How did we come to be? Here is great AGU 2017 seminar on what is probably the primordial celestial accident that finally unleashed our ancestors to become diverse and dominate in the world.
Chicxulub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCJEU6PBd3M
Apologies, looks like I saw “open thread” and put these in the wrong place.
Big drops in crude and gasoline storage, but a big rise in distillate. I’m not sure I fully believe the week to week changes – they bounce around more than I would think possible given they depend on producers, shippers and refiners – but I think the overall combined trends are representative. Anybody know how EIA actually get the numbers (some form I’d imagine and not always completed by all parties).
Sorry – gasoline was an increase, the refineries must have been going flat out.
Every article on oil prices in the last several months says the ONLY downside is US shale.
Do the larger US shale companies pay attention to supply/demand dynamics at all? At current prices most can show positive EPS, assuming service costs do not surge too much?
For example, auto manufacturers do not produce the maximum vehicles possible. They pay attention to supply and demand. Almost every single manufacturer tries to forecast demand for its product.
Even farmers try to grow what crops are in most demand and raise what livestock is most in demand.
We have not drilled a well in over 3 years due to lack of oil demand, our production has fallen.
“Rystad Energy is even bullish on American oil. The Norwegian firm sees U.S. crude output hitting 11 million barrels per day by December, narrowly surpassing global leader Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia.”
Absolute poppycock! US output will do good to get to the level that EIA is currently reporting, about 9.75 by the end of 2018. Mike’s post explains why. 11 million barrels a day,? Man, that is some potent stuff they are smoking.
Hi Guym,
My Guess is that the US C+C monthly output may reach 10.2 Mb/d by November 2018 (the peak is likely between July and November 2018). I agree the 11 Mb/d estimate is too high.
In addition to a dearth of frac crews, drivers, and other support, the lack of gas line infrastructure will slow completions for awhile.
yes, but in those industries the compensation packages of management are based on profits. If they were based on production grow (as it is with shale), you could bet that they would produce flat out as well, especially if they get free fincancing from wall street.
shallow sand,
>Do the larger US shale companies pay attention to supply/demand dynamics at all?
>At current prices most can show positive EPS, assuming service costs do not surge too much?
This might be a wrong question. The right question IMHO is: “To what extent shale companies are just prostitutes of Wall Street and to what extent they are independent oil production companies? ”
What if the key role for such companies is to be a part of “price crasher” mechanism (along with “naked shorts” and similar financial chicanery) ?
I believe that with the shale boom it is Wall Street that obtained mechanism using which they can dictate oil prices.
Not Saudies or OPEC in general but Wall Street titans are now in the driving seat, although OPEC and Russia are fighting back by limiting production.
And Wall Street is not shy to step on the throat of “conventional” oil producers and force them to produce with no or even negative margins because of the specific of oil industry.
When you gets so much money on such lenient conditions something is fishy… This dual production mode (oil plus junk bonds and evergreen loans) looks to me just a variable of “subprime housing boom” on a new level.
The shale oil industry is NOT profitable. It never has been and in general terms it will not be in 2018 either. There has always been something fishy about its funding, particularly when wankers like this guy can make $16M a year in compensation, while his company looses money year over year for stock holders. Clearly, however, it is not his fault his company can’t be profitable and it is not their fault they are “forced” to borrow all that money…
There has been talk of higher interest rates for 10 yrs.
The US debt is $20 Trillion. 1% rise in rates would be $200 billion that must be serviced. US deficit this year will be almost 500B. 1% rise would be about 50% of the deficit. 2% doubles it.
From post above:
TRUMP PROPOSES VAST EXPANSION OF OFFSHORE DRILLING
(Zinke) “This is a start on looking at American energy dominance,”
Regardless of emotional reaction to this announcement, I am skeptical of its viability.
My skeptical mind tells me, when all else fails, look at the numbers. The numbers per MMS chart on Wikipedia:
Undiscovered technically-recoverable oil resources on the outer continental shelf, 2006:
Washington/Oregon – 0.4Bbo
Nor Cal – 2.08 Bbo
Central Cal – 2.31 Bbo
So Cal – 5.74 Bbo
All Atlantic + east FL – 3.84 Bbo
GOM – 44.92 Bbo
North Slope – 23.6 Bbo
Alaska less NS – 3.0 Bbo
I conclude that most of the “new” oil unleashed by this stunning decision is in the GOM and and the North slope, both of which are well-known by the industry and which have been open to Federal leases in the past. After Shell’s bad experience, oil will take a much higher price to get any bids for the NS and for the GOM, this is just BAU. The Atlantic and Pacific Coasts don’t have enough resource to be worth exploring, much less leasing.
OK, there are some sharp oil people here on the forum and I’m just a dumb HVAC engineer. Help me. Am I missing something? Are they actually going for the natural gas, and is it worth going after?
Either Trump and his energy folks are so determined to stick it to environmentalists that they are willing to hurt the industries they claim to help, or they know this won’t amount to anything but it will impress their hardcore supporters.
I sincerely doubt most states will cooperate with allowing all the shoreline and shallow water infrastructure needed to replicate the GOM.
Can anyone see FL allow pipelines running to tank farms located on the shoreline?
I understand the states control from the shore to 3 miles out.
If I am wrong, please point out how.
Shallow, you aren’t kidding about these reckless frackers:
I believe that is a good summary HVAC, as is Boomers suggestion that this offshore development legislation is cursory and an otherwise meaningless gesture made toward an agenda that involves eliminating regulations for the oil and gas industry and “unleashing” America’s energy might on the rest of the world.
Always skeptical of “technical recoverable guesses,” my suggestion is to focus on product prices instead and the current reduced level of activity in the GOM. Oil prices are volatile because of the fiscally irresponsible, short investment nature of the shale oil industry and offshore development takes years and years to bring to market. There is natural gas coming out of our ears at the moment because of the shale phenomena; the price is tanking back to the mid $2’s and there is no place to put anymore gas.
This is another nail in this administrations coffin, from my conservative perspective. It is enraging the environmental left and will help assure the biggest Democratic turnout in history in 3 years. Then, much like Trump turned over Obama’s legislation regarding offshore drilling, this one will be turned over as well. I don’t think a 3 year time frame and price volatility gives the offshore industry enough time to do anything with this, personally. Its fluff.
Looks like the off-shore drilling thing may have just been a political stunt. If you are a Republican and you ask Trump nicely, he’ll exclude your state.
Alberta Canada – Total Production (crude oil + condensates + upgraded bitumen + bitumen)
November at 3,412 kb/day, up +304 m/m. Average production in 2017 to November, up +250 kb/day over 2016 full year.
India consumption growth. BP apparently did a mid year (as in Dec, their bible comes out Junes) look at India and project 4.2%/yr for oil out to 2035.
That’s roughly a double. That would put them at 9 mbpd.
Worth nothing 4.2% would be substantially below recent growth rates of 7+%.
It’s an all liquids thing. They run vehicles on LPG.
EIA STEO – January 9, 2018 – US crude oil production estimate for December revised up by +190kb/day versus last months estimate…
EIA: This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2019
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and is estimated to have averaged 9.9 million b/d in December. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts production to increase to an average of 10.8 million b/d in 2019 and to surpass 11 million b/d in November 2019.
Link https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
US oil production – comparing the 914 Survey and various STEO forecasts
I don´t think the 2018 increase in US production as forecasted by EIA is realistic. Completions are ramped up in Permian and Bakken. Eagle Ford looks like a dead fish when it comes to growth again. And several companies say ramping up further is difficult because of worker and equipment shortages for fracking. A lot of folks will have others views on this, but this is how I see it.
I don’t have any insights. I guess that the latest increase in the STEO production forecast is due to the increase in the price of WTI?
News articles suggest that there are at least a few more years worth of sweet spots in the Permian, maybe that’s what the forecast relies on?
I’m still waiting to see how the increasing gap between the EIA and the TexasRRC production figures resolves?
My guess is the EIA will revise its TX C+C estimates lower for Oct 2017 by about 100 kb/d, probably this wont happen until Sept 2018. The best estimate is the drilling info estimate, but you have to go back to about July 2017 for a good estimate (the most recent two months reported, Aug and Sept 2017, are incomplete and will be revised higher in future months).
Just have to see how the lunacy plays out.
EIA just adjusted lower 48 production estimate in their weekly report to 8 979 kbd from 9 272 kbd, -293 kbd change.
Now that is the adjustment that was called for!
Agree, just about right. No explanation, anywhere, that I can see. Market has not responded to it, yet. Really screws up their short term energy report.
Could the adjusted lower 48 production estimate be do to the most recent blast of artic air shutting in production?
Analysis: Venezuela’s oil production plummets amid chaos and industry defections
London (Platts)–9 Jan 2018
Einstein Millan, an independent Venezuela-based analyst who formerly worked for PDVSA, estimated that the company would need 100 to 110 active rigs to reverse its production decline
The rig pullback and accelerating field decline rates will cause Venezuelan oil production to fall by another 300,000 to 400,000 b/d in 2018, analysts with Washington-based Rapidan Energy forecast. https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-venezuelas-oil-production-plummets-amid-26867944
chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHb04WW4AAct9f.jpg
Very recently I have read articles about water supply issues in North Dakota, Colorado, and Texas. Deciding whether cities, agriculture, or frackers are going to get the necessary water is being discussed.
Some people in this forum believe governments will find a way to develop and fund oil production because “we’ve got to have oil.”
But we also have to have water. Water is more basic than oil, so will declining supplies of water be a wake-up call for citizens if economics and decline rates don’t kill fracking first?
All the water used for fracking combined for the next 50 years is a percentage of the water wasted every year growing cotton in west Texas.
Water isn’t the issue.
Timthetiny,
Correct.
Agriculture is the big user of water in Texas, not fracking. That said, I agree with Mike on how stupid the shale industry so-called business model is.
According to this article people are growing cotton without irrigation—just rainfall.
Frackers can’t just seize water or pump out rivers and lakes. They have to deal with whoever has the water rights, and whoever has the water rights can say No.
That’s what I am saying. Will people say no to frackers over water?
well now, since we all know I am the kind of guy who take the time to say “i told you so” some of you boys with so much time on your hands you have noting better to do then complain, might search for my oil price prediction posted here a few months back. Now it’s not going to be perfect, but i will damn sure chalk it up as a win? and let’s give Dennis a thumbs up, a blind pig finds a acorn every now and then? and the reason for the smily face, i actually put my money where my big fat mouth is.
TT. Are you hedging production?
We have been following this sudden spike, trying to decide if we should buy some puts. The premium quotes per contract are still pretty expensive. Seeing $4 barrel range for puts near the strip.
Hedging is tough if just playing the market, at least for me.
Project hedges were not as tough, but when we were doing them $1-1.50 per barrel was the price. Plus, mentally for me a project hedge is easier. I would just figure that into the cost of the new project. Part of CAPEX Buy a lease for $300K, pay another $20,000 for the puts, so the lease cost $320K.
Now, mentally I view the hedging as an expense, which is tougher. I know that may seem strange, but is the way I think about it.
Hi Shallow sand,
It depends on what you expect the future price will be, what is your expectation for the future price of oil? That’s where I would start.
“One of the best ways we strengthen communities is by providing high-paying careers. Average pay in the natural gas and oil industry is nearly $50,000 higher than the U.S. average salary. The energy industry offers life-changing careers that lead to thriving communities and help to address broader societal challenges.”
now dennis who is it that is for all folks doing well, it ain’t frekin Mike, his political and economic model is Venezuela.
