By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data, oil, for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to November 2024.
U.S. November oil production decreased by 122 kb/d to 13,314 kb/d, only 6 kb/d higher than December 2024. The largest decreases came from Texas, 70 kb/d, New Mexico 38 kb/d and the GOM 108 kb/d.
The dark blue graph, taken from the January 2025 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from December 2024 to December 2026. Output for December 2026 is expected to reach 13,622 kb/d. From December 2024 to December 2026 production is expected to grow by 165 kb/d. Most of the increase occurs in the last two months of 2026.
The light blue graph is the STEO’s projection for output to December 2026 for the Onshore L48. November Onshore L48 production decreased by 23 kb/d to 11,242 kb/d. From December 2024 to December 2026, production is expected to increase by 128 kb/d to 11,414 kb/d. Note how production is essentially flat starting in late 2025 to December 2026.
U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State
Listed above are the 12 US states with the largest oil production along with the Gulf of Mexico. Montana has been added to this table this month since its production exceeded Louisiana’s production and we wish to keep tracking Louisiana. These 12 states accounted for 85.9% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 13,314 kb/d in November 2024.
On a MoM basis, November oil production in these 12 states rose by 1 kb/d. On a YoY basis, US production increased by 33 kb/d.
State Oil Production Charts
Texas production decreased by 70 kb/d in November to 5,761 kb/d. YoY production is up by 103 kb/d.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs reported for each month, shifted forward by 10 months. So the 276 rigs operating in July 2023 have been shifted forward to May 2024. From February 2024 to July 2024, the rig count dropped from 312 in time shifted February 2024 to 256 in July 2024. That drop of 56 rigs has had no impact on production up to now.
From February 2024 to October, production rose even though the rig count continued to fall. However November production saw a drop, similar to July’s. Is this the first indication of a slower growth period for Texas oil production going forward.
According to the EIA, New Mexico’s November production dropped by 38 kb/d to 2,064 kb/d.
The blue graph is a production projection for Lea plus Eddy counties. These two counties account for close to 99% of New Mexico’s oil production. The difference between the October and November preliminary production data provided by the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division was used to make the projection. A 1% correction was added to the Lea plus Eddy projection to account for their approximate fraction of New Mexico’s oil production. The projection estimates November production decreased by 17 kb/d to 2,185 kb/d. The decrease is related to a November production decrease in Eddy county and is discussed further down in the Permian section.
Note how the four blue markers parallel the green markers at the beginning of March 2024. Lea County updated their production back to January 2023 which caused the projection to shift away from the EIA’s production. The gap between those four markers is close to 60 kb/d. Note how the blue markers almost parallel the EIA’s production starting in March 2024.
More oil production information for a few New Mexico and Texas counties is reviewed in the special Permian section further down.
November’s output increased by 41 kb/d to 1,197 kb/d. Production is down by 90 kb/d from the post pandemic peak of 1,287 kb/d. The North Dakota Department of Mineral resources reported November production was 1,221 kb/d.
According to this article, the Director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources expects oil production in the state to remain relatively steady for 2025 and the price of oil to remain steady for the near term.
“Anderson said he also expects the rig count and number of frac crews in 2025 to remain steady, with expected month to month fluctuations.
The rig count decreased slightly to start the year. He said a potential reason was related to the numerous mergers throughout the basin – new operators looking for capital efficiency gains.
“Mergers and acquisitions continue to occur, and it is expected that integrations of these companies will occur over the coming year,” Anderson said.“
Alaskaʼs November output rose by 12 kb/d to 439 kb/d while YoY production rose by 11 kb/d. The increase in production is an indication that summer maintenance is complete and production is recovering. Average weekly November production from Alaska EIA reports are almost the same at 438 kb/d while December is approaching 436 kb/d.
The Alaska Department of Natural Resources reports production of 14.335 million barrels of oil or 478 kb/d vs the EIA’s 436 kb/d. The difference could be that Alaska is also counting NGPLs as part of oil.
