in the NE US.
However, fleet turnover is a function of how long the entire fleet is still on the road. Unless drivers start abandoning ICE vehicles with remaining life in favor of EVs, this is a critical parameter.
It is possible that as the TCO of EVs decreases that ICEVs will see a a shorter life before being removed from the road, but my EV transition models just assume the average time to removing an old ICEV from the road remains constant and that fewer new ICEVs will be sold over time. I also do not include the possibility of autonomous EVs becoming ubiquitous and have become more and more skeptical of Musk’s claims as he seems to be running a big con on the Autonomous vehicle front.
Thanks for the insight DC. Your model assumption makes sense to me.
I know you’ve commented about owning a Tesla, but I have never trusted him even before the last year. Too many lies and crazy behavior from the boss to start with, but the over reliance on camera based sensing has never made any sense to me. Compare that against the lidar, radar and cameras used by Waymo and I know which I would want to trust my personal safety to all other things being equal.
You were and are correct to be skeptical. Unfortunately I was fooled by his bravado and confidence, he is a very good con man. Or I am far too naive. Perhaps both are true.
The increase in percentage of coal for aluminum reflects the rise of China, like so many other recent trends. The question is how fast China will decarbonize its electricity industry.
I’m going to try a little thought experiment here.
Let’s pretend that auto loans were the entire US economy. $1.7 trillion economy. To keep it simple we will say the average interest rate on these loans is 7%.
How do you pay principal plus interest on the loans?
Only way to do it is to expand the amount of auto loans exponentially. With each and every new loan made it is required that even more loans are made. Otherwise when payments are made the money supply shrinks making the entirety of all the loans unplayable.
This is how the actual economy works when we include everything that makes up the economy.
In the long run the banks are toast. Not just a handful of banks. All of them. Every single bank has loaned out money that can only be repaid by banks loaning more money at an exponential rate. Even if there was just one bank the problem still exists. Even if central banks were the only banks the same problem still exists. Which is exactly why central bank digital currencies make no difference. If central banks were the only banks they’d be the ones loaning out money that can’t be repaid instead of the commercial banks. Makes no difference.
As long as the supply of energy is increasing it’s easy for the banks to make loans.
Btw currently Chinese banks aren’t doing a whole lot of lending. This is under a top down command economy. Where the government says hey make loans or else. Chinese banks are buying safety and liquidity in government bonds instead of making loans into the economy. Banks are more than willing to accept less than 2% on a government bond instead of lending into the economy.
Anybody believing that we have a decade or two before things really start falling apart isn’t paying attention. Those Chinese banks work just like any western bank. The loans they have already made require exponential loan growth in order to be paid back.
The problem lies within the interest expense. But who, or what bank is going to lend money out for free? Even one time or monthly fees that banks charge are not much different than the interest expense. In order to pay that fee or charge there has to be exponential growth in loans otherwise the money to pay those fees and charges was never loaned into existence in the first place and there would never be enough money to payback debt plus the fees and charges.
Energy could stay on some sort of a plateau and we’d still have a collapsing economy. Because debt requires growth in energy to be repaid.
HHH
You’re completely correct. It isn’t just energy but energy growth that is required. We’re well into contraction now. Things will be breaking much sooner than people think. The UK is a poster child for it as they were the first to industrialize and are now a basket case of run down impoverished cities.
I take from this post and others previously that you follow the school of thought of the endogenous money model. Yes?
Completely separate from that, you suggest an underlying link between bank lending and the globally available energy supply. A link that you have previously noted is not acknowledged within the banking industry.
I am not agreeing or disagreeing, just trying to follow your logic. Can you point to any more formal document our source for your various points? Something that perhaps shows your math?
Basically money is created by bank lending that is collateralized by productivity which is leveraged by energy. It’s a simple concept. If banks stop lending it’s because they fear that the money will not be repaid with interest which requires real economic growth to create the new loans. No growth no loans no money.
Garrett tests it with a direct energy to GDP equation.
Banks aren’t energy experts. They do have a good feel on when the economy isn’t doing so well or when it is doing well. And they pull back on lending when necessary. Or heavily lend to the government instead of the economy. All they know is the economy isn’t doing well.
There is no math. When bank lends out money to build say a warehouse. They are absolutely assuming that the owner will be able to lease out the building for X amount of rent per month which will cover the mortgage.
Banks literally just assume that there will be growth and that loan they made will be profitable. Based on previous growth. There are lots of airports and hotels and you name it that are being built that won’t even be needed or used 10-20 years from now.
There is a myth that we will just continue on and just have to make do with less and less, year after year.
What I’m saying is that it all falls apart. Borrowing money from the future and paying it back monthly falls apart. And not for just the unlucky few. It falls apart for everyone.
What could the average person afford to pay for a house, a car, groceries, or a tank of gas if it wasn’t possible to borrow from the future anymore? How many average people would even have a job?
When you have to repay more than you actually borrowed, then growth in the energy supply and money supply have to happen or else the debt is unplayable.
Our government isn’t printing money. They are just going deeper into debt. As long as commercial banks keep creating dollars via loans. There is enough money, dollars available, for some entity to buy the debt. The FED doesn’t create dollars.
What the Fed does is it creates bank reserves that are denominated in dollars. Then the Fed swaps its reserves for the collateral which is government bonds and mortgage backed securities from commercial banks.
No matter how many times it’s repeated when the Fed does QE it’s not providing liquidity into either the markets or the economy. And QT doesn’t drain liquidity.
All QE does is move collateral off the commercial banks balance sheet onto the Fed’s balance sheet. Which works when there is an expanding energy supply. Commercial banks have a cleaned up balance sheet and are able to lend again. But only if the energy is available for them to make loans into the economy.
Stock markets tell you absolutely nothing about any economy. Just look at Germany’s stock market. It’s at all time highs. But eventually this will catch up to the banks that are doing the lending to the corporations that are doing the buybacks. In the long run all those loans are going to turn into bad loans.
We will get companies fire selling their stock and banks eating the losses before all is said and done.
I’m not saying it has to be this year or next. But it’s going to happen.
“I’m not saying it has to be this year or next. But it’s going to happen.”
I am sure you are right on this in a massive way…as I have been since the late 1970’s. I’ve been sure we are getting closer to the system collapse every year.
Collectively, the ability to kick the can down the road is astounding.
Let me know when the last democracy turns out its lights. We’ll know we are deep in the midst of it then.
I’m in agreement banks don’t know why their economic indicators are bad. The route we know is energy.
My go to is a lobsterman in Maine. The banks only look at his net profit to determine if he’s a good credit risk. His net profit is derived from his cost of operation that is highly contingent on fuel costs. It’s a double edge sword. As fuel cost increases it increases his bait cost, operating, and transportation cost. Simultaneously reducing market demand as people adjust to higher energy costs. The banks might not recognize the amplification of higher energy costs but they do recognize that he can’t afford new traps this year. If you reverse the situation with lower energy costs profit soars and cash flow opens the credit window.