TT.
Why do you have to disparage Mike?
Mike is a conservative and Republican, but just because he doesn’t mindlessly spew right wing propaganda, you blast him.
Keep in mind those energy jobs include refinery and pipleline jobs, which are much more favorable in terms of pay, benefits, hours and work conditions, than most upstream blue collar jobs. They are much more stable jobs.
Here, where I live, the highest paying jobs are in the refinery, followed by the pipeline. No one goes from either back into upstream, but the opposite is very common.
Neither the refinery nor the pipeline layoff for economic reasons., at least they have not in the 30+ years I have been paying attention. Upstream was a bloodbath in 2015 and 2016.
A refinery worker with more than five years on the job makes $100K+, plus benefits. A pipeliner with more than five years experience makes almost as much. Very few upstream workers in the stripper fields are making more than $60K, with scant benefits. I assume things are much better in the shale patch, but not good enough for anyone at the refinery to take a transfer from downstream to upstream, same with the pipeline.
I guess the primary reason I am a skeptic of yours is the political agenda you espouse, which seems to be strictly to the platform. Most astute businessmen and women I know are much more nuanced.
For example, Mike blasts shale because its overproduction without regard to profit or anything else led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of UPSTREAM jobs throughout the world, including a large percentage in the US. But, management are generally controlled by Wall Street. Wall Street has changed the narrative, and suddenly Oil is now over $60.
The political media on both sides are completely out of control. The extremes rule both parties. It is mind numbing. The masses MUST resume voting in primaries if we are ever going to get back to some sanity.
Do you hold any beliefs that are cotrary to the Republican platoform?
I was raised a conservative Democrat, but feel the National Party has veered too far left. Yet the R’s are too far right too. I really don’t feel I belong either place.
I really admire Obama as a person not because of his policies, because I disagreed with many and could not stand him calling percentage depletion as a “big oil” tax break. I admire him because he has been married to one woman, like me, and despite being busier than heck, seemed to really care about raising his daughters the right way.
Trump, I agree with on some policies, disagree with him on others. But I can’t stand him given his low moral standards and constant tweeting. Married three times, threw the first two away when they got too old. Lies like there is no tomorrow. I am not aware of a bigger blowhard.
But, Trump might save our oil production from the extreme enviro folks who would make is plug out the field in a NY minute. So, it is complicated.
So, am I reading you wrong, or are you just here to push the Republican platform? Any nuance in your views?
Thank you, Shallow. Tee tee and I are OK now, in a much better place with each other, a mutual understanding, if you will. He knows I think he is stupid and does not jack shit about the oil business.
Rigzone and others suggest that the worldwide oil and gas industry lost over 500,000 jobs since 2014 that have not been replaced, including 122,000 in the American oil and gas industry, including in the Appalachian Rising Basin where gas prices have fallen almost a dollar an MMBTU in a few months and they too can’t keep from shooting themselves in the kneecaps with overleveraged, unpaid oversupply.
I was in Venezuela not long ago, as you know, and things are very bad there. The people of Venezuela did not vote for their predicament; they have had little say about it for a long time. It is very bad there. You have to be a heartless prick to use Venezuela as a political tool, to make a stupid point about oil and gas jobs. Gawd.
Several industries are moderately desperate for workers in the western Pennsylvania area.
There are two week introduction courses being offered by groups who then steer applicants to waiting employers.
I think it may be a pre screening process to determine who can show up 10 business days in a row and thence, demonstrate reliability and determination.
Pittsburgh airport is starting a $1 billion dollar renovation.
Not a dime of the $83 billion Chinese companies announced they will invest in West Virginia alone has yet been spent, but the anticipation is already being felt.
The plans to launch massive NGL storage in the area are taking off and should affect proposals for another 2 or more crackers.
The upstream in the Appalachian Basin has become so efficient that the drilling alone may not be the focus of large employment numbers, but everything downstream – in a wide array of industries – has decades of growth in the offing.
Although the comment has been removed that prompted this current posting by me, I will briefly address the specific economic impacts that have, literally, global implications that are both large – paradigm changing, actually – and still in the very early stages …
Start with the recently re-opened steel mill in Mingo Junction, Ohio.
While it employed thousands back in the ’70s, it shut down a decade back..
One year ago, new owners restarted production, have about 100 high paid employees, and expect to continue to expand.
Over in Flint Michigan, a multi billion dollar greenfield steel mill is being planned.
Look, please, at Foxconn’s project in Wisconsin which expects to employ 1,000 employees this year at salaries starting at $50,000/yr with bennies.
The $10 billion dollar manufacturing plant will eventually hire 13,000 workers when it’s complete in 5 years.
The fears of a looming “De-industrialization” of Australia are not unfounded as long term 8 cents per kilowatt hour for heavy power users may prove too much to ignore, all the more so if competitors take advantage of the situation.
Indeed, long term, rock bottom pricing, highly reliable electricity sourcing is a different direction entirely than other regions around the world project for their native industries.
The outlook for decades to come in the Appalachian Basin is for much higher output for the methane which provides utility-scale heat and cheap fuel for CCGT power plants – 24 of which are being built or planned in Pennsylvania and Ohio alone.
The ethane and propane coming from the area will be cracked and turned into feedstock for plants such as Foxconn’s and countless other Asian and European manufacturers looking to relocate.
Some of the ethylene and propylene, or liquefied ethane and propane, is currently being shipped around the world.
The 5 Bcf first year production from northeast Pennsylvania wells is becoming somewhat routine starting 2017.
If that number does not resonate, picture the energy equivalent of almost 1 million barrels of oil.
The number of 15,000 to 17,000 foot long laterals will increase dramatically this year, with Eclipse having drilled a 20,800 footer in Ohio in 13 days.
The sub $4 mmbtu HH may be here for quite some time.
Sorry, folks.
This site has been a nexus for anti fossil fuel sentiment, coupled with anti capitalist and even a subdued antipathy towards Americans.
The individuals, countries, and companies within the global hydrocarbon industry have been severely, negatively impacted by the onslaught of production brought about by this so called Shale Revolution.
Genie ain’t goin’ back inta da bottle.
China, Argentina, Russia, Mexico several European countries are in various stages of heading down this path.
Just the way it is.
That’s nice. Can you export this cheap gas to Europe, too?
Our reserves in the North Sea are almost depleted, and russian gas is expensive.
Then even the enviromentalist can shut down the coal power plants and replace them with cheap gas plants.
There is a lot of demand of cheap gas world wide – how big are your reserves?
Eulenspeigel
Don’t know if you saw that century old cathedral near Cologne was just demolished for the open pit lignite mine.
Lights must stay on. Houses gotta stay warm.
The US Department of Energy just released a report that projects almost 16 Trillion cubic feet a year production from the Appalachian Basin in 30 years, double the current figure.
If the recent, extensive report on the Utica proves accurate, 800 Tcf will come from Da Ute, comparable, they said, to the Marcellus.
Using 1,600 Tcf as a working figure, that is 200 years worth of production at today’s rate.
Half that if the annual output goes to 16 Tcf/year.
Lotta gas.
The cost of Yamal was about $27 billion for 16 million tons per year.
The Gladstone project in Queensland cost about $60 billion for about 26 mtpa.
If the ambitious project from Tellurian in Louisiana comes in as planned, it will cost $16 billion and produce 27 mtpa.
Big, big drop in cost.
More is coming, however, via ships, especially from the Norwegian outfit Golar who is teaming up with a company Delfin, to place 4 ship style liquification plants – FLNGs – at a cost in the $5/6 billion range for 13 mtpa.
I believe a few years out, natgas will start to encroach upon oil for more uses.
The lignite mining here is for pure electricity generation – and heating with eletricity is rare in Germany due to high taxes on electricity.
So this lignite could be substituted with gas – only russion gas is expensive, and US gas still does not arrive here in quantity.
I think you could empty your 200 years storage in less than 50 years when you can sell it world wide, and stay at low prices.
LNG exports will ramp up dramatically within 5 years, along with LPG (Propane – already 1 million bbld) and both piped and shipped ethane.
Quick note regarding employment/unemployment in oil field related industries …
Next Thursday, at the Mountain Valley Community College near Zanesville, Ohio, Halliburton is having a job fair for entry level frac crews positions
Starting pay $15/hr, 14 on 7 off, housing provided and per diem meals.
Experienced folks with CDL start higher .
That jargon simply means any – preferably younger – ambitious person who wants an entry level position that could yield $100k+ in the not-too-distant future, here’s your chance.
In a followup, a just released paper from the US Northeast Petrochemical Industry outlines how the hundreds of billions in commerce, the tens of billions in tax revenue, and the quarter of a million jobs that can be expected in this area as infrastructure is built, workforce is recruited and trained, and ongoing production of hydrocarbons are all realized.
People who – for a variety of reasons – do not wish these events to unfold will be disappointed as they are already underway.
Those whose self interests are threatened by these changes will increasingly be recognized as obstructionist and self directed individuals/companies/countries whose primary motivation is to prevent the immanent resurgence of this region.
“That jargon simply means any – preferably younger – ambitious person who wants an entry level position that could yield $100k+ in the not-too-distant future, here’s your chance.’
…and who has no long term ambitions to stay in the oil and gas industry and is out to make a quick buck. The shale gas industry, like the shale oil industry, is fraught with employment instability because none of those guys running that industry are fiscally responsible and none of them give a rats ass about their employees. Hire on with us: two years on, 3 years off. Helluva deal.
“Those whose self interests are threatened by these changes will increasingly be recognized as obstructionist and self directed individuals/companies/countries whose primary motivation is to prevent the immanent resurgence of this region.”
So, for those of us who are concerned about the long term sustainability of the shale gas industry in America, because of its debt and unprofitability, who disagree with exporting our last remaining hydrocarbon resources away in the form of LNG, for nothing, who know we are going to need it back in a few years, who don’t want their kids saddled with debt, are…obstructionists? Good grief, Coffee. The opposite of that is that you are only a good American if you believe in borrowing money and not paying it back?
Who feels “threatened” by not owning $2.3 billion of long term debt (Range) or $3.8 billion (EQT)?
Not me, man. Not anybody in their right mind who is relying on shale gas decline to pay that debt back, who has something to…lose. Do you have anything to lose if the shale gas industry fails, again, Coffee?
“Quick note regarding employment/unemployment in oil field related industries …
Next Thursday, at the Mountain Valley Community College near Zanesville, Ohio, Halliburton is having a job fair for entry level frac crews positions
Starting pay $15/hr, 14 on 7 off, housing provided and per diem meals.”
That’s not very much. Granted housing and meals are included, but $15 an hour is the norm in a lot of entry level jobs.
I removed it, in an effort to be more civil to you, though I trust you won’t forget what it said. Your flowery rhetoric about the wonders of the shale revolution always ignore the business aspects of it, well economics and the financial condition of private enterprise engaged in this miracle; you willingly admit that. It is sufficient for you, and many others, that it simply exists. How it exists is unimportant. You are assured of its continued existence for decades (centuries, you’ve once said) because “capitalism” in America is now totally dependent on credit and the debt we leave our children to cope with in the future is secondary to the here and now.