Alaska must have brought new fields online to consistently have YoY and monthly production gains which have broken away from the earlier dropping production trend red lines.
Coloradoʼs November oil production increased by 27 kb/d to 522 kb/d. Colorado began the year with 12 rigs but dropped to 10 during June, July and August and had 8 in operation October and November. In January only 6 rigs were operating. Will this slow the production increasing trend?
The majority of Colorado’s oil comes from the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin located in Weld county, according to this Article.
Oklahoma’s output in November rose by 12 kb/d to 404 kb/d. Production remains below the post pandemic July 2020 high of 491 kb/d and is down by 48 kb/d since May 2023. Output entered a slow declining phase in June 2023 but appears to be recovering.
Oklahoma’s rig count dropped from 40 in May to 30 in July. By the end of September 2024 there was an uptick to 41 operational rigs and has held steady at 41 from October to December. At the end of January there were 44 in operation. Will the increase in the rig count result in increasing oil production?
California’s declining production trend continues. November production dropped by 1 kb/d to 279 kb/d.
Wyoming’s oil production has been rebounding since March 2023. However the rebound was impacted by the January 2024 storm. Production peaked in February 2024 and is showing signs of being on a plateau.
November’s production rose by 6 kb/d to 294 kb/d. Note that production has almost recovered to the pre-Covid level of 302 kb/d.
In August Wyoming had 8 operational rigs. The rig count has slowly risen to 14 from November to January.
November’s production decreased by 5 kb/d to 184 kb/d. Utah had 9 oil rigs in operation from January to September 2024 but dropped to 8 in October through January.
Ohio has been added to the Louisiana chart because Ohio’s production has been slowly increasing since October 2021 and passed Louisiana in November 2023.
Louisiana’s output entered a slow decline phase in October 2022 and has continued to fall in November. November’s production dropped by 2 kb/d to 80 kb/d. As of January there are no oil rigs operating in Louisiana. Anybody have any thoughts on this and can it be confirmed?
Ohio’s November oil production rose by 13 kb/d to 120 kb/d, a new record high. The most recent Baker Hughes rig report shows one horizontal oil rigs operating in Ohio in December and January.
Montana’s oil production reached another new high and is possibly heading for 100 kb/d. November’s oil production added 6 kb/d to 86 kb/d and is now 6 kb/d higher than Louisiana’s.
GOM production dropped by 108 kb/d in November to 1,656 kb/d but is expected to rebound in December to 1,790 kb/d. It is possible that November’s decrease is simply continuing maintenance issues associated with the September Category 4 hurricane Helene.
The January 2025 STEO projection for the GOM output has been added to this chart. It projects production in December 2026 will be 5 kb/d than December 2024 at 1,785 kb/d.
A Different Perspective on US Oil Production
The combined oil output for the Big Two states Texas and New Mexico.
November’s production in the Big Two states decreased by a combined 108 kb/d to 7,825 kb/d and is 590 kb/d higher than January 2024
Oil production by The Rest
November’s oil production by The Rest rose by 82 kb/d to 3,394 kb/d and is 51 kb/d lower than November 2023.
The main takeaway from The Rest chart is that current production is below the high of October 2019 and is a significant loss that occurred during the Covid shut down and will not be readily recovered. Note that November 2024 production has now exceeded the Sept 2020 post covid rebound to 3,296 kb/d by 98 kb/d. Contributing to the rise is increased production from Colorado, Ohio and Montana along with a one month boost from North Dakota. Combined these four added 87 kb/d in November.
The OnShore L48 W/O the big three, Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota, shows production may be on a slowly increasing trend.
November’s OnShore L48 W/O the big three production increased by 41 kb/d to 2,197 kb/d, a new high. Colorado, Ohio and Montana contributed 46 kb/d to the increase.