Decades ago, the collapse of the cod fishery off Newfoundland was a huge issue in Canada. I was pretty young at the time, but there was a newspaper cartoon I saw at the time that stuck with me:
The image was of a desperate fisherman, standing out in the water, pleading with the fish. And he is showing them a graph from his bank with a line going sharply upwards
And the fish are saying to him in response, “But we can’t grow that fast!”
“put Trump’s face on the $100 bill, create a new $250 bill with Trump’s face adorning it, make Trump’s birthday (June 14) a federal holiday, rename Dulles Airport in Trump’s honor and carve Trump’s face on Mount Rushmore.”
As Trump layoffs have hollowed out key weather monitoring staff amid storm season……….
RECORD 2024 TEMPERATURES ACCELERATE ICE LOSS, RISE IN SEA LEVELS
“Record greenhouse gas levels helped bring temperatures to an all-time high in 2024, accelerating glacier and sea ice loss, raising sea levels and edging the world closer to a key warming threshold, the U.N. weather body said on Wednesday. Annual average mean temperatures stood at 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels last year, surpassing the previous 2023 record by 0.1C, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual climate report.”
I suppose some will see this is good news, maybe they’re right?
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO PLATEAU THROUGH 2027
“Coal 2024 – the new edition of the IEA’s annual coal market report, which analyses the latest trends and updates medium-term forecasts – shows that global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It is poised to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. According to the report, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027 as renewable energy sources play a greater role in generating power and coal consumption levels off in China.”
Typical Canadian view from Jim Elliot… message to our American MAGA neighbors …
Dear 77,301,997 Trump-Loving, Conspiracy-Huffing, Rage-Addicted Americans (And the Canadian Dumbfucks Who Worship Them)
Oh, hey there. Sit down. Read this. Try not to cry.
Listen, I get it. You think we’re just a bunch of polite, snow-loving, maple syrup-chugging pushovers up here in Canada. You’ve been misled. We’re polite, sure. But only until we get pissed off. And you, dear MAGA cultists, are testing our fucking patience.
Let’s clear up a few things about who we actually are, because you seem to be confused. We’re a country that gives a shit about our elders, our kids, and our most vulnerable. We actually value education instead of treating it like some left-wing brainwashing experiment. We don’t get all horny over billionaires hoarding wealth while our neighbours die in poverty. We don’t fantasize about returning to the 1940s, and we sure as hell don’t think the most corrupt sack of shit on the planet was personally chosen by God. Who does that? Oh right—you.
But let’s go deeper.
We’ve Always Been Your Best Fucking Neighbour—So What the Hell Happened?
Time and time again, Canada has been there when the U.S. needed us.
World War I? We were in the trenches before you even showed up. World War II? We were storming the beaches of Normandy while you were still debating whether or not to help. Korea, Afghanistan, peacekeeping missions—you name it, we’ve had your back. We sent our firefighters to help when California burned. When Katrina wiped out New Orleans, we were there. And on 9/11? We fucking welcomed thousands of stranded Americans into our homes, because that’s what decent people do.
And what did we ask for in return? Nothing. We didn’t demand grovelling gratitude or threaten to “never help again” if you didn’t kiss our ass. That’s your toxic, transactional bullshit—not ours.
Enter Your Mango-Coloured Messiah: A Convicted Criminal With a Cult
So after all that, what do we get? Your country elects a spray-tanned sociopath with a vocabulary of a Grade 3 dropout, and suddenly we’re the bad guys? You’ve got a convicted fraudster leading your country—a man who insults war heroes, mocks the disabled, and jerks off to the thought of authoritarian rule—and we’re the problem? You’ve got a party foaming at the mouth to gut democracy, roll back civil rights, and turn the U.S. into a theocratic shithole, but we’re the ones who should shut up?
Nah. Fuck that.
And to the Canadian Trump Bootlickers—Sit the Fuck Down
I can already hear the Canadian MAGA muppets shrieking, “Mind your own broken country!” Oh, sweetheart. If Canada were actually broken, it would be because of dumbass conservatives like you who take marching orders from a foreign conman.
Is Canada perfect? Of course not. But unlike you bootlicking clowns, we don’t rally behind leaders who openly admire fascists and flirt with the idea of rounding up immigrants. We don’t foam at the mouth over the idea of a “war on woke” while pretending climate change isn’t real. And we certainly don’t suck off billionaires while pretending trickle-down economics isn’t a scam.
You morons scream about freedom, but what you really mean is the freedom to be an ignorant, unvaccinated, gun-hoarding dipshit. The moment someone else—be it a woman, an immigrant, or a person of colour—wants the same freedom you enjoy? Oh no, suddenly that’s tyranny. Fuck off with that hypocrisy.
Canada Isn’t Broken—You Just Can’t Handle Reality
What do we actually have in Canada? Universal health care. Sensible gun laws. A social safety net that, while imperfect, at least tries to keep people from starving in the streets.
Meanwhile, in your MAGA utopia, you can literally go bankrupt because you got cancer. You send kids to school in bulletproof backpacks because you refuse to do anything about mass shootings. You’re so brainwashed by billionaires that you think raising the minimum wage is worse than cutting taxes for a corporation that made $100 billion last quarter.
And you have the fucking gall to call us broken?
Mind My Own Business? I Fucking Wish
Oh, I’d love to. Really, I would. But here’s the problem—when you share a border with a country of over 300 million people, and that country elects a conspiracy-loving, anti-science lunatic to power, it becomes my business.
When your president guts economic, military, and trade alliances that help keep the world stable? That’s my business. When your leader openly muses about invading sovereign countries—including ours? That’s definitely my business.
And when a bunch of dumbfuck Canadians start acting like America’s the blueprint for success, despite all evidence to the contrary? That’s all of our business.
We’re Watching, and We’re Not Impressed
So, dear Trump cultists, both American and Canadian: we’re onto you. We see your bullshit, your hypocrisy, your complete detachment from reality. And we’re not buying a single second of it.
We’re your neighbours, your allies, your friends—but we’re not your doormats. We’re polite, but we’re not fucking stupid. And right now? We’re watching. Closely.
Warmest regards,
A Canadian Who’s Had Enough of Your Bullshit
The U.S. Department of Defense has added additional color to the mysterious nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon test China conducted over a year ago, saying that it “likely demonstrated” the People’s Republic of China’s capacity to field this capability.
The test made headlines that year for demonstrating the use of a fractional orbital bombardment (FOB) system capable of flying “around the world,” as now-retired Air Force General John Hyten described it, by staying in orbit for as long as the user deems necessary before re-entering the atmosphere with immense kinetic energy and gliding to its target. In official documents released on November 29, the Pentagon detailed what is presently known about China’s FOB-capable hypersonic weapon, going so far as to say that the missile traveled approximately 24,854 miles (40,000 kilometers) during the July 2021 test.
THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF EXTREME HEAT LEADING TO MORE FOSSIL FUEL USE
“A new report illustrates a concerning dynamic: Record heat last year pushed countries to use more planet-warming fossil fuels to cool things down.
In 2024, global energy demand grew by a little over 2 percent, almost twice as much as the average annual increase over the previous 10 years. This trend held across the board: Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and nuclear all had an uptick in demand. Most of the global growth was concentrated in nations with emerging and developing economies, led by China and India.”
In case anyone had doubts what the anti-gov’t Trump world looks like wrt national security the president and his stellar appointees are hard at work undermining it.
It’s difficult to discern if the biggest problem is incompetence or evil intent but the repeated demonstration of both at the same time is causing outrage fatigue around the world.
Once you digest what is happening it gets even worse when you realize our only possibility of rescue has to come from a Congress controlled by Republicans who are terrified into immobility by the thought of being “primaried” by someone even nuttier.
You may think we’re doing ok but, if so, you’re wrong.
BIODIVERSITY LOSS IN ALL SPECIES AND EVERY ECOSYSTEM LINKED TO HUMANS
“Sweeping synthesis of 2,000 global studies leaves no doubt about scale of problem and role of humans. The exhaustive global analysis leaves no doubt about the devastating impact humans are having on Earth, according to researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag) and the University of Zurich. The study – which accounted for nearly 100,000 sites across all continents – found that human activities had resulted in “unprecedented effects on biodiversity”, according to the paper, published in Nature.”
Tufts University Student with valid green card detained for her speech, arrested in Somerville, Massachusetts and now held with no criminal charges filed in Louisiana.
At some point US Citizens that believe in the rule of law will speak up.
“It looked like a kidnapping,” said Michael Mathis, a 32-year-old software engineer whose surveillance camera captured the arrest. “They approach her and start grabbing her with their faces covered. They’re covering their faces. They’re in unmarked vehicles.”
It is an embarrassment to be a US Citizen these days.
“An immigration crackdown ordered by the administration of US President Donald Trump is rattling the global research community, with high-profile detentions and deportations of academics stoking fears even for travellers with valid entry documents. Some researchers outside the US who spoke to Nature are reconsidering plans to travel to the country. And scientists and students in the US who aren’t citizens are weighing up their travel plans for fear that they won’t be allowed back in if they leave. “The anxiety is palpable,” says US immigration lawyer Jonathan Grode, who says he is fielding at least 20 calls a day from clients who ask if it is safe for them to travel.”
More information on the kidnapped Tufts student, turns out that the Trump administration violated a court order that required 48 hours notice to the court, if she was to be removed from Massachusetts. Seems she is guilty of co-authoring an op-ed in a Tufts student newspaper that amplified a vote in the student senate group calling on the university to engage with student demands to cut ties with Israel.
So much for free speech and due process, is this what Trump voters signed up for?
How’s this for a silver lining. The personal auto industry market has to shrink for multiple reasons so instead of a declining oil energy supply forcing changes in personal auto use and production Donald’s tariff tax chaos simply makes vehicles more expensive and reduces the work force in that industry. It’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make.
There was a time when talented people from around the World wanted to come to the US to study and this was a huge benefit for the US. Trump’s silly policies will be a boon for Canada and Europe where these talented individuals will choose to study and work.
My dad was a resevoir engineer who worked for Aramco then later in Kern County for Richfield. A conservative Republican intellectual who grew up in citrus farming country. We thought people who knew stuff and how to do stuff were cool. Can’t move the dials to fit what you want to see. The whole range of language needed to describe boundaries of uncertainty was maddening for us kids but it turns out that basic level of reasoning and language is needed to do stuff and make stuff.
And now we have a president who speaks the language a significant portion of the country understands. A language unhinged from reason.
“now we have a president who speaks the language a significant portion of the country understands”
Yeh…wears a red hat, holds up the middle finger and yells “F_ck you everyone.” even Canada.
ARCTIC SEA ICE HITS LOWEST PEAK IN SATELLITE RECORD
“This year’s Arctic sea ice peak is the lowest in the 47-year satellite record, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said Thursday, as Earth continues to swelter under the mounting effects of human-driven climate change. The record-low Arctic maximum extent follows a near-record-low minimum extent of sea ice in the Antarctic, where it is now summer.”
US drops to lowest position ever in World Happiness Report
https://www.semafor.com/article/03/20/2025/us-drops-to-lowest-position-ever-in-world-happiness-report
in the previous open thread Hideaway posted this chart with no links to the underlying data or anything else to say whether this is primary energy or electricity generation. He did say it was “what’s actually happening in the world…”:
Maybe India…percentage of electrical generation by source. Ends 2017, so is now old news.
https://iced.niti.gov.in/energy/electricity/generation
Hey Islandboy,
Just wanted to say thanks for your updates on EVs. Great information in your late post in the last thread. I’m glad to be able to take advantage of your tracking and sharing of key updates.
Islandboy, here is the caption from below that chart from Sintef.
“Percentage distributions of a variety of power generation plants plotted against global aluminium production. Data taken from World Aluminium.”
From here…
https://blog.sintef.com/energy/aluminium-electrolysis-using-inert-anodes/
It’s about the energy source used as a percentage of world Aluminium production. It is not as you are trying to make out about total world electricity production, and if you want to re-read my prior posts, I put up the graph in terms of world Aluminium production…
Hideaway. As you have pointed out coal is is big for global aluminum production, and lets add to the list metallurgic coal for iron/steel production.
People have said that the world is not prosperous enough to forsake inexpensive energy like coal, and whichever country uses it without hesitation will have a competitive advantage for industrial output… from steel to data processing. And that is true unless there was a big economic penalty applied globally to coal associated production…which is not going to happen.
China is a great example of the status of things.
Coal consumption has dropped from 86 to 54% of total primary energy consumption since 1965, but nonetheless the total Chinese coal consumption has increased almost 20 fold over that period.
You can see this displayed very well about 1/2 way down the page with side by side graphs-
https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/china?country=~CHN
Coal isn’t going to fade away anytime soon, globally.
Not until it becomes hard to find, and/or population begins to significantly decline.
People will put energy availability and the prosperity it allows over climate every day of the year.
Intense global heating is baked in the cake folks.
The US coal consumption has dropped precipitously over the last 25 years, now providing less electricity than solar and wind combined (about 17% of total generation).
Now the US net imports most of its aluminum consumption.
The imports come over 1/2 from Canada, where aluminum is created with 96% hydroelectric source of electricity.
On the other hand places with some economic strength are displacing coal with wind and solar to a considerable degree.
Good chart on this here-
“The U.S. hit a major energy-transition milestone last year: For the first time ever, it produced more electricity from wind and solar than from coal.