“…individuals, countries, and companies within the global hydrocarbon industry have been severely, negatively impacted by the onslaught of production brought about by this so called Shale Revolution.” Indeed. The American shale revolution has simply outspent the entire rest of the world. The shale oil industry alone has accumulated $280,000,000,000 of outstanding debt doing so. The shale gas industry probably as much. In other words, neither entity has paid for depleted assets that it drilled eight years ago. In the long run, that is not good for America.
Hi Mike,
I agree, it seems the natural gas wells in the Appalachian basin would not be very profitable.
According to site above (not sure if it is reliable), in Oct 2017 Wellhead prices in Pennsylvania were $1.54/ MCF.
The Average Marcellus and Utica well which started producing in 2016 did indeed have over 2 BCF of cumulative output, this would be equivalent to 400,000 bo in energy terms. But let’s do it in revenue terms.
2 BCF@$2/MCF=$4 million (MCF is 1000 CF)
Let’s assume $50/b at wellhead for oil, so the revenue equivalent for oil output would be 4,000,000/50=80 kbo.
From a revenue perspective this is not impressive at all, especially considering they need to drill 15,000 to 20,000 foot laterals to accomplish it.
Are these companies profitable? I have not researched it, but my guess would either be no, or not very at $2/MCF.
It looks like overproduction hurts natural gas producers just as much as it does oil producers.
I think Range Resources (RRC) is a major player in Appalachian Gas.
It’s share price is around $16, at an over ten year low. In 2013 it was trading in the $90s for awhile.
Interesting that coffee mentions Eclipse. Eclipse IPO at $25. It is now at $2.50.
The CEO of Eclipse was formerly the CEO of Rex Energy. Rex is now at $1.67 after a reverse split. So, reverse split adjusted, it is down from a high of $280 per share.
By the way, both Eclipse and Rex are in Raw Energy’s “Bottom of the Barrel” club on Seeking Alpha. I have sure learned a lot about bankruptcy from his articles.
Interesting thing is management always seems to make out like bandits in bankruptcy.
Now coffee and Texas Tea, is the fact that BK companies’ management gets sweet heart deals the kind of capitalism you like? I am not a fan of that, I must admit.
I recommend reading Raw Energy’s Seeking Alpha articles. Shocking how many firms went BK as a result of shale overproduction crashing oil and gas prices.
One can also look at Haynes & Boone Oil Patch BK monitor, which shows 134 BK upstream companies 1/1/15 – 10/31/17 and the Energy Service BK tracker, which shows 155 energy service company BK during the same time frame.
Now it appears OPEC and Russia, of all people, are riding to the rescue on oil. And yet shale will once again be cash flow negative in 2018.
Perverted capitalism if you ask me.
Overproduction of shale gas from the App Basin has killed that site specific faction of the domestic oil and natural gas industry. Nobody has made money in that play, not ENOUGH money to get themselves out of debt. There have been some “monster” bankruptcies occur in the App Basin. You are correct, Dennis, the first five years of that play was developed at < $1 per MMBTU. It got a little better, now its going down hill again. There is gas coming out of our noses in America, so much of it they are flaring hundreds of millions of MCF's per day all over America. Forever wasted.
We must ask ourselves what exactly is the intent of a handful of commenters on Peak Oil Barrel that consistently wish to chastise people who disagree with them, who constantly cheerlead for a small portion of a great industry in spite of poor economic performance, obvious deceit regarding reserve reporting, in spite of massive amounts of debt. What is the point in the argument? To convince smart enough people that can add and subtract on their own that they are wrong? That America will be fine in the future. That it should ignore debt and just be happy that all those hydrocarbons are simply there?
Since when has lying and borrowing money you can’t pay back become some thing honorable in America, something to look up to, and embrace?
Here's the ultimate irony in these arguments in favor of unconventional shale development in America. The people that embrace it the most are the free enterprise forever, lets eliminate all regulations on the hydrocarbon industry, but not tax incentives, forever folks. The lets keep government small and out of our lives forever folks.
But the government is who is funding the shale phenomena with no to low interest stimulus. Without big government shale oil, nor shale gas, would not even exist.
The people that cheerlead for the shale phenomena are confused and arithmetic challenged. Take their comments for what they are. Self serving dribble. American business must make money to succeed, be it pizzas, or shale gas. Profit is the ultimate definition of capitalism in America. That is what makes America great.
Not debt. Debt is “perverted” capitalism, Shallow is spot on.
Mike. I know when you refer to “debt” what kind you are referring to.
Just to be clear, debt in and of itself is not bad. The problem is the “no consequences” debt.
If you or I had unfortunately bought s significant amount of oil production in 2014, and financed it all, and not been able to make the payments, neither of us could have done a “pre pack chapter 11” where we told the creditor to “screw off” while we got some “dip financing” from which we took a big bonus, plus issued ourselves some shares of our reorganized company.
Most likely our assets would have been sold, and if that didn’t pay off the balance, and if we were required to do a personal guarantee, we would be ponying up our personal assets.
Now, I am not advocating personal liability necessarily for public Corp management with regard to debt. But why the rewards during BK? Why no salary cuts during times of distress?
Why should a shale CEO make $5 million in salary and benefits when his or her company just lost $3.00 per share for the year?
Debt is not perverted. Debt with no consequences is.
Bailout nation. $20 trillion of national debt and counting. Each party attacks the other about this debt, then conveniently ignores it when that party is in power. So I guess no surprise about the shale debacle.
I greatly underestimated how much money would be thrown into the furnace regarding shale. I admit it freely.
I agree.
Normal dept is necessary. I’m in the industry here in Germany, I have no mining/oil background since this doesn’t exsist in Germany any more besides a few coal mines.
Dept is fine if your ROI calculation is fine. There are lots of project we do in the industry that pay back in less than 1 year, most pay back in less than 3 years. Or they are necessary to keep up with the competition in quality or speed – then they are necessary anyhow.
Dept for paying dividends or stock buyback – that’s the perverted cheap money here with big DAX companies. The middle sized industry, the spine of the industry here, uses dept only as a tool – and that’s ok.
Yes, of course you are correct, Shallow. When I speak of debt within the shale industry I too am referring to debt without consequences. Debt is indeed necessary and a useful tool in any business model. I use it, everyone uses it. Most business use it. When managed properly it is imperative.
The hydrocarbon business however is not he same as other businesses that for instance will borrow money to build PP&E and that PP&E appreciates over time, as does the goodwill of the business. The shale business within the oil and gas industry is unique into itself because of high decline rates of its “product.” Its assets are constantly DEpreciating. Its debt must coincide with payout of the well, in my opinion. That has not been the case, of course, and corporations like Devon, or Chesapeake have not paid back the money it took to drill wells eight years ago. Imagine 25% of your revenue now going to simply pay interest on debt. In that case debt is not a tool, it is a burden, an anchor that never goes away, that prevents growth and profitability.
The debt of the shale industry is overlooked, I assume because of the importance of its product to society. Very few analysts that discuss the ‘resilience’ of the shale industry discuss where the money is coming from and the ramifications of that additional debt to the financial health of that faction of our industry.
As the end of the fossil fuel era approaches perhaps what we have left to extract is now so expensive, so unprofitable,so credit dependent that private enterprise simply cannot do it. Or that only the biggest of the big can do it.
Hi Texas Tea,
Mike is all for people doing well. Overproduction of oil and low profits leads to lower employment in the oil industry when prices crash.
Also a lot of oil companies going out of business does not help employment much and bankruptcy rates in the oil industry have been quite high in the oil industry from 2015 to 2017.
Most intelligent people realize that unregulated capitalism is not good for the average citizen, that’s a far cry from being a fan of a socialist dictator in South America.
Interesting to note that the basis for 30-39 API low sulfur crude in our area continues to improve.
I have read similar crudeis selling for a premium to Brent by over $4 per barrel. See article on Oilprice.com.
I’ve noticed WTI closed at $62.96 on Tuesday, a three year high. Any insights?
API just announced their analysis of US drawdown … 11.19 million barrels.
Way high.
Iranian upheaval, already smacked down. Anticipation of retaliation likely within KSA. Eastern KSA is Shiite.
Had a talk with a KSA citizen about Qatar. That person’s impression of consensus is that . . . wording carefully here, the consensus attitude, not opinion, is a hope that the ruling family in Qatar will be removed by their own citizens. Not an induced insurrection. A spontaneous one.
Apparently there is no impression within KSA that the new Crown Prince will use military action to force Qatar to do anything.
There is also talk floating about that Bitcoin is affecting oil’s price. There is a convoluted rationale about the relative anonymity available with Bitcoin and somehow that is affecting price. The rationale is a certain amount of supply prefers Bitcoin and traditional cash buyers are forced to bid up.
2018-01-10 Reuters – India’s fuel demand rose 7.5 percent in December compared with the same month last year. Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled 17.39 million tonnes, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed.
3x free to read Argus news articles…
London, 9 January (Argus) — North Sea production is likely to remain relatively stable in 2018 but calls for changes to the benchmark are likely to grow
This stability has been driven by the regular start-up of new fields in the last few years, which has offset the declines recorded by the region’s mature assets. Production rates will benefit from the start-up of the Kraken, Maria, Catcher and Gina Krog fields in recent months, and 2018 should see the start-up of Liberator, Mariner and Harrier.
Forties production appears to be declining sharply as well, driven by a slowdown at the grade’s largest contributing field Buzzard. Forecasts from FPS operator Ineos suggest Forties production will average around 374,000 b/d in the first quarter, down from 440,000 b/d in the first three months of 2017. Buzzard production peaked at 218,000 b/d in 2009 but the field continued producing almost 200,000 b/d until 2013. Output has declined since then and that decline looks to be accelerating. In 2016, Buzzard output was 8pc lower than in the previous year, while in 2017 production was down a further 4pc even before the field was shut in on 11 December.
Ineos forecasts suggest first-quarter Buzzard production will decline by 20pc from the same period of 2017. http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1604086
Washington, 10 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump’s administration has abruptly withdrawn offshore acreage around Florida from its proposal to open more federal waters to oil and gas leasing
“I support the governor’s position that Florida is unique and its coasts are heavily reliant on tourism as an economic driver,” Zinke said. “As a result, I am removing Florida from consideration for any new oil and gas platforms.” http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1604562
Caracas, 8 January (Argus) — Venezuela lost an estimated 151,000 b/d of crude production in December, accelerating a collapse across all of state-owned PdV´s operating divisions, according to unofficial preliminary figures obtained from three PdV upstream executives.
Venezuela reported output declines of 130,000 b/d in November and 118,000 b/d in October 2017. http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1603657
The big start up this year is Clair Ridge, and the big one last year was Glen Lyon FPSO – both BP and bigger than any of the others mentioned. Maybe they don’t include these as they might be considered brownfield redevelopment or extensions on existing fields. Buzzard water cut is going up about 2% (absolute) a month so it’s production could drop suddenly. Golden Eagle is also a fairly big producer and seeing increase in water cut.
Hi George
Liberator has not even secured funding yet so I am a bit sceptical about that one for 2018.
TexasRRC – 9th January 2018 – In December 2017, Commission staff processed 514 oil, 80 gas, 26 injection and three other completions compared to 430 oil, 93 gas, 20 injection and two other completions in December 2016. Total well completions processed for 2017 are 6,914; down from 10,468 recorded in 2016. http://www.rrc.texas.gov/all-news/010918a/
Completions Statistics for November 2017: 388 oil and 74 natural gas
Average number of oil well completions for the 12 months of 2017 was: 450
Average number of natural gas well completions for the 12 months of 2017 was: 85
Chinese oil import demand seen as strong in January…
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – Shipments of West African oil to China are set to surge to a record in January, boosting overall fixtures heading east to their highest in at least 14 years, a Reuters survey of shipping fixtures and traders showed on Wednesday.