Permian Basin Report by Main Counties and Districts
This special monthly Permian section was recently added to the US report because of a range of views on whether Permian production will continue to grow or will peak over the next year or two. The issue was brought into focus recently by two Goehring and Rozencwajg Report and Report2 which indicated that a few of the biggest Permian oil producing counties were close to peaking or past peak. Also comments by posters on this site have similar beliefs from hands on experience.
This section will focus on the four largest oil producing counties in the Permian, Lea, Eddy, Midland and Martin. It will track the oil and natural gas production and the associated Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) on a monthly basis. The data is taken from the state’s government agencies for Texas and New Mexico. Typically the data for the latest two or three months is not complete and is revised upward as companies submit their updated information. Note the natural gas production shown in the charts that is used to calculate the GOR is the gas coming from both the gas and oil wells.
Of particular interest will be the charts which plot oil production vs GOR for a county to see if a particular characteristic develops that indicates the field is close to entering or in the bubble point phase. While the GOR metric is best suited for characterizing individual wells, counties with closely spaced horizontal wells may display a behaviour similar to individual wells due to pressure cross talking . For further information on the bubble point and GOR, there are a few good thoughts on the intricacies of the GOR in an earlier POB comment and here. Also check this EIA topic on GOR.
New Mexico Permian
The total rig count in Lea and Eddy counties in the week ending January 31 is down 4 to 96 from the July count of 100 and has held steady for 6 weeks preceding January 31 when it increased by 4 to 96.
Lea county rigs have wandered between 52 and 46 since July to 49 at the end of January.
The Eddy county rig count has increased by 4 from 43 in October to 47 at the end of January. The increasing Eddy county oil production starting in June 2024 is due to the rise in the Eddy County rig count from 35 on October 27, 2023 to 55 in March 2024. See further down.
Lea and Eddy rig counts have stabilized in the 46 ± 3 range since October.
Lea County’s oil production appears to have entered a plateau phase in May at 1,294 kb/d and produced slightly more in August at 1,307 kb/d and dropped in November 1,287 kb/d.
Preliminary November data from New Mexico’s Oil Conservation Division (OCD) indicates Lea County’s oil production decreased by 6 kb/d to 1,153 kb/d. A projection for November’s final production estimates it will be closer to 1,287 kb/d, a decrease of 2 kb/d from October.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly rig chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months. So the 64 Rigs/wk operating in August 2023 have been time shifted forward to April 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completion and oil production.
Comparing the flattening oil production since May with the dropping time shifted rig count, indicates/implies the newer wells drilled since June had higher IPs to offset the decline associated with the fewer number of wells drilled by the declining rig count. The rising rig count since November may be able to slow the declining/flattening production in Lea County but the writing on the wall is saying that Lea County is close to peak production or may have passed it.
Note that rig counts are being used to project production as opposed to completions because very few extra DUCs are being completed at this time.
After much zigging and zagging, oil production in Lea county stabilized just below 1,100 kb/d in early 2023. Once production reached a new high in January 2023, production appeared to be on a plateau while the GOR started to increase rapidly to the right and entered the bubble point phase in July 2023.
Since July 2023 the Lea County GOR has continued to increase as production increased within a second semi-bounded GOR. This may indicate that the recent additional production is coming from a new bench/field since the GOR’s behaviour since August 2023 to March 2024 time frame appears once again to be in a semi bounded GOR phase accompanied with rising production.
The GOR moved out of the second semi-bounded GOR region in April and has continued to increase while production hit a new high in May 2024 and since appears to be in a plateau phase or slow decline. The GOR hit a new high of 3.47 in November and this is another indicator that Lea County may be close to or past peak production.
This zigging and zagging GOR pattern within a semi-bounded GOR while oil production increases to some stable level and then moves out to a higher GOR to the right has shown up in a number of counties. See a few additional cases below.
Eddy County’s oil production first peaked in February 2024 at 807 kb/d. After dropping for three months, the number of rigs and associated wells increased and so did oil production. In October the projected oil production increased by 25 kb/d to a new high of 891 kb/d. However November saw the first drop in production over the last six months. November production dropped by 14 kb/d to 877 kb/d.