Over half of U.S. states (28) now get more power from breeze-blown turbines and sun-soaked photovoltaic panels than they do from polluting, planet-warming coal”
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/chart-states-more-power-wind-solar-coal
Hickory …. This is a fallacy, promoted over and over again…
“On the other hand places with some economic strength are displacing coal with wind and solar to a considerable degree.”
Which of these places with some economic strength are totally making and installing their own solar and wind from energy used in their own country??
Answer is none. They all are importing all the solar, wind and or components of them from countries with cheap fossil fueled production. The Aluminium frames and Aluminium rails the panels sit on (on rooftops) all come from the newer coal burning smelters.
Looking at any one country, or group of countries for ‘renewable’ installations misses the big picture that the world as a whole is still increasing fossil fuel additions faster (in TWh) than renewable installations on a decadal time scales.
It’s only the longer term that counts as the mines have to be built and factories constructed, all by fossil fuels before the raw materials can be gathered and concentrated to be put together as a solar panel. Growth of ‘renewables’ in the future can only happen with more mines and factories first to provide the raw materials..
I acknowledge that much of the solar and wind buildout in places like the US is coming from energy consumption in China, and that just over 50% of the energy in China does come from coal.
And that is just one of the reasons why why I pointed out that overall fossil fuel consumption won’t decline until people can’t afford it, simply can’t get it (depletion, trade wars, embargoes etc), or population declines.
I’m not sure why it matters if wind or solar systems use fossil energy in the build as these cleaner industries build capacity since they both seem to have positive energy and dollar payback in a fraction of their useful life. Did it matter if we used horses to build the first tractor factories?
Also a major component of their fossil energy “cost” is in aluminum smelting which is trivially low-energy to recycle especially in an “energy farm” system where the “worn out” material is not dispersed over a wide area.
Another issue missing in this discussion is that it really doesn’t matter if a small fraction of today’s coal production continues for centuries as long as it is below what the atmosphere can absorb. Today, with carbon essentially not regulated in world coal production, metal processing only accounts for about 10% of total fossil fuel burning.
JJHMAN … ” as these cleaner industries build capacity since they both seem to have positive energy and dollar payback in a fraction of their useful life.”
No they don’t when ‘back-up is also included. Also please don’t point to any research that has ‘boundaries’ as evidence. For heavy industrial uses, they clearly don’t stack up as I’ve often given the example of what they are NOT doing!!
Hideaway- in the real world where of hundreds of utilities and dozens of countries have decided to deploy solar and/or wind they have done so because they have found that the economic/energy equation is very favorable compared to other energy sources.
These global utilities and countries are not involved in an endeavor that doesn’t pencil out, despite your tunnel vision on this topic. Most are not trying to come with a 100% deployment, rather they will push until the point at which they find it optimal for their particular scenario/asset mix.
-“Renewable energy sources accounted for almost 90% of new electrical generating capacity in the United States added in the first nine months of 2024, with solar accounting for 78% of new capacity.”
-“Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023. “.
-“Brazil added 11 GW of new [electrical generating] capacity in 2024, 91% of which were solar and wind.”
-“New Delhi, 02 May 2024: Renewable energy (RE) sources contributed to 71 per cent of the ~26GW of power generation capacity that India added in FY 2023-2024”
It all could have been coal instead.
Hickory, you do realise that all these numbers get deliberately exaggerated don’t you?
“New Delhi, 02 May 2024: Renewable energy (RE) sources contributed to 71 per cent of the ~26GW of power generation capacity that India added in FY 2023-2024”
An installed capacity of 1GW of renewables with a capacity factor of 25-40% (solar/wind) is not equal to 1 GW of coal or gas with a 90%+ capacity factor, yet it’s sold to the public like it is….
Here is what’s happening in Australia with new large scale solar projects despite all the hype, from the Clean Energy Council…
I’m pretty sure that all of the utilities who are involved in these deployments know the difference between capacity and generation. Intimately.
And yes, I do as well.
Hey Hideaway
It looks like annual electrical generation in Australia will reach a milestone right around year 2030 with nationwide electricity provided by Solar equaling that provided by Coal combustion.
And still you will have just barely scratched the surface on possibility.
Just 10 years ago coal was roughly 73% and solar 2%.
Hideaway,
If we look at total electrical generation capacity for coal and natural in the US and compare it to total net generation by coal and natural gas power plants, we find something very different from 90% capacity utilization. In the US in 2023 total coal and natural gas power plant nameplate capacity was 765.7 GW which would be 6708 TWh if operated at 100% capacity and 6037 TWh at 90% capacity. Actual power output from natural gas and coal power plants in 2023 was 2481 TWh in the US, about 37% of nameplate power capacity of coal and natural gas power plants.
See https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.php
Thanks, Hickory. You answered better than I could have.
The whole topic of ‘renewables’ costs is incredibly complex and skipping over the details, makes anything look possible. It’s only delving deeply into what’s happening that reality is seen.
You guys can keep pointing to areas where “renewables” are growing all over the place due to grants, subsidies, and mandates, all according to green agendas about climate change, but it doesn’t change the facts that fossil fuel use is at record highs.
There is no transition happening, as all the renewables have become cheaper because they are being built with the cheap source of fossil fuels and have reached economies of scale in production. Meanwhile fossil fuel use keeps rising.
In Australia, the electricity bills keep growing well above the rate of official inflation, despite all the “cheap” solar power now going into the grid. The system is more inefficient than it was previously, as we have all this new generation installed, yet have many times a year when the old is needed to operate at maximum capacity. Adding more batteries and/pumped hydro just adds more cost.
Reality also tells us new coal power plants are being built as captive plants for Aluminium smelters and nickel refineries, keeping these input costs to the ‘renewable’ revolution down.
No-one anywhere is building these captive power plants from just solar, wind and batteries as it’s too expensive to do, and would only provide expensive materials to build solar, wind and batteries with.
Reality is that if we were to have a magnitude more ‘renewables’ in the system, world wide, fossil fuel use to build it all will have to rise greatly. This will make everything much worse for the natural environment, with a lot more mines, more burning of carbon, more plastics manufactured from fossil fuels, all to the detriment of every other species and the climate of the planet.
Hideaway
I think this is the best and most important point you have made on energy system diversification- “much worse for the natural environment, with a lot more mines”
It is true that certain mineral are used much more extensively in nuclear, PV, wind, batteries, EV’s than in energy systems that don’t use these technologies.
Copper, Uranium, Lithium, Graphite, etc.
It goes right to heart of the conundrum- what is good for the human enterprise of growth, prosperity and ‘progress’, or even simply stability of current economic systems, is bad for the biosphere and the myriad of residual creatures we ‘share’ the earth with. No doubt about it.