Energy Aspects said a large amount of destocking in the fourth quarter, which amounted to a total drawdown of some 40-60 million barrels in China, also prompted strong demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer. https://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-westafrica-exports/record-w-african-oil-sailing-east-propelled-by-china-demand-idUKL8N1P45NW
lower 48 production down 293 klbs/day in the latest weekly report. Any obvious reasons for this adjustment – was it the cold spell?
U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week Ending 1/5/2018
Domestic Production: 9,492 kb/day down -290 from last week, I guess due to the freezing weather.
but Line13, Adjustment: 481 kb/day up +155 from last week.
the confusion is getting complete now with the confusion about texas data. Next
months should be interesting
Cold weather? Stops coming out of the ground, and through pipelines due to cold weather? Maybe in Alaska, if the heaters don’t work.
We can eliminate Permian and Eagle Ford, because it was far from cold stopping production, drilling or completions. Doubt 60 to 70 degrees F qualifies as cold weather. They would have completely shut down production in the Bakken. It was cold, but I doubt cold enough to freeze all the pipelines, according to weather history of Bismarck.
EIA Re-benchmarking US oil production: +50 kb/day
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Production Re-benchmarking Notice. This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that raised estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is roughly 0.5% of this week’s estimated production total. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
Giggle, and that means what? This is the new estimate? Or, they adjusted this week, only, to make up for past sins? According to my understanding of the definition of benchmark, this is the revised total to add to going forward.
If his estimate is close on the Permian, it will make a lot of people look, well, stupid. Have my doubts about it, too. However, one of his points was too generalized in stating “tight oil” is API gravity of 40 to 50, which is not true of the “oil window” for the Eagle Ford. More like 32 to 35. But, he very nicely made the EIA look like the dull tool in the shed.
US ending stocks, week ending January 5th
Crude oil down approx -5 million barrels
Oil products up approx +12 million barrels
Overall total, up approx 7 million barrels
Chart of highs and lows on Twitter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTNFAicWkAA2Ov6.jpg
Oil production fell in December to one of its lowest points in three decades, further depriving the cash-strapped country of its only major source of revenue and adding to the suffering of its people.
Venezuela produced 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, according to S&P Global Platts, which polled industry officials, traders and analysts and reviewed proprietary shipping data.
That’s the lowest since 2002, when a failed coup temporarily took hold of the government-run oil company, PDVSA.
SNIP Other than that, oil production is the lowest in 28 years. It’s down 27% just since 2014, when the country’s economic crisis took hold, according to OPEC and S&P figures.
But Wall Street is starting to sour on Venezuela’s lucrative bonds. PDVSA’s bond maturing in 2022 is trading at 25 cents on the dollar, down from 48 cents in early November, according to MarketAxess BondTicker.
What will a total Venezuelan collapse mean for their oil production?
To me this does not seem like a Libya type situation where some political stability could quickly lead to an oil production resurrection. Instead it is a slow decay of the necessary physical and human capital to have a viable national oil company. They have squandered also their reputation to ever borrow again in the medium term future. They will be down and out for a long time.
Libya and Nigeria are pure speculation, but Venezuela is spinning around the drain.
Also: China, and most other Asia-Pacific producers, is in decline which is likely to accelerate this year; Colombia is in decline and the rebels blew up their favourite pipeline today, immediately the cease fire ended; Mexico could easily drop over 300 kbpd this year as KMZ comes off plateau; Oman may be in decline which is masked by their NOPEC cuts, because they have used so much EOR on old, heavy fields early decline might be quite fast; Russia maintained production through a lot of projects ramping up to combat decline in their mature giant fields – those start-ups will be flattening off through the end of this year, but the declines won’t. Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan will increase this year but might do well just to hold plateau next. Nigeria should increase this year with Egina, I don’t know why they say it might decline except through sabotage, but next year a lot of their big FPSOs might be in accelerating decline. Apart from Venezuela the world oil supply availability is pretty high at the moment and with very low spare capacity – therefore all the risk is on the downside.
BEIJING, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Output at the Daqing oil field, China’s largest, fell 7 percent in 2017 compared to 2016, as operator PetroChina scaled back production because of high costs in the aging field despite rising global oil prices. https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1P618Y
The oil price run continues.
I wonder how many companies hedged a significant amount of production at lower prices? Hopefully they used collars and not SWAPS.
What a volatile price for this commodity, which has fairly inelastic demand!
If we run back over $100 again, the regulars here need to say, “Shallow, get out while the getting is good!” Repeatedly.
Might keep a few wells. Don’t think I’ll give up the one well lease that has LOE of $4 or the two well lease with LOE of $6. I can then say I am more low cost than Saudi AND Pioneer Natural Resources, USA!!
This is crazy. $99.25 average price in 6/14. $25 average price 2/16. 6/17 average price $40.71. Now today we will be above $60 in the field for the first time since 11/14.
Crazy Type A traders!
I don’t see anything on the supply side that will stop the price keeping on rising until maybe Saudi’s Khurais expansion comes on line in May. OPEC are saying they aren’t going to respond to short term fluctuations, I think that could be interpreted as they can’t respond at the moment. US LTO might be able to ramp up but I’d think even that would take six months and I’d expect even their gung-ho CEOs to be. bit wary of getting burned (and they increasingly seem to be under the whip hand of the investors). There’s about 1 mmbpd due in Brazil with 6 or 7 new FPSOs, but I’m not sure of the timing, plus Kashagan, Big Foot and Egina (summing to about 500 kbpd but all I think due late in the year).
January is normally fairly low demand when the gasoline and diesel stores get replenished a bit, so things could go really bonkers in a few weeks if demand picks up again – and following that we get the ME A/C season starting. The EIA US reserve numbers are due this month (a few weeks late) – I wouldn’t be surprised if they show a bit of a drop overall and also a very low overall discovery rate for 2016, that might give prices another kick, although maybe too long term thinking for most traders.
Oh No! This exactly not the kind of news Trump will want to hear! Gasoline and other fuel prices rising when regulations have been eased, areas have been opened up and the free market is supposedly in charge? Who’s he gonna blame?
Maybe they eased restrictions because they knew what is coming. Though I think Trump is too dumb for any such strategy, maybe some of the government aren’t (I think his policy depends a) on undoing anything Obama made a particular point of; and b) doing whatever was suggested by the last person he spoke to before making a decision).
Regular readers of this site should not be surprised if the run up goes higher and last for a while. It might take a while for an adequate response to come from the producers. Reports on this site have been pointing to lower supplies for sometime. Maybe the markets are just seeing what has been talked about here all along.
2018-01-12 – Platts – Estimates for OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity
The US Energy Information Administration, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, estimated that OPEC’s “surplus crude oil production capacity” – barrels that member countries have voluntarily kept in the ground but could bring online within 30 days and sustain for at least 90 days — stood at 2.11 million b/d as of December, all of it in the Middle East.
The International Energy Agency has a higher estimate, at 3.41 million b/d as of November. Of that, 2.23 million b/d is in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader whose energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, has pledged to maintain output discipline while the production cut agreement remains in effect through 2018.
Much of the rest of the IEA’s estimate of spare capacity rests in Saudi Arabia’s close Gulf allies, including Kuwait (230,000 b/d) and the UAE (300,000 b/d). https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-opecs-venezuela-africa-woes-could-give-26869260
Platts chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTU36aAXcAAY7NL.jpg
Kuwait increasing condensate production (condensate isn’t included in the quota agreement)
2018-01-12 – Argusmedia – Kuwait brings on new production unit at the Jurassic gas project with a capacity of 100m ft3/d of gas and 40k b/day super light oil. 2 similar units expected online in 2Q18 bringing total Jurassic output to 500m ft3/d gas and 200k b/day oil.
2018-01-11 – Bloomberg – Kazakhstan Production Outlook
Kazakhstan’s economy minister on Thursday said the country’s total oil production climbed 10.5 percent to 86.2 million metric tons in 2017 from the year before (A record high).
Kazakhstan plans to increase production to 87 million tons this year, the Astana-based Energy Ministry said in emailed reply to questions. That equates to about 1.81 million barrels a day compared with a target level of 1.74 million barrels agreed in the deal with OPEC. The country “was striving to fulfill” its obligations since the accord began last January, the ministry said.
Kazakhstan intends to continue working with OPEC and its allies “taking into account contractual obligations to partners — investors working at large oil and gas developments.”
Kashagan — run by companies including Eni SpA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. — is set to boost output above 300,000 barrels a day this year, Energy Ministry officials said in 2017. That compares with production of about 200,000 barrels a day in October. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/kazakhstan-overtakes-iraq-as-opec-pact-s-biggest-over-producer
Chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTUvQxnXkAAtWJV.jpg
$70 Brent seems to be high enough for some producers
Lukoil president Vagit Alekperov says he would favour Russia withdrawing from the production restraint deal with Opec if crude prices remain at $70/bl for six months
Lukoil Sees 2018 Oil Output Flat After Drop to 1.8m B/day Last Year
Arctic Carbon Dioxide absorption changes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOLKXIIItfg&index=48&list=PL7Ihm2Mh3MZ6v9SPd0bLgaAyUS2hF5uD4
How did we come to be? Here is great AGU 2017 seminar on what is probably the primordial celestial accident that finally unleashed our ancestors to become diverse and dominate in the world.
Chicxulub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCJEU6PBd3M
Of course the Chicxulub event might have just been the final cause for extinction of the dinosaurs. That needs much further research.
https://www.livescience.com/26933-chicxulub-cosmic-impact-dinosaurs.html
Apologies, looks like I saw “open thread” and put these in the wrong place.
Big drops in crude and gasoline storage, but a big rise in distillate. I’m not sure I fully believe the week to week changes – they bounce around more than I would think possible given they depend on producers, shippers and refiners – but I think the overall combined trends are representative. Anybody know how EIA actually get the numbers (some form I’d imagine and not always completed by all parties).
Sorry – gasoline was an increase, the refineries must have been going flat out.
Every article on oil prices in the last several months says the ONLY downside is US shale.
Do the larger US shale companies pay attention to supply/demand dynamics at all? At current prices most can show positive EPS, assuming service costs do not surge too much?
For example, auto manufacturers do not produce the maximum vehicles possible. They pay attention to supply and demand. Almost every single manufacturer tries to forecast demand for its product.
Even farmers try to grow what crops are in most demand and raise what livestock is most in demand.
We have not drilled a well in over 3 years due to lack of oil demand, our production has fallen.
So, we will see.
Shallow, here you go: https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2018/01/04/revenge-of-the-oil-services-sector-in-2018/#25e1060569e9 …maybe this, rising interest rates, and fresh water issues in 2018 in arid West Texas will slow the bastards down a little and help give us some price stability.