From May to October production rose by 138 kb/d. Over that same time shifted rig period, 14 to 15 rigs were added to Eddy County and production rose. Was a new Tier 1 area/shelf discovered?
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the above weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by 8 months to roughly coincide with the increase in the production graph starting in November 2023.
Clearly the production rise up to October 2024 is closely associated with the rise in the rig count and associated well completions delayed by roughly 8 months. The November drop is the first clue that the production rise associated with increasing rigs is about to end. The flattening rig count starting in November implies that production in Eddy county is heading into a short term plateau phase before starting to decrease sometime in December or January.
The Eddy county GOR pattern is similar to Lea county except that Eddy broke out from the semi bounded range earlier and for a longer time and then added a second semi bounded GOR phase. For November production decreased by 14 kb/d to 873 kb/d and stayed within the second semi-bounded region.
The right hand red bar could possibly be placed closer to a GOR 5.35 which may better define the second Semi-Bounded GOR region.
Texas Permian
The Midland county rig count has been rising since July and is up 8 to 26 in January. The opposite is true for Martin county. On January 31, 25 rigs were operational, down 20 from 45 in July 2023.
Since the end of October drilling in the Midland and Martin counties has been very steady at 26 and 27 rigs, respectively, except for January 31 when Martin dropped to 25 and is now being reflected in its production.
Texas County Oil Production
The Texas RRC made significant revisions to its production data in their September report and those revisions now continue to affect the November projections in this update but to a lesser degree. The projections for this Texas update are almost back to being reasonable. However in a few cases the projections are still questionable.
Midland October oil production chart for comparison with updated November chart below.
For many months in previous posts Midland county’s oil production had been declining. The revisions in the RRC September update have turned the decline into rising production that exceeds the previous production peak of 699 kb/d in July 2023 which I didn’t think was correct and mentioned in the previous US post. See next chart.
The orange and green graphs show the oil production for Midland County as reported by the Texas RRC for October and November. The red graph uses the October and November data to project production as it would look after being updated over many months.
I think the increase in the projected production after May is related to the under reporting of production in the September data and its impact on the October results, especially after July. Comparing the current chart with the previous one, note that May 2024 production has dropped by 40 kb/d, 620 kb/d to 580 kb/d. Also, July 2023 is down by 11 kb/d and the projected November production is now lower than July 2023.
The post May production projection is not credible and hopefully will correct itself in the next data release. Considering that oil production from July 2023 to May 2024 followed the rig count graph, it is not unreasonable to question whether the production rise after May is believable. The intial RRC November data is showing higher production in November over October and this is reflected in the projection. However I think it is on the high side.
The blue graph shows the average number of weekly rigs operating during a given month as taken from the weekly drilling chart. The rig graph has been shifted forward by seven months. So the average 34.5 Rigs/wk operating in July 2023 have been moved forward to February 2024 to show the possible correlation and time delay between rig count, completions and oil production. If the seven month shift in the rig count is approximately correct in that oil production can be tied to the rig count, oil production in Midland county should increase for a month or two before resuming its decline.
The production revisions do not affect the GOR. For November the GOR ratio increased to 4.14 while production dropped.
With Midland county into the bubble point phase, oil production and the GOR have stayed within a narrow range outside of the initial Semi-Bounded GOR region. The oil production and GOR shown in this chart is based on the RRC’s November production report. Note that while the last few months are subject to revisions, the July 2023 to April 2024 production data has been steady for a number of months.
Above is the Martin county oil production chart posted in June. It was the second month that was hinting at a production peak for Martin county. Also it was the first month in which the GOR moved out of the semi-bounded GOR region. The subsequent July and August charts were affected by significant revisions to the earlier production data and as a result the projected results were not credible.
This chart has been posted to compare with the November oil production chart below which appears to confirm that Martin county has entered a plateau phase or possibly a declining phase.
The orange and green graphs show the production for Martin County as reported by the Texas RRC for October and November. The red graph is a projection for oil production as it would look after being updated over many months.