However I assert that the policy of forgoing energy system upgrade and adjustment is not going to get you any votes or takers since the lack of action is a certain rapid path to energy poverty. People all around the world aren’t going to look energy poverty in face without putting up a big effort to at least slow the inevitable contraction that comes with depletion. That is certain… even if it still is an eventual losing battle.
And people sure don’t like the vulnerability of being held hostage to distant or adversarial energy suppliers.
Things look different to places (something like a hundred countries) in the world who are already net importers of energy than perhaps to someone from your country.
So, I went over to the Our World in Data web site and found this web page:
https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
where I found the chart below. It is obviously not the same thing. The chart posted by Hideaway does not show any contribution from wind or solar. Why? The chart below shows solar on a trajectory to overtake hydro as the third largest source of electricity globally by the end of this decade.
Another thing I find curious about the chart posted by Hideaway is where on earth was hydro contributing 60% of energy (of any kind) in 1990 only to fall by 30% between 1990 and 2020?
Oh dear, this is all we need right now.
THERE COULD BE BILLIONS MORE PEOPLE ON EARTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
“There could be billions more people living on Earth than currently thought, according to a new study which claims rural figures worldwide could be vastly underestimated. Currently, the UN estimates the world population to be about 8.2 billion, which is projected to peak at over 10 billion by the mid-2080. However, research, published in the journal Nature Communications, found that rural populations in these estimates could be undercounted anywhere between 53 per cent to 84 per cent over the study period between 1975 and 2010.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-03-significant-proportion-world-rural-population.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/nature-communications
The good news is that rural humans in underdeveloped societies don’t cause an iota of damage to the biosphere compared to urban dwellers in industrial societies have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
JJHMAN
that is ofcourse if you totally discount the deforestation
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/05/deforestation-africa
and the mass slaughter of endangered animals
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/05/survival-and-economics-complicate-the-drcs-bushmeat-and-wild-animal-trade/
I think it’s a more complex situation than either of our above comments suggest.
I did look at the articles you referenced above and it seemed that the problems identified were not related to indigenous peoples living traditional lifestyles but rather the result of industrial and commercial intruding into their worlds.
Humans are just to clever and short sighted to care for the world we live in. Giving “simple” societies the tools of industrialization is just as bad as us having them.
BYD’s 5-Minute EV Charging Breakthrough, Explained
The opening sentence!
On a Venezuelan deported by Trump.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/03/21/venezuelan-immigrants-deportations-gang-member-evidence/82570298007/
“My husband doesn’t even have tattoos,” she told USA TODAY. “It’s a kidnapping … What happened to them is a great injustice.”
We were once a nation of laws, we are looking more like Russia than the US lately. Not a good look.
Another excerpt from article linked:
Immigration-rights activist Kate Wheatcroft of the New York-based nonprofit Together & Free said her staff has identified about 50 deportees sent to El Salvador. Of those, 44 have no criminal record either in the U.S. or Venezuela, she said.
So of the 50 identified deportees, 44 have no criminal record that is 88% of the sample. The Trump administration should be sued by the ACLU on behalf of these people and their families.
It seems the Trump administration is deporting Venezuelans with tattoos with no further investigation. Seems their crime was having a tattoo.
“We were once a nation of laws, we are looking more like Russia than the US lately. Not a good look.”
I guess we should expect that, given that our dear leader’s role model is the dictator of Russia.
Agent Orange.
Assuming he is in charge. He denies it.
https://abc57.com/news/trump-says-he-didn-t-sign-proclamation-invoking-alien-enemies-act
Is he lying? Or maybe he isn’t signing the documents signed in his name? Or is his mind just gone?
The strange things he said about Biden pardons being null and void come to mind.
If his raving about Canada being the 51st state aren’t enough to invoke the 25th Amendment, this should be.
This is the document in question with his signature. It is dated March 20, 2025. He said this one day later.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-03-20/pdf/2025-04865.pdf
The banality of evil.
I’m 65 and never dreamed I’d watch my country die before my eyes, and not just because of Trump but because of the millions of servile toadies that support him.
This is way off topic Mike, but after reading your 3QD Cultural Apostate piece, I could relate to your sentiment that you didn’t leave film, rather film left you, but I was also left wondering if your movie repertoire, prior to your molt, included much international film? There are so many excellent ones, starting with the German film The Lives of Others by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, and Burnt By The Sun, from Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov. The U.S. is heading into new territory, but it is unfortunately following a well trodden path.
Thanks, Bob. Not much experience with foreign films here, though I suspect your assessments are correct. Watching movies is just not a thing I do anymore. Lots of documentaries on YouTube, though!
I agree to actually live through it is something different than what I expected.
I knew this was coming for a long time now, but one cannot predict exactly the ways in which it plays out.
For instance, the fact that Trump has so many supporters has to do with sheer demographics. Rural and conservative folk get the business of having kids done, while city dwellers delay, because of their crowded conditions and different lifestyle. So over long periods of time, the culture and demographics of city dwellers declines, while rural folk always come rearing back.
Even back in the 2000s during the Bush years, I knew there were lots of them, but I didn’t imagine they would last all the way until 2025. I now know better. They are going to last until 2050, 2075, 2100. And not living forever, but reproducing their own kind and culture.
I will never again underestimate just how much rednecks actually control America through their numbers.
Maybe EVs will save us. Just joking, I know we have gone beyond that point.
EARTH’S DRYLANDS EXPAND, AFFECTING BILLIONS AS CLIMATE WARMS
Drylands would likely expand in the U.S. Midwest, central Mexico, parts of Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina, the entire Mediterranean area, the Black Sea Coast, and southern Africa and southern Australia. There are no regions of the world that are expected to go from drylands to a more humid climate in the future.
https://phys.org/news/2025-03-earth-drylands-affecting-billions-climate.html
Meanwhile,
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS CARBON FOOTPRINT IS WORSE THAN COAL
“Liquified natural gas leaves a greenhouse gas footprint that is 33% worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account, according to a new Cornell study. “Natural gas and shale gas are all bad for the climate. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is worse,” said Robert Howarth, author of the study and the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. “LNG is made from shale gas, and to make it you must supercool it to liquid form and then transport it to market in large tankers. That takes energy.” The research, “The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Exported from the United States,” appears in Energy Science & Engineering.”
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-liquefied-natural-gas- carbon-footprint.html
Loadsofoil
You had some commentary in the last thread about duration of car ownership that I wasn’t following and am wondering if you could clarify.
What is the source for the note that new car owners keep a car for 4 years?
DC noted that he runs a car for at least 10 years, and you seemed to suggest that similar behavior would put auto manufactures out of business. However, the average age of light duty vehicles in the US in 2023 was 12.5 years. What am I missing?
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/average-age-of-light-vehicles-in-the-us-hits-record-high.html
As an aside, I’m with DC. The last two vehicles that we’ve gotten rid of have both gone straight to the junkyard. A 14 year old Honda and a 22 year old Subaru. Both just rusted away from the salt used on the winter roads here in the NE US.