“Rystad Energy is even bullish on American oil. The Norwegian firm sees U.S. crude output hitting 11 million barrels per day by December, narrowly surpassing global leader Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia.”
http://peakoil.com/production/america-could-become-oil-king-of-the-world-in-2018
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/investing/oil-us-russia-saudi-arabia-shale/index.html
y MAD MAD MAD Mad 2018 world. Just drive down and dig it up, dig it all up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w00Kab17aeI
Absolute poppycock! US output will do good to get to the level that EIA is currently reporting, about 9.75 by the end of 2018. Mike’s post explains why. 11 million barrels a day,? Man, that is some potent stuff they are smoking.
Hi Guym,
My Guess is that the US C+C monthly output may reach 10.2 Mb/d by November 2018 (the peak is likely between July and November 2018). I agree the 11 Mb/d estimate is too high.
Your in line with EIA estimates.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/A-17-Billion-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-To-Ease-The-Permian-Glut.html
In addition to a dearth of frac crews, drivers, and other support, the lack of gas line infrastructure will slow completions for awhile.
yes, but in those industries the compensation packages of management are based on profits. If they were based on production grow (as it is with shale), you could bet that they would produce flat out as well, especially if they get free fincancing from wall street.
shallow sand,
>Do the larger US shale companies pay attention to supply/demand dynamics at all?
>At current prices most can show positive EPS, assuming service costs do not surge too much?
This might be a wrong question. The right question IMHO is: “To what extent shale companies are just prostitutes of Wall Street and to what extent they are independent oil production companies? ”
What if the key role for such companies is to be a part of “price crasher” mechanism (along with “naked shorts” and similar financial chicanery) ?
I believe that with the shale boom it is Wall Street that obtained mechanism using which they can dictate oil prices.
Not Saudies or OPEC in general but Wall Street titans are now in the driving seat, although OPEC and Russia are fighting back by limiting production.
And Wall Street is not shy to step on the throat of “conventional” oil producers and force them to produce with no or even negative margins because of the specific of oil industry.
When you gets so much money on such lenient conditions something is fishy… This dual production mode (oil plus junk bonds and evergreen loans) looks to me just a variable of “subprime housing boom” on a new level.
The shale oil industry is NOT profitable. It never has been and in general terms it will not be in 2018 either. There has always been something fishy about its funding, particularly when wankers like this guy can make $16M a year in compensation, while his company looses money year over year for stock holders. Clearly, however, it is not his fault his company can’t be profitable and it is not their fault they are “forced” to borrow all that money…
https://heisenbergreport.com/2017/07/08/anadarkos-al-walker-says-us-shale-is-an-alcoholic-and-investors-are-a-problem/
There has been talk of higher interest rates for 10 yrs.
The US debt is $20 Trillion. 1% rise in rates would be $200 billion that must be serviced. US deficit this year will be almost 500B. 1% rise would be about 50% of the deficit. 2% doubles it.
Seems easier to just not let them rise.
Carrying over from islandboy’s EIA thread:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/01/trump-proposes-vast-expansion-offshore-drilling
From post above:
TRUMP PROPOSES VAST EXPANSION OF OFFSHORE DRILLING
(Zinke) “This is a start on looking at American energy dominance,”
Regardless of emotional reaction to this announcement, I am skeptical of its viability.
My skeptical mind tells me, when all else fails, look at the numbers. The numbers per MMS chart on Wikipedia:
Undiscovered technically-recoverable oil resources on the outer continental shelf, 2006:
Washington/Oregon – 0.4Bbo
Nor Cal – 2.08 Bbo
Central Cal – 2.31 Bbo
So Cal – 5.74 Bbo
All Atlantic + east FL – 3.84 Bbo
GOM – 44.92 Bbo
North Slope – 23.6 Bbo
Alaska less NS – 3.0 Bbo
Total 85.88 Bbo
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/758Syms2006OCSMapWithPlanni.png
I conclude that most of the “new” oil unleashed by this stunning decision is in the GOM and and the North slope, both of which are well-known by the industry and which have been open to Federal leases in the past. After Shell’s bad experience, oil will take a much higher price to get any bids for the NS and for the GOM, this is just BAU. The Atlantic and Pacific Coasts don’t have enough resource to be worth exploring, much less leasing.
OK, there are some sharp oil people here on the forum and I’m just a dumb HVAC engineer. Help me. Am I missing something? Are they actually going for the natural gas, and is it worth going after?
Either Trump and his energy folks are so determined to stick it to environmentalists that they are willing to hurt the industries they claim to help, or they know this won’t amount to anything but it will impress their hardcore supporters.
I sincerely doubt most states will cooperate with allowing all the shoreline and shallow water infrastructure needed to replicate the GOM.
Can anyone see FL allow pipelines running to tank farms located on the shoreline?
I understand the states control from the shore to 3 miles out.
If I am wrong, please point out how.
Shallow, you aren’t kidding about these reckless frackers:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/367780-michael-moore-says-hes-going-to-frack-off-coast-near-mar-a-lago
I believe that is a good summary HVAC, as is Boomers suggestion that this offshore development legislation is cursory and an otherwise meaningless gesture made toward an agenda that involves eliminating regulations for the oil and gas industry and “unleashing” America’s energy might on the rest of the world.
Always skeptical of “technical recoverable guesses,” my suggestion is to focus on product prices instead and the current reduced level of activity in the GOM. Oil prices are volatile because of the fiscally irresponsible, short investment nature of the shale oil industry and offshore development takes years and years to bring to market. There is natural gas coming out of our ears at the moment because of the shale phenomena; the price is tanking back to the mid $2’s and there is no place to put anymore gas.
This is another nail in this administrations coffin, from my conservative perspective. It is enraging the environmental left and will help assure the biggest Democratic turnout in history in 3 years. Then, much like Trump turned over Obama’s legislation regarding offshore drilling, this one will be turned over as well. I don’t think a 3 year time frame and price volatility gives the offshore industry enough time to do anything with this, personally. Its fluff.
Looks like the off-shore drilling thing may have just been a political stunt. If you are a Republican and you ask Trump nicely, he’ll exclude your state.
It also helps if he has a golf club by the water.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/09/florida-senate-scott-trump-oil-drilling-333144?cmpid=sf
Alberta Canada – Total Production (crude oil + condensates + upgraded bitumen + bitumen)
November at 3,412 kb/day, up +304 m/m. Average production in 2017 to November, up +250 kb/day over 2016 full year.
Unexpected cargo? A million barrel of NG Condensate in a Tanker? Still afloat and burning Sunday morning 30+ missing. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-07/iranian-oil-tanker-bursts-flames-after-colliding-chinese-ship-near-south-korea?page=1
Messy— but this is late stage capitalism.
India consumption growth. BP apparently did a mid year (as in Dec, their bible comes out Junes) look at India and project 4.2%/yr for oil out to 2035.
That’s roughly a double. That would put them at 9 mbpd.
Worth nothing 4.2% would be substantially below recent growth rates of 7+%.
It’s an all liquids thing. They run vehicles on LPG.
EIA STEO – January 9, 2018 – US crude oil production estimate for December revised up by +190kb/day versus last months estimate…
EIA: This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2019
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and is estimated to have averaged 9.9 million b/d in December. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts production to increase to an average of 10.8 million b/d in 2019 and to surpass 11 million b/d in November 2019.
Link https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
US oil production – comparing the 914 Survey and various STEO forecasts
I don´t think the 2018 increase in US production as forecasted by EIA is realistic. Completions are ramped up in Permian and Bakken. Eagle Ford looks like a dead fish when it comes to growth again. And several companies say ramping up further is difficult because of worker and equipment shortages for fracking. A lot of folks will have others views on this, but this is how I see it.
I don’t have any insights. I guess that the latest increase in the STEO production forecast is due to the increase in the price of WTI?
News articles suggest that there are at least a few more years worth of sweet spots in the Permian, maybe that’s what the forecast relies on?
I’m still waiting to see how the increasing gap between the EIA and the TexasRRC production figures resolves?
My guess is the EIA will revise its TX C+C estimates lower for Oct 2017 by about 100 kb/d, probably this wont happen until Sept 2018. The best estimate is the drilling info estimate, but you have to go back to about July 2017 for a good estimate (the most recent two months reported, Aug and Sept 2017, are incomplete and will be revised higher in future months).
Just have to see how the lunacy plays out.
EIA just adjusted lower 48 production estimate in their weekly report to 8 979 kbd from 9 272 kbd, -293 kbd change.
Now that is the adjustment that was called for!
Agree, just about right. No explanation, anywhere, that I can see. Market has not responded to it, yet. Really screws up their short term energy report.
Could the adjusted lower 48 production estimate be do to the most recent blast of artic air shutting in production?
Analysis: Venezuela’s oil production plummets amid chaos and industry defections
London (Platts)–9 Jan 2018
Einstein Millan, an independent Venezuela-based analyst who formerly worked for PDVSA, estimated that the company would need 100 to 110 active rigs to reverse its production decline
The rig pullback and accelerating field decline rates will cause Venezuelan oil production to fall by another 300,000 to 400,000 b/d in 2018, analysts with Washington-based Rapidan Energy forecast.
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-venezuelas-oil-production-plummets-amid-26867944
chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTHb04WW4AAct9f.jpg
Very recently I have read articles about water supply issues in North Dakota, Colorado, and Texas. Deciding whether cities, agriculture, or frackers are going to get the necessary water is being discussed.
Some people in this forum believe governments will find a way to develop and fund oil production because “we’ve got to have oil.”
But we also have to have water. Water is more basic than oil, so will declining supplies of water be a wake-up call for citizens if economics and decline rates don’t kill fracking first?
All the water used for fracking combined for the next 50 years is a percentage of the water wasted every year growing cotton in west Texas.
Water isn’t the issue.
Timthetiny,
Correct.
Agriculture is the big user of water in Texas, not fracking. That said, I agree with Mike on how stupid the shale industry so-called business model is.
According to this article people are growing cotton without irrigation—just rainfall.
https://www.texasobserver.org/big-spring-vs-big-oil/
This suggests a fight in Texas.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/As-the-oil-patch-demands-more-water-West-Texas-11724100.php
Boomer II,’
Frackers can’t just seize water or pump out rivers and lakes. They have to deal with whoever has the water rights, and whoever has the water rights can say No.
That’s what I am saying. Will people say no to frackers over water?
well now, since we all know I am the kind of guy who take the time to say “i told you so” some of you boys with so much time on your hands you have noting better to do then complain, might search for my oil price prediction posted here a few months back. Now it’s not going to be perfect, but i will damn sure chalk it up as a win? and let’s give Dennis a thumbs up, a blind pig finds a acorn every now and then? and the reason for the smily face, i actually put my money where my big fat mouth is.
TT. Are you hedging production?
We have been following this sudden spike, trying to decide if we should buy some puts. The premium quotes per contract are still pretty expensive. Seeing $4 barrel range for puts near the strip.
Hedging is tough if just playing the market, at least for me.
Project hedges were not as tough, but when we were doing them $1-1.50 per barrel was the price. Plus, mentally for me a project hedge is easier. I would just figure that into the cost of the new project. Part of CAPEX Buy a lease for $300K, pay another $20,000 for the puts, so the lease cost $320K.
Now, mentally I view the hedging as an expense, which is tougher. I know that may seem strange, but is the way I think about it.
Hi Shallow sand,
It depends on what you expect the future price will be, what is your expectation for the future price of oil? That’s where I would start.
“One of the best ways we strengthen communities is by providing high-paying careers. Average pay in the natural gas and oil industry is nearly $50,000 higher than the U.S. average salary. The energy industry offers life-changing careers that lead to thriving communities and help to address broader societal challenges.”