Martin county’s projected November oil production increased by 2 kb/d to 656 kb/d and is 26 kb/d lower than the peak rate achieved in May 2024, 682 kb/d. Note that May production in the comparison graph was 680 kb/d, very close to the value shown in this chart.
Texas’ RRC oil production for Martin County was showing initial signs of peaking in November 2023 but was then followed by declining production into January 2024. Production since June has been on a plateau while the rig count has been dropping.
The red graph is a production forecast which the Texas RRC could be reporting for Martin county about one year from now as the Texas RRC reports additional updated production information. This projection is based on a methodology that used the October and November production. The green graph shows oil production reported by the Texas RRC for November and is slightly higher than October.
The blue chart shifts the rig count ahead by 6 months. Note the three flat spots in the November, December and January rig count and similar flat spots in production a few months later.
November’s production data is another early indicator that Martin county’s oil production is in decline. A few more months of data will be required to confirm whether Martin County’s oil production is in decline.
Martin county’s oil production after November 2022 increased and at the same time drifted to slightly higher GORs within the semi bounded range. However the June 2024 GOR saw its first move out of the semi bounded region. November’s preliminary oil production was lower than November 2023 and June 2023. In November the GOR reached a new high of 2.93, which is consistent with falling oil production.
Martin county has the lowest semi-bounded GOR boundary of the four counties at a GOR of close to 2.60 but for November it has jumped to 2.93 and is clearly out of the semi-bounded region. Martin County has now entered the bubble point phase that should result in a dropping oil production trend.
This chart shows the total oil production from the four largest Permian counties. Assuming that current November Permian production is close to 6,400 kb/d, these four counties account for close to 55% of the total.
The production forecast for October and November is showing no growth. The small increase of 144 kb/d since March 2024 is another early indicator that these four counties combined are at the beginning of a production plateau in 2025. The projected production after July is a real production increase primarily from Eddy county. However since Eddy production dropped in November, overall production for November is flat at 3,405 kb/d.
The October and November initial production data is shown in the orange and green graphs respectively. The red graph uses the October and November data to project an estimate for the final November production. The plateauing of production in these four counties over the next few months would be an early indicator that US onshore L48 production is near its peak.
Findings
– Lea county may have peaked in May 2024. While oil production is not following the rig count graph directly, the dropping rig count is resulting in Lea production currently being on a plateau.
– Eddy County’s oil production initially peaked in February 2024. It started a new increasing phase in June as it followed the uptrend in the rig count and exceeded its previous February peak. November is the first month since May that production dropped and it may be the first sign that Eddy production has peaked as it is occurring at the same time as the rig count is peaking.
– Midland county peaked in July 2023 and has roughly followed the declining rig count graph since then. It appears to have started a new increasing phase in June 2024 but is unlikely to exceed the July 2023 peak.
– Martin County may have also peaked in May 2024 and may have entered a slow declining phase.
– Three of the four largest Permian oil producing counties are now in their post peak phase, assuming that drilling does not start to increase. Need a few more months of data on Eddy.
Texas District 8
Texas District 8 contains both the Midland and Martin counties. Combined these two counties produce close to 1,350 kb/d of oil. While these two counties are the two largest oil producers, there are many other counties with smaller production, such as Reeves #3, Loving #4, Upton #5 and Howard #6 that in total produced 3,498 kb/d of oil in November 2024. Essentially the Midland and Martin counties produce close to 39% of the District 8 oil.
The orange and green graphs show the production reported by the Texas RRC for October and November. The red graph is a projection and it indicates that production in District 8 entered a plateau phase in May 2024 around 3,350 kb/d. I think the October and November estimates as a bit on the high side.
Plotting an oil production vs GOR graph for a district may be a bit of a stretch. Regardless here it is and it seems to indicate many District 8 counties may well be into the bubble point phase. This is another indicator that implies District 8 has passed peak production.