The used car market is bigger than the new car market. In other words, most cars on the road aren’t being driven by the original owner.
Right.
However, fleet turnover is a function of how long the entire fleet is still on the road. Unless drivers start abandoning ICE vehicles with remaining life in favor of EVs, this is a critical parameter.
T Hill,
It is possible that as the TCO of EVs decreases that ICEVs will see a a shorter life before being removed from the road, but my EV transition models just assume the average time to removing an old ICEV from the road remains constant and that fewer new ICEVs will be sold over time. I also do not include the possibility of autonomous EVs becoming ubiquitous and have become more and more skeptical of Musk’s claims as he seems to be running a big con on the Autonomous vehicle front.
Thanks for the insight DC. Your model assumption makes sense to me.
I know you’ve commented about owning a Tesla, but I have never trusted him even before the last year. Too many lies and crazy behavior from the boss to start with, but the over reliance on camera based sensing has never made any sense to me. Compare that against the lidar, radar and cameras used by Waymo and I know which I would want to trust my personal safety to all other things being equal.
T Hill,
You were and are correct to be skeptical. Unfortunately I was fooled by his bravado and confidence, he is a very good con man. Or I am far too naive. Perhaps both are true.
The increase in percentage of coal for aluminum reflects the rise of China, like so many other recent trends. The question is how fast China will decarbonize its electricity industry.
I’m going to try a little thought experiment here.
Let’s pretend that auto loans were the entire US economy. $1.7 trillion economy. To keep it simple we will say the average interest rate on these loans is 7%.
How do you pay principal plus interest on the loans?
Only way to do it is to expand the amount of auto loans exponentially. With each and every new loan made it is required that even more loans are made. Otherwise when payments are made the money supply shrinks making the entirety of all the loans unplayable.
This is how the actual economy works when we include everything that makes up the economy.
In the long run the banks are toast. Not just a handful of banks. All of them. Every single bank has loaned out money that can only be repaid by banks loaning more money at an exponential rate. Even if there was just one bank the problem still exists. Even if central banks were the only banks the same problem still exists. Which is exactly why central bank digital currencies make no difference. If central banks were the only banks they’d be the ones loaning out money that can’t be repaid instead of the commercial banks. Makes no difference.
As long as the supply of energy is increasing it’s easy for the banks to make loans.
Btw currently Chinese banks aren’t doing a whole lot of lending. This is under a top down command economy. Where the government says hey make loans or else. Chinese banks are buying safety and liquidity in government bonds instead of making loans into the economy. Banks are more than willing to accept less than 2% on a government bond instead of lending into the economy.
Anybody believing that we have a decade or two before things really start falling apart isn’t paying attention. Those Chinese banks work just like any western bank. The loans they have already made require exponential loan growth in order to be paid back.
The problem lies within the interest expense. But who, or what bank is going to lend money out for free? Even one time or monthly fees that banks charge are not much different than the interest expense. In order to pay that fee or charge there has to be exponential growth in loans otherwise the money to pay those fees and charges was never loaned into existence in the first place and there would never be enough money to payback debt plus the fees and charges.
Energy could stay on some sort of a plateau and we’d still have a collapsing economy. Because debt requires growth in energy to be repaid.
HHH
You’re completely correct. It isn’t just energy but energy growth that is required. We’re well into contraction now. Things will be breaking much sooner than people think. The UK is a poster child for it as they were the first to industrialize and are now a basket case of run down impoverished cities.
HHH
I’m not following your thought experiment.
I take from this post and others previously that you follow the school of thought of the endogenous money model. Yes?
Completely separate from that, you suggest an underlying link between bank lending and the globally available energy supply. A link that you have previously noted is not acknowledged within the banking industry.
I am not agreeing or disagreeing, just trying to follow your logic. Can you point to any more formal document our source for your various points? Something that perhaps shows your math?
T Hill
Tim Garrett runs the numbers
https://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/physics-of-the-economy.html
Basically money is created by bank lending that is collateralized by productivity which is leveraged by energy. It’s a simple concept. If banks stop lending it’s because they fear that the money will not be repaid with interest which requires real economic growth to create the new loans. No growth no loans no money.
Garrett tests it with a direct energy to GDP equation.
Banks aren’t energy experts. They do have a good feel on when the economy isn’t doing so well or when it is doing well. And they pull back on lending when necessary. Or heavily lend to the government instead of the economy. All they know is the economy isn’t doing well.
There is no math. When bank lends out money to build say a warehouse. They are absolutely assuming that the owner will be able to lease out the building for X amount of rent per month which will cover the mortgage.
Banks literally just assume that there will be growth and that loan they made will be profitable. Based on previous growth. There are lots of airports and hotels and you name it that are being built that won’t even be needed or used 10-20 years from now.
There is a myth that we will just continue on and just have to make do with less and less, year after year.
What I’m saying is that it all falls apart. Borrowing money from the future and paying it back monthly falls apart. And not for just the unlucky few. It falls apart for everyone.
What could the average person afford to pay for a house, a car, groceries, or a tank of gas if it wasn’t possible to borrow from the future anymore? How many average people would even have a job?
When you have to repay more than you actually borrowed, then growth in the energy supply and money supply have to happen or else the debt is unplayable.
Our government isn’t printing money. They are just going deeper into debt. As long as commercial banks keep creating dollars via loans. There is enough money, dollars available, for some entity to buy the debt. The FED doesn’t create dollars.
What the Fed does is it creates bank reserves that are denominated in dollars. Then the Fed swaps its reserves for the collateral which is government bonds and mortgage backed securities from commercial banks.
No matter how many times it’s repeated when the Fed does QE it’s not providing liquidity into either the markets or the economy. And QT doesn’t drain liquidity.
All QE does is move collateral off the commercial banks balance sheet onto the Fed’s balance sheet. Which works when there is an expanding energy supply. Commercial banks have a cleaned up balance sheet and are able to lend again. But only if the energy is available for them to make loans into the economy.
Stock markets tell you absolutely nothing about any economy. Just look at Germany’s stock market. It’s at all time highs. But eventually this will catch up to the banks that are doing the lending to the corporations that are doing the buybacks. In the long run all those loans are going to turn into bad loans.
We will get companies fire selling their stock and banks eating the losses before all is said and done.
I’m not saying it has to be this year or next. But it’s going to happen.
“I’m not saying it has to be this year or next. But it’s going to happen.”
I am sure you are right on this in a massive way…as I have been since the late 1970’s. I’ve been sure we are getting closer to the system collapse every year.
Collectively, the ability to kick the can down the road is astounding.
Let me know when the last democracy turns out its lights. We’ll know we are deep in the midst of it then.