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2018/1/9/apis-jack-gerard-delivers-2018-state-of-american-energy-speech
now dennis who is it that is for all folks doing well, it ain’t frekin Mike, his political and economic model is Venezuela.
TT.
Why do you have to disparage Mike?
Mike is a conservative and Republican, but just because he doesn’t mindlessly spew right wing propaganda, you blast him.
Keep in mind those energy jobs include refinery and pipleline jobs, which are much more favorable in terms of pay, benefits, hours and work conditions, than most upstream blue collar jobs. They are much more stable jobs.
Here, where I live, the highest paying jobs are in the refinery, followed by the pipeline. No one goes from either back into upstream, but the opposite is very common.
Neither the refinery nor the pipeline layoff for economic reasons., at least they have not in the 30+ years I have been paying attention. Upstream was a bloodbath in 2015 and 2016.
A refinery worker with more than five years on the job makes $100K+, plus benefits. A pipeliner with more than five years experience makes almost as much. Very few upstream workers in the stripper fields are making more than $60K, with scant benefits. I assume things are much better in the shale patch, but not good enough for anyone at the refinery to take a transfer from downstream to upstream, same with the pipeline.
I guess the primary reason I am a skeptic of yours is the political agenda you espouse, which seems to be strictly to the platform. Most astute businessmen and women I know are much more nuanced.
For example, Mike blasts shale because its overproduction without regard to profit or anything else led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of UPSTREAM jobs throughout the world, including a large percentage in the US. But, management are generally controlled by Wall Street. Wall Street has changed the narrative, and suddenly Oil is now over $60.
The political media on both sides are completely out of control. The extremes rule both parties. It is mind numbing. The masses MUST resume voting in primaries if we are ever going to get back to some sanity.
Do you hold any beliefs that are cotrary to the Republican platoform?
I was raised a conservative Democrat, but feel the National Party has veered too far left. Yet the R’s are too far right too. I really don’t feel I belong either place.
I really admire Obama as a person not because of his policies, because I disagreed with many and could not stand him calling percentage depletion as a “big oil” tax break. I admire him because he has been married to one woman, like me, and despite being busier than heck, seemed to really care about raising his daughters the right way.
Trump, I agree with on some policies, disagree with him on others. But I can’t stand him given his low moral standards and constant tweeting. Married three times, threw the first two away when they got too old. Lies like there is no tomorrow. I am not aware of a bigger blowhard.
But, Trump might save our oil production from the extreme enviro folks who would make is plug out the field in a NY minute. So, it is complicated.
So, am I reading you wrong, or are you just here to push the Republican platform? Any nuance in your views?
Thank you, Shallow. Tee tee and I are OK now, in a much better place with each other, a mutual understanding, if you will. He knows I think he is stupid and does not jack shit about the oil business.
Rigzone and others suggest that the worldwide oil and gas industry lost over 500,000 jobs since 2014 that have not been replaced, including 122,000 in the American oil and gas industry, including in the Appalachian Rising Basin where gas prices have fallen almost a dollar an MMBTU in a few months and they too can’t keep from shooting themselves in the kneecaps with overleveraged, unpaid oversupply.
I was in Venezuela not long ago, as you know, and things are very bad there. The people of Venezuela did not vote for their predicament; they have had little say about it for a long time. It is very bad there. You have to be a heartless prick to use Venezuela as a political tool, to make a stupid point about oil and gas jobs. Gawd.
And as to America’s energy policies and our hydrocarbon leadership at the moment, try this on for size. Indeed as a conservative Republican it is embarrassing, to say the least: https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2018/01/09/Cartoon-Of-the-Week
Several industries are moderately desperate for workers in the western Pennsylvania area.
There are two week introduction courses being offered by groups who then steer applicants to waiting employers.
I think it may be a pre screening process to determine who can show up 10 business days in a row and thence, demonstrate reliability and determination.
Pittsburgh airport is starting a $1 billion dollar renovation.
Not a dime of the $83 billion Chinese companies announced they will invest in West Virginia alone has yet been spent, but the anticipation is already being felt.
The plans to launch massive NGL storage in the area are taking off and should affect proposals for another 2 or more crackers.
The upstream in the Appalachian Basin has become so efficient that the drilling alone may not be the focus of large employment numbers, but everything downstream – in a wide array of industries – has decades of growth in the offing.
Although the comment has been removed that prompted this current posting by me, I will briefly address the specific economic impacts that have, literally, global implications that are both large – paradigm changing, actually – and still in the very early stages …
Start with the recently re-opened steel mill in Mingo Junction, Ohio.
While it employed thousands back in the ’70s, it shut down a decade back..
One year ago, new owners restarted production, have about 100 high paid employees, and expect to continue to expand.
Over in Flint Michigan, a multi billion dollar greenfield steel mill is being planned.
Look, please, at Foxconn’s project in Wisconsin which expects to employ 1,000 employees this year at salaries starting at $50,000/yr with bennies.
The $10 billion dollar manufacturing plant will eventually hire 13,000 workers when it’s complete in 5 years.
The fears of a looming “De-industrialization” of Australia are not unfounded as long term 8 cents per kilowatt hour for heavy power users may prove too much to ignore, all the more so if competitors take advantage of the situation.
Indeed, long term, rock bottom pricing, highly reliable electricity sourcing is a different direction entirely than other regions around the world project for their native industries.
The outlook for decades to come in the Appalachian Basin is for much higher output for the methane which provides utility-scale heat and cheap fuel for CCGT power plants – 24 of which are being built or planned in Pennsylvania and Ohio alone.
The ethane and propane coming from the area will be cracked and turned into feedstock for plants such as Foxconn’s and countless other Asian and European manufacturers looking to relocate.
Some of the ethylene and propylene, or liquefied ethane and propane, is currently being shipped around the world.
The 5 Bcf first year production from northeast Pennsylvania wells is becoming somewhat routine starting 2017.
If that number does not resonate, picture the energy equivalent of almost 1 million barrels of oil.
The number of 15,000 to 17,000 foot long laterals will increase dramatically this year, with Eclipse having drilled a 20,800 footer in Ohio in 13 days.
The sub $4 mmbtu HH may be here for quite some time.
Sorry, folks.
This site has been a nexus for anti fossil fuel sentiment, coupled with anti capitalist and even a subdued antipathy towards Americans.
The individuals, countries, and companies within the global hydrocarbon industry have been severely, negatively impacted by the onslaught of production brought about by this so called Shale Revolution.
Genie ain’t goin’ back inta da bottle.
China, Argentina, Russia, Mexico several European countries are in various stages of heading down this path.
Just the way it is.
That’s nice. Can you export this cheap gas to Europe, too?
Our reserves in the North Sea are almost depleted, and russian gas is expensive.
Then even the enviromentalist can shut down the coal power plants and replace them with cheap gas plants.
There is a lot of demand of cheap gas world wide – how big are your reserves?
Eulenspeigel
Don’t know if you saw that century old cathedral near Cologne was just demolished for the open pit lignite mine.
Lights must stay on. Houses gotta stay warm.
The US Department of Energy just released a report that projects almost 16 Trillion cubic feet a year production from the Appalachian Basin in 30 years, double the current figure.
If the recent, extensive report on the Utica proves accurate, 800 Tcf will come from Da Ute, comparable, they said, to the Marcellus.
Using 1,600 Tcf as a working figure, that is 200 years worth of production at today’s rate.
Half that if the annual output goes to 16 Tcf/year.
Lotta gas.
The cost of Yamal was about $27 billion for 16 million tons per year.
The Gladstone project in Queensland cost about $60 billion for about 26 mtpa.
If the ambitious project from Tellurian in Louisiana comes in as planned, it will cost $16 billion and produce 27 mtpa.
Big, big drop in cost.
More is coming, however, via ships, especially from the Norwegian outfit Golar who is teaming up with a company Delfin, to place 4 ship style liquification plants – FLNGs – at a cost in the $5/6 billion range for 13 mtpa.
I believe a few years out, natgas will start to encroach upon oil for more uses.
The lignite mining here is for pure electricity generation – and heating with eletricity is rare in Germany due to high taxes on electricity.
So this lignite could be substituted with gas – only russion gas is expensive, and US gas still does not arrive here in quantity.
I think you could empty your 200 years storage in less than 50 years when you can sell it world wide, and stay at low prices.
LNG exports will ramp up dramatically within 5 years, along with LPG (Propane – already 1 million bbld) and both piped and shipped ethane.
Quick note regarding employment/unemployment in oil field related industries …
Next Thursday, at the Mountain Valley Community College near Zanesville, Ohio, Halliburton is having a job fair for entry level frac crews positions
Starting pay $15/hr, 14 on 7 off, housing provided and per diem meals.
Experienced folks with CDL start higher .
That jargon simply means any – preferably younger – ambitious person who wants an entry level position that could yield $100k+ in the not-too-distant future, here’s your chance.
In a followup, a just released paper from the US Northeast Petrochemical Industry outlines how the hundreds of billions in commerce, the tens of billions in tax revenue, and the quarter of a million jobs that can be expected in this area as infrastructure is built, workforce is recruited and trained, and ongoing production of hydrocarbons are all realized.
People who – for a variety of reasons – do not wish these events to unfold will be disappointed as they are already underway.
Those whose self interests are threatened by these changes will increasingly be recognized as obstructionist and self directed individuals/companies/countries whose primary motivation is to prevent the immanent resurgence of this region.
“That jargon simply means any – preferably younger – ambitious person who wants an entry level position that could yield $100k+ in the not-too-distant future, here’s your chance.’
…and who has no long term ambitions to stay in the oil and gas industry and is out to make a quick buck. The shale gas industry, like the shale oil industry, is fraught with employment instability because none of those guys running that industry are fiscally responsible and none of them give a rats ass about their employees. Hire on with us: two years on, 3 years off. Helluva deal.
“Those whose self interests are threatened by these changes will increasingly be recognized as obstructionist and self directed individuals/companies/countries whose primary motivation is to prevent the immanent resurgence of this region.”
So, for those of us who are concerned about the long term sustainability of the shale gas industry in America, because of its debt and unprofitability, who disagree with exporting our last remaining hydrocarbon resources away in the form of LNG, for nothing, who know we are going to need it back in a few years, who don’t want their kids saddled with debt, are…obstructionists? Good grief, Coffee. The opposite of that is that you are only a good American if you believe in borrowing money and not paying it back?
Who feels “threatened” by not owning $2.3 billion of long term debt (Range) or $3.8 billion (EQT)?
Not me, man. Not anybody in their right mind who is relying on shale gas decline to pay that debt back, who has something to…lose. Do you have anything to lose if the shale gas industry fails, again, Coffee?
“Quick note regarding employment/unemployment in oil field related industries …
Next Thursday, at the Mountain Valley Community College near Zanesville, Ohio, Halliburton is having a job fair for entry level frac crews positions
Starting pay $15/hr, 14 on 7 off, housing provided and per diem meals.”
That’s not very much. Granted housing and meals are included, but $15 an hour is the norm in a lot of entry level jobs.
I removed it, in an effort to be more civil to you, though I trust you won’t forget what it said. Your flowery rhetoric about the wonders of the shale revolution always ignore the business aspects of it, well economics and the financial condition of private enterprise engaged in this miracle; you willingly admit that. It is sufficient for you, and many others, that it simply exists. How it exists is unimportant. You are assured of its continued existence for decades (centuries, you’ve once said) because “capitalism” in America is now totally dependent on credit and the debt we leave our children to cope with in the future is secondary to the here and now.