Oil Production and GOR Charts for Two of the Next Bigger Oil Producing Counties in Texas
Upton county may have entered a plateau phase in September 2024 at 301 kb/d. Note the slow progression of the GOR since September 2023 in the Semi-Bounded GOR range towards higher GORs. As of November 2024, the GOR remains in the Semi-Bounded GOR range but may be on the verge of moving out.
The rig graph in the previous chart has been shifted forward by six months.
Howard county peaked in July 2023 at 418 kb/d. Note the rapid movement of the GOR to higher ratios once it broke out of the Semi-Bounded GOR range. While the GOR has risen to new highs, production has kept on falling. The production rise shown for November in the projection graph is overdone.
A Forecast for U.S. Oil Production
In the January 19th POB post, a reference was made to a U.S. oil production projection by Jean Laherrere using a Hubbert model that shows production peaking in 2025. The analysis used a single Logistic function to model production between 2008 and 2023.
Above is a two logistic model of US production from 1920 to 2024 which shows a projected peak in early 2023. Total potentially recoverable oil is 300 B barrels.
Drilling Productivity Report
The Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the principal tight oil regions. The new DPR report in the STEO provides production up to November 2024. The report also projects output to December 2025. The DUC charts and Drilled Wells charts are also updated to November 2024.
The oil production for the 5 DPR regions tracked by the EIA is shown above. Also the projection by the January 2025 STEO now extends to December 2026, red markers. Note DPR production includes both LTO oil and oil from conventional wells. DPR oil production for the Anadarko and Niobrara regions is no longer available.
The December oil output in the five DPR regions increased by 50 kb/d to 9,116 kb/d. Note the December 2024 production is 184 kb/d lower than the STEO December 2024 forecast of 9,300 kb/d in the previous post. Production is expected to drop by 90 kb/d in January to 9,026 kb/d. By December 2026 production is expected to reach 9,459 kb/d.
From December 2024 to December 2026, production is expected to grow by 343 kb/d. Note how production is flat from October 2026 to December 2026. Is this an early indication for an upcoming plateau and possible decline.
The EIA’s January DPR report shows Permian output increased by 5 kb/d to 6,488 kb/d. By December 2026 output is expected to be 6,997 kb/d, an increase of 509 kb/d or an annual growth rate of 255 kb/d/yr.
There has been a significant revision to the production forecast for December 2025. In the previous post, the STEO forecast production in December 2025 would be 6,631 kb/d. The updated forecast for December 2025 is 6,787 kb/d which is an upward revision of 156 kb/d.
Production from new wells and legacy decline, right scale, have been added to this chart to show the difference between new production and legacy decline.
Output in the Eagle Ford basin has been increasing since January 2024 and may have peaked in June 2024. December production rose by 20 kb/d to 1,189 kb/d. Production over the next two years is expected to fall. Output in December 2026 expected to be 1,088 kb/d, 101 kb/d lower than December 2024. January 2025 production is forecast to decrease by 20 kb/d to 1,169 kb/d.
The DPR/STEO reported that Bakken output in December rose by 14 kb/d to 1,255 kb/d. The STEO projection out to December 2026 shows output to be essentially flat in 2025 and mid way into 2026 and then to start dropping.
This chart plots the combined production from the three main LTO regions. For November output rose by 41 kb/d to 9,086 kb/d. Production in December 2025 is expected to reach 9,144 kb/d. This is a 46 kb/d production increase than forecast in the previous report.
DUCs and Drilled Wells
The number of DUCs available for completion in the Permian and the three major DPR regions has fallen every month since July 2020. December DUCs dropped by 1 to 1,491. In the Permian, the DUC count increased by 12 to 891. The July low was 845 DUCs.
In the three primary regions, 630 wells were completed and 629 were drilled.
In the Permian, the monthly completion and drilling rates have been both stabilizing in the 440 to 455 range over the last 5 months.
In December 2024, 443 wells were completed while 455 new wells were drilled. This is the fifth month in a row in which the number of wells drilled exceeded the number of completed wells.