But then you have this pesky issue of loan losses which throw a wrench into things – and cause endogenous money to become exogenous.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4606446
Rgds
WP
HHH
I’m in agreement banks don’t know why their economic indicators are bad. The route we know is energy.
My go to is a lobsterman in Maine. The banks only look at his net profit to determine if he’s a good credit risk. His net profit is derived from his cost of operation that is highly contingent on fuel costs. It’s a double edge sword. As fuel cost increases it increases his bait cost, operating, and transportation cost. Simultaneously reducing market demand as people adjust to higher energy costs. The banks might not recognize the amplification of higher energy costs but they do recognize that he can’t afford new traps this year. If you reverse the situation with lower energy costs profit soars and cash flow opens the credit window.
Decades ago, the collapse of the cod fishery off Newfoundland was a huge issue in Canada. I was pretty young at the time, but there was a newspaper cartoon I saw at the time that stuck with me:
The image was of a desperate fisherman, standing out in the water, pleading with the fish. And he is showing them a graph from his bank with a line going sharply upwards
And the fish are saying to him in response, “But we can’t grow that fast!”
Kind of sums it all up.
“put Trump’s face on the $100 bill, create a new $250 bill with Trump’s face adorning it, make Trump’s birthday (June 14) a federal holiday, rename Dulles Airport in Trump’s honor and carve Trump’s face on Mount Rushmore.”
Wingpawn ideas
As Trump layoffs have hollowed out key weather monitoring staff amid storm season……….
RECORD 2024 TEMPERATURES ACCELERATE ICE LOSS, RISE IN SEA LEVELS
“Record greenhouse gas levels helped bring temperatures to an all-time high in 2024, accelerating glacier and sea ice loss, raising sea levels and edging the world closer to a key warming threshold, the U.N. weather body said on Wednesday. Annual average mean temperatures stood at 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels last year, surpassing the previous 2023 record by 0.1C, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual climate report.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/record-2024-temperatures-accelerate-ice-loss-rise-sea-levels-un-weather-body-2025-03-19/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/07/trump-layoffs-nws
Interesting article.
With Trump attacking the few blue countries left on the map, how long before they turn red as well?
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/ceo-corner/mexico-us-canada-trade-china-ceo-perspective/
I suppose some will see this is good news, maybe they’re right?
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO PLATEAU THROUGH 2027
“Coal 2024 – the new edition of the IEA’s annual coal market report, which analyses the latest trends and updates medium-term forecasts – shows that global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It is poised to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. According to the report, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027 as renewable energy sources play a greater role in generating power and coal consumption levels off in China.”
https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-is-set-to-plateau-through-2027
Typical Canadian view from Jim Elliot… message to our American MAGA neighbors …
Dear 77,301,997 Trump-Loving, Conspiracy-Huffing, Rage-Addicted Americans (And the Canadian Dumbfucks Who Worship Them)
Oh, hey there. Sit down. Read this. Try not to cry.
Listen, I get it. You think we’re just a bunch of polite, snow-loving, maple syrup-chugging pushovers up here in Canada. You’ve been misled. We’re polite, sure. But only until we get pissed off. And you, dear MAGA cultists, are testing our fucking patience.
Let’s clear up a few things about who we actually are, because you seem to be confused. We’re a country that gives a shit about our elders, our kids, and our most vulnerable. We actually value education instead of treating it like some left-wing brainwashing experiment. We don’t get all horny over billionaires hoarding wealth while our neighbours die in poverty. We don’t fantasize about returning to the 1940s, and we sure as hell don’t think the most corrupt sack of shit on the planet was personally chosen by God. Who does that? Oh right—you.
But let’s go deeper.
We’ve Always Been Your Best Fucking Neighbour—So What the Hell Happened?
Time and time again, Canada has been there when the U.S. needed us.
World War I? We were in the trenches before you even showed up. World War II? We were storming the beaches of Normandy while you were still debating whether or not to help. Korea, Afghanistan, peacekeeping missions—you name it, we’ve had your back. We sent our firefighters to help when California burned. When Katrina wiped out New Orleans, we were there. And on 9/11? We fucking welcomed thousands of stranded Americans into our homes, because that’s what decent people do.
And what did we ask for in return? Nothing. We didn’t demand grovelling gratitude or threaten to “never help again” if you didn’t kiss our ass. That’s your toxic, transactional bullshit—not ours.
Enter Your Mango-Coloured Messiah: A Convicted Criminal With a Cult
So after all that, what do we get? Your country elects a spray-tanned sociopath with a vocabulary of a Grade 3 dropout, and suddenly we’re the bad guys? You’ve got a convicted fraudster leading your country—a man who insults war heroes, mocks the disabled, and jerks off to the thought of authoritarian rule—and we’re the problem? You’ve got a party foaming at the mouth to gut democracy, roll back civil rights, and turn the U.S. into a theocratic shithole, but we’re the ones who should shut up?
Nah. Fuck that.
And to the Canadian Trump Bootlickers—Sit the Fuck Down
I can already hear the Canadian MAGA muppets shrieking, “Mind your own broken country!” Oh, sweetheart. If Canada were actually broken, it would be because of dumbass conservatives like you who take marching orders from a foreign conman.
Is Canada perfect? Of course not. But unlike you bootlicking clowns, we don’t rally behind leaders who openly admire fascists and flirt with the idea of rounding up immigrants. We don’t foam at the mouth over the idea of a “war on woke” while pretending climate change isn’t real. And we certainly don’t suck off billionaires while pretending trickle-down economics isn’t a scam.
You morons scream about freedom, but what you really mean is the freedom to be an ignorant, unvaccinated, gun-hoarding dipshit. The moment someone else—be it a woman, an immigrant, or a person of colour—wants the same freedom you enjoy? Oh no, suddenly that’s tyranny. Fuck off with that hypocrisy.
Canada Isn’t Broken—You Just Can’t Handle Reality
What do we actually have in Canada? Universal health care. Sensible gun laws. A social safety net that, while imperfect, at least tries to keep people from starving in the streets.
Meanwhile, in your MAGA utopia, you can literally go bankrupt because you got cancer. You send kids to school in bulletproof backpacks because you refuse to do anything about mass shootings. You’re so brainwashed by billionaires that you think raising the minimum wage is worse than cutting taxes for a corporation that made $100 billion last quarter.
And you have the fucking gall to call us broken?
Mind My Own Business? I Fucking Wish
Oh, I’d love to. Really, I would. But here’s the problem—when you share a border with a country of over 300 million people, and that country elects a conspiracy-loving, anti-science lunatic to power, it becomes my business.
When your president guts economic, military, and trade alliances that help keep the world stable? That’s my business. When your leader openly muses about invading sovereign countries—including ours? That’s definitely my business.
And when a bunch of dumbfuck Canadians start acting like America’s the blueprint for success, despite all evidence to the contrary? That’s all of our business.