“…individuals, countries, and companies within the global hydrocarbon industry have been severely, negatively impacted by the onslaught of production brought about by this so called Shale Revolution.” Indeed. The American shale revolution has simply outspent the entire rest of the world. The shale oil industry alone has accumulated $280,000,000,000 of outstanding debt doing so. The shale gas industry probably as much. In other words, neither entity has paid for depleted assets that it drilled eight years ago. In the long run, that is not good for America.
Hi Mike,
I agree, it seems the natural gas wells in the Appalachian basin would not be very profitable.
https://www.marcellusgas.org/pricing/
According to site above (not sure if it is reliable), in Oct 2017 Wellhead prices in Pennsylvania were $1.54/ MCF.
The Average Marcellus and Utica well which started producing in 2016 did indeed have over 2 BCF of cumulative output, this would be equivalent to 400,000 bo in energy terms. But let’s do it in revenue terms.
2 BCF@$2/MCF=$4 million (MCF is 1000 CF)
Let’s assume $50/b at wellhead for oil, so the revenue equivalent for oil output would be 4,000,000/50=80 kbo.
From a revenue perspective this is not impressive at all, especially considering they need to drill 15,000 to 20,000 foot laterals to accomplish it.
Are these companies profitable? I have not researched it, but my guess would either be no, or not very at $2/MCF.
It looks like overproduction hurts natural gas producers just as much as it does oil producers.
https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2017/12/20/marcellus-utica-update-through-september-2017/
Dennis.
I think Range Resources (RRC) is a major player in Appalachian Gas.
It’s share price is around $16, at an over ten year low. In 2013 it was trading in the $90s for awhile.
Interesting that coffee mentions Eclipse. Eclipse IPO at $25. It is now at $2.50.
The CEO of Eclipse was formerly the CEO of Rex Energy. Rex is now at $1.67 after a reverse split. So, reverse split adjusted, it is down from a high of $280 per share.
By the way, both Eclipse and Rex are in Raw Energy’s “Bottom of the Barrel” club on Seeking Alpha. I have sure learned a lot about bankruptcy from his articles.
Interesting thing is management always seems to make out like bandits in bankruptcy.
Now coffee and Texas Tea, is the fact that BK companies’ management gets sweet heart deals the kind of capitalism you like? I am not a fan of that, I must admit.
I recommend reading Raw Energy’s Seeking Alpha articles. Shocking how many firms went BK as a result of shale overproduction crashing oil and gas prices.
One can also look at Haynes & Boone Oil Patch BK monitor, which shows 134 BK upstream companies 1/1/15 – 10/31/17 and the Energy Service BK tracker, which shows 155 energy service company BK during the same time frame.
Now it appears OPEC and Russia, of all people, are riding to the rescue on oil. And yet shale will once again be cash flow negative in 2018.
Perverted capitalism if you ask me.
Overproduction of shale gas from the App Basin has killed that site specific faction of the domestic oil and natural gas industry. Nobody has made money in that play, not ENOUGH money to get themselves out of debt. There have been some “monster” bankruptcies occur in the App Basin. You are correct, Dennis, the first five years of that play was developed at < $1 per MMBTU. It got a little better, now its going down hill again. There is gas coming out of our noses in America, so much of it they are flaring hundreds of millions of MCF's per day all over America. Forever wasted.
We must ask ourselves what exactly is the intent of a handful of commenters on Peak Oil Barrel that consistently wish to chastise people who disagree with them, who constantly cheerlead for a small portion of a great industry in spite of poor economic performance, obvious deceit regarding reserve reporting, in spite of massive amounts of debt. What is the point in the argument? To convince smart enough people that can add and subtract on their own that they are wrong? That America will be fine in the future. That it should ignore debt and just be happy that all those hydrocarbons are simply there?
Since when has lying and borrowing money you can’t pay back become some thing honorable in America, something to look up to, and embrace?
Here's the ultimate irony in these arguments in favor of unconventional shale development in America. The people that embrace it the most are the free enterprise forever, lets eliminate all regulations on the hydrocarbon industry, but not tax incentives, forever folks. The lets keep government small and out of our lives forever folks.
But the government is who is funding the shale phenomena with no to low interest stimulus. Without big government shale oil, nor shale gas, would not even exist.
The people that cheerlead for the shale phenomena are confused and arithmetic challenged. Take their comments for what they are. Self serving dribble. American business must make money to succeed, be it pizzas, or shale gas. Profit is the ultimate definition of capitalism in America. That is what makes America great.
Not debt. Debt is “perverted” capitalism, Shallow is spot on.
Mike. I know when you refer to “debt” what kind you are referring to.
Just to be clear, debt in and of itself is not bad. The problem is the “no consequences” debt.
If you or I had unfortunately bought s significant amount of oil production in 2014, and financed it all, and not been able to make the payments, neither of us could have done a “pre pack chapter 11” where we told the creditor to “screw off” while we got some “dip financing” from which we took a big bonus, plus issued ourselves some shares of our reorganized company.
Most likely our assets would have been sold, and if that didn’t pay off the balance, and if we were required to do a personal guarantee, we would be ponying up our personal assets.
Now, I am not advocating personal liability necessarily for public Corp management with regard to debt. But why the rewards during BK? Why no salary cuts during times of distress?
Why should a shale CEO make $5 million in salary and benefits when his or her company just lost $3.00 per share for the year?
Debt is not perverted. Debt with no consequences is.
Bailout nation. $20 trillion of national debt and counting. Each party attacks the other about this debt, then conveniently ignores it when that party is in power. So I guess no surprise about the shale debacle.
I greatly underestimated how much money would be thrown into the furnace regarding shale. I admit it freely.
I agree.
Normal dept is necessary. I’m in the industry here in Germany, I have no mining/oil background since this doesn’t exsist in Germany any more besides a few coal mines.
Dept is fine if your ROI calculation is fine. There are lots of project we do in the industry that pay back in less than 1 year, most pay back in less than 3 years. Or they are necessary to keep up with the competition in quality or speed – then they are necessary anyhow.
Dept for paying dividends or stock buyback – that’s the perverted cheap money here with big DAX companies. The middle sized industry, the spine of the industry here, uses dept only as a tool – and that’s ok.
Yes, of course you are correct, Shallow. When I speak of debt within the shale industry I too am referring to debt without consequences. Debt is indeed necessary and a useful tool in any business model. I use it, everyone uses it. Most business use it. When managed properly it is imperative.
The hydrocarbon business however is not he same as other businesses that for instance will borrow money to build PP&E and that PP&E appreciates over time, as does the goodwill of the business. The shale business within the oil and gas industry is unique into itself because of high decline rates of its “product.” Its assets are constantly DEpreciating. Its debt must coincide with payout of the well, in my opinion. That has not been the case, of course, and corporations like Devon, or Chesapeake have not paid back the money it took to drill wells eight years ago. Imagine 25% of your revenue now going to simply pay interest on debt. In that case debt is not a tool, it is a burden, an anchor that never goes away, that prevents growth and profitability.
The debt of the shale industry is overlooked, I assume because of the importance of its product to society. Very few analysts that discuss the ‘resilience’ of the shale industry discuss where the money is coming from and the ramifications of that additional debt to the financial health of that faction of our industry.
As the end of the fossil fuel era approaches perhaps what we have left to extract is now so expensive, so unprofitable,so credit dependent that private enterprise simply cannot do it. Or that only the biggest of the big can do it.
Hi Texas Tea,
Mike is all for people doing well. Overproduction of oil and low profits leads to lower employment in the oil industry when prices crash.
Also a lot of oil companies going out of business does not help employment much and bankruptcy rates in the oil industry have been quite high in the oil industry from 2015 to 2017.
Most intelligent people realize that unregulated capitalism is not good for the average citizen, that’s a far cry from being a fan of a socialist dictator in South America.
Interesting to note that the basis for 30-39 API low sulfur crude in our area continues to improve.
I have read similar crudeis selling for a premium to Brent by over $4 per barrel. See article on Oilprice.com.
I’ve noticed WTI closed at $62.96 on Tuesday, a three year high. Any insights?
Anticipation of inventory draw downs
https://www.upi.com/Energy-News/2018/01/09/Oil-prices-high-on-expectations-of-US-inventory-drains/8801515507547/?utm_source=sec&utm_campaign=sl&utm_medium=1
API just announced their analysis of US drawdown … 11.19 million barrels.
Way high.
Iranian upheaval, already smacked down. Anticipation of retaliation likely within KSA. Eastern KSA is Shiite.
Had a talk with a KSA citizen about Qatar. That person’s impression of consensus is that . . . wording carefully here, the consensus attitude, not opinion, is a hope that the ruling family in Qatar will be removed by their own citizens. Not an induced insurrection. A spontaneous one.
Apparently there is no impression within KSA that the new Crown Prince will use military action to force Qatar to do anything.
There is also talk floating about that Bitcoin is affecting oil’s price. There is a convoluted rationale about the relative anonymity available with Bitcoin and somehow that is affecting price. The rationale is a certain amount of supply prefers Bitcoin and traditional cash buyers are forced to bid up.
2018-01-10 Reuters – India’s fuel demand rose 7.5 percent in December compared with the same month last year. Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled 17.39 million tonnes, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry showed.
3x free to read Argus news articles…
London, 9 January (Argus) — North Sea production is likely to remain relatively stable in 2018 but calls for changes to the benchmark are likely to grow
This stability has been driven by the regular start-up of new fields in the last few years, which has offset the declines recorded by the region’s mature assets. Production rates will benefit from the start-up of the Kraken, Maria, Catcher and Gina Krog fields in recent months, and 2018 should see the start-up of Liberator, Mariner and Harrier.
Forties production appears to be declining sharply as well, driven by a slowdown at the grade’s largest contributing field Buzzard. Forecasts from FPS operator Ineos suggest Forties production will average around 374,000 b/d in the first quarter, down from 440,000 b/d in the first three months of 2017. Buzzard production peaked at 218,000 b/d in 2009 but the field continued producing almost 200,000 b/d until 2013. Output has declined since then and that decline looks to be accelerating. In 2016, Buzzard output was 8pc lower than in the previous year, while in 2017 production was down a further 4pc even before the field was shut in on 11 December.
Ineos forecasts suggest first-quarter Buzzard production will decline by 20pc from the same period of 2017.
http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1604086
Washington, 10 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump’s administration has abruptly withdrawn offshore acreage around Florida from its proposal to open more federal waters to oil and gas leasing
“I support the governor’s position that Florida is unique and its coasts are heavily reliant on tourism as an economic driver,” Zinke said. “As a result, I am removing Florida from consideration for any new oil and gas platforms.”
http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1604562
Caracas, 8 January (Argus) — Venezuela lost an estimated 151,000 b/d of crude production in December, accelerating a collapse across all of state-owned PdV´s operating divisions, according to unofficial preliminary figures obtained from three PdV upstream executives.
Venezuela reported output declines of 130,000 b/d in November and 118,000 b/d in October 2017.
http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1603657
The big start up this year is Clair Ridge, and the big one last year was Glen Lyon FPSO – both BP and bigger than any of the others mentioned. Maybe they don’t include these as they might be considered brownfield redevelopment or extensions on existing fields. Buzzard water cut is going up about 2% (absolute) a month so it’s production could drop suddenly. Golden Eagle is also a fairly big producer and seeing increase in water cut.
