The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is September 2024 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC charts below the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.
Output for August 2024 was revised higher by 60 kb/d and July 2024 output was revised higher by 54 kb/d compared to last month’s report. OPEC 12 output decreased by 604 kb/d with most of the decrease from Libya’s political turmoil(410 kb/d.) Iraq decreased by 155 kb/d, all other OPEC members had small increases or decreases of 33 kb/d or smaller, with the net decrease being about 39 kb/d for the other 10 OPEC nations.
The chart above shows output from the Big 4 OPEC producers that are subject to output quotas (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait.) After the pandemic, Big 4 average output peaked in 2022 at a centered 12 month average (CTMA) of 20849 kb/d, crude output has been cut by 2378 kb/d relative to the 2022 CTMA peak to 18471 kb/d. The Big 4 may have roughly 2378 kb/d of spare capacity when World demand calls for an increase in output.
The chart above shows the same data as the previous chart over the past 36 months (October 2021 to September 2024).
Crude output from the Other 8 OPEC producers (those not part of the Big 4) has risen at an average annual rate of 447 kb/d for the past 36 months. About 410 kb/d of this increase has come from Iran and Venezuela, so the 6 remaining OPEC members have seen an average annual increase of only about 37 kb/d over the past 3 years, essentially flat output. If we assume Iran and Venezuela are close to maximum output levels under the current international sanctions regime, then the Other 8 OPEC nations are likely to have relatively little increase in output in the future.
Over the next 5 years or so I expect World Supply of C+C will be adequate to meet demand, given continued increases from Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway along with spare capacity of over 2000 kb/d from the OPEC Big 4. In addition we will likely see reduced demand due to the transition to electric land transport. Oil prices will tell the tale of whether peak oil supply or peak oil demand hits first.
OECD commercial petroleum stocks are close to the 2023 level which is about 86 Mb/d below the 5 year average.
World demand estimates have again been revised lower than last month’s estimate with 2024 demand falling by 100 kb/d and 2025 demand falling by 200 kb/d, I expect in future months we will see further revisions to lower demand estimates as the OPEC demand estimates are significantly higher than EIA and IEA estimates. The EIA expects 2024 demand to be 103.06 Mb/d and 2025 demand to be 104.35 Mb/d. The IEA expects demand in 2024 to be slightly less than 103 Mb/d and in 2025 it expects about 103.9 Mb/d, almost 2 Mb/d less than the OPEC estimate for 2025.
In 2024 OPEC expects about 45% of the US increase in liquids output will come from C+C and in 2025 about 58% of the increase in US liquids output will come from C+C, with the balance from NGL, biofuel, and other liquids increases. Tight oil provides 120% of the C+C increase in 2024 and 107% of the C+C increase in 2025.
The Permian basin provides 110% of the tight oil increase in 2024 and 81% of the tight oil increase in 2025 and is responsible for most of the projected increase in US C+C output over the 2023 to 2025 period.
If oil supplies are forever adequate, what was the point of the whole peak oil discussion from the 2000s until the present day?
Did we just waist a significant proportion of our time studying and documenting a problem that isn’t really a problem?
I mean, understand peak oil, and have for a long time, but this is just waiting for godot now.
OPEC+ down 560 Kbpd.
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Russia Crude Only down 28 Kbd to 9,001,000 barrels per day.
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