We’re Watching, and We’re Not Impressed
So, dear Trump cultists, both American and Canadian: we’re onto you. We see your bullshit, your hypocrisy, your complete detachment from reality. And we’re not buying a single second of it.
We’re your neighbours, your allies, your friends—but we’re not your doormats. We’re polite, but we’re not fucking stupid. And right now? We’re watching. Closely.
Warmest regards,
A Canadian Who’s Had Enough of Your Bullshit
Amen to that.
Amen again.
https://www.twz.com/more-details-on-chinas-exotic-orbital-hypersonic-weapon-come-to-light
The U.S. Department of Defense has added additional color to the mysterious nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon test China conducted over a year ago, saying that it “likely demonstrated” the People’s Republic of China’s capacity to field this capability.
The test made headlines that year for demonstrating the use of a fractional orbital bombardment (FOB) system capable of flying “around the world,” as now-retired Air Force General John Hyten described it, by staying in orbit for as long as the user deems necessary before re-entering the atmosphere with immense kinetic energy and gliding to its target. In official documents released on November 29, the Pentagon detailed what is presently known about China’s FOB-capable hypersonic weapon, going so far as to say that the missile traveled approximately 24,854 miles (40,000 kilometers) during the July 2021 test.
Oh great, another Tipping Point?
THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF EXTREME HEAT LEADING TO MORE FOSSIL FUEL USE
“A new report illustrates a concerning dynamic: Record heat last year pushed countries to use more planet-warming fossil fuels to cool things down.
In 2024, global energy demand grew by a little over 2 percent, almost twice as much as the average annual increase over the previous 10 years. This trend held across the board: Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and nuclear all had an uptick in demand. Most of the global growth was concentrated in nations with emerging and developing economies, led by China and India.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/climate/extreme-heat-emissions-energy-trends.html
How Donald Trump’s tariffs are wreaking chaos in the British metal industry
UK steel and aluminium are under pressure. Tungsten might see a renaissance however…
https://news.sky.com/story/how-donald-trumps-tariffs-are-wreaking-chaos-in-the-british-metal-industry-13331951
In case anyone had doubts what the anti-gov’t Trump world looks like wrt national security the president and his stellar appointees are hard at work undermining it.
It’s difficult to discern if the biggest problem is incompetence or evil intent but the repeated demonstration of both at the same time is causing outrage fatigue around the world.
Once you digest what is happening it gets even worse when you realize our only possibility of rescue has to come from a Congress controlled by Republicans who are terrified into immobility by the thought of being “primaried” by someone even nuttier.
You may think we’re doing ok but, if so, you’re wrong.
BIODIVERSITY LOSS IN ALL SPECIES AND EVERY ECOSYSTEM LINKED TO HUMANS
“Sweeping synthesis of 2,000 global studies leaves no doubt about scale of problem and role of humans. The exhaustive global analysis leaves no doubt about the devastating impact humans are having on Earth, according to researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag) and the University of Zurich. The study – which accounted for nearly 100,000 sites across all continents – found that human activities had resulted in “unprecedented effects on biodiversity”, according to the paper, published in Nature.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/26/human-link-biodiversity-loss-species-ecosystems-climate-pollution-eawag-study-nature-aoe
US has devolved to an authoriarian state.
Tufts University Student with valid green card detained for her speech, arrested in Somerville, Massachusetts and now held with no criminal charges filed in Louisiana.
At some point US Citizens that believe in the rule of law will speak up.
https://apnews.com/article/tufts-student-detained-massachusetts-immigration-6c3978da98a8d0f39ab311e092ffd892
“It looked like a kidnapping,” said Michael Mathis, a 32-year-old software engineer whose surveillance camera captured the arrest. “They approach her and start grabbing her with their faces covered. They’re covering their faces. They’re in unmarked vehicles.”
It is an embarrassment to be a US Citizen these days.
Meanwhile,
‘ANXIETY IS PALPABLE’ AMID US BORDER CHECKS
“An immigration crackdown ordered by the administration of US President Donald Trump is rattling the global research community, with high-profile detentions and deportations of academics stoking fears even for travellers with valid entry documents. Some researchers outside the US who spoke to Nature are reconsidering plans to travel to the country. And scientists and students in the US who aren’t citizens are weighing up their travel plans for fear that they won’t be allowed back in if they leave. “The anxiety is palpable,” says US immigration lawyer Jonathan Grode, who says he is fielding at least 20 calls a day from clients who ask if it is safe for them to travel.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00859-w?utm_source=Live+Audience&utm_campaign=bb666078b4-nature-briefing-daily-20250325&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b27a691814-bb666078b4-50701100
Doug,
It seems those with student visas in the US have had their rights revoked by Trump, they are not safe walking down the street it seems.
More information on the kidnapped Tufts student, turns out that the Trump administration violated a court order that required 48 hours notice to the court, if she was to be removed from Massachusetts. Seems she is guilty of co-authoring an op-ed in a Tufts student newspaper that amplified a vote in the student senate group calling on the university to engage with student demands to cut ties with Israel.
So much for free speech and due process, is this what Trump voters signed up for?
Dictator on day one is sounding quite apt.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/27/judge-explanation-tufts-student-rumeysa-ozturk-ice?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
How’s this for a silver lining. The personal auto industry market has to shrink for multiple reasons so instead of a declining oil energy supply forcing changes in personal auto use and production Donald’s tariff tax chaos simply makes vehicles more expensive and reduces the work force in that industry. It’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make.
Besides the chaotic effects on domestic drilling.
There was a time when talented people from around the World wanted to come to the US to study and this was a huge benefit for the US. Trump’s silly policies will be a boon for Canada and Europe where these talented individuals will choose to study and work.
My dad was a resevoir engineer who worked for Aramco then later in Kern County for Richfield. A conservative Republican intellectual who grew up in citrus farming country. We thought people who knew stuff and how to do stuff were cool. Can’t move the dials to fit what you want to see. The whole range of language needed to describe boundaries of uncertainty was maddening for us kids but it turns out that basic level of reasoning and language is needed to do stuff and make stuff.
And now we have a president who speaks the language a significant portion of the country understands. A language unhinged from reason.
“now we have a president who speaks the language a significant portion of the country understands”
Yeh…wears a red hat, holds up the middle finger and yells “F_ck you everyone.” even Canada.
ARCTIC SEA ICE HITS LOWEST PEAK IN SATELLITE RECORD
“This year’s Arctic sea ice peak is the lowest in the 47-year satellite record, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said Thursday, as Earth continues to swelter under the mounting effects of human-driven climate change. The record-low Arctic maximum extent follows a near-record-low minimum extent of sea ice in the Antarctic, where it is now summer.”
https://phys.org/news/2025-03-arctic-sea-ice-lowest-peak.html
New posts are up
https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-march-2025/
and
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-march-27-2025/