Hi George
Liberator has not even secured funding yet so I am a bit sceptical about that one for 2018.
TexasRRC – 9th January 2018 – In December 2017, Commission staff processed 514 oil, 80 gas, 26 injection and three other completions compared to 430 oil, 93 gas, 20 injection and two other completions in December 2016. Total well completions processed for 2017 are 6,914; down from 10,468 recorded in 2016. http://www.rrc.texas.gov/all-news/010918a/
Completions Statistics for November 2017: 388 oil and 74 natural gas
Average number of oil well completions for the 12 months of 2017 was: 450
Average number of natural gas well completions for the 12 months of 2017 was: 85
Chinese oil import demand seen as strong in January…
LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – Shipments of West African oil to China are set to surge to a record in January, boosting overall fixtures heading east to their highest in at least 14 years, a Reuters survey of shipping fixtures and traders showed on Wednesday.
Energy Aspects said a large amount of destocking in the fourth quarter, which amounted to a total drawdown of some 40-60 million barrels in China, also prompted strong demand from the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-westafrica-exports/record-w-african-oil-sailing-east-propelled-by-china-demand-idUKL8N1P45NW
lower 48 production down 293 klbs/day in the latest weekly report. Any obvious reasons for this adjustment – was it the cold spell?
U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week Ending 1/5/2018
Domestic Production: 9,492 kb/day down -290 from last week, I guess due to the freezing weather.
but Line13, Adjustment: 481 kb/day up +155 from last week.
the confusion is getting complete now with the confusion about texas data. Next
months should be interesting
Cold weather? Stops coming out of the ground, and through pipelines due to cold weather? Maybe in Alaska, if the heaters don’t work.
We can eliminate Permian and Eagle Ford, because it was far from cold stopping production, drilling or completions. Doubt 60 to 70 degrees F qualifies as cold weather. They would have completely shut down production in the Bakken. It was cold, but I doubt cold enough to freeze all the pipelines, according to weather history of Bismarck.
EIA Re-benchmarking US oil production: +50 kb/day
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Production Re-benchmarking Notice. This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that raised estimated volumes by less than 50,000 barrels per day, which is roughly 0.5% of this week’s estimated production total.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
Giggle, and that means what? This is the new estimate? Or, they adjusted this week, only, to make up for past sins? According to my understanding of the definition of benchmark, this is the revised total to add to going forward.
Yes they’re saying more oil
New Podcast from Art.
http://www.artberman.com/energy-week-podcast-art-berman-us-shale-industry/
If his estimate is close on the Permian, it will make a lot of people look, well, stupid. Have my doubts about it, too. However, one of his points was too generalized in stating “tight oil” is API gravity of 40 to 50, which is not true of the “oil window” for the Eagle Ford. More like 32 to 35. But, he very nicely made the EIA look like the dull tool in the shed.
US ending stocks, week ending January 5th
Crude oil down approx -5 million barrels
Oil products up approx +12 million barrels
Overall total, up approx 7 million barrels
Chart of highs and lows on Twitter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTNFAicWkAA2Ov6.jpg
Venezuela is inching closer to collapse
Oil production fell in December to one of its lowest points in three decades, further depriving the cash-strapped country of its only major source of revenue and adding to the suffering of its people.
Venezuela produced 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, according to S&P Global Platts, which polled industry officials, traders and analysts and reviewed proprietary shipping data.
That’s the lowest since 2002, when a failed coup temporarily took hold of the government-run oil company, PDVSA.
SNIP
Other than that, oil production is the lowest in 28 years. It’s down 27% just since 2014, when the country’s economic crisis took hold, according to OPEC and S&P figures.
But Wall Street is starting to sour on Venezuela’s lucrative bonds. PDVSA’s bond maturing in 2022 is trading at 25 cents on the dollar, down from 48 cents in early November, according to MarketAxess BondTicker.
What will a total Venezuelan collapse mean for their oil production?
To me this does not seem like a Libya type situation where some political stability could quickly lead to an oil production resurrection. Instead it is a slow decay of the necessary physical and human capital to have a viable national oil company. They have squandered also their reputation to ever borrow again in the medium term future. They will be down and out for a long time.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/3-Million-Barrels-Per-Day-Could-Go-Offline-In-2018.html
Libya and Nigeria are pure speculation, but Venezuela is spinning around the drain.
Also: China, and most other Asia-Pacific producers, is in decline which is likely to accelerate this year; Colombia is in decline and the rebels blew up their favourite pipeline today, immediately the cease fire ended; Mexico could easily drop over 300 kbpd this year as KMZ comes off plateau; Oman may be in decline which is masked by their NOPEC cuts, because they have used so much EOR on old, heavy fields early decline might be quite fast; Russia maintained production through a lot of projects ramping up to combat decline in their mature giant fields – those start-ups will be flattening off through the end of this year, but the declines won’t. Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan will increase this year but might do well just to hold plateau next. Nigeria should increase this year with Egina, I don’t know why they say it might decline except through sabotage, but next year a lot of their big FPSOs might be in accelerating decline. Apart from Venezuela the world oil supply availability is pretty high at the moment and with very low spare capacity – therefore all the risk is on the downside.
BEIJING, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Output at the Daqing oil field, China’s largest, fell 7 percent in 2017 compared to 2016, as operator PetroChina scaled back production because of high costs in the aging field despite rising global oil prices.
https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N1P618Y
The oil price run continues.
I wonder how many companies hedged a significant amount of production at lower prices? Hopefully they used collars and not SWAPS.
What a volatile price for this commodity, which has fairly inelastic demand!
If we run back over $100 again, the regulars here need to say, “Shallow, get out while the getting is good!” Repeatedly.
Might keep a few wells. Don’t think I’ll give up the one well lease that has LOE of $4 or the two well lease with LOE of $6. I can then say I am more low cost than Saudi AND Pioneer Natural Resources, USA!!
This is crazy. $99.25 average price in 6/14. $25 average price 2/16. 6/17 average price $40.71. Now today we will be above $60 in the field for the first time since 11/14.
Crazy Type A traders!
I don’t see anything on the supply side that will stop the price keeping on rising until maybe Saudi’s Khurais expansion comes on line in May. OPEC are saying they aren’t going to respond to short term fluctuations, I think that could be interpreted as they can’t respond at the moment. US LTO might be able to ramp up but I’d think even that would take six months and I’d expect even their gung-ho CEOs to be. bit wary of getting burned (and they increasingly seem to be under the whip hand of the investors). There’s about 1 mmbpd due in Brazil with 6 or 7 new FPSOs, but I’m not sure of the timing, plus Kashagan, Big Foot and Egina (summing to about 500 kbpd but all I think due late in the year).
January is normally fairly low demand when the gasoline and diesel stores get replenished a bit, so things could go really bonkers in a few weeks if demand picks up again – and following that we get the ME A/C season starting. The EIA US reserve numbers are due this month (a few weeks late) – I wouldn’t be surprised if they show a bit of a drop overall and also a very low overall discovery rate for 2016, that might give prices another kick, although maybe too long term thinking for most traders.
Oh No! This exactly not the kind of news Trump will want to hear! Gasoline and other fuel prices rising when regulations have been eased, areas have been opened up and the free market is supposedly in charge? Who’s he gonna blame?
Maybe they eased restrictions because they knew what is coming. Though I think Trump is too dumb for any such strategy, maybe some of the government aren’t (I think his policy depends a) on undoing anything Obama made a particular point of; and b) doing whatever was suggested by the last person he spoke to before making a decision).
Regular readers of this site should not be surprised if the run up goes higher and last for a while. It might take a while for an adequate response to come from the producers. Reports on this site have been pointing to lower supplies for sometime. Maybe the markets are just seeing what has been talked about here all along.
An estimate through the looking glass:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34492
The world oil market seemed to tighten at the end of summer, both $WTI and US exports increasing from around that time.
U.S. may get first LNG import from Russia despite sanctions: report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-yamal-lng/u-s-may-get-first-lng-import-from-russia-despite-sanctions-report-idUSKBN1EY2HY
2018-01-12 – Platts – Estimates for OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity
The US Energy Information Administration, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, estimated that OPEC’s “surplus crude oil production capacity” – barrels that member countries have voluntarily kept in the ground but could bring online within 30 days and sustain for at least 90 days — stood at 2.11 million b/d as of December, all of it in the Middle East.
The International Energy Agency has a higher estimate, at 3.41 million b/d as of November. Of that, 2.23 million b/d is in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader whose energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, has pledged to maintain output discipline while the production cut agreement remains in effect through 2018.
Much of the rest of the IEA’s estimate of spare capacity rests in Saudi Arabia’s close Gulf allies, including Kuwait (230,000 b/d) and the UAE (300,000 b/d).
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/analysis-opecs-venezuela-africa-woes-could-give-26869260
Platts chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTU36aAXcAAY7NL.jpg
Kuwait increasing condensate production (condensate isn’t included in the quota agreement)
2018-01-12 – Argusmedia – Kuwait brings on new production unit at the Jurassic gas project with a capacity of 100m ft3/d of gas and 40k b/day super light oil. 2 similar units expected online in 2Q18 bringing total Jurassic output to 500m ft3/d gas and 200k b/day oil.
2018-01-11 – Bloomberg – Kazakhstan Production Outlook
Kazakhstan’s economy minister on Thursday said the country’s total oil production climbed 10.5 percent to 86.2 million metric tons in 2017 from the year before (A record high).
Kazakhstan plans to increase production to 87 million tons this year, the Astana-based Energy Ministry said in emailed reply to questions. That equates to about 1.81 million barrels a day compared with a target level of 1.74 million barrels agreed in the deal with OPEC. The country “was striving to fulfill” its obligations since the accord began last January, the ministry said.
Kazakhstan intends to continue working with OPEC and its allies “taking into account contractual obligations to partners — investors working at large oil and gas developments.”
Kashagan — run by companies including Eni SpA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. — is set to boost output above 300,000 barrels a day this year, Energy Ministry officials said in 2017. That compares with production of about 200,000 barrels a day in October.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/kazakhstan-overtakes-iraq-as-opec-pact-s-biggest-over-producer
Chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTUvQxnXkAAtWJV.jpg
World oil demand usually drops at this time of year – a drop in refinery margins in Asia to the lowest seasonal level in five years.
https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-oil/as-oil-hits-70-warning-lights-flash-up-in-asia-idUSL8N1P5158
2018-01-12 China’s crude oil import slowed to 8m b/d in December from 9m b/d. Refined petroleum exports hit a fresh record of 6.2m tons
Saxo Bank, chart on Twitter: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTUrPnzXkAEtXRQ.jpg
Reuters, Chinese products exports, chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTUunjCV4AELoPc.jpg
$70 Brent seems to be high enough for some producers
Lukoil president Vagit Alekperov says he would favour Russia withdrawing from the production restraint deal with Opec if crude prices remain at $70/bl for six months
Lukoil Sees 2018 Oil Output Flat After Drop to 1.8m B/day Last Year
STAVANGER, Norway, Jan 11 (Reuters) – Norwegian oil and gas investments will begin to rise in 2018 after falling for the last four years, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said on Thursday.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/norway-oil/norways-2022-oil-and-gas-output-forecast-close-to-record-high-npd-idUKO9N1NZ02D